The forcing uncertainties and lack of observational measurements in the top-to-bottom global ocean preclude an assessment that modern warmth is due to anthropogenic activities.
Key points from a new paper (Gebbie, 2021):
• 93% of the changes to the Earth’s energy budget, manifested as warming of the Earth system, are expressed in the global ocean. Just 1% of global warming is atmospheric.
• Even with the advent of “quasi-global” temperature sampling of the ocean since 2005 (ARGO), these floats “do not measure below 2,000-m depth.” This means that temperature changes in “approximately half the ocean’s volume” are still not being measured today.
• To detect the effects of anthropogenic forcing, it would require energy budget imbalance measurement precision of 0.1 W/m² at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Uncertainty in the forcing changes affecting climate are ±4 W/m², meaning that uncertainty is about 80 times greater than an anthropogenic signal detection.
• Past changes in global ocean heat content, such as the last deglaciation, have been 20 times larger than modern changes.
• Ocean heat storage during the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, or MCA) was much greater than modern. Modern global ocean heat uptake is “just one-third” of what is required to reach the levels attained during Medieval times.
Images Source: Gebbie, 2021
One final point. Dr. Gebbie asserts that approximately 15% of modern global warming (ocean) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that “persistently heat the ocean.” Interestingly, he also assesses that the value attained for geothermal heating of the ocean, 87 mW/m², is similar to that which is required to end a glacial period (melt ice sheets) and transition into an interglacial.
Images Source: Gebbie, 2021
Considering the ocean bottom waters warmed up 2°C from 19,000 to 17,000 years ago about 1,000 years before the surface warmed (and CO2 began rising) (Stott et al., 2007), and that Arctic bottom waters were 6-10°C warmer than today at the beginning of the Holocene about 10,000 years ago (Beierlein et al., 2015), geothermal heat fluxes could potentially explain a large portion of glacial-interglacial transitions – as well as millennial-scale global ocean temperature changes.
Image Source: Stott et al., 2007
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Outstanding, as usual, thank you Kenneth and Pierre.
It’s heartening to see the truth coming out about CO2’s innocence. Thankfully there are still some principled scientists, uncompromised by the ‘man-made’ warming fraud.
Meanwhile our ‘leaders’, ‘guided’ by ‘scientists’ (cf. covid), accelerate their wrecking of our parklands, farmlands and seaways with hopelessly inefficient, uneconomic and needless solar ‘parks’ and wind ‘farms’; and spending trillions of our tax-dollars bizarrely trying to (1) reduce CO2 (in reality a life-giving gas that has no effect on climate and is greening our Earth before our very eyes), supposedly to (2) limit warming (in reality highly beneficial to society, Sun-driven, and soon to end, lagging a few decades behind (by ocean thermal inertia) our Sun’s recently-ended Grand Maximum (1937-2004), the strongest in 10,000 years).
The IPCC is catastrophically wrong on both counts. Can they really be that incompetent? Or is it a subterfuge with a sinister motive? Here’s a clue: ‘climate crisis’ IPCC and ‘covid crisis’ WHO are both UNITED NATIONS.
More CO2 truths (5-minute read) …
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343818917_Mann_hockey_stick_ironically_proves_the_Sun_not_CO2_drives_climate
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341622566_IPCC_three_pillars_of_man-made_global_warming_collapsed
The IPPC is a bureaucratic organisation. People want to keep their jobs and proliferate departments . The global warming theory kept them in work. Much the same can be said for the rest of the U N.
“Jobs for the Boys” 🙂
or read “Parkinsons Law” for a humorous review of the way government departments proliferate. Human nature doesn’t change.
Ocean Heat Uptake is an assumptive phrase. It’s more like the atmosphere is uptaking ocean heat, ocean heat that came from geothermal.
http://phzoe.com/2020/03/11/40-years-of-climate-change/
“Ocean Heat Uptake is an assumptive phrase. It’s more like the atmosphere is uptaking ocean heat”
The author of this study even acknowledges 1% of the heat changes in the Earth system are atmospheric. 93% of heat energy changes are manifested in the ocean.
So why is it thought that a heat reservoir 93 times larger than another heat reservoir is soaking up the heat from that tiny source and not the other way around?
Good point. Aside from that, I honestly don’t understand the Gebbie paper. First he uses an old flux value of 87 mW/m². Second, I cringe whenever I see flux values mixed with age of rocks. That’s a pseudoscience to me.
As far I’m concerned, tiny heat fluxes mean nothing to an energy budget:
http://phzoe.com/2020/04/29/the-irrelevance-of-geothermal-heat-flux/
Have you seen my latest?
http://phzoe.com/2020/10/05/geothermal-to-the-moon/
But it’s still nice that geothermal is given SOME credit in the literature. And thanks always for sharing 🙂
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-034137
The Darwinian theory of the origin of atolls questioned.
worth a look as it references glacial sea levels.
Humans don’t control atmospheric CO2 levels — in the main, oceans do!
Atmospheric CO2 does not control the weather or the climate — the radiative energy from it is too pifflingly small!
As these papers show so called ‘global warming’ is largely caused by the action of ocean cycles retaining and releasing geological energy (and solar energy) as heat over time.
QED, Humans do not control the climate — Climate controls humans!
Most of the weather and short term climate (less than 60 years) we experience is caused by the effects of the sun, as it sets-up the large temperature difference that exists between the equator and the poles. This differential ensures the energetic but quite chaotic, movement of massive volumes of air and moisture — aka weather and climate.
When geological events are large and persistent enough (as these papers explain) then both weather and climate patterns can become very disrupted leading to significant climate change.
I find
“Dr. Gebbie asserts that approximately 15% of modern global warming (ocean) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that “persistently heat the ocean.” ”
interesting because , unlike the atmosphere and the solid Earth the oceans are not at all in the balance between gravitational and heat energy . The temperature gradient that one sees in both atmosphere and solid planet due to the adiabatic tradeoff of gravitational ” potential ” and kinetic ” thermal ” energy is absent on any local scale .
I think this has to be due to polar-equitorial convection .
Thus the flow from the sea floor to the bottoms of oceans .
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[…] New Study Effectively Eliminates Confidence In Human Attribution For Modern Global Warming […]
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thanks for the sharing
thanks for the sharing