Unstable Models: NOAA Substantially Cools Its December Mean Temperature Forecast For Europe

2°C downward correction

Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter.

The NOAA’s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier projection, it saw December in Europe coming in 1 to 2°C warmer than the long-term mean:

But using the latest available intimal conditions, the NOAA has a completely new mean temperature forecast for December 2023:

The December projection for Europe as whole comes in almost 2°C COOLER. That’s quite an impressive correction.

So unstable are models that attempt to look into the nea5r future of a chaotic system that they know far more little about than they like to make the public believe.

Hat-tip: SnowFan here. 

Currently the GFS foresees “extreme cold wave around St. Nicholas in Central Europe,” reports Snowfan.  “Now also the German DWD sees lots of snow. Analysis: With -20°C extreme frost on the Zugspitze and -27°C in NE Europe. ECMWF and GEM remain with plenty of snow in Germany at the beginning of December 2023. DWD: Snow low pressure “OLIVER” is on its way to Germany. ECMWF remains with early winter cold wave in Central Europe until well into December. NCEP remains with increasingly wintry cold in large parts of Europe.”

But, as the NOAA longer term weather forecasting has shown, there’s always a great amount of uncertainty. Anything under 5 days can be considered a forecast, and everything beyond 10 days is just weather speculation.

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