Missed A Few, IPCC? 368 New 2018 Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarmism

In the first 9½ months of 2018,  368 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.

These 368 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.

More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.

N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.

N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

N(3) The computer climate models are neither reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.

N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).

In sharp contrast to the above, the corresponding “consensus” positions that these papers do not support are:

A(1) Close to or over 100% (110%) of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leaving natural attribution at something close to 0%.

RealClimate.org: “The best estimate of the warming due to anthropogenic forcings (ANT) is the orange bar (noting the 1𝛔 uncertainties). Reading off the graph, it is 0.7±0.2ºC (5-95%) with the observed warming 0.65±0.06 (5-95%). The attribution then follows as having a mean of ~110%, with a 5-95% range of 80–130%. This easily justifies the IPCC claims of having a mean near 100%, and a very low likelihood of the attribution being less than 50% (p < 0.0001!).”

A(2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities…are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)…and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.

A(3) The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural forcing factors (solar activity, clouds, water vapor, etc.) and CO2 concentration changes on climate is “settled enough“, which means that “the time for debate has ended“.

A(4) The proposed solutions to mitigate the dangerous consequences described in N(4) – namely, wind and solar expansion – are safe, effective, and environmentally-friendly.

To reiterate, the 368 papers compiled in 2018 thus far support the N(1)-N(4) positions, and they undermine or at least do not support the “consensus” A(1)-A(4) positions.  The papers do not do more than that.   Expectations that these papers should do more than support skeptical positions and undermine “consensus” positions to “count” are deemed unreasonable in this context.

Below are the three links to the list of  2018 papers amassed as of the 15th of October, 2018, as well as the guideline for the lists’ categorization.

Finally, a sampling of some of the new papers is also included below.

Skeptic Papers 2018 (1)

Skeptic Papers 2018 (2)

Skeptic Papers 2018 (3)


Part 1. Natural Climate Change Observation, Reconstruction

Warming Since Mid/Late 20th Century? (30)
A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (58)
Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (12)
Sea Levels Multiple Meters Higher 4,000-7,000 Years Ago (12)
A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (25)
Mass Extinction Events Caused By Glaciation, Sea Level Fall (3)
Antarctic Ice Melting In High Geothermal Heat Flux Areas (2)
Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (5)

Part 2. Natural Mechanisms Of Weather, Climate Change  

Solar Influence On Climate (78)
ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (19)
Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (8)
Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (4)
Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (2)
The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (9)

Part 3. Unsettled Science, Failed Climate Modeling

Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (19)
Urban Heat Island: Raising Surface Temperatures Artificially (3)
Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (11)
Wind Power Harming The Environment, Biosphere (10)
Elevated CO2: Greens Planet, Higher Crop Yields (7)
Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (7)
Warming, Acidification Not Harming Oceanic Biosphere (7)
Coral Bleaching A Natural, Non-Anthropogenic Phenomenon (2)
No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (6)
No Increasing Trend In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (6)
Natural CO2 Emissions A Net Source, Not A Net Sink (5)
Global Fire Frequency Declining As CO2 Rises (2)
CO2 Change Lags Temperature Change By 1000+ Years (3)
Miscellaneous (12)
Scientists: We Don’t Understand (1)


Non-Hockey Sticks: A Few Thousand Years Ago It Was 1-3°C Warmer Than Today

Papadomanolaki et al., 2018  (Baltic Sea)  A large fraction of the Baltic Proper became hypoxic again between 1.4 and 0.7 ka BP, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), when mean air temperatures were 0.9–1.4 °C higher than temperatures recorded in the period 1961–1990 (e.g. Mann et al., 2009; Jilbert and Slomp, 2013).
Leonard et al., 2018  (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)  Coral derived sea surface temperature (SST-Sr/Ca) reconstructions demonstrate conditions ∼1 ◦C warmer than present at ∼6200 (recalibrated 14C) and 4700 yr BP, with a suggested increase in salinity range (δ18O) associated with amplified seasonal flood events, suggestive of La Niña (Gagan et al., 1998; Roche et al., 2014).
Suvorov and Kitov, 2018  (Eastern Sayan, Siberia)  The authors examined the variability of activity of modern glaciation and variation of natural conditions of the periglacial zone on climate and on dendrochronological data. Results of larch and Siberian stone pine growth data were revealed at the higher border of forest communities. …  It is believed that the temperature could be 3.5 °C warmer at the Holocene optimum than at the present time (Vaganov and Shiyatov 2005). … Since 2000, there has been growth of trees instability associated with a decrease in average monthly summer temperatures. …  Since the beginning of 2000, decrease in summer temperatures was marked.
Lozhkin et al., 2018  (East Siberia)  The postglacial occurrence of relatively warm/dry and warm/wet intervals is consistent with results of a regional climate‐model simulation that indicates warmer than present temperatures and decreased effective moisture at 11 000 cal. a BP and persistence of warm conditions but with greater moisture and longer growing season at 6000 cal. a BP.
Smith, 2018  (Greenland Ice Sheet)     To project how much sea level will rise in response to ongoing climate warming, one of the things we need to know is how sensitive the rate of Greenland Ice Sheet melting is to rising temperatures. McFarlin et al. present results from a set of sediment cores from a small nonglacial lake in the highlands of northwest Greenland, which contain deposits from the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG). They found midge assemblages indicating peak July temperatures that were 4.0° to 7.0°C warmer than modern temperatures during the early Holocene and at least 5.5° to 8.5°C warmer during the LIG. This perspective of extreme warming suggests that even larger changes than predicted for this region over the —–coming century may be in store.
Kullman, 2018  (Scandes, Northern Sweden)     The present paper reports results from an extensive project aiming at improved understanding of postglacial subalpine/alpine vegetation, treeline, glacier and climate history in the Scandes of northern Sweden. The main methodology is analyses of mega fossil tree remnants, i.e. trunks, roots and cones, recently exposed at the fringe of receding glaciers and snow/ice patches. This approach has a spatial resolution and accuracy, which exceeds any other option for tree cover reconstruction in high-altitude mountain landscapes. …  All recovered tree specimens originate from exceptionally high elevations, about 600-700 m atop of modern treeline positions. … Conservatively drawing on the latter figure and a summer temperature lapse rate of 0.6 °C per 100 m elevation (Laaksonen 1976), could a priori mean that, summer temperatures were at least 4.2 °C warmer than present around 9500 year before present. However, glacio-isostatic land uplift by at least 100 m since that time (Möller 1987; Påsse & Anderson 2005) implies that this figure has to be reduced to 3.6 °C higher than present-day levels, i.e. first decades of the 21st century. Evidently, this was the warmth peak of the Holocene, hitherto. This inference concurs with paleoclimatic reconstructions from Europe and Greenland (Korhola et al. 2002; Bigler et al. 2003; Paus 2013; Luoto et al. 2014; Väliranta et al. 2015).
Borisova, 2018  (central East European Plain)     Paleobotanical assemblages from peat, lake, and archaeological deposits reveal that during the Middle Holocene (MH; ca. 9.0 to 4.7 kyr BP), the central East European Plain was occupied by highly productive and diverse mixed-oak forests, along with mire, meadow, and riverine communities. Climatic reconstructions based on modern analogues of fossil pollen and plant macrofossil assemblages indicate that throughout the MH [Middle Holocene] mean annual precipitation was at near present levels (~600 mm) and July temperatures were similar to those of today (~17°C). However, differences in the Fossil Floras (FFs) suggest changes in winter conditions though the MH [Middle Holocene, 9.0 to 4.7 kyr BP], with January temperatures higher than the present-day value of -10°C by 2°C in the Early Atlantic, 6°C in the Middle Atlantic, and 3°C in the Late Atlantic-Early Subboreal. The annual frost-free period was 15 days longer than today in the Early Atlantic, about one month longer in the Late Atlantic, and became close to present by the beginning of the Subboreal. The combination of warm winters with diverse and productive vegetation communities provided an environment that was more hospitable than that of today for Late Mesolithic and Neolithic societies.
McFarlin et al., 2018    (Greenland)  Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures [Greenland] 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum [10,000 to 8,000 years ago] in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern.
Bartels et al., 2018  (North Atlantic Region)     During summer, AW [Atlantic Water] rises up to waterdepths as shallow as ~55 m. … Summer surface temperatures [1955-2012] range between up to 3°C at the northern mouth and <-1.5 °C at the southern mouth of the Hinlopen Strait, while winter surface temperatures vary between 0.5 and <~1.5°C (averaged, 1955–2012; Locarnini et al. 2013). … Increased summer insolation probably amplified the surface melting of the glaciers resulting in enhanced meltwater production and in a very high accumulation of finegrained sediments within the fjord […].  In addition, during the mild early Holocene conditions, summer sea-surface temperatures probably reaching 8–10°C [~5 – 9.5°C warmer than 1955-2012] (indicated by M. edulis findings as discussed in Hansen et al. 2011) may have contributed to reducing the number of glaciers that entered the fjord directly as tidewater glaciers and thus causing a diminished IRD input. These comparably warm surface temperatures most likely resulted in a reduced sea ice cover during summer, which is also reflected in the sea-ice biomarker data exhibiting lowest IP25 values during the early Holocene. … [G]lacier advances are most likely caused by atmospheric cooling as indicated, e.g. by d18O values from the Greenland NGRIP ice-core (Rasmussen et al.  2014a), by data from peats and permafrost soils on Spitsbergen (e.g. Humlum et al. 2003; Humlum 2005; Jaworski 2016), and by evidence that solar activity reduced around 2.7 ka, contributing to a cooling in both hemispheres (van Geel et al. 1999, 2000). … In lake sediments from northwestern Spitsbergen a temperature drop of ~6°C is recorded between c. 7.8 and c. 7 ka [-0.8°C per century], which has been connected to a stronger influence of Arctic Water and expanding sea ice (van der Bilt et al. 2018).
Street-Perrot et al., 2018  (Estonia)     Estimates of summer temperatures in Estonia based on rapidly responding proxies such as aquatic macrofossils (Valiranta et al., 2015) and chironomids (Heiri et al., 2014) suggest conditions 2 °C warmer than today during the early Holocene.
Pozachenuk, 2018 (Western Russia)  Mass peat accumulation in the territory of Vyatka region began only in the first half of the Atlantic Holocene period. The maximum warming corresponds to the second half of at (climatic optimum Holocene), when the average temperatures of January and July exceeded modern 2-3˚C. at this time in the region formed coniferous-broad-leaved forests of complex composition, with a slight presence of broad-leaved species (Qercus, Tilia, Ulmus) and Corulus. Siberian element of flora-fir on the territory of Vyatka region appeared only in the Subatlantic period of Holocene, most likely due to climatic conditions.
Kolaczek et al., 2018 (Southeastern Poland)    The reconstruction of the mean July temperature based on Chironomidae revealed the exceptionally high rate of warming during the period of ca. 11,490–11,460 cal. BP (at least 1 °C per decade) up to values > 2 °C than modern ones. … Between ca. 11,490 and 11,460 cal. BP, the strongest warming trend in the Early Holocene MJT was registered, that is from 15 to 20.7°C (0.19°C yr1, 1.9°C/decade). Then, ca. 11,450 cal. BP, the temperature decreased to 18.3°C and up to ca. 10,560 cal. BP MJT fluctuated between 17  and 19°C. The climate of the area [today] is classified as cold temperate with mean annual air temperature of 8.2°C  and mean annual precipitation 620 mm. A mean temperature of the warmest month, i.e. July, is +18.2°C [today], whereas a mean temperature of the coldest month, i.e. January, is -3.6°C.
Ruskeeniemi et al., 2018  (Greenland Ice Sheet)     Towards the Holocene Climatic Optimum, temperatures steadily increased and were 2.5°C higher than at present during 8000-5000 cal years BP. It is suggested that the GrIS started to re-advance after 4400 cal years BP due to cooling, with 0.5°C lower temperatures than at present around 2000 years BP. Within the LIA, Dahl-Jensen et al. (1998) identified two cold periods at 1550 AD and 1850 AD, with temperatures respectively 0.5°C and 0.7°C below the present values. At around 1930 AD, the temperatures reached a maximum and have slightly decreased thereafter.

The CO2 Greenhouse Effect: Climate Driver?

Davis et al., 2018     [T]he contemporary global warming increase of ~0.8 °C recorded since 1850 has been attributed widely to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Recent research has shown, however, that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been decoupled from global temperature for the last 425 million years [Davis, 2017owing to well-established diminishing returns in marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF) as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases. Marginal forcing of temperature from increasing CO2 emissions declined by half from 1850 to 1980, and by nearly two-thirds from 1850 to 1999 [Davis, 2017]. Changes in atmospheric CO2 therefore affect global temperature weakly at mostThe anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis has been embraced partly because “…there is no convincing alternative explanation…” [USGCRP, 2017] (p. 12). …  The ACO [Antarctic Centennial Oscillation] provides a possible [natural] alternative explanation in the form of a natural climate cycle that arises in Antarctica, propagates northward to influence global temperature, and peaks on a predictable centennial timetable. … The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.
Smirnov, 2018     From this, it follows for the change of the global temperature as a result at doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules [is] ∆T = (0.4 ± 0.1) K, where the error accounts for the accuracy of used values, whereas the result depends on processes included in the above scheme. Indeed, we assume the atmospheric and Earth’s albedo, as well as another interaction of solar radiation with the atmosphere and Earth, to be unvaried in the course of the change of the concentration of CO2 molecules, and also the content of atmospheric water is conserved. Because anthropogenic fluxes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulted from combustion of fossil fuels is about 5% [Kaufman, 2007], the contribution of the human activity to ECS (the temperature change as a result of doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount) is ∆T = 0.02 K, i.e. injections of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil fuels is not important for the greenhouse effect.
Fleming, 2018     This manuscript will review the essence of the role of  CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. The logic of  CO2 involvement in changing the climate will be investigated from every perspective: reviewing the historical data record, examining in further detail the twentieth-century data record, and evaluating the radiation role of  CO2 in the atmosphere—calculating and integrating the Schwarzschild radiation equation with a full complement of  CO2 absorption coefficients. A review of the new theory of climate change—due to the Sun’s magnetic field interacting with cosmic rays, is provided. The application of this new theory is applied to climate-change events within the latter part of the Earth’s interglacial period. … The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … Many believe and/or support the notion that the Earth’s atmosphere is a “greenhouse” with CO2 as the primary “greenhouse” gas warming Earth. That this concept seems acceptable is understandable—the modern heating of the Earth’s atmosphere began at the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. The industrial revolution took hold about the same time. It would be natural to believe that these two events could be the reason for the rise in temperature. There is now a much clearer picture of an alternative reason for why the Earth’s surface temperature has risen since 1850. … There is no correlation of CO2 with temperature in any historical data set that was reviewed. The climate-change cooling over the 1940–1975 time period of the Modern Warming period was shown to be influenced by a combination of solar factors. The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connection. When the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms. Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools. The factors that affect these climate changes were reviewed in “Solar magnetic field/cosmic ray factors affecting climate change” section. The calculations of “H2O and CO2 in the radiation package” section revealed that there is no net impact of CO2 on the net heating of the atmosphere. The received heat is simply redistributed within the atmospheric column. This result is consistent and explains the lack of CO2 correlations with observations in the past. The current Modern Warming will continue until the solar magnetic field decreases in strength. If one adds the 350-year cycle from the McCracken result to the center of the Maunder Minimum which was centered in 1680, one would have a Grand Minimum centered in the year 2030.
Holmes, 2018     In short, there is unlikely to be any significant net warming from the greenhouse effect on any planetary body in the parts of atmospheres which are >10kPa. Instead, it is proposed that the residual temperature difference between the effective temperature and the measured near-surface temperature, is a thermal enhancement caused by gravitationally-induced adiabatic auto compression, powered by convection. A new null hypothesis of global warming or climate change is therefore proposed and argued for; one which does not include any anomalous or net warming from greenhouse gases in the tropospheric atmospheres of any planetary body. … A decline of 6% in lower tropospheric tropical cloud cover (15°N–15°S) occurred 1984 – 2000 according to the international satellite cloud climatology project’s data [29]. These years are contained well with the 1975-2000 period of warming, and an observed 0.4°C rise in global temperatures occurred over the same period. Scatter diagrams [55] of low cloud cover vs global surface air temperatures indicate that a 1% fall in low clouds equates to a 0.07°C rise in surface air temperatures – hence this change in cloudiness accounts for the entire observed rise in global temperatures during the 1975-2000 period, leaving no room for any effect from growing greenhouse gases.
Ollila, 2018         The temperature effects of the water and CO2 are based on spectral analysis calculations, which show that water is 11.8 times stronger a GH gas than CO2 in the present climate. … There are essential features in the long-term trends of temperature and TPW [total precipitable water], which are calculated and depicted as mean values 11 years running. The temperature has increased about 0.4°C since 1979 and has now paused at this level. The long-term trend of TPW effects shows that it has slightly decreased during the temperature-increasing period from 1979 to 2000. This means that the absolute water amount in the atmosphere does not follow the temperature increase, but is practically constant, reacting only very slightly to the long-term trends of temperature changes. The assumption that relative humidity is constant and that it amplifies the GH gas changes over the longer periods by doubling the warming effects finds no grounds based on the behavior of the TWP [total precipitable water] trend. The positive water feedback exists only during the short-term ENSO events (≤4 years). … The validity of the IPCC model can be tested against the observed temperature. It turns out that the IPCC-calculated temperature increase for 2016 is 1.27°C, which is 49 per cent higher than the observed 0.85°C. This validity test means that the IPCC climate forcing model using the radiative forcing value of CO2 is too sensitive for CO2 increase, and the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter, including the positive water feedback doubling the GH gas effects, does not exist.  The CO2 emissions from 2000 onward represent about one-third of the total emissions since 1750, but the temperature has not increased, and it has paused at the present level. This is worthy proof that the IPCC’s climate model has overestimated human-induced causes and has probably underestimated natural causes like the sun’s activity changes, considering the historical temperatures during the past 2000 years. … The RF [radiative forcing] value for the CO2 concentration of 560 ppm is 2.16 Wm−2 according to equation (3), which is 42 per cent smaller than 3.7 Wm−2 used by the IPCC. The same study of Ollila (2014) shows that the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter λ is 0.27 K/(Wm−2), which means that there is no water feedback. Using this λ value, equation (3) gives a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] value of 0.6°C only. This same result is also reported by Harde (2014) using the spectral analysis method. …There are both theoretical- and measurement-based studies showing results that can be explained only by the fact that there is no positive water feedback. This result reduces the CS [climate sensitivity] by 50 per cent. Some research studies show that the RF [radiative forcing] value of carbon dioxide is considerably smaller than the commonly used RF value, according to the equation of Myhre et al. (1998). Because of these two causes, the critical studies show a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] of about 0.6°C instead of 1.9°C by the IPCC, a 200 per cent difference.
Liu and Chen, 2018     CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally(mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect: temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R~2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2. However, the R~2 shows much less significance (mean R~2=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature(mean R~2=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture: human emission drives global warming.
Laubereau and Iglev, 2018     Using a simple 1-dimensional model the global warming of the surface is computed that is generated by the increase of GHG and the albedo change. A modest effect by the GHG of 0.08 K is calculated for the period 1880 to 1955 with a further increase by 0.18 K for 1955 to 2015. A larger contribution of 0.55 ± 0.05 K is estimated for the melting of polar sea ice (MSI) in the latter period, i.e. it notably exceeds that of the GHG and may be compared with the observed global temperature rise of 1.0 ± 0.1 K during the past 60 years. … In conclusion we wish to say that we have performed a study of the infrared properties of carbon dioxide, methane, dinitrogen-oxide and water to estimate their contribution to the global warming in 1880 – 2015. Our results suggest that the IR properties of the CO2 are responsible for ~ 20% of the mean temperature increase of the surface and notably less for CH4 and N2O.

The Green Mob: Dutch Filmmaker Attacked For Climate/Energy Critical Movie …Received “Anonymous Threats”!

Left-leaning filmmaker German-Dutch filmmaker Martin Poels has produced some 50 films over the past 15 years.

German-Dutch film maker Martin Poels has come under attack for questioning climate dogma. Image cropped here.

His most recent film is titled Paradogma – a personal journey why true liberty needs heretics, It focusses on current controversial debates such as climate change, and how dissenters are being silenced.

Martin Poels recently wrote: “People who dare to question important themes today, are often silenced or labeled as suspicious and dangerous and that we now find ourselves “in a new era where world views clash and free speech crumbles under pressure to conform.”

German liberty under threat

And because Poels has been critical concerning the state of the climate debate, he has been threatened and marginalized.

German mainstream media has silenced the film, and anonymous threats have been launched against Poels, which show that the topic of climate and energy has become type of religion.

And anyone who questions this religion gets shut out of the public discussion forum.

Nevertheless journalist Jörg Rehmann spoke with Poels after the screening of his film in Brussels at the end of last year:

According to the interview:

Since Martin Poels has become critical about the contradictions of climate science, he has been blocked out by the German media and threatened by green lobbyists and at times called a Nazi.”

In the interview he begins by stating that because the film looks at climate and energy, it is a difficult topic because of the deep political dogma that it involves. “But the biggest problem,” Poels said, “Is that the media refuses to report on it.”

Climate: “forged” consensus that must not be disturbed

Poels mentions that they were successful, however, getting the film shown in 100 cinemas. Overall he calls the subject of climate in Germany a dogma that it is very difficult to criticize. He calls climate consensus something that was forged, and not something that is to be disturbed.

Hostile Greenpeace?

The filmmaker speaks of having received threats from organizations, such as Greenpeace, so much so that he became afraid. He said: “I got a call warning that I should better stop the film, before you really get problems.” He says the call was anonymous, but his understanding was that it came from Greenpeace.

Next Poels describes how some people reacted when the film was shown. He said: “Sometimes there were people who got really aggressive in their talk against me”.

“Shameful” media

He then calls the German publicly funded media’s role in the climate topic “shameful”, as it is clear that the green energy issue is not a topic that is to be questioned nor discussed.

Either you’re with us, or against us

Poels also notes that the topic of green energies can be discussed and criticizesd in Holland, but that it Germany the issue of green energies has become very sensitive and criticism is not welcome “because rescuing the climate is good, and when you criticize it, it means you no longer want to save the planet.” It’s: either you’re with us, or against us. Poels calls this radical mindset “nonsense”.

Corrupted by business interests

Poels sees green energies as desirable, but currently he believes they are a social injustice, as the rich benefit and the poor have to bear the costs. Moreover, they are harming the environment more than they are helping.

The flim also shows that the science is long from being settled, thus contradicting claims often made by alarmist scientists and the media. Poels believes that the science has been corrupted in part by lobbyists “where the target is no longer the target, and that business has become the target itself.” He adds:

For me, that’s one explanation why we are not allowed to discuss it. Because it criticizes not only climate change, but the business behind it.”

Biased media has abandoned its job

For Poels, this corruption by self interest is simply being neglected by the German public media: “There are simply rules within the media that say to talk about climate change uncritically – only positively. That’s a law within the media business.”

In total, Poels believes German journalism has long abandoned it’s neutrality on the topic of climate change and green energies. “It’s only politics.” He comments further:

Not only the science is politicized, but so are the media.”

German media “really frightening”

Poels then says the media are more open in the Netherlands, but finds the situation in Berlin “really frightening”. He agrees that in Germany it’s enough to express skepticism on climate science in order to be labelled a fringe right winger.

He finds it ironic that the media often accuse climate skeptics of conspiracy theories, but at the same time subscribe to the conspiracy theory that oil companies helped fund his film.

Academic arrogance

In the area of academia, Poels says overall the film has been received positively and openly by most students, but that professors have composed themselves arrogantly and simply dismiss the film’s content offhand after viewing it. One example, Poels cites, is how one professor simply dismissed a critical student – who had challenged the professor – as “a student who still had a lot to learn”.

Energiewende at a dead-end

In summary Poels agrees that the German Energiewende has reached a dead-end and that the establishment is no longer capable of learning lessons.

Historically, that all sounds familiar.

German ‘Die Welt’: “1.5°C Target Appears Utopian”, No Longer Attainable…”Clock Ran Out Already Weeks Ago”

Daniel Wetzel at German national daily Die Welt here recently commented that limiting the warming to 1.5°C warming is utopian. That’s of course, assuming the man-made global warming theory is correct to begin with.

According Wetzel, time theoretically ran out long ago.

Wetzel wrote that despite all the controversy surrounding the IPCC report, one thing is clear: “It’s going to take trillions for the 1.5°C target . And without many veggie days, it’s not going to happen.”

The green urgency for a state of emergency

Even before the report was released to the public, environmentalists and climate activists had already made up their minds that humanity had one last chance to avert calamity. Profound wide-scale action would need to be taken. Green politicians and environmental activists are now demanding a declaration of a state of emergency, it seems. Theoretically however, the window in fact closed weeks ago.

Misrepresenting the report

For Germany, green-colored or shaded politicians and activists said the report confirms that Germany must exit coal power by 2025 at the latest. But Wetzel comments that many special interests are framing the report as something that it really isn’t:

Every lobbyist is taking out of the UN climate report what what appeals to them, and leave everything else aside.”

Clock stuck at 5 to 12, in fact ran out weeks ago

Wetzel comments that the urgent claims made by the Greens that there is still a small window of opportunity is “surprising” because according to the Mercator Research Institute’s (MCC) “CO2 countdown clock“, time already ran out 30 days ago even for the mid range scenarios, meaning there wasn’t supposed to any more CO2 emissions at all. But Wetzel writes:

In the latest climate report, suddenly there’s 300 gigatonnes more. […] Indeed on in this manner does the world gain 7.5 years time for CO2 reductions, says Oliver Geden, a lead author for the next UN report.”

He cites Chapter C1.4, footnote no. 14 of the report.

A TRILLION dollars a year

According to Wetzel, the UN report also notes that between 900 billion and 1.8 trillion dollars would need to be invested every year from 2015 – 2050 to revamp the global energy system. This is a figure that even the richest nations are going run from.

Currently Germany’s Energiewende alone is costing Germany 34 billion euros annually. Worse, there’s been no CO2 reduction in Germany in close to a decade. That’s some 300 billion euros for zero result. Wetzel adds that Germany has already reached its threshold of financial pain as electricity prices have soared to among the highest worldwide.

Wetzel points out severe “limitations in nutrition are needed”

The Die Welt economics journalist also writes that the German Greens forget to tell the public that it would be necessary to “commit some 8 million square kilometers of agricultural area to growing energy plants in order to reach the 1.5°C warming target.”

Moreover reaching the target would also require going much more without meat, whose production is energy and CO2 intensive. Overall, Wetzel writes, reaching the 1.5°C target “collides with the fight against poverty and hunger” and , if the theory is true, there’s no chance of reaching the 1.5°C target.

 

Sea Level Shock…Satellite Imagery Shows Coral Islands Expanding! …”Results Challenge Existing Narratives Of Island Loss”

Despite sea level rise, Tuvalu Islands surface area have grown 3% over the past decades

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The South Sea islands are sinking. Send us money and visas for Australia and USA fast! That’s the underlying message of many media reports on the problem of sea level rise and their effects on the Pacific Coral Islands. Here science simply gets cast aside.

Since coral islands are made up of living organisms that have always lived just below the sea level, the islands “float” like ships on the surface of the ocean. When sea level goes up, so do the corals. This is already something you learn in geography lessons at school.

Paul Kench and his colleagues have now measured the shorelines of all 101 islands of Tuvalu for the last 40 years using satellite imagery. The result: The land area grew by just under 3% during this period, despite a fairly strong regional sea-level rise of 4 mm per year. Here is the abstract of the work that appeared in February 2018 in Nature Communications:

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.”

Source: Nature Communications

The discussion part of the paper states:

Results challenge existing narratives of island loss showing that island expansion has been the most common physical alteration throughout Tuvalu over the past four decades. Of significance, documented increases in island area over this period have occurred as the sea level has been rising.”

New Paper: Extreme Sea Level Rise Is A ‘Non-Existent Threat’ Based On ‘Never Validated’ Models

Extreme sea level rise warnings based on predictions by never validated models, or speculations, that are defocusing coastal management from every other relevant situation, should be discharged.” — Parker, 2018


Parker, 2018

Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of

the 20th century and consequences for coastal management

“Regionally, the sea levels in the PRD [Pearl River Delta, China] region and Japan show no significant acceleration from 1900 to present, but only oscillations. This result is consistent with the other coastal area of the world where long-term tide gauges are located. Policy making, and management, should therefore focus on adaptive measures linked to the monitoring by tide gauges and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) of relative sea level rise and land subsidence. Extreme sea level rise warnings based on predictions by never validated models, or speculations, that are defocusing coastal management from every other relevant situation, should be discharged.”
[T]he long-term tide gauges of the world show no significant sign of sea level acceleration since the start of the 20th century.”
“Ocean and coastal management in the area should be based on the accurate monitoring of the relative sea level rise and the subsidence of the land by coupled tide gauge and Global Navigation Satellite System measurements, rather than models’ predictions and speculations defocusing coastal management from more relevant situations than the non-existent threat of extreme sea level rise.”

German Climate Scientist Accuses IPCC Of Alarmism: “In The Red Rev Range Of Ideology And Reality Loss”

A retired German climate scientist says the IPCC has ventured into “the red rev range of ideology and reality loss”, and adds there is no stringent scientific proof of CO2’s influence on climate

At the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), a German climate scientist, wonders if the IPCC and German media have lost their grip on reality as they place the blame for global warming on human CO2 emissions.

Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke writes that the IPCC is in the “red rev range of ideology and reality loss” as the German media and politicians renew their calls to drastically cut back CO2 emissions in order to keep the planet from “dangerously overheating”.

The German climate scientist, however, says CO2’s impact on the climate are exorbitantly overblown.

Germany’s share of global CO2 negligible

First Prof. Lüdecke reminds that Germany’s share of global CO2 emissions is so puny that any reductions efforts by the country will have no detectable effect on global temperatures, and cites a Report of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

In the report’s Fig. 2.3 we see:

Image (Fig. 2.3): Emissions of climate gases worldwide (here)

As the chart shows, the European Union share of global emissions is only 9%. At 2.5%, Germany is a mere fraction of that.

“Already we see that our share globally is negligible,” Lüdecke writes.

“Fictional” damage

Lüdecke also doubts the large role CO2 is claimed to have on climate, and characterizes the notion the climate is somehow damaged by human CO2 as “fictional”.

“No stringent proof” manmade CO2 influences climate

The retired German professor also says that according to the scientific literature: “To date, there is no stringent proof that the anthropogenic, i.e. human-made (!) CO2 has exerted any influence on the climate which is clearly traceable to this source.”

Lüdecke adds that the temperature increase seen at the end of the 20th century is well within the range of natural variability and is not unusual and that, if anything, CO2 is good for the planet.

Wind Energy Won’t Function For Supplying Germany With Power, Experts Say

As Germany moves to phase out coal power, more focus is being placed on relying on wind energy to fill in the gap.

Recently German business daily Handelsblatt here reported that despite the country adding more wind energy capacity, “the latest figures show that only a little wind power is available at any time.”

According to the German BWE wind energy group, 29,900 wind turbines are currently operating in the country with a total capcity of 56,000 megawatts. Wind energy makes up 18.8% of the country’s power supply.

Glaring weaknesses

But the Handelsblatt reports there are “glaring weaknesses” and that wind turbines cannot be relied on to deliver steady power when it’s needed.

According to Oliver Then, Managing Director of the VGB PowerTech Association, citing recent research results which the Handelsblatt has obtained: “The actual production figures show that the readily available wind power capacity in Germany is less than one percent of installed capacity.”

Back up absolutely necessary

According to the Handelsblatt, VGB PowerTech evaluated 2016 data from a number of European countries, and reports that the message is clear:

Even if the expansion of wind power progresses rapidly, there will always have to be back-up capacity, for example in the form of fossil power plants.”

VGB Director Oliver Then says that as more and more green energies get fed in, the less gas and fossil fuels plants operate, and thus making them no longer profitable. Yet they remain absolutely essential to keep the grid stable.

Can rely on neighboring countries?

Proponents of green energies who support a rapid fossil fuel phaseout insist that it can be done, and that Germany would only need to rely increasingly on a power supply from neighboring countries. When the wind is not blowing in Germany, power could be imported from another country where the wind is blowing.

But VGB Director Oliver Then says the data do not support this claim in any way, adding, “Power production is strongly synchronous over great distances.”

This means that if wind lacks in Germany, it often lacks in Poland as well and so neighbors cannot be relied on to provide electricity.

Pump storage not feasible

Pump storage as a way to store energy is also not feasible says Then, saying it would need to be increased 1000 fold, which would entail enormous costs. Then notes that periods of no wind extending two weeks are not uncommon in Germany.

Reliable? CRU, NASA, BEST, NOAA Land Temp Data Conflict By Up To 90% (0.8°C), Spawning ‘Large Uncertainty’

A new paper documents “remarkably different” land temperatures from one instrumental data set to another. In some regions there is as much as an 0.8°C conflict in recorded temperature anomalies for CRU, NASA, BEST, and NOAA. The relative temperature trend differences can reach 90% when comparing instrumental records. Consequently, the uncertainty in instrumental temperature trends — “0.097–0.305°C per decade for recent decades (i.e., 1981–2017)” —  is as large or larger than the alleged overall warming trend itself for this period.


In a just-published audit of the IPCC-preferred HadCRUT temperature data set, Dr. John McClean identified 70 problems that seriously compromise the reliability and accuracy of this IPCC-preferred instrumental record dating back to 1850.

Joanne Nova provides a summary of the main points from the paper, McLean’s Ph.D thesis.

  • McLean found freakishly improbable data, and systematic adjustment errors , large gaps where there is no data, location errors, Fahrenheit temperatures reported as Celsius, and spelling errors.
  • Almost no quality control checks have been done: outliers that are obvious mistakes have not been corrected – one town in Columbia spent three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C.  One town in Romania stepped out from summer in 1953 straight into a month of Spring at minus 46°C. These are supposedly “average” temperatures for a full month at a time. St Kitts, a Caribbean island, was recorded at 0°C for a whole month, and twice!
  • Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
  • Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth’s surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.

Are Any Of The Temperature Data Sets Reliable? 

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research reveals that the recorded land temperature data from the four most commonly-referenced instrumental data sets — CRU, NASA, BEST, and NOAA — are “remarkably different” from one another.

In fact, the authors find that “for some areas, different data sets produce conflicting results of whether warming exists” due especially to variations in the use of “infilling techniques” — adding artificial temperatures to areas where there are no real-world measurements.

One data set trend can be “nearly 90%” different than another data set trend, which ratchets up the uncertainty to levels that undermine confidence in the overall reliability of the instrumental record.

Excerpts from the paper’s abstract and discussion/conclusion are provided below.


Rao et al., 2018

Land Surface Air Temperature Data Are Considerably Different

Among BEST‐LAND, CRU‐TEM4v, NASA‐GISS, and NOAA‐NCEI

“Several groups routinely produce gridded land surface air temperature (LSAT) data sets using station measurements to assess the status and impact of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report suggests that estimated global and hemispheric mean LSAT trends of different data sets are consistent. However, less attention has been paid to the intercomparison at local/regional scales, which is important for local/regional studies. In this study we comprehensively compare four data sets at different spatial and temporal scales, including Berkley Earth Surface Temperature land surface air temperature data set (BEST‐LAND), Climate Research Unit Temperature Data Set version 4 (CRU‐TEM4v), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies data (NASA‐GISS), and data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information (NOAA‐NCEI). The mean LSAT [land surface air temperature] anomalies are remarkably different because of the data coverage differences, with the magnitude nearly 0.4°C for the global and Northern Hemisphere and 0.6°C for the Southern Hemisphere.”

This study additionally finds that on the regional scale, northern high latitudes, southern middletohigh latitudes, and the equator show the largest differences nearly 0.8°C.”

“These differences cause notable differences for the trend calculation at regional scales. At the local scale, four data sets show significant variations over South America, Africa, Maritime Continent, central Australia, and Antarctica, which leads to remarkable differences in the local trend analysis. For some areas, different data sets produce conflicting results of whether warming exists.”

“Our analysis shows that the differences across scales are associated with the availability of stations and the use of infilling techniques. Our results suggest that conventional LSAT data sets using only station observations have large uncertainties across scales, especially over station‐sparse areas.”

The relative difference of trends estimated from different data sets can reach nearly 90% for different regions and time periods. CRU-TEM4v generally appears to have the largest grid box scale differences, while NASA-GISS has the smallest differences compared to BEST-LAND.”

The uncertainty of the LSAT [land surface air temperature] trend estimation caused by the data set differences (i.e., RMSD) ranges from 0.035 to 0.086°C per decade for the long-term trend (i.e., 1901–2017) to 0.097–0.305°C per decade for recent decades (i.e., 1981–2017).”

“In developing future LSAT data sets, the data uncertainty caused by limited and unevenly distributed station observations must be reduced.”

Image Source: Rao et al., 2018

Scotland 800-Year Reconstruction Shows Temperatures Were As Warm Or Warmer In The Past!

Scotland climate over past 800 years: Pre-industrial warm phases provide answers

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

How do today’s temperatures fit into the climate-historical context?

This is one of the main tasks of today’s climate research. A group of researchers led by Milos Rydval have presented a reconstruction of summer temperatures in Scotland over the past 800 years. The results were produced from tree ring examinations.

Surprisingly, the scientists found that the current level of heat in Scotland had been reached and even exceeded several times in the past. These heat spells occurred in the 14th, 16th, and 18th centuries and each spanned over several decades (Figure 1). In between there were cold phases that fit well into the context of the Little Ice Age.

What follows is the abstract of the study published in November 2017 in the journal Climate Dynamics:

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings
This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ‘subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July–August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866–2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.”

Figure 1: Reconstruction of summertime July-August temperatures in Scotland over the past 800 years, based on tree rings. Source: Rydval et al. 2017.

German Handelsblatt: Coal Energy Worldwide Is Booming… “Phaseout Nowhere Near In Sight”

The online German business daily Handelsblatt here writes that although Germany is pressing ahead to eliminate coal as a primary source of energy, the country ignores the fact that world is still very much in love with the plentiful and reliable fossil fuel source of energy.

Coal phaseout nowhere near in sight

And since Germany is well into phasing out nuclear power, the focus has switched to vilifying and shutting down coal-fired power plants and diesel vehicles – all in the name of stopping global warming and fine particle pollution.

Yet, the rest of the globe hardly shares Germany’s enthusiasm when it comes to transitioning to green energies. According to the Handelsblatt, “Worldwide the phasing out of coal is nowhere in sight.”

The Handelsblatt adds, “The 120 largest coal companies have around 1400 new power plants in planning or even under construction in 59 countries.”

1.5°C target will be missed by far

That would translate into the “currently installed capacity growing by a third,” the Handelsblatt writes.

Globally coal power continues to be added. According to environmental activist Heffa-Schücking: “We are going to greatly miss the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.”

Cheating China

Meanwhile some green activists have been trumpeting the claim that China in fact is halting the construction of coal power plants and aiming more and more to go green, parading China as a country whose example we need to follow.

However, qz.com here reports that this claim is likely a sham, and that many of these “halted” plants “are being built anyway”.

Citing CoalSwarm, a global network of researchers tracking fossil-fuel infrastructure, an analysis of satellite imagery as of July 2018 shows that the construction of some 75 plants “is still proceeding, despite the government orders”.

QZ.com reports:

China has been consuming as much as 17 percent more coal each year than reported, according to the new government figures. By some initial estimates, that could translate to almost a billion more tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere annually in recent years, more than all of Germany emits from fossil fuels.”

Clearly the German effort is not going lead the planet anywhere, except perhaps sending a signal about the economic and national security perils of going green.

Moreover, the Handelsblatt reports that China “is  exporting coal technology on a grand scale to other countries as well. Currently they are involved in projects in 17 countries that have capacity of about 60 gigawatts.”

That amount to is equivalent to Germany’s total electric power demand.

“How Trolls Troll” …Nutrition Expert Posts Video On “Trolling” And How To Deal With Them

Many of you are aware that I’m also a big skeptic of the western dietary guidelines we’ve been handed down by the government over the past decades.

Claiming a vast consensus among nutritionists and physicians, government insisted the high carb, low fat diet was the healthiest. Well we all know how that all turned out. Pretty catastrophic!

Only now, after tens of millions of heart attacks and a global epidemic of diabetes, are nutrition skeptics finally getting heard. Yet these skeptics, believe it or not, are still getting trolled even after it has become crystal clear they were right all along.

One skeptic doctor, Dr. Darren Schmidt, was even compelled to produce a video on trolling after having put up with it for so long: How Trolls Troll.

In his video he produces a list of things to keep in mind when confronted by trolls, and tips on how to deal with them effectively.

Moral superiority, Godwin’s Law, refuse to learn

These tips of course apply to climate science, where skeptics are continuously trolled by alarmist bedwetters who insist the climate and planet are in crisis and refuse to hear or believe anything to the contrary.

The trolling described in the video will remind readers of the trolling that we often see at NoTricksZone and elsewhere.

What follows are cropped images of Dr. Schmidt’s list spliced together:

As you will notice, trolling uses the same playbook in climate science, e.g.:

  1. Assuming the moral high ground
  2. Often posting long convoluted diatribes
  3. Refuse to learn
  4. You’re wrong, no matter what.
  5. Disagree on everything.
  6. Insisting on the non-defendable

 

Tokyo Surface Temperature Shows No Trend Over Past Quarter Century…Cooling Now Accelerating

Co-written by Kirye

Tokyo is a huge, sprawling megapolis on the island nation of Japan. With its great urbanization over the past decades, observers could expect to see some warming at least from the urban heat island effect as well as from the “huge” warming the planet has allegedly seen globally over the past 30 years.

But in Tokyo this has not been the case, surprisingly.

The two charts that follow depict temperature data of Tokyo over the past years. The first chart shows the temperature trend for each month, January through December since 1988:

Looking at the chart, we can see that 6 months show a steady or even a cooling trend. Overall over the past 30 years, Tokyo has warmed modestly, but that warming trend, however, is mostly due to the colder years in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

When looking back at the past 24 years, Tokyo has been cooling off:

Data source above charts: 

Even more interesting is the fact that Japan’s capital and largest city has even seen an accelerating cooling over the recent years. The year 2017 was the coldest in over 20 years.

This contradicts claims of runaway warming that we often hear from climate warming alarmists.

Kyoto Cooling?

Also the trend is the same for the city of Kyoto, as is the case for many other cities in Japan:

Kyoto has shown a slight cooling over the past 20 years, as have many other cities in Japan. Data source:

Also the globe has been cooling since the peak that was brought on by the most recent powerful El Nino.

CO2 Connection Demolished… New Findings: “No Statistically Significant Trends In US Flooding And Rainfall From Tropical Storms!

With the blaring headlines we saw in the wake of tropical storm Harvey over Houston last year and Florence over the Carolinas last month, the CO2 hysteria saw another severe flare up.

However, a scientific study recently published in the Journal of Hydrology analyzed North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and their contribution to flooding and rainfall across the US. Hat-tip: a reader.

The result?

No statistically significant trends in magnitude or frequency.

What follows is the paper’s abstract and main take-away points:

Adventurous scientific speculation

Also, leading Univ. of Alabama climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer dismissed any claimed connection between climate change and Hurricane Florence.

On the alarmist claim that hurricanes are slowing down due to jet stream changes, which allegedly result from climate, warming, which allegedly result from a greenhouse effect by added CO2, Spencer dumps cold water on it and seems to characterize the attempt as adventurous speculation:

But like most claims regarding global warming, the real effect is small, probably temporary, and most likely due to natural weather patterns. Any changes in hurricanes over 70 years, even if real, can easily be part of natural cycles — or incomplete data. Coastal lake sediments along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline from 1,000 to 2,000 years ago suggest more frequent and intense hurricanes than occur today. Why? No one knows.”

 

China Pearl River Delta Sea Level Rise Earlier In The Holocene Was Far More Extreme Than Today

A recent study by Xiong et al titled Holocene sea-level history of the northern coast of South China Sea tells us that sea level rise today is total within the range of natural variability.

The scientists collected and analyzed seven sediment cores from the Pearl River delta, from which they generated 16 new and high-quality sea-level index points.

The paper’s abstract writes that the study “re-checked and re-calibrated the previously published sea-level data from China’s southeast coast with corrections made for tectonic subsidence and sediment compaction factors.”

The results, the authors report:

These sea-level data indicate a rise of relative sea level from −49.3 ± 0.8 m to the present height between 10,500 and 7000 cal. a BP. This sea-level history is similar to those recorded from other far-field locations and ice-volume equivalent sea-level models. The early to early-middle Holocene sea-level history in the study area shows a phase of accelerated rise at a rate increasing rapidly from 16.4 ± 6.1 mm/a at 10,500 cal. a BP to 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a at 9500 cal. a BP. This phase was followed by a period of rapid decrease in the rate of sea-level rise to 8.8 ± 1.9 mm/a at 8500 cal. a BP and 1.7 ± 1.3 mm/a at 7500 cal. a BP. During the past 7000 years, the relative sea level in the study area changed very little. This new and complete history of Holocene sea-level change supports the following findings: (1) no obvious higher-than-present sea-level highstand in the Holocene is found from the northern South China Sea; (2) certain proportion of the effects of the predicted glacial isostatic adjustment were cancelled out by the effects of the weak upper mantle viscosity in the study area; (3) meltwater pulse 1b likely exists spanning into the early Holocene; (4) there are significant misfit between sea-level data and glacial isostatic adjustment models, and a revision to the existing ice melting history for the early Holocene is possibly needed.”

Overall the study finds: “The rate of relative sea-level rise had varied and peaked at 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a around 9500 cal. a BP.”

When comparing today’s current sea level rise of just 2 mm/yr as measured from a vast array of tide gauges worldwide, we get the sense that this is puny in comparison to the changes the earth experienced over the Holocene (the past 10,000 years).

Sea levels were higher than today when CO2 was much lower

Also read here how 75 recent scientific publications show sea levels were 2 meters higher than they are today, even though CO2 in the atmosphere was much less at 265 ppm.

In The Arctic, AMO/NAO ‘Predominantly Force Ocean Temperatures’ And ‘Cause Major Melting Events’

6 New Papers Link Arctic/North Atlantic

Climate Changes To Natural Factors

1. Natural variability/NAO/AMO “predominantly force ocean temperatures” and Greenland ice sheet melt 

Hahn et al., 2018
“North Atlantic Natural Variability Modulates Emergence of Widespread Greenland Melt in a Warming Climate … Using reanalysis data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation consistently promote heightened summer melt under various forcing conditions. Moreover, timing of widespread 21st century Greenland melt varies considerably between ensemble members due to different phasing of these modes of natural variability. These results indicate the importance of natural modes of variability across a range of external forcing conditions for interannual melt variability and the emergence of widespread Greenland melt. … North Atlantic warming in high melt years is driven by the negative NAO rather than the AMO (Hurrell & Deser, 2010). Downward (upward) turbulent heat flux anomalies over warmer (colder) ocean regions during high melt seasons further suggest that NAO-related wind and heat fluxes predominantly force ocean temperatures.”

(press release)
“The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, found that when the NAO stays in its negative phase (meaning that air pressure is high over Greenland) it can trigger extreme ice melt in Greenland during the summer seasonLikewise, the AMO, which alters sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, can cause major melting events when it is in its warm phase, raising the temperature of the region as a whole.”

2. Arctic sea ice and surface cooling/warming attributed to variations in the AMO

Li et al., 2018

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/97. … We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC [Atlantic sector of the Arctic sea ice cover] decline and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.”

Drinkwater et al., 2018

Following rapid cooling in the 1960s, much of the North Atlantic Ocean was characterized by a cold period during the 1970s and 1980s. This cold period was part of the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO, which has a period of ∼60–80 years. During this cold period, below average air and sea temperatures predominated, increased ice cover was observed in those northern regions with seasonal sea ice, and evidence was found of reduced Atlantic inflow into the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. The ecological responses included a reduction in primary production and geographic shifts in zooplankton species. Also, there was a general southward expansion of arctic and boreal fish species and a retreat of the temperate species. Major fish stocks such as Atlantic cod off Greenland and Labrador/northern Newfoundland, as well as the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, collapsed commercially. These collapses were partly driven by climate-induced declines in growth rates and recruitment survival, as well as fishing. In contrast, in the more southern range of Atlantic cod, such as the North Sea, the opposite response occurred as the cool conditions led to improved growth rates and higher abundance. Long-term measurements in the English Channel documented the replacement of several warm-water species with more northern cold-water species. Benthic and nearshore species also underwent distributional shifts and changing abundances. Comparisons with the responses to the warm periods suggest that following the cold period of the 1970s and 1980s, the ecosystem in the 1990s and 2000s returned to conditions akin to what they were in the previous warm period of the 1930s–1950s. However, there were some notable exceptions, such as the continued low abundance of Atlantic cod off West Greenland and Labrador/northern Newfoundland.”

3. Arctic radiation budget “governed” by cloud cover changes

Perovich, 2018

The surface radiation budget of the Arctic Ocean plays a central role in summer ice melt and is governed by clouds and surface albedo. … Longwave and shortwave radiation are primary drivers in the surface heat budget during summer melt (Persson et al., 2002). The surface radiative balance consists of contributions from incoming shortwave radiation, reflected shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and outgoing longwave radiation. Clouds have a major impact on both incoming longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes. … Future impacts on net radiative balances will depend on both ice and cloud conditions. As the sea ice cover evolves towards more first year ice, greater melt pond coverage, and more open water, the area-averaged albedo will be less than the break-even albedo for much of the summer. This implies less melting under cloudy conditions than sunny. However, the net radiative balance will still likely be less under sunny skies at the beginning of the melt season in May and early June.”

4. Surface wind speeds “closely associated” with Arctic sea ice reduction during 1979-2009

Zhang et al., 2018

“[W]e conducted a statistical analysis to examine overall relationships between surface winds, SST [sea surface temperature], and sea ice in the CBS [Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Arctic Ocean], using the newly developed CBHAR data set. The result shows a significant negative correlation between the surface winds and SIC [sea ice concentration], further confirming that increased wind speeds are closely associated with the reduction in SIC [sea ice concentration] (Stegall and Zhang 2012) […] during September and October from 1979−2009. …  A scatter plot of mean SIC [sea ice concentration] and wind speed anomalies, as well as the variation in wind speed anomalies […] demonstrat[e] a clear inverse linear relationship between surface wind speed and SIC [sea ice concentration] anomalies, with a correlation coefficient of −0.94 at a 99% level of significance using the t-test (Snedecor and Cochran 1989). This statistically suggests that surface wind speeds generally increase as SIC [sea ice concentration] decreases. … Taken together, the negative correlation between winds and SST [sea surface temperatures] over the OW and LIC areas can be attributed to reduced shortwave radiation due to increased cloudiness, increased upward sensible and latent heat fluxes, and strong cold advection from sea ice towards the north when strong winds are present, or vice versa when weak winds occur.”  

[Neither CO2 concentration or anthropogenic forcing is mentioned anywhere in the paper as radiative factors affecting sea surface temperatures or sea ice concentrations during 1979-2009.]

5. Volcanic activity “appear to underpin” sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic

Birkel et al., 2018

We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa María, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record.”

Environmental “Time Bomb”…China To Dump 20 Million Tonnes Of Solar Panel Waste Into Environment

We have to face it: The West has done our planet no favor by moving industrial production and manufacturing to China. Trump is right, many of factories and industries are better back home, even if it means paying a bit more for products.

Not only does the China use the oceans as a global dump for much of its plastic trash, the country now is gearing up to turn parts of the planet into a toxic solar panel waste dump.

According to French science magazine Futura here, we are looking at a “solar panel time bomb”.

Futura describes how China is installing “gigantic” solar panel farms in remote places like Tibet and how 30 years from now the country will have “mountains of solar panels reaching their end of their lives and that nothing is planned for their collection and recycling.”

20 million TONNES of solar panel waste

According to Futura, China met its 2020 solar energy installation target three years in advance and that its capacity will grown tenfold by 2040 – growing from 77 GW of installed rated capacity to 738 GW. This all means that China ultimately will pile up to 20 million tonnes of waste by 2050, which will be more than the United States, Japan and Germany combined.

Futura quotes Tian Min, a director of a Chinese company which collects used panels.

Our solar industry is a real time bomb.”

While Europe has already regulations in place for handling solar panels at the end of their lifetimes, China so far has no plan whatsoever in place to handle scrap panel problem, Futura reports.

Most manufacturers focus on developing better panels and do not care about the fate of their products.”

Futura also reports on the material composition of solar panels and notes that they contain toxic substances such as bromine, cadmium and lead, which are “difficult to separate and eliminate.”

“Their treatment requires an expensive process and the use of polluting chemicals.”

That’s the how Europe sees it. But for China, such annoyances such as toxic materials simply get ignored and are merely discarded into the landscape or oceans.

And because China’s gigantic solar installations are often located in very poor and remote areas, such as the Tengger Desert, Tibet or Inner Mongolia, it’s unlikely they will be transported to the few recycling plants in the industrial provinces of the Pacific coast. It’s imply not economical.

Futura reports that once panels near the end of their lifetime, one idea is to send the old Chinese panels to Middle East regions, where ultimately they will be simply discarded and end up littering and poisoning the entire landscape.

Some Scientists Call Prof. Schellnhuber’s Claim Man Is Preventing Next Ice Age “Huge Nonsense”

In an interview with the online German Augsburger Allgemeine (AA), former director of the the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, made some claims that have raised some eyebrows.

Image right: Prof Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, Source: PIK

What follows is a commentary from two German scientists:
=======================================

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Huge nonsense in the German Augsburger Allgemeinen on August 19, 2018:

Climate scientist Schellnhuber: “There will never be another ice age”

[…]

AA: Two weeks ago, an international study was published in which you too were involved. There was talk of a hot period. Sounds dramatic…

Schellnhuber: And it is. On Earth, ice ages and warm periods have alternated for millions of years. We have shown in studies that the industrial society, with its historic greenhouse gas emissions, has already interrupted this cycle and there will probably never be another ice age. So my colleagues and I brought up the question: Can our climate system be stabilized in the currently prevailing warm period state, or are we putting planetary processes in motion that are driving us into a hot period? The difference is, roughly speaking, the continued existence of civilization as we know it. With a long-term increase in temperature of five or six degrees and a sea level of around 60 meters, it will not be possible maintain it.”

Schellnhuber confuses CO2 cycles with ice age cycles

Professor Schellnhuber is a real joker. Glacials and interglacials occur on timescales of tens of thousands of years. However, the duration of CO2 staying time in the atmosphere is only 100 years. After a few hundred years at the latest, the CO2 would return to pre-industrial levels. Hasn’t anyone ever made this clear to Prof. Schellnhuber? Since nobody will ever experience the scenario, he can go on making outlandish claims about the far off future.

Also for a good laugh, read our post: PIK warning of the next ice age never appearing. Mojib Latif cool: “CO2 istays in the atmosphere for 100 years”

More on Schellnhuber: Peer review system in need of an overhaul: Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber chooses his own reviewers

Norwegian Risk Management Company Says Globe Will Fall Way Short Of 2050 Green Energy Targets by 2050

Renewable energy proponents claim that the planet must reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 in order to avert excessive global warming.

However, global quality assurance and risk management company Norwegian DNV GL writes in a recent report that although the money spent on renewables is set to triple by 2050 and fossil fuel spending will drop by around a third, “renewables and fossil fuels to equally share supply by mid-century.”

Half of world’s energy will be supplied by fossil fuels in 2050

This means that at least half of the world’s energy supply will still be provided fossil fuels by 2050, and not 80% by renewables.

According to the DNV GL, coal has peaked, oil will peak in 2023 and natural gas will become largest single source from 2026.

The DNV GL also writes energy demand will start to drop by 2035. It also expects that a rapid electrification of the energy system will deliver efficiency gains that will outpace GDP and population growth.

The green energy promoting DNV GL admits that the Co2 and fossil fuel reductions targets will not be met:

Fossil fuels will play an important if reduced role in our energy future with its share of the energy mix set to drop from around 80% today to 50% by the middle of the century, with the other half provided by renewables.”

Only 28% from wind and sun in 2050

It adds:

Natural gas will become the single largest source in 2026 and it will meet 25% of the world’s energy needs by 2050.  Oil will peak in 2023 and coal has already peaked.  Solar PV (16% of world energy supply) and wind (12%) will grow to become the most significant players amongst the renewable sources with both set to meet the majority of new electricity demand.”

That’s a far cry from where climate experts say we will need to be.

DNV GL takes an especially optimistic view of the electrification of society, especially the automotive industry in Europe by 2027. It believes “half of new cars sold in Europe will be battery powered and the same will be true five years later in China, India and North America.  This will contribute to an overall reduction in the transport sector’s share of global energy demand from 27% to 20% by 2050.”

“No silver bullet”

It adds: “There is no silver bullet and energy efficiency, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) must all be ramped up to combat climate change.

The reality is that in some countries renewables are being ramped down.

DNV GL serves both the renewables and oil & gas industries and the Energy Transition Outlook has become a leading impartial voice on the energy future.

New Paper: The GCR-Cloud Link To Solar-Driven Climate Change Persists Despite The Post-2000 ‘Violation’

The strong correlation between Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and cloud formation has for decades been postulated as a primary mechanism  for solar-driven natural climate change. Concisely, “When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up” (Svensmark et al., 2017).  Since about 2000, however, this GCR-cloud correlation has been violated (solar activity has declined without accompanying GCR flux), leading many to question the link. A new paper suggests this post-2000 “violation” is actually “not…unexpected”, has occurred previously, and does not undermine the Sun-GCR/cloud explanation for naturally-driven climate change.  


Veretenenko et al., 2018

Galactic Cosmic Rays and Low Clouds:
Possible Reasons for Correlation Reversal

“Indeed, cloudiness changes can strongly modulate fluxes of both incoming short-wave solar radiation and outgoing long-wave radiation of the Earth and the atmosphere and, thus, influence significantly the radiative-thermal balance of the atmosphere. High-level clouds contribute to the warming of the atmosphere, whereas low-level clouds contribute, as a rule, to its cooling. A net influx of radiation coming to the Earth’s surface under cloudy conditions depends on latitude, season and underlying surface. According to the data obtained from spaceborne experiments [Nimbus 7 Earth Radiation Budget experiment (N7ERB) and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)], when averaged over the globe, cloudiness reduces the input of solar radiation by 44.5–54.3 W·m−2 (depending on the season) and the emission of long-wave radiation to space by 23.6–34.7 W·m−2 [1, 2]. As a result, cloudiness decreases the global radiative heating of the atmosphere by 17.3–26.8 W·m−2.”

Influence of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on cloud formation is suggested to be an important part of the mechanism of solar activity influence on weather and climate. A high positive correlation between low cloud amount and GCR fluxes was observed in the 1980s–1990s; however, in the early 2000s, it was violated. In this work, we consider a nature of long-term correlation links between cloud cover at middle latitudes and GCRs, as well as possible reasons for this correlation reversal. It was shown that the GCR-cloud links observed on the decadal time scale are indirect and caused by GCR effects on cyclonic activity which depend on epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The reversal of GCR-cloud correlation in the 2000s seems to be due to a sharp weakening of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices, which results in the change of the troposphere-stratosphere coupling and, then, of GCR contribution to the development of extratropical cyclogenesis.”

“Correlation links observed between lower atmosphere characteristics and phenomena related to solar activity may weaken, disappear and even change sign depending on time period. So, a violation of the cloud-GCR link in the 2000s is not an extraordinary event. Herman and Goldberg [56] suggested that a reason for temporal variability of solar-atmospheric links may be long-term processes of the Sun which do not influence sunspot numbers and/or some changes of atmospheric conditions. Veretenenko and Ogurtsov [42, 43] showed that temporal behavior of correlation links between surface pressure at extratropical latitudes and sunspot numbers is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity caused by changes in the epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The reversals of the correlation signs were found in the end of the nineteenth century, in the early 1920s, the 1950s and the early 1980s coinciding with climatic regime shifts at middle latitudes [57], as well as with the transitions between cold and warm epochs in the Arctic [58]. So, a violation of the cloud-GCR link in the 2000s seems not to be unexpected and may be associated with the next change of the circulation epochs resulting in the change of GCR contribution to extratropical cyclonic activity and, then, to cloud field formation.”

Image Source: Veretenenko et al., 2018

Cloud Radiative Forcing Can Explain 1980s-2000s Warming 

Cloud cover changes dominate in altering the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface (Stanhill et al., 2014; Mateos et al., 2014).

With fewer clouds, more solar radiation can be absorbed by the oceans rather than reflected back to space; this, in turn, leads to warming.

Image Source: Sciencedaily.com and Climate4you.com

Cloud cover changes and the concomitant alteration of surface solar heat absorption can therefore explain the 1980s to 2000s warming via the increase in absorbed solar radiation (Pinker et al., 2005Pallé et al., 2004Herman et al., 2013Wang et al., 2012Calbó et al., 2016Kauppinen et al, 2014McLean, 2014).

The GCR-Cloud “Missing Link” To Climate Change “Breakthrough”

There has recently been a scientific “breakthrough” in understanding the “missing link” between the Sun’s modulation of cosmic rays and thus cloud cover, supported by real-world observational evidence (3,100 hours of data sampling and controlled experimentation).

The following is an abbreviated list of 14 scientific papers supporting the Sunspot Activity→Cosmic Ray Flux→Cloud Cover Changes→Climate Changes conceptualization published within the last year.


Sciencedaily press release for Svensmark et al., 2017

The missing link between exploding stars, clouds, and climate on Earth

“Breakthrough in understanding of how cosmic rays from supernovae can influence Earth’s cloud cover and thereby climate”
“The new results reveal, both theoretically and experimentally, how interactions between ions and aerosols can accelerate the growth by adding material to the small aerosols and thereby help them survive to become cloud condensation nuclei. It gives a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that Solar activity plays a role in variations in Earth’s climate. For example, the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000 AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age 1300-1900 AD both fits with changes in Solar activity.”
“‘Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle explaining how particles from space affect climate on Earth. It gives an understanding of how changes caused by Solar activity or by super nova activity can change climate.’ says Henrik Svensmark, from DTU Space at the Technical University of Denmark, lead author of the study.
“Data was taken over a period of 2 years with total 3100 hours of data sampling. The results of the experiments agreed with the theoretical predictions.”
• Low clouds made with liquid water droplets cool the Earth’s surface.
Variations in the Sun’s magnetic activity alter the influx of cosmic rays to the Earth.
•When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds, and the world is cooler.
When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up.
The implications of the study suggests that the mechanism can have affected:
• The climate changes observed during the 20th century
The coolings and warmings of around 2°C that have occurred repeatedly over the past 10,000 years, as the Sun’s activity and the cosmic ray influx have varied.
• The much larger variations of up to 10°C occuring as the Sun and Earth travel through the Galaxy visiting regions with varying numbers of exploding stars.

Govil et al., 2018

“The spectral analysis of the sedimentological parameters reveals the significant periodicities (>95% significance) centering at ∼1067, ∼907, and ∼824 years. The long-term trends in the data suggest the possible fluctuation of Antarctic ice-sheet superimposed on global climatic fluctuations due to solar activity.  … The curiosity of climate scientists arises on the mechanism of reaction of the climate system in response to the changes in solar forcing. There are two possible mechanisms proposed which work through the atmospheric processes. The first mechanism includes the action of the ozone layer by increasing more UV radiations with increased solar activity. It must have raised the temperature in the stratosphere which produces stronger winds in lower stratosphere and troposphere. These strong winds in the troposphere result in the relocation of pressure cells and storm tracks which ultimately disturbs the climate system (Schindell et al., 1999; Crosta et al., 2007). The second proposed mechanism considers the cosmic rays and cloud cover responsible for amplifying the climate forcing (Svensmark, 2000).”
High solar activity is believed to be responsible for less cooling of the lower atmosphere due to reduced cloud cover (Marsh and Svensmar, 2000). Conversely, low solar activity is believed to provide additional cooling of the lower atmosphere. These two feedback mechanisms responsible for the climatic forcing due to solar activity may work alone or in conjugation and are also superposed to other climate forcing as well as variability of internal cycling (Rind, 2002). Further, the periodic increase in solar activity results in increased temperature in the lower atmosphere which causes melting of ice-sheets in the Antarctic region. It may further provide the periodicity in freshwater discharge in the Schirmacher lakes and hence regulates the depositional environment of the studies lake.”

Fleming, 2018

“The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … There is no correlation of CO2 with temperature in any historical data set that was reviewed. The climate-change cooling over the 1940–1975 time period of the Modern Warming period was shown to be influenced by a combination of solar factors. The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connection.  When the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms. Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools.”
“Nevertheless, these results over this long period strongly suggest that the solar magnetic feld/cosmic ray interaction is the primary cause of major climate-change events over the past 9400 years of the interglacial period. The 35-year cool period within the current Modern Warming was an example where the Gleissberg cycle imposed only a modest impact on the existing strength of the magnetic feld that was in place. The current Modern Warming will continue until the strength of the Sun’s magnetic field declines.”


Utomo, 2017

“A similar result was also found for the relationship between solar activity and cosmic ray flux with a negative correlation, i.e. 0.69/year. When solar activities decrease, the clouds cover rate increase due-0.61/month and – to secondary ions produced by cosmic rays. The increase in the cloud cover rate causes the decrease in solar constant value and solar radiation on the earth’s surface. … The increase in the formation rate of cloud would affect the decrease in the intensity of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. The relationship between cosmic rays and solar constant is an “opposite” relationship because of the negative correlation type (r < 0). The phenomenon of “opposite” is in a good agreement with the result by Svensmark (1997) who found a correlation between temperature and global cloud coverage with the cosmic rays… [T]he climate also depends on variations in the flux of solar energy received by the earth’s surface. Variation in the solar energy flux is caused by variations in solar activity cycle. Thus the climate is a manifestation of how solar radiation is absorbed, redistributed by the atmosphere, land and oceans, and ultimately radiated back into space. Every variation of solar energy received at the earth’s surface and reradiated by the earth into space will have a direct impact on climate change on Earth.”


Tomicic et al., 2018

Secondary aerosol particles, which are formed by nucleation processes in the atmosphere, play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the Earth’s climate system. They affect the Earth’s radiation balance by scattering solar radiation back to space and can also act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thereby affect the amount of cloud and its radiative properties. Clouds have a net cooling effect on the Earth’s radiation budget of about −27.7 W m−2 (Hartmann, 1993). Thus, a small change in cloud properties can have significant effect on the climate system. Results by Merikanto et al. (2009) and Yu and Luo (2009) have shown that a significant fraction (ranging between 31 and 70 %) of cloud-forming aerosol particles in the atmosphere are secondary particles that originate from nucleation. Therefore, understanding nucleation is crucial in order to fully understand the atmospheric and climatic effects of aerosols.”

Kitaba et al., 2017   

The weakening of the geomagnetic field causes an increase in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. Some researchers argue that enhanced GCR flux might lead to a climatic cooling by increasing low cloud formation, which enhances albedo (umbrella effect). Recent studies have reported geological evidence for a link between weakened geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. … Greater terrestrial cooling indicates that a reduction of insolation [solar radiation reaching the surface] is playing a key role in the link between the weakening of the geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. The most likely candidate for the mechanism seems to be the increased albedo of the umbrella effect.”

Frigo et al., 2018

“In this work, we investigate the relationship between the 11-year and 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs [galactic cosmic rays] and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26◦ S but at different longitudes. …  Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR [Torres, Brazil] via a nonlinear mechanism … The obtained results offer indirect mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. The contribution of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded.”

Biktash, 2017

“The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19–23 [1954-2008] were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI [total solar irradiance] and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. … Recent studies by Pudovkin and Raspopov, Tinsley, and Swensmark have shown that the Earth’s cloud coverage is strongly influenced by cosmic ray intensity. Conditions in interplanetary space, which can influence GCRs and climate change, have been studied in numerous works. As has been demonstrated by Biktash, the long-term CR count rate and global temperature variations in 20–23 solar cycles are modulated by solar activity and by the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field). A possible geophysical factor which is able to affect the influence of solar activity on the Earth’s climate is volcanism. The effects of volcanism can lead to serious consequences in the atmosphere and the climate.”

Wilson and Sidorenkov, 2018

“The fact that the periods of eight out of nine of the most prominent peaks in the lunar alignment spectrum (highlighted column 3 of Table 2) closely match those in the spectra of ϕm [solar modulation potentional]  and Tm [maximum daily temperature], strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are closely related to one another. … principal component analyses of the 10Be and 14C records show that, on multi-decadal to centennial time scales, the radionuclide production signal accounts for 76% of the total variance in the data [18,19]. This would imply that there is a causal link between Tm [maximum daily temperature] and near-Earth GCR flux, with a factor related to the latter driving the former.  … An implicit assumption that is used by those who reject GCR [galactic cosmic rays]-cloud models is that the GCR flux hitting the Earth needs to produce changes in the total amount of cloud cover over the majority of the globe in order to significantly affect the world mean temperature. However, this assumption ignores the possibility that regional changes in the amount of cloud cover could influence the rate at which the Earth’s climate system warms or cools. Of course, for this to be true there would have to be observational evidence that shows that the GCR flux can affect the level of cloud cover on a regional scale. Support for this hypothesis is provided [23] who claim that existing multi-decadal ground-based datasets for clouds show that there is a weak but significant correlation between the amounts of regional cloud cover and the overall level of GCR fluxes. In addition, Larken et al. [2010] find that there is a strong and robust positive correlation between statistically significant variations in the short-term (daily) GCR ray flux and the most rapid decreases in cloud cover over the mid-latitudes (30° – 60° N/S). Moreover, Larken et al. [2010] find that there is a direct causal link between the observed cloud changes and changes in the sea level atmospheric temperature, over similar time periods.”Hence, the solar connection between Tm and ϕm can be summarized using a heuristic luni-solar model like that shown in Figure 6. Firstly, the model proposes that there must be some, as yet, unknown factor associated with the level of solar activity on the Sun (e.g. possibly the overall level GCR hitting the Earth) that is producing long-term systematic changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover. Secondly, the model proposes that the resulting changes in regional cloud cover lead to variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles which, in turn, result in changes to the peak strength of the zonal tropical winds. Thirdly, the model further proposes that it is the long-term changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover, combined with the variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles that lead to the long-term changes in the poleward energy and momentum flux. And finally, the model proposes that it is this flux which governs the rate at which the Earth warms and cools, and hence, determines the long-term changes in the world mean temperature.”

Vieira et al., 2018

“Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are the main source of ionizing radiation in the lower troposphere, in which secondary products can penetrate the ground and underground layers. GCRs affect the physical–chemical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere, as well as the biosphere. GCRs are modulated by solar activity and latitudinal geomagnetic field distribution.”

Tyasto et al., 2018

“Variations of charged particles of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which are caused by variations in the Earth’s magnetic field, are one of most significant among the variety of phenomena that influence the near-Earth medium and, consequently, the Earth’s climate and weather. Being the main sources of atmospheric ionization, they influence the atmosphere transparency and play the key role in formation of clouds, thunderstorms, and lightnings (Dorman, 2009).”

Luthardt and Rößler, 2017

“The 11 yr solar cycle, also known as Schwabe cycle, represents the smallest-scaled solar cyclicity and is traced back to sunspot activity (Douglass, 1928; Lean, 2000), which has a measurable effect on the Earth’s climate, as indicated by the Maunder minimum (Usoskin et al., 2015). Global climate feedback reactions to solar irradiance variations caused by sunspots are complex and hypothesized to be triggered by (1) variation in total energy input (Cubasch and Voss, 2000), (2) the influence of ultraviolet light intensity variation on composition of the stratosphere (Lean and Rind, 2001), (3) the effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation (Marsh and Svensmark, 2000; Sun and Bradley, 2002), and/or (4) the effect of high-energy particles on the strato- and mesosphere (Jackman et al., 2005). …  [L]ike today, sunspot activity caused fluctuations of cosmic radiation input to the atmosphere, affecting cloud formation and annual rates of precipitation.”

Palcsu et al., 2018

The relationship between the atmospheric concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, the change of solar activity and hence secondary neutron flux has already been proven. The temporal atmospheric variation of the most studied cosmogenic isotopes shows a significant anti-correlation with solar cycles. However, since artificial tritium input to the atmosphere due to nuclear-weapon tests masked the expected variations of tritium production rate by three orders of magnitude, the natural variation of tritium in meteoric precipitation has not previously been detected. For the first time, we provide clear evidence of the positive correlation between the tritium concentration of meteoric precipitation and neutron flux modulated by solar magnetic activity. We found trends in tritium time series for numerous locations worldwide which are similar to the variation of secondary neutron flux and sun spot numbers. This variability appears to have similar periodicities to that of solar cycle. Frequency analysis, cross correlation analysis, continuous and cross wavelet analysis provide mathematical evidence that the correlation between solar cycle and meteoric tritium does exist. Our results demonstrate that the response of tritium variation in precipitation to the solar cycle can be used to help us understand its role in the water cycle.”

Padovani et al., 2018

“The presence of small amounts of atomic hydrogen, detected as absorption dips in the 21 cm line spectrum, is a well-known characteristic of dark clouds. The abundance of hydrogen atoms measured in the densest regions of molecular clouds can be only explained by the dissociation of H2 due to cosmic rays. … Our findings show that a careful description of molecular hydrogen dissociation by cosmic rays can explain the abundance of atomic hydrogen in dark clouds. An accurate characterisation of this process at high densities is crucial for understanding the chemical evolution of star-forming regions.”

PhD Physicist Says Evidence Of Major Human Role In Climate “Is Lacking” …Sees “Abuses Of Science”

PhD physicist Ralph B. Alexander has authored a new book: Science Under Attack: The Age of Unreason.

What follows is a taste of what readers can expect from the book. Ideal present for the upcoming Christmas season.
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Evidence Lacking for Major Human Role in Climate Change

By Ralph B. Alexander

Conventional scientific wisdom holds that global warming and consequent changes in the climate are primarily our own doing. But what few people realize is that the actual scientific evidence for a substantial human contribution to climate change is flimsy. It requires highly questionable computer climate models to make the connection between global warming and human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).

No proof warming is human caused

The multiple lines of evidence which do exist are simply evidence that the world is warming, not proof that the warming comes predominantly from human activity. The supposed proof relies entirely on computer models that attempt to simulate the earth’s highly complex climate and include greenhouse gases as well as aerosols from both volcanic and man-made sources – but almost totally ignore natural variability.

Models way off mark

So it shouldn’t be surprising that the models have a dismal track record in predicting the future. Most spectacularly, the models failed to predict the recent pause or hiatus in global warming from the late 1990s to about 2014. During this period, the warming rate dropped to only a third to a half of the rate measured from the early 1970s to 1998, while at the same time CO2 kept spewing into the atmosphere. Out of 32 climate models, only a lone Russian model came anywhere close to the actual observations.

Blog1 image JPG.jpg

Not only did the models overestimate the warming rate by two or three times, they wrongly predict a hot spot in the upper atmosphere that isn’t there, and are unable to accurately reproduce sea level rise.

Yet it’s these same failed models that underpin the whole case for catastrophic consequences of man-made climate change, a case embodied in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions – which 195 nations, together with many of the world’s scientific societies and national academies, have signed on to – is based not on empirical evidence, but on artificial computer models. Only the models link climate change to human activity. The empirical evidence does not.

Correlation is not causation

Proponents of human-caused global warming, including a majority of climate scientists, insist that the boost to global temperatures of about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since 1850 comes almost exclusively from the steady increase in the atmospheric CO2 level. They argue that elevated CO2 must be the cause of nearly all the warming because the sole major change in climate “forcing” over this period has been from CO2 produced by human activities – mainly the burning of fossil fuels as well as deforestation.

But correlation is not causation, as is well known from statistics or the public health field of epidemiology. So believers in the narrative of catastrophic anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change fall back on computer models to shore up their argument. With the climate change narrative trumpeted by political entities such as the UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and amplified by compliant media worldwide, predictions of computer climate models have acquired the status of quasi-religious edicts.

Warmists on the wrong side of science

Indeed, anyone disputing the conventional wisdom is labeled a “denier” by advocates of climate change orthodoxy, who claim that global warming skeptics are just as anti-science as those who believe vaccines cause autism. The much ballyhooed war on science typically lumps climate change skeptics together with creationists, anti-vaccinationists and anti-GMO activists. But the climate warmists are the ones on the wrong side of science.

“Fear, hyperbole, heavy-handed tactics”

Like their counterparts in the debate over the safety of GMOs, warmists employ fear, hyperbole and heavy-handed political tactics in an attempt to shut down debate. Yet skepticism about the human influence on global warming persists, and may even be growing among the general public. In 2018, a Gallup poll in the U.S. found that 36% of Americans don’t believe that global warming is caused by human activity, while a UK survey showed that a staggering 64% of the British public feel the same way. And the percentage of climate scientists who endorse the mainstream view of a strong human influence is nowhere near the widely believed 97%, although it’s probably above 50%.

Most scientists who are skeptics like me accept that global warming is real, but not that it’s entirely man-made or that it’s dangerous. The observations alone aren’t evidence for a major human role. Such lack of regard for the importance of empirical evidence, and misguided faith in the power of deficient computer climate models, are abuses of science.

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Ralph B. Alexander grew up in Perth, Western Australia, and received his PhD in physics from the University of Oxford 

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