German DWD Weather Service Misleads Public Into Thinking May Mean Temperatures Are Rising

By on 22. August 2017

Obviously it’s become necessary to focus more attention on shenanigans from Germany’s DWD National Weather Service.

Lately they have developed a seemingly activist habit of blaming everything on “global warming” and using dubious tactics in doing so. These tactics include putting out deceptive and misleading press releases for the media to spread to the public.

The latest episode is described by Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt at the Die kalte Sonne site here.

A couple of months ago the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) worried that frosts seemed to be occurring less often in mid May, hinting that their seemingly lower frequency of the recent past was due to global climate warming. They wrote that over the recent years that “they often have not occured at all“. They added:

Recent studies by the Deutsche Wetterdienst show that the frequency of cold snaps in mid May foremost in the southern region was significantly under 50%. […] Many experts trace the changes to climate change, among other things, because the ongoing warming of the global atmosphere is leading to less and less frosty May cold snaps. The earlier and possible future changes in mean temperature for May, the number annual frost days, and many other figures are shown at a glance at the Deutsche Klimaatlas.”

Read entire article at the DWD here.

No warming

However, Lüning and Vahrenholt point out that the DWD fails to provide any charts illustrating this. But looking at the Deutsche Klimaatlas we find a chart of May mean temperature for Germany. The following chart shows Germany’s mean May temperature for the past 130 years:

Chart for Germany mean May temperature. Source: DWD, Deutscher Klimaatlas.

Suddenly it becomes clear why the DWD did not present any chart in its press release: May has not warmed at all in 100 years!

What one does see is a cyclic pattern with warm phases 1915-1950 and since 1985. The curve in fact follows almost precisely NAO ocean cycle. Lüning and Vahrenholt write that it is “peculiar” that the DWD would assign the May frosts as being a victim of climate change: “We’d like to see a little more realism and transparency from the DWD.”

German climate enthusiast Josef Kowatsch then provided a temperature curve for May for all of Germany going back to 1915. The chart is based on the DWD’s own data.

Clearly one sees the distinct oceanic cycles in the chart:

May mean temperature for Germany. has been declining for the past 15 years. Chart: Josef Kowatsch.

Note how in fact Germany temperature trended downward from 1915 to about 1985, despite rising CO2 emissions during the period. The hottest May took place early in the 20th century.

Strangely, although Europe’s climate is directly coupled to North Atlantic oscillations, one never hears of this in the German media. The problem for this has to do in part with the DWD press releases of the sort we’ve been seeing lately. With such misleading press releases, it should not be of any wonder that Europeans are now accustomed to having everything blamed on “man-made climate change”.

At Europe’s climate institutes like the DWD, oceans and the sun do not exist.

 

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10,000 To 5,000 Years Ago, Global Sea Levels Were 3 Meters Higher, Temperatures 4-6° C Warmer

By on 21. August 2017

Source: press release for Myers et al., 2015

Sea Levels 2-4 m Higher Until ~5,000 Years Ago

Imply Surface Temps Were At Least 5°C Warmer

According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields about 0.4 meter (0.2 to 0.6) to global sea levels.

Moore et al., 2013 “The equilibrium sea level change from thermal expansion alone has been estimated to be ~0.2–0.6 m/°C” (Meehl et al., 2007b).
IPCC AR5: “The amount of ocean thermal expansion increases with global warming (0.2 to 0.6 m/°C–1)”

Considering that much of the globe had sea levels that reached or exceeded 2 to 4 meters above present during the Early to Mid Holocene (~10,000 to ~5,000 years ago), a conversion of 0.4 m/°C  (from thermal expansion alone) would indicate that surface temperatures were at minimum 5°C warmer than now during the first half of the Holocene.  There are many paleoclimate reconstructions of surface temperatures that substantiate such high levels of warming during this period (illustrated below).

It should be noted that during the Early to Mid Holocene, Earth’s CO2 concentrations were only hovering around 260 ppm to 265 ppm – about 140 ppm lower than today’s values (over 400 ppm).

When we consider that 93% of the Earth’s heat is contained in the oceans, which is symbiotically connected to sea level rise and fall via thermal expansion, we can affirm that both surface temperatures and sea levels can and do rise and fall without any meaningful contribution from the atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Therefore, it can be concluded that other internal mechanisms, and not CO2 concentrations, are the driving influence impacting both surface temperatures and sea levels.

Argentina, 3-5 meters higher than present, Bini et al., 2017

“The main conclusion is that the relative sea-level between c. 7000 and 5300 cal. yr BP was in the range of c. 2–4 m a.s.l. [above present mean sea level], with a mean value of c. 3.5 m a.s.l. … Initial glacio-hydro-isostatic models of the Patagonian coast [Argentina] suggested that the shoreline could be characterized by currently raised beaches, which started to form as soon as ice-sheet melting ceased (Clark et al., 1978). A more recent model (Milne and Mitrovica, 2008) predicted that RSLs might have exceeded present by c. 5 m at 6000 cal. yr BP. [T]he altimetric and chronological data of the valleymouth terraces show a highstand between c. 7000 and 6600 cal. yr BP at c. 4 m a.s.l. [4 meters above present mean sea level], followed by a progressive fall to c. 2–2.5 m between 6200 and 5300 cal. yr BP.”

Antarctic Peninsula, 15.5 meters higher than present,  Watcham et al., 2011

“The curve shows a mid-Holocene RSL highstand on Fildes Peninsula at 15.5 m above mean sea level between 8000 and 7000 cal a BP.”

South Africa, 3.5 meters higher than present, Lecea et al., 2017

“Ramsay (1995) produced a 9 kyr BP record of sea-level changes from the South African east coast, that showed sea levels reached a high stand of +3.5 m [above present] at 4.65 kyr BP [4,650 years ago]. … In Mozambique, Norström et al., (2012) identified a sea-level highstand ~3 m above present at ~ 6.6 kyr BP.”

Western India, 2 meters higher than present,  Das et al., 2017

“In the absence of any evidence of land-level changes, the study suggests that at around 6 ka to 3 ka [6,000 to 3,000 years ago], the sea was approximately 2 m higher than present.”

Western Sumatra, Indonesia, 2-6 meters higher than present, Dura et al., 2011

“A prominent feature of southeast Asia Holocene sea level records is the mid-Holocene highstand [Geyh et al., 1979; Tjia, 1996; Scoffin and Le Tissier, 1998; Hanebuth et al., 2000], which in Western Sumatra, varies in timing and magnitude from 3000 to 5000 cal years B.P., and +6 to +2 m above present-day sea levels [Horton et al., 2005].”

Denmark, 2.2 meters higher than present, Sander et al., 2016

“The data show a period of RSL [relative sea level] highstand at c. 2.2 m above present MSL [mean sea level] between c. 5.0 and 4.0 ka BP [5,000 to 4,000 years before present].”

Africa, 3.5 meters higher than present, Accordi and Carbone, 2016

“Then, the skeletal carbonate storage on the shelf reached its maximum 5 to 4 ka BP [5000 to 4000 years before present] (Ramsay, 1995) during a highstand about 3.5 m above the present sea level, when shallow marine accommodation space was greater than at present.”

Brazil, 4 meters higher than present, Spotorno-Oliveira et al., 2016

“The transgressing sea rapidly rose until reaching the ~ +4 m highstand [above present] level around 5000 years BP.”

Bangladesh, 4.5-5 meters higher than present, Rashid et al., 2012

“The abundant marine diatoms and mangrove pollens indicate the highest RSL [relative sea level] transgression in Bangladesh at approximately 6000 cal BP, being at least 4.5 to 5 m higher than the modern m.s.l. [mean sea level]. … [T]he present shoreline of Bangladesh was established at approximately 1500 cal BP and has not noticeably migrated inland since.”

China, 2-4 meters higher than present, Bradley et al., 2016

“In general, the data indicate a marked slowdown between 7 and 8 kyr BP, with sea level rising steadily to form a highstand of ~2-4 m [above present sea level] between 6 and 4 kyr BP [6000 and 4000 years before present]. This is followed by a steady fall, reaching present day levels by ~1 kyr BP.”

East Antarctica, 8 meters higher than present, Hodgson et al., 2016

“The geological data imply a regional RSL [relative sea level] high stand of c. 8 m [above present levels], which persisted between 9411 cal yr BP and 7564 cal yr BP [calendar years before present].”

Argentina, Uruguay, 4 – 6.5 meters higher than present, Prieto et al., 2016

“Analysis of the RSL [relative sea level] database revealed that the RSL [relative sea level] rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m [above present] between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present] … This RSL [relative sea level] curve was re-plotted by Gyllencreutz et al. (2010) using the same index points and qualitative approach but using the calibrated ages. It shows rising sea-levels following the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), reaching a RSL [relative sea level] maximum of +6.5 m above present at c. 6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], followed by a stepped regressive trend towards the present.”

Brazil, 2.7 meters higher than present, Fontes et al., 2017

Vancouver, 1-3 meters higher than present, Dura et al., 2016

“RSL [relative sea level] highstand of <1 m (northern Sumatra) and ∼3 m (western Sumatra) between 6 and 3 ka [6,000-3,000 years ago].”

Thailand-Malaysia, 4-5 meters higher than present, Marwick et al., 2017

 

“Sinsakul (1992) has summarised 56 radiocarbon dates of shell and peat from beach and tidal locations to estimate a Holocene sea level curve for peninsula Thailand that starts with a steady rise in sea level until about 6 k BP, reaching a height of +4 m amsl (above [present] mean sea level). … Tjia (1996) collected over 130 radiocarbon ages from geological deposits of shell in abrasion platforms, sea-level notches and oyster beds and identified a +5 m [above present] highstand at ca. 5 k BP in the Thai-Malay Peninsula.”

Japan, 2.7 meters higher than present, Yokoyama et al., 2016

“The Holocene-high-stand (HHS) inferred from oyster fossils (Saccostrea echinata and Saccostrea malaboensis) is 2.7 m [above present sea level] at ca. 3500 years ago, after which sea level gradually fell to present level.”

Uruguay, 3-4 meters higher than present, Bracco et al., 2014

“We present a sea level change curve for mid Holocene in Uruguay.  Sea level reached 4 m amsl [above present mean sea level] between 6000 and 5500 yr BP [before present].   A rapid sea level fall to about 1 m amsl [above present mean sea level] was inferred for 4700-4300 yr BP.  A further sea level increase to about 3 m amsl [above present mean sea level] was inferred after 4300 yr BP.  After 4300 yr BP there was a constant sea level a decline.”

New Zealand, 2.75 – 3 meters higher than present, Clement et al., 2016

“In North Island locations the early-Holocene sea-level highstand was quite pronounced, with RSL [relative sea level] up to 2.75 m higher than present. In the South Island the onset of highstand conditions was later, with the first attainment of PMSL being between 7000–6400 cal yr BP. In the mid-Holocene the northern North Island experienced the largest sea-level highstand, with RSL up to 3.00 m higher than present.”

Eastern Australia, 2 meters higher than present, Macreadie et al., 2015

“[R]esults from other studies … suggest that high-stand, at perhaps 2 m above present msl[mean sea level] was achieved as early as 7000 radiocarbon years BP [before present](7800 cal. years BP) and that sea-level has exceeded the present value for much of the mid- to late-Holocene [~7000 to ~1000 years ago].”

Thailand, 1.5-3.0 meters higher than present, Scheffers et al., 2012

“Nevertheless, those from the Laem Son coral profile, as well as those from oysters in the Phang-nga Bay show the same trend and maximum altitude lower than +3 m compared with modern RSL (Figure 6a); the maximum of +2.5–3.0 m was timed to c. 5700 cal. BP. … [W]e tentatively deduce a highstand around 5300 BP in the order of +1.5–2.5 m above [present] RSL [relative sea level]”

Kuwait, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Arabian Gulf, 2-4 meters higher than present, Reinink-Smith, 2015

“[A]ssuming the tidal ranges were similar in the middle Holocene, a rough estimate of the MSL [mean sea level] during the middle Holocene highstand is 5.2 m − 1.7 m = +3.5 m above the present MSL [mean sea level]. … The +3.5 m highstand estimate in northeastern Kuwait derived in this study is also higher than the previously reported maximum estimates of +2 to +2.5 m responsible for other Holocene beach ridges in the Arabian Gulf (Gunatilaka, 1986; Lambeck, 1996; Kennett and Kennett, 2007; Jameson and Strohmenger, 2012). Some beach ridges in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are at elevations of 2–4 m above MSL [present mean sea level] as far as 5-15 km inland (Alsharhan and Kendall, 2003).”

Singapore, 2.5 meters higher than present, Bird et al., 2010

“The sea-level curve, corroborated by the indpendent proxy records, suggests rapid rise at a rate of 1.8 m/100 yr until 8100 cal (calibrated) yr B.P., a near cessation in the rate of sea level rise between 7800 and 7400 cal yr B.P., followed by a renewed rise of 4–5 m that was complete by 6500 cal yr B.P [0.5 m/100 yr]. …  A mid-Holocene highstand of ~+2.5 m [above present] was reached after 6500 cal yr B.P., followed by a lowering, with mangroves prograding over the core site by ca. 1000 cal yr B.P.”

South Africa, 3 meters higher than present, Strachan et al., 2014

“The mid-Holocene highstands culminated in a sea-level maximum of approximately 3 m above mean sea level (MSL) from 7300 to 6500 cal years BP [calendar years before present] and of 2 m above MSL at around 4000 cal years BP.”

Brazil, 1-4 meters higher than present, Hein et al., 2014

“Along the eastern and southern Brazilian coasts of South America, 6000 years of sea-level fall have preserved late-stage transgressive and sea-level highstand features 1–4 m above present mean sea level and several kilometers landward of modern shorelines.”

Reconstructions Of 4 – 6° C Warmer

Temps During The Last 10,000 Years

Svalbard, Arctic, 4-6°C  Warmer Than Present, Mangerud and Svendsen, 2017

“August temperatures on Svalbard were 6°C warmer at around 10.2–9.2 cal. ka BP … 4°C warmer than present between 8.2 and 6 cal. ka BP”

East China, 3-4°C warmer than present, Li et al., 2017

Northern Japan, 3-4°C warmer than present, Kawahat et al., 2017

“SST [sea surface temperatures] dropped by 3.5 °C [15.1 to 11.6 °C] within two centuries. Several peaks fluctuate by 2°C over a few centuries.”

Tibetan Plateau, 4-5°C warmer than present, Saini et al., 2017

Fan Lake, Antarctica, 8°C warmer than present, Foster et al., 2016

Arctic Ocean, 3-4 °C warmer than present, Bonnet et al., 2010

North Iceland, 5 °C warmer than present, Andersen et al., 2004

Northwest Greenland, 2.5-4 °C warmer than present,  Lasher et al., 2017

“This paper presents a multi proxy lake record of NW Greenland Holocene climate. … Summer temperatures (2.5–4 °C warmer than present) persisted until ∼4 ka [4,000 years ago]

Antarctic Peninsula, 4-5°C warmer than present (1,000 years ago), Browne et al., 2017

NW Pacific, 4 °C warmer than present, Yamamoto et al., 2016

North Atlantic, 6°C warmer than present, Mark, 2016

Mediterranean Sea, 4°C warmer than present, Jalali et al., 2016

Alberta, Canada, 8°C warmer than present, Demezhko et al., 2017

British Columbia (Canada), 3-4°C warmer than present, Rosenberg et al., 2004

East Greenland, 3-6 °C warmer than present, Lusas et al., 2017

“Air temperatures in Milne Land, west of our study area, based on preliminary estimates from chironomids, may have been 3–6°C warmer than at present (Axford et al. 2013)”

Russia, 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than present, MacDonald et al., 2000

“Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. … During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern.”

Antarctic Peninsula, 3.5 °C warmer than present, Mulvaney et al., 2012

“A marine sediment record from offshore of the western Antarctic Peninsula also shows an early Holocene optimum where surface ocean temperatures were determined to be ~3.5 °C warmer than present, while the George VI ice shelf on the southwestern Antarctic Peninsula was absent during this early Holocene warm interval before reforming in the mid Holocene.”

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Harvard Physicist: “Climate Science In Serious Trouble”…”Really Dirty People Doing Bad Stuff”

By on 20. August 2017

In a presentation (see below) Harvard astrophysicist Willie Soon came out blasting with both barrels at the corruption in climate science.

He started by saying that any respectable scientist would say that the American National Academy of Science (NAS) is “100 percent corrupt” and the climate scientists who put up the content at the NAS  are “really dangerous”, likening their solution for global warming to amputating a patient’s arms and legs in order to cure his headache.

Refuse to debate, like a religion

Soon says that there’s too much political activism in science and blasts global warming scientists’ refusal to debate the subject in public and compared global warming science to a religion, dubbing it “Scientism”. The public he says, is being confused by “political interference” in the science.

“In serious trouble”

The distinguished Harvard professor criticizes the hostile language used by global warming activists, which he feels played a role in the offices of 2 distinguished climate science skeptic professors being fired at with live munition. He presents a series of slides dibbed: “Science is in serious trouble.”

Reality disconnect

Soon believes that alarmist climate scientist Michael Mann is delusional as he seems to fancy himself to be someone who is rescuing the planet. Overall Soon paints a picture of scientists who have gone completely amok and are totally disconnected from reality, citing an IPCC request that the world pay 535 TRILLION DOLLARS for the carbon sin and NASA’s Gavin Schmidt claim that man is now driving the climate more than 100%.

The list of things that are alleged to be caused by global warming and CO2 is reaching absurd dimensions, Soon shows, e.g. more muddy pet paws, birds singing differently.

Collusion, bullying and censorship

One problem that Soon elaborates is that of scientific “censorship and bullying”, and that it is rampant. Inside climate alarmists constantly collude to shut out other opinions and to smear the reputations of scientists who do not agree. Soon openly says that they are “really dirty people, doing bad stuff”.

Paranoia, contemplations of suicide

At the 33-minute mark, Soon presents a chart showing how global warming scientists, having been frustrated by the skeptic scientists, discussed revamping the peer-review process in order to keep skeptic papers from being published. He mentions how Prof. Phil Jones became so desperate with the fear of being exposed that he “contemplated suicide”.

“Yellow star”

Soon shows how the American Geophysical Union Conference blocked out scientists who had different viewpoints. The censorship was so blatant that Soon dropped his membership. The Harvard astrophysicist is so feared and hated by the global warming alarmism community that he is forced to seek out private funding. One journal, he says, even employed the “yellow star” to designate Soon as a scientist to be wary of, a tactic Soon says is “really Nazi territory”.

On his nemesis Michael Mann, the author of the now debunked and disgraced hockey stick chart paper, Soon calls him a “sad guy”, who even equates himself to a Holocaust survivor, and a scientist who avoids the science and focusses more on personal attacks.

Soon summarizes: with 2 conclusions:

 

 

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German Handelsblatt Reports On Electric Batteries: “Unreliable”, “Fire-Hazard”, “Impractical”

By on 19. August 2017

Germany’s top business daily Handelsblatt here reports that although lithium-ion batteries promise to become efficient someday, they continue to be plagued by technical problems, calling them “unreliable and a fire hazard“.

Video: Electric cars continue to be plagued by safety and technical issues (not featured in Handelsblatt story, for illustration only).

The Handelsblatt cites expert battery consultant Karl Nestmeier, who travels across Europe and advises companies on the use of lithium-ion batteries. According to the Handelsblatt:

What Nestmeier has seen during his travels as an expert, not only makes him shake his head, but also infuriates him.”

Nestmeier has seen metals twisted from the intense heat generated by the batteries, calling them a “technical-safety disaster“. If used for homes, they could cause fires, or produce dangerous gases that would damage lungs. Nestmeier believes that some of the batteries should be illegal due to their high potential hazard.

Handelsblatt writes that as the solar boom continues, there’s a correspondingly increased high potential for danger, and that companies have done too little to improve safety. One reason behind this, Handelsblatt writes, is the “insufficient product liability laws“. Many companies refuse to accept any liability for malfunctions in their general terms and conditions, and get away with it.

A number of manufacturers, some from Asia, offer budget quality cells along with unrealistic “lifetime and safety promises” that make them almost impossible to resist.

German Environment Minister ditches electric car

In other news, the Environment Minister of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine Westphalia, has decided to ditch her e-car, Bild reports here. The reason: According to Bild, Christina Schulze Föcking says her Tesla lacks the necessary range to make it practical.

Hypocrisy…Green party candidate opts for diesel

In Austria Green Party candidate Ulrike Lunacek has been using a small bus for travel between her campaign stops, according to the Kurier.at here. You’d think the vehicle would be outfitted with an electric drive and batteries so that it could run on the clean, green energy that they constantly preach about.

Wrong!

It turns out that Lunacek is using a diesel-engine-powered vehicle – the very type that all European greens have been blasting since the German diesel scandal broke out. An electric one, the Kurier.at writes, would only have a range of under 200 km, and so not enough to get around in any practical manner.

Hypocrisy among Greens knows no limits it seems. Obviously even the Greens themselves are not even sold on what they preach. That sort of low grade technology is good enough for the masses, but not for government officials.

 

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2017 First Half Global Natural Catastrophe Damage Drops More Than 63%!

By on 18. August 2017

Munich Re stumped: wonders why damages from natural catastrophes have fallen dramatically

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt)
(translated/edited by P Gosselin)

One of the most often named consequences of climate change is the prognosticated increase in extreme weather damage. At the forefront stood the insurance companies which loudly warned and thus stealthily laid out the groundwork for new customer acquisitions and higher premiums. But there’s one small problem: the climate refuses to play along with the climate establishment. The online Bayerische Staatszeitung (Bavarian State News) reported on July 18, 2017 on the latest development:

Less damage from natural catastrophes

In the first half of this year it was comparably quiet on the planet

In the first half of the year the planet suffered less from heavy natural catastrophes when compared to the long-term mean. According to figures from reinsurer Munich Re, damage worldwide due to natural catastrophes amounted to 41 billion dollars (approx. 35.7 billion euros) from the start of January to the end of June. That was less than half of the 111 billion dollars of damage due to natural catastrophes that had occurred in the first half of 2016.”

Read more at the Bayerischen Staatszeitung.

==================================================

Munich Re: Damage from “cold snap in late spring”

By P Gosselin

And according to the highly dramatized Munich Re press release here, the largest share of the damage, 18.1 billion dollars, came from “many thunderstorms and tornadoes in the USA”.

Overall the 10-year average global natural catastrophe damage for the first half of the year is 102 billion dollars, Munich Re writes here. This makes the 2017 first half year dramatically mild.

Munich Re sales pitch: But do stay alarmed!

Munich Re Board member Torsten Jeworrek: “The exceptional accumulation of severe thunderstorms in the USA highlights just how important it is for insurers to have in-depth knowledge of natural catastrophes and how these are affected by climatic changes. This is true of both natural climatic changes and those that are man-made. Insurers not only help to overcome losses, they also improve our understanding of what triggers them. This is a fundamental basis for preventing future losses.”

Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research: “The unusual atmospheric conditions in the USA in the first half of 2017 provided the perfect conditions for powerful supercell thunderstorms, which frequently bring major hailstorms and tornadoes. The number of tornadoes observed in the first quarter of 2017 was twice as high as the average for the last ten years.”

The Munich Re did not report the number of tornadoes for the first half.

Damage from “cold snap in late spring”

Another contributor to the natural catastrophe damage was a “cold snap in late spring”, the Munich Re added.

Some unusual weather events in Europe made a substantial contribution to the overall losses of €4.4bn, of which €1.7bn was insured. One event with very high losses that will not be remembered by many as a real natural catastrophe was a cold snap in April that affected a number of European countries. Temperatures as low as minus 7 degrees and snowfall in many parts of Europe in the second half of April resulted in serious frost losses in the agricultural sector, mainly vineyards and orchards.”

 

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Russian Scientists Find ‘Appreciable Contribution’ From Natural Variability, Solar Forcing To Recent Warming

By on 17. August 2017

Most Of Warming Trend Since 1980s

Is Naturally Driven, Not CO2-Driven

According to a new statistical analysis of centennial-scale surface temperature changes, half (0.5 °C) of the warming trend over the last 135 years (0.95 °C) can be explained by both (a) the existence of commonly-occurring natural (non-anthropogenic) variations of temperature that can reach the same amplitudes of the modern trend (see above image), and (b) external factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gases, with the latter factor accounting for “less than is commonly believed”.

Scientist Dr. Maxim Ogurtsov and his colleagues cite extensive evidence that any external forcing of the modern trend that falls outside the range of natural variability can be appreciably attributed to non-greenhouse factors.

Ogurtsov et al., 2017

It is widely accepted also that this global warming is caused primarily by anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases concentration . However debates on this question still continue.
Some experts maintain that current warming does not exceed the natural fluctuations of climate. Evidence of appreciable contribution to global warming of non-greenhouse factors has been obtained by many authors.
1.  Soon et al., 2015 noted that if the urbanization effect is properly taken into account, one can conclude that solar variability is the dominant factor of Northern Hemisphere long-term temperature changes since at least 1881.
2.  Zhao and Feng, 2014 reported that variations in solar activity play an important role in changes of climate over global scale during the last more than 100 years.
3.  According to Harde (2014), the Sun is the main contributor to global warming of the last century.
4.  Lüdeсke et al. (2014) showed that variations of Central European temperature after 1757 were likely governed by periodic oscillations resulted from intrinsic climatic dynamics.
5.  Scafetta (2010) and Scafetta (2012) claimed that the global climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 were appreciably influenced by astronomic planetary cycles, particularly by motion of Jupiter and Saturn.
6.  Swanson and Tsonis, 2009 noted that in the period 1900-2000 Northern Hemisphere climate variability might be partly explained by chaotic dynamics.
7.  Privalsky and Fortus (2011) modeled variations of global temperature during 1850- 2009 as an autoregressive process of the fourth order. They arrived at a conclusion that global warming of the last 150 years could be fully explained by natural climatic variability without any external forcing.

Conclusion

[I]t is reasonable to regard the global warming as a phenomenon exceptional from the point of view of intrinsic climatic oscillations, which need an additional external forcing factor for explanation. On the other hand, the statistical experiments showed that an appreciable part of the global warming might be a result of natural fluctuations of climatic system. … [O]ur results show that the contribution of these external factors (including greenhouse effect) to the global warming could be less than is often believed.
Changes in the solar radiation at the Earth’s surface (global brightening) might be important source of the warming of the last decades (Ogurtsov et al., 2012).

Surface Incident Solar Radiation Trend Since The 1980s Can Explain All Recent Warming (And More)

As noted in their conclusion above, Ogurtsov and colleagues have previously published a paper that establishes surface incident solar radiation (SSR) – solar radiation absorbed (or not) by the Earth’s surface (oceans) via decadal-scale reductions (or increases) in cloud cover – can account for all of the radiative forcing of temperature changes during the 1983 to 2001 period, when surface temperatures increased by about 0.5 °C.   In fact, the intensity of the direct, shortwave forcing during that 18-year period – 3 W m–2 to 6-7 W m–2 – was larger than the resulting temperature change itself.

Ogurtsov et al., 2012

Changes in the climate of the Earth depend evidently on the background solar irradiance, i.e. on the amount of shortwave solar radiation incoming into the atmosphere and the fraction of this radiation, which is reflected back to the space. Recent evidence show that solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface has increased appreciably in the end of 20th century (Pallé et al, 2006). The phenomenon is often called a global brightening.
Change in background solar radiation through 1983- 2001 causes a positive radiative forcing ranging from 3 W × m–2 to 6 – 7 W × m–2 . If we take a value of climatic sensitivity adopted by IPCC, we obtain that increase of the global temperature by 1.5˚C – 3.6°C is a result of the radiative forcing of 3 W × m–2.

In Contrast, CO2 Forcing Contributes Just 0.2 W m–2  Per Decade To Modern Warming

According to climate models, the total climate forcing effect of the roughly 120 parts per million (ppm) increase in atmospheric CO2 during the ~165 years since 1750 is 1.8 W m–2.

As assessed in a 2015 paper published in the journal Nature, the CO2 concentration increased by 22 ppm during the first 10 years of the 21st century.  The radiative forcing (warming) effect of this 22 ppm CO2 increase was modeled to be 0.2 W m–2.  So of the 1.8 W m–2 of total CO2 radiative forcing since 1750, 0.2 W m–2 was added during the first decade of this century.

So if CO2 forcing accounts for roughly 0.2 W m–2 per decade of the globe’s radiative forcing with an increase of 22 parts per million (ppm), and if surface incident solar radiation (SSR) accounts for 3 to 6-7 W m–2 for the 18-year period (~2.5 W m–2 per decade)between 1983 and 2001, it could be reasonably concluded that surface incident solar radiation could account for at least 10 times more of the modern climate forcing as CO2 increases have.  Graphed, the difference in trends may look like this:

In sum, not only is the variation in temperature of the last 135 years not remarkable or outside the range of what can be achieved naturally or internally, but the magnitude of the external forcing from surface incident solar radiation for recent decades far exceeds the reputed attribution from CO2 concentration changes.   Therefore, it could reasonably be said that there is no clear anthropogenic signal detectable in the climate changes of the last 135 years when one considers the contexts of natural variation and natural climate forcing.

Supporting Scientific Papers

Goode and Palle, 2007

The decrease in the Earth’s reflectance from 1984 to 2000 […] translates into a Bond albedo decrease of 0.02 (out of the nominal value of about 0.30) or an additional global shortwave forcing of 6.8 Wm2. To put that in perspective, the latest IPCC report (IPCC, 2001) argues for a 2.4 Wm2 increase in CO2 longwave forcing since 1850. The temporal variations in the albedo are closely associated with changes in the cloud cover.
Conclusion: In this paper we have reviewed the physical mechanisms behind solar irradiance variation, and we have reviewed how on the timescale of solar evolution, the Sun cannot have been any dimmer than it is at the most recent activity minima. We have also shown how concurrent changes in the Earth’s reflectance can produce a much larger climate impact over relatively short time scales. Thus, a possible Sun–albedo link, would have the potential to produce large climate effects without the need for significant excursions in solar irradiance. These could provide an explanation for the apparently large climate response to apparently small solar changes, as well as how the 11/22 year solar cycle is imprinted on Earth. Regardless of its possible solar ties, we have seen how the Earth’s large scale reflectance—and the short wavelength part of the Earth’s radiation budget—is a much more variable climate parameter than previously thought and, thus, deserves to be studied in as much detail as changes in the Sun’s output or changes in the Earth’s atmospheric infrared emission produced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Herman et al., 2013

[T]here has been a global net decrease [of 3.6%] in 340 nm cloud plus aerosol reflectivity [which has led to] an increase of 2.7 W m−2 of solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface and an increase of 1.4% or 2.3 W m−2 absorbed by the surface [between 1979 and 2011].

Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2017

Downward surface solar radiation (SSR) is a critical part of the Global Energy Balance and the climate system … Pinker et al. (2005) used a different product (2.5° resolution) and found that the derived global mean SSR series underwent a significant increase of 1.6 W m−2 per decade from 1983 to 2001. … On the other hand, Hatzianastassiou et al. (2005) derived a SSR product from 1984 to 2000 (2.5° resolution) and reported a significant increase of +2.4 W m−2 per decade in the global mean series, which is considerably higher than the results from Pinker et al. (2005) and Hinkelman et al. (2009).

Posselt et al., 2014

Global [surface solar] radiation has an overall positive, and significant, trend [1983-2010] over the Meteosat disk which is mainly due to a negative trend in the effective cloud albedo, i.e., a decrease in cloudiness. Trends due to changes in the clear sky radiation are small and only induced by trends in the water vapor fields. Trends caused by changes in the direct effects of atmospheric aerosol are not represented because an aerosol climatology is used.
All considered regions show positive trends for the extended CM SAF surface radiation dataset pointing to an increase in solar surface radiation and, thus, a brightening by either a decrease in cloudiness or a decreased atmospheric absorption of solar radiation. However, the extent and also the significance of the trends in the different regions vary substantially. The trend for Europe of 4.35 W m− 2 dec− 1 is in the order of trends derived from surface measurements by Wild (2012) of 2 W m− 2 / dec− 1 for the 1980s to 2000 and 3 W m− 2 / dec− 1 after 2000.

Wild et al., 2005

The changes in both satellite derived and measured surface insolation data are also in line with changes in global cloudiness provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), which show an increase until the late 1980s and a decrease thereafter, on the order of 5% from the late 1980s to 2002. A recent reconstruction of planetary albedo based on the earthshine method, which also depends on ISCCP cloud data, reports a similar decrease during the 1990s. Over the period covered so far by BSRN (1992 to 2001), the decrease in earth reflectance corresponds to an increase of 6 W m-2 in absorbed solar radiation by the globe. The overall change observed at the BSRN sites, estimated as an average of the slopes at the sites in Fig. 2A, is 0.66 W m-2 per year (6.6 W m-2 over the entire BSRN period).

McLean, 2014

The reduction in total cloud cover of 6.8% [between 1984 – 2009] means that 5.4 Wm−2 (6.8% of 79) is no longer being reflected but acts instead as an extra forcing into the atmosphere… To put this [5.4 Wm-2 of solar radiative forcing via cloud cover reduction between 1984-2009] into context, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report…states that the total anthropogenic radiative forcing for 2011 relative to 1750 is 2.29 Wm−2 for all greenhouse gases and for carbon dioxide alone is 1.68 Wm−2.  The increase in radiative forcing caused by the reduction in total cloud cover over 10 years is therefore more than double the IPCC’s estimated radiative forcing for all greenhouse gases and more than three times greater than the forcing by carbon dioxide alone [from 1750 to present].

Hukuba et al., 2017

At 36 locations worldwide, we estimate the cloud radiative effect (CREatm) on atmospheric solar absorption (ASRatm) by combining ground-based measurements of surface solar radiation (SSR) with collocated satellite-derived surface albedo and top-of-atmosphere net irradiance under both all-sky and clear-sky conditions. To derive continuous clear-sky SSR from Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) in-situ measurements of global and diffuse SSR, we make use of the Long and Ackerman (2000) algorithm that identifies clear-sky measurements and empirically fits diurnal clear-sky irradiance functions using the cosine of the solar zenith angle as the independent variable. The 11-year average (2000-2010) CREatm (all-sky minus clear-sky) is overall positive at around +11 Wm-2 using direct measurements form ground and space, and at 4 Wm−2 in the CERES EBAF dataset. This discrepancy arises from a potential overestimation in clear-sky absorption by the satellite product or underestimation by the combined BSRN/CERES dataset. The forcing ratio R shows that clouds enhance ASRatm most distinctly at desert-like locations that overall experience little occurrence of clouds. This relationship is captured by both the combined dataset and CERES EBAF.

Avakyan, 2013

The author associates the recently observed climate warming and carbon dioxide concentration growth in the lower atmospheric layers with variations of solar-geomagnetic activity in global cloud formation and the significant decrease in the role of forests in carbon dioxide accumulation in the process of photosynthesis. The contribution of the greenhouse effect of carbon-containing gases to global warming turns out to be insignificant.

Wielicki et al., 2002

It is widely assumed that variations in Earth’s radiative energy budget at large time and space scales are small. We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought. Results indicate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes in tropical mean cloudiness. The results of several current climate model simulations fail to predict this large observed variation in tropical energy budget. The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.

Stozhkov et al., 2017

The global millennial temperature rising trend seen in Figure 11 from 1984 to the peak and trend inversion point in the Hadcrut3 data at 2003/4 is the inverse correlative of the Tropical Cloud Cover fall from 1984 to the Millennial trend change at 2002. The lags in these trends from the solar activity peak at 1991 (Figure 10) are 12 and 11 years, respectively. These correlations suggest possible teleconnections between the GCR flux, clouds, and global temperatures.

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Unanticipated Stability: Latest Polar Conditions Show No Signs Of Global Warming Melting

By on 16. August 2017

Weather and climate analyst Schneefan here writes of “early frost” in the Arctic and how Greenland snow and ice have grown after being hit by a “snow bomb”. This contradicts the expectations of global warming alarmists.

The polar summer this year appears to have ended prematurely. The mean temperature of the central Arctic above 80°N has remained under the long-term average over the entire summer and even dipped below the freezing point about a week earlier than normal (1958-2002 mean).

Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.ph

Massive Greenland “snow bomb”

An unusually early and massive snowfall in northwest Greenland led to a record high surface snow and ice mass budget, despite the summer melt season. In one single day, 14 August 2017, the ice and snow grew by a whopping 6 billion tonnes.

The following DMI Greenland snow and ice mass budget chart clearly shows the “snow bomb” as the blue curve spikes sharply upwards. Such a spike has never been seen for this time of the year.

The upper DMI chart above shows the daily ice growth/loss since 1 September 2016 until 14 August 2017 in billions of tonnes. The lower chart shows the accumulated surface mass balance. Source www.dmi.dk/greenland-surface-mass-budget/.

Note the latest small step upward in the lower chart, which is unusual in August because it is supposed to be the melt season. The approximately 670 billion tonnes of accumulated ice mass reached last May is new record. Note that this year is some 450 billion tonnes of ice above the level of this time in 2012 (red curve).

The weather forecast for Hall Land in northern Greenland forecasts more snow on the way, after a few days of above freezing weather.

Strong Arctic sea ice growth

The Central Arctic sea ice extent this August is considerably greater than it was over the past years.

The Maisie plot shows the central Arctic sea ice extent, 14 August. This year has by a large margin the greatest extent in five years. Source: nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

Passages still closed

So far this year both the Northwest and Northeast passage in the Arctic are only passable by ice breakers, as the chart below shows:

Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

Arctic ice volume (chart, upper right) currently is within the normal range of the past years.

Southern hemisphere temperature plummeting

Globally especially the southern hemisphere 2m temperature anomaly has been in a free fall, as the following chart with 1 week projection illustrates.

 Source: karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Poles stable over past decade

Overall, the recent early cold conditions in the Arctic of course are weather, but is weather that was not expected by many. In general the Arctic has shown unanticipated stability over the past 10 years. That’s been a real surprise to a number of global warming scientists.

 

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WUWT “One Of The Most Radical Climate-Denier Blogs” …Their Purpose: “Permanently Produce Fake News”

By on 15. August 2017

Here’s a good example of how climate alarmists and leftists in Germany react when confronted with different opinions or the truth. It just illustrates the brand of radicalism we’re up against.

Last week on August 8 Germany’s top climate alarmism propaganda site Klimaretter (Climate Rescuers) here reported on the “explosive” US government climate report that was “leaked” to the New York Times.

Supposedly the Trump Administration was suppressing the “leaked” report and fighting to keep it out of the public’s view. And now that it was out, the Trump government found itself “under pressure”.

Then a couple of days later, it emerged in the US media that the report had in truth not been kept away from public view after all, and that the New York Times really hadn’t broken any “explosive” story. The report had in fact long been available to anyone for months.

The New York Times even had to issue a humiliating correction and clarification for the “large screw-up“.

On  August 11, reader Reinhard Lange left a comment at Klimaretter pointing out that their story was faulty and needed to be urgently corrected. Lange provided a link to WUWT for Klimaretter, so that they could get the details.

The blunder of course was highly embarrassing for the extremely devout Klimaretter site, and one of their attack dogs, reader Martok, immediately responded (above):

Watts Up with That is one of the most radical climate-denier blogs that exists in the entire Internet. This site has only one purpose, namely to permanently produce fake news and to write exactly the opposite of what the latest research tells us. ‘Information’ from there has no value whatsoever because this site is a pure propaganda platform that only wishes to spread disinformation.”

This is a typical reaction one often gets from radical alarmists in Germany. Contrary information gets immediately regarded as blasphemy. Denial mode gets immediately activated.

Undeterred, Lange persisted, first wondering why such an aggressive attitude on the part of Martok, and then pointed out to Klimaretter that the report draft had long since been available, and that even the NYT itself issued a (half-hearted) correction.

Next Klimaretter lapdog Regim responded next, insisting that the US government never officially released the report, and then accused Lange of copying from the WUWT “climate denier blog”. She demanded of Lange:

Why wasn’t the report published on a government site and presented to the public? Why was only a draft published?

A disbelieving Lange in turn replied, “Are you really that clueless?“, and then explained where to find the report and that there was nothing unusual with anything.

Not good enough. Regim demanded an address to the government site containing the draft report.

So Lange instructed her to try using a tool called “a search engine”. Again Regim demanded a direct address:

and warned (marked yellow) above:

If you again answer in this way for a third time, then I’m going to ask Moderation to ban you.”

Lange replied that they should feel free to ban him, and again told her where to get the information on the story, adding that details could be found among other places at an article by the Daily Caller before wishing her luck.

Still not good enough for Regim. The Daily Caller too is a “right-extremist” paper, she insisted.

By now Klimaretter’s embarrassment was becoming full-scale humiliation, as it was clear that the original NYT article was seriously flawed.

At this point a normal outlet would have long since issued a correction. But not Klimaretter. Rather than thanking Lange for pointing out the story’s major flaw, correcting it and apologizing, Klimaretter banned Lange:

In English:

User banned (multiple disparaging  comments, ‘trolling’)

That’s the reward one gets in Germany for bringing out the truth – you get banned because insisting on the truth that demolishes the narrative is “trolling”. As far as I know, Klimaretter continues to stand by its story, even though the NYT issued a correction.

Is it possible to engage in a discussion with the likes of Klimaretter? Obviously the answer is no. An open discussion is the last thing they seek. What they want is a discussion shut-down.

In case Klimaretter may still be interested, they can refer to the Washington Post here. Yes, the NYT piece was crap. Time to stop hiding.

Thanks, Reinhard Lange. You exposed how these people really work.

 

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35 New Papers Affirm Warmth, Elevated CO2 Are Good For The Earth And Its Inhabitants

By on 14. August 2017

Future Global Warming Scenarios ‘Potentially Beneficial’, Cooling May Cause Ecological ‘Declines’

Fan et al., 2017

“Our data suggest that future global warming scenarios would potentially be beneficial for the hydrological and ecological conditions of the EASM [East Asian Summer Monsoon] margin, while small decreases in the precipitation and temperature superimposed on the long-term deteriorated climate  may cause large declines in the hydrology and ecology in the semi-arid regions of northern China.”

Human Health Risks ‘Extremely Sensitive’ To Temperature, With Cold Temperatures More Dangerous

Wang et al., 2017

“Numerous previous studies have reported that human health risk is extremely sensitive to temperature. … At the community level, the mean value of relative extreme cold risk (1.63) of all 122 communities was higher than that of extreme high temperature (1.15). … A prolonged impact of low temperature [cold] on human health was observed in China”

Mass Extinctions Caused By Cold Temperatures (Ice Ages), Not Global Warming

Baresel et al., 2017

“The Earth has known several mass extinctions over the course of its history. One of the most important happened at the Permian-Triassic boundary 250 million years ago. Over 95% of marine species disappeared and, up until now, scientists have linked this extinction to a significant rise in Earth temperatures. But researchers have now discovered that this extinction took place during a short ice age which preceded the global climate warming. It’s the first time that the various stages of a mass extinction have been accurately understood and that scientists have been able to assess the major role played by volcanic explosions in these climate processes.”

Warming Leads To Less Extreme, Unstable Weather, Cooling Does The Opposite

Zhang et al., 2017

“Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.”

Kawamura et al., 2017

“Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.”

Heller, 2017

“The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE). In general, the results of this study corroborate these findings.”
“[W]hile hurricane activity was greater during the LIA, it also had more frequent periods of drought compared to the MCA (Burn and Palmer 2014), suggesting that climate fluctuations were more pronounced in the LIA compared to the MCA. The changes in the diatom distribution and fluctuations in chl-a recorded in this study starting around 1350 also indicate that variations in climate have become more distinct during the LIA and from ~1850-1900. … [C]limate variability has increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO.”

Warming Leads To Fewer And Less Intense Hurricanes

Chen et al., 2017

“Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. …  Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent. Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.”

Choi et al., 2017

“This study analysed the time series of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during October–December (OND) for 32 years (1980–2011). There was a strong decreasing trend of TCs [tropical cyclones] until recently, and the TC sharply decreased from 1996 after the statistical change-point analysis was applied to this time series.”

Wellford et al., 2017

“Since the late 1800s, in contrast to much of the Southeastern USA, the Georgia coast has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls, particularly in recent decades. As a result, coastal storm preparedness complacency appears to be rampant along the Georgia coastline. Both local and state governments were unprepared for shadow evacuation during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The study described here includes an examination of temporal and spatial trends in hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast from 1750 to 2012. Since 1750, 18 of the 24 recorded hurricanes that made landfall along the Georgia coast occurred between 1801 and 1900, yet the hurricane intensities have declined since 1851.”

Stable Or Decreasing Trends In Drought And Flood Frequency With Warming

McAneney et al., 2017

“[A] 122-year record of major flooding depths at the Rarawai Sugar Mill on the Ba River in the northwest of the Fijian Island of Viti Levu is analysed. … It exhibits no statistically significant trends in either frequency or flood heights, once the latter have been adjusted for average relative sea-level rise. This is despite persistent warming of air temperatures as characterized in other studies. There is a strong dependence of frequency (but not magnitude) upon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, with many more floods in La Niña phases. The analysis of this long-term data series illustrates the difficulty of detecting a global climate change signal from hazard data, even given a consistent measurement methodology (cf HURDAT2 record of North Atlantic hurricanes) and warns of the strong dependence of any statistical significance upon choices of start and end dates of the analysis.”

McCabe et al., 2017

“In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. … Results indicated that … the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.”

Higher CO2 Concentrations Are Greening The Earth, Reducing Desert Area And Drought Stress

Bastos et al., 2017

“The sustained increasing vegetation activity trend (greening) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has been a prominent feature in satellite observations since the 1980s and is consistently simulated by models. The trend in vegetation greenness has been linked to increasing growing season length at high latitudes and enhancemed terrestrial CO2 uptake in northern ecosystems. The greening pace has been associated with asymmetric effects of climate trends in vegetation activity or variations in the climate forcing. It has also been shown that regional greening trends are further attributed to land use change, land management, CO2 fertilization, and nitrogen deposition”

Li et al., 2017

“[M]aternal CO2 environment modulated the response of wheat plants to drought stress in terms of biomass production, [such that] plants reared from seeds harvested from the e[CO2] maternal growth environment eliminated the negative impact of drought stress on DM [dry biomass]. … [T]ransgenerational exposure to e[CO2] also attenuated the negative impact of drought on evapotranspiration in wheat plants. … [T]ransgenerational exposure of wheat plants to e[CO2] [elevated CO2] could attenuate the negative impact of drought stress in terms of DM and WUE [water use efficiency].”

Brandt et al., 2017

“Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992–2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km2) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth.”

(press release)

“Africa has become greener in the last 20 years … [M]ore CO2 in the atmosphere together with a wetter, warmer planet, provides conditions that help trees and bushes to grow.”

Bastin et al., 2017

“We show that in 2015, 1327 million hectares of drylands had more than 10% tree-cover, and 1079 million hectares comprised forest. Our estimate is 40 to 47% higher than previous estimates, corresponding to 467 million hectares of forest that have never been reported before. This increases current estimates of global forest cover by at least 9%.”

Regional Sea Level Changes Unremarkable…Land Area Above Sea Level Expanding

Mörner, 2017

“Coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, historical documentation, and tide gauge records allowed us to establish a very firm and detailed record of the changes in sea level in Goa over the last 500 years. It is an oscillation record: a low level in the early 16th century, a ~50-cm high[er than now] level in the 17th century, a level below present sea level in the 18th century, a ~20-cm high level in the 19th and early 20th centuries, a ~20-cm fall in 1955–1962, and a virtually stable level over the last 50 years. This sea level record is almost identical to those obtained in the Maldives and in Bangladesh. The Indian Ocean seems to lack records of any alarming sea-level rise in recent decades; on the contrary, 10 sites analyzed indicate a sea level remaining at about 60.0, at least over the last 50 years or so.”

Watson, 2017

“The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled ‘‘msltrend,’’ specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity, and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean water level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.”

Donchyts et al., 2016

Earth’s surface water change over the past 30 years [1985-2015]  … “Earth’s surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas.”

(press release)

Coastal areas were also analysed, and to the scientists’ surprise, coastlines had gained more land – 33,700 sq km (13,000 sq miles) – than they had been lost to water (20,100 sq km or 7,800 sq miles).  “We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr Baart.  “We’re were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking.”

Warming, ‘Acidification’ Not Harming – Even Benefiting – Marine Species

Toyofuku et al., 2017

“Ongoing ocean acidification is widely reported to reduce the ability of calcifying marine organisms to produce their shells and skeletons. Whereas increased dissolution due to acidification is a largely inorganic process, strong organismal control over biomineralization influences calcification and hence complicates predicting the response of marine calcifyers. Here we show that calcification is driven by rapid transformation of bicarbonate into carbonate inside the cytoplasm, achieved by active outward proton pumping. Moreover, this proton flux is maintained over a wide range of pCO2 levels. We furthermore show that a V-type H+ ATPase is responsible for the proton flux and thereby calcification. External transformation of bicarbonate into CO2 due to the proton pumping implies that biomineralization does not rely on availability of carbonate ions, but total dissolved CO2 may not reduce calcification, thereby potentially maintaining the current global marine carbonate production.”

(press release)

“[A] group of scientists discovered to their own surprise that some tiny unicellular shellfish (foraminifera) make better shells in an acidic environment. This is a completely new insight.”

Ollier, 2017

“The coast contains ‘carbonate sand factories’ where organisms produce vast amounts of sand by fixing carbon dioxide as carbonates. Far from dissolving carbonate by acidification, carbon dioxide is an essential part of carbonate production and the continued maintenance and growth of coasts and reefs. Government policies to adapt renewable energy are unlikely to affect the system.”

McElhany, 2017

“Documenting an effect of OA [ocean acidification] involves showing a change in a species (e.g. population abundance or distribution) as a consequence of anthropogenic changes in marine carbonate chemistry. To date, there have been no unambiguous demonstrations of a population level effect of anthropogenic OA [ocean acidification], as that term is defined by the IPCC. … [I]t is important to acknowledge that there are no studies that directly demonstrate modern day effects of OA [ocean acidification] on marine species.”

Mardones et al., 2017

“Exposure of the toxigenic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella to variations in pCO2/pH, comparable to current and near-future levels observed in Southern Chilean fjords, revealed potential functional adaptation mechanisms. Under calculated conditions for pH(total scale) and pCO2 ranging from 7.73–8.66 to 69.7–721.3 μatm, respectively, the Chilean strain Q09 presented an optimum growth rate and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) uptake at near-equilibrium pCO2/pH conditions (∼8.1). … We suggest that A. catenella Chilean strains are highly adapted to spatio-temporal pCO2/pH fluctuations in Chilean fjords, becoming a resilient winner from expected climate change effects.”

Glandon et al., 2017

“No effect of high pCO2 on juvenile blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, growth and consumption despite positive responses to concurrent warming … Our study is the first to examine the effect of multiple climate stressors on blue crab and therefore basic responses, including the growth per molt (GPM), inter-molt period (IMP), and food consumption, were quantified. GPM [growth per molt] was not affected by either increased temperature or pCO2.”

Poulton et al., 2017

“For the first time, this study investigated the independent and combined impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and anthropogenic noise [produced by shipping, seismic surveys, and pile-driving] on the behaviour of a marine fish, the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax).  … Elevated CO2 did not alter the ventilation rate response to noise. Furthermore, there was no interaction effect between elevated CO2 and pile-driving noise, suggesting that OA [ocean acidification] is unlikely to influence startle or ventilatory responses of fish to anthropogenic noise.”

Cooper et al., 2017

“We determined tolerances of E. pacifica to prolonged exposure to pH levels predicted for 2100 by maintaining adults at two pCO2 levels (380 and 1200 µatm) for 2 months. Rates of survival and moulting were the same at both pCO2 levels. High pCO2 slowed growth in all size classes.”

Hassenrück et al., 2017

“Our results suggest that on mature settlement surfaces in situ, pH does not have a strong impact on the composition of bacterial biofilms. Other abiotic and biotic factors such as light exposure and interactions with other organisms may be more important in shaping bacterial biofilms on mature surfaces than changes in seawater pH.”

Lee and Kim, 2017

“High atmospheric CO2 dissolves into the surface of the ocean and lowers the pH of seawater and is thus expected to pose a potential threat to various marine organisms. We investigated the physiological and behavioural responses of adult Manila clams, Venerupis philippinarum (n = 96, shell length 25.32 ± 1.66mm and total wet weight 3.10 ± 0.54 g), to three levels (400, 700, and 900 μatm) of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) for 48 days. There were no significant differences in mortality, growth, respiration rate, or emergence from the sediment between the three levels, indicating that near future atmospheric levels of CO2 do not seem to have a serious effect on the physiology and behaviour of adult Manila clams.”

Page et al., 2017

“Here, we test the hypotheses that elevated pCO2 will differently impact the relative concentrations of divalent cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, and Mn2+) in four closely related species of porcelain crabs … Overall, the effect of reduced pH/elevated pCO2 on exoskeleton mineral composition was muted in mid-intertidal species relative to low-intertidal species, indicating that extant adaptation to the variable intertidal zone may lessen the impact of ocean acidification (OA) on maintenance of mineralized structures.”

Kienzle et al., 2017

“Rising temperatures increased recruitment of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)”

Long et al., 2017

“In this study, we determine the effects of decreased pH on the morphology, growth, and survival of juvenile blue king crab, Paralithodes platypus. Crabs were reared at three pH levels: ambient (control, pH ∼8.1), pH 7.8, and pH 7.5, for 1 year and monitored for morphological changes, survival, and growth. Exposure to seawater at pH 7.8 had no effect on morphology or mortality and had only a minor effect on growth compared with the ambient treatment.”

Comeau et al., 2017

“Here, we tested the response of net photosynthesis, gross photosynthesis, dark respiration, and light-enhanced dark respiration (LEDR) of eight coral taxa and seven calcified alga taxa to six different pCO2 levels (from 280 to 2000 µatm). Organisms were maintained during 7–10 days incubations in identical conditions of light, temperature, and pCO2 to facilitate comparisons among species. Net photosynthesis was not affected by pCO2 in seven of eight corals or any of the algae; gross photosynthesis did not respond to pCO2 in six coral taxa and six algal taxa; dark respiration also was unaffected by pCO2 in six coral and six algae; and LEDR did not respond to pCO2 in any of the tested species. Overall, our results show that pCO2 levels up to 2000 µatm likely will not fertilize photosynthesis or modify respiration rates of most of the main calcifiers on the back reef of Moorea, French Polynesia.”

Bailey et al., 2017

“Early life stages of the Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis are unaffected by increased seawater pCO2 … In this study, we investigated the effect of increased pCO2 on the early developmental stages of the key Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis. Eggs from wild-caught C. glacialis females from Svalbard, Norway (80°N), were cultured for 2 months to copepodite stage C1 in 2°C seawater under four pCO2 treatments (320, 530, 800, and 1700 μatm). … All endpoints were unaffected by pCO2 levels projected for the year 2300. These results indicate that naupliar development in wild populations of C. glacialis is unlikely to be detrimentally affected in a future high CO2 ocean.”

Schaum et al., 2017

“Here, we use a decade-long experiment in outdoor mesocosms to investigate mechanisms of adaptation to warming (+4 °C above ambient temperature) in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, in naturally assembled communities. Isolates from warmed mesocosms had higher optimal growth temperatures than their counterparts from ambient treatments. Consequently, warm-adapted isolates were stronger competitors at elevated temperature and experienced a decline in competitive fitness in ambient conditions, indicating adaptation to local thermal regimes. Higher competitive fitness in the warmed isolates was linked to greater photosynthetic capacity and reduced susceptibility to photoinhibition. These findings suggest that adaptive responses to warming in phytoplankton could help to mitigate projected declines in aquatic net primary production by increasing rates of cellular net photosynthesis.”

Polar Bear Populations Not Declining, Sea Ice Loss Is Not Connected To Survival

Crockford, 2017

“Data collected between 2007 and 2015 reveal that polar bear numbers have not declined as predicted and no subpopulation has been extirpated. Several subpopulations expected to be at high risk of decline have remained stable and at least one showed a marked increase in population size over the entire period. Another at-risk subpopulation was not counted but showed marked improvement in reproductive parameters and body condition with less summer ice. As a consequence, the hypothesis that repeated summer sea ice levels of below 5 mkm2 will cause significant population declines in polar bears is rejected. This result indicates that the ESA and IUCN judgments to list polar bears as threatened based on future risks of habitat loss were hasty generalizations that were scientifically unfounded, which suggests that similar predictions for Arctic seals and walrus may be likewise flawed, while the lack of a demonstrable ‘sea ice decline = population decline’ relationship for polar bears invalidates updated survival model outputs that predict catastrophic population declines should the Arctic become ice-free in summer.”

York et al., 2016 

“Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses (PVA). … Considering both TEK [traditional ecological knowledge] and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis.”

 

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The 2017 ‘Global Warming Reality Check’: Experts Now Forecasting La Niña Conditions!

By on 13. August 2017

Schneefan at wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here does a good job summarizing weather and climate trends. His latest focuses on the ENSO, which is a powerful Pacific driver of global weather.

Earlier this year a number of experts projected that another El Niño would appear later this year, and thus keep global temperatures elevated and thus end the pause in global warming we’ve seen since the century began.

For example the May ECMWF ENSO projection saw powerful El Niño conditions brewing for this coming fall, with an anomaly of up to +3.0° K!

Source: ECMWF ENSO FORECAST.

But already in April other forecasters started revising their projections downwards as nature started to show she had other plans in mind. Today it strongly appears La Niña conditions are going to emerge after all.

The result? The “Al Gore effect”.

Expect the cooling we’ve seen over the past one and half years to continue even through 2018.

Figure 1: Global lower troposphere temperature (1500 m) anomalies have been cooling since the El Niño peaked in early 2016. Source: www.woodfortrees.org/graph/trend.

The mid August 2017 CFSv2 prognoses for the equatorial Pacific 3.4 zone surface temperature projections now indicate La Niña conditions by October:

Click to enlarge. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.html. 

To know what’s behind the latest development, we look at the ocean heat content anomalies of the upper 300 m of the ocean in the equatorial Pacific. The following chart shows a return to the negative range at the end of July 2017.

Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/MJO/enso.shtml

The following chart shows what’s going on just below the ocean surface:

Source: 4-month sequence of Pacific Ocean Equatorial temperature anomaly cross sections

Clear to see is the cold emerging La Niña mass under ocean surface in August 2017. That spells generally cooler global conditions for the months ahead.

Global warming “reality check” of 2017

With Arctic ice mass growing and the Antarctic showing cold surface anomalies, Schneefan calls the recent development: “The Global Warming“ Reality Check”!

Once again we see that experts are a long way from understanding what the system is doing, and thus make forecasts dealing with the climate totally fraught with uncertainty. We can only look forward to late fall.

 

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Near Record Cold Grips Tokyo, Far East …And Typhoons Trending Downward Since 1951!

By on 12. August 2017

And here I don’t mean the frosty atmosphere created by fat boy, Big Kim in NoKo.

Our skeptic in Japan, Kirye, informs us at Twitter that Tokyo saw its coldest August 11 in almost 60 years. She writes:

Not only Japan, Western Europe and USA are seeing cold weather, but New Zealand as well has been having unusually cold weather. According to the sott.net here, “New Zealand is currently experiencing its coldest winter since 2009” as the island country has been hit by heavy rainfall.

Typhoons trending downward over past 66 years

Kirye also brought up another interesting fact which once again contradicts all the climate alarmism hysteria. According to the Japanese Meteorological Association (JMA), the number of typhoons since 1951 has been trending DOWNWARD.

You can view a much better image here.

Meanwhile the number of typhoon landings for Japan is dead flat. There’s been no change despite the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

All this is right in line with hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and especially those hitting the USA:

Line graph showing the number of hurricanes that formed in the North Atlantic Ocean and the number that made landfall in the United States each year from 1878 to 2015. 

The above graph shows the number of hurricanes that formed in the North Atlantic Ocean each year from 1878 to 2015, along with the number that made landfall in the United States. The orange curve shows how the total count in the green curve can be adjusted to attempt to account for the lack of aircraft and satellite observations in early years. All three curves have been smoothed using a five-year average, plotted at the middle year. The most recent average (2011–2015) is plotted at 2013. Source: here.

Global tropical cyclone activity falling over past 25 years

Tropical storms as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) globally also shows no trend, and thus flat out contradict claims that high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere lead to higher cyclone activity:

Seasonal global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) from 1972 – 2015. Black dots are for the Northern Hemisphere only. Each dot represents a 24 month running sum. Source of chart: Atmo 336.

If anything, the trend for the past 25 years has been significantly downward. Overall this all tells us that cyclone activity is linked far more to ocean cycles than to trace greenhouse gases – and is so by one or two orders of magnitude.

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Expert Software Engineer Calls Level Of Fraud In Leaked US Gov Climate Report “Sickening”

By on 11. August 2017

Software engineering expert Tony Heller has put out a video blasting recent claims made in report by U.S. government officials.

In the video below Heller, who also operates the influential Real Climate Science site here, says that there is an “extremely high probability of fraud by government climate scientists” regarding the recently “exclusively obtained” report written by scientists from 13 U.S. government agencies. Heller in fact says:

The level of fraud in this report is really quite sickening.”

Heller says some of the details in the report are “wildly fraudulent” and claims “the amount of misinformation in this report is overwhelming.”

Heller demonstrates how the report’s authors manipulated their conclusions through the careful selection of dataset start dates, depending on what they were trying to show.

The expert software engineer and data analyst shows how heat records in fact have been decreasing over the past 100 years in the USA – contradicting U.S. government scientists’ claims. In fact extreme heat and extreme cold overall have been declining since the 1930s, as the following chart shows:

U.S. cold and heat extremes have been declining. Image cropped here.

As garbage as garbage science can get

Tony Heller then explains how the scientists made a huge mathematical mistake, one that is tantamount to the computer programming error of dividing by zero. That error, Heller says, horrendously distorted the chart the scientists used to show how the ratio of heat records to cold records was growing. The question that now arises is: Was this an honest mistake, or done intentionally with malicious intent to deceive the public? Heller called the results produced by the methodology “meaningless garbage“….”I don’t know how you can do science any worse than this garbage.”

U.S. hot days have been falling for 100 years

Another false point made by the report was the claim that the number of days with 90°F temperatures and higher was going to increase in the future “with very high confidence“. Yet Heller presents a chart showing that the number of hot days has in fact been trending significantly downward over the past century:

U.S. percentage of hot days have been declining! Image cropped here.

The U.S. government report also claims that temperatures have risen by 1.0°C since 1901. But that claim too is false, as Heller shows with the following chart:

U.S. average daily temperature has been declining! Image cropped here.

The fearless Heller says of the government scientists: “Their claim is completely fraudulent. The United States is not warming. It is actually cooling.”

Heller then shows a newspaper clipping from 1989 (8:00), where the NOAA itself stated that there had not been any warming over the past 100 years. This was once again confirmed by NASA’s James Hansen in 1999. So how can it be possibly be warming just 18 years later?

Heller explains that since 1989 NASA’s James Hansen and current NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt have put the historical data through a series of alterations in order to fabricate a warming trend.

Heller concludes that the latest, leaked government report is far from trustworthy:

Everything in this report is based on fake data, manipulated data, bad mathematics and general junk science.”

Heller suspects that the report was a purely politically motivated attempt to pressure President Donald Trump to change his position on the climate change issue.

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Leading Heat Transfer Physicists/Geologists Assert The Impact Of CO2 Emissions On Climate Is ‘Negligible’

By on 10. August 2017

Textbook Details Robust Planetary Theory

Explaining Climate Change Without CO2

Wiley Textbook Image Source

The increasingly corroborated atmospheric mass pressure (gravity) explanation for variances in planetary temperatures – which precludes a significant role for CO2 concentration changes – has now advanced from peer-reviewed scientific journals to university-level textbooks.

The “adiabatic theory” of the greenhouse effect (adiabatic: “the constant decline in temperature of an air parcel as it rises in the atmosphere due to pressure drop and gas expansion”) is capable of explaining the variances in temperatures on planets like Earth, Mars, and Venus using each planet’s atmospheric pressure gradient – and without reliance on the traditional greenhouse effect theory that assigns a governing role to CO2.

As a simplified example, Mars has an atmosphere made up of about 950,000 ppm (95%) CO2 compared to the Earth’s 400 ppm (0.04%), and yet Mars’ average surface temperature is about -75°C colder than Earth’s.  Venus also has an atmosphere with about 950,000 ppm (95%) CO2, but its surface is +447°C warmer than Earth’s.   In addition to each planet’s variable distance from the Sun, the difference in temperature for Mars, Venus, and Earth can be calculated by considering its atmospheric mass (pressure) gradient.  Mars’ atmosphere is 100 times thinner than Earth’s.  Venus’ atmosphere is 92 times heavier (pressurized) than Earth’s.  The CO2 concentration of each planet may therefore be insignificant in determining surface temperature relative to factors (a) distance from the Sun and (b) atmospheric density.

Sciencing.com

“In general, the weaker the gravitational pull of a planet, the thinner the atmosphere will be. A planet with weak gravity will tend to have less mass and allow more atmosphere to escape into space. Thus the thickness or thinness of the atmosphere depends upon the strength or weakness of gravity. For example, the gravity on Jupiter is 318 times greater than Earth, and thus Jupiter’s atmosphere is much thicker than Earth’s. Gravity gets weaker the further away it is from a planet, so the atmosphere will be thicker near the surface.”

The determinative role of atmospheric pressure in planetary temperatures has previously been asserted by Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin (Russian Academy of Sciences) and other scientists introducing the “adiabatic theory of greenhouse effect”.

Sorokhtin et al., 2007

“According to the adiabatic theory of greenhouse effect (see below), besides the Sun’s radiation, the main determining factors of the Earth’s climate are the Earth’s atmosphere pressure and its composition. The denser the atmosphere (i.e., the higher the atmospheric pressure), the warmer the climate. Thus, the high surface temperature at the ocean level during the Archaean time, at a low Sun’s luminosity, may only be a result of higher atmospheric pressure. The gradual decrease in the oceanic water temperature with a smooth increase of Sun’s luminosity may only be a result of a gradual decrease in the atmospheric pressure.”

Florides and Christodoulides (2009) followed up with a peer-reviewed scientific paper of their own that also affirmed the “adiabatic theory of the greenhouse effect” and its cogency in explaining planetary temperatures, as well as the “negligible” effect of CO2 concentration changes.

“The analysis indicates that the average surface temperature of the Earth is determined by the solar constant, the precession angle of the planet, the mass (pressure) of the atmosphere, and the specific heat of the atmospheric mixture of gases.”
“A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01–0.03 °C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO2. … If the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere increases from 0.035% [350 ppm] to its double value of 0.070% [700 ppm], the atmospheric pressure will increase slightly (by 0.00015 atm). Consequently the temperature at sea level will increase by about 0.01 °C and the increase in temperature at an altitude of 10 km will be less than 0.03 °C. These amounts are negligible compared to the natural temporal fluctuations of the global temperature.”

Adiabatic Theory: Textbook Science

Drs. John Robertson and George Chilingar, professors of geology and environmental (petroleum) engineering, have authored 12 textbooks, 70 books, and 575 scientific papers between them.  Both are verifiable experts in heat transfer physics.

Their latest joint effort, a 416-page university-level textbook published in June (2017), includes a section on the adiabatic theory that precludes a significant role for CO2 in determining planetary temperatures.  In fact, after explaining the details of the theory and its validation with respect to the atmospheric temperatures of Venus, Robertson and Chilingar conclude:

“The anthropogenic impact on global atmospheric temperatures is negligible, i.e., 5%.”
“From the above estimates, one can conclude that even significant releases of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere practically do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime.”

In the textbook, the authors explain the theory in meticulous detail (pgs. 197-204).  Below is a summary of their conclusions from page 204.

Image cropped from: Environmental Aspects of Oil and Gas Production, John O. Robertson, George V. Chilingar, ISBN: 978-1-119-11737-7, July 2017. Book source here.

Scientific Papers Supporting Adiabatic Theory

Nikolov and Zeller, 2017

“Our analysis revealed that GMATs [global mean annual temperatures] of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. … The down-welling LW radiation is not a global driver of surface warming as hypothesized for over 100 years but a product of the near-surface air temperature controlled by solar heating and atmospheric pressure … The hypothesis that a freely convective atmosphere could retain (trap) radiant heat due its opacity has remained undisputed since its introduction in the early 1800s even though it was based on a theoretical conjecture that has never been proven experimentally.”

Chemke et al., 2016

“Observations suggest that Earth’s early atmospheric mass differed from the present day. The effects of a different atmospheric mass on radiative forcing have been investigated in climate models of variable sophistication, but a mechanistic understanding of the thermodynamic component of the effect of atmospheric mass on early climate is missing. Using a 3D idealized global circulation model (GCM), we systematically examine the thermodynamic effect of atmospheric mass on near-surface temperature. We find that higher atmospheric mass tends to increase the near-surface temperature mostly due an increase in the heat capacity of the atmosphere, which decreases the net radiative cooling effect in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Additionally, the vertical advection of heat by eddies decreases with increasing atmospheric mass, resulting in further near-surface warming. As both net radiative cooling and vertical eddy heat fluxes are extratropical phenomena, higher atmospheric mass tends to flatten the meridional temperature gradient.”
“An increase in atmospheric mass causes an increase in near-surface temperatures and a decrease of the equator-pole near-surface temperature gradient. Warming is caused mostly by the increase in atmospheric heat capacity, which decrease the net radiative cooling of the atmosphere.”

Chilingar et al., 2014

“The quoted comparisons indicate that average temperature distribution in the planet’s troposphere is completely defined by the solar constant, atmospheric pressure (mass), heat capacity of its gas composition and the precession angle. The theoretical temperature on Venus surface turned out to be Ts = 735 K, and on Earth’s surface, 288 K. The empiric values are 735.3 and 288.2 K, respectively. This close fit cannot be accidental and presents the convincing evidence in favor of the adiabatic theory of heat transfer in a dense atmosphere.”

Jelbring, 2003

THE “GREENHOUSE EFFECT” AS A FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC MASS
“Here, using a different approach, it is shown that GE [the greenhouse effect] can be explained as mainly being a consequence of known physical laws describing the behaviour of ideal gases in a gravity field. A simplified model of Earth, along with a formal proof concerning the model atmosphere and evidence from real planetary atmospheres will help in reaching conclusions. The distinguishing premise is that the bulk part of a planetary GE [greenhouse effect] depends on its atmospheric surface mass density. Thus the GE can be exactly calculated for an ideal planetary model atmosphere.”

Miatello, 2012

“In an isolated global atmospheric system as that of Earth, in hydrostatic equilibrium in the cosmic vacuum, heat is transmitted only in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics, the thermal and conductive properties of different components, such as ocean waters, soils, and atmospheric gases, and the atmospheric adiabatic gradient. The same conditions apply to planets having huge atmospheric masses, such as Venus, Jupiter, and Saturn, whose surfaces and/or cores are heated only by a Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism, gravitational compression of gases, according to their mass/density, as well as the impedance of their opaque atmospheres to solar radiation. In the case of Earth’s atmosphere with relatively high rarefaction and transparency and an active water cycle, which does not exist on Venus, Saturn, or Jupiter, the main factors influencing heat transfer are irradiance related to solar cycles and the water cycle, including evaporation, rain, snow, and ice, that regulates alteration of the atmospheric gradient from dry to humid. Therefore, the so-called “greenhouse effect” and pseudo-mechanisms, such as “backradiation,” have no scientific basis and are contradicted by all laws of physics and thermodynamics, including calorimetry, yields of atmospheric gases’ thermodynamic cycles, entropy, heat flows to the Earth’s surface, wave mechanics, and the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics.”

Florides and Christodoulides, 2009

“As Sorokhtin et al. (2007) mention, until recently a sound theory using laws of physics for the greenhouse effect was lacking and all numerical calculations and predictions were based on intuitive models using numerous poorly defined parameters. In order to investigate the phenomenon they devised a model based on wellestablished relationships among physical fields describing the mass and heat transfer in the atmosphere. This model uses a general approach for obtaining analytical solutions for global problems and can be further refined to incorporate additional parameters and variables for examining local problems.”
“Their model was based on the observation that in the troposphere (the lower and denser layer of the atmosphere, with pressures greater than 0.2 atm) the heat transfer is mostly by convection and the temperature distribution is close to adiabatic. The reasoning for this is that the air masses expand and cool while rising and compress and heat while descending.”
“Basic formulae describe among others, the heat transfer in the atmosphere by radiation, the atmospheric pressure and air density change with elevation, the effect of the angle of the Earth’s precession and the adiabatic process. For the adiabatic process the formula considers the partial pressures and specific heats of the gases forming the atmosphere, an adiabatic constant and corrective coefficients for the heating caused by water condensation in the wet atmosphere and for the absorption of infrared radiation by the atmosphere.”
“The adiabatic constant and the heat coefficients are estimated using actual experimental data. This adiabatic model was verified, with a precision of 0.1%, by comparing the results obtained for the temperature distribution in the troposphere of the Earth with the standard model used worldwide for the calibration of the aircraft gauges and which is based on experimental data. The model was additionally verified with a precision of 0.5%–1.0% for elevations up to 40 km, by comparing the results with the measured temperature distribution in the dense troposphere of Venus consisting mainly of CO2.”

Gerlich and Tscheuschner, 2010

“In our falsification paper we have shown that the atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effects as taken-for-granted concepts in global climatology do not fit into the scientific framework of theoretical and applied physics. By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 degrees Celsius is a meaningless number calculated wrongly (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately (f) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical (e) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero the atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effects have been refuted within the frame of physics.   In other words, the greenhouse models are all based on simplistic pictures of radiative transfer and their obscure relation to thermodynamics, disregarding the other forms of heat transfer such as thermal conductivity, convection, latent heat exchange et cetera.”
“In the speculative discussion around the existence of an atmospheric natural greenhouse effect or the existence of an atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effect it is sometimes stated that the greenhouse effect could modify the temperature profile of the Earth’s atmosphere. This conjecture is related to another popular but incorrect idea communicated by some proponents of the global warming hypothesis, namely the hypothesis that the temperatures of the Venus are due to a greenhouse effect.”

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Latest Storm/Damage Data: Alarmists’ Predictions Have Near-Zero Accuracy…Dead Wrong

By on 9. August 2017

At Twitter hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach recently tweeted a couple of charts which are certainly worthy of mentioning again.

The first one helps to tell us why some people may think Atlantic hurricanes have become more frequent. Today the detection and monitoring technology allows constant, 100% coverage, and so every single storm gets picked up.

Years ago a storm lasting less than two days probably did not get acknowledged and thus went unnamed before disappearing completely. Today, as the chart shows, many short-lived disturbances get a name and thus forever have a place in the 2named storm” statistic.

Gore’s hurricane hype is all fraud

Next there are all the claims of rapidly increasing damage from hurricanes, like Al Gore often hypes up. Of course as population and property grow along coastal area, the net dollar amount in damages indeed grows. But when the damage gets normalized, the trend looks very different, as shown by the following chart:

Above we see no increase total economic damage. Things are not getting worse as con-man Mr. Gore likes to claim.

Next Climate Depot here brings us another chart from Prof. Roger Peilke Jr of the University of Colorado in Boulder. It shows global weather-related disaster losses as a proportion of GDP:

Well, look at that! The chart above clearly tells us losses as a percent of GDP have halved over the past 27 years! Not something you’d expect after listening to the end-of-world rantings of Al Gore and the climate alarmist media.

According to Professor Pielke Jr.

The world is presently in an era of unusually low weather disasters. This holds for the weather phenomena that have historically caused the most damage: tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes and drought. Given how weather events have become politicized in debates over climate change, some find this hard to believe…The US has seen a decrease of about 20% in both hurricane frequency and intensity at landfall since 1900…Data on floods, drought and tornadoes are similar in that they show little to no indication of becoming more severe or frequent…”

In fact the real damage so far inflicted by the (lack of) storms over the years has been to the climate alarmism and destruction industry itself.

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Distinguished Belgian Scientist, Leading European Critic Of Climate Alarmism, Dies Suddenly

By on 8. August 2017

Very sad news. One of Europe’s most vocal critics of the climate alarmism movement, lecturer and chemist Prof. Istvan Marko, recently passed away on July 31, 2017.

Not only was Prof. Markó a distinguished scientist and researcher, but also a noted critic of authoritarian governments, climate alarmism and a fighter for human liberty.

Born in Hungary in 1956, his parents fled communist oppression soon after his birth.

Marko

Prof. Istvan Markó , Professor of Organic Chemistry, Université Catholique de Louvain; 1956 – 2017. Photo: Facebook.

Markó was often a frequent guest on French-language television and radio on topics concerning climate policy and was featured at NoTricksZone.com on several occasions, for example here, here and here. His death was unexpected, a shock, and deeply saddening. He was also featured at Climate Depot.

The Université Catholique de Louvain professor and researcher died prematurely of complications from surgery on July 31. He was only 61 years old.

Last year he was among the signatories to an open letter disputing alarmist claims publicly made by 377 members of the National Academy of Sciences to draw attention to the “serious risks of climate change”. More here.

IPCC theories “sordid”, “failed”

Prof. Markó was an especially outspoken and harsh critic of alarmist climate science and the IPCC. In March 2016 he responded to an article posted by NTZ guest author and weekly contributor Kenneth Richard, writing that observations made by many scientists once again “contradict the sordid theories of the IPCC” and that atmospheric CO2 concentrations “absolutely do not correlate with the fluctuations of the levels of the oceans and the movements of advances and withdrawals of glaciers“.

He wrote that the IPCC science had “failed again”.

He also blasted the COP21 Paris Climate Accord (which President Donald Trump has since thankfully rejected). Markó called the COP21 agreement “a resounding failure” and “grand illusions” based on “delirium“.

“Wishful thinking” by rich countries

In an English-language interview he blasted COP 21, claiming that it essentially resulted in nothing. He commented:

The result of COP 21 is no result …because there is nothing binding in this particular treaty.”

Markó added the only thing that motivates CO2 reductions is the lack of shame by officials:

To my knowledge no politician knows what shame is at all. They are totally not subject to shame.”

In an interview with the Belgian online Le Peuple here in December, 2015, Markó called the COP21 agreement an “obvious failure” because nothing was binding and that it was merely rich countries engaging in “wishful thinking“.

On the 2°C target, Markó said it had “strictly no physical or scientific basis”, was “nothing serious“ and was a randomly picked number by Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which Markó called “the green lobby in Germany” and “a voice of the Church of climate alarmism”.

“A prince among men”

Fellow Belgian skeptics wrote in an e-mail to NTZ that Prof. Markó was “a great man” and one of the “leading spirits” among the skeptic side of the debate. “István was a prince among man, a true scientist.”

A true inspiration

Europe and the world has lost an important foot soldier in the fight for scientific integrity and human freedom, and he will continue to inspire us to never relent. According to sources, Istvan Markó’s body will be cremated today.

 

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Since 1993, Greenland’s Ice Sheet Melt Has Added Just 0.39 Of A Centimeter To Global Sea Levels

By on 7. August 2017

Exposing ‘Staggering’ Ice Sheet Melt Deceptions

In recent months, two new papers published in The Cryosphere have provided a condensed summary of the ice-melt and sea-level-rise consequences of global warming for the Arctic region.

1.  Between 1900 and 2010, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has melted so extensively and so rapidly that the GIS ice-melt contribution to global sea level rise has amounted to 1.5 centimeters for the entire 110-year period.   One-and-a-half centimeters.  That’s 0.59 of an inch!

2. It gets worse.  Between 1993 and 2010, the contribution to global sea level rise has been a disturbing 0.39 of a centimeter.  Almost 4/10ths of a centimeter.  That’s 0.15 of an inch!

Leeson et al, 2017

“Melt water from the Greenland ice sheet contributed 1.7–6.12 mm [median 3.9 mm, or 0.39 of a centimeter] to global sea level between 1993 and 2010“

Fettweis et al ., 2017

“SMB [surface mass balance, Greenland Ice Sheet] during the 1920–1930 warm period over Greenland was comparable to the SMB of the 2000s, due to both higher melt and lower precipitation than normal.”

“Finally, with respect to the 1961–1990 period, the integrated contribution of the GrIS SMB [Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance] anomalies over 1900–2010 is a sea level rise of about 15 ± 5 mm [1.5 centimeters], with a null contribution from the 1940s to the 2000s“

Breakdown: 1900-2010 GIS Sea Level Rise Contribution

1920s-1930s: GIS contribution to sea level rise: 1.1 cm

1993-2010: GIS contribution to sea level rise: 0.39 cm

1940s-2000s: “a null contribution” [to sea level rise]

Washington Post Peddles Alarmism With Deceptive ‘Trillion Tons’ Of Lost Ice Pronouncements

It’s scary to learn that the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost a “staggering” 9 trillion tons of ice since 1900.

It’s not scary to learn that 9 trillion tons of ice losses actually amounts to less than 1 inch (0.6 of an inch, or 1.5 centimeters) of sea level rise contribution from Greenland meltwater since 1900.

So what does a world-renown news organization like the Washington Post do with this contextually-weighted scientific information?   Of course, like most other media organizations in the modern era,  the Post attempts to frighten the public with disturbing trillions of tons of lost ice exclamations without emphasizing the modest and nearly imperceptible sea level impact such “staggering” ice losses produce.

In December, 2015, the Post‘s Chris Mooney summarized “Greenland’s massive, centennial contribution to sea level rise”.

Washington Post  (December, 2015)

It is apparent from reading the article that Mooney is either (a) unaware that less than 1 inch of long-term sea level impact is not “massive”, and therefore using that descriptor in conjunction with  trillions-of-tons of ice loss can be misleading, or (b) he is aware that less than 1 inch of sea level impact in 110 years is not especially alarming, so he buries this inconvenient detail in the body of the article and instead he focuses on employing terms like “staggering” and “massive” and “trillions” and “disturbing” and “alarming” in an effort to conceal.

It would appear that (b) is more likely.

Notice above how Mooney cursorily acknowledges that 1 inch of global-scale sea level rise from 9 trillion tons of melted GIS ice “may not sound like much”.  But then, to recover, he misleadingly pivots to hypothetical scenarios, equating what one inch of sea level rise would do if this water equivalent from across the world ocean was only dumped on the United States’ interstate highway system.  (How does fantasy writing like this make it into a serious science article?)

And then, to pile on another thought experiment, Mooney adds the obligatory “if the entire ice sheet were to melt” conjuring so he can mention that “20 feet of sea level rise” is what’s at stake here.

One inch in 110 years isn’t enough to garner attention, but 98 feet (times 63) of submerged U.S. roads and global coastal areas is quite the scary scenario.

The Washington Post employed this same misleading and diversionary strategy about 8 months later, again relying on the “9 trillion tons of ice” lost study to scare readers.

Washington Post (July, 2016)

If Misleading Readers Wasn’t Allowed, What Would The ‘Honest’ Headlines Look Like?

If news organizations weren’t allowed to mislead readers about climate science, what would the headlines say?

With regard to the long-term (and recent) ice melt records for the Greenland Ice Sheet, a non-deceptive, non-misleading headline might look something like this.

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Germany’s Failure To Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Set To Extend To 9 Years!

By on 6. August 2017

Germany’s online Der Spiegel here reports that Germany once again will fail to reduce its CO2 emissions this year, 2017.

This is a profound embarrassment for Germany, a country that has been a staunch preacher of climate protection and one of the world’s most vocal critics of President Donald Trump’s decision to back out of the Paris Climate Accord.

Rise of 5 million tonnes

According to the leftist Spiegel, greenhouse gas emissions in Germany rose by 5 million CO2 equivalent tonnes in the first half of 2017, hitting 428 million tonnes. That’s a jump of 1.2%. Experts say that the rise is likely due to increased petroleum consumption. According to Spiegel, diesel fuel sales are up 6.5 percent.

Part of the increased petroleum probably is due to low fuel prices, and the unusually colder than normal weather in January and April. Germany is failing horribly to reach its emissions targets, as the following chart shows:

German equivalent Co2 emissions fell from 1,251 million tonnes in 1990 to 906 million tonnes in 2016. However, there has not been reductions in 8 years. Source: UBA

And if this year’s trend keeps up, it’ll mean that Germany’s emissions will have remained flat for 9 consecutive years. A decade of failure. It will also mean that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions will rise for a third consecutive year. More here.

Germany’s anti-diesel movement will end up raising CO2 emissions

The bad news for the climate-protection-preaching Germany is that greenhouse gas emissions reductions are likely going to get far tougher, as once again the country’s leaders are managing to shoot themselves in the foot in the comedy that has become the Energiewende.

One of the country’s leading Green Party politicians, Winfried Kretschmann, has just warned that the current movement to ban the diesel engine will have serious climate target consequences, reports the online Die Welt. As the publicity against the diesel engine cranks up, people will opt for the gasoline-powered cars instead. The problem here is that diesel engines get far better fuel mileage than the Otto engines, and so German consumers will only end up spewing more CO2 in the atmosphere.

Also Germany’s flood of immigrants, who have other worries on their minds, will add to make the German targets an even bigger fairy tale.

 

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Germany’s DWD Gets Caught (Again) Warming Its ‘Preliminary’ Monthly Climate Reports

By on 5. August 2017

Here’s more from Schneefan at his climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here where he reports on mischief by Germany’s DWD national weather service.

The now climate-activist DWD has developed a habit over the past years of issuing warmed up “preliminary” monthly summary reports to describe the month’s weather.

Usually these reports get issued 2 or 3 days before the end of the month, and so Germany’s mean temperature for the month is an estimated value, and later gets revised after the final data come in. So what better opportunity for activists to fudge the preliminary figures on the warm side, and feed the press with them? Later of course the temperature results get quietly revised downward.

One especially egregious example is the DWD’s press release for the preliminary summary of the April 2017 weather. In it they write (emphasis added):

The high pressure conditions of March continued at the start of April, with nearly all areas of Germany enjoying very warm and dry weather. Then, moister and increasingly cold air from the north arrived for the second third of the month. The middle of the month and Easter brought slight to moderate frost and, in some cases, snow even in lowland areas. Overall, temperatures and sunshine duration in the middle of the month were within the normal range.”

In the press release the last 10 days of April, which were bitterly cold, get left out. Schneefan writes that the last ten days of April “were totally left out and they reported on the first 20 days, even though only the last three days of data were missing“.

The media of course act accordingly, and report of warm, balmy conditions. This is how communication of science gets (intentionally?) distorted by sloppy, irresponsible and warming-obsessed officials.

In the DWD press release you have to read down a ways to find out that the mean temperature for April, 2017, in Germany reportedly ended up being 0.8°C below the 1981-2010 mean value, making it the coldest in 16 years.

And lo and behold, later that figure was indeed revised downward: Schneefan writes:

By the way: April 2017 in Germany in contradiction to the – as always hasty and mostly false –  DWD press release of April 28, 2017 a mean temperature of only 7.4°C instead of the given 7.5°C.”

Europe springtime ice box

Not only Germany was icy, but many other countries in Europe as well. The following chart shows the temperature anomalies for the 2nd half of April (mostly ignored by the DWD’s April 28 preliminary report).

Schneefan also reminds that January 2017 in Germany was among the coldest in 20 years, coming in 2.7°C below the 1981-2010 mean.

Also October and November 2016 came is colder than the mean, recording an anomaly of -0.7° and -0.6°C respectively, according to the data from the DWD.

Overall spring has not been arriving earlier in Germany and Central Europe, as many like to have us believe. March mean data has been trending slightly downward in Germany over the past 30 years:

Germany’s comprehensive 2000 stations scattered across the country have been showing no warming over the past decades.

 

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Polar Stability: Antarctic Cold Deepens, Arctic Refuses To Melt Faster In June/July 2017

By on 4. August 2017

Schneefan at his excellent German climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here reports that Arctic sea ice has grown in mass recently, defying the doomsday scenarios that a re-hyperventilating Al Gore has been hawking lately.

Schneefan writes that Arctic sea ice volume at the start of August at about the mean of the 2004 – 2013 values (see black line below in chart).

Source: http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/

The current ice volume is well above that seen in the previous two years, 2015 and 2016. Greenland surface mass balance also shows significantly more snow and ice this year.

Arctic summer melt slows down

Arctic sea ice area at the end of July 2017 showed an unusual levelling off (curve correction?), as indicated by the red curve inside the black circle in the following chart and thus shows a far less likelihood of setting a new low, which a number of experts had been speculating earlier this year.

Source: arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

Another point is central Arctic sea ice extent, which in 2017 was at the highest July level in 2017 seen in the past 5 years, Schneefan points out:

Source: nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

After a mild winter, Arctic temperatures north of 80°N latitude have been below normal since April, according to data and he chart by by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) below.

With this development in mind, Schneefan writes that Arctic sea ice extent is virtually unchanged since 2006/2007, and:

There is nothing to the almost ice-free Arctic projections by 2016 at the latest and the ridiculous prognoses made by Al Gore and Peter Wadhams!”

2-m surface temperature satellite data of Antarctica in the following chart showed a sub-cooled South Pole in July, 2017 (left) and also in June 2017 (right):

South polar temperature anomaly for July (left) and June (right) 2017 with respect to the WMO 1981-2010 mean. The circle indicates the area of the Larsen C Ice Shelf where a large chunk of ice broke off due to calving recently. Source: www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php.

 

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New Paper: Investigative Journalism Professor Slams Today’s ‘Fake News’ Climate Science Reporting

By on 3. August 2017

Professor: Climate Journalism Awash In

‘Emotional Propaganda’, ‘Mythological Constructs’

Too Much Reliance On Models, ‘Consensus’

Profile Source, Image Source

A University of Wollongong (Australia) investigative journalism professor with a research interest in ecological science and exposing environmental fraud has just published a scathing indictment of the climate science journalism industry in the academic journal Asia Pacific Media Educator.

Pulling no punches, Dr. David Blackall lambastes the modern climate science journalism practice of relying more on theoretical models, “expert” predictions, and authoritative “consensus” than on empirical observation and real-world physical measurements in reporting stories on global warming.

Instead of evaluating alarming claims of impending climate catastrophe with reasonable skepticism and critical review, today’s journalists not only reflexively accept the planetary meltdown narratives they promulgate, they simultaneously conceal the growing body of scientific evidence that may ameliorate the scariness of the modern climate narrative.

Journalists Refuse To Report Non-Alarmist Scientific Evidence

(1) Multiple papers have been published within the last year (Turner et al., 2016, Oliva et al., 2017) indicating that the rapid warming trend observed during the late 20th century for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has now reversed, and the AP has been dramatically cooling (-0.47 °C per decade) and glaciers have stopped receding in the region since 1999.   This cooling trend has not been reported by mainstream media outlets.

(2) Earlier this year, a paper (Fettweis et al ., 2017, with a review available here) was published in The Cryosphere indicating that the Greenland Ice Sheet melt had (a) contributed just 1.5 cm (0.6 of an inch) to sea levels between 1900 and 2010; (b) there was no net ice sheet loss during the 60 years between 1940 and 2000 despite explosive growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions during that period; and (c) net ice sheet losses were similar to today during the 1930s, when CO2 concentrations were about 100 ppm lower.  This long-term Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance in an era of “alarming” warmth has not been reported by mainstream media outlets.

(3) In the 2007 IPCC report, it was claimed that glaciers in the Himalayas were melting so rapidly that the “likelihood is very high” that they would “disappear” by the year 2035.   And yet many published scientific papers have shown (here, here, here, here, here, here, and here) that the Himalayan region has not only not been warming in recent decades, but 88% of the glaciers in the region are either stable or advancing, with a net change of just 0.2% since 2000 (Bahuguna et al., 2014, Bolch et al., 2016, Holzer et al., 2015, Zhang et al., 2016).

(4) About a year ago, a NoTricksZone review of 8 recently published scientific papers revealed (a) land area across the world is expanding more rapidly than sea levels are rising; (b) climate change (warming) is not the primary determinant of sea level changes (coastal erosion and accretion, tectonic uplift and subsidence are more influential); (c) globally, sea levels are only rising by about 1 mm per year according to tide gauges; and (d) an anthropogenic signal could not be detected in regional sea level rise trends.  Of course, no mainstream media outlet publicized these scientific findings.  They don’t support the alarmist narrative.

(5) There were 133 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in 2016 linking solar forcing to climate changes.  There have already been 84 Sun-Climate papers published thus far in 2017.   More and more solar scientists are predicting a Grand Solar Minimum and concomitant global cooling in the coming decades.  Journalists have not been inclined to report on these developments in solar science.  The Sun-Climate link does not fit with narrative that humans are the predominant cause of climate changes.

(6) Finally, a collection of over 300 graphs of reconstructed historical (Holocene) temperatures has been made available in recent months. These graphs, taken from hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers, reveal that modern warming trends are neither unusual or unprecedented, and they do not even fall outside the range of natural (pre-anthropogenic influence) variability.   And yet what do mainstream journalists report in their headlines on a routine basis?   That today’s temperature changes are “shocking”, “stunning” and “unprecedented”.

Would it be so difficult for journalists to actually seek scientific verification of their claims before publishing?

Or is the pursuit of real-world scientific confirmation too much to expect from journalists and media sources bent on advancing an agenda in this “Post Truth World”?

‘Forlorn’ Polar Bears An Example of  ‘Emotional Propaganda’, ‘Fake News’ Reporting

“One particularly emotive story line attached to this topic is the so-called pending extinction of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population. In recent times, there have been a number of claims that polar bears are threatened with extinction because global warming was melting their habitat. Yet the scientific evidence suggests to the contrary: population counts conducted between 2007 and 2017 suggest that bear numbers are on the increase. This has led Crockford (2017a) to label such claims as emotional propaganda. In the last decade, cherrypicked and unverified photographic material, ‘emotional’ videos, even animation, then used in news, of forlorn bears floating on ice was the practice (Crockford, 2016; Rode, 2014). This is a good example of ‘fake news’.”

Climate Models Not Confirmed, Harmonious Pre-Industrial Climate A ‘Mythical Construct’

“Scientific uncertainty arises from ‘simulations’ of climate because computer models are failing to match the actual climate. This means that computer models are unreliable in making predictions. Published in the eminent journal Nature (Ma, et. al., 2017), ‘Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by Cretaceous geological evidence’, provides excellent stimulus material for student news writing. The paper discusses the severe wobbles in planetary orbits, and these affect climate. The wobbles are reflected in geological records and show that the theoretical climate models are not rigorously confirmed by these radioisotopically calibrated and anchored geological data sets. Yet popular discourse presents Earth as harmonious: temperatures, sea levels and orbital patterns all naturally balanced until global warming affects them, a mythical construct. Instead, the reality is natural variability, the interactions of which are yet to be measured or discovered (Berger, 2013).”

A Non-Warming Climate Doesn’t Fit The Narrative – So It’s Unreported, Manipulated

“Contrary to news media reports, some glaciers throughout the world (Norway [Chinn et al., 2005] and New Zealand [Purdie et al., 2008]) are growing, while others shrink (Paul et al., 2007). New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research and Victoria University found that ‘regional cooling’ over 25 years had correlated with growing glaciers (Mackintosh et al., 2017).”
“Sea levels too have not been obeying the ‘grand transnational narrative’ of catastrophic global warming. Sea levels around Australia 2011–2012 were measured with the most significant drops in sea levels since measurements began. This phenomenon was due to rainfall over Central Australia, which filled vast inland lakes. It was not predicted in the models, nor was it reported in the news. The 2015–2016 El-Niño, a natural phenomenon, drove sea levels around Indonesia to low levels such that coral reefs were bleaching. The echo chamber of news repeatedly fails to report such phenomena and yet many studies continue to contradict mainstream news discourse.”

Scientific Uncertainty Replaced By ‘Consensus’ (Post-Normal) Science, Model ‘Validation’

“Scientists test, measure, observe and retest, and they must be able to verify and repeat results (Errington et al., 2014). Uncertainty is always present (van Der Sluijs, 2005), but when uncertainty is replaced by ‘consensus’ (post-normal science), a culture of gatekeeping ensues (Lindzen, 2009). Post-normal science is said to be appropriate when ‘traditional methodologies are ineffective. In those circumstances, the quality assurance of scientific inputs to the policy process requires an ‘extended peer community’, consisting of all those with a stake in the dialogue on the issue’ (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993). Then, and dangerously, dissenters are silenced so that chosen and ‘necessary’ discourses arrive in journals, conferences and boardrooms. In such a climate, it is difficult for the assertion to be made that there might be other sources, than a nontoxic greenhouse gas called carbon dioxide (CO2), that could be responsible for ‘climate disruption’. A healthy scientific process would allow such a proposition.”
“Journalism conveys a ‘professional authority’—touting its discourse as ‘fact checked’, within ‘editorial consensus’—its validation process. However, ‘validation’ in climate science means something completely different—a model is validated, ‘acceptable for its intended use’, because it meets specified computer performance requirements (Rykiel, 1996).”

Correcting Climate Journalism’s ‘False Narratives’: Offer Public Alternative Perspectives

‘An online survey revealed similarity between climate change deniers and believers in terms of preference for climate change news sources and rating of reliability of authorities. It was also discovered that both groups do not believe in conspiracy theories. Thus the results show that participants on both sides in the discussion on climate change are similar, rational, and are basing their judgments by using similar types of sources.’ (Grabbe, 2015)
“As there is uncertainty with greenhouse gas theory, students should be given alternative perspectives to help find ways to publish stories that question, challenge and enlighten. With technological change in the traditional newsroom, which brings ‘heightened accountability’ (Bivens, 2008), and instantaneous research capability, there are plenty of opportunities to correct false narratives.”

An Alternative Perspective Example: Clouds As Climate Control Mechanism

“One avenue is to suggest the alternative narrative: clouds are crucial in climatic control, yet their role and production is not thoroughly understood. Clouds control terrestrial and ocean surface temperatures and this has been known for decades—in agronomy, geography and meteorology.  Could the great environmental catastrophe instead involve clouds and the water cycle?”

20+ New Papers Affirm The Failures Of Climate Modeling

Hedemann et al., 2017  (full paper)

“During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 ◦C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble-mean projection—a gap two to four times the observed trend. The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”

Power et al., 2017

“All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values.”

Zhou and Wang, 2017

“Land surface air temperature (Ta) is one of the fundamental variables in weather and climatic observations, modeling, and applications. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has remained rather steady and has even decreased in the central and eastern Pacific since 1998. This cooling trend is referred to as the global ‘warming hiatus’“

Xie et al., 2017

“As the recent global warming hiatus has attracted worldwide attention, we examined the robustness of the warming hiatus in China and the related dynamical mechanisms in this study. Based on the results confirmed by the multiple data and trend analysis methods, we found that the annual mean temperature in China had a cooling trend during the recent global warming hiatus period, which suggested a robust warming hiatus in China.”

Xian and Fu, 2017

“Despite continually increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas, there has been a hiatus in rising global temperatures during the 21st century.”

Liu and Zhou, 2017

“[C]limate models designed to represent the physics and dynamics of the climate system project that GMST [global mean surface temperature] continued to rise in the early 2000s. Dominant mechanisms proposed to understand the hiatus included the internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake and transport; however, the differences in the atmospheric footprint of recent warming slowdown remains unclear in terms of the dynamical and physical processes.”

Rosenblum and Eisenman, 2017

“Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. … [T]he models are not consistent with the observations.”

Zanchettin, 2017

“[U]ncertainties and gaps of knowledge in the characterization of forced decadal climate responses remain large, and only a few studies have systematically tackled the implication of these forcing agents for decadal predictability and prediction. For all forcing agents, major limitations in understanding arise from incompleteness and shortness of the instrumental observations concerning the forcing as well as the climate response. Further issues concern the deficient representation of key processes in climate models and limitations inherent to reconstructed evidence.”

Kravtsov, 2017

“[S]tate-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited.”

Zhang et al., 2017

“Climate models, including typical regional climate models, do not directly simulate all extreme rainfall producing processes, such as convection.”

Zuidema et al., 2017

“The ‘double ITCZ’ error is further implicated in the simulated Hadley circulation, seasonal cycle and winds on the equator, and equatorial modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, casting doubt on the ability to model and predict both regional and global climate. … OAFlux allows for more ocean warming than is observed, an error that implies the CMIP5 model net flux biases are even larger, by at least 10 W m−2 …  Mean CMIP5 net CRE biases are very large, up to 40 W m−2, relative to CERES values. … The CMIP5 models generally continue to underestimate subtropical stratocumulus cloud cover relative to observations“

Ahlström et al., 2017

“Our results suggest that climate biases could be responsible for a considerable fraction of the large uncertainties in ESM [Earth system models] simulations of land carbon fluxes and pools, amounting to about 40% of the range reported for ESMs. We conclude that climate bias-induced uncertainties must be decreased to make accurate coupled atmosphere-carbon cycle projections.”

Zhou et al., 2017

“The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO [Asian-Pacific Oscillation]-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere.” [25 of 30 climate models cannot capture the APO features comprehensively.]

Comiso et al., 2017

“The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. … [T]he trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature [cooling]. …  [T]he ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.”

Stenni et al., 2017

“A recent effort to characterize Antarctic and sub-Antarctic climate variability during the last 200 years also concluded that most of the trends observed since satellite climate monitoring began in 1979 CE cannot yet be distinguished from natural (unforced) climate variability (Jones et al., 2016), and are of the opposite sign [cooling] to those produced by most forced climate model simulations over the same post-1979 CE interval. …  [L]ack of confidence in climate model skill for the Antarctic region (Flato et al., 2013). … [N]o continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”

Büntgen et al., 2017

“Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate pre-industrial temperature changes. … [W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.”

Schroeter et al., 2017

“Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by approximately 1.5 % per decade since satellite observations began in 1979 (Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2012; Turner et al., 2015). [M]odels in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit decreasing sea ice trends in all months (Turner et al., 2013a). The reasons for the disparity between observed and modelled trends are not yet well understood (Bindoff et al., 2013; Hobbs et al., 2016).”

Stouffer et al., 2017

“There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. These biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.”

Barcikowska et al., 2017

“How global temperature will evolve over the next decade or so remains unclear (Knutson et al. 2016), although the most recent warming hiatus, observed in surface temperature records over the period 1998–2014, has challenged the scientific community in terms of consistency of models versus observations and in the attribution of the phenomena (Kosaka and Xie 2013; England et al. 2014; McGregor et al. 2014; Fyfe et al. 2012).”

Hope et al., 2017

“Comparison of the observed rise in GMST [global mean surface temperature] over the past 32 years with GCM output reveals these models tend to warm too quickly, on average by about a factor of two. Most GCMs [general circulation models] likely represent climate feedback in a manner that amplifies the radiative forcing of climate due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) too strongly.”

Crockford, 2017

“Data collected between 2007 and 2015 reveal that polar bear numbers have not declined as predicted and no subpopulation has been extirpated. … [T]he hypothesis that repeated summer sea ice levels of below 5 mkm2 will cause significant population declines in polar bears is rejected. This result indicates that the ESA and IUCN judgments to list polar bears as threatened based on future risks of habitat loss were hasty generalizations that were scientifically unfounded, which suggests that similar predictions for Arctic seals and walrus may be likewise flawed, while the lack of a demonstrable ‘sea ice decline = population decline’ relationship for polar bears invalidates updated survival model outputs that predict catastrophic population declines should the Arctic become ice-free in summer.”

McKinley et al., 2017

“The current inability to accurately quantify the mean CO2 sink regionally or locally also suggests that present-day observational constraints are inadequate to support a detailed, quantitative, and mechanistic understanding of how the ocean carbon sink works and how it is responding to intensifying climate change. This lack of mechanistic understanding implies that our ability to model (Roy et al. 2011, Ciais et al. 2013, Frolicher et al. 2015, Randerson et al. ¨ 2015), and thus to project the future ocean carbon sink, including feedbacks caused by warming and other climate change, is seriously limited. … [I]t is not yet possible to directly confirm from surface observations that long-term growth in the oceanic sink is occurring. … [T]his CESM-LE analysis further illustrates that variability in CO2 flux is large and sufficient to prevent detection of anthropogenic trends in ocean carbon uptake on decadal timescales.”

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