Climate Models Turn Out To Be “Fairy Tales” … Long-Term Central Europe Winters Show Distinct COOLING Trend!

Josef Kowatsch and Stefan Kämpfe at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) analyze the winter data from Germany’s DWD Weather Service an conclude that winters have been cooling.

The two authors present a lengthy analysis of German winter trends and what factors impact them the most. Today I will focus on the first part of their article, i.e. winter trends in Central Europe – mainly Germany. What follows is an abbreviated summary version.

Because of Western Europe’s proximity to the Atlantic, mild winters are nothing unusual and have occurred many times in the past. Two mild winters in a row occurred from 1909/10 to 1912/13, 1918/19 to 1920/21, 1934/35 to 1936/37, 1947/48 to 1949/50, 1987/88 to 1989/90. The article by Kowatsch and Kämpfe looks at if German winters are really getting warmer and less snowy, as is frequently claimed. They are not.

Now trend in snow coverage

An important indication for the character of a winter in Germany is the number of days with a snow cover on the ground that is at least 1 cm. That can be traced back thanks to the records of the Potsdam station, which goes back to 1893/94. There snow can fall already in October and well into April, and so it makes sense to look at the seasonal snow coverage days, where by the season goes from October 1 to April 30:

Figure 1: The number of snow coverage days – which fluctuates wildly – has been unchanged over the long-term. There’s no indication of reduced snow coverage days for Potsdam. The low snow year 2014/15 in the German lowlands is not included in this chart; yet it will show significantly more snow coverage days than the extremely low snow winter of 1974/75. (Source: PIK).

When one considers only the meteorological winter (DJF), no trend is detectable for snow coverage. However there are periodic fluctuations (Figure 2):

Figure 2: In the 1910s to the 1930s 1910er as well as at the end of the 20th century, there were generally fewer snow coverage days, instead the winters were wetter, milder. (Data source: PIK).

Over a large regional scale (entire northern hemisphere) reliable data on snow cover are available since 1967. During this almost 50-year period snow coverage fluctuated strongly, yet there is no declining trend:

Figure 3: Since 1967 there has been no reduction in wintertime snow cover days over the northern hemisphere (Source: NOAA).

German winter temperatures – cooling!

Next we will look back at German winters over the past 28 and 18 years, and do so without considering the urban heat island effect despite the ongoing landscape alteration by man: Every day some 108 hectares are being built upon in Germany and thus creating growing heat islands around temperature measurement stations.

Germany’s winter of 2015 is currently pegged by the German DWD Weather Service as being 1.8°C above normal. Thus it’s the second warmer than normal winter in a row. However, the German DWD neglects to tell the public one thing: Over the long-term winter temperatures have dropped. It’s getting colder. See Figure 4. Data come from the German DWD Weather Service in Offenbach.

Figure 4: Winter temperatures have been falling in Germany for almost 30 years. The two recent mild winters have not changed that trend.

Result: Despite the alleged “global warming”, which is supposed to make itself evident especially in the winters, German winters are ignoring the forecasts made by the so-called climate scientists. It’s going to take an impressive series of mild winters just to flatten the trend.

This is proving to be terribly inconvenient for climate scientists who banked on warming. In the meantime cooling phases are being ignored, or data are even being falsified.

With the German winter temperature, the trend downwards would be even steeper if the UHI were properly accounted for. Yet, already some scientists are seizing upon the fact that the last 2 winters have been mild as “proof of warming”.

Next the single winter months (DJF) are examined individually (all data come from the DWD). Here’s December for the last 30 years:

Figure 5a: The trend is slightly downward, mainly owing to the especially cold December of 2010.

If one factored in the UHI, then the trend would be even more pronounced.

What follows is the 28-year trend for January:

Figure 5b: January has gotten markedly cooler over the years.

January also shows no warming in sight. One finds warming only in the climate models, and nowhere else. The next chart depicts the trend for February:

Figure 5c: Here the downward trend is unmistakable.

The February trend tells us one thing: Springtime is not arriving earlier. February 2015 in Germany was just a bit above normal.

Fairy tale models – truth being covered up

Kowatsch and Kämpfe summarize: “Winter in Germany is taking on a course of its own and is ignoring the forecasts made by the IPCC and the PIK. Warming? Where? In any case they are not to be found in German winters.” The two authors ask:

Where is the global warming which we are supposed to be massively combatting in Germany over the last ten years? Foremost the winter months were supposed to especially warm up. We were warned that there would be no more snow in the flatlands and that winter sports would be possible only at high elevations. […] It turns out these were forecasts from the category of Germany fairy tales. However, what’s worse is that this truth is being covered up and hidden from the German public. Not a single one of our charts is being shown by the media.”

No warming in Central England in 30 years

Kowatsch and Kämpfe also show the same is true in Central England; no temperature rise in 30 years:

Figure 6: No increase in 30 years, which is a climate-relevant period.

Tomorrow I will post on the factors that Kowtsch and Kämpfe say drive western European winters: Ocean cycles (and not Arctic sea ice).

22 responses to “Climate Models Turn Out To Be “Fairy Tales” … Long-Term Central Europe Winters Show Distinct COOLING Trend!”

  1. Francis Massen

    Gustav Hellmann, a Prussian (German) meteorologist and climatologist defined the “Hellmann number” to classify winters (probably in our regions): one takes the period from 01 Nov to 31 Mar (so considerably more than the usual DJF) and adds the absolute value of all negative average daily temperatures during that period. If the number is higher, winters are seen more severe (as there are more “frost” days). I computed these numbers for our station (meteoLCD) for the winters 2004 to 2014 (2015 has March missing, so is not yet included). Look here for a plot with a positive trend, despite the very warm 2014 winter. A positive trend shows that since 2004 the winters have becoming ***cooler***, but sure, there is quite a lot of wiggle in the year-to-year situation.

  2. DirkH

    “However, what’s worse is that this truth is being covered up and hidden from the German public. Not a single one of our charts is being shown by the media.”

    The state of the German media is worse than I ever witnessed through my entire life. 36% of the journos are Greens, another 26% other leftists, IIRC, those are the ones that became journalists not to report objectively but to bring about their beloved changes come hell or high water(*). Anyone who voluntarily pays money for German media is a complete moron.

    (*) hmm, that sounds like the battle cry of the warmist.

  3. R2Dtoo

    A very good summary. If you can’t get in the MSM put it everywhere you can on the Net and it will get around. It got to me in Canada. Thanks for the work.

  4. sod

    “Fairy tale” is what you get, when you listen to the master cherrypickers from EIKE.

    Let us look at snow cover for exmaple:

    “ince the early 1920s, and especially since the late 1970s, SCA has declined in spring (Figure 4.2) and summer, but not substantially in winter (Table 4.2) despite winter warming (see Section 3.2.2). Recent declines in SCA in the months of February through August have resulted in (1) a shift in the month of maximum SCA from February to January; (2) a statistically significant decline in annual mean SCA; and (3) a shift towards earlier spring melt by almost two weeks in the 1972 to 2000 period (Dye, 2002). ”

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch4s4-2-2-2.html

    Sohow does EIKE achieve a different result?
    You just pick only datapoints (month, places, timeframe) that gives you the result that you desire…

    1. DirkH

      In 2007 warmism was still optimistic to soon rule the world.

      It is now 8 years later and they have been exposed for the charlatans you are.

      sod, you were two years old when that report you cited came out.

      1. sod

        “In 2007 warmism was still optimistic to soon rule the world.”

        from the 2013 report:

        “There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th
        century (see Figure SPM.3). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent decreased 1.6 [0.8 to 2.4] % per decade for March
        and April, and 11.7 [8.8 to 14.6] % per decade for June, over the 1967 to 2012 period. During this period, snow cover
        extent in the Northern Hemisphere did not show a statistically significant increase in any month. {4.5}”

        http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf

        NO statistically significant increase in any month. EIKE is missleading you folks. badly.

        1. AndyG55

          IPCC/Greenpeace/agenda, has been misleading you since the inception of the whole global warming scam.

          You are just too gullible and non-thinking to realise that fact.

    2. AndyG55

      “So how does EIKE achieve a different result?”

      Because they are a scientific organisation rather than a group of global warming apostles.

      EIKE is not affected by the hand of Greenpeace et al, pushing the warminista agenda fabrications.

      Hence we get reality, not farce.

      1. sod

        Please look at the data. There is a massive snow cover decrease in the spring months. (it is so big, that it is stronger than the weather noise. that is, why it is called “statistically significant”)

        The winter increase is there and is acknowledged by the IPCC. But it is not statistically significant.

        1. AndyG55

          Yawn, its just normal climate variability, young child.

          Its happened before, it will happen again.

          Its called NATURAL climate variability. !!!

    3. Josh

      Sod’s remarks about EIKE are a classic case of projection. It is more than a little ironic for warmenistas to accuse skeptics of cherry-picking. Even if a warming trend had been observed recently, it wouldnt prove anything, except that the climate is a dynamic system that doesnt follow any rule of thumb. Opinion pieces and rantings of badly behaved activists do not constitute proof of anything and are further reason to doubt what we are fed by mainstream (lamestream?) media.

    4. Dale

      The 1970s were a rather cool period, so much so that a number of scientists were considering the possibility of the world entering another ice age. That didn’t happen of course, or at least not at that time.
      However, one thing we can take away from this is that years following the 70s have been somewhat warmer (e.g. no ice age, yet). What did not change however, is the constant change in our climate alternating from cool or cold periods to relatively warm periods of varying degrees.
      Bottom line: we can’t do much about either short of a thermo nuclear war so instead we better learn to adapt to whatever lies ahead. If we’ve got all this money to spend, then this type of venture might be one of our best choices.
      Dolling it out to the likes of the IPCC, Al Gore, David Suzuki, big government and other huxters is not going to return any bang for our hard-earned buck.

  5. Stephen Wilde

    “the factors that Kowtsch and Kämpfe say drive western European winters: Ocean cycles (and not Arctic sea ice).”

    Late, but welcome nonetheless:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/

    Published by Stephen Wilde May 21, 2008

  6. DirkH

    Protest against wind turbines, pay the price.
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/28/kenyan-wind-farm-company-regrets-shooting-of-teenager/

    Can’t have local residents spoil a fat cash grab can we.

  7. DirkH

    German article: wind turbines in Denmark drives minks mad. Now the thing is, minks are stoopid; they can be no evil climate skeptics yet they kill each other when exposed to wind turbine infrasound.

    Government saw itself forced in 2013 to commission research into infrasound. New wind power installed dropped by 90% from 2013 to 2014 as municipalities wait for results of research (obviously frightened about possible compensation claims)

    Article also contains tales of Danes who had their livelihood or health ruined by the relatively useless wind turbines.
    http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/energie/article137970641/Macht-der-Infraschall-von-Windkraftanlagen-krank.html