Upper Layers Of Atlantic Refuse To Obey Global Warming Orders

Upper Atlantic layers ignore commands to warm

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
German text translated by P. Gosselin)

We would like to take a look at the oceanic warming of the Atlantic. From the latest Climate4You Newsletter (pdf her) We look at the heat content curve of the last 60 years for the upper most 100 meters of the Atlantic:

Fig. 1: Atlantic heat content curve for the past 60 years (upper 100 meters of the Atlantic water mass). Chart: Climate4You.

Clear to see: Over the past 13 years the Atlantic has not warmed further. The chart shows a large plateau. There was a plateau 1955-1985, followed by a rise, then another plateau starting in 2004.

The current missing warming of the upper layer of the Atlantic was also the subject of publication by Somavilla et al, which appeared in March 2016 in the Geophysical Research Letters. It claims that the heat simply moved from the upper levels to the lower layers of the Atlantic:

Mid-2000s North Atlantic shift: Heat budget and circulation changes
Prior to the 2000s, the North Atlantic was the basin showing the greatest warming. However, since the mid-2000s during the so-called global warming hiatus, large amounts of heat were transferred in this basin from upper to deeper levels while the dominance in terms of atmospheric heat capture moved into the Indo-Pacific. Here we show that a large transformation of modal waters in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) played a crucial role in such contrasting behavior. First, strong winter mixing in 2005 transformed ENA modal waters into a much saltier, warmer, and denser variety, transferring upper ocean heat and salt gained slowly over time to deeper layers. The new denser waters also altered the zonal dynamic height gradient reversing the southward regional flow and enhancing the access of saltier southern waters to higher latitudes. Then, the excess salinity in northern regions favored additional heat injection through deep convection events in later years.”

And if you take a look at the temperature anomaly chart in the paper’s supplement (Fig. S1), you can see how heterogeneous this trend really is. We’ll have to keep an eye on it.

Heat distribution had been already the topic in a paper by Desbruyères et al 2014 in the Geophysical Research Letters:

Full-depth temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century
The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated using a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0–450 m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000 m to 3000 m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003–2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000 m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively), while the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53 ± 0.06 W m−2 through the sea surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus.”

We wish to take another look at the mentioned North Atlantic cooling in an up-to-date chart from Climate4You:

Fig. 2: North Atlantic heat content curve for the past 60 years (upper 700 of the North Atlantic water mass). Chart: Climate4You.

 

39 responses to “Upper Layers Of Atlantic Refuse To Obey Global Warming Orders”

  1. CO2isLife

    Bill Nye The Science Guy; Catastrophic Ice-Age Averted, Man-Made CO2 Saved Mankind

    Contrary to conventional wisdom/consensus, man-made/anthropogenic CO2 was driving the earth towards catastrophic warming. According to Bill Nye the Science Guy, the truth, however, is just the opposite.

    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/bill-nye-the-science-guy-catastrophic-ice-age-averted-man-made-co2-saved-mankind/

  2. Jeff Wood

    ” It claims that the heat simply moved from the upper levels to the lower layers of the Atlantic”

    So heat rises downwards. I am glad that is cleared up.

    1. Kenneth Richard

      The entirety of the narrative presumes that heat from CO2 concentration changes in the atmosphere dives down into the ocean depths, warming the 0-2000 m layer.

      1. SebastianH

        No, heat from CO2 is not warming anything that is already warmer …

        But the presence of CO2 and resulting backradiation from GHG results in surface emitters not being able to emit all the incoming energy until this internal energy buildup is large enough again.

        Radiative energy transfer Basics …

        1. Kenneth Richard

          At what point did CO2 concentration change supersede the parameters that “drive the transmission of solar radiation in the atmosphere”? I ask because scientists don’t even mention CO2 as an atmospheric parameter factor that contributes — let alone drives — the solar radiation transmission. Why is that, SebastianH?

          Alexandri et al., 2017
          http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516303398
          “Using a radiative transfer model and a set of ancillary data, these biases are attributed to the atmospheric parameters that drive the transmission of solar radiation in the atmosphere, namely, clouds, aerosols and water vapor.” [CO2 not mentioned]

          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0041:OOTIRP>2.0.CO;2
          Observations of the Infrared Radiative Properties of the Ocean
          “[I]t is necessary to understand the physical variables contributing to sea surface emitted and reflected radiation to space.The emissivity of the ocean surface varies with view angle and sea state, the reflection of sky radiation also depends on view angle and sea state, and the absorption of atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, aerosols, and subdivisible clouds affect transmittance.” [CO2 not mentioned]

          http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JC091iC09p10585/abstract
          “The heat balance of the global ocean surface layer is calculated using bulk flux formulations. … Incoming solar radiation and latent heat flux are the two dominant components that control net surface energy fluxes. Wind speed, cloud cover, and the gradient of specific humidity are the three most important meteorological parameters in determining surface flux”. [CO2 not mentioned]

        2. sunsettommy

          Sebastian,

          you are so lost here, since the whole AGW pablum,is based on the CO2 effect on the ATMOSPHERE, not in the Ocean waters of the world,which is dominantly being warmed to depths of 300 feet (100 M)from the SUN!

          Satellite data show that CO2 effect is very small,which is why the AGW conjecture failed.

          1. SebastianH

            Everything is warmed from the Sun. The only other energy source is Earth’s core which contributes very little to surface temperatures.

            And I agree, AGW is based on the fact that the greenhouse effect exists. Some skeptics deny that this is the case and invent some magic effects in order to get a surface temperature that matches observations. Are you one of them?

          2. Kenneth Richard

            SebastianH, do you believe there is such a “thing” as being a skeptic, accepting the greenhouse effect “exists”, but simultaneously acknowledging that CO2 is only a minor player? Why do you have to dishonestly make up a straw man and claim that “skeptics…invent some magic effects in order to get surface temperature that matches observations”? Who here has written about something magical occurring? Is making up fake positions and attributing them to others an effective tactic for you elsewhere?

            Lightfoot and Mamer, 2014
            http://journals.sagepub.com.sci-hub.cc/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.25.8.1439
            CO2 accounts for 2.7% of the global warming while all of the other gases account for approximately 0.7% for a total of approximately 3.4%. It becomes evident that, on average, water vapour accounts for approximately 96% of the current global [greenhouse effect] warming.

          3. sunsettommy

            Sebastian,

            I stand by what I wrote:

            “Satellite data show that CO2 effect is very small,which is why the AGW conjecture failed.”

            Because the Satellite data says so. Not only that the IPCC reports keeps telling us from 1990 on wards that it was first PREDICTED,then afterwards projected that it would warm around .30C per decade,it NEVER has been close to that. Currently Satellite data from 1979,show a .12C per decade warming trend,from 1998 on wards, a .05C per decade warming. Basically statistically insignificant trend of late.

            You go on with your childish baloney:

            “And I agree, AGW is based on the fact that the greenhouse effect exists. Some skeptics deny that this is the case and invent some magic effects in order to get a surface temperature that matches observations. Are you one of them?”

            Once again have to point out the freaking obvious that the postulated AGW effect is to be in the ATMOSPHERE arena,where Satellite measures the minor effects in various parts of the atmosphere, the surface temperature doesn’t matter much. As YOU said yourself,the sun is the dominant source of heat and energy in ocean waters. The “Greenhouse” effect doesn’t exist in the water,because CO2 which is already in abundance, doesn’t absorb, hardly any IR at all there.

            The other massive AGW predictive failure is the still missing Tropospheric “hotspot” that was supposed to show up as per the contrived climate models. It hasn’t after several decades.

            This is easy stuff for anyone who can read and think beyond their noses.

          4. AndyG55

            “invent some magic effects ”

            As you have very convincing PROVEN by your inability to produce one paper that proves CO2 causes warming over water or in a convective atmosphere….

            …. the only “invention of a magic effect” is your unsupportable CO2 based AGW garbage.

      2. toorightmate

        If you go deep enough in the North Atlantic, you can steam vegetables.

    2. SebastianH

      How do you explain the temperature gradient in the convective atmosphere? Why should convection in liquids be different?

      1. Kenneth Richard

        “Why should convection in liquids be different?”

        1. Heat capacity (air vs. water) is different by magnitudes.

        2. IR (in the air) cannot penetrate into the ocean (past the hair-thin “skin” layer).

        3. There has never been a controlled scientific experiment that has generated physical measurements (or empirical observations) demonstrating that varying CO2 concentrations over a body of water causes heat change in water.

        1. SebastianH

          No comment … have even read what I have written or is this just a reflex now at this point of our comment relationship?

        2. AndyG55

          4. compressibility of air vs liquids.

          5. there is no paper that proves empirically the CO2 causes warming in a convective, gravity/pressure controlled atmosphere… because it doesn’t.

          1. SebastianH

            What is it with you two? Is answering with your prepared statements just a reflex now?

            I replied to “So heat rises downwards.” with a question how the OP would explain convection which “sorts” air parcels by temperature with increasing temperature downwards.

            And you two reply with nonsense about CO2 and IR not being able to penetrate water?

            I hope you two know that currents in water aren’t exclusively horizontal …

          2. Kenneth Richard

            “Is answering with your prepared statements just a reflex now?”

            I didn’t have to prepare anything. You asked why there is a difference between heating air vs. water. I answered your question.

            Would you like to explain, in a prepared statement, why you believe that there is no difference between the mechanism(s) involved in heating/cooling the air vs. heating/cooling the ocean?

          3. SebastianH

            You asked why there is a difference between heating air vs. water.

            No, I didn’t …

      2. AndyG55

        “No, I didn’t …”

        “Why should convection in liquids be different?”

        That is what you asked..

        that is what was answered.

        Sorry you don’t have the junior high education or intelligence to comprehend.

        1. AndyG55

          seb, if you haven’t got the intelligence to understand pressure and density gradients and how they differ in liquids and gases, then nobody can help you comprehend anything. You are missing a major slab of basic education.

          As we have all notice, time and time and time again…

          … you remain WILFULLY and PERSISTENTLY IGNORANT.

    3. dennisambler

      It’s how you get upside down charts……

  3. Kenneth Richard

    Even more concerning…

    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Holocene-Cooling-North-Atlantic-OHC-Duchez-16.jpg

    Duchez et al., 2016
    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004#erlaa2f23s5
    [C]old ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record [since 1948] over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. … we consider the exceptionally cold ocean surface anomaly that was already in place prior to the onset of the 2015 heat wave. The SST anomaly field for June 2015 shows temperatures up to 2 °C colder than normal over much of the sub-polar gyre with values that are the coldest observed for this month of the year in the period 1948–2015 indicated by stippling. The cause of this cold anomaly has been the subject of widespread interest in the media, we now show for the first time that it can be attributed to a combination of air–sea heat loss from late 2014 through to spring 2015 and a re-emergent sub-surface ocean heat content [cold] anomaly that developed in preceding years.”

    1. SebastianH

      What percentage of the ocean surface is covered by this rectangle that is getting colder? https://i0.wp.com/www.climate4you.com/images/NorthAtlantic60-0Wand30-65N.GIF

      Could it have something to do with the gulf stream? Or do you actually believe that the Sun is responsible? Who is responsible for the warming of the rest of the ocean then? Does the Sun shine differently elsewhere?

      1. Kenneth Richard

        “Who is responsible for the warming of the rest of the ocean then? Does the Sun shine differently elsewhere?”

        I’ll try to help you understand how climate change works, SebastianH, by introducing you to some scientific papers. I literally have 100s more like these. Let me know if you need more educational literature.

        Yamakawa et al., 2016
        This study attempted to determine the relationships between solar activity and SST [sea surface temperature]. Instrumental data from 1901 to 2011 revealed a significant positive relationship on a global basis. … Conclusion: The analysis of the relationship between variations in solar activity and SST from 1901 to 2011 indicated that sunspot numbers and SST were positively correlated in wide areas, with statistically significant positive correlations in many regions. … It is worthy of note that the highest coefficients at a 29-month lag were found in the relationships both between SSN [sunspot number] and PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation], and SSN and CP El Niño with statistical significance at the 99% confidence level, respectively.

        Salau et al., 2016
        Discussion of the Results: The results show that there is good connection between ENSO events and the changes in the background temperature and the precipitation in Nigeria. … Overall, the investigation shows a linear relationship between the solar radiation and the induced temperature, thus indicating that the observed variations in the temperature are mainly controlled by the insolation forcing

        Wang et al., 2016
        Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

        Faust et al., 2016
        A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. … The [NAO proxy record] shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends.

        McCarthy et al., 2015
        Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content.

        Liu et al., 2015
        Modulation of decadal ENSO-like variation by effective solar radiation
        Here, we show that the effective solar radiation (ESR), which includes the net solar radiation and the effects of volcanic eruption, has modulated this decadal ENSO-like oscillation. The eastern Pacific warming (cooling) associated with this decadal ENSO-like oscillation over the past 139 years is significantly related to weak (strong) ESR [effective solar radiation].

        Lakshmi and Tiwari, 2015
        The 11 years solar cycle acts an important driving force for variations in the space weather, ultimately giving rise to climatic changes. Therefore, it is very important to understand the origin of space climate by analyzing the different proxies of solar magnetic variability. The another most important climate variation is El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which impact the global oceanic and atmospheric circulations which thereby produce droughts, floods and intense rainfall in certain regions. The strong coupling and interactions between the Tropical Ocean and atmosphere play a major role in the development of global climatic system. … In particular, the El Niño, solar, geomagnetic activities are the major affecting forces on the decadal and interdecadal temperature variability on global and regional scales in a direct/indirect way.

        Tiwari et al., 2015
        Invariably the splitting of spectral peaks corresponding to solar signal indicated nonlinear characteristics of the data and; therefore, even small variations in the solar output may help in catalyzing the coupled El Niño-atmospheric ENSO cycles by altering the solar heat input to the oceans. We, therefore, conclude that the Indian temperature variability is probably driven by the nonlinear coupling of ENSO and solar activity.

  4. sod

    while this article is nitpicking small time spans in specific regions to keep simulating a pause as a talking point, the real world is moving on fast. The EPA is eliminating real information and people and especially scientists are getting really angry. The backlash will be huuuuge.

    ““Hang on EPA, the midterms are coming. 2018,””

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/climate-march-expected-to-draw-massive-crowd-to-dc-in-sweltering-heat/2017/04/28/1bdf5e66-2c3a-11e7-b605-33413c691853_story.html?utm_term=.7e6d6454d30c

    1. sunsettommy

      Sod,

      the “real world” is quickly falling behind,while increasing snowfall and cold of the last decade comes along,in complete defiance of the 2001,2007 IPCC reports. Currently winter is slow to leave large areas of Europe and Asia and even in North America,as shown here, in the LAST WEEK OF APRIL:

      The last time Santa Fe saw snow this late in the season was May 7, 1969

      Spain – Sudden freeze destroys most vines in Monterrei

      Hard freeze in France – Some vineyards totally destroyed

      “Extraordinary” cold in Spain – Snow at 600 meters

      Surprise snowfall in the heart of France

      Snow in Scotland as temperatures plummet

      More than 2 feet of snow for Norway

      Turkey – Greenhouses collapse due to snowfall

      Hard freeze kills 95 to 100 percent of Alsace vineyard buds – Video

      Italy – I have never seen something like this, neither my mother

      Lighting fires in Italy to keep grapes from freezing

      Up to two meters of new snow in Austrian Alps

      Numerous temperature records fall in Switzerland.

      More record lows in eastern Canada

      Unbelievable snowfall in Romania, Moldova and Ukraine – Video

      https://www.iceagenow.info/

      The EPA is the agency that promoted insane CO2 molecule is a pollutant argument(which is an essential part of the Photosynthesis process) For the singular purpose of smashing industry.

      How can you fall for it? as it is still a trace gas with a very small IR absorptive range.

      It is STUPID!

      1. toorightmate

        You are 100% correct and poor Sod is very, very slow on the uptake.
        The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

      2. sod

        “It is STUPID!”

        It is weather.

        1. AndyG55

          Yes. Its ALL just weather.

          FINALLY you are starting to see REALITY !!

          Maybe you are finally getting past puberty ???

          nah !!

        2. sunsettommy

          Sod, the IPCC said way back in 2001, that this would happen less and less over time as it transfer from snow to freezing rain to rain. That was SIXTEEN years ago!

          You ignorantly replied:

          ““It is STUPID!”

          It is weather.”

          The IPCC said it would get a lot less common,yet it is actually getting MORE snow and cold since that howler 2001 report came along.

          That list I posted is only a small sample of what is going on in the world,didn’t even bring up the many reports of very early winter presence, in the Southern Hemisphere…..

          You ignore so much evidence because it quickly destroy your warmist beliefs.

    2. AndyG55

      WaPost roflmao !

      The far, far left don’t like to see their LIES and MIS-INFORMATION being removes.

      SO WHAT !!!

  5. CO2isLife

    There are so many problems with the blaming ocean warming on CO2.
    1) Ocean heat content is 2000x that of the atmosphere.
    2) Oceans and water cover over 70% of the globe.
    3) The only mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate change is by trapping LWIR between 13 and 18 microns. Those wavelengths don’t and won’t warm water.
    4) Trapping heat as defined by the GHG effect can’t result in cooling.
    5) Warming oceans are evidence of more visible radiation reaching the oceans.
    6) More visible radiation reaching the oceans is evidence of cleaner air and fewer clouds.

    If you want to explain why the atmosphere is warming, you have to explain why the oceans are warming, and there is no way for CO2 to be warming the oceans.

    1. SebastianH

      So you believe that the ocean is radiating directly into space then? So the entire ocean surface with an average temperature of 15°C would radiate 371 W/m² into space and only receive ~240 W/m² from the Sun (on average)? How does this work without backradiation from GHGs?

  6. sod

    wind and solar power refuse to obey sceptic orders. Is this the day that will show 100% renewables to demand for the first time?

    Price already is deep negative…

    https://www.eex-transparency.com/

  7. Bill Butler

    As per usual, Global Warming Deniers fabricate data. Notice that the links to the source data don’t work. That’s because the source data shows that the Atlantic Ocean is actually warming.

    For anyone interest in the real world, here is a link to the real data. (Atlantic Ocean anomalies are under the “AO” column.)
    https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/pentad_mt/pent_T-dC-a0-700m.dat

    1. Kenneth Richard

      “Global Warming Deniers fabricate data. …the Atlantic Ocean is actually warming.”

      Some of the Atlantic is warming, and some (the North Atlantic) is cooling, as shown here in this graph from a peer-reviewed scientific paper:

      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Holocene-Cooling-North-Atlantic-OHC-Duchez-16.jpg

      Duchez et al., 2016
      http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004#erlaa2f23s5
      [C]old ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record [since 1948] over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. … we consider the exceptionally cold ocean surface anomaly that was already in place prior to the onset of the 2015 heat wave. The SST anomaly field for June 2015 shows temperatures up to 2 °C colder than normal over much of the sub-polar gyre with values that are the coldest observed for this month of the year in the period 1948–2015 indicated by stippling. The cause of this cold anomaly has been the subject of widespread interest in the media, we now show for the first time that it can be attributed to a combination of air–sea heat loss from late 2014 through to spring 2015 and a re-emergent sub-surface ocean heat content [cold] anomaly that developed in preceding years.”

      Why do you think it is, Bill, that the Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures have been cooling since 1979?

      Fan et al., 2014
      http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/fan.antarctic_seaice_trends.grl14.pdf
      “Cooling is evident over most of the Southern Ocean in all seasons and the annual mean, with magnitudes approximately -0.2–0.4°C per decade or -0.7–1.3°C over the 33 year period” [1979-2011].

      Why did “the entirety” of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Eastern Atlantic basin all cool below 2000 m between 1993-2011?
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Holocene-Cooling-Pacific-Atlantic-Indian-Oceans-WunschHeimbach14-copy.jpg

      Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014
      http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JPO-D-13-096.1
      Discussion: “A very weak long-term [1993-2011] cooling is seen over the bulk of the rest of the ocean below that depth [2000 m], including the entirety of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, along with the eastern Atlantic basin.”

      And why is the Pacific Ocean significantly colder now (-2.0 C) than it has been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years?

      Rosenthal et al., 2013
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Holocene-Cooling-Pacific-Ocean-Heat-Content-Rosenthal-13.jpg

      Or why is the Northeast Atlantic Ocean about -1.0 C colder now than it was 1,000 years ago?

      Rosenthal et al., 2017
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Holocene-Cooling-Northeastern-Atlantic-OHC-Rosenthal-17.jpg

      Please answer these questions which are rooted in data collected from peer-reviewed scientific papers.

      1. SebastianH

        Other parts must then getting warmer even faster, correct?

        Because overall, oceans aren’t getting colder …

        https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_content700m2000myr.png

        1. Kenneth Richard

          Riser et al., 2016
          http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2872.epdf
          “Most regions of the world ocean are warmer in the near-surface [0-700 m] layer than in previous decades, by over 1° C in some places. A few areas, such as the eastern Pacific from Chile to Alaska, have cooled by as much as 1° C, yet overall the upper ocean has warmed by nearly 0.2° C globally since the mid-twentieth century.”

          Yes, this is how “global” warming works. Some regions of the ocean are cooling, some regions of the ocean are warming, and the overall difference between the warming and cooling is the “global” trend.

          So, in other words, if the Arctic warmed by +1.5 C since 1979, but Antarctica cooled by -1.3 C since 1979, it would not be misleading to say that the polar regions have warmed by 0.2 C since 1979, right?

    2. sunsettommy

      Bill first of all you failed to make a point using the link,and that it ends at May 2014.

      Why did you ignore the up to date chart?

      http://kaltesonne.de/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/n-atlantic-ohc-1024×696.png

      It is based on the official data,from the NODC.