Leading German Scientists: Record Low February 2022 Antarctic Sea Ice Statistically Has “No Particular Relevance”

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Silencing the alarm: After barely beating sea ice the lows recorded in 1993, 1997 and 2017, German scientists say Antarctic record low of 2022 statistically has “no particular relevance”. 

The most recent and outstanding German language Klimaschau video evaluates the Antarctic sea ice trend over the satellite measurement period, i.e. since 1978. Two press releases from renowned institutes presented are really worth mentioning.

Earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice dipped to a record low for the satellite period, after having seen an overall rise over the 40 year period. Some media outlets seized on the record low as evidence of a warming planet (after having been silent for decades).

Antarctica February mean sea ice extent. Image: AWI, University of Bremen, cropped here.

Since 1978, the February minimum has fluctuated about the 3 million square kilometer mark before dipping to the new record low earlier this year, barely beating the lows recorded in 1993, 1997 and 2017. Note how the 2000s saw record highs. So what has happened since 2015?

A number of researchers point to natural oceanic and atmospheric cycles as the cause behind the recent drop.

Others report that the record low is of no statistical significance. For example, the meereisportal.de/seaiceportel.de — operated by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative, the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen — reports:

It is well established that there is a pronounced variability – on a decadal and even centennial scale – in the oceanic and atmospheric conditions that influence the Antarctic sea ice (Latif et al., 2013). Consequently, this individual record value has no particular relevance in a statistical sense.”

Annual sea ice max rising

Moreover, Antarctic sea ice maximum has shown a modest linear trend rise over the satellite period.

Cropped here.

“Largely stable until mid-century”

So far, there are absolutely no evident signs of any danger pertaining to Antarctic sea ice loss over the coming years. The Alfred Wegener Institute, for example wrote in a press release earlier this year:

‘We used a broad range of configurations for our simulations. In the process, it became clear that only those simulations with a high-resolution description of the Southern Ocean encircling the Antarctic produced delayed sea-ice loss similar to what we are seeing in reality,’ says Rackow. ‘When we then extended the model into the future, even under a highly unfavourable greenhouse-gas scenario the Antarctic sea-ice cover remains largely stable until mid-century.’ “

The AWI press release also admits that presently the climate models still are not capable of reliably simulating the Antarctic:

‘Our study supports the hypothesis that climate models and projections of the Antarctic sea ice will be far more reliable as soon as they are capable of realistically simulating a high-resolution ocean, complete with eddies,’ says Rackow.”

Summary: it’s going to take a lot more years and reams of data before we get an idea of what’s really going on at the South Pole.




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Continued Use Of Combustion Vehicles Leads To ‘Much Lower’ Lifetime CO2 Emissions Than Driving EVs

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A new study finds “the total CO2 emissions will be much lower with continued use of the old but operational combustion car instead of buying a new electric one.”

Image Source: Neugebauer et al., 2022

It has long been assumed that replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric vehicles (EV) will lead to dramatically lower CO2 emissions.

But after analyzing the CO2 emissions associated with producing an EV,  the EV battery manufacture and replacement every ~5 years, the power supply of the charging stations (whether coal, gas, or wind/solar), scientists (Neugebauer et al., 2022) have determined that an EV emits only 8% less CO2 over its lifetime than an ICE vehicle does in a country with an electrical grid energy mix like Poland has.

But even an 8 percent CO2 emissions “savings” by switching to driving an EV may be an overly optimistic scenario. With the average annual driving distance in Europe about 7500 km/year per vehicle, it would take 12 years of driving the same EV to realize a net CO2 emissions reduction relative to just continuing to drive an ICE vehicle. (Nearly all EV owners purchase replacements well before 12 years have elapsed.)

Worse, if an ICE vehicle is driven only 4000 km/year there is no scenario – no matter how many years an EV owner drives her car – when replacing an ICE vehicle with an EV will ever realize a CO2 emissions “savings” relative to continuing to drive the ICE vehicle.

And in the case of EVs powered by electricity derived from coal combustion (which is the primary electrical power source in countries like China), the CO2 emissions are “more than 10% higher for the electric car” compared to an ICE vehicle. (In China, over 13% of vehicles are electric.)

In sum, the old, reliable internal combustion engine may actually be better for CO2 emission reduction scenarios than the “green” vehicles favored by climate change activists and governments.

“Ultimately, the replacement of an electric car every five years with a new model, from the point of view of cumulative CO2 emissions and based on our calculations and simulations, will result in more CO2 emissions than the consistent use of an old combustion car for the remainder of the vehicle life cycle.”
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GFS Analysis Shows Zero Warming: For Every Hot-Spot On The Planet, There’s Also Been A Cold-Spot

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By Die kalte Sonne

Currently much is being reported on extreme heat reaching from North Africa to Europe. In some places in Morocco and Spain, new temperature records for May have been set.

However, it’s worth taking a look at the whole world, because in addition to regions that are clearly too warm, there are also the exact opposite. They’re marked with yellow on this overview from Climatereanalyzer.

Image: Screenshot Climatereanalyer.org

For example, the U.S. state of Colorado recorded snow in May, as reported by the Denver Post.

Brazil is also experiencing unusual cold. Mercopress reports record cold for the capital Brasilia, which is located far inland. The paper quotes meteorologist Estael Sias as explaining the cold snap as a result of climate change.

An unprecedented cold wave in Brazil for the month of May has been labeled a threat both to the country’s thousands of homeless people and also to crops, it was reported Thursday.

A 1.4°C mark in Brasilia Thursday became the coldest temperature in the city’s history since it was founded in 1960, with over a month to go before the official beginning of Winter in the southern hemisphere (June 21).

Sao Paulo also recorded a most unusual temperature of 6.6°C Wednesday, the second-lowest for the month of May since 1990, when it hit -4°C.

The abrupt drop in temperature is due to Cyclone Yakecan, of “anomalous trajectory”, which dragged an air current from Antarctica and “spread it over the interior of South America,” meteorologist Estael Sias explained. Sias also said these “severe and most anomalous” climatic events were “a consequence of climate change.”

Overall, however, the anomaly is 0 degrees worldwide, as can be seen from the map.

Climatreanalyzer also calculates with a reference value from 1979-2000, but at that time it was colder on Earth. Compared to the current reference value it could even mean a cooling. Important: This is a purely cut-off date consideration!




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Climate Change At Bottom Of List Of Worries For German Households, Comprehensive 8-Year Survey Shows

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“Surprising results”: Germans are much more worried about the economy, peace and health than they are about “climate change”, a comprehensive series of surveys reveals. 

Part 3 of the most recent German Klimaschau here looks at five recent surveys of some 2000 German private households conducted since 2012 by market research group FORSA. The surveys were commissioned by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research.

The results were published in a paper authored by Manuel Frondel et al, May, 2021 in Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft (Journal for Energy Management). The title of the study in English: “Perception of Climate Change in Germany: A long-term survey of private households.”

The main purpose of course was probably to determine just how much concern and anxiety exist among the German population with regards to climate change. Are they now ready to relinquish their liberties and prosperity in exchange for the illusion of better weather?

One of the survey questions was: “There are many challenges that people worldwide are confronted with. Please indicate how important you personally view the following challenges.”

Respondents were able to rate the various challenges using a scale of 1 to 5

1 = not important at all
2 = somewhat unimportant
3 = moderately important
4 = rather important
5 = very important.

According to the Klimaschau, the results “were surprising.”

Climate change was rated by the 2000 households as being among the least of their worries. More important were issues concerning health, war and social equality. Over the 8-year period, worries over climate change barely changed, despite all the XR, FFF and Greta Thunberg publicity.

And with the current spiraling inflation, energy shortages and other supply chain woes, “climate change” likely has fallen even lower on the list of worries by German private households today, and is probably very near dead last.

When the persons surveyed were asked to rate the challenges with respect to how relevant they were to their families, “climate change” did indeed land dead last.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that the authors believe Germans may in fact not be open to paying more on climate change, especially in view that electricity prices in the country are the world’s highest.




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The Southwest Atlantic To West Antarctic Peninsula Region Has Been Cooling Since The 1990s

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Scientists continue to document a sea surface cooling in the vast waters above Antarctica.

As recently as a few thousand years ago the Sub-Antarctic (South Georgia) region was 5 to 10°C warmer than it is today (Xia et al., 2020).

Image Source: Xia et al., 2020

About 1,000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period) Antarctica was still “substantially warmer than present” and the Southern Ocean waters were sufficiently ice-free that elephant seals could breed in the Ross Sea, or near the coast of south-central Antarctica’s Victoria Land.

Today this region is so much colder and the sea ice so thick that elephant seals must travel 2,400 kilometers north of where they used to breed 1,000 years ago just to find sea ice-free waters (Koch et al., 2019Hall et al., 2006).

Image Source: Koch et al., 2019

Image Source: Hall et al., 2006

And now some new studies (Atkinson et al., 2022, Toolsee and Lamont, 2022) document a cooling/non-warming  trend in the southwest Atlantic and/or Sub-Antarctic region has commenced in the last few decades. The cooling follows a long-term warming trend that lasted from the 1920s to 1990s.

Image Source: Atkinson et al., 2022
Image Source: Toolsee and Lamont, 2022
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German Conservationists Score Win In Battle To Protect 1000-Year Old “Grimm’s Fairytale Forest” From Green Insanity

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The German state of Hesse has one of Europe’s largest contiguous and undisturbed forest areas: the Reinhardswald, also known as the “treasure house of European forests” or “Grimm’s fairytale forest”. 

The legal fight to rescue the treasured forest from windpark industrialization has begun. 

Though the mass environmental crime has already begun, conservationists are beginning to mobilize in earnest. Image: Rettetdenreihandswwald.de.

20,000,000 square meters to be deforested

Tragically, green energy zealots have managed to gain approval for the construction of wind turbines on 7 so-called priority areas with a total of about 2000 hectares (= 20 million m²) in the thousand-year-old Reinhardswald.

The first 18 turbines have recently been approved, see map here. But approved is not built. Several lawsuits have since been filed. Plans are already underway on other areas in the Reinhardswald: 10 turbines are to be built on the KS26 location, 9 more on KS14.

More than 50 gigantic wind turbines planned

And that would be only the beginning: Three areas are available beyond that. In total, 50 or more of these gigantic wind turbines could be built in the Reinhardswald.

The rescue begins

Fortunately, the greed and enviro-criminal behavior is finally being met with stiff resistance from German conservationists. The battle to save the famous forest will be a long one. Finally there’s been a bit of good news.

=================================

COURT STOPS WIND INDUSTRY IN REINHARDSWALD

By Rettet den Reinhardswald

The construction of the largest wind industrial area in Hesse in the heart of the 1000-year-old Reinhardswald has been stopped by the courts (for the time being). Lack of species protection precautions is only one of many conflict issues that make this insane project including 14 km of road construction impossible

The excavators were already set to go, but your commitment and donations have paid off! The construction of the huge wind industry area in one of the last, undisturbed forest areas in Germany has been stopped by a court ruling. The clearing of the forest areas, i.e. the forcible removal of tree roots from the sensitive ecosystem of the forest floor, has been halted for the time being.

All in all, the killing of the strictly protected dormouse in the 1000-year-old forest is only one of numerous problems because of which several environmental associations and communities have filed a complaint with the Administrative Court in Kassel.

In addition, there are numerous other violations of the permit conditions, e.g. the failure to comply with the requirements for amphibian protection. With our own eyes, we documented, among other things, huge rainwater-filled channels in the vicinity of the construction areas, which were populated with more than 40 amphibians (strictly protected Alpine newts, threadfin newts) and reported them to the Kassel Regional Council. Only a few days later we found these biotopes driven through and filled up (see photos). There is no trace of the newts….

Ruling: https://verwaltungsgerichtsbarkeit.hessen.de/…/rodung…

Donations to support the lawsuit: https://bit.ly/rdrfbspenden

The wind industry area in the Reinhardswald must be stopped! Hesse’s largest, (still) intact forest needs your help.

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Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998

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A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.

CO2 has risen by about 50 ppm since 1998 (367 to 418 ppm).

Interestingly, upper-air measurements of temperature from balloon-borne sensor radiosonde data, shown below in the image from a new study (Madonna et al., 2022), suggest there was more warming from the early 1980s to late 1990s – when CO2 only rose about 25 ppm (341 to 367 ppm) – than there has been this century.

Radiosonde measurements appear to depict mostly flat temperature trends since 1998 in both the Northern Hemisphere (25°N to 70°N) and tropics (25°S to 25°N).

Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022

About those CO2-Temperature mismatches…

From 1905-1945 annual human CO2 emissions hovered around one gigaton of carbon, or 1 GtC/yr.

But according to the graphical depiction of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) shown in Kennedy et al., 2019, SSTs rose about 0.6°C to 0.7°C during these 40 years.

Emissions grew from 1 to 5 GtC/yr from 1945 to 1975 and then from 5 to 9 GtC/yr from 1975 to 2012. But during these 30- and 37-year periods SSTs cooled -0.1°C and warmed 0.3°C, respectively.

So in the 67 years from 1945 to 2012, net global SST warming was only about 0.2°C (0.03°C per decade) even though human CO2 emissions exploded from 1 to 9 GtC/yr during these decades, whereas the global SST warming was about ~0.65°C (0.16°C per decade) in the 40 years from 1905 to 1945 when CO2 emissions were a relatively flat 1 GtC/yr.

If human CO2 emissions were driving Earth’s surface temperature trends, why is there such a mismatch between the trajectory of the emissions versus the surface temperatures?

Image (global SSTs, top) Source: Kennedy et al., 2019
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DWD Dives Deep In The Archives To 1961-1900 Reference Period To Claim April 2022 Was “Somewhat Too Warm”

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Germany’s DWD national weather service has reported the data results for Germany for April, 2022.

“Record snow” in some regions helped cool April 2022 in Germany. Illustration photo only. Photo: Copyright P. Gosselin

Heavy snow, hard frosts

The first two weeks of the Easter month were fickle and varied bringing stormy episodes, heavy snow in some regions, hard night frosts and the first days of summer temperatures. Then, during the second ten days of the month, dry and stable weather prevailed. This was followed by a sunny Easter period and signs of the flora and fauna continuing to awake after winter. A small depression over the south at the end of the month was a gradual indication of the coming period of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

1.2°C cooler than the valid climate mean

Compared to the currently applicable 1991–2020 reference period, the April 2022 was 1.2 degrees COOLER than the mean. But why does the DWD claim in its press release to the media that April was all in all “somewhat too warm”?

Using an ancient, cooler reference period

To do this the German DWD weather agency neither used the now expired 1981 – 2010 reference period nor the the 1971-2000 period to make the comparison, but rather it went deep in the archives to the 1961 – 1990 period.  Only this way were they able to finally say April, 2022, was 0.4°C warmer than the mean.  These are the tricks the DWD pulls in order to fabricate a press release to call an otherwise cool month a “warm” one.

During the second ten days of the month, the figures settled around the average for April. The lowest temperature nationwide was measured on April 4th in Meßstetten on the Swabian Alb (-14.6°C). The highest monthly temperature of 26.0 °C was recorded on April 13th in Wolfach 60 km further west in the central part of the Black Forest.

“Record depths of snow”

With around 55 liters per square meter (l/m²), precipitation in April was just under 5 per cent less than the average precipitation of 58 l/m² recorded during the ancient 1961–1990 reference period. Low pressure brought plenty of precipitation during the first ten days of the month and even saw record depths of snow in the central area.

Sunny coastal regions and cloudy low mountain ranges

At 195 hours, the sunshine duration in April was around 20 per cent higher than the average figure of 154 hours for the ancient 1961–1990 period. Compared to 1991–2020, the deviation was 5 per cent higher than normal. After a number of dull days, the sunshine after Easter made up for lost ground. Coastal areas were particularly sunny in April, recording over 200 hours of sunshine. The Baltic Sea coast even received over 250 hours whereas the central low mountains saw much less with 150 hours.

All the monthly values stated in this press release are provisional figures and the data used for the last two days of the month are based on forecasts.

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Leaked EU Document: Citizens, Industry May See Severe Gas Rationing Coming Autumn, Potential Economic Collapse

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Leaked EU document on gas supply

By Blackout News

Russia has already suspended gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay roubles. The same threatens all European countries. The EU is therefore asking countries to share gas if Russia stops supplying it. The Spanish newspaper El País has now published the contents of a leaked document.

EU wants to shut down industry first in case of gas shortage

The European Commission plans to approve an energy-saving plan on 18 May to deal with a possible sudden disruption of Russian gas supplies. Brussels warns that in an emergency the measures will affect almost all EU partners. Even countries with other sources of supply than Russia would have to share their gas with the countries affected by the cut. In addition, Brussels is calling for energy rationing to start with industry. Companies in a country with full supply should not have a competitive advantage over countries affected by a limitation by Moscow.

States can introduce their own gas supply contingency plans

Brussels will use the Security of Supply Regulation, in place since 2017, to enforce measures to ensure the supply of sufficient gas to protected customers, such as private households and social institutions in all countries. Each affected country can declare a state of emergency and introduce its own rationing rules at national level, according to the regulations. In addition, countries with supply problems can invoke the solidarity clause provided for in the Community regulation. This could force their neighbours to meet their needs.

Other key points:

In the event of a full Russian gas cut:

  • Containment measures would be taken in almost all EU countries.
  • .Consumption would first be reduced in the industrial sector.
  • In an emergency, the states can impose rationing or suspension of supplies.
  • EU believes it can replace two thirds of Russian gas
  • EU calling on private households to turn down thermostat coming winter

Read entire article at Blackout News (English) here




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“Russia Exporting More Oil Than Before War”…India, China Snapping Up Tankers Of Oil At Large Discounts

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Meanwhile western countries are getting pummeled by inflation, shaky supply chains, economic pain. 

German energy site Blackout News here reports that Russia’s oil exports remain unfazed despite the embargos by western countries.

“In the second month of the war on Ukraine, Russia exported more oil than a year earlier, despite the oil embargo, notes Blackout News. “According to the report, Russian oil is going to Asia in tankers. Although Russia is giving a hefty discount, given the drastic increase in prices, revenues have barely dropped from last year.”

So who is snapping up the oil? India, the world’s third-largest oil importer – all thanks to ” heavy discounts of up to $40 per barrel”. Still, Russia is making enough cash to keep the state afloat.

7 million barrels exported DAILY

To give some scale of the huge volume of oil Russia produces. Blackout News adds:

“In 2021, Russia produced about 10.5 million barrels of crude oil and oil products daily. Of that, 7 million barrels a day went into exports. This is roughly equivalent to 13 percent of the world’s oil trade. Of this, 2.7 million barrels of oil and 1.5 million barrels of oil products went to Europe before the war. This represents more than half of Russia’s exports. Much of this was transported by pipeline and rail.”

Blackout News also writes that though Chinese state-owned companies are “holding back” on doing oil deals with Russia, “private Chinese oil companies are already buying up large quantities of Russian oil at deep discounts, according to a report in the Financial Times.”




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New Study: Half The 2000-2019 Global Ocean Warming Has Been From Internal Fluxes, Not Surface Forcing

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Since 2000 there has been a natural reduction in net air-sea fluxes at the same time there has been rapid warming in the Indian Ocean. This affirms anthropogenic surface forcing cannot explain the recent warming in at least half the global ocean.

The Indian Ocean covers approximately 20% of the ocean surface, but this basin accounts for one-half of the overall warming in the global ocean’s top 700 meters from 2000 to 2019 (McMonigal et al., 2022). The Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sectors have accumulated much less heat content in the last two decades.

It is often assumed that increases in ocean heat content can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas surface forcing. But scientists have pointed out that internal ocean processes and natural heat transport (circulation) can explain decadal-scale warming (and cooling) trends in the global ocean.

For example, Large and Yeager (2012) determined that the global sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend during the 1984-2006 period can be predominantly explained by “diminished ocean cooling due to vertical ocean processes” rather than anthropogenic climate change.

“A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period.”

Image Source: Large and Yeager (2012)

Likewise, McMonigal and colleagues have now determined the 0-700 m warming trend in the Indian Ocean “has been driven by significant changes in oceanic fluxes and not by surface forcing.” In other words, it is not the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration increases driving warming, but “the ocean has been driving a rapid increase in Indian Ocean heat content” because the “change must be due to the gyre circulation.”

Image Source: McMonigal et al., 2022

And if natural processes in ocean heat transport can explain warming in the Indian Ocean, it is not a stretch to assume the same explanation can be applied for warming trends in the rest of the global ocean too.

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A “Weakening Warming Trend Of The Last 40 Years Is Apparent”, Says German Expert

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Fritz Vahrenholt: The transition to green energies and the missing warming

Dear ladies and gentlemen,

During the energy crisis that has become visible in Germany and Europe over the past few months, things have gotten quieter about the supposedly imminent climate emergency. On the one hand, energy prices and security of supply have pushed the climate issue into the background. On the other hand, a weakening of the warming trend of the last 40 years is apparent.

.

The temperature curve of the satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama UAH has been oscillating between -0.2 and 0.4 degrees for 20 years and seems to have remained stable since 2015, as shown in the next graph in the enlargement. (Source: woodfortrees). The mean value is drawn in green- it shows a slightly decreasing trend since 2015. Why hasn’t this been reported?

What are the reasons for this stagnation?

CO2 concentrations in the air have continued to rise unabated. It is true that global annual CO2 emissions have been more or less constant for some years now, at 40 billion tons of CO2. Slightly more than half is absorbed by the oceans and plants, so that currently each year the equivalent of about 2.5 ppm CO2 is added to the air concentration. In 2015, there were 401 ppm of CO2 in the air; in 2021, there were 416 ppm. At this rate, by the way, we would never reach the IPCC’s scary scenarios of 800 to 1000 ppm in 2100.

No, the lack of warming must have other reason

What has been the amount of natural warming in the last 30 years?
And how big is the natural cooling in the next 30 years?

A change in global temperature can also happen naturally. We know that clouds have decreased by about 2% after the turn of the millennium, and that for the last ten years cloud cover has been stable at a low level. Second, there are oceanic temperature cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO, which increased sharply from 1980 to the beginning of this millennium (by 0.5 degrees, after all), has remained at maximum since then, and is now weakening slightly again (see next graph).

The United States Weather and Oceanographic Administration, NOAA, writes that the AMO can amplify anthropogenic warming in the warm phase and make it disappear in the cold phase. According to NOAA, the AMO is a naturally occurring change in North Atlantic temperatures that has occurred for at least 1000 years with alternating warm and cold phases of 20-40 years. Add to this the weakening solar radiation since 2008, and further significant warming beyond 1.5 degrees is unlikely in the next 30 years.

Sea ice melt has stalled

The stagnant trend of temperatures that has been observed for several years can also be seen in the halted decline in Arctic sea ice extent reported by the European Copernicus program in March (see next graph

This is actually good news.

Wouldn’t it be time for climate researchers to bring these trends to the attention of politicians and the public? After all, politicians are currently readjusting the priorities of energy supply. While until last year’s price explosion and the aftermath of the Ukraine war it was apparently taken for granted that climate impacts would be the sole determining factor for energy policy, we are all now being made aware of the importance of security of supply and price trends.

However, German policymakers are still reacting inadequately. They believe they can solve the problem of self-generated energy shortages due to the double phase-out of coal and nuclear energy by simply building more wind farms and solar plants. It must always be remembered that in 2021 the share of wind and solar energy was just over 5% of primary energy supply (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables). Even in a good windy year, it would not be much more than 6%.

Politicians do not have the necessary courage to repeal the coal phase-out law, to stop the nuclear phase-out, to lift the natural gas fracking ban and the ban on CO2 capture at coal-fired power plants. Not yet.

Gas-fired power plants like the one in Leipzig are still being built to replace coal-fired power plants with domestic lignite. Industry is already further ahead. Volkswagen has postponed the conversion of two of its own coal-fired power plants into gas-fired power plants indefinitely. This statement by CEO Diess was not widely reported in Germany, but it was abroad.

The U.S. government is also repositioning itself. John Kerry, the U.S. government’s climate envoy, for whom the 1.5-degree target was previously the sole political guideline, is now putting things into perspective and, in view of skyrocketing energy prices, saying that 1.8 degrees should be quite sufficient as a target. China, India and Southeast Asia, whose growth path is threatened by the price explosion, are practicing a renaissance of coal production.

That’s where we should listen when Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg says: “It’s unrealistic to bring global emissions to zero by 2050… a 2.5 degree world is still better than a 3.5 degree world.”

Let us reassure Mr. Marotzke: a 2.5 degree world will not be achieved in this century because natural variations in climate dampen anthropogenic warming. Had this been adequately accounted for in climate models, we would all have been spared much public panic and flawed policy decisions.

With best wishes

Fritz Vahrenholt




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