Observational Evidence Reveals Regional Arctic Sea Ice Was Thinner In 1955 Than In 2015-’17!

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According to a new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the observed mean thickness of the sea ice in the region north of (Arctic) Svalbard was substantially thinner (0.94 m) in 1955 than it has been in recent years (~1.6 m, 2015/2017).

Graph Source: Rösel et al., 2018

In 1955, the atmospheric CO2 concentration hovered around 315 ppm, about 90 ppm lower than today’s CO2 values.

It is widely assumed that the steep and substantial rise in CO2 concentration since the 1950s is largely responsible for warming the Arctic, and consequently the decline in the Arctic’s sea ice volume and extent (IPCC, 2013).  This assumption is significantly predicated on the observation that sea ice has undergone precipitous losses since the 1970s, which is when the satellite era began.

However, longer-term observational data do not appear to support the conclusion that Arctic region sea ice is driven by linear trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Indeed, there is evidence that Arctic sea ice extent was comparable or lower than now in the 1940s and 1950s (for example, see this annotated graph from Gagné et al., 2017).  Several other recently published papers also fail to support a CO2 – Arctic climate connection, as detailed in several articles found here at NoTricksZone during 2018.

1. 20 New Papers Crush Claims Of A Man-Made Link To Arctic Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, Sea Ice
2. Groundbreaking AGW-Undermining Study: Greenland’s Warming, Ice Loss Due To Geothermal Heat
3. Another New Paper Shows Arctic Sea Ice Has Been INCREASING Overall Since The 1930s
4. 12 New Papers Affirm A 21st Century Cessation Of Arctic Warming And A Rapid Cooling Across Antarctica
5.  Arctic Temps 2°-6°C Warmer Than Today With 4.5 Fewer Months Of Sea Ice Coverage 2,000 Years Ago
6.  New ‘Consensus’ Science: HALF Of 1979-Present Arctic Warming & Ice Loss Is Natural
7.  In 2015, Climate Scientists Wrecked Their Own CO2-Forced ‘Polar Amplification’ Narrative
8. Activists Continue To Peddle Unsupportable Claims Of NEVER-BEFORE Climate Alarm, Ignoring New Science

Regional Arctic sea ice was thicker than now in the 1950s?

In another newly published paper, observations from an Arctic region north of Svalbard affirm that sea ice thicknesses were indeed much higher than today during the 1970s, or when the linearly-decreasing sea ice trend documented by satellites (conveniently) commenced.

However, looking closely at Table 3 (shown in the introductory graph above) from the same paper, we see that sea ice thickness values may have been lower in the mid-1950s (0.94 m) than they are today (~1.6 m thicknesses on average).

If sea ice was was thinner than it is now during the same period of time that CO2 concentrations were substantially lower than they are now, this documented observational evidence appears to again undermine the conclusion that CO2 concentration rises are significantly connected to sea ice losses – or to the Arctic climate in general.


Rösel et al., 2018

Thin Sea Ice, Thick Snow, and Widespread Negative

Freeboard Observed During N‐ICE 2015 North of Svalbard

“We present a continuous time series of in situ measurements from the N‐ICE2015 expedition from January to June 2015 in the Arctic Basin north of Svalbard, comprising snow buoy and ice mass balance buoy data and local and regional data gained from electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys and snow probe measurements from four distinct drifts.
The observed mean snow depth of 0.53 m for April to early June [2015] is 73% above the average value of 0.30 m from historical [1955, 1970s] and recent observations in this region, covering the years 1955–2017.”
“The modal total ice and snow thicknesses, of 1.6 and 1.7 m [2015] measured with ground‐based EM and airborne EM measurements in April, May, and June 2015, respectively, lie below the [1970s] values ranging from 1.8 to 2.7 m, reported in historical observations from the same region and time of year [but well above the sea-ice thickness values of 0.94 m for 1955].”

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Claimed Antarctic Ice Loss An Artefact of Statistical Waterboarding…Fraught With Huge Uncertainty…

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On June 13 Chris Mooney of the Washington Post wrote how Antarctica’s ice sheet was “melting at a rapidly increasing rate” and “pouring more than 200 billion tons of ice into the ocean annually” — all this according to “a team of 80 scientists”. The doomsday media response was immediate.

Mooney of course blamed CO2 for the speculated ice melt change, and renewed the calls for a cut in greenhouse gas emissions in order to save ourselves.

Adventurous conclusion

Firstly the CO2 ice-melt logic here is extremely flimsy and even preposterous: An already hugely uncertain 200 billion ton figure gets adventurously blamed on Co2 through a long, uncertain and highly complex chain of physical processes — one that ignores an array of natural factors.

“Rate increase” meaningless

Secondly, Mooney’s language sounds dramatic, but the reality isn’t dramatic at all. A worker with an annual salary of $100,000 who gets a raise of $100 this year compared to $50 a year earlier also sees “a rapidly increasing” pay raise “rate” (100%). In reality the raise was meaningless.

Mooney and the media here are using trick language to purvey fake images of significant activity.

Only 0.001% of the total mass

Though the (hugely uncertain) 200 billion ton ice melt figure may sound impressive, it is in fact very tiny compared to the entire Antarctic total ice volume, which according to Dr. Don Easterbrook’s book “Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming Evidence-Based Climate Science” is estimated at 26.5 million cubic kilometers.

Artefact of statistical torture

200 cubic kilometers of 26.5 million cubic kilometers is in reality only about an estimated paltry 0.001% of the total Antarctic ice mass. And (if it were true) would have only a minor effect on overall sea level rise.

The scientists themselves admit there’s much uncertainty involved and that the calculated 200 billion ton ice loss depends in part on model assumptions. Read more here.

The 200 billion ton figure is indeed more an artefact of statistical torture and modelling. When it comes to complex Antarctic ice mass, you can make the paltry data that’s available say whatever you want.

In this case 80 scientists participated in the waterboarding of the data.

One decade is not climate, but rather weather variability

What is more, the authors compared the last decade to the one before. Well, changes seen in one decade and compared to the one earlier is what we call weather changes, not climate change. Just because one decade is wetter than the one before it, it doesn’t mean the next will be wetter as well. Junk science.

Reality: Antarctic ice area growing rapidly

The satellite imagery and data concerning Antarctic ice area, which go back almost 40 years, in fact show an increasing long-term trend, according to one recently published peer-reviewed study.

Antarctic cooling

And in order for Antarctica to lose ice through melting, the temperature there would necessarily need to rise. Yet the best satellite data we have on this show this is not the case at all.

Satellite data spanning four decades show no temperature increase. The RSS data in fact indicate slight cooling over the past decade where accelerated melting is being claimed. How can cooling cause more melting? Source: here.

Antarctic coastal surface stations show no warming

At Twitter, Japanese skeptic Kirye has been looking at NASA surface stations scattered over Antarctica, most of them near the coast, and found that many do not show any warming, e.g. Casey, Davis, Mawson, Syowa

Other studies show ice growth!

Moreover NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally published a paper in 2015 showing ice sheet growth in eastern Antarctica had outweighed the losses in the western ice sheet, and so ice mass was growing and not shrinking.

And today Zwally is set to release a new study that will show that the eastern Antarctic ice sheet continues to gain enough ice to offset the losses in the west. “Basically, we agree about West Antarctica,” Zwally told The Daily Caller. “East Antarctica is still gaining mass. That’s where we disagree.”

Zwally believes ice sheet growth is anywhere from 50 gigatons to 200 gigatons a year, the Daily Caller reports here.

Ocean cycles responsible for west Antarctic ice melt

Ice loss in the western Antarctic ice sheet is suspected of being driven by “warm ocean water”, i.e. natural oceanic cycles, and not warming that still has yet to occur over the Antarctic.

Prof. Don Easterbrook concluded in 2016 concerning the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which everyone loves to worry about:

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is NOT collapsing, the retreat of these small glaciers is NOT caused by global warming, and sea level is NOT going to rise 10 ft.”

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Weather Info Today “80- 90% Nonsense”, Veteran Meteorologist Bemoans Media Hype/Nonsense

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Top Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann blasts the quality of modern weather information in Germany, warning that 80-90% of weather stories found in the online media are “false information” or even “made-up nonsense”, and feels his field has become “a hoard of anarchy.”

Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann. Photo source: https://weather.us/

Yesterday here I reported how veteran Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann, 59, called the blaming of single weather events on climate change “complete idiocy”.

The quality of weather reporting and information, and the overall knowledge of natural sciences, have gotten so bad in Germany, according to Kachelmann, that he felt compelled to comment at the online Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung (HAZ). He wrote (link added by author):

 In matters concerning natural sciences, a collective educational precariat rules.”

Meaning: when it comes to knowledge of natural sciences, and especially meteorology, Germany is in trouble, and the citizens are being terribly disinformed.

Excessive, click-baiting media hype

One of the major reasons behind the destructive development, according to Kachelmann, is all the “nonsense” that gets reported by the media concerning the weather.

One example is the often-made claim today that severe thunderstorms or heavy downpours are linked to “climate change”. What in the past used to be just called a storm or bad weather, now gets recorded by countless mobile devices and sent to some studio, where it is hyped and sold as a 100-year event of Biblical proportions.

“Anarchy” ruling day-to-day weather reports

Kachelmann comments how today one often finds weather tips in the German media, e.g. for golfers and mountaineers, but which are in fact “complete idiocy”. Much of the nonsense, the Swiss meteorologist believes, is driven by the media’s insatiable appetite for clicks. “There’s anarchy in the weather report,” Kachelmann writes.

Today every north wind in the wintertime gets dubbed the “Siberian whip!” or every warm summer breeze from the south now gets labelled as a “Saharan heat wave!”, he describes.

Meteorology has become a hoard of anarchy

Kachelmann’s observations are spot on. But we could add that the rush to crank out sensational headlines is not limited to tabloids, but also flagship media outlets and once renowned weather and climatological institutes, who are now getting into the click-baiting, attention-seeking extreme weather frenzy.

For example “renowned” institutes are increasingly linking foul weather to climate change, and warn things are only going to get worse! “We’re toast!” the AP once warned, citing serious scientists.

“80 to 90% false information” …”or made up”

In Kachelmann’s view the field of meteorology has deteriorated so much that he comments at HAZ:

It’s truly a drama: Today 80 to 90 percent of the weather stories in the German online media are false information or often freely made-up nonsense. My science has become a hoard of anarchy.”

He adds:

The absence of knowledge about nature allows every nonsense to be printed — in order to generate clicks — yet not be recognized as such.”

So why has the German citizenry become so weather-disinformed?

Kachmann points to the educational system, where children are allowed to bypass natural science classes at schools. He comments at HAZ:

It is breathtaking what only a few decades and the allowance to skip school subjects can do to a country that, at least in folksongs, was long familiar with storms.”

============================================
Jörg Kachelmann runs Kachelmannwetter.com and, in cooperation with Dr. Ryan Maue, weather.us. He was formerly the meteorologist for flagship ARD German television.

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Prominent Swiss Meteorologist Says Blaming Weather Events On Climate Change “Unscientific Idiocy”

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No one understands the causes of weather better than highly experienced meteorologists. And so when it comes to questions about extreme weather events, there is no one better to ask than prominent Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann (or Joe Bastardi in the US).

Yesterday at Twitter the veteran, high-profile Swiss meteorologist Kachelmann tweeted about an interview he had given with Austrian online magazine profil.at on the topic of extreme weather in Europe, and how the interview was withdrawn before publication.

Low-blow, dirty media

The main reason behind the withdrawal was Mr. Kachelmann taking issue with what he viewed as low-blow journalism by profil.at, who in the introduction needlessly brought up the phony rape charges lodged against Kachelmann 8 years ago by a scornful ex-girlfriend.

Though the former German flagship ARD television meteorologist was cleared of the charges and got through the legal ordeal, his reputation tragically did not survive the media feeding frenzy and gutter journalism.

To make a long story short, Kachelmann yesterday simply posted a draft of the unpublished profil.at interview at Twitter, before later taking it down.

But I managed to read it and so now report on its content.

Click-hungry sites hyping weather extremes

In the interview, Profil.at questioned Kachelmann about the warmer European springs, weather extremes, serious scientists, and other issues.

On the subject of the recent warmer springs and more severe thunderstorm activity, Kachelmann responded that it has gotten warmer, but that the alleged higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events has more to do with hype coming from places like Facebook and click-hungry Internet sites.

Not linked to climate change

Kachelmann added it’s normal for large weather patterns “to act up” and that it “has nothing to do with climate change”.

However he does attribute the warmer temperatures and higher humidity to climate change and that it is “statistically significant”, but then reminds that the statistics for weather extremes have yet to be shown as being significant.

“Completely senseless tweets from Greenpeace”

When asked about climate denialism and why people like Donald Trump get votes with climate change denialism, the Swiss meteorologist says: “There’s a lack of scientific knowledge on both sides.”

Next he cited examples from on social media:

Over the last weeks I’ve seen so many completely senseless tweets from Greenpeace and green politicians, who wish to blame without any doubt the daily weather on climate change, often with fake statistics, and so climate deniers are not alone. Serious scientists are working quietly between the embarrassing megaphones on both sides.”

Blame measurement instruments?

As an example of just how absurd the media can be, in the interview profil.at unwittingly displayed a remarkable ignorance of climate (which all-too often prevails among the climate-ambulance-chasing-media) in posing the question: “Are there reliable instruments today that would allow us to determine if a weather event can be attributed to climate change, or indeed to the weather pattern at hand?”

Blaming weather on climate change “idiocy”

Kachelman answers by telling profil.at that weather events unfortunately don’t come with a certificate of origin, and any claim that they do needs to be viewed as “unscientific idiocy”.

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Another Warming ‘Hole’? Observations Show The North Atlantic COOLED By -0.8°C/Century Since 1800s

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In a new paper, scientists document another long-term cooling trend, this time in the North Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures.  Characterized as yet another stubborn “warming hole” in the anthropogenic “global” warming (AGW) narrative, the cooling trend amounts to “0.8 K century-1” and does not follow expectations outlined in models of  global-scale warming.


The portrayal of a globally-synchronous warming of the Earth with only small pockets of “warming hole” anomalies  is not supported by local and regional data reported in scientific papers.

In the Northern Hemisphere, for example, scientists (Kretschmer et al., 2018) have identified other “warming holes” in the temperature data for the 1990-2015 period.  About 80% of the contiguous U.S., Europe and much of Asia, including parts of the Arctic (Eastern Siberia), cooled during the 1990-2015 period, as shown here.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica has not warmed in the last 38 years.   And according to Purich et al., 2018, most of the Southern Ocean has been cooling since the late 1970s as well (as shown here).

There are not tiny, isolated holes of cooling in an otherwise uniformly-warming world.  These are gaping expanses of cooling…or non-warming.

Yes, some regions of the globe have been warming.  Some regions have been cooling.  And some regions remain trendless.

But in recent decades, the warming has not been global in scope.


Gervais et al., 2018

Mechanisms Governing the Development of the North Atlantic

Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate Simulations

“Recent studies have documented the development of a warming deficit in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) both in observations of the current climate (Rahmstorf et al. 2015; Drijfhout et al. 2012) and in future climate simulations (Drijfhout et al. 2012; Marshall et al. 2015; Woollings et al. 2012). This ‘North Atlantic warming hole’ (NAWH) is characterized in the observed record as a region south of Greenland with negative trends in SSTs of 0.8 K century-1 (Rahmstorf et al. 2015). In fully coupled global climate model (GCM) future simulations, the NAWH is seen as a significant deficit in warming within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (Marshall et al. 2015; Winton et al. 2013; Gervais et al. 2016).  This local reduction in future warming is communicated to the overlying atmosphere and may impact atmospheric circulation (Gervais et al. 2016), including the North Atlantic storm track (Woollings et al. 2012).”

5 Other New Papers Also Document A Warming “Hole” In the North Atlantic

  1. Grieman et al., 2018

2. Nicolle et al., 2018

3.  Thornalley et al., 2018

4. Smeed et al., 2018

5. Piecuch et al., 2017

 

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Swedish Researchers Confirm 20th Century Warming “Does Not Stand Out” Over Past 2500 Years!

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A very recent study by Swedish scientists appearing in the journal Climate of the Past examining bottom water temperature (BWT) off the coast of Western Sweden (Gullmar Fjord) going back 2500 years found that “the most recent warming of the 20th century does not stand out.”

Team of researchers led by Irina Polovodova Asteman, University of Gotheberg, produced a record of bottom water temperature off the coast of western Sweden and found 20th century warming “does not stand out.” Photo: ResearchGate, University of Gothenburg

The 2500-year winter temperature record was of reconstructed by using a fjord sediment archive from the NE Atlantic and through analysis of oxygen isotopes and other methods. The study was based on an approximately 8-meter long sediment core extracted from the Gullmar Fjord (Sweden).

They found that the Gullmar Fjord d18O record mainly reflects variability of the winter bottom water temperatures with a minor salinity influence.

The researchers also pointed out that a comparison with instrumental winter temperature observations from Central England and Stockholm shows that the fjord record picks up the contemporary warming of the 20th century, see following diagrams:

t

t

Chart: Polovodova et al 2018

According to the scientists, the Gullmar Fjord record shows a substantial and long-term warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE) which was followed by variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE).

The Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) is also indicated by positive bottom water temperature anomalies, while the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE) is characterized by a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability.

The team of Swedish scientists, led by Irina Polovodova Asteman, Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, noted “the most recent warming of the 20th century does not stand out, but appears to be comparable to both the Roman Warm Period and the MCA (Medieval Climate Anomaly).

 

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Coal Use To Explode By 43% Worldwide! …German Energy Expert: “Foundation Of The Paris Accord Has Collapsed”

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Yesterday German energy expert and scientist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt commented at his monthly column at Die kalte Sonne site here on solar activity, CO2 and coal power in Germany.

Photo: Fritz Vahrenholt, source: Die kalte Sonne

Sun factor grossly underestimated

Lately the sun’s activity has been very quiet as the star at the center of our solar system transitions over to a new solar cycle. April sunspot activity was very low in May. Vahrenholt then cites a recent study by Lewis and Curry showing that climate sensitivity to CO2 is in fact “up to 45% less than what the IPCC and the mainstream of climate science would like to have us believe.” Vahrenholt comments:

What was interesting however was the reaction of the mainstream: the methods used by Curry and Lewis in the study were not doubted. However, it could mean – according to the mainstream – that the earth will react very differently to CO2 in the future, i.e. get warmer. That’s what we can call speculative science, namely trust in the models which in the past have failed and have not been able to depict ocean circulation and clouds.”

So with CO2 not being at the factor it was made out to be, and because the Paris Accord is based on the spectacle of a rapidly warming planet, Vahrenholt writes that the “foundation of the Paris Accord has collapsed.”

Only Europe and Canada exiting coal

Another reason the Paris Accord is collapsing is because it’s not going to do anything we were promised it would.

When it comes to coal, Vahrenholt notes, so far only Europe and Canada have expressed some sort of a commitment to exit coal, and then he reminds us China, India and all developing countries will still be permitted to continue “massively” expanding their use of coal. He writes:

In China 280,000 MW and in India 174,000 MW are going to be added. By comparison: the entire brown coal fleet in Germany has a capacity of 22,700 MW. 1600 coal-fired power plants will be built in 62 countries across the world, most of them, by the way, will be built by Chinese power plant builders with the help of credits from China. Approximately 15,300 MW in Pakistan, 16,000 in Bangladesh, and even Myanmar with 5100 MW. (Source: South China Morning Post).

In other words, Angela Merkel and her green punch drinkers think the climate is going to be saved if Germany shuts down 1/20 of what China and India are going to add. No wonder Trump dumped the idiotic Accord.

Coal to expand 43% worldwide

And to illustrate what a farce the Paris Accord has become, the German energy expert adds: “In total, coal power plant capacity will expand by 43% worldwide.

Germany to lay out the blueprint for its own demise

Currently Germany is gradually growing obsessed with the idea of a coal exit, and is setting up a Coal Commission to launch the endeavor. The Commission “however will not be made up of energy, power grid and technology experts, but rather with Greenpeace, BUND and local citizens initiatives who are against brown coal,” writes Vahrenholt.

“The idea of including critics of alternative energy, which has become the largest destroyer of nature since WWII, never dawned on any politician.”

Green state fundamentalism

The Coal Commission of course should include Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, fiormer director of the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute and architect of the Great Transformation masterplan, which calls for an immediate end to the economic model that is based on “fossil industrial metabolism”, making climate protection the “fundamental target of the state by which the legislative, executive and judicial branches are to align themselves.”

Paris absurdity

According to Vahrenholt, the phase-out of coal will mean the decarbonization of Germany, which in turn will mean its deindustrialization. This, according to Vahrenholt, all coming to the great delight of the Chinese

A dismayed Vahrenholt sums up:

“Trump was clever enough, to exit the Paris absurdity early enough.”

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Scientists: Solar Forcing Will ‘Dampen’ Global Temperatures In 2030-2040 – ‘Only 1.1 K’ Warming By 2100

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In two new papers, scientists affirm a strong connection between solar activity and the Earth’s climate, as temperatures are said to be 3 times more sensitive to solar forcing than CO2 forcing

With the advent of  a grand minimum in the coming decades, a consequent “dampening” of temperatures (and slowing of sea level rise) is expected. 

Between 2000 and 2100, surface temperatures are only expected to warm by a total of about 1.1°C, a climate change that may ultimately be beneficial.  


McCrann et al., 2018

The effect of the Sun’s activity on Earth’s climate has been identified since the 1800s.  However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth’s climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level. This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sun’s activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels.”

“A clear 60-year cycle has been identified in many studies, and in accordance with this, it is expected that temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040. This is in agreement with the forecasted low sunspot activity that is usually linked to lower temperatures.”

“Furthermore, considering the influence of the Solar Inertial Motion, a solar slowdown is predicted for Solar Cycles 24 and 25, which will create a weak grand minimum. It is anticipated that this weak grand minimum will be reflected in a dampening effect of global temperatures, and a subsequent moderation in the rate of sea level rise.”


Booth, 2018

“The TCR [transient climate response] to doubled CO2 is less than 2K (1.93 ± 0.26K).  Only 1.1 K of HadCRUT4 warming is expected between 2000 and 2100AD.  ∼35% of the warming during 1980–2001 was from solar variability, by 2 different analyses.”

Temperature is nearly 3 times as sensitive to solar radiation as to CO2 radiation.  A model for ocean warming estimates equilibrium sensitivity as 15% greater than TCR [transient climate sensitivity].”

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New Hell Climate Change Gets Certified …Schellnhuber Prophesizes “End Of Civilization”

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There’s capital to be derived from climate change, and now spiritual leaders and organized religion are getting in the act. And they offer a real Hell you can believe in – even certified by science!

Religion comes up with an all new, improved Hell

As enlightenment over the past decades and centuries have led the masses to doubt the once colorful concept of Hell — that fire-filled place reserved for the incorrigibly unvirtuous and run by reptilian demons — spiritual leaders have seen their clout in modern society erode. No longer is it so easy for them to control people’s behavior with feelings of guilt and threats of eternal damnation.

Recently, however, spiritual leaders have uncovered a new instrument to gain back some control over the masses: climate change – the new, and this time real Hell – yes, that’s been confirmed by 97% of the climate prophets – so disbelieve at your own risk!

Holy Words

This was demonstrated not long ago by Pope Francis’s Laudato si, His second encyclical. According to Wikipedia: “In it, the Pope critiques consumerism and irresponsible development, laments environmental degradation and global warming, and calls all people of the world to take ‘swift and unified global action’.”

The new Hell certified by “leading scientists”!

In a nutshell, do as they say or perish in climate hell. Laudato si was authored in large part by the Pope of Climate Doom himself, Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber of the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

And just earlier this week, according to the online thecourier.com here  now the orthodox Christians are getting in on the act too. Once again Orthodox leaders too can let themselves stand morally above all others and preach to us on our sinful ways. And should we, the masses, not heed their Holy Science-Certified Words, then the new Hell (climate change) will ferociously engulf us as never seen before.

Hat-tip: a reader

Frustrated scientists: message “not reaching people”

According to The Courier, leading climate change experts and campaigners gathered in Greece so that they could “work with the leaders of the Orthodox Church and other religions to fight global warming”.

Apparently activists and scientists are frustrated that their message is not reaching people fast enough. The two-day conference was inaugurated by “Green Patriarch” Bartholomew.

If science fails – then move on to faith!

Of course in attendance was the former PIK director and now accepted prophet Hans-Joachim (John) Schellnhuber. He told those in attendance:

Faith can help us because we scientists have tried everything. We can’t say what’s happening in a more compelling way when we warn about the end of civilization.”

According to the Courier, “hundreds of islanders” greeted Bartholomew “upon his arrival by boat”. The conference also included “long-breaded Orthodox priests” who got around in “golf carts and horse-drawn carriages”.

Climate visionaries and dignitaries

Also in attendance was a climate adviser to the Pope: Bill McKibben of 350.org; Jane Lubchenco, former NOAA head under Obama; Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC replacement for Christiana Figueres; Christiana Figueres herself, now Mission 2020; WAPO journalist Juliet Eilperin; and Jeffrey Sachs, economist, Columbia Earth Institute and climate adviser to the Pope.

No word if they came in on row boats, or horse-drawn carriages.

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100-Year Russian Arctic Temperature Reconstruction Shows 1930s Just As Warm As Today!

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Russian Arctic in 1920-1940 was warmer than today

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

The topic today is the temperature trend in the Arctic. Of special interest are the hard facts. At Climate4You we find the satellite measured temperature development (UAH) of the Arctic:

 Figure 1: Temperature chart of the Arctic over the past 40 years (satellite measurement). Data: UAH. Chart: Climate4You

Arctic temperatures today “similar” to 1980

We do see a warming over the past 4 decades. Since the El Nino-induced peak of 2016, the temperature has fallen gradually. The coldest temperatures were recorded at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s.

At around 1980 similar temperatures as those of today were measured. Unfortunately there is no satellite data for the time before 1979, and so not even a full 60-year ocean cycle is covered, and thus this makes it really difficult to assign warming to man or to natural causes over the recent decades.

Russian Arctic just as warm in the 1930s as today!

But of course there were weather stations before 1979, and these showed a warming phase in the Arctic already in the 1930s and 1940s, a time when it was just as warm as it is today. Example: Opel et al. 2009 reconstructed the temperature history in the Russian Arctic for the last 100 years using ice cores. The warm maximum occurred in the 1930s and not today:

115 year ice-core data from Akademii Nauk ice cap, Severnaya Zemlya: high-resolution record of Eurasian Arctic climate change
From 1999 to 2001 a 724 m deep ice core was drilled on Akademii Nauk ice cap, Severnaya Zemlya, to gain high-resolution proxy data from the central Russian Arctic. Despite strong summertime meltwater percolation, this ice core provides valuable information on the regional climate and environmental history. We present data of stable water isotopes, melt-layer content and major ions from the uppermost 57 m of this core, covering the period 1883–1998. Dating was achieved by counting seasonal isotopic cycles and using reference horizons. Multi-annual δ18O values reflect Eurasian sub-Arctic and Arctic surface air-temperature variations. We found strong correlations to instrumental temperature data from some stations (e.g. r = 0.62 for Vardø, northern Norway). The δ18O values show pronounced 20th-century temperature changes, with a strong rise about 1920 and the absolute temperature maximum in the 1930s. A recent decrease in the deuterium-excess time series indicates an increasing role of the Kara Sea as a regional moisture source. From the multi-annual ion variations we deduced decreasing sea-salt aerosol trends in the 20th century, as reflected by sodium and chloride, whereas sulphate and nitrate are strongly affected by anthropogenic pollution.”

Figure 2: Temperature chart Severnaya Zemlya (Russian Arctic) over the past 130 years. Upper peaks = warm. Source: Opel et al. 2009

A part of the warming by the way, has to do with measures that keep the air clean in Europe. The anthropogenic sulfate particle kept the Arctic cool for many years, so reports that University of Stockholm (via Science Daily). Should we get back to being dirty for reasons of climate change?

European clean air policies unmask Arctic warming by greenhouse gases

[…] The drastic cut in sulfate particle emissions in Europe partly explains the amplified Arctic warming since the 1980s, shows a new study published in Nature Geoscience. The team, which consists of scientists from Stockholm University and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, say that their surprising finding highlights an even more urgent need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate Arctic climate change. Human activities, such as industrial production, transport, power generation, and wood burning emit large amounts of tiny pollutant particles containing, for example, soot and sulfate, into the atmosphere. High airborne amounts of these particles, also known as aerosol particles, cause about 400,000 premature deaths every year in Europe and can be transported over long distances. Aerosol particles have different sizes, as well as chemical and physical properties, all of which determine their climate effects.

“Soot particles absorb solar radiation and warm the climate, in a similar way as greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, do. Sulfate particles, on the other hand, reflect solar radiation and act as seeds for cloud droplet formation, cooling the climate as a result,” says Juan Acosta Navarro, PhD student at the Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES) and the Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, and co-author of the study. He continues: “The overall effect of aerosol particles of human origin on climate has been a cooling one during the last century, which has partially masked the warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.” […]

J. C. Acosta Navarro, V. Varma, I. Riipinen, Ø. Seland, A. Kirkevåg, H. Struthers, T. Iversen, H.-C. Hansson, A. M. L. Ekman. Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe. Nature Geoscience, 2016; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2673

But also later alterations to the measurement data make the Arctic look warmer today than it actually is (see here and here). A nice summary of climate change in the Arctic can be found at Judith Curry’s site.

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The Heat Is Gone! Hurricane Expert: “Tropical Atlantic 2nd Coldest”…”Could Suppress Hurricane Activity”

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Unusually cold tropical Atlantic could suppress hurricane activity this year, says Colorado State University hurricane expert Phillip Klotzbach. However cold tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures don’t necessarily mean reduced hurricane risk.

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane expert Phillip Klotzback at Twitter commented that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the 2nd coldest on record and that this could mean “significantly suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Cold tropical Atlantic doesn’t mean fewer hurricanes hitting US!

However history shows that it is purely speculative that cold tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will act to suppress hurricanes hitting the US.

Klotzback notes that the coldest tropical sea surface temperatures seen in June were recorded in 1985, and looking at the 1985 US hurricane season Wikipedia tells us that season was in fact a rather nasty one for the entire east coast of the USA:

The 1985 Atlantic hurricane season featured eight landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States, including a record-tying six hurricanes, the most in a single year since 1916.

 

1985 season record “destructive and disruptive”

Wikipedia writes that “the year featured average activity overall” but was “particularly destructive and disruptive for the United States, with damage amounting to a then-record US$4 billion.”

Further, Wikipedia adds: “The entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, was under a gale warning at some point during the year and a portion of every state was under a hurricane warning.

Bastardi warns of the “in-close” threat

Observing the 1985 hurricane chart, we see that the vast majority of the 11 named storms formed “in-close”, relatively near the US mainland.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi warned in his May 26th WeatherBell Saturday Summary that warm waters near the coast needed real attention and harbored plenty of threat. In no way should people let themselves get casual about it.

So, don’t let all the cold tropical Atlantic surface water fool you into  thinking that the upcoming hurricane season is going to be on the light side for the US coast.

1985 shows us things can get pretty nasty even when the surface of the tropical Atlantic basin is cold.

===============================
Philip Klotzback is a meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Avid runner, cyclist and hiker.

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Scientists Find Sun-Driven Temperature Changes Led CO2 Changes By 1300-6500 Years In The Ancient Past

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It has long been established in the scientific literature (and affirmed by the IPCC) that CO2 concentration changes followed Antarctic temperature changes by about 600 to 1000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions throughout the last ~800,000 years (Fischer et al., 1999Monnin et al., 2001Caillon et al., 2003Stott et al., 2007Kawamura et al., 2007).

In contrast, two new papers cite evidence that the timing of the lagged CO2 response to temperature changes may have ranged between 1300 and 6500 years in some cases.  It would appear that a millennial-scale lagged response to temperature undermines the claim that CO2 concentration changes were a driver of climate in the ancient past.  


Koutavas et al., 2018

Temperature correlations between the eastern equatorial

Pacific and Antarctica over the past 230,000 years

“The EEP [eastern equatorial Pacific] stack shows persistent covariation with Antarctic temperature on orbital and millennial timescales indicating tight coupling between the two regions. This coupling however cannot be explained solely by CO2 forcing because in at least one important case, the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e–5d glacial inception, both regions cooled 5–6.5 thousand years before CO2 decreased. More likely, their covariation was due to advection of Antarctic climate signals to the EEP by the ocean.”
The discovery that atmospheric CO2 covaries with Antarctic temperature and global ice volume (Lorius et al., 1990; Lüthi et al., 2008; Petit et al., 1999) has propelled CO2 to the forefront as climatic “globalizer”.  However, the processes governing CO2 variability are themselves poorly understood, and likely require an oceanic/climatic trigger in the first place (Adkins, 2013; Ferrari et al., 2014; Sigman et al., 2010).”
“Antarctic ice core records are furthermore ambiguous with regard to the causal relationship between CO2 and temperature. Phase relationships show CO2 lagging behind temperature in the obliquity band (Jouzel et al., 2007) and across some major transitions (Caillon et al., 2003; Fischer et al., 1999; Kawamura et al., 2007; WAIS Divide Project Members, 2013), most prominently during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e–5d boundary, i.e. the last glacial inception. Antarctic cooling at this time was associated with a major Milankovitch signal, and appears to have transpired almost entirely before the change in CO2 concentration. It remains unclear whether the temperature lead was restricted to Antarctica or was broader.”

Uemura et al., 2018

Asynchrony between Antarctic temperature and CO2

associated with obliquity over the past 720,000 years

“Precise knowledge of the relationship between changes in temperature, atmospheric CO2 and solar insolation is essential to understanding Earth’s climate system. The values of a temperature proxy, the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD), in the Antarctic EDC ice core have varied in parallel with CO2 concentrations over the past 800 thousand years (kyr; r2 = 0.82). However, δD [temperature] apparently leads CO2 variations.”
The lead is ca. 2000 years at a West Antarctic site.”
Over the past 420 kyr, the Vostok ice core shows that the Antarctic δD temperatures lead the CO2 variations by 1.3 ± 1.0 kyr.”
During the lukewarm interglacials (430–650 kyr BP), Antarctic δD [temperature] leads CO2 by 1900 years, and the correlation between CO2 and δD is weaker (r2 = 0.57), as determined from the EDC core.”
“Although the mechanisms underlying the coupling and the phase lags remain unclear, the Southern Ocean region, rather than Antarctica, is thought to play the central role in regulating CO2 variations. A box model, for example, estimated a ca. 60% increase in CO2 during TI that is attributable to direct and indirect temperature effects, such as changes in sea ice cover and vertical mixing in the Southern Ocean. On millennial time scales, a multi-proxy study suggests that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes resulted in Antarctic temperatures leading global temperatures and CO2 during TI [the last glacial termination].  … [O]ur data suggest that the lead in Antarctic δD temperatures (i.e. temperature without correcting for source effects) over CO2 is partly attributable to the effects of the moisture source on δD temperatures over the past 720 kyr in the obliquity band. These results suggest that the importance of moisture source effects for the obliquity signal in δD. Thus, the source effect must be considered in future research about the relationship between Antarctic temperatures and CO2.”
Within the obliquity frequency band, our analyses suggest that temperature variations in Antarctica have led ocean temperatures throughout the past 720 kyr. This phenomenon is most likely explained by the strong influence of local AMI on ΔT. … During TI [the last glacial termination], CO2 rose at ~18 kyr BP, which is related to the melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and the subsequent weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Thus, the timing at which CO2 begins to rise during a termination would be determined by when the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet begins to melt. When eccentricity is small, the summer insolation maxima are small. Thus, if obliquity rises beyond the threshold of melting, a moderate climate forcing could cause warming enough that the southern margin of the North American ice sheet begin to retreat.”

Studies Indicating Temperature-CO2 Lag Was 600-1000 Years


IPCC (2007)

“Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature changes in Antarctica with a lag of some hundreds of years.”

Stott et al., 2007

Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming
“Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.”

Caillon et al., 2003

“The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”

Fischer et al., 1999

“High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations.”

Monnin et al., 2001

The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years.”

Indermuhle  et al., 2000

“The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a [CO2] lag of (1200 ± 700) yr.”

Kawamura et al., 2007    

“Our chronology also indirectly gives the timing of the CO2 rise at [glacial] terminations, which occurs within 1 kyr of the increase in Antarctic temperature.”
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Climate Scientists “Gone Astray”…”Climate Alarm Bubble Gradually Rupturing”, German Scientists Say

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At the Wall Street Journal, Steven F. Hayward penned a great summary on the current state of the climate movement, telling us the CO2 climate change issue is quickly running out of oxygen.

Comparing the movement to earlier environmental movements, Hayward tells us that such movements can be broken down into 5 phases:

  1. Bring attention to the problem
  2. Euphoric enthusiasm to solve it
  3. Realization of the huge, painful costs
  4. Thus a decline of interest follows
  5. Issue moves to limbo…kept on life support

When it comes to climate change issue, today we find itself at stage 4, at least in Europe. In the USA it’s at about stage 5.

So it’s little wonder that climate scientists are frustrated, and openly lashing out in bursts of rhetorical aggression of the sort we discussed here when they get criticized.

Climate scientists losing relevance

Leading climate scientists, who once fancied themselves as the architects of a new society and as policy masterminds, are now realizing they are becoming irrelevant. A very bitter pill to swallow indeed.

Yesterday German scientists Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt commented (below) on NASA’s Gavin Schmidt’s and PIK’s Stefan Rahmstorf’s harsh reactions to the public criticism from sociologist and and think-tank director Oliver Geden:

Stefan Rahmstorf loses his nerves at Twitter

Geden believes the job of policymaking needs to be left to policymakers, and not nerdy climate scientists in lab coats. Geden accused the activist climate scientists of “overconfidence bias”.

=====================================

Lüning and Vahrenholt comment at Die kalte Sonne on the reaction that ensued:

“Naturally that did not please the climate alarmists at all. Foremost they want to rescue the world and turn it inside out. God forbid the notion of having to return to their dark labs and having to carry out the tedious and dull work involving climate science.

The desire for power is strong, and people generally do not give it up so easily. Gavin Schmidt takes the stage. You know him: he’s the director of the NASA-GISS Institute and climate activist just like his predecessor. He tweeted that climate scientists indeed could be politically active because, after all, they are constantly being asked for their opinions by decision-makers. Smart climatologists have long understood this (Schmidt’s tweet).

That was a cue for one of Schmidt’s best friend, namely Stefan Rahmstorf. He immediately took out the big stick to retaliate against the criticism aimed at his alarmist colleagues by Geden. He accused Geden of having much less contact with policymakers than he and his associates.

Rahmstorf has “discredited himself”

Moreover, he accused Geden of lacking academic credentials. Rahmstorf advised Geden to finally leave his climate colleagues alone and that they did not need his advice Tweet here. That’s the Rahmstorf we love: unreceptive to criticism and who hits below the belt. No wonder that he is no longer allowed to write on the IPCC report. With his very unbearable manner, he has completely discredited himself.

Geden coolly responded to Rahmstorf’s emotional outburst:

You want to make this personal, even if you haven’t been involved in the conversation? And my academic achievements aren’t good enough to criticize questionable factual claims? These are usually good enough to review articles on climate targets in Nature research journals…

plus: what exactly do you know about my direct contacts w/ policymakers? It’s my daily job since my institution (@SWPBerlin) is funded by the Chancellery to advise (whole) government and parliament (not only enviro & research), I even worked at the top level of two ministries,

therefore: I know not only what policymakers and politicians say when meeting ‘leading climate scientists’, but also what they say before and after those meetings, and what role (new) scientific knowledge plays in actual policymaking.’

Climate scientists “gone astray”

The above Twitter communication is a nice document confirming how the representatives of climate alarmism have gone astray. Obviously there is no interest in a balanced professional discussion. Research from inconvenient subjects should be stopped, policymakers should only listen to the alarmists.

The climate alarm bubble is gradually coming apart and we are seeing it live.”

=========================================

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Doomsday Climate Models Wrong Again! Hurricanes Declining…Flooding Over Europe Not More Frequent

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Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue pointed out here at Twitter that hurricane activity has not lived up to the climate model projections and that major hurricanes in the 1970s and 80s were “likely underestimated”

The hurricane expert tweeted:

Over the past 4-decades, number of global HURRICANE strength tropical cyclones (about 48/year) have actually DECREASED, while MAJOR hurricane strength tropical cyclones (about 25/year) have slightly (insignificant) trended upward.”

And:

Over the past 10-years (120-months) there have been 232 major hurricane strength tropical cyclones globally. In the 10-years prior, there were 252 majors. And the 10-years before that 258 majors. We likely underestimated majors in 1970s & early 1980s prior to Hi-Res satellites.”

No trend in flooding in Europe

And at the their Die kalte Sonne site here geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt report in Europe that floods and storms In Europe have not been more frequent, despite all the unending claims by the media.

Over the past week the German media hyped up some local, severe thunderstorms that had hit in parts of the country, causing heavy downpours and local flooding.

The media injected their usual Biblical tones in their reports.

Lüning and Vahrenholt first cite a recent study, which was even featured in detail by German DLF public radio, which tells us that the frequency and severity of heavy rain events and flooding have not increased in Europe over the past 150 years:

Severe weather in Europe: Flooding not more than in the past
When it comes to torrential rainfall and flooding, many people agree: Such things never happened in the past. But that is not true Dominik Paprotny of the University of Technology in Delft analyzed. Historical sources show that large floods are not more frequent today.”

Read more at Deutschlandfunk.de.

And DLF Nova reported:

Danger of flooding is the same as it was 150 years ago
High water and flooding in Europe has not become more frequent at all, a team of scientists in the Netherlands show. The scientists have put together a databank that looks at storms and floods back to 1870. Most international databanks go back to only to 1970.”

Read more at DLF Nova.

The study by Paprotny et al. 2018 appeared in Nature Communications and it can be downloaded free of charge as a pdf file. In the abstract:

Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years

[…] Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year.”

Recent flare-up in honesty in media “remarkable”!

Lüning and Vahrenholt then go on to express their surprise that the DLF would present the scientific results so “honestly and without climate alarmist undertones.” and that “it is remarkable for today’s mainstream journalism”, which over the years tended to link every summer thunderstorm to Co2 emitted by man.

Flooding was worse during Little Ice Age

Next Lüning and Vahrenholt present studies showing that flooding in Central Europe and in the Alps region was even worse during the Little Ice Age than it is today, see here, here, here, and here.

Potsdam Institute contradicted

Lüning and Vahrenholt next dismiss earlier claims by the climate alarmist Potsdam Institute, which earlier claimed “robust trends” concerning “summertime dry periods and greater occurrence of flooding” in the German state of Saxony Anhalt (pdf here).

The two German skeptic scientists examined the official data from the German DWD national weather service for Saxony Anhalt, and found the following:

Summer precipitation in Sachsen Anhalt seit 1880. Data source: DWD.

Lüning and Vahrenholt summarize with four man points:

  1. The linear trend for precipitation since 1881 is zero.
  2. Summer weather in Central Europe is controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), i.e. natural ocean cycles.
  3. The weather is not getting more extreme. The year-to-year differences in summertime precipitation is in fact showing a slight downward trend.
  4. In Saxony Anhalt, despite all the alarmist claims, there is no anthropogenic signal.
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Atomic Physicist: Human CO2 Emissions Have An Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Of A ‘Not Important’ 0.02 K

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Dr. Boris M. Smirnov, a prominent atomic physicist, has authored 20 physics textbooks during the last two decades.  His latest scientific paper suggests that the traditional “absorption band” model for calculating the effect of atmospheric CO2 during the radiative transfer process is flawed.  New calculations reveal that the climate’s sensitivity to a doubling of the CO2 concentration is just 0.4 K, and the human contribution to that value is a negligible 0.02 K.


Smirnov, 2018

Collision and radiative processes in

emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide

“One can explain why the absorption band model is not suitable for the change of the radiative flux due to doubling of the concentration of CO2 molecules. This quantity is determined by spectral ranges where the atmospheric optical thickness is of the order of one. Because averaging over oscillations for the absorption band model removes such ranges from consideration, this model leads to a large error.”

[I]t follows for the change of the global temperature as a result at doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules [is] ∆T = (0.4 ± 0.1) K, where the error accounts for the accuracy of used values, whereas the result depends on processes included in the above scheme. Indeed, we assume the atmospheric and Earth’s albedo, as well as another interaction of solar radiation with the atmosphere and Earth, to be unvaried in the course of the change of the concentration of CO2 molecules, and also the content of atmospheric water is conserved.”

“Because anthropogenic fluxes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulted from combustion of fossil fuels is about 5% [Kaufman, 2007], the contribution of the human activity to ECS (the temperature change as a result of doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount) is ∆T = 0.02 K, i.e. injections of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil fuels is not important for the greenhouse effect.”

Conclusion

“Above, we connect the emission of a gaseous layer located over a hot surface with the greenhouse phenomenon in the Earth’s atmosphere due to CO2 molecules. This analysis exhibits the importance of interaction of a radiating molecule with surrounding air molecules that is essential both in broadening of spectral lines and for absorption of CO2 molecules by other atmospheric components, as well as emission of these components. The evaluations fulfilled show that the contribution of emission of CO2 molecules to the total radiative flux directed toward the Earth is approximately 20%, as well as this contribution to its derivation over the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount. Comparison of methods of the absorption band which uses the absorption coefficient averaged over its frequency oscillations and the ‘line-by-line’ method without this averaging exhibits the accordance of these methods for determination of the radiative fluxes and a strong difference in evaluation of its derivative. This shows the importance of the ‘line-by-line’ method for the analysis of climatic problems.”
“Note that above we give a simple algorithm to determine the total emission of the Earth’s atmosphere due to CO2 molecules with using the spectroscopic parameters of these molecules on the basis of classical molecular spectroscopy. We note the principal steps which allow us to obtain this algorithm in a simple form. First, there is a local thermodynamic equilibrium for vibrationally excited molecules. Therefore, radiation is created by vibrationally excited molecules which are formed in collisions with air molecules, and their number density is determined by the Boltzmann formula. Second, the atmospheric optical thickness exceeds one, i.e. radiation toward the Earth and outside are separated, and the radiative flux at a given frequency is the blackbody flux, so that the radiative temperature for this frequency is the temperature of an effective layer. Third, interaction between carbon dioxide molecules and other optically active atmospheric components is of importance. This means that a change of the concentration of CO2 molecules leads simultaneously to a change of the radiative flux due to other components.”
“Based on the total absorption coefficient, which is a sum of those due to CO2 molecules and other atmospheric components, we take into account this effect. As a result, one can evaluate an additional radiative flux to the Earth’s surface due to a change of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and the corresponding analysis convinces us that contemporary injection of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil fuels is not important for the greenhouse effect.”
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Shocking Twitter Display Of Contempt And Hubris By Stefan Rahmstorf, NASA’s Gavin Schmidt

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In a shocking display of contempt and hubris, NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt and Potsdam Institute climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf lashed out in response to questioning… and insist “leading climate scientists” don’t need policing by “policy folk” and that the questioning is “tiresome” and “silly”.

Two days ago, German green-energy proponent Dr. Oliver Geden commented at Twitter on an editorial by Katherine Hayhoe, asking: “Why would climate scientists want to talk about ‘solution’ they obviously aren’t experts on?” Geden then added that it shows the “pitfalls of solutionism”.

Geden, a proponent of green energies and a warmist, is the Head of Research Division at the Berlin-based think tank German Institute For International Security Affairs.

At Twitter Geden publicly wondered about the wisdom of allowing climate scientists to be the leaders in the redesign of our complex civil infrastructure – you know, a job that traditionally and wisely was left to licensed architects, master builders and professional engineers – and not academics in lab coats.

Above the rules…We don’t need no “policing”

Reaction to Geden’s thinly veiled criticism came swiftly, especially from NASA GISS Director Gavin Schmidt, who pointed out that climate scientists don’t need no “policing”, thank you:

I’m blocked at Twitter by Gavin and his gang (even though I rarely even commented at their accounts), but an insider kindly provided their tweets.

According to Schmidt, getting policed by policy folk is “tiresome and silly” and he and his elitist academic high-flier colleagues shouldn’t have to put up with any of it.

Rahmstorf’s towering self-importance and superiority

Another real doozy of a reaction came from alarmist Potsdam Institute scientist, Stefan Rahmstorf. Most climate science skeptics are aware of how ugly Mr. Rahmstorf can get at times, and his most recent tweet totally lives up to that reputation:

Ouch.

Firstly it needs to be noted that Dr. Geden’s achievements are in fact quite impressive. What Rahmstorf needs to understand is that the people with the most “academic achievements” are not always the ones who get to make policy. That is the job of policymakers.

Secondly, we really have to wonder if it is wise for our policymakers to let themselves be advised by persons who harbor such contempt for other viewpoints and open debate.

Above questioning

Thirdly, Rahmstorf also reiterates Gavin’s position that “leading climate scientists” don’t need any “policing”. They seem to think they are above all that.

Geden is right: Gavin Schmidt and Stefan Rahmstorf are not really the only kind of people we may want formulating public policy and the ones we want our elected policymakers to be exclusively listening to. The heart of policymaking is open debate. Schmidt and Rahmstorf obviously despise it and so appear to not even understand even the most rudimentary element of democracy.

For them it’s: Shut up and let us run things because we’re the smartest.

People like Mr. Geden are also very smart, and they do need to be listened to.

“The art of climate communication”

How did Geden react to Rahmstorf’s nastiness and hubris? He called it “the art of winning a dispute on science communication.”

Gavin Schmidt and Prof. Rahmstorf owe Dr. Geden an apology in the least, and owe the public a bit more.

===================================
Dr. Oliver Geden is the Head of the Research Division at the Berlin-based German Institute For International Security Affairs, an Associate Fellow ; a lead author for IPCC_CH AR6; currently a visiting fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology & the CGG at the University of Hamburg.

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Sixt Car Rental CEO Sees No Future For Electric Cars…”Politically Serious Mistake”…”Devours Money”

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As the pressure mounts in Europe to ditch diesel-engine-powered cars and switch over to electric vehicles, a number of experts advise some sobriety before taking the great big green leap.

“Serious mistake”

According to the online German business weekly Wirthschaftswoche (WIWO) here, the CEO of Sixt car rental company, one of the largest in Europe, recently said he doesn’t believe in electric cars and that “it is a serious mistake politically.”

One main obstacle, Erich Sixt told in an telephone interview with with WIWO, is the supply of raw materials needed to manufacture car batteries, noting that the cobalt supply is mostly in the hands of China.

“Devour money”

CEO Sixt also mentioned other obstacles, among them the needed infrastructure to recharge the vehicles, which he says “would devour a lot of money”.

Scant demand

He also told WIWO that the range for electric cars was “a catastrophe”, adding that customers rarely ask for e-cars and that those who do, do so out of curiosity. Often things go awry for the those renting the cars:

Some call the rental outlet for help because they end up getting stuck on the autobahn after Garmisch-Partenkirchen.”

Thing of the rich

Sixt also says electric vehicles are a thing for the rich, who use them as a way to make themselves feel better. Sixt does, however, say there are some practical applications, such as renting them on small islands where range is not important.

He also told WIWO he would gladly take more into his fleet if demand warranted it.

ICE cars unbeatable in terms of reliability

WIWO summarizes Germany’s largest car rental CEO’s view of electric cars by reporting that overall he “doesn’t think much” of electric cars. The car and transportation expert obviously thinks that internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are still far superior.

When in the business of renting cars and making sure customers can reliably and safely get from point A to point B, or Z, the ICE cars are the way to go.

Germany in fact doing very little

Though German political leaders often talk big about electric mobility, so far very little has happened to make it a reality. All the talk about e-mobility has been lip service.

Electric vehicles are still more a green dream than they are reality. They’re great in the fantasy world, but in reality they are still a nightmare.

 

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Japanese Meteorological Agency Corrects Antarctic’s Long-Term Sea Ice Growth Trend Upwards

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The Global Environment and Marine Department of the Japanese Meteorological Agency recently corrected the long term trend in the annual mean sea ice extent in the Antarctic area: from 0.015 x 106 km2 per year to 0.019 x 106 km2 per year on 11 May 2018.

That’s more than a 25% adjustment (15,000 sq. km to 19,000 sq km). So while chunks the size of Manhattans may break off from time to time, about 300 Manhattans of new ice gets added annually.

The report notes that in the Antarctic Ocean: “the annual maximum and annual mean sea ice extents have shown a long-term trend of increase since 1979”.

The Japanese weather and climate site provided the following 2 charts showing sea ice extent for both the Arctic and Antarctic respectively since 1979. From them we see some interesting developments.

Arctic downward trend halted

Although the Arctic has seen a downward trend over the past 4 decades, we note that the mean Arctic sea ice cover has remained mostly steady over the past 11 years (since 2007). Moreover, Arctic and Greenland ice volume have piled up recently.

Sea ice extent (1979 -2017) in the Arctic Ocean

Sea ice extents are calculated from brightness temperature data provided by NASA and NSIDC (the National Snow and Ice Data Center). Image: JMA here.

Next we look at the Antarctic, which also reveals some interesting aspects.
Sea ice extent (1979 -2017) in the Antarctic Ocean

Image: JMA here.

Long-term increase “virtually certain”

Though the Antarctic dipped markedly over the past 4 years, the overall trend has been upward. In its commentary, the JMA states “it is virtually certain that there has been a long-term trend of increase in the annual maximum and annual mean sea ice extents in the Antarctic Ocean since 1979.”

Little change since 1980

When looking at the annual linear mean trend of both the Arctic and Antarctic and combine them, then we have a total annual mean of about 24.2 million square kilometers back in 1980.

And when we look at 2017, we see a combined mean amount of about 22.7 million square kilometers, which is about 1.5 million sq km less than 1980 – or roughly 7% less. This is within the range of natural variability.

Both the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation coincided in the late 20th and early 21st century to push global temperatures upwards, and thus contribute significantly to the decrease, yet only managing to reduce global mean sea ice area by some 7%.

All the talk of rapidly melting ice caps is more hysteria than reality.

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New Scientific Evidence Robustly Affirms Scandinavian Temperatures Were 3-4°C Warmer 9000 Years Ago

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Because trees may only grow within narrowly-defined temperature ranges and elevations above sea level, perhaps the most reliable means of assessing the air temperatures of past climates is to collect ancient treeline evidence.  In a new paper, Kullman (2018) found tree remnants at mountain sites 600 to 700 meters higher than where the modern treeline ends, strongly implying Early Holocene air temperatures in northern Sweden were 3-4°C warmer than recent decades.

Kullman, 2018

“The present paper reports results from an extensive project aiming at improved understanding of postglacial subalpine/alpine vegetation, treeline, glacier and climate history in the Scandes of northern Sweden. The main methodology is analyses of mega fossil tree remnants, i.e. trunks, roots and cones, recently exposed at the fringe of receding glaciers and snow/ice patches. This approach has a spatial resolution and accuracy, which exceeds any other option for tree cover reconstruction in high-altitude mountain landscapes.”
All recovered tree specimens originate from exceptionally high elevations, about 600-700 m atop of modern treeline positions.”
“Conservatively drawing on the latter figure and a summer temperature lapse rate of 0.6 °C per 100 m elevation (Laaksonen 1976), could a priori mean that, summer temperatures were at least 4.2 °C warmer than present around 9500 year before present. However, glacio-isostatic land uplift by at least 100 m since that time (Möller 1987; Påsse & Anderson 2005) implies that this figure has to be reduced to 3.6 °C higher than present-day levels, i.e. first decades of the 21st century. Evidently, this was the warmth peak of the Holocene, hitherto.”
“This inference concurs with paleoclimatic reconstructions from Europe and Greenland (Korhola et al. 2002; Bigler et al. 2003; Paus 2013; Luoto et al. 2014; Väliranta et al. 2015).”

New Paper: Greenland Ice Sheet 2-5°C Warmer With Much Lower Volume During The Early Holocene

Nielsen et al., 2018

The Holocene climatic optimum was a period 8–5 kyr ago when annual mean surface temperatures in Greenland were 2–3°C warmer than present-day values. … The initial mass loss in response to the temperature increase in the early Holocene is largest when forcing the ice sheet with the temperature and accumulation reconstructions from Gkinis and others (2014) (Experiment 5). In this simulation, temperature anomalies peak at more than 5°C above the present-day reference climate in the early Holocene and the ice sheet loses 20% of its volume in the 3000 years following the onset of the Holocene through increased surface melting.”

“The largest and most rapid retreat of the ice sheet was found for Experiment 5, which was forced by the temperature and accumulation reconstructions of Gkinis and others (2014). In this temperature reconstruction, temperature increases rapidly at the onset of the interglacial and has several shorter periods with temperatures more than 5°C above present in the early Holocene. .. Geological evidence suggests further that the ice-sheet margins in the southwest retreated up to 100 km behind their present-day position during the mid-Holocene (Funder and others, 2011). This evidence is further supported by interpretations of relative sea-level records and bedrock uplift rates that also point towards ice sheet retreat beyond the present ice volume in the mid-Holocene (Khan and others, 2008; Funder and others, 2011; Lecavalier and others, 2014).”
We find that the ice sheet retreats to a minimum volume of 0.15–1.2 m sea-level equivalent smaller than present in the early or mid-Holocene when forcing an ice-sheet model with temperature reconstructions that contain a climatic optimum, and that the ice sheet has continued to recover from this minimum up to present day.”

Graph Source: Nielsen et al., 2018 and Briner et al., 2016
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2018 TORNADO ACTIVITY NEAR RECORD LOW…Hurricane Season Looks To Be Weaker…Greenland Adds 600 Billion Tonnes Of Ice

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These are tough times for the US climate-ambulance chasers, who like to use every extreme-weather event as a God-sent sign the climate is going to hell in a handbasket.

Tornadoes AWOL, models contradicted

But even weather extremes aren’t cooperating with the climate predictions and models. For instance, yesterday meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell noted that US tornado activity is near a record low so far this year.

2018 US tornado activity is “well below normal” and “near a record low”. Chart: NWS.

And despite claims by some US alarmist agencies of record high global temperatures occurring year after year, tornado activity over the past decades has in fact been trending downward, and so stands in stark contrast to the media and climate alarmism hysteria of greater and more frequent weather extremes.

image

Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

Hurricane 2018 season looks dampened

Moreover a number of meteorologists are also hinting that the 2018 hurricane season could be weaker than normal, due to unusually cool tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures – especially off the west coast of Africa where many hurricanes are spawned.

For example at Twitter Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits recently commented how the sea surface temperature anomaly off the coast of West Africa was “brutal”.

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are extremely low off the coast of Africa, which may dampen the hurricane formation. Source: Tropical Tidbits.

Joe Bastardi also noted in his most recent Saturday Summary that the current pattern has been seen of and on before in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, and adds that “most of those seasons aren’t big hurricane seasons”.

When the Madden-Julian Oscillation enters phase 5 and 6 in June with cold sea surface temperatures off western Africa, it is indicative of lower accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the upcoming season, Bastardi suggests.

Currently Bastardi has his ACE projection at 65 to 85% of normal. The veteran meteorologist does warn, however, of “in-close” development, where storms can form not far off US coast. Indeed it’ll be interesting to see how the upcoming hurricane season pans out in comparison to last year’s, when conditions in the Atlantic were quite different.

Arctic “death spiral” in its death throes

And there’s more bad news for the climate ambulance chasers – at their beloved Arctic.

Japanese skeptic climate blogger Kirye (photo right) at Twitter recently tweeted that Arctic sea ice volume late this spring is at the 2nd highest level in 11 years!

As the Arctic has seen very warm surface temperatures over the past winter, the current elevated sea ice volume tells us that there’s much more behind the ice than surface temperatures. This is something we’ve been trying to tell alarmists for years.

Greenland adds 600 billion tonnes

Moreover, Greenland has added 600 billion tonnes of ice, Kirye shows.

So in summary, for the time-being climate alarmists will have to content themselves with insignificant weather anecdotes to keep their alarmism and climate quackery alive.

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