Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Narrative Collapses…Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm

“[N]o numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat.” – Gudmundsson et al., 2023

It was only months ago that mainstream US journalists published articles claiming the Thwaites “Doomsday” Glacier has only “a few more years” until it collapses into the sea (ABC News, CBS News).

This “spine-chilling” catastrophe with “global implications” would, it was claimed, raise sea levels by the equivalent of 10 feet, or 3,048 mm.

Image Source: ABC News, CBS News

But per a study (Gudmundsson et al., 2023) published online yesterday, scientists need to consider the buttressing of the ice shelves (affecting ice flow into the ocean itself), as this significantly impacts estimates of ice-melt contributions to sea level rise.

Instead of 3,048 mm (10 feet) of sea level rise contribution from the complete removal of Thwaites, the authors assessed it would be closer to a “negligibly small” 1-2 mm over the next 50 to 100 years. In other words, the notorious “Doomsday” glacier is doomless, with “no discernible effect” associated with future mass losses.

The authors even go on to say that there is no modeling work showing Thwaites Glacier is “currently undergoing an irreversible retreat,” and there is “no reason to expect a possible disintegration of the [Thwaites] ice shelf to meaningfully impact SLR [sea level rise] projections.”

One of the more commonly-cited alarmist claims has just been bushwhacked.

Image Source: Gudmundsson et al., 2023

9 responses to “Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Narrative Collapses…Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm”

  1. John Hultquist

    The character in the TV series “Get Smart”, Maxwell Smart, used the phrase “missed it by that much” when things went really wrong.
    Quotes, images, and videos are on the web.

  2. Eric Schrader

    Just look at it as one big ice cube coming our way. No big deal.

  3. Roald J. Larsen

    It’s not coming “our way” – It is being pressed out by gravity and by new mass build up of ice and snow at the top. The mass being pressed out to sea is the equivalent to the mass building-up.

    More precipitation, i.e. more ice and snow at the top means the glaciers grows – also out to the sea, and as time goes by larger pieces will break off.

    100% natural, not controlled by man, most people do not even understand this process.

  4. Frequent Met Office ‘Adjustments’ To Past Temps Cast Doubt On Global Warming – Newsfeed Hasslefree Allsort

    […] Related: Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Narrative Collapses…Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 … […]

  5. Nunya

    Just tell me already. Is this glacier safe and effective?

  6. Colt Baldwin

    The idea that sea levels rise at all due to global warming/climate change is ludicrous.

  7. Ozzonelayyer

    As long as the social scientists determine that the glacier is meeting all diversity, equity and inclusion goals, there is no threat to democracy.

  8. voza0db

    “Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm” just disappointments after disappointments!

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    […] No Tricks Zone the new study was authored by a team of scientists in the UK and the US. They described their […]

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