CFC Bans Did Nothing To Interrupt The Ongoing Trend Of Antarctic Ozone Losses

There has been a “continued, significant ozone reduction since 2004, amounting to 26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” (Kessenich et al., 2023).

It is not at all evident that the 1987 Montreal Protocol bans on presumed ozone-depleting substances (ODS) like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) materially affected the flat to negative trajectory of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica.

Massive Antarctic ozone holes – the largest on record in 45+ years of tracking – have been ongoing in the 21st century. In fact, “five of the past eight years overall have exhibited record ozone holes,” with a negative trend resulting in a “26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” from 2004-2022 (Kessenich et al., 2023).

Because the presumed effect of the ODS bans have not been realized in the last 35 years, the scientists who still believe humans are responsible for ozone losses (i.e., 2022 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion) are now saying the ozone recovery from ODS damages “should be on track” to being realized by 2065 – over 40 years from now. This estimate is quite convenient, as most of the scientists formulating these predictions will be dead.

Image Source: Kessenich et al., 2023

Another new study (Jonas, 2024) points out that ozone holes were observed in the 1960s too. This is well before 1979, the conveniently-chosen “start” year for ozone hole formation.

Also, the data appear to show “the annual ozone minimum at the South Pole is related to lower stratospheric temperature independently of chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide.”

Image Source: Jonas, 2024

6 responses to “CFC Bans Did Nothing To Interrupt The Ongoing Trend Of Antarctic Ozone Losses”

  1. Ptor

    Harry Wexler?

  2. Peter

    While I’m also highly skeptical about the ability of any gas causing such significant damage (maybe CFC was simply what CO2 is believed to be today), truth is that there are also other studies claiming that while CFC was banned and is no longer used in the western world, China continues to illegally use it in their manufacturing plants and the amount of CFC in the atmosphere actually keeps growing as a result of that…

  3. Richard Greene

    Vert good article added to my blog’s daily recommended reading list

    Climate change is a climate prediction of global warming doom and every past environmental prediction of doom prediction has been wrong. There seems to be a pattern.

  4. John Hultquist

    I’d buy a ticket for this event except I will be “room temperature” thirty years prior too.
    Besides, these folks can’t tell what “the hole” will be like in 3 years, so why believe they can do so 40 years out.

  5. CFC Bans Did Nothing To Interrupt The Ongoing Trend Of Antarctic Ozone Losses - Climate-

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