Warming Gets Delayed Again…IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif: Pause “May Stubbornly Remain Until 2020 or 2025”!

German online Spektrum.de science magazine conducted an in-depth interview with two leading international climate scientists, Professor Mojib Latif and Professor Hans von Storch.

For the record, both now concede that global temperatures have indeed defied the vast array of (expensive) model projections and have not gone up in 15 years. Now more than ever before they are forced to concede that the models have been giving CO2 too much weight as a climate driver.

But Latif, who 10 years ago predicted Europe would hardly see snow and frost in the wintertime, now claims that he “isn’t at all surprised in any way by the warming hiatus” (and that all the models have been wrong). To his credit, Latif in the past predicted that ocean cycles needed to be better taken into account and that the warming would pause due to ocean cycles.

Hans von Storch, on the other hand, says he is surprised by the stalled warming: “It hasn’t gotten as warm as we expected. […] We really have to think about whether or not our models can really project the future development.”

Too much complexity and uncertainty

Spektrum then asked if the scientists perhaps overestimated CO2. The warmist Latif admits the following:

There are uncertainties regarding CO2 climate sensitivity. This is stated in the upcoming IPCC report, which summarizes the latest of science and looks at a very broad range. Here it is not appropriate to boil the whole problem down to a single magnitude: the global mean temperature. Rather it is necessary to understand exactly what is happening regionally, how the temperature develops at a location. But we are not yet that far, and perhaps we will never get that far because it is far too complex. This is why I’d prefer not to stay stuck on climate sensitivity.”

Moreover, Die kalte Sonne website here points us to a presentation by Latif. On page 31 he concedes the powerful role played by ocean cycles and concludes:

The most recent decades contain a strong contribution from the AMO (MOC) even on a global scale. This raises questions about the average climate sensitivity of the IPCC models.”

What we have here is a devout warmist, Mojib Latif, conceding that average climate sensitivity of the IPCC is truly under serious question and that nothing is settled after all. Therefore any claims to certainty made in the AR5 will have no credibility whatsoever.

When it comes to the impact of the sun, von Storch warns:

We should not declare this discussion over too soon. When we look at the 20th century, the climate fluctuations cannot be exclusively attributed to CO2 alone or to internal factors. Also the sun naturally played a role. The question is whether or not we correctly quantified it.”

Warming stop may continue until 2025!

Also Spektrum asks how much longer should we expect the warming stop to continue. Latif:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the temperatures remain at a high level until 2020 or 2025.”

That would mean almost 30 years without any warming. That also means the temperature will in 2025 will be 0.6°C below what the models projected. Meanwhile Hans von Storch says he is starting to get nervous:

I would get nervous if the temperature continues to pause more than 5 years more. The we would really need to question our climate models. But I also do not expect a cooling.”

My feeling is that we’ll be checking in 2018. But then again, in five years time both will probably be retired.

 

11 responses to “Warming Gets Delayed Again…IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif: Pause “May Stubbornly Remain Until 2020 or 2025”!”

  1. Stephen Richards

    So are they saying that global temps (impossible to accurately measure) will be perfectly stable (to within a few thousandths of a °C) over the next 30 years ??

    Yeh, OK stupids. You have learned nothing, have you?

    They are just so wrapped up in their religion.

    1. John Silver

      It’s a peak, not a pause.

  2. L Michael Hohmann

    Old news for you: The AGW fraud has nothing whatever to do with ‘science’. Why is nobody listening to the IPCC itself? To leave no doubt, in an interview published in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung on 14 November 2010, Otto Edenhofer, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III, said “The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War…. one must say clearly that de facto we redistribute the world’s wealth by climate policy…. One has to rid oneself of the illusion that international climate politics have anything to do with environmental concerns.”

    1. DirkH

      “Why is nobody listening to the IPCC itself? ”

      Germans are forced to spend 8 billion Euro a year on the public broadcasters which are 100% propaganda organs. No German I know personally has ever heard of Edenhofer’s utterances; it is not discussed in German media.

      It is a filter, only us few self-actuators notice it.

  3. Colorado Wellington

    Es bleiben im Raum: Schellnhuber, Latif, Rahmstorf und Schönwiese.

    Das war ein Befehl!
    Die Klimasensitivität von 10°C war ein Befehl!
    Das gesamte Klima-Sekretariat ist nichts weiter als ein Haufen niederträchtiger, treuloser Feiglinge!

  4. Sunday’s climate ‘logic’ | Climate Etc.

    […] NoTricksZone has translated an article from the German German online Spektrum.de science magazine that conducted an in-depth interview with two leading international climate scientists, Professor Mojib Latif and Professor Hans von Storch.  Quotes: […]

  5. Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

    Hi, Pierre, keep up the good work! Judith Curry has cited this at Climate Etc – I wonder why her excellent blog isn’t on your roll?

    A few years ago, you ran a long Der Spiegel article with the German climate scientist who pulled the 2C target limit out of the air. I can’t find my copy, is is still available?

    Thanks, Faustino

    1. DirkH
      1. Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

        Thanks, Dirk. I’ve posted the link and part of the article at CE. I think everyone needs to know the basis for that infamous 2C.

  6. Bob Tisdale

    Thanks, Pierre. That was an enjoyable read.

    Regards