Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning have called HadCrut’s temperature prognosis scale-back “drastic” and say James Hansen’s “legendary prognoses” of rising global temperatures are on the verge of a “dramatic failure”.
Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Photo credit: www.kaltesonne.de/)
The avalanche starts to roll: British weather service drastically scales back its prognoses for warming
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr Sebastian Lüning
(Translated/edited with permission by P Gosselin)
The British weather service is one of the first important organisations to pull the emergency brake and drastically scale back its warming prognoses for 2020. After 15 years of no warming, it’s obvious that the models have been re-evaluated by the UK Met Office and that they have given up on the notion of an imminent global warming surge (see report at Tallbloke’s Talkshop).
The old prognoses showed a temperature increase of almost 0.5°C by the end of the current decade. Now the scientists expect the temperature will stay more or less stable, perhaps rising a tenth of a degree.
An animated comparator of the old and new prognosis is provided by Bob Tisdale.
Former Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology Director Hartmut Graßl and GISS director James Hansen are not going to be amused. Their legendary heat prognoses have lost yet more backing from today’s science (see our blog articles: “Graßl’s warming prognoses of 1990 risks dramatic collapse” and “What happened with James Hansen’s temperature forecast of 1988? Time for a look back“).