Scientists: Nearly 4 Decades Of Climate Model Failure Undermines Confidence In Future Predictions

IPCC models rooted in assumptions that we humans can and do control the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation with our daily-activity CO2 emissions have been wrong since the mid-1980s. Why should we still believe in them?

The latest IPCC report continues to say it is “very likely” the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), a fundamental climate parameter, will weaken (and unleash cooling, catastrophic storms, drought, floods) in the 21st century.

But, as the authors of a new study note, since the mid-1980s the 84 (CMIP5) and 56 (CMIP6) AMOC models have been contradicted by observations in both magnitude and sign. The AMOC has not been declining in response to increases in atmospheric CO2. There is even evidence of trend increases.

“[W]e find that neither the CMIP5 nor the CMIP6 ensemble mean are successful at representing the observational AMOC data. … We show that both the magnitude of the trend in the AMOC over different time periods and often even the sign of the trend differs between observations and climate model ensemble mean, with the magnitude of the trend difference becoming even greater when looking at the CMIP6 ensemble compared to CMIP5.”

So, as the scientists ask, why should we trust future modeled predictions?

“[I]f these models cannot reproduce past variations, why should we be so confident about their ability to predict the future?”

Image Source: McCarthy and Caesar, 2023

7 responses to “Scientists: Nearly 4 Decades Of Climate Model Failure Undermines Confidence In Future Predictions”

  1. Emily

    Interesting perspective! It’s crucial to reassess and refine climate models based on real-world observations. Science is a journey of continuous learning and adaptation. 🌍🤔

  2. Scientists: Nearly 4 Decades of Climate Model Failure Undermines Confidence In Future Predictions • Watts Up With That?

    […] From the NoTricksZone […]

  3. Richard Greene

    Climate computer games have been a great success.
    They were programmed to scare people,
    And they did.

    Of course every prediction of environmental doom in the past century has been wrong, so it is obvious humans can not predict the climate in 50 or 100 years. Except me. The climate will get warmer, unless it gets colder.

  4. Ed Reid

    The “model mean” of ensembles of meaningless models is a meaningless mean.

    Get back to me when there is one model that actually models.


    How long have they been telling me that Miami will be under water within ten years? At least 30 years, perhaps closer to 40!!!!!

  6. Models versus observations: AMOC edition - Climate Discussion Nexus

    […] new study (h/t NoTricksZone) by a pair of scientists from Ireland and Germany comparing climate model simulations of the AMOC […]

  7. Wissenschaftler: Fast 4 Jahrzehnte des Versagens von Klimamodellen untergraben das Vertrauen in deren Zukunftsprognosen | EIKE - Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie

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