New Study Finds An Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity For The Arctic And Antarctic

The phenomenon of increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane) is assumed to lead to sharply rising temperatures in polar regions, or “polar amplification.” As it turns out, it doesn’t.

Per a new radiative forcing model (Notholt et al., 2024), increasing CO2 from pre-industrial to present levels (278 to 400 ppm) results in a slight cooling effect for all of Antarctica (-0.01°C), reinforcing the “negative greenhouse effect” conclusion of previous studies.

The increased CO2 concentration does result in a warming for the Arctic in their model, but only 0.42°C for the 122 ppm increase. This implies CO2 cannot be responsible for the bulk of modern Arctic warming.

It was also determined that for Antarctica, “doubling CH4 leads to a cooling of almost the whole troposphere.”

The negative greenhouse effect of water vapor – Earth’s main greenhouse gas – dominates over CO2 with regard to climate impacts in polar regions.

The authors suggest their results provide an explanation for the “lack of warming seen in Antarctica throughout the last decades.”

Image Source: Notholt et al., 2024

6 responses to “New Study Finds An Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity For The Arctic And Antarctic”

  1. DMA

    The authors suggest their results provide an explanation for the “lack of warming seen in Antarctica throughout the last decades.”
    I remember great consternation and a map with half of the Antarctic all red a few years back. Seems they had smeared the warmth from the volcanoes over most of the continent. Now they have a model that shows their first settled science was wrong and agrees with their new theory.

  2. Fritz

    A young German reporter has set off on a journey to follow the trail of LNG gas, which has been touted as the primary fossil fuel source for Germany since the end of the energy partnership with Russia: “The worst deal ever?”

    A gigantic LNG terminal is being built in Port Arthur/Texas with many German billions. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg alone is contributing 6 billion euros.

    Germany has committed to buying LNG from the USA for a very long time.

    After spending billions on Nordstream I + II, Germany is currently investing even more money in additional infrastructure for LNG – in addition to expanding LNG capacities in Texas, it is also building LNG ships and LNG terminals on the German coast.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVU-jF6fUtE

    (Wait a few seconds until the PDF appears)
    https://www.hostize.com/r/Tkv56-FGsN/lng-pdf

  3. New Study Finds An Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity For The Arctic And Antarctic - Climate- Science.press

    […] From NoTricksZone […]

  4. soundos

    very informative article

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