Climate Bet For Charity

Will  the next 2011-2020 decade be warmer than the previous 2001 – 2010 decade?

FOLLOW PROGRESS HERE!

NTZ and cool readers are are pledging money and betting it will be cooler, or the same.

Warm readers, led by Rob Honeycutt, say it will be warmer, and so far have pledged $5200 on it.

We are now trying to get as many pledges for money as we can. The loser of the bet will have to pay the amount pladged to a charity for children in dire need, such as Children Hospice International or Doctors Without Borders.

So far NTZ and cool readers have pledged over $2,000 (10  Jan 2011), betting the next decade will be cooler. If the bet were decided today, then the loser would have to pay this amount to the charity (which has not been chosen yet).

Do you want to join the bet? Pledge an amount!

The bet

If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Rob Honeycutt and warmist betters will have to pay to charity the total amount that gets pledged by NTZ and readers betting on a cooler decade.

If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and coolist readers will have to pay everything they pledged to the charity.

Where, when and how do I bet?

You can bet simply by leaving a reader comment below telling how much you want to put down. I will then put your username and email address and amount on a list. I’ll be posting the updated list from time to time (without your e-mail address of course).  Please make your pledges before October 1, 2011.

Which dataset will decide the bet?

It has been agreed to use a composite of RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface. The result will be accepted without quibbling, as it is agreed that it’s the best we’ve got. The average of the two will decide the bet!

How and when do I pay if I lose?

Payment will be made when the bet is settled, i.e. January, 2021, or possibly earlier if it’s clear who the winner will be, but only with mutual agreement. If us coolists lose, then they will have to pay what we pledged directly to the yet-to-be-chosen charity organisation. You will be asked to pay when the bet is settled, i.e. January 2021.

WHICH CHARITY GETS THE MONEY?

As mentioned above, the charity organisation is yet to be chosen, but will (1) be one that both sides agree on, (2) help children in dire need (3) have low overhead and (4) be international.

What happens if the loser doesn’t pay?

If the loser of the bet refuses to pay, then he will be forever regarded as a useless deadbeat loudmouth scumbag with no honour. We have a bucket of hot tar and a sack of feathers ready.

How will we control if someone pays?

I’m keeping a list, and somehow we will get a statement from the charity organisation confirming that payment was indeed made.

What if something happens to me and I can’t pay?

Not your fault. You’ll be simply taken off the list and you will be remembered as a generous and honourable person.

So please pledge a nominal amount!

I hope that more readers here will pledge some money for this bet. Again it would be nice to have the warmists pay the full $5200 they’ve pledged thus far. Right now us coolists have about $2000, and so we need to get more coolist bets. Minimum bet is $10.

Minimum age?

You have to be 18 or older.

So what is it going to be? Cooler, or warmer?

(Last updated 10 Jan 2011)

49 responses to “Climate Bet For Charity”

  1. David Johnson

    Put me down for $20

    1. David Johnson

      Oops! $20 for a cooler decade that is
      =========================
      PG: Thanks!

  2. Viv Evans

    Pierre, another $50-00 from me – for the cool side.

    Betting on cool is cool, no?
    ============================
    PG: You’re cool for pledging, and betting on cool is cool. Thanks Viv – you’re on the cool list and will appear in the next update.

  3. grayman

    Pierre, I am going to start telling the other blogs i visit to come over and join in on the fun. I am sorry but i do not know how to link to your site but i will tell them to come on over as fast as my two fingers can do the dance on the keyboard.

  4. Rob Honeycutt

    What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.

    I get the feeling people are putting money down on the off chance there will be cooling.

    1. NeilM

      What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.

      Believe! – surely not Rob.
      Isn’t it about weighing up the evidence and coming to a rational conclusion?

  5. leo meyer

    What happens if the decades are either equally warm or we have contradicting outcomes in the report?

    1. Rob Honeycutt

      I wouldn’t worry about it too much. You guys are not going to win this one. ;-)

  6. sacculina

    $200 (US or Canadian)
    That the planet is going to be warmer on average in the next decade (2011-2020) than 2001-2010. Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’. My preferred charity is Medecins Sans Frontiers.
    sacculina

    1. NeilM

      Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’.

      My feelings as well – except I bet on the cool side.

      I guess it depends on where you live and how much it costs to heat your home. ;-)
      There’s also the rising cost of food to consider as reduced growing seasons affect crop yields etc.

  7. T. G. Watkins

    Sorry Rob. H it’s not personal. I never bet, not even on certainties. This is very unfair on you and your chums but, at least, it is for a good cause.
    If I’m allowed a general comment on the chosen charity, much as I admire medical colleagues who devote their careers to helping a small number of individuals it is clear that the greatest benefit comes from public health improvements i.e. clean water, sanitation and nutrition.
    Ultimately, a charity which educates and liberates women would be my choice but none exists in the places that need it.
    I pledge $100. win or lose! ( but R. H. pays as well if it is cooler)
    Great fun if it weren’t for the windmills etc. as time will clearly tell.
    Regards, TGW.
    =========================================
    PG: Thanks! It’s for a good cause…I think our chances are good. I’ll ut you down on the list, and will appear in the next update.

  8. Bill Dawson

    Up my bet from $5 to $50.

    Bill Dawson
    703 255 7053
    ====================================
    PG: Thanks Bill! Will appear in the next update.

  9. soilpest

    I’m in for $50.00 on the coolist side.
    =============================
    PG: Thanks soilpest. You’ll appear on the list in the next update ina few days.

  10. William Yarber

    I’m in for $250.00 on the cool side. Please contact me at my email address if you need additional information.
    ================================
    PG: Yeah! Thanks. I’ll put you down on the list and you’ll appear in the next update. Right now I have your e-mail address, and that’ll do for now. We’re gaining on the warmists.

  11. PJ

    $250 for another decade of cooling (the trend is your friend!). I’m guessing that in 10 years $250 will be about the cost of a deli sandwich.
    ============================
    PG: Thanks…the odds that it will be that devaluated are far greater than the IPCC warming scenarios coming true. You’re on the list and an update will appear in a few days.

  12. Rob Honeycutt

    I’m looking forward to the next update to see where we stand!

    1. Charles Zeller

      Rob, I’ll accept the risk of a Krakatoa scale eruption, and double your stake on the “warmist” side of the bet (There might be a confused other Rob Huneycutt who I just contacted via Facebook.)

      Mr. Gosselin, As a show of good faith I just donated half of the “wager” ($2,500) to Doctors Without Borders which I expect to be quickly matched by “coolist” pledges. The “warmers” are now up to $10,200. (Come on readers. :)

      Your site’s civility is refreshing, and your charity of choice is worthy of support by all. I’ll send you the donation receipt if you send me an email address.

      Charles Zeller

  13. Stephen Hayward

    Put me down for $200 for another decade of cooling.
    ========================================
    PG: You got it…you’re on the list and will show up in the next update. And you are right in saying “another decade of cooling”. Temps peaked in the late 90s, and are now gradually trending downwards. Problem with the warmists is that they like looking at charts upside down. Thanks for the pledge, Stephen.

  14. Scrooge

    New to site but please put me down for 50 usd. It will be warmer. I really don’t expect to lose but if I’m still around contact me anyway win or lose because they are good charities.
    =====================================
    PG: Thanks! You’re on the list.

  15. Adrian Smits

    You can put me down for 200 dollars on the cool side! This is like shooting fish in a barrel. Starting the decade with a la nina has got to give the edge to the cool side.

  16. Eric Logan

    $ 100 wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler.
    =====================================
    PG: – Thanks – you’re on the list you will appear in the next update.

  17. Adrian Smits

    200 hundred dollar wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler than the last decade.After all it was the war-mist in a thousand years. How could it repeat?
    ===============================
    PG: Thanks Adrian, you will appear on the next list in the next update. Also read the latest post!You’re already on the list. Do you wish to double?

  18. soilpest

    You can up my bet to $200 for the coolist side

  19. Brian H

    $500 on cooling. I don’t expect it to be close.

    If I’m losing, I’ll start saving in advance. But I have no worries.

    Hope my health holds for the decade! I’ve reached the age where there’s no reasonable assurance of that. :)

    1. Brian H

      PS;
      A month since the last update. What’s the score? ;)

    2. Brian H

      Where’s the first list link? I don’t see it anywhere.

  20. Harry Kal

    I bet the next decade will be cooler.
    For $100 USD.

    Harry

  21. Villabolo

    Why was March 1, 2011 chosen as the cut off date for pledges?

    Surely you can extend to December of 2011.

  22. matthu

    I am on the cool side – put me down for $100.

  23. E. Beaver

    $25 says cool

  24. chris y

    Put me down for US $100 for the cool side. Doctors without borders is my preferred charity if I need to pay.

  25. Jon Torrance

    I’m in for $500 on the warm side.

    BTW, it’s been nearly 6 months since the last update and the last three months have been warmer than the 2001-2010 average. Better do an update once the September numbers are in – leave it too long after that and the warm side might be in the lead. Likely not, given the recent return to La Nina conditions, but I think we can safely assume La Nina won’t last forever.

  26. Dr Norman Page

    Is it too late to join? If not put me down for $100 on the cool side.

  27. Berynn Schwerdt

    With 8 years to go, I don’t think it is at all clear just from the stats which way the current decade will land. I like your idea of expressing difference of opinion by pledging for charities, so why not keep the betting open (to 2015) and give them as much as possible?

    Will you allow a $100 pledge from me for a warmer decade?

  28. Harold Faulkner

    WHY THERE IS GLOBAL WARMING

    People in the USA, are being told by the government and media that global warming is man-made. If that is true, how can the government and media explain the high temperatures the earth has experienced in past years? Let us look back in the world’s history: for example, between roughly 900AD and 1350AD the temperatures were much higher than now. And, back then there were fewer people, no cars, no electric utilities, and no factories, etc. So what caused the earth’s heat? Could it be a natural occurrence? The temperature graph at the bottom of this article shows the temperatures of the earth before Christ to 2040.

    In the book THE DISCOVERERS published in February 1985 by Daniel J. Boorstin, beginning in chapter 28, it goes into detail about Eric the Red, the father of Lief Ericsson, and how he discovered an island covered in green grass.

    In approximately 983AD, Eric the Red committed murder, and was banished from Iceland for three years. Eric the Red sailed 500 miles west from Iceland and discovered an island covered in GREEN grass, which he named Greenland. Greenland reminded Eric the Red of his native Norway because of the grass, game animals, and a sea full of fish. Even the air provided a harvest of birds. Eric the Red and his crew started laying out sites for farms and homesteads, as there was no sign of earlier human habitation.

    When his banishment expired, Eric the Red returned to congested Iceland to gather Viking settlers. In 986, Eric the Red set sail with an emigrant fleet of twenty-five ships carrying men, women, and domestic animals. Unfortunately, only fourteen ships survived the stormy passage, which carried about four-hundred-fifty immigrants plus the farm animals. The immigrants settled on the southern-west tip and up the western coast of Greenland.

    After the year 1200AD, the Earth’s and Greenland’s climate grew colder; ice started building up on the southern tip of Greenland. Before the end of 1300AD, the Viking settlements were just a memory. You can find the above by searching Google. One link is:

    http://www.greenland.com/en/about-greenland/kultur-sjael/historie/vikingetiden/erik-den-roede.aspx

    The following quote you can also read about why there is global warming. This is from the book EINSTEIN’S UNIVERSE, Page 63, written by Nigel Calder in 1972, and updated in 1982.

    “The reckoning of planetary motions is a venerable science. Nowadays it tells us, for example, how gravity causes the ice to advance or retreat on the Earth during the ice ages. The gravity of the Moon and (to a lesser extent) of the Sun makes the Earth’s axis swivel around like a tilted spinning top. Other planets of the Solar System, especially Jupiter, Mars and Venus, influence the Earth’s tilt and the shape of its orbit, in a more-or-less cyclic fashion, with significant effects on the intensity of sunshine falling on different regions of the Earth during the various seasons. Every so often a fortunate attitude and orbit of the Earth combine to drench the ice sheets in sunshine as at the end of the most recent ice age, about ten thousand years ago. But now our relatively benign interglacial is coming to an end, as gravity continues to toy with our planet.”

    The above points out that the universe is too huge and the earth is too small for the earth’s population to have any effect on the earth’s temperature. The earth’s temperature is a function of the sun’s temperature and the effects from the many massive planets in the universe, i.e., “The gravity of the Moon and (to a lesser extent) of the Sun makes the Earth’s axis swivel around like a tilted spinning top. Other planets of the Solar System, especially Jupiter, Mars and Venus, influence the Earth’s tilt and the shape of its orbit, in a more-or-less cyclic fashion, with significant effects on the intensity of sunshine falling on different regions of the Earth during the various seasons.”
    Read below about carbon dioxide, which we need in order to exist. You can find the article below at:
    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html.

    FUN FACTS about CARBON DIOXIDE.

    Of the 186 billion tons of carbon from CO2 that enter earth’s atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in earth’s oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants.

    At 380 parts per million CO2 is a minor constituent of earth’s atmosphere–less than 4/100ths of 1% of all gases present. Compared to former geologic times, earth’s current atmosphere is CO2- impoverished.

    CO2 is odorless, colorless, and tasteless. Plants absorb CO2 and emit oxygen as a waste product. Humans and animals breathe oxygen and emit CO2 as a waste product. Carbon dioxide is a nutrient, not a pollutant, and all life– plants and animals alike– benefit from more of it. All life on earth is carbon-based and CO2 is an essential ingredient. When plant-growers want to stimulate plant growth, they introduce more carbon dioxide.

    CO2 that goes into the atmosphere does not stay there, but continuously recycled by terrestrial plant life and earth’s oceans– the great retirement home for most terrestrial carbon dioxide.

    If we are in a global warming crisis today, even the most aggressive and costly proposals for limiting industrial carbon dioxide emissions and all other government proposals and taxes would have a negligible effect on global climate!

    The government is lying, trying to use global warming to limit, and tax its citizens through “cap and trade” and other tax schemes for the government’s benefit. We, the people cannot allow this to happen.

    If the Earth’s temperature graph is not shown above, you can see this temperature graph at the link:
    http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

  29. Jules Dingle

    $200 for a warmer decade

    proceeds to Doctors without Borders

    Jules- UK [US $]

  30. David Flick

    If it’s not too late to join, put me down for $100 for a cooler decade.

  31. David Flick

    Thanks, but it was worth a try. Tell you what, though, if we should happen to lose, which I’m confident that we won’t, I’ll still contribute $100.00 to the the pot…

  32. Mike Haseler (Scottish Sceptic)

    I would strongly suggest that rather than “warmer” or “cooler” the appropriate bet would be “nearer to no warming than the mid point of the IPCC prediction.

    At the very least it should be closer to no warming than the lower limit of the IPCC prediction which from 2001 has been the midpoint between 0.14C/decade and 0.0C/decade.

  33. Freddie Stoller

    Is there any chance to update? Seems to me that the last update was more than a year ago. Thanks 4 everything. Fred

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