We are told the globe is rapidly and dangerously warming, and that this rapid and dangerous warming has been predominantly caused by the steep rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions that began about the mid-1940s.
We even have a widely-recognized “hockey stick” graph of the Northern Hemisphere — created by Michael Mann in the late 1990s and popularized by the IPCC (2001) — to “prove” that modern warming has been synchronously global in scale, as well as rapid, dangerous, and perhaps even unprecedented (“the warmest on record”).
There is a problem with this paradigm, however. An enormous problem.
That is, when scientists reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SST) and land surface temperatures and deep ocean heat content from the paleoclimate record (hundreds to thousands of years ago) using existing physical proxy evidence, and when they use this same physical evidence to reconstruct the modern temperatures, the rapid and dangerous warming trend that mysteriously forms a hockey stick shape for recent decades seems to just simply . . . disappear. In its place is a modern record of temperatures from locations all over the world that looks like anything but a rapidly warming, dangerous, and unprecedented hockey stick. Instead, the paleoclimate record reveals the opposite: large regions of the Earth were significantly warmer than they are now for most of the last several thousand years.
Below is a compilation of 50 temperature graphs from peer-reviewed scientific papers. Some graphs indicate that (a) post-1940s temperatures actually declined slightly many regions of the world rather than rose rapidly — the opposite of what climate models had predicted. All the graphs show that (b) modern (post-1940s) temperatures aren’t any warmer than the decades and centuries and millennia prior to the steep increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and in some locations even the Little Ice Age temperatures (1400s to 1800s AD) were warmer than modern. Finally, these 50 graphs clearly show that (c) the conceptualization of global-scale warming, or a globally synchronous rise in temperatures for the vast majority of the Earth’s land and oceanic locations in modern times . . . is not scientifically supportable.
In many parts of the world, today’s temperatures are still among the coldest they’ve been in the last several thousand years according to these graphs. Sea levels, in turn, are at some of the lowest levels of the last 8,000 years; relative sea levels were 1 to 4 meters higher than they are now just a few thousand years ago. Where warming has occurred, it’s been modest and slight, not rapid and dangerous. Perhaps this is why the “hide the decline” phenomenon became so necessary for hockey stick-favoring reconstructionists.
But perhaps advocates of rapid and dangerous global warming caused by humans need not worry about this lack of scientific support for modern hemispheric- and global-scale hockey sticks. Because although scientists have revealed that many locations around the world have not been warming, there are other parts of the ocean and surface that indeed have been warming. And that warming, yes that warming, in those locations, could be said to have been caused by humans.
Saenger et al, 2009 (Bahamas) (Northern Hemisphere)
Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014 (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Oceans)
Discussion: “A very weak long-term [1993-2011] cooling is seen over the bulk of the rest of the ocean below that depth [2000 m], including the entirety of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, along with the eastern Atlantic basin.”
de Jong et al., 2013 (Chile)
Pitman and Smith, 2012 (Canada)
Esper et al., 2012 (Northern Europe, Scandinavia)
Divine et al, 2011 (Norway)
Sunkara and Tiwari, 2016 (India)
Drinkwater, 2006 (Greenland)
Hanna et al., 2004 (Iceland)
Goodkin et al., 2008 (North Atlantic)
Yan et al., 2015 (South China Sea)
Munz et al., 2015 (Arabian Sea)
Matskovsky and Helama, 2015 (Finland, Sweden)
Cook et al., 2009 (Canada)
Gennaretti et al., 2014 (North America)
Incarbona et al., 2016 (Sicily, Aegean Sea)
Rosenthal et al., 2013 (Pacific Ocean Heat Content)
“We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1°C and 1.5°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.”
Zhu et al., 2016 (China)
Ault et al., 2013 (Equatorial Pacific)
Hanhijärvi et al., 2013 (Arctic, North Atlantic)
Schneider et al., 2006 (Antarctica)
Delong et al., 2012 (Tropical Pacific)
Zinke et al., 2014 (South Africa)
Lyu et al., 2016 (China)
Esper et al., 2014 (Northern Europe)
Fudge et al., 2016 (Antarctica)
Grudd et al., 2002 (Sweden)
Jalili et al., 2016 (Mediterranean Sea)
Gjerde et al., 2016 (Norway Glaciers)
Antinao and McDonald, 2013 (Tropical Pacific, California)
Rella and Uchida, 2014 (Antarctica)
Shevenell et al., 2011 (NW Equatorial Pacific, W Antarctica, SE Pacific)
Yamamoto, 2012 (Japan)
Gajewski, 2015 (Canadian Arctic, Greenland)
Fortin and Gajewski, 2016 (Canadian Arctic)
Kim et al., 2007 (North Africa)
Kolansky et al., 2015 (Pacific Ocean)
Lamy et al., 2012 (Chile)
Bostock et al., 2013 (Southern Ocean)
Eldevik et al., 2014 (Norway, Norweigan Sea)
“Through the LH [Late Holocene], ocean temperatures [North Atlantic, Nordic Seas] are comparable to the present, but up to 1 °C warmer”
Prieto et al., 2016 (Argentina, Uruguay) Relative Sea Level
Dura et al., 2016 (Vancouver ) Relative Sea Level
Bracco et al., 2014 (Uruguay)
Kench et al., 2014 (central Pacific Ocean) Relative Sea Level