The Final Countdown Begins: Planet Has Less Than 11 Months To Go Before Al Gore’s Predicted Fiery Death!

Conservative radio talkshow host Rush Limbaugh’s countdown clock now shows less than 11 months to go before our blue oceanic planet starts sizzling for good.

Countdown

Cropped from Rush Limbaugh site.

About a decade ago Al Gore was earnestly predicting the planet had only another 10 years if we failed to dramatically reduce our CO2 emissions. Well, we haven’t cut them at all. In fact CO2 emissions have grown very strongly since then.

Yet, so far the global mean temperature is not any warmer than it was 10 years ago, just before Gore made the bold prediction – see chart that follows. Same was true a year ago.

Hadrcut

Current 10-year trend even shows slight cooling tendency. Source: Woodfortrees.org.

Countdown for what’s left of Gore’s reputation

Woodfortrees chart shows that global temperatures have not risen at all since Gore issued his warning. Ironically the countdown is actually turning out to be one for Mr. Gore’s reputation. In fact none of the predictions the Nobel Peace prize winner made in his Oscar-winning movie are coming true. There’s been no warming, and the poles even have more sea ice today – about 1 million sq. km more!

At his site Limbaugh quoted Larry David, husband of AIT producer Laurie David:

You know, Al is a funny guy, but he’s also a very serious guy who believes humans may have only 10 years left to save the planet from turning into a total frying pan.”

CO2 climate science, like all sciences, is also proving to be flat out wrong. The difference here is that there is so much at stake that no one wants to admit it.

 

If This Cold Is Warming, Then ISIS Is Peace … USA’s Stunning Shock-Freeze Contradicts NOAA Warmth Claims

Not only last winter was a brutal one for the USA, which saw the Great Lakes freeze over, this year is also turning out to be an epic one as record cold temperatures continue their unrelenting grip across the nation and massive snowfalls bury large regions across the east.

The UPI’s Fred Lambert recently wrote the bitter cold extends all the way to Siberia and had killed dozens across the US. Lambert writes:

According to the Weather Channel, the cold air mass now seizing the country stretches as far west as Russia, moving down through Canada and into the United States in what some meteorologists call the “Siberian Express.”

New all time records

The UK’s Mail online here reports that New York City’s 1°F reading set yesterday broke it’s 65-year old all-time cold record temperature. In Minnesota the mercury plummeted to -41°F. The Mail continues:

The temperature in Boston is below freezing, as the city is set to break the record of 16 days below 32F set in 1961.

In Florida, strawberry and orange crops have frozen over because of the harsh winter weather.”

The online English daily presents a spectacular series of winter photos. Even Niagara Falls has frozen over!

Unexpected freeze

As of Wednesday, over 85% of the Great Lakes was frozen over with experts predicting 100% ice cover in perhaps just a matter of a few more days. The USA Today here quotes George Leshkevich of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory:

Nobody expected 2014 to be as bad as it was, almost record breaking for ice cover and this year it’s the same thing with these very cold temperatures.”

“Historical ice cover record”

This morning mlive.com here shows images of Lake Huron, which it writes: “Lake Huron is almost entirely covered in ice. It is only 2.7 percent away from its historical ice-cover record.”

All this in the “6th warmest winter”?

Strangely, despite all the record freezing, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) claims that it has been the sixth-warmest winter on record. NCDC officials may want to go back and check their thermometers, as these claims are looking a lot like “padded room” quality.

If this cold and ice are warming, then ISIS is peace.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains the breathtaking, acrobatic tricks the NOAA used to produce the reality-disconnected result (see 1:30 mark).

Next cold blast to arrive next week

Dr. Ryan Maue at Twitter tells us that the cold wave is not yet done:

Maue Twitter

Note Maue warns of more records to possibly come. Obviously the US weather never got the message that it is supposed to be the 6th warmest on record.

 

Vermont Madness: How “Environmentalists” Go About “Saving” The Global Climate

Take a bunch of mad scientists, put them in the same room as idiot policymakers who are gullible enough to believe them, and the results you get are more often then not totally disastrous. History has shown this time and again. Some examples are eugenics, the lipid hypothesis and DDT.

Now such is the case in my home state of Vermont, just a stone throw away from my childhood hometown.

Reader “The Indomitable Snowman, Ph.D.” sent me a couple of aerial shots of what Lowell Mountain looks like today after wind energy proponents got their way and installed 21 wind turbines on it. Each are some 450 feet tall:

Lowell Mountain 1

Photo: “The Indomitable Snowman, Ph.D.”

You’ll find many more far gorier photos in the Internet simply by Googling “Lowell Mountain Wind Project”.

Turned off when power is really needed

So how well is the Lowell Mountain wind project rescuing the climate? Not very well, it turns out.

Vermont Digger site here, for example, reports how in 2013 during a heat wave grid operator ISO New England asked Green Mountain Power (GMP) to take much of the windpark offline, citing “insufficient infrastructure” to transmit power from Lowell.

VtDigger writes:

Instead of using wind power, GMP was required to use more carbon-heavy and expensive fuels because ISO officials say the infrastructure used to transmit power from Lowell is insufficient.”

ISO New England then called on GMP “to fire up its four jet turbines and six diesel engines located elsewhere around the state to match the high demand.” So here we see that it’s not even enough for the wind to blow. You also have to hope that the wind park is also located in the right spot!

Of course Vermont No. 1 eco-knucklehead Governor Peter Shumlin was angered that the wind park’s power had been curtailed and demanded that the power be used. After all people like Shumlin fret that the green power that did not get fed in probably led to 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000011°C more theoretical global warming, give or take a few zeros, and so may have stressed a little bit a couple of microbes somewhere in the Arctic.

Lowell Mountain wind power was not the only power that got curtailed, by also another wind park in Vermont and one in Maine got cutailed, VtDigger reports. The reason: “transmission limitations”.

This is precisely the sort problems we are seeing with Germany’s North Sea wind parks, which are set up but have no sufficient infrastructure to transmit the power where it is needed. Green masterminds at work.

The Lowell Mountain wind park has accomplished one thing: It has destroyed an entire mountain area and the delicate biodiversity and ecosystem surrounding it.  That’s a hell of price to pay for the theoretical 0.000000000000001°C or so less global warming the park will lead to.

I’m curious to know just how much power the 64.5 megawatt project actually produced over its first year of operation and percentage of rated capacity that was. I suspect it was probably even lower than the urine-poor results we’ve seen in Baden Wurttemberg.

“The Indomitable Snowman, Ph.D.” comments in his e-mail:

The other silly part is that this kind of stuff is being brought to us by the same people who, for years, fought tooth-and-nail against the construction of little tiny mobile communications towers on the same ridgelines – on the grounds that they amounted to ‘visual pollution’.  With these, they’re even trying to get artists to create agitprop to convince people that these things are beautiful; the infamous totalitarian regimes of the 20th century were always conscripting ‘artists’ into ‘the cause’ in the same way.”

Why do morons like Shumlin and their destruction remind me of this? It took nature hundreds of thousands of years to form Vermont’s mountains.

 

Catastrophe-Hopping Spiegel: German News Magazine Rolls Out Latest Climate Horror Vision: A Burning North Pole

This week’s hard copy of Spiegel features the front cover story dubbed “Der verheizte Planet” – The heated planet – (see right image below). Thus, Spiegel is returning and keeping to its long tradition of promoting end-of world scenarios.

The following image sequence shows how the burning planet is just the latest and newest climate catastrophe designed to get an apocalypse-weary public to worry (and to buy its magazines). So far the reaction, however, has been a big yawn. The world is, after all, full with other real concerns.

Spiegel disaster hopping

Spiegel depictions over the last decades. 1986 and 2015 were even front cover images. 1974: cooling. 1986: sea level rise. Now, 2015: it’s a burning planet.

1974 – 10,000 to 1 chance at best of planet returning to warming

In 1974 Spiegel warned of global cooling, writing that climate change was leading to growing deserts and global cooling. The article even claimed that the North Atlantic had cooled 0.5°C – this after “The global annual mean temperature increased by 0.7°C from 1890 to 1945.” During that warming period, Spiegel writes: “Near the poles the temperature was even several degrees warmer.”

In the lengthy article Spiegel even quoted meteorological researcher James McQuigg who said the chances of the climate returning to warmer conditions such as those in the 1930s were “at best 10,000 to 1″.

Also in Spiegel’s 11 February, 1974 edition an article titled The Desert is growing shows a temperature chart that tells us the global temperature fell from 16.0°C to 15.7°C from 1945 to 1970. Someone needs to tell this to NASA GISS. Today aren’t they saying the global temperature is now 14.9°? Weird.

1986: “Die Klimakatastrophe”

Then, just 12 years later in 1986, scientists realized the ocean cycles had flipped to their warm phase and so suddenly global warming was back in the pipeline. Immediately Spiegel ran with its legendary August 11, 1986 edition bearing the front page headline “Die Klimakatastrophe“, which depicted the Cologne Cathedral half submerged in sea water.

Forest die-off scare, acid rain

Spiegel not only spread fear about climate catastrophes, but it was also instrumental in spreading the acid-rain/forest die-off scare in the 1980s. In 1981 the magazine featured a 3-part series depicting the German forests as being doomed and certain to be forever lost.

Back to some rationality

Over the past years, it seemed Spiegel had been backing off from global climate catastrophe meme. The flagship news magazine often featured balanced reports, foremost by science journalist Axel Bojanowski, who often questioned the claims of a climate catastrophe and challenged the shrillness of the IPCC’s warnings. NoTricksZone often wrote about these articles. It seemed the magazine was back to rational and critical journalism on the topic of climate change, and this fostered hopes of a balanced debate someday taking place in Germany.

2015 Spiegel returns to the apocalypse

But this was wishful thinking, it turns out, as this week on Monday Spiegel rolled out its latest apocalyptic issue with the front page bearing the headline: “The Heated Planet” and an image of a planet on fire. The article is a repackaging all the doom and gloom scenarios that rest of the German mainstream media had been crowing about for a good two decades now. Balance has disappeared, regrettably.

Plummeting circulation

So why suddenly the change in tone? One can only speculate. Clear is that Spiegel circulation has been taking a massive beating over the recent years. For example in the 3rd quarter of 2014 alone Spiegel newsstand sales fell a whopping 12 percent, so reports the online horizont.net.

The European Institute for Climate and Energy presents the chart for subscriptions to Spiegel:

Source: EIKE

Veteran science journalist Ulli Kulke of flagship Die Welt writes at his blog:

Does the new editorial board at Spiegel want to scale the magazine back to being a warrior on behalf of the environment? Will the critical journalism over the past years that questioned the increasingly baseless end-of-world-mood now come to an end? The new frontpage cover The Heated Planet appears to be going back to the good old days of the apocalypse…”

PS: So far none of the catastrophes have come to pass.

German Black Forest Wind Turbines Yielded Only 11.8% Of Rated Capacity In 2014! … “Frightening Results”

The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) has a report here analyzing the 2014 wind energy output of the German state of Baden Wurttemberg (BW), home of the world famous Black Forest, which in turn is home to the cuckoo clock.

Well, it turns out that not only the clocks in BW have gone cuckoo, but so has its energy policy!

“Frightening” results

A few years ago the traditionally conservative South German state elected a green Prime Minister, who vowed to shut down the state’s nuclear power plants and to install wind energy in its place. BW is not exactly the best place for wind power. EIKE writes that the Gegenwind- Straubenhardt wind power protest group compared actual wind energy production to the expected figures. The results, EIKE writes, are “frightening”.

By the end of 2014 BW had 397 wind turbines with 678 MW of total installed rated capacity. The yield and result, EIKE writes:

All wind turbines in Baden Wurttemberg produced a total of 699,564 MWh of power. That corresponds to an annual mean wind power feed-in of 79.9 MW or 11.8% of the available annual mean of 676.9 MW.”

Only 11.8%!

The following chart shows the output of BW’s wind turbines for each month:

Figure 1: Wind power feed-in (red) and installed rated capacity (green) over the year 2014. Source: TransnetBW

Readers can see the multiple times wind power went almost completely AWOL, like early December, early August, or the end of March through the early part of April. Pathetic.

The breakdown of the operating hours of wind power output shows just how pathetic wind energy really is.

* 339.75 hours (= 14.2 days = 3.9%) saw zero wind (0 MW), no power was generated at all!

* 1403.50 hours (= 58.5 days = 16.0%) power output was under 7 MW (1% of rated capacity).

* 3614 hours (= 5 months = 41.3%) power output was under 5% of rated capacity

* 5308 hours (= 7.4 months = 60.6%) wind power was below 10% of rated capacity.

Here we see that conventional power plants always need to be on standby, and most of the time they have to be filling in for the often AWOL wind turbines.

The industrialization of Germany’s Black Forest region with ugly skyscraper-dimensioned wind turbines is a hell of a price to pay for so little in return.

 

German Critic On Energiewende: “Megalomania Rather Than Mega-Project”. Now “At A Dead End”

What follows is a comment written at FaceBook by alternative energy critic Wolfgang Neumann on the plight of Germany’s “Energiewende” (national transition to renewable energy) and a documentary on German television: Energiewende at a dead end. What follows is the translation (with slight editing):
========================================

Energiewende – at a dead end
By Wolfgang Neumann

The world has never witnessed anything like it before: An industrial country giving up nuclear power and switches over to wind, water and solar. It almost sounds like a miracle – but it’s not going to be one because physics will prevent it from being so. Also power does not flow from everywhere where power is written on it! Indeed the ‘Energiewende’ proponents have yet to realize that the ‘gifts from the sky’ sun and wind are actually only very temperamentally available – they fluctuating as the engineers say. It appears the ‘Energiewende’ is running into a dead end!

The facts

The necessary offshore wind parks are located far away from the consumers. Those who speak of a “decentralized” power supply but yet install approximately 35,000 MW of offshore wind turbines in an area of the North Sea without first thinking about how to bring the power onshore to the consumers have surely misunderstood the meaning of ‘DECENTRAL’!

The potential for hydropower in Germany is as good as exhausted and so there not much is happening. Photovoltaic systems have little significance in the wintertime – too unproductive! Grid expansion as a whole is just not making any progress because individual states and the federal government are constantly bickering. And although for years they have been working feverishly on storage technology for alternative energies (AE), there has been no real technical or economic progress up to now. So far it’s all been mostly wishful thinking and little reality!

True that over the last decades the power supply companies took advantage of their monopoly position, played with marked cards and have not allowed anyone to get a look at their hand. And now it turns out that sun and wind are not for free after all and power conversion systems are costly! Now we see that wind turbine and solar system operators have learned quickly from the large power companies: They too are not allowing anyone to get a look at their cards and are circling the wagons: Don’t answer thorny questions, e.g. about operating and maintenance costs of wind turbines and solar systems! Also don’t answer questions about the long-term material strength of wind turbines or the real number of full capacity hours of wind and solar systems, i.e.. their real efficiency. The main question still remains today: How efficient are alternative energy producing systems?

The Energiewende has been an embarrassing, amateur chaos over much more than just the last two years. From a specialist point of view it has lived fully from bad estimates, false assumptions, wishful thinking, outright illusions and empty words coming from self-proclaimed ‘energy experts’ with ideological visions of the ‘energy supply of the future’. The only purpose it serves is to provide wind solar plant operators with subsidies thanks to a wasteful generosity!

I believe that with the Energiewende, too many ‘experts’ and not enough real professionals had a say. In earlier times power plants were built in industrial zones or cities with the aim of reducing the length of power lines. Today the plan is to install offshore power plants with a total nameplate capacity of approximately 40 GW way out in the North Sea. However the power is not even needed at the coast and so expensive cross country power transmission lines will need to be built. The route which these power lines should take, however, is being hotly disputed among the German states. And the greater the installed capacity of wind and sun becomes, the more precarious and prone the grid will be to windless and sunless days and so the greater becomes the need for conventional power plants to always be ready on standby. That means even higher costs for the consumers!

In my view the Energiewende is an attempt at a state-controlled, centrally planned energy economy. German ARD public television even had a documentary on this: Energiewende – Megalomania rather than Mega-Project.

Wolfgang Neumann is a critic of Germany’s Energiewende and one can find many comments and posts on the subject at his Facebook site.

 

The Sydney Morning Herald’s Peter Hannam Grossly Deceives His Readers Using Massively Doctored Photo

What follows is photo-shopping taken to an extreme.

It’s little wonder few people believe anything the mainstream dailies write when it comes to climate change. Time and again they’ve been exposed to be unloading barges of BS onto their readers.

Reader Jim sent an e-mail bringing attention to probably the most amateur photo-shopping work on behalf of global warming propaganda I’ve seen in a long time, all used by eco-journalist Peter Hannam of the Sydney Morning Herald in a piece about the coal-fired Liddel Power Station in Hunter Valley, NSW.

Not only is the photo totally manipulated with the aim of deceiving readers, but Hannam’s facts are just as misleading as the photo-shopped power plant image itself:

SMH propaganda2

Glaring photo-shopped image by Jonathan Carroll gets used by the SMH to produce impression that the Liddel coal power plant is causing disease at an epidemic proportion. Original photo: Jonathan Carroll.

Note how the steam emitted by the power plant’s cooling towers is a sinister black. Since when is water vapor black? Hannam obviously is unable to distinguish between the smoke stack and the cooling towers. The scant emissions from the single smokestack in the center of the image shows just how clean coal power plants have become.

The photo also tells the many readers residing in the northern hemisphere that skies down under have very weird colors.

Hannam reports on an activist group of doctors who using a dubious formula claim they have succeeded in putting a figure on the health damage the power plant causes: $600 million annually.

Hannam writes:

The Coal and Health in the Hunter report by the Climate and Health Alliance estimates that burning coal for electricity in the valley alone produces health damage in the order of $600 million annually from the resulting air pollution, including the release of small particles.”

However, as reader Jim points out, a quick search of health statistics from Hunter New England Health (which covers the Hunter Valley) shows that Hannam’s claims are dubious at best. What follows is a chart showing the causes of death for all respiratory ailments:

NSW Health chart

Source: Health Statistics New South Wales

The above chart shows that deaths due to respiratory ailments are primarily caused by lung cancer (smoking) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) which is in part related to pollution. Deaths from COPD, which to some extent are linked to the emissions from coal power plants, have been declining over the last 15 years.

Deaths due to asthma, a disease that could certainly be exacerbated by pollution, shows no trend.

Why would any reader believe anything Hannam writes? Using doctored images and dubious statistical methods, he is obviously attempting to fabricate a health crisis that does not exist.

 

Sick Side-Show: Justin Gillis And New York Times’ Attempt To Blow Up Distinguished Professor’s Reputation.

UPDATE: I got an angry e-mail from a reader who acted like he was offended by my likening the intolerance of warmists to that of the ISIS. The writer demanded that I get back to “a little bit of civility here”. Gee, I thought burning enemies was something Christians did hundreds of years ago, and so we ought not get so upset about it, at least that’s what President Obama told us. At any rate, I’ve decided to replace the IS image below with another that meets the warmists’ standards of civility. Happy now?
===================================

Unfortunately we live on the same planet as a couple of apocalyptic cults which find the existence of non-believers an affront to their particular belief system. One cult fantasises about executing non-believers, the other does it in imaginative ways. Both cults need to believe in hidden things. Both are best avoided.”

- David Archibald

10 10 no pressure 2

IS propaganda image. What zealot warmists really fantasize of doing to dissenters. Source: cropped from here.

Distinguished scientist Willie Soon has become the target of a nasty smear job led by Justin Gillis of the hopelessly biased New York Times. It is not so much that the Smithsonian professor dared to question climate science orthodoxy (which is what science is all about to start with), but rather that his questions have yet to be answered. Thus Soon is viewed as a threat and so he has been condemned a heretic by the global warming cultists. And so ensues the orchestrated attempt by the New York Times, and the usual suspect web of alarmist scientists and activists, to cage-burn Soon’s reputation as a scientist.

Sideshow rather than scientific debate

Obviously the strain brought on by the embarrassment of the 18-year global warming pause and the unexpected record winter weather has been taking its toll on the global warming apostles and the desperate activist media outlets. The supposedly settled science apparently has more than its share of prickly thorns in its side.

Instead of arguing the science point by point, the New York Times led by Gillis prefer to create a diversionary side show: Soon’s reputation gets put in a cage that is to be set afire as the science goes ignored.

The activist past of Justin Gillis

Gillis’s brand of one-sided, highly activist and aid-and-abet journalism on behalf of end-of-world theorist scientists is hardly new. His true identity was exposed, for example, in his attempt to go after distinguished MIT professor Richard Lindzen. Christopher Horner writes of collusion at the Washington Examiner:

Gillis wrote a piece in May laboring to undermine one of the most highly credentialed and respected climate ‘skeptics,’ the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Dr. Richard Lindzen. This front-page article prompted my request for information reflecting how the A&M professor and activist whom Gillis quoted was using his taxpayer-funded position.

The specific correspondence began when Gillis wrote that interviewing Lindzen for a piece on his area of expertise was ‘unavoidable,’ and ‘[s]o I need a really good bibliography of all the published science’ countering Lindzen’s position on cloud feedback — ‘that is, anything that stands as evidence against Lindzen’s claim that the feedback has to be strongly negative.’

Remember, this was a reporter for the New York Times writing this. In the released emails, Gillis comes off as an activist posing as a journalist, sneering at Lindzen. Of another prominent skeptic, Gillis wrote, ‘I sense you’ve got him in a trap here … can’t wait to see it sprung.’ “

The Galileo treatment

The need to go after heretics who stand out is as old as humanity itself and is a seemingly incurable mental illness that has ailed human civilization from the start. Today, as David Archibald points out, it is starkly manifested by radical Islam. One illustrative scientific case from the past is the Trial of Galileo from some 400 years ago:

Galileo’s renunciation of Copernicanism ended with the words, “I affirm, therefore, on my conscience, that I do not now hold the condemned opinion and have not held it since the decision of authorities….I am here in your hands–do with me what you please.”

The parallels are stunning to say the least. Unfortunately Galileo was pretty much alone in his plight and did not have a blog.

Long list of warmists funded by Big Oil, industry

Of course Gillis writes as if questionable funding is only a problem one finds on the skeptic side, who in fact are massively underfunded compared to the global warming alarmists. Many skeptic blogs operate on volunteer basis. Recently NTZ exposed the massive funding the radical warmist elements get from Big Industry: Long List Of Warmist Organizations And Scientists Haul In Huge Money From Big Oil And Heavy Industry.

Earth to Gillis…Earth to Gillis..do you read?

Not only is the New York Times article just a sorrowful side-show, but it is one involving immature and juvenile elements. Prior to article appearing, taunting e-mails were anonymously sent to Professor Soon. It is not known who was behind the e-mails, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out it came from a circle close to the New York Times piece.

Pitiful attacks mean skeptics are winning

So what does Gillis’s sorrowful piece of journalism tell us? Most climate skeptics skeptics have become very familiarized with the words of Gandhi concerning being first ignored, then laughed at, and then attacked before finally emerging victorious. The attack on Willie Soon is just the latest sign of the warmists’ desperation. They know their science is just sinking refuse.

Finally read: Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink.

Also see many links to reports at Climate Depot.

http://www.breitbart.com/witch-hunt/

 

75% Of International Experts View Germany’s Energiewende As A Threat To European Power Supply Stability!

For some renewable energy proponents, it simply doesn’t matter what hard facts showing wind and solar make little sense get put on the table, they’ll religiously insist that it’s the best thing ever in energy technology.

Germany for example has invested massively in wind and solar energy in an attempt to replace its coal and nuclear plants, which environmentally fell out of the public’s favor during the end of the last century and early 21st century. Unfortunately Germany’s mad rush into wind and sun dubbed the Energiewende) (transition to renewable energy) is not paying off.

Today Germany’s online FOCUS reports on a new survey of international experts concerning the success of the German Energiewende: “World Energy Council warns: German Energiewende threatens Europe’s power supply reliability / Experts: no “export hit“. FOCUS writes:

International experts are harboring huge doubt over the success of the German Energiewende. This is the result of a survey by the World Energy Council… […]. Three quarters of those surveyed see a threat from the Energiewende to the supply stability of power in Europe. Two thirds believe the Energiewende will weaken the German economy over the short and mid-term. Only three percent believe Germany will accomplish its transition to renewable energies within the prescribed timeframe.”

FOCUS explains how the World Energy Council is an international association of the energy industry and that it surveys its members on a regular basis. “The current survey questioned experts in 35 countries, 20 of which were from Europe.”

The World Energy Council writes at its site here that about 60% of the experts who were surveyed say that industrial customers in their countries reject higher electricity prices, also even if they contribute to protecting the climate. About 50% of the experts believe that private households would accept slightly higher energy prices.

On whether the German model is feasible in other countries, 82% do not see the economic and technical conditions being at hand for a German-type Energiewende in their own countries.

FOCUS cites the President of the German Committee of the World Energy Council, Uwe Franke:

Foremost the fear of a considerable worsening in supply stability is worrisome. ‘We have to take the fears of our neighbors very seriously,’ Franke demands. ‘The supply reliability for electricity depends foremeost on the quality of the technical infrastructure.’“

Right now as it is, the quality of the renewable energy supply infrastructure is gravely lacking, as there exists no national transmission line to take power from Germany’s offshore wind parks to industry located inland in southern Germany. Moreover no economical technology exists for storing surplus energy nor is any in sight.

 

German Analysis: “97 Percent Consensus” Does Not Exist … Demands To End Debate Are “Way Off Sides”

I’ve always found the discussion over consensus in science extremely annoying. History is clear: When it comes to science progress, consensus has ended up being the loser every single time.
=======================

The ninety seven percent problem: which consensus?

By Uli Weber
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

We constantly hear and read about the claim that 97 percent of all scientific papers (or sometimes all scientists) confirm man-made global warming. The Consensus Project made such a statement in a scientific paper which precisely wants to prove the point. The paper titled: “Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature” by Cook et al. in the Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) 024024 (7pp) points to the 97% consensus for anthropogenic global warming (AGW) as follows:

  • 12,465 scientific papers examined for statements on AGW
  • 4014 papers contain own statement on AGW
  • Of these 4014 papers with statements on AGW, 97% confirm the AGW theory.

The supposed 97 percent AGW consensus is calculated using only a part that is 4014 of the originally surveyed 12,465 scientific papers, and not on the totality of the examined papers. The calculation approach of course is totally absurd and virtually meaningless. If one could even present such a statement on AGW in such a way to begin with, then the so called “consensus“ using the correct method of calculation would yield a result of only 32% of the surveyed scientific papers. Yet at the same time the approximately one third of the 12,465 surveyed papers are supposed to represent the entire spectrum of proponents of the AGW theory as well as the so-called luke-warmers who believe that a human contribution to climate is possible, but reject the catastrophe scenarios for the future climate.

Thus for the forecast of global future climate catastrophe scenarios, what is really left is only a consensus of considerably under one third of the papers surveyed and not more. And when one looks more critically at the information, one indeed does find there is a stated restriction to the described partial amount of papers in the Consensus Project. Here it is written in fine print behind the huge “97%” (emphasis added),

of published climate papers with a position on human-caused global warming agree: GLOBAL WARMING IS HAPPENING – AND WE ARE THE CAUSE”,

However, in a thorough consideration of all the scientific climate publications surveyed by Cook et al., the result looks entirely different:

  • A two thirds majority of the examined scientific climate papers take no socio-political stand on AGW.
  • Judging from socio-political views, only about 1% of climate realists are said to be opposed to AGW.
  • The AGW protagonists on the other hand, with about one third of all the surveyed publications, are far less reserved when it comes to their statements on scientific publications.

Result:

The ominous and often cited 97% consensus for the acceptance of the AGW theory in climate science does not exist. Thus the scientifically hostile demand for “an end to the climate discussion” is morally and computationally way offsides. In the Cook et al. study it is clearly shown that the protagonists of the climate catastrophe bring their social-political positions in scientific papers. Finally, in the given study a comparison is made between diametrically opposed socio-political positions using a subjectively selected sampling amount as a yardstick for a supposed consensus in the entire climate sciences.

The one positive result the study yields is that it allows us to determine that in climate science there is still a “silent” two thirds majority who choose to refrain from the socio-political discussion in their scientific publications. In the end, however, in the public depiction of climate science, the socio-political opinion of a one third minority is being sold as scientific 97% majority consensus.

So with the backdrop of the proven “one-third truth“ for man-made climate change, it is indeed very peculiar that the so-called “climate deniers” are getting lumped together with deniers of every type by the climate catastrophe followers again and again. Moreover in an open scientific discussion on the fundamentals of the dreaded climate change, it is completely incomprehensible that a climate of hatred is being applied to an equal extent against both the “climate deniers” and “luke-warmers” (Kalte-Sonne article of 3 February 2015). And that is not only the case in Great Britain and in USA, but elsewhere as well. For example in a 2013 brochure issued by the German Ministry of Environment (to which a link no longer exists), climate change critics were universally declared as being clueless. German daily WELT even carried an article titled: “A government authority declares the climate debate over“.

“The New England Glacier”! Dr. Ryan Maue: “Arctic Cold On Lockdown…Brutal”. Global Warming Gets Obliterated! Great Lakes “100% Frozen Over Next Week”!

If you google “warmer winters”, you’ll find plenty of articles that contain statements like the following:

But scientists say the milder winters also are consistent with global warming caused by the massive buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to human activities such as burning oil and coal. The carbon dioxide acts like a greenhouse roof, trapping heat on the Earth’s surface.”

And there are also plenty of articles from earlier on claiming that cold winters with lots of snow would become rare in the future, all in line of course with scientists expected from global warming.

But suddenly the exact opposite is happening, and it is deeply embarrassing the climate experts. The USA is now being gripped by widespread and especially severe cold and snow.

Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) reports today:

After the heavy snowfalls of the last couple days, the American east coast is expecting a cold front with record minus temperatures.”

Germany’s national DW public radio recently reported, “USA: The Winter Just Doesn’t Want To End” and on how people on the east coast “aren’t getting any breaks” from the bitter cold and snow.

DW describes how transportation is being severely hampered and federal workers in Washington D.C. are staying home because of the weather: The DW adds:

Also Boston continues to ail from the harsh winter. After the heavy snowstorms and temperatures down to minus 23° Celsius during last weekend, the National Weather Service forecast more snow ahead for Tuesday and Wednesday. Already the current February is already the snowiest in the history of the east coast city.”

Ryan Maue: “The New England Glacier”

So when can Americans along the east coast start dreaming about a pause in winter and the promises of cherry blossoms? According to Dr. Ryan Maue at Twitter, not for awhile. The expert meteorologist provides a temperature anomaly chart from the ECMWF for the end of February:

Maue Twitter

Chart source: ECMWF

From the charts Maue sees a possible additional 1 to 2 feet of snow, and he is already describing the massive snow over Boston as “the New England Glacier”. He tweets: “Arctic cold on lockdown … brutal“!

100% frozen over – next week!

By next week Maue foresees about a quarter billion people in North America “at/below freezing conditions” (including Canada).

Another indication of the winter’s severity is the ice cover over the Great Lakes. Maue tweets here:

Just obscene & no stopping it … Great Lakes are going to be 90-95% then 100% froze over … Next week.”

BP 2035 Outlook Foresees Only 8% Renewable Energy By 2035! No End In Sight For Fossil Fuel Growth!

One of the biggest miscalculations that the global warming alarmists have made is claiming that global CO2 emissions must reach their peak by 2020 and then begin falling rapidly. If they don’t, there will be no chance of reaching the 2°C maximum warming target. Planetary catastrophe will ensue, the alarmists claim.

British energy behemoth BP has just released its BP Energy Outlook 2035, and it states in no uncertain terms that there is no chance of CO2 emissions beginning their decline by 2035, let alone 2020!

Good news: global GDP to double!

The BP reports states, “By 2035, the world’s population is projected to reach 8.7 billion, which means an additional 1.6 billion people will need energy.” and the globe’s “GDP is expected to more than double“.

That’s good news for humanity. More people enjoying the one-time gift of life and doing so in greater comfort. But that’s going to require energy, of course.

India 3rd largest economy in 2035

The BP report projects that India will go from being a third world country to being the world’s third largest economy.

That has major implications for the world’s energy market. The BP writes (my emphasis):

Primary energy consumption increases by 37% between 2013 and 2035, with growth averaging 1.4% p.a.. Virtually all (96%) of the projected growth is in the non-OECD, with energy consumption growing at 2.2% p.a.. OECD energy consumption, by contrast, grows at just 0.1% p.a. over the whole period and is actually falling from 2030.”

That’s strong growth, and today’s renewable energy technology will have no chance of economically meeting that kind of demand. Wind and solar are just too unreliable, and their storage is still a long way from being feasible. This is glaringly obvious in the BP report.

No end in sight for fossil fuel growth

The BP report features the following chart showing the breakdown of primary fuel consumption by 2035.

BP_2035 Energy

Source: BP.

The above figure foresees massive expansion of the traditional carbon based fossil fuels, especially oil and gas, with modest growth in coal consumption. That means global CO2 emissions will continue growing strongly, which would mean bad news if the CO2 greenhouse theory were correct. But so far, despite the massive rise in global CO2 emissions since the year 2000, global temperatures have not risen at all, and global warming scientists are now under extreme pressure to revise downwards their once lofty warming projections.

Emissions well above path recommended by scientists!

The future development of CO2 emissions bodes extremely ill for global warming alarmists. The BP Report writes on page 85: “Global CO2 emissions from energy use grow by 25% (1% p.a.) over the Outlook. Emissions remain well above the path recommended by scientists, illustrated by the IEA’s “450 Scenario”. In 2035, CO2 emissions are 18 billion tonnes above the IEA’s 450 Scenario.”

CO2 theory rapidly approaching its Waterloo

CO2 emissions growth clearly is not going to be curbed anytime soon, and temperatures really will have to start climbing in earnest if the AGW theory is to survive. (Un)fortunately there are no signs that is going to happen in the next 10-20 years.

Only 8% renewable energy by 2035

Page 14 of the BP Report shows strong growth in renewable energy, but it will be only about 8% of global energy supply. That’s light year’s away from the UN’s 50% target! Obviously, no one except a few token countries are taking renewable energies seriously. Their impracticality is their major obstacle.

On page 17 the BP states that “coal remains the dominant fuel, accounting for more than a third of the inputs to power generation.”

Planet awash in energy

The report shows a planet that is awash in energy and also projects strong growth in “new energy forms” such as shale and oil sands (p. 20) which “are thought to be abundant”. On page 95 the report states (my emphasis):

North America’s oil and natural gas supply outlook has been revised higher yet again (14%) due to the continued evolving expectations for shale gas and tight oil.”

The BP report summarizes on page 97:

Our Outlook shows more growth in non-OECD energy demand than the IEA NP; it also shows more growth for fossil fuels, especially for coal. This probably reflects differing views on the outlook for rapidly industrializing economies, in particular on the speed with which they can move to a less energy-intensive growth path.”

Read: BP Energy Outlook 2035.

 

Fluctuating Atlantic … German Experts Say “Things Could Become Very Bitter For The IPCC Forecast Models”!

The latest post by Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt looks at solar cycle 24 in January, and the climate impacts of the North Atlantic. The two authors write that the IPCC models may be in for a bitter surprise.
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The sun in January 2015 and Atlantic prognoses

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

Solar report January 2015

Last month the sun reached a sunspot number of 67.0 and thus was once again below normal in activity: It reached 85% of what is normal for the particular cycle month.

Fig. 1: The mean activity of the sun since systematic observations have been conducted is shown in blue and the current cycle (24th cycle, red), along with the relatively similar Cycle No. 1 of 260 years ago.

The red curve shows that the sunspot maximum is now over. Up to now that was not so easy to identify because instead of the usual pronounced maximum (compared to the mean curve in Fig. 1), there have been two peaks with a pronounced dip between them.

Observation of the sun’s polar magnetic fields brings certainty rather than guesses. We reported on this in detail before the end of the year. In short the polar fields have a zero polarity during the solar sunspot maximum. The difference of north polar field and south polar field is zero, yet it can occur often when the fields do not reverse at the same time. During the current cycle the fluctuation about the zero line was quite intense:

Figure 2: The difference between the polar fields of the sun, source: leif.org.

The zero value was first approached in fall 2012, in early summer 2013, and again at the beginning of 2014. The maximum dragged on for some 15 months. But now the trend appears to be clearly away from zero and the maximum to be behind us for good. The month with the highest activity was month no. 63 of the cycle, February 2014, with a SSN= 102.8.

We are seeing an unusually weak cycle with a delayed start and delayed maximum. Another thing is noteworthy: The polar fields are building up only very slowly, especially the solar north pole is dipping as before close to zero. Could that be an indication of an even weaker cycle to follow? It is still too early to determine this, but we will know in a few years. What follows is a comparison of all the cycles:

Fig. 3: The summed deviations from the mean value (blue in Fig. 1) for all cycles for all months up to the current one. The right bar in Fig. 3 is growing deeper into negative territory. This indicates a strongly reduced solar activity since approx. 2006.

North Atlantic harboring a bitter surprise?

As some readers may recall, we reported earlier here on the North Atlantic and we suspected that a relatively significant reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could be in the pipeline. Since then there have been additional mesurements of this near surface warm current, which impacts the Atlantic part of the Northern Hemisphere and to some extent other large regions of the Northern hemisphere. Our earlier prognoses are now confirmed:

Fig. 4: The AMOC strength between 2004 and spring 2014. Source: climate-lab-book.ac.uk.

It is the decisive element that controls the AMO, and probably the approximately 65-year temperature oscillation. Earlier it had been positive, the transition from negative to a positive phase precisely coincides with the time frame that most climate models were parameterized: between 1975 and 2004.

Fig.5: The AMO since 1870, Source: climatedataguide.ucar.edu. The signal is determined by measuring surface temperatures of the entire North Atlantic and the deviation from the linear long-term trend. The AMO thus expresses an internal variability.

The additional added heat from the variable oscillation may have led to the models having calculated an excessive forcing from greenhouse gases, just as the AMO will also not be accounted for in the newest CMIP5 models when it comes to the global and northern hemisphere temperatures.

Getting back to the AMOC, if it weakens, it will lead to a falling heat content in the North Atlantic at depths from 0 to 700 meters and so less heat getting conveyed towards the North Pole. This is precisely what has been observed since 2007:


Fig. 6: The heat content of the upper 700 meters in the region of impact of the AMOC, Chart source: Climate Explorer.

It is highly likely that the focus of the AMOC-effect can be found in the sub-polar gyre, which is a relatively small area of the sea in the North Atlantic located off the southern tip of Greenland: 45°N…60°N; 50°W…20W°. Here we are seeing truly dramatic events:

Fig. 7:  The heat content of water between 300 meters depth and 125 m of the sub-polar circulation. The depth limit was chosen in order to exclude falsifications from the effects of atmospheric processes. (Image source: Argo Marine Atlas)

Beginning in the spring of 2014 (after the end of the available direct measurement in Fig. 4) we see the occurrence of a steep drop. Also the forecast of the British Met Office for the next years is now taking this development into account and foresees with some certainty for the next ten years global temperatures at the lower end of the models’ ranges. It is also stated very carefully that a temperature stall could occur over the next 10 years, which for the models would be a real large-scale catastrophe. Just as we wrote back in January, 2014:

The AMO] is not accounted for in the IPCC models and would limit the trend rise in global temperatures since the beginning of the impact of greenhouse gases to about 1°K/ century.  How much longer will we have to wait before the IPCC finally accepts the multidecadal oscillations, as it already has here and is shown in other works?”

The North Atlantic is indeed a special region and could contribute much to understanding our climate. Also a greater impact by the sun than what has been considered up to now would be possible. A new paper by authors in China and Scandinavia examined high resolution proxy summer temperature data from northern Iceland and came to the result that the fluctuations there over the last 3500 years correspond to solar activity, and do so significantly over long time frames (centuries and millennia).

Fig. 8: The coincidence between North Atlantic summer temperatures and solar activity in the gray range over the last 3500 years (top), with the correlation (middle) and significance (bottom – the lower the p -value, the greater the certainty) of the relationship . Source: Figure 5 of the above-mentioned paper.

When one looks very closely at Fig. 8, one sees a time delay in temperature with respect to solar activity characteristic numbers. And when one now looks at Figure 3 of post and notice the especially high activity until the end of the 1980s and the rather dramatic drop afterwards, what do you think the solar drive will do to the Atlantic temperatures?

Things could become very bitter for the IPCC forecast models! With much excitement we look forward to how the climate unfolds.

 

German Experts: New Paper By Gleisner Shows 2013 Cowtan And Way Arctic Data Hole Paper Was A Lemon

German experts Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt tell at their Die kalte Sonne site us why the 2013 Cowtan and Way paper has proven to be a flop.
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Failed spectacularly: Arctic data hole theory for the warming pause collapses
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

For quite some time climate scientists have been desperately seeking an explanation for the unexpected warming pause. On November 15, 2013 in the Süddeutsche Zeitung Christopher Schrader declared that the solution had been found: There was no pause; the data had only been missing from the Arctic.

Climate change without pause
According to the data, the earth had not warmed over the past years. However, this impression is likely related to missing data from the Arctic. And there the temperature appears to have risen much more strongly than the global average.[…] These [temperature] measurements have large holes: Approximately one sixth of the earth is not covered. Foremost in the Arctic there are not enough thermometers. But according to all signs it is warming considerably more quickly than the rest of the planet. An English and a Canadian scientist now show how this hole can be closed up with estimated values and how the supposed warming pause practically disappears. Kevin Cowtan of the University of York and Robert Way of the University of Ottawa refer to satellite data. […] Thus ultimately Cowtan and Way arrived at the result that the Arctic warmed eight times faster than the rest of the planet. Before that it had been thought that it was warming three times faster.”

Unfortunately Schrader did not mention that the two scientists were climate activists who were close to the IPCC-friendly Internet platform Skeptical Science. Yet, he still was unable to let slip out a couple of critical words about the two authors:

However the process is too complicated in order to find widespread recognition. Doubt will be stirred up among many because both authors have no name in climate science. Kevin Cowtan is a theoretical physicist and computer specialist at the Department of Chemistry at his University. Robert Way is still busy writing his doctorate dissertation.

It’s been a full year since the appearance of the dubious paper by Cowtan and Way, one that was highly praised by Stefan Rahmstorf. So just how was this pioneering paper received by the science community? On January 29, 2015 the answer from their colleagues appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters. The dodgy Arctic data fill-in model has failed spectacularly and has been soundly rejected. The answer to the pause is not to be found in the Arctic as Cowtan and Way suspected, rather it is to be found at the lower geographical geographical latitudes, as a team of scientists of the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen led by Hans Gleisner reports in a new publication. What follows is the paper’s abstract:

Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low-latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data
Over the last 15 years, global mean surface temperatures exhibit only weak trends. Recent studies have attempted to attribute this so called temperature hiatus to several causes, amongst them incomplete sampling of the rapidly warming Arctic region. We here examine zonal mean temperature trends in satellite-based tropospheric data sets (based on data from (Advanced) Microwave Sounding Unit and Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation instruments) and in global surface temperatures (HadCRUT4). Omission of successively larger polar regions from the global mean temperature calculations, in both tropospheric and surface data sets, shows that data gaps at high latitudes cannot explain the observed differences between the hiatus and the prehiatus period. Instead, the dominating causes of the global temperature hiatus are found at low latitudes. The combined use of several independent data sets, representing completely different measurement techniques and sampling characteristics, strengthens the conclusions.

Joe Bastardi Schools Dr. Michael Mann On How To Read A Weather Chart … Heavy Snow “Is Because It’s Cold”

The Northeast USA is being socked by frightful cold and massive snow. The brutal New England winters are back and now we are witnessing last ditch efforts by disgraced climate scientists to blame the brutally cold winters on a warming planet (which in reality has not warmed in 18 years).

At his latest Saturday Summary at WeatherBell Analytics, chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi delivers a stinging critique of Michael Mann’s recent claims: “Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England right now are at record levels, 11.5C (21F) warmer than normal in some locations.” Mann also claimed there’s two times more moisture in this warm air, and thus is responsible for the turbocharged snowy icebox winter Boston has been experiencing.

At his Saturday Summary Joe thoroughly demolishes these claims.

Falsehood 1: It’s 11.5°C warmer than normal “off Cape Cod”

Joe calls Mann’s assertions a mistake, and shows that the area of warm sea surface water “off the coast of Cape Cod” is in fact way off the coast. At the 2:25 mark Joe shows how the waters along the eastern seaboard “are close to normal” and that a small patch of 3°C above normal water is some 1000 kilometers off the coast, and that a larger patch of 5°C above normal water is in fact 2000 kilometers off the coast (see following figure):

SatSum 14 Feb 2015

Dr. Mann’s warm water is in fact 2000 kilometers “off the coast”. Cropped from WeatherBELL.

Joe tells his viewers, and Dr. Mann, at the 3.00 mark:

There’s no way that that moisture is getting fed back into New England.”

Climatologists need to learn how to read a weather chart

So why would a climatologist like Mann make such an absurd claim? Joe tells us that a climatologist making a statement does not understand how the weather works, and advises them to first learn how to read a weather chart (2:15) before making such statements.

Falsehood 2: Heavy snow due to warm sea surfaces

The real reason it snowed so much over New England, Joe explains, is because of the “tremendous horizontal temperature gradient” in the area where extremely cold Arctic air clashes with normal temperature maritime air (3:30). It’s the cold, stupid!

At 5:27 Joe explains:

Where this storm was embedded, it’s cooler. You cannot use the argument that we use for warm eddies, and hurricanes where we see some blow up over the warm eddy. You can’t use that with these.”

Falsehood 3: Two times higher water vapor in the air

At the 5:45 mark the veteran Penn State graduate meteorologist shows the water vapor situation in the region where the storm developed:

During this time of the snow blitz over New England, the mixing ratios, which is the water vapor, is below normal! It’s below normal! It’s not above normal! In the area that we’re targeting, this period that we’re looking at, that had all this snow, is below normal.”

Snow (surprise!) is due to cold

The reason why water vapor is so low is “because it’s so darn cold”. The heavy snowfalls are related to the extreme cold, and not the unrelated warm patch 2000 kilometers “off Cape Cod” (6:10).

At the 7:47 mark Joe summarizes on warmist climatolgists’ claims:

If they’d looked at this, they would have seen how bogus their argument is. There is nothing above normal in that area. What happened was that it was so darn cold that it creates a very strong horizontal temperature gradient. […] It’s not because it’s so much warmer and humid off the eastern seaboard; it’s the exact opposite reason in this particular case. […] It’s because it’s cold.”

At the 9:30 mark Joe shows a chart of the AMO which that he says “has major implications“. The AMO has dipped sharply downwards, and although the current PDO is warm, it will turn colder within a couple of years. Implication: don’t expect global warming anytime soon.

Also Joe explains how cold winters across the United States are predominantly dependent on the ENSO. In years of El Nino spikes, US winters do greatly tend to be colder.

In summary this year’s brutal New England winter has nothing to do with the bogus, made-up explanations being served up by climatologists who are desperate to salvage their disgraced science.