“Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 W/m² during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 W/m² during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 W/m² increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR)…” − Loeb et al., 2024
Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface (ocean).
Earth’s Energy Imbalance (the net difference between incoming and outgoing energy) has been increasingly positive since 2000, rising from an average +0.5 W/m² from 2000 to 2010 to +1 W/m² in the last decade. This positive trend is the consequence of the +0.9 W/m² increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) due to this observed decline in cloud cover.
Thus, the 2000-2022 increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) can be explained by increases in shortwave (SW) forcing, and not an enhanced greenhouse effect due to rising greenhouse gases.
Image Source: Loeb et al., 2024
The reason we can say greenhouse gases cannot explain modern warming is because the positive shortwave (SW) forcing driving SST increases has been partially offset – reduced – by a declining greenhouse effect or longwave (LW) forcing (-0.4 W/m²) over this period. This is manifested as an increasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) trend (more energy lost to space) during the first 23 years of the 21st century.
The LW forcing trend is partially impacted by trace greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4, as well as by water vapor.
“…part of the -OLR trend is associated with reduced emission resulting from increases in water vapor and WMGG [well mixed greenhouse gases] above the cloud top…”
But the predominant factor affecting OLR is the decadal-scale trend in cloud cover, referred to as the cloud radiative effect (CRE). While declining cloud cover results in increasing absorbed solar radiation (see the red positive SW bar on the CRE chart), it simultaneously enhances, rather than reduces, the outgoing longwave trend (as shown in the blue negative LW bar in the CRE chart).
In other words, the greenhouse effect impact, manifested as the trend in OLR, has been heading in the opposite direction of what it should have been if anthropogenic CO2 emissions were indeed driving global warming. CO2 emissions are not impactful enough to reverse the overall sign of longwave radiation.
According to Cess and Udelhofen (2003), a negative greenhouse effect influence – enhancing cooling – was also observed over the 1985-1999 period. Thus, extending the 2000-2022 trend another 15 years, the total greenhouse effect forcing may have actually been cooling the Earth for more than 35 years.
Image Source: Cess and Udelhofen, 2003
Models say an enhanced greenhouse effect due to increasing trends in well-mixed greenhouse gases explains the rise in SSTs in recent decades. These model results are not supported by observations.
Another paper showing that actual measurements (which belong to genuine sciencific methodology) do not support the GHG hypothesis and that climate models are wrong and actually, give opposite results to observations.
Firstly, the GHG junk science should be immediately defunded and all the clowns behind this scam sacked.
But who will payback the stolen trillions, the deterioration in living standards or even the reduction in life expectancy by absurd and harmful policies during the last 2-3 decades in order to fight an inexistent climate threat, while massively wasting Earth resources and causing actual ecological disasters worldwide?
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