EU Sees Almost No Fossil Fuel Consumption Progress Despite Hundreds Of Billions Of Euros Invested!

The statistics arm of the European Union, Eurostat, has released recent figures on energy consumption. They are a huge disappointment and show that the community has only succeeded at wasting hundreds of billions of euros, while having no impact on the climate.

EU energy consumption fell only a measly 2.5% from 1990 to 2015, eurostat reports.

Also the share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption in the EU remains stubbornly high:

        Despite committing an estimated 1 trillion euros in green energies, Europe remains intensively high with respect to fossil fuel consumption. Source:

eurostat

      . For the money, Europe will contribute theoretically only a very few tenths of degree less warming to the global climate by the year 2100.

Though energy consumption in the EU is below its 1990 level, EU dependency on fossil fuel imports is on the rise:

Source: eurostat.

In 2015, gross inland energy consumption, which reflects the energy quantities necessary to satisfy all inland consumption, amounted in the European Union (EU) to 1,626 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), below its 1990 level (-2.5%) and down by 11.6% compared to its peak of almost 1,840 Mtoe in 2006.

Accounting for nearly three-quarters of EU consumption of energy in 2015, fossil fuels continued to represent by far the main source of energy, although their weight has constantly decreased over the past decades, from 83% in 1990 to 73% in 2015. However, over this period, EU dependency on imports of fossils fuels has increased, with 73% imported in 2015 compared with just over half (53%) in 1990.

In other words, while in 1990 one tonne of fossil fuels was imported for each tonne produced in the EU, by 2015 three tonnes were imported for each tonne produced.

Source: eurostat.

Based on EU 2012 directives, EU renewable energy share is supposed to be at least 27% of the electric power production 2030. And according to an EU 2014 agreement, greenhouse gas emissions is supposed to be 40 percent less, a target that climate protection activists say is too little!

Though statistics showing considerable greenhouse gas reductions since 1990, the vast majority of it happened right after the shut down of the dilapidated, communist run industries in the first years after the fall of the Iron Curtain. There has been little progress since.

 

Observations Show No Warming Trend, Mostly Stable Glaciers In The Himalayas…Contradicting IPCC’s ‘Fake News’


IPCC Intentionally Uses Catastrophic

Non-Science To Incite Policy Action


“The most striking feature of the present reconstruction is the absence of any warming trend in the 20th century”     — Yadav et al., 1997


Bhattacharyya and Chaudhary, 2003


In 2007, IPCC Claimed The Himalayan Region Has Been Warming So Rapidly Its Glaciers Would ‘Disappear’ By 2035


IPCC (2007)

“Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).”


IPCC’s Fake Glacier Melt Claim Came From Activists, Intentionally Put In To Spur Policymakers To Action


David Rose, UK Daily Mail

“The claim that Himalayan glaciers are set to disappear by 2035 rests on two 1999 magazine [phone] interviews with glaciologist Syed Hasnain, which were then recycled without any further investigation in a 2005 report by the environmental [activist] group WWF. It was this report that Dr Lal and his team cited as their source.” 


88% Of Himalayan Glaciers Are Stable Or Advancing — With Overall Negligible Change (0.2%) Since 2000


Bahuguna et al., 2014  (Himalayan Glaciers)

Two thousand and eighteen glaciers representing climatically diverse terrains in the Himalaya were mapped and monitored [between 2000-2010]. It includes glaciers of Karakoram, Himachal, Zanskar, Uttarakhand, Nepal and Sikkim regions. Among these, 1752 glaciers (86.8%) were observed having stable fronts (no change in the snout position and area of ablation zone), 248 (12.3%) exhibited retreat and 18 (0.9%) of them exhibited advancement of snoutThe net loss in 10,250.68 sq. km area of the 2018 glaciers put together was found to be 20.94 sq. km or 0.2%.”


Only 4 Gt Per Year Of ‘High Mountain Asia’ Glacier Loss For 2003-2010


Jacob et al., 2012 (‘High Mountains of Asia’)

“The GIC [global glaciers and ice caps excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets] rate for 2003–2010 is about 30 per cent smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period. The high mountains of Asia [Himalayan Region], in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates.”

[A 4 Gt mass loss per year is the sea level rise equivalent of 0.01 mm per year, or about one tenth of one centimeter per century.]


Contrary To IPCC Claims, There Has Been No Recent Himalayan Warming


Thapa et al., 2015 (Nepal Himalaya)

[T]emperature in Central Asia and northern Hemisphere revert back towards cooling trends in the late twentieth century. Thus looking at all the records we observed that our present study is following patterns of temperature variations observed in surrounding regions.”


Krusic et al., 2015  (Himalaya, Bhutan)

“At multidecadal to multicentennial timescales, summer temperatures during much of the fifteenth to eighteenth centuries were below the calibration period average, containing deep [cooling] departures that coincide with minima in solar energy output [Usoskin et al., 2002, 2003]. The warmest period occurs within the most recent decade, 2004–2013 C.E.; however, this period is not statistically unprecedented compared with earlier warm periods, e.g., in the 1650s and late fourteenth century.”


Yadav, 2009  (Western Himalaya)

The decreasing temperature trend in late 20th century is consistent with trends noted in Nepal (Cook et al. 2003), Tibet (Briffa et al. 2001) and Central Asia (Briffa et al. 2001). The cooling trend in late 20th century mean temperature has been found to be due to cooling trend noted in minimum temperature during the second half of the 20th century in semi-arid western Himalaya.”


Zafar et al., 2016 (Pakistan, Karakorum-Himalaya)


Sano et al., 2005  (Nepal)

“March–September temperature was reconstructed for the past 249 years, which shows a warming trend from 1750s until approximately 1790, followed by cooling until 1810, then by a gradual warming trend extending to 1950, and a notable cold period continuing up to the present. No evidence of a consistent warming trend over the last century or two commonly appearing in higher latitudes was found in the present reconstruction”


Li et al., 2011 (Southwest China)


Fan et al, 2009  (Hengduan Mountains, South China)


Yadav and Singh, 2002  (Western Himalaya)

The 1945–1974 period was the warmest 30-yr mean period of the 20th century. However, this warming, in the context of the past four centuries, appears well within the range of normal limits. The 30-yr mean temperature anomaly for 1662–1691 (0.19°C) exceeds in magnitude (although not significantly, p = 0.23) the 1945–1974 mean (0.05°C).”


Himalayan Region 1-2°C Warmer During Medieval Warm Period


[T]he Caucasus Mountains are technically considered to be a continuation of the Himalayas

Solomina et al., 2016 (Caucasus Mountains)

The climate was warmer and glaciers were likely receding in the beginning of the past millennium CE (the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”). … In this pass, remains of wood radiocarbon dated to 700 ± 80 BP  (1180–1420 CE) were buried in a 1.5-m-thick layer of alluvium (Kaplin et al., 1971; Kotlyakov et al., 1973). Currently, the upper tree limit is located 800–900 m below this elevation. … According to indirect estimates based on pollen analyses, the upper tree limit in the “Arkhyz” period was 200–300 m higher than today (Tushinsky, Turmanina, 1979). The remains of ancient buildings and roads were also found in the Klukhorsky pass at an elevation of 2781 a.s.l. [above sea level] (Tushinsky et al., 1966), and the glacier was still present at this elevation in the mid 20th century. … [I]n Central and East Transcaucasia, there are artificial terraces at elevations where agriculture is not currently possible and that there are remnants of forests in places where forests have not grown since the 16th century CE.”

“Turmanina (1988), based on pollen analysis, suggested that, in the Elbrus area, the climate during the “Arkhyz” time was dryer and warmer than in the late 20th century by 1–2 °C. … Solomina et al. (2014) determined the Medieval warming in the Caucasus to be approximately 1 °C warmer than the mean of the past 4500 years. According to the Karakyol palynological and geochemical reconstructions, the warm period was long and lasted for five centuries. Considering the suggestion of Turmanina (1988) that it was also less humid, the likelihood that many glaciers, especially those located at relatively low elevation, disappeared is very high.  … The maximum glacier extent in the past millennium was reached before 1598 CE.  The advance of the 17th century CE, roughly corresponding to the Maunder Minimum, is recorded at Tsey Glacier. … General glacier retreat started in the late 1840s CE and four to five minor readvances occurred in the 1860s–1880s CE.  In the 20th century CE, the continued retreat was interrupted by small readvances in the 1910s, 1920s and 1970s–1980s.”

Radical Green Obsessions: German Gov Pushing To Devolve Humans To Herbivores

News site t-online.de here writes that visitors to the German Ministry of Environment will be served only vegetarian food, according to German daily Bild.

The order comes from the Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks (Socialist Party) herself. According to reports, food service companies that cater events held at the Ministry are not to provide fish or meat, or products made of meat. The rule has been in effect since February 1st. Also catered food must come from organic farms, be seasonal and locally produced with short transport distances.”

The reason for the new policy? According to the report, the Ministry must act as a “role model” in the fight against the “effects of meat consumption“.

More German climate protection madness in the pipeline
Higher taxes on meat and milk products

The dictation of people’s lifestyles does not only end at the Environment Ministry banning meat and fish at its events. but according to topagrar.com here, the Ministry is also calling for higher taxation nationwide on “animal products such as milk and meat“.

German government herding its citizens to eat like cows. Image: USDA

If the German government gets its way, soon a nutritious and balanced diet will become a luxury that only the rich will be able to afford. The poor will be forced to devolve to diets of herbivores, a level down the food chain. In summary: biological devolution seems to be the new direction of progress in Germany and radical environmentalists. Better to become a lowly herbivore than to risk warming the planet by a degree or two.

Humans are to be herded down the food-chain…back millions of years in evolution.

According to UBA president Maria Krautzberger: “Animal food products need to be taxed at the regular 19% VAT rate.” In Germany food is taxed at a 7% VAT rate. With the added revenue, the Ministry says it aims to lower the tax on plant products. “This will protect the climate and will be less a burden on the taxpayer,” she said. According to topagrar.de, the aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Ministry blames the agricultural industry for being one of the country’s top greenhouse gas emitters. It claims that the production of one kilogram of beef causes between 7 and 28 kilograms of greenhouse gases, whereby 1 kg of fruit or vegetables emits less than a kilogram.

In response, the German association of farming (DBV) sharply criticizes the plans, accusing the Ministry of using misleading figures and focusing in the wrong areas.

DBV president Joachim Rukwied said: “A penalty tax on food will have no positive benefit on climate, but rather will only make the daily purchases made by consumers more expensive.”

Topagrar.de points out that agriculture in fact represents only a small fraction of the total greenhouse gas emissions: 7%, and so the focus is misplaced. Rukwied criticizes:

It is totally incomprehensible how agricultural animal farming can be put in the front row of climate sinners.”

topagrar.de quotes MIV Milk Industry Mndustry Association director Eckhard Heuser:

Milk and milk products are among the fundamental food staples of German citizens. Families with small children, and thus having a high milk consumption, and people with low incomes will be forced to pay disproportionately more.”

The National Union of the Food Industry (BVE) has come out against the ecological control taxation on food, saying that it will only serve to “make products more expensive, distort the market and add more bureaucracy“.

 

Another Climate Alarm Gets Silenced: Study Shows “Tiny Algae, Hugely Resilient”!

What follows is a press release from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany.

It turns out that microalgae — “an important source of food in the oceans” — are far more resilient to changes in ocean pH values than alarmists would like us to believe.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.
===================================

Tiny algae, hugely resilient

Microalgae are microscopically small, single-celled algae species and an important source of food in the oceans. Dr Clara Hoppe of the Alfred Wegener Institute examines how changed living conditions as a result of climate change affect Arctic microalgae.

Clara Hoppe has been observing how Arctic microalgae react to climate change since years. (Photo: Paolo VeAWI biologist)

Dr Clara Hoppe has always had a plan B in place for her Arctic expeditions. “Three years ago, when I started to work in the Arctic, everyone told me to think carefully about what I should do in case the Kongsfjorden area in Svalbard freezes over and I can’t leave with a small ship,” says Clara Hoppe. Many times she ran through the scenario of thick ice blocking the way into the fjord. But plan B never materialised.

“So far, I have never experienced ice on the fjord. The water temperature was always above zero degrees Celsius,” the 32-year-old tells us. The factors that make Clara Hoppe’s job easier in practice, are also the subject of her research: She tries to understand how environmental conditions that are changing as a result of climate change, affect the microalgae of the Arctic Ocean. This includes the rise of the water temperature as well as the acidification of the oceans and changed light conditions in the water due to the decrease in sea ice.

Unlike macroalgae, microalgae are not visible to the naked eye, they are microscopically small, single-celled algae species. They are so tiny that one millilitre of water can contain thousands of them. Because microalgae are an important source of food, such as for crustaceans like krill, a change in their growth, for example, could have far-reaching implications for the Arctic food web.

A special feature about Clara Hoppe’s research: While traditional research on ocean acidification is often carried out in the laboratory, she and her team regularly take several hundred litres of water samples in the Arctic, which allows them to study a diverse community of several dozen algae species that are there at that time. “This greater diversity of species means that we can perform experiments to analyse, which of the many species benefit from climate change and which suffer from it. Also, the relationships between the species can be studied,” Clara Hoppe explains.

Back in Bremerhaven, she, too, spends many hours in the lab. There she subjects the microalgae to different conditions: “For example, we raise the temperature or the carbon dioxide content of the water to observe how the different species from the Arctic respond to this.” One of the things Clara Hoppe analyses is how much biomass the algae create. Do they store more carbon when conditions change? Or more nitrogen? The latter makes the algae much more valuable as a food.

The most important microalgae in the Arctic are diatoms. They create a hard skeleton out of silica to protect themselves from predators. What happens when the water gets warmer or contains more carbon dioxide? If, for example, the diatoms build heavier skeletons, they would sink to the ground more quickly. This also includes the carbon they have fixed into biomass, which means that it would not be part of the global carbon cycle for many years.

These would all be conceivable scenarios. But the surprising thing is this: “I spent years at the microscope and noticed hardly any differences”, Clara Hoppe explains. This is intrinsically a good thing, but the biologist had to get used to it. “As a researcher, I am hardwired, as it were, to detect changes and effects. But in the end I realised that the fact that these organisms do not react as strongly as other species in other regions is incredibly exciting. I want to find out why this is the case. Why are Arctic microalgae so resilient? What are the mechanisms behind this?”

She already has a hypothesis: The microalgae respond differently to environmental changes such as temperature rises. Even within a species, not every microalgae deals with it in the same way. It seems that this flexibility makes the species community as a whole more robust. The greater the diversity within a species, the better the microalgae are able to soften the effects of environmental changes.

“This is a bit like good teamwork,” the biologist says. “To achieve a better overall result, it’s often better to have a team of individuals with different skills and preferences, because whoever is best at something does the job.”

Over time, in a community of algae, the individuals who best adjust to the respective conditions represent a greater percentage of a population and thus make up for the “deficits” of the others. And that could be why the productivity of the algae community can stay the same in the long term.

That’s as far as her hypothesis goes. In practice, Clara Hoppe will continue to go out into the Kongsfjorden to find answers to her questions – but she worries less and less about having to execute plan B.

Contact: Dr. Clara Hoppe

20 New Scientific Papers Link Modern Climate Trends To Solar Forcing


A Robust Sun-Climate Connection

Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists


“The emerging causal effects from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperatures], especially for recent decades, are overwhelmingly proved”

                                                          — Huang et al., 2017


(1)  Yndestad and Solheim, 2017

Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima  and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.”

Below, the trends in Total Solar Irradiance for 1700-2013, which comes from the Yndestad and Solheim (2017) paper cited above, are shown to closely correspond to the temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere (NH, derived from “the mean of 22 regional reconstructions of instrumental JJA [June-August] temperatures“) as shown in Stoffel et al., 2015.


(2) Rydval et al., 2017

“[T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730sAll six [Northern Hemisphere] records show a warmer interval in the period leading up to the 1950s, although it is less distinct in the CEU reconstruction. [E]xtreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. … There is reasonable agreement in general between the records regarding protracted cold periods which occur during the LIA and specifically around the Maunder solar minimum centred on the second half of the seventeenth century and to some extent also around the latter part of the fifteenth century coinciding with part of the Spörer minimum (Usoskin et al. 2007).”

 

  .  


(3) Huang et al., 2017 (full paper)

“Various scientific studies have investigated the causal link between solar activity (SS) and the earth’s temperature (GT). [T]he corresponding CCM [Convergent Cross Mapping] results indicate increasing significance of causal effect from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperature] since 1880 to recent years, which provide solid evidences that may contribute on explaining the escalating global tendency of warming up recent decades. … The connection between solar activity and global warming has been well established in the scientific literature. For example, see references [1–10]. … Among which, the SSA [Singular Spectrum Analysis] trend extraction is identified as the most reliable method for data preprocessing, while CCM [Convergent Cross Mapping] shows outstanding performance among all causality tests adopted. The emerging causal effects from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperatures], especially for recent decades, are overwhelmingly proved, which reflects the better understanding of the tendency of global warming.”

(4) Tejedor et al., 2017

“Reconstructed long-term temperature variations match reasonably well with solar irradiance changes since warm and cold phases correspond with high and low solar activity, respectively. … The main driver of the large-scale character of the warm and cold episodes may be changes in the solar activity. The beginning of the reconstruction starts with the end of the Spörer minimum. The Maunder minimum, from 1645 to 1715 (Luterbacher et al., 2001) seems to be consistent with a cold period from 1645 to 1706. In addition, the Dalton minimum from 1796 to 1830 is detected for the period 1810 to 1838. However, a considerably cold period from 1778 to 1798 is not in agreement with a decrease in the solar activity. Four warm periods – 1626–1637, 1800–1809, 1845– 1859, and 1986–2012 – have been identified to correspond to increased solar activity.”

 


(5) Nan et al., 2017

The SST variation shows a millennial period of ~ 1500-yr and centennial periods of 131-yr and 113-yr. The ~ 1.5 kyr cycle dominated the period of 8.9–5.5 cal. kyr BP, suggesting a tele-connection between the Yellow Sea SST and global climate changes, might through the Kuroshio current. Centennial periods dominated almost all of cold periods recorded in core BY14, implying the signature of solar irradiance cycles by means of the strengthened East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM).”

(6) Deng et al., 2017

The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900–1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850–present), which contradicts previous studies. … As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550–1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity.”

(7) Koutsodendris et al., 2017

“The record represents the southernmost annually laminated (i.e., varved) archive from the Balkan Peninsula spanning the Little Ice Age, allowing insights into critical time intervals of climate instability such as during the Maunder and Dalton solar minima. … [W]et conditions in winter prevailed during 1740–1790 AD, whereas dry winters marked the periods 1790–1830 AD (Dalton Minimum) and 1830–1930 AD, the latter being sporadically interrupted by wet winters. … Representing one of the strongest global climate instabilities during the Holocene, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is marked by a multicentennial-long cooling (14the19th centuries AD) that preceded the recent ‘global warming’ of the 20th century. The cooling has been predominantly attributed to reduced solar activity and was particularly pronounced during the 1645-1715 AD and 1790-1830 AD solar minima, which are known as Maunder and Dalton Minima, respectively.”


(8) Li et al., 2017

“We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation (e.g., Haigh, 1996; Shindell et al., 1999; Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Dykoski et al., 2005).  … The 100, 57 and 23 year periods for PANN [annual precipitation], as well as the 103, 50, and 22 year periods for TANN [annual temperature], correlate well with the 100, 50, 23 and 22 year cycles for the solar activity observed in various solar parameters (e.g., Wilson et al., 1996; Li et al., 1996; Chowdhury et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2014), therefore implying an in-phase relationship between the climatic oscillation in NC [North China] and solar activity.”

 

 

[Reconstructed temperatures for North China show no net warming trend since the mid-20th century.]

(9) Zawiska et al., 2017

“The chironomid-based temperature reconstruction from Lake Atnsjøen in Eastern Norway with mean resolution of 30 years provided evidence that large-scale processes, such as the NAO fluctuations and solar activity modified local climate, and subsequently affected lakes functioning. The three minor cooling periods were reconstructed in the first half of the Millennium: 1050–1150, 1270–1370, 1440–1470 CE, that coincide with solar activity minima: Oort, Wulf, and Spörer respectively. Furthermore, a two peaked cooling period in the second half of the Millennium was identified that coincided with the LIA. These changes co-occurred with the prevailing negative NAO index.”
The beginning of the 1270–1370 CE cooling coincide with Wulf solar activity minimum suggesting that the climate was responding to Sun activity. The climate cooling synchronous to this solar minimum had almost global range and it has been recorded from Europe, Arctic, North America and Antarctica (Osborn and Briffa, 2006; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013) but again not in Greenland (Osborn and Briffa, 2006). … The beginning of the 1440–1470 CE cold period is synchronous to the pronounce negative NAO phase (Trouet et al., 2009). … Maunder solar minimum caused a very deep negative NAO index phase (Shindell et al., 2001), which consecutively lead to significant drop in the reconstructed temperature.”
“The temperature reconstruction from Lake Atnsjøen indicates that recent and ongoing climate warming began already in 1800 CE following the LIA. Temperatures increased very fast, from 8.5 to 12.8 °C during the first 75 years [1800-1875], but in the 20th century the increase became less pronounced. … The warming at the beginning of 19th century in the region of Lake Atnsjøen coincides with a reconstruction from Southern Finland (Luoto, 2013), and a record from Northern Sweden (Osborn and Briffa, 2006).  Its onset correlates with the positive NAO index and increased solar activity.”


(10) Park, 2017

Late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia was likely driven by ENSO variation.   Our tree pollen index of warmness (TPIW) shows important late Holocene cold events associated with low sunspot periods such as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder Minimum. Comparisons among standard Z-scores of filtered TPIW, ΔTSI, and other paleoclimate records from central and northeastern China, off the coast of northern Japan, southern Philippines, and Peru all demonstrate significant relationships [between solar activity and climate]. This suggests that solar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the latter seems to have predominantly controlled the coastal climate of East Asia to the extent that the influence of precession was nearly muted during the late Holocene.”


(11) Matveev et al., 2017

“An increase in atmospheric moisture for the warm period of the year (May–September) since 1890s, and mean annual temperatures since the 1950s was identified. During the same time period [1890s to 2014], there was a marked increase in amplitude of the annual variations for temperature and precipitation. … These [temperature and precipitation] fluctuations are consistent with 10–12-years Schwabe–Wolf, 22-years Hale, and the 32–36-years Bruckner Solar Cycles. There was an additional relationship found between high-frequency (short-period) climate fluctuations, lasting for about three years, and 70–90-years fluctuations of the moisture regime in the study region corresponding to longer cycles. … In the current work, sunspot data were used as a surrogate for solar activity and expressed as the Wolf Number (W). There are several solar cycles which were tested including the Schwabe–Wolf (11 years), Hale (22–24 years), Bruckner (33 years), and Gliessberg (70–90 years) cycles.  … This work revealed that there was a correlation between climatic variables and solar activity maxima and minima (W). The hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) has a phase relationship with W, and then both of these variables with the radial increment relative index maxima and minima in Pinus sylvestris L. (I) during the last 100–140 years.”

(12) Cosentino et al., 2017

“A review of the literature indicates that the climate was significantly less stable than previously supposed during the Holocene, since its warming trend was characterized by relevant short-term cooling events occurring at decennial and centennial scale (Dansgaard et al., 1993; Bond et al., 1999; Mayewski et al., 2004). The most recent cold phase was the Little Ice Age (LIA), which caused the expansion of glaciers in the alpine regions at lower latitudes. Several authors have linked this cooler climatic condition to a period of reduced solar activity (Mauquoy et al., 2002), which caused a decrease in summer insolation (Wanner et al., 2011). … [T]he cooling event known as Little Ice Age (LIA)… persisted more or less from the 13th to the 19th century (Perry and Hsu, 2000). … Furthermore, the fluctuations occurring in the frequency curve of H. balthica could be related to several brief cooling events which characterize the LIA, namely Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton [solar minimum periods] (Lamb, 1984; Mauquoy et al., 2002).”

(13) Schwander et al., 2017

Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of Central European weather types from 1763 to 2009 … Weather types and reanalysis data show that the 11-year solar cycle influences the late winter atmospheric circulation over Central Europe with colder (warmer) conditions under low (high) solar activity. Model simulations used for a comparison do not reproduce the imprint of the 11-year solar cycle found in the reanalyses data.  … Atmospheric circulation over Europe is strongly correlated to the NAO and hence solar activity is thought to have an influence on weather conditions in Europe in winter.  Studies show a preference of cold winters in Europe to be associated with minima in the 11-year solar cycle (e.g., Lockwood et al., 2010; Sirocko et al., 2012). … The 247-year long analysis [1763-2009]  of the 11-year solar cycle impact on late winter European weather patterns suggest a reduction in the occurrence of westerly flow types linked to a reduced mean zonal flow under low solar activity. Following these observation, we estimate the probability to have cold conditions in winter over Europe to be higher under low solar activity than under high activity. Also similar [cold] conditions can occur during periods of prolonged reduced total solar irradiance. …  Solar activity can have effects on the atmospheric circulation through three different mechanisms. These effects may arise from direct changes in total solar irradiance (TSI), from changes in stratospheric ozone induced by changes in solar UV, or from changes in stratospheric ozone induced by energetic particles, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. The ~1 Wm-2 variation in TSI over an 11-yr sunspot cycle corresponds to a change in the radiation forcing of about ~0.17 Wm-2.”

(14) Zielhofer et al., 2017

Western Mediterranean Holocene record of abrupt hydro-climatic changes Imprints of North Atlantic meltwater discharges, NAO and solar forcing …Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. … [A] significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.”

(15) Sun et al., 2017

[A]t least six centennial droughts occurred at about 7300, 6300, 5500, 3400, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP. Our findings are generally consistent with other records from the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon]  region, and suggest that the monsoon intensity is primarily controlled by solar irradiance on a centennial time scale. This external forcing may have been amplified by cooling events in the North Atlantic and by ENSO activity in the eastern tropical Pacific, which shifted the ITCZ further southwards. The inconsistency between local rainfall amount in the southeastern margin of the QTP and ISM intensity may also have been the result of the effect of solar activity on the local hydrological cycle on the periphery of the plateau.”

(16) Zhai, 2017

ENSO is negatively/positively correlated with SSN [sunspot number] when SSN is large/small. … [S]olar activity may take effect on the ENSO, and such an impact should undergo an accumulation procedure (phase delay). XWT also indicates the existence of the impact. It is found that the index is negatively correlated with SSN when SSN is large during a certain long-term interval, and positively when SSN is small. Strong El Niño is inferred to be taken place in decade(s) to come.”

(17) Zhu et al., 2017

“Abrupt enhancements in the flux of pedogenic magnetite in the stalagmite agree well with the timing of known regional paleofloods and with equatorial El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related storms in the Holocene. Spectral power analyses reveal that the storms occur on a significant 500-y cycle, coincident with periodic solar activity and ENSO variance, showing that reinforced (subdued) storms in central China correspond to reduced (increased) solar activity and amplified (damped) ENSO. Thus, the magnetic minerals in speleothem HS4 preserve a record of the cyclic storms controlled by the coupled atmosphere−oceanic circulation driven by solar activity.”

(18) Zhai, 2017

The time series of sunspot number and the precipitation in the north-central China (108° ∼ 115° E, 33° ∼ 41° N) over the past 500 years (1470–2002) are investigated, through periodicity analysis, cross wavelet transform and ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. The results are as follows: the solar activity periods are determined in the precipitation time series of weak statistical significance, but are found in decomposed components of the series with statistically significance; the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is determined to significantly exist in the time series, and its action on precipitation is opposite to the solar activity; the sun is inferred to act on precipitation in two ways, with one lagging the other by half of the solar activity period.”

(19) Malik et al., 2017

“[W]e investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR [Indian summer monsoon rainfall]. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO.”

(20) Huo and Xiao, 2017

“In this paper, the authors investigate a particular feature, the ocean heat content (OHC) anomaly, in different phases of the total solar irradiance (TSI) cycle. The results show that almost opposite spatial patterns appear in the tropical Pacific during the ascending and declining phases of the TSI cycle. Further analysis reveals the presence of the quasi-decadal (~11-year) solar signal in the SST [sea surface temperature], OHC [ocean heat content] and surface zonal wind anomaly field over the tropical Pacific with a high level of statistical confidence (>95%). … In Misios and Schmidt (2012), the ensemble simulations from an AOGCM showed that the tropical SST oscillates almost in-phase with the 11-year solar cycle. White and Liu (2008) also found the fluctuation of the upper ocean warming to be in-phase with TSI [total solar irradiance] on the decadal scale during the twentieth century, governed by a resonant excitation of the tropical delay action oscillator and solar forcing, and the warming stage lagged the solar peak year by one to three years. … [P]atterns of OHC and potential temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific are quite spatially symmetric in the ascending and declining phases, which seems phase-locked with the phases of the TSI cycle. The most significant regions of the OHC anomaly are locate just in the high correlation areas (beyond the 95% confidence level), which are ‘solar-sensitive’ regions with a clear quasi-11-year period.”

Increased Surface Solar Radiation (Via Reduced Cloud Cover) Explains Post-1980s Warming


(21) Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2017

“Trends of all-sky downward surface solar radiation (SSR) from satellite-derived data over Europe (1983–2010) are first presented. The results show a widespread (i.e., non-local dimension) increase in the major part of Europe, especially since the mid-1990s in the central and northern areas and in springtime. There is a mean increase of SSR of at least 2 W m− 2 per decade from 1983 to 2010 over the whole Europe, which, taking into account that the satellite-derived product lacks of aerosol variations, can be mostly related to a decrease in the cloud radiative effects over Europe. … Downward surface solar radiation (SSR) is a critical part of the Global Energy Balance and the climate system … A widespread decrease of SSR from the 1950s to the 1980s [when global cooling occurred] has been observed (Liepert, 2002; Stanhill and Cohen, 2001; Wild, 2009), followed by an increase of SSR since the mid-1980s [coincident with global warming]… Pinker et al. (2005) used a different product (2.5° resolution) and found that the derived global mean SSR series underwent a significant increase of 1.6 W m−2 per decade from 1983 to 2001. … On the other hand, Hatzianastassiou et al. (2005) derived a SSR product from 1984 to 2000 (2.5° resolution) and reported a significant increase of +2.4 W m−2 per decade in the global mean series, which is considerably higher than the results from Pinker et al. (2005) and Hinkelman et al. (2009).”

(22) Urban et al., 2017

From the 1950s to the 1980s, a decline in the intensity of solar radiation was observed (Stanhill and Cohen 2001; Liepert 2002). This phenomenon was dubbed “global dimming”. Later research demonstrated that from the mid-1980s onwards, an increase in solar radiation followed, which was referred to as “global brightening” (Wild et al. 2005; Pinker et al. 2005). Reasons for shifts in radiation trends have not been fully determined; these may result from changes in atmospheric transparency caused by variations in cloud cover or concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols (Wild 2009). … An important work that covered as many as 237 stations grouped into the five climatic regions and concerned, inter alia, sunshine duration trends from 1961 to 2004 in six South American countries, was published by Raichijk (2012). The results of that study confirm downward trends in sunshine duration from the 1950s until the 1980s and upward ones since the beginning of the 1990s, which were also observed in other regions of the world. Satellite short-wave radiation data spanning the period from 1984 to 2005 confirm the results obtained at ground sunshine duration measurement stations in all five climatic regions of South America. Upward sunshine duration trends are associated with an increase in the intensity of solar radiation and a decrease in cloud cover (Raichijk 2012). It should be stressed that both insolation and cloud cover are primarily related to atmospheric circulation and are influenced by heat balance and local conditions (Dubicka and Limanówka 1994).”

Germans Horrified That Forests, “Strictly Protected” Species, Being Cleared Away For Wind Parks

In Germany forests are almost considered sacred, and are powerfully anchored into the German cultural psyche. Disturbing them is absolutely frowned upon, to put it mildly. This is all the more reason why Germans nationwide have been horrified by the mass deforestation taking place to make way for industrial wind parks.

The latest (shocking) example comes from south Germany, just north of Heidelberg, where the deforestation of the Wald Michelbach (along with the destruction of the homes of strictly protected species and biotope) is taking place.

German SWF public televisions recently reported on a protest mounted by concerned and shocked citizens who could not believe that the untouched forest was being chopped down.

Since Germany opted to shut down its nuclear power capacity in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan, southern Germany has been looking for other sources of energy — and wind industry lobbyists seized the opportunity and have been pushing hard for wind power ever since.

Unfortunately the few ideal locations where wind power has any chance to perform are forested hilltops that make up the region’s idyllic landscape. Most feasibility studies show that the wind even at these locations is still not in great enough supply to make it worthwhile. Yet, that isn’t stopping the powerful wind industry from getting its way. Approvals in protected areas have been muscled and cajoled, against the will of the people and the common good.

The SWF report shows local protesters mobilizing soon after having heard that deforestation machinery had started clearing trees and destroying the habitat of many “strictly” protected species like the red kite hawk, owls and bats.

One upset protester commented:

The senselessness is incomprehensible. […] That you can rescue the climate by destroying the forest – I cannot understand it.”

The police were called in to remove the protesters.

Guido Carl of German of BUND (Friends of the Earth Germany), a leading environmental protection organization in the country (one that has long been accused of caving in to the wind industry) however thinks that the destruction of the forest is the right thing to do and that it “simply has to be accepted” in order to protect the climate.

Another protester points out that it is a fact the amount of wind in that part of the country is not enough and that it cannot make any real contribution to the Energiewende. He then adds that “you hardly can get by the mafia, you could say, the brainwashing that’s been put out to the people. As soon as you say you’re against wind turbines, you get labelled sick, which is complete nonsense.”

Ironically, in earlier times, most of the protesters had bought into the green energy promises. Today they stand shocked to see the destruction that it’s in fact wreaking. Unfortunately the project is only the very beginning of what the politicians and wind industry hope to achieve.

Here’s a shot of the forested hills where 5 industrial turbines are to be installed, despite the “strictly protected birds” inhabiting the area:

Image cropped from SWF.

The SWF reports that it is “incomprehensible” how a building permit could have been awarded. But everyone knows why: There’s big industrial wind money in the game paying off any bureaucratic obstacles and annoyances in the way — and all with the help of the BUND Friends of the Earth Germany, of course. BUND’s Guido Carl:

You have to expect that people at first will be upset about it, which is their personal right. How they cope over the long term is another issue. Studies show as a rule that people who live in the vicinity of wind turbines find a way of getting along with them over time.”

In this particular case, judging by the people’s outrage, I wouldn’t bet on it.

German Power Consumers Now Saddled By Staggering 35 Billion Euros In Taxes, Feed-In Tariffs

Here’s an addendum to what I wrote here about German electric power a couple of days ago. Apparently things are worse than we thought. The climate protection scam is truly a colossal cash-cow for the government and a narrow special interest.

German power now costing consumers tens of billions of euros. Chart above shows Germany’s average household price per kilowatt-hour. Image: BDEW.

According to manager magazin, power consumers are now paying 35 billion euros in taxes and feed-in tariffs annually:

Households in Germany are paying with their electric bills more than 35 billion euros for taxes, surcharges and feed-in tariffs this year. The biggest share is the EEG renewable energy feed-in tariff with 24 billion.”

The taxes, tariffs and surcharges represent 55% of the German power bill, almost double what it was in 1998. manager-magazin reports the average kilowatt-hour of electric power has now reached 29.16 euro-cents, and blames the feed-in act as the main price-driver.

German households are currently paying over 100 euros a month just for their electric bills – a “record level”. The manager magazin reports that the average household now pays 1223 euros a year for power, up 2% from a year earlier.

The vast majority of analysts say the price spiral will continue, with no end in sight over the next few years.

Investing in Mexico

Not only electricity consumers are being hit, but so is Europe’s green power sector, which was once touted as a jobs creation machine for the future. German national daily Die Welt here reports that electrical engineering giant Siemens will close a wind energy production equipment facility in neighboring Denmark, thus costing 430 jobs. The closure comes at the heels of the company announcing the lay off 150 workers at its rotor blade facility in Aalborg. Siemens cites a streamlining of its operations and reports of record orders for wind turbine equipment this year.

The company also announced plans to invest some 200 million dollars in Mexico over the coming decade, which according to Chairman Joe Kaeser will create 1000 jobs.

It’ll be interesting to see if the equipment will be exported from Mexico and into the United States.

Solar Cycle Quietest in 200 Years – And Surface Warming Much Slower Than Model Projections!

The sun in January 2017, and: a “pause” or not?

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
Translated/condensed by P Gosselin
)

In the previous month our sun was very quiet. A month earlier there had been little activity at first, but then picked up some later in the month. On average the sunspot number SSN was 25.8, which was 47% of what is normal 97 months into the cycle – calculated from the previous 23 solar cycles.

Figure 1: The monthly activity of solar cycle 24 since December 2008 (red) compared to the mean solar cycles 1-23 (blue) and the very similar SC 5 (black).

A comparison to solar cycle 5 (the second weakest solar cycle so far) shows that the current cycle has been much weaker over the past 23 months. Indeed during this particular period no solar cycle was ever as weak as solar cycle 24 now is. An overall comparison of the activity of all solar cycles, 98 months in, is as follows:

Figure 2: A comparison of all observed solar cycles. SC 24 is safely in 3rd place for low activity. Cycle No. 19 (1954…1964) had 2.5 times more sun pots than the current cycle thus far.

In our last solar report we wagered a look into the future by looking at the gradually growing solar polar fields. The fundamental data has been corrected slightly downwards (a normal quality management step) and we wish to present here once again the updated comparison of all the cycles for this observed magnitude:

Figure 3: The polar fields of solar cycles 21…24 (clockwise) each up to 1400 days after the zero-point (black) for the sun’s southern pole (red) and of the northern pole (blue).

We’ve already seen the maximum on average. You’ll find the best website here when it comes to solar data. The behavior of SC 24 is so far very remarkable!

Pause or no pause?

A controversy erupted in early February: A retired former NOAA employee – John Bates – wrote in a lengthy post at Judith Curry’s blog about how NOAA head Tom Karl used unclean data in a study from the year 2015. The study supported the position that a “pause”, i.e. a considerably slower rise in global temperature after 1997, hadn’t occured. A rather tumultuous quarrel then ensued, as the claims made by John Bates have since been refuted. Fuel was added to the topic, when an article appearing in the “Mail on Sunday”, which contained some inaccuracies.

Apparently whistle blower John Bates had found some NOAA data quality management deficiencies. First it was determined that a computer program that had been used to compute the temperature was lost and thus the calculations were no longer reproducible. The study had a huge impact on the political discussion during the run-up to the Paris Climate Treaty. Bates later stated that data manipulation could not be shown.

In the course of this heated discussion, a new “official” sea surface temperature series dubbed ERSSTv5 was released. Here a small part of the warming of the previous series was recalculated beginning in the year 2000. A great amount of controversy has swirled about the new series, so it is important to keep the focus on where it really counts.

All decisions made today are based on models from the IPCC AR5. Let’s compare what the models projected to the the ERSSTv4 series – the current warming of the global ocean surface:

Figure 4: Comparison of ERSSTv4 series (blue) to the model mean 1979…2016 (red).

The global trend of the temperatures for the ocean surface is over 70% too high!

ERSSTv4 shows 0.109°C per decade warming while the model is far more generous, showing 0.154°C/decade over the time period 1979-2016.

Here it has to be taken into account that in the real world an El-Nino occurred at the end of the measured period, which skews the trend upwards. In two or three years the deviation between the real world and the model world will grow. The models are calculating excessive warming and overstating the effect by CO2. That is the core of the truth that you can take away from this.

 

Most Polar Bears Live In Canada, Where There Has Been No Net Warming For Centuries. So Why Are They Endangered?

Modern Polar Bear Habitat Among

Coldest  Of The Last 10,000 Years


Image Source: slideshare.net

The habitat range for polar bears extends across the circumpolar boundaries of the Arctic Ocean, primarily inclusive of North America (Canada), coastal Greenland, and northern Russia (Siberia, Northern Europe).  However, about 70 percent —  13 of 19 subpopulations — of the Earth’s polar bears reside in Canada.  And Canada not only has not been warming to any unusual degree in the last few centuries, modern temperatures are still colder now than they have been for most of the last 10,000 years.


A Benighted Short-Term Climate Perspective

The media-popularized viewpoint that insists polar bears are sweltering under an imminent threat of extinction due to global warming in general and Arctic warming in particular is benighted by a lack of appreciation or understanding of a long-term geological context.

For most advocates of the position that climate changes in the Arctic are predominantly caused by the explosive rise in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions since the mid-20th century, there is a conspicuous hyper-focus on the climate monitoring period beginning in the 1950s…or the late 1970s, when the satellite era began (and polar sea ice could be monitored).  The problem with this short-term perspective, of course, is that the 1950s to 1980s were a cold period in the Arctic, so any trend line beginning in those years will skew towards the point of view that more recent warming is unusual, if not unprecedented.  As the graphs below illustrate, the 1920s to 1940s were a relatively warm period in the Arctic — similarly as warm as the most recent decades.  The willful selection of the coldest decades of the last 100 years as the prerequisite starting point for examining modern climatic trends is reflective of the tendentious narrow-mindedness afflicting most advocates of the position that we humans pose a dangerous threat to the biosphere.  Expanding one’s perspective and focus beyond the last 60 or 70 years, or even a cursory look at the long-term climatic context as presented in the scientific literature, severely undercuts the perspective that recent climate changes in the Arctic are unusual, remarkable, or unprecedented.


Yamanouchi, 2011 (Arctic)


  Graph adapted from Climate4you, HadCRUT4 data

Using A Long-Term Context, Canada Has Not Been Warming


A few million years ago, the Canadian Arctic’s mean annual temperatures were about 18°C warmer than they are now.  During the summers many regions of the Arctic Ocean were sea-ice-free.  And yet polar bears survived these balmy, sea-ice-free climates anyway.


Cronin and Cronin, 2015

Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice free conditions existed in some regions. … At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake ‘‘E’’) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8°C warmer than modern and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT [mean annual temperatures] were 11.8°C and 18.3°C higher than today.”
[A] seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common … regionally during the early Holocene [6,000 to 10,000 years ago]. … Some species thought to be dependent on summer sea ice (e.g., polar bears) survived through these periods.” 

Although not as warm as a few million years ago, the polar bears’ Canadian habitat was nonetheless multiple degrees Celsius warmer than now as recently as a few thousand years ago.  Not only that, but the “reconstructed temperatures [for the Canadian Arctic] do not indicate a warming” during the last 150 years.  In other words, the (1) modern day Arctic temperature trends, the (2) sea ice loss trend observed via satellites since the late 1970s, and the (3) modern seal-hunting practices of the “endangered” 21st century polar bear…are all well within the range of what has occurred naturally, or without human interference, for the last several thousand years.  Polar bears have survived much warmer temperatures than this in the past, and the likelihood they will continue to survive in today’s relatively cold Arctic climate is high too.

Below are samples of available climate reconstructions for Canada and other locations (Siberia, Greenland, Northern Europe) where polar bears live.  Each demonstrate that there is nothing unusual about the modern day Arctic climate…other than it may be colder than most of the last 10,000 years.  And each demonstrate that the hand-wringing about polar bear species extinction potentialities due to today’s non-global warming is, to put it bluntly, much ado about nothing.


Fortin and Gajewski, 2016 (Canadian Arctic)

“Biological production decreased again at ~ 2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka [2,000 years], with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka [460 and 360 years ago], coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.”


Moore et al., 2001 (Canadian Arctic)

Summer temperatures at Donard Lake [Canadian Arctic] over the past 1250 yrs averaged 2.9 °C.  At the beginning of the 13th century, Donard Lake experienced one of the largest climatic transitions in over a millennium. Average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly 2 °C from 1195–1220 AD [+0.80 °C per decade], ending in the warmest decade in the record (~4.3 °C).

[The 19th century average was higher than the 20th century average, and the 20th century average was lower than the average of the last 1,250 years.]


Cook et al., 2009  (Canadian Arctic)


Renssen et al., 2009 (Canada, Eastern)


Viau and Gajewski, 2009 (Canada, Central)


Naulier et al., 2015  (Canada)

 


Polar Bears’ Siberian Habitat Is Colder Now Than Most Of The Last 10,000 Years


Hantemirov and Shiyatov, 2002 (Siberia, Northwestern)


Tarasov et al., 2009 (Siberia, Southern)


Polar Bears’ Greenland Habitat No Warmer Now Than In The 1920s, 1930s


Zhao et al., 2016   (Greenland Ice Sheet)


Hasholt et al., 2016 (Southeast Greenland)

“We determined that temperatures for the ablation measurement periods in late July to early September were similar in both 1933 and the recent period [1990s – present], indicating that the temperature forcing of ablation within the early warm period and the present are similar.”


Greenland Is Colder Now Than Most Of The Last 10,000 Years


Lecavalier et al., 2013 (North Greenland)


Thomas et al., 2016 (Greenland, West)

“Paired climate and ice sheet records from previous warm periods can elucidate the factors influencing GrIS mass balance on time scales longer than the observational record [Briner et al., 2016]. During the middle Holocene, temperature on Greenland was ~ 2°C higher than present [Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Axford et al., 2013].”

holocene-cooling-greenland-west-thomas-16-temps


Aizen et al., 2016 (Asia, Greenland Ice Sheet)

“[P]eriods warmer than modern periods occurred for ∼6.5 ka [6,500 years] including during the HCO [Holocene Climate Optimum] and Medieval Warm Period.”


Northern Europe Is Colder Now Than Most Of The Last 10,000 Years


Esper et al., 2014 (Northern Europe)

Renowned Princeton Physicist Schools New York Times Science Journalist On CO2 Science!

Renowned Princeton physicist William Happer told New York Times science journalist Andrew Revkin in an online video conference that he believes the world has got it all wrong when it comes to the implications of CO2 emissions into our atmosphere.

 

Happer told Revkin that “any dispassionate weighing of the facts would give you a negative cost of carbon” and that “more CO2 is good for the world“.

Moreover Happer believes that the whole climate issue has “distracted people from real problems” like massive pollution in places like China and India.

Happer adds that he thinks “enormous damage has been done to the environment by diverting money from real problems to completely made up problems.”

He tells the New York Times journalist that he absolutely sees CO2 as a “non-problem” and that he even sees the trace gas “as good“. He reiterates: “Let me be clear: It think it’s not a problem. I think it’s a good thing.”

 

Germans Face Pain As Power Prices Surge To “Record Levels”, Renewables Go “Almost AWOL”

German electrical power analyst Verivox here issued a press release announcing that electricity will be more expensive in the coming months for many German households: 75 primary utilities are increasing their electricity prices by an average of 3.4% in February alone – this according to a study by Verivox experts.

For a family of four with an annual consumption of 4000 kWh, that means extra costs of 42 euros per year. Already tens of thousands of households are living in energy poverty.

At the start of the year some 354 power utilities cranked up the prices. This means that about half of all utilities have increased their power prices during the first months of 2017.

Rising feed-in charges, grid fees and costs

One reason for the increased prices is the higher renewable energy feed-in charges, reports Verivox. At the start of the year they climbed to a record 6.88 cents per kilowatt-hour. Verivox writes that the prices for power are now at “record levels”.

Wind and solar power disappeared in January

Meanwhile the online Die Welt N24 here reports how wind and solar power practically completely disappeared over a period of weeks during the dead of winter in Germany — as a high pressure system with fog and windless days persisted over much of central Europe — and “brought Germany’s power supply at the limit“.

The German site writes that renewable energy lobbyists prefer to be silent during the long and dark winter months, adding: “In January the German green energy systems as power suppliers went almost totally AWOL weeks long“:

Chart above shows Germany’s total power consumption in January (upper curve) compared to solar (yellow) and wind (blue) energy. From January 16 to January 26 wind and solar power almost disappeared entirely. Chart source: Agora here.

Over the past years Germany has taken a number of conventional power plants offline, and now officials worry that there is no longer sufficient steady base load available, and that there thus needs to be an incentive to install new gas power plants. Currently no power companies are investing in such new plants, and are in fact taking more and more offline due to a lack of profitability. This is increasingly putting the grid at risk. The consequences? Die Welt N24 reports:

The lack of controllable power plants put the grid operators during the January doldrums already under heavy stress.”

According to Stefan Kapferer, Head Director of the BDEW German Association for Energy and Water Management: “The German government itself sees that that the current market system is not adequate to guarantee supply security. Otherwise it would not be keeping different power plant reserves on the market and adding new ones.

In summary, Germany is still taking more conventional power plants offline, but ordering them to remain on standby (at a loss) as reserves for cases like those we saw last month. Policymakers are playing Russian Roulette with Germany’s power grid.

 

Station At Germany’s Highest Summit Measures Midwinter Cooling Of Over -3°C Over Past 30 Years!

The summit of Germany’s tallest mountain, Zugspitze, located in the Bavarian Alps near the Austrian border, is 2,962 meters high and thus well isolated from any temperature data corruption sources, such as urban sprawl.

The weather station at the “Top of Germany” has measured 3°C of cooling for the month of January over the past thirty years. Photo cropped here.

The Zugspitze’s peak find itself at an elevation where global warming theory tells us the warming would really be most noticeable. However the January data over the past 30 years tell us a very different story. Instead of warming, the atmosphere at that location above Europe has been cooling, and doing so quite impressively.

Josef Kowatsch, a self proclaimed “active environmentalist and independent researcher” has crunched the data for January from Germany’s DWD National Weather Service himself and found the following for the Zugspitze station:

 

January mean temperature at the summit of the Zugspitze over the past 30 years has plummeted over 3°C. Chart: Josef Kowatsch.

He comments that our supposedly independent media — the DPA and the AFP — have maintained that “winter has been continuously warming. But this is how the warming looks at the Zugspitze.”

Another interesting aspect about the Zugspitze is the movement of its Höllentalferner glacier. According to Wikipedia here, “the Höllentalferner reached its greatest around 1820 with an area of 47 hectares. Thereafter its area reduced continually until the period between 1950 and 1981 when it grew again, by 3.1 hectares to 30.2 hectares. Since then the glacier has lost (as at 2006) an area of 5.5 hectares and now has an area of 24.7 hectares.”

That means the glacier GREW during the 1950 to 1981 period – fully in line with the global cooling period of the 20th century, which NASA has recently been trying to fudge out. Also it tells us the retreat began well before the start of the industrial revolution, and thus natural factors are more at play.

 

More Data Manipulation By NOAA, NASA, HadCRUT…Cooling The Past, Warming the Present


Global Temperature Data Manipulation

 Thousands Of Non-Urban Thermometers Removed 

0.3°C Of Pause-Busting Warmth Added Since 1998

0.5°C Of Warming Removed From 1880-1950 Trend


Over the course of the last few decades, overseers of the 3 main 19th century-to-present global temperature data sets — NOAA, NASA, and HadCRUT — have been successfully transforming the temperature record to the shape dictated by climate models.  Namely, there has been a concerted effort to cool down the past — especially the 1920s to 1940s warm period — and to warm up the more recent decades, especially after about 1950.  In this way, a trend of steep linear warming emerges that looks similar to the linear shape of anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the 20th and 21st centuries.  A better fit between anthropogenic CO2 emissions and surface temperature helps to imply causation, and this ostensible correlation-turned-causation can then be used to justify policy decisions aimed at eliminating fossil fuel energies.


75% Of GHCN Temperature Stations Removed Since 1970s


One of the most unheralded means by which this temperature “shaping” occurs has been the tendentious and wholesale removal of thousands of weather station land thermometers from remote, high altitude, and/or non-urban locations since the 1970s.  These are stations which do not show the warming trends predicted by models, as they are not affected by proximity to artificial or non-climatic heat sources (pavements, buildings, machinery, industry, etc.) like urban weather stations are.  (As detailed below, locating thermometers near urban heat sources can cause warming biases of between 0.1 and 0.4°C per decade.)

If a highly disproportionate number of non-urban weather stations are removed from the global temperature archive, the urban-based thermometers will be weighted much more heavily than they were before the non-urban stations were removed.  And therefore, the temperature record will show (much) more warming — even though the additional warmth is not climatic, but artificial.

And this is exactly what has happened.  The Global Historical Climatology Network, or GHCN, is the primary source for temperature data records from all over the world.  NOAA, NASA, and HadCRUT heavily rely on GHCN for temperature histories in constructing their global data sets dating back to the 1800s.  According to McKitrick (2010), there were still between 5,000 and 6,000 weather stations across the globe contributing to the GHCN temperature archive as recently as the 1970s.  Today (or as of 2009), there are only a little over 1,000 left — 75% of the thermometers used in the 1970s have disappeared.  There are now fewer weather stations contributing to the GHCN than there were in 1919.

Astonishingly, as many as half (49% as of 2009) of the weather stations across the globe used by the GHCN are now located on the (paved) grounds of airports.


McKitrick, 2010

“There are three main global temperature histories: the combined CRU-Hadley record (HADCRU), the NASA-GISS (GISTEMP) record, and the NOAA record. All three global averages depend on the same underlying land data archive, the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). Because of this reliance on GHCN, its quality deficiencies will constrain the quality of all derived products.”
“The number of weather stations providing data to GHCN plunged in 1990 and again in 2005. The sample size has fallen by over 75% from its peak in the early 1970s, and is now smaller than at any time since 1919.”



Growing bias toward airport sources

“The collapse in sample size has increased the relative fraction of data coming from airports to about 50 percent (up from about 30 percent in the 1970s). … The change in the sample was not uniform with respect to source type. For instance it has biased the sample towards airport locations. GHCN had already been heavily-weighted towards airports, which, for many reasons, are not suitable for climatic monitoring. A problem with airports is that they are often in urban or suburban locations that have been built up in the past few decades, and the increase in global air travel has led to increased traffic, pavement, buildings and waste heat, all of which are difficult to remove from the temperature record. … [A]t the global level, as of 2009 49% of all GHCN data came from airports (46% NH, 59% SH), up from just over 20 percent in the late 1920s.”   —  McKitrick, 2010


NOAA’s Tom Karl Was Once Concerned About Urban/Airport Warm Bias


During the late 1980s, the warm bias of 0.1°C to 0.4°C per decade attributed to the urban (or airport) siting of temperature stations was thought to severely compromise the global temperature data sets, with “a substantial portion of the overall trend of global and regional temperatures” directly reflecting this warm bias.   The “artificial warming in the primary station network” never went away.  But it is now just ignored.


Karl and Quayle, 1988

“Karl et al., 1988) has shown that at some ‘sun belt’ cities in the West, the rise of temperature that can be attributed to the urban heat island is as much as 0.3 to 0.4°C per decade. In the East, the rise is over 0.1°C per decade. … The artificial warming in the primary station network, relative to the climate division data, is nearly 0.17°C over the past 34 years [since ~1950]. Such trends are at least as large as any of the observed trends over the United States (Karl, 1988) or the globe (Jones and Wigley, 1987).”

Karl and Jones, 1989

“Results indicate that in the United States the two global land-based temperature data sets have an urban bias between +0.1°C and +0.4°C over the twentieth century (1901-84). … At present, only rough estimates of the potential impacts of urbanization can be given.  This includes an urban bias in the Hansen and Lebedeff (1987) [NASA] data over the United States between 0.3°C and 0.4°C over the 20th century, which is larger than the overall trend in the United States over this period. … To our knowledge, the United States is the only large area of the globe where the magnitude of this bias has been thoroughly studied.”
“The magnitude of this urban bias in two global, land-based data sets was found to be a substantial portion of the overall trend of global and regional temperatures.”

Kukla, Gavin, and Karl, 1986

“Meteorological stations located in an urban environment in North America warmed between 1941 and 1980, compared to the countryside [cooling], at an average rate of about 0.12°C per decade.  Secular trends of surface air temperature computed predominantly from [urban] station data are likely to have a serious warm bias. … [W]e compared trends of the 34 urban/rural station pairs…urban stations show a warming with respect to the countryside throughout most of the year. 
The average annual difference of the trends is about +0.11°C per decade [of non-climatic warming due to urban location]. … The average difference between trends [urban siting vs. rural] amounts to an annual warming rate of 0.34°C/decade.  … The reason why the warming rate in subset D is considerably higher [may be] that the rate may have increased after the 1950s, commensurate with the large recent growth in and around airports. … Our results and those of others show that the urban growth inhomogeneity is serious and must be taken into account when assessing the reliability of temperature records.”

Growing bias toward lowland sites

“The steady increase [in the mean altitude of temperature stations above sea level until the 1980s] is consistent with a move inland of the network coverage, and also increased sampling in mountainous locations. The sample collapse in 1990 is clearly visible as a drop not only in numbers but also in altitude, implying the remote high-altitude sites tended to be lost in favour of sites in valley and coastal [urban] locations. This happened a second time in 2005. Since low-altitude sites tend to be more influenced by agriculture, urbanization and other land surface modification, the failure to maintain consistent altitude of the sample detracts from its statistical continuity.  … GHCN has progressively lost more and more high latitude sites (e.g. towards the poles) in favour of lower-latitude sites. Other things being equal, this implies less and less data are drawn from remote, cold regions and more from inhabited, warmer regions.” —  McKitrick, 2010


The Results: Artificial Land Warming Since 1980


NOAA Global Land vs. Sea 

HadCRUT Land vs. Ocean Temperature Anomalies

NOAA Adds +0.3°C Of Warming (Relative To Satellites) Since 1998


Earlier this month, the Karl et al. (2015) “pause-buster” paper was once again subjected to significant criticism by another former NOAA scientist (Tom Karl was NOAA’s Director during 2015) due to allegations there were political motivations to rush the paper to press before the (December) 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference without requisite quality checks.  The motivation was obvious: If the inconvenient pause in global warming reported by the IPCC in 2013 could be eliminated, it would be a significant development that might encourage government leaders to pledge to reduce CO2 emissions.   Unfortunately, the original temperature data used to compute the new trend (For 1998–2014, our new global trend is 0.106± 0.058°C dec−1) in the NOAA publication has been “lost” on a faulty computer that had undergone a “complete failure,” leaving little chance for independent replication or verification.

Since then, the New York Times has issued a defense of the NOAA controversy by claiming that the 1998-2014 trend used in the Karl et al. (2015) paper has been independently verified by other scientists, as well as by satellite data, to show that the +0.11°C per decade trend (+0.2°C overall) between 1998-2014 was consistent across all data sets.

This claim is false, of course.   Using the raw data available and the WoodForTrees interactive tool, we see that the trend discrepancy for the period under consideration (1998-2014) in the Karl paper is nearly 0.3°C when comparing the recently created NOAA trend to satellites (RSS).  There is as much as a 0.5°C difference between the NOAA/NASA GIS and RSS trend line end points (December, 2014).  The -0.1°C cooling that emerges in the satellite data has been transformed into a +0.2°C warming by Karl et al. (2015).  Almost immediately after its publication, the new warming trend for 1998-2014 was accepted by NASA and HadCRUT as well, allowing all three long-term data sets to now show significant warming when there had previously been a pause, even cooling.


Source: WoodForTrees

HadCRUT Erases 1998-2012 Slight Cooling Trend By Changing Versions


Changing unpalatable temperature trends in time for an event of intergovernmental and public policy significance has happened before.

The combined Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT) data set — which is featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports — underwent a revision from version 3 to version 4 in March of 2012.  This was about a year before the latest IPCC report was to be released (2013).  At the time (early 2012), it was quite inconvenient to the paradigm that HadCRUT3 was highlighting a slight global cooling trend between 1998 and 2012, as shown in the graph below (using HadCRUT3 and HadCRUT4 raw data from WoodForTrees).

Graphs used by the IPCC depicting a slight cooling trend since 1998 would not be acceptable to policymakers wishing to emphasize the urgency of addressing dangerous global warming.  So, just in time for the 2013 edition of the IPCC report, about 0.1°C was added to the 1998-2012 HadCRUT trend.  The effect was to transform the slight cooling into what the IPCC called a “hiatus” from warming.  To achieve the removal of the slight cooling trend found in HadCRUT3, the more recent anomalies in HadCRUT4 were warmed up (by 0.1 to 0.2°C), whereas the past warmth (especially around 1998) was left intact.  The effect was to warm the present and cool the past.


Source: WoodForTrees

IPCC (2013) analysis of the 1998-2012 “hiatus” from warming:

“For the period 1998–2012, 111 of the 114 climate-model simulations show a surface-warming trend larger than the observations.”
“During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends.”
“Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus.

NASA Has Removed Almost 0.5°C From 1880-1950 Warming Since The 1990s


As recently as 1990, it was widely accepted that the global temperature trend, as reported by NASA (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987), showed a “0.5°C rise between 1880 and 1950.”


Pirazzoli, 1990


This 0.5°C rise in global temperatures between 1880-1950 (and 0.6°C between 1880 and 1940) can clearly be seen in the NASA GISS graph from 1987:


Schneider, S. H. 1989. The greenhouse effect: Science and policy. Science 243: 771-81.

Today, it is no longer acceptable for the HadCRUT, NASA, and NOAA global temperature data sets to graphically depict a strong warming trend during the first half of the 20th century.  This is because anthropogenic CO2 emissions were flat and negligible relative to today during this abrupt warming period, as shown here:



So as to eliminate the inconvenience of a non-anthropogenic warming trend in modern times, NASA and NOAA have removed all or nearly all the 0.5°C of warming between 1880 and 1950.  If past raw temperature data do not fit the narrative that human CO2 emissions drive climate change, the raw data must be changed.  In this way, the paradigm is kept alive.


NASA GISS graph

 

Legendary Motor Developer Calls Electric Cars An “Environmental Fraud” …”Dangerous False Path”!

Professor Friedrich Indra has been retired since 2005 and is considered to be one of the world’s leading engine developers. The 76-year old used to work for Audi and General Motors.

Electric mobility is an environmental fraud, says world leading expert in engine technology. Image: Tesla

“Doesn’t solve single environmental problem”

In a recent interview with the online FOCUS news magazine he raised a lot of eyebrows by stating that he thinks electric mobility is a “dangerous false path”, claiming that the electric car “does not solve a single environmental problem” and that it “contributes nothing to climate protection”.

Indra calls the claims that electric cars are CO2-free “absurd”.

Fake efficiency

Citing an earlier stiudy by a Professor Spicha, Indra says that the well-to-wheel-CO2 of an electric car in Germany is in fact 1.6 times worse than the conventional internal combustion engine. The CO2 perforamnce of an electric car in China is even four to five times worse when it comes to consumption, and that does not mention the huge energy quantities needed for manufacturing the batteries that electric cars need, which would be enough to power a conventional automobile 30,000 kilometers, he told FOCUS.

Electric cars also have the problems of recycling the batteries, as they are a long way from being fully recyclable.

According to Indra, internal combustion engines have made “very impressive progress“, saying: “The motors are continuously getting more powerful and more fuel efficient.” The engine expert believes that the final solution is “CO2-neutral synthetic fuels. They need as much CO2 for for their manufacture as emitted when in operation.”

The “second greatest environmental fraud”

When it comes to hybrid automobiles, Indra opinion is harsh, calling the plug-in-hybrids “the second greatest environmental fraud because the determination of the fuel consumption does not even include the power that was previously needed to charge up the car.” This is how “sportscars using the technology come up with perverse values like 3.1 liters consumption per 100 km [80 mpg]”.

In the interview Indra rails against what he calls “widespread hatred against internal combustion engines” among the media and policymakers, who he says exploited the VW emissions test cheating affair to spread more hate against the internal combustion engines. He thinks the scandal was played up by the media and is “completely disassociated from fact“. Never has “industry and policymaking acted so irrationally“. He believes politicians are in for a rude awakening once the true costs start coming in.

Toy for the rich

On the current a future trend of electric cars, Indra tells FOCUS:

In the meantime in some countries the market share by pure electric cars is already retreating. That’s also going to happen with the plug-in-hybrids after all the ‘rich people’ are supplied with these cars.”

Massive government subsidies

He says the claimed “success” of electric cars in China and Norway is due to massive government subsidies: “No country in the world can afford that over the long-term. That will level off once again, as is already the case in Norway.”

 

3 Recent Studies Indisputably Show Solar Activity Is Very Powerful Climate Driver!


New papers show clear impact by solar activity on the earth’s climate. Images: NASA Earth Observatory.

Solar activity fluctuations control the climate: sea level in Venice, tropical storms in Australia, Amazon discharge rates

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

It’s been claimed time and again that solar activity cycles for the most part can be neglected climatically. They hardly have any impact. Therefore it is all the more amazing when almost every month a new scientific study comes out that documents the exact opposite.

One example comes from November 2016 when the Geophysical Research Letters published a paper by Adrián Martínez-Asensio et al on the impact of solar activity on sea level. The scientists documented that the autumn sea level extreme in Venice and Triest are in fact controlled by the 11-year solar cycle.

In the wintertime the sun’s impact is seen at other coastal locations, namely Marseille, Ceuta, Brest and Newlyn. What follows is the paper’s fascinating abstract:

Decadal variability of European sea level extremes in relation to the solar activity
This study investigates the relationship between decadal changes in solar activity and sea level extremes along the European coasts and derived from tide gauge data. Autumn sea level extremes vary with the 11 year solar cycle at Venice as suggested by previous studies, but a similar link is also found at Trieste. In addition, a solar signal in winter sea level extremes is also found at Venice, Trieste, Marseille, Ceuta, Brest, and Newlyn. The influence of the solar cycle is also evident in the sea level extremes derived from a barotropic model with spatial patterns that are consistent with the correlations obtained at the tide gauges. This agreement indicates that the link to the solar cycle is through modulation of the atmospheric forcing. The only atmospheric regional pattern that showed variability at the 11 year period was the East Atlantic pattern.”

Another example is found in March, 2016. Jordahna Ellan-Ann Haig and Jonathan Nott reconstructed the tropical cyclone history of Australia for the past 1500 years. Here they discovered that the observed variability was mostly controlled by solar activity over decades and centuries. Haig and Nott hope that future tropical storm forecasts can benefit from the important solar factor.

The paper’s abstract follows:

Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity
Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions. The traditional indices (Southern Oscillation Index and various sea surface temperature indices) have fallen short in recent years as seasonal predictors within the Australian region. The short length of these records (i.e., <50 years) has meant that our current knowledge of larger-scale drivers at interdecadal, centennial, and millennial scales is limited. The development of a new tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible. Here we show that in addition to other well-known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.”

Lastly there’s a fairly recent example from South America. Andrés Antico and Maria Tores examined the discharge rate of the Amazon for the last 100 years in an article published in 2015. They discovered that the development is very closely coupled to solar fluctuations. The paper’s abstract follows:

Evidence of a decadal solar signal in the Amazon River: 1903 to 2013
It has been shown that tropical climates can be notably influenced by the decadal solar cycle; however, the relationship between this solar forcing and the tropical Amazon River has been overlooked in previous research. In this study, we reveal evidence of such a link by analyzing a 1903–2013 record of Amazon discharge. We identify a decadal flow cycle that is anticorrelated with the solar activity measured by the decadal sunspot cycle. This relationship persists through time and appears to result from a solar influence on the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The amplitude of the decadal solar signal in flow is apparently modulated by the interdecadal North Atlantic variability. Because Amazonia is an important element of the planetary water cycle, our findings have implications for studies on global change.”

 

Europe Reminded Of Its Power Grid Vulnerability As Brussels Blacks Out!

Much has been written about growing power grid instability in Europe as more and more volatile wind and solar energy have come online over the years.

Earlier today European news outlets reported how Brussels, a major centre of the European Union, plunged into darkness late yesterday evening.

So far it’s not known what’s behind the outage. The New York Post writes that the cause  is a “mystery”, but according to the BBC here that “a spokesperson for Brussels’ power supplier, Sibelga, later told The Sun that the blackout was the result of an electric network distribution problem”.

City gripped by fear

It’s one thing if some rural area blacks out, but quite another when a center of political power like Brussels gets paralyzed and is left totally vulnerable. The UK Mirror wrote of a “security alert” after a “massive blackout” plunged the “entire centre of EU capital into darkness“, adding:

The loss of electricity across the Belgian capital has sparked terror attack fears, although the cause of the outage has not been confirmed.”

Brussels has been the target of terror attacks and is still considered a hotbed of potential terrorists. The Mirror writes that the blackout had Belgian security forces scrambling to boost their manpower at main sites around Brussels.

Volatile wind and sun wreak havoc on grid stability

Although it may turn out that the Brussels blackout problem had little to do with the haphazard supply from wind and solar energies, the outage once again highlights the European power grid’s growing instability the since greater amounts of the volatile energy have been getting fed in.

The following chart, for example, shows just how irregular the supply from wind and sun can be in Belgium’s neighbor, Germany:

German wind and solar power supply compared to German total demand over the past 15 days. Source: Agora.

The upper curve depicts Germany’s total consumption. Keeping the grid stable is becoming an increasingly formidable challenge, and the likelihood of overloads is ever higher. Blackouts like the one in Brussels, and the disruptions they cause, will likely become a part of Europe’s future.

There’s one positive aspect about the blackouts: they could serve to help a bit to alleviate one big problem in Europe. The OE24 here writes:  “In the social media networks, jokes were made about a possible boost in the birthrate in 9 months.”

Strangely, Germany’s mainstream media is totally absent with the news of the blackout.

 

New Paper: Glacier Melt Rates Were Up To 3 Times Greater, Faster During Early 20th Century


75% Of Total Modern Glacier Melt Occurred Before 1950


“[T]he retreat of the glaciers after about 1925 became rapid.  It was almost entirely during the [pre-1950] twentieth century warming that the Alpine glaciers disappeared from the valley floors up into the mountains.  Similarly great retreats occurred in Scandinavia, Iceland, Greenland, in the Americas, and on high mountains near the equator.”  — H.H. Lamb  Climate, History, and the Modern World (1982), pg. 248


A new scientific paper indicates that the pronounced warming that occurred during the years stretching from the 1920s to the 1940s melted Northern Iceland glaciers much more extensively and at a far more rapid pace than has been observed in recent decades.

During the 1960s to 1980s, glacier melt rates not only decelerated relative to the 1920s to 1940s, the ice actually advanced in some cases due to decades of cooling.   It has only been since about the mid-1990s that glaciers have consistently begun melting again — but with far less alacrity than they did in the first half of the 20th century.

Fernández-Fernández and co-authors (2017) indicate that the Icelandic glaciers they studied melted by more than 1,000 meters (1,062) on average between the late 1800s and 1946.  But from 1947 to 2005, these same glaciers only retreated by an average of 272 meters more.  In other words, about 75% of the total glacier melt production since the end of the Little Ice Age (the late 19th century) occurred prior to the mid-1940s.

Below are some key points and graphs from the paper.


Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017

Summary:

The abrupt climatic transition of the early 20th century and the 25-year warm period 1925–1950 triggered the main retreat and volume loss of these glaciers since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Meanwhile, cooling during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s altered the trend, with advances of the glacier snouts. Stötter et al. (1999) indicate that the coldest period after the LIA was from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s, when temperatures fell to levels equivalent to the warmest recorded in the 19th century. This cooling is the reason given by Caseldine (1983, 1985a, 1985b, 1988) to explain the advance of the Gljúfurárjökull between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s  … Studies of aerial photographs and satellite images show that the glacier snouts have retreated by more than 1300 m on average since the LIA maximum (considered to be AD 1898 in Gljúfurárjökull and AD 1868 in both Western and Eastern Tungnahryggsjökull), with an altitudinal rise of more than 100 m. The retreat accelerated rapidly (15.3 m yr−1) during the first half of the 20th century.  In the second half of the 20th century, the retreat decelerated considerably, reflected in the lowest values around 1985 (5.2 m yr−1) and a trend shift in 1994, with an advance observed in Gljúfurárjökull. … The retreat rate intensified in the period 2000–2005 compared with 1994–2000, but did not reach the rates recorded before 1946.”

Gljúfurárjökull, West Tungnahryggsjökull, and East Tungnahryggsjökull Glaciers:

1. During the period 1898–1946, the snout of Gljúfurárjökull retreated 635 m, almost two-thirds of the total distance from the LIA maximum (1898–1903) to 2005, at an average rate of 13.2 m yr−1.
2. The trend in Western Tungnahryggsjökull during the first half of the 20th century was a more rapid retreat, showing the highest average rates of the whole period (19.5 m yr−1). By 1946, this glacier had retreated almost 90% of the total recorded between the LIA maximum (1868) and 2005.
3. Just as in the glaciers described above, the retreat of the Eastern Tungnahryggsjökull from its LIA position was more intense during the first half of the 20th century, and in 1946 its snout was only 200 m from its current position. … The 2000 aerial photograph shows that an advance of at least 41 m had taken place since 1985. Nevertheless, between 2000 and 2005, the snout retreated 17 m, even more slowly than Western Tungnahryggsjökull. 


No Net Warming In North Iceland Since 1920s-1940s



Similar Or Less North Iceland (Arctic) Sea Ice During 1920s-1950s


Ran et al., 2010


Holocene Icelandic Climate 4-5°C Warmer, Changing 2-3°C Per Century 


Andersen et al., 2004 

“Our results show that the Nordic Seas circulation system is highly sensitive to the large-scale insolation [surface solar radiation] changes as the general Holocene climate development follows closely the Northern Hemisphere insolation. … Century-scale surface current variability for the Holocene is shown to be 1 – 1.5°C for the Vøring Plateau and East Greenland shelf, and 2.5– 3°C on the North Ice-land shelf. … The first cooling [East Greenland Shelf SSTs] from 2400 to 2000 cal years BP was introduced by a 1.5°C temperature drop starting at 3000 cal years BP which culminated in an SST low around 2100 cal years BP. The second cooling occurred around 300 cal years BP and preceded a rapid warming [during the 1700s A.D.], where SSTs rose with more than 1.5°C within 70 years. The third cooling took place in the second half of the last century. Until the last three centuries, SST variability at this site has been 1°C, while SSTs varied with amplitudes of 1.5– 2°C during the last 300 years.”


Not Just Iceland: Global Glacier Melt Rates More Rapid, Pronounced 1920s-1950s


Gregory et al., 2013


Globally, glaciers melted 69% more rapidly from 1921-1960 (12.5 meters/year) than from 1961-2000 (7.4 meters/year).


Leclercq et al., 2014  A data set of worldwide glacier length fluctuations

“The data set contains the glacier length records for 471 [global] glaciers and it covers the period 1535–2011. There are glacier length records from all continents and at almost all latitudes.   For the observed glaciers, the 20th century retreat was strongest in the first half of the 20th century.”
[T]he retreat is strongest in the period 1921–1960 rather than in the last period 1961–2000, with a median retreat rate of 12.5 m yr in 1921–1960 and 7.4 m yr in the period 1961–2000.”

A Significant Non-Correlation Between CO2 Emissions And Glacier Melt


Advocates of the position that humans exert a profound and dangerous influence on the Earth’s temperatures, glacier melt, sea level rise, extreme weather patterns . . . point to the rapid increase in human CO2 emissions (purple trend line) as the condemnable culprit.



But consider that the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emissions was essentially flat and very low (averaging just 1 gigaton of carbon [GtC] per year) from about 1900 to 1945, when most modern glacier recession occurred.  Also consider that explosive growth in human emissions occurred after 1945, when a significant deceleration in glacier melt (and even decades of advancing glaciers) occurred.  This historical evidence would not appear to support the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions drive warming, glacier melt, and sea level rise.

Dutch Expert: With Trump In Office, Now Safe To Expose The Many Myths Of Climate Alarmism

The earth is greening and 16 other comments on climate hysteria

By Simon Rozendaal
(Translation from his article in Netherlands Elsevier’s weekly Magazine, January 21st, 2017, with author’s permission)

In fact vegetation is thriving, figures for wind power are misleading, “sinking” islands are not sinking, safer nuclear energy is in the offing, and more that can be said loudly now that there is a real climate skeptic in the White House.

When Donald Trump was elected as president of the United States of America, the first thing that the Dutch media reported with unconcealed revulsion was that he was a ‘climate skeptic’.

The exact nature of this exotic species may not have been immediately clear to the reader or viewer of the Dutch media, because climate skeptics are consistently being ignored by them. But everyone should understand that it is something awful – even worse than a populist.

In Europe, and certainly in the Netherlands, global warming is seen as a threat, outclassing all other threats, viewed as being even much more dangerous than the rise of Islamic terrorism. One doesn’t need to be a fan of Donald Trump to frown upon this presumption.

Skeptics have been mislabeled

Much of what people daily hear about climate and climate skeptics is demonstrably wrong. The climate adviser to former President Barack Obama, Steven Koonin, tried in 2014 to infuse some nuance into the debate by arguing in The Wall Street Journal that the science is not unambiguous: not all experts believe global warming is caused entirely by man.

Nor is it certain that the current, fairly mild warming will continue unconstrained in the coming decades. What is certain is that the earth is rapidly greening, courtesy of the infamous carbon dioxide (CO2). And that’s just one of the many comments one could make on climate hysteria.

Ice melting everywhere, but not around Antarctica

Sea ice around Antarctica is growing by about 1.5 percent per decade. Even the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the climate panel of the United Nations), which hardly ever shies away from a little exaggeration – confirms this in its reports.

The most likely explanation – presented by Richard Bintanja of the Netherlands Royal Met Office (KNMI) – is that the melting of the ice caps on the main land of Antarctica produces a layer of fresh water on the surrounding seawater. According to the laws of physics fresh water freezes more quickly than seawater. Therefore, we sprinkle salt on our roads in winter. Thus, warming may lead to more ice. If this theory is correct, this phenomenon should disappear over thirty years, so that the sea ice would melt at the Antarctic as well.

The Earth isn’t out of whack

> The land area of the Marshall Islands – a chain of volcanic atolls in the Pacific Ocean – is not sinking, but rising. The sea level rise is offset by the washing ashore of sand.

> The rate at which the concentration of CO2 increases in the atmosphere, has slowed down since 2000. Presumably, as has been published in Nature Communications a few months ago, because plants absorb more carbon dioxide from the air.

> The same magazine also recently stated that the carbon stored in peat and bogs, is contained more firmly than previously thought. The probability that global warming will reach a tipping point because this carbon is released from the peat and swamp methane (which causes a 28 times stronger greenhouse effect than CO2) is small.

10 the cost to put man on the moon for 0.17 Celsius

Critics claim that the Netherlands Energy Agreement [comparable with the Energiewende in Germany], which aims at a share of 16 percent renewable energy by 2023, will cost 100 billion euros — more than a couple of major projects together, such as the Delta Works, the Betuwe railway, the tunnel under the Green Heartland and the acquisition of JSF fighter plane.

The annual costs of the international climate agreement, concluded in Paris last year, is estimated to be between $ 1,000 and $ 2,000 billion. In comparison: the man-on-the-moon-program cost in today’s value approximately $100 billion. On the Manhattan Project, which produced the American atomic bomb, 24 billion was spent (adjusted for inflation).

That means that international climate policy costs each year ten times more than the man-on-the-moon-program and the development of the atomic bomb together. If climate policy intentions come true, the result will be only a net 0.17 degrees less warming by 2050, as has been calculated by the Danish (skeptical) environmentalist Bjørn Lomborg, founder of the think tank ‘Copenhagen Consensus Center’.

This enormous expenditure will not only affect the wallets of citizens, but also the environment. After all, economic growth in the second half of the twentieth century, did not only produce more disposable income for many, but also generated the money to tackle the pollution of forty years ago.

Geed news: the earth 14% greener than 1980

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm (parts per million) in 1800 to over 400 now. In percentage terms this rise looks less scary: from 0.028 to 0.04 percent of the total atmosphere.

This increase does not only have negative consequences. To the contrary, plants convert sunlight using CO2 into carbohydrates which become part of their mass. For them, carbon dioxide is a yearned-for fertilizer. The increase in carbon dioxide has greened the earth, said Ranga Myneni of Boston University in a lecture in 2011. On the basis of satellite images he concluded that the earth had become 14 percent greener over the past thirty years. The increase manifests itself everywhere, even in arid regions such as the Sahel.

Myneni’s paper appeared in April last year in Nature Climate Change. 32 researchers from 24 international institutions had participated in the exercise. In 2011 Myneni still believed that the half of the increase in plant growth could be attributed to CO2.

Currently, he estimates that this figure should be 70 percent. One of his co-authors, Zaichun Zhu from Beijing University, points out that a green continent of the size of two times the U.S. has been added to the earth because of CO2 fertilization.

Bonus of warming outweighs the negative factors

The Dutch should know better than anybody else that plants love CO2. Since 2005 the Shell refinery in Pernis (near Rotterdam) supplies carbon dioxide to greenhouses in South Holland through pipelines. Thus, hundreds of Dutch growers can achieve higher yields.

The Swedish Nobel Prize winner for chemistry, Svante Arrhenius, who more than a century ago was the first in the world who presented the theory of global warming, was also aware that an increase in CO2 would have beneficial effects.

In his book ‘Worlds in the Making’ (1908) he predicted that the earth would warm up and that agricultural yields would rise. As the discoverer of the greenhouse effect, this global greening was more important to him than global warming. He might haven been surprised to learn that today the reverse is the case. In fact, the positive effects haven been skillfully swept under the carpet.

Climate skeptics are being ignored, vilified and badgered by their universities

William Happer (77) is emeritus professor of physics at Princeton University (USA). He was dismissed in 1993 from the US Energy Department as Vice President Al Gore did not like his critical views. Greenpeace is conducting an ongoing slander campaign against Happer on the Internet.

Judith Curry (63), former professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology (USA), believes that there is some man-made global warming, but in her view the role of nature is dominant. A few weeks ago she resigned, partly because there is too much ‘insanity’ and ‘alarmism’ in climate science.

The Swedish Professor Lennart Bengtsson (81) was director of the European ECMWF weather bureau and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. In 2014 he joined the advisory council of skeptical Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). He became the target of an fierce orchestrated campaign of mud-slinging, and so he felt forced to withdraw from the council within two weeks.

A study by Roger Pielke Jr. (48), professor at the University of Colorado (USA), showed that the number of storms and hurricanes has not increased. Subsequently, Pielke – who believes that humans contribute to global warming – was so vilified that he has chosen a different field of research.

Trump: ‘Sometimes it gets warmer, sometimes cooler.’

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, is called a climate skeptic (in The New York Times even a ‘climate denier’). He has appointed several people in his cabinet, who are known to be climate skeptics.

He wants step out of the Paris’ climate agreement as soon as possible and said: ‘Sometimes it gets a little warmer, sometimes cooler.’ That is called weather. It has often been alleged that Trump said that man-made global warming was a Chinese fabrication. But it is ignored that he emphatically said that this was meant as a joke.

However, he did say: ‘I think climate change is just an expensive, very expensive way to raise more taxes.’

Many journalists are not objective about climate

Alan Rusbridger, former editor of the British newspaper The Guardian, said recently in an interview with NRC Handelsblad [a Dutch daily] that his newspaper had decided in 2014 to take action against climate change. The newspaper was campaigning against oil companies under the motto: ‘Keep it in the ground.’

Rusbridger, who is now at the University of Oxford, admits that his newspaper thereby clearly exceeded all boundaries of objectivity and independence, but in this case the goal justifies the means.

Jelmer Mommers, reporter on climate and energy for the internet newspaper ‘Correspondent’, says and writes repeatedly that objective reporting like the ‘old media’ is not a priority for him. With his articles he wants to contribute to the fight against global warming.

Henk Hagoort, until recently head of the Dutch Public Broadcasting Corporation, has admitted several times that he does not want objective reporting on climate. He thinks that the television network should encourage Dutch politicians to take urgent action against climate change. During a radio discussion Hagoort stated he refused to make programs that questioned the existence of a climate problem.

The many hidden costs of offshore wind

Offshore wind technology is progressing rapidly. For instance, Shell believes it can build wind farms that are profitable at 5.45 cents per kilowatt hour. Four years ago that figure was still 17 cents. Good news, partly because offshore wind blows twice as often and twice as hard. And partly because the learning curve leads to more efficient production.

And thus ‘only’ 300 million subsidy has to be spent on wind farms, cheers Minister Henk Kamp (minister of economic affairs, Classical Liberals, VVD). But it should be noted that, ultimately, the real price of major projects is often twice as high than the budgeted one. Also, the low price of offshore wind power is still well above the market price, which is now just over 3 cents, and will fall further below 2 cents according to experts.

The integration of wind power also requires additional investment. For example, the high-voltage network has to be improved and strengthened earlier than planned. Backup must be secured by gas plants that can quickly respond to rising demand when the wind is not blowing. Storage is required in case the wind blows, but there is no demand. The cost of all this is not attributed to wind, but ‘socialized’, i.e. passed on to the consumer.

Producers and government hold out false hopes of low electricity prices of wind power. But the reality in Denmark and Germany proves to be different, since electricity prices in these countries are among the highest in the world. It is nice that prices for wind power have fallen so rapidly, but in the mean time citizens will be facing rising energy bills by up to thousands of euros per year.

It’s like a salesman who tries to palm off a cooking-plate on you, a little bit more expensive, but very fashionable. Just before you leave the store, the friendly smiling man tells you: ‘You do realize, however, that you need to purchase a new set of cookware for this wonderful cooker?’ Oops! And just when you are about to leave the shop, he adds: ‘It is also advisable to buy a new extractor … indeed even a new kitchen.”

Fossil fuels are more subsidized than wind power

Mark Rutte (Netherlands Prime Minister, Classical Liberals, VVD) said in 2010 during the election campaign: ‘Wind turbines are not running on wind, but on subsidies.’ Proponents of wind are embarrassed by these comments. And so they reciprocate with the statement that fossil fuels are even more heavily subsidized.

In a sense this is true. But it is like comparing apples with oranges. In countries such as Venezuela, Indonesia and Mexico, poor people are being subsidized so that they can buy petrol.

In Western countries, the generation cost of electricity amounts to a few cents per kilowatt hour. However, in addition to all kinds of taxes and surcharges, the citizen has to pay 20 cents. These surcharges are partly explainable (transmission and distribution), but they also are in reality simple taxation. To promote the interests of national industry in international competition, these are excluded from these disguised taxes. Companies pay half the price for power than consumers.

It’s sloppy reasoning to compare these two forms of ‘subsidy’ with the subsidies to wind turbines, solar cells and electric cars, which are currently not (and maybe never) competitive without subsidies.

Back to prehistory: chop down trees. Green!

Most of the ‘green’ electricity generated in the Netherlands, does not come from wind turbines or solar cells, but from coal plants. In these plants so-called ‘biomass’ is mixed with coal. Wood pellets, the size of a suppository, constitute the major form of biomass.

Take the Amer-9-coal power plant in Geertruidenberg. It is even considering burning more wood pellets than coal. To that end, trees are being chopped and turned into wood pellets in the southern United States. Subsequently they are being transported in containers by ocean liners to Rotterdam and then by barges to Geertruidenberg via the Bergsche Maas.

The owner of the coal power plant, the German energy company RWE, will receive an estimated yearly subsidy of 1 billion euros. All this to achieve the renewable energy objectives of the Netherlands Energy Agreement.

This illustrates just how misguided energy policy has become under the influence of climate hysteria. Thus, the export of timber from the United States to the European Union has quadrupled in recent years. Wood – traditionally fuel of primitive societies – is back in Europe.

Today there are more polar bears than ever before

The polar bear is the favorite poster child of the melting of Arctic ice, as predicted by climate activist and former vice president Al Gore. He stated in 2009 that the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer of 2013. This would imply that the polar bear – which lives around the North Pole – would gradually become extinct.

The truth is that polar bears are doing fine. Of course, the bears suffer from melting sea ice and they have partly moved to more populated areas in Alaska and Canada to find food. But there are more polar bears than before. In 1966 there were only 10,000, now more than 25,000. According to the Canadian zoologist Susan Crockford, it is because the hunting of polar bears is better restricted than before. So hunting was a bigger problem than global warming.

Better nuclear energy is in the offing

Nuclear power is already safe and clean. Of all energy the atom is also the most energy intensive: a wheelbarrow uranium can generate as much electricity as an entire battery of wind farms in the North Sea. The problem is that so much misinformation has been disseminated that many people do not realize that although the nuclear energy does represent certain risks, it still has a very good safety record, despite Harrisburg, Chernobyl and Fukushima.

The good news is that there are new types in the offing (the thorium and the molten salt reactor) that are even safer. Even the environmental movement, traditionally a fierce opponent of nuclear energy, has to admit that it is not easy to come up with objections to the new nuclear power. The problem is that it will take another twenty years before various options become available.

Ideal transition fuel

Natural gas (and shale gas because that is the same substance: methane) produces 50% less CO2-emission than coal. So replacing oil and coal with natural gas is a good option to achieve reduction of CO2-emissions. Yet, in his recent Energy Agenda minister Henk Kamp (VVD) announces that new homes will not be connected to the gas grid and that existing homes will become gas free. All homes must be gas-free in 2050.

This is a bizarre decision. Because of its low CO2 emissions, easy and wide availability and relatively low price, natural gas is the ideal transition fuel to bridge the period until 2050 and even 2100, when alternative energy options (socially acceptable nuclear power, more efficient solar cells) will probably be competing without subsidy with cheap coal power.

How shale gas was thwarted

Shale gas has boosted the U.S. economy and made a major contribution to the decline of American CO2 emissions since 2007. In ‘Between pride and hysteria’ (2015), energy journalist Remco de Boer explained why shale gas did not succeed in the Netherlands. Some environmental activists were looking for a new issue, people living near drilling sites feared value losses of their homes, politicians and administrators had weak knees. De Boer on the ability of citizens to influence policy: ‘Three people with a banner and an alarming message in front of the town hall, attended by the local newspaper, and you have already made a lot of progress.’

Pinstripe activism versus multinationals

Climate activism is no longer confined to public demonstrations. They go to court (as the Dutch action group Urgenda did in 2015) or the stock market, such as the Dutch ‘Follow This’ (with 1,800 members and 6 million shares) and the British ‘Share Action’-groups. They are particularly targeting Shell.

The emergence of pinstripe activists as Mark van Baal (founder of ‘Follow This’) seems to have success. Shell, Unilever and pension fund ABP, are increasingly posing as green and sustainable businesses.

By some this is seen as an argument that wind and solar energy represent the future. But that’s nonsense. Earlier Shell has invested in nuclear energy, but stepped out of it again. Ditto for solar cells. Shell has invested in windmills and bio alcohol. It is putting bets on several horses and watching how the markets (read: subsidies) will develop.

It is above all green window-dressing with which multinationals adorn themselves. At a climate conference it was suggested that CEO Paul Polman of Unilever should have a chat with president Trump about sustainability. Yet, Unilever manufactured margarine with trans-fatty acids, which has caused many people to die prematurely. With its production of palm oil in Southeast Asia, Unilever has since contributed to the extinction of the orangutan. In an interview Polman advised people not to shower for too long, and in having done so, his company is now suddenly on record as being sustainable.

Relationship between CO2 and climate is not one-to-one

Even when our ancestors had no cars, there was climate change. CO2 is only one of many factors that drive the climate. This is evident from the graph that shows the relationship between CO2 and temperature since 1900.

The rise of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere shows a relatively straight line, but the temperature varies. From 1900 to 1940 it increased, between 1940 and 1970 it slightly declined, between 1970 and 1998 the temperature rose again, but since 1998 it seems to have stabilized, although alarmists try to ignore, deny or qualify this (‘at sea, the warming continues’, so they say).

When the temperature in 2015 and 2016 reached new highs – partly due to a strong El Niño, and a spike in periodically oscillating ocean currents – it was said that the warming was back again.

Now that El Niño is over (late 2016), the global temperature has dropped again and it is generally expected that 2017 will not break any records. All in all, it seems that global warming pause or hiatus has lasted now almost twenty years.

Conclusion

Keep a cool head – there is time to think.

The earth has indisputably warmed up. With the caveat that this process has been going on for nearly 20,000 years, since the last ice age. It accelerated since the Little Ice Age – the period from 1500 to 1800 – when Hendrick Avercamp and other masters of the Low Lands painted their famous winter scenes.

The human race had no impact on the alternation of ice ages and warm periods in the geological past. These processes were the result of the position of the Earth’s axis and oscillations in the orbit in which the Earth moves around the sun. Nor had our ancestors anything to do with the warming over the last few thousand years.

The period starting with 1900 is a different story. Then the warming was undoubtedly reinforced by the burning of fossil fuels. Almost everyone agrees on that. — even climate skeptics. It is not true that they deny the existence of global warming and the fact that man contributes to it.

The debate is about the share of man in global warming. The IPCC, the alarmist prone climate panel of the United Nations, concluded in a recent report: ‘It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in the surface temperature between 1951 and 2010 has been caused by man’. In other words, maybe almost half of the current warming was not caused by us.

The IPCC itself indicates that the science is not yet settled. Climate change is not black and white. Between ‘climate change is a fairytale disseminated by the Chinese’ and ‘the science is settled, leave those fossil fuels in the ground’, there are fifty shades of gray. Consequently, there is no justification for the current hysteria, whereby any kind of weather phenomenon is framed as evidence that the climate is upset and politicians of left and right, activists groups, multinationals and even generals, pretend that climate is world problem number 1, and so suggest that we could control weather with higher taxes.

Of course, ultimately we need to switch to non-fossil fuels. Yet we still have a lot of time to do so. For the moment it seems that the earth is more robust than the alarmists believe. For almost twenty years we are experiencing mild warming and CO2 appears to have a beneficial, greening effect.

There are plenty of reasons telling us that keeping a cool head is the reasonable thing to do.
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Simon Rozendaal is a chemist (honorary member of the Royal Dutch Society of Chemists, KNCV), and has been writing on science for over forty years, first for NRC Handelsblad and for Elsevier, the leading Dutch weekly news magazine, for thirty years now.

 

Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be “Worst/Costliest” In 12 Years!

Ocala, FL (PRWEB) Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) veteran meteorologist David Dilley says in his early forecast that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be stronger than last year – with the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls.

It will also be the most dangerous since the 2005 season, which saw 5 hurricane landfalls and 2 tropical storms.

GWO has issued the most accurate preseason predictions of any organization the past 8 years, including last years’ prediction that the “Atlantic Basin” (which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) – would enter a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle in 2016.

David Dilley, Senior Meteorologist for Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) – correctly predicted months in advance that GWO’s prediction zones for the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s East Coast northward to North Carolina – would experience hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions in 2016, with multiple strikes likely (see GWO’s 2016 hot-spot predictions graphic).

Here is the GWO’s prediction from last year.

As it turned out – 5 named storms made United States landfalls with Hurricane Hermine making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the Eastern Upper Gulf (see Hot Spots graphic). But more importantly was Hurricane Matthew – a major hurricane that moved north across Haiti and the Western Bahama’s – then hugged the coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina. 1,739 people died from hurricanes in 2016, most of which were from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The last time the death toll was that high was in 2005 when nearly 4,000 people were killed by hurricanes.

The official hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends December 1. The Atlantic Basin on average has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. As predicted by GWO, the 2016 hurricane season was more dangerous and costlier than average. The official season (minus Hurricane Alex in January) – had 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – and the United States experienced much above normal activity with 5 out of the 14 named storms making landfall in GWO’s predicted Hot Spots, 2 of which were hurricanes (Mathew and Hermine).

2017 prediction

GWO’s Climate Pulse Hurricane Model indicates that 2017 will once again be influenced by a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle – with very conducive conditions for hurricane development due to the lack of an El Niño, or La Niña conditions. In addition ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin (red and orange in the graphic), and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This warmer ocean water will be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening close to the United States.

Mr. Dilley, a 40-year veteran, also expects the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will be weaker this summer – thus allowing more named storms to maintain strength – or strengthen as they move from east to west across the Atlantic toward the United States.

He believes the upcoming 2017 hurricane season will be stronger than last year, and it will be the most dangerous and costliest in 12 years for the United States.

The upcoming season will have 16 named storms (14 last year), 8 hurricanes (6 last year), and 4 major hurricanes (3 last year). In addition the United States will have the potential for 6 named storms making landfall, the most since the 2005 season that saw 5 hurricanes and 2 tropical storms make landfall.

GWO also expects 3 out of the 6 landfalls will be hurricanes – with 1 or 2 having the potential for being a major impact hurricane. More information is available at GlobalWeatherOscillations.com, or GlobalWeatherCycles.com.

GWO is the only organization that issues detailed predictions two years into the future for 11 United States prediction zones stretching from New England to Texas. GWO’s hot spot zone predictions for the United States have been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006 – with GWO correctly predicting 1 to 3 years in advance – the occurrences of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Matthew and Hermine (2016). Detailed zone and hot spot predictions for the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons can be obtained through GlobalWeatherOscillations.com, or GlobalWeatherCycles.com.

GWO and Senior Meteorologist/Climatologist David Dilley is an expert on climate cycles and climate change. A “free” climate change e-book “Earth’s Natural Climate Pulse” (authored by Mr. Dilley) can be acquired through the Global Weather Oscillations web site.

35 Scientific Papers: Global Sea Levels Were 1 – 2 Meters Higher Than Now For Most Of The Last 7,000 Years


CO2 Concentration Changes Do Not Drive Sea Levels

From about 7000 years ago to 2000 years ago, or from the Mid- to Late-Holocene, atmospheric CO2 concentrations varied between only about 260 and 270 parts per million, or ppm.  Such low CO2 concentrations are believed to be “safe” for the planet, as they are significantly lower than today’s levels, which have eclipsed 400 ppm in recent years.  These high CO2 concentrations are believed to cause dangerous warming, rapid glacier melt, and catastrophic sea level rise.
And yet, despite the surge in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 since the 20th century began, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of less than 7 inches (17 cm) per century.   A new paper even suggests the global trend is better represented as closer to 1.3 mm/yr, or about 5 inches per century:
McAneney et al., 2017     “Global averaged sea-level rise is estimated at about 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year−1 (Rhein et al. 2013), however, this global average rise ignores any local land movements. Church et al. (2006) and J. A. Church (2016; personal communication) suggest a long-term average rate of relative (ocean relative to land) sea-level rise of 1.3 mm year.”
According to Wenzel and Schröter (2014), the acceleration rate for the sea level rise trend since 1900 has been just +0.0042 mm/yr, which is acknowledged by the authors to be “not significant” and well within the range of uncertainty (+ or – 0.0092 mm/yr) to put the overall 20th/21st century sea level rise acceleration rate at zero.
Further complicating the paradigm that contends changes in CO2 concentrations drive sea levels is the fact that ice core evidence affirms CO2 levels remained remarkably constant (fluctuating around 255 to 260 ppm) during the same period that there was an explosively fast rate of sea level rise — between 1 and 2 meters per century (about 10 times today’s rates) — between 12,000 to 8,000 years ago.    Sea levels rose by ~60 meters during those 4,000 years while CO2 levels effectively remained constant.
And casting even more doubt on the assertion that variations in CO2 drive sea level rise is the fact that there is robust paleoclimate evidence to suggest that today’s mean sea levels as well as today’s sea level rise rates are both relatively low (from a historical standpoint) and also well within the range of natural variability.  Nothing unusual is happening to sea levels today.  For even though we have evidence that modern CO2 concentrations (~405 ppm) are historically high relative to the last 10,000 years, we also possess a growing body of evidence that modern sea levels are still about 1 to 2 meters lower than they have been for most of the last 7,000 years.
The fundamental problem for the CO2-rise-causes-sea-level-rise paradigm, then, is that rising CO2 concentrations have not been correlated with rising sea levels for nearly all of the last 12,000 years.  In fact, the opposite has been observed during the last 2,000 years, or during the Late Holocene: CO2 levels have risen (gradually, then rapidly) while sea levels have fallen overall, with recent changes so modest (inches per century) that they do not override the overall trend).   In the 8,000 years before that, sea levels rose rapidly while CO2 concentrations remained flat.  Simply put, the supposed anthropogenic “signal” in sea level rise trends has largely gone undetected — a point that has been affirmed by more and more scientists.
Listed below are a collection of 35 scientific papers published since 2014 that indicate sea levels were, on average, about 1 to 2 meters higher than they are now throughout the Mid-Holocene (7,000-2,000 years ago) and even into the last millennium, with lower-than-now sea levels largely confined to the Little Ice Age period (~1300 to 1900 AD).  Links to the papers are embedded in the authors’ names and the regional locations for mean sea level are notated.

Dechnik et al., 2017 (Tropical Western Pacific)

[I]t is generally accepted that relative sea level reached a maximum of 1–1.5 m above present mean sea level (pmsl) by ~7 ka [7,000 years ago] (Lewis et al., 2013)

Zondervan, 2016    (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)

Preserved fossil coral heads as indicators of Holocene high sea level on One Tree Island [GBR, Australia] … Complete in-situ fossil coral heads have been found on beach rock of One Tree Island, a small cay in the Capricorn Group on the Great Barrier Reef. Measurements against the present low-tide mark provide a [Holocene] high stand of at least +2.85 m [above present sea levels], which can be determined in great accuracy compared to other common paleo sea-level record types like mangrove facies. The sea level recorded here is higher than most recent findings, but supports predictions by isostatic adjustment models. … Although the late Holocene high stand has been debated in the past (e.g. Belperio 1979, Thom et al. 1968), more evidence now supports a sea level high stand of at least + 1- 2 m relative to present sea levels (Baker & Haworth 1997, 2000, Collins et al. 2006, Larcombe et al. 1995, Lewis et al. 2008, Sloss et al. 2007).

Prieto et al., 2016  (Argentina, Uruguay)

Analysis of the RSL [relative sea level] database revealed that the RSL [relative sea level] rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m [above present] between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present] … This RSL [relative sea level] curve was re-plotted by Gyllencreutz et al. (2010) using the same index points and qualitative approach but using the calibrated ages. It shows rising sea-levels following the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), reaching a RSL [relative sea level] maximum of +6.5 m above present at c. 6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], followed by a stepped regressive trend towards the present.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-argentina-uruguay-prieto-16


Hodgson et al., 2016  (East Antarctica)

Rapid early Holocene sea-level rise in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica  The field data show rapid increases in rates of relative sea level rise of 12–48 mm/yr [1.2 to 4.8 meters per century] between 10,473 (or 9678) and 9411 cal yr BP in the Vestfold Hills and of 8.8 mm/yr between 8882 and 8563 cal yr BP in the Larsemann Hills. … The geological data imply a regional RSL [relative sea level] high stand of c. 8 m [above present levels], which persisted between 9411 cal yr BP and 7564 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], and was followed by a period when deglacial sea-level rise was almost exactly cancelled out by local rebound.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-antarctica-hodgson-16


Dura et al., 2016  (Vancouver)

In northern and western Sumatra, GIA models predict high rates (>5 mm/year) of RSL [relative sea level] rise from 12 to 7 ka [12000 to 7000 years ago], followed by slowing rates of rise (<1 mm/year) to an RSL [relative sea level] highstand of <1 m (northern Sumatra) and 3 m (western Sumatra) between 6 and 3 ka [6,000-3,000 years ago], and then gradual (<1 mm/ year) RSL fall until present.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-vancouver-dura-16


Spotorno-Oliveira et al., 2016  (Brazil)

At ~7000 cal. years BP the sea level in the bay was approximately 4 m below the present sea level and the upper subtidal benthic community was characterised by fruticose corallines on coarse soft substrate, composed mainly of quartz grains from continental runoff input. The transgressing sea rapidly rose until reaching the ~ +4 m highstand [above present] level around 5000 years BP.

Lee et al., 2016  (Southeast Australia)

The configuration suggests surface inundation of the upper sediments by marine water during the mid-Holocene (c. 2–8 kyr BP), when sea level was 1–2 m above today’s level.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-se-australia-lee-16


Yokoyama et al., 2016  (Japan)

The Holocene-high-stand (HHS) inferred from oyster fossils (Saccostrea echinata and Saccostrea malaboensis) is 2.7 m [above present sea level] at ca. 3500 years ago, after which sea level gradually fell to present level.

May et al., 2016  (Western Australia)

Beach ridge evolution over a millennial time scale is also indicated by the landward rise of the sequence possibly corresponding to the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of WA [Western Australia] of at least 1-2 m above present mean sea level.

Mann et al., 2016  (Indonesia)

Radiometrically calibrated ages from emergent fossil microatolls on Pulau Panambungan indicate a relative sea-level highstand not exceeding 0.5 m above present at ca. 5600 cal. yr BP [calendar years before present].

Clement et al., 2016   (New Zealand)

In North Island locations the early-Holocene sea-level highstand was quite pronounced, with RSL [relative sea level] up to 2.75 m higher than present. In the South Island the onset of highstand conditions was later, with the first attainment of PMSL being between 7000–6400 cal yr BP. In the mid-Holocene the northern North Island experienced the largest sea-level highstand, with RSL up to 3.00 m higher than present.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-new-zealand-clement-16


Long et al., 2016  (Scotland)

RSL [relative sea level] data from Loch Eriboll and the Wick River Valley show that RSL [relative sea level] was <1 m above present for several thousand years during the mid and late Holocene before it fell to present.

Chiba et al., 2016  (Japan)

Highlights: We reconstruct Holocene paleoenvironmental changes and sea levels by diatom analysis.  Average rates of sea-level rise and fall are estimated during the Holocene.  Relative sea level during Holocene highstand reached 1.9 m [higher than today] during 6400–6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present].  The timing of this sea-level rise is at least 1000 years earlier in the Lake Inba area by Holocene uplift than previous studies.  The decline of sea-level after 4000 cal yr BP may correspond to the end of melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Leonard et al., 2016  (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)

Holocene sea level instability in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia Three emergent subfossil reef flats from the inshore Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, were used to reconstruct relative sea level (RSL). Forty-two high-precision uranium–thorium (U–Th) dates obtained from coral microatolls and coral colonies (2σ age errors from ±8 to 37 yr) in conjunction with elevation surveys provide evidence in support of a nonlinear RSL regression throughout the Holocene. RSL [relative sea level] was at least 0.75 m above present from ~6500 to 5500 yr before present (yr BP; where “present” is 1950). Following this highstand, two sites indicated a coeval lowering of RSL of at least 0.4 m from 5500 to 5300 yr BP which was maintained for ~200 yr. After the lowstand, RSL returned to higher levels before a 2000-yr hiatus in reef flat corals after 4600 yr BP at all three sites. A second possible RSL lowering event of ~0.3 m from ~2800 to 1600 yr BP was detected before RSL stabilised ~0.2 m above present levels by 900 yr BP. While the mechanism of the RSL instability is still uncertain, the alignment with previously reported RSL oscillations, rapid global climate changes and mid-Holocene reef “turn-off” on the GBR are discussed.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-australia-gbr-leonard-16


Sander et al., 2016  (Denmark)

The data show a period of RSL [relative sea level] highstand at c. 2.2 m above present MSL [mean sea level] between c. 5.0 and 4.0 ka BP [5,000 to 4,000 years before present].  After that, RSL drops by c. 1.3 m between c. 4.0 and 3.4 ka BP to an elevation roughly 1 m above present MSL. Since then, RSL has been falling at more or less even rates. … Yu et al. (2007) present evidence for a sea-level ‘jump’ of several meters occurring at 7.6 ka bp [7600 years before present] in SE Sweden, and data suggesting RSL changes with a similar timing and magnitude were obtained for a field site in the southern Gulf of Finland (Rosentau et al., 2013). The suddenness of the RSL change has been attributed to the collapse of parts of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (Blanchon and Shaw, 1995; Carlson et al., 2007), though the global indications and the potential triggers of such a eustatic event remain inconclusive (Törnqvist and Hijma, 2012).

Bradley et al., 2016  (China)

In general, the data indicate a marked slowdown between 7 and 8 kyr BP, with sea level rising steadily to form a highstand of ~2-4 m [above present sea level] between 6 and 4 kyr BP [6000 and 4000 years before present]. This is followed by a steady fall, reaching present day levels by ~1 kyr BP.

holocene-cooling-sea-level-china-bradley-16


Accordi and Carbone, 2016  (Africa)

Then, the skeletal carbonate storage on the shelf reached its maximum 5 to 4 ka BP [5000 to 4000 years before present] (Ramsay, 1995) during a highstand about 3.5 m above the present sea level, when shallow marine accommodation space was greater than at present. … A detailed sea level curve of the last 9 ka BP is reported for the Southern African coastline by Ramsay (1995), who indicates a sea level similar to that of the present (at about 6.5 ka). Ramsay also indicates successive, frequent oscillations below and above the present sea level, between a maximum of +3.5 and a minimum of -2 m. Sea level positive pulses since 7 ka BP are also documented in Siesser (1974), Jaritz et al. (1977) and Norstrom et al. (2012) for the Mozambique coast. Along the Kenyan coast, a sea level stand above the present one during the mid-Holocene is documented in many places along the coast by various authors (Hori, 1970; Toyah et al., 1973; Åse, 1981, 1987; Oosterom, 1988), where the sea level might have reached +6 m above the Kenyan Datum between 2 and 3 ka BP [2000 and 3000 years before present].

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Hansen et al., 2016  (Denmark)

Continuous record of Holocene sea-level changes … (4900 years BP to present). … The curve reveals eight centennial sea-level oscillations of 0.5-1.1 m superimposed on the general trend of the RSL [relative sea level] curve [relative sea levels ~1.5 m higher than present from 1400 to 1000 years ago].

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Macreadie et al., 2015  (Austalia, Eastern)

[R]esults from other studies … suggest that high-stand, at perhaps 2 m above present msl [mean sea level] was achieved as early as 7000 radiocarbon years BP [before present] (7800 cal. years BP) and that sea-level has exceeded the present value for much of the mid- to late-Holocene [~7000 to ~1000 years ago].

Lewis et al., 2015  (Australia, Northeastern)

Thick (> 10 cm) fossil oyster visors above the equivalent modern growth suggest higher relative sea-levels in the past (i.e. > 1200 cal. yr BP [prior to 1,200 years before present]). … [D]ata show a Holocene sea-level highstand of 1–2 m higher than present which extended from ca. 7500 to 2000 yr ago (Woodroffe, 2003; Sloss et al., 2007; Lewis et al., 2013). The hydro-isostatic adjustment is thought to account for these 1–2 m sea-level changes [falling] to present levels over the past 2000 yr (Lambeck and Nakada, 1990; Lambeck, 2002). … [R]eliable SLI data such as coral pavements and tubeworms from Western Australia suggest that relative sea-level was 0.86 m and 0.80 m above present at 1060 ± 10 and 1110 ± 170 cal. yr BP [~1100 calendar years before present], respectively (Baker et al., 2005; Collins et al., 2006).

Lokier et al., 2015  (Persian Gulf)

Late Quaternary reflooding of the Persian Gulf climaxed with the mid-Holocene highstand previously variously dated between 6 and 3.4 ka. Examination of the stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental context of a mid-Holocene whale beaching allows us to accurately constrain the timing of the transgressive, highstand and regressive phases of the mid- to late Holocene sea-level highstand in the Persian Gulf.  Mid-Holocene transgression of the Gulf surpassed today’s sea level by 7100–6890 cal yr BP, attaining a highstand of > 1 m above current sea level shortly after 5290–4570 cal yr BP before falling back to current levels by 1440–1170 cal yr BP.  These new ages refine previously reported timings for the mid- to late Holocene sea-level highstand published for other regions. By so doing, they allow us to constrain the timing of this correlatable global eustatic event more accurately.


Harris et al., 2015   (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)

This hiatus in sediment infill coincides with a sea-level fall of 1–1.3 m during the late Holocene (ca. 2000 cal. yr B.P.), which would have caused the turn-off of highly productive live coral growth on the reef flats currently dominated by less productive rubble and algal flats, resulting in a reduced sediment input to back-reef environments and the cessation in sand apron accretion. Given that relative sea-level variations of 1 m were common throughout the Holocene, we suggest that this mode of sand apron development and carbonate production is applicable to most reef systems.
Microatoll death was most likely caused by a fall in sea level that stranded the microatolls on the reef flat due to their location in open-water unmoated environments. This suggests that paleo–sea level between 3900 and 2200 cal. yr B.P. was 1–1.3 m higher than present (based on an offset from MLWS tidal level to fossil microatoll elevation; Fig. 2). This paleo–sealevel elevation is similar to the ranges of 1–1.5 m suggested by Lewis et al. (2013) and Sloss et al. (2007) and data from Moreton Bay in southern Queensland of an elevation of 1.3 m (Leonard et al., 2013).


Hein et al., 2015  (Brazil)

In southern Brazil, falling RSL [relative sea level] following a 2–4 m [above present sea level] highstand at 5 to 6 ka [5,000 to 6,000 years ago] forced coastal progradation. … Relative SL [sea level] along the southern Brazil coast reached a highstand elevation of 1–4 m above MSL [mean sea leve] at ca. 5.8 ka [5800 years ago].

Barnett et al., 2015  (Arctic Norway)

Relative sea-level fell at −0.7 to −0.9 mm yr−1 over the past 3300 years in NW Norway. … Prior to 3000 cal yr BP the marine limiting date represents an important constraint for the late Holocene sea-level trend and yields a minimum RSL [relative sea level] decline of approximately 2.2 m over 3200 years when assuming a linear trend. The maximum possible linear decline constrained by the data is approximately 2.6 m in 2800 years, providing an estimated late Holocene sea-level trend of 0.7 to 0.9 mm yr (shown by the grey shaded region in Fig. 8A).  [Relative sea level was 2.2 to 2.8 m higher ~3,000 years ago in Arctic Norway]


Engel et al., 2015  (Western Australia)

The foredunes overlie upper beach deposits located up to >2 m above the present upper beach level and provide evidence for a higher mid-Holocene RSL [relative sea level]. …  [O]bservations made near Broome by Lessa and Masselink (2006) [indicate] the deposition of backshore deposits up to c. 1.5 m above present MHW [mean high water] between c. 2100–800 cal BP [2100-800 calendar years before present].


Reinink-Smith, 2015  (Kuwait)

[B]ased on bottle characteristics, glass bottles within the debris zonemwere manufactured mostly between 1940 and 1960 (some as early as the 1920s), indicating high tides were more common in the recent past. … The normal tidal cycle affects only a narrow 0.6–0.7 km-wide band parallel to the coast when the prevailing wind (the Shamal) is from the northwest (Gunatilaka, 1986). Within this narrow zone, washed-up glass bottles were manufactured more recently than ~1960 and are not frosted. None of these new [made after 1960] bottles were found near the beach ridges … [A]ssuming the tidal ranges were similar in the middle Holocene, a rough estimate of the MSL [mean sea level] during the middle Holocene highstand is 5.2 m − 1.7 m = +3.5 m above the present MSL [mean sea level]. … The +3.5 m highstand estimate in northeastern Kuwait derived in this study is also higher than the previously reported maximum estimates of +2 to +2.5 m responsible for other Holocene beach ridges in the Arabian Gulf (Gunatilaka, 1986; Lambeck, 1996; Kennett and Kennett, 2007; Jameson and Strohmenger, 2012). Some beach ridges in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are at elevations of 2–4 m above MSL [present mean sea level] as far as 5-15 km inland (Alsharhan and Kendall, 2003).

Rashid et al., 2014  (French Polynesia)

Upon correction for isostatic island subsidence, we find that local relative sea level was at least ~1.5±0.4 m higher than present at ~5,400 years ago.


Strachan et al., 2014  (South Africa)

During the last 7000 years, southern African sea levels have fluctuated by no more than ±3 m. Sea-level curves based on observational data for southern Africa indicate that Holocene highstands occurred at 6000 and again at 4000 cal years BP, followed by a lowstand from 3000 to 2000 cal years B P. The mid-Holocene highstands culminated in a sea-level maximum of approximately 3 m above mean sea level (MSL) from 7300 to 6500 cal years BP [calendar years before present] and of 2 m above MSL at around 4000 cal years BP.  Thereafter, RSL dropped to slightly below the present level between 3500 and 2800 cal years BP Sea-level fluctuations during the late Holocene in southern Africa were relatively small (1-2 m); however, these fluctuations had a major impact on past coastal environments.  Evidence from the west coast suggests that there was a highstand of 0.5 m above MSL from 1500 to 1300 cal years BP [calendar years before present] or possibly earlier (1800 cal years BP), followed by a lowstand (-0.5 m above MSL) from 700 to 400 cal years BP [during the Little Ice Age].


Yamano et al., 2014 (Southwest Pacific Ocean)

Mba Island initially formed around ~ 4500 cal yr B.P. [4500 calendar years before present], when sea level was ~ 1.1 m higher than at present. 


Kench et al., 2014  (Central Pacific Ocean)

[T]he mid-Holocene [sea level] highstand is reported to have peaked at approximately +1.1 m above present and was sustained until approximately 2000 years B.P. [before present] in the Marshall Islands.


Hein et al., 2014  (Brazil)

Along the eastern and southern Brazilian coasts of South America, 6000 years of sea-level fall have preserved late-stage transgressive and sea-level highstand features 1–4 m above present mean sea level and several kilometers landward of modern shorelines.


Bracco et al., 2014  (Uruguay)

Highlights:  We present a sea level change curve for mid Holocene in Uruguay.  Sea level reached 4 m amsl [above present mean sea level] between 6000 and 5500 yr BP [before present].   A rapid sea level fall to about 1 m amsl [above present mean sea level] was inferred for 4700-4300 yr BP.  A further sea level increase to about 3 m amsl [above present mean sea level] was inferred after 4300 yr BP.  After 4300 yr BP there was a constant sea level a decline.


Holocene Sea Levels Rose Much Faster With Stable CO2 Levels


Khan et al., 2017  (Caribbean)

Only Suriname and Guyana [Caribbean] exhibited higher RSL [relative sea level] than present (82% probability), reaching a maximum height of 1 m at 5.2 ka [5,200 years ago]. … Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka [10.9 meters per 1000 years, 1.9 meters per century] in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka [7.4 meters per 1000 years, 0.74 meters per century] in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka [12,000 to 8,000 years ago].

Zecchin et al., 2015 (Mediterranean)

Episodic, rapid sea-level rises on the central Mediterranean shelves after the Last Glacial Maximum: A review … The evidence presented here confirms drowned shorelines documented elsewhere at similar water depths and shows that melt-water pulses have punctuated the post-glacial relative sea-level rise with rates up to 60 mm/yr. [6 meters per century] for a few centuries. 

Boski et al., 2015 (Brazil)

A rapid sea-level rise, at an averaged rate of approximately 6.1 mm/yr [0.6 m per century], occurred between 8300 and 7000 cal. yr BP [8300-7000 calendar years before present]. Since then, the pace of relative sea-level rise slowed and non-eustatic factors, namely terrigenous sediment supply and coastal dynamics, became dominant in the evolution of the estuary.