Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming In The 20th And 21st Centuries

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Global sea surface temperatures have only been warming at a rate of about 0.06°C per decade since 1950.

According to Dieng et al., 2017, global sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled slightly (-0.006°C/decade) from 2003 to 2013. This reduced the overall 1950-2014 warming rate to 0.059°C per decade.

Image Source: Dieng et al., 2017

The NCAR/HadCRUT4 global SST record from buoys and ARGO floats also show only modest warming in the last 3 decades. The natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event is mostly responsible for the overall increasing rate.

Image Source: NCAR

Since 1871 there has been only modest warming in the Pacific and Atlantic (Zanna et al., 2019). Perhaps the Indian Ocean has a clearly detectable warming trend.

Image Source: Zanna et al., 2019

According to the Oceans 2k (2015) collection of globally reconstructed sea surface temperatures over the last 2000 years, there has been no alarming rise in temperatures that stands out (like a hockey stick) during the 20th century either.

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015 and Supplementary Information

On a deeper note, from 1955 to 201o the 0-2000 m ocean only warmed 0.09°C (Levitus et al., 2012).

Image Source: Levitus et al., 2012

So why, exactly, should we be panicked and alarmed about any of this?

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7 responses to “Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming In The 20th And 21st Centuries”

  1. Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming in the 20th And 21st Centuries – Climate- Science.press

    […] Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming In The 20th And 21st Centuries […]

  2. CO2isLife

    Please find a research paper that demonstrates the 15-micron LWIR can warm water. Visible radiation warms the oceans, not LWIR. 15-micron LWIR is consistent with a black body of -80C. Ice emits higher energy LWIR of 11.5 Micron. Evidence of warming isn’t evidence CO2 is causing the warming.

  3. Senex

    0.06% must surely be less than the margin of error in the source data?

  4. oebele bruinsma

    As we just passed an (sunspot) active phase of the sun, we might expect a decline of sea water temperature of around 0.06 degrees C in the next seventy years or so. Should we worry??

  5. CO2isLife

    Climate Science is a Science. You have an observation that the oceans are warming. What causes water to warm? Penetrating visible radiation between 0.4 and 0.7 Microns. That is very high energy short wavelength EM Radiation. Ice emits LWIR of about 10.5-micron, room temperature is 9.5-microns. CO2 emits 15-micron LWIR. That is very very low energy, lower than what ice emits. If CO2 could warm water, ice would melt itself. CO2 sibliminates at -80 C, which is consistent with the absorption of 15-Micron LWIR or -80C. If CO2 could actually warm water, there would be millions of experiments isolating 15-micron LWIR and applying it to H2O and measuring the warming. You can’t and won’t find those experiments anywhere. Note I say isolating 15-micron LWIR. There are experiments out there but they are done using IR absorbing glass container filled with pure CO2, and they don’t isolate 15-micron LWIR.

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