New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year!

A brand new paper is out on sea level, and guess what?

The findings show that sea level is going nowhere fast and that in the Arctic it is rising only half as fast as the much IPCC ballyhooed satellite altimetry measured 3.3 mm/year and accelerating rise.

Authors: Peter Limkilde Svendsen, Ole B. Andersen, Allan Aasbjerg Nielsen
Accepted manuscript online: 13 July 2016Full publication history
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC011685View/save citation

The paper’s abstract follows, with my emphasis added:

Stable reconstruction of Arctic sea level for the 1950–2010 period

Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is generally difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of both tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. Here a strategy to achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from 1950 to today is presented. This work is based on the combination of tide gauge records and a new 20-year reprocessed satellite altimetry derived sea level pattern. Hence the study is limited to the area covered by satellite altimetry (68ºN and 82ºN). It is found that timestep cumulative reconstruction as suggested by Church and White (2000) may yield widely variable results and is difficult to stabilize due to the many gaps in both tide gauge and satellite data. A more robust sea level reconstruction approach is to use datum adjustment of the tide gauges in combination with satellite altimetry, as described by (Ray and Douglas, 2011). In this approach, a datum-fit of each tide gauges is used and the method takes into account the entirety of each tide gauge record. This makes the Arctic sea level reconstruction much less prone to drifting.

From our reconstruction, we found that the Arctic mean sea level trend is around 1.5 mm +/- 0.3 mm/y for the period 1950 to 2010, between 68ºN and 82ºN. This value is in good agreement with the global mean trend of 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/y over the same period as found by Church and White (2004).”

No wonder global warming con-man Al Gore had no qualms about buying a beachfront home.


5 responses to “New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year!”

  1. Rud Istvan

    The closure problem shows that sat alt is high. (SLR ~1.5x sum of estimates of ice sheet loss and thermosteric rise.) Long record geostationary tide gauges (or their equivalents, long record tide gauges sufficiently close (paper defined that as within 50 km) to a diff GPS so a vertical land motion correction can be applied) comes out about 2.0-2.2 mm/yr depending on the tide gauge set used. There are about 70 of the diff GPS stationary/corrected to chose from globally. At those values there is no closure problem. At 1.5-1.8mm/yr a slight inverse closure problem is present even if Antarctica is set to zero ice loss per Zwally IceSat, and the recalculated GRACE estimates using diff GPS actual GIA rather than model estimared GIA. So I tend to think 1.5-1.8 is a bit low, owing to uncorrected GIA/tectonic uplift. But even 2.2 shuts down the alarm, since the purpose of the exercise was to look for SLR acceleration. There isn’t any.

  2. Graeme No.3

    “No wonder global warming con-man Al Gore had no qualms about buying a beach front home”.
    Curiously in Australia 2 former Prime Ministers who were fervent believers in AGW or Climate Change both retired to houses they bought near the sea. Also Tim Flannery, whom some readers will recognise as a leading alarmist and one almost as bad as sod, bought more land to enlarge his waterfront house and land (access only by water).
    I think it unlikely sod has a house with an ocean frontage but perhaps Pierre may be able to ‘retire’ him anyway. He is getting more excited and illogical and it can’t be good for his health.

    1. Mindert Eiting

      Health OK. It may be helpful to know how a masochist manipulates his partner(s).

  3. Frederick Colbourne

    “No wonder global warming con-man Al Gore had no qualms about buying a beachfront home.”

    I was called out for saying something similar. So I used Google Earth to find the “beachfront house” and discovered my critic was correct. The house is a “beachview house” high up the slope.

    Just guessing I would say at least 15 meters (50 feet) above sea level.

    I also checked road access but remembered that if the roads were submerged, Mr Gore would just use a helicopter.

  4. DB

    The authors note that more recently (1993-2012) the trend was a bit higher, about 2mm/yr.