The CFS expects a somewhat cool and wet October across western Europe this year. Ground surface frost has already been widespread.
Hat-tip Snowfan
Chart: NOAA
As the chart above depicts, the deviations of the 2m temperatures from the globally valid WMO climate mean 1991-2020 are expected to be around 0°C. Above-average precipitation is expected.
This could be a snowy October at times for the higher altitudes in Germany… It’s a good thing that the gas storage facilities in Germany are almost full to the brim at 96% ahead of the third Russian attack winter in a row… Source: CFSv2 forecasts TA2m and precipitation Europe.
The ECMWF long-term forecasts also predict October 2024 will be quite cool across Central Europe, especially in the first half.
Cold Atlantic sea surface
The North Atlantic sea surface temperature between Iceland and Europe were cooled in the second half of September and offer less warming of the air layers close to the ground with westerly and north-westerly winds in western and central Europe: an indication of a rather cool October?
Source: Snowfan, NOAA reanalysis SSTA North Atlantic
The NOAA reanalysis shows the North Atlantic between Iceland and Europe in the second half of September 2024 to be undercooled compared to the global WMO climate mean 1991-2020.
With westerly to northwesterly winds, the near-surface subpolar air masses are warmed less than average, suggesting a cool October in western and central Europe.
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