Masato Mori’s Harsh Winter/Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Hypothesis Flops, Brand New Study Shows!

Some 15 years ago we were told that snow and ice in the wintertime would be things of the past.

Then Europe and North America experienced a series of harsh winters and climate scientists, turning on a dime, suddenly declared them the result of global warming.

Now that claim too is turning out to be a farce as well.
=====================================

Flopped hypothesis: Cold winters not the consequence of shrinking Arctic sea ice

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning und Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Do you recall how the experts wanted to tell us that cold winters were linked to global warming? For example Spiegel Online wrote on 27 October 2014:

Weather bridge: Ice melt in the Arctic cooling winters in Europe
Climate scientists have discovered a meteorological remote link: When the sea ice melts in the Arctic, atmospheric currents get shifted – winters in Europe and Asia get cooler.
According to a study, ice melt over the past decades has led to especially harsh winters in Europe and Asia. Observations show that the cold winters could be linked with the retreat in Arctic sea ice, which has been happening over the past decades. Scientists led by Masato Mori of the Japanense University of Tokyo have discovered that the retreat of sea ice in the Arctic Barents-Kara Sea favor atmospheric currents that lend to cold in Europe and Asia. These atmospheric patterns that are called ‘blocking situations’ that serve to convey cold air to Europe and Asia and cause harsh winters there, reported the scientists in the journal “Nature Geoscience”.

A regrettable scientific knee-jerk reaction – as it would be exposed just half a year and half later.

A team of scientists of the University of Colorado Boulder and the NOAA led by Lantao Sun examined the mechanism more closely on 25 May 2016 in a new study in the Geophysical Research Letters. They were unable to confirm the relationship between sea ice melt and cold continental winters. The cold winters were neither explainable by the shrinking Arctic sea ice, nor by anthropogenic factors, the scientists found. A pronounced and underestimated natural climate variability is much more at play here.

The abstract for this important paper follows:

What caused the recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern in winter temperatures?
The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use multiple models to examine whether such a pattern is indeed forced by sea ice loss specifically and by anthropogenic forcing in general. While we show much of Arctic amplification in surface warming to result from sea ice loss, we find that neither sea ice loss nor anthropogenic forcing overall yield trends toward colder continental temperatures. An alternate explanation of the cooling is that it represents a strong articulation of internal atmospheric variability, evidence for which is derived from model data, and physical considerations. Sea ice loss impact on weather variability over the high-latitude continents is found, however, to be characterized by reduced daily temperature variability and fewer cold extremes.

This is a nice example of how we should not immediately believe everything our experts say and why critique and skepticism are completely justified.

 

31 responses to “Masato Mori’s Harsh Winter/Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Hypothesis Flops, Brand New Study Shows!”

  1. John F. Hultquist

    I recall making a comment, perhaps on NTZ, when the topic of melting Arctic and shifting blocking highs was first reported.
    I think there was a serious timing problem — a 2 year delay between melt and cold weather. Something such. Others had even harsher words.

    ~~~~~
    minor glitch in your text

    “– as it would be exposed just half a year and half later.”

  2. yonason

    “Now that claim too is turning out to be a farce…”

    OK, then, how about this. Would you believe…?

    Now it’s no longer “Global Warming” but “Local Warming” that we need to fear, and somehow control.
    http://joannenova.com.au/2016/05/nature-finally-finds-cause-of-antarctic-pause-will-last-centuries-tosses-global-warming-out/

    Basically, they’ll now take whatever warming they can get, while ignoring any and all cold, …or try to blame it on warming.

    All their claims are false. Come on sod, get off the climate bus. It’s not going anywhere.
    https://static2.crated.com/zgheAi6D-kMrhT5d4yIDgnO_xgU=/fit-in/960×960/filters:quality%2890%29/crated/thumbs/art/2014/05/01/180f4b128dd6e0faf712fa4826415cc8/960.jpg

    1. DirkH

      It’s still good enough to deliver precious 31 billion Euros in subsidies a year in Germany.

  3. Ron C.

    Meanwhile a so-so Arctic melt is underway this year.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/06/01/so-so-arctic-melting-may-31/

    1. sod

      That article is totally wrong. The numbers completely contradict it.

      https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

      Arctic temperature is completely out of control and might be falling below the average for the first time this year now.

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      The facts, they hurt.

      1. Mindert Eiting

        Just think about it: something can only be below the average for the first time, if it is the second measurement from the start and below the first.

        1. sod

          “Just think about it: something can only be below the average for the first time, if it is the second measurement from the start and below the first.”

          The green line is an average. This year was always above the average so far.

          http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

          1. AndyG55

            poor sob has so little understanding, its becoming hilarious…

            the only part that was above “average” by any significant amount was the first 100 days of the chart…. at -20ºC of enormous heat.

            funny little critter, this s.o.b.

      2. AndyG55

        “and might be falling below the average for the first time this year now ”

        Yes.. it is BLOODY COLD up there…

        Your point is ?

      3. AndyG55

        So, sob.. which would YOU prefer as a winter temperature…

        MINUS 20ºC… or MINUS 25ºC ????

  4. AndyG55

    OT: UAH global dropping fast.

    Down to +0.55ºC from +0.71ºC last month.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2016-0-55-deg-c/

    1. AndyG55

      The El Nino was only ever going to a transient effect.

      Gone now… Strong La Nina predicted.

      AMO starting to head downwards.

      The Sun having a snooze

      This is probably the last year of the zero temperature trend of this century.

      A cooling trend is coming that will be a wake-up call to all those sucked in by the AGW alarmism.

      1. yonason

        “Cooling from the weakening El Nino is now rapidly occurring as we transition toward likely La Nina conditions by mid-summer or early fall.” – Roy Spencer
        http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2016-0-55-deg-c/

        Slowly the temperature turned. Step by inexorable step . . .

        1. DirkH

          Friggin cold here in Munich. Cloudy all day, for a week or two now. Torrential rains across Bavaria, local river floods have even killed a few people. Quite a number of rooftop solar installations here. This is on average one of the sunnier places; 800 sun hours in the North, up to 1000 here in the South. Can’t have made much this year so far.

          Not impressed with Bavarian weather.

          You know. I got my personal Gore effect. I worked for 2 years in Hamburg and it immediately froze over (The monster La Nina 7 years or so back, took 2 years to wane. I think 2008/2009.)

          Fun thing was I was working in a solar company of True Believers in Global Warming, I arrived and told them to expect cooling and bang did it cool as winter arrived.

          Now I arrive in Bavaria and it is getting conveniently cold. I don’t like sweating.

          Only area I didn’t manage to freeze was the Rhine valley. That’s where sod is, in the Freiburg area. People there are SO True Believers they started to vote in the Greens. Because, it was ALWAYS the hottest area in Germany but NOW they believe it’s the cursed CO2. So, the lie is basically made for them.

          1. yonason

            “You know. I got my personal Gore effect.” – DirkH

            We could use you in Central Florida right about now. Daytime temperatures are oppressively normal for this time of year.

    2. sod

      “Down to +0.55ºC from +0.71ºC last month.”

      Yes down again. celebrate it!

      These numbers are still incredibly high. The globe was much hotter than it is supposed to be.

      “This is probably the last year of the zero temperature trend of this century.”

      The pause is gone. Unless you start plotting trends from the latest peak again.

      1. AndyG55

        “The globe was much hotter than it is supposed to be.”

        ROFLMAO…… so much RUBBISH in such a short sentence.

        OK sob.. What is the globe’s temperature MEANT to be.

        Please make reference the whole of the current interglacial.

        The pause will return, then head downwards.. please stay around, and bring a big rag for the egg on your face.

        Do you know what “TRANSIENT” means… apart from your park bench

        1. DirkH

          “OK sob.. What is the globe’s temperature MEANT to be”

          I keep asking the warmunists for the desirable AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE in absolute terms. I never get a reply.
          They say 2 centigrade more is a catastrophy. 2 centigrades more than WHAT? They refuse to answer.

          But, they might indeed be so stupid they don’t understand that they SHOULD have an answer. Stupidity is amazing in its incomprehensibility – outrightly opaque for an intelligent being.

          1. yonason

            “…What is the globe’s temperature MEANT to be?”

            Comfortable. And the comfort should be all year round. No cold winter. No hot summer. Just blissfully balmy, and comfortable for every person. Whatever temperature YOU like, that’s what it should be for you. If you like it cool, it should be cool. If you like it warm, it should be warm. But definitely not hot. No one should like it hot. That’s like a law, or something.

            How we will achieve this perfection, I don’t know. I’m a skeptic, so I’m not privy to such a closely guarded secret. But don’t worry, our warmist friends will see to it that, by adjusting our carbon output, everyone will be comfortable at his/her/its optimum temperature, all at once!

            Utopia awaits. All you need to do is believe.

            Now, BELIEVE, #&*@! IT, OR ELSE!!!!

          2. Mindert Eiting

            A long time ago it existed as Paradise. Adam and Eve had to leave because they preferred to acquire knowledge in stead of living in boredom, and had to dwell in a cruel world with all kind of weather extremes. Return is impossible, according to Genesis.

          3. AndyG55

            Mindert, I’m guessing Adam and Eve could be placed somewhere during the Holocene optimum, when it was 2-3C warmer. 🙂

      2. AndyG55

        “These numbers are still incredibly high”

        Oh ok… so you can tell the difference between 15C, 15.55C and 15.71C can you…. really ;-).

        Don’t make me laugh toooooooo much !!!

        Funny little fella, this sob guy.

      3. yonason

        “The globe was much hotter than it is supposed to be.” – sod the lawgiver has spoken

        (I hope you’re all taking this down!)

        sod will use Spencer’s data, but he won’t quote Spencer’s interpretation of it.

        Like AndyG55 writes, “Funny little fella, this sob guy.”

        1. AndyG55

          His desperation at the coming COOLING trend an the very high likelihood of increasing Arctic sea ice over the next few year….

          bring tears (of laughter) to my eyes. 🙂

        2. yonason

          June is the boring month…
          http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01901e344ff8970b-pi

          A whole lot of NUTHIN going on there! Be VERY afraid!

      4. yonason
        1. yonason

          Here’s the rest of the story for that graph (in the first link, obviously).
          http://patriotpost.us/opinion/41944

          Overall cooling is coming (though some areas won’t and some will warm). It remains to be seen how much cooling their is. But bottom line, there is no human caused disaster looming, unless it is the consequence of absurdly irresponsible “responses” the warmists have contrived to deal with their irrational fear of basically everything.

    3. yonason

      LOL – missed that, or I wouldn’t have posted on it. Oops!

  5. sod

    To give some perspective on things: May 2016, which felt pretty cold, again turned out to be warmer than average.

    “Mit durchschnittlich 13,6 Grad lag der Mai um 1,5 Grad über dem Soll der international gültigen Referenzperiode 1961 bis 1990. Gegenüber der Vergleichsperiode 1981 bis 2010 betrug die Abweichung +0,6 Grad.”

    http://www.wetter.de/cms/so-war-das-wetter-im-mai-2016-heftiger-monat-mit-frost-hitze-und-starkregen-2921587.html

    1. AndyG55

      You mean like in the Arctic this February, when it was some 5 degrees+ more than average.

      and everybody was stripping down to their undies to escape the heat…… right 😉

      You seriously are making a fool of yourself today, sob.

      Please keep going .. a bit of a belly laugh is good for everyone. 🙂

  6. Manfred

    I’ve already heard climate ‘scientists’ proclaim loudly on the NZ eco-Progressive MSM that they do indeed identify the likelihood of the onset of a cooling period with the caveat, “but one should recognise of course, it won’t be as bad because of the warming.”
    Manners, rather than political correctness, inhibit me from expanding further