A Shower Of Papers, New Climate Models, Show Natural Oceanic Cycles The Recent Major Climate Factor!

Finally there’s agreement: Ocean cycles are responsible for the missing warming since 2000

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated, edited by P Gosselin)

It was stated in our 2012 climate science skeptical book “Die kalte Sonne” and was massively criticized. Today it is accepted: the systematic impact of ocean cycles on climate events.

The latest example: Meehl et al. from August 2016 in Nature Climate Change:

Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends
Longer-term externally forced trends in global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) are embedded in the background noise of internally generated multidecadal variability1. A key mode of internal variability is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which contributed to a reduced GMST trend during the early 2000s1, 2, 3. We use a novel, physical phenomenon-based approach to quantify the contribution from a source of internally generated multidecadal variability—the IPO—to multidecadal GMST trends. Here we show that the largest IPO contributions occurred in its positive phase during the rapid warming periods from 1910–1941 and 1971–1995, with the IPO contributing 71% and 75%, respectively, to the difference between the median values of the externally forced trends and observed trends. The IPO transition from positive to negative in the late-1990s contributed 27% of the discrepancy between model median estimates of the forced part of the GMST trend and the observed trend from 1995 to 2013, with additional contributions that are probably due to internal variability outside of the Pacific4 and an externally forced response from small volcanic eruptions5. Understanding and quantifying the contribution of a specific source of internally generated variability—the IPO—to GMST trends is necessary to improve decadal climate prediction skill.”

The cycles always pop up with new names, but in the end they are all relatives of the PDO and AMO, which are also coupled with one another with a time lag.

Now that this factual basis has become accepted, suddenly there have been a shower of publications. For example Chikamoto et al. from the Geophysical Research Letters in July 2016:

Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends
The tropical Pacific cooling from the early 1990s to 2013 has contributed to the slowdown of globally averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The origin of this regional cooling trend still remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the remote impact of Atlantic SST anomalies, as well as local atmosphere-ocean interactions, contributed to the eastern Pacific cooling during this period. By assimilating observed three-dimensional Atlantic temperature and salinity anomalies into a coupled general circulation model, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the observed Pacific decadal trends of SST and sea level pressure (SLP), albeit with reduced amplitude. Although a major part of the Pacific SLP trend can be explained by equatorial Pacific SST forcing only, the origin of this low-frequency variability can be traced back further to the remote impacts of equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic SST trends. Atlantic SST impacts on the atmospheric circulation can also be detected for the Northeastern Pacific, thus providing a linkage between Atlantic climate and Western North American drought conditions.”

Incorporating ocean cycles in the climate models has now taken on top priority as the earlier models have failed miserably, just as has been shown by Peings et al. in March 2016 in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Let’s ignore the past for now and direct our focus instead on the new, improved models.

Also a team led by Monika Barcikowska succeeded in integrating the ocean cycles in model simulations as explained on 20 October 2016 in the Journal of Climate. And suddenly, lo and behold, the warming hiatus made sense and cooling looks likely for the future:

Observed and simulated fingerprints of multidecadal climate variability, and their contributions to periods of global SST stagnation

This study investigates spatio-temporal features of multidecadal climate variability, using observations and climate model simulation. Aside from a long-term warming trend, observational SST and atmospheric circulation records are dominated by a ~65yr variability component. Though its center of action is over the North Atlantic, but it manifests also over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, suggesting a tropical inter-basin teleconnection maintained through an atmospheric bridge.

Our analysis shows that simulated internal climate variability in a coupled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0) reproduces the main spatio-temporal features of the observed component. Model-based multidecadal variability comprises a coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnection, established through a zonally oriented atmospheric overturning circulation between the tropical North Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific. During the warm SST phase in the North Atlantic, increasing SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic strengthen locally ascending air motion and intensify subsidence and low-level divergence in the eastern tropical Pacific. This corresponds with a strengthening of trade winds and cooling in the tropical central Pacific.

The model’s derived component substantially shapes its global climate variability and is tightly linked to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This suggests potential predictive utility and underscores the importance of correctly representing North Atlantic variability in simulations of global and regional climate.

If the observations-based component of variability originates from internal climate processes, as found in the model, the recently observed (1970s-2000s) North Atlantic warming and eastern tropical Pacific cooling might presage an ongoing transition to a cold North Atlantic phase with possible implications for near-term global temperature evolution.”

And because it is so nice, here’s another paper on the subject by Dai et al. 2015 from Nature Climate Change:

Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability
Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming1, 2, 3. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific1, 4, 5, intensifying trade winds5, changes in El Niño activity6, 7, increasing volcanic activity8, 9, 10 and decreasing solar irradiance7. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called ‘hiatus’ period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.”

The summary sentence with suspected warming linked to ocean cycles over the coming years is mysterious, though. Perhaps the authors here are thinking about the time after 2035…

If any journalist, who got all excited about our “crude” ocean cycle theory when we published our book in 2012, wishes to contact us — they’re welcome to do so. We are not resentful when the apology comes from the heart.

New Paper Debunks Ad Hoc ‘Explanation’ That Antarctic Sea Ice Has Been Growing Since ’80s Due To Human Activity

“In science and philosophy, ad hoc means the addition of extraneous hypotheses to a theory to save it from being falsified. Ad hoc hypotheses compensate for anomalies not anticipated by the theory in its unmodified form.  Scientists are often skeptical of scientific theories that rely on frequent, unsupported adjustments to sustain them. Ad hoc hypotheses are often characteristic of pseudoscientific subjects such as homeopathy.”   — Wikipedia on the scientific definition of ad hoc hypotheses

Observational evidence indicates that Antarctic sea ice has been advancing in recent decades, a trend that has puzzled climate modelers who assume that a warming globe will inhibit sea ice growth.  About 86% of all climate models have indicated that sea ice would show a declining trend for Antarctica, and just 14% (1 out of every 7) concluded sea ice extent would advance.  The average observed growth has been +1.29 (x 105 km2/decade) during the satellite era (since 1979), whereas the models projected a decline of -3.36  (x 105 km2/decade) on average.

Shu et al., 2015 

Forty-nine models, almost all of the CMIP5 climate models and earth system models with historical simulation, are used. For the Antarctic, multi-model ensemble mean (MME) results can give good climatology of sea ice extent (SIE), but the linear trend is incorrect. The linear trend of satellite-observed Antarctic SIE [sea ice extent] is +1.29 (±0.57) × 105 km2 decade−1 ; only about 1/7 CMIP5 models show increasing trends, and the [modeled] linear trend of CMIP5 MME is negative with the value of −3.36 (±0.15) × 105 km2 decade−1 .

Not willing to countenance the fact that their modeling was so terribly wrong, advocates of alarming anthropogenic global warming recently decided it was time to get creative in explaining why their modeling could still be quite right after all.  Of course, these advocates could not and would not admit that decades of growing sea ice trends would indicate that Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean have not been warming, but cooling, during the last 3 decades in concert with the facile principle that cooler surface waters allow more sea ice to form.

Ackley et al., 2015

Sea-ice growth and melt are determined by the heat balance between the OHF [ocean heat flux] and the conductive heat transfer through the overlying ice cover. … Low atmospheric temperatures drive sea-ice formation, while relatively high ocean temperatures that can limit ice growth are a principal cause of sea-ice melt in the Antarctic.

Acknowledging that the southern pole has been cooling since the 1980s would serve to undermine the paradigm that says the entire globe has been steadily warming due to human activity.  In other words, a cooling Antarctica and Southern Ocean doesn’t advance the cause.

So instead of acknowledging that Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean have been not been warming recently (as observational evidence clearly indicates), these advocates decided to issue a convoluted explanation about why sea ice grows in a warming world.  Well, in the Southern Hemisphere, anyway.  In the Northern Hemisphere, it is wholly accepted that warming causes sea ice to decline, which has been observed in the Arctic in recent decades In the Southern Hemisphere, warming causes sea ice to grow.  Confused?  We’re just getting started.

As mentioned, advocates of the position that human-caused global warming causes sea ice to grow in the Southern Hemisphere first deny that Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have been cooling in recent decades (despite the observational evidence).  Instead, they claim that the region has continued to warm, consistent with climate modeling and anthropogenic global warming expectations.  They then can claim that a warming Southern Ocean and Antarctic continent have led to enhanced land ice melt along the coasts of Antarctica.  This enhanced land ice melt has meant that the seas near the coasts have had new “cold, fresh layer” (from additional land ice meltwater) gliding over the surface of the ocean.  This “cold, fresh layer” of run-off water from enhanced land ice melt keeps the warming oceans from warming up too much, and this “cold, fresh layer” travels far and wide, suppressing the ability of the warming surface waters to limit sea ice growth.   In this way, the warming waters with a “cold, fresh layer” on top from all the additional land ice meltwater could be said to have caused the sea ice to grow.  Again, this process only works in the Southern Hemisphere.  It doesn’t work in the Northern Hemisphere, where the enhanced land ice melt in the Arctic does not result in sea ice growth, but a dramatic sea ice decline.

Surely this convoluted, ad hoc “explanation” for why anthropogenic global warming causes sea ice growth would not be taken seriously.  Right?  Well, actually, it has been taken very seriously.  No less than the journal Nature embraced it.  NSIDC’s director Mark Serreze promoted this makeshift conceptualization too.  And, of course, the usual suspects in the print media were all to eager to agree that human CO2 emissions cause sea ice to grow in Antarctica (and simultaneously shrink in the Arctic).

Nature News, 2013

Global warming expands Antarctic sea ice: In a polar paradox, melting land ice helps sea ice to grow.

Ocean warming may be a major driver of sea-ice expansion in the Antarctic, researchers report today in Nature Geoscience. … Scientists have known for several years that meltwater from ice sheets can form a cold, fresh layer on the ocean surface that protects sea ice from the warmer waters below. … “The paradox is that global warming leads to more cooling and more sea ice around Antarctica,” says Richard Bintanja, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in Utrecht.

UK Daily Mail (2014)

Global warming is creating MORE ice: Antarctic levels reach a record high because of climate change, scientists claim

Claim was made by Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Centre Shift is caused by water melting from beneath the Antarctic ice shelves Scientists claim it is then re-frozen back on surface, increasing sea ice

New Paper Debunks Claim That Humans Cause Antarctic Sea Ice To Advance

A new paper shreds this ad hoc explanation linking human activity to sea ice growth in the Southern Hemisphere.  Pauling et al. (2016) find that internal dynamics could explain the cooling and increase in sea ice extent in recent decades, and that an enhancement of the “freshwater input by an amount within the range of estimates of the Antarctic mass imbalance did not have any significant effect on either sea ice area magnitude or trend” — even if one assumes that anthropogenic forcing causes a decline in sea ice to offset the hypothetical growth trend due to enhanced “freshwater input”.

Pauling et al., 2016

The possibility that recent Antarctic sea ice expansion resulted from an increase in freshwater reaching the Southern Ocean is investigated here. … Two sets of experiments were conducted from 1980 to 2013 in CESM1(CAM5), one of the CMIP5 models, artificially distributing freshwater either at the ocean surface to mimic iceberg melt or at the ice shelf fronts at depth. An anomalous reduction in vertical advection of heat into the surface mixed layer resulted in sea surface cooling at high southern latitudes and an associated increase in sea ice area. Enhancing the freshwater input by an amount within the range of estimates of the Antarctic mass imbalance did not have any significant effect on either sea ice area magnitude or trend. 

A Better Explanation: Antarctica, Southern Ocean Have Been Cooling Since The 1980s

As mentioned above, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have not been cooperating with anthropogenic “global” warming models.  The region has been cooling for decades.  And a cooling Southern Ocean has led to increasing sea ice trends.  In other words, no convoluted explanations are necessary.

Fan et al., 2014

[A]ll of these studies reported a close relationship between [sea ice extent] and sea surface temperature (SST) whereby sea ice gain is associated with lower SSTs and vice versa. … Cooling is evident over most of the Southern Ocean in all seasons and the annual mean, with magnitudes approximately 0.2–0.4°C per decade or 0.7–1.3°C over the 33 year period [1979-2011].

Doran et al., 2002

[O]ur spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn.

holocene-cooling-antarctica-continent-doran-02

Turner et al., 2016

Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional [Antarctic Peninsula] warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer.

holocene-cooling-antarctica-peninsula-turner16-copy

Jones et al., 2016

Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

holocene-cooling-antarctica-e-southern-ocean-sst-jones16

holocene-cooling-antarctica-f-sh-sea-ice-extent-jones16-copy

During 1950s – 1980s, Antarctica, Southern Ocean Warmed, And Sea Ice Declined

In the Northern Hemisphere, Arctic sea ice declines during warm phases (e.g., the 1920s to 1940s and the 1990s to present), and Arctic sea ice increases during cooling phases (like it did during the 1950s to 1980s).  Similarly, when the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continent warmed during the 1950s to 1980s, sea ice declined.  Since the 1980s, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have cooled, and, consequently, sea ice area has grown.  Not only that, but a majority of East Antarctic glaciers have been advancing since the 1990s.  Again, no convoluted, ad hoc explanations are necessary.  Cooling contributes to ice growth trends, and warming contributes to declining ice trends.

IPCC (2001):

Another analysis of a 21-station data set from Antarctica by Comiso (1999) found a warming trend equivalent to 1.25°C per century for a 45-year record beginning in the 1950s but a slight cooling trend from 1979 to 1998. The slight cooling trend for this later 20-year period also was confirmed via analysis of surface temperatures over the whole continent, as inferred from satellite data.

Fan et al., 2014

[S]ea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures decreased during 1979–2011, consistent with the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctica warmed during 1950–1978.

Sinclair et al., 2014

We present the first proxy record of sea-ice area (SIA) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, from a 130 year coastal ice-core record. High-resolution deuterium excess data show prevailing stable SIA [sea ice area] from the 1880s until the 1950s, a 2–5% reduction from the mid-1950s to the early-1990s, and a 5% increase after 1993.

Miles et al., 2013

Despite large fluctuations between glaciers—linked to their size—three epochal patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010.  … Indeed, several studies report increasing sea-ice concentrations in the study region from approximately 1980 to 2010, which is consistent with the predominance of glacier advance since 1990, when above-average sea-ice and fast-ice concentrations could have suppressed calving by increasing back-pressure on glacier termini. In contrast, reduced sea ice concentrations from the 1950s to the mid 1970s are consistent with glacier retreat during the 1960s and 1970s, when air temperatures were also increasing along the Pacific coast.

holocene-cooling-east-antarctica-miles16-copy

Sea Ice Trends In Antarctica Are Incompatible With An Anthropogenic Or CO2 Influence

The reason why advocates of an alarming anthropogenic influence on climate are so intent on “explaining” why warming causes sea ice to grow in the Southern Hemisphere is simple: what has been observed with Antarctic sea ice undermines the claim that anthropogenic global warming is predominantly responsible for polar sea ice trends.  And the observation that Antarctica warmed during the 1950s to 1980s, when CO2 levels were in the “safe” range (under 350 ppm), but it has cooled since the 1980s as CO2 levels exploded past 400 ppm, is also very incompatible with the conclusion that humans determine the ice trends in the southern polar climate with their CO2 emissions.

Of course, what has been happening in Antarctica is entirely consistent with what would be expected with natural or internal variability, and not what would be expected from models of rapidly growing CO2 concentrations.

Latif et al., 2013

During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection, the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. 

At some point it must be acknowledged that something is seriously wrong with climate models that presume anthropogenic influences dominate the trends in polar sea ice.  One wonders what the next makeshift “explanation” will be for a likely increase in Arctic sea ice extent at some point in the near future, or as the warming phase in the Arctic draws to a close in the coming years.

Electric Autos Could Threaten 250,000 High Paying German Jobs, Experts Warn

I’ve written on a couple of occasions about how some in the German government are demanding that Germany start banning the internal combustion engine already by 2030 and switch to electric cars — a radical proposal to say the least.

elektro-autos_in-rom

Photo right by Marco Verch, CC BY 2.0

Some two weeks ago the online FOCUS magazine commented on this here, writing, however, that “the electric car is an economic disaster” and that some experts believe that the “German automotive industry has no chance to survive“.

It needs to be mentioned that the German auto industry is the backbone of the German economy, as it is directly and indirectly responsible for 1 of every 5 jobs. This makes it the logical place to begin for any anyone harboring a desire to destroy the German industrial base.

FOCUS quotes future expert Stephan Rammler:

Replacing 40 million internal combustion engine cars with 40 million electric cars makes no sense. As long as we have no closed loop economy, the electrification and digitalization will lead to an economic disaster.”

Rammler then goes on to predict that the German auto industry would never survive such a transformation because the competition in Asia is already able to make products that are just as good, citing Borgward or Lynk & Co., who are already planning to sell in Germany.

According to auto industry expert Professor Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, 250,000 German jobs of a total of 800,000 directly in the auto industry are at risk, especially jobs with mid-size automotive suppliers.

In a video posted by FOCUS here, Sebastian Viehmann explains that the lost jobs would result from the simplification of the cars. For example an internal combustion engine has some 1200 parts, while an electric motor has only 17. Suppliers for the individual parts and assemblies would no longer be needed. Also electric cars would become such a simple product that they could be snapped up at a supermarket in the same way a shopper buys a toaster. Automotive dealerships and repair shops would become redundant.

When looking at self-driving, autonomous cars, the insurance industry would also end up losing lots of business. In the event of an accident, the manufacturer would be liable, and not the driver. Many drivers would likely welcome that.

A lot of these changes of course can be viewed as advantages for the consumers, and highly skilled workers would be freed up to focus on other technical challenges and development.

But there are still the questions surrounding range and batteries, and the environmental impacts the manufacture and disposal of the batteries would have. Moreover, does it make sense to rush in a panic into a technology that is still a long way from being feasible? Perhaps a gradual, flexible transition over 50 – 75 years would make more sense.

Furthermore, internal combustion engines have made great strides when it comes to efficiency and cleanliness. In some categories they offer huge advantages.

 

“Climate-Saving” Green Energies In Germany “Also Useless In November”!

The Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here recently reminded readers of two things: 1) renewable energies are performing woefully and temperature trends for Germany are pretty much flat, meaning they do not even remotely resemble anything you’d expect from a rapidly warming globe.
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A look at the “climate-rescuing” new energies

By Helmut Kuntz
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

This comment pretty much remains the same as the last one posted for October. Also in November the new energies have proven their uselessness. Supposedly they are already delivering 35% of the electric power demand – however only in the rare times that it actually gets produced.

Overall there are still no signs of a “reliable supply” and baseload capability to be seen anywhere.

Germany’s November plots for demand (red), wind power (blue) and solar power (yellow). Often both sun a wind were practically AWOL. Source: R. Schuster

If the installed green power capacity were to be tripled, then the result would look like that shown in the following chart. Consumption would still not be able to be covered – even using (currently unavailable) storage capacity. What’s glaring is the low level power yield seen in November with regards to the installed capacity. The power grids have to be designed to handle the rated installed capacity.

One can already imagine the feed-in act-related installation madness that remains ahead for Germany.

Germany November plots for the new energies multiplied by 3 and consumption (Verbrauch).The upper red line at 270,000 MW represents the tripled installed capacity. Source: R. Schuster.

The above chart clearly shows that even a tripling of installed rated capacity to 270,000 MW would still not even come close to covering Germany’s electricity needs.

Very little warming in November since 1962

On temperature in Germany, the following chart shows the mean temperature for November, starting in 1962. A rapid heating looks much different.

Germany DWD national weather service November-temperatures for Germany from 1962 to 2016 (blue), 30-year mean value (brown). Chart produced from DWD data by Helmut Kuntz

Summary

Also November shows an unbelievable normalcy with respect to climate. The great breakaway change predicted by computer simulations is still nowhere in sight.

 

3 New Papers: Global Seas Now Rising About 2 Inches Per Century … Claims Of 1 Meter Rise By 2100 ‘Sheer Nonsense’

According to the most highly-cited estimate of recent (1992 – 2011) polar ice sheet melt rates, the land ice on Greenland and Antarctica has been contributing to sea level rise at a rate of 0.59 mm/year in the modern era, which means the equivalent of 5.9 centimeters (2.3 inches) per century of sea level rise might eventually accrue if the polar ice sheets continue melting at current rates for the next 10 decades.

Shepherd et al., 2012

Since 1992 [through 2011], the polar ice sheets [Antarctica and Greenland] have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Of course, a sea level rise rate contribution from Greenland and Antarctica that amounts to a little more than 2 inches per century is not particularly alarming.  And when observed sea level rise contribution rates from melting ice sheets don’t elicit the headlining attention they deserve, it’s time to promulgate climate modeling catastrophes that might occur at some point in the distant future.

For example, earlier this year Slate‘s resident meteorologist Eric Holthaus excitedly embraced the James Hansen ice-melt catastrophe paper (Hansen et al., 2016) as a welcome tenet of a supposedly authoritative scientific canon: “James Hansen’s Bombshell Warning Is Now Part of the Scientific Canon”.

The paper, which has undergone some wording revisions since the original version appeared in July, 2015, apparently “concludes” that the polar ice sheets will soon melt catastrophically, and that this ice sheet melt contribution will in turn result in sea level rise of “at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years“.

Eric Holthaus, Slate:

“The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are ered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years.

Again, the combined Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet melt contribution to sea level rise was 0.59 mm/year during 1992 – 2011 (Shepherd et al., 2012), or about 6 cm (2.3 inches) per century.  To achieve James Hansen’s claimed sea level rise prediction of 10 feet (3.05 meters) within 50 years due to rapidly melting Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, the current melt rates would have to increase by a factor of 100.  Instead of the polar ice sheet contribution rate of 0.23 of an inch per decade for 1992-2011, the rate in the next 50 years will need to average 23 inches per decade — two orders of magnitude more than presently observed.

And for the record, the observed melt-rate contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets of 0.59 mm/yr for 1992 – 2011 is very likely an overestimate.  For one, NASA has reported that there was an overall ice mass gain for Antarctica during this same period (1992-2008), and thus a reduction in sea level rise equivalent to -0.23 mm/yr (rather than a net positive contribution of +0.19 mm/yr as determined by Shepherd et al., 2011).  Secondly, in current datasets the baseline period for establishing the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet is the 1961-1990 tricade.  However, those 30 years were notoriously cold in Greenland, a full 1.5 degrees C colder than the 1920-1940s period, when Greenland was actually as warm or warmer than recent decades.  If the baseline data were not centered on the coldest decades of the century, but instead included the 1920s-1940s warm period, the record of net “loss” for the Greenland ice sheet since the 1990s would be significantly reduced, and there may have been an overall net mass gain relative to the 1920s-’40s for recent decades.  Succinctly, different baseline data would yield an even more negligible Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise for 1992-2011 than reported by Shepherd et al., 2011 (0.4 mm/yr, or 1.6 inches per century).

Considering Paleoclimate Data, Sea Level Rise Projections Of Even 1 Meter Per Century Are ‘Sheer Nonsense’, ‘Demagoguery’

World-renown scientist Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner, a sea level expert who has authored hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific publication during his career, has recently weighed in on the preposterousness of claiming sea levels will rise even 1 meter in the next 100 years — let alone over 3 meters in the next 50, as James Hansen claims.  Using past records of sea level rise rates from the earliest decades and centuries of the Holocene (~11,000 years ago), Mörner concludes that it is not possible for modern sea levels to rise at rates of 10 mm/year (1 meter/century) — or faster than they did during a time when much of the Northern Hemisphere was still buried kilometers-deep in ice and temperatures were rising far more rapidly than today.

Mörner,  2016

Sea level is globally varying between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr (0.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr). … At 11,000 BP we had enormous amounts of ice still left in the huge continental ice caps of the Last Ice Age. In Canada, the ice front was in St. Lawrence lowland, and in Scandinavia, the ice margin was at Stockholm. At the warming pulse ending the Pleistocene and starting the Holocene, ice melted at an exceptionally strong forcing. Today, there is neither ice nor climate forcing that in any way can be compared to what happened 11,000 – 10,000 BP. The conclusion is obvious; we can never in present time have any ice melting and sea level rise as strong- and certainly not stronger-than that occurring at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. Therefore, a rate of sea level rise of +10.0 mm/yr or 1.0 m per century can be held as the absolutely ultimate value of any present day sea level rise. Any present rise in sea level must be far below this value to be realistic in view of past records and the physical factors controlling ice melting. Therefore, we can also dismiss any claim of sea level rise exceeding 1 m in the next century as sheer nonsense and unfounded demagoguery.

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Sea Levels Currently Rising Between 0 – 1 mm/yr; Modeled ‘Corrections’ To Sea Level Rise Data Artificially And Erroneously Raise Rates

A year ago, Dr. Mörner detailed his comprehensive critique of the alterations to observed data (euphemistically referred to as “corrections”).  He determined that if the “corrections” (i.e., modeled adjustments that artificially raise sea levels) for the satellite data are removed, sea levels only rose at a rate of 0.45 mm/year (2 inches per century) between 1992-2015, which is about 1/7th of the rate of rise reported by altimetry datasets.

Mörner,  2015

The satellite altimetry records are claimed to be “a proxy for ocean water volume changes”, but behind the curves are unspecified “corrections” hidden, applied by NOAA and CU in order to obtain the product they personally assumed to be the correct “proxy of ocean water volume changes”. There is a major problem, however: their satellite altimetry records differ by 100% to 800% from observed tide gauge measurements. With the removal of GIA corrections … from the satellite altimetry data, we finally obtain agreements among global tide gauge data, costal morphology data and satellite altimetry data; all agreeing on a mean global eustatic sea level factor somewhere within the zone ±0.0 to +1.0 mm/yr.
The mean of 182 sites (excluding a few outliers) scattered all over the globe is 1.6 mm/ yr. Because of long-term subsidence of many river mouth sites and site-specific compaction problems, this value may, in fact, represent a slightly too high value. The key sites here discussed provide values of about 0.0 mm/yr, and the Kattegatt and North Sea records give firm values around 1.0 ± 0.1 mm/yr. This data set is in deep conflict with the high rates proposed by the IPCC and satellite altimetry. The differences in rates can only be understood in terms of errors and mistakes. The true mean global eustatic component is likely to be found in the zone ranging from +2.0 mm/yr to ±0.0 mm/yr, and most probably in the lower half of this zone; i.e. within 1.0 – 0.0 mm/yr. The error was found to be in the satellite altimetry values for reasons of incorrect “corrections”
The only data set which hangs far above the others is the IPCC predictions. Those data, however, refer to assumptions and model out-puts, and are, by no means, anchored in observational facts. … [I]t is high time to abandon the idea of global isostatic adjustment, and to stop all kinds of GIA corrections of records of sea level changes (i.e. satellite altimetry, GRACE, tide gauges, etc.).

sea-level-0-45-mm-per-year-1992-2015-copy

The reported rates exceeding 3 mm/year are based on models instead of direct observational measurements.  Echoing a 2015 paper from Beenstock et al., two more new papers (another by Mörner) indicate that observations (i.e., non-modeled, non-adjusted measurements from tide gauges from all over the world) of global sea level rise range somewhere between 0 and 1 mm/yr, or a few inches per century.

Beenstock et al., 2015

Using recently developed methods for nonstationary time series, we find that sea levels rose in 7 % of tide gauge locations and fell in 4 %. The global mean increase is 0.39–1.03 mm/year.

Mörner,  2016

Observational facts recorded and controllable in the field tell a quite different story of actual sea-level rise than the ones based on model simulations, especially all those who try to endorse a preconceived scenario of disastrous flooding to come. “Poster sites” like Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Kiribati in the Pacific have tide gauge stations indicating stable sea-level conditions over the last 20–30 years. The Maldives, Goa, Bangladesh, and several additional sites in the Indian Ocean provide firm field evidence of stable sea-level conditions over the last 40–50 years. Northeast Europe provides excellent opportunities to test regional eustasy, now firmly being set at +1.0 ± 0.1 mm/year. Other test areas like Venice, Guyana–Surinam, Qatar, and Perth provide a eustatic factor of ±0.0 mm/year. We now have a congruent picture of actual global sea-level changes, i.e., between ±0.0 to +1.0 mm/year. This implies little or no threat for future sea-level problems.

Parker and Ollier, 2016

Tide gauges provide the most reliable measurements, and best data to assess the rate of change. We show as the naïve averaging of all the tide gauges included in the PSMSL surveys show “relative” rates of rise about +1.04 mm/year (570 tide gauges of any length). If we consider only 100 tide gauges with more than 80 years of recording the rise is only +0.25 mm/year. This naïve averaging has been stable and shows that the sea levels are slowly rising but not accelerating. …The satellite altimetry returns a noisy signal so that a +3.2 mm/year trend is only achieved by arbitrary “corrections”.
We conclude that if the sea levels are only oscillating about constant trends everywhere as suggested by the tide gauges, then the effects of climate change are negligible, and the local patterns may be used for local coastal planning without any need of purely speculative global trends based on emission scenarios.

Trump’s Election Means A Chance For “A Return To Reason In Climate Policy”, German Expert Writes

Physicist Dr. Peter Heller wrote at the German language Science Skeptical here how the election of Donald Trump could mean “the return to reason in climate policy” and that there may be a course change: “one away from trying to do what’s good for the climate, to one that does what is good for man.”

Peter Heller

Physicist Dr. Peter Heller. Photo: FDP

He writes:

This is neither dangerous nor unscientific – rather it is optimistic. It holds the promise for a better future that offers more than just the energy savings variant of the present.”

Heller views both opposite extreme positions taken by the radical elements on either side of the debate as irreconcilable and are in fact “nonsense that have more to to do with belief than with science.”

Heller then adds that if the climate alarmists had their way, they “would not only destroy our current prosperity, but also rob mankind of all options to further prosper in the future.”

Today Heller sees hope for a return to reason in climate policy given the “current developments“. One reason for hope he cites is the recently watered down Climate Plan 2050 submitted by the German government at the recent Climate Conference in Morocco. Ultimately Germany was not ready to deindustrialize after all. Heller believes:

Thirty years of climate diplomacy where tens of thousands of taxpayer-funded politicians, bureaucrats and scientists jetted to large conferences and congresses at attractive touristic locations were useless. […] After the election Donald Trump to President of the United States, the gate for better policy has finally opened endlessly wide.”

In his analysis Heller of course agrees that man has an impact on climate and that the greenhouse effect is real, but that this does not necessarily mean climate change is climate catastrophe. He thinks climate sensitivity is closer to 1°C per doubling of CO2. He calls the claims that climate is only worsening “pure speculation” and the claim that man-made climate change is taking us to a climate catastrophe is based on “numerous assumptions“.

Heller also thinks that human ingenuity with respect to adapting to new conditions is being hugely underestimated, reminding readers that humans have adapted to and mastered every climate zone on the planet.

Even in regions where there are frequent drought periods, powerful storms or flooding, man did not retreat. His ingenuity overcame all obstacles. The temperature range within which civilization spread went far beyond the range of 2°C.”

As part of this adaptation, Heller calls fossil energies “a moral necessity” because we use them to generate our prosperity and to produce products of every type that benefit our lives.

In many applications they are indispensable and some are not so easily replaceable, as the 2°C target demands. In summary their advantages substantially outweigh their disadvantages. […] Fossil fuels not freed humanity from feudal exploitation and slavery because they provide an efficient and effective supply through machines, they have foremost enabled us to refrain from consuming biomass as a form of energy and thus prevented the destruction of the environment. In the 18th century when charcoal was substituted by coke in iron smelting, forests once again were able to expand.”

Heller sees Donald Trump as a “new start”, someone who will expand the production of fossil fuels and end the climate protection policy of Obama, and thus with it usher in a series of economic, social and political advantages.

This could introduce the end of international climate diplomacy in its current form, as countries like Russia, China or India are also poised for a reorientation.”

The German physicist calls the howls and gnashing of teeth now taking place within the German mainstream media “over-the-top and wrong”.

He summarizes:

From the very beginning it was a fundamental mistake by climate policy to allow political activists from climate research to have the say. Donald Trump’s program puts the setting of guidelines where it really belongs: in a policymaking that that does not focus on the welfare of the climate, but rather on the welfare on mankind. Climate protection through decarbonization does not offer anything to anyone. In the end even its proponents are left with nothing except a good feeling.”

 

Spiegel: EU Corporations Have Raked In 25 Billion Euros Through Corrupt Emissions Trading Scheme!

Emissions trading was set up to entice fossil fuel intense companies to reduce their CO2 emissions, and thus in this way help bring atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a standstill, and thus rescue the climate, according to the man-made global warming theory.

carbon-market-watch-cover__2008_2015_fin

New report by Carbon Market Watch shows large corporations raking in billions in CO2 emissions trading scheme.

However, things aren’t quite working out that way. Spiegel here cites a comprehensive report by the non-government organization Carbon Market Watch (CMW), which concludes that large companies are in fact making billions from free emissions certificates, and CO2 emissions aren’t improving at all.

The European large industry have managed to squeeze out 25 billion over the past years through special rights in the EU emissions trading system.”

The study looked at the 20 strongest countries from 2008 to 2015, Spiegel writes.

Easy money

Agnes Brandt of the CMW comments:

The figures show how easy it is to make money from pollution and just much the lobby-watered-down CO2 trading system has failed.”

Little wonder that so money companies happily adopted the climate protection and CO2 scam. Many have gotten rich from it without having to produce anything tangible for society to benefit from.

And who pays for the 25 billion? Billy Bob Blow and Jane Blow, of course.

Little wonder voters are voting to “blow up the whole goddamn system” with a “human Molotov cocktail“. And why not, after all? It. Is. Corrupt.

Growing resentment

In Europe too there is an intensifying aura out there that is telling us that more politicians are about to get the message, loud and clear –and big time. The energy system in much of Europe has gotten dearly expensive, unstable and now poses a real and gathering threat to the jobs and livelihoods of millions in the working class. The citizenry has been deceived and screwed over by a climate science scam, and they are not going to take it much longer.

Already tens of thousands of highly skilled, well-paid workers in the automotive and energy industries in Germany alone are seeing their jobs get slashed. And they do have a means of delivering the second biggest FU in history – with a vote for Le Pen in France, or for the emerging hard right wing parties in Germany, Austria and elsewhere.

The biggest earners from the scam, according to the report and Spiegel, are the steel and iron industry, cement, refineries and petrochemicals – to name a few. They are closing down and moving out their operations, and getting paid to do so.

And the working class? They’re getting angry, yet being scolded for doing so — being cast out as “deplorables” or irredeemables”, or even far worse. This can’t and won’t continue.

 

Meddling! German Environment Ministry Donated Up To $5 Million To The Clintons In 3rd Quarter Of 2016!

We often hear claims from the media of how president-elect Donald Trump unfairly got help from Vladimir Putin and the Russians to win the election, and that it’s outrageous a foreign government would meddle with and influence the US political process. (Never mind these allegations continue to be based on practically nothing.)

bmu

Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment donated between $1 million and $5 million to the Clintons during the third quarter of 2016.

And just days ago Germany’s CDU and CSU parties issued a warning to Russia not to interfere with the affairs and political processes in other countries, especially as Germany prepares for next year’s national election.

Surprise: it turns out that if any country has been attempting to skew the US election, it is Germany itself.

The country’s Federal Ministry for the Environment, a powerful arm of the German government, is reported here to have made a donation to the tune of 1 – 5 million dollars to the Clinton Foundation in the third quarter of 2016, i.e. right at the very peak of the presidential campaign.

Daniel Wetzel at the online national daily Die Welt here reports:

According to a donor list from the ‘Clinton Foundation’ the Ministry transferred between 1 million and 5 million dollars.”

Wetzel asks:

Why does Germany have to finance the US election campaign?”

The donation has come under fire from critics — Wetzel writes — such as former parliamentarian Vera Langenfeld at her blog:

Why is a German federal ministry supporting the election campaign of an American candidate? Obviously the German taxpayers have to finance Hillary Clinton’s campaign without their knowledge of it.”

The Ministry, however, denies the charge of having meddled with the US election, stating that it “fundamentally does not make donations” and that the money was for financing projects “within the scope of international climate protection”.

However, the timing of the donation makes the appearance all the more dubious. During the campaign, Clinton was attacked massively by Trump for the huge and frequent donations coming from an array of outside special interests. Trump went on to accuse Clinton of being up for sale.

Overall the German government and press have been openly hostile to Donald Trump’s election victory. In the current Trump-German relations, it has to be said that Germany drew first blood by unfairly smearing Trump as a racist, misogynist and an out-of control rabble-rouser, and refusing to congratulate him or to give him a chance.

As it stands, there’s no reason for Trump to be extend the hand of friendship to the German government, or especially to the media. Germany enjoys a huge trade deficit with the USA and so don’t be surprised if Trump answers by luring German industry to America by offering lower taxes, less red tape and far cheaper energy. Already German electricity rates are approximately three times higher than those in USA.

New Paper: Human Climate Forcing ‘Below Detection’ … Deep Oceans Warm By ‘2°C Within 200 Years’ 100% Naturally

holocene-cooling-pacific-heat-content-rosenthal13-copy
Annotated graph from Rosenthal et al. (2013) illustrating the steep amplitude of natural variations in ocean heat

It has long been acknowledged by scientists that significant changes in deep ocean heat content have occurred in the past in the absence of changes or forcing from CO2.  Stott et al. (2007), for example, conclude that deep ocean temperatures rose by 2°C within a 2,000-year time span (19,000 to 17,000 years ago) about a 1,000 years before CO2 concentrations (and surface temperatures) began to rise.

Stott et al., 2007

Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P., leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.

Similarly,  Demezhko and Gornostaeva (2015) found that the heat energy change in the deep oceans during the climate transition from the last ice age to this current interglacial occurred “2-3 thousands of years” before the increases in surface temperature and CO2, and that “the increase of carbon dioxide may be a consequence [rather than a cause] of temperature increasing”.  The authors then acknowledge that this suggests that there was “no significant contribution of CO2 forcing to climatically caused heat flux and thus to the temperature increase during the Pleistocene-Holocene warming”.

Demezhko and Gornostaeva, 2015

Despite the substantial dispersion of CO2 estimations, a character and a chronology of CO2 concentration changes are much closer to temperature changes rather than to heat flux variations. It may mean no significant contribution of CO2 forcing to climatically caused heat flux and thus to the temperature increase during Pleistocene–Holocene warming. About 10 kyr BP the increase of carbon dioxide concentration was replaced by its fall which ended about 8 kyr BP. This local minimum [in CO2 concentration] is not consistent with either GST [ground surface temperature] or SHF [surface heat flux] histories.  … The reconstructed surface heat flux reflects impact of all possible sources of radiative forcing. In addition to solar insolation, greenhouse gases (such as CO2) can be a source of additional forcing. On the other hand the increase of carbon dioxide may be a consequence of temperature increasing. Comparing the chronology of surface flux, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration changes, we can draw some conclusions about the causes of climate change. …  The increase of carbon dioxide concentrations occurred 2–3 thousands of years later than the heat flux increase and synchronously with temperature response. 

Scientists Ellis and Palmer (2016) get right to the point and conclude CO2 plays “little or no” role in forcing the warming during interglacial periods…

Conclusion: [I]nterglacial warming is eccentricity and polar ice regrowth regulated, Great Summer forced, and dust-ice albedo amplified. And the greenhouse-gas attributes of CO2 play little or no part in this complex feedback system.

….while scientists Douglass and Knox (2014) identify the source of modern deep ocean temperature forcing that has an “unquestionably solar origin” manifested by El Niño/La Niña phenomena.

Global ocean temperature time series from the surface to depths of 2000 m since the year 2000 are found to agree in detail with those of other diverse climate indices. It is asserted that these systems are driven by a forcing unquestionably of solar origin that has two manifestations: (1) a direct phase-locked response to what is identified as a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yr for the whole time series; (2) a second phase-locked response at a period of two years or three years. With these findings it is becoming clear that the entire climate system is responding to the varying incident solar radiation… The most prominent manifestations of the pattern are found in the El Niño/La Niña phenomena.

Advocates of the assumption that CO2 variations are a primary cause of changes in deep ocean heat content (i.e., those who author government-sponsored IPCC reports and activists for the anthropogenic global warming cause) have necessarily believed that past natural variations in deep ocean heat content are very slow and gradual.  They have presumed that the forcing from Milankovitch cycles (changes in solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface due to orbital variations) are the cause of deep ocean changes over time, but that these changes occur only as slowly as orbital variations occur — on millennial scales (“several thousand years“), not in decades to centuries.  In this way, they can deny that the Sun plays a role in modern climate changes…despite burgeoning evidence to the contrary.  The Stott et al. (2007) finding that deep oceans warmed at a rate of 1°C/1,000 years referenced above would be consistent with these assumptions.

Brown University geologist Samantha Bova and her colleagues reach a different conclusion, however, in a paper just published online for the prestigious journal Geophysical Research Letters.  These scientists have found that, in the absence of any significant CO2 concentration changes or human influence during the Holocene (i.e., the last ~10,000 years), the deep oceans naturally warmed by more than 2°C in a span of just 200 years, which is several times the rate in which they are alleged to have warmed in the last ~60 years of the supposedly dominant anthropogenic influence on climate.  In fact, Bova et al. (2016) conclude that deep ocean temperature changes for the last 200 years are apparently so negligible they are “below the detection limits”.

Bova et al., 2016

Rapid variations in deep ocean temperature detected in the Holocene

The observational record of deep-ocean variability is short, which makes it difficult to attribute the recent rise in deep ocean temperatures to anthropogenic forcing. Here, we test a new proxy – the oxygen isotopic signature of individual benthic foraminifera – to detect rapid (i.e. monthly to decadal) variations in deep ocean temperature and salinity in the sedimentary record. We apply this technique at 1000 m water depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific during seven 200-year Holocene intervals. Variability in foraminifer δ18O over the past 200 years is below the detection limit [a change in ocean heat cannot be detected in the past 200 years], but δ18O signatures from two mid-Holocene intervals indicate [natural, unforced] temperature swings >2 °C within 200 years.

According to the IPCC (2013), 93% of the heat energy in the climate system claimed to be due to anthropogenic global warming is found in the oceans (AR5, Chapter 3).  Levitus et al. (2012) estimate that the heat energy change (converted to temperature) amounted to an increase of just +0.09°C between 1955 and 2010 in the upper 2000 meters of the ocean, or less than one-tenth of one degree over 55 years.

Levitus et al., 2012

The World Ocean accounts for approximately 93% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. … The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 1022 J (±2S.E.) [over 1955-2010] corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C.

Again, natural variation in ocean temperatures may reach amplitudes of + or – 1°C every 100 years without any external forcing from anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  So if 93% of the change forced by the alleged human climate influence  has only produced a temperature change of hundredths to tenths of a °C in the deep oceans since 1955, or since CO2 concentrations rose by about 75 parts per million (315 ppm in 1955 to 390 ppm in 2010), this would clearly indicate that it is extremely difficult if not effectively impossible to confidently attribute the practically imperceptible change in ocean temperature to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, or to CO2 in general.

More succinctly, if deep ocean temperatures can naturally rise by 1°C in 100 years without any change in CO2, then attributing changes in ocean temperature that are already “below the detection limit” for the last 200 years (or just ~0.1°C since 1955) to anthropogenic CO2 forcing is highly presumptuous at best.

And if 93% of the heat from “global warming” cannot be attributed to humans with any degree of confidence, then there is necessarily no such conceptualization of anthropogenic global warming that could be claimed to have been affirmed scientifically.  Effectively, if we cannot detect an anthropogenic signal in deep ocean heat data, anthropogenic global warming would necessarily be characterized as a belief, not a scientifically confirmed hypothesis.

Germany’s Mean Temperature For November 0.5°C Colder Than Normal As Cold Grips Europe

Cold weather is forecast to remain over much of Europe for the foreseeable future.

The 15-day forecast map for temperature at kachelmannwetter.com here shows what’s in store for Europe.

kachelmann-30_11_2016

It tells us that the continent will likely end the year on a cold note after having experienced a very warm September. Already vast areas on Europe have seen snow this fall. Parts of Scandinavia are expected to be brutally cold over the next 2 weeks.

November 2016 0.5°C colder than mean

Meanwhile Germany’s DWD National Weather Service reports here that the month of November 2016 in Germany had a mean of 3.9°C, which makes it 0.5°C colder than the 1981-2010 mean.

When compared to the 1961-1990 period — a cold time when scientists were warning of a coming ice age — November 2016 was 0.1°C cooler. The results are preliminary, and I would expect it to be adjusted downward later, as the last 2 days were far below normal.

The low for the month of -12.0° was recorded in the East German hills known as the Erzgebirge on November 14.

Germany’s southeastern neighbor of Austria saw a November that was 0.5°C above the 1981-2010 mean, but far below the November mean of last year (+2.6°C) and the year earlier (+3.6°C), the Austrian ZAMG weather service reports.

Harsh winter even in Nice?

Two days ago the French-language nicematin.com reported here that scientists warn of a possible bitter cold winter ahead:

Attention, the heavy snow in Siberia late this autumn could have powerful consequences for Europe down to the Côte d’Azur, like the winter of 1985.”

Nicematin.com cites a report appearing at Bloomberg from last week, which featured renowned MIT climatologist Judah Cohen. Cohen is the father of the “Siberian Snow Theory” and argues: “the more snow covering the ground in northern Eurasia, the colder we can expect it down below. Sadly, Siberia is looking pretty white already,” Bloomberg writes.

Nicematin.com adds:

If his calculations are right, we have to expect a particularly rigorous 2016-2017 winter, and that down to our latitudes.”

Already we see that the weather crystal balls have been running at full power. The weeks and months ahead will tell us more about their accuracy.

Medical “Consensus” Blown Apart… World’s Oldest Person Has Eaten More Than 0.1 MILLION Eggs In Her Life!

Remember how over much of the past few decades there was a broad consensus among doctors and the entire medical profession that foods high in saturated fats, like butter, chicken and eggs, boosted cholesterol and thus increased the risk of dangerous heart disease. Instead, the doctors told us, we should focus on a low-fat, high-carb diet. Avoid eggs, they advised us.

The result: tens of millions of heart attacks, premature deaths, and tens of millions of people with Type II diabetes. It is turning out to be one of the greatest scientific blunders (if not flat out frauds) of human history.

Fortunately doctors are finally beginning to back off from the egg-avoidance insanity.

Image: www.eggs.ca/nutrition/

The latest anecdote showing that the low-fat, high-carb diet is bogus comes with the news of Emma Morano, who today turned 117 today. She is thought to be the oldest person on the planet. A key to her long life, the BBC reports here, has been her daily intake of three eggs per day.

Ms Morano’s longevity, she admits, is partly down to genetics – her mother reached 91 and several sisters reached their centenary – and partly, she says, down to a rather unusual diet of three eggs – two raw – each day for more than 90 years.”

100,000 eggs consumed over lifetime

Three eggs a day over 90 years comes out to be 98,550 eggs. Add another couple thousand eggs for the earlier years and you easily get over 100,000 eggs consumed during her long life.

That’s a lot of cholesterol! And cholesterol that the quack doctors and their consensus said was killing millions of us and that we should consume sparingly. Obviously Ms. Morano’s health paid no attention to the consensus medical science, and did splendidly.

“Negligent” vegans

And then there are vegans, fanatics who vehemently claim we should not eat any animal-based foods at all and so make the consumption of nutritious eggs taboo. Fortunately not only Emma Morano has had the good sense to ignore “consensus” medical advice, but also some Italian politicians are getting serious about it, too. For example, according to treehugger.com here, Italian MP Elvira Savino is proposing jailing parents who force their children to follow a vegan diet. Savino believes that parents “should be prosecuted for imposing such ‘reckless and dangerous eating behavior’ on children 16 and under.”

Why? Treehugger reported:

Savino proposed the new law after learning about several recent and disturbing incidents involving negligent parents and inadequate nutrition for young children. In one case, a one-year-old boy in Milan, raised on a strict vegan diet and weighing only 5 kg (11 pounds) when taken from his parents, had to undergo emergency heart surgery; his calcium levels were at the lowest necessary to survive. Another toddler from Genoa spent days in pediatric care in a hospital due to vitamin deficiencies as a result of a vegan diet. Last year, a mother was ordered by an Italian court to cook meat for her 12-year-old son after his father complained that a vegan diet was stunting his growth.”

Many of us believe in Darwinism, but please do leave the kids out of it! If you wish to make your self ill thinking it’ll make you healthy and at the same time save the planet, be my guest. But don’t go imposing your dangerous nonsense on others.

Personally I changed my diet a couple of years ago and eggs have since become a major part of my nutrition. I now eat roughly 10-15 eggs per week. My blood values and overall health have improved immensely.

And now I might even boost that number, given the result we see from Senora Morano.

 

There Has Been No Significant Net Change In Arctic Sea Ice Extent In The Last 80+ Years

arctic-surface-temps-since-1920-copy

                                                                          Graph adapted from Climate4you

Last week, Edinburgh and Day (2016) used historical monitoring records to conclude that “the [Antarctic sea ice] levels in the early 1900s were in fact similar to today“.   Apparently this was a surprising finding for those who assume anthropogenic greenhouse gases largely determine net changes in polar sea ice.

Perhaps it may also be surprising for those who only focus on the 1979-to-present satellite era to learn that Arctic sea ice has also remained essentially unchanged since the 1930s and 1940s too, and is overall still quite high relative to recent centennial- and millennial-scale historical periods.  Even for the last few decades, the trends are not unusual.

For example, the IPCC referenced NOAA satellite data that extended back to 1972, not 1979, in the first UN report (1990).  It showed that there had been a slight increasing trend in sea ice for 1972-1990 due to the low extent recorded during the early 1970s, and the very high extent in the late 1970s, when the current satellite datasets begin.  Now, the IPCC (and NOAA, NSIDC) discard the 1972-1978 data from the sea ice record, instead using 1979 as the starting point, or the year with the highest sea ice extent since the early 20th century.  This way, the decline in sea ice extent to the present can be steepened considerably in modern graphics.

IPCC FAR (1990):

arctic-sea-ice-1972-1990

Between 1990 and 2006, Arctic sea ice declined rapidly.  Since 2006, however, the sea ice decline has undergone a pause, as shown in NSIDC data (using WoodForTrees.org interactive graphs):

arctic-sea-ice-1990-2006-pause-2006-2016-copy

                                                   Graph generated using WoodForTrees.org

Including the 1972-1978 trend with the 1979-2016 anomaly data (with added trend line) looks like this:

University of Illinois graph:

arctic-sea-ice-anomaly-1979-2016-copy

For the early 20th century, there was a dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice between the 1920s and 1940s that was concomitant with the as-warm-as-present Arctic surface temperatures (top graph).  After this abrupt warming trend ended, the Arctic cooled for several decades and a subsequent increase in sea ice occurred through the late 1970s.  Hoffert and Flanney (1985) furnish a graph with recorded sea ice trends for 1920-1975.

Hoffert and Flannery, 1985

Introduction: As described m ore fully in the accompanying state-o f-the-art report on the Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide (see Chapter 4 by Wigley et al. 1985), there is no clear indication of a monotonic warming over this period [1880-1980], as would be anticipated from the observed build up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Instead, these data sets indicate a complex picture including interannual variability and, perhaps, some systematic trends. Indeed, the global temperatures seem to have increased from 1885- 1935, and the extent of Arctic sea ice decreased from 1925-1945. This was followed, however, by a leveling off and then a subsequent decrease in temperature.

arctic-sea-ice-1920-1975

If we were to add the IPCC’s 1972-1990 trend data to the Hoffert and Flannery (1985) graph of the early 20th century, we would see a clear oscillatory pattern in Arctic sea ice (below), not a linear trend that aligns with the increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  In fact, Arctic sea ice experienced a rather steep recovery from the 1940s lows to the late 1970s highs, during the same period that anthropogenic CO2 emissions rates were quadrupling in intensity.   The pause in Arctic sea ice decline (since 2006) also does not correlate with the rapid increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions during this period.

arctic-sea-ice-1920-1990

Extending the sea ice record back centuries, we also see that there is nothing unusual about the recent Arctic sea ice extent changes.

Zhang et al., 2015

ntz-arctic-sea-ice-late-holocene-human-influence

Durantou et al., 2012

Sea surface temperature [Arctic Ocean] between ∼ AD 1885–1935 are warmer by up to 3°C with respect to the average modern temperature at the coring site. For the period ∼ AD 1887–1945, reconstructed sea ice cover values are on average 8.3 months per year which is 1.1 months per year lower than the modern values.

holocene-cooling-arctic-ocean-durantou12-sst-sia

Moore et al., 2001

Summer temperatures at Donard Lake [Canadian Arctic] over the past 1250 yrs averaged 2.9 °C.  At the beginning of the 13th century, Donard Lake experienced one of the largest climatic transitions in over a millennium. Average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly 2 °C from 1195–1220 AD [+0.80 C per decade], ending in the warmest decade in the record (~4.3 °C).    A dramatic warming event is seen around the same time (~1160 AD) in a tree-ring width record from Fennoscandia (Briffa et al., 1990). The rapid warming at Donard Lake was followed by a period of extended warmth, with average summer temperatures of 3.4 °C. This time of warm summer temperatures corresponds to the period when Thule Inuit moved into the Canadian Arctic from Alaska using open boats and hunting whale. A ~150–200 yr period of increased temperature around the same time is also seen in historical records of mild conditions allowing the expansion of settlements in Greenland (McGovern, 1991), and radiocarbon-dated records of glacial advance and retreat from numerous glaciers throughout the Kenai peninsula in Alaska (Wiles & Calkin, 1995), as well as humifaction records from Irish peat bogs (Blackford & Chambers, 1995).

holocene-cooling-canadian-arctic-moore-01-copy

H.H. Lamb (1982) “Climate, History, and the Modern World” (book)

arctic-sea-ice-iceland-since-mwp-1975-copy

Ran et al., 2010

arctic-sea-ice-iceland-1903-2006-ran-10

Finally, many scientists acknowledge that Arctic sea ice trends are naturally determined, and anthropogenic CO2 emissions have little to do with decadal-scale variations.  Below are just a few examples.

Ohashi and Tanaka, 2010

Since the decadal variation of the AO is recognized as the natural variability of the global atmosphere, it is shown that both of decadal variabilities before and after 1989 in the Arctic can be mostly explained by the natural variability of the AO not by the external response due to the human activity.

Sha et al., 2016

Solar forcing as an important trigger for West Greenland sea-ice variability over the last millennium … Here, we use diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core collected from the West Greenland shelf to reconstruct changes in sea-ice cover over the last millennium. The proxy-based reconstruction demonstrates a generally strong link between changes in sea-ice cover and solar variability during the last millennium. Weaker (or stronger) solar forcing may result in the increase (or decrease) in sea-ice cover west of Greenland. In addition, model simulations show that variations in solar activity not only affect local sea-ice formation, but also control the sea-ice transport from the Arctic Ocean through a sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism.

Parker and Ollier, 2015

A better understanding of the future climate pattern developments in the Arctic may only follow a better reconstruction of the past patterns of natural oscillations and the determination of the forcing and the resulting oscillations occurred in the climate parameters over different time scales. The proposed information for the past demonstrates the Walsh & Chapman reconstruction claiming a flat sea ice 1870 to 1950 is too simple. The Arctic sea ice experienced a drastic reduction that was phased with warming temperatures 1923 to 1940. This reduction was followed by a sharp cooling and sea ice recovery. This permits us to also conclude that very likely the Arctic sea ice extent also has a quasi-60 years’ oscillation. The recognition of a quasi-60 year’s oscillation in the sea ice extent of the Arctic similar to the oscillation of the temperatures and the other climate indices may permit us to separate the natural from the anthropogenic forcing of the Arctic sea ice. The heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere may have much stronger influence on the climate patterns on Earth including the Arctic sea ices than has been thought.

Lessen and Thejll, 2005

Multi-decadal variation of the East Greenland Sea-Ice Extent: AD 1500-2000 … The extent of ice in the North Atlantic varies in time with time scales stretching to centennial, and the cause of these variations is discussed. We consider the Koch ice index which describes the amount of ice sighted from Iceland, in the period 1150 to 1983 AD. This measure of ice extent is a non-linear and curtailed measure of the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea, but gives an overall view of the amounts of ice there through more than 800 years.  [W]e find that the recently reported retreat of the ice in the Greenland Sea  may be related to the termination of the so-called Little Ice Age in the early twentieth century. We also look at the approximately 80 year variability of the Koch [sea ice] index and compare it to the similar periodicity found in the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate. … The ’low frequency oscillation’ that dominated the ice export through the Fram Strait as well as the extension of the sea-ice in the Greenland Sea and Davis Strait in the twentieth century may therefore be regarded as part of a pattern that has existed through at least four centuries. The pattern is a natural feature, related to varying solar activity. The considerations of the impact of natural sources of variability on arctic ice extent are of relevance for concerns that the current withdrawal of ice may entirely be due to human activity. Apparently, a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence.

Climate Professor Says German Climate Science Hyped By Sloppy, Politically Corrupted Media!

German Klagermauer TV here shows a recent presentation made by veteran climatologist Prof. Dr. Werner Kirstein, in the lead up to the Marrakesh climate conference.

kirstein-presentation-2

Prof. Dr. Werner Kirstein calls climate protection a form of populism where governments hope to garner praise for their climate protection efforts. Image cropped from Klagemauer TV.

Kirstein has become an outspoken critic of the manmade global warming science. In his presentation, he explains in layman terms how the climate system works and why the often ballyhooed climate catastrophe is mostly “media propaganda”.

At the start, the 40-year climate science veteran explains how today’s climate is nothing unusual when taken in a historical context, and shows that previous interglacials were even warmer than the current one. Climate is a highly variable system and changes, even sudden ones, are nothing unusual. Another point he makes while explaining climate history is that CO2 rises always followed temperature rises, and not vice versa. Over history there has been very little correlation between CO2 concentration and global temperature.

Warming today not surprising, mostly natural

Kirstein maintains that the warming over the past decades has been mostly due to natural causes associated with the climb out of the Little Ice Age, and therefore is not surprising.

At the 17-minute mark he slams the greenhouse heat trapping theory, as it is taught today. Kirstein says the CO2 acts to diffuse long wave radiation from the earth and that the heat should appear at the mid to the upper troposphere, and not the earth’s surface. He says that the greenhouse effect as presented to the public has already been theoretically refuted and “falsified” by Tscheuchner and Gerlich.

At the 19-minute mark he says that there is indeed a greenhouse effect, but not the sort that heats the climate. Rather CO2 has a greening effect, as it serves as food for plants and in this aspect is positive for the planet. Plants grow optimally when concentrations are quadrupled (for C3 plants).

Observations have diverged from model projections

At the 25;20 mark Kirstein looks at the global warming temperature projections for the future, and says global temperatures have fallen way short of these projections. In the presentation he slams Al Gore for cherry-picking and inappropriately and unrealistically extrapolating trends out into the future when knowing full well that the chaotic climate system in fact doesn’t behave that way.

Media has hyped climate change

Professor Kirstein also criticizes the media for hyping the natural climate changes, reminding viewers that earlier they had warned in the 1970s of a coming ice age, before turning on a dime a decade later and predicting a sea level rise that would soon submerge half of the Cologne Cathedral. “They were making people crazy with it.” He adds at the 34:30 mark that the German media has lost credibility on the subject.

2°C target is nonsense

At the 32:30 mark he calls the 2°C target set by policymakers “nonsense”. Also the claims made by the German media that the Sahara Desert is expanding get refuted by Kirstein when he shows at the 35:50 mark how the Sahara is in fact shrinking. Kirstein slams a variety of tricks that the media use to mislead viewers.

At the 40:00 mark Kirstein presents a chart of Germany’s mean temperature over the past 28 years and asks where the warming is. The trend is behaving opposite to what was projected to happen!

kirstein-presentation-3

Germany has not seen any warming in 3 decades! Chart: Josef Kowatsch, image from Klagemauer TV.

According to Kirstein, “Not a single model predicted the cooling of the last decade.”

At 44:00 Kirstein explains that climate has to be observed for minimum 30 years, better 50, or even 100, before one can draw conclusions. Making claims on events that occur over a period of only a few years “is a joke”, he says.

Some methods “bordering on fraud”

Later he shows that weather extremes such as cyclones show no trend. “No significant statistical trend at al over the past 40 years.” He labels “unserious scientific methods” used by climatologists as being “marginal in the least, at times false, and some even bordering on fraud.”

He slams German ZDF television at 50:00 for sloppy reporting in their failure to properly research sea level rise as related to tectonic plate movement in a show on sea level rise for Micronesia broadcast in 2009. Throughout the presentation Kirstein dispels of one media climate panic scenario after another — everything from polar bears in the Arctic to sea ice at the South Pole. The media often present future scenarios as fact and so misinform their audiences.

At the end Kirstein blasts how the state controlled media has in effect politicized the science. He says climate protection is now a form of populism where governments hope to garner praise for their climate protection efforts. At the end he quotes Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark: “It has nothing to do with science”.

 

Leading Skeptic Voice Exposes Man-Made Climate Change As Propaganda, Modern-Day Witchcraft

There are a few dozen very high profile climate science skeptics/dissidents who are constantly in the cross hairs of the alarmist climate  activists, and Marc Morano is certainly near the top of the list among them.

97-percent-consensus-crumbling

Leading climate science skeptic says science underpinning man-made global warming and consensus are crumbling to pieces before our eyes. Image cropped from documentary The Climate Hustle.

Long a festering thorn in the side of climate activists, Morano is often seen bringing his message to the public through the national news media, and is often the object of vicious attacks, something he seems to relish.

He was prominently featured in the powerful climate skeptic documentary film “The Climate Hustle,” which focused the public’s attention on the widespread scientific inaccuracies plaguing climate science, how the scientific consensus is crumbling, and how global warming is just dogma.

Recently he gave a speech at the 2016 Energy Summit where he says that global warming is just the latest in a string of earlier scares that never came to pass. In his speech he describes the hostile environment that climate science skeptics face, where they are equated to Holocaust deniers who need to be prosecuted and jailed.

The former aide to US senator James Inhofe says the often-heard claim of a 97% consensus was pulled out of thin air, but has been repeated over and over again by mainstream media. He reminds that a number of leading scientists have reversed their positions on man-made climate science, saying:

You find not only is there no consensus, huge numbers of scientists are openly skeptical.”

Moreover, climate has become less severe, in fact.

Later in the speech he calls IPCC science government-bought and that it is a “political body posing as a scientific institution“. On how science is being exaggerated to spread fear, Morano debunks the claim, citing a leading extreme weather expert (15:00):

On every single metric of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, not only are they not increasing or staying stable, they are actually decreasing on climate scales.”

He points out that the climate warming is still in its pause, despite the recent warm year. Morano then equates climate science to modern day witchcraft as politicians claim their policies impact the weather — as if to say that the more regulation and taxes that get imposed, the better the weather will get. And should the weather remain bad, then it simply means that regulation and taxes need to be even higher.

Morano says policymakers have become so zealous with climate change that they no longer care if the science is right or not, and that what matters is more regulation. The situation is urgent and there’s no time for more debate, they claim.

Wackiness knows no limits

He then mocks the notion that CO2 has “poisoned” our weather, and no matter what happens, it’s global warming’s fault – comparing the hysteria to Moslems blaming yoyos for bad weather back in 1933.

He ridicules how studies have claimed an increase in both opposite extremes: more drought/less drought, more malaria/less malaria, more snow/less snow, less rain/more rain, etc.. No matter what happens, they’ll claim they predicted it. The wackiness in climate science knows no limits. Overall global warming is good for bad, and bad for good. “Global warming caused Hitler, global warming saved Hitler.”

Later in the speech, Morano describes climate science as a religion, cult-like, where anyone challenging it is labelled a heretic and could face suffering in the afterlife. He then calls the father of modern global warming movement, NASA’s James Hansen, “a hardcore ideological activist”.

Morano ends by pleading for a return to sanity, reminding us that “acts of the U.N. and the U.S. Congress or EPA cannot control the climate or weather“.

He says what is needed is a defunding of the EPA and UN and to not sign any UN climate treaty.

Irish Fury And Fierce European Opposition To Ugly Wind Turbines Mount Across Europe

Here at this blog I’ve written often over Germany’s wind energy follies and the mounting opposition to the construction of wind parks. In fact over 300 citizens initiatives against wind energy have sprouted across Germany alone so far.

The reasons for the exploding resistance are many and include destruction of forests, death to wildlife, blighting of the landscape, infrasound causing illnesses, high costs, technical inadequacy and grid instability, to name some. Probably no other product on the planet delivers so much misery for so little common benefit.

Wind energy opposition site “StopTheseThings” writes a couple of reports coming from Europe, which tell us of growing opposition to and serious health problems from wind energy. We are now witnessing how a rogue industry is well past its heyday.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that wind energy has gone from being welcome with open arms, to being furiously opposed. then only things keeping it afloat is special interest, junk science and corruption.

insomnia

Europe’s citizens getting sick and tired of wind energy, and now even furious. Source: StopTheseThings.

The first here is a report on how the Irish are becoming fed up and furious, and are now demanding an end to “pointless, subsidised wind power”.

The article writes how the industry had been used to getting its way by bulldozing over and marginalizing  opposition and corrupting officials. But that strategy seems to be backfiring now, as StopTheseThings writes that “communities are as angry, if not angrier, than ever about the manner in which wind power outfits have ridden roughshod over their basic human rights – such as the right to sleep, live in and otherwise enjoy their family homes, free from incessant turbine generated low-frequency noise and infrasound – aided and abetted by a political ‘system’ that can be described as ‘crony capitalism’… ”

Recently there was a “monster Dublin protest” where “the leaders of community defence groups from all over Ireland descended on the Dáil Éireann to drive home their message – that wind power is a failed experiment and that these things do not work on any level: social, economic or environmental“.

In Finland StopTheseThings reports here how late last year a comprehensive report was released by the National Association of Citizens Against Giant Windmills warning that wind turbines near residential areas lead to serious health issues. For the report the experiences of 55 people concerning the health impacts were examined. The result: “Out of these 55 people, 33 suffer from sleep disturbances, 26 from ear problems, 23 from headache, 17 from nausea, 11 from heart problems and 11 from inertia“.

The wind industry is facing serious head winds.

 

Analysis: Adding More Solar, Wind Power Increases Dependence On Fossil Fuels, ‘Doubles’ CO2 Emissions

As the reputed world leader in green energy policy, Germany plans to eliminate nuclear power as an energy source in the next 5 years.

2011 decision to phase out nuclear power by 2022  has meant that renewables like wind and solar power are expected to swiftly take the place of nuclear energy on the German power grid.  The portion of Germany’s power generation from wind and solar (renewables) has indeed risen dramatically in the last 10 years:

germany-power-generation-source-2015-copy
                                           Image  source  (cleanenergywire.org)

Germany’s “green” leadership and vociferous allegiance to renewables as a dominant power generation source has elicited controversy.   Wind and solar are very labor- and material-intensive (expensive) energy sources, and the dramatic rise in solar and wind power capacity has come with great financial expense to German citizens.  Poorer households have long been the most adversely affected.  Dating back to 2000, electricity prices have risen by 80% in Germany, leaving 7 million citizens “energy poor” (meaning that more than 10% of their income has to be spent on heating and electrifying their homes).

Analysis by the European Commission indicates that “nearly 11% of the EU’s population [encompassing 54 million people] are in a situation where they live in  households in which they find themselves unable to heat their homes at an affordable cost,” which may effectively put their lives at risk.   This latter point is not an exaggeration.  In the UK, where heating costs rose 63% between 2009 and 2014, 25% of citizens over 60 are classified as “energy poor”, leaving the elderly population especially vulnerable.  During the frigid winter of 2014, the number of “excess winter deaths” reached 49,260, of which about 14,780  were due to people living in cold homes that they couldn’t afford to heat.

And despite the steep, expensive rise in power generated by renewables since about 2000, Germany still obtained about 44% of its power from coal as of 2014, which is a higher share than in the United States (33% as of 2015).  Hundreds of U.S. coal plants have been shuttered in recent years largely because of a monumental nation-wide shift to natural gas power generation, a cleaner fuel that emits much less CO2 upon combustion than does coal.

(In the U.S., in fact, there has been a 12% decline in overall CO2 emissions since 2005 despite the fact that the U.S population has risen by 30 million during those 10 years.  As mentioned above, much of the decline in emissions is directly connected to the rapid displacement of coal with natural gas power generation.  While the rise in U.S. solar power has also been substantial in the last decade, “for every ton of carbon dioxide cut by solar power, hydraulic fracturing for natural gas cut 13 tons.”)

Germany’s heavy reliance on coal — the highest in the EU —  is very likely to continue indefinitely despite the nation’s stated commitments to the Paris Agreement and CO2 emissions reductions.  The much lower power-generating capabilities of renewables due to their intermittent output (the Sun has to shine and the wind must blow) has meant that reliable backup capacity — fossil fuels or nuclear — must remain on the grid.  Since nuclear power is set to be phased out of Germany by 2022, coal necessarily has to stay, even expand.  The natural consequence is that Germany’s CO2 emissions have not declined since 2009, and instead there has been a slight emissions uptick in recent years, as the dramatic increase in renewables has not come close to offsetting the greater CO2 emissions generated from the renewed German emphasis on coal.

Adding More Wind And Solar Power Ultimately Raises CO2 Emissions, As More Fossil Fuel Backup Capacity Must Be Built

What’s happening in Germany is, unfortunately, a bellwether for what is to come in other large wealthy countries attempting to make renewables the kingpin of their power grids.  The unspoken truth about renewables was succinctly summarized in a 2012 Los Angeles Times analysis :

“As more solar and wind generators come online, … the demand will rise for more backup power from fossil fuel plants.”

The full article, entitled “Rise in renewable energy will require more use of fossil fuels”  also points out that wind turbines often produce a tiny fraction (1 percent?) of their claimed potential, meaning the gap must be filled by fossil fuels:

Wind provided just 33 megawatts of power statewide in the midafternoon, less than 1% of the potential from wind farms capable of producing 4,000 megawatts of electricity.
As is true on many days in California when multibillion-dollar investments in wind and solar energy plants are thwarted by the weather, the void was filled by gas-fired plants like the Delta Energy Center.
One of the hidden costs of solar and wind power — and a problem the state is not yet prepared to meet — is that wind and solar energy must be backed up by other sources, typically gas-fired generators. As more solar and wind energy generators come online, fulfilling a legal mandate to produce one-third of California’s electricity by 2020, the demand will rise for more backup power from fossil fuel plants.

Another observational analysis suggests that much of the power generation thought to be attributed to wind actually came from backup sources, or fossil fuels:

“More than half the electric generation nominally credited to wind power is actually produced by fossil fuels, mostly natural gas.”

Analysis from a recently published resource management paper suggests that overall CO2 emissions will actually double in the next 16 years (by 2032) in Canada (Ontario) as more wind and solar capacity is added.  Wind and solar require reliable backup when the Sun isn’t shining and/or the wind isn’t blowing…and fossil fuel energies (natural gas, coal) are the reliable backup(s) of choice.

Why Will Emissions Double as We Add Wind and Solar Plants?  [pg. 15]

Wind and Solar require flexible backup generation.  Nuclear is too inflexible to backup renewables without expensive engineering changes to the reactors.  Flexible electric storage is too expensive at the moment. Consequently natural gas provides the backup for wind and solar in North AmericaWhen you add wind and solar you are actually forced to reduce nuclear generation to make room for more natural gas generation to provide flexible backup.
Ontario currently produces electricity at less than 40 grams of CO2 emissions/kWh. Wind and solar with natural gas backup produces electricity at about 200 grams of CO2 emissions/kWh. Therefore adding wind and solar to Ontario’s grid drives CO2 emissions higher.
From 2016 to 2032 as Ontario phases out nuclear capacity to make room for wind and solar, CO2 emissions will double (2013 LTEP data).  In Ontario, with limited economic hydro and expensive storage, it is mathematically impossible to achieve low CO2 emissions at reasonable electricity prices without nuclear generation.

Scientists Increasingly Conclude Global-Scale Renewables-Driven Power Supply Will Never Happen

Scientists have increasingly weighed in on the vacuousness of the current emphasis on renewable energy generation.  For example…

Solar power is a “non-sustainable energy sink” and “will not help in any way to replace the fossil fuel” even though “many people believe renewable energy sources to be capable of substituting fossil or nuclear energy.”

Ferroni and Hopkirk, 2016

Abstract: Many people believe renewable energy sources to be capable of substituting fossil or nuclear energy. However there exist very few scientifically sound studies, which apply due diligence to substantiating this impression. … The main reasons are due to the fact that on one hand, solar electricity is very material-intensive, labour-intensive and capital-intensive and on the other hand the solar radiation exhibits a rather low power density.
Conclusion: [A]n electrical supply system based on today’s PV [photovoltaic] technologies cannot be termed an energy source, but rather a non-sustainable energy sink … [I]t has become clear that photovoltaic energy at least will not help in any way to replace the fossil fuel.

For wind and solar, the “energy return on energy invested falls, and environmental costs rise” as more wind and solar power capacity is added.

Moriarty and Honnery, 2016

Highlights: We argue it is unlikely that RE [renewable energy] can meet existing global energy use.
The most important RE [renewable energy] sources, wind and solar energy, are also intermittent, necessitating major energy storage as these sources increase their share of total energy supply. We show that estimates for the technical potential of RE [renewable energy] vary by two orders of magnitude, and argue that values at the lower end of the range must be seriously considered, both because their energy return on energy invested falls, and environmental costs rise, with cumulative output.

The “numbers just don’t add up” to curtail world temperatures with wind and solar, and thus our current efforts “will almost surely fail.”

Jones and Warner, 2016

Efforts to curtail world temps will almost surely fail
The Texas A&M researchers modelled the projected growth in global population and per capita energy consumption, as well as the size of known reserves of oil, coal and natural gas, and greenhouse gas emissions to determine just how difficult it will be to achieve the less-than-2 degree Celsius warming goal.  “It would require rates of change in our energy infrastructure and energy mix that have never happened in world history and that are extremely unlikely to be achieved,” explains Jones.   “Just considering wind power, we found that it would take an annual installation of 485,000 5-megawatt wind turbines by 2028. The equivalent of about 13,000 were installed in 2015. That’s a 37-fold increase in the annual installation rate in only 13 years to achieve just the wind power goal,” adds Jones.  Similar expansion rates are needed for other renewable energy sources.  “To even come close to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, 50 percent of our energy will need to come from renewable sources by 2028, and today it is only 9 percent, including hydropower. For a world that wants to fight climate change, the numbers just don’t add up to do it.”

Considering the inevitable increases in CO2 emissions (due to the need for fossil fuel backup),  the potential health hazards and exponentially-growing financial burden shouldered by the world’s (mostly poor) citizens, the impossibility of supplanting fossil fuels in power generation…associated with an intentioned global-scale increase in renewable energy in the coming decades, one needs to ask: Are renewables like wind and solar even worth it?

Germany Aims To “Throttle” Wind Energy To Avert Grid Overloading …Branch In Uncertainty

Germany’s national business daily Wirtschaftswoche here reports that the country’s Economic Minister/Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel aims implement a plan that will throttle the expansion of north Germany’s onshore wind parks — due to the fact that rapid building is “overloading the power grid”.

Windpark Niedersachsen

Photo: wind park in Lower Saxony, Philip May, CC BY-SA 3.0.

This will impact the northern states of Schleswig Holstein, Mecklenburg Western Pomerania and northern Lower Saxony.

Wirtschaftswoche writes that the planned scale-back will profoundly hit the three northern states because they will receive support for only 902 megawatts of power capacity each year– far below the 1300 MW installed just in Schleswig-Holstein in 2014.

This limitation will be a major blow to the German wind industry, which is already reeling from uncertainty in the branch.

The measure is part of this year’s reforms to the German EEG renewable energy feed in act and will be enacted without needing Parliamentary approval, Weltwoche writes. According to the draft measure:

Power grid expansion is not keeping pace with the growth in renewable energies.”

In northern Germany wind parks are often shut down because there still does not exist enough grid power transmission capacity to deliver the power to the industrial markets to the south where demand is big.

The measure is expected to go into effect on March 1, 2017 and stay in effect until the end of 2020 – a period of four years.

The Weltwoche writes that the German greens and renewable energy lobbyists are angered by the upcoming move, claiming that the German government is putting climate protection in doubt and that it should focus on preventing coal and nuclear power from clogging up the power grid.

While Germany expresses bold intentions to make a rapid transition to renewable energies, it is in fact scaling them back.

 

University of Victoria: Eurasian Cold Waves Not Influenced By Arctic Sea Ice Melt!

University of Victoria: Eurasian Cold Wave Not Influenced By Arctic Sea Ice Melt

The climate discussion between the two different fronts had ground to a halt for a long time. Nobody wanted to or could talk to the other. Luckily that has improved a bit as of late. Potsdam scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, a hardcore follower of the extreme climate-alarmism line, has addressed the topics of our “Die kalte Sonne” book twice, and just recently at Realclimate.

That’s welcome as it shows that a sort of  discussion is taking place. Of course it still remains disappointing when one closely follows the line of argumentation by “stefan”.

His chart with the solar curve is purposely started AFTER the strong increase in solar activity during the first half of the 20th century, thus hiding the enormous increase from those who read quickly. He lets his temperature curve abruptly end at the highest point of the El Nino, even though at the time of publication on 14 November 2016 the El Nino event had been completely over and the temperature has since returned to normal values. Here the Potsdam scientist craftily selects a 12-month smoothing. More transparent would have been a 36-month smoothing. So, what remains is the monkey business of making sure to profit as much as possible from the recent El Nino. From a climate point of view, it makes absolutely no sense. Thus it’s little wonder that fellow scientists are increasingly distancing themselves from Rahmstorf.

Another example is the harsh cold that gripped Germany just a few years ago and so obviously did not fit at all the global warming climate narrative. Rahmstorf quickly concocted an explanation and claimed with as much media fanfare as possible that the cold winters were related to disappearing Arctic sea ice – and so ultimately were connected to climate warming.

Papers dismiss Potsdam cold winter – Arctic sea ice theory

The concept was immediately dismissed by the climate warming establishment as we reported here. A group led by Kelly McCusker also dismissed it in a paper published in October 2016 in Nature Geoscience. The scientists modelled the Central Eurasian winter temperatures for the past 600 years and were unable to find a relationship with sea ice. The cold waves have much more to do with climate internal fluctuations.

The scientists write in the abstract:

Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss
Surface air temperature over central Eurasia decreased over the past twenty-five winters at a time of strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing and Arctic amplification. It has been suggested that this cooling was related to an increase in cold winters due to sea-ice loss in the Barents–Kara Sea. Here we use over 600 years of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations to isolate the effect of Arctic sea-ice loss, complemented with a 50-member ensemble of atmosphere–ocean global climate model simulations allowing for external forcing changes (anthropogenic and natural) and internal variability. In our atmosphere-only simulations, we find no evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss having impacted Eurasian surface temperature. In our atmosphere–ocean simulations, we find just one simulation with Eurasian cooling of the observed magnitude but Arctic sea-ice loss was not involved, either directly or indirectly. Rather, in this simulation the cooling is due to a persistent circulation pattern combining high pressure over the Barents–Kara Sea and a downstream trough. We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents–Kara Sea since the 1980s. These results improve our knowledge of high-latitude climate variability and change, with implications for our understanding of impacts in high-northern-latitude systems.”

And how did the German media take on the important result? Just a few years ago they had energetically reported on the Rahmstorf model. Sad: In the press pure silence reigned.

Also another paper by Chafik et al. is important here. It appeared in October 2016 in the Geophysical Research Letters. Also here the natural cycles of the North Atlantic climate was again shown — and negated the relationships between the Arctic sea ice melts and the European cold waves:

Global linkages originating from decadal oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic
The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold European winters. Recently, variations in this heat transport have also been reported to covary with global warming slowdown/acceleration periods via a Pacific climate response. We here examine the role of SPNA temperature variability in this Atlantic-Pacific climate connectivity. We find that the evolution of ocean heat content anomalies from the subtropics to the subpolar region, likely due to ocean circulation changes, coincides with a basin-wide Atlantic warming/cooling. This induces an Atlantic-Pacific sea surface temperature seesaw, which in turn, strengthens/weakens the Walker circulation and amplifies the Pacific decadal variability that triggers pronounced global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. We conclude that the decadal oceanic variability in the SPNA is an essential component of the tropical interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.”

 

The Sun-Climate Connection: Over 100 Scientific Papers From 2016 Link Solar Forcing To Climate Change

In 2014, there were at least 93 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in scientific journals affirming the Sun’s influential role in climate change.

In 2015, there were at least 95 scientific papers affirming the Sun-Climate link.

Already in 2016, there have been over 100 papers (107 to date) published in science journals affirming the link between solar forcing and climate change.  The list of papers and brief excerpts (from the abstracts, introductions, and/or conclusions) is provided below.

The Sun’s Influence On Climate: ‘Settled’ Science?

It has long been claimed that the science is “settled”, that the Sun’s role in climate change is negligible at best.

The Sun no longer causes net global-scale changes in deep ocean heat.  Humans do that now.   By emitting carbon dioxide, it is claimed that humans have predominantly caused (or will cause) net global-scale changes in precipitation, extreme weather events (hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods…), water vapor, clouds, sea level, and, of course, atmospheric and surface temperatures.   According to some interpretations (i.e., NASA’s Gavin Schmidt), the IPCC apparently estimates that the anthropogenic attribution to climate change is essentially 100% (or more), and the Sun’s influence in forcing net changes in the climate system is effectively zero.

Of course, a 0% attribution for solar forcing assumes that we presently know enough already about the Sun and how it influences terrestrial climate change and ocean heat flux.   It assumes that we are and have been accurately calculating the response of the climate system to variations in absorbed solar heat energy, and that we are and have been accurately measuring absorbed solar heat energy.  It assumes there is little uncertainty and there are no consequential errors in our reconstructions and modeling of solar radiative forcing over time (or recently).

The popularized insistence by advocates that a 100% attribution for anthropogenic climate forcing is “settled” science necessarily implies that skepticism concerning the claim that there is effectively no Sun-Climate link is unwarranted and antagonistically feckless.   Those who do dare question the profundity of our present scientific knowledge of the Sun-Climate link deserved to be ridiculed, marginalized, and compared to Holocaust deniers.

Fortunately, there are still some scientists willing to admit that we still don’t know all that much about the Sun’s role in climate change.  For example, Dhomse et al. (2016) acknowledge that the Sun’s role in climate change is still “an open scientific question” due to the immense difficulties in accurately quantifying the Sun’s influence.

Dhomse et al., 2016

[T]here are still large [uncertainties] in current observational and meteorological reanalysis datasets, so accurate quantification of the influence of solar flux variability on the climate system remains an open scientific question.

And below, there are literally hundreds of scientists who have dared to continue trying to disentangle the Sun’s role in climate changes — and who have wound up finding robust connections.  Perhaps someday the IPCC will consider scientific papers like these in their reports rather than continue to operate on the presupposition that our scientific knowledge of the Sun’s role in climate change is not only substantial, but sufficient.

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2016 Scientific Papers Linking The Sun To Climate Changes (100+)

1.  Sánchez-Sesma, 2016       [W]e found that, on one side, the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity, and, on the other side, the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years.
2.  Yamakawa et al., 2016       This study attempted to determine the relationships between solar activity and SST. Instrumental data from 1901 to 2011 revealed a significant positive relationship on a global basis. … The analysis of the relationship between variations in solar activity and SST from 1901 to 2011 indicated that sunspot numbers and SST were positively correlated in wide areas, with statistically significant positive correlations in many regions…. Analyses of the relationships between solar activity and the Earth’s climate system also revealed relationships between variations in solar activity and circulation in the troposphere. It is worthy of note that the highest coefficients at a 29-month lag were found in the relationships both between SSN [sunspot number] and PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation], and SSN and CP El Niño with statistical significance at the 99% confidence level, respectively.
3.  Luening and Vahrenholt, 2016       The amplitude of the observed temperature fluctuations is often more than 1°C and thus has a similar or even greater range than the warming that has occurred since the Little Ice Age. Furthermore, many of these Holocene, natural climate fluctuations show the same level of abruptness as the 20th-century warming. A common characteristic of many of the documented millennial climate fluctuations is their good match with solar activity changes, as well as a North Atlantic climate record by Bond et al. (2001). Besides solar activity changes, internal millennial ocean cycles may have contributed to the observed climate oscillations.
4.  de Larminat, 2016       [T]he recent anthropogenic contribution is found to be less than the contribution of solar activity. Reflecting the predominance of internal variability in the error output, the natural contribution (solar and volcanic activities, plus internal variability) becomes clearly much greater than the anthropogenic contribution in the recent warming.
5.  Harde, 2016       Including solar and cloud effects as well as all relevant feedback processes our simulations give an equilibrium climate sensitivity of CS = 0.7 °C (temperature increase at doubled CO2) and a solar sensitivity of SS = 0.17 °C (at 0.1 % increase of the total solar irradiance). Then CO2 contributes 40 % and the Sun 60 % to global warming over the last century.
6.  Bonomo et al., 2016       The calcareous nannofossil assemblages as well as their diversity index are modulated by oscillation in solar activity, where minima in solar activity correspond to minima calcareous nannofossil diversity and vice versa. In particular, the antiphase correlation between the abundance of Reworked Coccoliths and the North Atlantic Oscillation index, which modulates winter precipitation, suggests that this biotic index could be used as a reliable proxy to reconstruct the variations in the hydrographic basin runoff of the Volturno and Garigliano rivers. In addition, power spectral and wavelet analysis carried out on both signals documented the occurrence of climatic cycles of the duration of about 95 yr. From 1900 AD upwards, a turnover in the periodicity from 95 yr climatic cycles to 22–26 yr cycles occurred in the Reworked Coccoliths signal, suggesting a strong control of solar forcing (Hale cycle) over the last century.
7.  Malik et al., 2016       In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth’s climate on seasonal to decadal time scale. We focus on effects of varying solar activity on All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) and try to investigate how much the prediction of AISMR on a seasonal to decadal time scale can be improved by considering the solar irradiance variability in climate models. … Further, in our analysis we have found strong statistical evidence of the influence of solar activity on AMO and AISMR. We have found highly statistically significant evidence that North Atlantic SSTs are positively correlated with TSI on annual (CC 0.46), decadal (CC 0.55) and multidecadal time scales (CC 0.42) during the period 1600-2000. Also AMO influences the Niño3 and AISMR.
8.  Salau et al., 2016       Discussion of the Results: For each location, the mean temperature increases with rising insolation [surface solar radition] while the resulting increase in the precipitation is highest among the three variables. … The mean temperature and precipitation, averaged over 1980–2010 (1983–2010 for Abuja), are also compared. Overall, the investigation shows a linear relationship between the solar radiation and the induced temperature, thus indicating that the observed variations in the temperature are mainly controlled by the insolation forcing
9.  Kodera et al., 2016       Conclusion:  In summary, diverse aspects of the solar signal on the Earth’s surface can be explained solely by solar UV heating changes in the upper stratosphere which penetrate the troposphere through two pathways: the stratospheric westerly jet in the extratropics, and the stratospheric mean meridional circulation in the tropics, as suggested by Kodera and Kuroda (2002). … [C]entennial-scale solar signals could also be explained by a change in the spectral distribution of solar irradiance, with changes only in the UV part of the solar spectrum, even if the change in total energy was negligibly small.
10.  Hassan et al., 2016       The various techniques have been used to confer the existence of significant relations between the number of Sunspots and different terrestrial climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, dewdrops, aerosol and ENSO etc.. …This study uses a Markov chain method to find the relations between monthly Sunspots and ENSO data of two epochs (1996–2009 and 1950–2014) …  [P]erfect validation of dependency and stationary tests endorses the applicability of the Markov chain analyses on Sunspots and ENSO data. This shows that a significant relation between Sunspots and ENSO data exists.
11.  Salas et al., 2016        The investigation assesses the influence of recent climatic events in the water resources and the aquifer dynamics in the Huasco watershed by means of the analysis of precipitation, streamflow and piezometric levels during the last 50 years. …  Water reservoirs in the main aquifer (Section III) and in the Santa Juana dam are highly sensitive to ENSO oscillation climatic patterns. … .Spectral analysis identified the presence of a 22.9-year cycle in piezometric levels of the alluvial aquifer of the Huasco River. This cycle is consistent with the 22-year Hale solar cycle, suggesting the existence of a solar forcing controlling the ENSO oscillations.
12.  Nurtaev, 2016         Introduction: Sunspot number time series can be conceived as indicators of climate trends. Extraterrestrial solar-irradiance variations are associated with variations in regional climatology by means of global atmospheric circulation. [S]olar observations over the last century show a long term increase trend of solar activity. During this period also was observed an increase in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere.
13.  Malik and Brönnimann, 2016       We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR [All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall] and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs [internal climate forcings] and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. … We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.
14.  Perone et al., 2016       Evident correlation among solar activity, ENSO effect, tree ring during 20th century … Tree rings reveal climatic variations through years, but also the effect of solar activity in influencing the climate on a large scale. … In the Chilean and Argentinian sites, significant agreement between the time series of tree rings and the 11-year solar cycle was found during the periods of maximum solar activity. Results also showed oscillation with periods of 2–7 years, probably induced by local environmental variations, and possibly also related to the El-Niño events. … These results provided new evidence on the solar activity-climate pattern-tree ring connections over centuries.
15.  Mursula, 2016       Solar mass emission and climate … The new long-term information also allows interesting possibilities to more reliably study the long-term evolution of solar effects in the Earth’s atmosphere and climate. E.g., there is evidence that processes related to HSSs [solar wind streams] may modulate regional/hemispheric climate patterns, in particular the NAO/NAM oscillation. Moreover, other, independent climate effects due to the HMF [heliospheric magnetic field] have been suggested.
16.  Gray et al., 2016       Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870–2010 (140 years; ~13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3–4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660–2010 (350 years; ~32 solar cycles). … Corresponding analysis of DJF [December-February]-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant [solar] signal at ~1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF [December-February] blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.
17.  Zhou et al., 2016       A significant correlation between the solar wind speed (SWS) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the region of the North Atlantic Ocean has been found for the Northern Hemisphere winter from 1963 to 2010, based on 3-month seasonal averages. … SST responds to changes in tropospheric dynamics via wind stress, and to changes in cloud cover affecting the radiative balance. Suggested mechanisms for the solar influence on SST include changes in atmospheric ionization and cloud microphysics affecting cloud cover, storm invigoration, and tropospheric dynamics.  … [D]irect solar inputs, including energetic particles and solar UV, produce stratospheric dynamical changes. Downward propagation of stratospheric dynamical changes eventually further perturbs tropospheric dynamics and SST.
18.  Ball et al., 2016       Solar variability can influence surface climate, for example by affecting the mid-to-high-latitude surface pressure gradient associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. One key mechanism behind such an influence is the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone in the tropical stratosphere, a process that modifies temperature and wind patterns and hence wave propagation and atmospheric circulation. The amplitude of UV variability is uncertain, yet it directly affects the magnitude of the climate response: observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite show broadband changes up to three times larger than previous measurements.
19.  Tedesco et al., 2016       The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade−1 between 1996 and 2012.  … Net solar radiation is the most significant driver of summer surface melt over the GrIS (van den Broeke et al., 2011; Tedesco et al., 2011), and is determined by the combination of the amount of incoming solar radiation and surface albedo.
20.  Elsharkawy and Elmallah, 2016       [C]ross-correlation and spectral analysis techniques are applied to investigate the influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial parameters, represented by North Atlantic Oscillations, NAO, and sunspot number, Rz, respectively, upon regional temperature. … Correlation results showed highest influences upon autumn and winter coast temperatures by Rz [sunspot number] and NAO during 1981-2010. … NAO is a potential transmitter of solar forcing as it acts as a mediator between the Sun and Earth’s climate.
21.  Scafetta, 2016       The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. … [R]esults clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia.
22.  Czymzik et al., 2016       Flood frequency in both records is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity from the solar Schwabe cycle to multi-centennial oscillations. These significant correlations suggest a solar influence on the frequency of hydroclimate extremes in central Europe. Similar configurations of atmospheric circulation during periods of increased flood frequency and reduced solar activity, as expected to be caused by the so-called solar top-down mechanism by model studies, might indicate that the observed solar activity–flood frequency linkage is related to this feedback. … [N]umerous empirical associations between the activity of the Sun and climate variables like temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation and frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological extremes indicate a solar influence on climate on regional scales (Adolphi et al., 2014; Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Gray et al., 2010; Lockwood, 2012; Wirth et al., 2013).
23.  Serykh and Sonechkin, 2016       Basing on a mathematical idea about the so-called strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA) in the quasi-periodically forced dynamical systems, the currently available re-analyses data are considered. It is found that the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven not only by the seasonal heating, but also by three more external periodicities (incommensurate to the annual period) associated with the ~18.6-year lunar-solar nutation of the Earth rotation axis, ~11-year sunspot activity cycle and the ~14-month Chandler wobble in the Earth’s pole motion.
24.  Gopalswamy, 2016       Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are relatively a recently discovered phenomenon—in 1971, some 15 years into the Space Era. It took another two decades to realize that CMEs are the most important players in solar terrestrial relationship as the root cause of severe weather in Earth’s space environment.
25.  Bronck and Sirocko, 2016       The statistical analysis of all 92 historical freezing events showed that 80 events occurred during a negative NAO winter phase. The bootstrap test defined the results as extremely significant. To understand the climatic forcing behind the freezing chronology the NAO data set was smoothed by a three point running mean filter and compared with the 11- year cyclicity of the sunspot numbers. A complete NAO cycle can be observed within each solar cycle back to 1960 and from 1820 to 1900….[T]he 11 year solar periodicity is related to various parts of the Earth/Ocean/Atmosphere system and not only to the stratospheric signal. However, the NAO is the dominating mediator to implement a solar component into the European winter extremes.
26.  Scafetta, 2016       This study investigates the existence of a multi-frequency spectral coherence between planetary and global surface temperature oscillations by using advanced techniques of coherence analysis and statistical significance tests. … [U]sing the canonical coordinates analysis at least five coherent frequencies at the 95% significance level are found at the following periods: 6.6, 7.4, 14, 20 and 60 years. Thus, high resolution coherence analysis confirms that the climate system can be partially modulated by astronomical forces of gravitational, electromagnetic and solar origin. … Numerous evidences for a solar influence on the climate at multiple scales are also well-known (e.g.: Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). More recently, several authors have advocated a planetary theory of solar and climate oscillations on shorter scales (e.g.: Abreu et al., 2012, Charvátová, 2009, Cionco and Soon, 2015, Hung, 2007, Jakubcová and Pick, 1986, Jose, 1965, McCracken et al., 2013, McCracken et al., 2014, Mörner et al., 2013, Mörner, 2015, Puetz et al., 2014, Salvador, 2013, Solheim, 2013, Tan and Cheng, 2013, Tattersall, 2013 and Wilson, 2013) … A coupling between planetary oscillations and climate change must necessarily involve a complex and long chain of physical mechanisms that are being investigated in the scientific literature.  … Finally, an astronomically induced albedo variation could easily induce climatic variations. In fact, if the Earth’s albedo oscillates by just a few percent driven by astronomical forcings, the resulting oscillations would be sufficient to induce the observed climatic oscillations because these are of the order of a fraction of Celsius degree.
27.  Martínez-Asensio et al., 2016       Autumn sea level extremes vary with the 11-year solar cycle at Venice as suggested by previous studies but a similar link is also found at Trieste. In addition, a solar signal in winter sea level extremes is also found at Venice, Trieste, Marseille, Ceuta, Brest and Newlyn. The influence of the solar cycle is also evident in the sea level extremes derived from a barotropic model with spatial patterns that are consistent with the correlations obtained at the tide gauges. This agreement indicates that the link to the solar cycle is through modulation of the atmospheric forcing.
28.  Weißbach et al., 2016       Compared to single records, this stack represents the mean δ18O signal for northern Greenland that is interpreted as proxy for temperature. Our northern Greenland δ18O stack indicates distinctly enriched [warm] δ18O values during medieval times, about AD 1420 ± 20 and from AD 1870 onwards. The period between AD 1420 and AD 1850 has depleted [cold] δ18O values compared to the average for the entire millennium and represents the Little Ice Age. The δ18O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420.  …. The solar activity and internal Arctic climate dynamics are likely the main factors influencing the temperature in northern Greenland.
29.  Svensmark et al., 2016 [press release]       Solar activity has a direct impact on the Earth’s cloud cover … The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth’s atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.  Since clouds are known to affect global temperatures on longer timescales, the present investigation represents an important step in the understanding of clouds and climate variability.
“Earth is under constant bombardment by particles from space called galactic cosmic rays. Violent eruptions at the Sun’s surface can blow these cosmic rays away from Earth for about a week. Our study has shown that when the cosmic rays are reduced in this way there is a corresponding reduction in Earth’s cloud cover. Since clouds are an important factor in controlling the temperature on Earth our results may have implications for climate change,” explains lead author on the study Jacob Svensmark of DTU. … The effect from Forbush decreases on clouds is too brief to have any impact on long-term temperature changes. However, since clouds are affected by short term changes in galactic cosmic radiation, they may well also be affected by the slower change in Solar activity that happens on scales from tens to hundreds of years, and thus play a role in the radiation budget that determines the global temperatureThe Sun’s contribution to past and future climate change may thus be larger than merely the direct changes in radiation, concludes the scientists behind the new study.
30.  Lenz et al., 2016       Two palynological analyses of 6.3 and 70 kyr long records with a temporal resolution of 70 and 700 years respectively confirm vegetation and climate variability in the sub-Milankovitch range. This variability clearly corresponds to cyclic climate fluctuations indicating the influence of solar activity and a millennial-scale variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation also seen during the Quaternary icehouse system. 
31.  Haig and Nott, 2016       The development of a new tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible. Here we show that in addition to other well-known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.
32.  Arsenovic et al., 2016       We investigate the influence of Middle Range Energy Electrons (MEE; typically 30-300 keV) precipitation on the atmosphere using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with coupled ocean. … Results show that during geomagnetically active periods MEE [Middle Range Energy Electrons] significantly increase the amount of NOy and HOx in the polar winter mesosphere, in addition to other particles and sources, resulting in local ozone decreases of up to 35%. These changes are followed by an intensification of the polar night jet, as well as mesospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. … A surface air temperature response is detected in several regions, with the most pronounced warming occurring in the Antarctic during austral winter. Surface warming of up to 2 K is also seen over continental Asia during boreal winter.
33.  Wang et al., 2016       The broad comparability between the HML paleo-proxies, Chinese speleothem δ18Orecords, and the northern hemisphere summer insolation throughout the Holocene, suggests that solar insolation exerts a profound influence on ASM [Asian summer monsoon] changes. These findings reinforce a model of combined insolation and glacial forcing of the ASM.
34.  Huo and Xiao, 2016       The impact of solar activity on the 2015/16 El Niño event … Recent SST and atmospheric circulation anomaly data suggest that the 2015/16 El Niño event is quickly decaying. Some researchers have predicted a forthcoming La Niña event in late summer or early fall 2016. From the perspective of the modulation of tropical SST by solar activity, the authors studied the evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño event, which occurred right after the 2014 solar peak year. Based on statistical and composite analysis, a significant positive correlation was found between sunspot number index and El Niño Modoki index, with a lag of two years. A clear evolution of El Niño Modoki events was found within 1–3 years following each solar peak year during the past 126 years, suggesting that anomalously strong solar activity during solar peak periods favors the triggering of an El Niño Modoki event. The patterns of seasonal mean SST and wind anomalies since 2014 are more like a mixture of two types of El Niño (i.e., eastern Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki), which is similar to the pattern modulated by solar activity during the years following a solar peak. Therefore, the El Niño Modoki component in the 2015/16 El Niño event may be a consequence of solar activity, which probably will not decay as quickly as the eastern Pacific El Niño component. The positive SST anomaly will probably sustain in the central equatorial Pacific (around the dateline) and the northeastern Pacific along the coast of North America, with a low-intensity level, during the second half of 2016.
35.  Wahab et al., 2016       Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar interactions, and the mechanisms explain the response of the Earth’s climate system. The NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) is one of the most dominant modes of global climate variability. Like El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, it is considered as free internal oscillation of the climate system not subjected to external forcing. It is shown, to be linked to energetic solar eruptions. Surprisingly, it turns out that features of solar activity have been related to El Niño and La Niña, also have an significant impact on the NAO. The climate of the Atlantic sector exhibits considerable variability on a wide range of time scales. A substantial portion is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a hemispheric meridional oscillation as atmospheric mass with centers of action near Iceland and over the subtropical Atlantic. NAO- has a related impacts on winter climate extend from Florida to Greenland and from northwestern Africa over Europe far into northern Asian region. In the present work solar cycle 22 was implemented via sun spots number and area and there interrelationship with NAO index and discussed their dependency which consequently that could be used to predict the behavior of NAO index in the next solar cycle as an indicator to climatic variability.
36.  Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2016       In this work we study links between low cloud anomalies (LCA) at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations used as a proxy of solar variability on the decadal time scale. It was shown that these links are not direct, but realized through GCR/solar activity phenomena influence on the development of extratropical baric systems (cyclones and troughs) which form cloud field.
37.  Scafetta et al., 2016       Indeed, many other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 years, 45 years, 60 years, 85 years, 159–171–185 years) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently received a renewed attention. In our particular case, the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation.
38.  Turney et al., 2016       Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow has a significant influence on the ocean–atmosphere system [precipitation, sea ice extent, sea surface temperatures and the carbon cycle”] of the mid- to high latitudes with potentially global climate implications. … Spectral analysis of the charcoal record identifies a pervasive ca. 250-year periodicity that is coherent with radiocarbon production rates, suggesting that solar variability has a modulating influence on Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow.
39.  Baker, 2016       For solar measurements, the first four rows of the matrix predict at least 98% of the top hundred significant periodicities determined from multi-taper spectral analysis of solar data sets (the satellite ACRIM composite irradiance; the terrestrial 10.7cm Penticton Adjusted Daily Radio Flux, Series D; and the historical mean monthly International Sunspot Number). At centennial and millennial time scales, the same matrix predicts ‘average’ significant periodicities (greater than 95%) reported in 23 published climate data sets. This discovery suggests there is strong empirical evidence for a d-cyclic fractional ‘solar clock’, where the corresponding spectrum of cycles and switching events are embedded into the historical, climatic and geological records of the Earth.
40.  Liu et al., 2016       Significant relationships were found between our PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] reconstruction and the solar radiation cycle and the sun spot cycle, North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
41.  Engels et al., 2016       Increasing precipitation amounts around 2800 cal. yr BP resulted in a lake-level rise of about 3.5–4 m to levels that were 1–1.5 m higher than at present, in line with increased precipitation levels as inferred for the 2.8-kyr event from nearby raised bog areas as well as with reconstructions of higher lake levels in the French Alps, all of which have been previously attributed to a phase of decreased solar activity.
42.  Chen et al., 2016       This reconstruction successfully captured the wetting trend that occurred from the 1980s to the 2000s and generally agreed with dry periods previously estimated from tree-ring records obtained from the surrounding areas. Moreover, a wavelet coherence analysis shows that significant common oscillations (11.5 and 60 yr) have occurred and suggests that precipitation variations across the Urumqi region were related to different climatic forcing mechanisms (i.e. solar activities and the NAO).
43.  Luoto and Nevalainen, 2016       Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes … The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny.
44.  Jin et al., 2016       Our record provides further evidence for the complex relationship of insolation [surface solar radiation]-induced temperature, evaporation, and precipitation affecting the regional climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau.
45.  Roy, 2016       This work studies the role of natural factors mainly solar eleven-year cycle variability, and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for around last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in different time periods. Solar variability has a positive influence on NAO during 1978-1997, which is opposite before that period. Solar NAO lag relationship is also sensitive to the chosen times of reference. Such analyses raise a question about previously proposed mechanism and relationship related to the sun and NAO. The ENSO is seen to be influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods.
46.  Jansen et al., 2016       [W]e suggest that deviations in ELA [equilibrium line altitude] fluctuations between Scandinavian maritime and continental glaciers around 7150, 6560, 6000, 5150, 3200 and 2200 cal. yr BP reflect the different response of continental and maritime glaciers to drops in total solar irradiance (TSI).
47.  Czymzik et al., 2016       Calcite layer thickness oscillations of about 88 and 208 years resemble the solar Gleissberg and Suess cycles suggesting that the recorded hydroclimate changes in north-eastern Germany are modified by solar influences on synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.
48.  Nagai et al., 2016       The multi-millennial variability recorded in both cores suggests the occurrence of Holocene in-phase climatic changes both in Southern Hemisphere at the latitudes of the SW coast of Brazil (Cabo Frio region) and in the Northern Hemisphere, at the latitude of Galicia (NW Iberian Margin). These coupled climatic alterations were probably related to changes in the oceanic-atmospheric climatic systems, coupled with and amplified by solar forcing effects.
49.  Zhang et al., 2016       Our results reveal a persistent wetting trend in northwestern China in winter throughout the Holocene, which is in response to winter insolation [surface solar radiation] at mid-northern latitudes. Winter insolation [surface solar radiation] can influence the rainfall via three ways. First, increasing latitudinal gradient of the incoming solar insolation at mid-latitudes strengthens the westerly intensity. Second, the evaporation is enhanced because of insolation-induced winter temperature rising, resulting in an increase in the air humidity. Intensified westerly winds and the increased water vapour together are conductive to enhance moisture transport towards northwestern China and thus increase winter precipitation in this area. Third, the increasing trend of winter insolation [surface solar radiation] weakens the East Asian winter monsoon, which is favourable for the formation of rainfall via crippling the Siberian High that is beneficial for atmospheric lifting motion.
50.  Kuroda, 2016       Climate is known to be affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and late-winter/spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, these signals tend to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period only in the High Solar (HS) years.
51.  Schulte et al., 2016       Comparing the sedimentary flood proxies from the basins analysed and the Summer NAO index from 1670 to 2000, severe floods occurred mostly during positive SNAO modes. This result is supported by our findings regarding the influence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation pattern on summer floods in Switzerland (1800-2008). Thus, the mechanisms of flood processes from the different catchments are strongly influenced by North Atlantic dynamics and solar forcing.
52.  Sánchez et al., 2016       Peatland dynamics seems to have been coupled to changes in solar irradiance and hydrological conditions. Our results point to wetter conditions after the mid-16th century, although with high intra-annual fluctuations. At the late 18th century, when solar activity was systematically higher than before, peat carbon accumulation rates (PCAR) showed a continuous increase and the humification indices suggest a change towards more humified peat.
53.  Kodera et al., 2016       The solar signal in the annual mean surface temperature is characterized by (i) mid-latitude warming and (ii) no overall tropical warming. The mid-latitude warming during solar maxima in both hemispheres is associated with a downward penetration of zonal mean zonal wind anomalies from the upper stratosphere during late winter. During the Northern Hemisphere winter this is manifested by a modulation of the polar-night jet, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere, the upper stratospheric subtropical jet plays the major role. Warming signals are particularly apparent over the Eurasian continent and ocean frontal zones, including a previously reported lagged response over the North Atlantic. In the tropics, local warming occurs over the Indian and central Pacific oceans during high solar activity. …. These experiments support earlier evidence of an indirect solar influence [on surface temperatures] from the stratosphere.
54.  Berger et al., 2016       This multi-proxy study of a small floodplain in the Rhone catchment area, at the northern edge of the Mediterranean morphoclimatic system, provides valuable information concerning the impact of mid-Holocene climate variability (8.5–7.0 ka) and the effects of two rapid climatic changes (8.2 and 7.7/7.1 ka) on an alluvial plain, its basin and the first farming societies of the Rhone valley. Around 7.7/7.1 ka [7,700/7,100 years ago], the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation and (2) variations in solar activity amplified marine and atmospheric circulation in the north-west Atlantic (Bond event 5b), which imply continental hydrological, soil and vegetation changes in the small catchment area.
55.  Zhang and Jin, 2016       This paper provides another look at the response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to insolation forcing and oceanic feedback during the Holocene, using a fully coupled general circulation ocean–atmosphere model forced by Earth’s orbital variations. The model results revealed a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime (June–July–August) mid-latitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere during the Holocene. The CGT [circumglobal teleconnection] index showed a decreasing trend before ~5 ka BP and a slight increasing trend afterwards, affected by the combined effects of summer insolation, Indian summer monsoon (ISM), North Atlantic and Indian Ocean–western Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The CGT showed a close relationship with ASM precipitation and surface air temperature during the Holocene and, therefore, could act as a bridge linking the ASM to insolation, high-latitude forcing (North Atlantic SST), and low-latitude forcing (tropical Ocean SST).
56.  Zhu et al., 2016       We identified four major cold periods (1839–1846, 1884–1901, 1906–1908 and 1941–1958) and three major warm periods (1855–1880, 1918–1932 and 1998–2013) in the past 211 years. The multi-taper method spectral analysis revealed significant cycles at 48.8, 11.5, 8.9, 3.9, 3.5 and 2–3 years, which might be associated with global climate oscillations and land-sea thermal contrasts, such as the sea surface temperatures, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and solar activity.
57.  Wang et al., 2016       Tree-ring-based reconstruction of temperature variability (1445–2011) for the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China … Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
58.  Al-Tameemi and Chukin, 2016       Highlights: Strong correlation between solar activity and the global evaporation rate is detected. … The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983–2008. … The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.
59.  Ogurtsov et al., 2016       Five proxy temperature time series based on tree-rings and varves from the middle and high latitudes (φ > 50°) of North America were analyzed. They cover the last 3–5 centuries. It was shown that the reconstructions from Canadian Rockies (52.15° N, 117.15° W) and northeast Alaska (68.8° N, 142.3° W) correlate appreciably with Wolf [sunspot] number and 10Be concentration in Greenland ice over long (T > 13 years) time scales.
60.  Xiao et al., 2016       The impact of solar activity on tropical Pacific convection during the boreal summer (June-July-August, JJA) has been examined using reanalysis data, revealing a significant lagged (1–2 years) correlation between outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the tropical western Pacific and the F10.7 index. The OLR anomaly over the tropical western Pacific and the maritime continent shows a dipole pattern during the 1–2 years following high solar (HS) years.By modulating vertical air temperature, the solar signal in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the triggering of a lagged convection dipole pattern.
61.  Bernal et al., 2016       [A]tmospheric circulation over South America and monsoon intensity have been tightly correlated throughout most of the Holocene, both directly responding to solar precession. … We also detect periods where rainfall amount in northeastern and southeastern Brazil are markedly anti-phased, suggesting a north-south migration of SACZ, which it appears to be mediated by solar irradiance. 
62.  Pedersen et al., 2016       The last interglacial, the Eemian, was characterized by higher than present temperatures in the Arctic region driven by increased summertime insolation [surface solar radiation] at high northern latitudes (CAPE-Last Interglacial Project Members, 2006; MassonDelmotte et al., 2013). The recent NEEM ice core from northwestern Greenland covers the last interglacial period and indicates substantial warming from 129 to 114 thousand years before present (ka) peaking at 8 ± 4 K above the mean of the last millennium. … During the Eemian, the global sea level was increased 6–9 m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012; Dutton et al., 2015; Kopp et al., 2009), indicating a substantial reduction in the continental ice sheets. … [T]he insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction.
63.  Bügelmayer-Blaschek et al., 2016       We performed 19 experiments that differ in the applied forcings (TSI [total solar irradiance], volcanic) and the initial atmospheric conditions. … The fact that also model runs that are not forced with TSI [total solar irradiance] variations display an 80 year time lag indicates that the relationship between TSI [total solar irradiance] and IMF [iceberg melt flux] is due to internal dynamics of the coupled system. From our experiments we conclude that internal ice sheet variability seems to be the source of the multi-century and millennial-scale iceberg events during the Holocene.
64.  Cullens et al., 2016       Simulations under both time-varying and fixed-solar inputs show statistically significant responses in temperatures and winds in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during austral winter and spring. At solar maximum, the monthly-mean, zonal-mean temperature in the SH from July to October is cooler (~1 – 3 K) in the stratosphere and warmer (~1 – 4 K) in the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere (MLT). In solar maximum years, the SH polar vortex is more stable and its eastward speed is about 5 – 8 m s-1 greater than during solar minimum. The increase in the eastward wind propagates downward and poleward from July to October in the SH. Because of increase in the eastward wind, the propagation of eastward gravity waves to the MLT is reduced. This results in a net westward response in gravity wave drag, peaking at ~10 m s-1 day-1 in the SH high-latitude MLT. These changes in gravity wave drag modify the wave-induced residual circulation, and this contributes to the warming of ~1 – 4 K in the MLT.
65.  Cabedo-Sanz et al., 2016       Highlights: Periodicities in drift ice potentially associated with volcanic and solar forcing … Abstract: The early mid Holocene (ca 8–6.2 cal ka BP) was characterized by relatively low or absent drift ice, low primary productivity and relatively high SSTs.
66.  Kawahata et al., 2016       A long-term trend of declining SSTs can be attributed mainly to changes in solar radiation and sea level and, to a lesser extent, changes in the Asian monsoon. … During the last three millennia, the SSTs (ATs) fluctuated by 2.1 °C, with a maximum in 820 AD (24.3 °C [25.9 °C]) and two minima in 760 BC (22.2 °C [23.8 °C]) and 990 AD (22.4 °C [24.0 °C]). … These temperature fluctuations cannot be explained by a single cause but rather by more than one external and internal driver of climate variability (e.g., volcanic forcing, ocean-atmosphere interactions, and solar forcing).
67.  Incarbona et al., 2016       Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation paterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. … Thermohaline circulation destabilisations in the Mediterranean circulation also seem to be linked to reduced solar activity and to frequent volcanic eruptions. Solar activity modulates patterns in surface temperature and pressure that resemble NAO phases, through dynamical coupling processes between the stratosphere and the troposphere that transmit the solar signal to the Earth’s surface. The increase in sulphur aerosols from tropical volcanic emissions produces stratospheric and surface conditions that resemble the positive NAO phase and cause decrease in oceanic heat content, with long-lived temperature anomalies extending to the mid-depth and deep ocean…
68.  Tang et al., 2016       The thermal structure and energy balance of upper atmosphere are dominated by solar activity. … [T]he results show that the global T-CPM [Temperature of Cold-Point-Mesopause] is significantly correlated to solar activity at the 0.05 level of significance with correlation coefficient of 0.90. … The co-relationship analysis shows that the T-CPM is significantly correlated to solar activity at the 0.05 level of significance for each latitude zone. The correlation coefficients at middle latitude regions are higher than those of equator and high latitude regions, and the global distribution takes on M-shape.
69.  Sunkara and Tiwari, 2016       To study the imprints of the solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on the Indian subcontinent, we have applied singular spectral analysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis to the tree-ring temperature variability record from the Western Himalayas. Other data used in the present study are the solar sunspot number (SSN), geomagnetic indices (aa index), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the common time period of 1876–2000. Both SSA and wavelet spectral analyses reveal the presence of 5–7-year short-term ENSO variations and the 11-year solar cycle, indicating the possible combined influences of solar–geomagnetic activities and ENSO on the Indian temperature. Another prominent signal corresponding to 33-year periodicity in the tree-ring record suggests the Sun-temperature variability link probably induced by changes in the basic state of the Earth’s atmosphere. In order to complement the above findings, we performed a wavelet analysis of SSA reconstructed time series, which agrees well with our earlier results and increases the signal-to-noise ratio, thereby showing the strong influence of solar–geomagnetic activity and ENSO throughout the entire period. … The present analyses suggest that the influence of solar activities on the Indian temperature variability operates in part indirectly through coupling of ENSO on multilateral timescales. 
70.  Usoskin et al., 2016      The corrected series is provided as supplementary material in electronic form and displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton Minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg Minimum), as well as the Modern Grand Maximum of activity in the second half of the twentieth century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. 
71.  Sha et al., 2016       Solar forcing as an important trigger for West Greenland sea-ice variability over the last millennium … Here, we use diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core collected from the West Greenland shelf to reconstruct changes in sea-ice cover over the last millennium. The proxy-based reconstruction demonstrates a generally strong link between changes in sea-ice cover and solar variability during the last millennium. Weaker (or stronger) solar forcing may result in the increase (or decrease) in sea-ice cover west of Greenland. In addition, model simulations show that variations in solar activity not only affect local sea-ice formation, but also control the sea-ice transport from the Arctic Ocean through a sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism.
72.  Muthers et al., 2016       The influence of reduced solar forcing (grand solar minimum or geoengineering scenarios like solar radiation management) on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed in an ensemble of atmosphere-oceanchemistry-climate model simulations. Ensemble sensitivity simulations are performed with and without interactive chemistry. Without chemistry-climate interaction the AMOC is intensified in the course of the solar radiation reduction (SRR), which is attributed to the thermal effect of the solar forcing: reduced sea surface temperatures and enhanced sea ice formation increase the density of the upper ocean in the North Atlantic and intensify the deepwater formation. In simulations with chemistry-climate interactions a second, dynamical effect on the AMOC is identified which counteracts the thermal effect. This dynamical mechanism is driven by the stratospheric cooling in response to the reduced solar forcing, which is strongest in the tropics and leads to a weakening of the Northern polar vortex.
73.  Roy et al., 2016      Introduction: Observational studies have suggested a significant solar related impact on sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (van Loon et al., 2007, Meehl et al., 2008), tropical circulations (Haigh et al., 2005, Meehl et al., 2008), climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics (van Loon et al., 2004), Northern Hemisphere winter blocking (Barriopedro et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2010), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Lockwood et al., 2010, Maliniemi et al., 2013, 2014), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) (Ogi et al., 2004) and Antarctic polar vortex (Haigh and Roscoe, 2009).
74.  Agnihotri, 2016       Summary and Recommendations: With increasing evidences from both continental (such as aforementioned examples of climate manifestations) as well as oceanic repositories [Agnihotri et al., 2002 & 2008; Kurian et al., 2009] from both hemispheres (i.e. northern as well as southern hemispheres), it is becoming clear that variations in Sun’s energy output despite being quantitatively very minute, appears to be capable of influencing terrestrial climate on decadal to centennial timescales, most likely due to involvement of certain key ocean-atmospheric feedback processes [Agnihotri & Dutta, 2003; Kodera, 2004; Ruzmaikin, 2007]. Exact causal mechanism(s) involved and necessary amplifying agents are still to be identified and understood in order to quantify role of this external forcing of climate.
75.  Eicher, 2016       Climatic and insolation [surface solar radiation]  control on the high-resolution total air content in the NGRIP ice core … Here we present a highresolution TAC record over the whole North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core, covering the last 120 000 years, which independently supports an insolation signature in Greenland. Wavelet analysis reveals a clear precession and obliquity signal similar to previous findings on Antarctic TAC, with a different insolation history.
76.  Sen and Ogrin, 2016       This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864–2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated.  The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.                     
77.  Maruyama, 2016       The interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change is increasing. As for the solar activity, a fractal property of the sunspot series was studied by many works. In general, a fractal property was observed in the time series of dynamics of complex systems. The purposes of this study were to investigate the relationship between the sunspot number, solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm) and total ozone from a view of multifractality. … The influence of the solar activity on the total ozone was shown by the wavelet coherence, phase and the similarity of the change of fractality. These findings will contribute to the research of the relationship between the solar activity and climate.
78.  Poulos, 2016       The physical mechanism proposed is that planetary gravitational forces drive solar activity that in turn drives temperature variations in earth. The sun is in a boundary balance state at one hand collapsing due to gravity and at the other hand expanding due to fusion, and as such it should be heavily influenced by minimal external forcings such as planetary gravity. Sound waves in the solar mass, created from the planetary movement, are responsible for the formation of solar corona and sun spots. The Earth-Venus 251 year resonance is resonant to a near surface solar layer’s thermal natural frequency that “explodes” to form solar wind. The calculated solar wind properties match the observed.
79.  Maliniemi, 2016       Observations of solar wind related climate effects in the Northern Hemisphere winter … Recent results, both observational and from chemistry climate models, have indicated significant effects in the Earth’s middle atmosphere due to the energetic electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere. These effects include the formation of reactive hydrogen and nitrogen oxides in the high latitude mesosphere and the depletion of ozone caused by them. Ozone is a radiatively active and important gas, which affects the thermal structure and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Accordingly, the depletion of ozone can intensify the large scale stratospheric circulation pattern called the polar vortex. Winter weather conditions on the surface have been shown to be dependent on the polar vortex strength. … A comprehensive knowledge of the Earth’s climate system and all its drivers is crucial for the future projection of climate. Solar variability effects have been estimated to produce only a small factor to the global climate change. However, there is increasing evidence, including the results presented in this thesis, that the different forms of solar variability can have a substantial effect to regional and seasonal climate variability. With this new evidence, the solar wind related particle effects in the atmosphere are now gaining increasing attention. These effects will soon be included in the next coupled model inter comparison project (CMIP6) as an additional solar related climate effect.
80.  Muthers et al., 2016       The influence of reduced solar forcing (grand solar minimum or geoengineering scenarios like solar radiation management) on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is assessed in an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean–chemistry–climate model simulations. Ensemble sensitivity simulations are performed with and without interactive chemistry. In both experiments the AMOC is intensified in the course of the solar radiation reduction, which is attributed to the thermal effect of the solar forcing: reduced sea surface temperatures and enhanced sea ice formation increase the density of the upper ocean in the North Atlantic and intensify the deepwater formation. Furthermore, a second, dynamical effect on the AMOC is identified driven by the stratospheric cooling in response to the reduced solar forcing.

Warming Trend Since 1980s Explained By Surface Solar Radiation (Cloud Cover Reduction)

81. Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2016       The linear trend in the mean annual series of global solar radiation shows a significant increase since the 1980s of around 10 Wm-2 over the whole 32-year study period. Similar significant increases are observed in the mean seasonal series, with the highest rate of absolute (relative) change during summer (autumn). These results are in line with the widespread increase of global solar radiation, also known as the brightening period, reported at many worldwide observation sites (e.g. Wild, 2009; Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2013b). … Summarizing, all these results point towards a diminution of clouds and/or aerosols in Spain since the 1980s.
82.  Kambezidis et al., 2016      [T]his work investigates the evolution and trends in the surface net short-wave radiation (NSWR, surface solar radiation – reflected) over the Mediterranean Basin during the period 1979 − 2012 using monthly re-analysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and aims to shed light on the specific role of clouds on the NSWR trends. The solar dimming/brightening phenomenon is temporally and spatially analyzed over the Mediterranean Basin. The spatially-averaged NSWR over the whole Mediterranean Basin was found to increase in MERRA by +0.36 Wm−2 per decade, with higher rates over the western Mediterranean (+0.82 Wm−2 per decade), and especially during spring (March-April-May; +1.3 Wm−2 per decade). … The increasing trends in NSWR are mostly associated with decreasing ones in cloud optical depth (COD), especially for the low (<700 hPa) clouds. The decreasing COD trends (less opaque clouds and/or decrease in absolute cloudiness) are more pronounced during spring, thus controlling the increasing tendency in NSWR.
83.  Calbó et al., 2016       The present paper describes how the entire series of global solar radiation (1987–2014) and diffuse radiation (1994–2014) were built, including the quality control process. Appropriate corrections to the diffuse component were made when a shadowband was employed to make measurements. Analysis of the series reveals that annual mean global irradiance presents a statistically significant increase of 2.5 W m−2 (1.4 %) decade−1 (1988–2014 period), mainly due to what occurs in summer (5.6 W m−2 decade−1). These results constitute the first assessment of solar radiation trends for the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula and are consistent with trends observed in the regional surroundings and also by satellite platforms, in agreement with the global brightening phenomenon. Diffuse radiation has decreased at −1.3 W m−2 (−2 %) decade−1 (1994–2014 period), which is a further indication of the reduced cloudiness and/or aerosol load causing the changes.

Periods With Low Solar Activity (Little Ice Age) Correlate With Cooling; Periods With High Solar Activity (Modern, Medieval Solar Maximum) Correlate With Warming

84.  Andres, 2016       Reconstructions of historical climate changes indicate that surface air temperatures decreased over the preindustrial last millennium. Conflicting explanations have been proposed for the cause of the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the early part of the last millennium to the Little Ice Age (LIA) near its end. The possible causes include volcanic emissions, total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, greenhouse gas concentration fluctuations and orbital forcing variations. In the present paper, we demonstrate that all of these climate forcings contribute significantly to simulated surface air temperature and sea ice concentration changes over this period. On the other hand, simulated ocean heat content appears to respond significantly only to volcanic and TSI [total solar irradiance] variations.   In simulations at T85 resolution, TSI [total solar irradiance] reductions and volcanic emissions together generate significant increases in sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, which we find to be responsible for most of the temperature reductions over north-western Europe.
85.  Xing et al., 2016       The comparison between MDVM reconstructed temperature and the variation of external forcing (solar activity and volcanic activity) is shown in Fig. 5. The smoothed MDVM reconstruction exhibited a general agreement with the variation of the reconstructed total solar irradiance (TSI), and the correlation between the two series during the common period 849–2000 AD was significant (r = 0.498, edf = 34, p<0.01). Specially, the records shared high correlation coefficients in the epochs of the solar maximum (i.e. during the Medieval and Modern age), but poor correlation around 1500–1700 AD when the Spörer Minimum and Maunder Minimum occurred. It was similar to some other dendrochronological researches concerning the relation with solar activity. The relatively cold conditions between the two warm peaks around AD 1000 and 1100 seemed to be related to the Oort Minimum. …. Therefore, the temperature reconstructions based on the MDVM method agreed well in general with the characteristic variations of the solar and volcanic forcings. … It was also reported that the abrupt onset of the LIA was likely triggered by a succession of strong volcanic eruptions and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. According to mainstream opinions, the LIA type events were probably attributed to a combination of solar minima and volcanic eruptions.
86.  Voarintsoa et al., 2016       Multiple proxies … from Dante Cave [southwestern Africa] indicate a linkage between changes in hydroclimate in northeastern Namibia and changes in solar activity and changes in global temperatures. The record suggests that during solar minima and globally cooler conditions (ca. 1660–1710 and ca. 1790–1830 [Little Ice Age]), wetter periods (reflecting longer summer seasons) in northeastern Namibia were linked to advances of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Inter-Ocean Convergence Zone (IOCZ) southwestward.
87.  Chambers, 2016      The so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) of the 15th–19th centuries [1400-1900 AD] is a fascinating period of time, for many reasons. Extensive reading of the literature on the topic can reveal the following: (1) in many (but not all) proxy-climate reconstructions, it is shown as having a fast and strong onset (O’Brien et al., 1995), exceeded in the Holocene perhaps only by the 8.2ka event (Mayewski et al., 2004); (2) it includes evidence for glacier re-advance – in northern Europe, particularly, to positions not otherwise (or seldom) reached within the mid–late Holocene (McCarroll, 1991; Matthews and Shakesby, 1984; Nesje, 2009); (3) it follows the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and precedes the period of recent ‘Global Warming’, and therefore, it post-dates the Medieval Solar Maximum, encompasses up to three solar minima (Spörer, Maunder and Dalton) (Grove, 1988), and precedes the ‘Contemporary’ (namely, late 20th century) Solar Maximum (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997; Pan and Yau, 2002); (4) there are multiple hypotheses as to the cause of its onset (cf. Miller et al., 2012), although it is widely considered that reduced solar activity is the cause of at least its most intense phases (cf. Mauquoy et al., 2002) …. (12) recent work implies an in-phase relationship between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres [the Little Ice Age was a global event] (Chambers et al., 2014; Simms et al., 2012).
88.  Sanchez-Lopez et al., 2016       The dominant warm and arid conditions during the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300  CE], and the cold and wet conditions during the LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] indicate the interplay of the NAO+, EA+ and NAO- , EA- [positive/negative North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic phases], respectively. Furthermore, the higher solar irradiance during the [“warm conditions”] RP [Roman Period, 200 BCE – 500 CE] and MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300 CE] may support the predominance of the EA+ [positive East Atlantic] phase, whereas the opposite scenario [“colder temperatures”] during the EMA [Early Middle Age, 500-900 CE] and LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] may support the predominance of the EA- [negative East Atlantic] phase, which would favour the occurrence of frequent and persistent blocking events in the Atlantic region during these periods.
89.  Bauchi Danladi and Akçer-Ön, 2016       Due to the variability of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), several climatic forcing mechanisms have been invoked to enlighten the issue. The focus of this study is on the influence of the solar activity proxy (Total Solar Irradiance) during the LIA and MCA in a high altitude Lake Salda in south-western Anatolia.  … [T]he sediment records cover the last millennium. We have observed the effect of the solar activity throughout the LIA and MCA in Lake Salda, with wet and dry spells corresponding to high and low TSI [total solar irradiance] respectively. In addition, the Dalton Minimum, Maunder Minimum, Spörer Minimum, Wolf Minimum, the Medieval Maximum and the Oort Minimum have been observed.
90.  Li et al., 2016       Our results support the view that over the past millennium, on a multi-centennial timescale, the moisture variations in ACA [arid Central Asia] were generally out-of-phase with those in the region affected by the Asian summer monsoon. The humid, unstable LIA [Little Ice Age] climate in ACA [arid Central Asia] may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and/or with variations in solar irradiance.
91.  Guo et al., 2016       A regional synthesis of the palaeoflood chronology over the last 3000 years was compiled along the middle Yangtze River. Extraordinary flood events generally seem to be correlated with late Holocene climatic variability (i.e. Neoglacial cooling, Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age). The high-resolution climatic proxies from stalagmites of the Dongge cave and Heshang cave, ice-cores of the GRIP, the total solar irradiance variations and sunspot number, and ENSO activities suggest that these hydroclimatic events are possibly related to the weaker Asia summer monsoon and the cooling climatic events, as well as the stronger ENSO activities during the late Holocene in the Yangtze River valley. These results provide insights into the response of hydroclimatic system to global change in the large rivers of Asia.
92.  Miettinen et al., 2016       The results demonstrate both abrupt changes and a clear centennial-bicentennial variability for the last millennium. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1000 and 1200 CE represents the warmest ocean surface conditions of the SE Greenland shelf over the late Holocene (880 BCE-1910 CE). MCA in the current record is characterized by abrupt, decadal to multidecadal changes, such as an abrupt warming of ~2.4 °C in 55 years around 1000 CE. Temperature changes of these magnitudes are rarely observed in other proxy records from the North Atlantic. … A cool phase, from 1200-1890 CE, associated with the Little Ice Age (LIA), ends with the rapid warming of aSST and diminished aSIC in the early 20th century. The phases of warm aSST and aSIC minima on the SE Greenland shelf and solar minima of the last millennium are antiphased, suggesting that solar forcing possibly amplified by atmospheric forcing has been behind the aSST variability on the SE Greenland over the last millennium. 
93.  Zhu et al., 2016       During the period 1875–1955, late summer temperature fluctuated less strongly than before or thereafter. In general, the average length of cold periods was shorter than that of warm periods. The cold period of 1869–1877 was the longest and coldest cool period had a mean of 17.63°C. The longest warm period extended from 1655 to 1668, and the warmest period in AD 1719–1730 had a mean of 20.37°C. However, we should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST. … [S]even cold periods and three warm periods were identified during the past 368 years (Fig. 4d). All the cold periods were during the Maunder (1708–1711) or Dalton (1818– 1821, 1824–1828, 1832–1836, and 1839–1842) solar minima periods, except for the cold periods of 1765–1769 and 1869–1877 (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999), which indicated that RLST [mean maximum temperature] variations in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ] might be driven by solar activity (Fig. 7b). On the other hand, volcanic eruptions in the corresponding periods might also be a cooling factor (Fig. 7b). A longer cold period (e.g., 1820s–1840s) was interrupted by transient warming, thus forming a plurality of discontinuous short cold periods. Warm periods of 1719–1730 and 1858–1859 both had more sunspots (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999) and lower volcanic forcing (Fig. 7b). The cold (1765–1769 or 1869–1877) and warm (1655–1668) periods were highly consistent with other studies (Fig. 7). … Accompanied by significant peaks at 60.2 and 73 years, the continuously periodicities around 49–114 years in our regional temperature reconstruction might tentatively be related to PDO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; En- field et al., 2001) as well as solar activity (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999; Peristykh and Damon, 2003; Raspopov et al., 2004; Braun et al., 2005). … [S]ignificant multidecadal- and centennial-scale cycles of our temperature reconstruction might include the signs of solar activity, such as the Gleissberg cycles (Peristykh and Damon, 2003), Suess cycles (Braun et al., 2005), Bruckner cycles (Raspopov et al., 2004), and Schwabe cycles (Braun et al., 2005). The Maunder (ca. AD 1645–1715) and Dalton (ca. AD 1790–1840) solar minima periods were generally associated with temperature depressions (Eddy, 1976), and the Damon (ca. AD 1890– 1920) solar maximum period occurred in a relatively warm period, which further confirmed that late summer temperature variation in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ]  might be driven by solar activity (Fig. 7b). … Conclusion: Overall, the RLST [mean maximum temperature] variability in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ]  might be associated with global land–sea atmospheric circulation (e.g., ENSO, PDO, or AMO) as well as solar and volcanic forcing.
94.  Lyu et al., 2016       The reconstructed April–July MMT series exhibited six cold and seven warm periods. The longest cold period lasted from AD 1645 to 1677 (33 years), with an average temperature of 0.5 ◦C below the mean value. The longest warm period, however, lasted from AD 1767 to 1785 (19 years), and the average temperature was 0.69 ◦C above the mean value (Table 4). Four cold (1605–1616, 1645–1677, 1911–1924, and 1951–1969) and warm (1795–1807, 1838– 1848, 1856–1873, and 1991–2008) periods were consistent with other results of tree-ring reconstructions in northeast China (Shao and Wu, 1997; Yin et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2012; Zhu et al., 2015). In addition, two cold periods (1645– 1677 and 1684–1691) were consistent with the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), an interval of decreased solar irradiance (Bard et al., 2000). … The three temperature series exhibited significantly low temperature periods during the 1950s–1970s, which coincided with a slight decrease in solar activity from AD 1940 to 1970 (Beer et al., 2000; Fig. 7).
95.  Hanna, 2016       Temperature reconstructions from Simpson Lagoon also show similarities with regional and pan-Arctic climate records over the last few millennia, with evidence of temperature departures correlative with noted climate events (i.e., Little Ice Age, Medieval Climate Anomaly). … This paleoclimate variability may be driven by variations in solar output and/or shifts in the regional ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns (e.g., the Aleutian Low).

Projected 21st Century Cooler Temperatures Due To Lower Solar Activity

96.  Abdussamatov, 2016       The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11. The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream leads to stronger cooling in the zone of its action in western Europe and the eastern parts of the United States and Canada. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the causal feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age.
97.  Yndestad and Solheim, 2016       In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. …. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI [total solar irradiance] variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.
98.  Torres and Guzmán, 2016       Based on our results, we propose the use of the Wolf’s Number Oscillation Index (WNOI) – as a more uniform alternative to the ONI – in the range over 30 and below -30. The analysis of the material presented and the arguments discussed allows us to define a possible relationship between phenomena related to Solar Cycle, the ENSO, climatic conditions, as well as some criteria for the establishment of public policies for preservation and remediation of the environment in the long run. We can conclude that solar activity oscillations impact the earth climatic conditions to such a extent that they become measurable only in the long run. The magnitude of the Solar Cycle – from 7 to 17 and a mean of 11.2 years – seems to support this statement. Based on the similarities of the Solar Cycles 5 and 24 we can expect a longer period of cold weather for the years 2022 y/o 2034, corresponding to the Solar Cycles 24 and 25.
99.  Chiodo et al., 2016       Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the ‘grand’ minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m−2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea–ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth’s climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections.
100.  Sanchez-Sesma, 2016       This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450). … Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400 years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová (2000), respectively, with important and interesting influences in the near, past and future climate. These millennialscale patterns of reconstructed SA variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval maximum in the 12th century. … We can conclude that the evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.

Past Periods of Low Solar Activity Led to Cooling, More Droughts, Floods, and Hurricanes, Famines, Plagues, and Agricultural/Socioeconomic Collapse

101.  Camenisch et al., 2016       Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. 
102.  Chae and Park, 2016       We present a multi-proxy record (pollen, microscopic charcoal, carbon-isotopic composition [δ13C], organic content, and particle size) of the late-Holocene climate change and human impact from central-eastern South Korea. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), the most recent major climate events, have not been accurately investigated by paleolimnological studies in Korea, mainly due to a lack of undisturbed sediments and indifference to the past climate change. Our pollen records show late- Holocene centennial climate variations characterized by the successive solar minimums of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton. We find paleoenvironmental evidence for shifting cultivation associated with serious droughts and consequent famines during the early 19th-century Dalton minimum. Our interpretation of human activities is well supported by Korean historical documents describing socioeconomic suffering induced by LIA climate deteriorations.
103.  Büntgen et al., 2016       Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China.
104.  Katsuki et al., 2016       [W]e reconstructed the history of typhoon and storm-rain activity only for the interval AD 1400–1900. The record indicates that typhoon frequency throughout the Korean Peninsula varied in response to the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Typhoon variability was likely modulated further by the state of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) pattern, associated with variation in the magnitude of solar irradiance. During periods of minimum solar activity, such as the early Maunder Minimum (AD 1650–1675), typhoons struck the east China coast and Korean Peninsula more frequently because of a strengthened EASM.
105.  Gogou et al., 2016       We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5°C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. … Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. … The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.
106.  Stockhecke et al., 2016       Millennial to orbital-scale rainfall changes in the Mediterranean region and corresponding variations in vegetation patterns were the result of large-scale atmospheric reorganizations. In spite of recent efforts to reconstruct this variability using a range of proxy archives, the underlying physical mechanisms have remained elusive. Through the analysis of a new high-resolution sedimentary section from Lake Van (Turkey) along with climate modeling experiments, we identify massive droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean for the past four glacial cycles, which have a pervasive link with known intervals of enhanced North Atlantic glacial iceberg calving, weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Dansgaard-Oeschger cold conditions. On orbital timescales, the topographic effect of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and periods with minimum insolation [low solar activity] seasonality further exacerbated drought intensities by suppressing both summer and winter precipitation.
107.  Kaniewski et al., 2016       Solar pacing of storm surges, coastal flooding and agricultural losses in the Central Mediterranean … Storm surges, leading to catastrophic coastal flooding, are amongst the most feared natural hazards due to the high population densities and economic importance of littoral areas. Using the Central Mediterranean Sea as a model system, we provide strong evidence for enhanced periods of storminess leading to coastal flooding during the last 4500 years. We show that long-term correlations can be drawn between storminess and solar activity, acting on cycles of around 2200-yr and 230-yr. We also find that phases of increased storms and coastal flooding have impacted upon mid- to late Holocene agricultural activity on the Adriatic coast. Based on the general trend observed during the second half of the 20th century, climate models are predicting a weakening of Mediterranean storminess. By contrast, our new data suggest that a decrease in solar activity will increase and intensify the risk of frequent flooding in coastal areas.

Max Planck Institute (Model Calculations): Sahel Is Greening (Due To Human Activity)!

What follows is another example of climate science making up a theory to fit an observation. Of course, most of us suspect that natural cycles are what’s really at play here.
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Warmer Mediterranean turns the Sahel green

Anthropogenic climate change contributes to fanning of the West African monsoon by moisture from the Mediterranean

Climate change can have mixed consequences: It would appear that the warming of the Mediterranean region, which has brought greater heat and drought to the countries there for around 20 years, is behind an increase in rainfall in the Sahel region. As researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg report in the current edition of the journal Nature Climate Change, due to higher sea temperatures in the Mediterranean more moisture from the eastern Mediterranean is reaching the southern edge of the Sahara at the start of the West African monsoon in June.

Moreover, according to the current study, the future development of precipitation in the Sahel region is crucially dependent on the warming of the Mediterranean.

In the past 20 years, the Sahel has become greener because the West African monsoon brings more rain in the sub-Saharan region. A key reason for this is the strong Mediterranean warming as climate researchers from Hamburg have discovered.

In the past 20 years, the Sahel has become greener because the West African monsoon brings more rain in the sub-Saharan region. A key reason for this is the strong Mediterranean warming as climate researchers from Hamburg have discovered. © Daniel Triveau / CIFOR (CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Practically no other region in the world has a climate as variable as the Sahel. The climate in the region, which is several hundred kilometres wide, located south of the Sahara, and extends from the Atlantic coast of Senegal to Eritrea on the Red Sea, is dominated by the West African monsoon. This brings rain to the entire region from June to September while drought prevails in winter. The actual cause of this weather phenomenon is the higher position of the sun during the summer months, as a result of which temperatures in these latitudes increase. This has different effects on the land and ocean, however, as water can absorb more heat. “So the land heats up more in summer than the ocean,” says Jürgen Bader, explaining the principle of the monsoon. “Air rises above the warm continent and moisture flows in from the sea as a result.”

The intensity of the monsoon has varied repeatedly over time. Following a relatively wet period in the 1950s and 1960s, the Sahel experienced several periods of severe drought up to the mid-1980s, which claimed over 100,000 lives. Surprisingly, the rainfall increased again after that. Jong-yeon Park, Jürgen Bader and Daniela Matei from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg have now discovered the main cause of this. “We show that the warming of the Mediterranean – which is due to anthropogenic climate change in part – is the most important factor at work here,” says Daniela Matei. The Mediterranean should therefore also play a crucial role in whether it rains more or less in the Sahel in future.

Warmer seas outside the tropics bring more rainfall

The intensity of the monsoon in the Sahel generally depends on variations in the warming of the different marine regions. Climate researchers explain the drought of the 1970s and 1980s by the fact that the temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian and Pacific Oceans changed according to a particular pattern. These changes resulted in lower precipitation in the Sahel region.

And different temperatures in different marine regions also explain why there has been more rain again in the Sahel since the 1990s. “The different marine regions ‘fight it out’, so to speak,” explains Jürgen Bader. “If the temperatures of the tropical sea surfaces rise, the precipitation in the Sahel falls. As opposed to this, rising sea surface temperatures outside the tropics result in more rainfall in the Sahel.” As Jong-yeon Park and his supervisors, Daniela Matei and Jürgen Bader, discovered through model calculations carried out for his doctoral thesis, the West African monsoon was more intensive in the past 20 years than in the two preceding decades because the water in the Mediterranean was warmer than that in the tropical marine regions. Thus, the difference in temperature between these marine regions will be a crucial factor in future rainfall development in the Sahel.

Jong-yeon Park used the latest version of the Max Planck Earth System Model MPI-ESM for the calculations. He worked through various scenarios using different simulations. An interesting effect emerged from this process: “If you keep the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean constant, the rainfall in the Sahel does not increase,” he reports. In contrast, in other model experiments in which the Mediterranean heated up but the Arctic, North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans did not, more rain fell in the Sahel region.

The development of the monsoon depends on future sea temperatures

The researchers can also explain the effect: if the water temperatures in the Mediterranean increase, humidity also increases. It would appear that this increased moisture from the Mediterranean acts as a kind of spark for igniting the West African monsoon: in June it flows over Egypt in the direction of the Sahel. “So there is more precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season,” explains Jürgen Bader. The additional moisture strengthens the convection over the Sahel region. “More air rises which, in turn, intensifies the flow of humid air from the tropical Atlantic,” he adds.

Even if the scientists have now identified the temperature as the decisive factor for the development of the monsoon in the Sahel, whether or not the positive rainfall trend will continue in the future is dependent on the Mediterranean warming up at a higher rate than the tropical oceans. As the Hamburg-based researchers note in their article, more detailed research on the expected development of sea temperatures is needed to forecast this. And this is precisely what they plan to do in further studies.