RSS Suspected Of “Serious Data Doping”, German Scientists Say…”Values Fudged To Fit Models”!

Serious Climate Doping Suspicion Against RSS: Satellite Temperatures Raised One And Half Tenths Of A Degree
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Temperatures can be measured from the ground and from satellites. Satellite data have two versions, UAH and RSS. The version of UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) makes a solid impression. The RSS version shows larger deviations and suggests a stronger warming.

How come?

Doping the data

Both datasets surely get their data from similar satellites. The explanation lies in a “post-processing” of the measured values ​​by the RSS group. In the chart below you can see the old version in red.

Global temperature based on RSS satellite measurements. From Climate4You Newsletter June 2018.

At some point from mid 2015, the RSS people pushed the temperatures starting at  the year 2000 manually upwards. Therefore today you can find the values ​​of the blue curve in the database. As a result of this subsequent data change, additional warming was generated at a speed of one and a half tenths of a degree. It does not sound very much, but it is much if you consider that the 20th century warming was only eight-tenths of a degree.

Data on statistical steroids

It’s a little bit as like a year 2010 high jump world record of 2.40 meter later being changed to 2.45 meter by the International Athletics Federation. We could call this desktop doping, which would certainly not be a bad description for the RSS intervention.

RSS statisticians massively massaged their data under the radar, without any interest from the media. A few years later new heat records get surprisingly reported, but in many cases likely solely through the heat-promoting measures of desktop doping.

Change the data to fit the broken models

The changes happen to affect the hiatus phase, as it apparently had to do with the fear that the warming would not continue. The values ​​were simply raised. It’s a classic case where the readings did not confirm the models. But instead of improving the models, the measurement data were changed. There are hardly any other disciplines out there where things work this way.

Once again, it’s clear that we urgently need climate-related checks. The damage to the trust is already done. Now only stricter checks can help, and restricting employees in cases of suspicion – lifelong in the case of repeat-offenders.

Criminal fraud

Proposal: Anyone who fabricates or falsifies climate data, or brings these willfully into the public, should be punished with 2 years in prison.

 

Climate Ambulance Chasers AWOL In Tropical Atlantic As “Shear” And Cooler SSTs Put Lid On Hurricanes

To keep informed on how the Atlantic hurricane season is developing, I find that hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach of the Colorado State University does a good job at that at Twitter.

A warmer planet does not mean more hurricanes

As the peak of the hurricane season approaches (September) he recently tweeted below average activity was forecast for the next two weeks:

That’s good news, especially in light of the fact that global warming experts, who seem not to understand how hurricanes develop, warned that these Atlantic cyclones would keep getting more frequent and stronger. Data suggest this has been hardly the case.

Detrimental wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures

So what’s been keeping the lid on hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic development zone this year?

Klotzbach mainly points to two 2 factors: sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear. A couple of days ago he tweeted that wind shear in the region has been “above average” and that this tends to “reduce hurricane activity”:

Here Klotzbach even tweeted that vertical wind shear was “detrimental for hurricane formation.”

Shear 5th strongest since 1980

On August 10, the Colorado State University hurricane expert tweeted that wind shear had been at the 5th strongest in close to 40 years:

Mid August Tropical Atlantic surface temps cool

Although the tropical Atlantic surface has warmed up a bit, sea surface temperatures still remain cool there, which, according to Klotzbach, “for mid August are the coldest since 1994” and thus tend to suppress hurricane formation:

Unfavorable peak season hurricane formation conditions

Klotzbach sums up the forecast for the upcoming peak season in his tweet accompanying the first diagram above.

Latest output from the Climate Forecast System model calls for above-average vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic in September – the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Strong shear reduces hurricane activity.”

Good news. But when it comes to weather, things can turn on a dime.

PS: Another great place for hurricane information is Tropical Tidbits.

Japan’s JMA Claim Of “Relatively Small” Urbanization Effect Likely An Understatement Of Multiple Degrees

Aerial photos show that the 15 temperature observation stations the JMA is using to determine mean temperature anomalies are likely impacted far more by urbanization than the agency claims.

By Kirye
and P. Gosselin

According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) here, as of 2018, 15 observation stations are used to gather data to calculate surface temperature anomalies.

The 15 sites are Abashiri, Nemuro, Suttsu, Yamagata, Ishinomaki, Fushiki, Iida, Choshi, Sakai, Hamada, Hikone, Miyazaki, Tadotsu, Naze and Ishigakijima. Here’s a table of these stations from NASA:

NASA is using only 7 of these stations (marked). Many of these 15 stations used by the JMA have a high BI value, meaning they are heavily impacted by urbanization.

An earlier document issued by the JMA stated that the agency had used 17 stations, see Table 1.2.3. Today they are using 15.

JMA selection criteria: “relatively small” urbanization influence

The JMA says the criteria for selecting the 15 weather observation sites are: they have a long observation period and the influence of urbanization is “relatively small” and “not biased”.

What follows is a location plot of the 15 JMA observation stations scattered across Japan:

How “relatively small” is the urbanization really?

To find out more about the siting quality of the stations, Kirye used Google Earth to locate the stations.

What follows are Google Earth photos of their location. You will see that the JMA’s description “relative small” influence of urbanization is quite an understatement.

It’s urban warming, and not global warming!

Many stations are in fact dubiously surrounded by massively heat-absorbing structures. Keep in mind the pinpoint location shown could be off by some meters.

Abashiri is in the middle of buildings and streets.

 

Choshi is also found in a densely built up area, which would tend to really heat up in the summer.

 

Fushiki observation station is somewhat better sited, with more green vegetation in the area, yet much temperature distorting paved surfaces are nearby.

 

Hamada station is also becoming increasingly choked off by urbanization.

 

Hikone is right in the middle asphalt and buildings. We can only wonder how much all the air conditioners around are heating up temperature readings in the summertime? This is urban warming, and not global warming!

 

Iida station. Wow! Hardly any green vegetation in sight, so the area must really heat up in the summertime sun, and keep things warm late into the evenings.

 

Miyazaki station. Japan loves concrete and asphalt. So little room for vegetation. Expect the green fields to go in the years ahead.

 

Ishinomaki station. Everywhere heat-absorbing buildings and asphalt streets that boost the readings.

 

Naze. NASA assigns it a BI of 0, meaning as rural as could be. Maybe the reason for this is because Naze is on an island in the middle of the ocean. But here we see the station is in the middle of a city.

 

Nemuro station is also surrounded by buildings, concrete, steel and asphalt. Perhaps the Google Earth marker is not so exact and so the station is in the field to the right. Still, lots buildings and hot asphalt around.

 

Sakai station has some green areas around it, but still great urban influences at work.

 

Suttsu, only the second station considered by NASA to be “rural” is so only on one side! If the wind blows from the forest to the west, then the readings will be more accurate.

 

Tadotsu is a terribly sited stations, due to obvious reasons. The whole place is a giant heat sink!

 

Yamagata, the last of the 15 stations JMA uses, is also completely surrounded by heat absorbing asphalt, concrete, steel and buildings.

What can we conclude?

Little wonder that global temps shot up just after 1990 when NASA stopped using so many stations worldwide, and seemed to focus more on those sited in urban environments.

Arguably the JMA’s claim of a “relatively small” influence from urbanization is an understatement of multiple degrees.

New Arctic Study Finds Spring Sea Ice Melted 2 Months Earlier Than Today During Roman, Medieval Times

Scientists have determined that today’s Arctic sea ice concentrations are still much higher than they have been for most of the last several thousand years, undermining claims that modern era Arctic sea ice changes are remarkable, unusual, or unprecedented. 

Source: Kolling et al., 2018

In the graphical illustration of Late Holocene West Greenland sea ice changes shown above, Kolling and colleagues (2018) indicate that both present-day and Little Ice Age era (~1300s to 1800s AD) sea ice does not melt until May.(Fig. 6a).

During most of the last 2,200 years — especially during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Roman Warm Period (RWP) — spring sea ice melted in March, two months earlier than today (Fig. 6b).

The authors attribute the lower-than-today sea ice concentrations and warmer temperatures during the MWP and RWP to a “self-amplifiying system” involving variations in solar activity and the AMO.  Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not mentioned in the paper as a factor influencing sea ice changes.

The period between 2.2 and 1.2 kyr BP, with lower than modern sea ice conditions in Disko Bugt (Fig. 6b), coincides with generally warm conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet.”
“A self-amplifying system may have caused the environmental changes observed in Disko Bugt area as follows: solar triggered Arctic sea ice melt [Ruzmaikin et al., 2004] increases freshwater supply towards the North Atlantic causing a reduction in sub-polar gyre activity and AMO [Holland et al., 2001, Schmith et al., 2003] as described by Sha et al. [2016].”

Consistent with other reconstructions for the region (Kryk et al., 2017Durantou et al., 2012Yamamoto et al., 2017Perner et al., 2018), proxy evidence shows that current sea ice conditions are only modestly different than the indicated conditions during the past few centuries.

Source: Kryk et al., 2017Durantou et al., 2012Yamamoto et al., 2017Perner et al., 2018

The lack of any unusual or remarkable change in sea ice conditions during the modern era relative to the past suggests there is a lack of conspicuous connection between rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the Arctic climate.


Kolling et al., 2018

New insights into sea ice changes over the
past 2.2 kyr in Disko Bugt, West Greenland

“Our biomarker record indicates that Disko Bugt [West Greenland] experienced a gradual expansion of seasonal sea ice during the last 2.2 kyr. Maximum sea ice extent was reached during the Little Ice Age around 0.2 kyr BP. Superimposed on this longer term trend, we find short-term oscillations in open water primary production and terrigenous input, which may be related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and solar activity changes as potential climatic trigger mechanisms.
The period between 2.2 and 1.2 kyr BP, with lower than modern sea ice conditions in Disko Bugt (Fig. 6b), coincides with generally warm conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet.”
“Overall, IP25 concentrations remained relatively low and constant until 1.2 kyr BP, followed by a gradual increase (Fig. 3e). The lowest [sea ice] concentrations, around 0.06 µg/gTOC, are observed in the lowermost core section from 2.2 to 1.5 kyr BP (Fig. 3e).”
During the last 0.1 kyr, all biomarker concentrations showed an increase, brassicasterol and HBI III reach maximum values in the uppermost sample (80 µg/gTOC and 1.8 µg/gTOC, respectively; Fig. 3b, d).”

Source: Kolling et al., 2018
[During the Little Ice Age (0.7–0.2 kyr BP)] our biomarker record supports harsher sea ice conditions, possibly similar to conditions as observed today (Fig. 6b), indicated by strong increased in IP25 concentration and the PDIP25 index (Fig. 4c, d).”

Source: Kolling et al., 2018
AMO variability has been linked to solar activity changes [Knudsen et al., 2011]. Changes in incoming radiation may influence sea ice extent and the Greenland Ice Sheet behaviour [Ruzmaikin et al., 2004] and consequently affect the freshwater discharge/inflow [Schmith et al., 2003] and nutrient availability to the area. A self-amplifying system may have caused the environmental changes observed in Disko Bugt area as follows: solar triggered Arctic sea ice melt [Ruzmaikin et al., 2004] increases freshwater supply towards the North Atlantic causing a reduction in sub-polar gyre activity and AMO [Holland et al., 2001, Schmith et al., 2003] as described by Sha et al. [2016]. This may in turn cause distinct changes in WGC composition and meltwater supply from the Greenland Ice Sheet that affects phytoplankton blooms in West Greenland.”
“We find that the Disko Bugt area was influenced by seasonal sea ice over the last 2.2 kyr BP. The overall sea ice trend indicates a development from a reduced sea ice cover during early spring, with sea ice algae productivity hampered by light availability to a gradual extend of the sea ice season from 1.2 kyr BP onwards. This change in sea ice extend is parallel to decreasing Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperatures and culminates in the Little Ice Age around 0.2 kyr. We assume that modern conditions, with sea ice present until late spring and the presence of a stable ice edge at Disko Bugt, established around that time [~200 years ago].”

90% Of Japan’s Rural Stations Show Cooling Or No Trend Over Past 2 Decades!

Guest post by Kirye in Tokyo

An analysis of the rural-sited Japanese weather stations used by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows there’s been no warming at all over the the past 2 decades or more.

Strangely many of these stations, which are practically unimpacted by data-corruptive urban sprawl, are no longer used by NASA.

For example, NASA quit using the rural Fukaura station back in 1990. Up to that point Fukaura was cooling notably. What follows is the NASA chart for Fukaura:


Fukaura showed cooling before NASA dropped the station in 1990. Image: NASA

The same, for example, is true for Nikko.

NASA dropped rural Japanese stations

What follows below is a list of the rural stations I examined, which have a Brightness Index (BI) of 10 or less. The far right column shows the period they were used by NASA.

Source: NASA.

My earlier enquiries about stations sent to NASA via the Internet went without any answer. Perhaps they don’t reply to foreign requests. I don’t know.

The next chart below is the geographical plot of these rural sited stations. As you see they are all well scattered across the country:

Google Earth map showing location of the rural stations.

JMA data in fact show no warming

What follows below are temperature charts for each station, using the data from the JMA, arranged in more or less alphabetical order. On some charts I plotted more than one station.

Over 90% of rural stations show cooling or no trend

Of the 24 stations plotted, 22 show no change or some modest cooling over the past two or more decades – that’s more than 90%. Only two stations show some warming, but only a very modest amount.

Aburatsu data, Ushibuka data

 

Data Aikawa here. Oshima here. Katsuura here. Miyakejima here.

 

Akune data, Makurazaki data

 

 Fukaura here.

 

Fukue data, Yakushima data

 

Hachijojima data.

 

Data Irozaki

 

Miyama data. Note: NASA has never used Miyama’s temperature data, but the rural area in Kyoto Pref is also a slight cooling trend.

 

Murotomisaki data

 

Naze data

 

Nikko data here.

 

Shionomisaki data,

Sukumo data

 

Suttsu data

 

Tanegashima data

 

Okinoerabu data, Minamidatojima data, Kumejima data, Yonagunijima data

 

Japan shows no warming over past 2 decades

What follows next is the chart for all of Japan for the last 20 years, using data from the JMA:

As the chart above shows, using JMA data, the whole country of Japan shows no warming over the past two decades.

Urban environment

Tony Heller at Real Science here shows the environment that many Japanese weather stations – like the ones NASA use – find themselves having to deal with.

But as the temperature chart for all of Japan mentioned above shows, even the urban heat island effect still is unable to produce warming over the past 20 years. Without the cities one could rightfully argue there would be a cooling trend.
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Spiegel Science Journalist Takes Climate Heat-Hysteria Head On: “Speculation”…”Time For A Cool Examination”

Give Der Spiegel credit for offering some balance in a debate that sorely needs it…

Geology major, science journalist Axel Bojanowski just penned a commentary at Spiegel Online on the recent hot weather hype we witnessed in the wake of Europe’s warm and unusually dry summer.

Spiegel journalist Axel Bojanowski takes the recent climate heating hysteria head on, writing that the recent shrill claims by some scientists defy IPCC’s own findings. Photo image: cropped from Twitter here.

The title of his commentary: “Overheated – Forest Fires, Drought, Heat – Has The Climate Catastrophe Already Arrived? Time For A Cool Examination.”

Media “part of the problem”

Over the past couple of weeks, alarmists and media from the usual suspect institutes have been stopping at nothing to blame this year’s dry northern European summer on man-made climate change, and have renewed (from within their air-conditioned offices) calls for people to finally accept making the huge sacrifices needed to keep the climate system from “tipping” into irreversible catastrophe.

The Spiegel journalist comments on another shrill column, by , published a week earlier also by Spiegel. Diez echoed the doom and gloom presented to us in Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change by Nathaniel Rich of the New York Times magazine.

According to Diez, it is now clear “what it means to live in a time of catastrophe”.

Here Bojanowski notes “it turns out that many reports are part of the problem.”

Global warming not known and “supported” until the 1990s

Firstly, Bojanowski calls the claim that we knew about global warming already back in the 1970s false, and that it was in reality first an idea that only came up in the 1980s and did not get scientifically supported until the 1990s. He then adds that “considerable uncertainties remain, that still have not been cleared away even until today.”

James Hansen “damaged trust in climate science”

Bojanowski also describes how James Hansen jumped the gun in 1988, and how his methods “damaged the trust in climate science even until today.” Another problem at the time was the media running with the most spectacular doomsday scenarios with the aim of capturing public attention.

Still fraught with “considerable uncertainties”

According to Bojanowski, although Hansens’s dramatic claims did thrust him into the pioneer role, they also contributed “to the division of society in the climate debate, which has made it more difficult to produce political solutions even today.”

He also points out that the media and alarmists continue to ignore the IPCC’s own findings on a number of fronts, such droughts, where he reports that drought scenarios as a consequence of climate change “are subject to considerable uncertainty, according to the UN climate report.”

‘Very sharp decline’ in the fires since 2001

The free-thinking Spiegel journalist also mentions how we seldom hear why fires worldwide have been on the decline over the past decades: “Since 2001, researchers have even noticed a ‘very sharp decline’ in the fires.”

“Debate in dilemma”

Bojanowski calls the media’s hope that exaggerations will motivate people to support climate change “a fallacy”. The more climate scientists hype up the science, the more people will turn away from the topic, he writes, citing sociologists.

Bojanowski’s assessment: “The debate is in a dilemma: only those who push themselves forward with hysteria, get attention.”

No new findings, old speculation

Finally the Spiegel journalist also expressed his surprise over how a recent shrill paper that announced the possibility a hot period was starting needed only 17 days to get published. Bojanowski noted that the paper “did not present any new findings” and that “it was about known speculations over so-called climate tipping points.”

Protecting climate protection

Without surprise, Bojanowski’s commentary was greeted by a less than friendly German reaction. He tweeted here of having been accused of “damaging climate protection”. Climate science dissent in Germany is not to be tolerated. Exercising dissent, or even just keeping a cool head, can make you an enemy of the cause.

 

Climate Alarm Flames Out As Scientists Find Global Fires/Burned Area Has Sharply DECLINED Since 1910s

The purveyors of climate alarm posit that rising CO2 emissions cause up to 600% increases in burned area due to global warming. Newly published science thoroughly undermines these claims. Observational evidence affirms global-scale fire frequencies and burned area have actually been declining for decades (especially since the early 1900s), with overall biomass burning lower today than during the much colder Little Ice Age.

Bottom Graph Source: Ward et al., 2018

On a global scale, fire emissions/burned area peaked in the 1910s, but then plummeted to “about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010” (Ward et al., 2018).

The decreasing trend in wildfires has continued unabated in the 21st century, as there has been “a strong statistically significant decline in 2001–2016 active fires globally” (Earl and Simmonds, 2018).

On a long-term scale, “global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any time in the past 2000 years” (Doerr and Santín, 2016).

Even in the Western United States, where wildfires are currently ravaging the landscape, there has been a “decline in burning over the past 3,000 y[ears], with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE)” (Marlon et al., 2012).

The perception of increasing fire occurrence vs. the observations of decreasing trends

Doerr and Santín (2016) characterize the association between global warming and increases in wildfires as a “perception” spawned by using selective regional data and short timescales (in other words, by excluding contradictory evidence).  The alarming conclusions that wildfires are worsening due to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are then promulgated by mainstream media.

“Numerous reports, ranging from popular media through to peer-reviewed scientific literature, have led to a common perception
that fires have increased or worsened in recent years around the world. Where these reports are accompanied by quantitative observations, they are often based on short timescales and regional data for fire incidence or area burned, which do not necessarily reflect broader temporal or spatial realities.”

To summarize, there are “widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses“, and yet “the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends” (Doerr and Santín, 2016).


Ward et al., 2018

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions
Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. … Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr−1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub‐Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present‐day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.”


Earl and Simmonds, 2018

Spatial and Temporal Variability and
Trends in 2001–2016 Global Fire Activity

We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001–2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity.”


Doerr and Santín, 2016

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts:
perceptions versus realities in a changing world

“Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses.”

“However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.”

“Analysis of charcoal records in sediments [Marlon et al., 2008] and isotope-ratio records in ice cores [Wang et al., 2010] suggest that global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any time in the past 2000 years.”

“Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.”


Marlon et al., 2012

Long-term perspective on
wildfires in the western USA

“Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s.”

“Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.”

 

World Leading Alarmist Climate Scientist: 100 Fossil-Fuel Flights, 50 Tonnes Of CO2 Annually!

German skeptic blog Science Skeptical here takes a look at the carbon footprint of Prof. Hans-Joachim (John) Schellnhuber, the former director of the ultra alarmist and activist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Professor Schellnhuber is so worried about man’s destruction of the climate through human CO2 emissions and the “fossil fuel metabolism” of our society that he’s written a number of books on the subject, warning we’re on the verge of burning ourselves to death.

Not surprisingly these vivid books have been very popular among end-of-world conspiracists and climate Armageddon believers. His latest: Selbstverbrennung (Self Immolation).

 Image: C. Bertelsmann Publishing.

Mankind committing “collective suicide”

A short summary of his book explains how Schellnhuber warns that if “our civilization does not move to the often-mentioned two-degree limit, but much more dramatically to a warming of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the continued burning of fossil fuels threatens to lead to collective suicide.”

Himalayan glaciers on the verge of disappearing

The doomsday professor, known in Germany as the “Climate Pope” and whose every word is taken by most of the German mainstream media as infallible, once said that the ideal population for the planet is a billion people (meaning soon there will be 7 billion too many) and the Himalayan glaciers would be gone by 2030.

Do as I say, not as I do

So with Schellnhuber’s level of conviction, certainty and urgency, it would only seem logical that the Bavarian-born professor would himself be setting an example for the rest of us on how to live responsibly with CO2 and forego fossil fuels.

Unfortunately, like a Catholic Pope and Cardinals who allow themselves lavish life styles while preaching others not to do the same, Schellnhuber allows himself exorbitant CO2 and fossil fuel privileges. Do as I say, not as I do.

“Certainly fly 100 times a year”

According to Science Skeptical, Schellnhuber was interviewed in 2005 by Tagesspiegel. In the interview he confessed he was not doing his part in “protecting the climate”. When asked if he had ever calculated his own contribution to climate change, Schellnhuber responded:

Yes, it is quite high because I myself certainly fly 100 times a year.”

And when asked what car he drives:

A BMW from the new 1 series. It consumes 6 liters diesel [per 100 km], but that’s only half as much as my previous car.”

Science Skeptical then did a rough calculation of Schellnhuber’s CO2 output using the CO2 calculator provided by the German Ministry of Environment. The result, assuming normal consumer behavior, but flying 100 times a year, each flight on average 2 hours long: 50 tonnes of CO2 each year!

The average German emits only about 10 tonnes annually.

Skeptical Science next wonders how much CO2 the climate-doomsday-preaching Potsdam Institute with its 4.5 million euro super-computer, and all it’s jet-setting climate-rescuing scientists, emit into the atmosphere. Not a pretty picture. They all happily rely on the conveniences provided by the very fuels they profess to detest.

Contempt for regular workers

In terms of CO2, the employees at the PIK thus consume a multiple times what the average German worker does. But German workers, you see, really don’t do necessary worthwhile work, and so are producing CO2 needlessly. PIK workers, on the other hand, are rescuing the planet, and so their CO2 emissions are really necessary.

 

German Flagship Daily ‘Die Welt’: Germany Has A Hot Weather “Hysteria Problem”

A wave of media hysteria has been unleashed by the recent hot and dry “Sahara” weather Europe has seen over the past few weeks. Cries to shut down the coal power plants and to adopt vegan diets have reached peak volume!

ARD Fake News: “CO2 causing lung disease”

The neurosis has gotten so bad, that flagship German media have been reporting new breath-taking claims.

For example Germany’s version of the BBC ARD German public television, here claimed that CO2 is not only “killing the climate”, but is also even “causes lung disease”!

NBC’s Al Roker: Warming now causing less hurricanes!

In the US, NBC meteorologist Al Roker here did have some good news: Global warming is now causing less hurricanes (and not more): The melting Arctic ice is cooling the Atlantic, which works against the formation of hurricanes, he claimed.

Unfortunately that “information” from Mr. Roker has turned out to be really fake. Expert meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue even called Roker’s outlandish claim “cringeworthy”.

“Not heat problem, rather hysteria problem”

But among the cacophony of hysteria emanating from the global fake news construct, there have been a few remaining voices of sanity – fortunately.

For example journalist/lead commentator Torsten Krauel of Germany’s flag ship national daily Die Welt here wrote an opinion piece titled: “Germany doesn’t have a heat problem, rather it has a hysteria problem.

In the opinion piece Krauel writes:

There have been many hot summers, as well as rainy cool ones. Germany does not have a heat problem, and a look at the past shows this.”

Krauel then reminds the amnesia-prone German readers of the hot spells of the 1990s, or 2006, 1983, 1975, 1963 and 1958 as examples, where periods of heat and/or extreme drought also occurred.

Indeed according to Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann, July 2006 was much warmer than July 2018, by 2°C.

Going vegan our only hope

Die Welt’s Krauel adds with sarcasm:

But over 2018 in some places they complain like end-of world preachers. It is the largest anomaly since records have been kept. Water will be in short supply, Sea level is rising. Become a vegan, otherwise it will continue like this.”

Cold front erases the hysteria

In the meantime, a cold front has passed through the continent, thus dislodging the blocking high behind the unusually summerlike weather which many had been enjoying.

Central European temperatures today as of 1 p.m. ranged only from the low sixties to low seventies Fahrenheit.

Chart: Kachelmannwetter.de

It won’t be long before we start hearing complaints about all the cool and damp weather and longings for summer.

Sham Predictions By NASA, NSIDC, U of Cambridge, VP Al Gore, Sen. John Kerry Exposed

Charlatans exposed…when sham predictions clash with reality

Yesterday Japanese blogger Kirye prepared a chart (below) depicting Arctic sea ice volume since 2006, the year Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth (AIT) was released, and just a year or two before a spate of ice-free-Arctic-by-2013 (or earlier) predictions were issued by a number of “experts”, which of course the fake news media lapped up.

Source: Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye.

Arctic did the opposite of what the experts forecast

As Kirye’s chart above shows, Arctic sea ice volume in reality has since increased since all the doomsday predictions of 10 years ago. The very opposite of what was confidently predicted has in fact taken place.

Same level as in the 1930s, when CO2 was far lower

Naturally the alarmists like using the sea ice extent chart that goes back to 1979, which shows a clear downward trend because 1979 was at a peak for Arctic sea ice.

However, when we look at charts depicting Arctic sea ice since 1900, we see that today’s Arctic sea ice situation is in fact similar to what we experienced some 80-90 years ago:

Chart: Alekseev et al, 2016.

A false prediction is a false prediction

That Arctic sea ice has declined significantly since about 1970 is not the point here. The real story is all the bold predictions of an ice-free Arctic that were made at the time just after AIT was released, and how they all failed resoundingly.

To illustrate the point very clearly, I used Kirye’s plot and added those expert’s predictions so we can see how they all fare compared to reality:

Total failure of the ten-year forecasts made by “experts”.

Even 10-year forecasts are total failures – can we trust 50-year forecasts?

These “experts” couldn’t even get the forecast for the next 10 years correct. So how are we supposed to take them seriously with their “robust” climate forecasts for the next 20, 50 or 100 years?

The latest idiotic, charlatan quality prediction comes from hockey-stick maker and climate-alarm hustler Dr. Michael Mann, who recently said that Trump’s legacy, beginning in 2024, will be “a charred planet”.

Glaring failure needs to be followed by swift firings

In private industries, where forecasts really count, persons with such a track record of undisputed glaring failure would have been given the boot long ago, and in many cases even sued for outright fraud.

The death spirals and ice-free Arctic predicted for 2013 to 2018 never came to pass. And by ice-free, they implied this would be the case in the later summer year after year.

It’s time for NASA and other climate institutes to clean house and re-staff with serious, competent scientists. As a taxpayer I’m fed up with all the garbage, nonsense and local climate ambulance chasing they’ve been giving us year after year. We the people have the right to get something of value for our money.

And it’s high time we start thinking about suing for fraud.

Scientists: We Lack A ‘Quantitative, Mechanistic Understanding Of How The Ocean Carbon Sink Works’

Recent research has emphasized that “critical mysteries remain” in our ability to quantify or even understand carbon cycle processes as they relate to Earth’s water bodies.  Observational constraints prevent the detection of an anthropogenic signal in ocean carbon uptake trends on decadal timescales (McKinley et al., 2017).  Many new papers even contradict the IPCC-endorsed conclusion that the oceans are a net sink for CO2 emission rather than a net natural source.  

The “We Had No Idea” Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Since the mid-1980s, the Earth’s coasts and land area have been expanding (Donchyts et al., 2016), meaning there is more land mass above sea level today than there was three decades ago.  Sea level rise has not been rapid enough to keep pace with the natural shifts in Earth’s geological processes.

Net growth in global land and soil area could significantly affect the Earth’s carbon budget, especially since “Earth’s soil is releasing roughly nine times more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than all human activities combined” (Carey et al., 2017).

Scientists frequently “discover” terrestrial locations that are new, unaccounted for sources of natural CO2 emission that “we had no idea” about.  They also routinely “discover” terrestrial surfaces that are deemed new CO2 net sinks that they never knew existed (Bastin et al., 2017).

Furthermore, scientists acknowledge that “the heterogeneous and sparsely measured terrestrial biosphere cannot be directly measured” (McKinley et al., 2017).

With new carbon sources and sinks “discovered” on a routine basis, as well as the very limited availability of direct measurements, why should there be any confidence that our land area carbon budget estimates are reliable?

Earth’s Water Bodies: “A Mechanistic Understanding of Carbon Sink Variability Requires Substantial Additional Elucidation”

Scientists have recently acknowledged that “critical mysteries remain” in ocean carbon uptake processes such that we lack a detailed, quantitative, and mechanistic understanding of how the ocean carbon sink works” (McKinley et al., 2017).

Observational constraints do not even allow us to confirm that the alleged ocean carbon sink has been growing in recent decades due to anthropogenic emissions.


McKinley et al., 2017

“That the growth of the partial pressure of CO2 gas in the atmosphere ( pCO2 atm) drives a growing oceanic sink is consistent with our basic understanding that, as the globally averaged atmosphere-to-ocean pCO2 gradient increases, carbon accumulation in the ocean will occur at an increasing rate. This behavior has been illustrated clearly with models forced with only historically observed increases in pCO2 atm and no climate variability or change (Graven et al. 2012, Ciais et al. 2013). Nonetheless, critical mysteries remain and weigh heavily on our ability to quantify relationships between the perturbed global carbon cycle and climate change.”
The current inability to accurately quantify the mean CO2 sink regionally or locally also suggests that present-day observational constraints are inadequate to support a detailed, quantitative, and mechanistic understanding of how the ocean carbon sink works and how it is responding to intensifying climate change. This lack of mechanistic understanding implies that our ability to model (Roy et al. 2011, Ciais et al. 2013, Frolicher et al. 2015, Randerson et al. 2015), and thus to project the future ocean carbon sink, including feedbacks caused by warming and other climate change, is seriously limited.”
“First, substantial uncertainty remains on the mean sink (∼30% of the total flux). Formally, the quantitative estimate of the 1980–1989 sink (−2.0 ± 0.7 Pg C y−1) is not statistically distinguishable from that for 2000–2009 (−2.3 ± 0.7 Pg C y−1). Reducing this uncertainty is absolutely critical to global partitioning of anthropogenic carbon sources and sinks. Each year, the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org) estimates global sources and sinks of carbon, but because the heterogeneous and sparsely measured terrestrial biosphere cannot be directly measured, its flux is estimated by difference from estimated anthropogenic sources and the ocean sink (Le Quer´ e et al. 2015). In these budgets, land use change uncertainty is at least 50% of the mean flux, and uncertainty is growing for emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture (Ciais et al. 2013). Reduction in ocean sink uncertainty could therefore help to compensate from a global budgeting perspective.”
“The sum of the available evidence indicates that variability in the ocean carbon sink is significant and is driven primarily by physical processes of upwelling, convection, and advection. Despite evidence for a growing sink when globally integrated (Khatiwala et al. 2009, 2013; Ciais et al. 2013; DeVries 2014), this variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that it is not yet possible to directly confirm from surface observations that long-term growth in the oceanic sink is occurring.”
“Globally integrated variability fluctuates with ENSO. Yet, at regional scales outside the equatorial Pacific, these modes tend to explain less than 20% of the large-scale variance in pCO2 ocean and CO2 flux (McKinley et al. 2004, 2006; Breeden & McKinley 2016), indicating that much variance remains undescribed. Consistent with the limited amount of variance explained, the mechanistic connections of these modes are not well understood, except in the equatorial Pacific with ENSO. In the North Atlantic, a variety of studies have suggested a connection of the NAO and AMO to pCO2 ocean and CO2 fluxes, but whether these changes occur through convection or advection remains an open question. In the Southern Ocean, the SAM has been linked to pCO2 ocean and CO2 fluxes through impacts on wind-driven ventilation and subduction; however, since the mid-2000s, the clear relationship to SAM has substantially weakened (Fay & McKinley 2013, Landschutzer et al. 2015). In the North Pacific, the relative influence of the PDO ¨ as opposed to ENSO requires further study. Particularly as observations in the high latitudes have become more abundant, evidence has grown that climate modes do not adequately explain carbon cycle variability and that mechanistic understanding of carbon sink variability requires substantial additional elucidation.”
“[T]his CESM-LE analysis further illustrates that variability in CO2 flux is large and sufficient to prevent detection of anthropogenic trends in ocean carbon uptake on decadal timescales.”

The Earth’s Water Bodies: Net CO2 Source Or Sink?

Observational analysis has indicated that water bodies release more of their stored CO2 as they warm and retain more of their stored CO2 as they cool.

This has been borne out in Mauna Loa CO2 records as they relate to a “warm water year” versus a “cold water year”.


Flohn (1982).

The recent increase of the CO2-content of air varies distinctly from year to year, rather independent from the irregular annual increase of global CO2-production from fossil fuel and cement, which has since 1973 decreased from about 4.5 percent to 2.25 percent per year (Rotty 1981). … Indeed the cool upwelling water is not only rich in (anorganic) CO2 but also in nutrients and organisms. (algae) which consume much atmospheric CO2 in organic form, thus reducing the increase in atmospehreic CO2. Conversely the warm water of tropical oceans, with SST near 27°C, is barren, thus leading to a reduction of CO2 uptake by the ocean and greater increase of the CO2. … A crude estimate of these differences is demonstrated by the fact that during the period 1958-1974, the average CO2-increase within five selective years with prevailing cool water only 0.57 ppm/a, while during five years with prevailing warm water it was 1.11 ppm/a.  Thus in a a warm water year, more than one Gt (1015 g) carbon is additionally injected into the atmosphere, in comparison to a cold water year.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has nonetheless claimed the oceans are a net carbon sink  rather than a net source.

Recent research analysis has challenged this conclusion, including several new (2018) published papers.

Astor et al. (2013), for example, found that 72% of the attribution for the increase in CO2 emission for the studied region arose from warming sea temperatures, and thus they concluded “the ocean is primarily a source of CO2 to the atmosphere”.

A Partial List Of Papers Indicating Earth’s Water Bodies Are A Net Source Of CO2

Below is a very non-comprehensive compilation of 12 recently-published papers that challenge the IPCC conclusion that the oceans function as a net sink for CO2.

This list would appear to support the conclusion that “critical mysteries remain” in our ability to quantify or even understand carbon cycle processes as they relate to Earth’s water bodies.


Astor et al., 2013

“Based on these observations, 72% of the increase in fCO2 sea in Cariaco Basin between 1996 and 2008 can be attributed to an increasing temperature trend of surface waters, making this the primary factor controlling fugacity at this location. … An increase/decrease of 1°C is usually followed by an increase/decrease of 16–20 matm of fCO2sea. Thus, the SST increase of 1.3°C between 1996 and 2008 accounted for 16 matm increase in fCO2sea explaining around 72% of the fCO2sea observed variation. This suggests that the changes measured in fCO2 sea were primarily the result of surface-ocean warming in Cariaco Basin. … These observations confirm that this area is a consistent source of CO2 to the atmosphere. The main process controlling the long-term changes in surface fCO2sea at CARIACO was temperature, with net community production playing a secondary role. … At the CARIACO site, the ocean is primarily a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, except during strong upwelling events.”

Ikawa et al., 2013

We estimated that the coastal area off Bodega Bay was likely an overall source of CO2 to the atmosphere based on the following conclusions: (1) the overall CO2 flux estimated from both eddy covariance and pCO2 measurements showed a source of CO2; (2) although the relaxation period during the 2008 measurements were favorable to CO2 uptake, CO2 flux during this period was still a slight source; (3) salinity and SST were found to be good predictors of the CO2 flux for both eddy covariance and pCO2 measurements, and 99% of the historical SST and salinity data available between 1988 and 2011 fell within the range of our observations in May–June 2007, August–September 2008 and November 2010–July~2011, which indicates that our data set was representative of the annual variations in the sea state. Based on the developed relationship between pCO2, SST and salinity, the study area between 1988 and 2011 was estimated to be an annual source of CO2 of ~ 35 mol C m−2 yr−1. The peak monthly CO2 flux of ~ 7 mol C m−2 month−1 accounted for almost 30% of the dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface mixed layer.”

Levy et al., 2013

“Although they are key components of the surface ocean carbon budget, physical processes inducing carbon fluxes across the mixed-layer base, i.e. subduction and obduction, have received much less attention than biological processes. Using a global model analysis of the pre-industrial ocean, physical carbon fluxes are quantified and compared to the other carbon fluxes through the surface mixed-layer, i.e. air-sea CO2 gas exchange and sedimentation of biogenic material. Model-based carbon obduction and subduction are evaluated against independent data-based estimates to the extent that was possible. We find that physical fluxes of DIC [Dissolved Inorganic Carbon] are two orders of magnitude larger than the other carbon fluxes and vary over the globe at smaller spatial scale. At temperate latitudes, the subduction of DIC and to a much lesser extent (<10%) the sinking of particles maintain CO2 undersaturation, whereas DIC is obducted back to the surface in the tropical band (75%) and Southern Ocean (25%). At the global scale, these two large counterbalancing fluxes of DIC [Dissolved Inorganic Carbon] amount to +275.5 PgC y−1 for the supply by obduction and -264.5 PgC y−1 for the removal by subduction [net +11.0 PgC y−1] which is ∼ 3 to 5 times larger than previous estimates.”

Reimer et al., 2013

“The study of air-sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2) in the coastal region is needed to better understand the processes which influence the direction and magnitude of FCO2 and to constrain the global carbon budget. The near-shore region was a weak annual net source of CO2 to the atmosphere (0.043 mol CO2 m-2 y-1); where 91% of the outgassed FCO2 was contributed during the upwelling season.”

Rutherford et al., 2016

“Continental shelves account for a large proportion of global primary production, and potentially a disproportionate fraction of the carbon dioxide (CO2) flux between atmosphere and ocean. The continental shelf pump hypothesis proposes that continental shelves at high latitudes act as net sinks of atmospheric CO2. However, direct measurements on the Scotian Shelf, off eastern Canada, indicate that this shelf region acts as a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere.”

Brown et al., 2015

“Complex oceanic circulation and air–sea interaction make the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETPO) a highly variable source of CO2 to the atmosphere. … Inter-annual variability was observed within the region, with the location of the western extent of the freshpool moving westwards considerably between 2010 and 2014. Previous work within this region suggest that changes in thermocline depth related to ENSO are likely to influence pCO2 within this region. The region is a net contributor to atmospheric CO2, with average sea to air fluxes (over the four years of observations) of 1.6 mmolm−2d−1, with all regions of the ETPO outgassing year-round, except the rainfall diluted Gulf of Panama/Freshpool region.”

Xue et al., 2012

“Air–sea CO2 flux computations indicated that the NYS acted as a net CO2 source with respect to the atmosphere in each season, annually releasing 0.63 ± 0.10 mol C m− 2 to the atmosphere. In combination with the CO2 efflux rate (1.68 ± 0.33 mol C m− 2 yr− 1) reported in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS), we estimate that the entire Yellow Sea, including both the NYS and the SYS, was a net CO2 source at a rate of ~ 1.49 mol C m− 2 yr− 1, annually releasing ~ 6.78 Tg C to the atmosphere (1 Tg = 1012 g).”

Sisma-Ventura et al., 2017

Seasonal pCO2 variability was studied in the Southeast Levantine (SE-Levantine) during 2009–2015 with the aim of quantifying air–sea CO2 fluxes in this ultra-oligotrophic, warm and highly evaporative marginal sea. Mixed layer pCO2 varied significantly between 560 ± 9.0 μatm in August (summer) and 350 ± 8.7 μatm in March (winter). Comparison of pCO2 to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) yielded a strong positive correlation (n = 135, r 2 = 0.94), suggesting that the seasonal variations are the result of a thermodynamic effect on the carbonate system in seawater. Using the coupling between pCO2 and SST, we calculated the mean monthly values and the air-sea fluxes in this region. These calculations indicated that this region is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere over an annual cycle, with an average flux of 845 ± 270 mmol C m2 y−1 (~0.98 Tg C y−1 ).”

Biswas et al., 2018

“The era of global warming and increased emission of greenhouse gases can be marked by the beginning of the industrial age. It is also true that under several conditions, natural ecosystems can be equally responsible for CO2 emission like any other anthropogenic activities which continuously release heat-trapping gases in the process of development. … East Kolkata Wetland (EKW) is an urban or peri-urban wetland located on the outskirts of the Kolkata City which performs multi-facet activities, carbon sink being one of them. The raw waste from the city is naturally treated in this wetland system, however, the aquaculture ponds situated in these wetlands which make use of this waste water for fishery is rarely studied. The present study aims to see whether the aquaculture ponds of EKW complex are acting as a source or a sink. Airwater carbon dioxide (CO2) flux was estimated for three consecutive seasons in a year and it was found that the system is acting as a CO2 source in all the three seasons.”

Wang et al., 2018

“We conducted a free‐water mass balance‐based study to address the rate of metabolism and net carbon exchange for the tidal wetland and estuarine portion of the coastal ocean and the uncertainties associated with this approach were assessed. We measured open water diurnal O2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) dynamics seasonally in a salt marsh‐estuary in Georgia, U.S.A. with a focus on the marsh‐estuary linkage associated with tidal flooding. We observed that the overall estuarine system was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere and coastal ocean and a net sink for oceanic and atmospheric O2.”

Li et al., 2018

“Our calculated CO2 areal fluxes were in the upper-level magnitude of published data, demonstrating the importance of mountainous rivers and streams as a global greenhouse gas source, and urgency for more detailed studies on CO2 degassing, to address a global data gap for these environments. …  Rivers have been widely reported to be supersaturated in carbon dioxide (CO2) with respect to the atmosphere, and are a net source of atmospheric CO2 (Butman and Raymond, 2011; Raymond et al., 2013).”

Rosentreter et al., 2018

“Although the overall status of mangroves [creeks] is net autotrophic (Alongi, 2002), mangrove sediments and waters have been shown to be a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere due to large organic matter inputs from diverse sources such as the mangrove biomass itself, other terrestrial detritus, nutrients from land, microphytobenthos, phytoplankton and the exchange of organic matter with the open ocean (Lekphet et al., 2005; Borges et al., 2005; Bouillon and Boschker, 2006; Kristensen et al., 2008). … The vast majority of mangrove CO2 gas exchange studies found surrounding waters were supersaturated in CO2 with respect to the atmosphere, hence, a net source of CO2.”

Arctic Ice Volume Surges To 3rd Highest In 16 Years…AMM Lowest Since 1972…Maue Hits Mann

Using data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye just tweeted how Arctic sea ice volume has surged to the 3rd highest level in 16 years.

Data source. Danish Meteorological Institute. Chart source: Kirye.

Today, there’s not a climate ambulance chaser to be found in the Arctic. Some ten years ago, a number of leading experts predicted the summertime Arctic would be ice free by now. Boy, did they goof!

Here’s a chart by Kirye showing a year-by-year plot:

Source: Kirye.

Note that over the past decade the trend has been steady, even somewhat upward.

Once reason Arctic ice is expanding is likely in part due to the cold Atlantic, especially the North Atlantic.

AMM second lowest since 1948

Hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach at Twitter presents a chart showing the standardized AMM for the past July: it shows this year to be rather astonishing:

AMM Index 2nd lowest since 1948. Chart: Philip Klotzbach.

Klotzbach writes:

This July’s Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index value was the 2nd lowest July value on record (since 1948), trailing only 1972. A negative AMM tends to be associated with colder tropical N Atlantic SSTs, higher sea level pressures and less active Atlantic seasons.”

Record low relative tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Moreover, days ago Klotzbach also presented another chart depicting July, 2018, relative sea surface temperatures for the Tropical Atlantic (10°N – 25°N):

Chart: Philip Klotzbach.

As the chart shows, in July they reached a record low since measurements began in 1948. In fact there’s never been such a steep drop over an 8-year period.

The cold temperatures will serve to significantly dampen hurricane activity this year, Klotzbach points out.

Michael Mann hyperventilating, expert hints

Lately there’s also been quite a bit of (hysterical, climate-ambulance chasing) talk about the regional heat waves and “extreme” weather that have hit parts of the northern hemisphere. Obviously they’ve been ignoring the huge cold developments at places they used to like focusing on.

At PBS activist/alarmist scientist Michael Mann attributes it to manmade climate change. However, expert meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue differs, tweeting here that the factor behind it all hasn’t been behaving unusual at all:

Interesting, climate scientist Michael Mann attributes the last month of extreme weather to a “slow”, “more wild” and “undulating” jet stream. But that’s typical of “summer” in Northern Hemisphere regardless of climate change.

Maue explains:

Typically this jet stream theory is related to Arctic changes e.g. sea ice depletion. Mixed answers from empirical & modeling studies. This direct causal link from climate change to the actual behavior of jet stream in a given month seems beyond our attribution capabilities.”

And:

However, this thinking is consistent w/null hypothesis that climate change impacts [affects, causes, intensifies] all extreme weather events [always]. These jet stream “slow downs” or blocking events are actually poorly understood features of the climate system.”

 

Business Daily Handelsblatt: German Wind Industry In “Serious Crisis”, Could “Implode”…Consequences “Could Be Fatal”!

About a week ago I reported here how Germany’s “Solar Valley” spectacularly crashed into the wall of reality, turning into an industrial Death Valley, as almost the entire solar components production industry collapsed and left tens of thousands without jobs.

Bleak future for Germany’s wind industry. Image: Wasili Karbe, cropped from video here.

And the media, politicians and activists wonder why the rightwing AfD party is rapidly rising. Maybe people are just getting totally fed up with all the bullshit promises they get fed daily.

Wind industry getting blown away

Now that the German solar industry has crashed and burned out, it looks as if the wind industry is right poised to be next, a leading and highly respected German business daily reports.

The online Handelsblatt here writes that Germany’s wind energy industry now faces “a serious crisis” and “numerous jobs” are at risk.

For a country that claims to be adamant and devoted to fulfilling the conditions of the Paris Accord, it’s indeed quite surprising that the very industry that is supposed to be the big key for all this to happen in Germany is now collapsing.

Prices for wind electricity have plummeted

One reason, the Handelsblatt cites, is the “price deterioration for wind electricity”. The Handelsblatt adds: “The mood in the sector is at a low” and now the German wind market is threatening to implode“.

Huge layoffs taking place

The flagship daily writes how renowned companies like Enercon “are massively slashing jobs”. Enercon plans to lay off 835 workers in Germany alone. Many other companies have made similar layoff announcements, Handelsblatt reports.

The German daily blames a lack of orders from the domestic market, due to “a dramatic price fall” for electricity from the wind. Clearly without the massive subsidies, wind energy shrivels almost instantaneously.

The Handelsblatt also explains how earlier government moves to reform the wind energy feed-in rules have backfired:

The aim of the federal government was to accelerate expansion. Instead, it slowed it down.”

And now thousands of workers will lose their jobs and risk becoming politically disenfranchised. Currently Germany’s flagship political parties, CDU and SPD, are hovering near all time lows in the opinion polls.

143,000 jobs at risk

The situation is bleak, and the German business daily adds that the consequences “could be fatal for the wind branch”, which provides some 143,000 jobs Germany-wide.

The Handelsblatt explains how suppliers to the wind industry will also be hard hit as thousands of jobs are lost and plants closed. Many of the wind companies are located in Northern Germany, a region that is economically weak. Now the situation is about to get worse.

Workers’ tempers flaring

Trade unionists are fuming and demanding social plans and training for new, other jobs. They blame the government for not doing enough.

Enercon head Hans-Dieter Kettwig insists that Germany live up to its obligations to fulfil the Paris Accord Agreement, and so in this way keep the wind industry afloat.

However, investors are running from wind, and some 600 citizens initiatives organized across Germany have sent a loud and clear message: We don’t want the ugly, impractical industrial eyesores around.

No market for volatile wind power

The Handelsblatt concludes that even if the government did step in and re-energize the failing wind industry, it would not be enough to allow the German government to reach its planned, self-imposed 2030 climate targets.

Germany is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If it does nothing, tens of thousands of jobs will join the those that got fried in solar Death Valley, and Germany can kiss any hopes of reaching its Paris targets. But if the government does reactivate subsidies to bring life back into the German wind industry, the power grid infrastructure for more wind parks is just not there and there’s no place to send the power!

A quarter of the wind parks risk coming offline

The Handelsblatt also notes that by 2020 many of Germany’s older wind parks will see their useful lifetime expire, and so up to a quarter of the Germany wind capacity (14 gigawatts) risks being taken offline. This will make reaching the Paris targets all the more difficult.

Automobile industry also getting fed up

Not only the wind branch faces turmoil, but also Germany’s mighty automotive industry.

The London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) here reports that Germany’s powerful Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, is about to pull the plug on stricter CO2 emissions for cars.

Workers fed up with green-socialist hardships

Scholz’s SPD socialist party has fallen to near historical lows in public opinion polls, near 18% – a huge drop from the once hefty 40+% level it picked up in the 1998 election when Gerhard Schroder became Chancellor. Obviously Scholz and the SPD may be finally coming to some of their long-dead political senses.

 

US Instrumental Records Indicate More Heat Waves Occurred In the 1930s Than Today

During the 1930s, when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 100 ppm lower than today (310 ppm vs. 410 ppm), United States heat waves were just as if not more common than recent decades.

Recently there has been much ado about heat waves and the hottest-ever-recorded-temperatures making their rounds in Northern Hemisphere summer.

Yet scientists have determined that heat waves are largely driven by natural variability, not anthropogenic CO2 emissions.


Dole et al., 2011

Was there a basis for anticipating

the 2010 Russian heat wave?

The 2010 summer heat wave in western Russia was extraordinary, with the region experiencing the warmest July since at least 1880 and numerous locations setting all‐time maximum temperature records. This study explores whether early warning could have been provided through knowledge of natural and human‐caused climate forcings.
“The July surface temperatures for the region impacted by the 2010 Russian heat wave shows no significant warming trend over the prior 130‐year period from 1880 to 2009. A linear trend calculation yields a total temperature change over the 130 years of −0.1oC.”
“Model simulations and observational data are used to determine the impact of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions and greenhouse gas concentrations. Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone. Analysis of observations indicate that this heat wave was mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained a strong and long‐lived blocking event, and that similar atmospheric patterns have occurred with prior heat waves in this region. We conclude that the intense 2010 Russian heat wave was mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability. Slowly varying boundary conditions that could have provided predictability and the potential for early warning did not appear to play an appreciable role in this event.”

Shiogama et al., 2013

Attribution of the June–July 2013 Heat

Wave in the Southwestern United States

A severe heat wave occurred in the southwestern United States (US) during June and July 2013. To investigate the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on this event, we generated large ensemble simulations of possible weather using the MIROC5A climate model forced by “historical external forcing agents, sea surface temperature (SST) observations and sea ice (SIC) observations” both with and without human influence. It was suggested that both the anthropogenic warming and an atmospheric circulation regime related to the natural variability of SST and SIC made the heat wave event more likely. On the other hand, no significant human influence was found in atmospheric circulation patterns. These results were robust for two different estimates of anthropogenic signals on SST and SIC.”

These conclusions are consistent with the observation that heat wave events have not been increasing in tandem with the dramatic rise in CO2 emissions over the last century, further rendering the link between human activity and heat waves dubious.

In the United States, for example, where the most extensive long-term instrumental temperature data reside, there has been no significant trends in heat wave frequency since the 1880s, and there has been an overall decline in the number of decadal-scale heat waves since the 1930s.


Peterson et al., 2013

Monitoring and understanding changes in

heat waves, cold waves … in the United States

For the conterminous United States, the highest number of heat waves occurred in the 1930s, with the fewest in the 1960s. The 2001–10 decade was the second highest but well below the 1930s. Regionally, the western regions (including Alaska) had their highest number of heat waves in the 2000s, while the 1930s were dominant in the rest of the country.”
Image Source: (Peterson et al., 2013)

Ruprich-Robert et al., 2018

Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on

North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves

Heat waves are primarily driven by internal atmospheric variability (Schubert et al. 2011, Dole et al. 2011), but their frequency of occurrence and severity can be modulated by atmospheric boundary forcing. Soil moisture deficits have been shown to play an important role in intensifying heat wave severity (Huang and Van den Dool 1993, Fischer et al. 2007, Jia et al. 2016, Donat et al. 2016).”
“Radiative forcing variations, such as those driven by anthropogenic emissions, can also modulate the occurrence of heat waves (e.g., Hansen et al. 2012). Previous studies, based on Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) integrated under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios, concluded that over the US, the number of heat waves would increase during the 21st century (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Diffenbough et al. 2005, Lau and Nath 2012). However, this increasing trend may be modulated by the impacts on land of low frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability (e.g., Schubert et al. 2016, Seager and Ting 2017), such as that associated with the internally-driven component of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; Newman et al. 2016) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV; Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994, Knight et al. 2005). These low frequency SST variations may explain why there has not been any long-term trend of heat waves detected over the US during the 20th century, despite the increase of radiative forcing (Kunkel et al. 1999, Easterling et al. 2000).”

Depietri and McPhearson, 2018

Changing urban risk: 140 years of

climatic hazards in New York City

“The trends based on the NOAA meteorological data show that changes in the length of the heat wave events equal or beyond 3 days of duration are not significant. The mean maximum temperature of the heat wave is also close to stable over the 140-year period of study with no significant increase. … Results obtained from the in-depth analysis of the NYT articles, corresponding to the dates of longer lasting heat wave events (i.e., equal or more than 6 days in duration), show that the number of deaths and people affected in New York City significantly declined. … The change in coping strategies mentioned in the newspapers articles and divided before and after the 1960s illustrates how the advent of air conditioning can be most likely contributed to the significant reduction in mortality due to extreme heat. … Also not significant are the trends in extreme precipitation (beyond 1.75 in. and beyond 3.5 in.) with significant inter-annual and interdecadal variability.”

Images Source: Depietri and McPhearson, 2018

Video Shows Solar Panels On Roof In Netherlands Burning, Destroying Three Apartments

If you own solar panels on your home, you may want to keep an eye on them in hot weather. In Holland, some caught fire and caused “enormous” damage to three apartment units.

297.nl here reports how solar panels on a new apartment building caught fire and destroyed three of the units last Thursday afternoon, after they had apparently overheated.

Hat-tip. Hajo

According to 297.nl, Ffre fighters were called in Vinkeveen after smoke had been detected at a roof. The solar panels “were probably overloaded” by the heat and so “caught fire”. Fortunately nobody was injured, yet the damage was “enormous”.

Toxic fumes

Yesterday I wrote here about how toxic cadmium leaching at landfills from old discarded solar panels could pose a serious environmental threat.

One reader also mentioned that fumes from cadmium containing materials could be a hazard, especially when undergoing intense heat treatments such as welding.

Could fumes from intense fires involving solar panels also pose a risk, especially for fire fighters such as those in Vinkeveen last Thursday? Granted the heat from welding is much higher than that we’d see in a regular fire. The answer appears to be yes. Nick Gromicko at Internachi.org here wrote:

Solar panels and batteries contain toxic chemicals that may be released in a fire and are dangerous if inhaled.”

Toxic stew gets carried off like storm water

What I found a bit peculiar, though no fault of the firefighters, is how the contaminated water that extinguished the flames simply ran down into the rain gutters. The potentially toxic stew then just apparently gets carried off into the storm water runoff system and dumped into the environment.

Stormwater runoff is the fastest growing source of pollution to our local waterways,” says the Deleware Department of Transportation here.

 

Cadmium Green Technologies…VW May Have To Recall 124,000 E-Cars Due To Cadmium Contamination

It appears that green technologies may leave future generations with a heap of toxic waste.

Recently Spiegel here and other German media outlets reported on how VW may be required to recall 124,000 electric cars.

The reason for the potential recall is that the charging unit contains traces of cadmium, a heavy metal element that can be dangerous if humans are exposed to even lower levels over a long period.

Apparently one supplier failed to label that the product that contained the toxic heavy element and did not report it in the material specs. According to Spiegel, VW found 0.008 grams per charging unit in electric and hybrid vehicles produced between 2013 and 2018 in the brands of VW, Audi and Porsche.

Volkswagen claims that there is no risk to consumers because the cadmium containing part is fully enclosed inside a housing and so consumers cannot come into contact with the toxic metal.

However the cadmium content means that the vehicle violates the after-life recycling standards that is imposed on automobiles in Europe.

Green technologies contain toxic cadmium

Not only VW’s electric cars may have a problem with toxic metals, but so do thin-film solar panels.

One recent paper led by Ramos-Ruiz (2017) examined the leaching of cadmium and tellurium from cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar panels under simulated landfill conditions.

According to the paper’s abstract:

Low levels of Cd and Te were solubilized in both batch leaching tests (<8.2% and <3.6% of added Cd and Te, respectively). On the other hand, over the course of 30 days, 73% of the Cd and 21% of the Te were released to the synthetic leachate of a continuous-flow column simulating the acidic landfill phase. The dissolved Cd concentration was 3.24-fold higher than the TCLP limit (1 mg L-1), and 650-fold higher than the maximum contaminant level established by the US-EPA for this metal in drinking water (0.005 mg L-1). In contrast, the release of Cd and Te to the effluent of the continuous-flow column simulating the methanogenic phase of a landfill was negligible.”

Toxic cells not properly disposed of in many countries

Ramos-Ruiz et al remind that due to the presence of hazardous substances like Cd and lead (Pb) in PV technology, solar PV panels have been included in the European Union Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Directive and that many other countries have not yet introduced regulations to prevent the disposal of CdTe solar cells in MSW landfills despite the potential risks posed by PV technology.

This means don’t expect proper disposal in developing countries, especially Africa and Asia.

In the summary, the authors write:

The evidence found in this work indicates that the standardized TCLP and WET leaching tests might underestimate the leaching of Cd and Te from disposing decommissioned CdTe solar panels in landfills.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Skyrockets…Atlantic Surface Cold Surprises Experts

Despite all the hysterical “heat wave” and drought reports being put out to the public by the media, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is in fact not at all that much warmer than the mean since 2000.

Chart source: Dr. Ryan Maue.

According to Dr. Ryan Maue, northern hemisphere temperature anomaly was zero on July 30 and the northern hemisphere land surface anomaly was actually -0.20°C.

Cold hurricane development zone surprises

The Atlantic hurricane development zone off the coast of West Africa saw unusually cold surface temperatures, compelling Dr. Maue to characterize as something he “didn’t think was possible in mid-July” and remarked how the the 26°C isotherm almost reached the 10°N latitude!

Chart source: Dr. Ryan Maue

“Extreme cold ocean signal”

Little wonder that no hurricane development is foreseen out in the Atlantic for the next 10 days or so.

Maue also tweeted in addition: “This extreme cold ocean signal should be investigated as related to the ‘global heat wave.'”

Atlantic record cold “weird”

The development of the tropical Atlantic over the past year shows just how unpredictable weather and climate factors can be. Maue compared 2018 to last year, 2017, adding here: “The tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are 1.5-2.5°C cooler…The magnitude of this local change is equivalent to the flip between El Niño & La Niña in the Pacific. Weird.”

Just recently 40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi reported on at his WeatherBell Daily Update that tropical Atlantic surface temperature had reached a record low.

Whopping rebound in Arctic sea ice volume

Japanese blogger Kirye, who by now you are all getting to know quite well, plotted the recent Arctic sea ice volume data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).

This year the Arctic sea ice volume is showing very impressive growth:

As the chart above depicts, Arctic sea ice volume is near a 15-year high, is more than a 1000 km3 above normal, and over 3000 km3 over the 2012 minimum.

One reason for this is the unusually cold North Atlantic around Greenland, which acts to put the brakes on the summertime Arctic ice melt.

Greenland surface mass budget surges

Greenland itself has been seeing a jaw-dropping surface mass budget increase in its snow and ice sheet:

Massive snowfalls over Greenland have far outweighed melt thus far this summer! Above chart source: DMI.

Greenland’s current mass balance (lower chart, blue curve) was at some 580 gigtonnes, or about 175 gigatonnes above the mean and approximately 500 gigatonnes over the low recorded in 2012.

Arctic temperature this summer, according to the DMI, has also been below normal.

Chasing regional heat

So with all the cold out in the Atlantic and surging Arctic sea ice, growing Greenland snow mass along with the absence of hurricanes, it’s little wonder that global warming climate ambulance chasers are keeping narrowly focused on a few regionally isolated “heat waves” and local droughts.

108 Graphs From 89 New Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warmth

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.  We are a little over halfway through 2018 and already  108 graphs from 89 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.

For the sake of brevity, just 13 (15%) of the 89 new papers are displayed below.

The rest of the non-hockey-stick scientific papers and graphs published thus far in 2018 can be viewed by clicking the link below.

Non-Global Warming Graphs (2018 & 2017)

The list is also readily available on the NoTricksZone sidebar menu for easy reference.


Wang et al., 2018   

The average RAN15-MAAT of 18.4°C over the most recent part of the record (<0.8 ka BP) [the last 800 years BP] overlaps with the range of MAATs, ca. 16.2°C to 18.7°C (av. 17.5°C) measured since 1952 at the nearest meteorological station (Yichang, located ca. 100 km away) and is very close to the av. MAAT of 18°C measured directly outside the cave by a temperature logger between 2004 and 2007 (Hu et al., 2008a). This agreement between reconstructed temperatures and instrumental measurements increases our confidence in the potential of the RAN15 proxy. RAN15-MAATs in HS4 vary from 16.5°C to 20.6°C (av. 19°C), during the last 9 ka BP, and broadly follow a long-term trend of declining temperatures in line with declining solar insolation at 30°N in July (Laskar et al., 2004). … Interestingly, the most recent 0.9 ka BP [900 years BP] is distinguished by greater variability with the highest (20.5°C) and lowest (16.5°C) RAN15-MAATs occurring consecutively at 0.6 ka BP [600 years BP] and 0.5 ka BP [500 years BP].” [Surface temperatures dropped by -4.0°C within ~100 years.]


Badino et al., 2018     

Between ca. 8.4-4 ka cal BP [8,400 to 4,000 years before present], our site [Italian Alps] experienced a mean TJuly of ca. 12.4 °C, i.e. 3.1 °C warmer than today [9.3 °C]. … Between 7400 and 3600 yrs cal BP, an higher-than-today forest line position persisted under favorable growing conditions (i.e. TJuly at ca. 12 °C).”


Haddam et al., 2018

“The MD07-3100 SSST [summer sea surface temperature] reconstruction displays values ranging from 8° to 17°C over the last 21 kyr. Lowest temperatures are recorded at 18 kyr just before the onset of the deglaciation, while the warmest ones are recorded at 15 kyr (15-17°C), from 11 to 10 kyr and from 4.7 to 3 kyr. After 6.5 kyr, SSSTs stay mostly 15°C and are marked by two short-term warming events up to ~18°C, at 4.7 and 3.1 kyr respectively until reaching the present-day summer temperature values at the core location. … Core MD07-3088 displays SSST values ranging from 7 to 18°C over the last 21.4 kyr. The lowest values are observed from 18.3 to 16.5 kyr, while the highest are recorded during the middle to late Holocene (at 5.7, 1.5 and 0.7 kyr respectively). The Early Holocene, from 11.5 kyr to 10 kyr, is characterized by SSST values at around 13°C followed by a progressive 1.5°C decreasing trend until 7.7 kyr. Then a sharp SSST increase culminated at 5.8 kyr (~16°C) before decreasing again at 4.5 kyr. … The UK 37 SST reconstructions for core MD07-3088 show similar trends compared to MAT-SSST displaying the lowest and highly variable temperatures between 21 and 18 kyr. [A] sharp SST increase (~5°C) marks the Early Holocene (~10.4 kyr). Between 10.4 and 6.5 kyr, SST decreased again, followed by a plateau until 3 kyr with mean values of 13°C. Finally, after an abrupt SST rise (~2°C) centered at 1.5 kyr, UK 37 SST decrease until present-day. … The MAT SSST reconstruction of core MD07-3082 shows values ranging from 9°C to 13°C over the last 22 kyr. The lowest temperatures are recorded between 22 and 20.5 kyr, whereas a progressive SSST increase representing the last deglaciation culminates at 14.3 kyr. A two-step SSST lowering of about 3°C is recorded between 14.3 and 12.9 kyr and attributed to the ACR before reaching stable values at 12°C during the Holocene.”


Wu et al., 2018

“Summer temperatures (MJT) at Xingyun Lake in the late glacial were low, increased during the early Holocene, were highest during the middle Holocene, and then decreased during the late Holocene. The range of inferred values [for the Holocene] was 21.0°- 26.5°C. The pollen inferred temperature derived from surface samples (21.2°C), is close to the modern instrumental July temperature in Kunming (22°C), supporting the reliability of reconstructions from down-core pollen assemblages.” [Modern temperatures are 1.0°C above the coldest of the last 14,000 years, and 4.5°C cooler than the warmest temperatures of the last 14,000 years.] 


Zheng et al., 2018

“In this study we present a detailed GDGT data set covering the last 13,000 years from a peat sequence in the Changbai Mountain in NE China. The brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction from Gushantun peat indicates that mean annual air temperatures in NE China during the early Holocene were 5–7°C higher than today.  Furthermore, MAAT records from the Chinese Loess Plateau also suggested temperature maxima 7–9°C higher than modern during the early Holocene (Peterse et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2012; Jia et al., 2013). Consequently, we consider the temperatures obtained using the global peat calibration to be representative of climate in (NE) China. … The highest temperatures occurred between ca. 8 and 6.8 kyr BP, with occasional annual mean temperatures >8.0 ± 4.7°C, compared to the modern-day MAAT of 3°C.”


Ramos-Román et al., 2018


Stelling et al., 2018


Løvstrand Svarva et al., 2018

“A ring-width Pinus sylvestris chronology from Sogndal in western Norway was created, covering the period AD 1240–2008 and allowing for reconstruction of monthly mean July temperatures. This reconstruction is the first of its kind from western Norway and it aims to densify the existing network of temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy series to better understand past temperature variability in the ‘Little Ice Age’ and diminish the spatial uncertainty. Spatial correlation reveals strong agreement with temperatures in southern Norway, especially on the western side of the Scandinavian Mountains. Five prominent cold periods are identified on a decadal timescale, centred on 1480, 1580, 1635, 1709 and 1784 and ‘Little Ice Age’ cooling spanning from 1450 to the early 18th century. High interannual and decadal agreement is found with an independent temperature reconstruction from western Norway, which is based on data from grain harvests and terminal moraines.”


Grieman et al., 2018


Lansner and Pepke Pedersen, 2018

“In locations best sheltered and protected against ocean air influence, the vast majority of thermometers worldwide trends show temperatures in recent decades rather similar to the 1920–1950 period. This indicates that the present-day atmosphere and heat balance over the Earth cannot warm areas – typically valleys – worldwide in good shelter from ocean trends notably more than the atmosphere could in the 1920–1950 period. … [T]he lack of warming in the OAS temperature trends after 1950 should be considered when evaluating the climatic effects of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric trace amounts of greenhouse gasses as well as variations in solar conditions.”


Kullman, 2018 (Scandes, Northern Sweden)

“The present paper reports results from an extensive project aiming at improved understanding of postglacial subalpine/alpine vegetation, treeline, glacier and climate history in the Scandes of northern Sweden. The main methodology is analyses of mega fossil tree remnants, i.e. trunks, roots and cones, recently exposed at the fringe of receding glaciers and snow/ice patches. This approach has a spatial resolution and accuracy, which exceeds any other option for tree cover reconstruction in high-altitude mountain landscapes. …  All recovered tree specimens originate from exceptionally high elevations, about 600-700 m atop of modern treeline positions. … Conservatively drawing on the latter figure and a summer temperature lapse rate of 0.6 °C per 100 m elevation (Laaksonen 1976), could a priori mean that, summer temperatures were at least 4.2 °C warmer than present around 9500 year before present. However, glacio-isostatic land uplift by at least 100 m since that time (Möller 1987; Påsse & Anderson 2005) implies that this figure has to be reduced to 3.6 °C higher than present-day levels, i.e. first decades of the 21st century. Evidently, this was the warmth peak of the Holocene, hitherto. This inference concurs with paleoclimatic reconstructions from Europe and Greenland (Korhola et al. 2002; Bigler et al. 2003; Paus 2013; Luoto et al. 2014; Väliranta et al. 2015).”


McFarlin et al., 2018 (Greenland/Baffin Bay)

“(Greenland)  Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures [Greenland] 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum [10,000 to 8,000 years ago] in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern.”


Bartels et al., 2018  (North Atlantic Region)

“During summer, AW [Atlantic Water] rises up to waterdepths as shallow as ~55 m. … Summer surface temperatures [1955-2012] range between up to 3°C at the northern mouth and <-1.5 °C at the southern mouth of the Hinlopen Strait, while winter surface temperatures vary between 0.5 and <~1.5°C (averaged, 1955–2012; Locarnini et al. 2013). … Increased summer insolation probably amplified the surface melting of the glaciers resulting in enhanced meltwater production and in a very high accumulation of finegrained sediments within the fjord […].  In addition, during the mild early Holocene conditions, summer sea-surface temperatures probably reaching 8–10°C [5 – 9.5°C warmer than 1955-2012] (indicated by M. edulis findings as discussed in Hansen et al. 2011) may have contributed to reducing the number of glaciers that entered the fjord directly as tidewater glaciers and thus causing a diminished IRD input.  … In lake sediments from northwestern Spitsbergen a temperature drop of ~6°C is recorded between c. 7.8 and c. 7 ka [-0.8°C per century], which has been connected to a stronger influence of Arctic Water and expanding sea ice (van der Bilt et al. 2018).”

Thermal Imaging Shows Japan’s Recent Record High Temp An Artefact Of Urban Heat Sinks!

The media like the New York Times here hyperventilated over Japan setting a new all-time record high temperature on Monday.

According to the Times, the temperature hit a high of close to 106 degrees on Monday at a Japanese location outside Tokyo.

Japanese blogger Kirye, who happens to live in Tokyo, informs that temperature reading was recorded at the Kumagaya weather station, some two hours outside of Tokyo.

Photo: Kirye

It turns out there’s a story behind that all-time “record high” and that it likely got a little help.

Thermal imaging shows urban heat sinks

Kirye decided to take the 2-hour commute to Kumagaya. Armed with a SEEK brand thermal imaging attachment for her mobile phone, she made thermal-image photos of the record-setting station.

SEEK thermal imaging attachment for mobile phones.

It turns out that the record temperature that the media like the Times got all excited about has little to do with global warming, but likely a lot more with the urban heat island effect, where nearby asphalt, steel and concrete act as huge summertime heat sinks and so distort the readings of nearby instruments.

What follows is the daytime photo of the entrance to the Kumagaya weather station (All of the following images are the property of Kirye, and may be used only by linking to this post!):

Note in the photo above the tall building to the left and surrounding asphalt street and concrete and steel structures.

Next is a photo Kirye made of the weather station itself:

Then she made a thermal image of the photo and then placed it side by side for comparison:

The white arrows in the images indicate the equipment containing the thermometer. Although the siting of the instruments is not as bad as some we’ve seen documented by Tony Watts, it is far from being optimally sited, located in an urban environment, surrounded by buildings and other heat sinks.

What follows is another view. Note the 55°C hot concrete pad on the ground right near the instruments:

Images by Kirye.

Spider webs choking up the instruments?

Kirye also informed NoTricksZone that an official of Meteorological Office told her that they were cutting the weeds to keep them from growing. They also told her that the device with the thermometer “may have spider webs in its air port” and they “would also check it.”

Influence of urbanization “surely great”

Dr. Kiminori Itoh wrote Kirye: “It seems that the care of the weather station is good, but it certainly seems that there are some influences of neighbors houses” and that “It seems that the population is about 200,000 people, so the influence of urbanization will surely be great.”

Even Dr. Roger Pielke Sr, responded to Kirye’s thermal imaging work, tweeting: ” Thank you for sharing. This is excellent documenting site conditions.”

Yet don’t expect NASA to rush to adjust the temperature downward here, should that station data in fact be used.

By the way, NASA assigned a Brightness Index (BI) of 82 for that station, which is way above the index of 10 or less that is needed to qualify it as a “rural” station. That index shows pretty urban conditions.

It’s the UHI, stupid!

To illustrate the urban heat island (UHI) effect further, Kirye also made thermal images of Tokyo at night. The following was taken 2 days ago at some 28 minutes past midnight:

Note the hot asphalt street surfaces. Kirye tweeted here:

This is a picture I took using my thermography camera in Tokyo’s densely built-up area. This is a known problem that asphalt-paved roads make tropical nights, but alarmists think that is the result of AGW.”

Germans Like Talking “Climate Protection”, Yet Very Few Willing To Walk It

Today I have an anecdote or two about climate protection and the real willingness among Germans to do it.

Over the end of last week and last weekend I was out on a 4-day trek in the Bavarian Alps, one that took me (by foot) to the top of Germany’s highest peak, the Zugspitze (2962 m) before descending into Austria.

Glaciers have all but disappeared high in the Bavarian Alps. Image: P. Gosselin

To get there I took the Deutsche Bundesbahn (German Federal Railway) – also known as the DB – for the 800 km trip from my home in northern Germany to Garmisch-Partenkirchen in the south. Overall the round-trip to and back from Garmisch-Partenkirchen involved making 8 train connections.

Trains in Germany have become unreliable

I remember reading in a travel guide in the late 1980s: “The German Federal Railway is outstanding for its punctuality and general efficiency.” That was then. Today the Deutsche Bahn (DB) is a horror story. I now call it the Blunder-Bahn.

The view today among the public is that the German Federal Railway (DB) is too often unreliable, expensive and poorly operated. And for that reason getting the German public out of their cars and into train to make the country more climate friendly is going to be a tough sell.

Delays, cancellations, missed connections

Here’s the final tally of my DB round-trip: In total I counted 5 delayed trains, 2 missed connections, 2 re-bookings, 1 cancellation, 1 reported incident of fire at the Bremen main station, 1 report of people walking onto the tracks, and hours of total delay. What’s funny is that many people tell me that I was actually lucky and that often things are even much worse.

Avoid the train if you can

Yet, politicians like to insist that people use the DB more often for longer trips instead of using the car – it’s greener and good for the climate, the say. But unless the DB undergoes some sort of miraculous transformation, I say good luck in herding the public from their cars and into public transportation like the DB. Not going to happen.

Even green-minded politicians themselves continue to almost exclusively use cars and planes to get around nationally.

Disappearing glaciers in the Alps

For my 4-day trek in the Alps I joined a group of eight persons organized by a Bavarian tour company that provided us with an experienced guide and simple accommodations in mountain huts.

As we climbed high up in the Alps, it became obvious that the glaciers weren’t what they used to be, and so time and again I had to listen to comments about what climate change was doing to the glaciers in the Alps, and what it shame it was.

Of course the cause of the disappearing glaciers was CO2, and global warming. Four days long I had to hear it. But I kept quiet and just nodded acknowledgement. There was no point in bringing up natural factors and debating it there.

Very few willing to do something for climate protection

But here’s the thing: On the last evening at dinner I asked who actually paid the optional 15-euro “climate contribution” amount (for offsetting) upon booking the tour. Almost everyone said “no”. The company’s tour guide then disclosed that only one single person (from eight) had in fact paid it, meaning only 12.5% were actually willing to do something for the climate.

Although Germans all like talking about protecting the climate and saying they are very much in favor of it, very few are actually willing to do much about it.

Only 2 persons travelled by train

That unwillingness was confirmed by how the hikers travelled to Garmisch-Partenkirchen, near where the hiking began. It turned out only 2 persons travelled in by train (I was one of them), 5 came by automobile, and one person, who several times expressed a concern about climate change, actually flew into Munich from Bremen with a commercial airline (560 km air distance).

What can we gather from all this? Don’t expect the big green climate protection revolution to occur any time soon in Germany. Most like talking about it, but few are willing to walk the talk.

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