Scientists Find Western Pacific Cyclone Genesis HAS DECREASED Since 1977!

By on 21. October 2018

A new paper authored by Hu et al appearing in the journal Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans finds that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1960–2014 shows a step-by-step decrease and is linked to natural oceanic cycles, namely to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).

Hat-tip: Mary Brown

Sea surface temperature “cannot explain”

The authors found that vertical wind shear especially the zonal wind shear plays a critical role, while other parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), vertical velocity, divergence, humidity and maximum potential intensity cannot explain the step-by-step decrease of tropical cyclone genesis frequency.

A further diagnosis shows that the interdecadal change of vertical wind shear is caused by sea surface temperature and associated rainfall pattern changes across the Indo-Pacific Ocean.

A stronger warming in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific from 1960–1976 to 1977–1998 led to enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and thus strengthened vertical shear over the key tropical cyclone genesis region in the WNP.

A La Nina-like sea surface temperature pattern change from 1977–1998 to 1999–2014 led to a strengthened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific, which further enhanced the vertical shear and decreased tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the WNP.

No consensus

In the paper’s introduction the authors write that elements behind the changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity is a hotly debated topic and that the objective of the current study was to investigate tropical cyclone activity change in the recent years and the cause of it.

The authors have shown that the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) had two obvious shifts since 1960 (Hartmann and Wendler, 2005, Lyon et al., 2013). One happened around 1976/77 and the other around 1998/99.

The authors plotted the evolution of total typhoon (with maximum wind speed exceeding 32.7m/s) frequencies in the WNP since 1977  and TC landfalls on China since 1960 (see the paper’s Fig. 9, Fig. 10; below).

Total number of typhoons during June-October from 1977 to 2014 in the WNP (black line). The red line represents interdecadal variation with an 8-year low-pass filter. The purple dashed line is the average of the red line in two periods based on the IPO phase shifts as divided by the vertical orange lines. Source: Hu et al 2018

 Total number of TC landfalls on China during June-October from 1960 to 2014 (black line). The red line represents interdecadal variation with an 8-year low-pass filter. The purple dashed line is the average of the red line in three periods based on the IPO phase shifts as divided by the vertical orange lines. Source: Hu et al 2018

The authors say that it is interesting to note that the typhoon frequency decreases significantly from ID2 (1977–1998; Typhoon number is 11) to ID3 (1999–2014; Typhoon number is 10).

As for the TC landfalls on China, the average numbers for the three periods are 8.6, 7.8 and 7.6 respectively. The decrease from ID1 to ID2 is statistically significant, passing a 95% confidence level, while the decrease from ID2 to ID3 is not significant.

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Syria War Has Little To Do With Manmade Climate Change, Recent Publications Show

By on 20. October 2018

Climate change as the main cause of the Syria War remains unconfirmed

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/ edited by P Gosselin)

Again and again activist climate scientists claim the Syria war and the associated wave of refugees are a consequence of climate change. But they do not provide proof, and so it remains a claim.

Claim is unconfirmed

Tobias Ide from the Brauschweiger Georg Eckert Institute for International Textbook Research has reviewed the arguments and reaches the conclusion that climate change as the main cause is still unconfirmed. In this respect, all claims to the contrary are on shaky ground.

Here’s the abstract:

Climate War in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian Civil War and the State of Climate-Conflict Research
This article reviews existing evidence for a climate-conflict link in Syria and examines how the respective debate reproduces three important shortcomings of climate-conflict research. The potential climate-conflict link for Syria can be conceived of as a four-stage process, with various levels of scientific evidence and consensus existing for each stage: (1) climate change inducing the heavy 2006–2009 drought (plausible, but not proven); (2) massive loss of agricultural livelihoods, significantly attributable to the drought (supported by a majority of studies, but contested); (3) massive rural-to-urban migration triggered by livelihood loss in combination with other factors (supported by a majority of studies, but contested); and (4) migration intensifying existing grievances and facilitating the onset of protests and the subsequent civil war (possible, but little knowledge exists). The debate about the Syrian case reproduces three important shortcomings of climate-conflict research: limited dialogue between different methods, an overstatement of differences, and a lack of theoretical engagement. These shortcomings also have adverse impacts in terms of policy advice.

The paper’s conclusion states:

This article firstly reviewed the available literature on climate change and the onset of civil war in Syria in 2011 while considering four stages of a purported causal link: climate change to drought, drought to livelihood loss, livelihood loss to migration, and migration to conflict. Although Syria faced a multi-decadal drying trend and the 2006–2009 drought was unusually severe, comprehensive evidence through attribution studies of a (probabilistic) link to climate change is still lacking. Whether the drought was a relevant cause of rural livelihood loss and whether this livelihood loss facilitated a significant migration to urban areas remains contested, although the majority of studies support these claims. Currently, we know little about whether, and if so how, this migration contributed to the onset of the anti-regime protests in 2011 and the associated civil war.”

Drought natural, completely “recurring phenomenon”

It would also have been nice if Ide had taken the natural climate variability of the last 2,000 years into account. Even if the drought years 2006-2009 had been a co-trigger, in the climate-historical context it is a completely recurring phenomenon.

Look at the column on the far right in the figure below. It depicts the change in rainfall over the past 4000 years in the Eastern Mediterranean. Peaks to the left indicate drought phases:

Figure: The right-hand column shows the change in rainfall over the past 4000 years in the Eastern Mediterranean (offshore Israel). Source: Martin-Puertas et al. 2010. Daten Israel: Schilman et al 2001 (Geology, Palaeo3).   

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The Widespread Social And Environmental Destruction Behind Electric Car Batteries And E-Mobility

By on 19. October 2018

German ZDF public television recently broadcast a report showing how electric cars are a far cry from being what they are all cracked up to be by green activists.

Northern Chilean desert being ruined by widespread lithium mining. Image cropped from ZDF documentary: Die Schattenseiten der E-Mobilität

The report titled: “Batteries in twilight – The dark side of e-mobility” shows how the mining of raw materials needed for producing the massive automobile batteries is highly destructive to the environment. For example, two thirds of the cobalt currently comes from the Congo, where the mining rights have been acquired by China. Other materials needed include manganese, lithium and graphite.

Every electric car battery needs about 20 – 30 kg of lithium.

The mining of the raw materials often takes place in third world countries where workers are forced to work under horrendous conditions and no regard is given to protecting the environment. When it comes to “going green”, it seems everything flies out the window.

Immense water consumption

The report shows that one source of the lithium is the desert of northern Chile. Everyday at the mine shown some 21 million liters of ground water get pumped to the surface, where it evaporates and a sludge with 6% lithium content gets shipped to processing plants. The operations are transforming the Chilean desert landscape into a vast industrial wasteland.

Precious vegetation shriveling up

The Chilean lithium mining operations are pumping out what little precious groundwater that remains and ruining the living basis of the local population. What little vegetation there was to begin with is now dying due to falling water tables. Overall, mining operations are expected to expand four-fold within the next decade and the mining companies profit while the local citizens lose their livelihoods.

Car companies turning a blind eye

The automotive companies, the buyers of the lithium batteries insist that they have strict requirements in the sourcing of their products and make sure it is done in a sustainable way. Obviously they are having little effect.

Congolese slave labor for China

Today’s batteries for e-cars also require approx. 10 – 15 kg of cobalt, where two thirds of which comes from authoritarian Republic of the Congo. The mining rights are owned by Chinese companies. Here as well the benefits of the mining operations do not find their way to the local residents, who are forced live under horrendous conditions.

Privately operated local companies are not allowed, unless the authorities are paid bribes to look the other way. In these rogue operations, work conditions are primitive and extremely dangerous. The ZDF reports that some 20% of Congolese cobalt is extracted in this manner. Profits do not find their way down to the miners.

Child labor

Meanwhile the ground around the mining villages are now perforated with vertical shafts that pose a constant danger to children who risk falling into them. Work conditions for the miners themselves is extremely dangerous. The money they earn is not enough to provide for their families. Children are forced to work and do not go to school.

Chinese companies control most of the lithium supply chain, ZDF reports, and miners are cheated by them. The valuable raw material makes its way to China, where it gets processed for the manufacture electric batteries, according to Dr. Mathias John of Amnesty International. Congolese cobalt likely is contained in the car batteries of German electric cars.

German automakers such as Mercedes insist that they make effort to ensure that their supply chains “exclusively process cobalt from industrial mines that have the proper sustainability standards.”

As electric cars begin to flood global markets, the environmental and social destruction of third world countries where the precious minerals are mined will reach ghastly proportions. The promised green utopia will remain a an illusion.

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New Science: Arctic AND Antarctic Sea Ice More Extensive Today Than Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years

By on 18. October 2018

It is often claimed that modern day sea ice changes are “unprecedented”, alarming, and well outside the range of natural variability.  Yet scientists are increasingly finding that biomarker proxies used to reconstruct both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice conditions since the Early Holocene reveal that today’s sea ice changes are not only not unusual, there is more extensive Arctic and Antarctic sea ice during recent decades than there has been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

In the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, the sea surface temperatures have been cooling since 1979.

Image Source: Jones et al., 2016

Image Source: Fan et al., 2014
Purich et al., 2018     “Observed Southern Ocean changes over recent decades include a surface freshening (Durack and Wijffels 2010; Durack et al. 2012; de Lavergne et al. 2014), surface cooling (Fan et al. 2014; Marshall et al. 2014; Armour et al. 2016; Purich et al. 2016a) and circumpolar increase in Antarctic sea ice (Cavalieri and Parkinson 2008; Comiso and Nishio 2008; Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012).”

Image Source: Purich et al., 2018

The decline in Southern Ocean temperatures has coincided with an increase in Antarctic sea extent since 1979.

Image Source: Jones et al., 2016
Comiso et al., 2017     “The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. … [T]he trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature [cooling].”

Image Source: Comiso et al., 2017

In contrast to the post-1970s cooling and sea ice advance, Antarctica warmed and sea ice declined during the 1950s to 1980s.

Antarctica warming rapidly, 1950s-1980s

IPCC (2001):    “Another analysis of a 21-station data set from Antarctica by Comiso (1999) found a warming trend equivalent to 1.25°C per century for a 45-year record beginning in the 1950s but a slight cooling trend from 1979 to 1998. The slight cooling trend for this later 20-year period also was confirmed via analysis of surface temperatures over the whole continent, as inferred from satellite data.”
Fan et al., 2014:  “[S]ea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures decreased during 1979–2011, consistent with the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctica warmed during 1950–1978.”

Declining Antarctic sea ice concentrations, 1950s-1980s

Sinclair et al., 2014     “We present the first proxy record of sea-ice area (SIA) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, from a 130 year coastal ice-core record. High-resolution deuterium excess data show prevailing stable SIA [sea ice area] from the 1880s until the 1950s, a 2–5% reduction from the mid-1950s to the early-1990s, and a 5% increase after 1993.”
Miles et al., 2013     “Despite large fluctuations between glaciers—linked to their size—three epochal patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010.  … Indeed, several studies report increasing sea-ice concentrations in the study region from approximately 1980 to 2010, which is consistent with the predominance of glacier advance since 1990, when above-average sea-ice and fast-ice concentrations could have suppressed calving by increasing back-pressure on glacier termini. In contrast, reduced sea ice concentrations from the 1950s to the mid 1970s are consistent with glacier retreat during the 1960s and 1970s, when air temperatures were also increasing along the Pacific coast.”

Antarctic sea ice conditions were similar to today’s during 1897-1917.

Edinburgh and Day, 2016     “In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend … This comparison shows that the summer sea ice edge was between 1.0 and 1.7° further north in the Weddell Sea during this period but that ice conditions were surprisingly comparable to the present day [during 1897-1917] in other sectors.”
(press release)     “We know that sea ice in the Antarctic has increased slightly over the past 30 years, since satellite observations began. Scientists have been grappling to understand this trend in the context of global warming, but these new findings suggest it may not be anything new. … The new study published in The Cryosphere is the first to shed light on sea ice extent in the period prior to the 1930s, and suggests the [sea ice] levels in the early 1900s were in fact similar to today“

New paper finds Antarctic (Peninsula) sea ice more extensive today than possibly any time in the last 10,000 years.

Belt, 2018     “Exceptionally, Massé et al. (2011) observed a general decline in sedimentary IPSO25 concentration in a short offshore transect from East Antarctica; a trend shown subsequently to be quite general for various other Antarctic regions (Belt et al., 2016). In the latter study, it was suggested that the origin of this trend might be found in the preferred habitat of the known source of IPSO25 (B. adeliensis), which has a tendency to proliferate in platelet ice, found most commonly in near-shore locations covered by fast ice (Medlin, 1990). As such, it was hypothesised that higher concentrations of IPSO25 might be found in locations proximal to ice shelves, since their basal melt acts as the major driver for platelet ice formation (Jefferies et al., 1993). Re-examination of some palaeo sea ice records based on IPSO25 added further credibility to this suggestion (Fig. 6), and Smik et al. (2016a) also identified highest concentrations of IPSO25 in near-shore surface waters soon after spring sea ice melt.”

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

“Extensive modern sea ice conditions” during spring (80% concentrations), but “consistently low” and “marginal” (<10%) sea ice conditions from 10,500 to 1,500 years before present.

Köseoğlu et al., 2018     “The core 70 site is characterised by extensive modern sea ice conditions (≈80% SpSIC [Spring Sea Ice Concentration]) and the downcore record represents a gradual evolution of sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea from ice-free conditions during the early Holocene to prolonged seasonal sea ice presence prevalent in the region today. The primarily insolation-controlled southward expansion of sea ice cover previously inferred for the core site throughout the Holocene (Belt et al., 2015; Berben et al., 2017) is reflected in the CT model assessment. Consistent with the onset of the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the resulting proximity of the annual maximum sea ice edge to the core site between ca. 9.5–8.5 cal kyr BP evident from low PIIIIP25-derived SpSIC (ca. 5–15%), the CT model predicts mostly marginal sea ice conditions during this interval. … From ca. 10.0–1.5 cal kyr BP, ice-free conditions characterised the core 11 site, as evidenced by consistently low SpSIC (ca. <10%) and marginal sea ice conditions predicted by the CT model, and further supported by an enhancement of AW [Arctic Water] inflow to the core site from ca. 9.8 cal kyr BP (Groot et al., 2014).”

“Lower than modern” sea ice conditions between 2,200 and 1,200 years before present.  Little Ice Age sea ice conditions “possible similar to conditions as observed today”.

Kolling et al., 2018     “Our biomarker record indicates that Disko Bugt [West Greenland] experienced a gradual expansion of seasonal sea ice during the last 2.2 kyr. Maximum sea ice extent was reached during the Little Ice Age around 0.2 kyr BP. Superimposed on this longer term trend, we find short-term oscillations in open water primary production and terrigenous input, which may be related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and solar activity changes as potential climatic trigger mechanisms.  The period between 2.2 and 1.2 kyr BP, with lower than modern sea ice conditions in Disko Bugt (Fig. 6b), coincides with generally warm conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet.”
“During the last 0.1 kyr, all biomarker concentrations showed an increase, brassicasterol and HBI III reach maximum values in the uppermost sample (80 µg/gTOC and 1.8 µg/gTOC, respectively; Fig. 3b, d).
“[During the Little Ice Age (0.7–0.2 kyr BP)] our biomarker record supports harsher sea ice conditions, possibly similar to conditions as observed today (Fig. 6b), indicated by strong increased in IP25 concentration and the PDIP25 index (Fig. 4c, d). …  A self-amplifying system may have caused the environmental changes observed in Disko Bugt area as follows: solar triggered Arctic sea ice melt [Ruzmaikin et al., 2004] increases freshwater supply towards the North Atlantic causing a reduction in sub-polar gyre activity and AMO [Holland et al., 2001, Schmith et al., 2003] as described by Sha et al. [2016]. This may in turn cause distinct changes in WGC composition and meltwater supply from the Greenland Ice Sheet that affects phytoplankton blooms in West Greenland.
“We find that the Disko Bugt area was influenced by seasonal sea ice over the last 2.2 kyr BP. The overall sea ice trend indicates a development from a reduced sea ice cover during early spring, with sea ice algae productivity hampered by light availability to a gradual extend of the sea ice season from 1.2 kyr BP onwards. This change in sea ice extend is parallel to decreasing Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperatures and culminates in the Little Ice Age around 0.2 kyr. We assume that modern conditions, with sea ice present until late spring and the presence of a stable ice edge at Disko Bugt, established around that time [~200 years ago].”

Other Arctic reconstructions indicate more extensive sea ice conditions exist today than most of the Holocene.

Image Source:  Yamamoto et al., 2017

Image Source: Perner et al., 2018

Nothing unusual or unprecedented: ‘Internal variability’ or natural cycles responsible for half of the Arctic sea ice loss since 1979.

Yu and Zhong, 2018    “The underlying physical mechanisms for the Arctic warming and accelerated sea ice retreat are not fully understood. In this study, we apply a relatively novel statistical method called Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to examine the trend and variability of autumn Arctic sea ice in the past three decades and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Our results show that the anomalous autumn the Arctic Dipole (AD) (Node 1) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Node 9) could explain in a statistical sense as much as 50% of autumn sea ice decline between 1979 and 2016. The Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with anomalous sea surface temperature patterns over the North Pacific and North Atlantic influence Arctic sea ice primarily through anomalous temperature and water vapour advection and associated radiative feedback. … We investigate the potential mechanisms for the autumn arctic sea ice decline for the period 1979-2016 using the SOM method. Our results show that more than half of the autumn Arctic sea ice loss may be associated with the changes in the temperature and water vapour transport and the associated water vapour radiation feedback resulting from anomalous atmospheric circulations linked to SST anomalies over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. …  [T]he results here help advance the knowledge about the relatively large contributions from the decadal-scale natural climate variability to Arctic climate change…”

Image: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0
Image: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7499/full/nature13260.htm

Image: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011GL048008

Image: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3241
Image: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/15/4570.full

Image: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005GL023429

Graph

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Global Warming Pause Extends…Becoming Clear IPCC Grossly Overstated Projected Warming

By on 17. October 2018

Impressive Cold Grips As Planet Continues Its Warming Pause

By SnowFan
(Translated/summarized by P Gosselin)

The continuing global cooling and the start of the grand minimum require new targets in climate policy and a complete withdrawal from the previous warming madness.

After a complete failure by the IPCC climate models and the crazy assignment of CO2 as a pollutant, scientific reason must once again return to the climate discussion.

Neither did the sea ice in the Arctic disappear in the summer of 2016 as it was often predicted by nutty scientists (even by NASA, who wrote that Arctic summers would be ice-free by 2013), nor have global temperatures risen by an significance over the past 20 years, thus contradicting the projections of IPCC models.

The chart above depicts in orange the range of the IPCC projections for the deviation of global mean temperature since 1990. The mean IPCC projection was +0.75°C of warming. Satellite measurements by UAH and RSS (blue line) show only an increase of 0.34°C. The models have been completely wrong. Source: When will “The Pause” in global temperature return?

Moreover, the ice mass at both poles and Greenland have grown over the past years. Also the facts surrounding the increasingly cooler Antarctic are presented by a recent study.

An extreme record value of almost -100°C was measured in 2004, but kept quiet in order not to dísturb the quasi religious fairy tale of manmade “global warming”.

1988 Maldives predictions an epic blunder

This is also one reason why sea level rise has increased less than originally projected and why the 1988 prophesy that all 1196 Maldives islands would sink underwater within 30 years have turned out to be preposterous. Not a single island has gone under!

“Missed It By That Much”

On September 26, 1988, “experts” announced all of the 1196 Maldives islands would be underwater. In 2018 – 30 years later – we see this has ended up being an epic blunder.

Source: Real Climate

In fact, one recent paper found, for example, that the South Sea Tuvalu islands have grown, the shaming climate scientists!

Time for competent and honest institutions

The time has arrived where government offices, authorities, weather services, media headquarters and educational institutes become staffed by educated and independent persons who are able to see the reality in the interrelationships of weather and climate and report them in an unfalsified manner.

It’s the sun, water, clouds, vapor, ice, snow that determined the weather of our planet, and not life-sustaining trace gas CO2, which makes up only 0.04%of our atmosphere.

Anyone who vilifies trace gas CO2 as a pollutant conducts him/herself in a manner that is hostile to life and is thus not suited to be a scientist, teacher, professor, journalist or politician!

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Nature-Wrecking Machines…Experts Warn Wind Turbines Slowing Wind Speeds, Causing More Warming!

By on 16. October 2018

Experts are finding out wind turbines are not only an inefficient way to produce electricity, but that they are also wrecking the environment, natural habitats and even the climate.

German meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt warns wind turbines are altering local climates. Image: Donnerwetter.de.

So far we know wind parks:

  1. Are an erratic source of power
  2. Have high maintenance costs
  3. Involve recycling problems
  4. Blight the natural landscape
  5. Are a hazard to birds and wildlife
  6. Result in deforestation and wrecked biotopes
  7. Make people seriously sick (infrasound), and
  8. Interfere with weather radars.

And according to one German prominent meteorologist, Dr. Karsten Brandt of Donnerwetter.de,  wind turbines are now even putting the brakes on wind speeds and even altering local climates.

How an environmentalist could support this form of energy is becoming increasingly mind-boggling. Hat-tip Die kalte Sonne here. The Donnerwetter.de press release follows:

Less and less wind due to more and more wind turbines?

An ever weaker wind is blowing across Germany. For example in the 1960s annual wind speeds of 3.7 meters per second were measured in Osnabrück, but now it’s only 3.2 m/s. That’s a drop of over 13 percent. Almost all weather stations in the country which were analyzed by the Bonn-based meteorologists at donnerwetter.de found that the trend looks similar.

Wind speed has decreased “very significantly”

“In most places, the mean wind speed has decreased very significantly,” says Dr. Karsten Brandt. And he has a suspicion: “We believe that in the last 15 years more and more massive wind turbines have influenced the wind speed.”

The trend of ever decreasing winds was not observed out on the open sea, however. To the contrary: On the islands of Norderney or Helgoland the wind has in fact increased slightly over the past 20-30 years. Yet in northern Germany, just inland from the coast, i.e. just after the first wind rotors, the donnerwetter.de meteorologists found a decline in the average annual wind speed: from 3.8 – 3.9 m/s to less than 3.5 m/s.

“Of course, the increase in building construction and especially high-rise buildings in Germany has had a slight braking effect,” admits Brandt. “The braking effect of wind turbines should, however, exceed this.”

Confirmed by other studies

A variety of studies support the meteorologists’ assumption. “Danish research has shown that air flow is weaker than before the turbines even 14 kilometers downstream from a wind farm,” says Dr. Brandt.

This is an effect that the operators of such parks are concerned about. If a new turbine park is built in front of an existing park in the main wind direction, the losses could be over 50 percent, American studies have shown.

In northern Germany, there is now one wind turbine every 10 square kilometers. According to the donnerwetter.de meteorologists, the North German air flow is generating so much energy that a weaker north wind is now arriving at the north German interior. The situation is similar with westerlies, which are weakened by wind turbines in the Netherlands and Belgium.

Wind park warming…”more heat inland”!

According to Dr. Brandt: “The weaker wind ensures less air exchange. This in turn drives up pollutant concentration in our air. Especially in the summer months, the lack of wind means more heat inland and less land-sea-wind circulation. In addition, the air is heated by the generators, as further studies have shown.”

“Think again before further developing wind energy”

So far the wind has been considered as an almost inexhaustible source of energy – albeit being incalculable and poorly predictable. The fact that you can extract some of your energy from the wind turbines was seen as a pioneering achievement.

“But the fact that man takes so much energy from the wind”, the climatologist concludes, “and considering the consequences, we should probably think again before further developing wind energy.”

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Missed A Few, IPCC? 368 New 2018 Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarmism

By on 15. October 2018

In the first 9½ months of 2018,  368 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.

These 368 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.

More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.

N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.

N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

N(3) The computer climate models are neither reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.

N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).

In sharp contrast to the above, the corresponding “consensus” positions that these papers do not support are:

A(1) Close to or over 100% (110%) of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leaving natural attribution at something close to 0%.

RealClimate.org: “The best estimate of the warming due to anthropogenic forcings (ANT) is the orange bar (noting the 1𝛔 uncertainties). Reading off the graph, it is 0.7±0.2ºC (5-95%) with the observed warming 0.65±0.06 (5-95%). The attribution then follows as having a mean of ~110%, with a 5-95% range of 80–130%. This easily justifies the IPCC claims of having a mean near 100%, and a very low likelihood of the attribution being less than 50% (p < 0.0001!).”

A(2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities…are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)…and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.

A(3) The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural forcing factors (solar activity, clouds, water vapor, etc.) and CO2 concentration changes on climate is “settled enough“, which means that “the time for debate has ended“.

A(4) The proposed solutions to mitigate the dangerous consequences described in N(4) – namely, wind and solar expansion – are safe, effective, and environmentally-friendly.

To reiterate, the 368 papers compiled in 2018 thus far support the N(1)-N(4) positions, and they undermine or at least do not support the “consensus” A(1)-A(4) positions.  The papers do not do more than that.   In other words, it is not accurate to claim these papers prove that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) positions are invalid, or that AGW claims have now been “debunked”.

Below are the three links to the list of  2018 papers amassed as of the 15th of October, 2018, as well as the guideline for the lists’ categorization.

Finally, a sampling of some of the new papers is also included below.

Skeptic Papers 2018 (1)

Skeptic Papers 2018 (2)

Skeptic Papers 2018 (3)

Part 1. Natural Climate Change Observation, Reconstruction

Warming Since Mid/Late 20th Century? (30)
A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (58)
Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (12)
Sea Levels Multiple Meters Higher 4,000-7,000 Years Ago (12)
A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (25)
Mass Extinction Events Caused By Glaciation, Sea Level Fall (3)
Antarctic Ice Melting In High Geothermal Heat Flux Areas (2)
Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (5)

Part 2. Natural Mechanisms Of Weather, Climate Change  

Solar Influence On Climate (78)
ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (19)
Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (8)
Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (4)
Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (2)
The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (9)

Part 3. Unsettled Science, Failed Climate Modeling

Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (19)
Urban Heat Island: Raising Surface Temperatures Artificially (3)
Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (11)
Wind Power Harming The Environment, Biosphere (10)
Elevated CO2: Greens Planet, Higher Crop Yields (7)
Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (7)
Warming, Acidification Not Harming Oceanic Biosphere (7)
Coral Bleaching A Natural, Non-Anthropogenic Phenomenon (2)
No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (6)
No Increasing Trend In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (6)
Natural CO2 Emissions A Net Source, Not A Net Sink (5)
Global Fire Frequency Declining As CO2 Rises (2)
CO2 Change Lags Temperature Change By 1000+ Years (3)
Miscellaneous (12)
Scientists: We Don’t Understand (1)

Non-Hockey Sticks: A Few Thousand Years Ago It Was 1-3°C Warmer Than Today

Papadomanolaki et al., 2018  (Baltic Sea)  A large fraction of the Baltic Proper became hypoxic again between 1.4 and 0.7 ka BP, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), when mean air temperatures were 0.9–1.4 °C higher than temperatures recorded in the period 1961–1990 (e.g. Mann et al., 2009; Jilbert and Slomp, 2013).
Leonard et al., 2018  (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)  Coral derived sea surface temperature (SST-Sr/Ca) reconstructions demonstrate conditions ∼1 ◦C warmer than present at ∼6200 (recalibrated 14C) and 4700 yr BP, with a suggested increase in salinity range (δ18O) associated with amplified seasonal flood events, suggestive of La Niña (Gagan et al., 1998; Roche et al., 2014).
Suvorov and Kitov, 2018  (Eastern Sayan, Siberia)  The authors examined the variability of activity of modern glaciation and variation of natural conditions of the periglacial zone on climate and on dendrochronological data. Results of larch and Siberian stone pine growth data were revealed at the higher border of forest communities. …  It is believed that the temperature could be 3.5 °C warmer at the Holocene optimum than at the present time (Vaganov and Shiyatov 2005). … Since 2000, there has been growth of trees instability associated with a decrease in average monthly summer temperatures. …  Since the beginning of 2000, decrease in summer temperatures was marked.
Lozhkin et al., 2018  (East Siberia)  The postglacial occurrence of relatively warm/dry and warm/wet intervals is consistent with results of a regional climate‐model simulation that indicates warmer than present temperatures and decreased effective moisture at 11 000 cal. a BP and persistence of warm conditions but with greater moisture and longer growing season at 6000 cal. a BP.
Smith, 2018  (Greenland Ice Sheet)     To project how much sea level will rise in response to ongoing climate warming, one of the things we need to know is how sensitive the rate of Greenland Ice Sheet melting is to rising temperatures. McFarlin et al. present results from a set of sediment cores from a small nonglacial lake in the highlands of northwest Greenland, which contain deposits from the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG). They found midge assemblages indicating peak July temperatures that were 4.0° to 7.0°C warmer than modern temperatures during the early Holocene and at least 5.5° to 8.5°C warmer during the LIG. This perspective of extreme warming suggests that even larger changes than predicted for this region over the —–coming century may be in store.
Kullman, 2018  (Scandes, Northern Sweden)     The present paper reports results from an extensive project aiming at improved understanding of postglacial subalpine/alpine vegetation, treeline, glacier and climate history in the Scandes of northern Sweden. The main methodology is analyses of mega fossil tree remnants, i.e. trunks, roots and cones, recently exposed at the fringe of receding glaciers and snow/ice patches. This approach has a spatial resolution and accuracy, which exceeds any other option for tree cover reconstruction in high-altitude mountain landscapes. …  All recovered tree specimens originate from exceptionally high elevations, about 600-700 m atop of modern treeline positions. … Conservatively drawing on the latter figure and a summer temperature lapse rate of 0.6 °C per 100 m elevation (Laaksonen 1976), could a priori mean that, summer temperatures were at least 4.2 °C warmer than present around 9500 year before present. However, glacio-isostatic land uplift by at least 100 m since that time (Möller 1987; Påsse & Anderson 2005) implies that this figure has to be reduced to 3.6 °C higher than present-day levels, i.e. first decades of the 21st century. Evidently, this was the warmth peak of the Holocene, hitherto. This inference concurs with paleoclimatic reconstructions from Europe and Greenland (Korhola et al. 2002; Bigler et al. 2003; Paus 2013; Luoto et al. 2014; Väliranta et al. 2015).
Borisova, 2018  (central East European Plain)     Paleobotanical assemblages from peat, lake, and archaeological deposits reveal that during the Middle Holocene (MH; ca. 9.0 to 4.7 kyr BP), the central East European Plain was occupied by highly productive and diverse mixed-oak forests, along with mire, meadow, and riverine communities. Climatic reconstructions based on modern analogues of fossil pollen and plant macrofossil assemblages indicate that throughout the MH [Middle Holocene] mean annual precipitation was at near present levels (~600 mm) and July temperatures were similar to those of today (~17°C). However, differences in the Fossil Floras (FFs) suggest changes in winter conditions though the MH [Middle Holocene, 9.0 to 4.7 kyr BP], with January temperatures higher than the present-day value of -10°C by 2°C in the Early Atlantic, 6°C in the Middle Atlantic, and 3°C in the Late Atlantic-Early Subboreal. The annual frost-free period was 15 days longer than today in the Early Atlantic, about one month longer in the Late Atlantic, and became close to present by the beginning of the Subboreal. The combination of warm winters with diverse and productive vegetation communities provided an environment that was more hospitable than that of today for Late Mesolithic and Neolithic societies.
McFarlin et al., 2018    (Greenland)  Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures [Greenland] 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum [10,000 to 8,000 years ago] in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern.
Bartels et al., 2018  (North Atlantic Region)     During summer, AW [Atlantic Water] rises up to waterdepths as shallow as ~55 m. … Summer surface temperatures [1955-2012] range between up to 3°C at the northern mouth and <-1.5 °C at the southern mouth of the Hinlopen Strait, while winter surface temperatures vary between 0.5 and <~1.5°C (averaged, 1955–2012; Locarnini et al. 2013). … Increased summer insolation probably amplified the surface melting of the glaciers resulting in enhanced meltwater production and in a very high accumulation of finegrained sediments within the fjord […].  In addition, during the mild early Holocene conditions, summer sea-surface temperatures probably reaching 8–10°C [~5 – 9.5°C warmer than 1955-2012] (indicated by M. edulis findings as discussed in Hansen et al. 2011) may have contributed to reducing the number of glaciers that entered the fjord directly as tidewater glaciers and thus causing a diminished IRD input. These comparably warm surface temperatures most likely resulted in a reduced sea ice cover during summer, which is also reflected in the sea-ice biomarker data exhibiting lowest IP25 values during the early Holocene. … [G]lacier advances are most likely caused by atmospheric cooling as indicated, e.g. by d18O values from the Greenland NGRIP ice-core (Rasmussen et al.  2014a), by data from peats and permafrost soils on Spitsbergen (e.g. Humlum et al. 2003; Humlum 2005; Jaworski 2016), and by evidence that solar activity reduced around 2.7 ka, contributing to a cooling in both hemispheres (van Geel et al. 1999, 2000). … In lake sediments from northwestern Spitsbergen a temperature drop of ~6°C is recorded between c. 7.8 and c. 7 ka [-0.8°C per century], which has been connected to a stronger influence of Arctic Water and expanding sea ice (van der Bilt et al. 2018).
Street-Perrot et al., 2018  (Estonia)     Estimates of summer temperatures in Estonia based on rapidly responding proxies such as aquatic macrofossils (Valiranta et al., 2015) and chironomids (Heiri et al., 2014) suggest conditions 2 °C warmer than today during the early Holocene.
Pozachenuk, 2018 (Western Russia)  Mass peat accumulation in the territory of Vyatka region began only in the first half of the Atlantic Holocene period. The maximum warming corresponds to the second half of at (climatic optimum Holocene), when the average temperatures of January and July exceeded modern 2-3˚C. at this time in the region formed coniferous-broad-leaved forests of complex composition, with a slight presence of broad-leaved species (Qercus, Tilia, Ulmus) and Corulus. Siberian element of flora-fir on the territory of Vyatka region appeared only in the Subatlantic period of Holocene, most likely due to climatic conditions.
Kolaczek et al., 2018 (Southeastern Poland)    The reconstruction of the mean July temperature based on Chironomidae revealed the exceptionally high rate of warming during the period of ca. 11,490–11,460 cal. BP (at least 1 °C per decade) up to values > 2 °C than modern ones. … Between ca. 11,490 and 11,460 cal. BP, the strongest warming trend in the Early Holocene MJT was registered, that is from 15 to 20.7°C (0.19°C yr1, 1.9°C/decade). Then, ca. 11,450 cal. BP, the temperature decreased to 18.3°C and up to ca. 10,560 cal. BP MJT fluctuated between 17  and 19°C. The climate of the area [today] is classified as cold temperate with mean annual air temperature of 8.2°C  and mean annual precipitation 620 mm. A mean temperature of the warmest month, i.e. July, is +18.2°C [today], whereas a mean temperature of the coldest month, i.e. January, is -3.6°C.
Ruskeeniemi et al., 2018  (Greenland Ice Sheet)     Towards the Holocene Climatic Optimum, temperatures steadily increased and were 2.5°C higher than at present during 8000-5000 cal years BP. It is suggested that the GrIS started to re-advance after 4400 cal years BP due to cooling, with 0.5°C lower temperatures than at present around 2000 years BP. Within the LIA, Dahl-Jensen et al. (1998) identified two cold periods at 1550 AD and 1850 AD, with temperatures respectively 0.5°C and 0.7°C below the present values. At around 1930 AD, the temperatures reached a maximum and have slightly decreased thereafter.

The CO2 Greenhouse Effect: Climate Driver?

Davis et al., 2018     [T]he contemporary global warming increase of ~0.8 °C recorded since 1850 has been attributed widely to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Recent research has shown, however, that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been decoupled from global temperature for the last 425 million years [Davis, 2017] owing to well-established diminishing returns in marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF) as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases. Marginal forcing of temperature from increasing CO2 emissions declined by half from 1850 to 1980, and by nearly two-thirds from 1850 to 1999 [Davis, 2017]. Changes in atmospheric CO2 therefore affect global temperature weakly at most. The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis has been embraced partly because “…there is no convincing alternative explanation…” [USGCRP, 2017] (p. 12). …  The ACO [Antarctic Centennial Oscillation] provides a possible [natural] alternative explanation in the form of a natural climate cycle that arises in Antarctica, propagates northward to influence global temperature, and peaks on a predictable centennial timetable. … The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.
Smirnov, 2018     From this, it follows for the change of the global temperature as a result at doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules [is] ∆T = (0.4 ± 0.1) K, where the error accounts for the accuracy of used values, whereas the result depends on processes included in the above scheme. Indeed, we assume the atmospheric and Earth’s albedo, as well as another interaction of solar radiation with the atmosphere and Earth, to be unvaried in the course of the change of the concentration of CO2 molecules, and also the content of atmospheric water is conserved. Because anthropogenic fluxes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulted from combustion of fossil fuels is about 5% [Kaufman, 2007], the contribution of the human activity to ECS (the temperature change as a result of doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount) is ∆T = 0.02 K, i.e. injections of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil fuels is not important for the greenhouse effect.
Fleming, 2018     This manuscript will review the essence of the role of  CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. The logic of  CO2 involvement in changing the climate will be investigated from every perspective: reviewing the historical data record, examining in further detail the twentieth-century data record, and evaluating the radiation role of  CO2 in the atmosphere—calculating and integrating the Schwarzschild radiation equation with a full complement of  CO2 absorption coefficients. A review of the new theory of climate change—due to the Sun’s magnetic field interacting with cosmic rays, is provided. The application of this new theory is applied to climate-change events within the latter part of the Earth’s interglacial period. … The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … Many believe and/or support the notion that the Earth’s atmosphere is a “greenhouse” with CO2 as the primary “greenhouse” gas warming Earth. That this concept seems acceptable is understandable—the modern heating of the Earth’s atmosphere began at the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. The industrial revolution took hold about the same time. It would be natural to believe that these two events could be the reason for the rise in temperature. There is now a much clearer picture of an alternative reason for why the Earth’s surface temperature has risen since 1850. … There is no correlation of CO2 with temperature in any historical data set that was reviewed. The climate-change cooling over the 1940–1975 time period of the Modern Warming period was shown to be influenced by a combination of solar factors. The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connection. When the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms. Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools. The factors that affect these climate changes were reviewed in “Solar magnetic field/cosmic ray factors affecting climate change” section. The calculations of “H2O and CO2 in the radiation package” section revealed that there is no net impact of CO2 on the net heating of the atmosphere. The received heat is simply redistributed within the atmospheric column. This result is consistent and explains the lack of CO2 correlations with observations in the past. The current Modern Warming will continue until the solar magnetic field decreases in strength. If one adds the 350-year cycle from the McCracken result to the center of the Maunder Minimum which was centered in 1680, one would have a Grand Minimum centered in the year 2030.
Holmes, 2018     In short, there is unlikely to be any significant net warming from the greenhouse effect on any planetary body in the parts of atmospheres which are >10kPa. Instead, it is proposed that the residual temperature difference between the effective temperature and the measured near-surface temperature, is a thermal enhancement caused by gravitationally-induced adiabatic auto compression, powered by convection. A new null hypothesis of global warming or climate change is therefore proposed and argued for; one which does not include any anomalous or net warming from greenhouse gases in the tropospheric atmospheres of any planetary body. … A decline of 6% in lower tropospheric tropical cloud cover (15°N–15°S) occurred 1984 – 2000 according to the international satellite cloud climatology project’s data [29]. These years are contained well with the 1975-2000 period of warming, and an observed 0.4°C rise in global temperatures occurred over the same period. Scatter diagrams [55] of low cloud cover vs global surface air temperatures indicate that a 1% fall in low clouds equates to a 0.07°C rise in surface air temperatures – hence this change in cloudiness accounts for the entire observed rise in global temperatures during the 1975-2000 period, leaving no room for any effect from growing greenhouse gases.
Ollila, 2018         The temperature effects of the water and CO2 are based on spectral analysis calculations, which show that water is 11.8 times stronger a GH gas than CO2 in the present climate. … There are essential features in the long-term trends of temperature and TPW [total precipitable water], which are calculated and depicted as mean values 11 years running. The temperature has increased about 0.4°C since 1979 and has now paused at this level. The long-term trend of TPW effects shows that it has slightly decreased during the temperature-increasing period from 1979 to 2000. This means that the absolute water amount in the atmosphere does not follow the temperature increase, but is practically constant, reacting only very slightly to the long-term trends of temperature changes. The assumption that relative humidity is constant and that it amplifies the GH gas changes over the longer periods by doubling the warming effects finds no grounds based on the behavior of the TWP [total precipitable water] trend. The positive water feedback exists only during the short-term ENSO events (≤4 years). … The validity of the IPCC model can be tested against the observed temperature. It turns out that the IPCC-calculated temperature increase for 2016 is 1.27°C, which is 49 per cent higher than the observed 0.85°C. This validity test means that the IPCC climate forcing model using the radiative forcing value of CO2 is too sensitive for CO2 increase, and the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter, including the positive water feedback doubling the GH gas effects, does not exist. … The CO2 emissions from 2000 onward represent about one-third of the total emissions since 1750, but the temperature has not increased, and it has paused at the present level. This is worthy proof that the IPCC’s climate model has overestimated human-induced causes and has probably underestimated natural causes like the sun’s activity changes, considering the historical temperatures during the past 2000 years. … The RF [radiative forcing] value for the CO2 concentration of 560 ppm is 2.16 Wm−2 according to equation (3), which is 42 per cent smaller than 3.7 Wm−2 used by the IPCC. The same study of Ollila (2014) shows that the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter λ is 0.27 K/(Wm−2), which means that there is no water feedback. Using this λ value, equation (3) gives a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] value of 0.6°C only. This same result is also reported by Harde (2014) using the spectral analysis method. …There are both theoretical- and measurement-based studies showing results that can be explained only by the fact that there is no positive water feedback. This result reduces the CS [climate sensitivity] by 50 per cent. Some research studies show that the RF [radiative forcing] value of carbon dioxide is considerably smaller than the commonly used RF value, according to the equation of Myhre et al. (1998). Because of these two causes, the critical studies show a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] of about 0.6°C instead of 1.9°C by the IPCC, a 200 per cent difference.
Liu and Chen, 2018     CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally(mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect: temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R~2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2. However, the R~2 shows much less significance (mean R~2=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature(mean R~2=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture: human emission drives global warming.
Laubereau and Iglev, 2018     Using a simple 1-dimensional model the global warming of the surface is computed that is generated by the increase of GHG and the albedo change. A modest effect by the GHG of 0.08 K is calculated for the period 1880 to 1955 with a further increase by 0.18 K for 1955 to 2015. A larger contribution of 0.55 ± 0.05 K is estimated for the melting of polar sea ice (MSI) in the latter period, i.e. it notably exceeds that of the GHG and may be compared with the observed global temperature rise of 1.0 ± 0.1 K during the past 60 years. … In conclusion we wish to say that we have performed a study of the infrared properties of carbon dioxide, methane, dinitrogen-oxide and water to estimate their contribution to the global warming in 1880 – 2015. Our results suggest that the IR properties of the CO2 are responsible for ~ 20% of the mean temperature increase of the surface and notably less for CH4 and N2O.

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The Green Mob: Dutch Filmmaker Attacked For Climate/Energy Critical Movie …Received “Anonymous Threats”!

By on 14. October 2018

Left-leaning filmmaker German-Dutch filmmaker Martin Poels has produced some 50 films over the past 15 years.

German-Dutch film maker Martin Poels has come under attack for questioning climate dogma. Image cropped here.

His most recent film is titled Paradogma – a personal journey why true liberty needs heretics, It focusses on current controversial debates such as climate change, and how dissenters are being silenced.

Martin Poels recently wrote: “People who dare to question important themes today, are often silenced or labeled as suspicious and dangerous and that we now find ourselves “in a new era where world views clash and free speech crumbles under pressure to conform.”

German liberty under threat

And because Poels has been critical concerning the state of the climate debate, he has been threatened and marginalized.

German mainstream media has silenced the film, and anonymous threats have been launched against Poels, which show that the topic of climate and energy has become type of religion.

And anyone who questions this religion gets shut out of the public discussion forum.

Nevertheless journalist Jörg Rehmann spoke with Poels after the screening of his film in Brussels at the end of last year:

According to the interview:

Since Martin Poels has become critical about the contradictions of climate science, he has been blocked out by the German media and threatened by green lobbyists and at times called a Nazi.”

In the interview he begins by stating that because the film looks at climate and energy, it is a difficult topic because of the deep political dogma that it involves. “But the biggest problem,” Poels said, “Is that the media refuses to report on it.”

Climate: “forged” consensus that must not be disturbed

Poels mentions that they were successful, however, getting the film shown in 100 cinemas. Overall he calls the subject of climate in Germany a dogma that it is very difficult to criticize. He calls climate consensus something that was forged, and not something that is to be disturbed.

Hostile Greenpeace?

The filmmaker speaks of having received threats from organizations, such as Greenpeace, so much so that he became afraid. He said: “I got a call warning that I should better stop the film, before you really get problems.” He says the call was anonymous, but his understanding was that it came from Greenpeace.

Next Poels describes how some people reacted when the film was shown. He said: “Sometimes there were people who got really aggressive in their talk against me”.

“Shameful” media

He then calls the German publicly funded media’s role in the climate topic “shameful”, as it is clear that the green energy issue is not a topic that is to be questioned nor discussed.

Either you’re with us, or against us

Poels also notes that the topic of green energies can be discussed and criticizesd in Holland, but that it Germany the issue of green energies has become very sensitive and criticism is not welcome “because rescuing the climate is good, and when you criticize it, it means you no longer want to save the planet.” It’s: either you’re with us, or against us. Poels calls this radical mindset “nonsense”.

Corrupted by business interests

Poels sees green energies as desirable, but currently he believes they are a social injustice, as the rich benefit and the poor have to bear the costs. Moreover, they are harming the environment more than they are helping.

The flim also shows that the science is long from being settled, thus contradicting claims often made by alarmist scientists and the media. Poels believes that the science has been corrupted in part by lobbyists “where the target is no longer the target, and that business has become the target itself.” He adds:

For me, that’s one explanation why we are not allowed to discuss it. Because it criticizes not only climate change, but the business behind it.”

Biased media has abandoned its job

For Poels, this corruption by self interest is simply being neglected by the German public media: “There are simply rules within the media that say to talk about climate change uncritically – only positively. That’s a law within the media business.”

In total, Poels believes German journalism has long abandoned it’s neutrality on the topic of climate change and green energies. “It’s only politics.” He comments further:

Not only the science is politicized, but so are the media.”

German media “really frightening”

Poels then says the media are more open in the Netherlands, but finds the situation in Berlin “really frightening”. He agrees that in Germany it’s enough to express skepticism on climate science in order to be labelled a fringe right winger.

He finds it ironic that the media often accuse climate skeptics of conspiracy theories, but at the same time subscribe to the conspiracy theory that oil companies helped fund his film.

Academic arrogance

In the area of academia, Poels says overall the film has been received positively and openly by most students, but that professors have composed themselves arrogantly and simply dismiss the film’s content offhand after viewing it. One example, Poels cites, is how one professor simply dismissed a critical student – who had challenged the professor – as “a student who still had a lot to learn”.

Energiewende at a dead-end

In summary Poels agrees that the German Energiewende has reached a dead-end and that the establishment is no longer capable of learning lessons.

Historically, that all sounds familiar.

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German ‘Die Welt’: “1.5°C Target Appears Utopian”, No Longer Attainable…”Clock Ran Out Already Weeks Ago”

By on 13. October 2018

Daniel Wetzel at German national daily Die Welt here recently commented that limiting the warming to 1.5°C warming is utopian. That’s of course, assuming the man-made global warming theory is correct to begin with.

According Wetzel, time theoretically ran out long ago.

Wetzel wrote that despite all the controversy surrounding the IPCC report, one thing is clear: “It’s going to take trillions for the 1.5°C target . And without many veggie days, it’s not going to happen.”

The green urgency for a state of emergency

Even before the report was released to the public, environmentalists and climate activists had already made up their minds that humanity had one last chance to avert calamity. Profound wide-scale action would need to be taken. Green politicians and environmental activists are now demanding a declaration of a state of emergency, it seems. Theoretically however, the window in fact closed weeks ago.

Misrepresenting the report

For Germany, green-colored or shaded politicians and activists said the report confirms that Germany must exit coal power by 2025 at the latest. But Wetzel comments that many special interests are framing the report as something that it really isn’t:

Every lobbyist is taking out of the UN climate report what what appeals to them, and leave everything else aside.”

Clock stuck at 5 to 12, in fact ran out weeks ago

Wetzel comments that the urgent claims made by the Greens that there is still a small window of opportunity is “surprising” because according to the Mercator Research Institute’s (MCC) “CO2 countdown clock“, time already ran out 30 days ago even for the mid range scenarios, meaning there wasn’t supposed to any more CO2 emissions at all. But Wetzel writes:

In the latest climate report, suddenly there’s 300 gigatonnes more. […] Indeed on in this manner does the world gain 7.5 years time for CO2 reductions, says Oliver Geden, a lead author for the next UN report.”

He cites Chapter C1.4, footnote no. 14 of the report.

A TRILLION dollars a year

According to Wetzel, the UN report also notes that between 900 billion and 1.8 trillion dollars would need to be invested every year from 2015 – 2050 to revamp the global energy system. This is a figure that even the richest nations are going run from.

Currently Germany’s Energiewende alone is costing Germany 34 billion euros annually. Worse, there’s been no CO2 reduction in Germany in close to a decade. That’s some 300 billion euros for zero result. Wetzel adds that Germany has already reached its threshold of financial pain as electricity prices have soared to among the highest worldwide.

Wetzel points out severe “limitations in nutrition are needed”

The Die Welt economics journalist also writes that the German Greens forget to tell the public that it would be necessary to “commit some 8 million square kilometers of agricultural area to growing energy plants in order to reach the 1.5°C warming target.”

Moreover reaching the target would also require going much more without meat, whose production is energy and CO2 intensive. Overall, Wetzel writes, reaching the 1.5°C target “collides with the fight against poverty and hunger” and , if the theory is true, there’s no chance of reaching the 1.5°C target.

 

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Sea Level Shock…Satellite Imagery Shows Coral Islands Expanding! …”Results Challenge Existing Narratives Of Island Loss”

By on 12. October 2018

Despite sea level rise, Tuvalu Islands surface area has grown 3% over the past decades

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The South Sea islands are sinking. Send us money and visas for Australia and USA fast! That’s the underlying message of many media reports on the problem of sea level rise and their effects on the Pacific Coral Islands. Here science simply gets cast aside.

Since coral islands are made up of living organisms that have always lived just below the sea level, the islands “float” like ships on the surface of the ocean. When sea level goes up, so do the corals. This is already something you learn in geography lessons at school.

Paul Kench and his colleagues have now measured the shorelines of all 101 islands of Tuvalu for the last 40 years using satellite imagery. The result: The land area grew by just under 3% during this period, despite a fairly strong regional sea-level rise of 4 mm per year. Here is the abstract of the work that appeared in February 2018 in Nature Communications:

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.”

Source: Nature Communications

The discussion part of the paper states:

Results challenge existing narratives of island loss showing that island expansion has been the most common physical alteration throughout Tuvalu over the past four decades. Of significance, documented increases in island area over this period have occurred as the sea level has been rising.”

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New Paper: Extreme Sea Level Rise Is A ‘Non-Existent Threat’ Based On ‘Never Validated’ Models

By on 11. October 2018

“Extreme sea level rise warnings based on predictions by never validated models, or speculations, that are defocusing coastal management from every other relevant situation, should be discharged.” — Parker, 2018

Parker, 2018

Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of

the 20th century and consequences for coastal management

“Regionally, the sea levels in the PRD [Pearl River Delta, China] region and Japan show no significant acceleration from 1900 to present, but only oscillations. This result is consistent with the other coastal area of the world where long-term tide gauges are located. Policy making, and management, should therefore focus on adaptive measures linked to the monitoring by tide gauges and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) of relative sea level rise and land subsidence. Extreme sea level rise warnings based on predictions by never validated models, or speculations, that are defocusing coastal management from every other relevant situation, should be discharged.”
“[T]he long-term tide gauges of the world show no significant sign of sea level acceleration since the start of the 20th century.”
“Ocean and coastal management in the area should be based on the accurate monitoring of the relative sea level rise and the subsidence of the land by coupled tide gauge and Global Navigation Satellite System measurements, rather than models’ predictions and speculations defocusing coastal management from more relevant situations than the non-existent threat of extreme sea level rise.”

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German Climate Scientist Accuses IPCC Of Alarmism: “In The Red Rev Range Of Ideology And Reality Loss”

By on 10. October 2018

A retired German climate scientist says the IPCC has ventured into “the red rev range of ideology and reality loss”, and adds there is no stringent scientific proof of CO2’s influence on climate

At the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), a German climate scientist, wonders if the IPCC and German media have lost their grip on reality as they place the blame for global warming on human CO2 emissions.

Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke writes that the IPCC is in the “red rev range of ideology and reality loss” as the German media and politicians renew their calls to drastically cut back CO2 emissions in order to keep the planet from “dangerously overheating”.

The German climate scientist, however, says CO2’s impact on the climate are exorbitantly overblown.

Germany’s share of global CO2 negligible

First Prof. Lüdecke reminds that Germany’s share of global CO2 emissions is so puny that any reductions efforts by the country will have no detectable effect on global temperatures, and cites a Report of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

In the report’s Fig. 2.3 we see:

Image (Fig. 2.3): Emissions of climate gases worldwide (here)

As the chart shows, the European Union share of global emissions is only 9%. At 2.5%, Germany is a mere fraction of that.

“Already we see that our share globally is negligible,” Lüdecke writes.

“Fictional” damage

Lüdecke also doubts the large role CO2 is claimed to have on climate, and characterizes the notion the climate is somehow damaged by human CO2 as “fictional”.

“No stringent proof” manmade CO2 influences climate

The retired German professor also says that according to the scientific literature: “To date, there is no stringent proof that the anthropogenic, i.e. human-made (!) CO2 has exerted any influence on the climate which is clearly traceable to this source.”

Lüdecke adds that the temperature increase seen at the end of the 20th century is well within the range of natural variability and is not unusual and that, if anything, CO2 is good for the planet.

Posted in , | 94 Responses

Wind Energy Won’t Function For Supplying Germany With Power, Experts Say

By on 9. October 2018

As Germany moves to phase out coal power, more focus is being placed on relying on wind energy to fill in the gap.

Recently German business daily Handelsblatt here reported that despite the country adding more wind energy capacity, “the latest figures show that only a little wind power is available at any time.”

According to the German BWE wind energy group, 29,900 wind turbines are currently operating in the country with a total capcity of 56,000 megawatts. Wind energy makes up 18.8% of the country’s power supply.

Glaring weaknesses

But the Handelsblatt reports there are “glaring weaknesses” and that wind turbines cannot be relied on to deliver steady power when it’s needed.

According to Oliver Then, Managing Director of the VGB PowerTech Association, citing recent research results which the Handelsblatt has obtained: “The actual production figures show that the readily available wind power capacity in Germany is less than one percent of installed capacity.”

Back up absolutely necessary

According to the Handelsblatt, VGB PowerTech evaluated 2016 data from a number of European countries, and reports that the message is clear:

Even if the expansion of wind power progresses rapidly, there will always have to be back-up capacity, for example in the form of fossil power plants.”

VGB Director Oliver Then says that as more and more green energies get fed in, the less gas and fossil fuels plants operate, and thus making them no longer profitable. Yet they remain absolutely essential to keep the grid stable.

Can rely on neighboring countries?

Proponents of green energies who support a rapid fossil fuel phaseout insist that it can be done, and that Germany would only need to rely increasingly on a power supply from neighboring countries. When the wind is not blowing in Germany, power could be imported from another country where the wind is blowing.

But VGB Director Oliver Then says the data do not support this claim in any way, adding, “Power production is strongly synchronous over great distances.”

This means that if wind lacks in Germany, it often lacks in Poland as well and so neighbors cannot be relied on to provide electricity.

Pump storage not feasible

Pump storage as a way to store energy is also not feasible says Then, saying it would need to be increased 1000 fold, which would entail enormous costs. Then notes that periods of no wind extending two weeks are not uncommon in Germany.

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Reliable? CRU, NASA, BEST, NOAA Land Temp Data Conflict By Up To 90% (0.8°C), Spawning ‘Large Uncertainty’

By on 8. October 2018

A new paper documents “remarkably different” land temperatures from one instrumental data set to another. In some regions there is as much as an 0.8°C conflict in recorded temperature anomalies for CRU, NASA, BEST, and NOAA. The relative temperature trend differences can reach 90% when comparing instrumental records. Consequently, the uncertainty in instrumental temperature trends — “0.097–0.305°C per decade for recent decades (i.e., 1981–2017)” —  is as large or larger than the alleged overall warming trend itself for this period.

In a just-published audit of the IPCC-preferred HadCRUT temperature data set, Dr. John McClean identified 70 problems that seriously compromise the reliability and accuracy of this IPCC-preferred instrumental record dating back to 1850.

Joanne Nova provides a summary of the main points from the paper, McLean’s Ph.D thesis.

  • McLean found freakishly improbable data, and systematic adjustment errors , large gaps where there is no data, location errors, Fahrenheit temperatures reported as Celsius, and spelling errors.
  • Almost no quality control checks have been done: outliers that are obvious mistakes have not been corrected – one town in Columbia spent three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C.  One town in Romania stepped out from summer in 1953 straight into a month of Spring at minus 46°C. These are supposedly “average” temperatures for a full month at a time. St Kitts, a Caribbean island, was recorded at 0°C for a whole month, and twice!
  • Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
  • Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth’s surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.

Are Any Of The Temperature Data Sets Reliable? 

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research reveals that the recorded land temperature data from the four most commonly-referenced instrumental data sets — CRU, NASA, BEST, and NOAA — are “remarkably different” from one another.

In fact, the authors find that “for some areas, different data sets produce conflicting results of whether warming exists” due especially to variations in the use of “infilling techniques” — adding artificial temperatures to areas where there are no real-world measurements.

One data set trend can be “nearly 90%” different than another data set trend, which ratchets up the uncertainty to levels that undermine confidence in the overall reliability of the instrumental record.

Excerpts from the paper’s abstract and discussion/conclusion are provided below.

Rao et al., 2018

Land Surface Air Temperature Data Are Considerably Different

Among BEST‐LAND, CRU‐TEM4v, NASA‐GISS, and NOAA‐NCEI

“Several groups routinely produce gridded land surface air temperature (LSAT) data sets using station measurements to assess the status and impact of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report suggests that estimated global and hemispheric mean LSAT trends of different data sets are consistent. However, less attention has been paid to the intercomparison at local/regional scales, which is important for local/regional studies. In this study we comprehensively compare four data sets at different spatial and temporal scales, including Berkley Earth Surface Temperature land surface air temperature data set (BEST‐LAND), Climate Research Unit Temperature Data Set version 4 (CRU‐TEM4v), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies data (NASA‐GISS), and data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information (NOAA‐NCEI). The mean LSAT [land surface air temperature] anomalies are remarkably different because of the data coverage differences, with the magnitude nearly 0.4°C for the global and Northern Hemisphere and 0.6°C for the Southern Hemisphere.”

“This study additionally finds that on the regional scale, northern high latitudes, southern middle‐to‐high latitudes, and the equator show the largest differences nearly 0.8°C.”

“These differences cause notable differences for the trend calculation at regional scales. At the local scale, four data sets show significant variations over South America, Africa, Maritime Continent, central Australia, and Antarctica, which leads to remarkable differences in the local trend analysis. For some areas, different data sets produce conflicting results of whether warming exists.”

“Our analysis shows that the differences across scales are associated with the availability of stations and the use of infilling techniques. Our results suggest that conventional LSAT data sets using only station observations have large uncertainties across scales, especially over station‐sparse areas.”

“The relative difference of trends estimated from different data sets can reach nearly 90% for different regions and time periods. CRU-TEM4v generally appears to have the largest grid box scale differences, while NASA-GISS has the smallest differences compared to BEST-LAND.”

“The uncertainty of the LSAT [land surface air temperature] trend estimation caused by the data set differences (i.e., RMSD) ranges from 0.035 to 0.086°C per decade for the long-term trend (i.e., 1901–2017) to 0.097–0.305°C per decade for recent decades (i.e., 1981–2017).”

“In developing future LSAT data sets, the data uncertainty caused by limited and unevenly distributed station observations must be reduced.”

Image Source: Rao et al., 2018

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Scotland 800-Year Reconstruction Shows Temperatures Were As Warm Or Warmer In The Past!

By on 7. October 2018

Scotland climate over past 800 years: Pre-industrial warm phases provide answers

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

How do today’s temperatures fit into the climate-historical context?

This is one of the main tasks of today’s climate research. A group of researchers led by Milos Rydval have presented a reconstruction of summer temperatures in Scotland over the past 800 years. The results were produced from tree ring examinations.

Surprisingly, the scientists found that the current level of heat in Scotland had been reached and even exceeded several times in the past. These heat spells occurred in the 14th, 16th, and 18th centuries and each spanned over several decades (Figure 1). In between there were cold phases that fit well into the context of the Little Ice Age.

What follows is the abstract of the study published in November 2017 in the journal Climate Dynamics:

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings
This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ‘subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July–August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866–2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.”

Figure 1: Reconstruction of summertime July-August temperatures in Scotland over the past 800 years, based on tree rings. Source: Rydval et al. 2017.

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German Handelsblatt: Coal Energy Worldwide Is Booming… “Phaseout Nowhere Near In Sight”

By on 6. October 2018

The online German business daily Handelsblatt here writes that although Germany is pressing ahead to eliminate coal as a primary source of energy, the country ignores the fact that world is still very much in love with the plentiful and reliable fossil fuel source of energy.

Coal phaseout nowhere near in sight

And since Germany is well into phasing out nuclear power, the focus has switched to vilifying and shutting down coal-fired power plants and diesel vehicles – all in the name of stopping global warming and fine particle pollution.

Yet, the rest of the globe hardly shares Germany’s enthusiasm when it comes to transitioning to green energies. According to the Handelsblatt, “Worldwide the phasing out of coal is nowhere in sight.”

The Handelsblatt adds, “The 120 largest coal companies have around 1400 new power plants in planning or even under construction in 59 countries.”

1.5°C target will be missed by far

That would translate into the “currently installed capacity growing by a third,” the Handelsblatt writes.

Globally coal power continues to be added. According to environmental activist Heffa-Schücking: “We are going to greatly miss the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.”

Cheating China

Meanwhile some green activists have been trumpeting the claim that China in fact is halting the construction of coal power plants and aiming more and more to go green, parading China as a country whose example we need to follow.

However, qz.com here reports that this claim is likely a sham, and that many of these “halted” plants “are being built anyway”.

Citing CoalSwarm, a global network of researchers tracking fossil-fuel infrastructure, an analysis of satellite imagery as of July 2018 shows that the construction of some 75 plants “is still proceeding, despite the government orders”.

QZ.com reports:

China has been consuming as much as 17 percent more coal each year than reported, according to the new government figures. By some initial estimates, that could translate to almost a billion more tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere annually in recent years, more than all of Germany emits from fossil fuels.”

Clearly the German effort is not going lead the planet anywhere, except perhaps sending a signal about the economic and national security perils of going green.

Moreover, the Handelsblatt reports that China “is  exporting coal technology on a grand scale to other countries as well. Currently they are involved in projects in 17 countries that have capacity of about 60 gigawatts.”

That amount to is equivalent to Germany’s total electric power demand.

Posted in , | 15 Responses

“How Trolls Troll” …Nutrition Expert Posts Video On “Trolling” And How To Deal With Them

By on 5. October 2018

Many of you are aware that I’m also a big skeptic of the western dietary guidelines we’ve been handed down by the government over the past decades.

Claiming a vast consensus among nutritionists and physicians, government insisted the high carb, low fat diet was the healthiest. Well we all know how that all turned out. Pretty catastrophic!

Only now, after tens of millions of heart attacks and a global epidemic of diabetes, are nutrition skeptics finally getting heard. Yet these skeptics, believe it or not, are still getting trolled even after it has become crystal clear they were right all along.

One skeptic doctor, Dr. Darren Schmidt, was even compelled to produce a video on trolling after having put up with it for so long: How Trolls Troll.

In his video he produces a list of things to keep in mind when confronted by trolls, and tips on how to deal with them effectively.

Moral superiority, Godwin’s Law, refuse to learn

These tips of course apply to climate science, where skeptics are continuously trolled by alarmist bedwetters who insist the climate and planet are in crisis and refuse to hear or believe anything to the contrary.

The trolling described in the video will remind readers of the trolling that we often see at NoTricksZone and elsewhere.

What follows are cropped images of Dr. Schmidt’s list spliced together:

As you will notice, trolling uses the same playbook in climate science, e.g.:

  1. Assuming the moral high ground
  2. Often posting long convoluted diatribes
  3. Refuse to learn
  4. You’re wrong, no matter what.
  5. Disagree on everything.
  6. Insisting on the non-defendable

 

Posted in , , | 90 Responses

Tokyo Surface Temperature Shows No Trend Over Past Quarter Century…Cooling Now Accelerating

By on 4. October 2018

Co-written by Kirye

Tokyo is a huge, sprawling megapolis on the island nation of Japan. With its great urbanization over the past decades, observers could expect to see some warming at least from the urban heat island effect as well as from the “huge” warming the planet has allegedly seen globally over the past 30 years.

But in Tokyo this has not been the case, surprisingly.

The two charts that follow depict temperature data of Tokyo over the past years. The first chart shows the temperature trend for each month, January through December since 1988:

Looking at the chart, we can see that 6 months show a steady or even a cooling trend. Overall over the past 30 years, Tokyo has warmed modestly, but that warming trend, however, is mostly due to the colder years in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

When looking back at the past 24 years, Tokyo has been cooling off:

Data source above charts: 

Even more interesting is the fact that Japan’s capital and largest city has even seen an accelerating cooling over the recent years. The year 2017 was the coldest in over 20 years.

This contradicts claims of runaway warming that we often hear from climate warming alarmists.

Kyoto Cooling?

Also the trend is the same for the city of Kyoto, as is the case for many other cities in Japan:

Kyoto has shown a slight cooling over the past 20 years, as have many other cities in Japan. Data source:

Also the globe has been cooling since the peak that was brought on by the most recent powerful El Nino.

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CO2 Connection Demolished… New Findings: “No Statistically Significant Trends In US Flooding And Rainfall From Tropical Storms!

By on 3. October 2018

With the blaring headlines we saw in the wake of tropical storm Harvey over Houston last year and Florence over the Carolinas last month, the CO2 hysteria saw another severe flare up.

However, a scientific study recently published in the Journal of Hydrology analyzed North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and their contribution to flooding and rainfall across the US. Hat-tip: a reader.

The result?

No statistically significant trends in magnitude or frequency.

What follows is the paper’s abstract and main take-away points:

Adventurous scientific speculation

Also, leading Univ. of Alabama climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer dismissed any claimed connection between climate change and Hurricane Florence.

On the alarmist claim that hurricanes are slowing down due to jet stream changes, which allegedly result from climate, warming, which allegedly result from a greenhouse effect by added CO2, Spencer dumps cold water on it and seems to characterize the attempt as adventurous speculation:

But like most claims regarding global warming, the real effect is small, probably temporary, and most likely due to natural weather patterns. Any changes in hurricanes over 70 years, even if real, can easily be part of natural cycles — or incomplete data. Coastal lake sediments along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline from 1,000 to 2,000 years ago suggest more frequent and intense hurricanes than occur today. Why? No one knows.”

 

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China Pearl River Delta Sea Level Rise Earlier In The Holocene Was Far More Extreme Than Today

By on 2. October 2018

A recent study by Xiong et al titled Holocene sea-level history of the northern coast of South China Sea tells us that sea level rise today is total within the range of natural variability.

The scientists collected and analyzed seven sediment cores from the Pearl River delta, from which they generated 16 new and high-quality sea-level index points.

The paper’s abstract writes that the study “re-checked and re-calibrated the previously published sea-level data from China’s southeast coast with corrections made for tectonic subsidence and sediment compaction factors.”

The results, the authors report:

These sea-level data indicate a rise of relative sea level from −49.3 ± 0.8 m to the present height between 10,500 and 7000 cal. a BP. This sea-level history is similar to those recorded from other far-field locations and ice-volume equivalent sea-level models. The early to early-middle Holocene sea-level history in the study area shows a phase of accelerated rise at a rate increasing rapidly from 16.4 ± 6.1 mm/a at 10,500 cal. a BP to 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a at 9500 cal. a BP. This phase was followed by a period of rapid decrease in the rate of sea-level rise to 8.8 ± 1.9 mm/a at 8500 cal. a BP and 1.7 ± 1.3 mm/a at 7500 cal. a BP. During the past 7000 years, the relative sea level in the study area changed very little. This new and complete history of Holocene sea-level change supports the following findings: (1) no obvious higher-than-present sea-level highstand in the Holocene is found from the northern South China Sea; (2) certain proportion of the effects of the predicted glacial isostatic adjustment were cancelled out by the effects of the weak upper mantle viscosity in the study area; (3) meltwater pulse 1b likely exists spanning into the early Holocene; (4) there are significant misfit between sea-level data and glacial isostatic adjustment models, and a revision to the existing ice melting history for the early Holocene is possibly needed.”

Overall the study finds: “The rate of relative sea-level rise had varied and peaked at 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a around 9500 cal. a BP.”

When comparing today’s current sea level rise of just 2 mm/yr as measured from a vast array of tide gauges worldwide, we get the sense that this is puny in comparison to the changes the earth experienced over the Holocene (the past 10,000 years).

Sea levels were higher than today when CO2 was much lower

Also read here how 75 recent scientific publications show sea levels were 2 meters higher than they are today, even though CO2 in the atmosphere was much less at 265 ppm.

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