For the record, both now concede that global temperatures have indeed defied the vast array of (expensive) model projections and have not gone up in 15 years. Now more than ever before they are forced to concede that the models have been giving CO2 too much weight as a climate driver.
But Latif, who 10 years ago predicted Europe would hardly see snow and frost in the wintertime, now claims that he “isn’t at all surprised in any way by the warming hiatus” (and that all the models have been wrong). To his credit, Latif in the past predicted that ocean cycles needed to be better taken into account and that the warming would pause due to ocean cycles.
Hans von Storch, on the other hand, says he is surprised by the stalled warming: “It hasn’t gotten as warm as we expected. […] We really have to think about whether or not our models can really project the future development.”
Too much complexity and uncertainty
Spektrum then asked if the scientists perhaps overestimated CO2. The warmist Latif admits the following:
There are uncertainties regarding CO2 climate sensitivity. This is stated in the upcoming IPCC report, which summarizes the latest of science and looks at a very broad range. Here it is not appropriate to boil the whole problem down to a single magnitude: the global mean temperature. Rather it is necessary to understand exactly what is happening regionally, how the temperature develops at a location. But we are not yet that far, and perhaps we will never get that far because it is far too complex. This is why I’d prefer not to stay stuck on climate sensitivity.”
The most recent decades contain a strong contribution from the AMO (MOC) even on a global scale. This raises questions about the average climate sensitivity of the IPCC models.”
What we have here is a devout warmist, Mojib Latif, conceding that average climate sensitivity of the IPCC is truly under serious question and that nothing is settled after all. Therefore any claims to certainty made in the AR5 will have no credibility whatsoever.
When it comes to the impact of the sun, von Storch warns:
We should not declare this discussion over too soon. When we look at the 20th century, the climate fluctuations cannot be exclusively attributed to CO2 alone or to internal factors. Also the sun naturally played a role. The question is whether or not we correctly quantified it.”
Warming stop may continue until 2025!
Also Spektrum asks how much longer should we expect the warming stop to continue. Latif:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the temperatures remain at a high level until 2020 or 2025.”
That would mean almost 30 years without any warming. That also means the temperature will in 2025 will be 0.6°C below what the models projected. Meanwhile Hans von Storch says he is starting to get nervous:
I would get nervous if the temperature continues to pause more than 5 years more. The we would really need to question our climate models. But I also do not expect a cooling.”
My feeling is that we’ll be checking in 2018. But then again, in five years time both will probably be retired.