The Faked Crisis: Polar Bear Expert’s Book Poised To Become Hot Seller, Expose Polar Alarmism Community

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A newly released book is bad news for global warming alarmists who are desperately seeking bad news for fueling their fear-based, non-scientific movement.

Polar bear expert and veteran zoologist Dr. Susan J. Crockford has just released her latest book titled: “The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.

As the title says: there never was a polar bear crisis due to global warming. It was made up to scare the public. The numbers back it up.

The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.

The polar bear, an icon used by climate alarmists for symbolizing dangerous climate change, in fact has seen its population rise strongly over the recent decades and has shown its ability to thrive in the Arctic as sea ice levels fluctuate.

Book on failed predictions and “backlash”

In her book Dr. Crockford explains how activist researchers tried to create a polar bear crisis using shoddy computer simulations, bad science and hiding inconvenient facts. But now their failed predictions have led to a total loss of scientific credibility, which Crockford says “they entirely deserve”.

Arctic sea ice stable over past 12 years

For example just 10 years ago a number of “experts” predicted that the Arctic sea ice would disappear in late summer by now. Today we see that Arctic sea ice has since stabilized and there has been no decrease in 12 years.

No catastrophic decline in polar bears

In her book, the Canadian zoologist also explains the tale of why the catastrophic decline in polar bear numbers we were promised in 2007 “failed to materialise”. She adds: “It is also, in part, the story of my role in bringing that failure to public attention, and the backlash against me that ensued.”

Population as high as 40,000

Obviously it has turned out that polar bears too are a long way off from disappearing. Crockford writes in her book:

And despite decades of handwringing, polar bear numbers are not only higher than 50 years ago, but may be much higher than leading polar bear specialists are willing to entertain, perhaps as high as 39,000 (range 26,000–58,000).”

She adds:

In summary, despite the fact that sea ice coverage since 2007 has repeatedly reached levels not predicted until 2050 or later, not only has the estimated global population size of polar bears not declined by 67% (i.e. to 8100) – or even just over 30% – it has increased by approximately 20% above the estimate used by the USGS analysts who made the predictions.”

Vicious backlash

In her book readers will experience first hand of what it is like for honest scientists to speak truth to power, and the risks and harassment they are forced to confront.

About the author

Susan CrockfordSusan Crockford is a 35-year veteran zoologist who has also published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbiaand co-owner of a private consulting company, Pacific Identifications Inc.

Her publications are available at her website Polar Bear Science. She also authrored : Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change.

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Fading Warming…More Cooling: Winters At Austria’s Ischgler Idalpe Have Become 1.3°C COLDER Over Past 30 Years!

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Good news for skiers: winters at Austria’s Ischgler Idalpe have become colder over the past 30 years

By Die kalte Sonne
(Text translated by P Gosselin)


New report shows Austrian winters have ignored global warming. Image cropped Zukunft Skisport.

The Austrian Paznaun is a valley in the far west of North Tyrol with an altitude of 900-1800 meters above sea level.

The region thrives on tourism, especially skiing, which generates more than 2 million overnight stays annually. For this reason, hosts and visitors have a special interest in the effects of climate change in Paznaun.

What are the current trends? In November 2018, ski tourism researcher Günther Aigner presented a study in which he closely examined winter trends using the official series of measurements. The pdf of the work can be downloaded free of charge from the web platform “Zukunft Skisport“, where further studies are also available.

Here is the short version of what he found:

The winters in the Paznaun since 1895: An analysis of official winter temperature and snow measurement series

The winters on the Ischgler Idalpe have become colder in the past 30 years. At the ZAMG station (Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), winter temperatures fell in a linear trend from minus 4.8 to minus 6.1 degrees Celsius – that is: by 1.3 degrees. Seven of the last ten winters were colder than the 30-year average.

However, no significant winter temperature changes have been observed on the Paznaun mountains for the past 50 years. In discussions about the course of temperatures in relation to winter sports in Tyrol, the choice of time axis is therefore of great importance. The snow measurements at the ZAMG Galtür station over the last 123 years show no statistically significant trends.

Since 1895/96, the annual number of days with natural snow cover has remained statistically unchanged at an average of 173 days. The highest annual snow heights since 1895/96 also show no statistical change and average 114 cm. Their variability is considerable, as the range goes from only 38cm in winter 2016/17 to 210cm in winter 1998/99.

In the ski area “Silvretta Arena” in Ischgl one could ski on 155 days in the average of the last 32 years. The linear trend is rising. Looking at the official measurement data evaluated in this study, the climatological conditions for winter sports in Paznaundie have remained favorable over the last 30 years. No forecasts for the future can be derived from the evaluations published here.”

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French Doctor Calls “Instrumentalization” Of Greta Thunberg “Irresponsible”, “Moral Error” …Revealing “Neuropsychiatric State To Media Should Be A Crime”

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Laurent Alexandre: “Greta Thunberg instrumentalized by militant extremists

In a stinging commentary at Le Figaro here, Dr. Laurent Alexandre, surgeon-urologist, a graduate of Sciences Po, HEC and ENA, and co-founder of the Doctissimo website, asserts that teenage Nobel Prize nominee Greta Thunberg is being shamelessly exploited and “is playing into the hands of economic interests for whom climate protection is of little importance”.

Dr. Laurent Alexandre. Image: https://twitter.com/dr_l_alexandre?lang=de

The French physician blasts the instrumentalization of the special child as “irresponsible” and that “revealing her neuropsychiatric state to the media should be a crime.”

“Substitute for the Marxist dictatorship” and “liberticidal agenda”

Laurent Alexandre first comments that “the young people who follow Greta Thunberg are the useful idiots of the green dictatorship” much in the same way Lenin called left-wing bourgeois “useful idiots of the revolution” and that the failures of all Marxist models have “left the anti-liberals in turmoil.”

He writes that ecology today serves as “the ideal instrument to propose a new utopia that is a substitute for the Marxist dictatorship”. He adds: “By exploiting the youth, we are imposing a liberticidal agenda in the name of good feelings.”

Targets reachable only possible through a green dictatorship

Alexandre comments that Thunberg and the leftists are demanding that “we reduce our energy consumption by at least to a fourth, and believes that “imposing such a step backwards can only be achieved through the green dictatorship.”

The French physician even characterizes the militant activists as the “Khmer greens” and “green ayatollahs”, and reminds readers that the measures that are demanded by the greens will likely end up leading to more CO2 emissions rather than less because they are also demanding the shut down of nuclear power. If the nuclear power plants in France were to be shut down, fossil plants would need to be on standby and spring into action on sunless, windless days.

“Shamefully manipulated victim”

Alexandre implies that Greta Thunberg is unwittingly promoting “the interests of China and Russia” and that her demands would make us “highly dependent on rare metals needed for wind, solar and storage installations, of which China has a near-monopoly.”

The French urologist and book author describes Ms. Thunberg as “a shamefully manipulated victim” who needs to be protected, but adds that her radical ideas “must be attacked relentlessly”.

Criminal child abuse?

The tragedy of Greta Thunberg, Alexandre comments, is that “the child is all the more manipulable as her parents have made her disability public (which is irresponsible on their part)” and that as a doctor he believes that “revealing the neuropsychiatric state of minor children to the media should be a crime!”

He concludes:

We have known since Hans Asperger’s description of the syndrome in 1941 that Asperger’s children are sometimes brilliant but always fragile; instrumentalizing them is a moral fault.”

Movement of “deadly utopias”

Finally, Alexandre comments that following the green path will backfire because it would “aggravate global warming, increase the waste of public money, lead to a regressive green dictatorship and put us at the mercy of China and Russia. All liberal democrats, all Raymond Aron’s heirs, must combat the deadly utopias it conveys.”

 

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2018 Study Finds ‘Unsustainable’ Smartphone CO2 Emissions To Reach 125 Megatons Per Year By 2020

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For those serious about taking concerted action to combat climate change, implications from a 2018 study suggest that the widespread abandonment of  smartphone use — which is collectively on track to add 125 megatons of CO2 equivalent per year by 2020 — may be key to preventing the planet’s catastrophic demise.

Image Source (adapted): Press-Herald

Most people haven’t considered their smartphones to be significant contributors to global CO2 emissions.

But they are.  And they are poised to become one of the more prominent obstacles to global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in the coming decades.

The unsustainable expansion of smartphone emissions

A recent analysis by Belkhir and Elmeligi (2018) determined that the greenhouse gas emissions from the Information and Communication Industry (ICT) – smartphones and mobile devices, prominently – will grow from 1% of total global emissions in 2007 to 14% by 2040. That’s more than half of today’s relative contribution from the globe’s entire transportation sector.

In 2010, smartphone use added 17 megatons of CO2 equivalent (17 MT-CO2-e) to annual global emissions. By next year (2020), smartphone emissions are expected to reach 125 MT-CO2-e/year – a 730% explosion in just 10 years.

Last year (2018), there were 2.5 billion smartphone users.  Belkhir and Elmeligi suggest that if there aren’t serious efforts to reduce or eliminate smartphone use in the near future, the number of smartphone units across the globe may reach 8.7 billion by 2040.

This is unsustainable, dramatically undermining global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.

Image Source: The Conversation

Protesters demand climate action

This past weekend, climate change protesters took to the streets across the world by the hundreds of thousands.

Many of these protesters were children and youth.  They decided to skip school last Friday to demonstrate just how deeply concerned they are about the Earth’s climate.

There is little these young people can do to save the planet from extinction as far as directly influencing government policy.

However, there is something that they – and we – can do that would make a difference in reducing our CO2 emissions impact: give up our smartphones.

Permanently.

And encourage all our friends and family members to do the same.

Widespread smartphone renunciation would be a symbolic testament to our commitment to rescuing the planet from the oncoming climate catastrophe.

It’s not too late…yet.  Shall we begin?

Image Source: Belkhir and Elmeligi, 2018
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“Global Warming” Leaves Ireland In The Cold …Emerald Island Has Been Cooling Over Past 3 Decades!

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By Kirye

As today is St. Patricks Day, it’s a good time to look at Ireland’s annual mean temperatures over the recent decades.

As we recall, global cooling was the scare of the 1970s before global warming became the scare in the 1980s. So since the 1980s, a fair amount of warming must have taken place, right?

No.

Ireland has been cooling

Looking at 6 stations (half at airports!) across the emerald island, we see in fact there’s been a notable cooling over the past 25 years, since 1994:

Data: JMA

Obviously global warming never made it to the island. And yes, it’s mysterious how the Irish media still continue to hysterically warn about warming when temperatures in fact have been falling instead of rising.

The source of the (untampered) plotted data is the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA). The six datasets were selected because of their data completeness – only a few months of data are missing.

30 years of cooling

The non-warming trend of the 6 Irish stations goes back to 1986, i.e. more than 30 years:

Data: JMA

There has not been any warming since 1986, thus surpassing the 30-year mean that is defined as “climate”. We see a similar trend in my home country of Japan.

Cooling since Hansen’s 1988 warnings of warming

When did the Irish cooldown start? After the cold years of 1986 and 1987, the temperature spiked more than 3°C in a single year to 11.5°C in 1988, the year that Dr. James Hansen told the world before Congress that the planet was heating and would heat up to unbearable conditions within 30 years.

Plotting the data since Dr. Hansen’s dire warnings in 1988, we see that Ireland in fact has cooled off:

Data: JMA

If the Irish can celebrate anything this St. Patrick’s Day, it is the fact that they won’t need to worry about overheating anytime soon.

Happy St. Patrick’s day everyone.

===============================
Pierre Gosselin contributed to this article.

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Leading Swiss Publisher Calls Climate Movement A “Mass Trance” …Climate Hysteria Understood As “Absolute Truth”

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The publisher of conservative Swiss weekly “Weltwoche” and SVP National Council member Roger Köppel commented in an interview with the Baseler Zeitung (BaZ) on children skipping school to demonstrate for climate, and the climate movement in general.

Weltwoche publisher Roger Köppel. Image: https://twitter.com/KoeppelRoger

In the interview Köppel called the climate movement a “political mass trance that that is currently rolling over us” and that children have been prompted to skip school and protest an “infantilization” of politics.

In the interview, Köppel notes that the planet has warmed “only one degree since 1860” and that this increase is nothing unusual in a historical context.

“Dangerous” state intervention

When the BAZ points out that his opinion is more one from the fringes, Köppel dismisses it, telling the “Evangelium of climate prophets” is being challenged by renowned scientists like Richard Lindzen “while policymaking is already convinced that this climate hysteria is to be understood as absolute truth.”

He tells the BaZ that “it is dangerous that the state is massively intervening in our economy and energy supply.”

“State collective much more dangerous”

Later in the interview Köppel calls the belief that man has the main control over climate “presumption, religious delusion and self-denial.” When asked whether or not the state indeed should take action with regards to the “climate crisis”, Köppel replied “no”  and added: “The state climate collective is much more dangerous than climate change.”

“Dangerously one-sided” debate needs to be countered

So aggressive were the questions posed by the BaZ that Köppel asked: “Stop with this CO2 demonization”, telling the BAZ: “We have a hype about the climate. I’m talking about a new solar religion, a kind of political trance. It is the duty of citizens to take countermeasures. The debate is dangerously one-sided.”

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Tokyo Warming Due To Urbanization, Leading Japanese Biologist Tells National TV Audience…Almost No Rural Warming

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By Kirye (in Tokyo)

On March 13, Japan’s Honmaddeka TV spoke about THE SANKEI NEWS, which reported there is a possibility that people will become less able to see cherry blossoms in full bloom in the near future. Readers may surmise the culprit for this themselves.

Biologist Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda tells audience on Honmaddeka TV that warming in Tokyo is due to urban heat island effect, not global warming. (Image: Honmaddeka TV).

Urban heat island effect responsible for Tokyo’s warming

However well-known Japanese biologist Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda poured some cold water on that claim, commenting on Honmaddeka TV last Wednesday: “They said that it’s global warming’s fault, but actually it is because of heat island effect. Most of the cherry trees are in cities, for example in the neighborhood of Tokyo or surroundings. The urban areas are getting warmer. Tokyo has gotten warmer by 3.2℃ over the last one hundred years and Hukuoka by 3.1℃.”

Rural locations not warming

Dr. Ikeda then noted: “However in Hachijojima and Miyakejima [islands of Tokyo], the temperature did not change in the period. So only cities are getting warmer. Urban cherry blossoms are getting worse. Cherry trees […]  get a real wake-up after being exposed to cold winter temperatures for a long spell. There are people who worry that the cherry tree period of dormancy won’t work if the weather warms earlier and so they will not blossom in a normal way.”

More on this here.

No warming in 90 years

Unadjusted data from the NASA and the JMA for island of Hachijojima (Tokyo) and Tokyo city back up his statement. In fact, Hachijojima has not seen any temperature increase since 1926, i.e. 90 years (NASA data begin in December):

Chart: KiryeNet. Data: NASA.

Comparing the rural (island) Hachijojima’s trend to Tokyo’s since 1980:

Tokyo’s mean annual temperature has been rising, while nearby rural island Hachijojima has not seen any warming this century. Chart: KiryeNet.

Tokyo cherry trees haven’t been blossoming earlier

Though historical observations for cherry blossoms in Tokyo show they have been appearing earlier over the long-term, they have not been occurring earlier since the start of the current century:

Chart by Kirye; data from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA). 2019 data will be available soon.

That should not be a surprise because although Tokyo long-term annual temperature has risen, its winters have not warmed up since 1985:

Chart: Kirye; data from JMA.

In summary, mean annual temperatures in Japan’s urban areas are being impacted hugely by urban heat island effect. Yet in the countryside – away from all the asphalt, steel and concrete – this is not quite the case at all. In the media we are seeing more hysteria than fact when it comes to aspects such as cherry blossoms and warming.

P. Gosselin (Germany) contributed to this article.

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New Study: North America Has Been Cooling Since 1998 – With No Significant Overall Warming Since 1982

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The Post-1998 Hiatus

Plods On…Regionally

Image Source: Gan et al., 2019

North America (180-0°N, 15-60°N) has been characterized as a “major cooling center” by the authors of a new paper (Gan et al., 2019) published in Earth and Space Science.

The continent warmed from 1982-1998, but a cooling trend since 1998 has nearly wiped out all the previous warming.

Overall, there has been no significant temperature change in North America since 1982.

The warming and cooling trends, especially the daily temperature minimum (Tmin), are well-correlated (r=0.71) with the path of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during 1950-2014, leading the authors to conclude that the temperature trends over this 32-year period are “a result of” natural changes in the AMO.


Gan et al., 2019

The Key Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
in Minimum Temperature Over North America
During Global Warming Slowdown

“Daily Minimum temperature (Tmin) is an important variable in both global and regional climate changes, and its variability can greatly affect the ecological system. In the early 21st century, warming slowdown is seen over the North Hemisphere and North America is one of the major cooling centers.”
In this study, we found that Tmin experienced an obvious decline in North America during warming slowdown period. Such Tmin decline is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the correlation between the decadal components of Tmin and AMO reached 0.71 during 1950-2014.”
“According to composite analysis, the AMO on the positive (negative) phase takes two low-pressure (high-pressure) systems in the northeastern Pacific and the North Atlantic at night, accompanied by cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations and warm (cold) advection in North America. Therefore, the analyses conclude that the Tmin decline during warming slowdown period is a result of the synchronous decrease of the AMO. The results emphasize the key role of AMO on the decadal variation of Tmin in North America.”

Image Source: Gan et al., 2019

Another new paper renews the global warming “hiatus” debate and documents a 21st century cooling trend in northern China that also effectively snuffs out the previous decades of warming for the region.


Li et al., 2019

Satellite-based regional warming

hiatus in China and its implication

Global warming ‘stalled’ or ‘paused’ for the period 1998–2012, as claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2013). However, the early drafts of IPCC AR5 have no detailed explanation for this “hiatus” since 111 of 114 climate models in the CMIP5 earth system model did not verify this phenomenon. … In 2017, after a wave of scientific publications and public debate, the climate models as reported in IPCC remain debates, including definitions of “hiatus” and datasets (Medhaug et al., 2017).”

Image Source: Li et al., 2019
“The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 ), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth’s orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China’s temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT [other natural forcing] in the early 21st century.”

Image Source: Li et al., 2019
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Despite Mild Winter, Central Europe’s 30-Year Winter Temperature Trend Still Cooling

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The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here presents two charts which I’m featuring today.

They show that the winter temperature trend for Germany over the past 32 years is not cooperating with “experts'” forecasts of rapid warming and snow and ice becoming a thing of the past.

The first chart, using the data from Germany’s DWD national weather service, shows that wintertime mean temperature trend in Germany has not risen in 32 years:

The green trendline shows that although CO2 in the atmosphere globally has increased from about 350 ppm since 1988 to about 412 ppm currently, Germany’s mean winter temperature has fallen a bit.

France winters cooling

The story is true for much of France as well. Japanese blogger Kirye prepared a chart depicting the winter mean temperature of 12 stations across the country using the untampered data available from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA):


Source: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/

Germany trending away from droughts

Also the German media are often filled with scare stories telling us we will be seeing increasing number of droughts and dryness, and that last year’s dry summer was just a taste of what is to come.

Yet once again the data contradict all the doomsday drought reports. The long term winter precipitation trend since records began has been upward.

However, we acknowledge the trend has been decreasing (to normal levels) since about 2000. Interestingly German precipitation shows a 40 year cycle, and so likely has nothing to do with CO2.

The annual precipitation trend for Germany has also been upward overall, and it too has been trending downward since about 2000 (during this time sunshine hours have increased):

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Climate Regulatory Madness Ratchets Up: “German Greens Aiming To Limit Citizens To 2 Flights A Year

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Recently we reported here how the German Greens are the biggest frequent fliers, and thus climate hypocrites. So it’s only ironic that they are now calling for flight restrictions to be imposed on all citizens.

Of course, important people who do really “important things” — like flying to world-rescuing climate conferences — would be exempt or have the added fees paid by the taxpayer.

According to a number of leading Germany dailies, e.g. here, and here, Green Party parliamentarian Dieter Janecek (42) “wants to spoil the German ‘desire to fly a lot’ with hefty price increases – in order to protect the climate.”

Only 2 roundtrip flights a year

Janeck told the Münchener Merkur that citizens should be allowed only 2 roundtrip flights annually. In Janeck’s proposal, a 30 – 50% surcharge would be added beginning with the third international roundtrip flight.

According to the Münchener Merkur, Janeck says that each citizen is to b allotted “a fixed budget” of two or three flight pairs.

Accordingly, each person has a fixed budget of three flight pairs per year that they can buy normally. “If you want to fly more, you have to buy the flights from others who are not using their budget,” Janecek said.

Customer repairs over the phone

Janeck believes that companies and authorities will think more about utilizing video conferencing in place of traveling for meetings. ”

One aspect of the proposal is that “everyone would have practically their own private emissions trading system.”

“And those who fly little can even sell shares and earn money,” Janecek said.

“Horrified” reaction

But Janeck’s proposal has come under fire the center right CSU party transportation expert Daniela Ludwig (43), who, according to Bild newspaper, “reacted horrified”. Ludwig told BILD: “Climate protection does not work with paternalism and prohibitions, but only through sensitization. We will not be able to market our German products worldwide only through video conferencing.”

FDP faction leader Christian Lindner (40) warns: “Those who ration air travel are showing the old face of a party that aims to ban everything.”

“Stupid proposal”

Even the Greens-friendly socialists blasted the draconian idea. Johannes Kahrs (55, SPD party) spoke of a ‘stupid proposal’: “People should decide for themselves when and how they fly”, especially working people have no other choice,” Bild reported.

Bild daily remarks that Janeck’s proposal probably would be most unpopular among his own Green Party where its member have been found to be the champions of frequent flying. Bild reports: “Surveys show time and again that Green politicians and sympathizers hold the record for the number of flights.”

Could actually lead to more flying

As a low-frequency flier (one flight per year) I don’t think it’s that bad an idea. For those who rarely fly, especially the poor, it would be possible for them to collect credits and to fly maybe more often.

But on the other hand, it would mean the creation of yet another bureaucratic monstrosity, more intrusion into the free market and more control over private lives. The proposal should be filed in the dustbin.

Once again Janeck’s proposal only confirms that leftists and environmentalists only want to tell everyone else how to live and what to do.

Ban all domestic flights

As extreme as the German Green party’s proposal may sound, its still falls short of what extremist scientists are calling for.

Former Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) director and frequent flier Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, for example, said that “domestic flights within Germany should be banned” and be replaced by a better continental high-speed train network. Read more here.

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New Paper: Widespread Collapse Of Ice Sheets ~5000 Years Ago Added 3-4 Meters To Rising Seas

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During the Mid-Holocene, when CO2 concentrations were stable and low (270 ppm), Antarctica’s massive Ross Ice Shelf naturally collapsed, adding the meltwater equivalent of 3-4 meters to sea levels.

Because CO2 concentrations changed very modestly during the pre-industrial Holocene (approximately ~25 ppm in 10,000 years), climate models that are predicated on the assumption that CO2 concentration changes drive ocean temperatures, ice sheet melt, and sea level rise necessarily simulate a very stable Holocene climate.

In contrast, changes in ocean temperatures, ice sheet melt, and sea level rise rates were far more abrupt and variable during the Holocene than during the last 100 years.

Modern ocean changes are barely detectable in the context of natural variability

Image Source(s): Rosenthal et al., 2013Climate Audit

The temperatures of the global ocean have changed by just 0.1°C in the last 50 years, and just 0.02°C during 1994-2013.

According to Levitus et al. (2012), the global ocean’s 0-2000 m layer warmed by 0.09°C during 1955-2010, while the 0-700 m layer warmed by 0.18°C during that span.

In the context of the Pacific Ocean’s 0-700 m temperature changes during the last two millennia (Rosenthal et al. 2013), that 0.18°C change in 55 years is barely detectable.

Mid-Holocene centennial-scale sea level fluctuations were much higher than today’s

During the Early Holocene, when continental ice sheets were still in the process of melting, sea levels rose at rates that ranged between 10 to 60 mm/yr, or 1 to 6 meters per century (Ivanovic et al., 2017; Zecchin et al., 2015; Hodgson et al., 2016).

During the Mid- to Late-Holocene, when relative sea level was about 2 meters higher than today’s levels, sea levels rose and fell at rates of a half-meter to a meter per century, with 13 mm/yr reached on decadal timescales.

Image Source: Meltzner et al., 2017

Image Source: Mörner et al., 2011

In contrast, the modern record indicates that sea levels only rose at a rate of 1.5 mm/yr during 1958-2014, or about 0.15 of a meter (6 inches) per century.

Image Source: Frederikse et al., 2018

Widespread collapse of ice sheets from 5000-1500 years ago

A new paper (Yokoyama et al. [2019]) suggests that the Antarctic (and/or Greenland) ice sheets melted to such an extent around 5000 years ago that they added between 3 and 4 meters to sea levels.

The Ross Ice Shelf (Antarctica) underwent “widespread collapse” during this period (Yokoyama et al., 2016), subjected to rates of retreat and sub-ice shelf water temperatures much higher than present.

These melting events occurred while CO2 concentrations were a low and quiescent 270 ppm.

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2019

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2016

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2016
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Hurricane Alarmists Take Blow As New Study Pours Cold Water On Human Impact

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PIK takes a blow: stronger hurricanes cannot be explained by higher CO2

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Image: NASA (public domain)

Whenever the hurricane season in the Caribbean begins, the whole world and the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) wait for a strong storm, as it presents the ideal opportunity to sell climate change, as was the case in September 2017 when Potsdam’s Neueste Nachrichten (PNN) daily reported with reference to the PIK’s Anders Levermann:

Global warming provides energy for stronger tropical storms
According to Potsdam climate researchers, the impact of the current tropical cyclones can be attributed to climate change. Burning coal, oil and gas increases the temperature of the planet and thus provides energy for ever stronger tropical storms, explained Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “Unfortunately, physics here is very clear: hurricanes draw their destructive energy from the warmth of the ocean. The water temperatures in the region are too high. Climate change does not cause these storms, but it can “make their consequences worse.”

Will the intensity of hurricanes increase with climate change? Can this be detected today, as Levermann concludes so trivially? This is not the case, say researchers around Lory Trenary from George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. They investigated climate models and re-analyses and found no connection with the drive by greenhouse gases, especially CO2.

The long-term trends 1958-2005 were ultimately contradictory and not valid. An attribution of hurricane intensity to climate change is still not possible. In the introduction to their current work, they also mention Levermann’s argument: “Warmer ocean-more severe storms! After a detailed analysis, however, they come to the following conclusion:

These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human related forcings.”

Already in the past there was disagreement among atmospheric researchers about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on hurricane intensity. Levermann did not bother with this last year either, because as a researcher he is undoubtedly informed about the various topics. So the only reason for spreading the false claim remains the climate siren character of the PIK and others.

Here is the abstract from the work of Trenary et al., which appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters on March 4, 2019:

Are mid‐20th century forced changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity detectable?

Abstract: The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in CMIP5 models for the period 1958‐2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal variability. The use of discriminant analysis to optimize detectability does not yield a clear, common climate change signal. Of the seven models with a significant response, one has a negative linear trend while two have a positive linear trend. The trend in PI is not even consistent among reanalyses, although this difference is not statistically significant because of large uncertainties. Furthermore, estimates of PI internal variability have significantly different variances among different reanalysis products. These disagreements between models, reanalysis products, and between models and reanalyses, in conjunction with relatively large uncertainties, highlight the difficulty of detecting and attributing observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity.

Plain Language Summary: Observed temperature has been steadily increasing over the last century and much of this warming can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, the maximum intensity (or potential intensity) a hurricane can achieve depends strongly upon sea surface temperature, with warmer temperatures producing stronger storms. From this perspective, we might expect that the warming surface temperatures are driving observable changes in hurricane intensity. To this end, we analyze climate model experiments to determine if the observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity can be attributed to human related emissions over the period 1958‐2005. Of the eleven models analyzed, we find that only seven predict that hurricane potential intensity has changed in response to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The change in potential intensity differs across models, with one model predicting a decreasing trend in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, while two models predict an increasing trend in potential intensity. Different reanalysis datasets are likewise inconsistent. These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human related forcings. It is possible that as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, an unequivocal forced response in North Atlantic potential intensity may emerge in the future.”

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New Study Shows Sea Level Near In Western Pacific Was 0.4 Meters Higher 3600 Years Ago Than Today

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Alarmists say that sea levels are rising rapidly, and unless we act now to take over the climate using the secret man-made CO2 reduction method, soon New York and even Cologne, Germany, will end up in water. At least that’s the alarmist scenario that the Truth Media like to tell us about.

However, a number of studies and tide gauge data tell us a very different story. Hat-tip: reader Mary Brown.

The latest study titled: Holocene sea-level change and evolution of a mixed coral reef and mangrove system at Iriomote Island, southwest Japan, by Yamano et al tells us that sea levels were more than 1 meter higher 5100 to 3600 years ago than they are today they, or 0.4 meters when corrected for tectonics.

The paper’s abstract follows:

Exposed fossil microatolls and core samples from a coral reef and a mangrove forest at the Yutsun River mouth, Iriomote Island, southwest Japan, reveal the internal structure and temporal changes in the sedimentary processes of a mixed reef–mangrove system. Evidence from the core samples and fossil microatolls suggests sea level reached its present position before 5100 cal yr B.P., and a relative sea-level highstand of 1.1–1.2 m above the present sea level occurred from 5100 to 3600 cal yr B.P. This was followed by a gradual fall in relative sea level. The tectonically corrected sea-level curve indicates a stable sea level after 5100 cal yr BP., with a sea-level highstand of up to 0.4 m between 5100 and 3600 cal yr B.P.

A nearshore reef dominated by massive Porites and arborescent Acropora initially developed at 6500–3900 cal yr B.P. Reef development was potentially terminated by relative sea-level fall and sediment discharge from the Yutsun River that affected the backreef environment. An offshore coral reef reached present-day sea level by 1000 cal yr B.P., forming a wave break that enabled the foundation of mangrove forest on the fringing reef after ∼1000 cal yr B.P. The reef development was significantly delayed compared with other coral reefs in the region with similar medium-to high-energy conditions, but it provided a calm environment in the backreef area that allowed the development of mangroves. These features demonstrate the chronology and causal relationship between coral reef and mangrove development under the influence of Holocene sea-level change and river discharge.”

The peer-reviewed study is yet more cold water on the heated alarmist claims of a rapidly accelerating sea level rise.

NOAA: tide gauges measure only 1.7 – 1.8 mm

Tide gauges are also showing a much slower sea level rise. Just recently the NOAA here announced that had adjusted its tide gauge data for 2018 and now says the average global sea level rise rate is only 1.7-1.8 mm/yr, as opposed to satellite data which show a rise of over 3 mm per year.

Naturally, the tide gauge data are more crucial because they measure sea level rise at the coast where people actually live.

According to sunshinehours.net:

That’s a measly 5.6 inches by 2100. 

The map of relative sea level trends provides an overview of variations in the rates of local sea level change at long-term tide stations (based on a minimum of 30 years of data in order to account for long-term sea level variations and reduce errors in computing sea level trends based on monthly mean sea level).

The variations in sea level trends seen here primarily reflect differences in rates and sources of vertical land motion.

Areas experiencing little-to-no change in relative sea level are illustrated in green, including stations consistent with average global sea level rise rate of 1.7-1.8 mm/yr. These are stations not experiencing significant vertical land motion.

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German Flagship Daily FAZ: High Energy Prices Would Be ‘Death Sentence For Poor’

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A commentary at flagship German online daily FAZ looked at a recent study by the German Umweltbundesamt – UBA – (Federal Environment Agency) which examined the per capita consumption of natural resources by different population groups.

Not surprisingly, high income groups were found to own a large number of cars and live in large homes with energy-guzzling appliances – thus making this group of people large consumers of energy.

Frequent flier climate activists

Also the study found that the “urban, academic young classes who tend towards voting for the Greens have far above-average CO2 emissions per capita” and these emissions “are not offset by them buying vegetables from the local region in the organic shop”.

The FAZ writes that the study found that this particular class — who are worried about the CO2 emissions and the climate — have “an above-average number of frequent flyers” and like to take long-haul flights to distant places like “New Zealand or Canada to admire nature”.

The UBA study also found that traditional working classes (whose lifestyles the Greens often complain about) in fact are energy modest and fly less frequently.

Here the FAZ concludes:

The bottom line of the study was that those with a ‘positive environmental attitude’ had the highest actual energy consumption and CO2 emissions.”

Al Gore: “a hypocrite and a Pharisee”

The FAZ also mentions former Vice President Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth”, where he “praised his ‘CO2-neutral lifestyle’ and claimed he compensated for his air travel. But later it was exposed how Gore’s 10,000 square foot mansion in Tennessee consumed “about twenty times as much energy as the house of an average American family”.

“The green-preaching politician was a hypocrite and a Pharisee,” the FAZ commented over Gore.

Back to extreme poverty

The FAZ commentary also wrote about the “Fridays for Future” movement. Here the involved activists are calling on society to wean itself off fossil fuels. This for example could be done by enacting a high CO2 tax, they claim. However the FAZ comments that this would lead to “a sharp rise in energy costs, which would be difficult for low-income groups to bear” and that “millions of poor people in other parts of the world, such as Africa, would be pushed below the absolute poverty line.”

High energy tax “a death sentence”

According to the FAZ: “To put it bluntly, the path naively advocated by some well-off activists could, in extreme cases, be the death sentence for the poor in developing countries whose future well-being and survival they are supposed to be fighting for.”

 

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New Study Reveals The Arctic Region Was 4.6°C Warmer Than ‘Present Day’ During The 1930s

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Yet another scientific paper presents evidence that the Arctic region was warmer than recent decades during the 1930s, leading scientists to conclude there is still-insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms governing the Arctic Climate System.”

Image Source: Araźny et al., 2019

Araźny et al., 2019

A comparison of bioclimatic conditions on

Franz Josef Land (the Arctic) between the

turn of the 19th to 20th century and present day

“Air temperature in 1899–1914 during three expeditions was 1.8–4.6 °C lower than the modern period in winter (Oct–Apr). However, during the 1930/31 expedition it was 4.6 °C warmer than the years 1981–2010. Our results relate to what has been called the ‘1930s warming’, referred to by various authors in the literature as the ETCW or the ETCAW.”
“In individual months, the highest negative anomalies were identified in Calm Bay (hereafter CB) in January 1914 (− 7.4 °C) and in February 1900 (− 6.8 °C). In contrast, during the 1930/31 expedition, it was 4.6 °C warmer than the present day in CB [Calm Bay]. Such a high thermal anomaly was influenced by a warm autumn and winter, especially February 1931, when the average monthly temperature was 10.7 °C higher than in the modern period.”
“In approximately the last 140 years, there have been two periods of significant temperature increases in the Arctic. The first began in around 1918–1920 and lasted until 1938 and has been called the ‘1930s warming’ (Bengtsson et al. 2004). Other works have referred to this period as the ‘Early Twentieth Century Warming’ (ETCW, Brönnimann 2009) or the ‘Early Twentieth Century Arctic Warming’ (ETCAW, Wegmann et al. 2017, 2018). Our results confirm the observations for the last expedition from the historical study period in 1930/1931. These years covered the warmest part of the ETCW.  In turn, the second increased warming of the Arctic began around 1980 (Johannessen et al. 2004) or according to Przybylak (2007) in about the mid-1990s. Changes in overall atmospheric circulation have long been believed to have been the cause of the ETCW (e.g. Scherhag 1937). As the modern climate warming (since 1975) has progressed in a largely similar manner to the progression of the ETCW (Wood and Overland 2010; Semenov and Latif 2012), there has been renewed interest in the insufficiently well-explained causes of the ETCW using the latest research methods, including, primarily, climate models. An analysis of the literature shows that the cause of such a significant warming in the present period is still not clear. There is even controversy over whether the main factors in the process are natural or anthropogenic, although the decided majority of researchers assign a greater role to natural factors (Bengtsson et al. 2004; Semenov and Latif 2012). It would appear that the greatest differences of opinion on the causes of the ETCW are to be found in works presenting climate models (see, e.g. Shiogama et al. 2006; Suo et al. 2013), which is an excellent illustration of the still-insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms governing the Arctic Climate System.”

Image Source: Araźny et al., 2019

Another new paper indicates that West Greenland retreat rates were much higher “(400-800 m/yr)” during the 1930s and 1940s than “after 2000 (>200 m/yr)”.

Vermassen  et al., 2019

A reconstruction of warm water inflow to Upernavik Isstrøm

since AD 1925 and its relation to glacier retreat

“A link between the physical oceanography of West Greenland and Atlantic SSTs has indeed been suggested previously: a positive phase of the AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation] is related to an increase of warm Atlantic waters flowing towards and along the SE and W Greenland shelf (Drinkwater et al., 2014; Lloyd et al., 2011). Our data indeed supports that the AMO influences bottom water temperature variability along the West Greenland shelf and shows that this influence is strong within Upernavik Fjord.
“Despite differences in the timing and magnitude of the retreat of the different glaciers, they broadly share the same retreat history. High retreat rates occurred between the mid ‘30s and mid ‘40s (400-800 m/yr), moderate retreat rates between 1965-1985 (~200 m/yr, except for Upernavik) and high retreat rates again after 2000 (>200 m/yr).”
“[O]ur study shows that while warming of ocean waters in Upernavik fjord likely contributed to the retreat phases during the 1930s and early 2000s, ocean warming is not a prerequisite for retreat of Upernavik Isstrøm.”
“This is important since it implies that the future potential oceanic forcing of Upernavik Isstrøm will depend on changes related to circulation in the North Atlantic (i.e. the AMO). Since the meridional overturning circulation strength and associated heat transport is currently declining, (Frajka-Williams et al., 2017), this may lead to cooling bottom waters during the next decade in Upernavik Fjord and most likely also other fjords in West-Greenland.”

Image Source: Vermassen  et al., 2019
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Unreliable Power Source…Adding Capacity Does Little To Solve Germany’s Green Energy Power Gaps

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German wind park protest group MenschNatur posted here explaining how even adding more wind and solar capacity does not make Germany’s energy supply any more reliable, but in fact may even make it less so.

Time and again the proponents of the Energiewende (transition to green energies) promote the idea that we must invest massively in more wind and solar power plants and that only an accelerated expansion can save the transformation to green energies.

Thus the wind energy protest group MenschNatur has taken a closer look at the increase in installed nominal capacity over the past years and compared it to what actually gets fed into the grid.

How increases in wind generator capacity affects the feed-in power is described in the following diagram. MenschNatur plotted the installed capacity of all German onshore wind turbines from 2014 to 2018, along with what actually got fed in.

Figure 1: Expansion of rated installed wind power capacity and the power that actually got fed into the grid in Germany. Chart: MenschNatur, by Rolf Schuster.

From the beginning of 2014 until the end of 2018 we saw an increase in wind generator capacity in Germany from 33,114 MW to 52,422 MW, i.e. 19,308 MW (red line above the light blue field).

The dark blue, jagged field is the wind power that got fed-in. For better comparability, they averaged the added wind generator capacity data and the average feed-in values for each year. As you can see, the increased added wind generator capacity (red dotted lines) increased at a more or less steady rate each year. However, the average wind power that got fed in (yellow line) does not keep pace with the rate of added capacity.

More installed capacity, yet less output!

For example there was an average of 35,869 MW of installed capacity in 2014 and only 5718 MW (15.9%) was fed in on average. In 2016, over 3,500 megawatts of wind capacity was added, yet the amount that got fed into the grid dropped fed by more than 500 MW due to calm weather conditions!

We can can conclude: Despite the addition of state-of-the-art wind turbines, the feed-in capacity can still fall. The output depends heavily on the year-to-year weather conditions.

In fact in real time, the power that gets fed-in by wind and sun in Germany can come close to zero in times of no wind and sun, as the following chart below shows for January 2019:

Chart: MenschNatur, by Rolf Schuster

The upper horizontal line represents total installed sun and wind capacity = 105,000 MW. Yet, for example on January 25, There was a night where almost nothing got fed in by wind and sun. Not once was the 105,000 MW of installed capacity able to even come close to supplying Germany’s peak power demands of 75,000 MW.

Another stark example is September, 2017:

Dark blue field is the power that got fed into the grid. Source: www.vernunftkraft.de/, Chart by Rolf Schuster

In September, 2017, the 53,000 MW of installed wind power capacity was able to deliver almost nothing for days.

MenschNatur adds that even tripling Germany’s current installed capacity to over 300,00 megawatts would still not be able to fill in the gaps, and often would produce huge surpluses of power that would totally throw the energy markets out of whack.

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The German Green New Deal: “The 12 Commandments To Stop Global Heating” Cornerstone For New Religion:

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German journalist and climate activist Franz Alt delivers climate policy map that supposedly will bring salvation to humanity and the planet.

German ultra-alarmist climate and energy site klimareporter here has posted a road map outline of what alarmists say has to be done in order to rescue the planet from the approaching climate Armageddon (the one that keeps getting postposed every 10 years).

Franz Alt (right) meets the Dalai Lama. Image: Bigialt in Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0

Dubbed “The 12 Commandments To Stop Global Heating”, the one-page plan authored by leading climate activist Franz Alt at first glance may appear to be Germany’s version of a Green New Deal, but it goes far beyond that. While Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s Green New Deal is a shallow-thought laundry list of actions written by a group of activist sophomores having pizza one evening, Franz Alt’s deal could serve as one of the cornerstones of the coming Green Religion.

“The ecological Jesus”

It’s little wonder that someone like Alt is taking on this role. According to Wikipedia, Alt made ecology an extension of his Christian faith over his long career, even authoring a book titled: “Der ökologische Jesus“, in English: The ecological Jesus.

I’ve summed up Alt’s “The 12 Commandments To Stop Global Heating” in English.

The 12 Holy Climate Commandments

1. Thou shall roll back greenhouse gases to zero by 2050!

2. Thou shall permit only renewable energy power plants – beginning immediately!

3. Thou shall permit and register only electric cars beginning in 2025!

4. Thou shall permit only CO2-free industrial complexes and plants beginning in 2025!

Trains and wooden high rises

5. Thou shall reduce meat consumption by two thirds, which will lead to good health!

6. Thou shall build much more public transport and use online conferences (Exception: Climate Conferences and Green Synods)!

7. Thou shall use less land for houses, streets and industry and build zero-CO2-emission high-rises made of wood!

Greening the deserts, planting 1000 billion trees

8.Thou shall make the deserts green and plant 1000 billion trees around the globe!

9. Thou shall elect only Green, climate-protecting officials. Greenocracy instead of democracy. And thou may vote for whom you wish (so long as they’re Green)!

Depopulate

10. Poor nations shall not “be fruitful and multiply”, but rather shall depopulate!

11. Thou shall buy less, and travel by bicycle – or by foot!

12. Thou shall live simply, so that it shall be simpler to live! Thou shall think more, and thou shall resist stupidity and short-sightedness!

Readers of course may scoff at this and dismiss it as senseless rantings of an old man who has gone senile. Yet keep in mind what history tells us: Religions are never created overnight, rather they evolve and refine over generations with scholars putting the pieces together.

Readers should not kid themselves, the Green Religion is coming.

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New Study: Australians Were 600% More Likely To Die From Cold Than Heat During 2000-2009

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According to a comprehensive (305 locations in 10 countries) 2018 study, deaths attributed to extreme heat have been stable to declining in recent decades (1985-2012).  In contrast, deaths attributed to cold weather show “no clear patterns” – neither increasing or decreasing.

Image Source: Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018

Across the globe, recent cold spells have become more and more deadly.

In the UK, for example, there were 50,100 excess deaths due to a prolonged spell of extreme coldduring the winter of 2018, which is the highest mortality number since 1976 for this region.  In contrast, deaths associated with summer heat waves usually only reach into the hundreds or less.

Image Source: The Guardian

Despite Australia’s relatively warm climate, there were about 6 times more attributable cold-related deaths (61.4%) than heat-related deaths (10.6%) during the first decade of the 21st century.

Image Source: Cheng et al., 2019

In Southwest China, like Australia, there were 6 times more deaths attributable to cold weather (4.08%) than to hot weather (0.67%) during the 2009-2016 period, when global temperatures were often said to be “the hottest on record”.

Image Source: Deng et al., 2019

Even for warm-weather India, moderately and extremely cold temperatures had an attributable mortality risk many times greater than moderately and extremely hot temperatures during 2001-2013.

Image Source: Fu et al., 2018

In Spain, the frequency of cold days increased slightly during 1983-2013.  While heat-related deaths decreased in frequency during this time span, cold-related mortality has been increasing.

The authors (Díaz et al., 2019) suggest that increased energy poverty and the high costs to heat homes are a significant reason why cold-attributable deaths have risen in Spain.

Image Source: Díaz et al., 2019

Considering the death toll for cold weather events hasn’t been declining in recent decades, and that cold weather is far more deadly than hot weather, perhaps there should be more of an emphasis on policies and practices that keep citizens safe during cold weather events in this “global warming” era.

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While BBC Corrects Faulty Reports On Ocean Heat, German Media Happy To Leave Audience Misinformed

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When a paper dealing with ocean heat absorption was found to have errors and in need of correction, the BBC reported it to the public. The German media, however, were perfectly content to leave its viewers and readers misinformed.

Controversial paper was forced to be corrected.

====================================================

Dangerous Groupthink

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated by P. Gosselin)

At the end of October 2018, Resplandy et al. published a study on ocean heat in Nature. Nic Lewis quickly discovered errors in the calculations (we reported here in the blog). The authors acknowledged the error and are now working on an improved version. On the publisher’s side a corresponding note was added:

19 November 2018: Editor’s Note: We would like to alert readers that the authors have informed us of errors in the paper. An implication of the errors is that the uncertainties in ocean heat content are substantially underestimated. We are working with the authors to establish the quantitative impact of the errors on the published results, at which point in time we will provide a further update.”

That’s how science works. A good example of how to deal professionally with a mistake.

The BBC reported on the incident in a transparent manner. The German press, on the other hand, preferred to withdraw into its shell and conceal the incident.

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Warming Predictions Defied: Japan Winters Cool, Great Lakes Ice Grows And Cal Snow Pack Hits Record

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Japan winters are cooling

The Pacific island nation of Japan refuses to obey climate scientists’ forecasts of warming and ignore climate alarmists and their chorus of doomsday shrieks. Climate trends are moving the other way.

Now that February has ended, the 2018/19 winter is now in the books. We’ve tabulated the winter temperature data for Japan going back 32 years. The following chart tells a story that was not supposed to happen:

Japan’s mean winter temperature has been falling for more than 30 years, according to the data from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA).

While alarmists insist it’s heating up everywhere, the reality is actually just the opposite, and not just in Japan.

Finland is cooling

The Scandinavian country of Finland, which extends up into the Arctic, also shows no signs of warming at all since December, 1988.


Data Source: JMA

The six stations with complete datasets in Finland are plotted above. Overall the average of the 6 stations shows there’s been a cooling trend (Linear Trend). Maybe that’s why Hadley’s data for Finland stops at 2011. Now we have to go to Japan to get data for Finland!

Great Lakes winter ice cover rising

Over North America, we see similar patterns of cooling. Though the NOAA likes to claim the Great Lakes ice cover is dwindling, it forgets to mention that it’s been robustly increasing over the past 20 years!

Chart source: NOAA.

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi here tweeted he expects Great Lakes sea ice cover to grow even further in the next 7 to 10 days.  Currently it stands at 71%:

Chart: NOAA

Once the final data for maximum ice cover for2019 are available, it will only boost the recent upward trend. No warming here in 20 years.

To the NOAA’s credit, they do write that natural cycles are likely behind it, noting, “This variability occurs due to the randomness of the weather, but also larger climate patterns like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).”

California snow pack hits all-time record!

Moving on to California, which just recently was deemed to be in a “permanent drought” here as well we see that doomsday predictions are fake.

The American Thinker here reports, “The California Department of Water Resources’ third snow survey for 2019 revealed that snow depths and water content equaled the state’s all-time record level for February as new storms roll in.”

“The last day of February recording near the Sierra Tahoe Ski Resort revealed 113 inches of snow depth and dense snow water equivalent (SWE) of 43.5 inches, or about 153 percent average snow pack for February,” the American Thinker reports.

The DWR expects more new storms to hit next week, which will add further to the snow pack.

Also L.A. failed to reach 21°C in February!

Now warnings of flooding!

In January 2018, California was seeing “severe drought levels” when the snow depth was just 13.5 inches. Experts warned that California might be caught in a permanent drought. But the heavy recent precipitation was wiped out the drought conditions, and the National Weather Service says a weak El Niño will be bringing California more precipitation over the next two months.

Now authorities are warning of potential floods.

The American Thinker adds: “The El Niño storms could bring the dreaded “Pineapple Express” that can “wallop” California with as much as five inches of warm rain in a single day.”

Read more: www.americanthinker.com
Follow: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

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