1 Holocaust Survivor Included…”Death List” Of 250 Leading German Vaccine/Lockdown Critics, Dissidents Gets Circulated

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Shocking threats in Germany…250 on a ‘death list’ are predominantly prominent German conservatives and libertarians, but also include Jews – among them one Holocaust survivor!

Origins appear to be “left-wing extremist circles”

Last Thursday, September 23, a “list of the 250 biggest German misanthropes” began circulating on the Internet and suggested their death  as a solution.

The list included critical writers, publicists, doctors, politicians and stars from several political parties who have criticized this or that measure of the Merkel government.

Penned by leftwing extremists?

According to Swiss publicist Roland Tichy, who is on the list, the only consistent common ground is that these people have expressed themselves critically on a variety of issues like immigration, green energies, COVID vaccines and lockdowns.

“Any criticism is dangerous,” says Tichy.

The list is reported to also include German actor Til Schweiger and pop superstar ‘Nena‘ and is suspected to “likely to have been penned by left-wing extremist circles, reports the Austrian exxpress.at. “The authorities are already investigating.”

ZDF’s Jan Böhmermann

Earlier, prominent German ZDF public television contributor Jan Böhmermann started such lists. Many of the names on the latest death list are from his lists.

“I have received several death threats. So far, I have not reacted to them, but I have reinforced doors, secured windows, changed my address,” writes Tichy at his site.

Böhmermann recently popularized the term “misanthrope” in a public discussion with late-night German talkshow host Markus Lanz to forcibly discredit critical positions and people and to exclude them from the discourse. Böhmermann, financed by mandatory public television fees imposed on citizens, introduced the creation of enemy lists, which especially include critics of lockdowns, medical segregation and the COVID vaccines.

“This shows how irresponsibly public television now deals with agitators and haters in their own ranks,” reports Tichy. Böhmermann of the ZDF even (jokingly) called for the murder of publicist Roger Köppel of the Zurich-based Weltwoche, a conservative publication.

“Tremendous brutalization”

“We cannot document the list and the text that goes with it, because we would possibly make ourselves liable to prosecution,” Tichy adds. “For me, it is an expression of the tremendous brutalization of the left-green milieu that dominates this country. I consider it an honor to be on this list.”

 Preemptive murder to save future lives?

Conservative Birgit Kelle, also on the list, tweeted an excerpt of the message accompanying the “death list” of the “250 greatest enemies of humanity”:

In the excerpt, the author asserts that the 250 people “are much more dangerous than any animal” and then goes on to wonder: “Would it really be a crime to eliminate 250 people in order to save tens of thousands?”

One Holocaust survivor on the list – left speechless

COVID lockdown critic and independent journalist Boris Reitschuster, also on the list, added a postscript at his site here:

PS: Andrea Drescher, daughter of Jewish concentration camp survivors, just wrote me about this article: ‘On the death list of evil Nazis, besides Henryk Broder and Elias Davidson, two Jews living in Germany, there is also Vera Sharav, a Jewish Holocaust survivor. So Jews are once again being threatened with death by Germans because they don’t fit a narrative. A detail that may have escaped you. Half my circle of acquaintances is on the list, about 100 I know personally. I don’t even know what to say to that anymore!”

Let’s hope that the German authorities rise above politics and do their jobs and root out the author(s) of this dangerous threat. Some parts of history don’t need repeating.




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La Nina: Globe Expected To Continue Cooling Into Next Year, Extending Cooling Streak To 7 Years

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Snowfan rreports here of how parts of western Germany have had 4 nights in a row of surface frost and how new models are even projecting snowfall already in mid October. If that occurred, it would be unusually early.

Globe cooling off

Overall the globe has cooled substantially since the last El Nino ended in 2016, and it now appears the cooling trend will persist another year as the CFSv2 is forecasting a La Niña to continue into spring 2022.

Source: NOAA/CFSv2-ENSO-prognosis

The latest NOAA/CFSv2 projection dated September 23, 2021, indicates La Niña-conditions over the Nino-region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific.

NOAA forecast from September 13, 2022.

“As a result, the globe will cool further well into the coming year as it has done since 2016. That will mean no warming like the German Greens like to claim for about 7 years,” reports Snowfan.




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New Reconstructions Show It Is Colder Now Than At Any Time In The Last 10,000 Years

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Scientists continue to find regions of the world where modern “global” warming has not occurred.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the South Atlantic (south of South Africa) and Southern Ocean (New Zealand) are colder today than they have been at any time in the last 12,500 years (Shuttleworth et al., 2021).

SSTs were multiple degrees warmer about 4,000 to 5,000 years ago, when CO2 concentrations were lingering near 265 ppm.

Image Source: Shuttleworth et al., 2021

At the opposite end of the world, scientists (Allan et al., 2021) have determined the “optimal thermal conditions” for southwestern Greenland were when summer sea surface temperatures averaged about 12°C from 9,000 to 5,500 years ago. This is substantially (6-7°C) warmer than modern summer temperatures (4.0-5.2°C) for this region.

Image Source: Allan et al., 2021
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Preposterous Projection By German Green Party Chancellor Candidate: 7 Meters Sea Level Rise By 2100!

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German Green Party chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock warn sea levels will rise 7 meters by the year 2100…

The German Greens, who weeks earlier surged to the No. 1 position in opinion polls, before falling back behind the socialists and conservatives, like to tell us that we have to follow the science when it comes to policymaking.

That wouldn’t be bad advice, were it not for all the absurd alarmist science out there.

Huge debate gaffe

One example of obscenely absurd junk alarmist science was witnessed during last Sunday evening’s televised debate in the run-up to the September 26 German national elections. Green Party chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock couldn’t resist the temptation of scaring voters to vote for her Green Party.

She told millions of viewers that global sea levels would rise 7 meters (way over 20 feet) by the year 2100 (unless they voted for her)!

Seven meters of course is far beyond even what the most alarmist experts, like Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute or the NOAA project.

Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock’s grossly absurd sea level rise projection compared to scenarios by the NOAA. Many scientists see a rise of only under 0.4 meters, which is a tiny fraction of Baerbock’s preposterous 7 meters.

Die kalte Sonne here comments on Baerbock’s ROTFLMAO claim made during the televised debate:

“The Greens, a party of science? We have deliberately refrained here from evaluating the three encounters between the candidates for chancellor and the candidate so far. We will make an exception for the last debate before the election. It is about a statement by Annalena Baerbock that the sea level will rise by 7 meters by 2100:

‘You are telling a child born today who is 80 years old in 2100, 7 meters of sea rise.’

She presumably means the rise in sea level; we  chalk it up to her word-finding disorder. Baerbock was apparently referring to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a university in Norway. The study has been circulating since May. It contains everything one might expect from PIK, namely many tipping points and lots of subjunctives.

Baerbock, however, took it at face value and not as a scenario, by the way, one that the IPCC in its latest report does not even provide for according to the most implausible scenario RCP 8.5. What a pity that the moderators do not prepare themselves for such a program and intervene immediately. Thus, many viewers will probably have already taken a look at the elevation maps of their place of residence, because Annalena Baerbock proclaims an outsider’s thesis as the new truth. It lies thereby however around the factor 7 over the already unrealistic prognosis of the IPCC. No matter, just go after votes with a little fear.”




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Shortening Northern Europe Summers…August Temperatures Have Been Cooling Since, JMA Data Suggest

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Late summers have been cooling across far northern Europe…September: Finland braces for one of its coldest this century, mercury drops to -6.4°C 

By Kirye
and Pierre

Last month we looked at July mean temperature data from the stations in northern Europe for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have enough data and found northern Europe (Norway, Sweden and Finland) had seen no mid summer warming in 20 years.

Now the JMA has the data for the same stations for August. Again the trends show late summer has been cooling, and not warming.

What follows are the trends for Finland since 1996:

Data: JMA

In Finland, all six stations for which the JMA has sufficient data show a slight to notable cooling since 1996. None have shown warming for the month of August.

Sweden

Next we look at Sweden, home of teen climate doomsday alarmist, Greta Thunberg:

Data: JMA

Poor Greta has seen her summers cool.

Norway

Finally we look at the trends at 11 stations in Norway:

Data: JMA

Seven of of 11 stations in Norway have seen cooling. So summers over far northern Europe obviously are not extending further into the fall. Quite the opposite seems to be the trend: fall is encroaching into summer.

And how is September, 2021, shaping up? The following anecdote provides a hint.

September may be “perhaps the coldest of the 21st century”

Earlier today at Twitter Mika Rantanen posted how frost has gripped much of Finland this morning, with temperatures falling to a wintry  -6.4°C.




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Oceans Were More ‘Acidic’ In The 1730s…Today’s CO2 Levels Are Geologically Trifling

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A new study shows ocean pH (“acidification”) levels naturally vary seasonally and decadally at rates and magnitudes far exceeding those attributed to anthropogenic activity.

In recent decades the oceans’ average pH level has fallen to 8.1 according to NOAA. This pH value is said to be about one-tenth of a unit lower than it was before modern industrialization (8.2).

Because the oceans are less alkaline than they were at one point in time, the directionality of these pH changes is referred to as an ocean acidification process. Of course, humans are said to be responsible for this. We are allegedly acidifying the oceans, or facilitating the 8.2 to 8.1 decline over the course of the last few centuries, because we humans have caused atmospheric CO2 levels to rise from 280 ppm to 415 ppm since 1750. That’s the allegation, anyway.

But these assumptions seem to be challenged by the results shown in studies authored by the very scientists promoting the human-caused ocean acidification narrative.

For example, a new study shows pH levels were lower in the 1730s and 1930s-’40s than in 2000, and that the highest pH levels (i.e., less acidic) of the last 300 years occurred in the 1960s to 1980s. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions were negligible to non-existent in the 1730s, and by the 1930s they were only hovering around 1 GtC/year. In the late 20th century, human emissions rates reached about 5 or 6 GtC/year, and yet it was these decades that had the highest pH levels since the early 18th century.

Further, seawater pH in the South China sea varies seasonally, or from about 8.1 in winter to 7.6 in summer. So, within a span of months, the ocean pH varies far more than it allegedly has due to human activity over centuries.

Image Source: Wei et al., 2021

A few other graphs from the Wei et al. (2021) paper show just how ordinary and unexceptional the modern atmospheric CO2 and ocean pH levels are relative to the past.

In the main graph from the below image, notice how minuscule a 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 level and 8.2 to 8.1 pH change (circles on the top left and right) look relative to the changes over the last 25 million years (Ma).

Then notice the wild variations in CO2 reaching 2500 to 3500 ppm between 40 to 60 Ma, and the pH values dipping to 7.4 or 7.5 during this same era. The top right graph shows pH levels dipping to 7.2 and atmospheric CO2 fluctuating by ±1000 ppm from about 182 to 185 Ma.

Image Source: Wei et al., 2021

Given today’s alarmism about ocean acidification driven by high atmospheric CO2 levels, these images beg the question:

How did marine animals manage to survive in such “acidified” waters (7.2 to 7.5) if it’s believed the modern biosphere is threatened by a pH value of 8.1?

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Body Of Evidence: All Of Antarctica Is Cooling… Peninsula Cooling Since Long Before Greta Was Born

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The IPCC 6th Report seems to have missed a lot, hasn’t it? Recent publications since the 5th Report show ALL OF ANTARCTICA, including the peninsula, has cooled since the late 1990s. 

Friday I wrote about how the entire continent of Antarctica (except its peninsula) was found by leading scientists to be cooling significantly.

The publication by Zhu et al, however, found that the Antarctic Peninsula had been warming – but not a statistically significant rate – over the past 4 decades.

Now in a reader comment Kenneth has brought to our attention to three scientific publications that show the peninsula has in fact been cooling since the late 1990s, after having warmed since the early 1950s!

Image source: sciencedirect.com

Here are the three terribly inconvenient papers for those still believing the lie the South Pole is warming, when in reality it is cooling at a “statistically significant” rate.

1. https://www.nature.com/

2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/

3. https://www.nature.com/

According to Kenneth: “The cooling since the 1990s hadn’t fully taken over the warming from 1979-1999 yet, so that’s why the overall trend is still a slight, statistically insignificant warming when referencing the entire 40-year period.”




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Scientists Find “Surprising” And “Statistically Significant” Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica

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East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the South Pole, has cooled a whopping 2.8°C over the past 4 decades; West Antarctica approximately 1.6°C. ..only tiny Antarctic Peninsula saw statistically insignificant warming.

German climate website Die kalte Sonne posted its 64th climate video here and examined a new paper on Antarctica by Zhu et al (2021): “An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released its latest ERA5 reanalysis dataset in 2017 and Zhu and his researchers compared the near-surface temperature data from ERA5 and ERA-Interim with the measured data from 41 weather stations.

They found that the temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations. The result: a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula. Note that the regions of east and West Antarctica combined are vastly larger than the tiny Antarctic Peninsula.

Substantial cooling 

The results are summarized as follows (cropped from Die kalte Sonne):

The table above shows East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.

West Antarctica has cooled at a rate of 0.42°C per decade over the past 40 years.

Die kalte Sonne finds the results “surprising” and “statistically significant”. And though the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed moderately, Die kalte Sonne sees nothing significant happening over this comparatively small region.

This of course should be seen as good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.




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New Study: High Arctic Canada’s Early Holocene Winter Air Temperatures Were ‘6-8°C Warmer Than Today’

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The Canadian Arctic’s surface temperatures have been up to 15 to 25°C warmer than today during the geologically recent Holocene, Pleistocene, and Pliocene epochs.

Scientists (Campbell-Heaton et al., 2021) assessing the ratio of winter temperature at the ground surface to that in the air (the “freezing n-factor”) suggest ground surface winter temperatures now (1981-2016) average -33°C in the Canadian Arctic’s Eureka Sound Lowlands.

About 9000 to 10,000 years ago, ground surface temperatures reached -18°C at this location, which is 15°C warmer than present. Winter air temperatures, were, on average, “6-8°C warmer than today” at this time too.

Image Source: Campbell-Heaton et al., 2021

Other sites in this same region of the Canadian Arctic (Eureka, ~78°N) were 22-25°C warmer than today during the Pliocene (Fletcher et al.,  2017), or 3-4 million years ago (Ma).

Mean annual temperatures (MAT) for the neighboring Meighen Island, for example, were about 4°C during this period, which is approximately 2°C warmer than the current MAT in Anchorage, Alaska (2°C). Today’s MAT at this location is around -20°C.

Image Source: Fletcher et al.,  2017
It was during the Pliocene and the early stages of the Pleistocene ice age (2.6 Ma to 11,700 years ago) that it was warm enough for camels to wander about in the Canadian Arctic in MAT 18.3°C warmer than present (Rybczynski et al., 2013).
Image Source: Rybczynski et al., 2013

It was during the Pleistocene that the Greenland ice sheet – which is today covered in 2 to 3 kilometers of ice (height) – was so warm it periodically melted to the ground, meaning the ice “disappeared on several occasions” (Young et al., 2021).

Image Source: Young et al., 2021

The peak CO2 values during the Pleistocene are alleged to be 280 ppm, which is lower than it was during the latter stages of the recent Little Ice Age period (~290 ppm).

These temperature reconstructions thus strongly suggests CO2 concentrations have little or nothing to do with mean annual surface temperatures in Arctic regions.

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Veteran Chemical Engineer: Recent Warming Likely Caused By Relative Humidity Decrease, Not CO2 GHG

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Global Warming Driven by Relative Humidity Decrease, Not CO2 GHG! Solution: More Ocean Evaporation

By David R. Motes

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is quantitatively driven by a steady relative humidity decrease of 0.13%/year throughout the troposphere since 1970 per the chart below, and not CO2 GHG (Green House Gas).  The resulting evaporation reduction is a 3 factor larger AGW driver than CO2 GHG theory.  These quantitative facts are based on calculations using consensus scientific data and diagrams from CO2 GHG proponent sites such as the IPCC, NASA, NOAA, and the International Energy Agency. The main points of the linked 29-page paper pdf follow:

Global relative humidity throughout the troposphere has fallen steadily since 1970. 

Warming will reverse only when the relative humidity decrease is reversed. 

Relative humidity drives precipitation and evaporation which is responsible for absorption and dispersion of 24% of the solar energy reaching the earth’s surface per the below NOAA solar energy balance.  Evaporation transports this energy to the upper troposphere for radiation to space.  1. This evaporation reduction (ER) radiative energy imbalance (watts/m2) from the above 0.13%/year relative humidity decline is calculated to be a 3 factor higher than the IPCC CO2 GHG energy imbalance.  2. This same ER generates a calculated temperature rise 2.6 times more than the actual measured temperature rise since 1975 using the IPCC Climate Sensitivity factor.

Above evaporation reduction is driven by CO2 induced plant water use efficiency (WUE) increase. 

81% of the above ER radiative energy imbalance is generated by a CO2 induced 0.70%/year plant water use efficiency (WUE) increase.  In the photosynthesis reaction, higher CO2 allows plants to transpire less water.  The WUE increase and resulting ER decrease are anthropogenic since man generated the atmospheric CO2.  This better explains the correlation between CO2 and temperature since 1900 than CO2 GHG.

Only evaporation reduction fits all the scientific data, not CO2 GHG theory. 

This novel ER science provides an explanation for the undeniable AGW since 1900 that fits all the scientific data as explained in the paper: temperature / CO2 historic correlations, the relative humidity decrease above, solar energy balance above, hydrologic balance above, carbon mass balance below, carbon source for CO2, GHG parameters, etc.  All the ER quantifications are scientific fact and explain the 2 different historic correlations between CO2 and temperature: 1. 1900+ anthropogenic correlation 2. the prior million-year plant biomass correlation.  Engineering quantifications were performed using existing consensus data.  Granted, other climate drivers also exist such as solar effects.

Conversely, CO2 GHG theory remains a largely unquantifiable, problematic theory. By example, eleven CO2 GHG theory problems are quantified and graphically presented (all resolved by ER science).  Our focus was on engineering quantification versus the hereto date presentation of GHG data and theories.

Increasing ocean evaporation is less expensive and more effective than simply reducing annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Quantified problems with the proposed CO2 annual emission reduction plans are:

  1. Focuses on the 1%/year annual contribution and illogically ignores the 99% existing atmospheric CO2.
  2. Focuses solely on reducing the 8% CO2 emissions driver, while ignoring the 92% plant life CO2 driver.

This fresh chemical engineering perspective from a high-altitude sheds new light on an old subject. The above hydrologic balance, above energy balance, below carbon balance, and other calculations detailed in this study have not previously been quantified and summarized as presented.  Again, the full 29-page paper pdf may be viewed or downloaded at docudroid.com which includes a 2-page Abstract of the key points.   All calculations, details, explanations, references and contacts are contained in the linked pdf

================================

David Motes is a 43-year professional chemical engineer residing in Houston, Texas.    




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33 Holocaust Survivors/Descendants Defend COVID Vaccine Critic Prof. Bhakdi Against Anti-Semitism Smears

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Repulsive smear campaign by Big Media, German ARD public television

Like Wikipedia, German flagship ARD public television has maliciously accused outspoken microbiologist Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi of “being an anti-Semite” in a smear campaign against the renowned researcher and COVID-19 vaccine critic. 

Smear campaign by Wikipedia, German ARD public television gets a harsh reaction from 33 Holocaust survivors who rally to defend “good man”. 

33 Holocaust survivors/decedents rally behind soft-spoken professor

In a response, 33 Holocaust Survivors/Descendants have published an open letter in German to protest the vicious tactics. What follows is the open letter translated in the English (bold headings added by NTZ).

=======================

OPEN LETTER FROM HOLOCAUST SURVIVORS AND DESCENDANTS TO THE GERMAN MEDIA

After the shocking news reached us that the state-funded media have accused Professor Sucharit Bhakdi of being an anti-Semite, we have decided to write this letter. We stand behind Professor Bhakdi because he speaks the truth.

“Media have lied”…”instrumentalized the Holocaust”

You, the media, have lied to the people for years by preaching false lessons from the Holocaust. That is not the lesson of the Holocaust, that Jews must not be killed or questioned. No human being should be killed! The lesson from the Holocaust is that you must not stand by and participate when a minority is persecuted. You have instrumentalized the Holocaust to achieve the opposite: to deprive people of the will to resist injustice. And in this godless way you have prepared a new Holocaust and are in the process of implementing it.

Again in Germany: campaign to “deny, injure and humiliate”

We expressly warn that another holocaust is unfolding, only bigger and more more sophisticated. The brutality with which you fight the opposition, both verbally and physically, deny, injure and humiliate, and serves to suppress the truth. Destroyed lives, apartment searches, occupational bans, forced psychiatric detentions, and worse – this could be the story of our lives, but this is the reality we observe in Germany.

Dr. Bhakdi has done nothing wrong. He merely implied that the phrase “Vaccination Macht Frei” bears an uncanny resemblance to the slogan on the gate of Auschwitz, which is quite correct. Please stop attacking this good man, who is certainly not an anti-Semite.”

Rabbi William Handler
Brooklyn, NY
Born in Satumare, Romania
Holocaust Survivor

***

“I’m alive because my grandmother was disobedient when it was ordered that Jews should gather, like now to the vaccination centers by means of coercion and fear. I’m alive because courageous people were disobedient when they were forbidden to hide Jews Just as now Sucharit Bhakdi and other decent people are disobeying to save lives. To punish them for this with the term “anti-Semite” is an outrageous hypocrisy.”

Masha Orel

***

“My grandparents and my mother were in Bergen-Belsen because of their Jewish origin. I am not religious, but this heritage has accompanied me since my youth and I react very sensitively to anti-Semitism in any form. Whoever calls Prof. Bhakdi an anti-Semite because of an unfortunate formulation has never had anything to do with anti-Semites. It is probably done with the aim of discrediting this humane and emotionally committed scientist on a personal level. I would like to raise my voice against that.”

Andrea Drescher

***

“Immediately after the report by Mr. Wulf Rohwedder (ARD), in which Prof. Bhakdi was stigmatized as an anti-Semite, we wrote to several broadcasters. We set the record straight that the constant misuse of the term “anti-Semite” in no way serves the safety of Jews. The opposite is the case. No response came from any of those responsible, nor was there a public apology. Now those who know best how it feels to be stigmatized and persecuted are speaking out.”

Ruth Machnes and Arie Suchovolsky, lawyers, Tel-Aviv, Israel, +972 03-5663222.




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New Study: No Trend In Compound Natural Disasters Across Australia Since 1966

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Three new studies affirm there has been no significant change in natural disasters, precipitation, or bushfire across Australia for the last several decades.

Instances when perilous flooding, drought, bushfire, cyclones, storms, heatwaves…occur at the nearly same time are classified as “compound disaster” events.

Across Australia, there has been no statistically significant trend in compound disaster events over any period in the last 50 years.

The predominant and most predictable driver of climate-related disaster events is not anthropogenic global warming, or CO2 emissions, but the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Gissing et al., 2021

“Here we utilise an Australian natural disaster database of normalised insurance losses to show compound disasters are responsible for the highest seasonal financial losses. Though their component events occur most frequently in the eastern seaboard, they may also comprise disasters on both sides of the continent. There has been no temporal trend in their frequency since 1966. A new compound disaster scale is proposed for Australian conditions. A bootstrapping analysis reveals the pairing of Bushfire and Tropical Cyclone to occur far less often than would be expected by chance. This is because these perils occur most frequently under contrasting climate states. Climate variability influences the frequency, intensity and type of perils contributing to compound disasters with the clearest relationship being with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Given that ENSO is the most predictable climate driver at seasonal timescales, this may assist better forecasting of their occurrence and higher degrees of readiness.”

Image Source: Gissing et al., 2021

Precipitation patterns across Australia also show no detectable trend in the last 50 years, as some regions have experienced more rainfall and some less rainfall. As a whole, however, the country has become slightly wetter since 1960 (as indicated by the larger concentrations of blue in the below images).

Wasko et al., 2021

Northern parts of Australia have experienced increasing annual rainfall totals, resulting in increased water availability in the tropics with increased soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff, particularly during the hot, wet monsoon season. In contrast, the southwest and southeast coast of Australia have experienced declines in rainfall, particularly in the colder months, corresponding with decreasing evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. Trends in flooding are aligned with runoff trends, and closely follow trends in rainfall, with changes in soil moisture of secondary influence. Streamflow droughts, measured by the standardised runoff index, are increasing across large parts of Australia, with these increases more widespread than changes in rainfall alone. Increases in rainfall in the tropics of northern Australia appear to be related to decreasing drought occurrence and extent, but this trend is not universal, suggesting changes in rainfall alone are not an indicator of changing drought conditions.”

Image Source: Wasko et al., 2021

Another new study indicates Australia is far less prone to fire today than it was 4600 to 2800 years ago. All proxies denoting fire incidence have shown a significant decline in the last 900 years.

Rehn et al., 2021 (full)

“Fire has a long history in Australia and is a key driver of vegetation dynamics in the tropical savanna ecosystems that cover one quarter of the country. Fire reconstructions are required to understand ecosystem dynamics over the long term but these data are lacking for the extensive savannas of northern Australia. This paper presents a multiproxy palaeofire record for Marura sinkhole in eastern Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, Australia. The record is constructed by combining optical methods (counts and morphology of macroscopic and microscopic charcoal particles) and chemical methods (quantification of abundance and stable isotope composition of pyrogenic carbon by hydrogen pyrolysis). This novel combination of measurements enables the generation of a record of relative fire intensity to investigate the interplay between natural and anthropogenic influences. The Marura palaeofire record comprises three main phases: 4600–2800 cal BP, 2800–900 cal BP and 900 cal BP to present. Highest fire incidence occurs at ~4600–4000 cal BP, coinciding with regional records of high effective precipitation, and all fire proxies decline from that time to the present. 2800–900 cal BP is characterised by variable fire intensities and aligns with archaeological evidence of occupation at nearby Blue Mud Bay. All fire proxies decline significantly after 900 cal BP. The combination of charcoal and pyrogenic carbon measures is a promising proxy for relative fire intensity in sedimentary records and a useful tool for investigating potential anthropogenic fire regimes.”

Image Source: Rehn et al., 2021
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