Because the ENSO has moved back into neutral range during the summer, a modest warming of global temperature can be expected in early 2022. But with a lag of about 8 months, global temperatures will tend to cool off by early summer of next year, 2022, in response to the coming La Niña – should the above ENSO projections come true.
2. Soot filtering out sunlight over North America
Another factor that could act to cool the earth’s surface a bit over the short term are the massive wildfires in California and elsewhere this summer. Satellite images show a sun-blocking haze of smoke spreading over large parts of North America:
July 2021 was significantly too wet, slightly too warm and lacked sunshine. […] In July, an average of about 110 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell nationwide and thus almost 40 percent more precipitation than the average of the reference period 1961 to 1990 (78 l/m²). Compared with the period 1991 to 2020, the increase was nearly 25 percent.”
Summer rains have returned
The DWD complained about summer drought several years in a row. Now the July rains are back. Climate is variable – which is weather. We look at July rains in a graph:
Shown are the individual values (July 2021: 110 mm) and the trend line since 1950, showing little change. Added to this is a 12-year low pass indicating internal variability. The thick line meanders back and forth without a trend in either direction. Using the new reference period (1991-2020), the DWD hides a period of lower precipitation before it, so now “too dry” appears in press releases more often. Not so this year.
No precipitation July trend change at all
There is apparently no trend toward less rain in Germany in July, even with global warming. Anyone drew conclusions based on the below-average values after 2017 is simply confusing weather with climate. We already had the observed similar deviation from the mean in the 1960s to 1980s. It’ll be interesting to see how the short-term media-born fairy tale of less precipitation in the summer in this country will be “corrected” in the coming years.
July 2021 normal using 1991 – 2020 mean
For temperature, July-2021 hit exactly the mean of the current period 1991 to 2020, which is good news. So the DWD also compares it with the old, discarded reference period to justify it was “a bit too warm” on its press release. DWD:
The July 2021 temperature average of 18.3 degrees Celsius (°C) was 1.4 degrees above the value of the internationally valid reference period 1961 to 1990 and at the same time exactly hit the average of the current and warmer period 1991 to 2020. Thus, the month was even cooler and little more summery than June.”
You just have to go back far enough, then you can make up the appropriate statement. Here is the graph:
You can see a warming trend: it is now about 1.5°C warmer in July than it was in the 70s. There is a lot of variability here as well. The unchallenged leader is still the year 2006. So the decadal filtered average (bold) remains at about 18.6°C since 2004, currently we saw 18.3°C. Consequence of the warming thus: Warming, as not to be expected differently.
“State wants to build 500 new wind turbines in the state forest,” was the headline in the Badische Zeitung on July 26 over the decision by Germany’s Baden-Württemberg state government. This decision is the first step by the state coalition government of The Greens and CDU to build 1000 wind turbines in the next legislative period.
The news came only a few days after the flood disaster in North Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate, where it was quite obvious that a lack of flood plains was the main cause of the floods. Now policymakers have decided to destroy even more valuable forest areas and to seal the deforested ground with tens of thousands of tons of concrete.
Permanently disfigured landscape
Each wind turbine means the clear-cutting of 0.35 km2 of forest, lost CO2 and moisture reservoirs, all to be sealed by 3500 tons of concrete each for each turbine. To date, such concrete blocks have never been removed, insurmountable obstacles to deep-rooted trees and natural water control.
Moreover, two other negative impacts have been ignored by the press so far. First, scientific research that shows wind turbines slow down the wind and cause temperature increases locally, two effects that dry out the soil.
Infrasound
Even more serious is the health risk, and it is incomprehensible that in an environmentally and health-conscious country like Germany, medical warnings about infrasound from wind turbines are not discussed in detail, and are even systematically downplayed.
Slipshod health impact assessments
According to the current state of knowledge, the approval of wind turbines is done according to inappropriate regulations and standards, i.e. infrasound is wrongly evaluated. The medical reactions of desperate residents near wind farms, who seek protection from the agonizing sound waves, are dismissed as imaginary illnesses. Some are left with the sole option of abandoning their own homes. Yet, medical experts have been warning for some time about the harmful effects of infrasound on blood vessels and brain functions.
Ideology
Currently, the global temperature increase since 1979 has been about 0.15 °C per decade (see Vahrenholt, Lüning: Unwanted Truths), the world is far from the 4 to 6 °C by 2100 predicted in the first scare stories about climate change. Moreover, according to current science, carbon dioxide is not the main driver of global warming. But scientific technical debate has become secondary today. In the group of the so-called “climate protectors” there is no willingness to question their thesis of man-made climate change.
Under these conditions, it is irresponsible to turn our country, Germany, into an industrial landscape and, moreover, to sacrifice our health and prosperity.
Overriding Ministry of Climate Protection
Just a few days ago, the Green Party has presented its so-called climate protection emergency program, which would grant a climate protection ministry a veto right against all present laws that are not Paris-compliant. Thus, a radical eco-socialist system would be imposed on Germany, with a 2.5% share of global CO2 emissions, in a rush.
A new study suggests the modern (1994-2004) surface temperatures in the South China Sea are colder now than any time in the last 6000 years.
Except for a brief interval ~500 years ago, SSTs have been consistently 2-4°C warmer than today since the middle Holocene in the South China Sea (Zhou et al., 2021).
This is consistent with many other studies in the western Pacific which also show a “decreasing SST trend” since the end of the Little Ice Age (He et al., 2019).
I’ve always thought I was getting enough vitamin D, but now realize I’ve been wrong. I’ll be boosting my daily supplement intake to 4000 IU/day.
Often the media and medical establishment spread disinformation about nutrition, the importance of a healthy, balanced diet and supplements.
Neglect of Vitamin D is a public health crisis, says German professor. Image cropped here.
In an excellent video: Vitamin D “Hope oder Hype”, Prof. Dr. Jörg Spitz looks at the importance of Vitamin D. He concludes that there’s an epidemic of Vitamin D deficiency and that public health officials and institutions are doing nothing about it.
The 90-minute video unfortunately is not available in English and due to time constraints I’m only able to provide you here some of the main takeaways:
Status:
Claims that most people aren’t really lacking vitamin D are false.
You can’t “tank up” on Vitamin in the wintertime by spending time in the sun. It doesn’t work because the sun’s rays at higher latitudes are well below a 45° angle and the needed UVB radiation doesn’t reach the surface.
88% of Germans have vitamin D levels under 30 nanograms per mL, which is far below the target range of 40-60 ng.
Only 6% of German women and 1% of German men supplement their Vitamin D intake.
More and more people, including kids, have become chronically Vitamin D deficient over recent years due to poor nutrition and indoor sedentary lifestyles.
According to a study, only 10% of kids have an adequately high Vitamin D level at the end of the summer, and only 0.9% during the winter! “Catastrophe,” says Spitz.
The problem also exists at the sunny, tropical latitudes – people are indoors the whole day.
Sunscreen and work clothes block out sun’s needed UVB rays.
30,000 Swedish women were monitored over 20 years. The mortality rate was twice as high for women who avoided sun than those who spent lots of time in the sun. “Those who spend time in the sun, live longer.”
Risks
A lack of sun, Spitz says, is as dangerous as smoking.
If you’re below 20 nanograms/milliliter of Vitamin D, your chances of becoming chronically ill are 2 – 3 times greater.
You can’t get the needed Vitamin D through food intake alone. You have to synthesize it with sunlight absorbed by the roughly 2 square meters of skin you were given. Don’t use sunscreen too often.
Sunscreen lotion even gets absorbed by the body, reacts with sunlight and leads to other dubious chemicals in the body.
Obesity leads to reduced Vitamin D levels, as it gets stored in fat.
Almost every chronic disease is linked to Vitamin D, e.g. dementia, Alzheimer, depression and other neurological diseases.
Athletic performance is lower among athletes with Vitamin D deficiency – much higher risk of injury.
Heart attacks, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, etc. are linked to vitamin D deficiencies.
Vitamin D is crucial for all organs; all organs have Vitamin D receptors.
Vitamin D is key against cancer and tumors.
Low levels of Vitamin D linked are to pregnancy diabetes, birth complications, child development issues.
Natural biological processes cannot be replaced by medical practices!
Children’s health will continue to degrade with lower levels of Vitamin D.
Nine life-style factors were determined to be major contributors to heart attacks, each making a person 2.5 times more likely to have a heart attack. Having four of these factors means 40 times greater likelihood.
Only 9% of German adults have succeeded at keeping good body weight, not smoking, regular movement, balanced diet.
Public health officials have failed miserably on sensible prevention.
(53:00) The immune system is highly dependent on Vitamin D. “Supplement, or get sick,” says Spitz
Children with normal Vitamin D levels are 70% less likely to get a cold.
And as a number of experts have pointed out, low Vitamin D levels are associated with the severe cases of COVID-19.
How much Vitamin D?
Vitamin D levels after exposure to sun much lower among elderly:
Recommended supplementation = 4000 IU/day for adults (70kg) – try it for 3 months.
Rule: 1000 UE/day supplement leads to a Vitamin D level rise of about 10 ng (70 kg body weight).
Very difficult to have a Vitamin D level that’s “too high” – so don’t worry about it.
Three ways to boost Vitamin d levels: 1) supplements, 2) 2-3 times weekly tanning salon, 3) 30 mins. in the midday 3-4times/week. Choose whatever works best for you.
Taking Vitamin D is one of the easiest, quickest things you can do to make a huge difference for your health.
Have your doctor check your Vitamin D level and take it from there. If you’re over 30 ng in the late winter, then you’re alright. If you’re under 30, then you can easily get it back up to par with supplements. If you’re under 20 ng, then you have the opportunity to start vastly improving your physical and mental health.
Of course, consult your doctor – who hopefully really understands the importance of Vitamin D.
Power grid expert Herbert Saurugg warns at RiskNet that European authorities continue to ignore danger signals even after another grid disruption occurred in the afternoon of July 24th and left around 2 million people in France, Spain and Portugal briefly without electricity.
It was the second major disruption in the last 7 months.
The root of the problem on July 24th appears to be a firefighting aircraft unloading its cargo directly above an extra-high voltage line, causing a short circuit, during a wildfire.
“This apparently triggered resonance effects, which one minute later led to an overload of the coupling points and to the disconnection of the grid between France and the Iberian Peninsula,” reports Saurugg here. “The Iberian Peninsula was short of energy from around three large power plants, which could not be compensated for in the short term by other power plants. As a result, automated load shedding was triggered, leaving around 2 million people in France, Spain and Portugal without power for up to an hour.”
Swift action in the nick of time kept the blackout from spreading even further. Numerous services like commerce and IT still got disrupted.
Blackouts and power disruptions can occur, but this is already the second time in less than a year an international “grid disconnection” occurred in Europe. This should be viewed as a clear wake-up call, the power grid expert warns.
Saurugg says “signs and warnings have been ignored for years” by Europe and that weather disasters and catastrophes would makes these disasters completely unmanageable in the event of a power grid failure. Entire logistics and supply chains could “fail chaotically across Europe” and even take weeks to restore.
“It is precisely these effects that are massively underestimated,” says Saurugg. “At the same time, we know that around two thirds of the population will be unable to supply themselves adequately after one week at the latest. But the broad-based restart of the supply of vital goods and services (food, medicines, health, etc.) will take much longer.”
Saurugg adds another warning: “A discussion, as is currently the case after the recent severe storms, about who is to blame or who did not warn sufficiently, will then be irrelevant. Therefore, we should not wait any longer, but finally deal seriously with the topic of blackout prevention.”
=================================
Herbert Saurugg is an international blackout and crisis preparedness expert and president of the Austrian Society for Crisis Preparedness (GfKV). As a former professional officer, he has been dealing with the increasing complexity and fragility of vital infrastructures for 10 years and runs an extensive expert blog on the subject.
In his 1975 book The Genesis Strategy, the late climate scientist Dr. Stephen Schneider reviewed contemporary climate modification proposals to reduce the severe 1960s and 1970s droughts, floods, and extreme weather…which were at that time associated with the ongoing global cooling. One proposal was to eliminate the Arctic’s sea ice by having aircraft dump black soot on the ice pack.
In 1974, Schneider reported that the Earth had warmed 0.6°C from 1880 to 1940, then cooled -0.3°C from 1940 to 1970. He suggested the warming could not have been due to human activity, but possibly the ongoing cooling might have been.
By 1975 Schneider had published a book, The Genesis Strategy, that focused on the creation of human impacts on climate. He reiterated contemporary concerns about the ongoing global cooling and that cooling leads to more extreme weather, droughts, floods, crop failures…
There were many climate modification proposals of the mid-1970s that conventional wisdom suggested would “offset an inadvertent climate change” and “stabilize the climate.” Purposely changing the climate by “creating a stratospheric dust layer” in space, “cutting down tropical forests,” diverting rivers and damming the Gulf stream, and even “creating surface temperature anomalies” could all potentially “relieve” the Earth of droughts, floods, and “gloomy long-range weather forecasts.”
One of the more prominent climate modification proposals was to “eliminate the Arctic Ocean ice pack” by “spreading black particles such as soot by aircraft” over the top of it. It was surmised that decreasing the reflectivity of a large area of the ice “would cause it to disappear in a period of about three years.” It was estimated that 10 million metric tons of soot would be needed to sufficiently blacken the ice; it would take about 500 aircraft 50 days to complete the job.
Another suggestion was to “dam the Bering Strait and pump water from the Arctic Ocean into the Pacific, thereby drawing warm Atlantic water in from the other side and raising the surface temperature enough to melt the ice pack.”
A third method proposed detonating “thermo-nuclear devices” in the middle of the Arctic Ocean to “fragment the ice.”
By the early 1980s Schneider had abandoned global cooling climate modification proposals and hopped onto the nascent global warming scare-mongering popularized by James Hansen.
In 1989 Schneider gave Discover magazine an interview (Jankovic and Schultz, 2017) in which he said climate scientists must choose between telling the truth and being effective in “working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change.” The latter choice necessitates capturing the public’s imagination by offering up “scary scenarios” and making “simplified dramatic statements” while avoiding mention of “any doubts we might have.”
This climate-scientist-as-political-activist proposal has been the clarion call for what anthropogenic global warming activism has become today.
The mean July, 2021, temperature for the RURAL volcanic Japanese island of Hachijojima – in the middle of the ocean some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, was 25.3°C. We plot the data for July going back to 1926:
Cool and wet weather expected to plague Europe into August
The previous three hot and dry European summers of 2018, 2019 and 2020 led “experts” to declare this was all the new normal for future – unless we surrender our freedom to regulatory masterminds.
But no sooner was the ink of that declaration dry, did the weather turn and deliver just the opposite this summer. Across much of Europe it’s been wet and cool. The warnings of permanent summer droughts have evaporated.
Now the latest GFS 10-day forecast for Hamburg area shows rainy weather with high temps mostly in the range of only the mid to upper 60s (18-20°C) as Atlantic lows continue to sweep across northern Europe.
The CFSv2 has continued to gradually cool the month of August in recent weeks and is now projecting a significantly supercooled and wet August 2021 in Central Europe.”
The study shows why burning trees in “sustainable” biomass plants using wood chips imported from around the world and deforestation to make way for wind parks are really bad ideas. Deforestation leads to warming.
And then imagine the effect trees have in sprawling megalopolises. One could easily argue that poor urban planning has been one of the main drivers of warming over the past 100 years. See cities with the most trees here, and here.
Forest ecosystems influence climate on global and local scales, the scientists say in the new study. One important feature of forests is the regulation of ecosystem microclimate.
Shading by trees, evaporation of water, storage of heat in biomass, and energy conversion through photosynthesis cause forests to cool themselves and their surroundings during hot weather. This can prevent damaging maximum temperatures, especially during prolonged heat waves, say scientists from Eberswalde (EUSD) in the study.
The scientist responsible for the study, Jeanette Blumröder, of the University for Sustainable Development, EUSD, states, “Increased logging and a correspondingly greater opening of the canopy drive up the maximum temperatures in the forest.”
0.5°C warmer with 10% less trees
An extensive series of measurements in beech forests and pine forests in northern Germany from the heat summers of 2018 and 2019 confirm that whenever the canopy is opened by 10%, the “average maximum temperatures increase by about half a degree Celsius”.
In a heavily thinned forest with a disintegrated canopy and interspersed with wind turbine access roads, the microclimatic regulation that is characteristic of forests is lost. This leads to severe heat and drought-induced damage and the dieback of old exposed trees in particular, new study finds. Photo: Copyright P. Gosselin
9°C warmer with 67% less biomass
In biomass-poor pine plantations (177 m3 per hectare), the average maximum temperature was 9°C higher than in relatively biomass-rich beech forests (> 565 m3 per hectare).
Over 13°C warmer in opened canopy pine forest
When pine plantations alone are considered, a significant influence of use intensity is also evident: during the hottest day in 2019, the difference in peak temperatures between those with a relatively dense canopy (72%) and those with a particularly open one (46%) was more than 13°C, the authors found.
Deforestation to make way for wind parks leads to severe heat and drought-induced damage and the dieback of old exposed trees . Photo: Copyright P. Gosselin
Trees guard against extreme weather?
Project leader Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch summarizes, “The conclusion is that forest managers therefore have some control in climate change over how much the forests entrusted to them heat up and are potentially damaged as a result. Higher biomass stocks and a closed canopy are insurance against extreme weather.”
The paper also critically discusses and casts doubt on previously common silvicultural recommendations to promote forest thinning. Water losses and the risk of heat damage increase with thinning. The authors recommend to keep the canopy as closed as possible (at least 80%) and to use the forests accordingly cautiously. In addition, they confirm the well-known demand to develop the simply structured conifer monocultures into structurally rich mixed deciduous forests as quickly as possible.
CO2 cools the planet?
What the scientists don’s bring up, however, is CO2’s impact on forest growth: More CO2 means more tree growth, which leads to cooling.
Original study: Blumroeder, Jeanette S., Felix May, Werner Härdtle, and Pierre L. Ibisch (2021) Forestry contributed to warming of forest ecosystems in northern Germany during the extreme summers of 2018 and 2019. Ecological Solutions and Evidence. DOI 10.1002/2688-8319.12087. Link to the article and the journal.
Authors:
Jeanette Silvin Blumröder & Prof. Dr. Pierre L. Ibisch Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development
Dr. Felix May AG Theoretische Biologie, Institut für Biologie, Freie Universität Berlin
Prof. Dr. Werner Härdtle Institut für Ökologie, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg
For further questions, please contact:
Expert contact
Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch
Professor for Nature Conservation
Tel.: +49 3334 657-178 pierre.ibisch@hnee.de
Press contact
Corinna Hartwig
Communications and media relations
Tel.: +49 3334 657-227 presse@hnee.de
Dozens of rapid warming and cooling periods episodically occurred throughout the last glacial. However, they have often been dismissed as local-only events. A 2020 study published in Science robustly affirms steeper-than-today warming periods spanned both hemispheres and 23 of 25 were “globally synchronous.”
Geologists have long recognized that Greenland abruptly warmed up by 5 to 16°C “within a few decades to centuries” about 25 times in the last ~100,000 years (Capron et al., 2021).
These past abrupt climate changes do not even require a clear external trigger to explain their provenance. They can simply be “unforced or noise-induced oscillations” internal to the climate system (Capron et al., 2021, Li and Born, 2019).
The magnitude and rapidity of the temperature changes occurring during the last glacial were many times greater than what has been observed in the modern era.
In the last 100 years , for example, Greenland has not experienced any obvious net warming. In fact, not only was the “1919–32 warming trend […] 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming” (Box et al., 2009), but the Greenland ice sheet has not warmed (net) since the early 2000s.
Globally, the average warming rate is just 0.05°C per decade since 1860 (Zhu et al., 2018).
When it’s pointed out that there were about 25 unforced, naturally-occurring abrupt climate changes (called interstadials) much faster and of much greater magnitude than the last few centuries, those wishing to advance the claim that modern warming is human-induced and unprecedented typically suggest these past warming episodes were just local changes specific to Greenland.
But a growing body of evidence from 63 independently published records has led scientists to conclude there was “synchronous timing” (within a few decades) spanning the entire globe – from Greenland to Antarctica to the tropics and mid-latitudes – for 23 of these 25 warming episodes (Corrick et al., 2020).
In other words, modern global warming is no more “special” in its magnitude or speed than the much larger unforced global climate changes internal to the climate system pervading the last glacial period.
Climate alarmism is looking increasingly like organized fraud and deception.
A German YouTube video reveals a number of charts prepared by Tony Heller illustrating how climate alarmists hide data in order to produce an alarming impression of the globe’s climate.
Today we present 4 pairs of charts to show how climate alarmists carefully cherrypick their start points and ignore all the available data in order to create totally phony climate scenarios.
US HEAT WAVES
The first pair looks at US heat waves. The alarmist chart starts at 1960, and so shows what appears to be an alarming trend:
But the data go back much further, and so the heat wave story loses all its alarm:
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