September 2015 In Austria Comes In Cooler Than Normal…”Snow In Many Valleys”

Yesterday we posted here how Germany’s DWD national weather service reported that September 2015 was cooler than normal. The United Kingdom saw one of its coolest Septembers in decades.

The Austrian ZAMG national meteorological services released the temperature results for September 2015 here. Looks like the country is getting an early start to the ski season. It writes:

The preliminary monthly result of the ZAMG: September 2015 pretty much hit the multi-year mean (0.1 °C below normal). Rain and snow were 20 percent above normal. The sun shone 15 percent less than it usually does over an average September.

A September with wide temperature fluctuations has come to an end. On September 1 the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) measured the hottest September day in the history of measurements: 36.0 °C in Pottschach. In the second half of September a cold mass of air brought snow down to many valleys. Early on 24 September in Bad Gastein (S, 1092 m), for example, there was 8 cm of snow. At the Rudolfshütte in the Hohen Tauern (S, 2317 m) there was 45 centimeters of snow. ‘On average, however, the extreme temperatures yielded a very average month,’ says ZAMG climatologist Alexander Orlik. “Looking at Austria as a whole September 2015 was 0.1°C below the multi-year normal.'”

Urban heat island effect in Vienna?

Interestingly the ZAMG data show that remote locations saw cool anomalies, for example with Achenkirch (T, 904 m) coming in at
0.8°C below normal. The warmest anomaly was recorded in the city center of Vienna (W, 177 m), coming in at 0.3°C above the long-term mean for September.

Central Europe Sees Cool September…Germany Mean Temperature 0.5°C Colder Than Normal

Snowfall …in September!

 WetterTicker - Wetter live verfolgen Senden Sie uns Ihre Bilder/Videos 15:49 Uhr 23. September Wetterbericht: Morgen wieder freundlicher Das Wetter hellt sich ab morgen wieder auf. Verbreitet bleibt es fast den ganzen Tag über trocken und die Temperaturen steigen etwas an. Und zwei Gebiete bekommen voraussichtlich den meisten Sonnenschein ab... Mehr Details im aktuellen Wetterbericht 14:51 Uhr 23. September Alpen: Auf 1000 Meter Höhe weiß! Überraschend tief hat es im österreichischen Bad Gastein herunter geschneit: In dem Wintersportort am Alpenhauptkamm ist es heute auf nur 1000 Meter Höhe weiß geworden. Quelle: wie vo

A webcam recorded this image on September 23 at 2:41 p.m. in Austria in Bad Gastein (1000 meter elevation). Source: here.

Listening to the media, I kept getting the impression that September 2015 in Germany had been a warm one (though my heating costs tell a different story). Yes, I kept hearing weathermen saying how mild it was, with summerlike temperatures. But now the reality comes out.

Germany’s national weather service Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) has just issued the preliminary results for September 2015. It turns out the month in Germany was cooler than normal. The results are tabulated from data collected by the country’s approximately 2000 weather stations scattered across the country.

The DWD writes how September was unusually uneventful and just plain normal, after an “extremely hot and dry summer“. It also announced that the drought period that gripped most of the country since since February has ended in the north and central parts of the country, yet lingers on over the east and the south (an area with a size of something like Maine).

The DWD sums up the temperature:

In total the temperature, precipitation and sunshine were below the long-term mean. […] September 2015 had a mean temperature of 13.0° Celsius, 0.3°C cooler than the mean of the 1961 – 1990 international reference period. Compared to the 1981 – 210 reference period the deviation was -0.5°C.”

Especially the northwest part of Germany was cool in September as the temperature failed to reach the 25°C mark during the entire month, with surface frost appearing in many regions late in the month and snow at higher elevations (see photo above). In general Northwest Europe and Scandinavia saw unusually cold conditions this summer, see here and here.

The average temperature for 2015 so far in Germany over the first 9 months of this year has been 10.77°C. By comparison last year (2014) the average temperature after the first 9 months was 11.42°C. 2014 in Germany was the hottest on record.

With October looking to be perhaps dominated by a high pressure over Scandinavia (GFS model), 2015 will fall well below last year’s wild anomaly.

The overall trend for Germany over the past 25 years remains slight cooling. There has not been any statistically meaningful warming since 1990.

UPDATE: And Great Britain has just had its 3rd coldest September in 42 years. See here.

This Morning’s Temperature Readings From Berlin’s 7 Stations Profoundly Illustrate Urban Heat Island Effect!

Berlin is Germany’s largest city, and in and around it there are 7 weather stations reporting to the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany’s national weather service.

Earlier today Germans and Berliners woke up to one of it’s coolest nights so far this fall with temperatures around the freezing point. If you asked people in Berlin what the temperature was this morning at 6 a.m., you’d get very different answers. Why? Obviously because of the siting of the thermometers.

Website Wetterkontor here showed the readings taken this morning at Berlin’s 7 official weather stations located about the city. Below is a cropped table of these 7 stations:

Berlin Oct 2

Source: Cropped from Wetterkontor.

As you can see, depending on where the temperature reading was taken, the temperature ranged from a low of -2.3°C to +3.2°C recorded at Kaniswall and Marzahn respectively. That’s a span of 5.3°C!

Clearly the urban heat island (UHI) effect is very real and thermometer readings taken in urban areas are significantly skewed upwards.

I decided to plot these results on a map depicting the greater Berlin area below. We plainly see that the stations located near the city center are warmer.

Berlin Oct 2015

In general, the further out you get from the city center, the lower the temperatures become. This gives real meaning to “cooler temperatures in outlying areas“, which we often hear from local weather reports.

What’s the take-home message? Clearly surface readings entail lots of uncertainty, and it’s probably a good idea to fall back on the satellite readings for accuracy. Little wonder that the 20th century showed a general global warming, especially when we consider that most of the stations have been moved next to large airports and big cities made of concrete, steel and asphalt.

Of course the above are readings taken for only one morning. It would be more interesting and telling to compare the overall long-term trend of each station. But I think it’s safe to say that most of us have a pretty good idea of what those results would be.


It’s the Sun, Stupid! Growing Number Of Studies Show Oceanic Cycles (Climate) Driven By Solar Activity

In our last post Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse looked at solar activity and the impacts on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Today they present a post here on more papers on the NAO.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) couple to solar activity: New studies find a time-lag of 3 years

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/ edited by P Gosselin)

In our book “The Neglected Sun” we describe how climate is driven significantly by ocean and solar cycles. The climate science establishment prefers to ignore all of this. But lately things have turned around, as a number of scientists have been researching the subject and are publishing on this almost on a weekly basis. It is indeed becoming increasingly clear that ocean cycles are in fact coupled to a certain extent with solar activity. An important paper on this was published in the Environmental Research Letters in May, 2015. A team of scientists led by M. B. Andrews of the Hadley Centre of the British Met Office examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity cycles. It has long been known that the NAO swings to the positive mode when solar activity is strong. Conversely negative NAO values often fall when solar activity is weak. For more information of the NAO see Wikipedia here.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity. Unlike the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, the NAO is a largely atmospheric mode. It is one of the most important manifestations of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic and surrounding humid climates.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is closely related to the Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode (NAM), but should not be confused with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Westerly winds blowing across the Atlantic bring moist air into Europe. In years when westerlies are strong, summers are cool, winters are mild and rain is frequent. If westerlies are suppressed, the temperature is more extreme in summer and winter leading to heat waves, deep freezes and reduced rainfall. A permanent low-pressure system over Iceland (the Icelandic Low) and a permanent high-pressure system over the Azores (the Azores High) control the direction and strength of westerly winds into Europe. The relative strengths and positions of these systems vary from year to year and this variation is known as the NAO. A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in Central Europe and its Atlantic facade. In contrast, if the index is low (NAO-), westerlies are suppressed, northern European areas suffer cold dry winters and storms track southwards toward the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.”

Andrews and his colleagues tried to determine if there is an empirical NA/solar relation in a simulation model. In earlier attempts the models were unable to get a handle on magnitude of the effect. But this time around the scientists were more successful. They recognized that they had indeed overseen a 3-year time lag with which the NAO follows the sun. Andrews et al also see an indication that other processes play a role – other than the pure atmospheric warming, and the dynamic effects thereof, taken into account up to now. The paper’s abstract follows:

A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009
Numerous studies have suggested an impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with an increased tendency for positive (negative) NAO signals to occur at maxima (minima) of the solar cycle. Climate models have successfully reproduced this solar cycle modulation of the NAO, although the magnitude of the effect is often considerably weaker than implied by observations. A leading candidate for the mechanism of solar influence is via the impact of ultraviolet radiation variability on heating rates in the tropical upper stratosphere, and consequently on the meridional temperature gradient and zonal winds. Model simulations show a zonal mean wind anomaly that migrates polewards and downwards through wave–mean flow interaction. On reaching the troposphere this produces a response similar to the winter NAO. Recent analyses of observations have shown that solar cycle–NAO link becomes clearer approximately three years after solar maximum and minimum. Previous modelling studies have been unable to reproduce a lagged response of the observed magnitude. In this study, the impact of solar cycle on the NAO is investigated using an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model. Simulations that include climate forcings are performed over the period 1960–2009 for two solar forcing scenarios: constant solar irradiance, and time-varying solar irradiance. We show that the model produces significant NAO responses peaking several years after extrema of the solar cycle, persisting even when the solar forcing becomes neutral. This confirms suggestions of a further component to the solar influence on the NAO beyond direct atmospheric heating and its dynamical response. Analysis of simulated upper ocean temperature anomalies confirms that the North Atlantic Ocean provides the memory of the solar forcing required to produce the lagged NAO response. These results have implications for improving skill in decadal predictions of the European and North American winter climate.”

Other modellers also took a closer look at the sun’s control over the North Atlantic Oscillation. In June, 2014, Lin et al. presented a situation of a Atlantic ocean cycle (AMOC) slowdown for the 1915-1935 period in the Climate of the Past Discussion. The authors saw the rise in solar activity after 1914 as a trigger and were able to show the effect in their simulation. The abstract:

An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915–1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM
In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model – Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905–1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50–70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice–albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid–high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

Another paper on the solar impact on North Atlantic cycles – especially the NAO – appeared in the journal Annales Geophysicae. Sfîcă and colleagues reported there in February 2015:

The influence of solar activity on action centres of atmospheric circulation in North Atlantic
We analyse the response of sea level pressure and mid-tropospheric (500 hPa) geopotential heights to variations in solar activity. We concentrate on the Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic in the period 1948–2012. Composite and correlation analyses point to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation and weakening (i.e. becoming more zonal) of the Pacific/North American pattern. The locations of points with lowest and highest sea level pressure in the North Atlantic change their positions between low and high solar activity.

Let’s now move to the Pacific Ocean. Here find the “El Niño–Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) phenomenon. Daniel Howard, Nir Shaviv and Henrik Svensmark are now able to show that the global sea level fluctuations (excluding the long-term trend) is at least 70% controlled by the ENSO and solar activity fluctuations. This team of scientists published their results in May 2015 in the Journal of Geophysical Research:

The solar and Southern Oscillation components in the satellite altimetry data
With satellite altimetry data accumulating over the past two decades, the mean sea level (MSL) can now be measured to unprecedented accuracy. We search for physical processes which can explain the sea level variations and find that at least 70% of the variance in the annually smoothed detrended altimetry data can be explained as the combined effect of both the solar forcing and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The phase of the solar component can be used to derive the different steric and eustatic contributions. We find that the peak to peak radiative forcing associated with the solar cycle is 1.33 ± 0.34 W/m2, contributing a 4.4 ± 0.8 mm variation. The slow eustatic component (describing, for example, the cryosphere and large bodies of surface water) has a somewhat smaller peak to peak amplitude of 2.4 ± 0.6 mm. Its phase implies that warming the oceans increases the ocean water loss rate. Additional much smaller terms include a steric feedback term and a fast eustatic term. The ENSO contributes a peak to peak variation of 5.5 ± 0.8 mm, predominantly through a direct effect on the MSL and significantly less so indirectly through variations in the radiative forcing.”

Also see the works by Joseph Fletcher on the subject of the sun/ENSO.

German Scientists: Models Showing Bitter Winters Are Ahead For Europe …Current Solar Cycle Weakest In 200 Years

The sun in August 2015 and the climatic UV amplifier in the stratosphere

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

In August 2015 solar activity was also weak, only 71% of the mean activity that is usual for this month into the cycle. The solar sunspot number (SSN) was 64.6. The mean for the previous 23 cycles is 91. The course of the current cycle so far is depicted in Figure 1:

Figure 1: The solar sunspot number (SSN) for the current solar cycle number 24 is shown in red; the average of the previous 23 cycles is shown in blue; and the similar solar cycle number 5 is shown in black.

The current cycle increasingly resembles solar cycle no. 5, which took place from 1798 to 1810, i.e. in the middle of the Dalton Minimum. That cycle was very long at 12.6 years, which is what we are expecting for the current cycle. As a rule weak cycles are longer than the cycles that see strong solar activity. The summed up monthly anomalies, i.e. the accumulated monthly differences for the current cycle compared to that of the mean value shown by the blue curve in Figure 1, has been the most negative since the Dalton Minimum.

Figure 2: The accumulated SSN anomalies plotted for all cycles 1-24 compared to the mean. The decline in solar activity since cycle no. 22 (which persisted until 1996) is clear to see.

At this blog we reported on a number of occasions on the relationship between solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Already in our book “The Neglected Sun“ we quoted a paper by Lockwood who found a strong statistical correlation between solar activity, the NAO and cold British winters. Many other studies have since appeared and further confirm this correlation for Northern Europe. As a reminder: The NAO is calculated as the atmospheric air pressure difference between Reykjavik and the Azore.

In September 2015 another paper was published by scientists Katja Matthes and Remi Thieblemont of the Geomar Center for Ocean Research, appearing in Nature Communications. According to their findings the North Atlantic Oscillation lags solar activity by 1 to 2 years. The scientists used a climate model that simulated the atmosphere at an elevation of up to 14o km and thus were able to better account for the effect of UV radiation on the chemistry of the stratosphere, like ozone composition.

Naturally we know that we have to be careful with the results of models. We’ve documented to a great extent the failure of a huge number of numerical models. What is remarkable, however, is that conventional climate research has since found that the impact of the sun on our climate is relevant. Up to now much effort has been expended to talk down the sun’s impact, claiming that the sun’s total solar irradiance (TSI) varies only by about 0.1% during a cycle. But the UV part of the solar radiation spectrum in the stratosphere have huge radiation effects of up 70%! We discuss this in detail in our book The Neglected Sun. In the ozone layer and the ionosphere UV light is converted into warmth and this leads to correspondingly significant temperature changes in the range of several degrees. This warm-up and the increased formation of ozone leads to interrelated mechanisms and changes in circulation in the atmosphere.

Based on ice cores Matthes and Thieblemont could show evidence that years with harsh winters over the northern hemisphere were related to low solar activity (Adolphi et al. 2014). One example are the strong winters that gripped Northern Europe and North America from 2008 to 2010. During those years we found ourselves in a solar minimum.

And when one looks at the development of cosmic radiation since 1984, an increasingly strengthening magnetic field from solar cycle no. 20 (1964-1976) to cycle no. 22  can be seen along with a weakening of cosmic radiation. A reversal of the effect can be seen since solar cycle number 23. Just how large the UV effect or the fluctuating solar magnetic field are on climate is not possible to say at this time. However in the past there is good agreement between the warming phases and high levels of solar activity. The assumption that only CO2 by itself determines the temperature development in this century is in any case very shaky.

Figure 3: Neutron monitor Oulu (Finland) as a measure for cosmic radiation

Political Fraud – Van Ypersele Tries Using “Climate Change” As Excuse For Massive Middle East Policy Incompetence!

Nothing puts the spotlight on Europe’s and USA’s foreign policy debacle better than the Syria crisis and the waves of “refugees” pouring into Europe.

It is a policy catastrophe that will surely multiply in size over the coming months and years ahead, and especially puts European security a risk. Naturally Europe’s leading politicians are desperate to find an excuse. They’ve found one, it appears – so at least has Jean Pascal Van Ypersele, Vice-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): climate change.

Belgian television here presents a clip of Van Ypersele’s view on what is behind the Syrian civil war and refugee crisis. I’ve translated his words from the French to English:

Exactly now is the time to ask questions. You know that there have been a number of studies published over the last months that show the drought in the Middle East and in the region of Syria over many years is probably a factor that amplified in any case the difficulties of the region. It shows very well, this example of Syrian migrants, these Syrian refugees, that the problems are linked to the question of climatic change, that climate change is linked to an entire series of other questions.”

This is one of the most dishonest claims coming from a person who was educated at a Catholic institution. Such people, and our current Pope, really have succeeded in destroying whatever remaining faith I previously had in the Church in the wake of the child molestation affairs.

Such dishonesty and deception just cannot be followed. These totally incompetent leaders flat out refuse to take any responsibility whatsoever – for anything. For them it’s a game of shirk and blame, and it’s just mind-blowingly awful and morally disgusting.


Latest Study Indicates Solar Variability “Dominant Influence On Temperature” …CMIP5 Models Fail

Soon paperRecently a blogger spouted off about the science of the sun’s role on climate, and so the latest paper on the topic published in Earth-Science Reviews last month is timely.

Once again we have a paper, authored by Soon et al, that indicates the sun’s powerful impact on our climate and that CO2 is a minor player. Moreover the paper reaffirms that the 1950s – 1970s cooling was indeed real  and pronounced.

Here’s the abstract with my emphasis added:

Debate over what influence (if any) solar variability has had on surface air temperature trends since the 19th century has been controversial. In this paper, we consider two factors which may have contributed to this controversy:
Several different solar variability datasets exist. While each of these datasets is constructed on plausible grounds, they often imply contradictory estimates for the trends in solar activity since the 19th century.
Although attempts have been made to account for non-climatic biases in previous estimates of surface air temperature trends, recent research by two of the authors has shown that current estimates are likely still affected by non-climatic biases, particularly urbanization bias.

With these points in mind, we first review the debate over solar variability. We summarise the points of general agreement between most groups and the aspects which still remain controversial. We discuss possible future research which may help resolve the controversy of these aspects. Then, in order to account for the problem of urbanization bias, we compile a new estimate of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends since 1881, using records from predominantly rural stations in the monthly Global Historical Climatology Network dataset. Like previous weather station-based estimates, our new estimate suggests that surface air temperatures warmed during the 1880s–1940s and 1980s–2000s. However, this new estimate suggests these two warming periods were separated by a pronounced cooling period during the 1950s–1970s and that the relative warmth of the mid-20th century warm period was comparable to the recent warm period.

We then compare our weather station-based temperature trend estimate to several other independent estimates. This new record is found to be consistent with estimates of Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends, as well as temperature proxy-based estimates derived from glacier length records and from tree ring widths. However, the multi-model means of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model hindcasts were unable to adequately reproduce the new estimate — although the modelling of certain volcanic eruptions did seem to be reasonably well reproduced.

Finally, we compare our new composite to one of the solar variability datasets not considered by the CMIP5 climate models, i.e., Scafetta and Willson, 2014’s update to the Hoyt and Schatten, 1993 dataset. A strong correlation is found between these two datasets, implying that solar variability has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since at least 1881. We discuss the significance of this apparent correlation, and its implications for previous studies which have instead suggested that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide has been the dominant influence.”

In the conclusion the authors write (my emphasis):

If the Hoyt & Schatten reconstruction and our new Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates are accurate, then it seems that most of the temperature trends since at least 1881 can be explained in terms of solar variability, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations providing at most a minor contribution. This contradicts the claim by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that most of the temperature trends since the 1950s are due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Bindoff et al., 2013).”

So add another paper to the growing mountain that indicates the sun is the real driver. The ongoing denial of this is getting ridiculous.

Solar Technology’s Glaring Inferiority …Phileas Fogg’s 19th Century Balloon Beats 21st Century Solar Impulse 2 By Over 300 Days!

A couple of readers have brought up the latest on the Solar Impulse 2 project, the solar-powered plane designed by a couple of Europeans to showcase the “unlimited” potential of solar energy in a “solo flight” around the world. Here’s the latest news.


The Solar Impulse 2 plane was launched from Abu Dhabi, amid much media fanfare, on March 9 this year. Today, almost 200 days later involving 8 legs, it is now stuck in Hawaii and it is not going anywhere. So much for the dream.

It turns out that instead of bringing attention to the technology’s potential, the project has only brightly highlighted solar energy’s shortcomings and the technology’s glaring inferiority. Indeed the plane needs the dimensions of a jumbo jet – just to carry the payload of a car.

Today, some six months later (almost 200 days), we see the solar contraption has yet to even reach the halfway point of it’s planned around the world journey. The plane and its pilots are firmly grounded in Hawaii due to an array of technical problems. In comparison a fossil-fueled jetliner would have completed the trip hundreds of times by now, and that while carrying a payload hundreds of times greater.

Greenhouse gas nightmare

I blogged on Solar Impulse 2 earlier here. We saw that the endeavor had been everything but successful – even at that point – and that it was in fact a greenhouse gas nightmare.

To put the project’s performance in some perspective, let us recall how Jules Verne’s fictional characters Phileas Fogg and his valet Passepartout were able to complete their trip around the world in just 80 days – and that in a balloon back in the 19th century! Today we find ourselves in the 21st century and now around-the-world trips with the “latest pioneering technology” are taking some 500 days. Don’t you just love progress? Passepartout’s and Fogg’s balloon would have long since arrived by now.

Conceivably one almost could make the trip more quickly by foot, over land, and sailboat over sea.

This so-called “pioneering solo flight” in reality involved the burning of tens of thousands of liters of fossil fuels because an entire support crew had to be flown along in a fossil fuel powered jet. The fixed-wing Solar Impulse 2 departed Abu Dhabi on March 9 and was planned to continue to India, China, Hawaii, Phoenix, New York, Morocco before finally coming full circle back to Abu Dhabi – sometime in August, 2015 – and “without emitting any climate gases”.

Wikipedia has since revised the clean plane’s timetable. Now the trip should be completed next year.

During the summer it was reported by a handful of media outlets that the plane had been forced to land in Hawaii because of “irreversible damage” to its lithium ion battery system. Getting the replacements parts for the plane would take months and so the plane would be grounded for 9 months, according to reports.

Not enough sun to power the aircraft

This is not the first setback for the Impulse 2. It has since become obvious that the technology is woefully unfit to handle poor weather conditions. Back in May the pilots had to detour to Japan due to bad weather conditions from a cold front. And now that summer is over, there is not going to be enough sunshine in the northern hemisphere to keep the solar-powered plane flying. The result: an extended months-long stay in Hawaii. So tough can failure be.

The pilots now say they will try to complete the remainder of the trip – sometime later in 2016…very likely well over 500 days after their departure. The latest target. we suppose, is to arrive less than one year late.

How will the team look back and rate the project once it ends? They could take the approach once proposed by one US senator on the Vietnam War debacle: “We should declare victory and get the hell out.” Expect nothing less.


2 More Papers! RUSSIAN ICE CORES Show Powerful Relationship Between Solar Activity And Antarctic Climate!

German scientists Lüning and Vahrenholt bring up two recent papers on what by now is obvious to almost everyone.

The sun drives the climate

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Antarctica is a fantastic place for a research laboratory. A number of research stations are scattered on the continent, including the Russian Vostok station.

Using ice cores, the climate history of the past 11,000 years has been reconstructed in detail. In January 2015 Zhao and Feng published a paper in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. In this paper they compared the temperature development to solar activity. In the temperature curve the scientists found the characteristic cycles that correspond to the solar Suess-de Vries cycle (208 years) and the Eddy cycle (1000 years). What stood out was the slight time delay of 30 to 40 years between the solar trigger and the temperature reaction. The scientists concluded that solar activity fluctuations played a large role in the development of the Antarctic climate.

Here’s the abstract:

Correlation between solar activity and the local temperature of Antarctica during the past 11,000 years
The solar impact on the Earth’s climate change is a long topic with intense debates. Based on the reconstructed data of solar sunspot number (SSN), the local temperature in Vostok (T), and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data of Dome Concordia, we investigate the periodicities of solar activity, the atmospheric CO2 and local temperature in the inland Antarctica as well as their correlations during the past 11,000 years before AD 1895. We find that the variations of SSN and T have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable. These results indicate that solar activity might have potential influences on the long-term change of Vostok’s local climate during the past 11,000 years before modern industry.

Related to this is also a paper by Volobuev, which was published in the May 2014 journal of Climate Dynamics. For the region around the Vostok station the author described a “relatively high climate sensitivity” for the solar temperature drive. Here’s the abstract:

Central antarctic climate response to the solar cycle
Antarctic “Vostok” station works most closely to the center of the ice cap among permanent year-around stations. Climate conditions are exclusively stable: low precipitation level, cloudiness and wind velocity. These conditions can be considered as an ideal model laboratory to study the surface temperature response on solar irradiance variability during 11-year cycle of solar activity. Here we solve an inverse heat conductivity problem: calculate the boundary heat flux density (HFD) from known evolution of temperature. Using meteorological temperature record during (1958–2011) we calculated the HFD variation about 0.2–0.3 W/m2 in phase with solar activity cycle. This HFD variation is derived from 0.5 to 1 °C temperature variation and shows relatively high climate sensitivity per 0.1 % of solar radiation change. This effect can be due to the polar amplification phenomenon, which predicts a similar response 0.3–0.8 °C/0.1 % (Gal-Chen and Schneider in Tellus 28:108–121, 1975). The solar forcing (TSI) is disturbed by volcanic forcing (VF), so that their linear combination TSI + 0.5VF empirically provides higher correlation with HFD (r = 0.63 ± 0.22) than TSI (r = 0.50 ± 0.24) and VF (r = 0.41 ± 0.25) separately. TSI shows higher wavelet coherence and phase agreement with HFD than VF.”

4! New! Papers! Show Sun’s Impact On Global Climate. German Scientists: Sun Is “A Major Climate Factor”

Personally I find it difficult to believe some people are unable to comprehend the sun’s impact on our climate, especially when something like 99 point-something-percent of the earth’s energy comes from the sun. Even a vegetable notices when a cloud blocks out the sun, when the sun sets, or when it doesn’t get very high above the horizon. So I guess when it comes to solar sciences it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to argue that solar deniers are probably even dumber than a plant.

At any rate, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Professor Fritz Vahrenholt bring us the latest literature on the sun’s clear impact on the earth’s climate at their Die kalte Sonne site.

The Sun Drives Climate: The Latest from America

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The sun is a major climate factor – also in America. In May 2014 Gorji Sefidmazgi and colleagues underscored this in a study appearing in the journal Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. The scientists investigated the temperature development of North Carolina over the past 60 years. Here they found that the fluctuations are almost totally explainable by solar and oceanic cycles. Here’s the abstract:

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method
In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950–2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.”

Some months later, in October 2014, a team of scientists led by Erich Osterberg published a study in the Journal of Geophysical Research that examined the influence of solar activity fluctuations on the Aleutian Low in the Gulf of Alaska. The results show: The changes in the Aleutian Low over the past 1500 years correlate strongly with solar activity. Strong solar activity is typically related with a weak Aleutian Low and Tropical La Nina conditions. The abstract:

Mount Logan ice core record of tropical and solar influences on Aleutian Low variability: 500–1998 A.D.
Continuous, high-resolution paleoclimate records from the North Pacific region spanning the past 1500 years are rare; and the behavior of the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure center, the dominant climatological feature in the Gulf of Alaska, remains poorly constrained. Here we present a continuous, 1500 year long, calibrated proxy record for the strength of the wintertime (December–March) ALow from the Mount Logan summit (PR Col; 5200 m asl) ice core soluble sodium time series. We show that ice core sodium concentrations are statistically correlated with North Pacific sea level pressure and zonal wind speed. Our ALow proxy record reveals a weak ALow from circa 900–1300 A.D. and 1575–1675 A.D., and a comparatively stronger ALow from circa 500–900 A.D., 1300–1575 A.D., and 1675 A.D. to present. The Mount Logan ALow proxy record shows strong similarities with tropical paleoclimate proxy records sensitive to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is consistent with the hypothesis that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was characterized by more persistent La Niña-like conditions while the Little Ice Age was characterized by at least two intervals of more persistent El Niño-like conditions. The Mount Logan ALow proxy record is significantly (p < 0.05) correlated and coherent with solar irradiance proxy records over various time scales, with stronger solar irradiance generally associated with a weaker ALow and La Niña-like tropical conditions. However, a step-like increase in ALow strength during the Dalton solar minimum circa 1820 is associated with enhanced Walker circulation. Furthermore, rising CO2 forcing or internal variability may be masking the twentieth century rise in solar irradiance.”

Then a month later, in November 2014, a group of scientists lead by Keyan Fang published a paper appearing in the Journal of Climate, on the relationship between solar activity with the climate development in North America and North America. Using a dataset spanning 600 years the authors show that there is a close coupling between the continents. The abstract:

Covarying Hydroclimate Patterns between Monsoonal Asia and North America over the Past 600 Years
Proxy data with large spatial coverage spanning to the preindustrial era not only provide invaluable material to investigate hydroclimate changes in different regions but also enable studies on temporal changes in the teleconnections between these regions. Applying the singular value decomposition (SVD) method to tree-ring-based field reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) over monsoonal Asia (MA) and North America (NA) from 1404 to 2005, the dominant covarying pattern between the two regions is identified. This pattern is represented by the teleconnection between the dipole pattern of southern–northern latitudinal MA and the dipole of southwest NA (SWNA)–northwest NA (NWNA), which accounts for 59.6% of the total covariance. It is dominated by an antiphase low MA and SWNA teleconnection, driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and is most significant at an interannual time scale. This teleconnection is strengthened (weakened) in periods of increased (decreased) solar forcing and high (low) temperature, which is associated with intensified (weakened) ENSO variability. Additional forcing by SST anomalies in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans appears to be important too.”

Now let’s jump to the southern hemisphere to South America. In June 2015 a group of scientists led by C. Turney of the University of New South Wales in Sydney published a study in the journal Climate of the Past Discussions on the climate history of the Falkland Islands. Using a charcoal record the scientists reconstructed the strength of the westerly airflow over the past 2600 years. Using spectral analysis Turney and his team found the 250-year characteristic cycle, which is in the range of the Suess-de Vries cycle. One fascinating result: The westerly airflow of the Southern Hemisphere blew in sync with the cycles of the sun. Here’s the abstract:

A 250 year periodicity in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over the last 2600 years
Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow has a significant influence on the ocean–atmosphere system of the mid- to high-latitudes with potentially global climate implications. Unfortunately historic observations only extend back to the late nineteenth century, limiting our understanding of multi-decadal to centennial change. Here we present a highly resolved (30 yr) record of past westerly air strength from a Falkland Islands peat sequence spanning the last 2600 years. Situated under the core latitude of Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow, we identify highly variable changes in exotic pollen derived from South America which can be used to inform on past westerly air strength and location. The results indicate enhanced airflow over the Falklands between 2000 and 1000 cal. yr BP, and associated with increased burning, most probably as a result of higher temperatures and/or reduced precipitation, comparable to records in South America. Spectral analysis of the charcoal record identifies a 250 year periodicity within the data, suggesting solar variability has a modulating influence on Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow with potentially important implications for understanding global climate change through the late Holocene.”

Just like we reported some time ago: Solar activity also in South American monsoons over the last 1500 years.

Of course readers have the choice of believing a growing mountain of solar-climate papers authored by dozens of distinguished scientists, or an amateur who doesn’t even read the papers.

Leading Climate Scientists Blast Letter By 20 Academics As “Naïve” …”Implied Coercion” Damages Field Of Science.

A couple of days ago I posted a comment given by Joe Bastardi on the 20 academics who penned a latter to the Department of Justice calling for an investigation of dissident views on climate science and their supporters.

It has since turned out that at least one of these academics is really in the green, which raises eyebrows on issues like objectivity and ethical conduct.

I also have gotten comments from Georgia Tech professor Judith Curry and geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning.

First Prof. Curry’s comment:

I am astonished by the naiveté of these scientists, who are damaging their reputation by their naive meddling in a complex policy debate. They seem not to realize that the tables could easily be turned on them if the political winds change (say with the election of a Republican U.S. President), and the heat would then be turned on green advocacy groups and the scientists that engage with them. The science is sufficiently uncertain to allow several rational narratives for what has caused 20th century warming and how the 21st century climate will evolve. These 20 scientists damage not only their own reputations, but they also damage the public perception of scientists as trustworthy sources of information. Most seriously, the coercion of scientists implied by this letter will discourage objectivity in scientific research and will discourage scientists from entering/staying in the field of climate research.”

“Undemocratic and unprofessional”

Sebastian Lüning also finds the whole affair a bit odd and “unprofessional”. He wrote:

Rather than criminal lawsuits, we urgently need an objective “scientific court” where arguments of both IPCC and skeptic sides are technically and open-mindedly discussed. It is undemocratic and unprofessional to silence scientists by legally threatening them if they do not subscribe to the official interpretation / party line. There are many historic examples where science pioneers such as Galileo Galilee or Alfred Wegener would have ended up in prison.”

Finally Prof. Nicola Scafetta of Duke University also provided a short comment:

Let us hope that this evident politicization of science ends soon.”


VW Needs The Mann, Jones & Muller Scandal Action Team To Implement The “Mike’s Nature Trick” Defense Strategy

The news of VW seemingly being caught red-handed rigging emissions tests of its diesel-powered vehicles has hit like a bombshell. The Wolfsburg, Germany based automaker is reeling like never before.

The U.S. Department of Justice is launching a criminal probe, and potential penalties of up to $18 billion may be imposed. The criminal prosecution of VW top managers and engineers for fraud are likely looming.

According to reports, VW engineers tricked the emissions testing software so that it would hide the incline, and thus delivered the results that the company and regulators wanted to see.

Already many are accusing the company of defrauding the public and its customers, engaging in criminal activity, and even committing green high crimes. This is really serious trouble for VW. So what strategy should VW use to defend itself?

Perhaps they ought to take a page or two out of the Climategate Playbook, where thousands of leaked e-mails indicated climate scientists were manipulating data, dubiously splicing datasets, hiding code and even corrupting the peer review process. Following the strategy used in the wake of Climategate, VW should:

1. Claim that the accusers aren’t real automotive experts, and so they shouldn’t be taken seriously.

2. Claim it’s a Nobel Peace Prize winner.

3. Point out that the “emissions trick” is “just a clever mathematical trick to hide” the emissions incline.

4. Set up three “independent” high-ranking commissions – all made up of close VW partners, suppliers and “real experts”, with the task of investigating the allegations.

5. Put out a statement saying that the company is so depressed that it is even having thoughts of committing suicide.

6. Issue an official report from all three commissions exonerating VW, claiming that though the company’s methods were controversial, the vehicles are still all within the spirit of industry standards.

7. Insist that the engineering behind VW diesel engines “is robust” and that their vehicles are among the cleanest cars in the world.

8. Insist that they are the target of a vast conspiracy, all led by Ford, GM and the fossil fuels industry –  and that they are the ones who really need to be investigated.

9. Get 20 leading academics to write a letter demanding the Department of Justice investigate Ford, GM and the fossil fuels industry for obstructing the production of fuel-efficient cars.

10. File defamation lawsuits against any journalists or experts who point out your alleged misconduct, or evidence thereof.

Indeed there are many other strategies that can be borrowed from the Climategate playbook.

Unfortunately the company’s top executives already publicly opened their mouths and appeared to admit guilt, and so they may have unnecessarily complicated or even damaged their case. VW chief Winterkorn said he was “deeply sorry” and ordered an investigation.

Moreover Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of VW’s Center of Automotive Research in Germany, said: “This disaster is beyond all expectations.” Disaster? Why? Everyone knows VW makes some of the best and cleanest cars in the world. Why should that be a “disaster”?

Before making such comments VW’s top brass should have first consulted with their technical experts on the matter – and acquired the damage control services of Mann, Jones & Muller.

The strategy was effective for the Climategate scientists, and so it should do the trick for VW.

PS: Personally I think this is mostly political and it is a first shot in a coming war against the automotive industry and our private mobility. Overall VW cars are clean, well-built, safe, fuel-efficient and reliable cars. I’ve owned 3 in my life and was completely satisfied. The whole affair to me stinks of government attacking one company on behalf of another (or others).


Joe Bastardi Sees Possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” In Europe As North Atlantic Cold Expands!

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi has another excellent Saturday Summary up at his Weatherbell Analytics site.

At first he makes some philosophical points on why free markets are so crucial and why so many Catholics disagree with the latest Pope on climate change policy.

That aside, Joe takes a peek at the upcoming European winter.

The current conditions are starting to favor a colder-than-normal winter and so you might want to keep the long johns well within reach. At the 15:45 mark he shows a chart of the new Jamstec (sp?) model for the coming winter.

2015 Europe winter forecast JamTech

The model shows a cold winter in store for Northern Europe, especially Great Britain and a large part of Scandinavia. It’s still early and these seasonal forecasts are fraught with uncertainty. But Joe seems to be leaning toward a cool winter, and so already that is not a good sign.

The reason for the potential cold UK winter is the growing pool of icy sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic, which played a role in the cold and wet summer Northeast Europe had to endure this year. Here’s the snipped portion of the chart appearing at the 13:45 mark (sorry for the blurry quality):

2015 Atlantic

Joe tells his viewers:

You folks in Europe you watch that cold pool. The fact that it’s getting this far south like this, starting to cool the water near Spain. That’s – the water is warming up here near Iceland – this is gonna promote more ridging in this area of the world. And when there’s ridging in Iceland and Greenland, look out! If that mean trough sinks further south in the North Atlantic, it looks like a nasty winter shaping up, especially for the UK. And we’re telling people that.”

Snow being a thing of the past? Maybe next winter. With a little luck we’ll get a good taste of it in Paris in December. It would be fun watching politicians warn of warming while a blizzard rages on outside. Such an embarrassment of course wouldn’t be the first time.

In the US, charts show a mild start of the winter, but becoming cold beginning in January – especially across the east and south, across Texas.


Veteran Meteorologist Joe Bastardi On Scandalous Letter By 20 Academics: “Reeks of Paranoia”…”Attempt To Silence Dissent”

With 20 academics sending a letter to the US Department of Justice, it’s highly ironic how those who are totally wrong (see chart) are demanding a criminal investigation of those who are correct!

20 academics

Original chart: John Christy, U of Alabama.

I asked veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics to comment on the news of these seemingly fanatic academics demanding the US federal government step in and suppress scientific dissent. Here’s what he sent.

Joe Bastardi’s commentary:

The people that have penned this despotic missive, which sad to say, has a chance to carry weight, should identify directly who this is targeted at. Who are the people taking all this money, for I know of no one this applies too?

It reeks of paranoia, creating a shadowy strawman argument, in an attempt to silence dissent. This is siimilar to lawsuits that have tied people up in courts for years, an attempt to intimidate into silence anyone that dares speak up against their position. I noted with great interest that I could find no signee who has to make global forecasts on a daily basis where their livelihood depended on actually BEING RIGHT, where if they are not right they get fired. Not one.

In addition, given the amount of money that has been allocated to the promotion of AGW, it can be easily argued that some of the people pushing that issue would not have a job if it wasn’t for their position. My job actually depends on the accuracy of my forecasts. Climate is a major tool for getting that forecast right, and so my knowledge of past weather events is needed for my success. If I see something I disagree on, given what I know, I speak up. Nothing more, nothing less.

I fail to see how any of these signees can be objective, given all they have to lose if they are indeed proven wrong by nature itself. That they actually would do such a thing speaks volumes as to their character, which is no different than a bully on the playground, except their playground is other peoples lives and their protected towers from which they seek to dictate their agenda.

I find it rich in that one of the signees, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, appears to have been to Cuba twice to yuck it up with Fidel Castro, a master at silencing those who dare dissent to his ideas. Maybe that is where he is getting his ideas, from the man who claimed in 1963 the US forced hurricane Flora to stall over his island in an attempt to wipe him out.”


Fed Up! Duke University Researcher Resigns: “High Number” Of Scientific Articles “Published With Fraudulent Data”!

At Facebook Jean-Francois Garlépy, a Duke University researcher, expresses how he has become fed up with the inner workings of western academia and is resigning. Hat-tip: reader Magnum.

He writes:

This week, I resigned from my position at Duke University with no intent to solicit employment in state-funded academic research positions in any foreseeable future. Many reasons have motivated this choice, starting with personal ones: I will soon be a father and want to be spending time with my son at home.

Other reasons have to do with research academia itself. Throughout the years, I have been discovering more and more of the inner workings of academia and how modern scientific research is done and I have acquired a certain degree of discouragement in face of what appears to be an abandonment by my research community of the search for knowledge. I found scientists to be more preoccupied by their own survival in a very competitive research environment than by the development of a true understanding of the world.

By creating a highly-competitive environment that relies on the selection of researchers based on their “scientific productivity,” as it is referred to, we have populated the scientific community with what I like to call “chickens with no head,” that is, researchers who can produce multiple scientific articles per year, none of which with any particularly important impact on our understanding of the world. Because of this…”

(Continue reading here).

He adds:

The fact that the peer-review system does not care about looking at the data is not in any way reassuring about this concern. Furthermore, a large portion of the time of a scientist is spent on frivolous endeavors such as submitting a grant request to 5-10 agencies in the hope that one of them will accept. Finally, our scientific publication system has become so corrupted that it is almost impossible to get a scientific article published in an important journal without talking one-on-one with the editor before submitting the article.”

Later on he writes:

My most important scientific articles were accepted in major journals because the editors had a favorable prejudice toward me or my co-authors, …”


The scientific publication system portrays itself as a strict system for the evaluation of the importance of individual scientific contributions to knowledge, but anyone who has participated to this system and became good at it knows that the true factors that influence the publication of a scientific work have to do with social networking and, in many cases, straight-out corruption.”

Read entire comment here.

Former NOAA Meteorologist David Dilley Suspects Suppression Of Science At The AMS!

Two days ago David Dilley wrote about the widespread suppression of alternative scientific views on climate change at the academic level, even though these skeptical views are far more in line with observations than the climate model projections.

Today he comments on the apparent suppression of science at the American Meteorological Association (AMS).

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) – Living Up to Their Mission – or Suppressing Vital Climate Information?

By David Dilley (former NOAA meteorologist)

Suppression of science is not only going on at universities and academic institutions, but also at societies and government operated agencies.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) mission statement claims they are “a prestigious membership scientific society that promotes the development, dissemination and education on the atmospheric, oceanic and hydrologic sciences – and the advancement of their professional applications”. Is there a play on words here – maybe advancement of “their” professional applications? Does this mean they promote only “their” views and not others? Could this mean they are obstructing some advances in science by refusing to consider certain aspects of climate change research, such as natural cycles?

This very well may be the case, especially their statement gives the appearance of a final conclusion: “Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal” and “is beyond what can be explained by the natural variability of the climate”. Further into their mission statement they talk only about warming during the past century, and absolutely nothing about prior climate cycles. Have they taken sides with the aim of promoting only anthropogenic grants and dismiss natural cycle research entirely? Indications that this is so are hard not to notice. How will history judge an institution that excludes the huge factor of solar activity from the climate equation?

AMS Suppression of Science Concerning Natural Climate Change – and Other Views

In my last post we saw that according to Dr. William Gray of the University of Colorado, and other researchers, if you are associated with a university and believe in cyclical climate change rather than anthropogenic induced change, you’ll have to wait until after retirement to publish science that supports alternative views. And then you will still hit major snags, among them cut-off grant money, journals that will you jump through hoops, unreasonably nitpicky editors and reviewers,who often refuse papers simply because they do not like your view.

And the same holds true for private researchers. I submitted a proposed natural cycle paper to the AMS Journal of Climate back in 2007 and promptly received a curt reply by the editor: “not in this journal”. As a result of the obstacles encountered in publishing natural cycle research, I took an alternative route and proceeded online by publishing the EBook “Global Warming-Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found”, which was peer-reviewed by three meteorologists and published online in 2009. It was later updated online in 2012. A video update was published on the NoTricksZone on 12 August 2015: “We Are Now Starting To See A Dramatic Cooling In The Arctic”, Says Former NOAA Meteorologist … “Extremely Cold From 2025 To 2050!

And finally, a few years after my manuscript was rejected by the AMS in a very curt manner, I submitted a membership request in 2010 for my Global Weather Oscillations Incorporated (GWO) to become a corporate member. GWO fulfilled all of the AMS guidelines for membership, yet the board voted membership down 5-0. Prior to the vote the AMS office looked through the GWO web site, and especially our views on climate change. This heightened my curiosity concerning membership denial, so I wrote to the AMS asking why the corporate membership was denied. Their response came about 3 months later: “do not know why“.  I then found out through an AMS employee that during the past 30 years – only 3 corporations had ever been denied membership. So again I tried to find out why by calling the Executive Director of the AMS. His reply: all 5 board members voted not to grant membership and that there were “no records regarding the decision“.   Really? No records or recollection? Does this seem odd?

What are they trying to hide?

What Using NONE Of The World’s Fossil Fuels Would Do To Human Society …Hundreds Of Millions Dead In Just Weeks!

The latest dubious climate scare story just out involves a far-fetched thought-spiel that creates a scenario of what would happen if all the world’s fossil fuels were burned – that scenario all based on an inflated CO2 climate sensitivity and crystal ball quality science.

The theorized result would be the possible melting of Antarctic ice and a 120+meter rise in sea level – “over thousands of years“. Little wonder already a number of scientists have dismissed the report as wildly speculative and of no value.

Well, in an equally far-fetched scenario people should instead consider the grave consequences of what would result if NO fossil fuels were burned, i.e. the opposite of burning all the fossil fuels. What would happen if the supply of fossil fuels were suddenly cut off today in our modern and prosperous society? The consequences would be cataclysmic and would occur immediately, and not over hundreds or thousands of years.

First without fossil fuels a majority of the world’s power plants (powered by coal, oil and gas) would stop. This would lead to widespread, permanent blackouts. Industries and the their output of life-sustaining goods would grind to a halt. Household appliances would cease to operate, meaning perishables stored in our refrigerators and freezers would begin to spoil within a matter of days, if not hours. Water would cease coming out of the taps because the public water works would be idled by the power loss. Cooking, bathing and sanitation would stop. Toilets would become inoperable. Sanitation services would not take our refuse away. Garbage would pile up within days.

Would you be able to just drive to the supermarket and get the things you need? Traffic control systems and signals would switch off and traffic would turn into mayhem. Within hours cars and trucks would run out of fuel and stall, leaving millions of motorists stranded over tens of thousands of miles of streets littered with abandoned vehicles. Stranded motorists would be left to fend for themselves. Grocery store shelves, not being refilled by delivery trucks, would quickly be looted.

Entire information and communication systems would be dead, ATM machines would stop, lights and power at schools and hospitals would go out. The healthcare system would collapse immediately. Forget calling the authorities. Emergency vehicles would cease to operate because they would have no fuel. Police, fire and ambulances would not be able to respond to calls. Law enforcement would be paralyzed, which would lead to instantaneous anarchy and mayhem. Rapists, murderers and criminals would have a field day. Violent gangs would soon take over. Loved ones on business trips, vacations, universities, weekend trips would never be seen again because there would be no way for them to return, except by taking the perilous journey through the mayhem on foot. All air traffic would be grounded. Most would be stranded and left to fend for themselves.

Next imagine it’s wintertime with temperatures well below freezing and the wind outside is howling. Your home is without heat, lighting, electricity or water. How are you going to prepare your next meal, wash your clothes, bathe or stay warm? Immediately homes would turn cold and millions and frozen water pipes would burst. Millions of people would start chopping tress down to burn for heat to stay warm. In no time our skies would be choked by ash and particulates.

In the summer within hours millions would begin to suffer from hunger and dehydration. To comprehend the utter hell you would find yourself in, imagine what your next step would be when you find that your fridge is empty and there’s no more water and electricity? You’re hungry and thirsty, you’re craving for food and your children are sick. What are you going to do? Walk to the supermarket? These will be long since looted. Any meat and dairy products left at the markets will be rotted and the place overrun by rats and insects. To quench your thirst you might consider drinking the untreated water from a local stream. Good luck with that. You can go outside and make a fire to sterilize the water, but you’re hungry and there’s nothing to eat. Suddenly your dog or cat starts looking like a meal, or worse, you start looking like a meal for all the abandoned dogs now running stray. Humans would start cannibalizing, with the strong preying on the weak. Syria and ISIS in comparison would look like a Love Parade parade event!

The regions with nuclear power would be better off – at least at first – but not for long as they would soon would be overrun by a tsunami of millions of blackout refugees. Chaos would ensue. Society would break down into a free-for-all.

By now you get the picture. Hundreds of millions would perish within a matter days and weeks – killed by exposure, dehydration, starvation, disease or murder. Billions would die within weeks and months.

So what do you prefer? That scenario, or a sea level rise of 100 meters over 5000 years?

Universities Aggressively Suppressing Other Climate Views And Open Scientific Debate, Says Former NOAA Meteorologist

DilleyThe Suppression of Natural Cycles Research by Universities – Is It To Protect Grant Money?
By David Dilley
Former NOAA meteorologist,
(Now CEO of

On August 26, 2015, NoTricksZone published the article: “Gross Suppression of Science…Former NOAA Meteorologist Says Employees Not to Talk About Natural Cycles” where in it I wrote how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned employees not to put forth alternative views on climate science.

Also in the article I described an incident in which the University of Maine was instrumental in canceling my scheduled Climate Change lecture – simply because they felt “some people in the audience may feel uncomfortable” hearing about natural cycles.

Some readers were aghast by this article and reluctant to believe that a university could be so bold to actually shut down a guest lecture at another institution, and thus infringe on the open academic exchange of ideas, which is so vital for the progress of science. But whenever articles are based on real observations and facts, more meteorologists and climate researchers come forward and share related information and experiences.

Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University

Was the shutting down of my Natural Climate Cycle lecture by the University of Maine an isolated incident or was it a common tactic used to avoid retaliation by the funding sources and thus ensure the flow of future grants? To shed light on this Dr. William Gray, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, provided his insights to me in a recent conversation. Dr. Gray recalled how he and Dr. Fred Singer “had experienced a somewhat similar situation with a scheduled climate talk at the University of Colorado, a university that receives generous amounts of grants for studies on anthropogenic climate change.”

Just as was the case with my scheduled lecture at the University of Maine, his lecture too had been advertised and a room assigned. But then, just prior to the lecture, Dr. Gray was informed that the room was “no longer available”. Dr. Gray asked for another room – and requested the room to be unlocked 30 minutes prior to the lecture so they could set up and that the university provide video equipment. They seemingly accommodated his requests. But upon arriving at the room a half hour prior to the lecture, he found that it was much smaller than the other room and that it was locked. They waited and waited, then finally at the very minute the lecture was scheduled to begin, the university unlocked the door. No video equipment was available. Was my lecture and Dr. Gray’s both shut down by the universities in order to protect the flow of grants? Is this now becoming common practice to suppress the freedom of speech, the open exchange of ideas and the science of natural climate change cycles?

Fritz Vahrenholt, University of Osnabrück

The same type of academic suppression also happened involving S. Fred Singer and Prof. Claes Johnson at an engineering and scientific society in Belgium (in this particular case the suppression stemming from a high level IPCC official) and with German professor Fritz Vahrenholt at the University of Osnabrück, just after the release of his climate science skeptical book “Die kalte Sonne”. The list is surely a long one, and many other professors and speakers can confirm the practice, or even far worse, with their own experiences.

Selling Integrity In Exchange For Grant Money?

In 2008 I had a very candid conversation with Dr. Reid Bryson, who passed away in 2009 and is considered the “Father of Climatology”, and just this past week with Dr. Gray. Both professors put forth similar information on the acquisition of grants and both indicated this is how all university programs work. They told me, “Most university research departments rely heavily on government and private grants to survive.” According to Dr. Gray university research departments must play ball and “play by the rules” instituted by the grant system in order to secure climate grants. Playing by the rules means grant money for anthropogenic climate change is fairly easy to acquire, and all you have to do is apply for the advertised grant and deliver what the grant is requesting – which is to tie your research to human induced global warming.

Both Drs. Gray and Bryson indicated that “almost no grant money” is available for non-anthropogenic climate research. They also went on to say: “If you are a tenured professor, you must play by the rules and get published in journals to survive in the department. If you are not tenured, you definitely must play by the anthropogenic grant rules, or else tenure is a dream that will never be met”.

This is how the young researchers are kept in line by universities, and essentially sell their integrity in exchange for anthropogenic global warming grants. As a result of this biased grant system, there is very little research on natural cycles coming out of the universities. Most natural cycle research is either now being conducted by private companies that are not tied to the grant system, or by retired researchers who no longer need to worry about playing the game. So yes, the manipulation by the Universities of Maine and Colorado, and elsewhere, to shut down research and discussion lectures on natural climate cycles are not an uncommon practice and are aimed at protecting and maintaining the inflow of anthropogenic grants and agendas.

Note: Not only is suppression of science a problem at the academic level, but there’s strong evidence of this at scientific institutions such as the NOAA. Anyone with more information regarding an NOAA “Talking Points” memo of the late 1990s instructing employees not to promote alternative views on climate science, please contact Mr. Dilley More on this later.


Body Of Science Continues To Grow …Solar Impact On Climate System Is Major And Unequivocal

Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt present more scientific papers showing the clear and major connection between solar activity and climate.

The sun drives the climate: Proof of the 90 and 200-year cycles in the earth’s climate history

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Solar activity fluctuates very much in cycles, among them the Gleissberg Cycle over 90 years, plus or minus 30 years. In March 2015 a study by Orgutsov et al. appeared in the journal Advances in Space Research which discovered the solar Gleissberg Cycle during the growth period of the northern hemisphere over the past 450 years. The authors suspected a solar impact on temperatures on plant growth. The abstract:

Evidence for the Gleissberg solar cycle at the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
Time evolution of growing season temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere was analyzed using both wavelet and Fourier approaches. A century-scale (60–140 year) cyclicity was found in the summer temperature reconstruction from the Taymir peninsula (∼72° N, ∼105° E) and other high-latitude (60–70° N) regions during the time interval AD 1576–1970. This periodicity is significant and consists of two oscillation modes, 60–70 year and 120–140 year variations. In the summer temperatures from the Yamal peninsula (∼70° N, ∼67° E) only a shorter-term (60–70 year) variation is present. A comparison of the secular variation in the Northern Hemisphere temperature proxies with the corresponding variations in sunspot numbers and the fluxes of cosmogenic 10Be in Greenland ice shows that a probable cause of this variability is the modulation of temperature by the century-scale solar cycle of Gleissberg. This is consistent with the results obtained previously for Northern Fennoscandia (67°–70° N, 19°–33° E). Thus, evidence for a connection between century-long variations in solar activity and climate was obtained for the entire boreal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.”

A year earlier Ogurtsov and a Finnish colleague had already published another paper on the Gleissberg cycles in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. Back then they reported a solar Gleissberg Cycle in the nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores:

Evidence of the solar Gleissberg cycle in the nitrate concentration in polar ice
Two sets of nitrate (NO3) concentration data, obtained from Central Greenland and East Antarctic (Dronning Maud Land) ice cores, were analyzed statistically. Distinct century-scale (50–150 yr) variability was revealed in both data sets during AD 1576–1990. It was found that century-type variation in Greenland and Antarctic nitrate correlates fairly significantly with the corresponding Gleissberg cycle: (a) in sunspot number over 1700–1970 AD; (b) in 10Be concentration in Central and South Greenland over 1576–1970 AD. Thus, presence of century-scale relationship between polar nitrate and solar activity was confirmed over the last 4 centuries. That proves that NO3 concentration in polar ice caps could serve as indicator of long-term solar variability.”

Another crucial solar cycle is the Suess-de Vries Cycle. In February 2015 Hans-Joachim Lüdecke together with his colleagues Weiss and Hempelmann published an overview of the climatic link of this solar cycle in the journal Climate of the Past Discussions:

Paleoclimate forcing by the solar De Vries/Suess cycle
A large number of investigations of paleoclimate have noted the influence of a ~ 200 year oscillation which has been related to the De Vries/Suess cycle of solar activity. As such studies were concerned mostly with local climate, we have used extensive northern hemispheric proxy data sets of Büntgen and of Christiansen/Ljungqvist together with a southern hemispheric tree-ring set, all with 1 year time resolution, to analyze the climate influence of the solar cycle. As there is increasing interest in temperature rise rates, as opposed to present absolute temperatures, we have analyzed temperature differences over 100 years to shed light on climate dynamics of at least the last 2500 years. Fourier- and Wavelet transforms as well as nonlinear optimization to sine functions show the dominance of the 200 year cycle. The sine wave character of the climate oscillations permits an approximate prediction of the near future climate.”

Also a paper by Tiwari und Rajesh published in May, 2014 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is in full agreement with the above paper. In it the authors found the Suess-de Vries cycle in the precipitation distribution in Northwest China over the past 700 years:

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China
Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 years. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle “Suess wiggles” and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.”


Readers will also find a longer list of peer-reviewed papers showing the sun’s major impact on climate here. – PG

Review By German Experts Show That Even The 11-Year Solar Cycle Has Undeniable Impact On Global Climate

German geologist Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt focus on a number of papers that clearly show the sun’s unquestionable impact on the earth’s climate.

The sun drives climate: 11-year cycles shown in natural climate archives
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Solar activity fluctuates in sync with a series of characteristic cycles. The most well-known of these is the 11-year Schwabe cycle. Naturally, 11 years are a relatively short time with respect to climate. Due to the inertia of the climate system, large climatic impacts cannot be expected from these short cycles. Yet it is still worthwhile to take a closer look. A series of appearing papers over the past years has looked into the Schwabe cycle and searched for a possible climate coupling in historical datasets. The search was fruitful: the solar Schwabe cycle has a measureable impact, and one that should not be underestimated.

We’d first like to start in Germany. Here a team of scientists led by Dominik Güttler of ETH Zürich studied 100-year old oak trees from the Medieval Warm Period in South Germany. Using C14 dating and counting tree rings, the scientists were able to find a clearly pulsating 11-year cycle. The paper appeared in January 2013 in the Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Accelerator Mass Spectrometry. The abstract:

Evidence of 11-year solar cycles in tree rings from 1010 to 1110 AD – Progress on high precision AMS measurements
Oak tree rings from Southern Germany covering the AD 1010–1110 years have been analyzed for radiocarbon with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) at the laboratory at ETH Zurich. High-precision measurements with a precision down to 12 years radiocarbon age and a time resolution of 2 years aimed to identify modulations of the 14C concentration in tree ring samples caused by the 11 years solar cycles, a feature that so far is not visible in the IntCal calibration curve. Our results are in good agreement with the current calibration curve IntCal09. However, we observed an offset in radiocarbon age of 25–40 years towards older values. An evaluation of our sample preparation, that included variations of e.g.: chemicals, test glasses and processing steps did not explain this offset. The numerous measurements using the AMS-MICADAS system validated its suitability for high precision measurements with high repeatability.”

The next stop is Italy in the Ionian Sea. Researchers there as well found the 11-year solar cycle in the climate archives of the last 2700 years. The study was published in March 2015 in the journal Climate of the Past. The abstract:

A high-resolution δ18O record and Mediterranean climate variability
A high-resolution, well-dated foraminiferal δ18O record from a shallow-water core drilled from the Gallipoli Terrace in the Gulf of Taranto (Ionian Sea), previously measured over the last two millennia, has been extended to cover 707 BC–AD 1979. Spectral analysis of this series, performed using singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) and other classical and advanced methods, strengthens the results obtained analysing the shorter δ18O profile, detecting the same highly significant oscillations of about 600, 380, 170, 130 and 11 years, respectively explaining about 12, 7, 5, 2 and 2% of the time series total variance, plus a millennial trend (18% of the variance). The comparison with the results of multi-channel singular-spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied to a data set of 26 Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature-proxy records shows that NH temperature anomalies share with our local record a~long-term trend and a bicentennial (170-year period) cycle. These two variability modes, previously identified as temperature-driven, are the most powerful modes in the NH temperature data set. Both the long-term trends and the bicentennial oscillations, when reconstructed locally and hemispherically, show coherent phases. Furthermore, the corresponding local and hemispheric amplitudes are comparable if changes in the precipitation–evaporation balance of the Ionian sea, presumably associated with temperature changes, are taken into account.”

In April 2014 Liang Zhao and Jing-Song Wang of the Peking National Center for Space Weather reported in the Journal of Climate on another Schwabe finding. The authors studied fluctuations in the east Asian monsoons and here too were able to see a clear influence by the 11-year solar cycle. The abstract of the paper:

Robust Response of the East Asian Monsoon Rainband to Solar Variability
This study provides evidence of the robust response of the East Asian monsoon rainband to the 11-yr solar cycle
and first identify the exact time period within the summer half-year (1958–2012) with the strongest correlation between the mean latitude of the rainband (MLRB) over China and the sunspot number (SSN). This period just corresponds to the climatological-mean East Asian mei-yu season, characterized by a large-scale quasi-zonal monsoon rainband (i.e., 22 May–13 July). Both the statistically significant correlation and the temporal coincidence indicate a robust response of the mei-yu rainband to solar variability during the last five solar cycles. During the high SSN years, the mei-yu MLRB lies 1.2° farther north, and the amplitude of its interannual variations increases when compared with low SSN years. The robust response of monsoon rainband to solar forcing is related to an anomalous general atmospheric pattern with an up–down seesaw and a north–south seesaw over East Asia.”

Two months ago a team of researchers led by Zhongfang Liu published a study on the North American winter climate in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Surprisingly the scientists found a strong impact by the 11-year solar cycle, which in part has an influence on the climate of the North American winter via the Pacific circulation system. Abstract:

Solar cycle modulation of the Pacific–North American teleconnection influence on North American winter climate
We investigate the role of the 11-year solar cycle in modulating the Pacific–North American (PNA) influence on North American winter climate. The PNA appears to play an important conduit between solar forcing and surface climate. The low solar (LS) activity may induce an atmospheric circulation pattern that resembles the positive phase of the PNA, resulting in a significant warming over northwestern North America and significant dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies and the Ohio-Tennessee-lower Mississippi River Valley. The solar-induced changes in surface climate share more than 67% and 14% of spatial variances in the PNA-induced temperature and precipitation changes for 1950–2010 and 1901–2010 periods, respectively. These distinct solar signatures in North American climate may contribute to deconvolving modern and past continental-scale climate changes and improve our ability to interpret paleoclimate records in the region.”

In the conclusion they write:

Our results have shown the influence of the 11year solar cycle on the PNA associated atmospheric circulation pattern and winter surface climate in North America.”

Also in the Bering Sea a team of scientists showed the impacts of the solar Schwabe cycle. Kota Katsuki and his colleagues found the cycle in the climate archives of 13,000 years ago. That study appeared in April 2014 in the Geophysical Research Letters:

Response of the Bering Sea to 11-year solar irradiance cycles during the Bølling-Allerød
Previous studies find decadal climate variability possibly related to solar activity, although the details regarding the feedback with the ocean environment and ecosystem remain unknown. Here, we explore the feedback system of solar irradiance change during the Bølling-Allerød period, based on laminated sediments in the northern Bering Sea. During this period, well-ventilated water was restricted to the upper intermediate layer, and oxygen-poor lower intermediate water preserved the laminated sediment. An 11-year cycle of diatom and radiolarian flux peaks was identified from the laminated interval. Increased fresh meltwater input and early sea-ice retreat in spring under the solar irradiance maximum follow the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation which impacted the primary production and volume of upper intermediate water production in the following winter. Strength of this 11 year solar irradiance effect might be further regulated by the pressure patterns of Pacific decadal oscillation and/or El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.”

Last but not least we have a classic paper on the Schwabe cycle by a group led by Hiroko Miyahara in 2009 appearing in the Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union:

Influence of the Schwabe/Hale solar cycles on climate change during the Maunder Minimum
We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ~14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ~9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods.”

If the 11-year cycle already has an impact, then just imagine the profound impact that the other loner term cycles have, such as the 78-year cycle and the 1000-year solar cycle. These surely cement the climate into longer term phases. -PG