Climate Bet Of The Decade Update 5

I’m a little overdue with the climate bet (FOR CHARITY) update. But here it is.

This bet is also known as the Honeycutt Climate Bet for Charity, named after Rob Honeycutt who first proposed this bet. You can find the background info here.

The cool side takes an early lead!

Will the new 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one? The first month, January – 2011,  came in well below the 2001-2010 average. Call it a 3-pointer for the coolists – a message to the warmists! We’ve taken the early lead. And looking at the La Nina that’s taken hold, that early lead will certainly grow. Is it going to be a blowout?

It’s a long ballgame though – 119 more months! Here are the bets so far (I hope I haven’t left anyone off the list. If so, let me know and I’ll repost the table).

The cool side bets so far:

Also add reader Mathhu ($100) to the above list. New total $5550.

And the warm side bets:

The warmists, though small in number, are indeed a generous bunch.

So far we (both sides) have pledged over $19,000.00. So no matter who wins, some good will come out of this.

 

21 responses to “Climate Bet Of The Decade Update 5”

  1. Brian G Valentine

    I’m impressed by the magnitude of Rob’s wager. I couldn’t possibly afford something like that.

    But – didn’t Al Gore predict the end of the world in 2016 or something like that?

    So, maybe nobody will have to pay.

  2. Edwin Adlerman

    It’s also easy to be generous when the end result goes to a good charity!

  3. Sparks

    My interpretation of the bet so far is;

    The warm side betters probably think that they won’t be around to pay up due to the anthropogenic catastrophic global warming effects or maybe they control the data and are overly confident of what the results will be.

    Where as the cool side betters probably think that they will be around and are betting small sensible amounts and maybe they don’t control the data and are not overly confident of what the results will be.

    1. Dana

      Yeah Sparks, we think climate change will make the human race extinct within the next 9 years.

      That was sarcasm, by the way.

    2. Rob Honeycutt

      Sparks… No. I put up $5k because the full body of research into this issue says that I’m going to win. I’m betting the science is right. Given the 10’s of thousands of papers and the thousands of researchers publishing on this issue… I’d say the chances I’m wrong are extremely small.

      You guys are banking that a bunch of weathermen (Bastardi, Watts, et al) are right.

      1. DirkH

        The population of researchers supporting a hypothesis does not correlate with its correctness but with the funding offered for research favoring the hypothesis.

    3. Edwin Adlerman

      The warm side betters probably think that they won’t be around to pay up due to the anthropogenic catastrophic global warming effects or maybe they control the data and are overly confident of what the results will be.

      Really, then why did I use my FULL REAL NAME “sparks,”, eh??

      And yes, right now I’d like to admit that I control all weather data and weather models currently running on planet Earth. I’m a very very busy man, Mr. “sparks”.

  4. BargHumer

    I just made a computer model that predicts that in 10 years time the warmists will lose, and then have to pay up. I am 100% certain that it works, irrefutable science and robust fully debugged and unhackable code, but I don’t want to share the code. So the outcome is certain, no doubt anymore. Perhaps the warmists could pay up now and get the pain over with?

    In a short while, I think I can also get my model to predict last weeks lottery numbers too, with a high degree of accuracy +/- 1 digit.

    1. Rob Honeycutt

      Wow! You’ve got it all sewn up. How about you help bring the coolists up to what the warmists have ponied up?

      You’re 100% confident. You can’t lose!

  5. Sparks

    If you could cheat a this bet how would you go about it?

    If you have placed a bet on the warm side and believed that man made co2 is going to cause the temperatures to be warmer this decade, Would you increase your Co2 output (carbon impact) or would you try to reduce your Co2 output?

    or

    If you have placed a bet on the cold side and who don’t believe that man made co2 is going to cause the temperatures to be warmer this decade, Would you decrease your Co2 output (carbon impact) or would you try to increase your Co2 output?

    Either way kind regards to all of you who are taking part in this for charity! and best of luck.

  6. BargHumer

    Pony up (to give reluctantly) is an interesting thought bearing in mind that three times as many coolists are on the list, but just a few warminst stump up most of the cash. Smells a bit of the dictatorial class versus the peoples uprising. The people will overturn all dictators in the end. It is not just the arab world that is in fear of it’s own people.

  7. Jon

    “bearing in mind that three times as many coolists are on the list, but just a few warminst stump up most of the cash.”

    Maybe, just maybe, the readership of this blog includes a lot more coolists than warmists.

  8. Rick

    The warmists will probably win for two reasons, and not because our CO2 emissions are causing the earth to warm. Reason number one is the temperatures are being taken (and adjusted) by the scientists on the warmist’s side with a vested interest in the outcome. Reason number two is that it is probably still warming since the end of the Little Ice Age and might not start to reverse the process for another couple hundred years. But don’t worry, the warming will not be any more catastrophic than the warming during the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, or any other natural warming.

  9. Coolists 3 – Warmists 0

    […] The status of the bet has not changed since the last update here. […]

  10. Who Will Win The Climate Bet Of The Decade? | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

    […] two warmists from Skeptical Science: Rob Honeycutt and Dana Nuccitelli (and others). Also see update-5. The warmists are pledging more than […]