November Wind Slump Has Led To A Strained Energy Supply In Germany...Bottlenecks Threaten

November Wind Slump Has Led To A Strained Energy Supply In Germany…Bottlenecks Threaten

Over-reliance on wind and sun…

Citing montelnews, Blackout News here reports on the recent wind power slump experienced in Germany – due to stagnant weather conditions.

This winter’s energy supply for Germany looks bleak as experts warn of windless, sunless days ahead. Image: P. Gosselin 

Wind power generation, dropped to its lowest level since 2014 and oil power generation increased to its highest level in four weeks, reaching 700 MW.

The wind lull highlights the vulnerabilities posed by relying too much on wind and solar energy, especially in the wintertime when Germany sees very little sunshine while occasionally getting periods of little wind in times of high energy demand.

Electricity prices soared to 800 EUR/MWh.

The lack of wind power last week led to a tighter energy market in Europe, particularly in central and northern regions and caused a surge in electricity prices, especially in short-term markets. Prices reached a two-year high, exceeding 800 EUR/MWh!

As a result, there’s growing concern about the potential for similar price spikes in winter if wind conditions remain weak. Germany’s economy has been battered for years by its dubious energy policies adopted by its previous governments over the past 25 years.

Fear of supply bottlenecks 

Experts warn that wind power production is expected to be very low in the coming months, thus posing a threat of energy supply bottlenecks. As temperatures fall, energy demand, especially in France, is expected to rise significantly.

France can help only so much

France’s nuclear capacity can’t fully compensate for low wind power due to dependence on weather conditions. Germany has reduced its conventional power generation capacity by shutting down coal and nuclear plants and relies heavily on weather dependent power generation.

The implication for the coming winter is that Germany’s energy market faces a difficult period due to the combination of low supply and potentially high demand.

There’s a risk of energy shortages and rising prices in the coming months.





New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth’s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent

“[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% – 5%. Human CO2 emissions represent 4% of the total, which means that the total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20% – a negligible effect.” – Dr. Demetris Koutsoyiannis (2024)

New research exposes the vacuousness of the “imaginary world” models proclaiming CO2 the dominant regulator of the Earth’s climate.

A CO2-less or CO2-only atmosphere…an imaginary-world thought experiment

An oft-heard claim is that, due to the prominence of CO2 as the Earth’s climate “control knob” (see Lacis et al., 2010), the greenhouse effect could not exist – indeed, it would collapse – if there was no CO2 in the atmosphere.

Image Source: Lacis et al., 2010 and Schmidt et al., 2006

However, it should go without saying that this CO2-less atmospheric condition itself is an imaginary-world conceptualization. Thus, fantasizing about what would happen if the atmosphere was comprised 0 ppm CO2, 1,000,000 ppm CO2, 0 ppm water vapor…are all just untestable, never-observable thought experiments. They cannot be subjected to the scientific method. Thus, they are unfalsifiable.

CO2’s climate effects are undetectable

Of course, this very unfalsifiable thought experiment is what believers in the CO2-is-the-climate-control-knob narrative rest their case on. But even if we do use this imaginary-world premise, the existing models (MODTRAN, HITRAN) that allegedly support the CO2-controls-climate orthodoxy actually undermine it.

For example, as Dr. Koutsoyiannis points out in his extensively-referenced paper, the MODTRAN data show that the Earth’s temperature remains at the default greenhouse-effect value if the water vapor scale is adjusted upwards slightly, by just 30%. The greenhouse effect does not “collapse” as claimed by Lacis et al. disciples – the control-knob believers.

The HITRAN database also indicates the imaginary-world condition of doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm would only alter the radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere by -1.1%, a hypothetical realization that could not even be detected in future macroscopic measurements (if the atmosphere ever were to reach a CO2 concentration of 800 ppm).

MODTRAN models further affirm that (1) there is only a 1% temperature difference between either doubling (800 ppm) or halving (200 ppm) the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and (2) the change in the downwelling radiation resulting from an increase from 300 ppm (1900) to 420 ppm (2023) is only 0.5%. These tiny changes “could not be discerned by observations.”

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2024

CO2 has not been detectably reducing the outgoing longwave radiation

As a “control knob” for the climate, CO2 is believed to be the principal reason why the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) should be reducing (Dewitte and Clerbaux, 2018).

“…the increase of Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) primarily CO2 reduces the OLR”

However, despite the increase in CO2 concentration in recent decades, OLR has been increasing. Any reduction in OLR from the CO2 effect is not detectable.

Image Source: Dewitte and Clerbaux, 2018

Likewise, the MODTRAN clear-sky results (i.e., an atmosphere where no clouds exist and CO2 and water vapor are the main greenhouse effect agents) show OLR has increased by +0.38 to +0.60 W/m² from 2001 to 2022, consistent with the increase in temperature.

According to the data reviewed by Dr. Koutsoyiannis, any record of decrease in OLR “can hardly be attributed to increased CO2, but it can be related to water vapor and cloud profiles,” as the “effect of CO2 is trumped by the effect of clouds, which is consistent with the major role of water on climate and the minor one of CO2.”

95% of the greenhouse effect (downwelling radiation) is from water vapor, clouds

Per the MODTRAN calculations, CO2’s contribution to the planetary greenhouse effect is only 4% to 5%, and the contribution from water vapor and clouds is 87% (outgoing radiation) to 95% (downwelling radiation). The CO2 contribution to greenhouse effect changes over the last century, as CO2 increased from 300 ppm to 420 ppm, is only about 0.5%. This quantified percentage is “below any threshold to make it observable.”

Worse, when we consider that human CO2 emissions are only 4% of Earth’s total CO2 emissions, and that the CO2 contribution to the greenhouse effect is just 4% to 5%, “the total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20%.”

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2024

Supporting evidence for CO2’s negligible role

Another set of sources supporting the contention that CO2’s greenhouse effect contribution is only 4% to 5% comes from the notorious Trenberth radiation budget charts. First, notice the 333 W/m² value identified for downwelling radiation from greenhouse gases (lower right).

Image Source: Trenberth and Fasullo, 2011

Now consider the estimated greenhouse effect (downwelling radiation) contribution from CO2 alone as shown in  Schmithüsen et al., 2015.

Notice it ranges from about 0 W/m² (or less) near the poles, about 10-15 W/m² at mid-high latitudes, and about 25 W/m² around the tropics. Averaged over the globe, it would appear the total mean CO2 greenhouse effect contribution is about 13 to 15 W/m². If CO2 indeed accounts for ~14 W/m² of the 333 W/m² downwelling radiation from greenhouse gases, its contribution is 4.2%. The other ~95%, or ~320 W/m², is necessarily from water vapor and cloud.

Image Source: Schmithüsen et al., 2015

As shown in the Koutsoyiannis review of results from HITRAN database, a doubling of CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm only produces a ~1.1% perturbation to the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere (3 W/m²), which is not discernible. This is consistent with Chen et al. (2024), who assess that a doubling of CO2 produces a negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing (-1 W/m²), and a positive TOA forcing of just +2-3 W/m² in the mid-high latitudes and tropics.

These papers further establish the negligible role of CO2 in the Earth’s greenhouse effect.

Image Source: Chen et al., 2024

Green Blues…As Fog Persists For Days In Germany, Green Energy Output Falls To Near Zero!

At 5 p.m. last Wednesday, Germany’s 1602 offshore wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas stood still…solar output was also near zero. Germany had to scramble to keep supply going. 

The enemy of green energy: the high pressure system

By

In the words of Professor Claudia Kemfert: It is a myth to believe that solar and wind do not provide enough electricity. The myth that there will be enough wind and sunshine somewhere in Europe was shattered at the beginning of November 2024. Daniel Wetzel describes the situation in the online Die Welt (pay article)

At 5 p.m. on Wednesday, solar power was only supplying a single megawatt hour. The 1602 offshore wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas – each one the size of the Eiffel Tower – were at a complete standstill. Zero electricity production.

The onshore wind turbines produced only 114 megawatt hours at that hour, with German electricity consumption at 63,000 megawatt hours. Transmission system operator Amprion described the situation on the LinkedIn web portal on Thursday: ‘The minimum feed-in from wind and PV was just around 100 megawatts in total (in the period from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m.).’

This means that the 87,000 megawatts of photovoltaic capacity and around 72,000 megawatts of wind power installed in Germany with triple-digit billion-euro subsidies were virtually unused for hours on end. There was no danger to the power supply, it was said. ‘No sun, no wind – yesterday and today there was a dark doldrums in Germany,’ explained Amprion on Thursday: ‘But our system management had everything under control.'”

Without the fossil power producers and foreign countries, things would have looked bad. A situation that was to be expected – but was consistently smiled away. Instead, graphics of the annual cycle were waved around to show that sun and wind would complement each other perfectly.

The fatal thing about the situation is the prices. Fossil power generation has been made politically more expensive and in times of shortage, prices really go through the roof. Die Welt added:

The peak prices of the past week are possibly just a harbinger of what is to be expected in the coming winter. The expert agency “Montel” quotes energy market experts who expect price peaks of 1000 euros per megawatt hour in the event of further wind lulls. This is because in times of low wind power production, increasingly expensive gas-fired power plants have to step in, which then define the market price level.

Traders interviewed by “Montel” also referred to the German nuclear and coal phase-out, which has reduced the base load-capable power plant capacity that can produce regardless of the weather. The imminent onset of the autumn and winter cold in Europe is also likely to drive up prices. This is because France in particular will then see a sharp increase in its own consumption, as many heating systems in the country are powered by electricity. The surge in demand for electricity in France is likely to further increase the relative shortage on the European Power Exchange and thus drive up prices.”

 

New Paper: Wave Height, Storm Surge Changes Over Past 30 Years Too Small For Measurable Impact!

The paper appearing in Nature “An assessment of whether long-term global changes in waves and storm surges have impacted global coastlines” emerges with good news: The coasts of the world’s oceans are stable.

Al Gore doesn’t have to worry about his beachfront home. 

Germany’s European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here presents its newest video (in Germany) that features the recent study on sea level rise and its impact with respect to significant wave heights, storm surges and coastlines.

From: An assessment of whether long-term global changes in waves and storm surges have impacted global coastlines

According to the authors of the Nature publication, there’s limited evidence for wave and storm surge impact on long-term shoreline change and the available datasets do not show a clear correlation between long-term shoreline change and changes in wave and storm surge over the past three decades.

Moreover, there have been minimal changes in significant wave height and storm surge over the past 30 years, and they are likely too small to have a measurable impact on sandy shorelines.

Other factors such as sea level rise, terrestrial sediment sources, alongshore sediment transport, fluvial sediment loads, land reclamation, and local sediment sinks/sources can significantly impact shoreline position, and thus may mask any clear relationship between wave/surge forcing and shoreline response over the past 30 years.

In essence, while wave and storm surge can influence coastal erosion, the available data does not provide conclusive evidence of their significant impact on long-term shoreline change over the past three decades.

Other factors seem to play a more dominant role.





New Study: Antarctic Sea Ice Has Been Increasing Since The 1970s…Due To Internal Decadal Variability

“Since the late 1970s, Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) has slowly increased, despite significant global warming. The increase in Antarctic SIA occurred largely between 2000 and 2014.” – Bonan et al., 2024

Scientists attribute the long-term (1979-2022) expanding Antarctic sea ice trend, as well as the abrupt decline in sea ice extent from 2016 to 2019, to natural factors such as:

a) decadal variability

b) internal climate variability

c) intrinsic variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

d) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

e) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

f) ocean preconditioning

g) weakened circumpolar westerlies

h) zonal atmospheric wave structures

i) surface wind variability

j) Pacific decadal variability

k) Atlantic multi-decadal variability

The authors acknowledge that a “unified understanding of how each process manifests spatially and temporally in the observational record is lacking.”

On the other hand, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are not considered as a contributing factor in 45 years of Antarctic sea ice expansion or decline.


Image Source: Bonan et al., 2024

Election Day… Get Out And Vote! No Excuses!

My recommendation, of course, is: vote for Trump (JD, Elon, RFK Jr., Tulsi)!

Source: GOP.com

Keep in mind there’s a lot of political hyperbole out there coming from both sides. And you should see the rubbish being told by the press here in Europe! The press is losing it. It’s hilarious if you want to know the truth.

Like every election, each candidate claims that this is the most important election ever. And, unless you vote for him/her, the country will go up in flames soon! That’s a lot of hype. Things may be bad, but they aren’t that bad.

Even if Harris wins, the GOP is poised to take the Senate. This means Harris would be a lame duck right from the start. She’ll be hidden away, refusing to do press conferences, her arms, legs and mouth tied to strings pulled by her puppet masters – we’ve seen it all the past 3.5 years. Like with Biden, it’ll never succeed.

Moreover, there’s a lot of power in the opposition side as well. The Democrats might try to censure and suppress the opposition, but this would only further confirm what they are really about. It’ll never work.

Whatever happens, remember that accepting the true election results – whether you like them or not – is the very foundation of our democracy. It’s the refusal to accept them that is the threat to democracy. 

Go out and vote, and Godspeed!

New Study Finds Arctic Warming, Declining Sea Ice May Be A ‘Benefit’ To Polar Bears And Ringed Seals

The polar bear plight has quietly disappeared from the catastrophic global warming narrative.

According to new research, the body condition of polar bears and ringed seals (their prey) has been stable to improving from 2008-2022 despite Arctic warming and sea ice decline during this period.

This is the opposite of what was predicted to happen, as it has been assumed intact sea ice is essential to polar bear health and survival.

“…polar bear body condition and recruitment during 2018-2022 were largely within or above observed annual means during 2008-2017.”

“A lack of trend in environmental and ecological variables or polar bear body condition…during 2008-2022 is suggestive that the Chukchi Sea polar bear population was likely stable during this time.”

“Studies in both the Chukchi Sea and adjacent southern Beaufort Sea have shown improved ringed seal body condition and pup production following and during years with lower spring or summer sea ice cover, earlier sea ice breakup, or thinner ice.”

“…an increase in the duration of open water during the summer and the associated increase in ocean productivity with warming may benefit polar bear prey species.”

Image Source: Rode et al., 2024

Will The USA Make History On November 5th By Electing Its First Female President?

A bit off topic today…

It shouldn’t be any mystery as to which candidate this site is endorsing, given their known respective positions on topics like climate change, energy policy, economics, liberty, war, free speech, healthcare, crime and other crucial social issues.

That aside, the USA could make history in the days ahead should it elect its first ever female president. 

Females in power over the course of history, though more the exception, is nothing new. In the ancient World, Hatshepsut was the first female pharaoh of ancient Egypt, ruling during the 18th Dynasty. Cleopatra VII w as the last active ruler of the Ptolemaic Kingdom of Egypt. 

During the Medieval Period, the world saw powerful female leaders like Elizabeth I, the Queen of England and Ireland. She is often considered one of the most successful monarchs in English history.

In modern times we’ve also seen politically successful and powerful females in power: What follows is a list of some notable countries.

India:      

Indira Gandhi served as the Prime Minister of India from 1966 to 1977 and again from 1980 until her assassination in 1984. She is the most powerful and influential woman in Indian history.

Israel:          

Golda Meir served as Prime Minister of Israel from 1969 to 1974.

Turkey:

Tansu Çiller served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 1993 to 1996.

Germany:    

Angela Merkel served as the eighth chancellor of Germany from 2005 to 2021. She was the first woman to hold that office.

Great Britain:          

This country has had 3 female leaders so far: Margaret Thatcher (The Iron Lady), Theresa May, and Liz Truss.

Italy:           

Giorgia Meloni has been serving as the prime minister of Italy since October 2022, the first woman to hold this position.

Liberia:       

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was the first female president in Africa. She served as the 24th president of Liberia from 2006 to 2018.

Canada:

Kim Campbell served as the 19th prime minister of Canada from June 25 to November 4, 1993.

Sweden:

Magdalena Andersson took the office of Prime Minister on 30 November 2021 as Sweden’s first female prime minister.

New Zealand:           

Jacinda Ardern served as the 40th prime minister of New Zealand from 2017 to 2023.

I hate to say it, but the USA has been a real laggard in when it comes to electing a female as president. Yet, that could all end on Tuesday (like it or not).





Climate Researchers Warn: Warmer Climate Could Lead To “Cold Waves Across Northern Europe”!

In a recent open letter, researchers warned that a warmer Arctic could lead to cold waves across Northern Europe – due to “complex feedback mechanisms”.

According to Forschung & Wissen here, an international group of renowned scientists recently published an open letter (PDF) stating that the melting of ice in the Arctic could disrupt ocean currents in the Atlantic, and thus have “devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world.”

Source: Open Letter by Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers

According to their publication in the journal Nature Communications, October 2024, doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53401-3, melting of sea ice during the last interglacial significantly impacted the density and salinity of seawater, and thus led to significant changes in ocean currents and heat distribution in the oceans.

The researchers looked at sediment cores collected in the North Sea and reconstructed surface temperatures and salinity and found that these processes have led to a significant drop in temperature in northern Europe.

According to Mohamed Ezat: “Our discovery that the increased melting of Arctic sea ice in the Earth’s past probably led to significant cooling in northern Europe is alarming.”

He adds:  “The impacts particularly on Nordic Countries would likely be catastrophic, including major cooling in the region while surrounding regions warm.  This would be an enlargement and deepening of the ‘cold blob’ that already has developed over the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and likely lead to unprecedented extreme weather.”





Robust Beach Ridge Evidence Indicates Mid Holocene Sea Levels Were 1-5 Meters Higher Than Today

Three new studies use evidence from elevated beach ridges to assess sea levels were 3-5 m higher than today near Thailand, 1-1.5 m higher near Australia, 2-5 m higher along the North Sea just a few millennia ago.

The higher sea levels in the tropical regions (Australia, Gulf of Thailand) were “primarily driven by eustatic processes,” not a result of vertical land motions.

This means the Mid to Late Holocene highstands were mostly a consequence of the larger volume of water in ocean basins at that time relative to today, when there is more water locked up on land as ice.

Terry et al., 2024 (Gulf of Thailand)

At an elevation of 3.3–5.3 m above modern sea level, the sequence is interpreted to represent a Holocene raised beach. The unlithified sediments comprise rounded quartz and mylonite pebbles and cobbles, oriented predominantly NE–SW, supported by fossiliferous sands that are rich in marine shells, coral fragments and occasional terrestrial gastropods. The juxtaposition of the marine and non-marine gastropoda of contemporaneous ages mC14 and OSL age-dating of shell material and mineral sands suggest the raised (storm) beach formed between 3.5 and 4.0 ka BP, i.e. 2.5–3.0 ka after the MHH peak, at a height of 1.3–3.3 m above the local RSL position at that time (according to glacial isostatic adjustment modelling). Given the otherwise paucity of data from the upper GoT, the Ko Khang Khao raised beach provides nakes a compelling story for a coastal storm deposit, thrown up either by a winter monsoon storm, or by a palaeotyphoon that managed to penetrate the upper Gulf. Overlapping results of ew information that expands our current understanding of geographical variations in RSL across Southeast Asia during the Late Holocene.”

 Image Source: Terry et al., 2024

Kennedy et al., 2024 (Australia)

Holocene sea-level in Victoria is considered to be primarily driven by eustatic processes and is most likely similar to that of eastern Australia broadly (Bryant, 1992; Kennedy et al., 2020b; Lewis et al., 2013). A maximum elevation during the Holocene occurred at around +1.0–1.5 m 6000–6500 calibrated years ago (cal BP) has been suggested based on dating of raised notches (Cape Liptrap; Baker et al., 2001; Gardner et al., 2009) and estuarine sediments (Anglesea; Kennedy et al., 2021) in southern Victoria  … As the estuary closely tracked sea level during the mid-Holocene it can therefore be used to provide further indication on the spatial extent of the maximum sea level elevation recorded elsewhere in eastern Australia (Lewis et al., 2013) and on the other side of the Tasman Sea (Clement et al., 2016; Kennedy, 2008; Kennedy et al., 2022) during this period. Evidence for a mid-Holocene sea level highstand along the open coast of Victoria, southern Australia, has generally been scant. Fixed biological indicators at Cape Liptrap (165 km east-south-east) suggest a higher sea level of 1.5 m at around 5.5–5.0 ka (Gardner et al., 2009; Haworth et al., 2002), while at Anglesea elevated estuarine shells at +1.14 m date at 6704–6381 cal BP (Kennedy et al., 2021; Figure 9). As the average elevation of the infilled part of the estuary is +2.34 ± 0.51 m and composed of estuarine sediments this further suggests deposition during a period of higher sea level. Combined with the shallowest age (1 m from the surface, +1.021 m above MSL) within Aireys/Painkalac of 6930–6440 year cal BP being very similar to that of Anglesea provides further evidence that a period of higher sea level during the mid-Holocene occurs along the south east coast of Australia.”

Image Source: Kennedy et al., 2024

Freiesleben et al., 2024 (North Sea)

“The postglacial sea-level history in the Limfjord area is based on radiocarbon dating of terrestrial-to-marine transitions in sediment cores, and mollusc shells in raised marine deposits showing a rapid sea-level rise in the Early Holocene (Petersen 1979; Bennike et al. 2019; Jessen et al. 2019) followed by a Middle Holocene peak in sea level 2–5 m higher than present as documented by the raised beach ridges and Littorina shorelines (Mertz 1924).”

Image Source: Freiesleben et al., 2024

Don’t Feel Sorry For VW… Liberal Arts College Dropout, Anti-Auto-Activist On Supervisory Board!

After its politically driven foray into electric vehicles, Volkswagen is facing significant financial challenges…plans to close at least three of its German factories…unprecedented move in the company’s history…. tens of thousands of jobs will be lost!

Anti-auto green party activist, liberal arts college-dropout on the supervisory board! 

The news for VW is real bad, and now the powerful IG Metall engineering and metal workers’ union is already hinting at strikes to prevent the cuts. Additionally, the company is looking to cut more than $4.3 billion in costs

Hat-tip: Aktienmitkopf.

Misguided foray into electric vehicles

But don’t start feeling sorry for VW. The problems are largely self-made by incompetent managers and politicians.

Firstly, the German state of Lower Saxony, where VW is headquartered in Wolfsburg, owns approximately 20% of Volkswagen. Then, secondly, in the late 2010s, VW began its earnest push into electric vehicle production with the introduction of its ID family of electric cars. The increased focus on electric vehicles was largely politically driven by factors like increasingly stringent emissions standards and overly optimistic future demand for electric vehicles.

EV car sales stall, plant closure

However, VW electric vehicle sales have since taken a turn for the worst. EVs aren’t popular in Germany. Their sales in the first half of 2024 were approximately 317,200 units worldwide, lower than the same period in 2023 (321,600 EVs). The future of EV sales now looks bleak: Volkswagen just announced the closure of its Audi Brussels plant in Belgium, which primarily produces electric vehicles. This decision comes due to lower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles and is expected to take effect in February 2025.

Green Party anti-auto activist, college dropout on VW supervisory board!

And if you think VW being owned by a green-leaning state is already problematic for the management of the company, take a look at who sits on the company’s supervisory board: Julia Willie Hamburg, a German politician from Alliance 90/The Greens, Ms. Hamburg also serves as the Deputy Minister-President of Lower Saxony and the State Minister for Education and Culture.

Now let’s look at her qualifications: According to her resume, Ms. Hamburg was educated in Hanover where she studied political science, German philology, and then studied philosophy at the University of Göttingen.

She dropped out of all her studies without a degree. Moreover, she’s an anti-car activist who travels by bicycle. She has neither industrial management experience, financial expertise nor an inkling of automotive engineering. That folks, is one of the top executives at VW. No joke!

So, don’t be surprised if VW gets its clock cleaned by the competition over the next few years.





Dortmund Germany Delays Transition To Electric Buses Due To High Costs, Will Purchase Diesel Buses

The hype about green energies being the future is quickly becoming a thing of the past as all the Utopian promises made are not coming true as they clash against reality. 

The green movement is turning out to be nothing but a silly wet-dream LSD fantasy. 

The city of Dortmund, Germany is finding out that electric buses are significantly more expensive than diesel buses, even with government subsidies, reports Blackout News here.

Ordering more diesel buses

Due to the high costs, DSW21, a German transit company, is now delaying the full transition to an electric fleet and plans to continue purchasing some diesel buses alongside electric ones.

The plan was to replace the diesel buses with electric vehicles and to operate a largely emission-free fleet by 2035, but that’s looking extremely unlikely.

Diesel buses half the price of an electric bus

Blackout News reports that costs of switching to electric buses are almost impossible to manage without state funding. A diesel bus only costs around 400,000 euros, whereas an electric bus costs around 800,000 euros. This makes the switch to electric vehicles expensive even with government subsidies. “Without financial support from the German government, replacing the remaining 155 diesel buses with electric vehicles would cost around 140 million euros. That is almost three times as expensive as purchasing new diesel buses.”

Will never meet the 2035 climate target

Government subsidies for electric buses are decreasing, thus making the transition the transition over to an electric bus fleet even more challenging.

The EU directives are phasing out diesel powered buses and by 2035 only emission-free vehicles may then be used. That target is now in jeopardy as the government scales back subsidies.

Vehicle lifetime costs likely an even bigger obstacle

The other problem that gets ignored, and is not mentioned in the article, is the maintenance and service costs of the buses. Diesel buses are cheap, reliable and can run for many years. Electric buses, on the other hand, require massive batteries, which are exorbitantly expensive. And what value does a 7-year old electric bus have?

Potential folly

Blackout News sums up: “The long-term conversion to a zero-emission fleet will be significantly delayed if no further subsidies are made available. The decision to buy diesel buses again shows how much the industry is dependent on financial support in order to achieve the climate targets.”

Electric buses are increasingly appearing to be another costly green misadventure, and possibly a complete folly if policymakers refuse to wake up.





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