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Japanese Scientist Concludes IPCC Is Using "Erroneous" Parameters And Climate Sensitivities

Japanese Scientist Concludes IPCC Is Using “Erroneous” Parameters And Climate Sensitivities

By on 24. July 2024

History of the AGW narrative of the IPCC

Kyoji Kimoto, kyoji@mirane.co.jp
Independent climate researcher

Manabe’s model studies debunked by Newell (1979)

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scare was created in part by Japanese scientist Syukuro Manabe using a one dimensional radiative-convective model (1DRCM) having no ocean (1964/1967). He obtained a no-feedback climate sensitivity of 1.3°C for doubling of CO2 using the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5°C/km and a radiative forcing of 4(W/m2) at the tropopause, which was further enlarged to 2.4°C with a water vapor feedback.

Eminent meteorologist R. Newell from MIT criticized Manabe’s model lacking in ocean cooling. He obtained a No-feedback climate sensitivity of 0.03°C for a doubling of CO2 with a thermal inertia of 30 (W/m2) per 1°C for the surface waters of the ocean using a surface radiative forcing of 1(W/m2) to incorporate the IR spectra overlap between CO2 and water vapor.

Syukuro Manabe

The department of Energy & Dr. R. Cess, however, killed Newell’s ideas to promote nuclear reactors in a difficult time due to the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979.

Manabe continued his model studies to enlarge climate sensitivity (CS) for a doubling of CO2 with introducing various feed backs (FBs) as follows, which is the theoretical basis of IPCC’s AGW narrative.

Fig. 1 History of the CS for 2xCO2 with model studies by Manabe & IPCC

Cess’s erroneous calculation of the Planck feedback parameter

Cess (1976, 1989) expressed the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) with equation (1) based on the old energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig. 2.

He obtained a Planck feedback parameter0 of -3.3(W/m2)/C with equation (2), giving a No-feedback CS of 1.2°C using a radiative forcing of 4W/m2 for a doubling of CO2 at the tropopause as follows:

Cess’s Planck feedback parameter is used in all GCMs for the IPCC ARs with a slight decrease of the radiative forcing from 4 (W/m2) to 3.7 (W/m2) for a doubling of CO2 by IPCC TAR (2000).

  Fig. 3 Feedback parameters of 14 GCMs for the IPCC AR4 by Soden (2006)

Cess’s equation (1) is physically wrong

Cess did not know the atmospheric window because he was caught by the old energy budget of the earth (see Fig.2).

The OLR is expressed by equation (5) based on a modern energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig.4

OLR= Fu (Tu) (83%) + Fw (Ts) (17%)                                             (5)

Equation (5) means the upper troposphere temperature Tu is increased as much as ~1°C with CO2 doubling instead of the surface temperature Ts.

 

Comparison of no-feedback climate sensitivities

The following list shows the no-feedback climate sensitivities for a doubling of CO2 in the literature:

  • Ramanathan (1979) 0.2°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
  • Newell (1979) 0.03°C based on the ocean thermal inertia of 30 (W/m2)/C
  • Idso (1980) less than 0.26°C based on the natural experiments
  • Ramanathan (1981) 0.17°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
  • Idso (1998) 0.1°C based on the 10 natural experiments
  • Kimoto (2015) 0.15°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
  • Manabe (1964/1967) 1.3°C based on the 1DRCM having no ocean
  • Cess (1976) 1.2°C based on a calculation with a mathematical error
  • Hansen (1981) 1.2°C based on Manabe’s 1DRCM
  • Schlesinger (1986) 1.3°C based on Manabe’s 1DRCM
  • Schlesinger (1986) 1.2°C with a trick concealing Cess’s mathematical error

Conclusion

All green policy is nonsense because it depends on IPCC’s claim that the surface temperature Ts is increased as much as 3°C for CO2 doubling utilizing an erroneous Plank feedback parameter0 of -3.21(W/m2)/C from Cess’s mathematical error.

The Paris climate agreement reads as follows: “To keep the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limit the increase to 1.5°C.”

This is based on IPCC’s erroneous climate sensitivity of 3°C for doubling of CO2 discussed above. Therefore the Paris climate agreement is nonsense, though it governs the world politics now.

(References)

Cess, R.D., An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1976, 33, 1831-1843.

Cess, R.D., Potter, G.L., Blanchet, J.P., Boer, G.J., Ghan, S.J., Kiehl, J.T., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., Mitchell, J.F.B., Morcrette, J.J., Randall, D.A., Riches, M.R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M., Wetherald, R.T. and Yagai, I., Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models, Science, 1989, 245, 513-516.

Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science 1981, 213, 957-966.

Idso, S. B., The climatological significance of a doubling of Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Science 1980, 207,1462-1463.

Idso, S. B., CO2-induced global warming: a sceptic’s view of potential climate change,

Climate Research,1998, Vol.10, 69-82.

Kimoto, K., On the confusion of Planck feedback parameters, Energy & Environment, 2009, Vol.7, 1057-1066.

Kimoto, K., Will coal save Japan and the world?, Energy & Environment, 2015, 26, 1055~1067.

Manabe, S. and Strickler, R.F., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1964, 21, 361~385.

Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity,  J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1967, 24, 241-259.

Manabe, S and Wetherald, R.T., The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1975, 32, 3~15.

Newell, R.E. and Dopplick, T.G., Questions concerning the possible influence of anthropogenic CO2 on atmospheric temperature, J. Applied Meteorology, 1979, 18, 822-825.

Ramanathan, V., et al., J. Geophysical Research, 84, 4949-4958 (1979)

Ramanathan, V., The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the CO2 climate problem, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1981, 38, 918-930.

Ramanathan, V., The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research, J. Geophysical Research,1987, 92, 4075-4095.

Schlesinger, M.E., Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2, Climate Dynamics, 1986, 1, 35-51.

Soden, B.J. and Held, I.M., An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 2006, 19, 3354-3360.





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New Study: Central Europe Was ‘2-5°C Warmer Than Present’ Throughout Most Of The Holocene

By on 22. July 2024

There were millennia during the past glacial (when CO2 levels were under 200 ppm) that were as warm or warmer than today.

Four central Europe reconstructions, using collected evidence from disparate biomarkers, indicate there were periods (for example, 54,000 to 51,000 years ago, the Bølling–Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago) during the last glacial when temperatures were as warmer than (or similar to) today (Zander et al., 2024).

Temperatures throughout the Holocene (8,000 to 4,000 years ago), when CO2 hovered around 265 ppm, were 3.5°C (and up to 5°C) warmer than today. Modern temperatures are among the coldest of the last 10,000 years.

Image Source: Zander et al., 2024

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New German Study Shocks: “Significant Positive Correlation Between Excess Mortality, COVID 19 Vaccinations

By on 21. July 2024

100,000 excess German deaths in 2 years…suggests link to COVID vaccines

To me, it seems a lot of people in Germany have been reporting sick this summer due to a colds and grippe. Normally the flu season starts in the fall. Something has changed.

Moreover, there have been lots of reports out there (mostly gone uncovered by the media) of mysterious excess mortality occurring in many countries. Germany as well has been hit by excess mortality.

Now a new preprint paper by Christof Kuhbandner of the University of Regensberg and Matthias Reitzner of the University of Osnabrück looked at the influence of COVID 19 on mortality in the 16 German states.

The paper found over 100,000 excess deaths occurring in 2021 and 2022. Recall the vaccine was introduced in early 2021.

Source: Differential Increases in_Excess Mortality in the German Federal States During the_COVID-19 Pandemic

In the paper’s conclusion, the authors found a “significant positive correlation between the increase of excess mortality and COVID 19 vaccinations.”





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XR Founder Roger Hallam Sentenced 5 Years In Prison For Blocking M25 Motorway In 2022

By on 20. July 2024

7 weeks of rain and 5 years in prison

By Klimanachrichten

Five years ago, we published an article about Roger Hallam in this blog. He is the founder of XTinction Rebellion and an activist with Stop Oil.

Interestingly, these groups are/were funded with money from oil heirs. Already in 2019 we had many doubts about Hallam’s “story” – it was simply too implausible.

No, you don’t have to trawl through meteorological data from Wales to find such a summer rain period. At least not in the last 10 – 15 years. Small spoiler: It did not exist!

However, the perception of Extinction Rebellion (XR) cult founder Roger Hallam is completely different. In an interview in Spiegel, he talks about his apparently traumatic experience with the 7 weeks of rain in Wales that destroyed his carrot crop. The fact that the interviewer did not notice some inconsistencies in Hallam’s statements does not exactly speak in his favor. But that’s the way it is with human perception.

Hallam described himself as a small farmer, yet, at the same time, 25 jobs had been lost due to the verifiably non-existent rainy season. The XR founder also was not entirely familiar with the year of his personal tragedy. In the interview, he states that ’10 – 15 years ago’ he also lost several hundred thousand pounds.

Let’s imagine that losing so much money puts your own existence at risk. Would we later no longer be able to name the exact year? Even the amount of his loss (‘several hundred thousand pounds’) did not arouse any skepticism with the interviewer. According to Ökolandbau.de, the profit contribution in carrot cultivation is the equivalent to 6,300 pounds per hectare. In terms of profit, this amounts to 2,100 pounds per hectare. So for every hundred thousand pound loss, Hallam would have had to cultivate almost 16 hectares (50 hectares). With carrots only, mind you.”

Extinction Rebellion XR has been somewhat quiet. In Germany, the “Last Generation” took over the actions, in the United Kingdom Stop Oil. These actions included smearing art and blocking roads.

5 years in prison

The verdict was recently handed down and Hallam was hit hard. He can now spend five years in prison thinking about whether these protests were worthwhile.

Hallam had repeatedly failed to comply with court orders. And of course, in his opinion, the system is corrupt. BBC:

Hallam said in a statement during the trial: ‘The corruption of our judges by the carbon state has crossed a line in the sand. This is an opportunity, and an obligation, to act. We only have a limited amount of time to halt the unimaginable horrors of climate and social collapse – and to save our democracy.’ The law of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance, which was introduced in 2022, outlaws direct action that causes ‘serious harm’ to a section of the public. This can include property damage, injury, serious distress, annoyance or inconvenience. In April 2023, Morgan Trowland, who scaled the Queen Elizabeth II Bridge, was jailed for three years for an offence under the new legislation. The judge in the M25 case argued that Parliament had made clear it saw non-violent direct action against national infrastructure as serious and passed a law allowing him to hand down sentences of up to 10 years – more than for some violent offences.”





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Arctic Sea Ice ‘Choke Points’ Reducing NW Passage Shipping Season Length By 5-14 Weeks Since 2007

By on 18. July 2024

Global warming was supposed to open up Arctic region shipping routes, making the Northwest Passage easier and less risky to traverse. Per a new study, the opposite has happened.

As we reported earlier this year, while a declining trend in Arctic sea ice was observed from the 1990s to 2007, there has been no trend reduction in Arctic sea ice since then. A 17-year pause.

It has long been a “common belief” that shipping through Canada’s Northwest Passage would become “more viable” with a warming Arctic and  a consequent reduction in sea ice impediments.

Observations trump beliefs, however.

The East Beaufort Sea has increasingly been generating sea ice “choke points” that have reduced the length of the shipping season from 27 weeks (half the year) during 2007-2011 down to 13 weeks (summer only) during 2017-2021. And, as scientists are now warning, “the negative trend [in shipping season length] shows no sign of reversing.”

Image Source: Cook et al., 2024

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Germany’s Summer Falls Way Short Of Predicted Hellish Temps..North, Baltic Seas Cool

By on 16. July 2024

Snowfan here reports there’s also there’s no heatwave in sight across much of Europe and Germany.

Summer in Germany has slowed halfway through as there’s no sign of Health Minister Karl Lauterbach’s predicted  heatwaves or Marc Benecke’s “hell-summer of the century“, which of course could have led to health emergencies and possible lock downs.

In fact, quite to the contrary, the North Sea and Baltic Sea are severely under-cooled in mid-July, as Europe finds itself surrounded by under-cooled seas.

Source: NOAA reanalysis SSTA eastern North Atlantic with additions

In mid-July 2024, the NOAA reanalysis shows that the seas off the coasts of Europe and off West Africa up to the equator are widely undercooled compared to the global WMO climate mean 1991-2020 (blue and purple). This applies to the eastern North Atlantic, including the North and Baltic Seas, and even the central Mediterranean.

Next we look more closely at the North and Baltic Seas:

Source: NOAA reanalysis SSTA North Sea and Baltic Sea with additions

With the latest data from July 13, 2024, the NOAA reanalysis shows that large parts of these two seas are noticeably cooler than the global WMO climate mean 1991-2020 on July 16, 2024.

Reports of allegedly too warm water there in mid-July 2024 were obviously fake news.





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Causality Analysis Finds Temperature Changes Have Determined CO2 Changes Since The Phanerozoic

By on 15. July 2024

Popular claims that CO2 changes drive temperature changes currently or throughout the distant past “are based on imagination and climate models full of assumptions.”

A comprehensive new study details a stochastic assessment determination of the sequencing of CO2 variations versus temperature variations since the 1950s, over the last 2,000 years (the Common Era), and throughout the last 541 million years.

The robust conclusion is that the causality direction – with the understanding that causes lead and effects lag – clearly shows the temperature changes lead and CO2 changes lag on yearly, decadal, and centennial/millennial scales. In other words, “the reverse causality direction [CO2]→T should be excluded.”

The claim that CO2 increases drive temperature changes is thus a “narrative” only, as the claim that “humans, through their emissions by fossil fuel burning, are responsible for the changes we see in climate” can be regarded as a “non-scientific issue.”

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2024

The author has had a series of peer-reviewed scientific papers published supporting this same T→CO2 conclusion (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2022, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2020, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023, Koutsoyiannis, 2024, Koutsoyiannis, 2024) in just the last few years.

Since these papers challenge the prevailing anthropogenic global warming (AGW) narrative so acutely, Dr. Koutsoyiannis has understandably been the recipient of antagonism bordering on vitriol from AGW proponents. This includes comments from peer-reviewers. So, in an apparent effort to foster transparency, he has made the peer reviewers’ comments on this latest paper public. Here is the link to these commentaries:

Peer reviewers’ exchanges with Koutsoyiannis in “Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO2 causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times.”

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Electricity Rationing At Charging Stations Due To Limited Charging Infrastructure in Europe

By on 14. July 2024

Charging station operator now levying extra fee if you take too long to charge your electric car. The aim: “fairer distribution”.

Germany’s online BlackoutNews.de here reports how Dutch charging station operator Allego is imposing a “blocking fee” at all its European fast chargers.

The fee went into effect on July 1st.

For example, in Germany, if drivers take more than 45 minutes to charge their electric cars at an Allegro fast-charger, then they will have to pay an extra 25 cents-euro for each additional minute of charging beyond 45 minutes.

“This measure is intended to ensure a fairer distribution of the charging infrastructure and prevent unnecessary over-parking, writes Blackout News. “So if you stand at the charging station for an hour longer, you pay almost 15 euros extra,” according to elektroauto-news:.Apparently, the fee is designed to reduce the long charging lines occurring at charging stations, especially as millions of Europeans head out on their summer holidays.

“According to Allego, the introduction of this fee is necessary to ensure fair and timely access to charging stations,” reports Blackout News. “Allego explains that the charge is intended to prevent e-car drivers from occupying the charging stations for longer than necessary.”

This just means more burden on e-car drivers. Either they leave the charging station not fully charge and look for another charging station, or they pay extra to charge fully.

Another reason: power grid limitations. Blackout News reports further: “Due to grid restrictions in many European countries, Allego cannot install as many charging points as desired everywhere. In Germany, grid capacity is considered a bottleneck in many places, which could cause electromobility projects to be severely delayed or even fail.”

Solution? Electricity rationing.





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Electric Car Doldrums…VW Announces 1000 Layoffs At East German Plant

By on 13. July 2024

VW announces 1000 layoffs at large electric-vehicle plant in East Germany as demand slips and market turbulence persists

Blackout News here reports that Volkswagen is planning to cut another 1,000 jobs by the end of 2024 at its factory in Zwickau, Germany.  The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains weak and turbulent.

The news is another blow to a region already gripped by economic and political uncertainty, and underscores how Germany’s green master plan remains an illusion.

The Zwickau plant still employs about 9,400 workers and exclusively produces vehicles with electric drives.

“The move is a result of slow sales of EVs,” reports Blackout News. “The automotive industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase. Many companies are increasingly focusing on electro-mobility, but consumers remain hesitant. High purchase costs, limited range and an inadequate charging infrastructure are some of the reasons that are deterring potential buyers.”

Despite the bad news, Zwickau remains an important location for the production of electric vehicles at VW. How long this will continue as such remains to be seen.

“The cutbacks mainly affect fixed-term employment contracts, which increases uncertainty for many employees. Many employees in Zwickau fear for their future, as fixed-term contracts are expiring and there are no new jobs in sight,”  reports Blackout News.

The prospects for the future of electric cars in Germany remains highly uncertain, and will depend on very much on whether or not electric vehicles will ever gain acceptance from wary buyers. issues surrounding technical feasibility still remain unresolved. As much as governments would like to promote them, their technical realities are there and cannot be discussed away.

Blackout News summarizes with optimism: “It can be said that the automotive industry is undergoing a transformation process that harbors both opportunities and risks. VW in Zwickau is an example of the challenges and necessary adjustments in this transition phase.”

Assuming the “transition phase” ever gets completed.

Blackout News is operated by an independent and non-partisan small group of engineers with experience in energy management.





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Seminal 1967 Paper Introducing CO2 ‘Radiative Forcing’ Is Based On Assumptive Imaginary-World Modeling

By on 12. July 2024

A new study comprehensively eviscerates a 57-year-old modeling paper upon which nearly the entirety of the IPCC’s CO2-drives-climate paradigm is based.

Dr. Roy Clark has published a new 73-page study that rips apart the Manabe and Wetherald (1967) paper (MW67) that effectively hatched the IPCC-popularized concepts of CO2 climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, and positive/negative feedbacks so as to portray humans as predominantly responsible for climate changes.

The invalid, error-ridden conceptualization of a Earth land and ocean surface warmed by CO2 radiative forcing is one-dimensional and Flat Earth and assumes constant equilibrium, or perpetually steady states (that do not exist in the real world).

Even the most basic of assumptions in MW67 – that CO2 warms the Earth and ocean as its concentration is increased – is “largely a mathematical artifact produced by using a highly simplified one-dimensional radiative convective computer model.” CO2 climate sensitivity is but a calculation built on simplification errors.

The MW67 model (and the Hansen et al., 1981 paper that expanded it to its present-day form) neglects a host of real-world phenomena.

For example, evaporation (for the ocean) is ignored. Wind (which modulates evaporation) and waves are ignored. The ocean is assumed to be a flat, one-dimensional object that is predominantly heated by downward infrared radiation.

The effects of molecular collisions and turbulence in the troposphere are ignored. Diurnal temperature is ignored. Humidity is assumed to be perpetually constant rather than varying with the solar heating of the surface.

“The effects of advection, evaporation, subsurface thermal storage and ocean transport were ignored” in MW67.

The steady state assumption (that was first featured in 1896 by Arrhenius) is not real, as there is “no steady state air column in the real atmosphere and both turbulent and moist convection and subsurface thermal storage have to be included in the time dependent surface energy transfer analysis.”

The radiative “perturbation” from a CO2 increase from 280 to 560 ppm could only produce a 0.08 K temperature change over the course of a day using the MW67 radiative transfer model calculations. This variation is too small to detect, and it cannot accumulate over days or seasons.

Simply put, MW67 effectively constructs a set of assumptions about what may only occur in an imaginary-world. And this is the Nobel Prize-winning paper that underpins the modern-day version of climate science.

Image Source: Clark, 2024

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New Study: ‘Carbon Dioxide And A Warming Climate Are Not Problems’

By on 8. July 2024

Instead, warmth and elevated CO2 are a boon for humanity.

A new peer-reviewed paper published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology (May and Crok, 2024) counters the prevailing “wisdom” that says a warmer climate and greener vegetation are problematic.

The authors detail the horrors of the much colder Little Ice Age that destroyed civilizations (crop failures, summerless years). Half the population of Finland and 15% of Scotland’s citizens died off in the 1690s due primarily to the cold-induced famines and frozen-over water supplies.

Elevated CO2 and warmth are 70% and 8% responsible, respectively, for a much greener, more vegetated landscape across the world since the 1980s.

The incidence and severity of storms, hurricanes, floods, and extreme weather in general have undergone flat to declining trends over the last several decades. Thus, “it is hard to find any unusual weather or weather-related disaster that can be blamed on climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic.”

“52 of 53 studies of disaster losses due to extreme weather were unable to attribute the events to human causes…”

The US government estimates the warming since 1950 has reduced the country’s gross domestic product by less than 0.5%, and an estimated 3°C of warming by 2100 still only reduces the GDP by less than 1%. Considering the US economy grew by 800% from 1950 to present, this means any assumed “damage” from warmth and elevated CO2 would not be detectable.

The quest to “save” the world from warming and elevated CO2 is devoid of scientific and socio-economic merit.

Image Source: May and Crok, 2024

Image Source: May and Crok, 2024

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Giant Oyster Shell Discovery Suggests Early Holocene Seas Were 4°C (Up To 8°C) Warmer Than Today

By on 5. July 2024

Scientists continue to uncover evidence of a much warmer Early Holocene, when CO2 hovered near 260 ppm.

According to a new study, an ancient 42-centimeter long oyster shell has been found ~20 km inland from today’s Taipei Basin (Taiwan) coast.

Extensive isotope analyses (69 of them) of a 5 cm section of the shell reveal that the last time this area was regularly under sea level was about 8000 years ago, or during the Early Holocene.

Given that oysters reside in water depths of about 2 meters, sea levels can be calculated to have been about 1-3 meters higher than present at that time.

Also, while modern winter temperatures range from 14-16°C at this location, the analyses further revealed that the Early Holocene winter sea surface temperatures likely ranged from 15 to 23°C, which is ~4°C warmer than today on average, and up to 8°C warmer if winter temperatures reached 23°C.

“winter temperature in Taipei Basin ~7660 cal BP was estimated as 15-23°C, warmer than today [14-16°C]”

Image Source: Li et al., 2024

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