There Has Been Just 0.1°C Of Unremarkable ‘Global Warming’ In The Last 50 Years

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I.  According to the IPCC, the true manifestation of “global warming” can almost exclusively (93%) be found in the oceans.  The surface air or atmospheric heat changes amount to just 1% of the “global warming” representation.

Image Source: IPCC (2013)

II.  In the first 2000 meters of the global ocean, there has only been about 0.1°C of “global warming” in the last 50 or 60 years.

Image Source: Levitus et al., 2012

Image Source: ScienceDaily.com

III.  Below that depth (2000 meters), the global ocean has been cooling since the 1990s.

Image Source: Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014

IV.  The overall change in the global oceans during 1994-2013 has amounted to an underwhelming 0.02°C, as there were substantial regions of the global ocean that both warmed and cooled during this period.

Image Source: Wunsch, 2018

V.  The changes in the global ocean temperatures for the 0-1000 meter layer during the last 200 years are so modest they are “below the detection limit”.   There were far more rapid (>2°C/200 years) warming periods that occurred “naturally” during the Holocene.

Image Source: Bova et al., 2016

VI.  The Rosenthal et al. (2013, 2017) claim – touted by Dr. Michael Mann – that the ocean warming during the 1955-2010 period has been the “fastest in 10,000 years” was shamefully derived by statistical malfeasance.  Rosenthal and co-authors directly compared an 8,000-year overall trend to a 55-year anomaly.  Of course temperature is more variable in decadal- rather than millennial-scaling.  The modern rate of change is comparably smaller than most of the last 10,000 years if we were to compare 55-year intervals to 55-year intervals.

Image Source(s): Rosenthal et al., 2013, 2017; Climate Audit

VII.  Even if we were to consider global surface temperature changes, the modern warmth is merely a partial return to the overall climate “normal” of the last two millennia.  The only remarkable aspect of climatic changes in recent centuries has been the anomalous cooling that occurred during the Little Ice Age.

Image Source: PAGES 2k 2015

VIII.  Finally, hemispheric-scale warming of 4-5°C within a span of a few decades – and global sea level rise amounting to 5 meters per century have occurred naturally, or without any changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.  This is the backdrop of natural variability against which the negligible modern temperature changes of 0.05°C per decade and 0.14 of a meter of sea level rise per century must be weighed when considering just how remarkable modern change has been.

And, simply put, there is nothing even remotely remarkable about the recent decades of global warming.

Image Source: Ivanovic et al., 2017 

Image Source(s): Schmidt & Hertzberg, 2011, Hanna et al., 2011, Stenni et al., 2017
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Land Of The Warming Sun: Japan Has Seen Solar Radiation Rise 10% Over Past 60 Years!

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By Pierre Gosselin
and Kirye

Today any warming found anywhere almost always gets blamed on heat supposedly getting trapped by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Moreover, activist scientists insist we ignore all other powerful factors such as solar and oceanic cycles.

In fact these activists have become so extreme that they insist that record cold today is caused by warming.

But as people learned already in the first grade, the earth’s surface warms when the sun shines on it, and tends to cool when clouds obstruct the sun.

Solar radiation at the surface has risen over the past decades

In Japan, the Japanese Meteorology Agency (JMA) has 8 stations that measure solar radiation reaching the surface, and many other for recording temperature.

Data from the 8 stations recording solar radiation are plotted since 1999 (i.e. 20 years) as follows:

Data source: JMA

The black curve with the dashed linear trend line in the middle of the pack is the mean of all 8 stations. As we can see, these 8 stations have seen a clear upward trend since 1999.

Next follows the annual mean temperature chart for the same 8 stations:

Data Source: JMA.

As the chart above shows, the annual mean temperature for the 8 stations has risen modestly over the past 20 years – in line with solar radiation.

The solar radiation data in fact go back to 1961, and we’ve plotted that data as follows, along with the mean annual temperature for the same 8 stations:

Data from JMA

Approx. 10% rise

Since 1961, the linear trend for solar radiation has risen from about 12 MJ/m2 to about 13.4 MJ/m2, which is some 10%. Meanwhile the mean annual temperature has gone from about 14.2°C to 16°C for the 8 stations.

With all the extra solar energy, and in combination with urban development, it should not be a surprise that we’ve seen a warming.

CO2 hardly the driver

If we had seen the same temperature rise without an increase in solar radiation and urban development, and ignoring oceanic factors, then we might assume a possible “greenhouse” effect. But the charts make it clear that Japan’s warming had very little to do with CO2.

So why would solar radiation be increasing? Obviously less cloud cover, which have nothing to do with CO2, but rather with natural solar and oceanic cycles. And no, CO2 does not drive either one.

Oceans cycles dominate over other regions

In the far north, for example, the sun is much weaker and so probably has a lesser role. So other factors such as natural ocean cycles likely have major impacts on mean annual temperature trends and ice melt. Warm oceanic phases release more moisture into the atmosphere which in turn has profound a warming effect in polar regions, for example at polar outpost Spitzbergen.

Ole Humlum, Danish professor emeritus of physical geography at the University of Oslo, believes that the future forecasts in the recently presented IPCC climate report are “not well founded”, and presents a chart that shows that the AMO is clearly a huge driver:

The graph shows temperature fluctuations back to the end of the 19th century. Chart: Skjermdump.

Obviously in most regions globally, other factors are very much behind the warming of the past 150 years, and not CO2.

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FAZ Commentary: Germany Caught Up In Climate Protection Zeal… “Illusion It Can Rescue Planet”

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German flagship daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) publisher Holger Steltzner wrote in an online commentary that the rescue of the global climate” has turned into a religious movement for “a large portion of German society”.

In his commentary, Steltzner remarks that even questioning the hundreds of billions spent thus far with hardly any progress in CO2 reductions to show is enough to get yourself branded as a heretic.

Freedom of dissent under attack

The FAZ publisher also questions the branding skeptics of manmade global warming as “climate deniers”, thus comparing them to Holocaust-deniers. He wonders: “Is this just the thoughtless use of language that abuses the historical break with civilization of the Shoah through banalization?”

Dissent over climate science in Germany is harshly scorned and the media and science community do not tolerate it.

In his commentary Steltzner reminds that man is in fact just one component in the complex climate system where huge natural factors are at play, and that the vast majority of skeptics do not even deny the climatic changes taking place today and how they are just as concerned about the environment as anyone else is.

Communist central planning

The trained business finance specialist and FAZ publisher writes that the German Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) has led to “price distortions, threatened grid stability and the writing off of modern power plants” and is accurately characterized as “eco-central planning”.

Causing more environmental harm than good

And what is even worse is that the Energiewende is likely causing more environmental harm than good. For example forests are being cleared to make way for the industrialization of the country’s once idyllic landscape, destroying biotopes with it. Stelzner adds that many Germans are filling up their cars with fuel that is 10% bio-fuel – which in turn leads to orangutans being shot dead so hat palm oil plantations can operate in places like Indonesia.

And according to Steltzer: “One fifth of Germany’s agricultural land is used for growing bio fuels.”

Another example of Germans trying to ease their conscience is the consumption of tofu in place of meat. He writes: “But weren’t there rainforests in Brazil, where today one soy plantation follows the next?”

Other examples Steltzner cites are avocado plantations in Mexico or the lithium-ion battery “which is supposed to save the climate, and whose raw material extraction in Africa, Russia or South America is devastating entire regions.”

“Illusion, religious zeal”

Steltzner also comments that it seems that environmental organizations have taken a page from the Vatican playbook, where in the past “believers could even acquire letters of indulgence for deceased people in order to wipe out sin penalties in purgatory.”

“Today the purchase of carbon dioxide certificates protects you from being plagued by a bad conscience while shopping in London,” Steltzner comments.

Though he perceives climate change as a real challenge, Steltzner summarizes by calling on Germany to “abandon the illusion that it can rescue the planet” and that “climate protection must not be driven with religious zeal”.

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New Findings From German Scientists Show Changes in Precipitation Over Europe Linked To Solar Activity

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A significant number of scientists say that the Earth’s climate is in large part impacted by solar activity, and less so by trace gas CO2 concentration. German scientists present new findings showing a link between solar activity and precipitation in Europe.
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How Changes on the Sun Influences Rain

A balanced level of precipitation provides the basis for a wide range of economic and social activities in Europe. Particularly agriculture, drinking water supply and inland waterway transport are directly affected. However, the amount of rain fluctuates strongly from year to year. While it may pour torrentially in one year, rain may remain absent for weeks in other year. The population is used to this variability and usually knows how to deal with it.

But what is behind the strong changes? A system, or pure atmospheric noise?

The chance discovery by an agricultural scientist from Münster, Germany, now suggests that in certain months that rain over Germany and other parts of Europe follows a pattern that up to now has remained undetected. As part of agricultural consultation, Ludger Laurenz analyzed decades of rainfall records of the weather station in Münster and noticed a constant up and down that followed an 11-year rhythm – especially in February.

Fig. 1. February precipitation in Germany compared to changes in sunspots. Shown is the optimum positive correlation (r = 0.54) with a solar lag of +17 months. Solar cycles are numbered 14–24. The probability that the correlation r = 0.54 is by chance is less than 0.1% (p < 0.001). Source: Science Direct.com.

After detailed examination it was clear that this rhythm correlated closely with the activity of the sun: the well-documented 11-year sunspot cycle.

Europe data examined

Laurenz next teamed up with two colleagues to examine the extent to which the observed pattern from Münster is reproducible in other parts of Germany and Europe, and whether the phenomenon also exists for the other months of the year. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke from the HTW University of Applied Sciences in Saarland gathered the precipitation data collected in Europe since the beginning of the 20th century. The physicist emeritus then developed a computer algorithm to determine the similarity of changes in rainfall and solar activity. All 39 European countries and every one of the 12 months of the year were quantified over a total of 115 years using mathematical correlations.

Fig. 3. Map showing the 1901–2015 most positive correlation coefficients for February precipitation and sunspots on a country-by-country basis. Pearson r values from Table 1. All maps: Lags are simplified and generally fall within ±10 months of the statistically calculated value (Table S1). Source: Science Direct.com.

In order to include possible delay effects, the data series of rain and sunspots were systematically checked for shifts. For this purpose, the time series were gradually shifted in time against each other like combs and the respective change of the correlation measure was noted. The multidimensional data obtained in this way were evaluated for systematic trends by geoscientist Sebastian Lüning and visualized cartographically. Lüning is associated with the Swiss Institute of Hydrography, Geoecology and Climate Sciences (IFHGK) and is specialized in the research of solar climate effects.

February northern Europe precipitation linked to solar activity

The mapped out results show that the link between February precipitation and solar activity originally discovered in Münster is valid for large parts of Central and Northern Europe and has very high statistical significance there. Towards southern Europe, however, the correlation weakens significantly.

4-year shift for February Central Europe precipitation

The statistical investigation was also able to demonstrate systematic phase shifts across the continent. In Germany and neighboring countries, February precipitation was particularly low when the sun was very strong four years earlier. The delay seems to be due to the slow deep circulation of the Atlantic, as earlier work suggests. On the basis of the statistically-empirically determined correlation, February 2018 in Germany with particularly low precipitation can now also be explained, which followed a particularly high intensity peak of solar activity at the beginning of 2014.

Solar signal found in other months

Similar relationships between rainfall and solar activity have been observed in a weakened way in some other months, especially in April, June and July, which account for a large part of the vegetation period in Central Europe. The result was a complex picture of the interplay of sun and rain in Europe, which showed clear trends over 1000 km and varied strongly from month to month.

Mechanism remains unclear

The study thus confirms the concept of a solar participation in the European hydroclimatic development, which had already been indicated by a whole series of local case studies of other authors. However, the exact mechanism by which the solar signal influences precipitation is still largely unclear and requires further research.

Ocean cycles also at play

The solar precipitation effect, which has now been mapped out across Europe for the first time, opens up new possibilities for improved medium-term precipitation forecasts. Agriculture in particular, but also for defense against extreme weather damage in connection with heavy rainfall and droughts, could benefit from this.

The next step in refining the forecasting methodology is a more precise quantification of the effects of Atlantic Ocean cycles, which also play an important role in rainfall, especially in Western Europe.

Original publication:

Laurenz, L., H.-J. Lüdecke, S. Lüning (2019): Influence of solar activity on European rainfall. J. Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185: 29-42, doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012

The pdf version can be downloaded free of charge at the following link until early March: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1YXWZ4sIlkiVhv

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke
Hochschule HTW des Saarlandes
moluedecke@t-online.de

Dr. habil. Sebastian Lüning
Institut für Hydrographie, Geoökologie und Klimawissenschaften (IFHGK), www.ifhgk.org
luening@ifhgk.org
Tel. 00351-961470494

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Analysis Finds Oceans Have Become LESS ‘Acidic’ With Rising CO2, Challenging The ‘Acidification’ Narrative

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A modest long-term (1800s-present) declining trend in ocean pH values predominantly occurred prior to 1930, or before anthropogenic CO2 emissions began rising precipitously. Since 1930, seawater pH trends have risen slightly, meaning sharply rising CO2 has been coincident with less, not more, ocean “acidification”.

Image Source (lower graph): Wei et al., 2015

Is “acidification” occurring too rapidly for species to adapt?

Scientists (Wei et al., 2015) estimate that the ocean’s global mean surface pH may have declined (i.e., become less alkaline and thus more “acidic”) by -0.07 to -0.08 in the last 200 years — from ~8.12 during pre-industrial times to 8.04 to 8.05 today.

It is commonly claimed that this long-term decline in pH, or “acidification”, is occurring far too rapidly for the oceanic biosphere to adapt.  Consequently, there are alarmist claims that the pH changes in the last few hundred years are so extreme they will lead to a mass extinction event.

Image Source: Wei et al., 2015

A pH change of -0.07-0.08 over 200 years is an overall long-term pH change rate of about -0.0003 per year.

By way of comparison, from one season to the next, or over the course of less than 6 monthspH levels naturally change by ±0.15 pH units, or twice the overall rate of the last 200 years

On a per-decade scale, the changes are even more pronounced.  Oceanic pH values naturally fluctuate up and down by up to 0.6 U within a span of a decade, with an overall range between 7.66 and 8.40.  This is decadal rate of pH change is larger than the overall 200-year trend (0.07-0.08) by a factor of 8.

Image Source: Wei et al., 2015

If the oceanic biosphere was incapable of adapting to the modern rate of long-term change (-0.07-0.08/200 years), or to the frequently-realized seawater “acidic” values of 7.7 or 7.8, one would think this vulnerability would have been observed at some point in the last 200 years.

Reconsidering the “acidification” starting point

Many of the highly cited pH trend studies choose a starting point from the recent decades rather than from a long-term record.  Dore et al. (2009), for example, chose 1988.

Using recent decades has the effect of illustrating that rapid pH decline, or “acidification”, coincides with dramatically rising CO2 emissions.  This is the intended representation, of course, because it is assumed that we humans are responsible for “acidifying” the oceans.

Image Source: Wei et al., 2015

What if we choose 1930 as the “acidification” starting point?

If CO2 emissions predominantly drive trends in oceanic pH, the correlation between pH decline and an explosive rise in emissions could presumably be established beginning around the 1930s, or when CO2 emissions began to rise dramatically.

Interestingly, an entirely different pattern emerges if we use 1930 rather than more recent decades as the starting point for pH trend detection.

Namely, the long-term decline in pH can mostly be found in the decades prior to the 1930s, or when steep increases in CO2 emissions were not occurring.

The post-1930s period even suggests a slightly rising pH trend.

In other words, after CO2 emissions began rising precipitously in the 1930s, the oceans have become lessacidic”.

This determination would appear to undermine the claim that human activity, and not natural variation, is what drives the long-term declining trend (0.07 to 0.08) in oceanic pH.

Image(s) Source (lower graph): Wei et al., 2015
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World Leading Ocean Expert Calls Sea Level Rise Claims By Climate Scientists “Anti-Scientific Nonsense”

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World leading sea level expert Prof. em. Nils Axel Mörner presents some stark examples that show how the IPCC and climate activists are wildly exaggerating their claims of rapid sea level rise.
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12th IKEK: Nils Axel Mörner – the Kattegat and others among test areas for sea level

Prof. em. Nils Axel Mörner auf der 12. IKEK München, Bild EIKE

By EIKE

Mörner studied the Kattegat Sea between Denmark and Sweden. In this region sea level has not increased as announced by climate alarmists, but instead decreased. The actual oceanic increase in the past 125 years can be estimated as modest at 0.9 mm per year.  

Stockholm’s tide record is the second longest in Europe; the mean long-term change in sea level is a decline of 3.8 mm per year. The country itself is rising 4.9 mm per year due to the post-glacial rise of the continental landmass. The difference of 1.1 mm per year is the true oceanic component.

Nova Scotia: sea level 700mm higher back in 16th century

In addition to European locations, Mörner also looks at the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. He has just returned from the Ouvéa area off Nova Scotia. In the 17th century, the sea level was 70 cm higher, as confirmed by immutable geomorphological facts.

At that time, the “Little Ice Age” with larger glaciers prevailed in the Alps (as Professor Patzelt showed). How could more liquid water be present at the equatorial area at the same time?

 

Video of the lecture (in English!)  by Prof. em. Axel Mörner at the 12th IKEK in Munich.

The phenomenon thus proves that the IPCC is wrong.

In warm times, the sea level does not rise globally. The reason for this is the so-called rotational eustasy of the planet: In the north, the volume of water increases a bit, at the equator it remains about the same.

Sea level at Fiji Islands, Maldives, Goa has dropped since 1950s

Also other islands or coastal regions show a sea level change, such as the island Ouvéa, also the Fiji Islands, the Maldives and Goa in India. Here, too, the oceans sank around 1700, rose around 1800 and sank again after 1950.  

Solar driven

Global sea level changes followed the moon’s tidal super cycles, which in turn stem from the large solar cycles. The sun also affects the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, which brings warmth to Western and Northern Europe. At maximum solar activity, the Gulf Stream flows northeast and sea level rises. During a solar minimum, the Gulf Stream flows from east to southeast and sea level drops to the north.

“CO2 no factor”

Mörner emphasized that the solar cycles and gravity of our neighboring planets, the solar wind and the moon, determined our climate and our environment. The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect has no place.

IPCC climate science in part “anti-scientific nonsense”

With his presentation in Munich, the speaker wanted to send a message to the world climate conference COP24 in Katowice / Poland, which took place shortly after the EIKE conference. That message is: “Some of their statements fall into the area of ​​anti-scientific nonsense. The polar ice does not melt so quickly and the sea level does not rise in a short time. ”

Mörner recommends observing physical laws and the evidence from nature for the procedure of determining sea level.

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Comprehensive Study: Glacier Melt Estimates In Tropics Of South America OVERSTATED BY 10 TIMES!

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Geographers from FAU investigating glaciers in South America in more detail than ever

If you compare historical photos of glaciers with those taken more recently, you can see that where there was formerly ice there is now very often nothing but rock. Geographers, however, are less interested in the area covered by a glacier, and more interested in its mass. Researchers from FAU have now investigated all glacial areas in South America in more detail than ever before, from the tropical areas of Venezuela to the subpolar regions of Tierra del Fuego.

Their two major findings are that the highest rate of mass loss is in the Patagonian ice sheet, and that the glaciers in the tropics have lost considerably less mass than previously projected, although this is not the good news which it might appear at first sight. The researchers’ findings have been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.*

Surveying glaciers is nothing new. There are two methods which are used particularly often. In the first method, researchers take several measurements directly at a glacier and project the results for entire regions. This is particularly problematic when it comes to large glacial areas such as the large ice fields in Patagonia, as barely any in situ measurements are available for these areas.

The other option is to take gravimetric measurements using satellites. Scientists base their measurements on the fact that gravity on Earth changes depending not only on the location but also over time. It is influenced by aspects such as the composition of the Earth’s surface, mountain ranges, movements in the core, plate movements – and, of interest for our context, when glaciers lose mass. One disadvantage of this method is that when only small areas are covered by glaciers, as is the case in the South American tropics, the satellite only receives a weak signal and the measurement is significantly less accurate.

One method for measuring all glaciers

Geographers from FAU specialising in both climatology and remote sensing and spatial information, led by Prof. Dr. Matthias Braun and Dr. Tobias Sauter, also used satellite data for surveying South American glaciers, but they focused on calculating elevation levels instead of basing their results on gravimetric measurements. Two radar satellites from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) have been orbiting the Earth since 2010. The aim of the TanDEM-X-mission was to obtain a three dimensional image of the Earth, which is not only of a consistent quality but also more accurate than anything that has gone before.

Differences in elevation were recorded down to the last metre. The researchers from FAU used data collected between 2011 and 2015 and compared them with measurements from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission of 2000. Using a complex method which involved making various corrections and calculating possible error margins, they compared the data to calculate the changes in elevation in the glacial regions of South America, thus obtaining an accurate picture of the changes in glacial mass.

Their method was unusual in that they were able to use one uniform method to record all glacial areas in the region. In addition, the method even provided accurate data for individual glaciers. Comparing the measurements from both space missions allowed the researchers to gain detailed insights into the situation throughout South America. For the first time, researchers succeeded in analysing the large Patagonian ice fields separately from the surrounding, smaller glaciers.

Entire glaciers have vanished

The greatest loss of mass, both relatively and in comparison to the other South American glaciers, was found in both inland ice fields in Patagonia, two regions with an area of approximately 18,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to the Rhineland-Palatinate region in Germany.

Slower rate of mass loss in tropics

The second important fact revealed by the research is that the mass of glaciers in the tropical regions of South America – in Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia – is changing at a considerably slower rate than previously supposed. Projections to date calculated that the 2900 glaciers there were losing approximately 6 gigatonnes of mass per year. The geographers from FAU have discovered, however, that they are only losing 0.55 gigatonnes per year, approximately 10 percent of the estimates to date.

This result is important, as glaciers are an important source of water in the dry period: when no rain falls and the temperatures reach their highest level, glacier melt water is used as drinking water, for irrigation and hydro power. People in these regions therefore have to know to what extent the glaciers are changing, and need quantitative data not only with respect to area but also in terms of their volume and mass.

In some areas such as the Central Andes in Chile and Argentina or the Cordillera Real in Bolivia, experts are even of the opinion that the maximum amount of water available from glacial melt has already been exceeded. This is an indication that glaciers are irrevocably on the retreat and will vanish entirely in the foreseeable future. In future, these areas will have less water available during the dry season.

The survey, however, also revealed that some areas have hardly experienced any change at all, such as the Andes in northern Chile and Argentina as well as in southern Bolivia at the latitude of the Atacama desert.

The researchers from Erlangen now hope that their study will be included in the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). After all, melted glacier ice is contributing to the rise in sea levels and the huge ice fields in Patagonia are particularly relevant. Glaciers are also used as an indicator for climate change in other respects as well.

The geographers from FAU now want to extend their analyses to cover other regions and investigate how the situation develops over a longer period of time. At present, the global terrain model from the TanDEM-X mission is currently being updated. Researchers hope to be able to benefit from these data in future. They are also relying on further national missions which are in the pipeline such as the Tandem-L satellites, which would make it possible for such measurements to be repeated more frequently.

* https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0375-7

Further information:

Prof. Dr. Matthias Braun
Phone + 49 9131 85-22015
matthias.h.braun@fau.de

=========================================================
Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

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A Plane That Landed On Greenland’s Surface In 1942 Was Found In 2018…Buried Under 104 Meters Of Ice

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Is Greenland’s Ice Disappearing?

Image Source: AVweb, August 2018 

I. Emergency Landing In 1942

In July, 1942, a squadron of six U.S. P-38 fighter planes and two B-17 bombers embarked on a flight mission to England when they were suddenly bombarded by severe weather.

All 8 planes were consequently forced to emergency-land on the southeastern corner of the Greenland ice sheet, about 29 kilometers from the coastal edge.

While all 25 of the occupants were ultimately rescued, the 8 planes had to be abandoned atop the surface of Greenland as it existed in 1942.  Eventually the planes were buried beneath decades of ice and snow accumulation.

II. The first “Lost Squadron” plane rescued in 1992…buried under 268 feet of ice

Over the course of the next several decades, nostalgic interest in a search-and-recovery effort grew.  After all, the Lost Squadron planes were effectively new when they were abandoned and, if preserved well enough, they could potentially be restored to flying condition .

The first several attempts to locate the planes during the 1980s were unsuccessful, as the search crews had underestimated how deep beneath the surface the planes were after 40-plus years of ice sheet growth.  It ultimately took 12 tries before the first plane was spotted.

In 1988 the search crews were finally able to pinpoint the location of a P-38 that was ultimately named “Glacier Girl”.   She was buried 260 feet (79.2 meters) below the surface of the ice sheet as it existed in 1988.

By 1992 the 260-foot depth had grown to 268 feet (81.7 meters), and “Glacier Girl” was slowly (piece-by-piece) retrieved from the ice.

III. Another Lost Squadron plane was found in mid-2018…buried under 340 feet of ice

Accompanied by far less fanfare, another Lost Squadron P-38 was located in 2018 using drone technology.

This plane was found buried under another 72 feet – 21.9 meters – of ice relative to the 1992 recovery site for the first P-38 rescue (340 feet versus 268 feet).

IV. Potential implications and Greenland observations

Greenland’s interior ice is melting more slowly now than 95% of the last 9,000 years

Image Source: MacGregor et al., 2016 and AAAS press release

• An anthropogenic influence on Greenland’s ice melt is too small to be detected

Image Source: Haine, 2016

• The Greenland Ice Sheet surface area is larger now than 95% of the last 8,000 years

Image Source: Briner et al., 2016

• Greenland hasn’t warmed overall since the 1920s and 1930s

Image Source: Hanna et al., 2011
The annual whole [Greenland] ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming.”   (Box et al., 2009)

• Greenland ice melt has added just 1.5 cm to sea levels since 1900 – with no contribution during 1940-2000

Image Source: Fettweis et al ., 2017

• Greenland has been cooling during the last decade

“Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. … Warming trends observed from 1986–2016 across the ice-free Greenland is mainly related to warming in the 1990’s. The most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) shows contrasting trends across Greenland, and if any general trend it is mostly a cooling. The MODIS dataset provides a unique detailed picture of spatiotemporally distributed changes during the last 15 years. … Figure 3 shows that on an annual basis, less than 36% of the ice-free Greenland has experienced a significant trend and, if any, a cooling is observed during the last 15 years (<0.15 °C change per year).” (Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2018)

For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling.  The Summit temperatures are well correlated with southwest coastal records (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, and Qaqortoq).” (Kobashi et al., 2017)

• Greenland was much warmer than today throughout most of the last 10,000 years

Image Source: Kobashi et al., 2017

“Greenland temperature reached the Holocene thermal maximum with the warmest decades occurring during the Holocene (2.9 °C warmer than the recent decades) at 7960 ± 30 years B.P.”  (Kobashi et al., 2017)

Image Source: McFarlin et al., 2018
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Japan’s Northern Island Of Hokkaido Shock-Freezes…”Coldest Air Mass Ever Recorded”!

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Record cold temperatures, transportation disrupted, fire extinguishers freeze as “coldest air mass ever” sweeps over Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido.

By Kirye

 

 

 

 

As the Asahi Shimbun here reports, Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido has been gripped by a deep freeze with the temperature plunging to -31.8°C in Rikubetsu on February 9.

Chart: Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA)

Three other observation stations in Hokkaido “also reported temperatures below minus 30 degrees,” the Japanese online daily reports.

10 stations set new record lows

In total yesterday, February 9, in Hokkaido Prefecture, 10 stations saw their temperatures reach record lows:

Image from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA)

Although some media outlets are claiming the record cold is due to a phenomenon that is often implied as being new and caused by global warming, it is in reality what people simply used to call a plain old ‘cold wave’.

The NOAA reports here that the “polar vortex” is in fact nothing new at all, and that the term had been used already 166 years ago, back in 1853!

Global warming causing “coldest ever” air masses?

The Japan Times here reported that it was “the coldest air mass ever recorded” to hit Hokkaido”.

How can global warming be causing record cold air masses? Air masses are supposed to be getting warmer, and not colder. Climate scientists are desperately scrambling to explain the inconvenient cold events.

Referring to the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA), The Japan Times have written: “The agency said a cold air mass with a temperature of minus 24.4, the lowest seen since it began compiling such data in 1957, was hovering about 1,500 meters above Sapporo, which saw the mercury drop to minus 12.5 in the morning.”

Frozen fire extinguishers at nuclear power plant!

The cold is so severe that it even froze a fire extinguisher system at a nuclear power plant in Hokkaido, “due to a record cold weather,” reported the NHK World here.

Meanwhile further south in Tokyo, snow fell yesterday. The forecast is calling for cold conditions to grip Japan in the days ahead.
============================================
Pierre contributed to this article.

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Coal [Non]Exit Debacle…Germany’s Coal Burning Could Rise Around 16% By 2030!

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Some critics have slammed Germany’s decision to exit coal power by the year 2038. For example the Wall Street Journal here called Germany’s energy policy “the world’s dumbest” (it is).

Yet, we need to remind ourselves that many in Germany had been calling for an exit within 10 years, or even sooner. For political leaders, however, shutting down what today is still Germany’s backbone of power supply so quickly would mean economic and political suicide. So the decision to push everything off to 2038 was yet again the German government punting the ball down the field, and leaving the messy issue to the next generation of leaders.

The government is not taking action; it’s avoiding it.

Keep in mind that a lot can happen between now and 2038. It’s entirely reasonable to expect that other forms of cleaner energy sources will be developed – 20 years is a long time. And climate can change rapidly, as a number of scientists are warning of cooling ahead.

Under the bottom line, it’s comforting that the Germans have given themselves the extra time, especially amid so many claiming that green technology is already available. Obviously it really isn’t.

World Future Council sees more coal burning

Even hardcore green energy groups are realizing they’ve been had and are beginning to voice their dissatisfaction with the new government-set 2038 coal exit target, for example the Hamburg-based, planet-rescuing World Future Council, Because of the deal, it expects coal CO2 emissions to climb by 16%!

What follows is their recent press release (my emphasis added):
===============================================

Despite capacity reductions, coal-fired power generation and CO2 emissions can increase by up to 16 percent

Hamburg, February 7, 2019 – Dr. Matthias Kroll, Chief Economist of the Hamburg-based World Future Council, has recalculated the effects of the so-called “coal compromise” on the climate, with the result that coal-fired power generation could even increase by 2030 despite capacity reductions. The reason for this is the increase in the base load on the remaining coal-fired power plants due to the nuclear phase-out.

“The improvements suggested in the coal compromise for climate protection on the way to the 1.5°C target are a deceptive package,” says Kroll.  The main criticism of the coal compromise to date has been the very late phase-out date of 2038.

However, the current compromise conceals yet another problem that has been lost in the debate so far: “For climate protection, it is not decisive how much power plant capacity is shut down, but how much electricity generation with coal actually decreases,” Kroll continues. “In the current model, I see a bottom line increase in electricity production from coal of around 16 percent. The situation is similar with CO2 emissions. Germany must take its foot off the brake and significantly push ahead with the expansion of renewable energies, the associated storage systems (‘power to gas’) and the construction of new natural gas power plants. Otherwise CO2 emissions will increase and not decrease.”

Although about 12 GW of the currently existing 42 GW coal-fired power plant are to be shut down by the end of 2022, it has to be expected that the planned remaining 15 GW of lignite and stone coal each will produce more electricity and CO2 emissions than today. The reason for this is the significantly increasing utilisation of the remaining coal-fired power plants, as it must be assumed that they will take over the last 9.5 GW of nuclear base load that will be eliminated.

While coal-fired power plants today are only used very irregularly because they are increasingly being forced out of the grid by wind and photovoltaic power, they can largely run at their maximum load. In terms of figures, this will amount to an increase of up to 16 percent in coal-fired electricity and the associated CO2 emissions compared with 2018. To ensure that the essential phase-out of nuclear power does not lead to a permanent increase in coal-fired power generation, the remaining 30 GW of coal-fired power from 2022 must be further reduced rapidly.

“It is questionable how Germany intends to achieve the 1.5°C target it has contractually agreed to in the Paris Agreement if CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation are even higher than current levels for another decade, even though the reduction to zero is necessary,” criticises Kroll.

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Wall Street Journal Comments German Government Running “World’s Dumbest Energy Policy”

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The German language Epoch Times here reports how the entire editorial board at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) commented how the “German government under Angela Merkel was running the “world’s dumbest energy policy”.

“Devastating comment”

After having wasted billions of euros on renewable energies, saddling consumers with ultra high power prices, shutting down nuclear power plants, Germany has just decided to shut down its coal power plants by the year 2038. The Journal writes on the move to exit coal:

Having wasted uncountable billions of euros on renewables and inflicted some of Europe’s highest energy prices on German households and businesses, now Berlin is promising to kill the one reliable power source Germany has left.”

The Epoch Times calls the Wall Street Journal commentary “a devastating comment on the conduct of political decision-makers in a country that is not geopolitically considered an explicit opponent of the US.”

Even exceeds Europe’s “stupid environmental policy”

The Epoch Times, along with the Wall Street Journal, also says that “although stupid environmental policy is routine throughout Europe, with reference to the fuel taxes of French President Emmanuel Macron, who had triggered the protests of the yellow vests, the looming German renunciation of coal, however, would easily exceed even this standard.”

Last reliable source will be shut down

“After the leadership in Berlin had already wasted countless billions of euros on renewable energies and had imposed the highest energy prices on European households and companies, Germany was now also offering the prospect of the end for the only reliable source of energy left to the country,” The Epoch Times wrote.

The Epoch Times also questions Berlin’s move with regards to pollution, writing that if the government complains that it is unduly polluting the environment, then it must ask itself why it had been “making the wrong political decisions for more than a decade” since it decided to burn more coal in lieu of the nuclear power plants which were shut down in 2011 in the wake of the Fukushima accident.

Green folly, dangerously dependent

And as Germany pushes to complete its Nord Stream 2 monster pipeline for delivering gas from Russia, the WSJ believes that Germany is dangerously making itself energy dependent on foreign countries. Just the compensation that has to be paid to coal power plants operators for the early shutdown will cost consumers 40 billon euros, the Epoch Times writes.

The WSJ does not think Chancellor Merkel will come to her senses, but hopes her successor Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer will. The WSJ adds:

Her successor will have the opportunity to name Ms Merkel’s green folly, and Germany’s troubled electricity customers should hope that this is the case.” 

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Oyster Evidence Affirms Sea Levels Were Up To 3.8 Meters Higher Than Today 6000 Years Ago

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According to a new paper (Oliver and Terry, 2019) published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, oyster remains have been found encrusted in rock 2.5 to 3.8 meters above the present mean sea level.  This fossilized evidence dates to ~6000 to years ago, a period when the Earth’s surface temperatures were 4-6°C warmer than they are today.

Image(s) Source: Oliver and Terry, 2019

The evidence provided by Oliver and Terry (2019) will be added the to growing list of more than 80 scientific papers indicating sea levels from locations throughout the world were meters higher than they are today just a few thousand years ago.

80+ Papers: Mid-Holocene Sea Levels

Were Multiple Meters Higher Than Today


Oliver and Terry, 2019

Relative sea-level highstands in Thailand since the

Mid-Holocene based on 14C rock oyster chronology

• “~6000 cal yr B.P. old oysters can be found from between 3.8 ± 0.1 m to 2.5 ± 0.1 m above present day mean sea level. … Dead (fossil) oysters were collected from between 1 and 3 m above the centre of the live oyster band in a more sheltered cleft inside the notch. The oldest sample with an age of 5270–4950 cal yr B.P. was collected at an elevation of 3.01 ± 0.1 m above the apex of the notch. The ages decrease with elevation down to 920–710 cal yr B.P. at 1.03 m.”
• “In all the sites, the 14C age of the dead oysters inside the notches increases with increasing elevation above present day MSL. Clearly, relative sea level was 2 to 3 m higher than present between 6000 and 3000 B.P. and has steadily fallen since.”
• “There was a progressive warming from ~13,500 years ago to a peak at 6500 ± 200 years ago followed by a cooling of −2.6 °C to the present day.”
• “Generally, there is a ~1 m wide live oyster band (with modern 14C ages) in the apex of the sea notch that corresponds to the present day MSL. 14C ages of dead oysters are systematically older higher up the sea notch and reach a maximum 14C cal yr B.P. age of 6513–6390 cal yr B.P. at an elevation of 2.5 ± 0.1 m above present day MSL in an exposed site at West Railay Beach. Consequently, relative sea levels must have been higher in the mid Holocene than they are now.”
• “[A]t a more sheltered site inside a bay on Ko Pha Nak, the highest preserved oyster shell is at 3.2 ± 0.1 m above MSL and has a younger 14C calibrated age of 5845–5605 cal yr B.P. Furthermore, oysters from 3.8 ± 0.1 m above present day MSL, encrusted on a stalactite in a cave at West Railay Beach has a 14C calibrated age of 6176–6041 cal yr B.P.”

Image(s) Source: Oliver and Terry, 2019
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Japan Winter Temperatures, Typhoons Both Defy Alarmist Predictions As 30-Year Trends Go The Other Way

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By Kirye

 

 

 

 

 

Since the global warming scare started some 30 years ago, Japan’s winters in fact have have not been warming – but rather many areas show the opposite is happening: cooling.

January in Japan no warming in over 30 years

For Japan as a whole, the entire country has not seen any rise in January mean temperature over the past 30 years, according to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA):

As the chart above shows, if anything, Japan mean January temperature has been falling a bit, thus contrdicting the warming claims of climate alarmists.

Cooling Kyoto

January in Kyoto has been cooling over the past 30 years, as the following chart shows, even as atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen from about 350 ppm back in 1985 to over 410 ppm today:

No trend at Naze in 33 years

The same is true for the south Japan station of Naze:

Naze has seen slight January cooling over the 33 years – not warming!

Wintry Hokkaido stays that way

In northern Japan, the month of January has also gotten slightly colder over the past 30 years, as shown by measurements taken at the Suttsu station in Hokkaido:

 

Overall, January today in Suttsu is at about the same level as it was more than 100 years ago.

Same is true at Okinawa

Moving far south to the Nago station in Okinawa, here as well we see that January mean tenmperatures have been cooling, and not warming like climate activists insisted it would.

Japan refuses to cooperate with the global warming “science”:

By now many people should be awaiting an explanation as to why the trend has behaved the opposite of what has been predicted for decades by CO2 global warming scientists.

Cooling near Nagasaki

The trend for January at the Sasebo station near Nagasaki over the past 32 years has also seen a steady linear decline:

How can anyone in the Japanese media be speaking about rapid warming over the recent years? Much of the climate news in Japan are of poor quality, unfortunately, as they continue to make people believe it’s warming when it is in fact not.

Japan’s winters have seen no trend

Okay, the charts show trends for the month of January, the dead of winter. So what about the complete winter in Japan from December through February? Here as well we see no warming at all across Japan:

The untampered data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows the Japan’s winters have not warmed at all in over three decades.

Typhoons have also become less frequent

In general many other factors have not cooperated with the many predictions made by global warming scientists. One important example is typhoons, which we were told would become more frequent and intense. But here’s the typhoon data from the JMA:

Also there’s been no real trend in the number of typhoon landfalls hitting Japan.

In summary, lots of hype about warming in Japan, yet the data haven’t shown it in over 3 decades.

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Leading German Geologist Calls Notion Of “Climate Tipping Points” Scientific Hype By Opportunistic Scientists

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The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) posted a video of prominent German geologist Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, who in a presentation late last year in Munich called the notion of CO2-induced climate tipping points scientifically outlandish.

He also called the prospect of the Sahara spreading into Europe preposterous.

EIKE recently wrote an article on the presentation and posted the presentation (in German). The article follows in English (headings added):
==========================================

The Green Past of the Sahara

Stefan Kröpelin geographer and geologist who, after his training at the Free University of Berlin, has been working at the Institute for Prehistory and Early History in Cologne since 1995. He is one of the most renowned expedition researchers in the field of “Climate, Cultural, and Landscape Change in Arid Africa,” and is best known for his scientific travels to Sudan and Chad. In his career he has undertaken about 60 expeditions, which have been presented in numerous popular science TV programs.

Sahara once a paradise

In his lecture, Dr. Kröpelin first gave an overview of the Eastern Sahara located in Sudan, Chad, Libya and Egypt. The region is the driest place on planet Earth today. But thanks to natural climate change over the millennia, this has not always been the case. On the contrary: if you think of the Hungarian researcher László Almásy, known from the book and film “The English Patient”, who discovered “swimmers” on cave paintings in Eastern Sahara as early as the 1930s, you know that the area was once a paradise.

Explorer Kröpelin was able to confirm Almásy’s assumptions through his work – and even add an almost unbelievable fact.

Higher temperatures 7500 years ago

The paradisiacal humid conditions in the east of the Sahara prevailed between about 8,500 and 5,300 B.C., i.e. after the last Ice Age and at the beginning of the Neolithic, when higher temperatures led to frequent rainfalls, and thus raised the groundwater level considerably, and allowed surface waters and rich vegetation.

As a result of the gradual drying up of the region over the last 7,000 years, the human inhabitants migrated south to present-day Sudan or later to Egypt, where they founded the Earth’s first advanced culture on the Nile with its fertile floods.

Video of Dr. Stefan’s lecture on the slow drying up of the Sahara on the occasion of the 12th IKEK in Düsseldorf in November, 2018

Cooling means a drying Sahara

The slow drying out of the Sahara was caused by a successive cooling of the climate, analogous to the formation of savannahs through warming. Interestingly, today’s Sahara desert does not have the dimensions it had during the maximum of the last ice age about 20,000 years ago. At that time, the desert extended hundreds of kilometres further south into today’s Sahel zone.

Lake sediment, cave paintings unlock secrets of the past

How could Dr. Kröpelin reconstruct climate events in North Africa over the millennia? What natural climate indicators does the region offer?

One of the best sources of climate data are the deposits at the bottom of the largest lake in the Sahara, Lake Yoa in the oasis of Ounianga in north-eastern Chad, from which as much water evaporates every day as the city of Cologne consumes every day.

The loss is compensated by the abundant fossil groundwater resources. But it is not only hidden data deep in the ground that are suitable for precisely reconstructing the past of the climate in the last decades – the human settlement of the region and its legacies are also a reliable climate indicator. Particularly impressive in this context are the aforementioned cave paintings, which were able to withstand the sandstorms and the heat surprisingly well. These prehistoric works of art were not made in a short time, but over thousands of years. The depicted objects like the floating people or cattle herds stand for different phases of the colonization.

“Tipping Point” catastrophe theory contradicted

The proven gradualness of climate change at that time contradicts the “Tipping Point” catastrophe theory, which predicts a “climate collapse” with drastic changes in the environment in only one human generation. In fact, Kröpelin’s research shows that climate change in the Sahara has been so slow that people have hardly noticed anything about it during their lifetime.

Stefan Kröpelin also refers in this context to the political use of the current climate catastrophe theory, which is even misused for mass immigration policy.

The exponential increase in the world population over the next 50 years is the real problem facing our civilization.

A Sahara reconstructed timeline follows:

Cropped from video here posted above. EIKE

 

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Scientists: W. Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier Is NOT Melting Due To A Progressively Warming Climate

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Antarctica Has Not Warmed In Over A Century

Natural Variability – Not Humans – Drives Ice Melt

The most recent mass media contribution to the canon of climate alarmism referenced a study claiming that “climate change” (i.e., human-caused deep ocean warming) was responsible for the Amundsen Sea’s (West Antarctica) “rapid melting” of the Thwaites Glacier.

Image Source: New York Times

A few months ago, however, scientists (Jenkins et al., 2018) reported that the Amundsen Sea sector – where Thwaites glacier is locatedhas been in a cooling phase since 2009-’11.

Furthermore, the ocean in this region warms and cools in accordance with decadal-scale cycles.  Consequently, the authors conclude that the “accelerated mass loss from the Amundsen Sea sector of the [West Antarctic Ice Sheet, WAIS] has not resulted from progressive ocean warming or unstable ice retreat.”

This would appear to contradict the claim that rapidly and linearly rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are what lies behind the ocean warming and/or ice sheet melt for this region.

Image Source: Jenkins et al., 2018

Antarctic ice melt, temperature, sea ice…driven by natural variability

It is well documented in the scientific literature that climatic trends in and around Antarctica are predominantly controlled by natural mechanisms and internal variability, not greenhouse gas emissions.

A newly published paper (Scott et al., 2019), for example, identifies the forcing mechanisms behind the ice melt in the Amundsen Sea region of the WAIS during 1979-2017.  Neither anthropogenic influences or greenhouse gas concentrations are mentioned anywhere in the paper as factors in Antarctic ice melt trends.

“Understanding the drivers of surface melting in West Antarctica is crucial for understanding future ice loss and global sea level rise. This study identifies atmospheric drivers of surface melt on West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet margins and relationships with tropical Pacific and high-latitude climate forcing using multidecadal reanalysis and satellite datasets. Physical drivers of ice melt are diagnosed by comparing satellite-observed melt patterns to anomalies of reanalysis near-surface air temperature, winds, and satellite-derived cloud cover, radiative fluxes, and sea ice concentration based on an Antarctic summer synoptic climatology spanning 1979–2017. Summer warming in West Antarctica is favored by Amundsen Sea (AS) blocking activity and a negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), which both correlate with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extensive melt events on the Ross–Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are linked to persistent, intense AS blocking anticyclones, which force intrusions of marine air over the ice sheet. Surface melting is primarily driven by enhanced downwelling longwave radiation from clouds and a warm, moist atmosphere and by turbulent mixing of sensible heat to the surface by föhn winds. Since the late 1990s, concurrent with ocean-driven WAIS mass loss, summer surface melt occurrence has increased from the Amundsen Sea Embayment to the eastern Ross Ice Shelf. We link this change to increasing anticyclonic advection of marine air into West Antarctica, amplified by increasing air–sea fluxes associated with declining sea ice concentration in the coastal Ross–Amundsen Seas.”   (Scott et al., 2019)

In a comprehensive analysis of the surface climate in and around Antarctica during 1979-2014 – including the cooling Southern Ocean – 25 scientists (Jones et al., 2016) assert that climate models predicated on anthropogenic forcing “are not compatible with the observed trends”, and that “natural variability overwhelms the forced [anthropogenic] response in the observations”.

Image Source: Jones et al., 2016

Scientists: Antarctica hasn’t warmed in over a century

Recent climate trends for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have not offset the long-term cooling trend.  The region was actually much warmer than modern for most of the last 2000 years.

Image Source: Stenni et al., 2017

In fact, recent paleoclimate evidence suggests (Stenni et al., 2017) that “no continent-scale warming of Antarctica is evident in the last century.”

Image Source: Stenni et al., 2017

The Antarctic Peninsula warmed rapidly, but the rest of the continent cooled over the last century

An earlier (2008) continent-wide climate data compilation revealed that although models of anthropogenic forcing simulated a climate warming of +0.75°C,  Antarctica as a whole warmed by “only 0.2°C” over the last century.

Most of the continent has cooled since the early 1900s.

The Antarctic Peninsula, which warmed by “several degrees”, drove the net continental temperature trend into positive territory, compensating for the cooling throughout East Antarctica.

Image Source: Newton, 2008

The Antarctic Peninsula has rapidly (-0.47°C per decade) cooled since the late 1990s

As mentioned, the Antarctic Peninsula was the only anomalously warming sector of an otherwise-cooling Antarctic continent over the last several decades to century.   It warmed by a rapid +0.32°C per decade from 1979-1997.

Then, beginning in about 1998-’99, the Peninsula began cooling even more rapidly than it had been warming. By 2014, all of the warming since 1979 had been offset, revealing an overall non-warming trend (Turner et al., 2016).

Image Source: Turner et al., 2016

The northern-most portion of the Antarctic Peninsula cooled by -1.98°C between 2008-2014.

Image Source: Fernandoy et al., 2018

The Larsen Ice Shelf station has been cooling at a rate of -1.8°C per decade since 1995.

Image Source: Mörner et al., 2018

Surface mass balance gains for Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2009

“Two small glaciers on James Ross Island, the north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, experienced surface mass gain between 2009 and 2015 as revealed by field measurements. A positive cumulative surface mass balance of 0.57 ± 0.67 and 0.11 ± 0.37 m w.e. was observed during the 2009–2015 period on Whisky Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively. …  Ambrožová and Láska (2016) reported a significant decrease (0.03–0.15°C a−1 [-0.3 to -1.5°C per decade]) in the temperature along the AP [Antarctic Peninsula] over the 2005–15 period with the most prominent cooling at the Bibby Hill station on JRI [James Ross Island]. … The cumulative mass gain of the glaciers around the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula] indicates a regional change from a predominantly negative surface mass balance in the first decade of the 21st century to a positive balance over the 2009–15 period. The change in the glacier mass balance follows a significant decrease in the warming rates reported from the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula] since the end of the 20th century. The mass gain is also consistent with the regional trend of climate cooling on the eastern side of the AP [Antarctic Peninsula].” (Engel et al., 2018)

Image Source: Engel et al., 2018

Eastern and southern Antarctica have also been cooling during the last decade(s)

Image Source: Herbacek et al., 2018

Image Source: Ramesh and Soni, 2018

The overall non-warming/cooling trend for Antarctica may extend back to the 1960s and 1970s

Image Source: Goursaud et al., 2018

Image Source: Doran et al., 2002

An alternative mechanism underlying the Thwaite Glacier’s recent retreat

It is widely accepted that geothermal heat flux (volcanic activity) beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet – and Thwaites Glacier – is a “critical factor” in the active melting for the region.

Image Source: Schroeder et al., 2014

Image Source: Dziadek et al., 2019

An attribution reassessment is needed

Considering the pervasive modeling failures in trend simulation for Antarctica, perhaps there should be a reassessment of the factors and mechanisms underpinning the continent’s variable climate and ice sheet melt.

The assumption that humans are driving the changes in Antarctica is not compatible with observations.

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Vortices Of Controversy…Experts Slam Polar Vortex-Global Warming Claim, Suggest Public Trickery

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Cold in the USA: That’s got to be climate change, right?

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated/edited in the English by P Gosselin)

“Climate communicators” always have the same “right” interpretation for every weather event: It’s climate change! A warm, especially dry summer in Germany? Climate change! We reported on this just recently.

Polar vortex frequency declining

Now comes a cold air blast from the Arctic deep into the south of the USA, and that’s climate change too. Here one TV station quoted a press agency report of the German DPA. Professor Stefan Rahmstorf provided an explanation. Who could be better at it? To check up on it, we first looked at the NOAA, which maybe should know the best. They report the polar vortex often weakens during the winter and the term “vortex” was in fact used in the USA back in 1853. But Rahmstorf now claims this is happening more and more often:

“ …this has happened multiple times more often over the past decade, according to a data evaluation by the PIK.“

We wanted to check up on this, and came across a statistic from Roy Spencer and John Christy of the University of Huntsville in Alabama:

Fig. 1: The frequency of “vortex” events in the USA. Source.

No increase, and also no significant decrease. The linear trend in Fig. 1 is rather an expression of randomness. We find no confirmation of the “PIK data evaluation”.

January, 2019 Arctic not warm

What does Rahmstorf explain to us further?

Several studies suggest that this has to do with the dwindling sea ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, especially on the Barents-Kara Sea.”

Rahmstorf is not changing the scene unnoticed: What he means is a suspected phenomenon: a warmer Arctic with less ice in winter produces colder temperatures over the northern continents.

But that was certainly not the case in January 2019:

Fig. 2: Temperatures at the core of the Arctic north above 80°N for January, 2019 (red) and the long-term mean (green). Completely normal! Source here.

Another evaluation for the entire Arctic in the period in question finds: Temperature deviation for 66-90°N is 0.0. So it turns out Rahmstorf has no reliable climate explanation for the event between 20 and 29 January 2019. What he has to offer us are controversial studies that detect a change in circulation due to a warmer Arctic with less ice, with the result that it tends to become cooler over the continents in winter. There are papers that suspect this, and there are papers that reject it and which go unmentioned by Rahmstorf, of course.

“Made up” explanation

Under no circumstances is the state of research suitable for attributing the current “vortex” in the USA, or anywhere else, to climate change. It has always happened, and it isn’t becoming more frequent. That’s weather. Aa a result one meteorologist reacted rather harshly:

Thus the PIK has definitely gone off base among the scientific community and is only cherry picking. Freely made up that there would be an increase in frequency of weak polar vortices. This has always happened almost every winter.”

Prominent Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann is quite annoyed by the nonsense. So are we. And we ask ourselves why is so much unproven and controversial material used to explain every current event in the world? Are real arguments like global warming at a rate of about 0.125 ° C / decade since 1950 (as to Cowtan & Way) too weak?

Huge PR campaign can’t sell it

Is climate change something that requires a high advertising effort to sell?

These PR campaigns, however, turn out to be baseless: every advertisement that runs too often only ends up annoying the consumer. The background is not science, as the consumer is supposed to believe. Instead, political ambitions are playing the main role. This is truly thin ice!

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Climate Foundation Calls Belgian Manifesto By “3400 Academics” Alarmist, Pseudoacademic And Even Refuted By IPCC

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What follows is translation of a guest contribution from the Climate Intelligence Foundation in response to a manifesto by 3400 Belgian academics who in lock-step claim “it is five to twelve”. According to them, draconian measures are necessary to save the world.

Hat-tip Dr. Hans Labohm

It’s an as outstanding rebuttal as you’ll ever find, and it follows below in English (NTZ has added the main-point titles in bold).
====================================

Terrifying climate propaganda

Irresponsible misuse of models

Science differs from religion because theoretical claims have to be verified with observations. If model results can predict measurements in advance (which is quite different than explaining them afterwards!) then you can say the model validated and then apply it in practice. But if that is not the case, then you cannot sell the model as truth and using it in practice is irresponsible.

Far more complicated than simple, linear CO2 relationship

The current climate model (‘IPCC model’) systematically yields highly overstated predictions compared to measurements and can therefore not be used to form climate policy – especially if that policy results in extremely high costs and destabilises vital parts of the energy infrastructure.
We are not just saying that. Already some of the most renowned scientists have preceded us (e.g. Freeman Dyson, Frederic Seitz, Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg), including Nobel Prize winners (e.g. Ivar Giaever and Robert Laughlin). They also argue that the earth’s climate is far too complicated to be explained by a simple one-dimensional CO2 relationship.

Modern warming in large part natural

In the following we will briefly comment on the claims made by the Belgian signatories.

1. The earth is warming up. Worldwide, the average temperature has already risen by about 1°C (compared to the average temperature between 1850 and 1900).”

Yes, the earth is warming up. But that is business as usual. Earth’s history tells us that climate change has always happened. The geological archive shows very nicely that hot and cold periods have alternated regularly. This happened with sudden jerks and jolts, two steps forward and then one step backward.

We really don’t have to go back to the great ice ages. Archaeological information shows that around the year 1000 we knew the Medieval Warmth Period. Back then there was plenty of agriculture in Greenland! And in the golden age we were in the middle of the Little Ice Age. The great Dutch and Belgian paintings show beautiful ice scenes from that cold period. From the end of that small ice age, around 1850, we entered a warming period, of course again with fits and starts. Nothing special. These are the natural movements in the climate system. Soon the temperature will drop again. Ecosystems have always moved along successfully and will do so again now.

“Scientific evidence inconclusive…unsustainable”

2. Almost 100% of the observed warming is due to human activities.”

This certainty is shocking. This is indeed what the IPCC believes. However, the scientific evidence is far from conclusive. It is also highly unlikely that the natural movements would have stopped abruptly after 1850. And that since that time suddenly only man would be responsible for that warming.
But what caused the Little Ice Age, when glaciers expanded en masse? And what caused the Warm Medieval Period? As long as climate science does not have a good answer to such questions, modesty suits us.

Even today nobody understands exactly what the complex interactions are between the sun’s radiation, the dynamic cloud cover, the inhomogeneous earth surface, the energy-rich currents and the water vapour-rich atmosphere. Nor do we know exactly how much human CO2 contributes to global warming. The great certainty that the IPCC wants the world to believe that man is responsible is scientifically unsustainable.

Alarmists the true “climate deniers”…”have been seduced”

3. Already with the current warming of ‘only’ 1°C we are confronted with increasing and stronger weather extremes such as heat waves, droughts and floods. As global warming continues, extremes will become more common. Moreover, when global warming rises above 2 degrees, the chance that global warming will strengthen itself increases enormously. A kind of snowball effect that makes it even warmer.”

The authors and signatories of the letter appear here as the true climate deniers. Downright astonishing. Because the last three relevant IPCC reports (SREX, AR5 and SR15) clearly state that there are no discernible trends in droughts and floods. So there are no more or less than before, and they have not become worse or less bad. The IPCC does state that heat waves are more common in certain areas. But this is also tentative because in the US for example the dust bowl period of the 1930s still dominates all record books.

The fact that the authors allow themselves to be seduced by such exaggerations, which even contradict various IPCC reports, and suggests that their critical scientific view has been clouded by their activism.

CO2 as control knob is delusion

4. Limiting climate change and preventing self-reinforcing feedbacks is highly necessary. To limit global warming to 2 degrees, CO2 emissions must be reduced by about 25% by 2030 and by about 85% by 2050. To stay below 1.5°C, emissions must even be zero net by 2050. In order to be able to achieve this now, far-reaching and structural measures must be taken immediately – NOW. The longer we wait to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the greater the efforts will the needed to keep the warming (well below) 2 degrees.

The success of the climate movement is a simple message: “Human CO2 is the cause of global warming; global warming is causing a catastrophe; if we turn the CO2 knob, everything will be fine again.” But for the above claims there is no proof. How did we get these detailed certainties? The general public is rightly asking the climate movement for hard evidence. There is convincing evidence, also published scientifically, that climate models are hypersensitive to CO2 and therefore generate too much warming. Any future warming by CO2 will therefore be much more gradual than the models indicate. But the forces of nature can also cause a turnaround to cooling.

Bizarre and worrying demands

Since CO2 reduction is very expensive at the moment, and sun, wind and biomass are far from sufficient to supply modern societies with energy, we will have to work on future technologies with which an (ideologically desired) CO2 reduction might become affordable. Nuclear energy is the most likely option. Strangely enough, Belgium plans to close all its nuclear power plants and replace them with gas power plants. This cannot be explained in the context of CO2 policy, and it is bizarre and worrying that nothing is said about this in the open letter. If the authors are really serious about CO2, they should be making a massive plea for keeping the existing nuclear power plants open for as long as possible.

Paris allows emissions to keep rising

5. Current policy measures fall far short of what is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions are still increasing worldwide, so we are not emitting less, but more and more every year. The opposite of what needs to be done. Moreover, the proposed policy measures are still miles from what is necessary to drastically reduce emissions, and that applies at local, Belgian, European and global levels. With the proposals currently on the table, the world is heading for more than 3°C warming by the end of the century. That may sound little, but the consequences are enormous.”

The fact that CO2 emissions are still increasing worldwide was simply agreed on in the much applauded Paris Climate Agreement. All countries were there. China and India can and will continue to emit more CO2 until 2030.

Gigantic costs, with literally no impact

If we still insist on CO2 reduction for ideological reasons, we should not close the relatively clean power plants in Western Europe, but the many polluting power plants in Asia. China, for example, is going to greatly expand its polluting coal-fired power stations and turn them into an export product.

What we in the Netherlands and Belgium contribute to CO2 is miniscule, but reduction will cost many hundreds of billions of euros. For example, if we in the Netherlands achieve the target of 49% CO2 reduction by 2030 (more than the authors of the open letter propose), it would result in 0.0003 degrees less warming by 2100 – negligible and immeasurable. And if Belgium closes its nuclear power plants, there would be no other choice but to rely on fossil fuels. That is the reality!

0.05°C less warming for $1 TRILLION per year

6. Action against climate change is much more economically advantageous than not taking action. In the longer term, the costs of inaction are much higher than the investments to reduce emissions. Doing nothing leads to enormous costs, including damage from floods, storms and forest fires. Extreme droughts and resulting food shortages can cause social unrest in many countries and lead to global migration. The transition to an emission-free society, on the other hand, is economically much more advantageous and even creates additional jobs. Moreover, the direct subsidies for fossil fuels worldwide amount to more than 500 billion dollars annually. This amount, or even only part of it, would, for example, facilitate the transition to a carbon-neutral society.”

These are highly dubious claims. The claim that doing nothing will entail much higher costs is but very questionable. The cure can be worse than the disease and we believe that current climate policy is a typical example of this. Bjorn Lomborg calculated, for example, that if all countries honour their voluntary commitments under the Paris Agreement, the temperature effect in 2100 will be only 0.05 degrees Celsius. This is also negligible. According to Lomborg, the policy is already costing USD 1000 to 2000 billion a year, mainly as a result of reduced economic growth. This is a major problem for developing countries. They are still working hard to bring their citizens up to the same level of prosperity as we have in the West.

Green economy in fact leads to net job losses

The suggestions that climate policy will create extra jobs are also misleading. Of course, you create jobs if you put hundreds of billions of public money into the energy transition. However, the question is how many jobs are lost elsewhere and what the net effect is. Experience in Germany and Spain shows that green jobs are extremely expensive jobs and therefore harm the economy. So it is scientifically all very embarrassing what is being claimed here.

Confused academics

7. Knowledge and technologies needed to drastically reduce CO2 emissions already exist. It now requires foremost the political courage to take the necessary structural measures and to fully commit to the transition to a society without greenhouse gas emissions. After all, the transition will only be possible if, among other things, the supply of renewable energy is rapidly and strongly expanded, buildings become power stations instead of energy guzzlers, mobility is reformed, deforestation is prevented here and elsewhere and trees are planted where possible, and if the emissions caused by the enormous livestock population are also tackled. These investments also offer the opportunity for positive change in many other areas. For example, cleaner air and sufficient food and drinkable water for everyone.”

Here climate change and environmental issues are completely mixed up. The confusion caused by these two problems is considerable. Many people who say they are very concerned about climate change actually mean that they are very concerned about the natural environment, such as soot and fine particles in the air and plastics in the oceans. From a historical perspective, the great forces of nature seem to play a prominent role in the change of the earth’s climate, yet in the deterioration of the environment, man is undoubtedly dominant.

Two final comments from the Foundation:

Lost scientific independence “extremely worrying”

a) The greatest value of a scientist is his or her independence. We see that scientists are becoming increasingly financially dependent on government and industry. Political and commercial interests have become an increasingly important part of research. As a result, many scientists have lost their independence. The Belgian manifesto makes this painfully clear once again. That is extremely worrying. Are there still independent teachers to be found today?

The history of science tells us time and again that scientific progress has never gained from consensus, but from stubborn scientists who dared to question existing concepts. It is in the interests of science and humanity that these dissidents do not become silenced, as is currently the case with the IPCC, the public media and commercial lobby groups.

Skepticism is the basis of all scientific progress. People who no longer doubt and are convinced that they are right, do not ask questions but argue. That’s why we aren’t making any headway in the climate debate.

Child being misused by alarmists

b). In Belgium, the climate movement has now also started using children for their ideological cause. A rather peculiar strategy. What children need to learn is to take a critical look at the facts. So what is happening now goes against everything that education should stand for. We are increasingly seeing children being abused to achieve goals.

Who remembers that washed ashore refugee boy on the beach, an image that was frequently used by refugee organisations, or the asylum boy who had a microphone pushed under his nose with TV crew chairman Dijkhoff, or the crying Lili and Howick in the NOS news, etc.? Anyone who wants to be proved right by putting children at the front of their causes is morally reprehensible. Teachers who work in this manner should be deeply ashamed.

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Veteran Swiss Meteorologist Slams Media For “Making It Up”…NOAA: Polar Vortex Term “Nothing New…Appeared In 1853”

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Charismatic Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann posted a comment at Twitter where he wondered what flagship German ZDF television was thinking when its evening news announced the polar vortex was some sort of new phenomenon arising from global warming.

Recently in the media we’ve been hearing a lot about the junk science that a warmer Arctic is somehow miraculously producing extreme cold over vast neighboring continents.

NOAA: “Polar vortex nothing new […] term appeared in 1853”

In a tweet in response to the ZDF’s evening news (Today’s Journal), Kachelmann, a former meteorologist for flagship ARD television, wrote:

Everything is like it always has been. via has invented the relationship of the polar vortex split with climate change. The American weather services writes the opposite: ‘It has happened often…’ Why make it up? Isn’t the real threat already enough? Why, ?

Here Kachelmann is referring to a site from the NOAA itself. What follows is the content of the NOAA page:

The science behind the polar vortex.

The science behind the polar vortex.(NOAA)Download

The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth’s North and South poles. The term vortex refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air close to the poles (left globe). Often during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the polar vortex will become less stable and expand, sending cold Arctic air southward over the United States with the jet stream (right globe). The polar vortex is nothing new  – in fact, it’s thought that the term first appeared in an 1853 issue of E. Littell’s Living Age.”

Links to climate change questionable

In response to Kachelmann’s tweet, meteorology expert Dr. Ryan Maue tweeted that the science was far from a consensus on the subject, and that polar vortex splits have been around “for decades”:

We have observed polar vortex splits for decades. They are not new nor caused by climate change. The links to climate change are still controversial & uncertain because climate models do not show an increase. Active area of research. No consensus.”

Cold due to warming, insists top German socialist

Despite the reminders from the authorities, the nuttiness surrounding polar vortices has been widely spread by German politicians as well, for example German Socialist SPD leader Karl Lauterbach, who recently tweeted:

Record cold in winter, record heat in summer. Climate change cannot be denied. The fact that it is now so visible will hopefully change world politics. That will cost massive amounts of money. But later it will be much more expensive. THE generational task.”

Herr Lauterbach, who has no meteorological background, is probably just parroting talking points handed to him by the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute, which is desperate to keep the alarmism among the public at a high level.

Kachelmann, who thinks climate change is a serious issue, responded to Lauterbach’s bizarre claim:

There was no record heat in summer and there is no record cold in winter, and no one with any sense ascribes the weather situation in the USA to climate change. See also the American weather service, which knows that this happens “often”: https://www.noaa.gov/infographic/science-behind-polar-vortex …”

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265 Papers Published Since 2017 Subvert The Claim That Post-1850s Warmth Has Been Unusual, Global

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Modern Climate Warming Is Not

Dangerous, Unprecedented, Globally Pervasive

Image Source: Lansner and Pepke Pedersen, 2018

Image Source: ScienceDaily.com

The Hockey Stick Fails 

The  PAGES 2k Consortium (2013) attempted to compile an unprecedented-looking hockey-stick-shaped Holocene reconstruction.  Instead, it has withered under scrutiny.

Analysis of the PAGES 2k data clearly shows that  20th century warmth is merely a partial return to the normal temperatures that characterized most of the Late Holocene.  The only aspect of the last two millennia that is climatically anomalous may be the centuries of Little Ice Age cooling.

A valiant effort by Marcott et al. (2013) to recast 73 previously-published non-hockey stick Holocene reconstructions as supporting an unprecedented 20th century “uptick” was debunked by Marcott’s own 2011 doctoral thesis.

The non-statistically robust and non-globally representative temperature graph concocted by Marcott and colleagues also does not stand up to even the most rudimentary peer analysis.

Not only that, but they were long ago exposed for having substituted their own dates rather than using published results.

The Explosive Growth of the Non-Hockey Stick 

In the last 25 months, 265 peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published containing documented evidence (i.e., graphs primarily) that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly-cooling Earth followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped recent uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.

253 Non-Global Warming Papers (2017 & 2018)

Indeed, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 150 years.  Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time.

And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few decades to hundreds to thousands of years.

Image Source: Purich et al., 2018, Kretschmer et al., 2017
“The mean slope implies a change over 20 years [1994-2013] of 0.0213 ± 0.0014 °C” 

Image Source: Wunsch, 2018

Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly provided documentation that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability.

The compilation of non-global warming evidence continues in 2019.  Thirteen papers have been added to the list thus far this year.


Zhang et al., 2019

“In core 31003, the SST record shows a distinctly anti-phase relationship with that of core 38002 over the last millennium. For instance, from the MWP to LIA, SST values increased from ∼17.0 ± 0.3°C to ∼19.1 ± 0.6°C in the northern core 38002 but decreased from ∼24.3 ± 0.4°C to ∼23.5 ± 0.3°C in the southern coastal core 31003. Since 1850 AD, the SST record in core 31003 elevated within the range of 24.3 ± 0.4°C, similar to values during the MWP, but decreased gradually to 18.0°C in core 38002, in line with the SST trends at two additional locations from the YSWC [Yellow Sea Warm Current] pathway as reported by He et al. (2014).”


Tonno et al., 2019

“In North Europe, changes in early Holocene climate were rather intense, starting with low temperatures at the beginning of the period, followed by gradual warming, interrupted periodically by short cooling periods (Antonsson and Seppa¨ 2007). During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), the period from 8.0 to 4.0 cal ka BP, average temperatures in Northern Europe were approximately 2.5–3.5 C higher than today (Antonsson and Seppa¨ 2007; Heikkila¨ and Seppa¨ 2010; Ilvonen et al. 2016).”


 

Deng et al., 2019

“Recent SST records based on longchain alkenones imply that the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] was slightly warmer than the CWP [Current Warm Period] in the northern SCS [South China Sea] (Kong et al., 2017).  … [I]t still should be noted that the SST record reconstructed from a Tridacna gigas Sr/Ca profile by Yan et al. (2015a) suggested that the annual average SST was approximately 0.89°C higher during the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] than that of the CWP [Current Warm Period].”


Caballero et al., 2019

“Diatom-based transfer functions for salinity, precipitation and temperature were developed using a training set that included data from 40 sites along central Mexico. … Maximum last glacial cooling of ∼5°C is reconstructed, a relatively wet deglacial and a warmer (+3.5°C) early Holocene. … The early Holocene marked a change towards high lake salinities and the highest positive temperature anomalies (+3.5°C) during a peak in summer insolation.”

Steinman et al., 2019

The early Holocene d18O [hydroclimate] maximum in the Castor Lake record at 9630 (9110-10,100) yr BP is likely in part a result of higher summer insolation, which produced higher temperatures and greater evaporation during the warm season. Additionally, atmospheric circulation in the early Holocene was substantially different from the modern configuration (Bartlein et al., 2014), and precipitation amounts were likely lower, due to the presence of the residual Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets (Dyke, 2004), which affected air mass trajectories and the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation on a hemispheric scale. …  A chironomid based climate reconstruction from Windy Lake, south-central British Columbia, supports the assertion that greater summer insolation produced warmer summer temperatures at this time (Chase et al., 2008).”


Lozhkin et al., 2019 (SW Beringia)

“Mixed Larix-Betula forest was established at the Tanon site by ∼6600 14C BP (7500 cal BP). This forest included Betula platyphylla, a species common in moderate zones of the Russian Far East (e.g., B. platyphylla-Larix forests of central Kamchatka). The importance of Betula in the Middle Holocene assemblage is unusual, as tree Betula is not a common element in the modern coastal forest. The abundance of B. platyphylla macrofossils particularly suggests warmer than present summers and an extended growing period. This inference is supported by a regional climate model that indicates a narrow coastal region where the growing season was longer and summer temperatures were 2-4 °C warmer than today. Variations in Betula pollen percentages at other sites in northern Priokhot’ye are suggestive that this Middle Holocene forest was widespread along the coast.”

Novenko et al., 2019

[D]uring the Holocene Thermal Maximum when the mean annual temperatures were 2°С higher than those of the present day [6,9,10,11]. Roughly 5.7–5.5 ka BP, the Holocene Thermal Maximum was followed by gradual climatic cooling that included several warming and cooling phases with temperature fluctuations ranging between 2 and 3°С. …The CFSNBR [Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve] is situated roughly 360 km northwest of Moscow (the Tver region, 56º35’ N, 32º55’ E) in an ecological zone transitioning from taiga to broadleaf forests. The vegetation of the CFSNBR is primary southern taiga forests, and it has been undisturbed by any human activities for at least 86 years. The climate of the study area is temperate and moderately continental with a mean annual temperature of 4.1°C and annual precipitation of roughly 700 mm [4].”


Yuan et al., 2019

“During the early Holocene (10.0–6.0 ka), the modern-type circulation system was not established, which resulted in strong water column stratification; and the higher sea surface temperature (SST) might be associated with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The interval of 6.0 to 1.0/2.0 ka displayed a weaker stratification caused by the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) and the initiation of the circulation system. A decreasing SST trend was related to the formation of the cold eddy generated by the circulation system in the ECS. During 1.0/2.0 to 0 ka, temperatures were characterized by much weaker stratification and an abrupt decrease of SST caused by the enhanced circulation system and stronger cold eddy, respectively.”


Marret et al., 2019

“The studied region is the only coastal region in Russia to have subtropical landscapes as well as humid to semi-arid landscapes (Petrooshina, 2003). Winter temperatures average 3–5°C in winter up to 23–24°C in summer. … A possible maximum of warm conditions may have occurred between 3.0 and 2.5 cal. ka BP, as highlighted by the occurrence of O. israelianum. This species has not been seen in modern sediments from the Black Sea nor the Caspian Sea and mainly occurs in waters where winter SSTs are above 14.3°C and summer SSTs are more than 24.2° C … Establishment of present-day conditions may have happened within the last 1500 years, but the low-resolution sampling at the top of the core prevents us to exactly pinpoint this change. However, our dinocyst assemblage indicates cooler conditions [today] with the decrease of S. mirabilis.”


Gebbie and Huybers, 2019

The ongoing deep Pacific is cooling, which revises Earth’s overall heat budget since 1750 downward by 35%. … In the deep Pacific, we find basin-wide cooling ranging from 0.02° to 0.08°C at depths between 1600 and 2800 m that is also statistically significant. The basic pattern of Atlantic warming and deep-Pacific cooling diagnosed from the observations is consistent with our model results, although the observations indicate stronger cooling trends in the Pacific. …. At depths below 2000 m, the Atlantic warms at an average rate of 0.1°C over the past century, whereas the deep Pacific cools by 0.02°C over the past century. … These basin-wide average trends are used to relax the assumption of globally uniform changes in surface conditions and to constrain regional temperature histories for 14 distinct regions over the Common Era by a control theory method. The result, referred to as OPT-0015, fits the observed vertical structure of Pacific cooling and Atlantic warming. Global surface changes still explain the basic Atlantic-Pacific difference in OPT-0015, but greater Southern Ocean cooling between 600 and 1600 CE leads to greater rates of cooling in the deep Pacific over recent centuries. … OPT-0015 indicates that the upper 2000 m of the ocean has been gaining heat since the 1700s, but that one-fourth of this heat uptake was mined from the deeper ocean. This upper-lower distinction is most pronounced in the Pacific since 1750, where cooling below 2000 m offsets more than one-third of the heat gain above 2000 m. … Finally, we note that OPT-0015 indicates that ocean heat content was larger during the Medieval Warm Period than at present, not because surface temperature was greater, but because the deep ocean had a longer time to adjust to surface anomalies. Over multicentennial time scales, changes in upper and deep ocean heat content have similar ranges, underscoring how the deep ocean ultimately plays a leading role in the planetary heat budget.”


Vermassen  et al., 2019

“[O]ur study shows that while warming of ocean waters in Upernavik fjord likely contributed to the retreat phases during the 1930s and early 2000s, ocean warming is not a prerequisite for retreat of Upernavik Isstrøm. … This is important since it implies that the future potential oceanic forcing of Upernavik Isstrøm will depend on changes related to circulation in the North Atlantic (i.e. the AMO). Since the meridional overturning circulation strength and associated heat transport is currently declining, (Frajka-Williams et al., 2017), this may lead to cooling bottom waters during the next decade in Upernavik Fjord and most likely also other fjords in West-Greenland.”


Li et al., 2019

Global warming ‘stalled’ or ‘paused’ for the period 1998–2012, as claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2013). However, the early drafts of IPCC AR5 have no detailed explanation for this “hiatus” since 111 of 114 climate models in the CMIP5 earth system model did not verify this phenomenon. … In 2017, after a wave of scientific publications and public debate, the climate models as reported in IPCC remain debates, including definitions of “hiatus” and datasets (Medhaug et al., 2017)…. The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 ), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth’s orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China’s temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT in the early 21st century.”


Zhang et al., 2019

Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends.”

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Solar Cycle 24 Going Down As Quietest In Almost 200 Years, May Put The Brakes On Warming

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The sun in December 2018

Von Frank Bosse und Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated / edited by P Gosselin)

Our sun was also very sub-normally active in December last year. We are writing the 121st month since the beginning of cycle number 24, in December 2008, and since 2012 (when we started the blog here) we could only reformulate the opening sentence once: In September 2017 when the sun was 13% more active than the long-term (since 1755) average.

All other months were below average. With the sunspot number (SSN) of 3.1 for the monthly average for December and a total of 24 days without any spot (throughout the second half of the month the sun was spotless) we are in the middle of the cycle minimum.

Fig. 1:  Solar Cycle 24 – red – is almost over. Since October 2017 (cycle month 108) we have been at the minimum and the next cycle should start at the beginning of 2020. The blue curve is the respective monthly average over the 23 cycles completed so far. The black curve (for comparison) SC 5, which was recorded around 1815 and was as similarly weak as the current cycle.

The following chart compares all the cycles observed thus far:

Fig. 2: The sunspot activity of our sun since cycle 1 (1755). The numbers are calculated by adding the monthly differences with respect to the mean (blue in Fig.1) up to the current cycle month 121.

Clearly SC 24 is the lowest activity since the Dalton Minimum (SC 5,6,7) around 1810 when using the entire cycle and not only the maximum activity in short peaks (see Fig. 1).

When does the new Cycle 25 begin? This is very difficult to say. In December a total of 3 spots were observed that belong to the new cycle because they are magnetically polarized the other way around than those of the old cycle. This January we are currently still seeing a lot of the “old cycle” again, so forecasts are probably premature. If something happens, here be the first to know!

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