CFC Bans Did Nothing To Interrupt The Ongoing Trend Of Antarctic Ozone Losses

There has been a “continued, significant ozone reduction since 2004, amounting to 26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” (Kessenich et al., 2023).

It is not at all evident that the 1987 Montreal Protocol bans on presumed ozone-depleting substances (ODS) like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) materially affected the flat to negative trajectory of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica.

Massive Antarctic ozone holes – the largest on record in 45+ years of tracking – have been ongoing in the 21st century. In fact, “five of the past eight years overall have exhibited record ozone holes,” with a negative trend resulting in a “26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” from 2004-2022 (Kessenich et al., 2023).

Because the presumed effect of the ODS bans have not been realized in the last 35 years, the scientists who still believe humans are responsible for ozone losses (i.e., 2022 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion) are now saying the ozone recovery from ODS damages “should be on track” to being realized by 2065 – over 40 years from now. This estimate is quite convenient, as most of the scientists formulating these predictions will be dead.

Image Source: Kessenich et al., 2023

Another new study (Jonas, 2024) points out that ozone holes were observed in the 1960s too. This is well before 1979, the conveniently-chosen “start” year for ozone hole formation.

Also, the data appear to show “the annual ozone minimum at the South Pole is related to lower stratospheric temperature independently of chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide.”

Image Source: Jonas, 2024