Climate Bet For Charity

Will  the next 2011-2020 decade be warmer than the previous 2001 – 2010 decade?

FOLLOW PROGRESS HERE!

NTZ and cool readers are are pledging money and betting it will be cooler, or the same.

Warm readers, led by Rob Honeycutt, say it will be warmer, and so far have pledged $5200 on it.

We are now trying to get as many pledges for money as we can. The loser of the bet will have to pay the amount pladged to a charity for children in dire need, such as Children Hospice International or Doctors Without Borders.

So far NTZ and cool readers have pledged over $2,000 (10  Jan 2011), betting the next decade will be cooler. If the bet were decided today, then the loser would have to pay this amount to the charity (which has not been chosen yet).

Do you want to join the bet? Pledge an amount!

The bet

If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Rob Honeycutt and warmist betters will have to pay to charity the total amount that gets pledged by NTZ and readers betting on a cooler decade.

If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and coolist readers will have to pay everything they pledged to the charity.

Where, when and how do I bet?

You can bet simply by leaving a reader comment below telling how much you want to put down. I will then put your username and email address and amount on a list. I’ll be posting the updated list from time to time (without your e-mail address of course).  Please make your pledges before October 1, 2011.

Which dataset will decide the bet?

It has been agreed to use a composite of RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface. The result will be accepted without quibbling, as it is agreed that it’s the best we’ve got. The average of the two will decide the bet!

How and when do I pay if I lose?

Payment will be made when the bet is settled, i.e. January, 2021, or possibly earlier if it’s clear who the winner will be, but only with mutual agreement. If us coolists lose, then they will have to pay what we pledged directly to the yet-to-be-chosen charity organisation. You will be asked to pay when the bet is settled, i.e. January 2021.

WHICH CHARITY GETS THE MONEY?

As mentioned above, the charity organisation is yet to be chosen, but will (1) be one that both sides agree on, (2) help children in dire need (3) have low overhead and (4) be international.

What happens if the loser doesn’t pay?

If the loser of the bet refuses to pay, then he will be forever regarded as a useless deadbeat loudmouth scumbag with no honour. We have a bucket of hot tar and a sack of feathers ready.

How will we control if someone pays?

I’m keeping a list, and somehow we will get a statement from the charity organisation confirming that payment was indeed made.

What if something happens to me and I can’t pay?

Not your fault. You’ll be simply taken off the list and you will be remembered as a generous and honourable person.

So please pledge a nominal amount!

I hope that more readers here will pledge some money for this bet. Again it would be nice to have the warmists pay the full $5200 they’ve pledged thus far. Right now us coolists have about $2000, and so we need to get more coolist bets. Minimum bet is $10.

Minimum age?

You have to be 18 or older.

So what is it going to be? Cooler, or warmer?

(Last updated 10 Jan 2011)

82 thoughts on “Climate Bet For Charity”

  1. Pierre, another $50-00 from me – for the cool side.

    Betting on cool is cool, no?
    ============================
    PG: You’re cool for pledging, and betting on cool is cool. Thanks Viv – you’re on the cool list and will appear in the next update.

  2. Pierre, I am going to start telling the other blogs i visit to come over and join in on the fun. I am sorry but i do not know how to link to your site but i will tell them to come on over as fast as my two fingers can do the dance on the keyboard.

  3. What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.

    I get the feeling people are putting money down on the off chance there will be cooling.

    1. I’m happy for every bet that comes in. $20 is a nice pledge. For many of us, the science is not settled, like it is in your view.
      Why are you in such a hurry to lose your money?
      This has been going on for only a week and we are already over $2000. I think it’s a great start. What do you think about accepting pledges for half a year? What do you say?

      1. Absolutely. In fact, since we just came off a record high year I’m expecting the next year to be slightly cooler, so let’s keep it open for all of 2011 if needed to get this up to the $5000.

        I’m actually hoping we get to the $5k sooner than later so I have the motivation to go out and roust up some more “warmists” to contribute to this.

        Gotta put these bets in context though. $20 over 10 years is half a penny a day. Not much of a commitment.

    2. What’s all this $20 stuff! Come on people, either you believe this or not.

      Believe! – surely not Rob.
      Isn’t it about weighing up the evidence and coming to a rational conclusion?

    1. If they are equal, then the coolists win because there will have been no warming. The average of RSS and UAH will be used, and so there will be no conflicts.

  4. $200 (US or Canadian)
    That the planet is going to be warmer on average in the next decade (2011-2020) than 2001-2010. Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’. My preferred charity is Medecins Sans Frontiers.
    sacculina

    1. Thanks for the pledge. I’ll put you down on the list. (PS: Be a little more optimistic…it can only get warmer or cooler, and cooler is really not very favourable- especially in Canada!).

    2. Sadly, and unsually, a bet that I do not wish to ‘win’.

      My feelings as well – except I bet on the cool side.

      I guess it depends on where you live and how much it costs to heat your home. 😉
      There’s also the rising cost of food to consider as reduced growing seasons affect crop yields etc.

  5. Sorry Rob. H it’s not personal. I never bet, not even on certainties. This is very unfair on you and your chums but, at least, it is for a good cause.
    If I’m allowed a general comment on the chosen charity, much as I admire medical colleagues who devote their careers to helping a small number of individuals it is clear that the greatest benefit comes from public health improvements i.e. clean water, sanitation and nutrition.
    Ultimately, a charity which educates and liberates women would be my choice but none exists in the places that need it.
    I pledge $100. win or lose! ( but R. H. pays as well if it is cooler)
    Great fun if it weren’t for the windmills etc. as time will clearly tell.
    Regards, TGW.
    =========================================
    PG: Thanks! It’s for a good cause…I think our chances are good. I’ll ut you down on the list, and will appear in the next update.

  6. Up my bet from $5 to $50.

    Bill Dawson
    703 255 7053
    ====================================
    PG: Thanks Bill! Will appear in the next update.

  7. I’m in for $50.00 on the coolist side.
    =============================
    PG: Thanks soilpest. You’ll appear on the list in the next update ina few days.

  8. I’m in for $250.00 on the cool side. Please contact me at my email address if you need additional information.
    ================================
    PG: Yeah! Thanks. I’ll put you down on the list and you’ll appear in the next update. Right now I have your e-mail address, and that’ll do for now. We’re gaining on the warmists.

  9. $250 for another decade of cooling (the trend is your friend!). I’m guessing that in 10 years $250 will be about the cost of a deli sandwich.
    ============================
    PG: Thanks…the odds that it will be that devaluated are far greater than the IPCC warming scenarios coming true. You’re on the list and an update will appear in a few days.

    1. Rob, I’ll accept the risk of a Krakatoa scale eruption, and double your stake on the “warmist” side of the bet (There might be a confused other Rob Huneycutt who I just contacted via Facebook.)

      Mr. Gosselin, As a show of good faith I just donated half of the “wager” ($2,500) to Doctors Without Borders which I expect to be quickly matched by “coolist” pledges. The “warmers” are now up to $10,200. (Come on readers. :)

      Your site’s civility is refreshing, and your charity of choice is worthy of support by all. I’ll send you the donation receipt if you send me an email address.

      Charles Zeller

  10. Put me down for $200 for another decade of cooling.
    ========================================
    PG: You got it…you’re on the list and will show up in the next update. And you are right in saying “another decade of cooling”. Temps peaked in the late 90s, and are now gradually trending downwards. Problem with the warmists is that they like looking at charts upside down. Thanks for the pledge, Stephen.

  11. New to site but please put me down for 50 usd. It will be warmer. I really don’t expect to lose but if I’m still around contact me anyway win or lose because they are good charities.
    =====================================
    PG: Thanks! You’re on the list.

  12. You can put me down for 200 dollars on the cool side! This is like shooting fish in a barrel. Starting the decade with a la nina has got to give the edge to the cool side.

  13. $ 100 wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler.
    =====================================
    PG: – Thanks – you’re on the list you will appear in the next update.

  14. 200 hundred dollar wager to charity that the next decade will be cooler than the last decade.After all it was the war-mist in a thousand years. How could it repeat?
    ===============================
    PG: Thanks Adrian, you will appear on the next list in the next update. Also read the latest post!You’re already on the list. Do you wish to double?

  15. $500 on cooling. I don’t expect it to be close.

    If I’m losing, I’ll start saving in advance. But I have no worries.

    Hope my health holds for the decade! I’ve reached the age where there’s no reasonable assurance of that. :)

  16. Why was March 1, 2011 chosen as the cut off date for pledges?

    Surely you can extend to December of 2011.

  17. I’m in for $500 on the warm side.

    BTW, it’s been nearly 6 months since the last update and the last three months have been warmer than the 2001-2010 average. Better do an update once the September numbers are in – leave it too long after that and the warm side might be in the lead. Likely not, given the recent return to La Nina conditions, but I think we can safely assume La Nina won’t last forever.

  18. With 8 years to go, I don’t think it is at all clear just from the stats which way the current decade will land. I like your idea of expressing difference of opinion by pledging for charities, so why not keep the betting open (to 2015) and give them as much as possible?

    Will you allow a $100 pledge from me for a warmer decade?

  19. WHY THERE IS GLOBAL WARMING

    People in the USA, are being told by the government and media that global warming is man-made. If that is true, how can the government and media explain the high temperatures the earth has experienced in past years? Let us look back in the world’s history: for example, between roughly 900AD and 1350AD the temperatures were much higher than now. And, back then there were fewer people, no cars, no electric utilities, and no factories, etc. So what caused the earth’s heat? Could it be a natural occurrence? The temperature graph at the bottom of this article shows the temperatures of the earth before Christ to 2040.

    In the book THE DISCOVERERS published in February 1985 by Daniel J. Boorstin, beginning in chapter 28, it goes into detail about Eric the Red, the father of Lief Ericsson, and how he discovered an island covered in green grass.

    In approximately 983AD, Eric the Red committed murder, and was banished from Iceland for three years. Eric the Red sailed 500 miles west from Iceland and discovered an island covered in GREEN grass, which he named Greenland. Greenland reminded Eric the Red of his native Norway because of the grass, game animals, and a sea full of fish. Even the air provided a harvest of birds. Eric the Red and his crew started laying out sites for farms and homesteads, as there was no sign of earlier human habitation.

    When his banishment expired, Eric the Red returned to congested Iceland to gather Viking settlers. In 986, Eric the Red set sail with an emigrant fleet of twenty-five ships carrying men, women, and domestic animals. Unfortunately, only fourteen ships survived the stormy passage, which carried about four-hundred-fifty immigrants plus the farm animals. The immigrants settled on the southern-west tip and up the western coast of Greenland.

    After the year 1200AD, the Earth’s and Greenland’s climate grew colder; ice started building up on the southern tip of Greenland. Before the end of 1300AD, the Viking settlements were just a memory. You can find the above by searching Google. One link is:

    http://www.greenland.com/en/about-greenland/kultur-sjael/historie/vikingetiden/erik-den-roede.aspx

    The following quote you can also read about why there is global warming. This is from the book EINSTEIN’S UNIVERSE, Page 63, written by Nigel Calder in 1972, and updated in 1982.

    “The reckoning of planetary motions is a venerable science. Nowadays it tells us, for example, how gravity causes the ice to advance or retreat on the Earth during the ice ages. The gravity of the Moon and (to a lesser extent) of the Sun makes the Earth’s axis swivel around like a tilted spinning top. Other planets of the Solar System, especially Jupiter, Mars and Venus, influence the Earth’s tilt and the shape of its orbit, in a more-or-less cyclic fashion, with significant effects on the intensity of sunshine falling on different regions of the Earth during the various seasons. Every so often a fortunate attitude and orbit of the Earth combine to drench the ice sheets in sunshine as at the end of the most recent ice age, about ten thousand years ago. But now our relatively benign interglacial is coming to an end, as gravity continues to toy with our planet.”

    The above points out that the universe is too huge and the earth is too small for the earth’s population to have any effect on the earth’s temperature. The earth’s temperature is a function of the sun’s temperature and the effects from the many massive planets in the universe, i.e., “The gravity of the Moon and (to a lesser extent) of the Sun makes the Earth’s axis swivel around like a tilted spinning top. Other planets of the Solar System, especially Jupiter, Mars and Venus, influence the Earth’s tilt and the shape of its orbit, in a more-or-less cyclic fashion, with significant effects on the intensity of sunshine falling on different regions of the Earth during the various seasons.”
    Read below about carbon dioxide, which we need in order to exist. You can find the article below at:
    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html.

    FUN FACTS about CARBON DIOXIDE.

    Of the 186 billion tons of carbon from CO2 that enter earth’s atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in earth’s oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants.

    At 380 parts per million CO2 is a minor constituent of earth’s atmosphere–less than 4/100ths of 1% of all gases present. Compared to former geologic times, earth’s current atmosphere is CO2- impoverished.

    CO2 is odorless, colorless, and tasteless. Plants absorb CO2 and emit oxygen as a waste product. Humans and animals breathe oxygen and emit CO2 as a waste product. Carbon dioxide is a nutrient, not a pollutant, and all life– plants and animals alike– benefit from more of it. All life on earth is carbon-based and CO2 is an essential ingredient. When plant-growers want to stimulate plant growth, they introduce more carbon dioxide.

    CO2 that goes into the atmosphere does not stay there, but continuously recycled by terrestrial plant life and earth’s oceans– the great retirement home for most terrestrial carbon dioxide.

    If we are in a global warming crisis today, even the most aggressive and costly proposals for limiting industrial carbon dioxide emissions and all other government proposals and taxes would have a negligible effect on global climate!

    The government is lying, trying to use global warming to limit, and tax its citizens through “cap and trade” and other tax schemes for the government’s benefit. We, the people cannot allow this to happen.

    If the Earth’s temperature graph is not shown above, you can see this temperature graph at the link:
    http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

  20. Thanks, but it was worth a try. Tell you what, though, if we should happen to lose, which I’m confident that we won’t, I’ll still contribute $100.00 to the the pot…

  21. I would strongly suggest that rather than “warmer” or “cooler” the appropriate bet would be “nearer to no warming than the mid point of the IPCC prediction.

    At the very least it should be closer to no warming than the lower limit of the IPCC prediction which from 2001 has been the midpoint between 0.14C/decade and 0.0C/decade.

  22. Is there any chance to update? Seems to me that the last update was more than a year ago. Thanks 4 everything. Fred

  23. Why is the betting closed now? Surely as the decade goes on it will be more evident that global warming is nonsense so why not allow the bet to show how views are changing based on what is being measured rather than the propaganda of the IPCC.

    1. I see you’ve robbed the name of climate science’s leading blog. I guess it’s the only way for you to get any kind of traffic.

  24. Why did none of you anti-science clowns take my US$1,000 wager? For the past four years I had a US$1,000 wager that backed the proposition that by end of year 2016 there would be a new record high global average temperature— and I offered that wager to many thousands of deniers: none of you clowns would accept the wager. This showed you don’t believe what you claim to believe.

    I pledge here and now US$1,000 on the proposition that the decade of the 2010s will be warmer than the decade of the 2000s. The 2000s was 14.56c, and so far this decade is +0.06c warmer. The 2010s will be about +0.16c warmer than the 2000s.

    Mark me done for $1,000 on the pro-evidence, pro-reality, pro-science side.

    1. Your is a weather wager, and not a climate one.
      I got you down for a warmer decade.
      According to RSS and UAH, 2010s are running slightly COOLER…and so I wish you lots of luck with your 0.16°C warmer prediction 6 years from now. (Note that 0.16°C per decade is still well below what the climate doomsday people are pissing in their pants about.

    2. Desertphile 8. February 2015 at 15:40 | Permalink | Reply
      “Mark me done for $1,000 on the pro-evidence, pro-reality, pro-science side.”

      Evidence shows no warming over 16 to 18 years, steeply rising CO2.
      Science tells us that when modeling a chaotic system with an iterative model of finite resolution, one gets an error that grows exponentially over time.

      So, you bet on no warming?

          1. Please look at the temperature anomaly for the entire planet: that is what this wager is about. I assume you believe the wager is about one portion of the warming planetary systems.

            This decade, even though only four years in to it, is already warmer than the previous decade. Paranoid conspiracy alarmists are, in this comment section, stating they will wager against an event that has already happened. That is not the behavior of sane human beings.

          2. “Please look at the temperature anomaly for the entire planet”

            So you mean we use UAH or RSS, and not GISS or HadCrut.?

            Did you know that a ZERO trend is statistically supportable in RSS for 25.5 years?

          3. And that RSS has a negative trend for 15 years?

            And that 2014 was the 6th warmest in the RSS record.

            Did you know that USCRN is COOLING at the rate of 0.5ºC/decade since it was established in 2005?

            These are the REAL statistics that you are up against.

            And with the sun having a snooze, you are going to look VERY foolish ! :-)

        1. “Is this meant as a joke?”

          Yes, “climate science™” is a joke.

          Yep, and you have fallen for it hook line and sinker. !

      1. “So, you bet on no warming?”

        No, my pledge is on the side of the evidence and therefore the world’s scientists. US$1,000. It is the same amount I have been trying to give away for over four years, but no denier would accept the wager.

        1. “On the side of the evidence” is an idiotic statement to make. Who told you to speak in idiotic terms? Ask him for a refund.

          You have to specify whether you take the zero temperature trend of the past 18 years as the model that you expect to describe the future. Please learn to express yourself in an unambiguous way.

          1. “‘On the side of the evidence’ is an idiotic statement to make.”

            Yes, people who lack evidence for their beliefs will indeed insist the statement is idiotic. So?

            My wager is US$1,000 on the proposition every climatologist and physicist in the world backs, and all of the evidence backs. It is the same US$1,000 that I have help in escrow for the past five years that I have offered to anyone and everyone if they would put up their US$1,000 on the contrary proposition.

            For five years I offered US$1,000 on the proposition that a new record high global average temperature would be set by end of year 2016. I offered the wager to tens of thousands of deniers, and NONE OF YOU CLOWNS WOULD ACCEPT THE WAGER. This showed that deniers do not believe what they assert.

        2. Are you in contact with Gavin, by any chance?

          .. a rigged bet, is never a true bet.

          And we have seen how much past temperatures have been “adjusted” downwards.

    3. “Mark me done for $1,000 on the pro-evidence, pro-reality, pro-science side”

      Oh, so you are betting its going to cool.?

      Because that is where the evidence is pointing.

  25. > From UAH:
    >
    > (root@localhost) [test]> select truncate(year/10,0)*10 as D,avg(anom)
    > from uah_globe group by D;
    > +——+———————+
    > | 1970 | -0.178461536908379 |
    > | 1980 | -0.144666666459913 |
    > | 1990 | -0.0388333334121853 |
    > | 2000 | 0.142833333369344 |
    > | 2010 | 0.243333335500211 | +——+———————+
    >
    > 4 times out of 4 for the TLT. The old induction rule says prob
    > is then (4+1)/(4+2) = 83%.
    >
    > From NASA’s LOTI:
    >
    > +——+———+
    > | 1970 | 0.3417 |
    > | 1980 | 18.7167 |
    > | 1990 | 32.2833 |
    > | 2000 | 52.1333 |
    > | 2010 | 55.6897 | +——+———+
    > 4 times out of 4 for surf temp. Another 83%.
    >
    > 83%*83% gets 97%

    Deniers are claiming they will wager money against a proposition that has already happened and is happening at p=0.97 and that behavior amazes me. I also find that behavior spooky.

    1. um, did UAH temps exist in 1970?

      And with Hansen then Schmidt throwing a bucket of ice on anything before 1980..

      get serious….your scam is not going to work, little child. !

  26. @desertphile

    You do realize this bet you keep chiming in on about is 1..too late, and 2 doesn’t comport at all to what was said here.

    Being as La Nina is coming as well if you wish to bet in the same way this bet was wagered:

    2004-2014 vs 2014-2024

    I would be happy to match and exceed your “bet” of 1k dollars. I will do 1500 dollars to the charity of your choice with a receipt and expect the same from you.

    The bet will use the UAH RSS composite, the same as the current bet.

    I’d feel bad if I didn’t tell you, you realize right now the “coolists” are winning this bet 4 years in, by a decent bit on a composite index. These are the most accurate indices we currently have, and I will not have your scamming as you seem to wish to do. So it will be as straightforward as that. Exact same terms as the bet negotiated here long ago, just fast forward four years. That is plain and simple, even for you.

    Put up or shutup.

  27. With the one change of being as 2014 is past, it would be 2015-2025, all future events with the exception of a few months.

  28. coolists torture language:

    If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Rob Honeycutt and warmist betters will have to pay to charity the total amount that gets pledged by NTZ and readers betting on a cooler decade.

    If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and coolist readers will have to pay everything they pledged to the charity.

    Already this decade is .07 degrees WARMER than the previous decade. The rate of warming may not be as fast, but this decade is definitely warmer.
    If the bet is that this decade will be warmer than put me down for $100. If this bet is that the rate of warming will be greater, than I will not bet.

    The problem is that coolists lie and distort language. On this site
    http://www.kiwithinker.com/2015/01/the-decadal-global-climate-bet-dec-2014-update-4-years-into-the-race/

    the claim is that the two trends are close. They are not. What is close is the rate of warming. I will not bet on the rate of warming. I will bet the $100 on this decade being warmer than the previous decade.

    So which is it?

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