Will the next 2011-2020 decade be warmer than the previous 2001 – 2010 decade?
NTZ and cool readers are are pledging money and betting it will be cooler, or the same.
Warm readers, led by Rob Honeycutt, say it will be warmer, and so far have pledged $5200 on it.
We are now trying to get as many pledges for money as we can. The loser of the bet will have to pay the amount pladged to a charity for children in dire need, such as Children Hospice International or Doctors Without Borders.
So far NTZ and cool readers have pledged over $2,000 (10 Jan 2011), betting the next decade will be cooler. If the bet were decided today, then the loser would have to pay this amount to the charity (which has not been chosen yet).
Do you want to join the bet? Pledge an amount!
The bet
If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Rob Honeycutt and warmist betters will have to pay to charity the total amount that gets pledged by NTZ and readers betting on a cooler decade.
If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and coolist readers will have to pay everything they pledged to the charity.
Where, when and how do I bet?
You can bet simply by leaving a reader comment below telling how much you want to put down. I will then put your username and email address and amount on a list. I’ll be posting the updated list from time to time (without your e-mail address of course). Please make your pledges before October 1, 2011.
Which dataset will decide the bet?
It has been agreed to use a composite of RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface. The result will be accepted without quibbling, as it is agreed that it’s the best we’ve got. The average of the two will decide the bet!
How and when do I pay if I lose?
Payment will be made when the bet is settled, i.e. January, 2021, or possibly earlier if it’s clear who the winner will be, but only with mutual agreement. If us coolists lose, then they will have to pay what we pledged directly to the yet-to-be-chosen charity organisation. You will be asked to pay when the bet is settled, i.e. January 2021.
WHICH CHARITY GETS THE MONEY?
As mentioned above, the charity organisation is yet to be chosen, but will (1) be one that both sides agree on, (2) help children in dire need (3) have low overhead and (4) be international.
What happens if the loser doesn’t pay?
If the loser of the bet refuses to pay, then he will be forever regarded as a useless deadbeat loudmouth scumbag with no honour. We have a bucket of hot tar and a sack of feathers ready.
How will we control if someone pays?
I’m keeping a list, and somehow we will get a statement from the charity organisation confirming that payment was indeed made.
What if something happens to me and I can’t pay?
Not your fault. You’ll be simply taken off the list and you will be remembered as a generous and honourable person.
So please pledge a nominal amount!
I hope that more readers here will pledge some money for this bet. Again it would be nice to have the warmists pay the full $5200 they’ve pledged thus far. Right now us coolists have about $2000, and so we need to get more coolist bets. Minimum bet is $10.
Minimum age?
You have to be 18 or older.
So what is it going to be? Cooler, or warmer?
(Last updated 10 Jan 2011)
Put me down for $20
Oops! $20 for a cooler decade that is
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PG: Thanks!
Alright David! Thanks! You moved us to the 2K mark. Gotcha down.
Pierre, another $50-00 from me – for the cool side.
Betting on cool is cool, no?
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PG: You’re cool for pledging, and betting on cool is cool. Thanks Viv – you’re on the cool list and will appear in the next update.
Pierre, I am going to start telling the other blogs i visit to come over and join in on the fun. I am sorry but i do not know how to link to your site but i will tell them to come on over as fast as my two fingers can do the dance on the keyboard.
What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.
I get the feeling people are putting money down on the off chance there will be cooling.
I’m happy for every bet that comes in. $20 is a nice pledge. For many of us, the science is not settled, like it is in your view.
Why are you in such a hurry to lose your money?
This has been going on for only a week and we are already over $2000. I think it’s a great start. What do you think about accepting pledges for half a year? What do you say?
Absolutely. In fact, since we just came off a record high year I’m expecting the next year to be slightly cooler, so let’s keep it open for all of 2011 if needed to get this up to the $5000.
I’m actually hoping we get to the $5k sooner than later so I have the motivation to go out and roust up some more “warmists” to contribute to this.
Gotta put these bets in context though. $20 over 10 years is half a penny a day. Not much of a commitment.
“What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.”
Believe! – surely not Rob.
Isn’t it about weighing up the evidence and coming to a rational conclusion?
What happens if the decades are either equally warm or we have contradicting outcomes in the report?
If they are equal, then the coolists win because there will have been no warming. The average of RSS and UAH will be used, and so there will be no conflicts.
I wouldn’t worry about it too much. You guys are not going to win this one.
$200 (US or Canadian)
That the planet is going to be warmer on average in the next decade (2011-2020) than 2001-2010. Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’. My preferred charity is Medecins Sans Frontiers.
sacculina
Thanks for the pledge. I’ll put you down on the list. (PS: Be a little more optimistic…it can only get warmer or cooler, and cooler is really not very favourable- especially in Canada!).
“Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’. ”
My feelings as well – except I bet on the cool side.
I guess it depends on where you live and how much it costs to heat your home.
There’s also the rising cost of food to consider as reduced growing seasons affect crop yields etc.
Sorry Rob. H it’s not personal. I never bet, not even on certainties. This is very unfair on you and your chums but, at least, it is for a good cause.
If I’m allowed a general comment on the chosen charity, much as I admire medical colleagues who devote their careers to helping a small number of individuals it is clear that the greatest benefit comes from public health improvements i.e. clean water, sanitation and nutrition.
Ultimately, a charity which educates and liberates women would be my choice but none exists in the places that need it.
I pledge $100. win or lose! ( but R. H. pays as well if it is cooler)
Great fun if it weren’t for the windmills etc. as time will clearly tell.
Regards, TGW.
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PG: Thanks! It’s for a good cause…I think our chances are good. I’ll ut you down on the list, and will appear in the next update.
Up my bet from $5 to $50.
Bill Dawson
703 255 7053
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PG: Thanks Bill! Will appear in the next update.
I’m in for $50.00 on the coolist side.
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PG: Thanks soilpest. You’ll appear on the list in the next update ina few days.
I’m in for $250.00 on the cool side. Please contact me at my email address if you need additional information.
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PG: Yeah! Thanks. I’ll put you down on the list and you’ll appear in the next update. Right now I have your e-mail address, and that’ll do for now. We’re gaining on the warmists.
$250 for another decade of cooling (the trend is your friend!). I’m guessing that in 10 years $250 will be about the cost of a deli sandwich.
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PG: Thanks…the odds that it will be that devaluated are far greater than the IPCC warming scenarios coming true. You’re on the list and an update will appear in a few days.
I’m looking forward to the next update to see where we stand!
Rob, I’ll accept the risk of a Krakatoa scale eruption, and double your stake on the “warmist” side of the bet (There might be a confused other Rob Huneycutt who I just contacted via Facebook.)
Mr. Gosselin, As a show of good faith I just donated half of the “wager” ($2,500) to Doctors Without Borders which I expect to be quickly matched by “coolist” pledges. The “warmers” are now up to $10,200. (Come on readers.
Your site’s civility is refreshing, and your charity of choice is worthy of support by all. I’ll send you the donation receipt if you send me an email address.
Charles Zeller
Put me down for $200 for another decade of cooling.
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PG: You got it…you’re on the list and will show up in the next update. And you are right in saying “another decade of cooling”. Temps peaked in the late 90s, and are now gradually trending downwards. Problem with the warmists is that they like looking at charts upside down. Thanks for the pledge, Stephen.
New to site but please put me down for 50 usd. It will be warmer. I really don’t expect to lose but if I’m still around contact me anyway win or lose because they are good charities.
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PG: Thanks! You’re on the list.
You can put me down for 200 dollars on the cool side! This is like shooting fish in a barrel. Starting the decade with a la nina has got to give the edge to the cool side.
$ 100 wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler.
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PG: – Thanks – you’re on the list you will appear in the next update.
200 hundred dollar wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler than the last decade.After all it was the war-mist in a thousand years. How could it repeat?
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PG: Thanks Adrian, you will appear on the next list in the next update. Also read the latest post!You’re already on the list. Do you wish to double?
You can up my bet to $200 for the coolist side
$500 on cooling. I don’t expect it to be close.
If I’m losing, I’ll start saving in advance. But I have no worries.
Hope my health holds for the decade! I’ve reached the age where there’s no reasonable assurance of that.
PS;
A month since the last update. What’s the score?
Where’s the first list link? I don’t see it anywhere.
I bet the next decade will be cooler.
For $100 USD.
Harry
Thanks Harry, got you on the list. So far the first 4 months have been cooler.
Why was March 1, 2011 chosen as the cut off date for pledges?
Surely you can extend to December of 2011.
Changed to October 1, 2011!
I am on the cool side – put me down for $100.
$25 says cool
Put me down for US $100 for the cool side. Doctors without borders is my preferred charity if I need to pay.
I’m in for $500 on the warm side.
BTW, it’s been nearly 6 months since the last update and the last three months have been warmer than the 2001-2010 average. Better do an update once the September numbers are in – leave it too long after that and the warm side might be in the lead. Likely not, given the recent return to La Nina conditions, but I think we can safely assume La Nina won’t last forever.