“The first modern GSM1 [Grand Solar Minimum] occurs in 2020 – 2053 with the cycle amplitudes reduction to 80% in cycle 25, to 30% in cycle 26 and to 70% in cycle 27 from the maximum amplitude of cycle 24.” − Zharkova et al., 2023
Per a new study, Earth’s Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has increased by about 1 to 1.5 W/m² from its depths in 1700 to its “maximum amplitude” in cycle 24 (2020). This resulted in a global temperature increase of about 1.5°C during this span.
“[T]he monthly TSI variations (case a) show the increase of TSI by about 1 – 1.3 W/m² in 2020 compared to 1700. This TSI increase found from the S-E distance ephemeris is close to the magnitude of 1 – 1.5 W/m² reported from the current TSI observations.”
But over the next 30 years (2020-2053) Earth will experience a period of significantly reduced solar activity and a consequent “mini ice age” climate that is “similar to the Maunder Minimum” (1645-1715 CE) that characterized the much-colder-than-today Little Ice Age period.
Temperatures will be reduced by about 1°C during the next few decades; Earth will then be only 0.5°C warmer than it was in 1700.
“Because solar irradiance and the terrestrial temperature already increased since the MM [Maunder Minimum] as is clearly recorded from the terrestrial temperature variations, the terrestrial temperature during the first modern GSM1 is expected to drop by about 1.0˚C to become just 0.5°C higher than it was in 1700.”
Image Source: Zharkova et al., 2023
In the study, no anthropogenic or carbon dioxide concentration contribution to terrestrial temperature change is mentioned.
It’s to be expected. I predicted this 5-6 years ago, based on how governments changed their behaviour. They doubled down on the climate propaganda, started pushing wilder and wilder scare porn, they made climate change a part of daily life, and then they released Greta Thunberg upon the world. It was clear to me that they were behaving as if they were running out of time. And why would they be running out of time? They spent 30 years with climate hysteria on a slow boil, and then they turned up the heat all of a sudden. Trump’s backing out of the Paris accord was one reason for it. But it seemed to me that it was impossible for us to not have decently accurate climate models that are being kept secret. And based on these models they knew the climate will cool down in the near future (I suspect that these models were created in the mid to late ’80s and are directly responsible for the switch from “an ice age is coming” to “the world is going to melt” seemingly over night). And that’s why they were running out of time. They only had a few years to pretend like the upcoming cooling is their doing, and a direct result of their Net Zero agenda.
And looks like I was right. 2023 has been a pretty cold year (not that the media is going to admit this – they’re still in “world on fire” mode). And now this study confirms the climate is naturally cooling down.
Fearless forecast: Alarmists will credit their policies for stopping global warming. Then, they will insist on even more sustainable energy and even less carbon fuels.
With the cooling period coming in the 2030 to 2040 time frame, the average temperature drop worldwide will be at least 20 degrees.
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