Reports Of Arctic Ice Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated…Greenland Ice Mass Near Record

Polar snow and ice cover rarely cooperates, no matter what side of the warming issue you may be on. It changes so fast.

When ice cover climbs, skeptics like to claim that it shows global warming isn’t what it is often hyped up to be. And when ice cover drops to satellite era record lows, the alarmists start screaming and hollering, forgetting that low ice levels were not uncommon in the past 100 years. They freaked out just some months ago when the yearly autumn Arctic sea ice recovery faltered and fell to “record” lows. Immediately they began predicting near ice-free conditions for the coming summer.

Just as the weather does, polar ice and snow cover also acts unpredictably, and now just a few months later Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover is back within the normal range.

Winter snow and ice cover trend for the Northern Hemisphere has in fact been trending upwards since statistics started.

Source: Rutgers University

And when one applies the 30-year weather mean used to define climate, the winter trend since 1987 is strongly upwards. So is the autumn trend. This 2017 winter was well above average, ranking in the top 10.

Greenland snow and ice mass is currently also near record levels:

Source: DMI.

As meteorologist Joe Bastardi, said, it’s going to take a fair amount of warmth to make the added ice go away again. The following chart shows the changes since Sept. 1, 2016.

Source: DMI. “Map of the accumulated surface mass balance (in mm water equivalent) from September 1st to now.”

The vast majority area of Greenland has seen snow and ice gain over the past 9 months. Moreover, Arctic temperatures for now are below normal:

Source: DMI.

The big development in recent Arctic news is the “recovery” of Arctic sea ice extent, which now is back in the normal range. Quoting in part Mark Twain, reports of its death “have been greatly exaggerated”. Just months ago, alarmists were claiming an irreversible death spiral.

Source: DMI

Depending on Arctic weather conditions later this year, anything is possible as to what the Arctic does over the coming months. One thing is sure: It’s death has long been exaggerated.

 

New Paper: Geothermal Heat A Leading Driver Of Surface Temperatures

Heat Flux From Below Melts Ice Sheets, 

Drives Temperatures & CO2 Variations 

Image: Smellie, 2012                                                             Image: Newton, 2008

It has long been established in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that naturally-driven fluctuations in the Earth’s surface temperature preceded the rise and fall of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations for at least the last 800,000 years.

As oceans warm, they release more of their vast stores of CO2; as oceans cool, they retain more CO2.   During cold glacial periods, when ice sheets covered much of the Earth, atmospheric CO2 concentrations only hovered around 180 parts per million (ppm).  After surface temperatures naturally warmed up by multiple degrees C during interglacials, it took at least several hundred years before atmospheric CO2 concentrations began rising in response to the temperature rise.

This lag supports the conclusion that glacial-to-interglacial variations in CO2 concentrations may be driven by temperature changes, as the temperature change occurred well before the CO2 change did.


IPCC AR4 (2007): “Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature changes in Antarctica with a lag of some hundreds of years.”
Caillon et al., 2003     “The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”
Fischer et al., 1999    “High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations.”
Monnin et al., 2001     “The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years.”
Kawamura et al., 2007    “Our chronology also indirectly gives the timing of the CO2 rise at [glacial] terminations, which occurs within 1 kyr of the increase in Antarctic temperature.”
Indermuhle  et al., 2000    “The [CO2] lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a [CO2] lag of (1200 ± 700) yr.
Landais et al., 2013     “[F]rom 130.5 to 129,000 years ago, the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations lagged that of Antarctic temperature unequivocally….At mid-slope, there is an unequivocal lead of δ15N [temperature] over CO2 of 900 ± 325 yr”.
Schneider et al., 2013    “Furthermore, a  5,000 yr lag  in the CO2 decline relative to EDC [East Antarctica] temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS5.5 (120,000 yrs before present).”
Stott et al., 2007     “Deep-sea temperatures warmed by ∼2°C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical–surface-ocean warming by ∼1000 years.”

The occurrence of temperature change leading the CO2 concentration growth rate change may also occur in the modern era.

Flohn, 1982    “Comparative investigations (Keeling and Bacastow 1977, Newll et al. 1978, Angell 1981) found a positive correlation between the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 and the fluctuations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific, which are caused by rather abrupt changes between upwelling cool water and downwelling warm water (“El Niño“) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. … A crude estimate of these differences is demonstrated by the fact that during the period 1958-1974, the average CO2-increase within five selective years with prevailing cool water only 0.57 ppm/a [per year], while during five years with prevailing warm water it was 1.11 ppm/a.  Thus in a a warm water year, more than one Gt (1015 g) carbon is additionally injected into the atmosphere, in comparison to a cold water year.”
Jones and Cox, 2005    “There is clear similarity between Figures 1b and 1c, with the positive CO2 growth rate anomalies corresponding to El Niño [warming] events, and the negative growth rate anomalies corresponding to La Niña [cooling] events. … It is unlikely that these anomalies can be explained by an abrupt increase in anthropogenic emissions, as the anomalies are much larger than annual increases in fossil fuel emissions.  Most interannual variability in the CO2 growth rate is attributable to variations in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange with climate (e.g., associated with ENSO or volcanic perturbations)”

Geothermal Heat Flux Leads Temperature, CO2 Rise By 1000s Of Years


It has recently been suggested that there is a “detection of Milankovitch [millennial-scale climate changes linked to the Earth’s orbit] frequencies in global volcanic activity” (Kutterolf et al., 2012), or that variations in geothermal or volcanic activity are not random, but function within short- and long-term cycles and periodicities that could be linked to the Sun-Earth connection itself.

Tolstoy, 2015   “Pulsing of seafloor volcanic activity may feed back into climate cycles, possibly contributing to glacial/interglacial cycles, the abrupt end of ice ages, and dominance of the 100 kyr cycle.”

With this in mind, it should not be particularly surprising that Russian geophysicists Demezhko and Gomostaeva (2015) recently found the geothermal heat flux from below the Earth’s surface may have risen 2 to 3 thousand years before the surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations began rising.

Demezhko and Gornostaeva, 2015    “Despite the substantial dispersion of CO2 estimations, a character and a chronology of CO2 concentration changes are much closer to temperature changes rather than to heat flux variations. It may mean no significant contribution of CO2 forcing to climatically caused heat flux and thus to the temperature increase during Pleistocene–Holocene warming.”
[T]he increase of carbon dioxide may be a consequence of temperature increasing. Comparing the chronology of surface flux, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration changes, we can draw some conclusions about the causes of climate change. … The increase of carbon dioxide concentrations occurred 2–3 thousands of years later than the heat flux increase and synchronously with temperature response.”

Therefore, the order for net heat energy changes in the Earth system may be this: First, there is (a) a change (increase) in the heat flux from beneath the Earth’s surface (with an ostensible connection to solar-orbital changes), (b) the Earth’s surface temperature rises, and (c) CO2 concentrations rise.


New Paper: Geothermal Data Affirms Heat Flux Leads Surface Temperature


A new paper from Demezhko, Gornostaeva, and two other colleagues again provides further evidence that heat flux leads surface temperature change by about 1000 to 2000 years, and that this sequencing therefore “does not depend on climate change”.

Temperature and heat flux changes at the base of 

Laurentide ice sheet inferred from geothermal data

Demezhko et al., 2017

“Recently, geothermal data have been used to estimate transient climatically caused surface heat flux (SHF) changes (Beltrami et  al. 2000, 2002; Beltrami 2001; Demezhko et  al. 2013; Volobuev 2013; Demezhko and Gornostaeva 2015). This heat flux has been introduced as a useful new paleoclimate characteristic. It should be distinguished from the steady-state background heat flow. The latter is attributed to the Earth’s internal heat sources and does not depend on climate change. Both these fluxes are independent components of the ground surface heat balance. … GST [ground surface temperature] and SHF [surface heat flux] histories differ substantially in shape and chronology.  [Subsurface] Heat flux changes ahead of temperature changes by 500–1000 years.”
“Geothermal reconstructions spanning tens of thousands of years are of special importance for understanding the climate history of the Earth. During this period (15–10-ka BP) the last glacial period of pleistocene (Wisconsinan in central North America, Weichselian or Vistulian in Northern Europe, Valdai in Eastern Europe, Zyryanka and Sartan in Siberia) ended and the current Holocene interglacial began.”
“More recently, Demezhko et  al. (2013) and Demezhko and Gornostaeva (2015) reconstructed long-term surface heat flux histories near Lake Onega in Karelia and in the Middle Urals, respectively. It was noted that the long-term heat flux changes differ considerably from the temperature changes. The temperature curve reveals a sharp rise in the early Holocene (12−10-ka BP) and a relatively stable warm climate of interglacial, while the heat flux began to increase about 2 ka [2000 years] earlier [13000 years ago vs. 11000 years ago for surface temperature], reached a maximum at the beginning of the Holocene, and then decreased.”

Figure 4d from the paper shows the trajectory of the reconstructed temperature changes from the site (Alberta, Canada) as determined by geothermal data.  Notice that modern temperatures are ~8°C cooler than they were about 4,500 years ago.

“These results (Fig.  4d) indicate an abrupt increase of summer (from May to August) temperatures between 12 and 10 ka BP, relative stabilization 10–7 ka BP, another increase after 7 ka BP, and rapid decline to modern values after 3  ka BP.”


Greenland Warms, Melts Significantly Due To Heat Flux From Below


Considering the magnitude of heat energy required to melt polar ice sheets from below, and that central Antarctica’s air temperatures average about -55°C year-round, it should not be surprising that a significant portion of the meltwater flow from both polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) is derived from “heat flow from the deep Earth”.

Rogozhina et al., 2016    “Ice-penetrating radar and ice core drilling have shown that large parts of the north-central Greenland ice sheet are melting from below. It has been argued that basal ice melt is due to the anomalously high geothermal flux that has also influenced the development of the longest ice stream in Greenland. Here we estimate the geothermal flux beneath the Greenland ice sheet and identify a 1,200-km-long and 400-km-wide geothermal anomaly beneath the thick ice cover. We suggest that this anomaly explains the observed melting of the ice sheet’s base, which drives the vigorous subglacial hydrology and controls the position of the head of the enigmatic 750-km-long northeastern Greenland ice stream.”
Petrunin et al., 2013    “Here we use a coupled ice–lithosphere model driven by climate and show that the oldest and thickest part of the Greenland Ice Sheet is strongly influenced by heat flow from the deep Earth. … Complex interactions between geothermal heat flow and glaciation-induced thermal perturbations in the upper crust over glacial cycles lead to strong regional variations in basal ice conditions, with areas of rapid basal melting adjoining areas of extremely cold basal ice.”
Fahnestock et al., 2001    High Geothermal Heat Flow, Basal Melt, and the Origin of Rapid Ice Flow in Central Greenland … “Age-depth relations from internal layering reveal a large region of rapid basal melting in Greenland. Melt is localized at the onset of rapid ice flow in the large ice stream that drains north off the summit dome and other areas in the northeast quadrant of the ice sheet. Locally, high melt rates indicate geothermal fluxes 15 to 30 times continental background. The southern limit of melt coincides with magnetic anomalies and topography that suggest a volcanic origin.”
van der Veen et al., 2007     “[T]here is a growing body of evidence suggesting more extensive basal melting in the central region of northern Greenland. … The basal melt rate at NGRIP reaches 7.5 mm ice per year, and the modeled geothermal heat flux is between 90 and 160 mW/m2 along the flow line originating 50 km upstream of the drill site (Dahl-Jensen et al., 2003).  Again, the origin of the large geothermal heat flux remains unidentified. Ice-penetrating radar profiles show bright bed reflections in many locations in northern Greenland, indicating the presence of lubricating meltwater at the glacier base.”
Lilja Buchardt and Dahl-Jensen, 2007     “From radio-echo sounding (RES) surveys and ice core data it can be seen that the ice sheet is melting at the base in a large area in Northern Greenland. The RES images reveal internal layers in the ice. The layers are former deposition surfaces and are thus isochrones. Undulations of the isochrones in regions where the base is smooth suggest that the basal melt rate changes over short distances. This indicates that the geothermal heat flux is very high and has large spatial variability in Northern Greenland. Combining the estimated basal melt rates with the observed borehole temperatures allows us to convert the basal melt rates to geothermal heat flow values. From the two-dimensional model we find the basal melt rate and geothermal heat flux at NorthGRIP to be 6.1 mm a−1 and 129 mW m−2, respectively.”
Dahl-Jensen et al., 2003    “From temperature measurements down through the 3001 m deep borehole at the North Greenland Icecore Project (NorthGRIP) drill site, it is now clear that the ice at the base, 3080 m below the surface, is at the pressure-melting point. This is supported by the measurements on the ice core where the annual-layer thicknesses show there is bottom melting at the site and upstream from the borehole. … The results show the geothermal heat flow varies from 50 to 200 mW m-2 along the 100 km section of the modeled flowline. The melt rate at the NorthGRIP site is 0.75 cm a-1, but the deep ice in the NorthGRIP core originated 50 km upstream and has experienced melt rates as high as 1.1 cm a-1.”

Antarctic Warms, Melts Significantly Due To Heat Flux From Below


Fisher et al., 2015    “We report the first direct measurement of geothermal heat flux into the base of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), below Subglacial Lake Whillans, determined from the thermal gradient and the thermal conductivity of sediment under the lake. The heat flux at this site is 285 ± 80 mW/m2, significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models. Independent temperature measurements in the ice indicate an upward heat flux through the WAIS of 105 ± 13 mW/m2. The difference between these heat flux values could contribute to basal melting and/or be advected from Subglacial Lake Whillans by flowing water. The high geothermal heat flux may help to explain why ice streams and subglacial lakes are so abundant and dynamic in this region.
Maule et al., 2005    “The geothermal heat flux is an important factor in the dynamics of ice sheets; it affects the occurrence of subglacial lakes, the onset of ice streams, and mass losses from the ice sheet base. Because direct heat flux measurements in ice-covered regions are difficult to obtain, we developed a method that uses satellite magnetic data to estimate the heat flux underneath the Antarctic ice sheet. We found that the heat flux underneath the [Antarctic] ice sheet varies from 40 to 185 megawatts per square meter and that areas of high heat flux coincide with known current volcanism and some areas known to have ice streams.”
Schroeder et al., 2014    “Heterogeneous geothermal flux and subglacial volcanism have the potential to modulate ice sheet behavior and stability by providing a large, variable supply of meltwater to the subglacial water system, lubricating and accelerating the overlying ice.  …  Thwaites Glacier is one of the largest, most rapidly changing glaciers on Earth, and its landward sloping bed reaches into the deep interior of the WAIS [West Antarctic Ice Sheet], making it a leading component in scenarios for rapid deglaciation. … [H]eterogeneous geothermal flux beneath Thwaites Glacier is likely a significant factor in local, regional, and continental-scale ice sheet stability.”
Corr and Vaughan, 2008    A recent volcanic eruption beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet “Indirect evidence suggests that volcanic activity occurring beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet influences ice flow and sheet stability. …  Ongoing volcanic heat production may have implications for contemporary ice dynamics in this glacial system.”
Vogel and Tulaczyk, 2006    Subglacial volcanism in West Antarctica may play a crucial role in the dynamics and stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Evidence supporting the existence of an individual subglacial volcanic center (Mt. Casertz) in the upper catchments of Whillans and Kamb Ice Stream (WIS and KIS), comes from a comparison of ice sheet modeling results with measured ice velocities. Lubrication [melting ice] of an area, which otherwise should be frozen to its bed, is best explained by basal melt water generated in the vicinity of Mt. Casertz.”
Blankenship et al., 1993    “Here we present aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism and associated elevated heat flow beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet near the critical region where ice streaming begins. If this heat flow is indeed controlling ice-stream formation, then penetration of ocean waters inland of the thin hot crust of the active portion of the West Antarctic rift system could lead to the disappearance of ice streams, and possibly trigger a collapse of the inland ice reservoir.”
Damiani et al., 2014    “One major contributor to fast glacial flow is the presence of subglacial water, the production of which is a result of both glaciological shear heating and geothermal heat flux. A zone of thinner crust is also identified near the area’s subaerial volcanoes lending support to a recent interpretation predicting that this part of Marie Byrd Land is a major volcanic dome, likely within the West Antarctic Rift System itself.  [W]e prefer the hypothesis that Marie Byrd Land volcanoes are thermally-supported by warmer upper mantle. The presence of such inferred warm upper mantle also suggests regionally elevated geothermal heat flux in this sector of the West Antarctic Rift System and consequently the potential for enhanced meltwater production beneath parts of Thwaites Glacier itself.”

Significance Of Geothermal Influence On Climate System ‘Unknown’


There is still much to learn about geothermal factors and their relation to the Earth’s climate system.  More than 70% the Earth’s volcanism occurs under the sea floor, unobserved, and there are more than 100,000 extinct and active locations beneath the ocean depths.

Considering how influential fluctuations heat flow from beneath the Earth may be in leading/determining surface temperatures, subglacial volcanism and ice sheet melt, carbon cycling, and climate change in general, it would probably be wise to continuing studying geothermal heat flux effects on the Earth system rather than declaring climate science already “settled“.

Kelley, 2017     Volcanology: Vulcan rule beneath the sea … “Over 70% of the volcanism on Earth occurs beneath an ocean veil. … Satellite data reveal more than 100,000 extinct and active seamounts that mark sites of past and present volcanic activity.  [O]bservations imply that submarine volcanoes may play an important role in cycling carbon and sulfur through the Earth, oceans and atmosphere.”
[T]he flux of volatiles from these systems remains poorly quantified and the significance of these volcanoes as part of the deep carbon and sulfur cycles on a global scale is unknown.”

‘Tagesspiegel’ Calls German Solar Energy Scheme An “Exemplary Initiative” On What “Not To Do”!

Germany’s rush into green energies is slowly and grudgingly being acknowledged by once steadfast proponents as a failure. Over time, even the most bitter of realities have to be accepted.

Germany’s online Tagesspiegel here recently presented a commentary on the collapse of the country’s largest solar components manufacturer, Solarworld, and what it really means.

First let’s note that the Tagesspiegel is based in Berlin, and is a center-left publication, and so what we have here is a grudging admission from a proponent that the pet green energy project is not what many would like us to believe it is.

Recently the top brass of Solarworld announced it would declare insolvency, and has since become “a case where we can learn a lot,” so says Tagesspiegel’s .

She writes: “It tells us the story of megalomania, ignorance, cockiness and blindness of the future” and that it is an example of “the state interfering with competition  – and distorting it” to the point where “companies are hampered and the power of innovation is weakened

Weidenfeld compares the German government’s forays into green energy to the refugee crisis, where good intentions ended up with disastrous results. On companies feeding at the subsidy trough, she writes:

Ultimately, they wind up resorting to tricks, then they disappear.”

Weidenfeld describes a Germany that was hell-bent on showing the world how things are supposed to get done, but in the end wound up as an embarrassing failure. Weidenfeld concludes on the massive solar subsidies:

The more that politics tries to shape entire [industry] branches, the faster they come to an end. It’s for sure: the German initiatives are exemplary for the world. Here we can learn what you don’t do.”

Trump may not be able to stop the mass green energy subsidy scheme Paris is demanding, but the natural laws of economics certainly will. The longer the scheme is propped up, the bigger the crash will be.

 

Alan Dershowitz Sees Civil Liberties Under Attack With Media-Political Mobbing Of Trump

Off-topic today. (Don’t worry, the climate isn’t going anywhere.)

Like many of us, I’m quite surprised by the absurd calls for impeachment of a President who has done nothing wrong. Just because he does things people don’t agree with and is sand in the Establishment machinery, this in no way constitutes grounds for impeachment. It’s a grand charade.

Will backfire on media-political mob

Don’t get discouraged by all the spectacular theatrics, as this can turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Newton’s Laws also often apply in politics: for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction. There’s a good chance this is all going to backfire, and possibly even on a nuclear scale. People don’t appreciate bureaucrats who abuse the justice system to go unfairly go after someone.

Alan Dershowitz: “like Stalinist Russia”

As the blatant non-objectivity and hatred becomes ever glaring, people are taking notice and seeing this for what it really is: a political lynching. One example is Harvard law Professor Alan Dershowitz, a left-wing Democrat and supporter of Hillary Clinton no less.

“What’s the crime?”

In an interview at FOX News, Dershowitz, one of the country’s top civil liberties lawyers, totally blasted the media-political mugging of President Trump, comparing it to “Stalinist Russia”, and demands to know: “What’s the crime?”

Political charade

The Harvard professor noted: “Nobody can point me to a statute that could be violated.” Moreover Dershowitz sees Trump possibly getting benefit from it all, and expresses full confidence in Mueller.

In fact, Dershowitz says the worst case scenario is Flynn getting indicted, refering to him as a low-level former aid. Dershowitz thinks in the end it’ll end up helping Trump. This is why Trump supporters, barring any surprises, can rest easy and relish at the prospect of the coming public backlash.

And even if Trump had coordinated with the Russians in the Wikileaks dump, that too would not be a crime, says Dershowitz. In fact the real issue is Clinton wrongdoings exposed by the Wikileaks.

German ARD public television: the world’s most Trump-hating

Interestingly in Germany, almost everyone believes Trump commited crimes, even though they don’t know what they are talking about. This is so because most Germans get their news filtered by the publicly funded media outlets, like ARD television. A recent report on mass negative reporting of Trump found that Germany’s flagship ARD public television took the top spot worldwide in negativity, with 98% of its reports being negative, RT here writes. (PS: RT is just the messenger here).

Most Germans I meet say they simply cannot understand how Americans could have elected Trump. And as long as they continue relying on outlets like ARD for information, they surely never will.

 

Germany’s Energiewende “An Economic, Social and Ecological Disaster”, Writes Top German Socialist!

In a referendum slated for this coming Sunday, Swiss citizens are being called to vote on a national energy strategy, dubbed Energiestrategie 2050.

Germany Green Party co-founder and former federal Homeland Minister Otto Georg Schily warns Swiss citizens voting on energy referendum that the Energiewende is “an economic, social and ecological disaster”. Photo by Olaf Kosinsky (2015), CC BY-SA 3.0 de.

Now it is reported that just days ago German Green Party co-founder (later turned socialist) and former German Homeland Minister Otto Schily has come out to warn Swiss citizens against voting yes on the project, reminding them that Germany’s Energiewende (transition to green energies) is not the success it is often claimed to be, and that it has in fact turned into a 25 billion euro a year disaster.

This is reported the online Swiss daily, Basler Zeitung here.

Schily held the top position in Germany’s Homeland Ministry in the country’s Socialist/Green coalition government led by Gerhard Schröder from 1998 to 2005. He is regarded as one of the country’s most respected elderly politicians and statesmen.

According to the Basler Zeitung, Schily wrote a letter to Christoph Blocher, where he judged the Energiewende to be an “economic, ecological and social disaster” and so urged Swiss citizens to vote no.

The rightwing Swiss SVP party, led by Blocher, is leading the campaign against the green energy transformation project put forth by Swiss President Doris Leuthard of the centrist Christian CVP party. Both Schily and Blocher were Homeland ministers at the same time in their respective countries in the 2000s and are reported to maintain light contact.

The online Swiss site BLICK characterized Schily’s letter as “explosive”.

The Basler Zeitung reports: “The costs of the Energiewende have grown to over 25 billion euros annually. As a result consumer electricity bills have risen year after year.”

Socially unjust

Schily wrote that Germany’s green energies are also “extremely socially unjust” because they force low income consumers to pay more money into the pockets of wealthy wind and solar park operators – in a classic redistribution from the bottom up.

Jobs-killer, done nothing for the climate

Moreover, the Basler Zeitung writes that the Energiewende has scarred Germany’s natural landscape, has probably cost more jobs than it created, and has “contributed nothing to climate policy as it hoped to do“. Schily advised Swiss citizens “not to repeat the far reaching energy policy of the German Energiewende“.

German CO2 emissions rising instead of falling

The Basler Zeitung also cites an “expert team” by McKinsey consulting group, which not long ago found that the German energy policy has fallen far short of its aims: “Emissions of climate-harmful carbon dioxide are not going down, but rather are increasing, as is power consumption even though it was supposed to go down because of efficiency measures.”

The Basler Zeitung adds: “a collapse of the power supply threatens when the remaining German nuclear power plants are taken offline over the coming years“.

 

Another New Paper Traces Variations In Temperatures, Precipitation To Variations In Solar Activity

Scientists Ascribe Climate Changes

To Solar Forcing – No CO2 Attribution



In recent months, there have been dozens of papers published in the scientific literature ascribing variations in temperature and precipitation (climate) to corresponding variations in solar forcing.

Another new paper, Zhang et al., 2017, has just been published online.  The nine scientists contributing to the research place special emphasis on the relationship between solar activity and climate for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region of Central Asia for the last 10,000-12,000 years.

The authors link high and low solar activity to correspondingly high and low temperatures and precipitation.  Undulating millennial- and centennial-scale temperatures are found to vary by about 2.5°C throughout the Holocene.   No mention is made of carbon dioxide as an influential factor affecting climate change.

Although the instrumental record for the region documents an abrupt warming in recent decades (which aligns with the Modern Grand Maximum), the proxy evidence from subfossil chironomids used to reconstruct temperature does not show a significant or unusual regional warming trend during the last century.


Holocene high-res. quantitative summer temp. reconstruction …

southeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau [Central Asia]

Zhang et al., 2017

1.    The record suggests the summer temperature varies by ~2.5 °C across the entire period. A generally warmer period occurred between c.8500 and c.6000 cal yr BP and a cooling trend was initiated from c.5500 cal yr BP. The overall pattern broadly matches the summer insolation at 30N and the Asian Summer Monsoon records from the surrounding regions suggesting that summer temperatures from the southeast margin of the QTP [Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau] respond to insolation forcing and monsoon driven variability on a multi-millennial time scale. Modifications of this overall trend are observed on the finer temporal resolution and we suggest that solar activity could be an important mechanism driving the centennial-scale variability. It may have a strengthened effect in the late Holocene when the monsoon influence weakened.

2.    We highlight that solar activity likely plays an enhanced role in changes of summer temperatures because of the high elevation of the QTP when the monsoon is weaker. The results also indicate that summer temperature variability at the QTP responds rapidly to solar irradiance changes in the late Holocene.

3.  The temperature drop may be also due to a decline in the solar activity related to the Hallstatt cycle, with solar minima centered at approximately 8200, 5500, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP (Steinhilber et al., 2012).

4.   All three records broadly follow the decreasing trend of summer insolation at 30 N (Berger and Loutre, 1991) and this pattern is widely recorded across southern and eastern Asia including from Dongge and Qunf Caves (Dykoski et al., 2005; Fleitmann et al., 2007). The trend is marked by a broad shift to lower average summer temperature values from ~5500 cal yr BP in the lake records, suggesting that long-term summer temperature and precipitation changes in southwestern China respond to changes in insolation forcing (Gray et al., 2010).

5.   The delayed response of regional climate to orbital forcing in the early Holocene may be linked to the temperature variability predominantly being driven by centennial scale solar irradiance fluctuations during this period (Fleitmann et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2005). In addition, the existence of remnant ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes in the early Holocene could have also caused the delay of the attainment of a temperature optimum in southwestern China in response to the solar insolation maximum (Xiao et al., 2009; Wen et al., 2010).

6.   The chironomid record from Tiancai Lake shows a 2.2° C summer warming just after ~2500 cal yr BP and the alkenone-based record from Qinghai Lake also shows a warming at this time interval. The warm period persisted for nearly 1000 years until ~1600 cal yr BP. This temporal coherence suggests a regional climate response and indicates that secondary forcing mechanisms can modify the insolation driven system. This warm period is possibly related to the rapid and overall rise of solar activity (Steinhilber et al., 2012).

7.   [T]hese observations may reflect the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon as a result of the enhanced solar activity influence. It is in line with evidence suggested in a few studies (Lihua et al., 2007; Thamban et al., 2007; Hiremath et al., 2015) from the Indian Summer Monsoon (e.g. Bay of Bengal) influenced area. In summary, the solar irradiance fluctuation is inferred to affect the summer air temperatures at the QTP either by directly raising lake water temperatures at the high altitude under a weakened summer monsoon condition or alternatively, it could also result in variations of the Indian Summer Monsoon activity at decadal to centennial scale in the late Holocene.

8.   In general, the pattern of millennial summer temperature changes is driven by the summer insolation-forced intensity of Asian summer monsoons during the Holocene. Variations from this general pattern were evident during the late Holocene and may be related to a shift in solar activity (e.g. from ~2500 to 1600 cal yr BP).


Resurging German Free Democrats Coming Out Against Out-Of-Control Wind Energy

Over the past few years Germans have been increasing their protests against the construction of wind trubines in the countryside and the idustrial littering of the landscape.

Hundreds of citizens’ protest groups have since formed with the aim of fiercely opposing the construction of wind parks in forests, open landscapes and near residential areas.

The level of resistance has reached the point where politicians are taking real notice, and now view it as a political issue worth adopting.

Photo right: René Rock, credit: FDP

The latest sign of this happening comes from the FDP Free Democrats, who have been resurging in Germany as of late. Last Sunday the party saw a record number of voters turn out in the state elections of North Rhine Westphalia. The Greens, on the other hand, saw almost half of their voters disappear.

Further south in the German state of Hesse, home of Frankfurt, parliamentarian René Rock, FDP fraction energy policy spokesman, has called for the return of “an energy policy of reason” and come out “with great passion against a purely ideologically motivated building of further wind parks in the Hesse“.

Rock’s website here states:

Wind energy is neither economically nor climate-politically sensible, it endangers the health of people and wildlife, and it destroys the beautiful and valuable natural and cultural heritage.”

Over the past years many Germans have been horrified seeing protected forests getting chopped down and cleared to make way for 200-meter tall turbines. Not only is it an eyesore, a danger to wildlife and uneconomical, Rock also adds that Germany’s EEG feed-in act is “the most unsocial law that Germany has ever had and that it must be stopped immediately. It is nothing more than pure redistribution from the bottom up and has put the market economy out of order.”

Rock also calls for a new energy policy that “really protects people, wildlife and the environment, that is the best market solution and one that foremost researches nuclear fusion.”

He also calls for the 10H setback rule, which requires wind turbines to be placed no closer to any resident than 10 times its height and that people’s concerns need to be taken more seriously.

Bad Nauheim mayor candidate Britta Weber, also of the Free Democrats, came out against the construction of a wind park nearby, stating that the “FDP here won’t go along with it. Every wind turbine is one too many. We need new technologies, other research areas, a return back to supply and demand, protection of our homeland, without ideology and state nannyism.”

 

Climate Movement Falters As German Greens/Socialists Take Historic Election Trouncing

Last Sunday voters in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine Wesphalia (NRW), sent a loud message: voters are much more concerned about problems other than climate protection and green energies.

The state’s ruling SPD Socialists/Green Party coalition government led by Hannelore Kraft took an historic beating, getting tossed out as the state swung far – from the left to the right.

The online International Economic Forum for Renewable Energies here consequently wrote:

Energy policy in Germany’s most populated state could change profoundly.”

Rise of the right

The center-right CDU party led by Armin Laschet took the top spot as it pulled in 33% of the vote, some 6.7% more than they did in the 2012 election. Most observers believe the CDU will partner up with business-friendly FDP free democrats, who picked up an impressive 12.6% of the vote, 4% more than the previous election.

The newcomer hard-right AfD party pulled in 7.4% in their first election in NRW ever.

Demise of the left: In total the center/right-of-center parties gained a whopping 18%, marking a major political shift.

Meanwhile the once ruling SPD Socialists saw their result disintegrate, falling almost 8% lower than 5 years ago, going from 39.1% to just 31.2%. The SPD coalition partners, The Greens, collapsed from 11.3% to a mere 6.4%. Meanwhile the extreme leftists, Die Linke, fell below the 5% threshold, and thus were booted out of the state parliament.

If anything, the results of the election show foremost that NRW citizens are far more concerned about other issues, such as crime, deteriorating educational quality and uncontrolled immigration, than they are about green issues. In recent polls climate and environment scored at the bottom of concerns.

Shift back to fossil fuels?

The results also hint at a growing sentiment that may be taking hold across Germany: Germans are realizing that no matter how much pain they might endure in trying to rescue the climate, ultimately their contribution on a global scale really will have very little impact at all. Whatever reductions Germany may achieve over the next 10-20 years will be wiped out in just a matter of months by large developing countries elsewhere, like China, India, and the African continent. What’s the point of all the pain?

According to the online International Economic Forum for Renewable Energies here:

With the altered balance of power in the most populated federal state comes an end to the previous energy policy of the ousted Red-Green state government. Conventional power sources will now get more support.”

Working class anger

The hard right AfD in fact garnered a large share of its support from working class people, who traditionally voted for the SPD, but who had grown dischanted with the widespread crimes waves, and hostility aimed by Greens at traditional energy industries and jobs.

Greens and a number of Socialists have called for an accelerated shut down of German coal plants, many of which are located in NRW. German power companies, such RWE and EON, have seen billions in losses and tens of thousands of layoffs over the past years, a direct result of massive green energy subsidies and a run-away feed-in act.

The NRW election results bode especially ill for the German left nationally, as federal elections are slated for September. It had been speculated earlier that the SPD’s new leader Martin Schulz would have a chance at ousting Angela Merkel and lifting the leftists and greens back into power for the first time in over a decade. But already any added popularity Schulz may have brought to the party earlier appears to have fizzled. Moreover, The Greens, traditional coalition partners of the SPD, are near record lows in the opinion polls (near 6%).

There’s risk that September’s election will end in a rout for the DPD and Greens.

New potential NRW government no big fan of green energies

Although the CDU often pays lip service to green energies, they are in fact not so keen about pushing them through with vigor. The FDP has recently been becoming more vocal in opposing wind and solar energy outright in many locations, and rather favor limiting them to certain area located along motorways and offshore.

The winds of energy are truly shifting in Germany.

 

15 New Papers: Scientists Abandoning Claims Of Dominant Man-Made Influence On Arctic Climate

Natural Forcing Of Arctic Climate

 Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists

Gajewski, 2015

Three years ago a cogent paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature that was surprisingly candid in its rejection of the position that the substantial warming and sea ice reduction in the Arctic occurring since the late 1970s should be predominantly attributed to anthropogenic forcing.

Dr. Quinhua Ding and 6 co-authors indicated in their paper that internal processes — natural variability associated with planetary waves and the North Atlantic Oscillation — are drivers of the recent Arctic warming and sea ice reduction, concluding that “a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”


Ding et al., 2014

Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks.  We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation.”  
Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth’s rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warmingThis suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”

Since 2014, there have been several more scientific papers that have been published documenting the significance of natural forcing processes in the Arctic and how they may override a clear detection of an anthropogenic influence.

But 2017 already seems to be an exception.  Papers that document the dominance of natural forcing — or that don’t even mention anthropogenic forcing as a factor in the Arctic climate processes — keep on rolling in.

As a case example, in a paper discussing the mechanisms involved in “Arctic amplification” and sea ice loss, Kim et al. (2017) never once mention anthropogenic forcing, or carbon dioxide, as mechanisms affecting the Arctic climate.  In fact, in citing several other authors, they acknowledge that the physical processes involved in the forcing of Arctic climate are “subject to debate” and remain “an open question.”   In other words, not only is the position that humans exert a dominant influence on the Arctic climate not “settled science”, the anthropogenic influence may be so muted a factor that it is not even worth mentioning in a paper discussing forcing mechanisms.


1. Kim et al., 2017

Understanding the Mechanism of Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss

“Sea ice reduction is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain the accelerated loss of polar sea ice, which remains an open question. … Previous studies have proposed the physical mechanisms of Arctic amplification, which involve the effect of atmospheric heat transport (Graversen et al., 2008), oceanic heat transport (Årthun et al., 2012; Chylek et al., 2009; 10 Spielhagen et al., 2011; Onarheim et al., 2015), cloud and water vapor changes (Francis and Hunter, 2007; Schweiger et al., 2008; Park et al., 2015a; Park et al., 2015b), and/or diminishing sea ice cover (Serreze et al., 2009; Screen and Simonds, 2010a; Kim et al., 2016). The accurate physical process of the Arctic amplification, however, is subject to debate.”
“Despite the general consensus that heat transfer between the ocean and atmosphere is a crucial element in the physical mechanism of Arctic amplification and sea ice reduction, a quantitative understanding of individual contributions of heat flux components is still controversial. Further, the role of upward and downward longwave radiations in Arctic amplification is vague and not fully understood. Accurately quantifying the contribution of these different mechanisms, therefore, is required for a complete understanding of the Arctic amplification.”
[CO2 is not mentioned as a mechanism responsible for Arctic amplification or sea ice loss.]

Two months ago, Dr. Ding delivered another Nature paper — this time with 10 co-authors — that once again emphasized the Arctic’s natural variability, specifically the internal processes involved in the substantial reduction in Arctic sea ice since 1979.  The scientists concluded that as much as 50% of the Arctic sea ice decline in the satellite era has been natural, and that anthropogenic forcing may play a much smaller role than has previously been assumed in climate models.

Many other newly-published papers advance the position that natural, non-anthropogenic processes are significant or even dominant factors in shaping the Arctic climate.  A total of 15 are cited here categorically.


A ‘Substantial Chunk’ Of Sea Ice Loss/Warming Due To Internal/Natural Variability


2. Ding et al., 2017 (press release

“The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. …  Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979. … [A] substantial chunk of summer sea ice loss in recent decades was due to natural variability in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.”

3. Fan and Yang, 2017

The wintertime Arctic temperature decreased from 1979 to 1997 and increased rapidly from 1998 to 2012, in contrast to the global mean surface air temperature [which] increased between 1979 and 1997, followed by a hiatus… A recent study suggests a possible role of the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation in regulating wintertime climate in the Arctic (Screen and Francis 2016).”
The ‘greenhouse effect’ of water vapor and clouds [CO2 not mentioned as contributing to the GHE] may amplify the effect of winds on Arctic winter climate.”
“The objectives of this study are to assess how much natural–internal variability has contributed to climate changes in these [Arctic] regions from 1979 to 2012 … In summary, the correlation analyses presented in this paper shows a natural mode of Arctic winter variability resulting from the Nordic–Siberian seesaw of meridional winds […] is associated with two-thirds of the interannual variance [cooling-warming] of winter-mean Arctic temperature between 1979 and 2012, and possibly contributed a substantial fraction of the observed Arctic amplification [1998-2012 warming] in this period.”


4. Seviour, 2017

Weakening and shift of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex: Internal variability or forced response? … By comparing large ensembles of historical simulations with pre-industrial control simulations for two coupled climate models, the ensemble mean response of the vortex is found to be small relative to internal variability. There is also no relationship between sea-ice decline and trends in either vortex location or strength. Despite this, individual ensemble members are found to have vortex trends similar to those observed, indicating that these trends may be primarily a result of natural internally-generated climate variability.”

Natural Planetary Waves Forcing


5. Baggett and Lee, 2017

“The dynamical mechanisms that lead to wintertime Arctic warming during the planetary-scale wave (PSW) and synoptic-scale wave (SSW) life cycles are identified by performing a composite analysis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The PSW life cycle is preceded by localized tropical convection over the Western Pacific. Upon reaching the mid-latitudes, the PSWs amplify as they undergo baroclinic conversion and constructively interfere with the climatological stationary waves. The PSWs [planetary scale waves] flux large quantities of sensible and latent heat into the Arctic which produces a regionally enhanced greenhouse effect that increases downward IR and warms the Arctic two-meter temperature. The SSW life cycle is also capable of increasing downward IR and warming the Arctic two-meter temperature, but the greatest warming is accomplished in the subset of SSW events with the most amplified PSWs. Consequently, during both the PSW and SSW life cycles, wintertime Arctic warming arises from the amplification of the PSWs [planetary scale waves].”

6. Gong et al., 2017

During the past three decades, the most rapid warming at the surface has occurred during the Arctic winter. By analyzing daily ERA-Interim data, we found that the majority of the winter warming trend north of 70°N can be explained by the trend in the downward infrared radiation (IR). This downward IR trend can be attributed to an enhanced poleward flux of moisture and sensible heat into the Arctic by poleward propagating Rossby waves, which increases the total column water and temperature within this region. This enhanced moisture flux is mostly due to changes in the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation rather than an increase in moisture in lower latitudes.”

Solar Forcing Of Arctic Climate, Sea Ice Trends


7. Li et al., 2017

“Correlations between paleotemperature records from the North Atlantic and solar activity suggest that changes in solar output may cause significant shifts in the climate of the North Atlantic region. To test the role of solar activity on summer SST at our study site in West Greenland, we conducted a cross-correlation analysis between our reconstructed summer SST record and a total solar irradiance (TSI) series. The results indicate that the maximum correlation coefficient (0.284) of summer SST [sea surface temperatures] and TSI [total solar irradiance] records is obtained at nearly zero time-lag (-6 time-lag), which means that variations in solar activity affected the summer SST variability in the study area. … A significant positive relationship between summer SSTs on the North Icelandic shelf and solar irradiance reconstructed from 10Be and 14C records during the Holocene was also demonstrated by Jiang et al.  … Spectral analyses indicate that significant centennial-scale variations are superimposed on the long-term orbital trend. The dominant periodicities are 529, 410, and 191 years, which may be linked to the well-known 512- and 206-year solar cycles. Cross-correlation analyses between the summer SSTs and total solar irradiance through the last 5000 years indicate that the records are in phase, providing evidence that variations in solar activity impacted regional summer SST variability. Overall, the strong linkage between solar variability and summer SSTs is not only of regional significance, but is also consistent over the entire North Atlantic region.”


8. Stein et al., 2017

“The causes that are controlling the decrease in sea ice are still under discussion. In several studies changes in extent, thickness and drift of Arctic sea ice are related to changes in the overall atmospheric circulation patterns as reflected in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The NAO and AO are influencing changes of the relative position and strength of the two major surface-current systems of the Arctic Ocean. … The increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon, coinciding with major glacier advances on Franz Josef Land, Spitsbergen and Scandinavia.  The increase in sea ice may have resulted from the continuing cooling trend due to decreased solar insolation and reduced heat flow from the Pacific. … The increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon as PIP25-based sea ice records from the Fram Strait, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea  display a generally quite similar evolution, all coinciding with the decrease in solar radiationThe main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice and surface-water productivity are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation, whereas short-term centennial variability observed in the high-resolution middle Holocene record was possibly triggered by solar forcing.”

9. Sha et al., 2017

“The reconstruction indicates warm conditions with reduced sea-ice cover, associated with the Holocene Thermal Maximum, from ca. 6700 to 5000 cal. yr BP. … A distinct increase in sea-ice cover began at 1750 cal. yr BP, with absolute maximum values during the last millennium.  … In order to assess the contribution of different potential forcing factors to sea-ice conditions off West Greenland, we evaluated the relationship between our sea-ice reconstruction and solar activity, as well as with the strength of ocean circulation. The observed agreement between the sea-ice record and solar activity suggests that solar forcing may have been an important trigger for sea-ice variability off West Greenland during the last 5000 yr.”


Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Forcing


10. Lapointe et al., 2017

“This paper investigates an annually-laminated (varved) record from the western Canadian Arctic and finds that the varves are negatively correlated with both the instrumental Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the past century and also with reconstructed PDO over the past 700 years, suggesting drier Arctic conditions during high-PDO phases, and vice versa. These results are in agreement with known regional teleconnections, whereby the PDO is negatively and positively correlated with summer precipitation and mean sea level pressure respectively. This pattern is also evident during the positive phase of the North Pacific Index (NPI) in autumn. Reduced sea-ice cover during summer–autumn is observed in the region during PDO− (NPI+) and is associated with low-level southerly winds that originate from the northernmost Pacific across the Bering Strait and can reach as far as the western Canadian Arctic. These climate anomalies are associated with the PDO− (NPI+) phase and are key factors in enhancing evaporation and subsequent precipitation in this region of the Arctic.”

Cloud Radiative Forcing


11. Solomon et al., 2017

“A number of feedbacks are found that damp the warming effect of the clouds. Thin mixed-phase clouds increase the downward longwave fluxes by 100 W m−2, but upward daytime surface longwave fluxes increase by 20 W m−2 (60 W m−2 at night) and net shortwave fluxes decrease by 40 W m−2 (partially due to a 0.05 increase in surface albedo), leaving only 40 W m−2 available for melt. This 40 W m−2 is distributed between the turbulent and conductive ground fluxes, so it is only at times of weak turbulent fluxes (i.e., at night or during melt) that this energy goes into the conductive ground flux, providing energy for melt. From these results it is concluded that it is the integrated impact of the clouds over the diurnal cycle (the preconditioning of the snowpack by the clouds at night) that made melt possible during this 3-day period. These findings are extended to understand the pattern of melt observed over the GIS. … Mixed-phase clouds are common at Summit (Shupe et al. 2013) and play a critical role in the Arctic surface energy balance (Shupe and Intrieri 2004), radiatively warming the highly reflective surface at Summit year-round (Miller et al. 2015).”

Most Of The Arctic’s Net Warming Occurred Before 1950


The instrumental record (HadCRUT) for Arctic temperatures indicates that there has been no significant net warming in the Arctic during the last ~80 years.  Newly published papers also affirm that much of the warming of the Arctic occurred before 1950, or before humans began emitting CO2 in large quantities.


12. Werner et al., 2017

“During the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly], the contrast between reconstructed summer temperatures over mid- and high-latitudes in Europe and the European/North Atlantic sector of the Arctic shows a very dynamic expression of the Arctic amplification, with leads and lags between continental and more marine and extreme latitude settings. While our analysis shows that the peak MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] summer temperatures were as high as in the late 20th and early 21st century, the spatial coherence of extreme years over the last decades seems unprecedented at least back until 750 CE. However, statistical testing could not provide conclusive support of the contemporary warming to supersede the peak of the MCA in terms of the pan-Arctic mean summer temperatures.”


13. Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017

The abrupt climatic transition of the early 20th century and the 25-year warm period 1925–1950 triggered the main retreat and volume loss of these glaciers since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age. Meanwhile, cooling during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s altered the trend, with advances of the glacier snouts.”
“The trend in Western Tungnahryggsjökull during the first half of the 20th century was a more rapid retreat, showing the highest average rates of the whole period (19.5 m yr−1). By 1946, this glacier had retreated almost 90% of the total recorded between the LIA maximum (1868) and 2005.”


14. Vachula et al., 2017


15. Krawczyk et al., 2017

Fake Climate Science On German ARD Television. Sea Ice Cover Indeed Saw Large Pre-Industrial Fluctuations

Inconvenient historical natural sea ice fluctuations

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

On April 29 German ARD public television presented a report on a Canadian sea ice reconstruction using coral algae growth. The report (in German) can be seen at the ARD-Mediathek in the Internet (begins at the 16:38 mark).

German researcher Jochen Halfar of the University of Toronto found a coral algae type in Canada’s Arctic Ocean that forms annual rings. During the polar nights of winter, photosynthesis stops. In the spring it reactivates again and the algae starts to grow, and does so much better when there is less ice to block out the sunlight. This allows the sea ice cover to be reconstructed over the past several centuries.

It is truly a documentary worth seeing.

But it does has one point that deserves to be criticized. Beginning at the the 27:10 mark, Halfar shows a reconstruction for northern Canada with a strongly receding ice cover since 1850 (Figure 1). Thus the algae growth has increased greatly since 1850 because the shrinking ice cover allowed more light to find its way to the algae.

Fig. 1: Curve for sea ice cover over the past 200 years in North America was reconstructed from coral algae growth, which is shown in the above chart. The strong upward trend means reduced sea ice cover. Screenshot from ARD documentary at 27:20 mark.

The problem is that Halfar blames the effect solely on the industrialization that started in 1850 and the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here it would have been more real if he had brought up the Little Ice Age – the coldest phase of the last 10,000 years – a natural climate variation. He must have forgotten about it. But things got interesting shortly thereafter when Halfar claimed that such a reduction in sea ice had never occurred during the examined pre-industrial time. But then the camera moved in on the curve for the past 600 years (Fig. 2):

Fig. 2: Coral algae curve for northern Canada over the past 600 years, which allows sea ice cover to be reconstructed. The upward trend line on the right side supposedly corresponds to what Halfar said was an unprecedented sea ice reduction. Screenshot from ARD documentary at the 27:37 mark.

Lo and behold, the data immediately refuted Halfar’s claim. Between 1430 and 1470 there were multiple algae growth spurts which would mean a sea ice reduction.

So what could have caused these earlier warm phases? Here the solar active phase between the Wolf and Spörer Minima may have played a role. But maybe it was due to the AMO or PDO.

In any case Halfar succeeded in documenting significant pre-industrial fluctuations which were flat out ignored on Germany’s flagship ARD public television.

The elephant in the room is plain to see: If one goes back some hundreds of years into the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) when Arctic sea ice also melted, we find that sea ice cover was about what it is today.

We have documented the Medieval ice melt very well within the scope of our ongoing MWP Mapping Project  We have to assume that Halfar is very familiar with this literature. It remains a mystery as to why he left out this important climate-historical context in the documentary.

 

Low-Nutrient, Vertical-Farming Foods Could Pose Serious Health Risk To Vegans Hell-Bent On Saving Planet

There’s no doubt about it, most people today are highly confused and misinformed when it comes to proper nutrition. And when you look at the vast array of kooky food and diet fads out there, it’s clear very few people in fact understand what is really healthy. The obesity rates and chronic disease statistics tell the sad story.

Planet saving vegan diet

One of the main factors motivating some people to switch to a leafy-greenie vegan diet is to reduce the impact on a planet that is supposedly totally stressed out in part by meat-producing agriculture. That kind of environmental and food zealotry embodied by the vegan movement poses a considerable health risk to the vegans who do not practice it correctly — especially children and pregnant women. The risk of nutrient deficiency is way too high and so it’s little wonder that most doctors recommend avoiding the vegan diet altogether.

Vertical planet-saving farming indoors

The latest planet-saving trend that’s been taking off is urban, vertical farming using so-called hydroponic methods where soil and real sunlight are not even used. It’s done indoors, often in large, shut-down industrial buildings.

In the following video, Aerofarms claims (as do most vertical farms) a great number of advantages with its technology, such as the non-use of pesticides and herbicides, a highly monitored and controlled round-the-clock growing process, 95% water-use reduction, clean produce, and short farm-to-dinner table times.

More importantly, it boasts having a much smaller impact on the planet and climate, and many vertical farms are even backed by big investors, like Goldman Sachs.

Naturally, all these wonderful selling points will likely send planet-protection-obsessed vegans flocking in droves to this new source of leafy greens and produce.

But stepping back for a moment and taking a closer look, we see that these vertical farms are in fact far from being natural. They are industrial, technical mass food production that have very little to do with nature. They do not use soil, are automated, use artificial light, and there’s no exposure to weather elements. The real target is to produce as much plant mass as possible, and as quickly as possible. Nutrient density is a side issue.

Recycled plastic cloth instead of natural soil

At Aerofarms, located in an industrial area of Newark, New Jersey, the crop roots are put in “a reusable cloth made of recycled plastic”. Under the microfleece membrane, the bare roots are enveloped by “nutrient-rich mist”, another promotion video explains. In hydroponic farming, crop roots supposedly get constantly exposed to a “nutrient-rich” solution instead of regular fertile, worm-filled black earth that we typically associate with healthy crops.

Low nutrient density

Although these vertical farms are highly productive in terms of plant mass (which happens to be how food is sold, and not according to nutrient content), the question is just how nutrient-dense are these planet-saving industrially grown crops? Buying mass at a market is one thing, buying nutrients is quite another. After all, what good is a pound of kale if it was produced by doping the plant so that it makes lots of empty cellulose?

The human body needs in total dozens of essential minerals, trace elements, vitamins, fatty acids and amino acids to remain in good health. The source of many of these nutrients is fertile soil from Mother Nature. The question is: Can vertical, soil-less farms grow crops that are just as good as those grown outdoors with their roots in real earth in a real garden? Can a laboratory produce a hydroponic solution replace real soil?

Vegans may be putting themselves at higher risk

A number of experts are high skeptical, and warn that these artificially grown crops may be highly deficient in a vast number of essential nutrients.

For vegans, who are already practicing a diet that borders on malnutrition, opting for the vertically-farmed crop variety could pose serious and real health risks.

Criticism of vertical farms is not new. For example the healthy home economist here thinks hydroponically grown foods are in fact low-nutrient foods and should not be relied on.

Environmental awareness site treehugger here thinks “it’s wrong on so many levels”.

Even the greenie Guardian here wonders if it really makes any sense at all.

So what risks happening to the already half-starved, climate-panicked vegans who may be rushing to this new utopian source of leafy greens? There’s a high risk that they will only end up exacerbating their already nutrient-deficient situation and wind up making themselves ill quickly. Another case of good intentions possibly leading to a disaster.

No comment from vertical grower

I sent an e-mail (twice!) asking Bowery if they had their produce analyzed for nutrient content, and if so, if it would be possible to get the results so that a comparison to the regular stuff could be made. Up to now I have not gotten a reply of any type. I’m also skeptical.

Vegans would be well-advised to find out what nutrients are really in the produce that comes from vertical farms.

Clean obsessions

There’s another risk possibly associated with what also appears to be a growing obsession with food cleanliness and purity. We may indeed be doing the human species more harm than good over the long run, as the human immune system and our natural detoxification and cleansing systems may wind up getting lazy and slow over the long term. Our bodies are equipped to handle impurities. There’s a reason we have kidneys, a liver, etc. The risk is: If you don’t use it, you’ll lose it.

===============================
UPDATE:

Bowery just responded by email:

At Bowery, our nutrients are water soluble versions of the same ones you would find naturally occurring in the most fertile of soil environments, and this nutrient-rich water is taken up directly by the roots of our plants. By monitoring the growing process 24/7 and capturing data at each step, we give our crops exactly what they need and nothing more to grow the purest produce imaginable, while using absolutely zero pesticides, herbicides, or fungicides. We do also regularly test for nutrient composition to ensure plant health and quality, though we don’t publicly release this data.”

German Solar Energy: From “Technology Of the Future ” To Extinction In Just 10 Years!

Spiegel here calls it “the end of an era”.

Once ballyhooed as the technology of the future bearing the promise of economic revival in Germany, solar equipment manufacturing has crumbled and gone the way of dinosaurs, all in a matter of a decade. So rapidly can economic evolution send subsidized industries into extinction.

Germany’s last remaining major solar manufacturer, Bonn-based Solarworld, led by a flamboyant Frank Asbeck, has officially declared it will file for insolvency after 6 years of red ink (operating results). The announcement was made Wednesday.

Shattered dreams

Thousands of workers who banked their futures on solar jobs now face uncertain futures. Solarworld’s demise is the last in a spectacular series of solar manufacturer bankruptcies that swept across Germany over the past years, with names like Solon, Solar Millenium and Q-Cells going under.

According to Finanzen.net here, Solarworld had over 3000 employees on the payroll at the end of 2016.

In the early 2000s leaders and green energy proponents promised to turn parts of former communist East Germany into a “Solar Valley” that would boast secure, high paying hightech jobs. Today it’s a solar rustbelt with a ruined landscape of shattered visions and dreams. Spiegel calls it a “valley of tears”.

Maserati-driving Green Party co-founder

Solarworld was viewed as the German solar industry’s leader, and its director Asbeck was called the “sun king” and even had solar panels installed on the Vatican and met Pope Benedict XVI personally.

Asbeck, one of the co-founders of the German Green Party and an avid owner of a 300 hp Maserati, blames the company’s woes mainly on cheap imports from China and legal battles in the USA, reports WirtschaftsWoche. Asbeck is reported by Wikipedia to also own expensive properties, such as Schloss CalmuthVilla Cahn and Schloss Marienfels, Remagen (below):

One of Frank Asbeck’s houses, Schloss Marienfels. Image by Wolkenkratzer CC BY-SA 3.0

In 2016 Solarworld posted a 92 million euro loss. Solarworld’s subsidiary companies are also expected to declare insolvency. The insolvency signifies the end of the manufacture of solar components and technology in the country.

 

Flashback 1978: Scientist Predicts 10°C Warming, 5 Meter Sea Level Rise, 660 ppm CO2…By 2028!

AGW ‘Disaster’ Predictions Recycled

1978: 5 Meter Sea Level Rise By 2028

 2015: 10 Feet Sea Level Rise By 2065 


Forecasting human-caused climate disaster is anything but new.

Nearly 40 years ago, a landmark paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature providing a dapper rubric for the modern human-caused climate disaster papers to follow.

The Mercer (1978) “…a threat of disaster” paper introduced above was fraught with presumptions, guesswork, and spectacularly wrong predictions about the connections between fossil fuel consumption by humans and future carbon dioxide (CO2) parts per million (ppm) concentrations, the melting of polar ice sheets, and an impeding sea level rise disaster.

Specifically, Mercer claimed that atmospheric CO2 concentrations would double from ~330 parts per million (late 1970s) to ~660 ppm within 50 years, or by 2028 — due to a continuance of the rapid growth in fossil fuel consumption.  Indeed, global-scale fossil fuel or CO2 emissions rates have increased by approximately 100% since the late 1970s, or from about 5 gigatons of carbon (GtC) per year (late 1970s) to about 10 GtC/year by 2014.  And yet, despite the explosive increase in CO2 emissions, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is nowhere close to reaching 660 ppm.  Instead, it currently hovers around 400 to 405 ppm.  It would appear highly implausible to claim that CO2 concentrations will rise by more than 250 ppm in the next 11 years.

The Mercer paper also states that the expected temperature increase due to the doubling of CO2 concentrations would, according to climate models, yield a temperature change of +10°C for the region.  This sweltering warmth could, according to advocates of human-caused climate alarm, cause a “rapid deglaciation” of the West Antarctica ice sheet that would, in turn, lead to sea level rise by about 5 meters within 50 years (2028).

As will be illustrated below, the temperatures for Antarctica as a whole have not risen since 1979.  Instead, they have been flat to slightly cooling.  And, of course, without the “rapid deglaciation” of the West Antarctic ice sheet, sea levels would need to rise by about 4.95 meters in the next 11 years to satisfy the “disaster” forecasts outlined by Mercer in 1978.



Today, Scientists Predict 1400 ppm CO2, 16- 30°C Warming By 2130


Dr. James Hansen, the leading  climate scientist at NASA for decades and often characterized as the father of climate change awareness, has long been alarming the public with forecasts of climate doom.

Like Mercer (1978), Hansen has written that CO2 concentrations will quintuple to reach 1400 ppm just 118 years from now (2013), or by the year 2130.  Humans, he writes, will burn through 10,000 GtC of fossil fuels by then. This atmospheric CO2 concentration (1400 ppm) is said to yield a warming of 16°C globally, 20°C over land, and 30°C at the poles by 2130.  It is also claimed that this human-caused climate disaster will eliminate agricultural production for most of the world and otherwise  make “most of the planet uninhabitable by humans”.


Hansen et al., 2013

“If we assume that fossil fuel emissions increase by 3% per year, typical of the past decade and of the entire period since 1950, cumulative fossil fuel emissions will reach 10 000 Gt C in 118 years [~2130].  Are there sufficient fossil fuel reserves to yield 5000–10 000 Gt C? Recent updates of potential reserves, including unconventional fossil fuels (such as tar sands, tar shale and hydrofracking-derived shale gas) in addition to conventional oil, gas and coal, suggest that 5×CO2 (1400 ppm) is indeed feasible.”

“Our calculated global warming in this case [1400 ppm] is 16°C, with warming at the poles approximately 30°C. Calculated warming over land areas averages approximately 20°C. Such temperatures would eliminate grain production in almost all agricultural regions in the world. Increased stratospheric water vapour would diminish the stratospheric ozone layer. More ominously, global warming of that magnitude would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans.”


Modern Alarmist Forecast: Now 10 Feet Of Sea Level Rise By 2065


It is obvious the 660 ppm CO2 concentration, wholesale melting of West Antarctica, and 5 meters of sea level rise forecast by Mercer in 1978 has not materialized.  No matter.  When observations contradict projections found in climate models, modern climate scientists don’t question or modify their CO2-caused-climate-disaster assumptions.  They just change the dates.

The current forecast from climate scientists is that both the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will melt 10 times faster than what they have been in recent decades, and this will lead to 10 feet (~3 meters) of sea level rise by about 2065.


Observations Of Negligible Mass Losses For Antarctica In Recent Decades


According to the most highly-cited analyses of polar ice sheet melt and contribution to sea level rise, the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole changed in mass by -71 gigatonnes (GT) per year between 1992 and 2011.  This modest mass loss contributed just 0.2 mm/year to sea level rise over that 20 year period.


Shepherd et al., 2012

“Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.”


To put that 0.2 mm/year sea level rise contribution from Antarctica (1992-2011) into perspective, at that pace it would take 100 years for the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole contribute 2 centimeters to sea level rise.

And more recent estimates of the Antarctic mass balance contribution to sea level rise has the East Antarctica ice sheet gaining mass at a more accelerated pace for 2003-2013 than the mere +14 Gt per year identified by Shepherd et al. (2012) for 1992-2011.  For example, Martín-Español et al. (2017) find that the total mass trend for the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was a gain of +57 Gt per year during 2003-2013, which is 4 times the rate of gain assessed for 1992-2011.  Effectively, this would reduce the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise to close to zero for recent decades.


Martín-Español et al., 2017

We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for 2003–2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. … We apportion mass trends to SMB and ice dynamics for the EAIS, based on two different assumptions, different remote sensing data and two RCMs. In the first experiment, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +17 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +40 Gt yr−1 to SMB, resulting in a total mass trend for the EAIS [East Antarctic Ice Sheet] of +57 ± 20 Gt yr−1.”


Observations Reveal No Recent Warming In Antarctica


Antarctica has not been cooperating with the forecasts of human-caused climate disaster narrative.  Within the last year, scientists have been reporting that essentially the only place on the Antarctic ice sheet where there was pronounced warming in recent decades — the West Antarctic Peninsula — has reversed course since the 21st century began.  It is now cooling…rapidly.  There has even been “a shift to surface mass gains” for glaciers in that region.


Turner et al., 2016

“Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer.”


Oliva et al., 2017

“However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014. … This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula], including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.”


Another recent analysis reveals that West Antarctica — the region that Mercer maintained would rapidly melt and contribute 5 meters to sea level rise — has undergone the “strongest” long-term cooling trend of any region in the Antarctic.  Furthermore, Stenni et al. (2017) conclude there has been “no continental-scale warming of Antarctic temperature” evident in the last century.


Stenni et al., 2017

“A recent effort to characterize Antarctic and sub-Antarctic climate variability during the last 200 years also concluded that most of the trends observed since satellite climate monitoring began in 1979 CE cannot yet be distinguished from natural (unforced) climate variability (Jones et al., 2016), and are of the opposite sign [cooling, not warming] to those produced by most forced climate model simulations over the same post-1979 CE interval.

(1) Temperatures over the Antarctic continent show an overall cooling trend during the period from 0 to 1900 CE, which appears strongest in West Antarctica, and (2) no continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”


Extending the temperature record back even further, modern temperatures in West Antarctica are still some of the coldest of the last 8,000 years.


Fudge et al., 2016


Forecasts Of Human-Caused Climate Disaster Are Non-Scientific


In science, when a hypothesis is advanced and tested using empirical evidence, and the results of the testing do not support the hypothesis, the hypothesis is then discarded.

In climate science, a hypothesis has been advanced that says a rise in human CO2 emissions will cause polar ice sheets to dramatically recede and contribute meters to sea level rise within a span of decades.  This hypothesis is not supported by the observational evidence.

But instead of discarding this hypothesis and conceding that our knowledge of the factors contributing to polar ice sheet melt and sea level rise are still not fully developed, climate scientists continue to embrace their favored hypotheses anyway.

So instead of human-caused climate disaster occurring in 2028, it will now occur in 2065.  Or perhaps 2100.  Or 2130.  Or…someday.

Image Source: State of the Climate, 2016

 

Analysis Confirms Global-Warming-Defying Protracted Northern Hemisphere Winter!

Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather here presents an analysis of the just now ending winter of 2017. It’s nothing you’d expect from a world that is supposedly warming.
===========================

As the following Environment Canada chart shows, snow is running at well above normal levels across the Northern Hemisphere”
Snow is running at well above normal levels across the Northern Hemisphere; courtesy Environment Canada

Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow.

Now much of the US is experiencing an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May.

Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we head towards the middle of May.

Arctic now cooler than normal

In addition, temperatures in the Arctic region – which have been generally running at above-normal levels in recent weeks – have actually dropped to below-normal in recent days and, if this trend continues, it should prevent any chance for sea ice extent to reach record lows up there this summer.

Temperatures in the Arctic region (>80 degrees N) have fallen to below-normal levels (circled area) in recent days following several weeks at generally above-normal levels; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics/Dr. Ryan Maue

Temperatures in the Arctic region (>80 degrees N) have fallen to below-normal levels (circled area) in recent days following several weeks at generally above-normal levels; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics/Dr. Ryan Maue

One of the main factors contributing to this late season cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere is a blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere centered over Greenland and Iceland and this tends to contribute to cold air outbreaks into the land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

500 millibar height anomaly pattern with strong blocking (in red) over Greenland and Iceland and deep upper-level lows over the Northeast and Southwest US; map courtesy AER/Dr. Judah Cohen

500 millibar height anomaly pattern with strong blocking (in red) over Greenland and Iceland and deep upper-level lows over the Northeast and Southwest US; map courtesy AER/Dr. Judah Cohen

The upper-level pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is playing a big role in this late season cold. Indeed, blocking is now well established over Greenland/Iceland as indicated by the latest 500 millibar height anomalies (red region) and this type of pattern can force cold air southward from northern latitudes into land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Arctic Oscillation (top) and North Atlantic Oscillation (bottom) index values for the current time and past few months (in black) and forecasted values are shown in red through the month of May; data courtesy NOAA

Arctic Oscillation (top) and North Atlantic Oscillation (bottom) index values for the current time and past few months (in black) and forecasted values are shown in red through the month of May; data courtesy NOAA

Two indices that meteorologists can track in order to monitor the pressure patterns over the northern latitudes are the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  When these indices drop into negative territory for extended periods this time of year, the result is often an upper-level blocking pattern across the northern latitudes.

There is some hope that later this month this blocking pattern will fall apart and the computer model forecasts of the AO and NAO indices (shown in red) do suggest a return to positive territory in the near future.

Text by Meteorologist Paul Dorian, with some editing by NTZ.
vencoreweather.com

 

Leading Alarmist Climate Scientist Concedes NO Anthropogenic Signal Found In Tropical Pacific

Mojib Latif: Climate models fail to simulate tropical Pacific. No detectable anthropogenic signal

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Prof. Mojib Latif is a widely sought out speaker for events and the German media, and he never passes up the opportunity to warn the public of the impending climate catastrophe. However at his his daytime job he is also a scientist, and there he publishes research results on a regular basis. On many occasions we have noticed that in his scientific papers he appears to be far less dramatic and more balanced than he is in the media. Some examples follow:

On April 5, 2017, in the Geophysical Research Letters there’s yet another example to behold. With his colleagues Latif examined the tropical Pacific. In the eastern and central parts temperatures have cooled over the past two decades. Climate models are having a hard time recreating this development. Latif and his group looked at this case and assumed that natural climate variability is behind it. They have not been able to find an anthropogenic impact on the temperature development in this region.

They conclude that the climate models would be too uncertain to make forecasts concerning the acting circulation in the region.

With that in mind, wouldn’t it be nice if Latif mentioned this the next time he appears on a talk show? But don’t hold your breath thinking this will happen anytime soon.

It’s the two faces of Mojib Latif. It’s unclear how her goes about justifying this scientifically and ethically. What follows is the abstract with the highlighted main points:

Role of Internal Variability in Recent Decadal to Multidecadal Tropical Pacific Climate Changes

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar, Thomas Martin, Mojib Latif and Wonsun Park

While the Earth’s surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in its eastern and central part, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial Trade Winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the Trade Winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational datasets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.

Highlights:

  • Pacific Walker Circulation strongly varies internally
  • Anthropogenic signals in the tropical Pacific sector are hard to detect
  • There is large model uncertainty about the future of the Pacific Walker Circulation”

10 New Papers: Sea Levels 1 – 6 Meters Higher 4,000 – 6,000 Years Ago

Sea Levels Meters Higher While

CO2 Levels Were Below 300 ppm

 

Image Yoon et al., 2017

Before the advent of the industrial revolution in the late 18th to early 19th centuries, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations hovered around 280 parts per million (ppm).

Within the last century, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen dramatically.  Just recently they eclipsed 400 ppm.

Scientists like Dr. James Hansen have concluded that pre-industrial CO2 levels were climatically ideal.  Though less optimal, atmospheric CO2 concentrations up to 350 ppm have been characterized as climatically “safe”.  However, CO2 concentrations above 350 ppm are thought to be dangerous to the Earth system.  It is believed that such “high” concentrations could lead to rapid warming, glacier and ice sheet melt, and especially catastrophic sea level rise of 10 feet within 50 years.

It is interesting to note these prognostications of impending deluge are predicated on the assumption that CO2 concentrations are a driver of sea level fluctuations.

Scientists have determined that during the interglacial 400,000 years ago (MIS 11), CO2 peaked at a very safe 280 parts per million (ppm).  Despite such a low and “ideal” CO2 concentration, scientists have determined that sea levels during that interglacial were 20 meters higher than than they are now.


Guo et al., 2017

“The upper 250 meter-long sediment core of Site U1391 (1085 m water depth) retrieved from the Portuguese margin in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean was adopted for the benthic foraminiferal analyses to disclose the variations in Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) intensity over the last ~ 0.9 Ma [900,000 years]. The strongest MOW [Mediterranean Outflow Water]  intensity during MIS 11 [400,000 years ago] confirms the climatic influence of waving sea level on the MOW current by its +20 m high-stand above the present sea level.”

CO2 graph courtesy of NASA.gov

Sea Levels 6-8 Meters Higher 6-9 Thousand Years Ago (~260 ppm CO2)


Although most scientists have found that the Holocene’s (~11,700 years ago to present) sea level peaks (highstands) were between 1 and 4 meters higher than present, there are some who have found that Early Holocene sea levels reached as high as 6 to 8 meters above mean sea level today.


Prieto et al., 2016

“Analysis of the RSL [relative sea level] database revealed that the RSL [relative sea level] rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m [above present] between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present] … This RSL [relative sea level] curve was re-plotted by Gyllencreutz et al. (2010) using the same index points and qualitative approach but using the calibrated ages. It shows rising sea-levels following the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), reaching a RSL [relative sea level] maximum of +6.5 m above present at c. 6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], followed by a stepped regressive trend towards the present.”


Hodgson et al., 2016

“Rapid early Holocene sea-level rise in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica … The field data show rapid increases in rates of relative sea level rise of 12–48 mm/yr [+1.2 to 4.8 meters per century] between 10,473 (or 9678) and 9411 cal yr BP in the Vestfold Hills and of 8.8 mm/yr between 8882 and 8563 cal yr BP in the Larsemann Hills. … The geological data imply a regional RSL [relative sea level] high stand of c. 8 m [above present levels], which persisted between 9411 cal yr BP and 7564 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], and was followed by a period when deglacial sea-level rise was almost exactly cancelled out by local rebound.”


Recent Sea Level Rise Undetectable When Viewed In Its Long-Term Context


Despite the surge in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 since the 20th century began, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by an average of 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of less than 7 inches (17 cm) per century and an overall rise of just 0.19 of a meter in 110 years.

According to Wenzel and Schröter (2014), the acceleration rate for the sea level rise trend since 1900 has been just +0.0042 mm/yr, which is acknowledged by the authors to be “not significant” and well within the larger range of uncertainty (+ or – 0.0092 mm/yr), effectively putting the overall 20th/21st century sea level rise acceleration rate at nearly zero.

As mentioned, most scientists have found that sea levels were about 1 – 4 meters higher than they are now between 4,000 and 6,000 years ago (when CO2 concentrations were about 260 to 265 ppm).  It may therefore be enlightening to visualize the overall nineteen hundredths of a meter (0.19) rise in sea levels since 1901 in its long-term (Holocene) context.  Assuming a sea level highstand of about 2.5 meters above present during the Mid-Holocene, notice how modest the recent rise appears.


10 More New Papers Affirm Sea Levels Were Much Higher 4-6 Thousand Years Ago


In the last few years alone (2014 to 2016), there were at least 35 papers published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature indicating that sea levels were substantially higher than they are now just a few thousand years ago…when CO2 concentrations are thought to have been “safe”.

In 2017, there have already been another 10 scientific papers published that can be added to this growing list.

It is becoming more and more apparent that sea levels rise and fall without any obvious connection to CO2 concentrations.  And if an anthropogenic signal cannot be conspicuously connected to sea level rise (as scientists have increasingly noted), then the greatest perceived threat (rising sea levels) promulgated by advocates of dangerous anthropogenic global warming will have lost its impact.


1.  Das et al., 2017  (India)

“In the absence of any evidence of land-level changes, the study suggests that at around 6 ka to 3 ka [6,000 to 3,000 years ago], the sea was approximately 2 m higher than present.”

2.  Fontes et al., 2017   (Brazil)

During the early-middle Holocene there was a rise in RSL [relative sea level] with a highstand at about 5350 cal yr BP [calendar years before present]  of 2.7 ± 1.35 m [higher than present], which caused a marine incursion along the fluvial valley.”


3.  Yoon et al., 2017  (Korea)

“Songaksan is the youngest eruptive centre on Jeju Island, Korea, and was produced by a phreatomagmatic eruption in a coastal setting c. 3.7 ka BP [3,700 years before present]. The 1 m thick basal portion of the tuff ring shows an unusually well-preserved transition of facies from intertidal to supratidal, from which palaeo-high-tide level and a total of 13 high-tide events were inferred. Another set of erosion surfaces and reworked deposits in the middle of the tuff ring, as high as 6 m above present mean sea level, is interpreted to be the product of wave reworking during a storm-surge event that lasted approximately three tidal cycles. … The reworked deposits alternate three or four times with the primary tuff beds of Units B and C and occur as high as 6 m above present mean sea level or 4 m above high-tide level (based on land-based Lidar terrain mapping of the outcrop surface).”

 


4.  Marwick et al., 2017  (full pdf)  (Thailand)

“Sinsakul (1992) has summarised 56 radiocarbon dates of shell and peat from beach and tidal locations to estimate a Holocene sea level curve for peninsula Thailand that starts with a steady rise in sea level until about 6 k BP, reaching a height of +4 m amsl (above [present] mean sea level). Sea levels then regressed until 4.7 k BP, then rising again to 2.5 m amsl at about 4 k BP. From 3.7 k to 2.7 k BP there was a regressive phase, with transgression starting again at 2.7 k BP to a maximum of 2 m amsl at 2.5 k BP. Regression continued from that time until the present sea levels were reached at 1.5 k BP. … Tjia (1996) collected over 130 radiocarbon ages from geological deposits of shell in abrasion platforms, sea-level notches and oyster beds and identified a +5 m [above present] highstand at ca. 5 k BP in the Thai-Malay Peninsula. …  Sathiamurthy and Voris (2006) summarise the evidence described above as indicating that between 6 and 4.2 k BP, the sea level rose from 0 m to +5 m [above present] along the Sunda Shelf [+2.8 mm/yr], marking the regional mid-Holocene highstand. Following this highstand, the sea level fell gradually and reached the modern level at about 1 k BP [1,000 years ago].”

5.  May et al., 2017 (W. Australia)

[T]he mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of Western Australia [was] at least 1–2 m above present mean sea level. … Between approximately 7000 and 6000 years BP, post-glacial RSL [relative sea level] reached a highstand of 1-2 m above the present one, followed by a phase of marine regression (Lambeck and Nakada, 1990; Lewis et al., 2013).”

6.  Kane et al., 2017 (Equatorial Pacific)

“The high stand is documented across the equatorial Pacific with peak sea-level values ranging from 0.25 to 3.00 m above present mean sea level (MSL) between 1000 and 5000 yr BP (Fletcher and Jones, 1996; Grossman et al., 1998; Dickinson, 2003; Woodroffe et al., 2012). Woodroffe et al. (2012) argues that Holocene sea-level oscillations of a meter or greater are likely to have been produced by local rather than global processes.”


7.  Khan et al., 2017 (Caribbean)

“Only Suriname and Guyana [Caribbean] exhibited higher RSL [relative sea level] than present (82% probability), reaching a maximum height of 1 m [above present] at 5.2 ka [5,200 years ago]. … Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka [1.9 meters per century] in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka [0.74 meters per century] in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka [12,000 to 8,000 years ago].”

8.  Meltzner et al., 2017  (Southeast Asia)

Half-metre sea-level fluctuations on centennial timescales from mid-Holocene corals of Southeast Asia … RSL [relative sea level]  history between 6850 and 6500 cal years BP that includes two 0.6 m fluctuations, with rates of RSL [relative sea level] change reaching 13±4 mm per year. … Here RSL [relative sea level] rose to an initial peak of +1.9 m [above present] at 6,720 cal years BP, then fell rapidly to a lowstand of +1.3 m, remaining at about that level for ∼100 years, before rising to a second peak at +1.7 m shortly after 6,550 cal years BP. Around 6,480 cal years BP, RSL appears to have fallen again to +1.3 m before rising to a third peak at +1.6 m or higher. … The peak rate of RSL rise, averaged over a 20-year running time window over the period of study (6,850–6,500 cal years BP), is +9.6±4.2 mm per year (2σ); the peak rate of RSL fall is −12.6±4.2 mm per year. … To put the ∼0.6 m mid-Holocene fluctuations in context, annual mean sea level in some modern tide-gauge records is seen to change by as much as 0.2–0.3 m on interannual timescales, and the interannual s.d. of sea surface height between 1979 and 2013 approached 0.1 m in some portions of the western Pacific.  The central dome of each microatoll grew during a period when RSL was high; RSL then fell rapidly, killing the upper portions of the corals; RSL then stabilized at a lower elevation, forming a series of low concentric annuli 0.6 m higher than present-day analogues; RSL [relative sea level] then rose 0.6 m in less than a century, allowing the coral to grow upward to 1.2 m higher than modern living corals.”

9.  Leonard, 2017 (Great Barrier Reef)

“The resultant palaeo-sea-level reconstruction revealed a rapid lowering of RSL of at least 0.4 m from 5500 to 5300 yBP following a RSL [relative sea level] highstand of ~0.75 m above present from ~6500 to 5500 yBP. RSL then returned to higher levels before a 2000-yr hiatus in reef flat corals after 4600 yBP. The RSL oscillations at 5500 yBP and 4600 yBP coincide with both substantial reduction in reef accretion and wide spread reef “turn-off”, respectively, thereby suggesting that oscillating sea level was the primary driver of reef shut down on the GBR.”

10.  Dechnik et al., 2017 (Tropical Western Pacific)

[I]t is generally accepted that relative sea level reached a maximum of 1–1.5 m above present mean sea level (pmsl) by ~7 ka [7,000 years ago] (Lewis et al., 2013).”

Germany’s DWD National Weather Service Slammed For “False Statements”

At the site of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) Josef Kowatsch and Stefan Kämpfe look at the frosty spells that typically occur in mid May, the so-called “Ice Saints“, which are widely reported on by the German media each year.

The German DWD national weather service, once a model for meteorology and climate, has over the years taken on a more activist global warming role, with some even claiming that it too has joined the propaganda army of the man-made global warming movement.

Not surprisingly, the DWD management has been claiming in the press that the so-called Eisheilige (Ice Saints) have been getting less intense over the years and that they may wind up disappearing altogether. Because of global warming!

Often typical in mid May, a weather pattern involving a high located over the North Atlantic near Iceland feeds blasts of polar air across Europe. This happened last year on May 14, 2016 – see following chart:

Figure 1: A high over Iceland pumped polar air (blue arrow) across Europe, 2016.

Unfortunately, the DWD has been spreading false information on Europe’s Ice Saints, the two authors at EIKE write, and that their article is to make German readers aware that the DWD top management has been “regularly telling complete falsehoods to the media over the past years in the week before may 11“.

Kowatsch and Kämpfe add.

The DWD Chairman has claimed that over all the previous years:

1) The “Ice saints” recently have been getting continuously warmer and that they will soon become the Hot Saints, which the press then gladly called the Sweating Saints, and

2) the Ice Saints have practically disappeared on account of climate warming.”

These claims of course aroused the suspicions of Kowatsch and Kämpfe, who decided to go back and look at the DWD’s own data. What they found is that the DWD had been misleading the media and the public with statements of warmer Ice Saints periods, and that in fact the very opposite has been occurring: the Ice Saints have been getting colder!

The following charts show the mean May 11-15 temperature for Potsdam, which is home of the notoriously alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), headed by global warming pope, Prof. Dr. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber.

Figure 1: The Ice Saints (May 11-15) for Potsdam, Germany since 1985 – going back more than 30 years. The mid-May frosty period has in fact been getting colder, not warmer as the DWD has claimed. Chart: Josef Kowatsch

Kowatsch and Kämpfe also present the trend for Dresden-Klotzsche, an official station of the DWD. It too shows a cooling trend. So why would the media be reporting that the “Ice Saints” have been disappearing? Baffling, to say the least.

Figure 2: DWD station Dresden Klotzsche. Blue curve shows the May 11-15 mean temperature with linear trend, 1985 – 2016. Brown shows the maximum high temperatures, gray shows the minimum temperatures and yellow shows the 5 cm surface temperature. Chart: Samuel Hochauf. For 2016 the mean temperature was 12.88°C, i.e. right on trend.

Kowatsch and Kämpfe summarize:

All four trend lines [in Figure 2] show that the Ice Saints have been getting colder since 1985, and not warmer. All four trend lines show that the statements from the DWD management are false. The Ice Saints in Germany are getting colder.

Kowatsch and Kämpfe also look at another DWD weather station, which has been in operation since 1996: Goldbach bei Bischofswerda. Here as well the Ice Saints have been getting steeply colder:

This makes it all the more puzzling that the DWD higher-ups would be using the terms “recently has been“, or “is currently” getting” when telling the public the Mid May frost periods are disappearing. Example here.

Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that this year the DWD spoekespeople should make major changes in the next press releases on the subject of mid May cold spells, suggesting: “The month of May is getting colder and the Ice Saints are getting even colder” and that he should add the remark: “The Ice Saints soon will be as cold as they were in the mid 20th century, some 60 years ago when scientists worried about a new ice age.”

Why are May cold snaps in Europe getting colder?

Kowatsch and Kämpfe suspect that solar activity may be a major factor in the may cooling, as it is known that it has an impact on large weather patterns over Europe. Solar activity has been dwindling over the past 2 decades. Another factor maybe the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which now appears to be coming down from its warm peak. CO2 obviously is having no effect at all.

Josef Kowatsch is an independent nature and climate researcher. Stefan Kämpfe is an agricultural engineer and also an independent nature and climate researcher.

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PS: This year it appears that the Ice Saints will be right on schedule, with even winter conditions (snow!) across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.

Data Analyses Show Rapid Global Surface Cooling, Growing Arctic Ice Thickness

Analyses show that global temperatures continue their rapid cooling trend, as Schneefan here writes. What follows are excerpts of his recent comprehensive analysis.

The cooling comes naturally in the wake of the moderate La Nina conditions that have ruled over the past months.

In April surface temperatures 2 meters above the ground plummeted as the following NCEP chart shows:

Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php

Global satellite temperature anomaly from the mean measured by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) rebounded a bit after a large March drop.

Source: UAH Global Temperature +0.27 deg. C.

Foremost the atmosphere above the oceans cooled the most during March, 2017. This is clearly depicted by the UAH: an anomaly of +0.29°K to +0.09°K compared to the WMO 1981-2010 mean.

Plot UAH satellite temperatures von UAH in the atmosphere 1500 m altitude (TLT) over the oceans. Note the rose colored curve shows the ARGO ocean buoys’ mean of the sea temperature to a depth of 2.5 m, with 37-month smoothing. Source: www.climate4you.com/, sea surface temperature estimates: UAH.

Global RSS satellite data show a rapid cooling since early 2016:

Moreover despite the powerful warming El Niño event of 2015/16, the unfalsified satellite data in 2016 show that no new significant global heat record was seen when compared to the El Niño year of 1998. We are talking about hundredths of a degree, completely within the boundaries of uncertainty.

No significant warming in 20 years

The powerful linear global cooling continued in April 2017 and will continue for the time being, Schneefan writes.

What does that mean for the global warming? Schneefan adds:

The IPCC global warming claimed by the climate models has been missing for almost 20 years. And that despite the constantly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations!”

And just days ago, Kenneth Richards here showed that there hasn’t been any warming over the entire southern hemisphere at all. The warming of the past decades is not even global.

What is now becoming glaringly obvious is that the IPCC has wildly overestimated its projected global warming for the future. When the IPCC models from the various IPCC reports are compared to the observations, the result gets vividly illustrated by the following chart showing the satellite observed temperatures from January 2001 to June 2016:

The Speedometer for the 15 years 4 months January 2001 to April 2016 shows the [1.1, 4.2] C°/century-equivalent range of global warming rates (red/orange) that IPCC’s 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports predicted should be happening by now, against real-world warming (green) equivalent to <0.5 C°/century over the period, taken as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite global lower-troposphere temperature datasets. Quelle: http://joannenova.com.au/2016/05/monckton-ipcc-climate-models-speeding-out-of-control-compared-to-real-world/

The Global Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC’s least prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001 predictions, while the satellite datasets show less warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 to 2001. Later IPCC predictions are too recent to be reliably testable. Source : Is the Reuters “news” agency committing fraud?

Massive Arctic ice thickness growth

The growth in so-called multiyear Arctic sea ice has been considerable over the past nine years. The Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea had little thick multiyear ice back in February 2008. But by February 2017 there was a lot. Massive Growth In Thick Arctic Sea Ice:

Source: DMI Modelled ice thickness, Real Climate Science.

Also Greenland has seen impressive gains in surface snow and ice mass. Kirye at Twitter posted the following chart which shows recent record surface mass gain for 2017:

Source: DMI.

If the Arctic is the climate canary in the coal mine, as many alarmists used to like claiming, then we probably ought to start worrying about cooling.

 

Extreme Market Distortion: German Power Prices Could Be Negative 1000 Hours A Year!

Germany’s Energiewende is faltering badly.

At least that’s what Christoph Eisenring of the Zurich based daily NZZ writes here, claiming the Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) is a false model for the rest of the world.

The truth is that the Energiewende is on the same path as the construction of the Berlin BER airport – racing down the highway to total debacle – something that everyone is doing their damnedest to ignore and wishing it would just go away.

Moreover, Eisenring writes, it is causing “collateral damage” to Germany’s neighboring countries, as huge supply fluctuations threaten to destabilize their grids and electricity markets.

Only 1% of rated capacity!

The Energiewende has led to some of the most expensive electricity prices in the world, and it is not difficult to understand why. Eisenring uses the example of German power production on January 24, 2017 when at 7 a.m. German demand was at 70 gigawatts but the country’s 84 gigawatts of installed solar and wind capacity were putting out a mere 0.8 gigawatts, i.e. only about 1% of capacity.

That means doubling or even ten-folding German solar and wind capacity would still not be enough at times. That in turn means that Germany is forced to run two separate systems: a renewable one and a conventional system. “That’s costly,” Eisenring comments.

Highly inefficient

The highly erratic supply of wind and sun means the conventional power plants are constantly being slowed down or cranked up in a desparate race to keep the grid stable. Eisenring illustrates:

It is as if you would constantly be putting on the brakes and accelerating on the highway while driving from Bern to Zürich: It is a highly inefficient way of production.”

Adding more renewables is only going to mean more hours of oversupply when the wind blows and the sun shines, Eisenring reminds. It will lead to even greater inefficiency and instability.

1000 hours of negative prices possible annually

To unload the excess power, wholesale prices have been increasingly falling into the negative range, which means the grid operator has to pay buyers to “buy” the unwanted power. Eisenring reports that last year German power prices on the wholesale exchange markets were negative for 97 hours, which is close to 2 hours a week. But that figure will only grown as more wind and solar come online. Eisenring writes:

However, there are estimates that this could be the case for 1000 hours by 2022.”

That comes out to be about 20 hours a week. No market can survive that.

Another problem, Eisenring writes, is the havoc that Germany’s bucking bronco power grid is wreaking on the grids of neighboring countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, France, Austria or Switzerland, to name a few – all caused by the “exorbitant subsidization of renewables.”

€520 billion per year by 2025!

Germany’s Energiewende and its high costs are hammering consumers, many of whom are no longer able to pay their electric bills and are thus losing power by the tens of thousands of households. Eisenring cites one study that estimates the Energiewende cost Germany 150 billion euros in 2015 alone, and by 2025 it could cost 520 billion euros.

Storage still a pipe dream

Storing surplus electricity is also currently unfeasible, noting that German renowned economist Hans-Werner Sinn calculated 125 million Tesla automobile batteries would be needed. Yet, even such a huge quantity of batteries still would not be enough to allow wintertime driving, Sinn calculates!

Eisenring also writes that so far Germany’s Energiewendehas led to very little protection of the environment, as much of the CO2 emissions have been offshored and have fallen only 6% in the electricity sector since the feed-in act was enacted in 2000.

Eisenring writes that Germany will not meet its 2020 40%-emissions-reductions target. Currently the country has reduced emissions by 27% since 1990, but most of that coming from shutting down the shoddy old industries of former communist East Germany after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

Government still insisting it’s “our success story”

Yet, this glaring failure has not made any impression on the German government, as it recently released a propaganda brochure extoling the virtues of the Energiewende, calling it “our success story“, “sustainable and safe“, affordable and plannable” and “reliable and intelligent“.

Eisenring comments on the government’s propagandist self-assessment:

With this assessment Berlin is quite alone.”

Early this year Germany’s federal budget office determined that “the Ministry of Economics had in fact no overview of the financial impacts of the Energiewende” and that policymakers had “underestimated the impacts of renewable energy on the entire energy system“.

 

There Has Been No ‘Global’ Warming In The Southern Hemisphere, Equatorial Regions

Half The Planet Has Not Cooperated

With The ‘Global’ Warming Narrative


According to overseers of the long-term instrumental temperature data, the Southern Hemisphere record is “mostly made up”.  This is due to an extremely limited number of available measurements both historically and even presently from the south pole to the equatorial regions.

Below is an actual e-mail conversation between the Climate Research Unit’s Phil Jones and climate scientist Tom Wigley.  Phil Jones is the one who is largely responsible for making up the 1850-present temperature data for the Met Office in the UK (HadCRUT).



According to Peterson and Vose (1997), in 1901 the representation of maximum/minimum instrumental temperature stations in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) up through the equatorial regions (South Asia, North Africa, Central America) was negligible.  Only coastal Australia had substantial instrumental representation in the early 20th century.   The rest of the temperature data for the SH and equatorial regions needed to be made up to extend “global” instrumental temperature data back to 1850.

 

To measure the historical temperature record for the bottom half of the planet, then, scientists use proxy evidence from such sources as ice cores or alkenones to reconstruct past climates.  When they do that, a common theme emerges.  The proxy evidence used in temperature reconstructions suggests that there has been no significant changes in temperature from Antarctica to the regions near or just above the equator in the last few centuries.  In other words, half the globe has not been following along with the anthropogenic “global” warming narrative.

Listed below are about 3 dozen graphical reconstructions indicating no obvious warming trend during the last few hundred years of assumed anthropogenic influence on surface temperatures.


Delong et al., 2012


Ault et al., 2013

 


Wei et al., 2015


Rosenthal et al., 2017




Fischel et al., 2017


Shevenell et al., 2011


South America


de Jong et al., 2013


von Gunten et al., 2009


De Jong et al., 2016

“[T]he reconstruction…shows that recent warming (until AD 2009) is not exceptional in the context of the past century. For example, the periods around AD 1940 and from AD 1950–1955 were warmer. … [B]ased on tree ring analyses from the upper tree limit in northern Patagonia, Villalba et al. (2003) found that the period just before AD 1950 was substantially warmer than more recent decades.”


Silveira and Pezzi, 2014



Sepúlveda et al., 2009 


Shevenell et al., 2011


South Africa


Tyson et al., 2000

“The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1°C cooler in Little Ice Age [AD 1300 to 1800] and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the medieval warm period [AD 1000 to 1300].”

“It was variable throughout the millennium, but considerably more so during the warming of the eleventh to thirteenth centuries.  The lowest temperature events recorded during the Little Ice Age in South Africa are coeval with the Maunder and Sporer Minima in solar irradiance.  The medieval warming is shown to have coincided with … the Medieval Maximum in solar radiation.”


Sánchez-Sesma, 2015


Zinke et al., 2014



Dupont et al., 2004


Weldeab et al, 2005


Australia, New Zealand


O’Donnell et al., 2016


Tyson et al., 2000


de Frietas et al., 2015

 


South Asia


Sunkara and Tiwari, 2016


Yan et al., 2015


Fan et al., 2009 


Munz et al., 2015


Zinke et al., 2016


Thapa et al., 2015

[T]emperature in Central Asia and northern Hemisphere revert back towards cooling trends in the late twentieth century.”


Southern Ocean


Jones et al., 2016



Markle et al., 2017


Bostock et al., 2013


Foster et al., 2016


Antarctica


Stenni et al., 2017


Schneider et al., 2006


Miles et al., 2013


Mayewski et al., 2017


Turner et al., 2016


Fudge et al., 2016