Global Warming Cancels Plattsburgh, New York, Winter Carnival…Because Of “Extreme Cold”!

Winter carnivals are popular, and naturally organizers hope to get cold and snow to make sure they go well.

Years ago global warming activists were warning that the days of winter carnivals were numbered, and that snow would be soon a thing of the past. Winter carnivals faced cancellations due to missing snow and balmy weather caused by manmade climate change.

This year the predictions of cancellation have finally come true – at least in Plattsburg, New York, this weekend. According to organizers, its scheduled annual carnival has been canceled – not because of a lack of snow and warm weather, but rather because of extreme cold. See forecast here.

Hat-tip: Indomitable Snowman

Temperatures this Saturday are forecast to plummet close to -30°C.

www.mychamplainvalley.com reports that the Carnival Committee spokesperson Allsion Hulbert Bruce says the decision was made on Thursday because they don’t want their volunteers or area families “exposed to the elements this weekend” … “We just think it’s safer for everyone.”

 

Arctic Sea Ice Trend May Have Turned The Corner As Ice Volume Picks Up Over Past 5 Years

As Arctic sea ice approaches its annual maximum level for the year, now is a good time to look at how it stands – especially in what some are claiming to be the hottest year on record.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) here shows currently Arctic sea ice is at its highest level in years for this time of the year. Hat-tip: Kirye at Twitter.

Sea ice extent in recent years (in million km2) for the northern hemisphere, as a function of date.

In fact it appears it has reached its highest level ever over the last decade, and its only mid February. The DMI ice extent values are calculated from the data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice, the site reports.

On the other hand, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) here reports that January, 2016, saw the lowest Arctic sea ice extent (15%) on the satellite record. Other sources depicting 15% sea ice concentration extent also show similar low values.

The overall trend, however, shows nothing alarming. The following chart from the Cryosphere Today of the Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois shows Arctic sea ice remaining flat over the past decade.

The chart above actually shows a slightly upwards trend over the past 5 years, which is also confirmed by the following Arctic sea ice volume trend from PIOMASS:

Overall, globally, sea ice extent is depicted by the following NSDIC chart:

Source: climate4you.com, U. of Oslo Dept. of Geosciences.

According to the NSIDC, global sea ice has in fact been trending upwards over the past decade.

 

“Acoustic Torture” …Austrian Chamber Of Physicians Warns Of Health Hazards From Large-Size Wind Turbines

Once dismissed as something merely imagined by people close to industrial wind turbines, health disorders caused by infrasound are emerging as being very real.

Austrian site www.ots.at here has a press release by the Vienna Chamber of Physicians warning of health hazards from large-scale wind turbines, citing “comprehensive studies”. It calls for a minimum setback distance from built-up areas.

The OTS writes that noise from wind turbines is increasingly coming under the focus of scientific studies. Low frequency infrasound (< 20 Hz) was dismissed by wind energy proponents, but rapidly mounting evidence show the problem is more serious than first thought.

As part of the “International Noise Awareness Day” the Austrian Chamber of Physicians warns that today’s large size wind turbines have a blade diameter as large as a football pitch and a blade tip speed near 300 km/hr. They therefore create noise in the infrasound frequency range, which is known to cause health problems. Physician Piero Lercher of the Chamber of physicians: say:

Our target must be to prevent sleep disorder, psychological affects and irreversible damage to hearing from the noise such as that produced by wind turbines.”

The press release reports of increasing complaints stemming from low frequency infrasound and says studying the health impacts “is essential”.

Lercher adds that another component may be at play:

Perception disorders of persons living nearby are thought to be perhaps triggered by a nocebo’ effect .”

Anti-wind energy group windwahn.de here thanks the physicians from Vienna for looking at the concerns of residents seriously, as many are ill and others are confronted by the threat of years of “acoustic torture” from proposed wind projects. Windwhn cites studies from all around the world and that it is time for Germany to wake up to this reality. The site writes:

We can no longer ignore the one third of residents in wind power regions who are sound injured and have serious health consequences!”

For more information contact:

Chamber of Physicians for Vienne – Press Center
Dr. Hans-Peter Petutschnig
Tel.: (++43-1) 51501/1223
hpp@aekwien.at

Solar Report January 2016 …Current Solar Cycle Quietest In Almost 200 Years As “Triple Whammy” Approaches!

The Sun in January 2016!

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The largest mass of our solar system (99.8% of the total mass) was also rather quiet in January. The determined solar sunspot number (SSN) was 56.6, which is 71% of the mean this far into the period, calculated using the 23 previously measured solar cycles.

Figure 1: Plot of the monthly sunspot number so far for the current cycle (red line) compared to the mean solar cycle (blue line) and the similar solar cycle no. 5 (black).

The earlier peak occurring at month number 35 (fall 2011) signaled the time of the SSN maximum at the sun’s northern hemisphere. The later peaks occurring at about month no. 68 (mid 2014) are the SSN maximum for the sun’s southern hemisphere. What follows is a plot of all cycles, showing the accumulated number of sunspots over the first 86 months into the cycle:

Figure 2: Comparison of sunspot activity for every cycle occurring since 1755. the values represent the deviation from the mean SSN (blue curve in Figure 1).

There are about 3 more years to go before the end of solar cycle no. 24 is reached. When it is finished we will very likely see the red bar representing solar cycle no. 24 in Figure 2 winding up well below that of solar cycle no. 7, which was the last occurring during the Dalton Minimum. That cycle had much more activity in the end phase than what we are seeing in the current cycle.

Prognoses here, however, are fraught with huge uncertainty, as “solar weather” defies all forecasting attempts and no one can say with any certainty what can be expected to happen over the next two years – except for over the long run, the current cycle will end in a rather quiet fashion.

========================
Note from NoTricksZone:

The combination of recent North Atlantic cooling, the projected coming La Niña, and the expected period of low solar activity may see the planet cooling over the next 10 years as fast as it warmed during a few short years in the 1990s. Joe Bastardi’s “Triple Whammy of Cooling” truly is taking shape.

German Authorities Open Investigation Into Wind Energy Corruption …”In Part A Criminal Business”…Only A Few Profit

Yesterday I wrote about how wind park planners and the city councilmen who recklessly approve them may be held personally liable for damage to health that they cause, primarily through infrasound.  With locals wind parks, too often crony deals are involved and legitimate opposition gets brushed aside or squashed. The result is often a select few end up lining their pockets while the rest are left to suffer.

A few days ago the German language NWZ mobil here reported on a heated wind park controversy that is boiling over in northwest Germany, writing that “state attorneys are now opening investigations on the profiteers of big money wind energy and how planned wind parks are dividing communities“.

The NWZ mobil writes:

Wind energy makes some rich, the others sick, as tensions peak at the North Sea coast.”

The controversy swirls around opposition to a planned wind park expansion near the home of Wolfgang Mänzel in the village Stedesdorf.

NWZ mobil reports Mänzel at first was enthusiastic about wind parks near in his community, and even invested in the nearby “Citizens’ Wind Park Stedesdorf” nearby, with the hopes of reaping returns. But all that has since changed.

The returns on the investment have been disappointing and investors such as Mänzel have since realized that the business opportunity was never meant to make them rich at all, but rather was set up “to help raise the acceptance for wind energy out in the countryside by using financial incentives,” The NWZ mobil writes. In reality the terms of the investment scheme were all along designed to make a select group of planners and councilmen rich, but not the small investors.

Its no surprise that in Stedesdorf those really profiting the most are now trying to expand the wind park by another 5 turbines. But Wolfgang Mänzel and others feel they were misled by some of the councilmen. It turns out three of the them have a direct stake in the expansion project and stand to profit even more handsomely.  Now there are growing accusations of corruption and the town stands bitterly divided amid a thickening atmosphere of distrust and deep suspicion.

The NWZ mobil writes that wind energy critics and opponents now live in an atmospheres of threats and hostility. The NWZ mobil reports:

Wind energy is a multi-million euro business: high state subsidies, guaranteed for years, paid for by the power consumers.

Wind energy is in part a criminal business. Not only local politicians are profiting. The mafia launders money by investing in wind parks.”

To protest the seemingly self-serving projects, in October 2015 Mänzel and others founded a citizens initiative against the wind park expansion, and published an open letter to make the affair more public. The recent accusations of corruption have since led to authorities launching an investigation of the “Stedesdorf Wind Park”.

The NWZ reports:

At the state prosecutor’s office in Osnabruck, two anonymous reports of wrongdoing have been filed at the end of January against five partners. Now the state attorney’s office in Celle is investigating for possible bribes to parliamentarians.”

Welcome to the real world of German “green energy”.

In the meantime there has been some good news. NDR television here reports that the additional 5 turbines that had been planned to be added have been overwhelmingly rejected by local citizens, with 80% voting against them – though the vote is non-binding.

 

Germany: City Council Members Approving Wind Parks May Face Personal Liability For Damage To Health!

The legal winds are shifting! Many city councils and wind park planners are going to have to clean up their acts when pushing through their pet wind park projects.

Germany’s Fundamental Law specifically expresses that the State is obligated to protect the life and physical body of the individual, foremost from illegal attacks by others.

Consequently, according to German legal experts Prof. Michael Elicker and Andreas Langenbahn here, city councils approving the installation of wind parks may be held personally liable for damage to the health of persons who live close to them.

And when it comes to wind parks, even if only a certain part of the population are susceptible to the health hazards of infrasound (frequency below 20 Hz), it does not preclude the requirement being complied with. They write (my emphasis):

If the state (in this sense the term also includes the towns and communities) allows large wind parks to be constructed at a completely inadequate distance – at times only a few hundred meters – then it violates the state obligation to protect and may be held liable for the health consequences.

With this backdrop there are large risks also for communities and their participants if during the planning of so-called “wind-park priority areas” they willingly follow along with the ‘considerations of the contracted planning companies, of whom most of them belong to – and the term is indeed appropriate – the ecological-industrial complex.”

In Germany this puts city councils who onesidedly base their decisions to build wind parks on dubious planning/approval processes and feasibility studies squarely in the legal line of fire.

Too often windpark approvals are fraught with conflicts of interest and crony deals. Finally in Germany the spotlight is getting aimed at the dark underside of the renewable energy industry and their tactics used in ramming projects through against the will of the people.

Also city councils and wind park planers are finding it increasingly difficult to dismiss infrasound produced by wind turbines by claiming that “it cannot be proven scientifically”.

Experts Elicker and Langenbahn calls claims there is no scientific evidence supporting the health hazards of infrasound “false” and that the State is in any case obligated to protect life and body of persons not only after a hazard is conclusively proven.

The authors of the report write that it is extremely difficult to dampen the very low frequency infrasound and that it can travel for kilometers, noting that contrary to wide-spread belief, the frequency is audible, and that it is perceived as pulsations and vibrations.

Even Germany’s Ministry of Environment writes, summing the results of investigations and contradicting earlier claims, that starting at a certain acoustic level, infrasound can have a variety of negative effects on the human body and can interfere with the cardio-vascular system, adversely effect concentration, reaction time, balance and the nervous system. Victims often complain of dizziness.

Elicker and Langenbahn believe that many councilmen and planners have been too careless in their dismissal of infrasound when planning their wind parks. They write that this could all lead to a “rude awakening” for those involved in the slipshod approval of wind parks, and warn they may even be personally liable with their own private assets.

High time.

Also see: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCJh03-BpG4

Sudden Arctic Stratospheric Warming Event Could Mean The Worst Of Europe’s Winter May Still Be Ahead!

At German climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaerumund.de here, author “Schneefan” writes about the Arctic stratosphere and potential polar vortices blasting into Europe before winter makes an exit.

He writes that models had calculated a warming of the stratosphere over parts of the Arctic, and this is now indeed taking place. And that warming has been strong and rapid. What does such an upper atmosphere warming mean? Schneefan writes it leads to a disturbed polar circulation, which leads us “to expect additional cold surprises over the earth’s northern hemisphere“.

GFS-Analyse der Temperaturen der untern Stratosphäre in rund 16 km Höhe (100 hPa). Über Kanada hat sich die Luft stark erwärmt, wie die roten/braunen Farben zeigen. Quelle:

GFS analysis of temperatures in the lower stratosphere at 16 km altitude (100 hPa). Over Canada the air has warmed strongly. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/mct.

Moreover at the upper stratosphere at about 30 km elevation (10 hPa) the rash warming has been interrupted, as the following chart depicts:

NOAA/CPC-Analyse der Temperatuen in der oberen Stratosphäre in 10 hPa (rund 30 km Höhe). Nach einer raschen Erwärmung erfolgt aktuell eine ebenso rasche Abkühlung (DOY=Day Of Year). Quelle:

NOAA/CPC analysis of temperatures over the Arctic (90N – 65 N) in the upper stratosphere at 10 hPa (approx. 30 km altitude).  DOY=Day Of Year. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/.

The interrupted upper stratosphere warming eventually led to the interruption working its way down to the lower stratosphere 18 km altitude (70 hPa) just a bit later:

NOAA/CPC-Analyse der Temperatuen in der unteren Stratosphäre in 70 hPa (rund 18 km Höhe). Nach einer raschen Erwärmung erfolgt aktuell eine Abkühlung (DOY=Day Of Year). Quelle:

NOAA/CPC analysis of temperatures in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa (about 18 km altitude). After a minor warming  cooling has since taken over(DOY=Day Of Year). Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/.

This warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic leads to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), Schneefan writes, which in turn leads to polar vortices plowing down into the middle latitudes, as was the case in mid January, 2016.

NOAA-Prognose (rote Linien in der oberen Grafik) für die Arktische Oszillation (AO) vom 4.1.2016 für die kommenden zwei Wochen. Die schwarze Linie stellt die gemessenen Werte dar. Die Prognose zeigt im Februar 2016 einen Absturz der AO-Werte in den negativen Bereich, was auf einen stark gestörten arktischen Polarwirbel hindeutet. Quelle:

NOAA prognosis (red line in the upper chart) for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) dated February 5, 2016, for the upcoming two weeks. The black line shows a drop into the negative range in mid February – down to -2, That would mean a strong polar vortex. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml.

Yet the prognosis for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – contrary to the the (cold) values seen in January – remains slightly in the positive range, which would point to mild weather just ahead for Western and Central Europe:

NOAA-Prognose fpr die Nordatlantische Oszillation (NAO) vom 5.2.2016 für die kommenden zweo Wochen. Die Werte beliben im positiven Bereich, was für West- und Mitteleuropa eine anhlatende Westdrift und damit mildere Temperaturen bedeuteten würde. Quelle:

NOAA prognosis for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from February 5, 2016, for the upcoming 2 weeks. The values are expected to remain in the positive range, which would mean mild westerly winds persisting. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/shtml.

However stratospheric prognoses point to a continued tendency toward a major warming/SSW) already in just a few days, which would mean that in 3 to 10 days colder weather for Western and Central Europe:

ECMWF-Prognose für Druck (Geopotential) und Temperatur der oberen Stratatosphäre in 10 hPa (rund 30 km Höhe) vom 23.1. für den 1.2.2016. Mit Kern über Ost-Sibirien hat sich warme Luft mit hohem Druck entwickelt und den kalten Polarwirbel in Richtung Nordatlantik mit Kern östlich von Grönland abgedrängt. Die Temperaturdifferenz zwischen dem 90. und dem 60. Breitengrad ist von derzeit - 17°C auf +41°C stark angestiegen. Quelle:

ECMWF prognosis of 5 February 2016 for pressure and temperature of the upper stratosphere 10 hPa (approx. 30 km elevation) for 8 February 2016. The cold polar vortex is positioned over eastern Greenland.  The cold pole of the northern hemisphere is over Scotland (C=Cold). The cold pole is set to shift over Europe. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produktehtml.

Such major warmings of the stratosphere last happened in 2012 and 2013 – in January, after which a very cold February followed in 2012, and an historically severe cold March gripped Europe in 2013 respectively.

Eisiger Februar 2012 in Europa. Quelle: wie vor

Cold February of 2012. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/.

 

Eisiger Jahrhundert-März 2013 in Europa. Quelle: wie vor

Historic cold March of 2013. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/.

So, Schneefan writes, Europeans should not be writing off the winter just yet, as many meteorologists seem to have been doing over the past week or so. Weather is always a big bag filled with surprises. Things can go from mild to brutally cold awfully quickly.

 

The Hazards of Veganism: U of Graz Study Showing Vegetarians Are Unhealthier, More Mentally Disturbed, Goes Viral!

SteakAlmost 2 years ago I reported here on a comprehensive study conducted by the Austrian University of Graz showing vegans and vegetarians tend to have significantly more mental disorders and health issues than meat-loving people.

Photo credit: Alpha, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

Well, that post has been brought back the public’s attention – and how! Over the past couple of days it has taken off and gone viral, being shared or liked at Facebook over a quarter million times.

Obviously people have been asking why some environmentally active and veggie-leaning people are acting so weird, irrational and at times even hysterical, especially when it comes to climate change. Looks like nutrition may actually be one factor here – in addition to the sorrowful state of Western education and academia.

Nutrition is often a seriously under-estimated factor when it comes to our health – really! Being deficient in just one or two vitamins, and/or minerals or trace elements is enough to make any person seriously ill. Poor nutrition during pregnancy can lead to severe birth defects. Nutritional deficiencies are also often the root cause of mental illness and depression. Too often people totally under-estimate the role of nutrition in their health.

The now famous University of Graz study came up with some sobering findings:

1. Vegetarians are more often ill and have a lower quality of living than meat-eaters.

2. Vegetarians showed 166% higher cancer rates (4.8% to 1.8%).

3. Vegans had a 150% higher rate of heart attacks (1.5% to 0.6%).

4. Vegetarian’s show more psychological disorders than meat eaters.

5. They are a greater burden on the health care system.

6. Vegetarians have twice as many allergies as big meat-eaters.

I don’t want to discourage people from eating vegetarian diets, as these can be highly beneficial IF they include eggs, dairy products and fish on a regular basis. For example for people who suffer from obesity, the vegetarian diet can actually be therapeutic if not taken to an extreme – and done over a limited period, monitored by a competent physician.

However, people who are considering the vegan lifestyle – one that rejects the consumption of almost every animal-based food product – they absolutely need to be extremely wary. The draconian diet often FALSELY promises health. Most experts will tell you that veganism is a very risky and potentially dangerous diet – especially for children and pregnant women.

By nature the human organism, forged by some 3 million years of evolution, is an omnivore and thus is designed to consume, digest and metabolize both animal and plant-based foods. A balanced diet is imperative for maintaining good health. Deny this at your own risk.

I recommend the following video for starters (hat-tip DirkH): www.youtube.com/v=3vr-c8GeT34

 

Unreliable Power: Major Technical Failure Sidelines Another Offshore Wind Park…Adding To Exploding Costs

I’ve reported earlier on Germany’s BARD 1 offshore engineering fiasco, where technical problems continue plaguing the wind park and has yet to deliver power on shore to reach markets. Even today the situation there remains unclear.

Moreover, just days I ago I reported how an expert institute confirmed that offshore wind park installations are highly vulnerable to the harsh sea conditions and plagued by stratospheric maintenance costs.

Well there is another major wind park that is now struggling with major technical problems and thus will not be able to deliver power until at least (optimistically) April. The giant offshore Riffgat wind park hasn’t delivered power since November of last year, so reports NDR German public broadcasting here. Hat-tip Gerti at FaceBook

Riffgatt offshore windpark

 North German NDR public broadcasting reports on the shut down of the Riffgat offshore wind park, located in the North Sea. Image source: www.riffgat.de/riffgat/windpark/

Failed underwater power transmission cable

According to NDR, the power supply has been interrupted due to a failed underwater power transmission cable that serves to deliver the power onshore. That means a loss of 7 million euros per month in revenue, which the consumers will have to pay because Germany’s feed-in act required power companies to pay for the electricity produced by win parks even if it is never delivered. If that sounds strange, it is so because the market-hostile law is the sort of thing one would find only in old communist regimes.

The NDR clip reports that the reason for the failed cable is unclear, and could be caused by an error during installation or during the production itself. The cable fault itself is 22 kilometers from the wind park, just east of Borkum Island. Normally repairing the cable would be a routine matter, but there’s one big problem:  the seabed is riddled by old WWII munitions, which first need to be removed before repair works can start.

The Riffgat website here says the wind park consists of 30 units 3.6 megawatt-class wind turbines located some 15 kilometer away from the North Sea island of Borkum near the Netherlands. Each wind turbine has a 120 meter rotor diameter and the hub height is 90 meters. The turbines are firmly anchored by 70-meter steel bases rammed 40 meters into the seabed.

The Riffgat wind park also has a transformer station that feeds the power to the seabed transmission cable, which in turn delivers the converted power on shore. The Riffgat wind park is operated by Oldenburg-based power company EWE.

The NDR clip reports that EWE is not really too concerned about the technical problem and that it is not receiving 7 million euros worth of power each month. This is so because grid and transmission cable operator Tenet is required to pay EWE the money whether the power gets delivered or not. And where is Tenet going to get that kind of money? You guessed it! The costs, like everything else with the German Energiewende, just get passed on to the lowly consumers.

 

2016 And 2017 Hurricane Seasons To Be “Most Dangerous And Costly In Over 10 Years”, Former NOAA Meteorologist Warns

The first 2016 hurricane season predictions are starting to come out. And if the one by Global Weather Oscillations is on the right track, then US coastal areas may want to already start bracing for greater hurricane activity.

Hurricane_Isabel_Mike Trenchard

Hurricane Isabel. Photo by Mike Trenchard, Earth Sciences & Image Analysis Laboratory , Johnson Space Center. Public Domain

In fact this year we should expect US hurricanes to very likely play a crucial role in the US presidential elections, especially amid the climate change hysteria within the mainstream media and Democrat alarmist politicians. Recall what happened in 2012.

Strongest in over 4 years

Former NOAA meteorologist David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) says the 2016 and 2017 Atlantic hurricane seasons will be the strongest in over 4 years, and have the most United States hurricane landfalls since 11 were experienced during the destructive seasons of 2004 and 2005.

GWO has issued the most accurate predictions of any organization over the past 7 years, and says that unlike the past three hurricane seasons, which were dominated by hostile atmospheric conditions that subdued hurricane activity, the next few years will be in a “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” that will provide very favorable conditions for development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to December 1, and on the average has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 or 3 major hurricanes. The 2015 hurricane season officially ended with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Hurricane Alex formed on January 14th of this year, only 6 weeks following the official ending of the 2015 season – but nearly 5 months prior to the beginning of the 2016 hurricane season. Alex was officially called the first hurricane of the 2016 Hurricane Season, based on the January to December Gregorian January – not the natural climate and weather calendar that drives development of tropical storms during a season.

But with Hurricane Alex being more closely attached to the 2015 into early 2016 El Niño and the climate season – this means the 2015 hurricane season actually had 1 additional named storm and hurricane. This brings the total for the 2015 season up to 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is very close to the long term average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

El Niños normally suppress hurricanes, but…

The numbers for the 2015 season are very important when it comes to predicting the upcoming hurricane seasons. The occurrence of an El Niño during a hurricane season typically suppresses the number of named storms significantly – but it did not in 2015 – and this is a signal for what is in-store the next few seasons.

CEO David Dilley of GWO says the combination of the El Niño ending before the 2016 hurricane season, and the high number of named storms (12) connected to the 2015 season, signals that a “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” is now in place, and this will provide very favorable atmospheric conditions for hurricane development and landfalls during the next couple of years.

Most dangerous and costly in over 10 years

Mr. Dilley predicts the upcoming 2016 and 2017 seasons will be much stronger than the past three seasons, and it will likely be the most dangerous and costly period in over 10 years. The 2016 season will have 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Three of the GWO United States prediction zones are at high risk for hurricane conditions in 2016. One of the zones has a high risk for a major impact hurricane. The 2017 season will be more dangerous and costly than 2016, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and several of the GWO prediction zones will be at high risk for major impact hurricanes. Over the two year period, GWO expects 5 to 8 United States Hurricane Hot Spots.

Models predict hurricanes 2 to 3 years in advance

GWO is the only organization that issues detailed preseason predictions two years into the future for 11 United States prediction zones from New England to Texas. GWO’s predictions have been the most accurate of any organization the past 7 years, and GWO is the only organization that predicted the occurrence of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Hurricanes Irene and Sandy were predicted 2 to 3 years in advance.

What makes GWO standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO’s “Climate Pulse Technology” (CPT). The CPT prediction model incorporates natural mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather and climate cycles, which in-turn control future hurricane paths. Research over the past 30 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have different weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, GWO then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane seasons, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.

GWO Webinars, detailed hurricane zone predictions, prediction performance over the past 7 years, graphics, and the “free” climate change e-book “Earth’s Natural Climate Pulse” (authored by David Dilley) can be acquired through the Global Weather Oscillatlions web site. In addition, an interactive electronic subscription to the GWO’s hurricane predictions can also be acquired through GWO’s working partner XtremeGIS the risk management division of the Wall Street Network.

87% accuracy

When GWO predicts a high probability for hurricane conditions within one of their prediction zones, it is red-flagged as a hurricane or tropical storm “Hot Spot”. GWO’s hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by companies and other organizations. GWO is the only organization that predicts hurricane conditions for specific zones, and for up to 4 years in advance. Detailed predictions for the 11 hurricane zones can be obtained by going to the Global Weather Oscillations web site.

 

Offshore Wind Turbine Maintenance Cost Fiasco: “100 Times More Expensive Than A New Turbine Itself”!

A press release by Germany’s Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft reports how offshore North and Baltic Sea wind turbines need to be in operation for 25 years before they become profitable, but that they are prone to shortened lifespans due to rust from the harsh sea environment.

As a result the wind turbine installations need extra and very costly maintenance to ensure that they survive long enough. It’s turning out to be an insurmountable challenge.

Maintenance to turbines cannot be done at a dry dock, rather, because they are permanently fixed out to sea, repair work and maintenance have to be done offshore in raw and windy conditions. Not only is this expensive, but it also puts the lives and limbs of repair personnel at risk.

This is the reason engineers and researchers are trying to find ways to better protect offshore wind power systems from the brutal elements. Protection of vulnerable metal surfaces is planned to be achieved by developing and applying new surface films, but this is still very much in development.

100 times the cost of a new turbine

The figure that is especially astonishing about offshore wind power turbines is that the “maintenance and repair costs of offshore wind turbines over the years add up to be a hundred times the cost of the new turbine itself,” says Peter Plagemann of the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Technology and Applied Material Science (IFAM) in Bremen.

Plagemann adds (my emphasis):

While a metal coating during the construction of a turbine on land can cost up to 20 to 30 euros per square meter, it can be several thousand euros for offshore turbines.”

This is yet just another huge and costly technical obstacle faced by offshore windparks. It’s going to be an expensive mess come clean-up time.

 

Central Europe January Mean Temperature Trend Continues Downward …Global January Temp To Miss Record

Germany’s DWD national weather service has released the preliminary mean temperature for the country for January, 2016.
The data show the month was 1.2°C above the long-term mean.

So far the European winter has been a mild one – thanks to a persistent mild weather pattern that has brought warm and moist Atlantic air over the continent most of the time since early November. That pattern led to December 2015 setting an all-time record for the month for Germany. In January the westerly pattern go interrupted twice by polar air.

Overall the DWD remains silent on the overall trend. The January mean temperature trend continues downward. It’s not warming; it is cooling as the chart prepared by Josef Kowatsch shows:

D_2016_01 Temp

The chart shows the temperature anomaly from the long-term mean since 1988.

And despite the current massive El Nino, meteorologist Joe Bastardi shows at his weekly Saturday Summary that globally January temperatures failed to set a new record, according to what Joe calls the gold standard for measuring global temperature, NCEP. The month so far is coming in at 0.556°C above the mean.

2016_Jan NCEP

Warm, but not the warmest. January 2016Source: here:

What’s more, Tony Heller at Real Science here shows us that NASA has been busy rewriting history by adjusting past temperatures data. Back in the 1970s, NASA data were showing a rapid cooling since the 1940s. Over the past years NASA has been busily rewriting the data, and consequently the mid 20th century cooling has disappeared, á la George Orwell.

 

How The High Fat / Low Carb Diet Dropped My Weight And Triglyceride Level

O/t today. I want to share how I lost 20 lbs and totally reduced my triglyceride level, an important factor for heart health.

In his video here, Prof. Ken Sikaris explains why triglyceride level in the blood today is a critical barometer for monitoring your cardiovascular risk and why cholesterol levels are not the crucial factors to watch. Almost everything we’ve been told about evil fat and cholesterol over the past 4 decades is wrong.

So much for consensus.

Sikaris gives us insight on why a high-fat/low-carb diet is healthier for most people. LDL cholesterol, he says, is actually good and has been given a bad name. The real enemy is sugar and refined carbohydrates.

I also used to believe all the cholesterol, low-fat consensus nonsense and 4 years ago found myself some 20 pounds overweight at the age of 52. I had resigned to accepting a future of deteriorating health – just all part of getting older. Then one day my blood pressure got stuck at 180 over 110, and I had the feeling my heart was threatening to go on strike. After an EKG and other tests my doctor put me on beta-blockers and advised me to lose weight by cutting out fat from the diet. Immediately I intensified the old low-fat diet – but no matter how hard I tried to lose weight, nothing worked.

Then 2 years ago, (age 54) I saw a video by Dr. David Diamond (hat-tip DirkH) which resonated, and it showed me how for years and years I had had it all wrong. In it Diamond tells the story of how he solved his weight and heart problems: by going on a high-fat / low carb-diet.

So I also gave it shot and eliminated much of the high carb foods, replacing them with the very foods we were told were killers: eggs, cheese, butter, meat, high fat dairy products, etc. Potatoes got replaced by lots of vegetables and moderate levels of fruit. Nuts and dark (80+%) chocolate has since become a common snack for me.

The results were almost immediate. Everything Diamond said was indeed true. Some two years later, today, I’m pleased to present the latest results:

Triglycerides_Weight Chart

As the chart shows, 2 years ago I was closing in on 90 kilograms (198 lbs.) and my triglyceride level was at an unhealthy 285 mg/dl. In late March 2014 I switched over to the HFLC diet and within 4 months (by August 2014) lost over 6 kilograms (close to 15 lbs) and triglycerides dropped to 122, below the recommended 150 upper limit.

The best thing is that I didn’t need to count calories. I simply ate until I felt satisfied. The cravings and blood sugar roller coaster disappeared. I avoid glutens as well, which for surprisingly many people can make a big difference.

Last week I got back the latest blood results and I’ve plotted my triglycerides, which is now down to a very healthy 94, see above. I’m also off the beta blockers and blood pressure is back to normal. There have been also lots of other benefits, like more energy, better digestion, much happier, etc. Today my weight is stable at about 175 lbs (80 kg).

What’s shocking is that there are still lots of doctors who still believe and preach all the cholesterol nonsense from 40 years ago.

 

Billionaire Environmentalist Coral-Reef Destruction Yacht Club Allegedly Has A New Member: Microsoft’s Paul Allen!

It’s annoying enough watching green-preaching, limousine liberals go public and demand ordinary people scale back their lives to protect the environment and climate, and then scoot away on a private jet – or mega-yacht. For example, see here, herehere, here, here and here.

yacht

Mega-yachts at the port of Porto Cervo, Sardinia. Photo credit: Heinz-Josef Lücking; CC BY-SA 3.0 de

But what is really infuriating is seeing billionaires recklessly and senselessly rip up and destroy coral reef as they indulge in the forbidden profligacy. Coral reefs, after all, are said to be crucial for the very survival of the world’s ecosystem – or something like that.

Democrat Jeff Greene

Back in 2010, while reporting on John Kerry’s environmental hypocrisy, NTZ mentioned how billionaire Democrat Jeff Greene’s three-story, 145-foot luxury yacht, Summerwind, maneuvered above the famous barrier reef along the coast of Belize and dropped anchor, causing irreparable damage. Despite all the (little people) witnesses, Greene denies the incident. Read about it here as well.

The tampabay.com reports that Greene’s Summerwind had a fuel consumption of 50 gallons an hour, adding:

Greene bought Summerwind in 2003, registering it in the Marshall Islands, a well-known tax haven. The yacht has traveled across the world, hosting Greene, family members and celebrities including Lindsay Lohan.

Now, just days ago, Reuters here reports that Greene may be not alone in the suspected, ultra-exclusive billionaire mega-yachting coral reef destruction club. Hat-tip DirkH.

Paul Allen’s yacht alleged rips up 14,000 sq. ft.

Allegedly joining Greene is billionaire Microsoft Corp co-founder Paul Allen, whose “massive luxury yacht…destroyed most of a protected coral reef during a visit to the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean earlier this month”.

And why on earth was the yacht on its way to the Cayman Islands? Gee, what a mystery. That aside, Reuters reports on the yacht belonging to the environmentally active Allen:

An anchor chain from the vessel damaged nearly 14,000 square feet (1,300 square meters), or about 80 percent, of reef near two scuba diving sites in the West Bay”.

According to the report, Allen’s yacht is a 300+ foot 5-deck unit, with helicopter pads for ferrying passengers and guests.

Environmental cheapskates

You’d think the deep-pocketed billionaires would feel a bit beat up about the damage and simply pay out the pocket-change dimensioned fines and be done with it. But Reuters writes that the billionaires are also environmental cheapskates: “…the Cayman government has been unable to collect fines after a number of similar incidents over the last few years.”

 

Two German Scientists Say GISS Has “Squandered Much Credibility” …Playing A “Shady Role”

Vahrenholt_LüningBy Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Photo: Vahrenholt/Lüning; Source: DkS

The GISS-Institute of NASA is playing a shady role in the climate debate. For years it was directed by creedal climate activist James Hansen, and has since squandered much credibility. Now his years-long colleague Gavin Schmidt is at the helm, also an activist. Dubious data alterations with the GISS datasets will likely become interesting material for science historians.

GISS went public with a press release on December 18, 2015. The first part of the release was quite reasonable. Indeed we should not neglect calibrating the models with the known temperature history. Various climate factors have been at play and all had impacts in their own way:

Examination of Earth’s Recent History Key to Predicting Global Temperatures
Estimates of future global temperatures based on recent observations must account for the differing characteristics of each important driver of recent climate change, according to a new NASA study published Dec. 14 in the journal Nature Climate Change. To quantify climate change, researchers need to know the Transient Climate Response (TCR) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of Earth. Both values are projected global mean surface temperature changes in response to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations but on different timescales. TCR is characteristic of short-term predictions, up to a century out, while ECS looks centuries further into the future, when the entire climate system has reached equilibrium and temperatures have stabilized.”

Very good, we thought. Did GISS finally realize that CO2 sensitivity had been over-estimated for years? See our earlier reports on the subject:

No chance. After the good introduction came the return to the climate alarmism mode: Climate sensitivity is not lower, rather it is higher than previously thought, Schmidt & Co spin. Anyone wishing to read the sad story in its entirety can do so at their press release.

Climate Change Now Damaging Leo DiCaprio’s Love Life?

Caught at climate denial? Leonardo DiCaprio and model Kelly Rohrbach split
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin. Note: Quotes by DiCaprio translated from the German)

On December 30, 2015, the Bauer Media Group made an important announcement with a press release:

Leonardo DiCaprio in TV movie: “My partner has to believe in climate change.”

Hamburg (ots) – In ‘The Revenant’ (Release: 6 January 2016) Leonardo DiCaprio plays the role of a hunter set in the year 1823 where he fights to survive in the wilderness. To make the movie as realistic as possible, director Iñárritu rolled the film in the most remote and harsh conditions. ‘We were constantly struggling with the cold temperatures”, complained DiCaprio in a talk with TV Movie (Edition 1/2016, EVT 30 December 2015). ‘Foremost our face and hands suffered under the extreme cold. At times the temperatures hovered around -40°C.’

One uncomfortable experience was the eating of bison liver. ‘That was pretty extreme, but of course it doesn’t compare to what they had to do in the wilderness back then,’ says the 41-year old. ‘But I already knew beforehand what I was in for. I didn’t expect I would have much fun during the filming.’ Shooting at other locations in other parts of the world were nicer. ‘Among the most impressive was a trip to the Amazon. It is beautiful there,’ admires DiCaprio. As a friend of nature and environmentalist, ecological commitment is a must in a relationship: ‘I could never be together with someone who doesn’t believe in climate change.’

Advisory to editors:

The complete interview with Leonardi DiCaprio appears in the TV Movie (Issue 1/2016, EVT 30 December 2015). The press release is free to publish with the provision of the source: ‘TV Movie’. For editorial questions, contact Rüdiger Rapke, Editor, TV Movie, Telephone: (+49) 40/3019-3666.”

Erdbeerlounge.de suspects DiCaprio recently split up with model Kelly Rohrbach because he discovered her climate denial:

Solo again? Leonardo DiCaprio: climate change the reason for calling it off?
With Leonardo DiCaprio things just refuse to work out on matters surrounding love: Now his relationship with model Kelly Rohrbach supposedly has failed. Were opposing views on climate change the reason for suddenly splitting? DAccording to Leo, it is a criterion for an immediate split.”

Read more at erdbeerlounge.de.”

Cold Shock Claims Dozens Of Lives In Tropical Asia Amid Record Lows…Taiwanese See Snow First Time In Their Lives!

2016_Jan_Asia_3For a planet that is supposedly seeing one record hot year after another, it sure strange is that there’s so much cold gripping vast areas of Asia.

Chart right: East Asia is forecast to remain extremely frigid over the foreseeable future.

Snowless winters, which according to climate scientists were supposed to become a thing of the past at middle latitudes, are now failing to materialize even down in the tropics in places like Thailand!

Switzerland’s online news site NZZ here reports that a cold wave has swept across Thailand and claimed 14 cold-related deaths.

First snow in 115 years!

The same NZZ reports here that Okinawa saw its second only snowfall since historical measurements began. The Swiss news site writes that on the Japanese island of Amamioshima “snow fell for the first time in 115 years“.

Dozens die of cold in Taiwan

Russian news site RT wrote that dozens have died of cold in Taiwan since Saturday as a result of “a rare cold snap sweeping through East Asia“. The RT reports:

Taiwan’s Central News Agency reports fatalities may have already reached 85. The majority of those deaths were reported in the capital Taipei, as well as New Taipei city and Taoyuan in northern Taiwan. For some, it was their first time seeing snow in person, and many flocked to the mountains to view the spectacle in all its glory.”

The problem, the RT writes, is that most homes in Taiwan don’t have central heating because it normally has a subtropical climate. The NZZ reported that the 4°C reading measured on Sunday had been “the lowest in 44 years“.

Lowest ever temperatures in China

Also the Daily Star here adds:

In South Korea, more than 500 domestic and international flights have been cancelled in Jeju as the island, known for balmy weather and beaches, saw -6C weather. The airport was due to reopen last night.”

The NZZ also writes that in China 24 weather stations recorded the lowest ever temperatures.

Also the following chart shows that southeast Asia is forecast to remain brutally cold over the next 7 days. Source here.

2016_Jan_Asia_1

 

Germany Sees No Statistically Significant Warming This Century, Analysis Shows

Germany temperatures 2000-2015: 7 months warmer, 5 months colder

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Josef Kowatsch
(Translated by P. Gosselin)

We keep hearing from the media that also in Germany climate change is galloping away. Climate skeptics, however, point out single months where the official temperature data show cooling taking place. Climate alarmists claim that the skeptics carefully cherrypick the time period. A predictable and fruitless course of discussion is the result.

After our latest analysis of Germany and global temperature for 2015, we received an e-mail from a climate activist and we would like to lift the discussion to a whole new level. The basis for the accusations and counter-accusations disappears when transparent data get provided. Actually preparing trends for various periods and months and presenting them to the public in an unbiased manner ought to be the job of the German National Weather Service (DWD). Unfortunately this does not get done – whatever the reason for that may be. The DWD data for the monthly mean temperatures in Germany are however freely available at Wikipedia, and so anyone can plot the charts. This is precisely what we have done.

Our partner Josef Kowatsch did the job. Over the coming weeks we will assess and present a series of time periods. To begin, we plot the data for each month over the past 16 years, 2000-2015. The diagrams are depicted below. Shown are the mean temperatures in Germany for each month and the corresponding linear trend for the examined period.

The results shows 7 months with a warming trend:
January, March, April, July, September, November, December

5 months have a cooling trend:
February, May, June, August, October

The relationship between warming and cooling is very much balanced. The warming trend for January, March, and September is minimal. This also gets reflected by the overall annual mean temperature trend, which shows a minimal warming trend. However no significant rise is detectable.

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for January:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for February:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for March:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for April:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for May:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for June:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for July:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for August:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for September:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for October:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for November:

 

Germany mean monthly temperature from 2000-2015 for December:
(1=2000, 16=2015)

 

Germany mean temperature from 2000-2015, ANNUAL:

 

Rapidly Evolving Protest: German Wind Energy Opponents Form Political Party In Response To A Deaf System

Not a single one of Germany’s established political parties officially opposes the construction of wind parks despite all the proof of their inefficiency, hazard to health and wildlife, ugliness, and lack of economy.

As a consequence, a growing number of citizens are becoming fed up with a political system that has become deaf to the concerns of citizens. Some 10 years ago what once began as a huge welcome of “green and clean” wind energy, has since turned into fierce protest – and is now developing into organized political opposition.

Hat-tip Gerti

North Germany’s online daily nordkurier.de here reports how in the state of Mecklenburg Western Pomerania citizen initiative groups against ugly wind parks are taking their protest activity to a whole new level: the formation of a political party to be on the ballot in September’s state elections. In summary environmentalist citizens have had it with the green-preaching parties who refuse to listen and have allowed themselves to be corrupted by Big Wind.

The name of the citizens’ initiative, which comprises some 50 smaller initiatives statewide, is called “Freier Horizont” (Free Horizon) and it plans to be on the ballot under the same name in this fall’s election.

Deaf political system

The reason the Freier Horizont is forming a political party? The nordkurier.de quotes initiative’s chairman Norbert Schumacher:

Currently there is no democratic party which rejects the uncontrolled expansion of wind power that people can elect.”

The hardest hit of course will be the region’s Green Party as disenchanted environmentalist realize that the Greens have long sold out to profiteering wind energy opportunists. The movement led by the Freier Horizont is taking on formidable dimensions. The nordkurier.de writes:

Schumacher sees voter potential foremost in the countryside. At many places citizens have had the experience that there voices against wind turbines carry no weight with the deciding committees. Last year the protest group gathered more than 22,000 signatures in a short time in support of a citizens’ initiative calling for greater distances between turbines and homes and coastlines. The state parliament rejected the initiative.”

Initiative leaders tell the nordkurier.de that it was never their intention to form a party. However, elected officials simply just don’t listen anymore.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming May Bring Another Cold Spell To Western And Central Europe In Early February, Models Suggest

Despite a week of bitter cold temperatures, central and western Europe has had a relatively mild winter this year.

Other parts of the northern hemisphere, however, have not been as lucky. For example Southeastern Europe, Central and Eastern Asia have seen massive waves of bitter cold and heavy snow. Climate Depot here tallies up the damage.

Now there are emerging indications that central and western Europe may need to brace for more bitter cold and treacherous winter conditions starting in early February.

German weather and climate analysis site wobleibtdieerderwaermung here writes that leading models are looking at a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the Arctic over the coming days, which in turn will very likely lead to another powerful cold wave this winter for Western and Central Europe.

The German site writes that currently calculations for the stratosphere at approx. 30 km altitude appear as follows:

ECMWF-Prognose für Druck (Geopotential) und Temperatur der oberen Stratatosphäre in 10 hPa (rund 30 km Höhe) vom 23.1. für den 1.2.2016. Über Nordkanada hat sich warme Luft mit hohem Druck entwickelt und een kalten Polarwirbel in Richtung Eurasien mit Kern über Nordeuropa abgedrängt. Die Temperaturdiffrenz zwichen dem 90. und dem 60. Breitengrad ist von derzeit - 27°C auf +18°C stark angestiegen. Quelle:

ECMWF projection for pressure (geopotential) and temperature of the upper stratosphere from 23 January – 1 February 2016. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat.html.

The wobleibtdieerderwaermung site writes (my emphasis):

An SSW will cause the polar circulation to become disrupted and possibly even split. This process in the stratosphere also causes the circulation in the troposphere over the entire northern hemisphere to be changed: The westerly drift over the north Atlantic gets interrupted by a blocking high pressure region and allows polar air to flow in over central and western Europe from the north and east.”

There is a large body of literature out there showing strong links between low solar activity, stratospheric warming and cold European winters.

The wobleibtdieerderwaermung site writes that both models of the ECMWF and NOAA/GFS agree that most likely there will be strong westward drift over the North Atlantic to Central Europe in late January 2016.

ECMWF-Prognose vom 19. Januar für den arktischen Polarwirbel in 150 hPa (13000m). Der Polarwirbel ist stark gestört und hat zwei Teilwirbel gebildet (Dipol). Der Kern des größeren südlichen Teilwiebels liegt  vor Nordnowegen. Über West- und Mitteleuropa herrscht eine kräftige Westströmung, was stürmisches und wechselhaftes Wetter erwarten lässt. Quelle:

ECMWF prognosis for the Arctic polar circulation 150 hPa from 23 January to 31 January 2016. The polar circulation is strongly disrupted and is dipolar. The core of the larger southern circulation lies over northern Norway and shows a strong westerly flow that leads us to expect unsettled weather. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat.html.

GFS-Prognose vom 24. Januar für den arktischen Polarwirbel in 150 hPa (13.000 m) zum 02./03..2.2016. Der Polarwirbel ist stark gestört und hat zwei Teilwirbel gebildet (Dipol). Der Kern des größeren südlichen Teilwirbels liegt vor Nordnorwegen. Über West- und Mitteleuropa weisen die dicht beieinander liegenden Höhenlinien (Isohypsen) auf eine kräftige Westströmung hin, was stürmisches und wechselhaftes Wetter erwarten lässt.

GFS prognosis for the Arctic polar circulation 100 hPa (16,000 0m) from 24 January to 3 February 2016.  The polar circulation is strongly disrupted and is dipolar. The core of the larger, right circulation lies off northern Norway and shows a strong westerly flow that leads us to expect unsettled and stormy weather. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/emcz.

The pattern, the German site writes, will deliver lots of snow at the higher elevations in Germany, especially in the Alps. Moreover a strong westerly drift is a good sign for a split of the jet stream. The site wobleibtdieerderwaermung writes that should the model prognoses come true, then the chances are good for the third cold snap of the 2015/16 winter in western and central Europe.

Naturally there’s a lot of speculation and uncertainty involved in forecasts beyond a week, sometime even those beyond just a few days. If one thing is certain, it is that Europe’s weather never fails to deliver surprises.