Unsustainable Folly: Cost Of Germany’s “Energiewende” To Soar To €31 Billion In 2016 Alone!

According to the Institute of German Business (IW) the cost of Germany’s once highly touted “Energiewende” (transition to green energy) will soar to a whopping €31 billion ($35 billion) in 2016 alone, thus further burdening the already ailing German consumer.

Hat-tip: Gerti.

That’s a huge sum of money for the country of 80 million citizens. So, for all that money, are they now getting more beautiful weather and great results cutting back “climate-harmful” CO2 emissions? You’d certainly hope so. Sadly, the answer is s big fat “NEIN”.

Nothing in return for the money

In fact Germany’s CO2 emissions have not dropped at all over the past 7 years, and even went up a percentage point last year. Moreover, weather conditions continue today as they always have: typically rainy, cool, gray, windy and raw. For the roughly €1200 or so per year the average household has to fork out each year, it all sounds like an awfully raw deal (unless you happen to be one of the lucky few making money hand over fist in the scam). And that €1200 figure is only going to go up rapidly in the years ahead.

The www.finanznachrichten.de writes that the 2016 figure is about 3 billion (11%) more than a year earlier (2015). That’s unsustainable burden growth.

“Grid stabilization” adding to the costs

One reason for the ever increasing costs, the site writes, is the “costs for power grid stabilization“. As more highly fluctuating, weather-dependent power comes online, the costlier the grid stabilization measures become. What was once a highly stable energy supply system requiring intervention only a dozen times per year, now requires tens of thousands of interventions by the grid operators each year.

Often times wind and solar parks are forced to be taken offline to prevent the grid from getting toasted by power surges from wind gusts and sun bursts. In such cases, the wind and sun park operators are paid whether they produce or not. Last year consumers were saddled with over half a billion euros from such “unproduced energy” costs. The Energiewende is morphing into a central planning folly of the scale matched only by the Venezuelan Chavez communists.

30% higher electric bills by 2030

Another reason cited for the exploding costs is the continued new installation of wind and sun energy generation systems. Thus it is little wonder that that leading German politicians, such as Michael Fuchs, are getting antsy and calling a stop of the construction of new wind parks for which there are no power transmission lines. If this is not done, Fuchs says, German households face 30% higher electric bills already by 2020.

Just a matter of time before the fuses start blowing.

 

Central Europe April 2016 Comes In Somewhat Cooler Than Normal …As Cold Lingers Into The Start Of May

It’s early May and most of the oaks in northern Germany are just beginning to see their leaves come out.

Spring has definitely arrived late this year. Fortunately that is about to change as warm temperatures are forecast for upcoming long holiday weekend.

Germany’s DWD national weather service has published the preliminary weather results for Germany for the month of April 2016. Data recorded by its approximately 2000 weather stations placed across the country show that the month was 0.3°C cooler than the 1981 – 2010 long-term meteorological mean.

The month started on the warm side, but the second half deteriorated as air Arctic plunged across the country, delivering unexpected late April snows and frosty .conditions.

Yesterday, May 1st, even saw half a meter of fresh snow at the Northern Italian Prali Ski Area!

The bitter cold has hit southern Germany’s winemakers hard, so reports the online SWR here:

The cold nights of the past week have damaged the blossoms of the vineyeards across vast areas of Rhineland Palatinate. In unfavorable areas massive losses are feared.”

Precipitation for April 2016, the DWD reports, was exactly normal with 58 liters of precipitation falling per square meter. All in all April was an entirely a normal one with no sign of any climate change. If anything, it was right colder than it is supposed to be.

 

North Atlantic Heat Content Plunges… Meteorologist Warns Of “Serious Implications” On US Climate, Sea Ice!

Paul Dorian of the excellent weather science site Vencore Weather here brings us up to date on the latest on one of the most powerful natural cycles driving our North Atlantic climate: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) cycles.

Here I’ll sum up the main points. Of course do read the entire post at Vencore for all the details.

In a nutshell the sites writes that the North Atlantic “is now showing signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere”.

Vencore supplies the following chart of North Atlantic heat content (0 – 700 meters deep):

Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic since January 1955. The thin line indicates monthly values and the thick line represents the simple running 37 month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), climate4you.com. Last period shown: October-December 2015.

Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic since January 1955. The thick line represents the simple running 37-month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), climate4you.com. Last period shown: October-December 2015.

The next chart Vencore provides below is one of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) since the 1870s.

Clearly we see that huge climate driver has been cyclic and that the past 20 years have been marked by very warm SSTs.

Observed AMO index, defined as detrended 10-year low-pass filtered annual mean area-averaged SST anomalies over the North Atlantic basin (0N-65N, 80W-0E), using HadISST dataset (Rayner, et al., 2003) for the period 1870-2015.;  courtesy NCAR: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo

Observed AMO index, filtered annual mean area-averaged SST anomalies over the North Atlantic basin (0N-65N, 80W-0E), using HadISST dataset (Rayner, et al., 2003) for the period 1870-2015.;  courtesy NCAR: climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/-amo.

Little wonder the North Atlantic region has been seen warmer than normal conditions over the past 2 decades.

But that warmth appears to be waning as the North Atlantic is now heading toward its cool phase. That cooling down is confirmed by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).  Note how the transitions take place quickly, in a matter of just a few years.

Serious impacts on sea ice and winters

Vencore writes that the North Atlantic cooling is likely going to have some “significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice areal extent over the coming decades“, and thus could be a major blow to climate science forecasts of a melting Arctic. If the North Atlantic cooling continues, then Vencore warns we should expect Arctic sea ice to return to 1990s levels, if not even greater.

The cooling North Atlantic will also have serious ramifications for North America’s climate. Vencore reports that winters over large parts of North America are much colder during cool North Atlantic phases, and significantly warmer during the warm phases. So if these trends should continue, it means that the days of the global warming scare are numbered, or they will have to move to the other hemisphere.

 

Devastating Finding: New Study Deems Solar PV Systems In Europe “A Non-Sustainable Energy Sink”!

Despite hyped claims, much doubt has emerged over the years on whether or not renewable energies such as wind and sun would able to substitute fossil and nuclear energy.

Europe’s PV energy systems are not working out, new study finds. Photo: Prof. Knut Löschke. Source: www.eike-klima-energie.eu/.

Getting a sound answer to that question naturally would have been a reasonable step to take long before countries rushed to invest tens of billions of euros in solar in cloudy northern Europe.

A brand new paper by Swiss researchers Ferruccio Ferroni and Robert J. Hopkirk published by the Journal of Energy Policy now further intensifies that doubt, finding that solar power remains an inefficient way to produce energy in most cases. It’s beginning to appear that Europe has wasted tens of billions of euros in a mass energy folly.

Thus it should not surprise anyone that Germany’s fossil fuel consumption has not been falling over the past years.

The paper’s abstract states:

Many people believe renewable energy sources to be capable of substituting fossil or nuclear energy. However there exist very few scientifically sound studies, which apply due diligence to substantiating this impression. In the present paper, the case of photovoltaic power sources in regions of moderate insolation is analysed critically by using the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI, also called EROI). But the methodology for calculating the ERoEI differs greatly from author-to-author. The main differences between solar PV Systems are between the current ERoEI and what is called the extended ERoEI (ERoEI EXT). The current methodology recommended by the International Energy Agency is not strictly applicable for comparing photovoltaic (PV) power generation with other systems. The main reasons are due to the fact that on one hand, solar electricity is very material-intensive, labour-intensive and capital-intensive and on the other hand the solar radiation exhibits a rather low power density.

So is solar energy a worthwhile alternative in places like Europe? The authors conclude that it is not. They write in the conclusion that “an electrical supply system based on today’s PV technologies cannot be termed an energy source, but rather a non-sustainable energy sink” and that “it has become clear that photovoltaic
energy at least will not help in any way to replace the fossil fuel“.

The authors add that “photovoltaic technology would not be a wise choice for helping to deliver affordable, environmentally favourable and reliable electricity regions of low, or even moderate insolation“.

Sounds like much of Europe has wasted very huge sums of money.

Up! Up! And Away! Leading Daily Die Welt Reports: “Electricity In Germany More Expensive Than Ever”

Electricity Prices GermanyThe online German national daily Die Welt has a piece by business journalist Holger Zschäpitz on Germany’s sky-high, ever climbing electricity prices.

Hat-tip: Reader Stefan B.

Awhile ago it looked as if prices had finally stabilized. But now Zschäpitz writes that German electricity prices, already among the highest in the world, have jumped once again.

To put the situation in perspective he writes: “Power consumers are now more burdened than automobile drivers” — who are brutally taxed to begin with. In Germany, even in these times of rock-bottom petroleum prices, motorists still cough up some 5 euros ($5.60) every single US gallon for gasoline they buy. Recently, proposals have been made to tax large cars even more, and to massively subsidize electric cars (which would be forced to charge up on the exorbitantly expensive electricity).

According to a recent analysis, writes Zschäpitz, “Consumers are now paying more for their power than ever before” — some 30.27 euro cents per kilowatt hour. Families today are paying 21% more for electricity than they did 5 years ago.

So what is driving the rapid upward price spiral?

Zschäpitz reports that it’s due mostly to the “Energiewende” – Germany’s push away from nuclear and fossil generated power to renewables such as wind, solar and biogas. Also driving the price are the energy price breaks that are granted to big power consumers, and liability costs for offshore wind parks. Moreover Zschäpitz reports that consumers are also forced to pick up the tab for upgrading the power grid so that it is able to handle the wildly fluctuating power supply from wind and sun.

In the meantime, Germany’s CO2 emissions have been rising, and thus consumers are not really getting anything for the massive amounts of money.

To illustrate the distortion gripping the German power market, Zschäpitz tells readers that today only 27% of the power price is made up of “pure raw material costs”. The electricity production cost by itself has in fact “fallen by 25% over the past few years“. However this cost reduction has been offset and more by other feed-in and grid operating surcharges levied as a result of the Energiewende. This leads Die Welt’s Zschäpitz to conclude:

Thus power consumers are now more burdened with state taxes and fees than automobile drivers.”

For relief, power consumers do have the option of switching to private power providers, and doing so is non-problematic, Zschäpitz writes. However one thing is sure: Electricity prices are expected to keep rising.

 

Studies Suggest Volcanic Activity Had Profound Long-Term Impact On Past Climate …CO2 Is No Explanation

Guest author Kenneth Richard examines the impacts of past volcanoes on climate. The findings will surely be controversial. (Title above is my own). -PG
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Volcanic activity explains long-term climate change better than CO2

By Kenneth Richard

Long-term (decadal and even centennial-scale) volcanic influence on climate has recently gained more and more attention in the scientific literature.  Previously thought to influence surface temperatures for only a few years at a time, there is now a growing body of evidence suggesting volcanic aerosols may significantly affect both short and long-term climate changes by blocking solar radiation from heating the oceans’ surface waters.

When specifying the factors contributing to decadal and centennial-scale temperature changes, solar activity and greenhouse gases are usually thought to top the list. And since 93% of the heat from global warming ends up in the oceans (IPCC, 2013), the focus necessarily should be on what mechanisms contribute most to variations in ocean heat content (OHC) and sea surface temperatures (SST).

Back in 2013, Rosenthal et al. published a paper in Science on millennial-scale ocean heat content variations (Pacific). As the graph (Fig. 4B from the paper) below illustrates, the authors document a dramatic cooling of the 0-700 m layer between the Medieval Warm Period (~1000 CE) and Little Ice Age (1600-1800 CE). While OHC has risen since the depths of the Little Ice Age, modern ocean temperatures are still significantly cooler (-0.65°C) than what they were just 1,000 years ago, or during the Medieval Warm Period.

Volcanoes_1

Source: Meteo.lcd.lu

In a Rosenthal et al 2013 paper, he writes:

We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.”

The causal explanation for this dramatic ocean cooling during the last millennium has generally not been forthcoming from those who attribute variations in temperature/heat content predominantly to variations in carbon dioxide. After all, there was essentially no change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (which centered around ~275 ppm) between ~1000 CE and 1600-1800 CE, implying that CO2 forcing cannot explain the long-term changes in OHC.

There are literally hundreds of scientific papers that have been published suggesting that tracts of low solar activity (i.e., Oort, Spörer, Maunder, Dalton Minimums) are well correlated with decadal- and centennial-scale cooling periods. It is also well-documented that the Medieval Maximum and Modern Grand Maximum (~1920 to ~2010) of very high solar activity are well correlated with the last two warm periods. However, the solar activity explanation is deemed quite controversial, as it is presumed that long-term variations in the Sun’s energy output are too small to have a significant impact on climate changes.  So as not to veer off track or stumble through this controversy, a more indirect explanation for global warming and cooling trends is succinctly referenced here.

In 2015, the authors of the Pages2k (2013) “global” temperature reconstruction for 0-2000 CE released their Ocean2k record of sea surface temperatures (SST) entitled “Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era“.  Below is the definitive graph from the paper depicting this robust global ocean cooling (which conspicuously conceals the post-1900 SST record). The paper itself indicates that the 1,000-year (kyr) cooling trend for global ocean temperatures changed by a modest ~0.1°C (from about -0.45°C kyr to -0.35°C kyr) with the inclusion of the 1800 to 2000 (“anthropogenic”) SST record:

Volcanoes_2

Source: here.

 McGregor et al., 2015 (Ocean2K):

Our best estimate of the SST cooling trend, scaled to temperature units using the average anomaly method (method 1), for the periods 1–2000 CE is –0.3°C/kyr to –0.4°C/kyr, and for 801–1800 CE is –0.4°C/kyr to –0.5°C/kyr

While intriguing that the authors of the Ocean2k reconstruction effectively acknowledge that global ocean surface temperatures haven’t fallen out of the range of long-term natural variability when including the last ~200 years, even more interesting is the physical mechanism suggested for this long-term ocean cooling: a centennial-scale decrease in surface incident solar radiation (SSR) via the aerosol dust-veiling effects of “explosive volcanism.”  Here is the summary from the paper’s abstract:

Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.”

Another 2015 paper by Pausata et al. published in PNAS explains how the direct, short-lived (2 to 3 years) effects of volcanic eruptions indirectly influence major long-term decadal-scale (25-35 years here) ocean oscillations (AMOC, ENSO), which, in turn, heavily influence climate.

Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2–3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8–9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”

The conclusion that explosive volcanic eruptions – or clusters of smaller eruptions spaced closely together – could have a significant long-term effect on climate is not a new one. Back during the 1960s and 1970s, when scientists were searching for an explanation for the decades-long -0.3°C global cooling trend and its possible connection to droughts and severe weather events, volcanic climate forcing was often recognized as significantly responsible (Benton, 19701; Mitchell, 19702; Budyko, 19693). It was also usually acknowledged that the proportion of human contribution to atmospheric aerosol loading was small (~10%) relative to the predominance of volcanic aerosols (Mitchell, 1970; Cobb, 19734).  More recently, scientists have also confirmed that volcanic eruptions are the  primary source of increases in stratospheric aerosol, and that “no hint for a strong anthropogenic influence has been found” (Neely et al., 20135; Höpfner et al., 20136 ).

Further strengthening this correlation between the presence or absence of volcanic aerosols and long-term cooling or warming trends, consider this key graph taken from Oliver (1976) below (Fig. 1, page 2).

Volcanoes_3

They write:

A period of several decades existed (~1915-1945) in which volcanic activity was unusually light and, as mentioned earlier, the temperatures were higher than the preceding [1880s to 1910s] or, in fact, the subsequent (current) [1950s-1970s] period. … Numerous possible causes of climate change have been discussed in the literature, including both anthropogenic and natural factors. Two principal anthropogenic sources are often considered: changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and changes in tropospheric dust. … Mitchell (1975) concluded that neither tropospheric particulates [anthropogenic pollution] nor atmospheric CO2, in concert or separately, could have accounted for the major part of the observed temperature changes of the past century.”

Notice the remarkable correlation between the warming decades (1915-1945) and the lack of volcanic eruptions during that same period, and then notice the years and decades with several large volcanic eruptions and how these periods correspond with cooling. This appears to suggest that the absence of a physical cooling mechanism – namely, clusters of volcanic eruptions – may effectively be interpreted as a warming mechanism.

This explanation could account for the ocean temperature changes since the 1880s far better than anthropogenic CO2 emissions can. After all, anthropogenic CO2 emissions were flat and low (~1 GtC [gigatons carbon] per year) during the 1915 to 1945 warming period, and they rose dramatically (up to ~5 GtC per year) between the 1940s and 1970s.  This means that as CO2 emissions increased significantly, surface temperatures cooled significantly (1940s to 1970s) – the opposite of what should have been occurring if rising CO2 emissions are largely responsible for global warming.

A more recent depiction of large-scale volcanic eruptions for the last 1,500 years comes from a new paper (Liu et al., 2016) linking global-scale precipitation patterns (monsoons) to large volcanic eruptions. Notice that the dramatic post-Medieval Warm Period centennial-scale ocean cooling described above (Rosenthal et al., 2013, Ocean2k) corresponds closely with frequent clusters of volcanic eruptions. Also, notice how volcanically quiescent the last 80 years of the 20th century have been, which has, on net, allowed more solar radiation to heat the oceans and contribute to global warming.

Liu et al., 2016 finds:

There are 54 large explosive volcanoes during 501–2000 AD in total, and the strongest one is the Samalas volcano in 1257–1258, which is followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275 and 1284. These strong volcanoes do not allow the climate to recover, and might have triggered the Little Ice Age.”

Volcanoes_4

Chart source: www.nature.com/articles/srep24331/figures/2.

Other recently-published papers also document a strong correlation between volcanic eruptions and climate changes. Otterå et al. (2010)7 conclude that volcanoes have played a “particularly important part” in directly influencing sea surface temperatures and  in phasing multi-decadal variability for the last 600 years.  Ludlow et al. (2013)8 find 1,200 years of statistically significant (99.7%) associations between cooling events and explosive volcanism for the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Instead of asking what factors are contributing to ocean warming on decadal and centennial time-scales, perhaps there needs to be more of a focus on answering the question of what factors have contributed to the periods of ocean cooling during the last millennium.

Variations in CO2 concentrations or anthropogenic CO2 emissions cannot effectively explain the long-term cooling of the oceans (about -0.35 C per 1,000 years for the last 2,000 years per Ocean2k ). On the other hand, explosive volcanism and its dimming effect on surface solar radiation can much more readily explain decadal- and centennial-scale cooling and warming phases with both its presence (cooling) and absence (warming).

References

1. Benton, 1970

Climate is variable. In historical times, many significant fluctuations in temperature and precipitation have been identified. In the period from 1880 to 1940, the mean temperature of the earth increased about 0.6°C; from 1940 to 1970, it decreased by 0.3-0.4°C. Locally, temperature changes as large as 3-4°C per decade have been recorded, especially in sub-polar regions.  … The drop in the earth’s temperature since 1940 has been paralleled by a substantial increase in natural volcanism. The effect of such volcanic activity is probably greater than the effect of manmade pollutants.”

2. Mitchell, 1970

[V]ariations of human-derived loading are an order of magnitude less than those of volcanic dust loading. For reasonable estimates of the thermal cooling effect of dust load increases, it is inferred that secular cooling due to human-derived particulate loading is currently of the order of 0.05°C per decade. Although changes of total atmospheric dust loading may possibly be sufficient to account for the observed 0.3°C-cooling of the earth since 1940, the human-derived contribution to these loading changes is inferred to have played a very minor role in the temperature decline.”

3. Budyko, 1969

 [A] rise in temperature that began at the end of the last century stopped in about 1940, and a fall in temperature started. The temperature in the northern hemisphere that increased in the warming period by about 0.6oC then decreased by the middle of the fifties by 0.2oC.  A comparatively short-period rise in temperature with smaller amplitude was also observed in the last years of the [19th] century. … Thus, it seems probable that the present changes in the Earth’s temperature are determined mainly by the atmospheric transparency variations that depend on the level of volcanic activity.”

4. Cobb, 1973

It has been estimated (Squires, 1966; Selezneva, 1966; Hidy and Brock, 1970; Robinson and Robbins, 1970) that the anthropogenic component of the global particulate burden of the atmosphere amounts to 5-12%; not, it would seem a very alarming figure.”

5. Neely et al., 2013

We employ model runs that include the increases in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) over Asia and the moderate volcanic explosive injections of SO2 observed from 2000 to 2010. Comparison of the model results to observations reveals that moderate volcanic eruptions, rather than anthropogenic influences, are the primary source of the observed increases in stratospheric aerosol.”

6. Höpfner et al., 2013

The increase in the stratospheric aerosol concentration observed in the past years is caused mainly by sulfur dioxide from a number of volcano eruptions. Variation of the concentration is mainly due to volcanoes.  Lower stratospheric variability of SO2 could mainly be explained by volcanic activity and no hint for a strong anthropogenic influence has been found.”

7. Otterå et al., 2010

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n10/full/ngeo955.html

8. Ludlow et al., 2013

Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level.”

 

Little Evidence Showing Climate “Tipping Points” Are Tipping At All! …Artefacts Of Simplistic Models

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Luning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenohlt have recently looked at the so-called climate “Tipping Points” hypothesis, one that is heavily promoted by the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The idea of the climate irreversibly tipping into something completely different and potentially hostile once certain thresholds are reached is one often put forth by PIK head Prof. Hans-Joschim Schellnhuber, architect of the proposed “Great Transformation of Society“.
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Good bye “Tipping Points”?
By Sebastian Luning and Fritz vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Do you recall the horror reports of imminent climate tipping points?  They are often used to paint doomsday scenarios:

hotspots_e.jpg

Figure: The tipping elements of the world’s climate, Source: PIK

A requirement is that critical thresholds be surpassed, due to the warming of the planet, and thus lead to a tipping of the climate system. This would be similar to the transition over to a new quality from the piling up of smaller quantities, as postulated by Karl Marx in his 3rd Development Law Of Dialectical Materialism. But there is one problem with this assertion in climatology: even the IPCC models (in the last report the CMIP5 models) aren’t playing along. They are forecasting (at least until 2100) more of a linear, steady development. The proponents of the catastrophe theories in fact use simpler modeling constructs for underpinning their Cassandra proclamations: most of them have been energy balance models showing a “catastrophic” shifting over. However, recent scientific studies have been published and they clearly refute the “tipping” claims. In the case of India’s summer monsoons it is written in the conclusion of a paper by Wiliam R. Boos of Yale University, PNAS:

Thus, outside of a theory that omitted a dominant term in the equations of motion, we know of no evidence supporting the idea that monsoons will shut down in response to anthropogenic forcings. Monsoons may have a strong response to anthropogenic forcings, but current theory and numerical models indicate that this response will be nearly linear.”

In another case concerning the “death spiral of Arctic sea ice” another published paper reached a similar conclusion: simple models exaggerated the possibility of a non-linear tipping point:

This result may help to reconcile the discrepancy between low-order models and comprehensive GCMs in previous studies. Specifically, it suggests that the low-order models overestimate the likelihood of a sea ice “tipping point.”

Authors Till J. Wagner and Ian Eisenman of the University of California also concluded that the non-linearity (collapse) of the AMOC (see our post here) was a mere artifact of an overly simplified model.

In another case depicted in the figure above we can also see that one tipping point theory predicts that from one year to the next only El Nino conditions will prevail in the Eastern Pacific. Look at the following figure: Nino 3.4  shows a trend of zero and the observation of sea surface temperatures has not diverted from the trend.

Figure: Monthly Nino 3.4 index

There’s no need to expect a shift over to some new quality, and thus follow in the footsteps of Karl Marx, who was accurate like no other in his analysis of society. His predictions failed spectacularly!

 

Winter Buries Germany’s Spring Under Snow, Ice And Cold …”Spring Nowhere In Sight” (In Late April)!

This morning, even here in the North German lowlands, close to sea level, snow fell as temperatures hovered near the freezing point.

Currently many Germans are struggling under snow, ice and cold as winter terminates spring for the time being. The cause: a low pressure centered over the Baltic Sea pumping in cold polar air through Europe.

Winter massberg April 26, 2016

Winter transforms Germany’s Thuringia Forest into a winter wonderland today. Massberg webcam photo 11.07 a.m.

Newsite Thuringia Antenne here writes that winter has returned and will stick around for awhile, reporting of icy roads, accidents and cold. Meteorologist Dominik Jung of www.wetter.net forecasts 5 to 10 cm of snow across wide regions of Germany, especially Bavaria and Thuringia.

The Rheinbrücke at Rees had to be closed for over an hour and a half early this morning due to accidents from icy conditions, the RP Online reports here.

Sub-zero temperatures were recorded at a number of weather stations throughout Germany this morning.

In the northeastern state of Saxony Bild national daily reports by video of a snow chaos as travelers struggle with an “enormous snow mass” as roads become impassable from the snow and snow plows are unable to keep up. The snow is expected to stay at elevations over 400 – 600 meters, wetter.net reports.

Much of Europe is forecast to remain cold at least for the next 7 days, as the following chart shows negative temperature anomalies:

Winter_April 26 2016 7 day forecast

 In his viedo forecast from this morning, meteorologist Jung says for now, “Spring is nowhere in sight.”

Current Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In Almost 200 Years …Planet At The Mercy Of The Sun

The following is the solar part of the latest post at Die kalte Sonne.
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The Sun in March 2016

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

Our mother star was once again less active than normal in March. The observed solar sunspot number (SSN) was 54.9, which was about 2/3 of the mean value (82.5) for this month into the cycle. Here’s what the current solar cycle (SC) looks like so far:

Figure 1: The course of the current SC 24 since it began in December 2008, up to March 2016 (month 88) in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is shown in blue, and the similarLY (since month 73) behaving solar cycle number 5, which occurred from May 1789 to December 1810, shown in black.

 The accumulated sunspot numbers this far into the cycle are plotted as the anomaly from the mean for each cycle. It shows that the current cycle is one of the weakest on record:

Figure 2: The accumulated sunspot numbers for each cycle, shown as the anomaly from the mean, 88 months into the respective cycle, going back to 1755.

 SC 24 is the weakest since SCs 5, 6 and 7, a time known as the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830). It appears that the current cycle may very well wind up being weaker than SC 7 when it ends. Our sun is a very mediocre star of the spectral classification G2, similar to our neighbor star Alpha Centauri A. That is one of the reasons evolution had enough time to spawn intelligent life. A more active star most likely would not have allowed it due to the powerful solar winds that would “blow away” a planet’s atmosphere.

What follows is a beautiful picture from the Hubble space telescope:

Figure 3: The light blue star inside the “bubble” of dust and gases is very active. Through pressure it generates its stellar winds that shape a sphere that measures 10 light years in size. Near the surroundings of the star a planet with an atmosphere would be inconceivable. Photo source: NASA

So can single super flares (extremely powerful eruptions of a star’s surface) from the sun be excluded? A new study by a team of scientists led by Christoffer Karoff of the University of Aarhus in Denmark concludes: No – something of the sort could in fact happen! There are indications that in the year 775 a flare occurred, one that was much more powerful than anything we could expect in modern times, e.g. Carrington- Event 1859.

A massive explosion on the sun that could be 100 times more powerful is improbable, yet cannot be excluded. If such a flare hit the Earth, things indeed would get very uncomfortable because all power transmission lines would be impacted. Our modern energy and communication networks would be interrupted globally, and for a long time.

The requirement for this? A huge sunspot.

If one did occur, there first would be a warning period. But what precautionary measures could be implemented? Up to now we can only hope to be spared of such a massive solar flare of energy. In a sense the Danish study tells us just how dependent the Earth is on the sun’s power, its electromagnetic radiation, and its magnetic field.

Note: Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt is co-author of the book: “The Neglected Sun”.

Late April “Snow Shock” Surprises Germany, President Obama. Experts Advise Putting Winter Tires Back On!

You gotta wonder what President Obama will be thinking when he visits the northern city of Hanover later today. Ironically the US global warming president may be confronted with snow tomorrow morning as he gets set to pitch further steps with regards to TTIP and global warming to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Europe Late April 2016

Temperature anomalies of more than -10°C are forecast to hit many areas of Europe in the days ahead.

A blast of polar air is now super-cooling the European continent and delivering unusual late April snows and frosty conditions even down in the lowlands, where the German city of Hanover is located.

“Wintershock”

The online SVZ daily here warns “Winterschock: In Germany the snow is back. Ice cold polar air delivers snowfall and storms.

German weekly, Stern, writes at its online newsite: “Experts even advise putting the winter tires back on” and warns of icy streets in the lowlands by Monday morning! The Stern clip calls the snow for this time of year “unusual”.

High profile meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweeted: “rest of April in Europe.. about as cold as it can get this late.”

Online Bild here bears the headline: ” Polar air frosts the spring away– and will stay!”

The DWD German national weather service reported that the temperature at the Lower Saxony Brocken summit (1140m) was -5°C just some 100 or so kilometers away from Hanover, where President Barack Obama is scheduled to arrive to open up the Hanover industrial trade show.

Al weather forecasts agree that the bitter cold will persist through much of the week. Experts warn of frost damage to blossoming plants.

To be fair, much of far eastern Europe and Russia are enjoying warmer than normal spring weather, and so we do not want to give readers the impression that the Europe cold means the globe is cooling. Such a trick, after all, is the kind of stuff the global warming alarmists routinely resort to. Remember how back around New Year’s the media and alarmists were jumping up and down, hollering that the North Pole was melting – trying to make us think it was all because of global warming? In fact that was just the reverse of what is happening in Europe right now. And never mind that snow was supposed to become “a thing of the past” even in the dead of winter.

Moreover the euro-warmunistas are now claiming that snow and cold we are seeing today has happened before at this time of year and thus is normal and we should not be surprised if it happens from time to time. But that’s just the point: our weather is no longer supposed to be “normal”. Climate change supposedly has changed all that. Yet there we have it: snow in late April, just like 100 years ago, back when that sort of thing used to happen once in a blue moon as well. Nothing (except the media reporting) has really changed that much.

 

NASA “Homogenization” Infusing MORE Error? Adelaide Airport: Cooling Turns Into Warming

By Ed Caryl

There have been several reports of temperature data fudging by the authorities, the most recent by Paul Homewood on several stations in Paraguay.

While exploring long temperature records in Australia, I discovered a particularly egregious example of temperature changing at Adelaide Airport. GISS now offers easy access to their several sets of data for each station: unadjusted (I assume this is the raw data.), adjusted (I assume this is after TOBs, time of observation, and moving adjustments), adjusted after cleaning (whatever that is), and the final step, after adjustments, cleaning, and homogenization.

Infusion of more error?

Homogenization is supposed to correct for urban heat island problems, but it is nearly always used to cool the past, rather than cooling the present or heating the past, the opposite of what an urban heat island correction should be. But I digress.

Here is the Adelaide Airport record before any adjustments:

Adelaide Airport Unadjusted

Figure 1: Adelaide Airport unadjusted temperature record. The top trace is the annual average summer (December, January, and February) temperatures, the middle is the annual average meteorological year, and the bottom is the average winter (June, July, and August) temperatures, all with trend lines. On all these images, click on the image for a high resolution version.

Note in Figure 1 that all the trends are negative, that is, it has been cooling since the turn of the twentieth century, for over the last 100 years, particularly in the summer months. The warmest year was 1914. The warmest summer was in 1880!

Now let us look at the “adjusted” data:

Adelaide Airport After Adjustments

Figure 2: Adelaide Airport after “adjustment”, also with trend lines.

Note that in Figure 2 we see warming, annually, and in all seasons. The warmest year is now 2007, though the warmest summer is still 1880 by a small fraction of degree. But the strange thing about this adjustment is this:

Adelaide Airport Adjustments

Figure 3: Adjustment applied to Figure 1 to produce Figure 2.

Note that from 1880 to 1947, the adjustment is exactly minus one degree, in all months, all seasons, and all years. It is a blanket, obvious, fudge! Someone got lazy. Instead of attempting to figure out an actual time of observation or move adjustment, they simply slapped on a minus one degree change, and magically, the cooling trend went away. But they were not finished! There is still homogenization to be performed, the finishing touch!

Adelaide After Adjust and Homo

Figure 4: Adelaide Airport after all adjustments and homogenization.

Homogenization now adds another tenth of a degree to the warming temperature trends. How much was the change?

Adelaide Homogenization Adjust

Figure 5: Homogenization adjustment applied to Figure 2 to result in Figure 4.

These changes further cool the past and mostly leave the present unchanged. The changes are the same for all months, season, and years for twenty or more year stretches.

I found the Australian BOM description for their adjustments for Adelaide. They do not resemble the adjustments seen above. They are changes to Tmax and Tmin, are in both positive and negative directions. Changes to Tmax + Tmin sometimes nearly cancel out. (If Tmax is adjusted up and Tmin is adjusted down by the same amount, Tmean will not change.) And the steps are in different years from that above.

Aust BOM Adelaide

Figure 6: Screen grab from an Australian BOM pdf document found here. Click on the image for a clearer version.

Hiding the cooling

It should be obvious to all that these adjustments to the raw temperature data are an attempt to hide the long-term cooling temperature trend at Adelaide. These changes to the temperature data begs us to examine all station data for similar changes. Is global warming real or just a  product of pencil, pen, and computer?

 

Climate Alarmists Alarmed Public No Longer Panicked About The Climate, Demand More Doomsday Headlines!

Climate science critics Dr. Sebastian Lüning and professor Fritz Vahrenholt here present today some findings that climate alarmists are not very amused over: Climate alarmism has waned and is no longer making any headlines.

The two co-authors of “The Neglected Sun” write at their site:

========================================

“People aren’t dumb. Climate alarmism just isn’t working. The public is fed up with the constant unending apocalypse, for which there are still no reliable indications. Gradually the alarm has been disappearing from the headlines.

Here the UN is getting very worried because with the help of climate panic they wish to justify huge finance transfers from the rich to the poor. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has expressed these concerns in a press release. It is indeed absurd that the climate change is being hyped as the ‘greatest problem for humanity’ at a time when the world is currently suffering from rampant terrorism and migration crises. What on earth is going through the heads of the climate romanticists? Do they not want to or are they just unable to see the reality? Is it all about money? Or power? Read the following from the IFAD press release April 6, 2016, which will leave you amazed:

‘Despite being “the biggest threat facing humanity” climate change and its impacts fail to make headlines, says IFAD study

Even as 60 million people around the world face severe hunger because of El Niño and millions more because of climate change, top European and American media outlets are neglecting to cover the issues as a top news item, says a new research report funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) today.

“It’s incredible that in a year when we have had record temperatures, 32 major droughts, and historic crop losses that media are not positioning climate change on their front pages,” said IFAD President, Kanayo F. Nwanze. “Climate change is the biggest threat facing our world today and how the media shape the narrative remains vitally important in pre-empting future crises.”

The report, “The Untold Story: Climate change sinks below the headlines” provides an analysis of the depth of media reporting around climate change in two distinct periods: two months before the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, and two months after. Specifically, it explores whether issues connecting climate change, food security, agriculture and migration made headlines, and if so, how much prominence these stories were given.

Among some of its key findings:

Climate change stories were either completely absent or their numbers decreased in major media outlets in Europe and the United States before and after COP21.

• Coverage on the consequences of climate change, such as migration, fell by half in the months after COP21 and people directly impacted by climate change rarely had a voice in stories or were not mentioned at all.

• News consumers want climate change issues and solutions to be given more prominence in media outlets and, in particular, want more information on the connections between climate change, food insecurity, conflict and migration.

The release of the report comes just days before world leaders gather at the United Nations in New York to sign off on the Paris Agreement coming out of COP21. In December, the agreement made headlines and led news bulletins across the globe. But leading up to COP21 and in the months following it, coverage on climate change significantly fell off the radar of major media outlets across Europe and the United States. […]

Download the report: https://www.ifad.org/documents/10180/6173b0cf-3423-408c-aac6-e6da78f01239.'”

Central Europe’s Spring To Crash Back Into Winter …Snow Expected At Elevations Down To 200 Meters!

So far this week where I live here in the North German flatlands people have woken up to surface frost three times already. And although temperatures are forecast to be pleasant today under sunny conditions, the temperature will drop rapidly come weekend.

April 25 2016

Source: http://www.wetteronline.de/

Joe Bastardi at his Daily Update here says it’s going to get “as cold as you’ll ever see it at this time of year”.

It’s going to get uncharacteristingly cold – not something we ought to expect after one hundred years of alleged accelerating global warming. In fact the 25-year trend in Germany shows spring arriving later and later – something the media will never tell us.

How icy is it supposed to get? German CHIP magazine here writes: “It sounds like a bad joke: This weekend it’s going to snow in many areas in Germany. Are we about to get hit by snow chaos in April?

The chart above shows frosty conditions across much of Great Britain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Scandinavia by Monday morning.

Coldest late April week in decades

A low pressure system will be bringing cold Arctic air down across Euroipe as daytime temperatures plunge below 10°C this weekend. At night temperatures will drop to around freezing and precipitation is expected to fall to elevations as low as 200 meters.

CHIP reports: “On Monday it could get even colder”.

Weather records show that the cold blast will make this year’s late April  one of the coldest in decades.

 

Profound Admission: New Nature Study Shows Models Still Very Embryonic, “Hardly Trustworthy” Says Top Climate Modeler

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski held an interview with climate modeling scientist Edouard Zorita of the GKSS Research Center in Geestacht near Hamburg, Germany.

Zorita

Eduardo Zorita, paleoclimatologist, GKSS Research Centre Germany tells Spiegel climate models have a long way to go, much remains poorly understood and that they are hardly trustworthy. Photo:  http://coast.gkss.de/staff/zorita/; CC BY-SA 3.0.

The interview focused on the reliability of climate models, particularly their ability to forecast precipitation trends in response to warming. Earlier models have suggested that arid regions would simply become drier, while wet regions would get wetter. Other models suggested some regions would see more of both. The result: lots of confusion and uncertainty.

“Hardly trustworthy”

The interview focusses on a new study authored by Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist of Stockholm University, which was recently published in Nature. The paper’s result now casts lots of doubt over the models and their ability to project the future. In the study the scientists examined the past 1200 years of precipitation across the northern hemisphere and they found that the models do very poorly, and that they are still at a very embryonic stage in their development – far from being mature enough to be of much use for future prognoses. Hence the title and photo caption of the Spiegel article:

Faults in the climate models: “Drought prognoses are hardly trustworthy”

A consequence of global warming is supposed to be drought. However an analysis shows: climate models can barely calculate precipitation.”

Obviously the climate system is far more complex than what some scientists, policymakers and media would like to have us to believe. The models are in fact more uncertain than ever.

Bojanowski writes:

In the case of precipitation the data contradict the model results, the scientists report.”

Mismatch between models and observations

When asked about the reliability of projections for more drought, Zorita, a scientist who has co-authored numerous publications, tells the German Spiegel news weekly that the prognoses are “hardly trustworthy” and that their new study shows that “the climate model results clearly deviated from the climate data on precipitation“.

The scientists based their findings on 1200 years of climate data from the northern hemisphere, much of it from proxy records. The mismatch between the models and observations are in fact profound, it turns out.

No 20th century precipitation signal

When asked if a man-made signal could be found in the precipitation over the 20th century, Zorita replied:

In our data we do not see anything unusual. There was nothing special concerning precipitation. It was similarly arid from the 9th to the 11th century, and back then there was no man-made climate change. Also harsh droughts such as the recent ones in Western USA were put into real perspective. Precipitation amounts actually fluctuate more greatly than previously assumed – that’s what the data show for the past 1200 years.”

When you boil it down: droughts are no worse today than they have ever been in the past 1200 years back when CO2 was some 30% less. Zorita adds:

But for the past 1200 years we were not able to find a relationship between global warming and changes in precipitation. That’s something that raises concern.”

“Hardly able to model the water cycle”

Zorita then tells Spiegel that the results of the study should be seen as a “warning signal“, elaborating:

It shows that we need to do a better job testing the climate models. They have been hardly able to model the water cycle, the crux of the climate phenomenon.”

That’s black on white. The models thus cannot be relied on to come anywhere close to forecasting the future as they cannot even properly simulate crucial precipitation cycles. The modelers of course cannot be blamed here as the system is indeed enormously complex. They are doing a good job getting the task started, but it has to be acknowledged that it is only a start and that there is in fact a very very long way to go before they produce useful long-term forecasts.

Large knowledge gaps in other areas

In the interview Zorita also brings up the knowledge gaps in other crucial areas. He tells Spiegel there’s still much to learn about clouds and aerosols, and that much more research is required here. Moreover much remains poorly understood in yet more areas:

Also our understanbding of how moisture between the ground and air is exchanged is insufficient. That is really something to think about because these factors determine the climate of the future.”

The results of this paper really ought to be embarrassing for policymakers who insist the science is settled and that we need to heed what the current (embryonic) models are telling us.

GISS Temperature Data Website Changes (For The Better!)

By Ed Caryl

Yesterday, I resumed some temperature analysis I had been doing and found an amazing improvement in the GISS website for station data.

Instead of the tiny map with no station locations marked on it, I found a nice rotatable and zoomable globe with dots marking the station locations. There is also now a time window selector, making it much easier to find long and/or recent temperature records.

GISS map screen

 Figure 1: Screen grab of the station data selector screen on the GISS website here.

In this screen, there is also a selector for the data set. The selections are: GHCN V3 unadjusted, GHCN V3 adjusted, GHCN V3 adjusted and cleaned, and GHCN V3 adjusted, cleaned, and homogenized.

When a station is selected, these selections will be the downloaded data. But, all these are visible, and highlightable, on the graph for each station. When you hover the cursor over a station dot, the station name, the station number, the latitude and longitude, the station altitude, and the record beginning and end dates.

Here is a typical graph, this one for Churchill, Manitoba, Canada.

Graph screen for Churchill

Figure 2: Temperature chart for Churchill. As you hover the cursor over the legend, the corresponding data is highlighted.

At the bottom of this page are the links to the images and data. These have also been improved with more selections.

These improvements have made it much easier to explore the temperature data available and the homogenization adjustments that have been applied. Keep in mind that these data, even the unadjusted data, have been somewhat manipulated by GHCN and NCDC.

 

Snow Now A Thing Of Late April. Cold Blast With Possible Snow Set To Grip Central Europe!

Not only should we be concerned about the overall cooling that is now in the works for the globe, as we reported here, but for those of us in Central Europe we can now forget about getting out the sundry summer items for at least another week.

The frost on my car’s windshield yesterday morning here in the north German lowlands was a sign of what lies ahead.

Snow!

The forecast for Central Europe shows the month of April getting sharply colder, rather than warmer like it’s supposed to. The latest forecast even sees snow down in the north German flatlands next Monday.

At Weatherbell Analytics, the forecast snow was impressive enough for veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi to mention it yesterday in his daily weather video. Joe put up an NCEP chart depicting the temperature anomaly for the coming days ahead for Europe and also warned of possible snowfall for Germany:

Central Europe 4_2016

NCEP image cropped at Weatherbell. Hat-tip: Dan F.

Though temperatures that are 6°C below normal are not really so unusual, what is unusual is the forecast for snow for this time of year. Recall how top climatologists, e.g. David Viner and Mojib Latif, told us 15 years ago snow would disappear even in the wintertime – never mind late April.

Great Britain has already gotten a taste of the white stuff and cold that is about to hit the remainder of Europe.

Little wonder climatologists have had to scramble and think up of new reasons to explain the inconvenient cold events and the overall warming pause. Many of these reasons have been nothing new, and have been in fact long well-known. Like the Rossby Waves, for example.

Though they ignore the many studies showing weather extremes have not increased, the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has produced a video explaining the Rossby Waves, which I think is very useful.

But as is always the case with the PIK, one has to be careful when discerning fact from theory, or just plain alarmist fantasy, in the information they put out. The general rule for the PIK is: If it’s alarmist, then it’s science. If it’s not alarmist, then they ignore it or downplay it.

Also note how in his daily video Joe Bastardi reminds us that the “permanent drought” forecasts for Texas recently made by “climate experts” have suddenly and already crumbled as the region gets doused by heavy rainfall. Yet another alarmist scenario that has turned out to be totally bogus.

 

Sea Level Hysteria: German Climate Experts Call Claim Antarctica Could Melt Faster “Crazy Climate Alarmism”!

German scientists Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, authors of the German climate science critical book “Die kalte Sonne”, available in English as “The Ngelected Sun“, call the recent claims made by DeConto et al that Antarctica could melt more quickly than expected: “crazy climate alarmism”.

Antarctica_Mt Herschel Andrew Mandemaker
Mt. Herschel Antarctica. Photo by Andrew Mandemaker, CC BY-SA 2.5

At their climate science critical site, Die kalte Sonne here, they write:
=====================================

At the end of March, 2016, climate alarmism once again was spread through the public. This time the Biblical flood was chosen. At Spiegel Online one could read:

Climate prognoses: Antarctic ice could melt more rapidly than expected
How stable is Antarctic ice? The answer to that question determines how high the sea level will rise in the future over the long-term. A new model calculation shows that the oceans could rise much more rapidly by the end of the century than  what models showed previously due to melt water. Earlier experts from the UN IPCC expected a comparatively moderate sea level rise of 18 cm from melting ice from Antarctica by 2100. For the current century scientists see glacier melt and retreat of ice in Greenland as the most important factors for sea level rise. Computer simulations by scientists led by Robert DeConto of the University of Massachusetts, appearing in the journal of Nature, however, see in the worst case a rise of up to one meter alone from ice from Antarctica by 2100.”

Oh man. Antarctic sea ice is in fact growing currently, which isn’t keeping the alarmists from writing stories telling the opposite.

Here are the facts [for German readers, citing renowned institutes]:

Also see the recent post at WUWT: “DeConto and Pollard – An Antarctic Science (Fiction?) Disaster

“Powerfully Cold La Niña” Coming At Us Like An Express Train …Could Set A New Record!

Schneefan (snow fan) at German climate science critical site wobleibtdieerderwaemung.de here presents the latest analysis of the current ENSO, which shows a powerful La Niña in the works.

Three-Year Super La Niña with Global Cooling? – April 2016 ENSO Update

Based on an array of data, Schneefan tells readers to expect a La Niña already early in the second half of this year and that there are signs it may turn into a Super La Nina – one that could persist until part way into 2018.

The consequence, he writes: “With a delay of 4 to 5 months, global temperatures will retreat over many years and fall below the long-term climate mean.”

From earlier ENSO models, the La Niña originally was not very evident, but the NOAA has since drastically corrected its projections and the CFSv2 is now anticipating “unusual cold sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of 3.4,” the climate science critical site writes.

Der Plot stellt die seit 29.3.2016 korrigierte ENSO-Pognose vom 15.4.2016 für die Abweichung der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen (SSTA) im maßgeblichen ENSO-Gebiet 3.4 für die kommenden Monate vor. Die aktuellen (korrigierten) Prognosen (blaue Linien) erreichen teils bereits im Juni 2016 La Niña-Werte von -0,5 K und kälter, im Herbst 2016 werden in mehreren Rechnungen berewits -2,0 K unterschritten: Eine kräfte kalte La Niña ist im Anmarsch. Quelle:

Plot of projected equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, region 3.4, from April 15, 2016. La Niña values of -0.5 K are expected already in June. Many models are projecting the -2.0°K level to be surpassed. Source: www.ncep.noaa.gov/products/html.

Schneefan reports that the latest models are now projecting “a powerfully cold La Niña is on the way” – one that could smash the earlier record set back by the La Niña of the 1970s.

The current CFSv2 projections are now pretty much in line with most of the other ENSO models, and foresees already La Niña conditions with an average of -0.9°K SSTA in August:

Der Durchschnitt der ENSO-Modelle - einschließlich NOAA/CFSv2 - sieht Mitte April 2016 mit -0,9 K SSTA das Eintreffen von La Niña-Bedingungen (ab - 0,5 K und kälter) im August 2016. Quelle:

Source: www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/Pacific-Ocean

Schneefan also provides the numerical table from the NOAA showing past historical events since 1950:

Die verfälschte ONI-Tabelle von NOAA zeigt die warmen El-Niño Ereignisse (rot) und die kalten La Niña-Ereignisse seit 1950. Die kältesten La Niña-ONI-Werte bei Super-La Niña 1998-2000 lagen bei -1,6 K. Im jahr 1973 wurden sogar -1,9 K erreicht. Quelle:

Source: Historical El Nino/ La Nina episodes (1950-present)

The figures in the table above, Schneefan writes, are actually the “falsified” ones. The coldest La Niñas occurred in 1998-2001 (-1.6°K) and in 1973 (-1.9° K). The latest projections for the coming La Niña show these may even be surpassed.

Also the energy content of the equatorial water mass down to 300 meters below the surface dipped into negative territory by mid April, reaching an anomaly of -0.7°K, thus already in the La Niña range.

Der Plot stellt den Verlauf der Temperaturanomalien bis zu 300 Meter unter Wasser im äquatorialen Pazifik dar. Die kräftigen positiven Abweichungen der warmen Downwelling-Phase einer äquatorialen Kelvinwelle haben Ende Oktober/Anfang November 2015 ihren Höhepunkt erreicht und gehen bis Mitte April 2016 um 3,5 K deutlich bis rund -0,5 K zurück: El Niño geht – La Niña kommt! Quelle:

The chart above shows: El Niño going – La Niña coming! Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml

 

The next chart is a poignant display of just how powerful the oncoming La Niña is threatening to be. The chart shows the cross section of the Pacific equatorial water down to 400 meters since January 2016:

Der Plot zeigt die Entwicklung der Temperaturanomalien unter Wasser im äquatorialen Pazifik von September bis 14. Mitte April 2016. Die kalten Anomalien im Westen (blau) haben sich im Dezember 2015 deutlich weiter nach Osten verlagert, während die warmen Anomalien nach Osten und nach oben verdrängt und insgesamt abgeschwächt wurden. Quelle:

Strengthening of the Humboldt currents. The warm El Niño water has practically fully disappeared! Source: 4-month sequence of Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly cross sections.

The complex, coupled ocean/atmosphere index MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) also is pointing downward (see chart below) and will rapidly fall below zero in the months ahead, just as was the case for the super 1997/98 El Niño, but this time it’ll be earlier, Schneefan tells us:

Der gekoppelte Atmosphäre/Ozean-Index “MEI” ist mit einem Februar/März- 2016-Wert von +1,96 (Vormonatswert +2,12) um 0,16 leicht auf gefallen. Er leigt aber weiter im kräftigen El Niño-Bereich, wie er zuletzt vor 18 Jahren im Super-El Nino-Jahr 1997/1998 und davor 1982/83 aufgetreten ist, aber nur noch auf Rang 4 mit diesem Doppelmonatswert. Der Abstand ist allerdings größer geworden, ein zweiter "Peak" ist nicht mehr in Sicht. Quelle: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

More bad news of coming cold

Schneefan also writes that the upcoming La Niña will also coincide with a dying solar sunspot cycle, one that was a weak one to start with, and the fact that the earth is now moving further away from the sun in its orbit,. This will only make the cooling worse. He summarizes:

Thus so could the coming 2016/17 winter be as exciting as the 2010/11 winter: The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter.

 

“Climate McCarthyism” May Backfire As Large Body Of New Science Shows Claims Of “Consensus” Are An Illusion

The web media have been reporting on how a group of activist attorneys general have recently launched efforts to clamp down on climate science dissent.

The science-dissent crackdown is spearheaded by 16 Democrat attorneys general and US Justice Department head Loretta Lynch, who is falling back in part on the powerful federal RICO (anti-racketeering) laws. Their aim is to go after those who allegedly are operating a “climate denial scheme”, alleging that the dissent is defrauding the public.

Just a days ago the Washington Times published an article here questioning the government “crackdown” on the skeptics of the alarmist government-sanctioned science amid the large growing body of science that now refutes alarmist science, all published over the past two years. Here the Washington Times cited NoTricksZone, thanks to the diligent work of guest author Kenneth Richard.

In the report the WT quoted meteorologist Anthony Watts, owner and operator of the world’s most viewed site on climate science, WhatsUpWithThat. Watts acknowledged the growing number of skeptical publications, and implied that the grounds for alarmism and consensus have become more disputed and shaky than ever. “There has been quite an uptick in papers that question the consensus this year,” Watts told the WT. He referred to the Virgin Islands investigation as “climate McCarthyism”.

The US-based Competitive Enterprise Institute libertarian think tank, a target of the investigation called the subpoena against it “the latest effort in an intimidation campaign to criminalize speech and research on the climate debate.”

The WT also cites Bloomberg columnist Megan McArdle who criticized the legal move against climate science dissent, noting that climate activists have an unfortunate tendency of “trying to brand dissenters as the equivalent of Holocaust deniers.”

Skeptics and non-skeptics alike accuse the attorneys general of spreading an atmosphere of intimidation, one that is totally foreign to free and open societies where the exchange of ideas is normally welcome and not met with hostility.

“Fraud” investigation may end up reversing

As of March 27, already 133 consensus-skeptical papers have already been published this year, bringing to 660 the number of such studies appearing since January 2014.

Guest writer Richard also recently communicated that his digging into the literature is now revealing that the climate activists had also deceived the public on another climate issue. He expects to present his findings within a few weeks and noted they may be “something really big”.

And as the newly published science surfaces, a clear picture is emerging. It is becoming clearer that the notion of a “consensus-backed settled science” is in fact an illusion and the scheme behind that illusion soon may need to be investigated itself.

Tide gauge measurements rising only 1.4 mm per year

Another illusion surrounds sea level rise. Recently this site presented a number of papers and data sources involving, real, observed tide gauge measurements which in fact show sea levels are rising at rates well less than half the claimed rates.

On the world’s 225 long-term tide gauges, according to Dave Burton of SeaLevel.info site here:

197 of 225 stations (87.6%) have recorded less than 3.3 mm/yr sea-level rise. At 47 of 225 stations (20.9%) sea level is falling rather than rising. Just 28 of 225 stations (12.4%) have recorded more than 3.3 mm/yr sea-level rise.

The average SLR at those 225 gauges is +0.90 mm/yr. The median is +1.41 mm/yr.”

Strange how sea level rise “acceleration” happens to be absent along the coastlines, where it really matters.

There are many other instances, and it cannot be surprising that people have become skeptical. It’s time stop the investigation of the “fraud” of the honest, and to start investigating the “truth” of the dishonest.

 

Early Forecast: Veteran Meteorologist Predicts Harsh 2016/17 Winter, And Worst Hurricane Season In 10 Years!

David%20Picture%20GLGOcala, FL (PRWEB) April 13, 2016 – Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) has issued the most accurate hurricane and El Niño predictions by any organization over the past 8 years, and was right on the money with the United States winter predictions and California drought the past 3 winters.

Photo: meteorologist David Dilley, GWO

With the El Niño transitioning to what is called “Neutral Conditions” and then to a weak La Niña by fall, the GWO says weather patterns will change rapidly during the summer and fall – bringing back weather patterns that caused active Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons from 2010 through 2012 – and a much harsher winter in some areas from the United States to parts of Europe and Asia.

An accurate prediction for the year that the California drought cycle will end is available on the GWO web site.

David Dilley, former NOAA meteorologist and now CEO of Global Weather Oscillations says – unlike the past three weak hurricane seasons that were suppressed by hostile atmospheric conditions and the 2015 El Niño – the next few years will be in a “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” that will provide very favorable conditions for development of Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season begins June 1 and averages 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.5 major hurricanes. Last season (2015) was close to an average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (includes Hurricane Alex that formed in mid-January). Typically the occurrence of an El Niño during a hurricane season suppresses the number of named storms significantly – but it did not significantly reduce the number of named storms last year, and this is a clear signal for what is in store the next few seasons.

Most dangerous, costly period in 10 years

Mr. Dilley says the combination of the relatively high number of named storms last year, and the El Niño transitioning toward a La Niña during the later portion of this season (2016), signals that a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle will be in place during the upcoming 2016 season and provide very favorable atmospheric conditions for hurricane development and landfalls during the next couple of years – with this likely being the most dangerous and costly period in over 10 years.

The 2016 season will have 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Three of the GWO United States prediction zones are at high risk for hurricane conditions in 2016, and one zone is at risk for a major impact hurricane. In addition – the 2017 season will be more dangerous and costly than 2016, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and several of the GWO prediction zones will be at high risk for major impact hurricanes. Over the two year period, GWO expects 5 to 8 United States Hurricane Hot Spots.

Brutal US winter, drought in California

In addition to the change in the weather pattern that will be favorable for the upcoming active hurricane seasons, Mr. Dilley says the 2016-17 winter weather pattern will be dramatically different from last winter in many regions – with the upcoming winter pattern becoming more similar to the one that caused the cold Arctic Vortex outbreaks to plunge southward during the very cold 2014 and 2015 winters and a continuation of the California drought.

The very high Arctic Region that is a production center for cold Arctic air is already responding to the ending of the El Niño, and will likely experience colder than normal temperatures this summer – all of which will once again set the stage for very cold outbreaks in some regions from the United States to Europe and Asia. Detailed hurricane zone predictions, and more detailed regional winter predictions and 2-year Global El Niño and regional predictions can be acquired through the GWO web site.

The GWO researches and develops the “Climate Pulse Technology” (CPT). The CPT prediction model incorporates natural mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather and climate cycles, which in-turn control recurring California drought cycles, winter weather and future hurricane paths.

GWO’s research over the past 30 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal hurricane zones have different cycles, and within each cycle there exists smaller cycles – with each zone having their own unique cycle.  GWO’s so-called Hot Spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by companies and other organizations.