Debacle: As Germany Adds 70 Gigawatts Of Green Electricity, Its Fossil Fuel Capacity Reaches New Record High!

The Fraunhofer Institute has an excellent page for monitoring Germany’s installed electrical energy production capacity.

Examining the charts, we see a stunning result for Germany: Despite the almost monster 70 gigawatts of renewable energy coming online since 2002, Germany’s fossil fuel capacity has risen and reached their highest level ever in 2014!

The following chart shows Germany’s installed renewable energy capacity (wind, solar, hydro and biomass) since 2012:

Germany installed renewable energy

Figure 1: blue = hydro; green = biomass: gray = wind, cream = solar. Source: https://energy-charts.de/power_inst_de.htm

From the above chart we that in 2002 Germany had just under 20 gigawatts of installed green capacity. Then came the renewable energy boom and that figure ballooned to almost 90 gigawatts – an amount that is enough to power the whole country on an average day.

You’d think with so much green energy capacity coming online since 2002 (close to 70 gigawatts), lots of fossil fuel capacity would get scaled back, i.e. replaced. But amazingly fossil fuel capacity has not dropped at all. To the contrary, it has reached a record high!

The next chart shows Germany’s installed fossil fuel capacity (gas, lignite, black coal), which we would have expected to drop massively due to all the green energy coming online:

Germany installed fossil energy capacity

Figure 2: Germany’s installed fossil fuel capacity for electricity generation. Source: https://energy-charts.de/power_inst_de.htm

Clearly that has not been the case. Here we see that 2010 had seen a record high with 76.70 gigawatts of installed capacity. But that mark was surpassed just last year, which saw 77.50 gigawatts of installed FOSSIL FUEL capacity – a record. The paradox is that as more green energy capacity came online, so did the unwanted, CO2-emitting fossil fuels!

Of course some of that had to do with Germany’s 2011 knee-jerk reaction of shutting down a number of its nuclear power plants in the wake of Fukushima accident, which meant fossil fuels had to jump in (because green energies are too volatile to fill in). From Figure 2 one also sees that coal capacity has been rising since 2011.

So what does this all mean? Green energies have not replaced any fossil fuel capacity in Germany. It means that consumers have gotten zero-climate protection for the 200 billion or so euros committed so far to green energies. All that money – for nothing!

Finally, the following chart shows all sources of Germany’s installed capacity:

Germany total installed capacity

Figure 3: Germany’s total installed capacity has skyrocketed to 177.14 gigawatts. But the demand for electricity averages only about 80 gigawatts and that has not risen at all over the past 13 years. Source: https://energy-charts.de/power_inst_de.htm

Clearly we see skyrocketing overall capacity when the overall demand for electricity remains steady. Today Germany has a total installed capacity of a whopping 177 gigawatts. The country’s average demand, however, is around just 80 gigawatts. This is an economics folly, and one that is on track to get even far more insane unless political leaders sober up quickly.

As Germany keeps bringing more and more green energy capacity on line, the more and more fossil capacity will need to be added for days when the wind and sun don’t show up.

 

Meet Germany’s “Sustainable” Transportation Of The Future (Worse Than The Communist East German Trabant)!

Boy I’m glad lived in the time that I’ve lived in so far: a postwar period when we saw relative peace, prosperity, free markets, spreading democracy and freedom, and immense technical progress. Those days now seem to be going in reverse.

Germany's car of the future

Germany’s vision for the future family car: The new family “pedelec”, big enough for 2 kids,and flowers from the garden center. Source: German Ministry of Environment.

I’m worried about my kids. I fear they will be living in a world that will be less democratic, one where the citizens will be enslaved by technology and live in markets that will be firmly under the control of a faceless, unaccountable technocracy run by so-called self-anointed master central planners. This is what is taking hold in today’s Germany.

Let them ride electric bikes

Germany’s Federal Ministry of Environment (UBA) has just released a publication on one of the key components it envisions for the country’s future mobility scheme for the masses: electric bicycles, or pedelecs, see above for an example variant.

The reports abstract tells us:

As part of an integrated transport planning scheme, pedelecs are an important component of sustainable mobility in cities, but also, most notably, in rural areas. From an environmental perspective, this type of electric vehicle should be embraced, actively promoted and encouraged in order to make pedelecs appealing to more user groups as an attractive, inexpensive and environmentally sound form of transport that constitutes an alternative to private motorized transport.”

The aim, of course, so they say, is to rescue the climate by reducing the emissions of “pollutant” CO2, especially by cars. And to do this, central planning by masterminds is the only way. The green trend is one that is taking us back to bad old days of notoriously inefficient communist-style central planning. One only needs to look at Germany’s “Energiewende” to realize just how bad the inefficiency is getting.

I don’t have anything against people buying e-bikes, of course, but I do have serious reservations about governments punishing us out of our dependable, safe, and efficient cars and throwing us a dog treat every time we move or behave in a way they feel is best.

I’ve looked at e-bikes, but found them far too expensive for the real benefit they offer.

Will replace few cars

Unfortunately the grand scheme of the e-bike will end up having a similar result as the renewable energies. The German government has so far committed 200 billion euros to expanding green energies by some 80 gigawatts, but they have yet to reduce the consumption of coal and gas fired electricity by any significant amount. More on that tomorrow. The result will be similar with e-bikes…few cars will get replaced.

Germany mobilty of the future

Weather for e-bikes. Unfortunately such days are rare in Germany and generally confined to tourism pamphlets. Source: German Ministry of Environment.

Utopian fantasy

One problem is the that the e-bike has become a utopian fantasy for the UBA. To illustrate this, just look at the photos it uses in its report. The powerful government agency would like us to think that the weather in Germany is like the weather in Phoenix, Arizona – in November, and year-round – where temperatures and conditions are very agreeable. The truth is that German weather is often very lousy, cold, wet, windy, and so traveling by e-bike is often far from pleasurable or practical.

People will still need to buy and own cars for bad weather and for most trips over 10 kilometers, or trips involving a passenger. E-bikes will replace very few cars – unless it gets forced. Nothing offers flexibility, comfort, speed and convenience like the automobile, and few people will be willing to give it up.

Cargo cycles, pedelecs for business trips

In its recommendation part of the report, the UBA urges political decision makers provide “ample financial and human resources for the development of bike-friendly infrastructure” and that businesses implement pedelecs in commercial traffic and employ “cargo cycles” and for transport tasks. It also recommends pedelecs for business trips and commuter journeys to work premises. “Many car and compact van trips can instead be made using pedelecs or bikes,” the UBA writes.

To me an e-bike sounds like a good way to limit the freedom and mobility of women who stay home to care for the family.

 

“Grid Overload” Blacks Out Northern Holland! Reports ‘Der Spiegel’ And Dutch Daily ‘AD’

According to the online Der Spiegel, northern Holland has been hit by “a widespread blackout” since earlier this morning.

The flagship German news magazine writes that major infrastructure, such as the capital Amsterdam and its international airport Schiphol and rail system, have been severely impacted.” Spiegel cites a report from Holland’s daily “AD” (formerly the “Algemeen Dagblad”.

The ad.nl site itself reports the power failure was caused by a fault at a high-voltage station in Diemen.”The station is one that handles 380,000 volts.” This would likely mean that its part of the power transmission system.

According to Spiegel (my emphasis):

The ‘AD’ newspaper reports that there was possibly an explosion at the station. According to Reuters news agency, grid operator Tennet attributed the outage to an overload of the power grid.”

The Dutch news site reports that fire departments and police officers have been mobilized to free people from stopped elevators and to beef up security in and around Amsterdam.

According to the reports, a Tennet spokesman says that power is being restored slowly and expects it to be in full service soon.

The question that remains unanswered is why the station exploded and why there was a “power grid overload”, as grid operator Tennet reported. Looking at neighboring German wind power feed in, we see there was a modest 4-gigawatt input surge of wind energy occurring early this morning between 3 and 4 a.m. That’s like four regular power plants coming online, or 1000 large wind turbines. But such fluctuations are becoming routine, and so it is probably unrelated.

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ASIDE:
And now here’s something totally unrelated to Holland power. Hat-tip: Bishop Hill

 

Bloodbath! Four Of Germany’s Top 12 “Capital Destroyers” Of 2014 Are Solar Tech Companies…Solarworld No.1!

No matter what data one presents to hardline proponents of solar energy, they choose to bury their heads in the sand and hope it isn’t so. Today Spiegel presents data that are so striking that they could even jolt those caught deepest in fantasy back to reality.

Online Spiegel has an article today dubbed: Market Losers: These German Companies Destroyed The Most Capital. It lists the top capital destroyers of 2014. I had a feeling I’d find find maybe one or two solar companies, but it turns out that it’s actually far worse than I thought. Four of the top 12 are solar companies!

The number one German capital destroyer of 2014, Spiegel writes, was Solarworld. “The company lost almost 82 percent of its value. Since 2010 the share price has gone in the cellar, falling 99.5 percent, …”

Not only Solarwold made it on the list of the Top German Destroyers Of Capital, but so did 3 other solar technology companies. Brandenburg-based Aleo Solar took 6th place, losing 57 percent of its value in 2014.

The solar technology bloodbath was extended by 1999-founded Phoenix Solar, which lost 96% of its value last year, Spiegel writes. The company took 9th place.

Solar technology company SMA took 12th place on the list of the top German capital destroyers. No industry comes close to destroying the amount of capital that the solar industry wiped out last year. The big losers are from the solar industry, hands down.

The capital destruction that is Germany’s highly ballyhooed “Energiewende” (transition to renewable energy) does not end in the solar sector, but extends to the conventional power companies, who are reeling from the impacts of the subsidized renewable energies. Energy giants RWE and E.on come in at 35th and 43rd place respectively.

One senses that Germany’s entire energy industry is breaking up and falling to pieces.

It is truly mind-boggling how anyone can say solar energies are the future – unless you’re an insolvency administrator, that is.

 

Climate Audit On Rahmstorf/Mann: “Dreck”…”Reputable Science Community Should Cringe With Embarrassment”!

Global warming science nemesis Steve McIntyre of the solid Climate Audit site calls the new paper by Rahmstorf and Mann making claims about Atlantic Ocean currents based on proxies rather than on measurements “much worse than we thought.”

Hat-tip: Reader BruceC

Rarely does one see science get so harshly criticized.

“Dreck” in peer-reviewed literature

One problem, McIntyre writes, is that Rahmstorf’s and Mann’s results are not based on proxies for Atlantic current velocity, but on a network consisting of iffy proxy series which are “statistically indistinguishable from white noise“. McIntyre comments: “It’s hard to understand why anyone would seriously believe (let alone publish in peer reviewed literature) that Atlantic ocean currents could be reconstructed by such dreck...”.

Obviously Rahmstorf and Mann are unable to come to terms with the results derived from real observed data, and thus feel compelled to create another reality based of very fuzzy, indirect data that can be interpreted as desired.

“Balderdash” getting by peer-review process

So how does “dreck” end up getting published in journals? McIntyre quotes Andrew Weaver:

They let these random diatribes of absolute, incorrect nonsense get published. They’re not able to determine if what’s being said is correct or not, or whether it’s just absolute balderdash.” […].

The reputable climate science community should collectively cringe with embarrassment.”

The Canadian statistics expert also writes that the proxies that Mann and Rahmstorf used “do not contain any useful information on the past history of the AMOC.”

McIntyre ends by assigning readers little homework. The answers aren’t that tough.

Read entire post here.

I think an investigation needs to be launched to determine why taxpayer money is being spent on creating such rubbish. Taxpayers have the right to get answers.

 

Georgia Tech Climatologist Curry: “No Sign Of Slowdown” In AMOC…Sees Atlantic “Arctic Sea Ice Recovery”, Hints Of Greenland Cooling

Michael Mann’s and Stefan Rahmstorf’s recent AMOC paper has been promptly and widely discredited since it came out, see here WUWT, WUWT, and NTZ. The sharp criticism has since picked up.

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi for example blasted the paper in a comment at WUWT, calling the claims “nonsense” and reminded that renowned climatology expert William Gray had predicted what is now happening already 40 years ago.

Bastardi wrote that it is all part of the natural end-game of the Atlantic’s warm cycle. The veteran meteorologist rated the paper’s claims:

This idea borders on delusional, an attempt to self verify the idea that co2 is actually influencing the oceans, laughable since the heat capacity of the oceans is 1000x air, and co2 is only .04% of the air.”

Curry calls the paper’s methodology “remarkable”

The latest high profile climate scientist criticizing the work is Georgia Tech climatologist Judith Curry at her Climate Etc. site here. First she is unconvinced of the paper’s methodology of using climate model simulations and “Mannian proxy analysis” of decadal to millennial scale ocean circulations and internal variability in place of direct measurements, calling it “remarkable”.

She poses the rhetorical question:

So, who you gonna believe? Climate models and Mannian proxies, or direct and satellite observations of ocean circulation?

AMO is behind the changes

Curry says that the cooling of the high latitude North Atlantic can be traced back to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which now appears to be at the start of its descent into its cool phase. She writes there is some evidence that the warm phase of the AMO already peaked circa 2007. Moreover she hints that the transition could be sharp, as was the case in the late 1990s.

Curry scoffs at the notion that climate change is likely behind the cooling of the North Atlantic. In her summary she writes (my emphasis).

What we are seeing in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic is natural variability, predominantly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Based open observational analyses, there is no sign of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Now, I am very interested in the AMO, since it strongly influences Atlantic hurricanes, Arctic sea ice, and Greenland climate.  We are already seeing a recovery of the Atlantic sector of the Arctic sea ice, and some hints of cooling in Greenland.”

Dead At Birth! German Warmist Scientists Slap Down Rahmstorf/Mann AMOC Paper: “Offers No Strong Indication”

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has been loudly trumpeting its latest paper on Atlantic ocean overturning circulation today, claiming there’s been an “exceptional twentieth-century slowdown“. The authors, who include Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael E. Mann, even suggest that the “possible cause of the weakening is climate change“.

Some sites, like Climate Central here, have been unable to contain their glee over the news of the potential climate-change induced oceanic shifts being served up by the PIK. For example the site called the findings “dramatic” and writes (my emphasis):

If the climate relationships identified by the researchers, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, hold true, growing melt rates in Greenland ‘might lead to further weakening of the AMOC within a decade or two, and possibly even more permanent shutdown’ of key components of it, the scientists warn in their paper.”

The “new” weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
Credit: Nature Climate Change.

Spiegel and the FAZ pour cold water on paper

Fortunately other media sources have been somewhat more critical and report that there’s skepticism on the paper – coming from warmist circles, no less.

Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) here for example writes that Rahmstorf is puzzled that a part of the north Atlantic has cooled over the last 100 years: “The cooling was stronger than what most computer models calculated it would be,” the FAZ reports. Models wrong again!

The FAZ then writes that, “An independent expert assesses the estimation skeptically”, adding:

Climate scientist Martin Visbeck of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel sees Rahmstorf’s assertion of the results critically: ‘The study’s focus on the sub-polar part of the Atlantic and the spectral analysis are interesting,’ he says. But there are other AMOC assessments that point to a completely other development. The paper does not offer any strong indication of the development of the AMOC during the past fifty years.”

When a warmist dismisses another warmists’s science, then you know it’s likely pretty slipshod.

Der Spiegel reports that the study is lacking

German flagship online news weekly Der Spiegel echoed the FAZ, quoting Michael Hofstätter of the Austrian national weather service: the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna. Spiegel writes that Hofstätter also “rates the Rahmstorf study with skepticism“.

Spiegel reminds its readers: “Most studies are assuming that the current is in fact stronger.” Spiegel continues:

The temperature fluctuations could also be a ‘temporary natural variation,’ Hofstätter told the online service of the ORF. The measurements covered a time period that was too short to allow concrete forecasts.”

Other websites censored reports of skepticism and uncertainty

For example the end-of-climate conspiracy theorists at German alarmist site Klimaretter of course could not be bothered to mention the study is disputed even by fellow warmist scientists.

Dr. Mann blocks critic at Twitter

Michael Mann also did not want to hear any non-alarmist opinion as well. At Facebook he blocked fair comments left by Jaime Jessop, who kept a screen-shot:

Overall the latest paper by Rahmstorf and Mann did not even survive birth.

Anthony Watts has lots more here.

 

How About Protecting Today’s Real People, And Not An Impossible Climate Of The Future?

Reader Frederick Colbourne put Bangladesh and its woes in what I feel is a proper perspective. I’ve upgraded his comment to a post.

Once again it is a sad story that politicians are using computer-generated climate disasters of the far future as a cynical, lethal and obscenely expensive distraction of today’s real problems. The money flowing into the folly of “climate protection” would have been far better spent had it been invested where it was really needed. Worse it is distraction from the political failures of those calling for climate protection.

Comment by Frederick Colbourne:

Among journalists (and the public too) there is profound ignorance about the physical Earth. I recall from a beginning physical geography course that deltas subside and that also the great rivers gradually extend seaward by depositing silt and clay.

When I worked in Bangladesh last year on an urban development project last year, I found that other false claims are being made too: that offshore islands are being destroyed by climate change. However, the reality is that offshore islands drift with currents in the Gulf of Bengal.

So many myths about the Earth! There are even vestiges of the Garden of Eden myth: the belief that at some time in the past, the Earth was benign. Nature is neither benign nor malevolent.

Nature is indifferent to the affairs of Man. The geographical disadvantages of eastern Bengal are ancient but made worse by growth of population to over 100 million people in a land that has few resources apart from land and rivers. These rivers flood about 40% of the land each year.

Religious and political conflicts led to partition of British India 65 years ago. Since then Bangladeshis have suffered a war of independence and military rule, either overt or behind the scenes. Bangladesh is one of the worst-governed countries in the world.

Climate change is the least of Bangladesh’s worries.”

 

Truth Sinks Into The Mud: How German N24 Public Television Grossly Misled Viewers On Sea Level

German public television seems to have gotten extremely sloppy and misleading lately. Gone are the days of critical reporting and fact-checking, it seems.

Not long ago flagship ARD television, using tricky wording, sadly misled viewers into thinking that the more than 15,000 deaths caused by the Japan tsunami of 2011 were caused by the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown (Reality: not a single death has yet to be attributed to leaked radiation).

Sundarbans

Image licensed under public domain via Wikimedia Commons

The latest gross deception, by what Germans are starting to call the “Lügenpresse” (the lying press), comes from German NDR public television site which got the entire science on Sundarbans sea level rise wrong.

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River delta in India and Bangladesh sinking away: N24 forgets to mention sediment compaction as an important reason for rising waters

Climatic apocalyptic mood on 19 February 2015 at n24:

Extreme climate change: The Sundarbans have 15 years left
Climate change is threatening all of humanity, but some are especially impacted. In the Sundarbans already the livelihoods of 13 million people are threatened. […] Sea water has already swept over the spot of land on the Indian island of Bali where Mondol grew rice and operated fish ponds – just like earlier generations since about 200 years ago. Water has taken everything else away – and one day it will also take away the hut. ‘Every year we have to move a bit further inland,’ he says. Bali is considerably smaller than the Indonesian island with the same name. Mondol lives in the Sundarbans, a low lying delta region between India and Bangladesh that has 200 islands and round about 13 million inhabitants. Most of the homes are in an impoverished condition. The sea level in the region is rising about twice as fast as the global average. Tens of thousands already have become homeless. According to estimates by scientists, a large part of the Sundarbans could be submerged in 15 to 25 years.”

Delta regions are known for the gradual stabilization of their sediment – so-called compaction – sinking. This small detail was simply left out by n24. Here on April 30, 2013 Nature India explicitly pointed out that the flooding was not solely due to climate change:

Seven years after the first report on the ‘vanishing islands’ of Sundarbans, Subhra Priyadarshini revisits the fragile delta in the Bay of Bengal to find that it is not just climate change that threatens the existence of this world heritage mangrove tiger-land spread across the Indo-Bangladesh border. […]In the last 25 years, the rate of relative sea level rise comes close to 8 mm/year, significantly higher than the rate of 3.14 mm/year in the previous decade,’ he says. In a recent report he co-authored for the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)3, Hazra says besides global warming and the subsequent thermal expansion of water, the rather rapid subsidence of the Bengal delta (2-4 mm/year), compaction of silt and other local causes may be responsible for the exceptionally high rate of relative sea level rise in the Indian Sundarbans.

Science has already intensively studied the subsidence problem, and so it is peculiar that n24 did not mention this result. Geologist Till Hanebuth reported in 2013 on results from the delta region of Bangladesh. His team found natural subsidence of more than 4 millimeters per year. This rate is considerably higher than the climatic-related sea level rise. In the description of results of a project by the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Association) it is stated:

Assessing the recent subsidence of the central coastal Delta of Bangladesh by dating submerged kilns The densely populated low lying Ganges‐Brahmaputra Delta is highly vulnerable to the global sea‐ level rise. In order to estimate the subsidence of the delta, we examined submerged salt‐producing kiln sites in the coastal Sundarbans. These kilns were built just above the previous winterly spring high‐tide level, but are currently located ~155 cm below the corresponding modern level. According to optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, the kilns were ultimately fired ~300 years ago and salt production was terminated by a catastrophic event, which affected the kiln sites at different levels and locations. AMS‐14C ages of charcoal at the kiln’s base and associated mangrove stump horizons support the OSL dates. Based on the elevations and the ages, the 300‐year‐average rate of sinking of the outer delta is 5.2 ± 1.2 mm/a, which includes 0.8 mm/a of eustatic sea‐level rise. Reasonably postulating that the subsidence rate will not change during the next few decades and accepting the estimates of current sea‐ level rise of 1.8–3.0 mm/a or 2.7–7.1 mm/a, a RSL rise of 6.4 ± 1.7 mm/a or 8.9 ± 3.3 mm/a, respectively, must be assumed along the Sundarbans coasts.”

Similar subsidence was also found by Stanley & Hait (2000).

 

Biology Teacher Sends Letter To Ernst Klett Verlag Concerning ‘Manipulative And Unserious’ German School Textbooks

A few years ago at a social event I had a brief discussion with a secondary school teacher who happened to be on some sort of committee in Hannover which decided the textbooks the children at Lower Saxony upper secondary schools were to use.

On that subject I told her I thought that the geography textbook our children were using was designed to indoctrinate the kids on the subject of climate change, and that it dissuaded them from critical thinking on the subject. My opinion was that the schools should teach children, and not indoctrinate them.

Needless to say, I got quite a stern, German-style reaction. I’ll never forget the icy, piercing look in her eyes, one that made my grade school principal Arlene Simons look angelic by comparison. Parents, especially cowboys, obviously were not expected to question the state when it comes matters concerning the education of children.

The following is a letter written by a biology teacher, posted at Die kalte Sonne site. It was sent to one of Germnay’s larger textbook publishers: Ernst Klett Verlag.

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Answers are requested: How do school textbook publishers handle the climate discussion?

To: Klett-Schulbuchverlag
From: Teacher of Biology and Chemistry [anonymous in order to avoid problems with colleagues]

Sent: 18 March 2015

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Because the general contact-page at your website is blocked, I am using this address and requesting that you pass my comments on the subject of climate change on to the responsible editors:

In the preparation of my lessons (Biology Grade 7) in your textbook Prisma Biology 2, ISBN 978-3-12-068390-2, I came upon an illustration depicting the causes of climate change which I find to be unserious and unscientific. Under the heading, ‘The greenhouse effect is being enhanced’ one finds the following text: ‘Over the past decades scientists have been measuring a steady increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. At the same time the average temperature of the earth has risen because the heat trapping gas barrier is getting tighter…“

Here the illusion of a causal relationship is being given, when this is everything but certain. Why do you not provide the development of the mean global temperature over the past? This would allow the pupils to see that warm periods have always occurred, long before man could have had an impact on the earth’s atmosphere. The pupils would be able to recognize that the climate in the Middle Ages was similar to today’s climate and that it provided significant benefits to the people living back then.

My view is that it is scientifically unserious to show only an increase over the last decades. Here it is being suggested that there weren’t any climate changes earlier.

Why don’t you show how little the share of man’s CO2 is in the earth’s entire CO2 budget?

Why do you not mention the ongoing discussion on CO2 climate sensitivity?

Why do you not mention that the global mean temperature of the earth has not risen over the past 18 years, even though the CO2 atmospheric concentration of the atmosphere has risen during the same period?

Why do you not mention that many studies have shown that in the past temperature increased first, and then CO2 and methane concentration followed, and thus the driving force for the earth’s temperature could not have been these gases?

And why do you fail to mention that the climate models, which projected a significant warming of the earth, have been proven false?

What I find to be especially manipulative and unserious is the exercise: ‘Evaluate the single information sources using this sentence: Who posted what, and with what intention, in the Internet?“ This is all about speculation and the manipulation of 13-year olds who do not yet possess the knowledge necessary for assessing the seriousness of a source in the Internet. It may very well be that the ideological stipulations of political parties may lead a school textbook publisher to depict the reality as such, so that it fits the political narrative. But this has absolutely nothing to do with science. Serious would be to show in a neutral manner the different views on climate changes of the last 150 years, side by side, and to provide as many of the known facts as possible.

Yours sincerely”

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Well, don’t expect the Lower Saxony Ministry of Education to give this letter an A+ by any means.

Today Germany’s kids are being told what they can be critical about, and climate science is certainly not one of them. Even the concerns of parents are being dismissed by what appears to be a state apparatus that has gotten excessively arrogant on the subject. Indeed it’s back to school – the old nasty German one of thought control.

And it’s unbelievable that the climate of intimidation in academia has become so aggressive that the biology teacher fears being identified, and thus chose to stay anonymous. This should make anyone pause and think.

German Climate Witch-Hunting Under New Management…Wanted: “Explosive Material” On Climate Skeptics

In former times, the job of official climate witch-hunting had been one of the German Ministry of Environment, which even went so far as to identify, target and attack skeptic US and German scientists and journalists – all because they held non-alarmist views on climate change. Fortunately that activity turned out to be somewhat embarrassing, and thus the activist Ministry thought that it was best to end it.

But not to worry, the witch-hunting business has found a new home: at the site of the end-of-world climate conspiracy theorists: Klimaretter.info – a leading alarmist site run by a group of highly influential climate doom-infatuated persons.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne

Klimaretter.info (in English: climate rescuers.info) is now offering a new, very special service to readers: They now have the chance to deliver “explosive disclosure material” on climate skeptics and their clandestine activities at an anonymous letter box: The klimaretter.info site explains:

Here you can discretely and anonymously deposit internal documents, information, data sets, bank accounts, and similar material when you think that the public needs to know about it.”

The klimaretter site even promises that materials will be handled in “strict confidentiality”, and that tracing back to the discloser will not be possible.

Many of us of course will naturally view this as a step back into the old authoritarian, go-after-the-enemy days in darker German times. Is this all they have left? Are they totally bankrupt of argument in the arena of debate that they now have to resort to gutter skimming and dumpster diving? Perhaps they ought to get in touch with Peter Gleick to find out how to acquire explosive documents.

So who are these people at klimaretter.info? A look at their website tells us a lot already. It’s mainly made up of a group of powerful lobbyists working on behalf of the renewable energies industry, or the reinsurance industry. Among the publishers at Klimaretter are Hartmut Grassl, former director of the WMO and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. According to other sources, it turns out he is also a foundation board member of reinsurer Munich Re!

Other klimaretter.info publishers like Claudia Kemfert, Gero Lücking, Jens Mühlhaus, Matthias Willenbacher or Klaus Franz are directly connected to the multi-billion dollar green energy industry. Kemfert is also a member of the Club of Rome.

Pots ought to be careful about going around and calling others black.

Send in your explosive documents

Already skeptic site Die kalte Sonne tells here that the klimaretter.info secret letter box has gotten some success. Die kalte Sonne writes that they have delivered a comprehensive package of “explosive material” consisting of (1) important scientific papers on the sun’s impact on climate, (2) a bank statement of an explosive visit to a pizza eatery concerning the last international climate conference and (3) discrete sea level data showing an average rise of 1.5 mm/yr. But don’t get your hopes up that we’ll be reading about that at Spiegel, or Die Zeit.

Die kalte Sonne also would like to know who are the generous donators to Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project.

If readers here should happen to have in your possession explosive information like photos, documents, bank transactions, e-mails, datasets, etc. that you feel the public needs to know about, then do send them to the confidential letterbox of the climate rescuers at klimaretter.info here. Perhaps you ought to send them the cream of the Climategate e-mails.

 

Israeli Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv: “Solar Activity Responsible For About Half Of 20th Century Global Warming”

Israeli scientist Nir Shaviv recently posted at his site an article on the effects of cosmic radiation on climate. At the end he summarizes:

The results have two particularly interesting implications. First, they bring yet another link between the galactic environment and the terrestrial climate. Although there is no direct evidence that cosmic rays are the actual link on the 32-million-year time scale, as far as we know, they are the only link that can explain these observations. This in turn strengthens the idea that cosmic ray variations through solar activity affect the climate. In this picture, solar activity increase is responsible for about half of the twentieth-century global warming through a reduction of the cosmic ray flux, leaving less to be explained by anthropogenic activity. Also, in this picture, climate sensitivity is on the low side (perhaps 1 to 1.5°C increase per CO2 doubling, compared with the 1.5 to 4.5°C range advocated by the IPCC), implying that the future is not as dire as often prophesied.

The second interesting implication is the actual value of the 32-million-year oscillation. The relatively short period indicates that there is more mass in the galactic plane than accounted for in stars and interstellar gas, leaving the remainder as dark matter. However, this amount of dark matter is more than would be expected if it were distributed sparsely in a puffed-up halo as is generally expected. In other words, this excess mass requires at least some of the dark matter to condense into the disk. If correct, it will close a circle that started in the 1960s when Edward Hill and Jan Oort suggested, based on kinematic evidence, that there is more matter at the plane than observed. This inconsistency and indirect evidence for dark matter was also advocated by John Bahcall, who for many years was a Faculty member here at the IAS.”

Read the entire post here.

 

German Wind Power Goes Completely AWOL For The 11th Time This Year…Fossils, Nuclear Again To The Rescue!

It’s a good thing Germany still has a lot of conventional power supply from coal and nuclear on line. Otherwise the entire country would have blacked out this morning during the partial eclipse of the sun. Conventional fuel saved the day.

As the following diagram depicts, there was almost no wind output from Germany’s 40 or so gigawatts of installed wind capacity over the last 36 hours. The country’s wind turbines called it an early weekend.

Agora mar 19-20

Wind energy (blue) has virtually disappeared over the last 36 hours. Solar disappears every night, and often during the day in the wintertime. Often less than 1% of Germany’s electrical demand gets supplied by wind and sun. Source: agora.

German wind and solar power disappeared this morning and over the last 36 hours, leaving fossil and nuclear power to step in to the rescue. The following chart of Germany’s energy supply and demand shows how wind has gone AWOL already 11 times since January 1:

Agora Mar 20

Since January 1, Wind power failed to show up some 11 times. On average about 85% of the installed capacity doesn’t show up to begin with. Charts cropped from agora.

The point here is that it doesn’t matter how much wind and solar capacity gets installed. Once the wind stops blowing and the sun does’t shine, which is often enough, you get no power – period. Imagine if a doctor sold you an artificial heart that could run for 100 years, yet the heart pumped only sporadically, sometimes at only a beat or two a minute over for hours or even days. So it is with wind and solar energy. Our society needs a steady and constant supply; it can’t afford to constatntly stall and sputter, otherwise it collapses and dies.

Today’s partial eclipse had little impact

Today’s partial eclipse of the sun did not strain Germany’s power grid as much as feared. Fog and cloudy weather over northern Germany helped to dampen the feared fluctuation. Sunny day projections of 12,000 megawatts of power going offline in just an hour followed by 19,000 megawatts surging online in an hour warned that the grid could be destabilized. Here’s what the sunny-day scenario solar feed-in looked like:

Solar eclipse_1

Sunny day solar power feed in into grid during eclipse. Source: cropped form here. Animation by: pvspeicher.htw-berlin.de.

What actually happened was nowhere near as bad as feared:

Eclipse_2

Fluctuation was far less than feared. Source: SMA.

As the sun’s energy disappeared, conventional fuels saved the day.

What follows is a photo I took outside near peak time of the partial eclipse in northwest Germany, where it was overcast:

Solar eclipse_2

 10:45 this morning. Looks like a typical dreary day in north Germany.

In general, power companies and grid operators had months to prepare for the eclipse. Lapses and wild fluctuations in wind and sun energy are common (see above) and so today’s eclipse was manageable though with considerable effort. Power companies asked large consumers such as aluminum smelters, cement plants and glass manufacturers to ramp down their production before the event. That would not have been necessary with conventional power.

 

German Power Giant EnBW Warns Customers Of Power Disruptions From Tomorrow’s European Solar Eclipse

Hat-tip: European Institute for Climate and Energy

German power producer EnBW has sent a letter (see below) to its customers informing them that the situation was under control as tomorrow’s solar eclipse is poised to put Germany in partial darkness shortly before noon and to test the country’s power grid stability.

Because of the eclipse, up to 12,000 megewatts of PV power could disappear from the grid (if it’s sunny) in a mere hour at around 10:00 a.m. Then, shortly before noon, 19,000 megawatts could surge into the power grid in just an hour as the moon allows the sun’s radiation to shine back in unhindered.

EnBW warns of possible grid instability and the disruption of frequency sensitive industrial machinery as a result. In Germany power generators themselves are not allowed to operate power grids. Independent grid operating companies perform that task.

EIKE writes that the letter seems to pre-emptively point the finger at the grid operators should blackouts or disruptions occur.

What follows is that letter, translated in English (German version thanks to J. Kowatsch):

========================

Re: Partial solar eclipse on March 20, 2015:
Your power supply is in good hands

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

On March 20, 2015, a partial solar eclipse will occur over parts of Europe. This natural phenomenon will also have impacts on the power supply. As your partner for all matters concerning energy, we have put together a few important facts.

The solar eclipse will begin in Spain and end in Scandinavia. In Germany between ca. 9:10 and 12:00 noon up to 82% of the sun will be covered by the moon. If the sky is overcast, then the possible impacts will be very limited. However on a sunny day it will lead to a drop in power generation from PV systems of up to 12,000 megawatts in Germany, which is equivalent to 12 large power plants. Beginning at about 10:50 the power will then increase by up to 19,000 megawatts within about an hour.

The four power transmission grid operators in Germany are responsible for ensuring the usual system stability. The challenge is to completely balance the drop and the later subsequent rapid increase in power fed in from the PV systems by using many flexible power generations units. The power transmission grid operators have prepared well for this event. The employees at the grid control and switching centers have been trained for this special situation, and control centers will be manned with extra personnel on March 20, 2015.

Yet the chances of disruptions cannot be fully excluded. For example frequency fluctuations can effect sensitive systems (CNC machines, robots and other computer-controlled systems, etc.). Should you have any concerns, we recommend that you drive your systems down to a stable condition.

You will find more information at a mutual press release by the four power transmission grid operators dated 23 February, 2015, which we have enclosed. Moreover you will find at “Zeit online“ a fuctuial article as well as a video animation [scroll down] which illustrates very nicely the possible impacts on power feed-in by PV systems in Germany on a sunny day: http://blog.zeit.de/gruenegeschaefte/2015/03/03/sonnenfinsternis-energiewende/.

Have you got questions? Then give me a call. I’m gladly at your service.

Sincerely

Sales & Solutions GmbH

i.V. Christoph Schade

Mail: c.schade@EnBW.com

Enclosed: Press release by the four power transmission grid operators from February 23.

=============================

 

Green Progress: World’s Most Efficient Gas-Fired Turbines To Get Shut Down Due To “Energiewende”!

With a whopping efficiency of up to 60.75%, it is considered the world’s most efficient gas-fired power plant; it’s the ultimate when it comes to turbine engineering (see following promo video).

“Answer to climate protection” to be mothballed! World’s most efficient gas-fired power generation plant to shut down as a consequence of a run-amok “Energiewende”.

No other conventional power plant on earth is able to extract as much energy from what gets put into it. And because it burns natural gas, the 1400-megawatt Irsching gas-fired Siemens SGT5-8000H power generating units emit relatively low amounts of CO2 and pollutants.

Yet its operators, among them energy giant E.on, are aiming to mothball the recently installed modern gas-fired facility for good. The reason? It’s losing money because Germany’s renewable energy feed-in act, which allows conventional plants to operate only when the wind and sun aren’t putting out.

Hat-tip: EIKE here.

The Irsching gas-fired power generators are unable to operate at a profit because the facility has to yield to wind and solar energy, which are mandated to be fed first into the grid by law. The result: the modern gas turbines are forced to operate intermittently when the sun and wind are AWOL, which means they are unable to cover their high operating costs. The dirtier coal power plants have lower operating costs, and so they are making a comeback. Result: the green energy revolution is leading to more CO2 emissions, and not less.

According to FOCUS magazine, the Irsching gas-fired plant located near Ingolstadt in southern Germany has become “the symbol of the faulty development of the Energiewende” – Germany’s ongoing transition to green energies.

Industry association leader Hans-Joachim Reck, complains: “It’s the paradox of the Energiewende that now the cleanest and most efficient power plants in Germany, the gas-fired power plants, cannot earn money.”

The gas-fired Irsching facility isn’t the only one that risks being shut down because they are prevented from operating at their capacities and efficiencies. FOCUS writes: “approximately 50 applications to shut down similar plants have been submitted across Germany“. As more and more erratic solar and wind power come online, the less efficiently gas-fired plants operate. As a result, Germany’s stable component of its power grid is eroding rapidly.

So how bad has Germany’s energy policy become, outsiders may ask? At EIKE economist Dr. Klaus Peter Krause tells us:

What the political leadership has inflicted with its ‘Energiewende’ and continues to inflict is a ‘farce to the tenth power’. When it comes to the financial burden for Germans and the entire [German] economy, it will surpass the also ruinous euro bailout policy.”

That’s awfully ruinous.

The shutting down of gas-fired plants has already put the south German power supply stability at risk. Already the federal government has intervened and forbidden the mothballing of several gas power plants. This of course will only serve to further burden the power utilities with even more costs. Eventually those too will get passed on to German consumers, who are already paying the second highest electricity rates in the world. Little wonder 600,000 households can no longer afford it.

So far only about a quarter of Germany’s power is supplied by renewables. The target is 90% by 2050. Little wonder many experts think the whole system is going to collapse well before that.