Some years ago German warmist climatologist Mojib Latif complained over our changing climate, reminding us how in Germany we used to get snow sometimes for Easter.
Well this year, in mid April, Easter is relatively late, and the forecast is now calling for snow to hit large parts of Europe as a low pressure system (OTTO) centered over the Baltic sea will pump polar air across the continent — thus ushering in a nasty and possibly protracted spell of winter.
Germany’s DWD forecast for April 15. Otto’s cold front will pump in cold and moist polar air to kick off an unusual wintery April cold wave: Source: www.wetteronline.de/wetterfronten/europa.
German weather and climate site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here provides a good analysis of the situation. Ahead for the coming days are frost and snow. What follows are the GFS snow forecast charts from wetteronline.de for April 17, 18 and 19, which show widespread snowfall across Central Europe, even reaching down to the Mediterranean by Wednesday:
Chart sources: wetteronline.de
According to the WBDE site, temperatures in Europe will plummet by up to 12°C below normal.
NOAA caught by surprise, revise forecast
The April cold wave took the NOAA by surprise. The US weather and climate organization had predicted an outright balmy April back on March 22, 2017:
CFSv2 April temperature prognosis of March 22, 2017. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html
Obviously the NOAA weather models had some major blind spots back in March (which is understandable), as much of Europe was projected to be 2°C warmer than the long-term mean.
But later on when the cold became obvious, the NOAA was forced to update its April 2017 forecast:
CFSc2 temperature forecast for April 2017. Much of the forecast was corrected significantly downward. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html
On the other hand March 2017 across Central Europe was very warm, and had a number of media outlets blaming it on global warming. Germany even saw a new warm record set for the month of March. Perhaps that skewed the forecasters into thinking the warmth would continue, all in line with their global warming beliefs.
Trend: spring in fact coming later and later
The German DWD then added that spring was starting earlier and earlier – due to climate change, but did not mention that you have to go back some 60 years to get an overall warming trend line. However over the past 30 years, German springs have in fact been starting later and later – a reality that the DWD conveniently omitted.
This year it appears winter will be pushing spring back to May. Midterm forecasts show the cold wave will persist at least another week.
Warmists will naturally be quick to point that late-April snow in Central Europe is really nothing that unusual, which is true — if the cold spell lasts only a matter of days. However, as Wetter24 here notes, what is about to hit the continent will persist and thus be indeed unusual. It writes of April weather in Germany:
On the other hand what is unusual is a longer-lasting phase with significantly below or above normal temperatures. And it is such a phase that is now approaching with an anticipated long period of below normal temperatures.”
The bottom line: “thing-of-the-past” snow and frost are still ignoring “global warming” and are still showing up in April. Earlier predictions that they wouldn’t are wrong.