3 New (2018) Papers Link Modern Warming And Past Cooling Periods To High, Low Solar Activity

Graph Source: Herrera et al., 2015

Graph Source: Russell et al., 2010

1.  Oliva et al., 2018

Cold period during 1645–1706 (Maunder solar minimum).  Cold period during 1810–1838 (Dalton solar minimum).  Warm period during the mid-20th and 21st centuries (modern solar maximum).  

LIA  [Little Ice Age] was characterized by a cold phase having lower annual and summer temperatures relative to the long-term mean, consistent with the solar minima. … The record shows rapid cooling since the start of the Spörer Minimum, which intensified during the Maunder Minimum (with the lowest estimated temperature being 2 °C lower than the recent average). A later increase in the temperature and another slight cooling probably coincided with the Dalton Minimum. Particularly cold winters occurred during the MCA (from 1090 to 1179), during the LIA onset (1350) and from the late 15th to early 16th centuries. Winter temperatures would have been approximately 0.5 °C lower during the LIA (1500–1900) than during the 20th century. … [T]he Maunder Minimum coincided with a cold period from 1645 to 1706, and the Dalton Minimum (1796–1830) is correlated with a cold stage spanning the years from 1810 to 1838.

Four warm periods (1626–1637, 1800–1809, 1845–1859, and 1986–2012) coincided with periods of increased solar activity.

The gradual increase in temperature during the second half of the 19th century resulted in significant glacier retreat, with rates of receding [in the second half of the 19th century] similar to those recorded during the last decades of the 20th century and in the early 21st century (Chueca et al., 2008). … The colder climate of the LIA was accompanied by severe droughts, floods, and cold/heat waves that showed significant spatio-temporal variation across the Iberian mountains.

The 20th century did not show unprecedented warmth over the last 800 years.


2.  Ukhvatkina et al., 2018

It is well known that cold and warm periods of the climate are correlated with intensive solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period), while decreases in temperature occur during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age; Lean and Rind, 1999; Bond et al., 2001).

Long cold periods from 1643 to 1667 and from 1675 to 1690 that were revealed for another territory (Lyu et al., 2016; Wilson et al., 2016) coincided with the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), an interval of decreased solar irradiance (Bard et al., 2000). The coldest year in this study (1662) was revealed in this period too. The Dalton minimum period centered in 1810 is also notable. … We suppose that a 9-year cycle may be related to solar activity, as, first of all, many authors showed influence of solar activity on the climate variability (Bond et al., 2001; Lean and Rind, 1999; Lean, 2000; Mann et al., 2009; Zhu et al., 2016). Secondly, the significant correlation between of the August–December minimum temperature reconstruction and TSI [total solar irradiance] can be regarded as additional evidence of this assumption. Finally, there is a coincidence of the reconstructed cold periods with the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715) and the Dalton minimum period centered in 1810. The solar activity influence in the region is traditionally associated with an indirect effect on the circulation of the atmosphere (Erlykin et al., 2009; Fedorov et al., 2015).

In the second half of the 20th century the solar radiation intensity changes contributed to more intensive warming of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and more active inflow of warm air masses to the north (Fedorov et al., 2015).

Close periodicity is revealed in long-term climate reconstructions and is linked to the quasi-200-year solar activity cycle in other studies (Raspopov et al., 2008, 2009). Raspopov et al. (2008) showed that in tree-ring-based reconstructions the cycle varies from 180 to 230 years. Moreover, the high correlation between the minimum temperature reconstructions and TSI, and also the revealed link between the reconstructed temperatures and solar activity minima, lead us to suppose that the solar activity may be the driver of the 200-year cycle. Such climate cycling, linked not only to temperature but also to precipitation, is revealed for the territories of Asia, North America, Australia, the Arctic, and the Antarctic (Raspopov et al., 2008). At the same time, the 200-year cycle (de Vries cycle) may often have a phase shift from some years to decades and correlates not only positively but also negatively with climatic fluctuations depending on the character of the nonlinear response of the atmosphere– ocean system within the scope of the region (Raspopov et al., 2009). According to Raspopov et al. (2009), the study area is in the zone that reacts with a positive correlation to solar activity, though the authors note that we should not expect a direct response because of the nonlinear character of the atmosphere–ocean system reaction to variability in solar activity (Raspopov et al., 2009). Taking into consideration this fact and that the cold and warm periods shown in our reconstruction are slightly shifted compared with more continental areas and the whole Northern Hemisphere, we can say that the reconstruction of minimum August–December temperatures reflects the global climate change process in aggregate with the regional characteristics of the study area.

 

TSI graph (top) as shown in Blaauw, 2017

3. Lockwood et al., 2018

Space climate and space weather over the past 400 years: 2. Proxy indicators of geomagnetic storm and substorm occurrence

During the Dalton minimum [1797-1825] these reconstructions predict an average Ap that is roughly half of that during the modern maximum [1938-2000] but the number of storm-like days (with <Ap>=1dy > Apo) falls radically by an order of magnitude.

For the Maunder minimum, the mean Ap is lower than for the modern grand maximum by a factor of about 5 and the reconstructions predict no storm-like days would have been detected.  Given the strong correlation between annual means of AE and Ap (r = 0.98), it is not surprising that the reconstructed AE index behaves in a somewhat similar way to Ap, with average values relative to the modern maximum that are roughly halved for the Dalton minimum and a fifth for the Maunder minimum.

The number of strong substorm-like hours p.a. in the Dalton minimum [1797-1825] is predicted to have been 140 compared to 512 in the modern grand maximum [1938-2000].

In the Maunder minimum this to falls 28 per annum (i.e. this predicts a total of 1,680 substorm-like hours during the 60 years of the Maunder minimum compared to 30,720 for the 60 years of the modern grand maximum). …

Looking to the future, the weakening of Earth’s magnetic moment means that the terrestrial disturbance levels during a future repeats of the solar Dalton and Maunder minima will be weaker and we here quantify this effect for the first time.

German Public Television Carries Out Textbook Propaganda Hit On German Climate “Deniers”…”Used Every Trick”

Another winter North Sea storm struck Germany last Thursday, and naturally the alarmists and climate-downfall conspiracy nuts – among them flagship German public television – immediately mobilized to point the blame on manmade CO2 emissions.

Linking skepticism to the right wing AfD party. Image cropped from rbb Kontraste.

And because the right wing newcomers, the AfD (Alternative for Germany, in the German Parliament have made climate skepticism part of their platform, rbb seized the opportunity (and almost every dirty propaganda trick in the book) to cast the AfD and climate skeptics in a very deplorable light. Details in German here at EIKE.

Firstly, I’ll never understand why leading skeptics like EIKE in Germany would agree to let themselves be interviewed by the highly biased German media, knowing full well it’s going to be a pile-on, totally void of balance. Moreover, there are a lot of things EIKE could do a lot better. Personally I haven’t been too impressed with the site and the institute. But that’s another story.

Of course in the rbb smear, the skeptics’ cause did not get any help from AfD climate spokesman Rainer Kraft who stupidly told rbb that there was “no such thing as the greenhouse effect”. That and other things made rbb’s putting together of the smear report a piece of cake. The whole thing was designed from the get-go to be a drive-by media hit.

Kraft should never be allowed to comment on climate science again as he is clearly ill-informed and ended up looking like a crackpot saying such a ridiculous statement.

Unsurprisingly, the “renowned” Stefan Rahmstorf and Harald Lesch were given the microphone to portray the skeptics as deniers, paid shills of ExxonMobil and other horrible things. Here Willie Soon was singled out.

rbb then described the skeptics as being mostly comprised of “disgruntled pensioners working out of their homes” and who agree with the likes of Donald Trump.

RBB carefully crafted and edited the segment to make it look like it was an issue pitting renowned experts who should not be questioned on one side, and crackpots on the other. They threw fairness and balance out the window. EIKE should have foreseen this from the get-go.

According to EIKE, one experienced cameraman commented on the reporting techniques used by RBB:

Because I saw the entire rbb report, I noticed many other things. The reporters did act as ‘reporters’ who politely asked questions and recorded them. Instead they were for the most part snotty-arrogant and condescending, like a chief interrogator with a criminal suspect.

Here all camera tricks were employed (unnoticed by the audience) to make Lesch and Rahmstorf appear positive and nice, surrounded by books in a well lit and friendly room. In total contrast, the man from the Berliner Kreis-CDU [Lengsfeld] appeared in full close-up via tele-perspective in a red toned face, a sort of ‘interrogation perspective’ with which the audience (unknowingly) associates with guilt. Anyone who has years of camera experience recognizes such fine points.

In short, everyone at rbb used every trick, also the most nasty ones!”

In other words, rbb violated its fundamental obligation of the German public television charter.

New Study: German Agreed 2050 CO2 Reductions Could Cost Astronomical $2.8 TRILLION By 2050!

It has long been dawning on most people that the costs of Germany’s Energiewende (transition to green energies) have been spectacularly underestimated. As Germany rushes into its foray with renewable energies, principally wind and sun, we are finding out that many of the costs involved were never taken into account. According to Die Welt:

In Germany up to 2.3 trillion euros additionally have to be invested in order to reach the long-term climate protection targets  of 2050. That’s the result from a current study by the Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie [German Federation of Industry].”

Daniel Wetzel, Die Welt

Journalist Daniel Wetzel at the online flagship daily Die Welt reports on the results of the study commissioned by the German BDI, which found that the cost of Germany (only Germany!) meeting its 2050 Paris Accord obligations (95% reduction) could be as high as 2.3 trillion euros ($2.8 trillion).

Chart source: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Recently the Union of Concerned Scientists reported that Germany’s share global CO2 emissions is only some 2%, or a mere 1/50th of global emissions. So even if Germany did manage to reach its 2050 reductions target, it would represent only a percent or two of total global CO2 output and thus would have no perceptible theoretical effect on global temperature.

One could argue that Germans will be paying 2.3 trillion euros in exchange for practically nothing. That kind of money would be far better spent on Germany’s crumbling infrastructure, education and defense (e.g. paying its fair share to NATO).

The costs would be so severe that according to Die Welt:

The CO2 emissions cuts produce economic losers in 4 of 5 cases.”

The sanity of a $100 trillion global tab?

Moreover, if it costs over 2 trillion euros to eliminate just 1/50th of all emissions, then proportionately it means it would cost over 100 trillion euros for the entire planet to reduce emissions by 95% – using German rates – and ignoring the fact that each tonne gets more and more expensive to eliminate. One seriously has to question the sanity behind spending so much money for so little potential theoretical benefit.

The latest BDI cost estimate towers well beyond earlier estimates of a trillion euros made by Angela Merkel’s top aid Peter Altmaier just a few years ago. Many critics scoffed at Altmaier’s figure, which is now looking far too conservative.

The 2.3 trillion euro figure suggested by the BDI’s 330-page study took “200 experts one year” to calculate, Die Welt reports, and involved 68 industry associations. The data was crunched and analyzed by Prognos and the Boston Consulting Group. The report adds that Germany will have to invest 1.5 trillion euros over the next 30 years just to reach the less ambitious 80% target for 2050.

Figure may be underestimated, economically unsurvivable

Though today these figures may appear astronomical and almost beyond human imaginative abilities – they likely are still far too conservative given Germany’s penchant for seriously underestimating the costs of public projects, e.g. Elbphilharmonie, Berlin BER airport.

But what is especially worrisome is that there are many signs indicating the “Energiewende” will fail totally. So far it has been costing Germans 25 billion euros annually and it has done nothing to reduce CO2 emissions.

Rare Weather Station: Unchanged Over 138 Years, Data Show No CO2 Impact On Temperature!

In Germany there is one weather station that has be intact and unchanged for some 138 years.

It has never been moved and never been corrupted by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Moreover it has consistently used the same instrumentation and computation method over the entire period, thus making it rare indeed. Few station can boast having those instrumentation qualities.

That measurement station is one operated at the Klostergarten of the St. Stephan Abbey in Augsburg just northwest of Munich.

44-year veteran German meteorologist Klaus Hager reports the following results of this station (reproduced with permission):
======================================

A look at the January mean temperature in Augsburg from 1879 – 2017 ( 138 years)

The chart below shows the chaotic ups and downs of the mean value of the January temperatures measured in the Klostergarten of the St. Stephan Abbey in Augsburg:

img6

First it’s important to note:

  1. The measurement location has not changed since 1879, nor has it been relocated. The garden area remains 1 hectare in size, and thus is completely representative of the Augsburg inner city area.
  2. The mean temperature was computed by halving the sum of the high temperature and the low temperature.
  3. The measurements were always done using glass thermometers – a mercury thermometer for the maximum and an alcohol thermometer for the minimum – inside an official so-called Stevenson screen.

Thus real continuity with respect to measurement is assured.

Over the entire 138-year observation period the measurements were carried out according to the same technical requirements, which is something that unfortunately can only be said about very few measurement stations.

As the chart above shows, one can see considerable temperature fluctuations from year to year. The deviations from the 138-year mean of -1.0°C are shown in red for above-mean temperatures and in blue for those below the mean. Of course since the end of the 1980s, positive deviations have been far more common, but there remains no detectable relationship with the continuously rising CO2 in the air.

Because nature – as is the case with temperature – is constantly undergoing fluctuations, one ought to be especially careful when it comes to making projections into the future. Unfortunately nature’s complexity also does not allow it to be modelled adequately.

January of 2017 was the seventh coldest since 1879, posting a mean of – 6.1°C.

Finally let’s not forget to thank the fathers of the St. Stephan Abbey for having recorded the temperatures every day until today.

 

The Proliferation Of Non-Global Warming Graphs In Science Journals Continues Unabated In 2018

 Already 14 New (2018)

Non-Hockey Stick Papers

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals that indicated modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

Less than 3 weeks into the new publication year, the explosion of non-alarming depictions of modern climate change continues.



Blarquez et al., 2018


 Magyari et al., 2018

…its climatic tolerance limits were used to infer July mean temperatures exceeding modern values by 2.8°C at this time [8200-6700 cal yr BP] (Magyari et al., 2012).


White et al., 2018

Our data, together with published work, indicate both a long-term trend in ENSO strength due to June insolation [solar] forcing and high-amplitude decadalcentennial fluctuations; both behaviors are shown in models. The best-supported mechanism for insolation-driven dampening of ENSO is weakening of the upwelling feedback by insolation-forced warming/deepening of thermocline source waters. … Another potential source of decadal-centennial forcing is total solar irradiance, which varied more in the early Holocene than the mid- to late Holocene [Marchitto et al., 2010]. Changing solar irradiance is theoretically capable of affecting ENSO via ocean dynamical cooling [Emile-Geay et al., 2007], and is correlated with centennial-scale variations in early Holocene ENSO [Marchitto et al., 2010].


Song et al., 2018

[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present. … The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity.


Huang et al., 2018

A period of weak chemical weathering, related to cold and dry climatic conditions, occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), whereas more intense chemical weathering, reflecting warm and humid climatic conditions, was recorded during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Besides, an intensification of chemical weathering in Poyang Lake during the late Holocene agrees well with strong ENSO activity, suggesting that moisture variations in central China may be predominantly driven by ENSO variability. … Rao et al. (2016b) demonstrated that a humid late-Holocene in central China and an arid late-Holocene in southern and northern China were significantly related to strong ENSO activity. Thus, it seems that ENSO forcing may be likely dominant factor controlling moisture variations in central China.


Perner et al., 2018

[W]e find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability.

Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the ‘2800 years BP cooling event’, the ‘Dark Ages’ and the ‘Little Ice Age’, whereas the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state.

Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late Holocene, suggesting ENSO as a potential mediator.



Maley et al., 2018


Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018

The record demonstrates a warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE), variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE), positive bottom water temperature anomalies during the Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) and a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability during the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE). The fjord BWT [bottom water temperatures] record also picks up the contemporary warming of the 20th century, which does not stand out in the 2500-year perspective and is of the same magnitude as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

 


Papadomanolaki et al., 2018  (Baltic Sea)

A large fraction of the Baltic Proper became hypoxic again between 1.4 and 0.7 ka BP, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), when mean air temperatures were 0.9–1.4 °C higher than temperatures recorded in the period 1961–1990 (e.g. Mann et al., 2009; Jilbert and Slomp, 2013).


20th/21st Centuries Non-Warming


Yi, 2018

As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months (January and July), different seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset (1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quantitative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210 ℃/yr to 0.0143 ℃/yr, –0.0166 ℃/yr to 0.0311 ℃/yr, and  –0.0290 ℃/yr to 0.0084 ℃/yr, respectively, and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change.


Bereiter et al., 2018

Our reconstruction provides unprecedented precision and temporal resolution for the integrated global ocean, in contrast to the depth-, region-, organism- and season-specific estimates provided by other methods. We find that the mean global ocean temperature is closely correlated with Antarctic temperature and has no lead or lag with atmospheric CO2, thereby confirming the important role of Southern Hemisphere climate in global climate trends. We also reveal an enigmatic 700-year warming during the early Younger Dryas period (about 12,000 years ago) that surpasses estimates of modern ocean heat uptake.

(press release)

“Our precision is about 0.2 ºC (0.4 ºF) now, and the warming of the past 50 years is only about 0.1 ºC,” he said, adding that advanced equipment can provide more precise measurements, allowing scientists to use this technique to track the current warming trend in the world’s oceans.


 Purich et al., 2018

Observed Southern Ocean changes over recent decades include a surface freshening (Durack and Wijffels 2010; Durack et al. 2012; de Lavergne et al. 2014), surface cooling (Fan et al. 2014; Marshall et al. 2014; Armour et al. 2016; Purich et al. 2016a) and circumpolar increase in Antarctic sea ice (Cavalieri and Parkinson 2008; Comiso and Nishio 2008; Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012).  … [A]s high-latitude surface freshening is associated with surface cooling and a sea ice increase, this may be another factor contributing to the CMIP5 models excessive Southern Ocean surface warming contrasting the observed surface cooling (Marshall et al. 2014; Purich et al. 2016a), and sea ice decline contrasting the observed increases (Mahlstein et al. 2013; Polvani and Smith 2013; Swart and Fyfe 2013; Turner et al. 2013; Zunz et al. 2013; Gagne et al. 2015) over recent decades. … Our results suggest that recent multi-decadal trends in large-scale surface salinity over the Southern Ocean have played a role in the observed surface cooling seen in this region. … The majority of CMIP5 models do not simulate a surface cooling and increase in sea ice (Fig. 8b), as seen in observations.


Cerrone and Fusco, 2018

Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s. This feature is found in association with increased positive SAM and SAO phases detected in terms of upward annual and seasonal trends (in autumn and summer) and upward decadal trends. In addition, the SIC [sea ice concentration] shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends, indicating the insulation of Antarctica from the warmer flows in the midlatitudes.


Palmer et al., 2018

Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Australian Bushfires Have Become LESS FREQUENT Over The Past 15 Years

Australian Bushfires Have Become Less Frequent Over The Past 15 Years

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

In the Australian state of Victoria, 50,000 km² of land have burned and 12 people and 1 million sheep and thousands of heads of cattle lost their lives. The regions hit by fire were near Portland, Westernport and in the Plenty Ranges, as well as the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. The burned regions extended over a quarter of the state. Conditions for the fires were made favorable by the long-lasting drought period, which changed the landscape into a tinderbox. Finally the fire was exacerbated by strong winds, which carried off a glowing ember from a campfire and ignited the adjacent grassy region.

What role did climate change play in the fire disaster? The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and other alarmists remained surprisingly moot here. Normally climate alarmists rush to the microphones and claim that although such single events are not easily linked to climate change, the probability is in any case is much higher. Loaded dice.

Proponents of a climate catastrophe kept silent in the case of these Victoria fires because they had not been born yet.

The described above fires occurred in February, 1851 and are known as the ‘Black Thursday Bushfires‘.

There have always been bushfires in Australia. For example at the end of the 19th century and the start of the 20th century in New South Wales. Apparently that fact was not even known by the former General Secretary of the Climate Framework Convention of the United Nations (UNFCCC), Christiana Figueres, who in 2013 described in knee-jerk fashion that the fires in New South Wales (NSW) were a consequence of climate change. A classic gaffe – one that should never happen for someone occupying such a position.

The provincial government defended itself against such misinterpretations. The German business daily Handelsbatt wrote on October 25, 2013:

The new conservative government accuses environmental protection activists are exploiting the fires to oppose the planned repeal of of the CO2-tax. ‘Some people are trying to profit from all the tragedy and suffering of this week,’ said Environment Minister Greg Hunt. By the way, the CSIRO research authority just explained that there have been bushfires in Australia for millions of years.”

If one counts the damage from bushfires in NSW compared to the number of homes, then there has been no recognizable trend over the past 90 years.  In The Conversation, John McAneney presented the facts. Foremost he sees deficits with regards to land-use planning, which made the extent of the fire damage possible.

In July 2017 a study by Nick Earl und Ian Simmonds appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The authors analyzed the Australian bushfire statistics from 2001-2015 and found a reduction in fires. Yet, they did find a large temporal and spatial variability which in part was controlled by ocean cycles such as the El Nino or the Indian Ocean Dipole. Abstract:

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity
Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based “active fire” (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001–2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December–February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September–November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.”

 

Another German Offshore Wind Park Loses Millions As Installation Costs Soar, Wind Forecast Overestimated

The online fuldainfo.de here reports of mores woes in the German offshore wind industry. It’s turning out that offshore wind power is expensive, and often plagued by technical difficulties.

The offshore Trianel Borkum wind park severely hampered by spiraling costs, lower than expected winds. Photo credit: Trianel

Just days ago I wrote here of another recent technical folly suffered by the North Sea Riffgat wind park, where its power transmission underwater cable worked its way out of the seabed to become exposed and thus at risk of becoming ensnarled with anchors or fishing nets.

“Rosy wind projections”

The fuldainfo.de now writes of “high losses” incurred by aanother nearby wind park: the Trianel Windpark operated by Rhönenergie. This is “not surprising” to FDP Free Democrats Party Chairman Mario Klotzsche:

We brought up our concerns again and again in the committees, and also in public, because the economic precariousness was foreseeable at a very early stage. That’s why the city of Flensburg left the project already in 2014. That’s what we also wish to do so that Rhönenergie can avoid getting saddled with additional burdens.”

Offshore installation costs more than doubled

A major reason for the losses seen by the Trianel Borkum park today, according to Klotzsche, were the “rosy wind projections”, which he reports was also the case for “many other wind projects“. He is quoted in the fuldinfo.de:

Originally 80 turbines with 400 megawatts of capacity should have been installed for 1 billion euros. In the end only 40 turbines and 200 megawatts of capacity were built for 1.1 billion euros.”

Multiple delays

Klotzsche also spoke of “repeated delays” with respect to hook up to the power grid, and even after the park was put into operation.

Moreover, the winds that were projected never materialized. “There was less wind than what was assumed,” according to Klotzsche. “The responsible persons calculated the project using rosy numbers.”

Ph.D. Climate Scientist: Modern Warming Natural…CO2 Changes Affect Climate ‘Weakly At Most’

New Paper Spurns Anthropogenic CO2 Warming,

Unveils Natural Explanation For Climate Change

University of California (Santa Cruz) Professor W. Jackson Davis (Ph.D.), President of the Environmental Studies Institute, has published a new paper with colleagues in the journal Climate that thoroughly undermines the conceptualization of a dominant role for anthropogenic CO2 in the global warming since 1850.

Davis points out that CO2 and global temperature have been “decoupled” throughout much of geological history, and that the amplification of CO2 concentrations yields increasingly smaller radiative effects, meaning that the higher the CO2 concentration rises, the weaker its influence.

He even suggests that the reason why the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis (it has not reached theoretical status) has been popularized is because there are reputed to be no convincing alternative explanations.

But Davis and two other University of California (SC) scientists have proposed a newly-termed alternative explanation for the 0.8°C global temperature change since 1850.  The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO) has been identified as varying in sync with solar cycles (orbital), and correlates with glacial-interglacial transitions, the 1,500-year abrupt, global-scale temperature changes (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles), and, as the name suggests, century-scale fluctuations in global temperature.

Consequently, as the authors conclude, properties of the ACO “can explain the current global warming signal”.


Davis et al., 2018

Introduction:

[T]he contemporary global warming increase of ~0.8 °C recorded since 1850 has been attributed widely to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Recent research has shown, however, that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been decoupled from global temperature for the last 425 million years [Davis, 2017] owing to well-established diminishing returns in marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF) as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases. Marginal forcing of temperature from increasing CO2 emissions declined by half from 1850 to 1980, and by nearly two-thirds from 1850 to 1999 [Davis, 2017]. Changes in atmospheric CO2 therefore affect global temperature weakly at most.

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis has been embraced partly because “…there is no convincing alternative explanation” [USGCRP, 2017] (p. 12).

The ACO provides a possible alternative explanation in the form of a natural climate cycle that arises in Antarctica, propagates northward to influence global temperature, and peaks on a predictable centennial timetable.

Abstract:

We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO)—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4%) in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP), and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely.

The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.

Climate Activists Suffering From Factophobia… Host Of Studies Show No Drought/Forest Fire Trend

Not climate change: forest fires in the USA controlled by El Nino, arson and land use changes

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Droughts increase the risk of forest fires; that’s logical. However it is false to reflexively assign every forest fire to climate change. There have always been droughts and forest fires. Anyone wishing to shift the blame over to climate change first has to show that the trend has already deviated from the range of natural variability. For many, that is simply too much work.

Thus they prefer to claim something and hope that nobody will bother to fact check the claim. They don’t like climate skeptics because they have the silly habit of carefully examining the facts. They prefer the silent, non-questioning audience who immediately say yes and amen in response to all alarmist claims.

And when the facts indeed do contradict their alarmist claims, they get personal. They attack the occupation of the skeptic, or education, or skin color, or, or, or.

Nowadays we can find a load of facts in the Internet. Example: forest fires in the USA. The size of the areas ravaged by forest fires is provided by a table from the National Interagency Fire Centers. Strangely the data are not offered in graphical form. You are forced to make your own, which is no problem. Most people however simply are left in the dark. Steven Goddard (Tony Heller) shows such a charts at his Real Science blog.

ScreenHunter_1347 Jul. 26 16.23

2004 – 2014 burn acreage trend is falling. Chart source: Tony Heller.

One cannot always just pull climate change at of his magic hat every time a forest fire appears. The University of Colorado at Boulder recently calculated that 84% of all forest and bush fires in den USA are caused by humans. Read the press release from February 2017:

Humans have dramatically increased extent, duration of wildfire season
Humans have dramatically increased the spatial and seasonal extent of wildfires across the U.S. in recent decades and ignited more than 840,000 blazes in the spring, fall and winter seasons over a 21-year period, according to new University of Colorado Boulder-led research. After analyzing two decades’ worth of U.S. government agency wildfire records spanning 1992-2012, the researchers found that human-ignited wildfires accounted for 84 percent of all wildfires, tripling the length of the average fire season and accounting for nearly half of the total acreage burned. The findings were published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“There cannot be a fire without a spark,” said Jennifer Balch, Director of CU Boulder’s Earth Lab and an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and lead author of the new study. “Our results highlight the importance of considering where the ignitions that start wildfires come from, instead of focusing only on the fuel that carries fire or the weather that helps it spread. Thanks to people, the wildfire season is almost year-round.”  The U.S. has experienced some of its largest wildfires on record over the past decade, especially in the western half of the country. The duration and intensity of future wildfire seasons is a point of national concern given the potentially severe impact on agriculture, ecosystems, recreation and other economic sectors, as well as the high cost of extinguishing blazes. The annual cost of fighting wildfires in the U.S. has exceeded $2 billion in recent years.

The CU Boulder researchers used the U.S. Forest Service Fire Program Analysis-Fire Occurrence Database to study records of all wildfires that required a response from a state or federal agency between 1992 and 2012, omitting intentionally set prescribed burns and managed agricultural fires. Human-ignited wildfires accounted for 84 percent of 1.5 million total wildfires studied, with lightning-ignited fires accounting for the rest. In Colorado, 30 percent of wildfires from 1992-2012 were started by people, burning over 1.2 million acres. The fire season length for human-started fires was 50 days longer than the lightning-started fire season (93 days compared to 43 days), a twofold increase. “These findings do not discount the ongoing role of climate change, but instead suggest we should be most concerned about where it overlaps with human impact,” said Balch. “Climate change is making our fields, forests and grasslands drier and hotter for longer periods, creating a greater window of opportunity for human-related ignitions to start wildfires.”

While lightning-driven fires tend to be heavily concentrated in the summer months, human-ignited fires were found to be more evenly distributed across all seasons. Overall, humans added an average of 40,000 wildfires during the spring, fall and winter seasons annually—over 35 times the number of lightning-started fires in those seasons. “We saw significant increases in the numbers of large, human-started fires over time, especially in the spring,” said Bethany Bradley, an associate professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst and co-lead author of the research. “I think that’s interesting, and scary, because it suggests that as spring seasons get warmer and earlier due to climate change, human ignitions are putting us at increasing risk of some of the largest, most damaging wildfires.” “Not all fire is bad, but humans are intentionally and unintentionally adding ignitions to the landscape in areas and seasons when natural ignitions are sparse,” said John Abatzoglou, an associate professor of geography at the University of Idaho and a co-author of the paper. “We can’t easily control how dry fuels get, or lightning, but we do have some control over human started ignitions.”

The most common day for human-started fire by far, however, was July 4, with 7,762 total wildfires started on that day over the course of the 21-year period. The new findings have wide-ranging implications for fire management policy and suggest that human behavior can have dramatic impact on wildfire totals, for good or for ill. “The hopeful news here is that we could, in theory, reduce human-started wildfires in the medium term,” said Balch. “But at the same time, we also need to focus on living more sustainably with fire by shifting the human contribution to ignitions to more controlled, well-managed burns.” Co-authors of the new research include Emily Fusco of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Adam Mahood and Chelsea Nagy of CU Boulder. The research was funded by the NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program, the Joint Fire Sciences Program and Earth Lab through CU Boulder’s Grand Challenge Initiative.”

In July 2017 the Institute for Basic Science explained that the risk of forest fires on the US Southwest was strongly dependent on the temperature differences between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Ultimately the ocean cycles are the real drivers. Press release (via Science Daily):

Atlantic/Pacific ocean temperature difference fuels US wildfires
New study shows that difference in water temperature between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans together with global warming impact the risk of drought and wildfire in southwestern North America

An international team of climate researchers from the US, South Korea and the UK has developed a new wildfire and drought prediction model for southwestern North America. Extending far beyond the current seasonal forecast, this study published in the journal Scientific Reports could benefit the economies with a variety of applications in agriculture, water management and forestry.

Over the past 15 years, California and neighboring regions have experienced heightened drought conditions and an increase in wildfire numbers with considerable impacts on human livelihoods, agriculture, and terrestrial ecosystems. This new research shows that in addition to a discernible contribution from natural forcings and human-induced global warming, the large-scale difference between Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures plays a fundamental role in causing droughts, and enhancing wildfire risks.

‘Our results document that a combination of processes is at work. Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,’ says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director of the newly founded IBS Center for Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea. ‘By prescribing the effects of human-made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.’

The new findings show that a warm Atlantic and a relatively cold Pacific enhance the risk for drought and wildfire in the southwestern US. ‘According to our study, the Atlantic/Pacific temperature difference shows pronounced variations on timescales of more than 5 years. Like swings of a very slow pendulum, this implies that there is predictability in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean system, which we expect will have a substantial societal benefit,’ explains Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, lead author of the study and Assistant Professor at the University of Utah in Logan.

The new drought and wildfire predictability system developed by the authors expands beyond the typical timescale of seasonal climate forecast models, used for instance in El Niño predictions. It was tested with a 10-23 month forecasting time for wildfire and 10-45 for drought. ‘Of course, we cannot predict individual rainstorms in California and their local impacts months or seasons ahead, but we can use our climate computer model to determine whether on average the next year will have drier or wetter soils or more or less wildfires. Our yearly forecasts are far better than chance,’ states Lowell Stott, co-author of the study from the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.

Bringing together observed and simulated measurements on ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure, water soil and wildfire occurrences, the researchers have a powerful tool in their hands, which they are willing to test in other regions of the world: ‘Using the same climate model configuration, we will also study the soil water and fire risk predictability in other parts of our world, such as the Mediterranean, Australia or parts of Asia,’ concludes Timmermann. ‘Our team is looking forward to developing new applications with stakeholder groups that can benefit from better soil water forecasts or assessments in future fire risk.’

Paper: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Matthew J. Widlansky, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Lowell Stott. Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America. Scientific Reports, 2017; 7 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7″

Ocean cycles (El Nino, La Nina) were also identified by Mason et al. 2017 as the forest fire drivers in the USA:

Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Niño but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Niña. In late summer, El Niño is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation.”

El Nino also plays a large role in the US Northwest for controlling driving forst fires, according to Barbero et al. 2015:

Seasonal reversal of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on very large wildfire occurrence in the interior northwestern United States
Satellite-mapped fire perimeters and the multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation index were used to examine the impact of concurrent El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase on very large fire (VLF) occurrences over the intermountain northwestern United States (U.S.) from 1984 to 2012. While the warm phase of ENSO promotes drier and warmer than normal conditions across the region during winter and spring that favor widespread fire activity the following summer, a reduction in VLFs was found during the warm phase of ENSO during summer concurrent with the fire season. This paradox is primarily tied to an anomalous upper level trough over the western U.S. and positive anomalies in integrated water vapor that extend over the northwestern U.S. during summers when the warm phase of ENSO is present. Collectively, these features result in widespread increases in precipitation amount during the summer and a curtailment of periods of critically low-fuel moistures that can carry wildfire.”

Overall forest fires in the USA have decreased significantly compared to the previous century (see article by Larry Kummer at Fabius Maximus).

In Colorado no forest fire trend could be found over the past centuries, see the press release from the University of Colorado issued in 2014:

Colorado’s Front Range fire severity today not much different than in past, says CU-Boulder study
The perception that Colorado’s Front Range wildfires are becoming increasingly severe does not hold much water scientifically, according to a massive new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder and Humboldt State University in Arcata, Calif. The study authors, who looked at 1.3 million acres of ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest from Teller County west of Colorado Springs through Larimer County west and north of Fort Collins, reconstructed the timing and severity of past fires using fire-scarred trees and tree-ring data going back to the 1600s. Only 16 percent of the study area showed a shift from historically low-severity fires to severe, potential crown fires that can jump from treetop to treetop.

The idea that modern fires are larger and more severe as a result of fire suppression that allowed forest fuels to build up in the past century is still prevalent among some, said CU-Boulder geography Professor Thomas Veblen, a study co-author. ‘The key point here is that modern fires in these Front Range forests are not radically different from the fire severity of the region prior to any effects of fire suppression,’ he said. A paper on the subject was published Sept. 24 in the journal PLOS ONE. The study was led by Associate Professor Rosemary Sherriff of Humboldt State University and involved Research Scientist Tania Schoennagel of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, CU-Boulder doctoral student Meredith Gartner and Associate Professor Rutherford Platt of Gettysburg College in Gettysburg, Pa. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation.

‘The common assumption is that fires are now more severe and are killing higher percentages of trees,’ said Sherriff, who completed her doctorate at CU-Boulder under Veblen in 2004. ‘Our results show that this is not the case on the Front Range except for the lowest elevation forests and woodlands.’ One important new finding comes from a comparison of nine large fires that have occurred on the Front Range since 2000 — including the 2002 Hayman Fire southwest of Denver, the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire west of Boulder and the 2012 High Park Fire west of Fort Collins — with historic fire effects in the region. ‘It’s true that the Colorado Front Range has experienced a number of large fires recently,’ said Schoennagel. ‘While more area has burned recently compared to prior decades – with more homes coming into the line of fire – the severity of recent fires is not unprecedented when we look at fire records going back before the 1900s.’

In addition, tree-ring evidence from the new study shows there were several years on the Front Range since the 1650s when there were very large, severe fires. The authors looked at more than 1,200 fire-scarred tree samples and nearly 8,000 samples of tree ages at 232 forest sample sites from Teller County to Larimer County. The study is one of the largest of its kind ever undertaken in the western United States. The team was especially interested in fire records before about 1920, when effective fire suppression in the West began in earnest. ‘In relatively dry ponderosa pine forests of the West, a common assumption is that fires were relatively frequent and of low severity, and not lethal to most large trees, prior to fuel build-up in the 20th century,’ said Veblen. ‘But our study results showed that about 70 percent of the forest study area experienced a combination of moderate and high-severity fires in which large percentages of the mature trees were killed.’

Along the Front Range, especially at higher elevations, homeowners and fire managers should expect a number of high-severity fires unrelated to any kind of fire suppression and fuel build-up, said Schoennagel. ‘This matters because high-severity fires are dangerous to people, kill more trees and are trickier and more expensive to suppress.” “Severe fires are not new to most forests in this region,’ said Sherriff. ‘What is new is the expanded wildland-urban interface hazard to people and property and the high cost of suppressing fires for society.’ In addition, a warming Colorado climate — 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1977 — has become a wild card regarding future Front Range fires, according to the team. While fires are dependent on ignition sources and can be dramatically influenced by high winds, the team expects to see a substantial increase in Front Range fire activity in the low and mid-elevations in the coming years as temperatures continue to warm, a result of rising greenhouses gases in Earth’s atmosphere.”

2016 was a bad year of forest fires in California. Al Gore immediately pointed the finger at climate change. But later it was discovered that a series of arsons was behind most of the fires. The house of climate alarm quickly collapsed. Also the University of Arizona found that the fires were promoted by poor land use practices. Press release:

Forest Fires in Sierra Nevada Driven by Past Land Use
Changes in human uses of the land have had a large impact on fire activity in California’s Sierra Nevada since 1600, according to research by a UA researcher and her colleagues.

Forest fire activity in California’s Sierra Nevada since 1600 has been influenced more by how humans used the land than by climate, according to new research led by University of Arizona and Penn State scientists. For the years 1600 to 2015, the team found four periods, each lasting at least 55 years, where the frequency and extent of forest fires clearly differed from the time period before or after. However, the shifts from one fire regime to another did not correspond to changes in temperature or moisture or other climate patterns until temperatures started rising in the 1980s. ‘We were expecting to find climatic drivers,’ said lead co-author Valerie Trouet, a UA associate professor of dendrochronology. ‘We didn’t find them.’

Instead, the team found the fire regimes corresponded to different types of human occupation and use of the land: the pre-settlement period to the Spanish colonial period; the colonial period to the California Gold Rush; the Gold Rush to the Smokey Bear/fire suppression period; and the Smokey Bear/fire suppression era to present. ‘The fire regime shifts we see are linked to the land-use changes that took place at the same time,’ Trouet said. ‘We knew about the Smokey Bear effect — there had been a dramatic shift in the fire regime all over the Western U.S. with fire suppression. We didn’t know about these other earlier regimes,’ she said. ‘It turns out humans — through land-use change — have been influencing and modulating fire for much longer than we anticipated.’

Finding that fire activity and human land use are closely linked means people can affect the severity and frequency of future forest fires through managing the fuel buildup and other land management practices — even in the face of rising temperatures from climate change, she said. The team’s paper, ‘Socio-Ecological Transitions Trigger Fire Regime Shifts and Modulate Fire-Climate Interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA 1600-2015 CE,’ was scheduled for publication in the online Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week. Trouet’s co-authors are Alan H. Taylor of Penn State, Carl N. Skinner of the U.S. Forest Service in Redding, California, and Scott L. Stephens of the University of California, Berkeley.

Initially, the researchers set out to find which climate cycles, such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle or the longer Pacific Decadal Oscillation, governed the fire regime in California’s Sierra Nevada. The team combined the fire history recorded in tree rings from 29 sites all along the Sierra Nevada with a 20th-century record of annual area burned. The history spanned the years 1600 to 2015. However, when large shifts in the fire history were compared to past environmental records of temperature and moisture, the patterns didn’t match. Other researchers already had shown that in the Sierra, there was a relationship between forest fire activity and the amount of fuel buildup. Team members wondered whether human activity over the 415-year period had changed the amount of fuel available for fires.

By using a technique called regime shift analysis, the team found four distinct time periods that differed in forest fire activity. The first was 1600 to 1775. After 1775, fire activity doubled. Fire activity dropped to pre-1775 levels starting in 1866. Starting in 1905, fire activity was less frequent than any previous time period. In 1987, fire activity started increasing again. However, the frequency of forest fires did not closely track climatic conditions, particularly after 1860. The researchers reviewed historical documents and other evidence and found the shifting patterns of fire activity most closely followed big changes in human activity in the region. Before the Spanish colonization of California, Native Americans regularly set small forest fires. The result was a mosaic of burned and unburned patches, which reduced the amount of fuel available to fires and limited the spread of any particular fire.

However, once the Spanish arrived in 1769, Native American populations rapidly declined because of disease and other causes. In addition, the Spanish government banned the use of fire. Without regular fires, fuels built up, leading to more and larger fires. The influx of people to California during the Gold Rush that began in 1848 reduced fire activity. The large numbers of livestock brought by the immigrants grazed on the grasses and other plants that would otherwise have been fuel for forest fires. In 1904, the U.S. government established a fire suppression policy on federal lands. After that, fire activity dropped to its lowest level since 1600. Starting in the 1980s, as the climate warms, fire frequency and severity has increased again. Fires now can be ‘bad’ fires because of a century or more of fire suppression, according to lead co-author Taylor, a professor of geography at Penn State. ‘It is important for people to understand that fires in the past were not necessarily the same as they are today,’ Taylor said. ‘They were mostly surface fires. Today we see more canopy-killing fires.’”

German Offshore Wind Energy Woes…Ship Forced To Guard Exposed Underwater Transmission Cable

Volatile winds, burning generators, failing blades and buckling towers: these are just some of the technical problems plaguing wind power and thus making it a highly undependable and unreliable source of electricity.

Now we hear from NDR German public broadcasting reported of yet another problem plaguing the North Sea Riffgat offshore wind park located off the coast of the island of Borkum: an exposed underwater power transmission line.

Apparently the huge underwater cable delivering the green power from Riffgat to the mainland had been embedded below the seabed, but for some reason last April it somehow worked itself up above the seabed and is now exposed – vulnerable to North Sea maritime traffic.

Today a ship and a crew remain standing guard at the sea surface above the exposed cable in what the NDR calls “probably the most boring job on the planet”.

Riffgat is 15 kilometers northwest of Borkum and just north of the bustling shipping channel in the southern North Sea. Its 30 wind turbines are built over an area of 6 square kilometers and have a total capacity of 113 megawatts.

It’s not the first time that Riffgat has seen big problems. Between November 2015 and April 2016, transmission troubles kept Riffgat from exporting power.

According to NDR, the Dutch “Faxaborg” patrol ship manned by a crew of four has been floating at the site since April in order to “warn ships of an unusually dangerous area of hazard”.

NDR writes that some 200 meters of the transmission cable became exposed above the seabed one year ago, a condition that has been confirmed by grid-operating company Tennet.

According to NDR, the 50 kilometer long cable was laid with great effort 3 meters below the seabed and that the 200-meter section was washed away by the turbulent North Sea. Tennet says the exposed cable poses no hazard, but the Faxaborg ship was dispatched to stand guard as “a precautionary measure” to make sure “no fishing nets or anchors get caught with the cable”. The cable is only 8 meters below the sea surface at the location.

Guarding the cable is expected to continue indefinitely, at least until summer when the cable can be buried again. But a real solution remains elusive, NDR writes, adding:

Finding the right solution is no easy task. Just how much the entire affair will cost – indirectly to the consumers – was not stated by the Tennet spokesperson. That’s a company secret.”

Green Energy Revolution A Flop: Fossil Fuels’ Share Of Total Energy Use Unchanged in 40 Years!

Quartz.com here presents an interesting chart which tells us the green energy revolution of the past 30 years has resulted in practically nothing. It’s been a flop. Fossil fuels remain as wildly popular as ever.

Global fossil fuel use as a share of total energy has risen since James Hansen’s 1988 testimony. Chart: Quartz.com.

In the 1970s the big worry was that fossil fuels would soon run out, and so we should “use them wisely”. But in the 1980s the risk changed to one of an overheating planet, and so we should not use them at all.

Higher than 1988, when James Hansen testified

We can all recall a sweating James Hansen’s 1988 stage-crafted testimony before Congress, warning that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations would lead to spiraling global warming. And unless action was taken urgently, the ice caps would soon melt and the earth would sizzle.

Countries as a result mobilized 100s of billions of dollars to eliminate the use of these “dangerous, climate-killing” fossil fuels.

Today for all that money you’d think that tremendous progress in reducing fossil fuels would be the result. You couldn’t be more wrong.

The sad truth is that after hundreds of billions spent, and trillions committed, fossil fuels’ share of total energy consumption globally has in fact risen since Hansen’s doomsday testimony, see the figure above!

Bringing the dead back to life

What may be a surprise to many is that whenever we burn fossil fuels, which originate primarily from ancient plants that died and were naturally sequestered in the earth as “fossils” eons ago, we are in fact taking this once live carbon and recirculating it back into the current, living ecosystem. The result: More carbon-based life is getting produced today. The planet is greening. Now the earth is teeming with more life than it has seen in millions of years. That’s fundamental science.

So if you want the system to have more life, just add carbon to it. One way is to add old carbon (by burning fossil fuels) that’s been locked away in the ground.

On the other hand if you want to limit life, then remove the carbon from the eco-system. Funny how the alarmists claim to be worried about life being under threat on earth, yet are striving to remove its very source.

2 New Papers Find Stable To Growing Penguin Populations In The ‘Global Warming’ Era

‘Marked And Steady Increase’

In Modern Penguin Abundance

Perhaps because of their unique visual appeal and heavy representation in children’s books and movies (and climate blogs), penguins may subjectively rank second only to polar bears in their polar popularity.

The Polar Bear As ‘Global Warming’ Icon

Advocates of climate alarm have historically used images of forlorn and starving polar bears stranded on melting ice floes to spur human guilt and policy action.  In 2008, polar bears were even classified as endangered due to modeled expectations of their imminent demise.

According to recently published peer-reviewed scientific papers, however, polar bears have been defying the narrative that says dangerous anthropogenic global warming (DAGW) is targeting them for extinction.

That’s because in recent decades 92% of Canadian polar bear subpopulations have remained stable or increased, leading scientists to conclude that “it seems unlikely that polar bears (as a species) are at risk from anthropogenic global warming” (York et al., 2016).  Local Inuit populations even report that there are “too many polar bears now” (Wong et al., 2017).

How About Penguins?

Since the Arctic’s polar bears have not been cooperating with the DAGW narrative (by failing to die off in greater numbers), perhaps penguins, another beloved polar species, could take their place.  After all, the plight of Antarctica’s penguins has not received nearly as much worldwide attention or sympathy.

But scientists have found that penguins have not been cooperating with DAGW expectations either.

In recent decades, and over the course of the last 200 years, penguin numbers have either increased or remained stable.

Penguin Population Dynamics And Climate

Scientists have historically determined that increasing Adélie penguin numbers seem to coincide with warm periods, whereas cooling periods elicit population declines (Emslie et al., 2007Huang et al., 2009).

According to Yang et al. (2018), however, increases in penguin abundance coincide with cooling periods.  They note that there were higher Adélie penguin numbers in the Ross Sea region during the Little Ice Age (1600s to early 1800s) than during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Interestingly, though, these scientists also found that there has been no net change in penguin population since the 1800s, a determination that would not appear to fit the perspective that modern climate changes are unprecedented or even unusual.

Furthermore, when it’s considered that there has been no significant regional temperature change between the 1880s and mid-2000s, and that the Ross Sea has undergone a dramatic cooling trend (-1.59°C per decade) since 1979 (Sinclair et al., 2012), any decreasing population trend in recent decades would necessarily coincide with a cooling rather than warming climate.

In another paper published in the journal Nature Communications a few months ago, Che-Castaldo et al. (2017) analyzed 267 Adélie penguin colonies residing on the Antarctic continent and found their numbers have undergone a “marked and steady increase between 1982 and 2015.

Reindeer, Perhaps?

With both polar bears and penguins perpetually failing to support the narrative invoking deep concern about the species-depleting effects of anthropogenic global warming, perhaps a new animal icon foreshadowing the dangers of climate change will emerge at some point.

Reindeer are polar animals that are seasonally quite popular.   Perhaps they could take the place of polar bears and penguins.

Or not.

Bårdsen et al., 2017     The Pursuit of Population Collapses: Long-Term Dynamics of Semi-Domestic Reindeer in Sweden  We investigated the population dynamics of Swedish semi-domestic reindeer from 1945 to 2012 at the reindeer herding district-level (Sameby) to identify possible population collapses or declines […] but found no evidence of large-scale reindeer population declines and no visible synchrony across adjacent populations. Our findings were unexpected as both reindeer populations and the pastoral lifestyle face increased habitat loss, predation, fragmentation and climate change.

Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial

estimates of Adélie penguin abundance…

Che-Castaldo et al., 2017

[A]ggregated abundance [for 267 Adélie penguin colonies] across all sites in this region showed extended periods of both increasing and decreasing abundance over the last three decades [1982-2015].

We also find a long-term decline in abundance in the South Orkney Islands, following an initial period of increase in the early 1980s. In contrast, we found a marked and steady increase in abundance around the rest of the Antarctic continent, including both Eastern Antarctica and the Ross Sea.

Commensurate with other studies [Lynch et al., 2013], we find that the population of Adélie penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula declined between 2000 and 2008, though we found an unexpected rebound in abundance starting in 2008. This regional increase in abundance may, in part, be driven by sites in the Marguerite Bay area, where Adélie penguins are stable or even increasing. However, this increase may also reflect a cessation of regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula since the late 1990s [Turner et al., 2016], which may benefit ice-dependent species like the Adélie penguin.

We find that while Eastern Antarctica appears to have been increasing steadily in abundance since at least 1982, the increasing abundance of Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea is more recent, beginning in 2002.

 


Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases

during the Little Ice Age … southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

Yang et al., 2018

Adélie penguin populations as inferred from […] southern Cape Bird declined slightly from ∼1450 to ∼1600 AD, began to rise afterward and reached their highest level in ∼1700 AD, then declined with fluctuations to the lowest levels through ∼1900 AD. For the past 100 yr, Adélie penguin populations experienced a sharp rise and drop.

Monitoring data have shown that Adélie penguins at Cape Bird had an increasing trend in the 1970s, likely linked with changes in sea-ice extent and polynya size, but also with variation in competition with minke whales (Ainley et al., 2005; Wilson et al., 2001). Our study suggests that the penguin populations increased in the 1960s as well, consistent with their research.

Over the past 500 yr at Cape Bird, Adélie penguin populations increased during the cold period (∼1600–1825 AD), which is inconsistent with the general pattern in other studies, for example, penguin populations increased when climate became warmer, and vice versa (Emslie et al., 2007; Huang et al., 2009; Sun et al., 2000).

Columbia Asylum/Warming Study Given “Damning Verdict” By German Spiegel, Leading Scientists

Science journalist Axel Bojanowski at German flagship, center-left news weekly Spiegel here dismissed a recent study published by Columbia University scientists Wolfram Schlenker and Anouch Missirian, who had claimed climate warming was driving masses of environmental refugees to Europe.

The two scientists claimed in Science to have found a relationship between weather disasters and refugees migrating to Europe.

However, the far-fetched conclusions by the two scientists has since been met with sharp and harsh criticism for its loose use of statistics. The study was financed by the JRC of the European Union. One member of the JRC, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, said it was time for policy makers to act.

Paper gets “crushing assessment” from other scientists

However, Spiegel’s Bojanowski reports that a number of leading experts dismissed the paper’s claims. For example Thomas Bernauer and Vally Koubi the Zurich-based ETH said: “Politicians would be ill-advised to orient themselves based on this study.”

Bojanowski added that other experts SPIEGEL ONLINE asked gave it “a damning verdict“.

“Dumbest use of statistics”

The Spiegel journalist also took jabs at other leading media outlets, such as the Guardian, Reuters and AP, implying they uncritically used the study for hype.

Bojanowski then cited statistics expert William Briggs of Cornell to assess the methodology used by the study:

The dumbest, most idiotic use of statistics that I’ve seen in a long time.”

Tobias Ide of the Georg Eckert Institute also warned against simplifying “the relationship between warmer temperatures and migration“, Bojanowski wrote, and that Jonas Vestby of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo was surprised the paper ever got by peer-review.

Christiane Fröhlich of the University of Hamburg is considering a rebuttal at Science, Spiegel’s Bojanowski wrote.

Confusion

Fröhlich says the Columbia University authors confused environmental refugees with political refugees. In Europe refugee status is given to persons who are politically oppressed and persecuted and not to those moving due to the environment. Critics of the study also called the projections and correlations claimed by Schlenker and Missirian as “highly speculative“.

Fröhlich also told Spiegel the paper “ignored numerous studies” on migration and warming. Briggs added that the two authors based their assumptions on only “15 years and in only one region” and “ignored 6000 years of human history“.

Bojanowski cited Briggs:

Just how important it would have been to include other regions was made clear by Briggs using one provocative question: ‘Why then don’t asylum applications in cool Chile rise after heat waves in the warm neighboring countries?'”

 

Climate Scientists’ Projections Refuted…Data Show Tornadoes Becoming LESS FREQUENT!

Tornadoes have become less frequent since 2010: Pacific ocean cycles control storm frequency

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

We haven’t heard much about tornadoes lately. For a while they were the favorites among climate activists. When did the love affair end? Here we cast a look at the official NOAA tornado statistics:

Fig. 1: Cumulative curve showing the number of tornadoes. Chart: NOAA.

Here we see 2017 was (fortunately) only average. The tornado trend over the past 60 years below shows the comparisons clearly. From 2005-2010 we saw an increased frequency of tornadoes in the USA, but they’ve since become less frequent. That’s bad news for the purveyors of catastrophe stories.

Fig. 2: Number of tornadoes in the USA since 1950. Source: NOAA.

With respect to the dangers of tornadoes, Hannes Stein asked in 2013 at German daily Welt, why Americans do not build build more stable structures, for example homes made of stone instead of wood:

Tornado damage is terrible – so why don’t Americans build better homes? That’s what Europeans ask, and thus prove their ignorance and arrogance.”

By the way, one finds an excellent display of global winds at ventusky.com.

So why does tornado activity fluctuate so much over the course of decades? Scientists at the University of Missouri found the answer: Tornadoes are influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as explained in a press release dated October 10, 2013:

Pacific Ocean Temperature Influences Tornado Activity in U.S., MU Study Finds
Meteorologists often use information about warm and cold fronts to determine whether a tornado will occur in a particular area. Now, a University of Missouri researcher has found that the temperature of the Pacific Ocean could help scientists predict the type and location of tornado activity in the U.S.

Laurel McCoy, an atmospheric science graduate student at the MU School of Natural Resources, and Tony Lupo, professor and chair of atmospheric science in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, surveyed 56,457 tornado-like events from 1950 to 2011. They found that when surface sea temperatures were warmer than average, the U.S. experienced 20.3 percent more tornados that were rated EF-2 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fuijta (EF) scale. (The EF scale rates the strength of tornados based on the damage they cause. The scale has six category rankings from zero to five.). McCoy and Lupo found that the tornados that occurred when surface sea temperatures were above average were usually located to the west and north of tornado alley, an area in the Midwestern part of the U.S. that experiences more tornados than any other area. McCoy also found that when sea surface temperatures were cooler, more tornadoes tracked from southern states, like Alabama, into Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana.

“Differences in sea temperatures influence the route of the jet stream as it passes over the Pacific and, eventually, to the United States,” McCoy said. “Tornado-producing storms usually are triggered by, and will follow, the jet stream. This helps explain why we found a rise in the number of tornados and a change in their location when sea temperatures fluctuated.” In the study, McCoy and Lupo examined the relationship between tornadoes and a climate phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). PDO phases, which were discovered in the mid-1990s, are long-term temperature trends that can last up to 30 years. […]. “In the warm phase, which lasted from 1977 to 1999, the west Pacific Ocean became cool and the wedge in the east was warm.”

Also the El Ninos and the La Ninas (ENSO) impact tornadoes, as documented by Lepore et al. 2017:

ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March–May U.S. tornado and hail activity
Extended logistic regression is used to predict March–May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December–February (DJF) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.”

There are also tornadoes in Germany from time to time. However, there has been no discernable trend over the past 15 years as shown by he Figure 7 in the DWD report.

2 New Papers Indicate Modern Climate Still In A ‘Colder Stage’, Modulated By Solar Activity, ENSO

Graph from Perner et al. (2018) that shows modern-day Arctic sea ice (furthest left navy trend line) is still only slightly lower than during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and much more extensive (more ice) than during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Roman Warm Period (RWP), and nearly all of the last 7,000 years.

Song et al., 2018

[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present.

The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity.


Perner et al., 2018

[W]e find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability.

Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the ‘2800 years BP cooling event’, the ‘Dark Ages’ and the ‘Little Ice Age’, whereas the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state.

Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late Holocene, suggesting ENSO as a potential mediator.

German Post Electric Delivery Vehicles Falter, “Lose Power Mid Delivery Route”

The online Die Welt/N24 here reports on how the German Post, Deutsche Post, put electric vehicles dubbed Streetscooters” into action last summer with the high hopes of making mail delivery greener.

Months later it is emerging that things are not working out as hoped, as a myriad of technical problems have emerged. With winter weather in full swing, postal workers are finding out that they have to choose between turning on the heater are becoming stranded in the middle of the route because the vehicle’s battery has lost its charge, Die Welt/N24 reports.

The electric delivery vehicles are manufactured by StreetScooter GmbH, a subsidiary of Deutsche Port DHL Group since 2014. The company boasts at its website that it used “pioneering approaches” in development and production that allowed them to present our first electric vehicle at IAA 2011 “after just 18 months of development”.

Fear of not getting back

That fast track development appears to have come at a high cost, as Deutsche Post drivers complain that the vehicles normally does not get much further than 70 km, and no where hear the 100 km range that is pitched. “Again and again the driver is forced to decide when to turn around in order to make it back,” reports Die Welt/N24.

Currently the German postal giant has some 5000 Streetscooters on the road with another 25,000 scheduled to be added to the fleet soon.

Potential death trap?

The Street scooter is also very lightly built, and thus many drivers fear getting into an accident. “In many cases, the vehicle’s hood popped open while on route,” reports Die Welt/N24. Also drivers are reported to be more focused on getting back than they are on delivering the parcels.

DieWelt/N24 also reports that complaints by delivery drivers have been ignored and no improvements have been implemented, instead the problems are blamed on driver “operating faults”.

Moreover, according to Die Welt/N24: “Internal documents concerning suggestions for improvement are confidential. Anyone who makes public complaints, risks employment legal action and including an official warning.”

Green commercial utility vehicles, even on a tiny scale, obviously still have a long way to go, and so far appear suitable only for limited application – like on parks and golf courses.

Of 152 Beers Sampled in 2017…Craft, Red Ales Made The Top Of My Favorite List

Here is something totally off topic, to kick off the New Year. When dealing with climate alarmists, sometimes something relaxing is needed at the end of the day.

Beer’s healing power

Last April on my birthday I got a book called “Das Heilkraft des Bieres” (The Healing Power of Beer). I was fascinated by the fact that beer in moderation (1 or 2 per day) has the same or even more health benefits as red wine does.

Die Heilkraft des Bieres, Kopp Verlag.

Beer fires up the digestive system, and it delivers a number of nutrients and anti-oxidants which protect your body against a number of diseases. A number of studies were cited to show this. Also it showed that people who drank moderately and regularly performed better cognitively.

Beer’s health benefits have been underestimated and the sudsy beverage has been unfairly associated with the “beer belly”.

24 fun facts about beer

I was also fascinated by the huge variety of beers available out there which I neglected to explore all these years. For years I made the mistake of sticking to the same brand of pilsner, and using it as the benchmark to evaluate others.

152 beers from 18 countries

So as an experiment I endeavored to taste one different beer almost every day. Since then I’ve sampled over 150 different ones.Below you’ll find the full (alphabetical) list.

Eight months later, I don’t have a beer belly nor have I gained weight. I found out I have taken a real liking to red and pale ales, and that I no longer find the standard, run-of-the-mill pilsner beers that interesting any more. I’ve discovered that they are rather boring by comparison, but go down easily and hence are pushed by the beer industry to generate volume.

Stoutest of the stouts

Also Guinness, considered by many as the stout beer, is actually quite mild compared to the Baltic Stout by Inselbrauerei (No. 75 on list). Now that is stout!

The best beers generally are produced by private-run craft breweries, and unfiltered. Positively surprising to me were the beers from the Mashsee brewery of Hanover.

Other points observed are that Russian beers are rather plain and the Chinese, Korean and Japanese beers seemed to be beers for very beginners – pretty delicate stuff.

God-awful

I found Corona to be unnatural and not very tasty, and so it’s not a surprise many people like to take it with a wedge of lime. The Mexican brew comes in a clear bottle and its ingredients include additives, stabilizers and preservatives. Hard to believe I used to drink the stuff when I lived in Arizona.

Most of the beers listed below are pleasurable to drink, but a couple I found god-awful, such as Moosehead Light (Canada) and Baltika KYπEP of Russia. I had to discard the stuff. Also Raschhofer Witbier brewed in part with oatmeal did not go down so well – not my taste at all.

Maybe readers have their own recommendations.

Today I’m going to sample Insel Herb brewed by Inselbrauerei on the Baltic Sea island of Rugen. Let me know your favorite, if you have one.

Happy New Year everyone!

152 beers sampled in 2017

1. Affligem Triple                                                       (Belgium)
2. Ahornberger Landbier                                         (Germany)
3. Ahornberger Landbier Premium                       (Germany)
4. Ahornberger Landbier Märzen                          (Germany)
5. Allgäuer Bayrisch Hell                                         (Germany)
6. Andechser Doppelbock                                        (Germany)
7. Artland Pilsner                                                       (Germany)
8. Artland NOX*                                                         (Germany)
9. Asahi Super Dry                                                     (Japan)
10. Astra Urtyp                                                            (Germany)
11. Augsburger Original Naturtrübes Kellerbier  (Germany)
12. Aventinus Weizenstarkbier                                (Germany)
13. Bad Santa Christmas Beer                                  (Austria)
14. Baisinger Helles Teufel Bock                             (Germany)
15. Baldur Nordic Märzen                                        (Germany)
16. Baltika KYπEP                                                      (Russia)
17. Baltika 2 Lager                                                     (Russia)
18. Bannas Bier                                                          (Germany)
19. Barre Pilsner                                                        (Germany)
20. Bayerisch Hell                                                     (Germany)
21. Bayreuther Hell                                                   (Germany)
22. Beck’s Amber Lager                                           (Germany)
23. Beck’s Blue Alcoholfree                                     (Germany)
24. Beck’s Pale Ale *                                                 (Germany)
25. Beck’s Red Ale *                                                  (Germany)
26. Berliner Berg California Wheat                       (USA)
27. Bernstein Pale Ale                                              (Germany)
28. Bolten Helles                                                       (Germany)
29. Bosch Pilsner Extra Hops                                 (Germany)
30. Braufaktum The Brale                                       (Germany)
31. Breznak Original Böhmisch Pilsner                (Czech Republic)
32. Brooklyn East IPA *                                           (USA)
33. Budvar B:Original Imported Lager                (Czech Republic)
34. Budvar B:Dark                                                    (Czech Republic)
35. Camba Dry Hop Brown Ale*                            (Germany)
36. Cass Fresh                                                           (Korea)
37. Cave Creek Chili Beer                                        (USA)
38. Corona Extra                                                      (Mexico)
39. Derail Pale Ale*                                                  (England)
40. Desperados Tequila Beer                                 (Mexico)
41. Diebels Altbier                                                    (Germany)
42. Dortmunder Union Export                              (Germany)
43. Duckstein Rotblondes                                       (Germany)
44. Efes Pilsener                                                       (Germany)
45. Einbecker Ur-Bock Hell                                   (Germany)
46. Einsiedler Landbier                                          (Germany)
47. Elefant Bayerisch Hell                                      (Germany)
48. Erdinger Dunkel                                               (Germany)
49. Erdinger Weissbier                                           (Germany)
50. Erdinger Alkoholfreies                                     (Germany)
51. Estrella Damm                                                    (Catalonia)
52. Feieromd                                                             (Germany)
53. Firestone Union Jack IPA*                             (USA)
54. Flensburger Dunkel                                          (Germany)
55. Flensburger Malz                                              (Germany)
56. Flensburger Winterbock                                 (Germany)
57. Frankenheim Alt                                               (Germany)
58. Franziskaner Weissbier                                   (Germany)
59. Füchschen Silber Weizenbier                         (Germany)
60. Gatz Altbier                                                       (Germany)
61. Grolsch Premium Lager                                   (Netherlands)
62. Guinness Extra Stout                                       (Ireland)
63. Hachenburger                                                   (Germany)
64. Hacke Beck Pilsner                                          (Germany)
65. Hasseröder Pils                                                 (Germany)
66. Hengelager Helles                                            (Self-made)
67. Herrenbräu Zwickl                                           (Germany)
68. Herrenhäußer Premium Pilsner                   (Germany)
69. Hirsch Hefeweisse                                            (Germany)
70. Hoepfner Pilsner                                               (Germany)
71. Hohenthanner Blau Weisse                             (Germany)
72. Hopfenburger Pilsner                                       (Germany)
73. Hopfenstopfer Incredible Pale Ale                 (Germany)
74. Inselbrauerei Baltic Dubbel                             (Germany)
75. Inselbrauerei Baltic Stout *                             (Germany)
76. Inselbrauerei Baltic Ale                                    (Germany)
77. Jenning’s Cumberland Deep Golden Ale      (England)
78. Jever Pilsner *                                                    (Germany)
79. Kapuziner Weißbier                                          (Germany)
80. Kauzen Winter Weisse Dunkler Weizen-Bock  (Germany)
81. Kilkenny Red Ale *                                             (Ireland)
82. Kirin Ichiban Premium                                     (Japan)
83. Kitzmann Kellerbier                                          (Germany)
84. Kloster Scheyern Export Dunkel                    (Germany)
85. König Ludwig Dunkel                                       (Germany)
86. Köstritzer Schwarzbier                                     (Germany)
87. Köstritzer Kellerbier                                         (Germany)
88. Krombacher Pilsner                                          (Germany)
87. Krombacher Dunkel                                          (Germany)
88. Kronsberg Pilsner                                              (Germany)
89. Landfürst Altbier                                               (Germany)
90. Lausitzer Porter Schwarzes                             (Germany)
91. Leffe Brune                                                          (Germany)
92. Leikheim Landbier                                            (Germany)
93. Leikheim Weißbier                                            (Germany)
94. Longboard Island Lager*                                 (USA)
95. Louis Barre Imperial Bouquet Lager            (Germany)
96. Maisel Pale Ale                                                  (Germany)
97. Marston’s Pedigree Amber Ale                       (England)
98. Mashsee Captain Blaubeer Porter                 (Germany)
99. Mashsee Hafen Sänger Baltic Porter            (Germany)
100. Mashsee India Pale Lager *                          (Germany)
101. Mashsee Trainingslager                                 (Germany)
102. Maxtepckoe                                                      (Ukraine)
103. Meissner Schwerter Pilsner                          (Germany)
104. Meissner Schwerter Augustus Porter          (Germany)
105. Mönchhof Märzen                                           (Germany)
106. Mönchhof Kellerbier                                       (Germany)
107. Moosehead Light                                             (Canada)
108. Oettinger Dunkles Hefeweizen                     (Germany)
109. Ostfriesenbräu Landbier Dunkel                 (Germany)
110. Paulaner Münchener Hell                              (Germany)
111. Paulaner Salvator                                              (Germany)
112. Perlenzauber German Pale Ale *                  (Germany)
113. Pilsner Urquell                                                  (Czech Republic)
114. Pinkus Jubilate                                                 (Germany)
115. Pioneer Glutenfrei Pilsner                              (Germany)
116. Pyraser Pilsener                                                (Germany)
117. Raschhofer Lebenskunstler Witbier             (Germany)
118. Ratsherrn Ratsbier                                           (Germany)
119. Riegele Robustus 6                                           (Germany)
120. Salzburger Stiegl Goldbräu                            (Austria)
121. Samuel Adams Boston Lager                          (USA)
122. San Miguel Lager                                              (Mexico)
123. Sapporo Premium                                             (Japan)
124. Schachtesskoye                                                 (Russia)
125. Schlossbrauerei Sündenbock Doppelbock  (Germany)
126. Schloßbräu Rheder Original Pils                   (Germany)
127. Schlösser Alt                                                       (Germany)
128. Schlüssel Original Alt                                       (Germany)
129. Schöfferhofer Hefeweizen                               (Germany)
130. Staropramen Premium                                    (Czech Republic)
131. Stauder Premium Pilsner                                 (Germany)
132. Störtebeker Atlantic Ale *                                (Germany)
133. Störtebeker Bernstein Weizen                         (Germany)
134. Störtebeker Roggen-Weizen                            (Germany)
135. Störtebeker Schwarzbier                                   (Germany)
136. Störtebeker Starkbier                                         (Germany)
137. T.H. König Zwickl Kellerbier                            (Germany)
138. Tsingtao                                                                (China)
139. Tuborg Pilsner                                                    (Denmark)
140. Tyskie Gronie                                                      (Poland)
141. Uerige Altbier                                                      (Germany)
142. Veltins Pilsner                                                     (Germany)
143. Von Freude Just Pils*                                       (Germany)
144. Warsteiner Herb                                                (Germany)
145. Warsteiner Pilsner                                            (Germany)
146. Westerwald Bräu                                               (Germany)
147. Wicküler Pilsner                                                (Germany)
148. Zatecky Gus                                                        (Czech Republic)
149. Zhigulevskyoe                                                    (Russia)
150. Zötler Vollmond Bier                                        (Germany)
151. Zwick’l Kellerbier                                               (Germany)
152. Zwönitz Feieromd Rotblondes Bier               (Germany)

* Beers I liked very much.

485 Scientific Papers Published In 2017 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm

‘Consensus’ Science

Takes A Hit In 2017

During 2017,  485 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media.

These 485 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.

More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.

N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.

N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability, as clearly shown in the first 150 graphs (from 2017) on this list.

N(3) The computer climate models are not reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.

N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).

In sharp contrast to the above, the corresponding “consensus” positions that these papers do not support are:

A(1) Close to or over 100% (110%) of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leaving natural attribution at something close to 0%.

RealClimate.org: “The best estimate of the warming due to anthropogenic forcings (ANT) is the orange bar (noting the 1𝛔 uncertainties). Reading off the graph, it is 0.7±0.2ºC (5-95%) with the observed warming 0.65±0.06 (5-95%). The attribution then follows as having a mean of ~110%, with a 5-95% range of 80–130%. This easily justifies the IPCC claims of having a mean near 100%, and a very low likelihood of the attribution being less than 50% (p < 0.0001!).”

A(2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities…are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)…and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.

A(3) The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural forcing factors (solar activity, clouds, water vapor, etc.) and CO2 concentration changes on climate is “settled enough“, which means that “the time for debate has ended“.

A(4) The proposed solutions to mitigate the dangerous consequences described in N(4) – namely, wind and solar expansion – are safe, effective, and environmentally-friendly.

To reiterate, the 485 papers compiled in 2017 support the N(1)-N(4) positions, and they undermine or at least do not support the “consensus” A(1)-A(4) positions.  The papers do not do more than that.   Expectations that these papers should do more than support skeptical positions and undermine “consensus” positions to “count” are deemed unreasonable in this context.

Below are the two links to the list of 485 papers as well as the guideline for the lists’ categorization.

Skeptic Papers 2017 (1)

Skeptic Papers 2017 (2)


(Parts 1 and 2 are on the same page).  

Part 1. Natural Mechanisms Of Weather, Climate Change  

Solar Influence On Climate (121)
ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (44)
Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (13)
Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (9)
Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (6)
The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (15)

Part 2. Unsettled Science, Failed Climate Modeling

Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (28)
Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (12)
Wind Power Harming The Environment, Biosphere (8)
Elevated CO2 Greens Planet, Produces Higher Crop Yields (14)
Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (7)
Warming, Acidification Not Harming Oceanic Biosphere (17)
Decreases In Extreme, Unstable Weather With Warming (3)
Urban Heat Island: Raising Surface Temperatures Artificially (5)
No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (4)
No Increasing Trends In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (3)
Natural CO2, Methane Sources Out-Emit Human Source (4)
Increasing Snow Cover Since The 1950s (2)
Miscellaneous (7)

Part 3. Natural Climate Change Observation, Reconstruction

Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (38)
No Net Warming During 20th (21st) Century (12)
A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (60)
Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (7)
A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (32)
Antarctic Ice Melting In High Geothermal Heat Flux Areas (4)
Recent Cooling In The North Atlantic, Southern Ocean (10)

Dark Days For German Solar Power, Country Saw Only 10 Hours Of Sun In All Of December!

What follows is a chart showing the measly amount of power that Germany’s more than 40 gigawatts of installed solar electricity capacity actually managed to produce (yellow) in December, 2017 (you may have to squint):

Germany’s more than 40 gigawatts of installed solar capacity barely produced anything in December 2017. Curved line shows German demand. Chart source: Agora.

Now that you’ve fallen on the floor with laughter and managed to get back on your chair, you can understand what is going on in green la-la-land.

This is the story of Germany’s Energiewende: install as much capacity of each type renewable energy as possible, and hope that one of them works when the others don’t. Currently Germany has well over 40 gigawatts of installed PV capacity, enough to power half of the country at lunchtime on a sunny day. But it all does nothing at night, or in the wintertime when the sun stays blotted out by Germany’s notoriously cloudy climate and short daylight hours.

This past December in Hanover the the sun shined a mere 10 hours over the entire month. In Lüdenscheid the sun was seen less than one hour!

Michael Kruger writes at Science Skeptical:

Photovoltaic: 10 hours of sun in December 2017

Sonnenstunden-Hannover-Dez2017

Image: NDR German Public Television – “Hallo Niedersachsen”

Weathergirl Claudia Kleinert of NDR television above showed on ‘Hallo Niedersachsen’ [Hello Lower Saxony] the number of sunshine hours in December 2017. Hanover reached a whole 10 hours for December. The average value for December in Hanover is 39 hours, thus this past December reached only a quarter of the sun’s usual output.

The operators of photovoltaic systems have not seen any real output at all. Imagine if the coal power plants had operated only 10 hours for the whole month of December, and only a bit over the daytime. They’d be mothballed immediately because of lack of economy.”

Global Cooling Expected For 2018 …Warming Projection May Be One Of The Great Scientific Blunders Of Modern Times

Global warming scientists continue struggling to find an explanation for the nearly 2 decades long global warming pause that has taken hold of the planet since the late 1990s.

The most recent temperature spike was due to the natural El Nino event at the equatorial Pacific, and that has disappeared over the last months. Alarmists claim that the global temperature is still 0.5°C above normal, yet it’s been so for the past 20 years!

Cooling signs abound

The search to explain the unexpected lack of warming is about to get a little tougher as 2018 is poised to see a further cooling across the globe. Signs of this cool-off are showing up in Greenland, the Arctic, Antarctica, Greenland and all across the northern hemisphere. A huge swath of North America has started 2018 with record cold.

La Nina to persist until spring

Another major reason cooler global surface temperatures are expected in 2018 is the now strengthening La Nina event taking place as equatorial Pacific surface temperatures have plummeted by 1-2°C since June of this year. This means that global cooling lies ahead for the planet in the months ahead. The latest forecast sees La Nina conditions extending into next spring:

There is a lag of about 6 months between the ocean surface temperature and satellite global lower troposphere temperatures. That means the la Nina low forecast for January, 2018, will start showing up in the temperatures by late spring (NH).

Cooling Pacific and Indian Ocean far more signficant

Alarmists also like hollering about the current unusual warmth at the poles. But veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweets here that the “warmth” at the poles is not what we need to be looking at, writing that “far more significant” is the cooler area from the Indian ocean through Africa, the Atlantic, South America and the Pacific.

Cooling where it’s warm and humid a bigger deal in future global temp considerations.”

In a nutshell, a cool square kilometer over the equatorial Pacific far outweighs a warm square kilometer over the North Pole. All that red coloring scientists like to use to make the poles look hot is mostly hype.

Solar activity near 200-year low

In the current solar cycle 24 sunspot activity is now at the lowest level in almost 200 years. In the early 1800s the Earth found itself in the grips of the Dalton Minimum, a cold period with similarly low solar activity:

The accumulated sunspot anomaly from the mean of the previous 23 cycles – 107 months into the cycle.

A number of distinguished scientists and dozens of scientific publications warn that the planet may in fact be entering a period of global cooling. There were 7 such papers in 2017 alone.

One of the great scientific blunders of modern times

The upcoming solar cycle 25 also is expected to be a weak one, which bodes ill for the planet for the next 10 to 15 years. The current solar cycle 24 is the third weakest since the systematic observation of solar cycle activity began in 1755. Only solar cycles no. 5 and 6 (1798 – 1823 during the Dalton Minimum) were weaker.

As the above chart shows, weak solar cycles are linked to cool periods and come in bunches, alternating with the warm solar cycle bunches. It’s little wonder that the last 100 years have seen a warming, as cycles 17-23 were all above normal. If the pattern holds, cycle 26, and possibly even cycle 27, will also be below normal, which points to a cooling 21st century.

Ironically policymakers, in typical inept fashion, may be erroneously preparing societies for the completely wrong scenario and thus be unwittingly committing one of the great scientific blunders of modern times.