Spiegel has the latest analysis of the climate haggling going on at COP21. It looks pretty heated.
From science journalist Axel Bojanowski‘s perspective, the representatives have encountered some major obstacles. He writes of a “huge clamor” and reports that the treaty is on the brink. He writes, citing delegates, the negotiations have been charged with “harsh threats” and “sick pride”:
China, India, USA, EU and the oil producing nations downright crashed against each other with full force in the negotiations.”
Bojanowski writes of swirling discord over the 2°C target, noting that a group of countries led by the USA and the EU wish to adopt the “highly ambitious” 1.5°C target, which means the planet would only have 0.5°C of allowable warming remaining.
Theoretically that would require an immediate stop in emissions growth – something that in reality is pure fantasy. Saudi Arabia wants nothing to do with the 1.5°C target and, according to Bojanowski, is threatening to “bust the fragile alliance of developing countries, the so-called Group 77”.
The Spiegel report portrays a conflictive atmosphere where developing countries are pitted against industrial ones. The former are demanding that the latter pony up for the “damage” caused and be given leeway in emitting carbon. However the USA delegation insists industrial countries commit to reductions as well, “especially China”, where pro capita CO2 emissions are already approaching EU levels.
Although the media (at least in Germany) are projecting a cooperative and constructive atmosphere in place in Paris, the Spiegel report tells us the opposite, where a huge chasm still remains between industrial developed countries and the emerging countries. Bojanowski writes that the current draft treaty has enraged the USA delegation” because it calls on the developed nation to “allocate financial support” while other countries “contribute voluntarily” – a condition in the main part of the treaty that would never pass the US Congress. China insists that this clause remain in the main part.
Bojanowski writes that China “feels provoked” by the newly formed “High Ambitious Coalition” which comprises the USA, EU and poor developing countries – which China used to represent – and is now “unwilling to compromise“, Bojanowski reports.
The Treaty is far from being ready, and there is still a chance that the whole process could collapse. Expect the bazaar to last through the weekend.