It’s September and with it come signs of fall and expectations of winter.
I’ve found some early winter prognoses of what Central Europe and Germany. I used to rely on Joe Bastardi for the euro winter forecasts, and he had a habit of being correct. But he’s busy with his new Weatherbell now, and I’m not aware of him making euro-forecasts.
So I’ve had to look at other sources, and so far preliminary forecasts are signaling a snowy and cold Central European winter.
killikus.de here makes a comprehensive analysis for central Europe (in German) and presents its prognosis in its introductory box:
Prognosis for the winter weather and Christmas weather for Winter 2011/2012
Snow and water without end! Winter 2011/12 will be wetter than summer 2011.”
Killikus.de writes that the North Atlantic stream assured us warm and mild winters over the last decades, but since 2008 that situation has changed.
So since the year 2008 it is increasingly colder in the winter months and also wetter. As it appears now, the cold wet climate will pick up in the coming winter months.”
That means we ought to think about having snow shovels and road salt ready. And don’t put off the winter tyres. Killikus.de also cites an old North German farmer’s rule:
‘There are always 7 fat years that get followed by 7 lean years.’ The 7 fat years ended on 31 December 2008, and so ‘the 7 lean years will end on 31 December 2015’. Until then, expect lots of rain and very cold winters.”
Killikus.de then explains how this is due to natural variations in northern hemisphere.
wetterprognose-wettervorhersage.de writes that the period September-November will be too cold and at times “considerably too cold”, and adds that eastern Europe and Scandinavia will lack precipitation. For the winter months of December – February:
…Eastern and Northern Europe will be significantly too cold. In Germany the 2011/2012 winter prognosis today looks as follows: mainly normal, but with cold spilling in at times from the east or north – considerably too much precipitation in January and February, whereby January 2012 will be rated too cold (January is the coldest winter month). The probability for a normal to cold 2011/2012 winter is higher than a winter that will be too warm.”
www.duessel-wetter.de does not make a winter forecast, but offers a fall forecast. First it writes that things dont’t look good for late September: Hope for a nice late summer in the middle of September has significantly diminished.
Only southeastern Germany will temperatures get above average! Otherwise things don’t look at all good. It looks like so-so autumn weather.
For Germany that means cool and wet. Duessel-wetter.de’s autumn forecast calls for a 32% chance the fall will be cooler, 30% chance it will be around normal, and a 38% chance it will be too warm. It should be pointed out that 38% chance is very low in these global warming times. Often in the past chances of a warmer-than-usual winter were pegged at 70% or 80%…because it was thought CO2 was such a dominant driver.
Finally the National Weather Service chart also indicates to cold for Europe in the months ahead: