German 2000-Year Peat Bog Temperature Reconstruction Shows Strong Central European Variations

Ever wonder how climate change in the past could ever have been posible without CO2 changes? Some people, like Prof. Michael E. Mann, think it wasn’t possible and that climate was always steady back then.Mann even fabricated a hockey stick chart to precisely show that – until 1850 that is. Then man got smart, industrialized, and everything went to hell.

Well, there’s yet another temperature reconstruction out there showing once again Michael Mann was wrong, and that the climate often went to hell in the past too.

The latest proxy reconstruction comes from a German peat bog and goes back 2000 years. And in case you haven’t guessed it by now, temperatures were all over the place. So much so, that the researchers themselves even express they can’t believe their own results.

A new paper by Moschen et al appearing ain the journal Climate of the Past presents a high resolution reconstruction of local growing season temperature (GST) anomalies at Dürres Maar, Germany over the last two thousand years.

In 2007, a 5.5 m long core was recovered from the centre of Dürres Maar peat bog in the mountainous West Eifel Volcanic Field in southwestern Germany.

According to the paper’s abstract (emphasis added):

The temperature reconstruction is based on the Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose /temperature dependency observed in calibration studies. Reconstructed GST anomalies show considerable centennial and decadal scale variability. A cold and presumably also wet phase with below-average temperature is reconstructed between the 4th and 7th century AD which is in accordance with the so called European Migration Period marking the transition from the Late Roman Period to the Early Middle Ages. At High Medieval Times above-average temperatures are obvious followed by a temperature decrease.

I got a copy of the paper from a source, who wrote: “The ex-hockey team will hate it”.  The paper’s Figure 6 tells quite the story. Indeed there was a lot of climate change in the past when CO2 was more or less stagnant. Look at the huge variations 1000 years ago! Obviously natural factors truly do exist. The Medieval Warm Period is shown again to be just as warm, if not warmer than today.

As reader DirkH points out in a comment, even the researchers have great difficulty coming to terms with their own results.

16 responses to “German 2000-Year Peat Bog Temperature Reconstruction Shows Strong Central European Variations”

  1. DirkH

    Pierre, the paper is downloadable as PDF under Creative Commons License.
    http://www.clim-past.net/7/1011/2011/cp-7-1011-2011.pdf
    see
    “This work is distributed
    under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.”
    at
    http://www.clim-past.net/7/1011/2011/cp-7-1011-2011.html
    Doesn’t this make it ok to put up a screenshot of the graph together with a link?

  2. DirkH

    The abstract says “At High Medieval Times, the amplitude in the reconstructed temperature variability is most likely overestimated; nevertheless, above-average temperatures are obvious during this time span, which are followed by a temperature decrease. ”

    In other words, they can’t believe their own reconstruction – so big is the MWP temperature anomaly in Fig. 6! Just too sweet… Modern researchers so brainwashed by the CO2 AGW hypothesis they can’t believe their own measurements…

  3. DirkH
  4. R. de Haan

    The first thing that’s going to happen in Germany is the re-introduction of the Deutschmark.

    See: http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html

    After that event we will continue the climate discussion. Or not.

    1. DirkH

      Nice story, but in reality Europe will continue moving its debt from one pocket to the other. The usual suspects will continue siphoning off money; amongst them the climate-renewable complex. A whole lotta screaming, a whole lotta pain. For years. No end in sight, no cataclysm. The Germans will pay dearly.

    2. DirkH

      In the linked Spiegel interview, it was not Schäuble who said “monetary reform” but the Spiegel interviewer. The blogger draws wrong conclusions by misattributing the quote.

  5. Hokey “hockey stick” temperature reconstruction busted, again | JunkScience Sidebar

    [...] German 2000-Year Peat Bog Temperature Reconstruction Shows Strong Central European Variations By P Gosselin on 2. Oktober 2011 [...]

  6. R. de Haan

    i don’t think so DirkH,

    Germany has set a limit to the price they are willing to pay to save the Euro.
    This will still allow them to bail out their own banks.
    The re-introduction of the Deutschmark will become inevitable if the Euro continues to crash.

    It’s as simple as that.

    1. DirkH

      German politicians have to pretend there’s a limit to keep voters at bay; and make the wealth transfer scheme complicated enough so that people don’t notice.

  7. Hengist McStone

    Pierre, You are fully entitled to your opinions but you’re not entitled to misrepresent others. Your words “Some people, like Prof. Michael E. Mann, think it wasn’t possible and that climate was always steady back then” are a clear misrepresentation.

    1. DirkH

      So he didn’t make the hockey sticks?

  8. Ulrich Elkmann

    “Germany has set a limit…”: but have they? Or is that just the current ceiling on the Emergency Treasurehouse that must be expanded, pumped up, “leveraged” once it turns out that the only effect of all the previous hundreds of billions of €€ poured down into the bottomless pit has been to buy them a few weeks of time? (from 400+ billion to 700+ billion to ~2 trillion…). And even if they have set a limit, and the “secret Plan B” (reintroduction of the Mark) Pippa Malmgren and others hope for does in fact exist: would They – the financial sector and/or the politicans – even stand the slightest chance of meeting the goal?
    The last time this happened here it took two extended periods of hyperinflation to bring a monetary reform about: January 1922 to June 1923 before the introduction of the German Rentenmark, and early 1946 to the end of 1947, preceding the Deutsche Mark. If it takes hyperinflation, of course, all bets are off (and in this case all savings WILL be lost – there will be no exchange of East German “blechmark” (or euros, in this case) at a rate of 2:1 or even 10:1). And even if the decision to reform is made, it takes at least six months to implement the new currency – time enough to fray some tender nerves.

  9. R. de Haan

    Lukewarmer AccuWeather presents Brutal Long Term US Winter forecast
    with above normal snow fall and below normal temperatures.

    Reality is catching up.

    Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55832/brutal-winter-ahead-for-the-mi.asp

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55995/worst-of-winter-20112012-aimed.asp