“Giving Global Warming The Cold Shoulder”…Central European Winters Have Cooled Last 30 Years!

We’re always hearing from the European media how winters supposedly have been getting warmer. Yet when we look out the window and look at the hard data, the claim crumbles.

Atlanta ice box, 8-15 cm of snow!

Today snow is forecast across much of Europe. In the US Dr. Ryan Maue tweets if there is any place other than southern Florida where it is not snowing, and: “Atlanta suffering from 3-6″ of global warming today.”

Record low in Hokkaido

Kirye from Japan tweeted telling us that Ikutahara, Hokkaido Prefecture saw with a reading of -24°C the coldest December 9 temperature in at least 40 years:

Hokkaido temperatures giving CO2 the cold shoulder. Data Source: JMA.

-12°C and snow in the UK!

Meanwhile the UK Met Office has issued the amber warning as temperatures are forecast to plummet to -12°C and snow to pile up to 20 cm.

Of course all of the above do not come as any surprise to those who ignore the media climate propaganda and focus on the real data.

Cooling Central Europe winters past 30 years

The European Institute for Climate and Energy Friday posted on Germany mean winter temperature over the past 30 years. A vastly huge majority of Germans would tell you that Germany winters have gotten warmer – because of “global warming” – and so confirm they are only parroting the fake German news.

Yet, EIKE writes what the reality in Germany really is: “Winter has been giving global warming the cold shoulder“.

A chart of the last 30 winters from data from the German DWD national weather services show that German winters in fact have been cooling:

Chart: Josef Kowatsch.

Going back more than 100 years, since 1910, it is also clear that German mean winter temperatures have nothing to do with CO2:

Germany mean winter temperatures with smoothed polynomial trend curve. Chart: Josef Kowatsch.

So before the German DWD weather services and media blurt claims that winters are becoming warmer, they first ought to look at their own data. There hasn’t been any warming since “global warming” started being an issue at the end of the 1980s.

No winter warming elsewhere

The following charts of winter mean temperature depict locations well beyond Germany, showing Central England, Sapporo Japan, Östersund in Central Sweden, and Oymyakon, Eastern Siberia respectively:

No warming trends seen over the past 30 years at these locations. And the eastern Siberian permafrost is not going anywhere anytime soon, Stefan Krämpfe’s chart tells us.

Of course global temperatures as a whole have warmed since 1980, but it’s nothing that comes close to what the alarmists would like to have us believe. The truth is that there’s been very little warming at all since the late 1990s.

 

Trump: Paris Climate Accord “One Of The Great Catastrophes” …But Leaves Door Open For New Deal

President Donald Trump once again rejected “global governance” and rigid multi-nation trade deals before a packed and highly enthusiastic rally in Pensacola, Florida, yesterday.

Donald Trump leaves door wide open to a fair climate deal. Photo credit: Shealah Craighead, public domain photo.

The US President re-emphasized the importance of American national sovereignty and independence from “global bureaucrats” residing in foreign countries.

In his speech the President brought up the Paris Climate Accord, a deal he refused to sign early this year, thus setting off outrage among the UN, climate activists, global bureaucrats and Accord cash-beneficiary countries worldwide.

“Would have been one of the great catastrophes”

He reminded the packed audience that he had promised “to withdraw…from the horrible Paris climate accord” — another promise he has kept.

He said: “It costs us a fortune. China doesn’t start until 2030, I think. Russia doesn’t have to go back to like a recent date; they go back to somewhere like the 1990s, which was a high pollution time. Other countries we end up giving money to. This would have been one of the great catastrophes.”

“I could come back to the Paris Accord”

But Trump left the door open for a better deal, one that would be much fairer: “And I can come back into the deal at a much better price. I could come back to the Paris Accord.”

Trump then repeated his commitment to “clean air” and “crystal clean water”. He said that if the USA pledged to accept the numbers set forth by the Paris Accord, “We would have to close factories and businesses in order to qualify by 2025. […] In the meantime some of those countries are spewing out stuff like you wouldn’t believe.”

US has already significantly cut emissions

Over the past decade the USA has already substantially cut back its “greenhouse gas” emissions, by an amount that equals Germany’s total annual output – something that never gets mentioned in the media. Paris Climate Accord-promoting Germany on the other hand, has not cut its emissions in almost a decade. Currently the USA emits roughly half as much as China does.

Performance by other climate protection-preaching western countries is not always what it is made out to be. Many western countries are meeting their targets by merely offshoring their CO2-emitting industries over to low environmental standards regions like China and India. The result: global CO2 emissions are in reality higher rather than lower.

Inefficient wind energy

Trump then mocked wind energy as being unreliable and inefficient, saying: “Windmills are wonderful. But you know when the wind doesn’t blow, they really do cause problems. ‘We have no energy this week! Well hopefully the wind will start blowing pretty soon!'”

Time Running Out For Global Warming Hoaxsters… 7 New Studies Show Large Parts Of Globe Cooling!

Recently I wrote about 7 signs showing that the earth has been cooling and likely will continue to cool.

To back this up, Kenneth Richards commented in a reply that this year has seen 7 new peer-reviewed papers that show us that the earth’s surface temperature at the poles and elsewhere has been cooling since about a decade. What’s worrisome is that the southern hemisphere surface is mostly ocean.

Eastern North Atlantic cooling since 2010

The first paper is Gladyshev et al., 2017  which states in its abstract that there’s been “a sharp and stable freshening and cooling of SPMWs [Subpolar Mode Water] in the eastern part of the North Atlantic since 2010 . In the years 2010–2016, the mean temperature of the SPMW [Subpolar Mode Water] core in the Rockall Trough dropped by -0.73°C (-0.12°C/yr); in the Iceland Basin it dropped by -2.12°C (-0.35°C/yr), and salinity decreased by 0.12 psu (0.02 psu/yr) and 0.23 psu (0.04 psu/yr), respectively.”

Subpolar North Atlantic trend reversal in 2005

In another paper, Piecuch et al., 2017,  the authors notes that subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability and found that in 2004–2005 the SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015.

Southern Ocean now cooling

On the other side of the planet at the South Pole the story is pretty much the same. A study this year by Kusahara et al., 2017 showed that in contrast to a strong decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, the overall Antarctic sea ice extent has modestly increased since 1979. The paper’s abstract adds:

Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period.”

Remaining at the South Pole, a new paper by Turney et al., 2017 here states that the Southern Ocean, which occupies a massive 14% of the world’s surface, plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation — and thus climate — and found that it has produced a cooling trend since 1979.

Cooling since 1999

Also Oliva et al., 2017 points out that a recent analysis by Turner et al., 2016 has shown that “the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014“. Oliva et al tell us that “this recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula], including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and layer of permafrost in northern AP islands“.

Fernandoy et al., 2017 here also points out:

The firn stable isotope composition reveals that the near–surface temperature at the Antarctic Peninsula shows a decreasing trend (−0.33 °C y−1) between 2008 and 2014.”

“No evidence” of snow decline

Finally, moving on land to the Tibetan Plateau, a recent paper appearing in Nature by Wang et al. 2017 shows there’s been “no evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015“.

That’s 7 fresh papers telling us that large, important areas of the earth’s surface have stopped warming and begun cooling. Time is running out for the global warming hoaxsters.

Note: Recently desparate climate warming trolls have been appearing in force (trying to keep their sham alive). Serious comments are welcome, but trolling comments will be deleted.

2 New Papers: 92% Of Polar Bear Subpopulations Stable, Increasing…Inuit Observe ‘Too Many Polar Bears Now’

Inuit: Bears ‘Catch Seals Even If The Ice Is Really Thin’

Scientists: ‘Unlikely Polar Bears Are At Risk From AGW’

Image source: York et al., 2016, Journal of Ecology and Evolution.

Most of the world’s polar bears live in Canada.  Hunters and elders from northern Canada’s native communities have been immersed in studying polar bear ecology for centuries.

In two new peer-reviewed papers published in the journals Ecology and Evolution and Polar Record, scientists record the observations and experiences of Canada’s polar bear “experts” — the community members who live side-by-side with these “sea bears” (Ursus maritimus).

According to scientists, no study has indicated that there is reason to presume that the perspectives of community observers are either suspect or incorrect.  In fact, there have been multiple occasions when traditional ecological knowledge gleaned from local populations accurately identified polar bear subpopulation trends before new scientific studies could be conducted to corroborate them (York et al., 2016).

The overwhelming conclusion from years of accumulated conversations with native populations about polar bears is that there is almost no connection between the long-term observations of polar bear ecology and the more recent claims that polar bears as a species are in grave danger due to climate change and thinning sea ice.

In fact, the long-term observations suggest that polar bear subpopulations are currently faring quite well, with 92% of  the subpopulations studied either remaining stable or growing in recent years.

According to Inuit observers, there may even be “too many” bears now.

Furthermore, the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) gleaned from local populations affirms that polar bears do not need thickened sea ice to hunt seals, as they can “catch seals even if the ice is really thin” (Wong et al., 2017).

The recent observations of polar bears eating land-based food, or eating out of garbage bins, is not evidence that they are hungrier and more desperate due to climate change.  According to community observers, it is quite “typical” for polar bears to forage for land-based food (and garbage), as they are opportunists when it comes to food sources.   Polar bears have been consuming land-based food well before there was concern about thinning sea ice and climate change.

A bold conclusion from York et al. (2016) is that, given the paleoclimate record of much warmer (+4 to +7.5 °C) Arctic and much more reduced sea ice thickness and extent in the past relative to today, “it seems unlikely that polar bears (as a species) are at risk from anthropogenic global warming.”


York et al., 2016

Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives

on . . . Canadian polar bear subpopulations

Summary

“Considering both [observations from native populations] and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin).”

We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis.”

Observations From Natives (TEK) May Be More Reliable Than ‘Flawed’ Scientific Studies

1.  “We show that much of the scientific evidence indicating that some polar bear subpopulations are declining due to climate change-mediated sea ice reductions is likely flawed by poor mark–recapture (M-R) sampling and that the complex analysis models employed to overcome these capture issues apparently fail to provide accurate estimates of the demographic parameters used to determine subpopulation status.”

2.  “There is no trend evident from the summed subpopulation numbers from the PBSG status reports. Other indications of individual subpopulation decline are in conflict with aerial survey results, TEK [traditional ecological knowledge from native populations], or subject to sampling ambiguity, with the exception of the KB subpopulation.”

3.  “We hypothesize that when polar bear subpopulation trends are evaluated by both M-R sampling and TEK; notable differences are most likely due to errors in scientific methodology rather than mistaken TEK.”

4.  “We suggest that the difference between scientific and TEK in this case is partly caused by institutional (science establishment) reluctance to accept TEK as a valid test of correspondence between scientific predictions and observable reality (Aars et al. 2006; Resolution # 1-2005). … We did not find evidence for intentional misrepresentation of polar bear subpopulation numbers or trends from TEK, aboriginal organizations, or co-management wildlife boards. The TEK we report for Canadian polar bear subpopulation trends was a consensus from all of the sources cited above, which we believe to be a comprehensive list of available sources on the TEK for polar bear subpopulation trends.”

5.  “Scientific studies have not always agreed with TEK on subpopulation trend (e.g., NB, SB, SH, and WH), but these studies have never provided any reasons to suspect that the available TEK was suspect or incorrect. Alternatively, we are aware of multiple occasions when TEK accurately identified polar bear subpopulation trends before new scientific studies had been conducted that corroborated the TEK (S6).”

Polar Bears Survived During Much Warmer Climates And With Much Less Sea Ice

 6.  “The majority of Canada’s polar bears inhabit the Canadian Arctic archipelago (Obbard et al. 2010), where 5 of 13 subpopulations are currently and historically ice-free in late summer and early fall (Lunn et al. 2002; Aars et al. 2006; Obbard et al. 2010).”

7.  “If polar bears have existed for the last 4 million years, they would have emerged during the mid-Pliocene approximately 1.25 million years before the onset of northern hemisphere glacial cycles (Bartoli et al. 2005). If polar bears emerged any time prior to or during the previous glacial cycle, they would have persisted through the Eemian interglacial period. During the Eemian interglacial, mean annual temperatures were 4°C warmer than the current interglacial (Holocene) for northern latitudes (Müller 2009), and some northern locations reached temperatures as high as ~7.5°C warmer than the mean temperature for the same area over the last thousand years (Dahl-Jensen et al. 2013).”

8.  “Given the persistence of polar bears through the current and previous interglacial periods, and their ability to accommodate extended retreats onshore and based on the empirical observations of climate and sea ice change (S7), it seems unlikely that polar bears (as a species) are at risk from anthropogenic global warming.”

9.  “Reduction in the heavy multiyear ice and increased productivity from a longer open water season may even enhance polar bear habitat in some areas (Stirling and Derocher 1993, 2012; Derocher et al. 2004; Rode et al. 2014).”


Wong et al., 2017

Inuit perspectives of polar bear research:

Lessons for community-based collaborations

Scientists/Academics Treat Native Populations (Inuit) Condescendingly

1. “From May 2011 to April 2014 over four visits, we conducted individual interviews with 23 hunters and 33 elders (48 men and eight women) comprising 32 active, 14 non-active and nine less experienced hunters.”

2. Strong and transparent relationships between polar bear researchers and Inuit communities are necessary to overcome persisting research (and community) misconceptions.”

3. “In the past, academics have been criticised for prescribing expected research plans and outcomes in a rigid way, leading to condescending views of unfamiliar knowledge practices and unwelcoming interactions with community members (Grimwood and others 2012).  … For community members, most types of research have been viewed as inseparable from government agendas through funding and consulting programmes (Bocking 2007) and past histories and power relations have politicised views of scientific research as a whole (Reed and McIlveen 2006).”

Inuit Observations: ‘Too Many Polar Bears Now’

4. All [Inuit] participants reported having more bear encounters in recent years than in the past. Some participants indicated that the bears they have encountered are healthy.”

5. Inuit observations of polar bear ecology:

“Last year he said that there’s more bears that are more fat … they rarely see unhealthy bears … the only time they would see one is when it’s pretty old … it won’t hunt—hunt as much … and it’s skinny. (AB9)  … Our elders, they say, they migrate, into other area… for years, and then they come back … that’s what we’re experiencing now … back in early 80s, and mid 90s, there were hardly any bearsthere’s too many polar bears now. (AR16) Bears can catch seals even—even if the—if the ice is really thin … they’re great hunters those bears … they’re really smart … they know how to survive”

Inuit: Polar Bears Eating Land-Based Food Is ‘Typical’ — Not Related To Sea Ice Changes

6. “Though dietary changes have been attributed to sea ice changes limiting access to primary prey (ringed and harp seal; Thiemann and others 2008a), evidence for bears foraging on land-based foods (Dyck and Romberg 2007; Rockwell and Gormezano 2009; Gormezano and Rockwell 2013a) – reported as typical behaviour by most participants here – might also suggest an opportunistic feeding strategy (Thiemann and others 2008a).”

7. “This suggests that bears pursue readily available food sources even in the presence of preferred ones (Gormezano and Rockwell 2013b).  Bears foraging for land-based foods have been reported in the literature prior to recent concerns over climate change (Russell 1975; Derocher and others 1993; Gormezano and Rockwell 2013a).”

8. “Observations of bears consuming garbage are not uncommon (Russell 1975; Lunn and Stirling 1985; Gormezano and Rockwell 2013b)”

Energiewende “Fundamentally A Disaster” …Germany To Miss CO2 Reduction Targets By A Mile

The latest forecast shows snow and cold moving across much Germany this weekend, again. Despite Germany ‘s ruddy CO2 emissions, winter keeps coming.

German public broadcasting, here for example, reports today that despite all the green, climate-preaching, Germany will miss its 2020 CO2 reductions by a mile. More embarrassingly, the country has not reduced its CO2 equivalent emissions in 9 years when 2017 is counted in the statistics.

2017 Co2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions are are projected to be at about 906 million tonnes this year (2017). Data taken from German Ministry of Environment.

The online site of German NTV public televisions reports that the results of a study by the Prognos Institute tell us that not only is the country going to miss its 40% CO2 reduction target compared to 1990, but that also “energy efficiency is significantly below the expected development requirements of the energy concept“. In fact energy efficiency has worsened over 2016, NTV writes.

Although Germany is a country that likes to preach to countries about their obligations and responsibility to boost green energies and cut back on “dirty” fossil fuels, it itself has failed miserably to make any progress of its own.

NTV adds:

The German government has fell way short of all its major targets when it comes to the Energiewende.”

High costs with no results

The NTV later continues:

Regardless of subsidies in the triple digit billions for the expansion of renewable energies, the emissions of climate-damaging carbon dioxide have not decreased as planned, but rather have stagnated since 2014.

Actually CO2 equivalent emissions in Germany have been stagnant for 9 years now, as mentioned above.

“Fundamentally a disaster”

Germany’s EEG feed-in surcharges are currently costing more than 24 billion euros annually, according to the German Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (Water and Energy Management).

In terms of what the citizens are getting for their money, the Union of Bavarian Economy President Alfred Gaffal has called it “fundamentally a disaster“.

Media Climate Alarmism Has Become “Primitive”… “Intellectually Subterranean”, German Scientists Say

Recent SRF German public broadcasting commentary on climate change has reached a new low in quality and new high in activism, two respected German scientists say.
=============================================

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

“Climate-alarm propaganda day”

November 29, 2017, was once again a climate alarm propaganda day in the German public television and radio stations of SRF (Süddeutsche Rundfunk). But it was even more shocking to see the primitive level of argumentation used there to fan fear among the public. For example this video clip here, designed to refute climate skeptics, unfortunately in fact represents an intellectually subterannean SRF alarmism theater, which uses arguments as a “hammer against skeptics”.

1) Shrinking mountain glaciers
Bingo. Yet no one is challenging that it has been getting warmer since the end of the Little Ice Age beginning in 1850. But why was nothing said about how the melting glaciers of today are uncovering tree trunks from even warmer periods of the Holocene and that as a result the glaciers back then were at much higher elevations and smaller in size than they are today?

2) Climate change was not invented by the Chinese
OMG! – just recently – and was that meant for real?

3) There has been no climate change pause
However the diagram ends at the peak of the last El Nino of 2016. The decrease in temperature since then and the term El Nino are not mentioned at all in the explanation.

4) The polar bears are doing just fine
…but they are really not doing okay because of the supposedly melting ice. The chart shown interestingly looks only at a few areas where the numbers are expected to fall, and ignores the fact that the populations have developed normally or well over the recent years, despite the reduced ice coverage.

5) Skeptical scientists are only 12% environmental scientists
…who according to the SRF are the only ones who should speak up publicly on the matter, and only 0.1% are climate scientists. More than 90% however are convinced climate alarmists. Missing here is only the famous 97% from Cook et al. Here we suspect that the word got around even at SRF studios that the magical 97 percent figure is a merely senseless bogus number…

The manipulative character of the agitation is demonstrated by the fact that the most important arguments held by climate skeptics find no mention whatsoever, for example the fluctuating long-term solar activity in combination with the amplification mechansim as to Svensmark, the oscillating ocean currents on decadal scales , the obviously hyped CO2 climate sensitivity in the IPCC models, the refuted water vapor feedback and – last but not least – the inability by the CO2 alarmists to successfully model the strong natural variations of the Holocene climate.

Whistleblower Scientists: PSMSL Data-Adjusters Are Manufacturing Sea Level Rise Where None Exists

‘Adjustments’ To Create Spurious Sea Level Rise

Have Now Infected The PSMSL Tide Gauge Data


In a new paper published in Earth Systems and Environment this month, Australian scientists Dr. Albert Parker and Dr. Clifford Ollier uncover evidence that Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) overseers appear to have been engaging in the “highly questionable” and “suspicious” practice of adjusting historical tide gauge data to show recent accelerated sea level rise where no such acceleration (or rise) exists.

Extensive evidence from “tide gauges, coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation” all suggest that sea levels in the Indian Ocean have effectively been stable in recent decades.

The authors expose how PSMSL  data-adjusters make it appear that stable sea levels can be rendered to look like they are nonetheless rising at an accelerated pace.

The data-adjusters take misaligned and incomplete sea level data from tide gauges that show no sea level rise (or even a falling trend).  Then, they subjectively and arbitrarily cobble them together, or realign them.   In each case assessed, PSMSL data-adjusters lower the earlier misaligned rates and raise the more recent measurements.  By doing so, they concoct a new linearly-rising trend.

This adjustment of tide gauge data to yield a rising sea level trend where none exists is not occasional or episodic.  Instead, for every adjustment of raw data analyzed, “the adjustments are always in the direction to produce a large rise in sea level.”

The suspicious perpetuity of this pattern strongly suggests that there is an agenda driving these arbitrary and subjective realignments.

From all appearances, the data-adjusters at PSMSL are attempting to “correct” the sea level rise data that do not support the conceptualization of a rapidly-rising sea level trend in response to rising human CO2 emissions.

As Drs. Parker and Ollier conclude: “It is always highly questionable to shift data collected in the far past without any proven new supporting material.”

Apparently not even tide gauge measurements can be spared from those who tendentiously fiddle with raw data to satisfy an agenda.


Parker and Ollier, 2017

‘Multiple Lines Of Evidence’ Affirm Sea Levels Are Stable In The Indian Ocean

The tide gauge result of Aden is perfectly consistent not only with the tide gauge results for Karachi and Mumbai. It is also consistent with the multiple lines of evidence, tide gauges, coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation, for a stable sea level of about zero mm/year experienced over the last 50 years in all the key sites of the Indian Ocean (Mörner 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015a, b, 2016a, b).
Contrary to the adjusted data from tide gauges and the unreliable satellite altimeter data, properly examined data from tide gauges and other sources such as coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation indicate a lack of any alarming sea-level rise in recent decades for all the Indian Ocean.
The new alignment of the data 1878–1936 and 1937–1994 seems by far superior to the one proposed by PSMSL. The aligned metric data 1878–1994 show a trend of − 0.05 mm/year, i.e., nearly perfect stability.

Stable Sea Levels Are Transformed Into Positive Trends Via Arbitrary Adjustments To Past Data

What is proposed as a single record in databases such as the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is often the composition of data collected by different instruments, sometimes in different locations or over different time windows, with significant gaps in between one measurement and the others.  … While adjustments are certainly necessary to produce a tide gauge record that may be analysed to infer a trend of the local relative sea level, the way that the alignment is performed may introduce rising or decreasing trends even where the true sea level is oscillating without any trend. How can we perform a proper alignment of data when there are gaps of years and the tide gauge has been moved, destroyed, or replaced?

This is the case of the Aden, Yemen tide gauge that is the only tidal location of the Arabian Peninsula spanning a time window long enough to infer a trend and acceleration of the relative sea level (assuming there was continuous measurement and no quality issue). In Aden, similar to Karachi and Mumbai and other tide gauges of the area, a single-tide gauge record is the result of multiple sets of data subjectively coupled together. While a new tide gauge is recording since about 2007, the alignment of the previous data is continuously changing.
The sea levels in India, including Mumbai, and in Karachi, Pakistan, have been recently analysed and discussed in Parker and Ollier (2015) and in Parker (2016). In both cases, it was shown that the latest positive trends in the PSMSL RLR [revised local reference, adjusted] data are only the result of arbitrary alignments, and alternative and more legitimate alignments reveal very stable sea-level conditions.
The metric (raw) data show misaligned results. The metric data are the data as originally provided, or suffering from historical adjustments. What are more dangerous are the corrections recently introduced to the past to magnify the sea-level trend or the acceleration. As shown in the prior section, the adjustments introduced by PSMSL to make the RLR [revised local reference, or adjusted data] are arbitrary in Aden, Karachi, and Mumbai.
It is always highly questionable to shift data collected in the far past without any proven new supporting material. In the case of Aden, we analyse the PSMSL alignments starting from the unaligned metric data, introducing possible break-points when there has been a change of tide gauge or there has been a suspicious alignment, and enforcing break-point alignment when connecting sets of data spanning sufficiently long-time windows.
While the metric data do not tell us, which is the correct trend, they tell us that the alignments made to produce the RLR [revised local reference, or adjusted data] are very likely wrong, because they are inconsistent with the individual measurements components, none of which showing any sign of increasing sea levels, and because the adjustments are always in the direction to produce a large rise in sea level.

Examples Of Stable/Negative Sea Level Trends Re-aligned To Create Positive Trends

Realignments of past data and addition of new data possibly misaligned have, therefore, increased the trend to + 3.02 mm/year from + 1.21 mm/year.
Differences with prior studies in the literature based on data sets not available any more are even more striking.  Pirazzoli (1986) noticed that the record for Mumbai between 1952 and 1962 reversed the entire rising trend for the previous 30 years.  Per Douglas (1991), the sea-level trend in Mumbai over the time window 1930–1980 was negative, − 0.3 mm/yearIn the latest PSMSL RLR, over the same time window, it is + 0.52 mm/year.
The RLR data for Aden, Yemen, show that the misaligned measurements have been composed to produce a high trend, high acceleration record. After the latest PSMSL corrections and addition to generate the RLR data, there is a trend of + 1.28 mm/year and a large acceleration of + 0.0164 mm/year2 in the 134 years long but 50% complete tide gauge record.
Within the short time window 1937–1969, the trend has been increased to + 2.60 mm/year from the + 1.89 mm/year of the previously misaligned data. One would have expected the data 1937–1956 to be shifted up vs. the data 1957–1969. The adjustment has done just the opposite, and the data are being shifted down. Similarly, the data before 1937 have all been shifted down. The data collected since 2007 have not been moved vs. the data collected 1957–1969.
Notice especially that the data 1878–1936 are closed by the December month, and the data 1937–1994 start with the January month, so there is virtually no time gap, yet there is a 677-mm sudden difference between the measurements collected before and after the so-called break-point. From the raw data, Mumbai exhibits a very small rate of rise since 2005. If we look at the metric raw data, we may notice that the trend 1878–1936 is a + 0.60 mm/year, while the trend 1937–1995 is largely negative, − 0.72 mm/year. Combining the two trends, one would expect over the longer time window 1878–1936 a small negative trend.
In the RLR data, the small negative trend 1878–1995 is transformed [into] a + 0.68 mm/year positive trend, that with the latest data 2005–2011 further increases to + 0.80 mm/year.
Karachi seems to suffer from the same issues as Aden, with four misaligned sets of data: 1916–1920; 1937–1948; 1957–1995; 2007–2014.  These data show individually very little rise, and a lowering in the longest continuous record. Then, the RLR has a large trend introduced by arbitrary alignment. The metric trend 1957–1995 is negative, − 2.67 mm/year. In the RLR, the trend 1916–2014 is now + 1.85 mm/year. This is the result of the measurements 1916–1920 having been shifted down, the data 1937–1948 shifted down vs. 1957–1995, and the data from the novel tide gauge relocated in another place claimed to be aligned with the old tide gauge.

7 Major Signs The Globe’s Surface Has Been Cooling, And Will Continue To Cool

By now, after some 30 years of dire warnings, you’d think that the warming of the globe and ice mass reduction would be much further along than it actually is. Yet there are a number of major signs that show the opposite (cooling and freezing) are happening:

1. Arctic ice has stabilized over the past decade

Tony Heller at realclimatescience.com here reports that Arctic sea ice volume is in fact up 15%, from 13,000 km³ to 15,000 km³ and that there has been a huge expansion of thick ice into the East Siberian Sea. The following is Heller’s comparator showing the difference between today and 10 years ago:

2007     2017

Obviously over the past 10 years Arctic sea ice was supposed to do the opposite, i.e. shrink 15%. Climate scientists, who warned the melting of the 2000s would accelerate, are now left baffled and speechless.

2. Equatorial Pacific La Nina will usher in cooling

The EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a measure of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, is at its coldest level in years, boding that more global cooling lies ahead for the planet in the months ahead. Just months ago, experts were predicting another warming El Nino. They were wrong. Moreover, the latest forecast sees La Nina conditions extending into next spring:

3. Rapid Pacific surface cool down:

Surface temperatures at the equatorial Pacific (where it really counts) have plummeted by 1-2°C since June of this year, hurricane expert Phillip Klotbach tweeted recently:

And because there is a lag of about 6 months between the ocean surface temperature and satellite global lower troposphere temperatures, the La Nina will ensure that 2018 will be a cooler year at the surface globally.

4. Siberia sees unusual November cold

Moving to Siberia, we see that an unexpected cold gripped the region, with temperatures in many parts of Siberia recently plummeting 20°F below normal. The Weather Channel reports here: “Parts of Siberia are Colder Than Minus 60 Degrees Fahrenheit, and It’s Only November“.

Forecasters are now warning that this cold could soon shift over to North America and Europe.

5. Greenland’s ice mass budget continues to surprise

Greenland, often claimed by climate alarmists to be the “canary in the coal mine”, has seen its ice sheet gain 250 billion metric tonnes since September 1, 2017. This is 40 billion tonnes above the 1981-2010 average.

Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1981-2010 is shown (dark grey). More here: DMI.

Warming is not supposed to create 40 billion tonnes of ice. That’s almost 6 tonnes for each person on the planet.

6. Northern Hemisphere fall snow and ice cover rising

Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover for the month of October finished 20% above the mean. In fact the mean of the past 5 years for October has been the highest for any 5-year period since measurements began 50 years ago.

Source: Rutgers University Global Snow Laboratory (GSL)

The same is true for the month of November: it too has seen a robust upward trend in snow and ice cover over the past 30 years.

7. Solar activity near 200-year low

In the current solar cycle 24 sunspot activity is now at the lowest level in almost 200 years. In the early 1800s the Earth found itself in the grips of the Dalton Minimum, a cold period with similarly low solar activity:

The accumulated sunspot anomaly from the mean of the previous 23 cycles – 107 months into the cycle.

The current solar cycle 24 is the third weakest since the systematic observation of solar cycle activity began in 1755. Only solar cycles nos. 5 and 6 (1798…1823 during the Dalton Minimum) were weaker. A number of distinguished scientists and dozens of scientific publications warn that the planet may in fact be entering a period of global cooling. The upcoming solar cycle 25 also is expected to be a weak one.

Major eruption of Agung?

In summary, there are other signs showing cooling taking place or coming up; above is just a sampling. Let’s not forget the possible eruption of Agung in Indonesia. A major eruption would send global temps into the fridge for a couple of years.

The bottom line: Don’t let all the hype about runaway warming make you think the planet is roasting. There’s plenty of unexpected cold around – cold that was never supposed to be. And the only thing you’re going to hear from the alarmists to explain this are a lot of excuses.

Germany’s National Power Grid Mess…Country Seeing Whopping 172,000 Power Outages Annually!

Germany’s Energiewende threatens to follow a similar path as the Berlin-Brandenburg airport debacle, but on a far greater scale. When bureaucrats take over project engineering...

Berlin-Brandenburg BER airport: Construction began in 2006 with operation scheduled to begin in 2011. And now as 2017 nears the end, BER is not even close to opening. Currently it is well over 2000 days behind schedule. Massive technical deficiencies with the airport’s safety systems plague the entire project, and now it is questionable whether the airport will even open in 2021.

Bureaucrat run airport-project turns into national embarrassment

BER’s original estimated price tage was 2.5 billion euros, but since then the costs have ballooned to 6.6 billion euros today. Worse: billions more are expected, nobody knows when the project will be completed, and there’s even talk the project might be abandoned altogether! It is undoubtedly the country’s greatest construction and engineering debacle so far this century. The joke today: It would be cheaper to move the entire city of Berlin to another airport then to sort through the catastrophe that is the BER airport.

What happened? Ideological bureaucrats took over project engineering

At the early design and construction stages, the project was run by Berlin’s socialist-green bureaucrats – who thought they could handle it better than real builders. These bureaucrats unfortunately failed to adequately involve the necessary technical and engineering experts during the crucial early stages and the result was a plan that was so flawed that today it looks more like an animal begging to be put out of its misery.

Naturally their airport concept and plans sailed through the approval process and construction started in earnest. But before long it was discovered that the BER design was fraught with technical and safety deficiencies, and it’s opening has been pushed back every year since 2011. The truth is that no one knows how to resolve the huge flaws.

BER is a classic case of what can happen if the right people are not running the job and ideology takes over.

Energiewende: a potential folly 200 times greater than BER

As hard as it may be to believe, a similar German-made engineering catastrophe but of far greater dimensions looms: the revamping of the country’s electricity supply infrastructure so that it is “green” – the so-called “Energiewende“. Like BER, the Energiewende too was managed by bureaucrats, who in the wake of the Fukushima disaster ordered Germany’s top power generation experts at the country’s leading power companies to stand back and keep silent as the country fast-tracked from nuclear and fossil fuel power over to clean, green energies.

Merkel government decides to run the power industry

The rush decision was made by Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU party. Power engineering experts were not invited on the board commissioned to launch it and thus they had no input or say on the matter. The politicians were warned of the risks of flooding the existing grid with unstable energy, but they obstinately brushed the warnings aside and went full throttle into the Energiewende. They believed they knew better.

Today, some 6 years later, the Energiewende is looking a lot like the BER debacle: an engineering embarrassment and looming catastrophe. The major grid infrastructure revamping is still decades off and the power grid already frequent teeters on the brink of collapse. While BER is the airport without adequate fire and safety systems, Germany’s Energiewende is the nation’s power supply without a proper grid. In both cases the costs are spiraling out of control and no one knows if it’s ever going to work at all. It is wild experimentation, and not engineering.

172,000 outages last year

To illustrate how far along the road to disaster Germany’s once impeccably stable grid has come, the online hessenschau.de here reports that for the second time in a just few days the central city of Wiesbaden has seen its power black out. It writes:

On Saturday evening in parts of Wiesbaden the power went out for 2 hours. […]. It is the second power outage within just a few days.”

Over the past years the German state of Hesse has been plagued by power outages, Hessen public television (HR) reported here, as it pondered why Hesse has become so prone to blackouts. HR cites the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Grid Agency), which says there are over 172,000 power outages annually, which is some 470 daily, and that last winter multiple power plants had to be switched simultaneously because “the German grid was on the brink of collapse.”

Volatile wind and sun

Prof. Peter Birkner blames the volatile supply of green energies: “The wind does not ask what we want, what we consume, and just blows as it wills” and that “the power grid is not designed for it“.

While the BER debacle has cost over 6 billion euros so far, the Energiewende has already committed close to 200 times that amount of money: over 1 trillion euros!

According to Frankfurt’s Fire Department spokesman Andreas Mohn, the city’s 27 mobile power generators would not be able to handle a power outage and citizens would have to “fend for themselves“:

That starts with a few candles, food, water and maybe a possibility of something for heating, a gas cooker or something.”

Government information pamphlet on what to do in the event of a blackout

Little wonder that in 2015 the BBK – Germany’s version of FEMA – released a pamphlet advising citizens on how to proceed in the event of power outages.

State media has “diesel generators” on stand-by

Even German HR public television has taken precautions against power outages and has “large diesel generators on hand in the event of a blackout” which would switch on within 14 seconds.

According to Hesse HR public broadcasting:

Short periods of time would be bridged over by thousands of batteries. Then diesel would take over. With over 40,000 liters in the tank, HR would be able to broadcast completely on its own for up to two weeks”.

It’s nice to hear that public funded German broadcasting would keep warm and running in a blackout. The citizens, on the other hand, would be left out in the cold. This is the utopia that green bureaucrats are bringing to Germany.

Other countries should think twice before heading down this path of folly.

2 More New Papers Affirm There Is More Arctic Ice Coverage Today Than During The 1400s

 A Shrinking Anthropogenic Signal

 Continues To Emerge In The Arctic


Earlier this year, Stein et al., 2017 published a reconstruction of Arctic sea ice variations throughout the Holocene that appeared to establish that there is more Arctic sea ice now than for nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

The study region, the Chukchi Sea, was deemed representative of most of the Arctic, as the authors asserted that “the increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon as PIP25-based sea ice records from the Fram Strait, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea  display a generally quite similar evolution, all coinciding with the decrease in solar radiation.”

The proxy data used to reconstruct Arctic-wide sea ice variations over the Holocene (PIP25) clearly show that modern sea ice extent has only modestly retreated relative to the heights reached during the Little Ice Age (the 17th and 18th centuries),  and that the from about 1400 A.D.on through the rest of the 10,000-year-long Holocene, Arctic sea ice extent was much lower than it is today.


In 2014, Dr. Qinghua Ding and colleagues published a consequential paper in the journal Nature contending that much of the warming trend in the Arctic since 1979 can be traced to “unforced natural variability” rather than anthropogenic forcing.

A substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”

Then, a few months ago, Dr. Ding and co-authors published another Nature paper (Ding et al., 2017) that extended  a natural attribution to trends in Arctic sea ice variability, concluding that as much as half of the decline in Arctic sea ice since 1979 is due to internal (natural) factors, further undermining the position that anthropogenic forcing dominates Arctic sea ice changes.

Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979.”

Within the last month, two more papers have been published that further affirm the conclusion that modern Arctic sea ice extent has not changed significantly relative to even the last few centuries, nor has it fallen outside the range of natural variability.

1. Like Stein et al. (2017), Yamamoto et al., 2017 largely attribute Holocene sea ice concentration variations to solar forcing, and they assemble a reconstruction of sea ice trends for the region that once again clearly shows sea ice coverage is greater now than it has been for almost all of the Holocene.

“Millennial to multi-centennial variability in the quartz / feldspar ratio (the BG [Beaufort Gyre] circulation) is consistent with fluctuations in solar irradiance, suggesting that solar activity affected the BG [Beaufort Gyre] strength on these timescales. … The intensified BSI [Bering Strait in-flow] was associated with decrease in sea-ice concentrations and increase in marine production, as indicated by biomarker concentrations, suggesting a major influence of the BSI on sea-ice and biological conditions in the Chukchi Sea. Multi-century to millennial fluctuations, presumably controlled by solar activity, were also identified in a proxy-based BSI record characterized by the highest age resolution. … Proxy records consistent with solar forcing were reported from a number of paleoclimatic archives, such as Chinese stalagmites (Hu et al., 2008), Yukon lake sediments (Anderson et al., 2005), and ice cores (Fisher et al., 2008), as well as marine sediments in the northwestern Pacific (Sagawa et al., 2014) and the Chukchi Sea (Stein et al., 2017).”


2. In another new paper, Moffa-Sánchez and Hall, 2017  analyze subpolar temperature changes, glacier advances and declines, and sea ice variations in the Labrador Sea, North Atlantic, North Iceland, Alaska, Swedish Lapland, and Northwestern Europe region.

“Paleoceanographic reconstructions from a more northward location of the polar front on the North Iceland margin show centennial-scale cold events and marked increases in sea ice with similar timing to the cold events recorded in the eastern Labrador Sea.  … The records from the northernmost sites show a linear cooling trend perhaps driven by the Neoglacial decrease in summer insolation in the northern high latitudes and its effects on Arctic sea ice production. “
“Periods of increased influence of polar waters in the eastern Labrador Sea, reduced LSW  [Labrador Sea Water] formation and weaker subpolar gyre largely coincide with well-established cold periods recorded in glacier advances, tree-ring and pollen records in the circum-North Atlantic and northwest Europe [Dark Ages Cold Period, Little Ice Age]. … Conversely, periods of reduced influence of polar waters in the eastern Labrador Sea, stronger subpolar gyre and increase LSW [Labrador Sea Water] formation largely coincide with mild/warm periods in Europe namely the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climatic Anomaly.”

The authors find that while Arctic sea ice coverage was more advanced during the Little Ice Age, sea ice concentrations in the waters north of Iceland were far lower than now from about 500 years ago onward, especially during the centuries encompassing the Medieval Warm Period (or Medieval Climate Anomaly) and Roman Warm Period.


Glacier advance and retreat for the Alaska and Swedish Lapland regions also followed the climate trends associated with the Little Ice Age, Medieval Climate Anomaly, Dark Ages Cold Period, and Roman Warm Period.   During the earlier warm periods and for most of the last 3,000 years, glacier recession was more pronounced than it is now.


Moffa-Sánchez and Hall (2017) also report that sea surface temperatures north of Iceland were much warmer in the past than they are now.


Finally, the 10-150 m layer of the Labrador Sea  has also not undergone any net warming trend in the last 75 years.

Moffa-Sánchez and Hall, 2017   (supplemental)


It has become increasingly apparent that there is nothing unusual or unprecedented about the amplitude of modern sea ice retreat and advance, glacier retreat and advance, and overall temperature changes in the Arctic and subpolar Arctic regions.

The lack of any definitive distinction between modern climate dynamics and “natural” changes that occurred in the past significantly compromises the detection of an anthropogenic signal.

German Public Media Finally Acknowledge Country’s Power Grid Now More Unstable Than Ever

It seems that the woes besetting the German Energiewende (transition the green energies) and the country’s power grids are finally beginning to hit home at the mainstream German media.

For example German HR public radio here writes “increasingly large problems have besieged power grid operator Tennet” and that the company often “has to act at lightning speed to prevent blackouts“. That illustrates just how unstable Germany’s power grid has gotten since the Energiewende started in earnest some 15 years ago.

During windy and stormy conditions, the Tennet operated power grid often cannot accept wind energy, and thus control center workers have to force the wind parks to shut down to avert overloading the grid. And conventional gas and coal plant must always be on standby and ready to spring into action at a minute’s notice should wind and sun drop off, as is often the case on cloudy and windless days.

“More than 1000 interventions a year”

Whenever the grid threatens to fly out of control, Tennet grid operators need to move fast and intervene. Years ago before the wind and solar energy were fed in to the grid in significant volumes, operators intervened to avert a black out maybe “up to five times per year“.  But today “we are up to 1000 – 1500 interventions per year,” says Volker Weinreich, Director of the Hanover grid control center.

The HR reports further: “The Energiewende means more and more work for the men and women at the control center in Hanover.” And they “must always be alert.” According to Weinreich, the grid “no longer functions without the daily interventions by these employees“.

And according to HR, the situation will stay that way for many years, which is how long it is expected to take to revamp the grid enough to handle the instability. In the meantime, control center workers will have to keep up their full court press to prevent the Tennet-operated power grid from blacking out.

Swiss “Climate Ethicist” Prof: Flying Okay “If Mother On Deathbed…Or For Going To Climate Conferences”!

Today we bring you the climate wackiness of the week.

At Swiss SRF public broadcasting, Yves Bossart recently interviewed philosopher and ethicist Dominic Roser of the Institute for Ethics and Human Rights of the University of Fribourg. Roser is also the author of the book “Ethics of Climate Change“.

Photo right: Dominic Roser, University of Fribourg

In the interview Roser tells the SRF that whenever people fly, they are in fact “killing humans of the future“, and thus there is a moral obligation to abstain from flying. He says:

A single holiday flight can warm up the climate more than driving a car and heating a home with heating oil for an entire year.”

When asked if he himself flies, Roser says he does all he can to avoid taking holiday trips, because he is aware that “flying kills“.

When asked to explain what he means by that, he tells the SRF, citing an estimate from John Nolt:

People of the future generations die through our flights. To put it bluntly, the jetliner in which I sit is like a rocket that is aimed at future humans.”

Yet, Roser does admit that flying is sometimes unavoidable and morally permissible in some special cases:

But sometimes one has to fly, for example if your mother is dying far away, or when I as a politician have to go to a climate conference.”

But luckily for such cases, Roser says, there’s the opportunity to offset the carbon emissions. He then pointedly rejects the notion suggested by the SRF that this is the “sale of indulgences”.

Globalism is the solution!

Later in the interview Roser comes out in support of a CO2 tax for flights, and then states that the only hope to solve the “huge challenges of climate change” is “to elect politicians who look beyond borders and think globally.”

So if you now think academia is really in dire need of reform, then put your mind at ease because you are not alone. Many will agree that there is certainly better thinking and intellect available out there than what Swiss universities are offering for our tax money today.

 

Before 1960s-’70s Global Cooling Was Erased, It Caused Droughts, Crop Failures, Glacier Advance, Ice Age Threats

Changing Scientific Consensus

1970s: Global Cooling A Serious Threat

Today: Global Cooling Never Happened

Until the mid-1980s, it was widely accepted in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that there was an abrupt global cooling trend between the 1940s and 1970s.

The amplitude of the climate change amounted to more than -0.5°C of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, as documented by NASA (1981).

Hansen et al., 1981 (NASA)     “[T]he temperature in the Northern Hemisphere decreased by about 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970, a time of rapid CO2 buildup.  …  Northern latitudes warmed ~ 0.8°C between the 1880’s and 1940, then cooled – 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970.”

For the globe as a whole, the warming between the late 19th century and 1940 reached an amplitude of about +0.6°C, but a cooling trend of -0.3°C during the decades after the 1940s pulled temperatures more than halfway back to the 1880s.

Benton, 1970     “In the period from 1880 to 1940, the mean temperature of the earth increased about 0.6°C; from 1940 to 1970, it decreased by 0.3-0.4°C.”
Cimorelli and House, 1974     “[B]etween 1880 and 1940 a net warming of about 0.6°C occurred, and from 1940 to the present our globe experienced a net cooling of 0.3°C.”

Between 1958 and 1963 alone, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1975) cited an analysis of about 200,000 measured temperatures that said the Northern Hemisphere’s temperatures plummeted by -0.6°C (Starr and Oort, 1973, introductory graph above).   The NAS also concluded that a “serious worldwide cooling” has a “finite probability” to befall the Earth within the next century, or by about 2075.

National Academy of Sciences, 1975     “Starr and Oort (1973) have reported that, during the period 1958-1963, the hemisphere’s (mass-weighted) mean temperature decreased by about 0.6 °C. …   Since the 1940’s, mean temperatures have declined and are now nearly halfway back to the 1880 levels. … There seems little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate … [T]here is a finite probability that a serious worldwide cooling could befall the earth within the next hundred years. …  [A]s each 100 years passes, we have perhaps a 5 percent greater chance of encountering its [the next glacial’s] onset.”

NOAA (1974) also agreed that Northern Hemisphere temperatures declined by about -0.5°C after 1940, but additionally pointed out that a new ice age may be approaching, with scientists linking the 1970s-era droughts and crop failures and ice expansion to the ongoing global cooling.

NOAA, 1974    “Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world. … Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes.”
“[T]he average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries. … Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in India—indeed, through much of Asia, the world’s hungriest continent. … Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an ‘ice age’.”

A decades-long cooling trend during the modern era is not convenient for those who advocate for the position that humans control the temperatures of the oceans and atmosphere by burning more or less fossil fuels, or by emitting more or less CO2.

So, instead of allowing the original temperature data showing +0.8°C  warming and -0.5°C cooling (Northern Hemisphere) to remain, overseers of temperature data sets decided to gradually remove several tenths of a degree from the warming and cooling amplitudes.

Now, instead of +0.8°C  of  Northern Hemisphere warming between the 1880s and 1940, it’s about +0.3°C.   Instead of -0.5°C of cooling between the 1940 and 1970, it’s been changed to about -0.1°CAbout half a degree of temperature change was removed from both trends.

Image Source: NASA

Instead of -0.3°C of global cooling between about 1940 and 1970, NOAA now shows a pause occurred.  The global cooling has been removed.

Image Source: NOAA

The problem with attempting to erase hemispheric- and global-scale cooling temperature trends is that extensive scientific records of the “serious threat” of global cooling still exists.

What follows is an abbreviated (93 papers out of over 300) compilation of the hundreds of scientific publications documenting concerns pertaining to the 1960s and 1970s global cooling and Ice Age scare.

Unlike illustrative graphs of hemispheric and global temperatures, this evidence is not so easily erased by anthropogenic global warming advocates.


1. Kukla, 1972     “A new glacial insolation regime, expected to last 8000 years, began just recently. Mean global temperatures may eventually drop about 1°C in the next hundred years.”
2. NOAA, 1974    “Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world. … Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes. … [T]he average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries. … Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in Indiaindeed, through much of Asia, the world’s hungriest continent. … Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an ‘ice age’.”
 3. Cimorelli and House, 1974     “[B]etween 1880 and 1940 a net warming of about 0.6°C occurred, and from 1940 to the present our globe experienced a net cooling of 0.3°C. … [I]t has since been found that the rate of temperature increase decreases with increasing CO2 … [A]n increase in man-made global particulates by a factor of 4.0 will initiate an ice-age. In order that we safeguard ourselves and future generations from a self-imposed ice-age it is necessary that we effectively monitor global concentrations of particulate matter.”
4. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency,1974 (1)     “According to Dr. Hubert Lamb–an outstanding British climatologist–22 out of 27 forecasting methods he examined predicted a cooling trend through the remainder of this century.  … A number of meteorological experts are thinking in terms of a return to a climate like that of the 19th century. This would mean that within a relatively few years (probably less than two decades, assuming the cooling trend began in the 1960’s) there would be brought belts of excess and deficit rainfall in the middle-latitudes; more frequent failure of the monsoons that dominate the Indian sub-continent, south China and western Africa; shorter growing seasons for Canada, northern Russia and north China.  Europe could expect to be cooler and wetter. … [I]n periods when climate change [cooling] is underway, violent weather — unseasonal frosts, warm spells, large storms, floods, etc.–is thought to be more common.”
5. Ellsaesser, 1975    “In recent years there have appeared a rash of papers claiming an upward trend in airborne particulates, which is presumed to have already reversed the alleged CO2 induced heating of the atmosphere observed between the 1880’s and 1940’s and to pose the further threat of inducing another ice age. Allusions to the trend have become so common that many authors now cite it as an accepted reality requiring neither qualification nor attribution by reference.”
6. Agee, 1980     Evidence has been presented and discussed to show a cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere since around 1940, amounting to over 0.5°C.  [T]he mean annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere increased about 1°C from 1880 to about 1940 and then cooled about 0.5°C by around 1960. Subsequently, overall cooling has continued (as already referenced) such that the mean annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere is now approaching values comparable to that in the 1880s.”
7. Benton, 1970     “In the period from 1880 to 1940, the mean temperature of the earth increased about 0.6°C; from 1940 to 1970, it decreased by 0.3-0.4°C. Locally, temperature changes as large as 3-4°C per decade have been recorded, especially in sub-polar regions.  … The drop in the earth’s temperature since 1940 has been paralleled by a substantial increase in natural volcanism. The effect of such volcanic activity is probably greater than the effect of manmade pollutants.”
8. National Academy of Sciences, 1975     “Starr and Oort (1973) have reported that, during the period 1958-1963, the hemisphere’s (mass-weighted) mean temperature decreased by about 0.6 °C. …   Since the 1940’s, mean temperatures have declined and are now nearly halfway back to the 1880 levels. … There seems little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate … [T]here is a finite probability that a serious worldwide cooling could befall the earth within the next hundred years. …  [A]s each 100 years passes, we have perhaps a 5 percent greater chance of encountering its [the next glacial’s] onset.
9. Hare, 1971     “[M]ost recent years of hemispheric surface temperatures (Mitchell, 1970) show rises of about 0.6C over the 0-80N belt between 1880 and 1940, followed by a subsequent decline to current temperatures about 0.3C above 1880. … It is clear, however, that sound meteorological estimates of the troposphere and surface warming to be expected from this increase [in CO2] (e.g., Manabe and Wetherland, 1967) do not account for the observed temperatures variations. The rise between 1880 and 1940 was much greater than the computed carbon dioxide effect, and since 1940 temperatures have actually fallen as the rise in [CO2] mixing ratio accelerated.”
10. Gribbin, 1975     “A recent flurry of papers has provided further evidence for the belief that the Earth is cooling. There now seems to be little doubt that changes over the past few years are more than a minor statistical fluctuation. … The observed cooling corresponds to a re-establishment of the ‘Little Ice Age’ which persisted for several hundred years up to the end of the nineteenth century”
11. Ellsaesser , 1974      “The 1968 AAAS Symposium on Global Effects of Environmental Pollution initiated a flood of papers supporting monotonically if not exponentially increasing pollution. The particulate increases were usually cited as at least contributing to the post 1940 cooling and possibly capable of bringing on another ice age. … Since 1945 there has been a cooling trend and we are now nearly back down to the averages of the early 19th century.”
12. Flohn, 1974     “Since about 1945 [to 1974], global cooling, on a scale of -0.01°C/yr [-0.3°C total], has reversed the warming trend of the first decades of our century. … A large majority of the participants of the symposium concluded that the present warm epoch has reached its final phase […]–the natural end of this interglacial epoch is undoubtedly near’.”
13. Stewart and Glantz, 1985 (full paper)     “One could effectively argue that in the early 1970s the prevailing view was that the earth was moving toward a new ice age. Many articles appeared in the scientific literature as well as in the popular press speculating about the impact on agriculture of a 1-2°C cooling.  … The causes of global climate change remain in dispute. Existing theories of climate, atmospheric models, and actuarial experience are inadequate to meet the needs of policymakers for information about future climate.”
14. Curry, 1969     At least four major periods of increased mean snowfall and cooler, cloudier summers during the last 10,000 years resulted in four periods of multiple glacial advance in the Sierra Nevada. These occurred (1) between 6000 and 7000 years ago, (2) between 2000 and 2600 years ago, (3) around 1000 years ago, and (4) between 650 years ago and the present.”   [By including the last 650 years to the present, the authors strongly imply that the present 1960s-era climate had not sufficiently warmed enough to be distinguished from the post-1400 AD Little Ice Age.]
15. Denton and Karlén, 1977     “Here, the ages of Little Ice Age moraines suggest fluctuating glacier expansion between ad 1500 and the early 20th century. Much of the 20th century has experienced glacier recession, but probably it would be premature to declare the Little Ice Age over.”
16. Denton and Karlén, 1973     “Viewed as a whole, therefore, the Holocene experienced alternating intervals of glacier expansion and contraction that probably were superimposed on the broad climatic trends recognized in pollen profiles and deep-sea cores. Expansion intervals lasted up to 900 yr and contraction intervals up to 1750 yr. … Should this pattern continue to repeat itself, the [ongoing, current] Little Ice Age will be succeeded within the next few centuries by a long interval of milder climates similar to those of the Roman Empire and Middle Ages. … Holocene glacier and climatic fluctuations, because of their close correlation with short-term C14 variations, were caused by varying solar activity.”
17. Potter et al., 1981      “Sagan et al. have suggested that the cumulative impact of anthropogenic albedo changes may have contributed to global climate changes [cooling] in the past and that its effect may be continuing. … While the model computed a surface cooling of 0.6 K for the Northern Hemisphere, the global mean of ~0.2 K was substantially less than the 1 K [of anthropogenic global cooling] suggested by Sagan et al.”
18. Brinkmann, 1979          Concern about the impact of the recent downward trend in the average surface temperature for the ‘Northern Hemisphere’ (Reitan, 1974; Angell and Korshover, 1975) on the world food supply has led to an increasing interest in possible changes in the length of the growing season (NRC, 1976; NRC, 1977). … Increased variability has been proposed to be linked to hemispheric cooling […] would cause greater extremes in weather (Bryson, 1975; Lamb, 1975).”
19. Wright, 1972     The Holocene has already run a course of at least 10,000 yr. If it is like earlier interglacials, it will end soon, giving way to gradually developing cold conditions
20. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, 1974 (2)  The western world’s leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climate change.  The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era. A forecast by the University of Wisconsin projects that the earth’s climate is returning to that of the neo-boreal era (1600-1850) – an era of drought, famine, and political unrest in the western world [the Little Ice Age]. … The world is returning to the type of climate which has existed over the last 400 years.”
The climate change [global cooling] began in 1960, but no one including the climatologists recognized it. Crop failures in the Soviet Union and India during the first part of the sixties were attributed to the natural fluctuation of the weather [instead of global cooling]. … The six West African countries south of the Sahara…became the first victims of the climatic change [global cooling].  The failure of the African monsoon beginning in 1968 has driven those countries to the edge of economic and political ruin.  They are now effectively wards of the United Nations and depend on the United States for a majority of their food supply. … Later, in the 1970s, one nation after another experienced the impact of the climatic change [global cooling].  • Costa Rica and Honduras (1973) – worst drought in 50 years • United States (April 1973) -“flood of the century along the Great Lakes”  • Japan (1973) – cold spell seriously damaged crops Pakistan (March 1973) – Islam planned import of U.S. grain to off-set crop failure due to drought   • USSR (June 1974) – poor weather threatens to reduce grain yields in the USSR  • China (June 1974) – droughts and floods   • United States (July 1974) – heavy rain and droughts cause record loss to potential bumper crop
Because of the global cooling trend, the lower edge of the circumpolar vortex has in recent years stayed farther south during the summer […], blocking the monsoons out of regions where they are vital to the survival of hundreds of millions of people.  At the same time, the vortex’s semistationary wave patterns have altered, affecting rainfall patterns in temperate regions and making the climate more variable.  … [S]ome evidence exists that the cooling trend has affected wind patterns in the Southern Hemisphere as well, weather statistics are scanty. … Since the late 1960s, a number of foreboding climatic predictions has appeared in various climatic, meteorological, and geological periodicals … Early in the 1970s, a series of adverse climatic anomalies occurred:  • The world’s snow and ice cover had increased by at least 10 to 15 percent.  •  In the eastern Canadian area of the Arctic Greenland, below normal temperatures were recorded for 19 consecutive months. Nothing like this had happened in the last 100 years.  • The Moscow region suffered its worst drought in three to five hundred years.  • Drought occurred in Central America, the sub-Sahara, South Asia, China, and Australia.  • Massive floods took place in the midwestern United States … Within a single year, adversity had visited almost every nation on the globe.”
21. Robock, 1978     “Instrumental surface temperature records have been compiled for large portions of the globe for about the past 100 years (Mitchell, 1961; Budyko, 1969). They show that the Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperature has risen about 1°C from 1880 to about 1940 and has fallen about 0.5 °C since then  … Because the magnitudes of the effects are small, and may cancel, it cannot be concluded that these high correlations show that man has produced climate change.”
22. Magill, 1980     “Recent anomaloous weather conditions of the 1970s have revealed the possibility that significant aberrations in global climate have and are occurring with serious consequences. The 1970s have seen a generally overall greater variability and instability of global weather. … [A] general consensus that a major upheaval in climate is taking place. …There is no way of determining, however, whether or not the world is entering into another major ice age
23. Bryson and Wendland, 1975     “Since 1940, the effect of the rapid rise of atmospheric turbidity appears to have exceeded the effect of rising carbon dioxide, resulting in a rapid downward trend of temperature. There is no indication that these trends will be reversed, and there is some reason to believe that man-made pollution will have an increased effect in the future.”
24. Skeeter, 1985      “Numerous studies of global and hemispheric temperature trends have been undertaken in recent decades.  One  of the earliest studies was done by Willett in 1950. Willett analyzed temperature records of fifty years for 54 stations.  He found that global temperatures increased 1°F (0.6°C) between 1885 and 1940.  Winter temperatures during this same period were found to increase by 2.2°F (1.2°C). The most pronounced warming was in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.  This warming trend conformed with the temperature trend that climatologists had expected to exist due to the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  However, even though the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to rise, cooling temperatures have been reported since about 1940. The first study to report this reversal in temperature trends was done by Mitchell in 1961. Mitchell updated Willett’s work through the 1950s and found that temperatures had fallen 0.2°C by the late 1950s from a peak in the early 1940s.  In 1970, Mitchell stated that by the late 1960s global temperatures had fallen 0.3°C from the peak in the 1940s, approximately one-half of the prior rise.  Similarly, Budyko reported that temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere fell 0.3-0.4°C between 1940 and 1976.  Summaries by Schneider and Dickenson, Kalnicky, Robuck, Roberts, and Agee all report Northern Hemisphere temperatures declines by at least 0.5°C since the 1940s.”
25. Hoffert and Flannery, 1985     “[T]here is no clear indication of a monotonic warming over this period [1880-1980], as would be anticipated from the observed build up of CO2 in the atmosphere. … Indeed, the global temperatures seem to have increased from 1885- 1935, and the extent of Arctic sea ice decreased from 1925-1945. This was followed, however, by a leveling off and then a subsequent decrease in temperature. Although it is possible that the data sets are incomplete, these surface air temperatures do not appear to display the monotonic increase in global mean temperatures predicted by CO2-driven climate models.”
cooling-226. Schneider, 1974      In the last century it is possible to document an increase of about 0.6°C in the mean global temperature between 1880 and 1940 and a subsequent fall of temperature by about 0.3°C since 1940. In the polar regions north of 70° latitude the decrease in temperature in the past decade alone has been about 1°C, several times larger than the global average decrease. Up till now, past climatic changes (except possibly those of the last few decades [of cooling temperatures]) could hardly have been caused by man’s activities.  … Some scientists already feel that particles might be responsible for the recently observed decrease in the earth’s temperature”
27. Bradley and Miller, 1972     The climatic warming trend since the 1880s, which seems to have been global in extent and was manifested by an upward trend in mean annual (and particularly mean winter) temperatures, seems to have given way since the 1940s to a cooling trend, which is most marked in higher latitudes.”
28. Collis, 1975     “It is not clear how such favorable and relatively consistent conditions are related to the higher temperatures in this century or the peaking of temperatures around 1940. The reversal of this warming trend, however, could mark the beginning of a new ice age
29. Haber, 1974     “A meteorologist and Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, Dr. Bryson believes that the Earth is moving toward an inevitable climate change; the consequences, he says, are already being felt – tragically – in the drought-plagued belt of West Africa called the Sahel. The global climate will become cooler, Bryson predicts, the pattern of rainfall will change, and a southward movement of the subtropical deserts will take place. Since rainfall and climate affect crop growth, since crop growth affects food supply, and since food supply affects life itself, Bryson’s prediction may be of paramount importance to mankind.   The drought that has gripped West Africa since the late 1960s is just one reminder that climate cannot be taken for granted.”
30. Ghil, 1975    There has also been a concern about a possible climatic catastrophe [global cooling] being imminent because of the increase in the quantity of industrial pollutants in the atmosphere (Rasool and Schneider, 1971).”
31. Wahl, 1968     “A comparison of climatic data for the eastern United States from the 1830’s and 1840’s with the currently valid climatic normals indicates a distinctly cooler and, in some areas, wetter climate in the first half of the last century. The recently appearing trend to cooler conditions noticed here and elsewhere could be indicative of a return to the climatic character of those earlier years [1830s, 1840s] … frequently referred to as the ‘Little Ice Age’ (Brooks, 1951) apparently started during the middle of the 16th century at a time of glacial advances both in Europe and North America. … During the last two decades there appears to be some evidence that this warming trend of the last 100 yr. has changed over recently to a distinct new deterioration of the climate, leading to conditions that in the 1960’s appear to approach those which were generally found around the turn of the century or even earlier, i.e. a return to the climatic character of the 19th century … A downward trend of the mean temperature, especially in early fall, will tend to increase the likelihood of early frosts  […] and thus may require changes in agricultural practices.”
32. Eichenlaub, 1970     “[A] general cooling of winter temperatures may be partially responsible for this climatic change. [M]any of the snowfall time-series curves for the lake stations show downward trends during the 1920’s and 1930’s, at the height of the recent warm period, and the more recent snowfall increase has coincided with a general world-wide cooling which has occurred in the last several decades [1940s-1970s]. Recent evidence derived from [isotope] analysis of ice core samples on the Greenland ice cap indicates a continuance of this cooling trend for another 20 or 30 years [through the 1990s].”
33. Budyko, 1969     [A] rise in temperature that began at the end of the last century stopped in about 1940, and a fall in temperature started. The temperature in the northern hemisphere that increased in the warming period by about 0.6oC then decreased by the middle of the fifties by 0.2°C.
34. Hughs, 1970     “Convection in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Leading to a Surge of the Ice Sheet and Possibly to a New Ice Age  [A] surge of the ice sheet appears likely.”
35. Fletcher, 1970     “[F]rom about 1890 to 1940 the general but irregular trend was toward growing strength of the global atmospheric circulation […] reflected by a dramatic warming of the arctic and of the North Atlantic, and aridity in the south central parts of North America and Eurasia.  Conversely, recent decades have exhibited opposite trends: weakening planetary circulation, southward shifts of ice boundaries and cyclone paths and sharp cooling and different rainfall patterns over continents.”
36. Thompson, 1975     A cooling trend in the world’s climate would have serious effects in the monsoon belts depending on whether or not the recent changes in snow and ice cover in the polar regions were responsible for the droughts in Africa and the failure of the monsoons over South Asia. The cooling and shrinking of the atmosphere at the higher latitudes is believed to have brought the subtropical anticyclones nearer to the tropical rainbelt and have caused a shifting of the monsoon belt. The regions that would be most severely affected by a continuation of the cooling trend to the year 2000 would be the higher latitudes (above 50 degrees) where spring wheat is grown and the warm band below 30 degrees latitude where rice is the principal grain crop.”
37. Fletcher, 1968     “Since the ‘little ice age’ of 1650-1840, which climaxed the cooling trend from about 1300, a new warming trend predominated which seems to have reached a climax in the 1920’s, followed by cooling since about 1940, at first irregularly but then sharply since about 1960.  The periods of general warming were accompanied by increasing vigor of the westerly zonal circulation in both hemispheres, bringing a more maritime climate to the continents, more northerly cyclone tracks and a pronounced warming of the Arctic.  From 1890 to 1940 the mean thickness of Arctic pack ice decreased by more than 1/3rd (Ahlmann, 1945). Since about 1940 the reverse pattern has occurred, with weakened zonal circulation, greater development of blocking anticyclones over continents in winter, more variable and southerly cyclone paths, and a colder Arctic.”
38. Schneider, 1978     “In the short term (left) the temperature has risen by about 1/2 degree Celsius since the 1880s, and from the middle 1940s to the middle 1960s it dropped about 1/4 degree. What’s wrong with this picture is that there should be large error bars on it, because there are still vast regions of oceans not covered by thermometers.”
39. Sanchez and Kutzbach, 1974     “Departures of mean annual precipitation and temperature for the decade 1961–1970 from the 1931–1960 averages are illustrated on maps of the tropical and subtropical portions of the American continents. Certain features of midlatitude climatic anomalies appear to be associated with concurrent anomalies in the tropics. There is an apparent southward shift of circulation features in this longitudinal sector of both hemispheres. A review of selected literature on latitudinal climatic shifts and atmosphere-ocean interaction suggests some similarities between the patterns of climate in the 1960s and the climate of the Little Ice Age.”
40. Hansen et al., 1981 (NASA)     “The major difficulty in accepting this theory has been the absence of observed warming coincident with the historic CO2 increase. In fact, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere decreased by about 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970, a time of rapid CO2 buildup.  …  Northern latitudes warmed ~ 0.8°C between the 1880’s and 1940, then cooled – 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970, in agreement with other analyses.”
41. Moran and Morgan, 1977     In Wisconsin, the growing season became cooler and shorter from 1958 into the mid-1960s. These trends accompanied a pronounced drop in the mean annual tropospheric temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. Although Northern-Hemispheric—tropospheric temperatures continued to fall (albeit at a lesser rate) from the mid-1960s through 1973, the growing season in Wisconsin showed a general trend toward lengthening and warming. In view of concern over the potential impact of climatic variation upon agriculture, these observations point out the need for a detailed examination of the modes of translation of hemispheric—tropospheric temperature trends to climatic changes at ground level, and at smaller temporal and spatial scales.”
42. Gates, 1976     Recorded data show that from 1940 to the early 1970s the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere slowly decreased, with a net cooling of approximately 1°F [-0.55 °C] over the continents and less cooling over the oceans. We also know that during the period from about 1890 to 1940 the air over at least the continents of the Northern Hemisphere underwent a gradual warming of over 1.5°F [+0.83°C]. … Whether such fluctuations are primarily the result of man’s activities or are only natural climatic variations remains an open question.”
43. Andrews et al., 1972     Baffin Island is thus a critical area in which to monitor glaciologial and climatological changes. The processes that are involved may be taking the world toward the next full glaciation.  … Mean summer temperatures have declined throughout the 1960s to a level cooler than for approximately 40 yr.  … On a regional basis, winter precipitation has increased by more than 30% over the last 10 yr. Both the winter-warming trend and the increased precipitation are presumably related to a change in the frequency of southerly airflow types advecting warm moist air into the region. The net effect has been for heavier falls of snow in winter and with lower summer temperatures and therefore less melting (Jacobs et al, 1972), resulting in notably increased glacierization. … Recent field observations and comparisons with aerial photographs taken late in the ablation seasons of 1949 and 1960 provide verification of a recent climatic deterioration. … [A]t least two corries snowfree in 1960 are presently occupied by incipient glaciers. …  The present Neoglacial ice is nearly as extensive as the late glacial stade.”
44. Potter et al., 1975     Of the various mechanisms suggested by which man might change the planetary climate, the removal of tropical rain forests to increase arable acreage seems to be one of the more imminent. For this reason we selected this as one of the first problems to be tested in our recently updated climate model. Bearing in mind the fallibility of computer simulations, we find overall global cooling and a reduction in precipitation: a larger tropical reduction being almost balanced by a subtropical increase.”
45. Allen et al., 1976     In recent decades, however, a general cooling has been apparent in high latitudes. In northeast Greenland this appears to have been of the order of 0.3°C for the period 1940 to 1959
46. Ya-feng et al., 1978     “Since the fifties the decline of temperature and the increase of precipitation have been the predominant trend in the western part of China. According to the dendroclimatological data obtained from several places, the declining temperature trend will continue till the end of this century or the beginning of the next [late 1990s to early 2000s]. From this we predict that the number of advancing glaciers may increase considerably in the days to come. But the relation between the fluctuations of glaciers and the changes of climate is very complex. The law ruling the fluctuations of glaciers is still left to a considerable extent to the systematic study and observation of us all.”
47. Ložek, 1972     “The dwindling formation of tufa spring deposits and their partial destruction both in occupied and unoccupied areas indicate that the Holocene warm interval is in the late phase. The recent slope deposits are reminiscent of early glacial sections both by their lithology and fauna reflecting existence of large open spaces. Whereas in early glacials the deforestation resulted from the change of climate, the recent one is almost entirely a product of man.”
48. McCormick and Ludwig, 1967     “Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence indicate that atmospheric turbidity, a function of aerosol loading, is an important factor in the heat balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Turbidity increase over the past few decades may be primarily responsible for the decrease in worldwide air temperatures since the 1940’s
49. Mitchell, 1971     “Turning to the presumed effect of such large-scale background aerosol increases, a number of authors have called attention to the coincidence between these increases and a systematic decline of worldwide average temperature in the past two or three decades, and have considered the possibility of a causal connection between the two phenomena (McCormick and Ludwig, 1967; Bryson, 1968; Budyko, 1969; Bryson and Wendland, 1970; Mitchell, 1970).  … With particular regard to the recent cooling trend of worldwide climate, the attribution of this cooling (or any significant part of it) to secular increases in atmospheric particles from human activities now appears unlikely, not merely on quantitative grounds (see Mitchell, 1970) but on qualitative grounds as well.  Indeed, long-term increases of particulate pollution of the atmosphere by man may serve to augment, rather than oppose, other warming effects of human activities, such as the increasing carbon dioxide content and direct thermal pollution of the atmosphere.  In that event the observed climatic cooling of the past quarter century emerges more persuasively than ever as a natural geophysical phenomenon, with man the innocent bystander.”
50. Shultz and Hillerud, 1978     “Kukla and associates (1977) presented “new data on climatic trends” and showed that during the last 30 years in the Northern Hemisphere, the oscillatory cooling has not yet reversed. Shultz (1972) reported on the northern migration of the armadillos and other southern vertebrates into the Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska region of the Great Plains during the 1930’s to 1950’s.  Then there was a sudden reversal of the migration to the south during the 1960’s and 1970’s as cooling began to take place. … We now know that climatic changes may happen at a more rapid rate than we had thought, but much more research must be done before accurate long-range climatic forecasting can be accomplished.”
51. Kukla and Gavin, 1981     “Autumns in the Northern Hemisphere during the 1974–78 pentad were substantially cooler than in the pentad ending in 1938 [1934-’38].  Zonally averaged surface air temperature in October along latitude 80°N was 4.8°C lower, while summers were 0.6°C warmer. The recent pentad is cooler between 20 and 80°N in all seasons except spring when virtually no change was detected. The largest temperature difference was observed in autumn and winter in the high latitudes, which is a region of negative surface heat balance.”
52. Norwine, 1977     “Around 1900, a radically different climate stage set in, probably worldwide, one of warming (see Figure 1). … Well, all that was nice while it lasted, but a substantial cooling phase of deterioration has characterized the last 25 to 30 years
53. Reitan, 1974     “Mean monthly temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere were determined for the years 1955 through 1968 following the same procedures used by H. C. Willett and J. M. Mitchell, Jr., in their studies of long-term trends. It was found that the downward trend they reported starting in the 1940s continued, though interrupted, into the 1960s.”
54. Schneider and Dickinson, 1974     “Milder climate has returned in modern times, but the optimum (warmest) condition occurred in the 1940’s, and since then, there has been a fairly rapid cooling in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The relatively benign climate that we have taken for granted in the latter half of the twentieth century is not characteristic of all periods since the retreat of the ice age. … Climate-induced famine is even more serious today. Already, 6 consecutive years of drought have ravaged large populations in parts of central Africa known as the ‘Sahel.’ The drought has left millions of people near starvation, and the number of deaths approaches hundreds of thousands. There are hints that the situation may yet worsen (e.g., Winstanley, 1973; Bryson, 1973).”
55. Kukla and Kukla, 1972     “The new negative insolation regime, NIR 0/ + 8, will last for the next 8000 yr. Inasmuch within the last radiometrically dated 150,000 yr no NIR is known to correlate with generally warm interval, the prognosis is for a long-lasting global cooling more severe than any experienced hitherto by civilized mankind.”
56. Sancetta et al., 1972     “If the Eemian is taken as the analog of the present interglacial, a point in time 116,000 YBP becomes the historical model for today’s ocean, and the North Atlantic is now approaching a time of severe cooling.”
57. Bodhaine and Pueshel, 1973     “The effect of the atmospheric aerosol load on the earth’s climate has been of great concern during the past decade.  McCormick and Ludwig (1967), Bryson (1968) and Mitchell (1970) suggested an increase of particulate loading would lead to a decrease in incoming solar radiation that would, in turn, lead to a general cooling of the earth’s temperature as observed during the past 30 years. “
58. King and Willis, 1975     “Starr and Oort (1973) have made a comprehensive study of meteorological temperatures, using about 10 million individual measurements of temperature, to derive the average temperature of the bulk of the atmospheric mass in the northern hemisphere for each of the 60 months between May 1958 and April 1963. If the mean seasonal variation is subtracted from the monthly values to yield the residual temperatures, it is found that the spatially averaged temperature fell by about 0.60° C during the 5 years.”
59. Idso, 1982     “A potential negative feedback relationship between atmospheric relative humidity and surface air temperature is described. Together with a recently proposed negative feedback mechanism involving atmospheric CO2, the phenomenon may be sufficient to prevent the global ice catastrophies which are a common prediction of many climate models following initial development of ice age conditions, and could well be of importance for the problem of the cool sun in Earth’s early history.”
60. Karl et al., 1984     “An appreciable number of nonurban stations in the United States and Canada have been identified with statistically significant (at the 90% level) decreasing trends in the monthly mean diurnal temperature range between 1941–80.”
61. Chaston, 1980     “Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced a dramatic upsurge in snowfall during the 1970s as compared with the previoius decades. … Whether the “Snowy Seventies” heralded the dawn of a major cooling trend or is merely a temporary anomaly is highly debatable. One may ask fifty meteorologists for his/her opinion on climatic change and inevitably receive fifty differing opinions. This is why meteorology is so exciting: even with relatively advanced computer programs and the complete set of equations of motion of the atmosphere, we are far from truly understanding the mechanics of Mother Nature.”
62. Arrigo, 1982      The decade of 1971-80 was 1.5°F cooler than 1931-40. The latest 40-year period of general cooling in annual values is a result of down trends in winter, summer, and fall seasonal temperatures”
63. Lamb, 1966     The large-scale circulation of the atmosphere during the current decade […] seem to represent a recurrence of a regime that prevailed over long periods before 1895.  … [M]eteorology is being confronted with a demand for climatic forecasting for which no adequate scientific basis yet exists. Nevertheless, it is an urgent practical matter to take stock of the present climatic position and to assess the probability of the new climatic regime continuing –albeit subject to normal year-to-year and decade-to-decade variations. The investigation here reported of some of the gross features of world climatic behaviour since 1960 apparently discloses an abrupt return to conditions as they were before the well-known warming of climates in the early 20th century … On this evidence, something like the climatic regime of the years since 1960 [global cooling] should probably be expected to persist till the end of the century or beyond
64. Gordon, 1981       “Since about 1968/69 the glacier fronts have advanced by up to 158 m following a marked climatic recession [cooling] during the 1960s and early 1970s. In general, fluctuations of the glaciers have been in sympathy with prevailing climatic trends and show a relatively rapid response following temperature changes and a lagged response of at least 9 yr following precipitation changes.”
65. Starr and Oort, 1973     Between May 1958 and April 1963 the mean temperature of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere fell by about 0.60° C.  … Each monthly mean temperature is based on about 150,000 to 200,000 measured temperatures.”

66. Stockton and Boggess, 1979     “Van Loon and Williams (1976) suggest that regional trends in surface temperature are indeed connected with long wave circulation changes, that the greatest variations appear above 500 N. latitude, but that the changes may be compensated for in other regions. For example, during 1942-1972 there appears to have been a change of -1.4°C in the mean temperature above 600 N. latitude but this appears to have been offset by a +0.20°C change over the area between 300 N. to 300 S. latitude. Budyko and Asakura (in NAS, 1975) show that for the period 1880-1969, average temperature for the northern hemisphere attained a maximum around 1940 and decreased until 1969.”
67. Barry, 1977      “Cooling over the eastern Arctic in the summers of the 1960s was pronounced, leading to lower temperatures than for 30 to 40 years in Baffin Island. … [I]n the early 1970s there was evidence that snowbanks, identifiable on aerial photographs of the Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island, taken in 1959, had become much more extensive as a result of increased winter snowfall and reduced summer snowmelt. Although such growth may easily be reversed by a single warm summer, the pattern is suggestive of what may happen more persistently during a prolonged phase of climatic deterioration. The cooling observed over Baffin Island during the 1960s and early 1970s appears to be closely related to shifts in the standing waves in the hemispheric westerly circulation reported by Namias (1969, 1970). … Air reconnaissance data for the last two decades shows that between about 1963 and 1972 there was a significant increase in the severity of [sea] ice conditions for July through September in Baffin Bay (Dunbar, 1972). This apparently matches without any lag the cooling (up to 1972) in the eastern Canadian Arctic noted by Bradley and Miller (1972).”
68. Wahl and Lawson, 1970     “Lamb (1966) had already suggested that it appears likely that we have passed the height of the warming episode in the first half of this century and are now reverting to a pattern characterized by lower zonal flow and intensification of the trough/ridge systems, essentially a reestablishment of the climatic character of the last century.”
69. Thompson, 1977     “Recent theoretical studies (Pollack and others, 1976) and empirical evidence (Newell, 1970) indicated that variations in the concentration of particles in the atmosphere is an important component in the heat balance of the earth-atmosphere system.   Some investigators (McCormick and Ludwig, 1967; Bryson, 1968; Rasool and Schneider, 1971) attributed the decrease in mean air temperatures of the northern hemisphere since the 1940’s to an increase in the atmospheric aerosol load. … Mitchell (1975) found a correlation between an increase in the quantity of volcanically-injected stratospheric material and a decrease in mean temperatures in the northern hemisphere for the period since 1880 A.D.”
70. Absolon, 1972     “The present assemblages of Ostracods in Central Europe resemble the assemblages known from the earliest phases of Holocene. This observation supports the view that the termination of the present warm interval is to be expected in the near future.”
71. Lentfer, 1972     “Several authors have presented data indicating that sections of the Arctic have experienced warming trends prior to about 1950 and have experienced cooling trends since that time. … The mean ice thickness was one-third less and the mean air temperature 4°C higher in 1937-40 than in 1893-96. Dorf (1960) quotes Willett (1950) who states that in Spitsbergen mean winter temperatures have risen about 8°C between 1910 and 1950. Dorf (1960) also quotes Ahlmann (1953) who reports ice free ports in Spitsbergen to be open to navigation about 7 months of the year as compared with only 3 months 50 years earlier. Mitchell (1965) states that world climate during the past century has been characterized by a warming trend from the 1880’s to the 1940’s. Thereafter, the warming trend appears to have given way to a cooling trend that has continued to at least 1960 with some evidence that it was continuing in 1965.”
72. Palmer, 1973     “This article reviews the information on the climatic effect of carbon dioxide and aerosols and outlines man’s part in contributing to their occurence. Recent downward trends in the average surface temperature of the biosphere has lead some scientists to conclude that albedo increases due to the effect of aerosol backscatter is the causative mechanism. While there is evidence for and against this hypothesis, this paper emphasizes that albedo changes due to aerosol modification of cloud cover may be a more significant mechanism for explaining temperature trends.”
73. Angell and Korshover, 1977     Between 1958 and 1965 there was a significant cooling averaging about 0.3°C over much of the globe, but since 1965 the temperature variations have been small.”
74. Bryson and Ross, 1977     “The authors of this paper show, based on some examples from climatic history, that climate can change rapidly and that these changes can have drastic effects on world food production, as well as on other aspects of economic and cultural life. The historical examples are the Arctic expansions of around 1900 B.C. and A.D. 1200. The authors also describe a presently occurring Arctic [ice] expansion and its world-wide effects on climate to date.”
75. Newell, 1974     “Changes in the poleward energy flux by the atmosphere and ocean as a possible cause for ice ages … At present the ocean carries an appreciable fraction of the transport, for example about three-eighths at 30°N. In the cold mode it is suggested that the ocean carries less, and the atmosphere more, than at present.  The between the modes is seen as a natural imbalance in the atmosphere-ocean energy budget with a gradual warming of the ocean during an Ice Age eventually cluminating in its termination. At the present the imbalance is thought to correspond to a natural cooling of the ocean, which will lead to the next Ice Age.”
76. Wahl and Bryson, 1975     “Recent changes in Atlantic surface temperatures … a distinctive decrease of 0.56 °C from the 1951–55 period to the 1968–72 period

77. Gordon, 1980      “Recent climatic trends in the Arctic have been characterised by a general cooling between the mid-1950s and the late-1960s, followed by a return to warmer conditions in the early 1970s (refs 1,2). Throughout the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and at Thule in north-west Greenland a marked decrease in summer temperature occurred after 1963, and winter precipitation increased. These changes were accompanied by a lowering of the average July freezing level height by as much as 500 m, decreased glacier mass loss and increased glaciation. “

78. Williams, 1978     “It has been suggested that the Laurentide Ice Sheet originated with extensive perennial snow cover, and that the snow cover affected climate so as to aid ice-sheet development. In this study, a large increase in extent of October 1st snow cover in the Canadian Arctic from 1967–1970 to 1971–1975 is compared to changes in October means of other climate variables. Over the area of snow-cover expansion, mean surface air temperature decreased by up to 3°C, mean 500-mbar height was lowered by over 60 m, and precipitation was increased by up to a factor of two. These effects, if applied to the entire summer, together with the temperature change computed by Shaw and Donn for a Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minimum (the Milankovich effect), can account for glacierization of the Central Canadian Arctic.”
79. Barrett, 1971     “Changes in concentration of those atmospheric constituents which contribute to the planetary albedo can give rise to climatic alterations. … These computations show that substantial depletions of irradiance can result from moderate to heavy particulate loadings, and that an increase in man-made particulate emissions by a factor of 50 or more could give rise to a general cooling of serious magnitude.”
80. Mörner, 1972     When Will the Present Interglacial End? … We are now living under interglacial climatic conditions, the Present Interglacial of Flandrian Interglacial Age. It will certainly be followed by the Future Ice Age.  …  Several articles in this volume provide material strongly in favor of Alternative II of Fig 1.  This would mean we are now rapidly approaching a future situation equivalent to the “Pre-Brörup Stadial” characterized by continental glaciation over Fennoscandia and the Kolar Peninsula and tundra or park-tundra conditions in most of the rest of Europe (the”Pre-S. Pierre Stadial” of North America was similarly characterized by continental glaciation over northeastern North America and alpine glaciations in the mountain regions of the West Coast).”
81. Miles, 1978     “The cooling of the Northern Hemisphere since 1940 has been variously interpreted as the overture to the next Ice Age, the effect of industrial pollution in the atmosphere or of a decline in the solar output. Are we in a position to judge between these various interpretations and to make a prediction for the next few decades?”
82. Verma et al., 1984     “Dewey and Heim (1981) have studied variations in N.H. [Northern Hemisphere] seasonal snow cover based on satellite observations and have found that there was an overall increase in snow-cover area from 1966 to 1980. They also noted that there has been a trend toward earlier, more extensive snow cover in the fall and slower ablation in the spring.    Thus, during the last 3 decades, larger winter cooling anomalies, supported by observations and model studies, have greatly influenced the climate pattern – made it cooler and unstable.”
83. Borisov, 1969     Soviet climatologists are vitally concerned with the problem of ameliorating [warming up] the climate of Siberia and other northern lands as a means of developing these regions for an expanding population. P. M. Borisov, a candidate in geographic sciences, Moscow, examines one means of warming the climate by the transport of Atlantic Ocean water across the Arctic Basin. This could be done by pumping water out of the Arctic Ocean at the Bering Strait, thus accelerating the flow of warmer Atlantic water into the basin. Flow direction would be controlled by means of a dam across the Bering Strait. Borisov predicts dramatic improvement in Arctic climate would result.”  [Climatologists were concerned/interested in warming the climate via geoengineering in 1969.]
84. Flecher, 1969     “Since the “little ice age” of 1650-1840, which climaxed the cooling trend from about 1300, a new warming trend predominated which seems to have reached a climax in this century, followed by cooling since about 1940, at first irregularly but more sharply since about 1960.”
85. Battan, 1970     “This article give a brief review of Soviet articles on weather modification published since about 1964. … Budyko (1964) examined various questions dealing with climate modification. He noted that the melting of the arctic ice would have important effects on climate and stated that there are a number of ways by which the arctic ice cap can be annihilated. … When this happens, it is claimed, winters will become less severe, the growing season will be lengthened, the probability of early autumn and late spring frosts will be decreased, the number of arid years will be decreased and the northern boundary of many types of vegetation will be shifted northward.”   [Scientists proposing climate modifications (annihilating Arctic sea ice) to warm the planet.]
86. Hollin, 1969     “Wilson suggests that in the Pleistocene the surge coolings were sufficient to trigger the northern ice ages. If so, interglacial pollen profiles should show rapid but temporary marine transgressions beginning at the break of climate. Evidence suggesting such transgressions occurs in England and the United States, but is still insufficient to disprove explanations such as local downwarping. There is no evidence yet for surges in Wisconsin or Post-glacial time. There is some evidence that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently building up, but this could be a response to a Post-glacial accumulation increase rather than the prelude to a surge.”
87. Holdren and Ehrlich, 1971     Global Ecology: Readings toward a rational strategy for man [pgs. 76,77] … “It seems, however, that a competing effect has dominated the situation since 1940. This is the reduced transparency of the atmosphere to incoming light as a result of urban air pollution (smoke, aerosols), agricultural air pollution (dust), and volcanic ash. This screening phenomenon is said to be responsible for the present world cooling trend—a total of about .2°C in the world mean surface temperature over the past quarter century. This number seems small until it is realized that a decrease of only 4°C would probably be sufficient to start another ice age.  The effects of a new ice age on agriculture and the supportability of large human populations scarcely need elaboration here. Even more dramatic results are possible, however; for instance, a sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history.”
88. Kalnicky, 1974     The mean temperature for the Northern Hemisphere had a warming trend from 1890 to 1950 and a cooling trend since 1950. The eastern and central United States had colder temperatures in 1961–1970 than in 1931–1960.”
89. Kotlyakov, 1980     “His latest results (Kukla et al., 1977) indicate clearly a cooling of most of the Northern Hemisphere in the period from 1950 to 1975, reaching 0.1-0.2°C per decade (Fig. 3).”

90. Yamamoto et al., 1977     Fluctuations of the global climate have been one of the most interesting problems in meteorology. Recently the concern for this problem is increasing in relation to the possible climatic impact by man-made global air [aerosol] pollution. … By Willett’s method, Mitchell presented the trend of the global mean of the surface air temperature, which shows a warming from the decade of 1880 to that of 1940, and afterwards cooling.”

91. Kelly et al., 1982     “The 1880’s [in the Arctic] was the coolest decade during the study period, and was followed by a warming of 0.65°C to the 1900’s. Cooling then occurred; the average temperature during the 1910’s was ~0.45°C below the 1900’s. This cooling is less noticeable in the Northern Hemisphere average temperature d. Rapid warming affected the Arctic during the late 1910’s and 1920’s, with the average temperature peaking during the late 1930’s. A warming of ~1.60°C occurred between 1917 and 1921 [Arctic]. While the average temperature of the Arctic was at a maximum in the 1930’s, the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was greatest in the decade of the 1940’s. After the 1930’s, temperatures fell: a drop of 0.85°C occurred up to the 1960’s.”

92.  Mitchell, 1970     “Although changes of total atmospheric dust loading may possibly be sufficient to account for the observed 0.3°C-cooling of the earth since 1940, the human-derived contribution to these loading changes is inferred to have played a very minor role in the temperature decline.”
93. Eichenlaub, 1971     “Evidence derived from the carefully screened temperature record at Eau Claire, Mich., and from radiosonde data at Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., supports the conclusion of Wahl and Lawson that a return to the temperature and circulation features of the early and mid-19th century in the eastern United States may be underway.  … Definite cooling tendencies appeared in summer and winter, particularly during seasonal extreme months of July and January. Figure 2 shows 10-yr moving averages of monthly temperatures for June, July, and August. All 3 mo[nths] show temperature declines since the height of the recent climatic optimum during the 1930s.  July temperatures have decreased about 3.5°F since the decades beginning with the early 1930s, and August temperatures have decreased about 3°F since the decades beginning with the late 1930s and early 1940s.”

2017 Global Cyclone Energy Almost 20% Below Normal …Southern Hemisphere Near Record Low!

A look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s site here tells us a lot about how 2017 cyclone activity is doing as the Atlantic hurricane season winds down.

In September the Atlantic indeed saw some powerful hurricanes, such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, which led the media into a fit of Armageddon hysteria and calls to do something about climate change. It is true that the Atlantic saw an unusually active hurricane season, some 227% of what is normal in terms of energy, but the Atlantic is not the global situation.

Table showing 2017 accumulated cyclone energy for the 7 main basins globally. Source: Dr. Ryan Maue.

As the chart above shows, global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is currently running 19% below average and is only 73% of what it was at this time one year ago (2016).

This seems to fly in the face of all the warnings suggesting that global warming would intensify storm activity. Naturally 2017 is only one single year, and so it’s necessary to look at longer term trends.

Lowest levels since 1970s, frequency at a “historical low”

At his site Maue refers to an abstract of a paper: Geophys. Res. Lett. (2011) which tells us that cyclones don’t seem to be correlating with atmospheric CO2 at all:

In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.”

Looking at the last 25 years, since 1992, the following chart tells us ACE globally, for the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere have been trending significantly downward:

Downward cyclone trend over the past 25 years. Source: Dr. Ryan Maue.

Southern hemisphere near record low

Obviously there’s a lot more behind cyclones than CO2. So far the southern hemisphere is near a record low, running only at 44% of what is normal.

Spiegel Interviews Hansen: “Exit From Nuclear Power Huge Mistake For The World”

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski here interviewed James Hansen, the former director of NASA GISS and one of the most prominent warners of CO2 induced global warming.

Former NASA GISS director James Hansen calls exit from nuclear energy “a huge mistake”. Photo: NASA nasa.gov, (archived)

In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan earlier this decade, Germany, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, moved at lightning speed to shut down 8 of its 17 nuclear power plants nationwide. The remaining will be taken offline within a few years. Nuclear power has had a long tradition of being villified by Germany’s vociferous environmental movement and media.

But there’s one environmental activist who thinks the move was totally wrong: James Hansen.

Today German environmentalists are taking aim at the country’s coal power. But taking Germany’s coal-fired power plants offline would put the country in a serious energy dilemma as most of the steady base line power generation would disappear and the country’s power supply would be put at the mercy of wildly fluctuating green energies.

When asked by Spiegel whether Germany’s exit from nuclear power was a mistake, Hansen replies:

It is a huge mistake for the world. Most of the countries cannot afford to go without nuclear power.”

According to Hansen, highly developed and prosperous Germany likely will be able to get by without it, but “it is not credible to think that China and India will be able wean off fossil fuels rapidly enough without nuclear energy“.

More renewable energies “a joke”

Hansen in the interview plays down the risks posed by nuclear energy, believing that they can be reduced and that “nuclear energy would be the most environmentally friendly of all energy candidates that we know of.”

When asked by Spiegel if it would not be better to invest the money in renewable energies, Hansen scoffs at the question:

More renewable energies? You’re joking. The subsidies set aside for renewable energies are forcing consumers to pay higher rates – a sort of invisible tax. The power bill keeps rising, but the customer does not know why.”

Hansen also believes that the strict opposition to CO2-free nuclear energy by environmental groups is mainly driven their quest for donations. In the interview the former GISS head appears frustrated and concerned by the appointments of anti-nuclear activists to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission – by recent Democratic presidents – and is afraid our children will be disappointed over “how foolish we were and the mess we created.”

Warming Defied…Greenland Glacier Growth Over Past 5 Years… Polar Bears Leaving Early For Ice!

The Arctic is defying the alarmist melting predictions made by global warming activists and scientists. An Embarrassment!

First, Vencore Weather here writes that Greenland Summit Station “will experience high temperatures around -40°F which continues the very cold and well-below normal trend for the month of November“.

Moreover Vencore presents 2 NASA/MODIS satellite photos of Greenland’s Petermann Glacier during the past five years, which revealed growth of the glacier over the past 5 years: from a low point in August 2012 (left) to August 2017 (right):

Growth of Greenland's Petermann Glacier during the past five years as revealed by NASA/MODIS satellite imagery from a low point in August 2012 (left) to August 2017 (right)

NASA-MODIS satellite photos.

Vencore Weather reports:

In addition to the bitter cold, snow and ice accumulation throughout Greenland has been running at the high end of normal since the fall of 2016  – at times at or near record levels.”

This tells us the the dire warnings issued years ago of a melting Arctic have been in fact been met with contradictory developments.

Polar bear expert: one of the earliest Hudson Bay freezings

Meanwhile at Twitter here polar bear expert Dr. Susan Crockford recently tweeted:

CIS Hudson Bay and Eastern Arctic for week of November 20: still way more shore-bound ice than average for this point in the season, with an unusual patch of new ice in NW Hudson Bay (dark blue).”

Also at her Polar Bear Science site here, Crockford wrote that the West Hudson Bay freeze-up was “one of earliest since 1979.”

Crockford next cited polar bear guide Kelsey Eliasson, “on the ground near Churchill“, who “noted yesterday (12 November) that virtually all bears had already left for the ice (see first comment)“.

The following charts provided by Crockford show that the “freeze up day” has been at a constant level so far this century. The “ice break-up day” in the spring has also been consistent over the past two decades. Finally, the number of ice-free days has not been trending up over the past 20 years:

castro-de-la-guardia-et-al-derocher-2017-fig-3-no-caption

According to Crockford at Twitter here:

The average date left the ice in the 1980s (± 5 days) vs. 2004-2008, when they left 24 November ± 8 days. Virtually all bears on the ice now, which means freeze-up this year was one of the earliest since 1979.

Arctic warming and melting? Hasn’t been any over the past 10 years!

2 New Papers: Temperatures, Sea Levels, Climate Dynamics ‘Have No Apparent Relationship To Atmospheric CO2’

More Scientific Evidence For CO2’s

Dubious Climate Impact Emerges

Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017

According to the most basic precepts of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on sea surface temperatures, glaciers, sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e., precipitation patterns).

In particular, high CO2 concentrations, driven by human activity, are presumed to cause dangerously warming ocean waters, rapid glacier melt and sea level rise, and overall disruption to the Earth’s biosphere.

Newly published scientific papers wholly undermine this popularized conceptualization.

In fact, according to Bertrand et al. (2017), there has been a “marked cooling” of sea surface temperatures in the southernmost South America region during the last ~800 years — 3°C to 4°C colder than during the Medieval and Roman warm periods — that has continued unabated into “the most recent decades”.

Furthermore, abrupt glacier melt periods during Holocene warming events (as well as rapid glacier advances during Holocene cooling events) that easily exceed modern glacier morphology occurred in this region without any significant changes in CO2 concentrations.

To top it off, estimates of global sea levels during the last 4,000 years indicate that modern variability has been modest, at best.    Since 1900, sea levels have changed by less than 0.2 of a meter (IPCC, 2013).   During the Holocene, sea levels rose and fell by meters over a span of centuries.

In other words, the much higher CO2 concentrations that exist today relative to the last 10,500 years have effectively had no impact on sea surface temperatures, glacier melt, or sea levels.


Bertrand et al., 2017

During the last 4000 years, particularly low [sea surface temperature] values occur at 3500-3300 cal yr BP and during the most recent decades, and high values persisted between 2400 and 1600 cal yr BP.
[I]t is likely that the abrupt increases in SST around 3300-3200 and 2400-2200 cal yr BP participated in triggering the meltwater events at 3250-2700 and 2000-1200 cal yr BP, respectively.  … [O]ur sediment record clearly shows that CDI outlet glaciers melted rapidly at 3250-2700 and 2000-1200 cal yr BP, but re-advanced to calving locations relatively soon afterwards (Neoglacial III and IV).
 [T]he marked cooling of the last ~800 years may have very little to do with meltwater input and may rather represent the regional decrease in ocean temperatures during the last ~900 years (Caniupan et al., 2014).


Another new paper published by Oliveira et al. (2017) suggests that climate dynamics — precipitation, annual temperature, and forest cover changes — in the Mediterranean/Western Europe/North Atlantic region “have no apparent relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration”.  CO2 forcing is even characterized as “negligible” for this region.  Instead, climate dynamics are primarily induced by changes in solar activity.


Oliveira et al., 2017

[T]he millennial-scale vegetation changes in SW Iberia under warm interglacial climate conditions might be essentially generated by hydrological changes primarily induced by insolation [solar variability], as they are reproduced in the simulations despite the absence of ice sheet dynamics and all associated feedbacks in our experiments.
The transient simulations under the combined effect of insolation and CO2 indicate that the interglacial vegetation and climate dynamics over SW Iberia have no apparent relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration, as suggested by the pollen-based reconstructions. Although the direct impact of CO2 changes on the vegetation growth is not included in the model, a prominent example for this negligible CO2 forcing is given by its relatively high concentrations over the end of the interglacials, in particular for MIS 1 and MIS 11c, while the forest cover, annual temperature and annual precipitation achieved minimum values.
We find that the vegetation and climate changes at this time scale are mainly driven by astronomical forcing, in particular [solar] precession, in agreement with the strong impact of precession on the climate of the Mediterranean region south of 40°N.


The negligible impact of CO2 concentration variability on the Mediterranean/Western Europe/North Atlantic climate has also been documented by other scientists for recent decades.

According to models, the dramatic rise in human CO2 emissions after the 1940s should have had an discernible effect on climate.   And yet for this region, it has not.  Temperatures are no warmer now than they were in the mid-20th century despite this ostensibly strong human influence.


• The Spanish Pyrenees temperatures are colder today than they were in the 1950s.

Büntgen et al., 2017

Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate pre-industrial temperature changes. … [W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.


• The Iberian Range (Spain) is no warmer today than it was in the 1950s and 1960s…and much cooler than the 0-1300 A.D. period.

Tejedor et al., 2017

Abrantes et al., 2017

 


• The Mediterranean Sea is no warmer today than it was in the 1950s.

Zywiec et al., 2017


• The North Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures are cooler today than they were in the 1940s…and even the 1890s.

Kim et al., 2017


de Jong and de Steur, 2016


The Northeastern Atlantic’s ocean heat content was 0.5°C warmer than today during the 1500s to 1800s.

Rosenthal et al., 2017


To summarize, the abrupt increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the last few centuries has not had any discernible effect on climate parameters in southernmost South America or the Mediterranean/Western Europe/North Atlantic region.

The explosive increase has also not appeared to influence climate changes in regions spanning from Antarctica to Arctic Canada to China either.

Perhaps the most basic of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) precepts is due for reconsideration.


• The entirety of the Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last century.

Stenni et al., 2017

[N]o continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.


• The Canadian Arctic is 3°C colder today than the Mid-Holocene…with no warming in the last 150 years.

Fortin and Gajewski, 2016

Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.


• Modern temperatures are about 5-6°C colder than they were 6,000 to 8,000 years ago in Northeast China.

Zheng et al., 2017     

From 11.5 to 10.7 ka [11,500 to 10,700 years ago], corresponding to the Preboreal event, MAATpeat indicates even higher [temperature] values, from 7.0 to 12 °C. MAATpeat continued to vary during the Holocene. From 10.7 to 6.0 ka, temperatures rose stepwise, with 2 cool events at 10.6–10.2 and 8.6 ka, before reaching maximum values of ~11 °C during the early Holocene from 8.0 to 6.0 ka. Following the early Holocene, temperatures at Hani gradually decreased to values of ~5 °C, close to the observed temperature at Hani across the past 60 yr (4–7.5 °C)

 

Signs Show Planet Entering A New Dalton Minimum…Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Be Weakest In 200 Years!

Global surface temperatures have been falling steadily since the last El Nino, glacier melt has been decelerating rapidly and Arctic sea ice has been making a surprising recovery this year. Moreover, the equatorial Pacific has just entered a global cooling La Nina phase.

But there is another far more ominous, long-term sign that the planet is cooling, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse write: Signs show the earth is heading into a Dalton Minimum like the one the planet was forced to endure some 200 years ago.
===============================

The Sun in October 2017

By Frank Bosse und Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The (almost) sole provider of the Earth’s energy at the center of our solar system was once again well below normal in activity last month. The measured sunspot number (SSN) was on average only 13.2. Especially during the middle October trimester (from October 9 to October 20) the sun was almost spotless (11 of 12 days). Thus our sun saw a level of activity that was just 33% of what is normal for this month (no. 107) into the solar cycle.

Looking at the entire solar cycle, the current cycle is only 56% as active as the mean solar cycle (shown in blue below), which is calculated from the previous 23 solar cycles:

Figure 1: The current cycle is shown by the red curve and is compared to the mean curve (blue) and the similar solar cycle number 5 (black). Over the past year we observe that there has been a hiatus in solar activity with a mean SSN of about 25.

 

Comparison of all the cycles follows:

Fig. 2: The accumulated sunspot anomaly from the mean of the previous 23 cycles – 107 months into the cycle.

The current solar cycle 24 is the third weakest since the systematic observation of solar cycle activity began in 1755. Only solar cycles nos. 5 and 6 (1798…1823 during the Dalton Minimum) were weaker.

Now we would like to look into the future to solar cycle number 25, which is expected to begin around 2021. To do this we use the strength of the current polar field, which we reported on in greater detail in December 2016, also read here in English.

Entering a phase similar to the Dalton Minimum

The researchers at the Wilcox-Observatory of Stanford University were alerted to a impaired mirror that caused inaccurate readings. Since then the error has been resolved and we can now take another look at the data. The fields (the average of the northern and southern hemisphere values) were at 57 centi-Gauss (cG).

The previous solar cycle 23 (an indicator for sunspot activity for the current cycle) at the same point in time in the cycle was approx. 61 cG. In comparison: the quite normal solar cycle 23 (see Fig. .2) was indicated by a field of approx. 104 cG. Thus it is highly probably that also solar cycle 25 will be less active than normal like the current cycle is.

As a result we will experience a weak solar phase that is comparable to that of the Dalton Minimum. It is unlikely that we will experience an even weaker phase like that of the Maunder-Minimum, which occurred between 1650 and 1700.

 

High Profile Swiss Meteorologist Slams Stefan Rahmstorf: “The Holy Wrath Of The Righteous”

Some weeks ago I reported here on how Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, the alarmist director of the Potsdam Institute, appeared on a leading German talk show together with Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann and others to discuss climate change and the rash of storms that had hit the Atlantic and North Sea.

In the talk round Kachelmann (a warmist) poured plenty of cold water on the often used claim that hurricanes and storms have all gotten worse due to man-made global warming. Kachelmann told the audience that experts had evaluated the data from the German Weather Service and concluded “there has been no increase in frequency in these events“ and that the global data on tropical storms the American weather agencies found that up to now there has been “no increase in frequency”.

And when asked about the “monster hurricanes” which had hit the Caribbean and USA, Kachelmann commented:

Yes, this is an active season. But it is not a record season. It is not anything that has not happened before. When we look back at the last 50 or 60 years, we see no trend.”

That level of honesty got Kachelmann some international attention and it was simply too much for the über-caffeinated Stefan Rahmstorf — a Schellnhuber underling at the Potsdam Institute. At scilogs here Rahmstorf attacked Kachelmann as someone who didn’t know what he was talking about and that his statements were wrong. And in his typical overly disdainful fashion, Rahmstorf pretended to be the bearer of the Truth, and anyone else with a different opinion was wrong.

The Holy Wrath of the Righteous

Kachelmann in turn was somewhat taken aback by Rahmtorf’s petty nastiness at scilog, enough so that he felt compelled to sharply criticize the Potsdam scientist at his site. Here he commented that Rahmstorf’s abrasive approach was “not advancing anything” and that he was “caught up in his own special doggedness in attacking an ideological enemy” even though Kachelmann’s position on climate hardly differs from that of Rahmstorf.

“Holy Climate Inquisition”…”collective mouth-foaming”

Obviously what ticked off Rahmstorf was not so much that Kachelmann disagreed on the science, but that the Swiss meteorologist in fact rejected Rahmstorf’s religious convictions that global warming was causing today’s storms.

Kachelmann further commented on the Rahmstorf attack in blunt terms:

The Holy Climate Inquisition is thus making a huge error because the religious absoluteness with which the orthodoxy is peddled and the collective mouth-foaming that occurs whenever a crime of denial becomes known turns off many people who see it differently, or at least it appears quite strange to them.

Just how much climate has turned into a religion is shown by the tax-money financed revival seminars which provide the ammo to the courageous warriors in their fight against the lost souls of climate atheism. Anyone reading the text of the link that follows below. Invited here are TV meteorologists of the states who are to help in the missionary work to convert the man-eating hordes of deniers and skeptics. Please read through the text:

https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/k3-salzburg-eine-bilanz

Rahmstorf’s approach “couldn’t be dumber”

Kachelmann also thinks Rahmstorf’s rabid attack methods were way over the top, especially in light of the fact that Kachelmann admits to being in 95% agreement with the Rahmstorfs of the world. According to Kachelmann, “you couldn’t do it in a dumber way if you wanted to convince people of a correct and important matter“.

Through marginalization and religious exaltation of his own issues and the beating on people such as myself who are in fact on the ‘right’ side is only distracting us from the people who need to do something about it: the policymakers. But for them in the case of doubt they will always find coal and no speed limits on the autobahns more important – no matter who the direct official advisor to the federal government may be.”

New Paper: Rapid Glacier Melt DECELERATION For High Mountain Asia…Now Nearly IN BALANCE

Glacier Retreat Has Been

Slowing During 2000-2016

A new satellite-based estimate of glacier mass change for High Mountain Asia (HMA), the world’s third largest glacier conglomeration after Antarctica and Greenland, reveals a relatively modest retreat rate for the first 17 years of the 21st century.

The results from Brun et al. (2017) indicate that HMA glaciers are nearly in balance for 2000-2016, contributing the equivalent of just 0.046 millimeters per year to sea level rise during this period.  This is a glacier-melt contribution rate of less than half a centimeter per century, which is “much smaller” and “in marked disagreement” with other recent estimations.

Previous model-based estimates have generated HMA glacier melt and sea level equivalent values nearly 4 times greater (-46 Gt yr-1, +0.13 mm yr-1).  The new study’s authors attribute the discrepancy to the historical “sparse spatial sampling” and “lack of direct measurements”, or extrapolating data from limited coverage areas to represent much larger areas.

In this study, for example, glaciers in the Kunlun and Karakoram regions of HMA have been observed to be in balance or even gaining mass.  The model-based studies indicate significant mass losses are occurring in these regions.

The high estimates of HMA glacier melt and sea level rise contribution are preferred (and thus “widely used in the literature”) by those advancing the position that modern glacier melt rates are unusual or unprecedented.  This study makes a strong case that past and present high glacier-melt values in this region are unsupported by comprehensive analyses from satellite observations.


Brun et al., 2017

‘Much Smaller’ Asian Glacier Retreat For 2000-2016 

•“We provide spatially resolved estimates for the potential contribution of HMA [High Mountain Asia] glaciers to SLR [sea level rise] and changes in the downstream hydrology, aggregated by major river basins.  We find a total sea level contribution of -16.3 ± 3.5 Gt yr−1 (14.6 ± 3.1 Gt yr−1 when including only the exorheic basins), corresponding to 0.046 ± 0.009 mm yr−1 sea level equivalent (SLE) (0.041 ± 0.009 mm yr−1 SLE when including only the exorheic basins).”     [-16.3 Gt yr is equivalent to +0.046 mm yr, or adding only 0.46 of a centimeter to sea levels in 100 years.]
•“This estimate is in marked disagreement with the total estimate of −46 ± 15 Gt yr−1 from Cogley, 2009 and Marzeion et al., 2015 commonly used in the sea level budget studies.”

Model-Based Estimates Of Glacier Retreat ‘Four Times Larger’ Due To ‘Lack Of Direct Measurements’

•“The model contribution estimates of  Cogley, 2009 and Marzeion et al., 2015  for the period 2000–2013 are nearly four times larger than our estimate for Central Asia (22 Gt yr−1 for the model versus 6 Gt yr−1 for this study) and over twice as large for South Asia East and South Asia West (14 Gt yr−1 for the model versus 6 Gt yr−1 for this study, and 9 Gt yr−1 for the model versus 4 Gt yr−1 for this study for the two regions respectively.”
•“These discrepancies can be explained by the lack of direct measurements to constrain both the interpolation method of Cogley, 2009 and the model tuning and/or the high temporal smoothness of atmospheric models of Marzeion et al., 2015.”
•“In particular, these estimates [Cogley, 2009 and Marzeion et al., 2015] attribute mass losses to Karakoram and Kunlun, two regions with a large glacierized area where we find only little mass loss or even mass gain.”
•“Our new estimate of HMA [High Mountain Asia] glacier contribution to SLR [sea level rise] for 2000–2016 (0.041 ± 0.009 mm yr−1 SLE [sea level equivalent], when excluding endorheic basins) is slightly smaller than the values of Kääb et al., 2015  (0.06 ± 0.01 mm yr−1 SLE) and Gardner et al., 2013 (0.07 ± 0.03 mm yr−1 SLE), but much smaller than the model-based estimate of  Cogley, 2009 and Marzeion et al., 2015 (0.13 ± 0.05 mm yr−1 SLE), although the latter are widely used in the literature.”

Shrinking Estimates Of Non-Polar Glacier Mass Loss

In a highly-regarded mass balance analysis (to date, nearly 550 citations) published in the journal Nature, Jacob et al. (2012) record a stark trend reversal and rapid deceleration of glacier retreat in the 21st century for the globe’s glaciers and ice caps (excluding the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets).

A major reason why the glacier loss estimates have been shrinking in recent years is the effectively in-balance estimates for HMA glaciers, which “show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates“.

Considering aggregate estimates for non-polar glacier mass loss were 2 or 3 times greater  for the 1990s to early 2000s than in the more recent years, it would appear the trend reversal in glacier mass losses is more widespread than a few areas in High Mountain Asia.


IPCC, 2007 

“Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps is estimated to be 0.50 ± 0.18 mm yr–1 [-179 Gt yr-1] in sea level equivalent (SLE) between 1961 and 2004, and 0.77 ± 0.22 mm yr–1 SLE [-276 Gt yr-1] between 1991 and 2004.”

Cogley, 2009

“The small-glacier contribution to sea-level rise is now estimated at 1.12 ±0.14 mm yr–1 SLE (sea-level equivalent) for 2001–05 [-401 Gt yr-1], as against the 0.77 ± 0.15 mm a–1 SLE of Kaser and others (2006). These numbers exclude glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.”

Jacob et al., 2012

“Here we show that GICs [glaciers and ice caps], excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 ± 30 Gt yr−1 from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 ± 0.08 mm yr−1 to sea level rise.”
The high mountains of Asia, in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates (Matsuo and Heki, 2010, Dyurgerov, 2010).”