NoTricksZone: "Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" – Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English

The List Grows – Now 85 Scientific Papers Assert CO2 Has A Minuscule Effect On The Climate

By Kenneth Richard on 10. December 2018

Within the last few years, over 30 papers have been added to our compilation of scientific papers that find the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 concentration changes is low to negligible.

Link: 85 Scientific Papers – Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity

A few of the papers published in 2018 that were added to the list are provided below.

Liu and Chen, 2018

“CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally(mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change.”

“Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect: temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R~2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2. However, the R~2 shows much less significance (mean R~2=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature (mean R~2=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture: human emission drives global warming.”

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Posted in Misc. | 11 Responses

Global Warming Activists Speechless In Katowice As Yellow Vest Protests Spread Europe-Wide With Unexpected Intensity

By P Gosselin on 9. December 2018

The Swiss online Basel BAZ news site reported yesterday how the Yellow Vest fossil fuel tax protests have spread across Belgium and into the Netherlands, and so threaten to become a European phenomenon.

Previously it was thought that a move away from fossil fuels and higher taxes on them were the will of the people in Europe, and so citizens would readily accept higher taxes on them in order to get society to adopt the lean green energy diet. However that has suddenly turned out to be a gross misinterpretation by policymakers and activists.

Climate activists speechless – devastating signal

As the Yellow Vest protests intensify and spread, activists and delegates in Poland find themselves speechless as the begin to realize that a comprehensive transitioning over to green energies is not going to happen any time soon because their proposals are unmistakably generating anger. The signal to the world from France could not be more devastating to the climate protection movement.

The French have sent a loud and clear message.

The BAZ writes that the European governments are so spooked by the anger that in Brussels institutions such as the EU Commission, the EU Counsel and the EU Parliament had to be completely sealed off because of the demonstration. Police arrested some 100 protesters early as a preventive measure to keep the protest from escalating out of control.

Fuel taxes hurt the poor

Also police in the Netherlands sealed off Den Haag against protesters. The BAZ reported:

Several hundred people on Saturday also protested at the Yellow Vest demonstrations in the Netherlands against what they saw as the growing gap between rich and poor.”

Egregious arrogance, hypocrisy

One reason for the elevated level of anger is the arrogance and hypocrisy EU policymakers exhibit as they rush to impose green energies onto their population. While Eurocrats jet-set from one rescue-conference to another and lead the life of luxury on the taxpayers’ dime, they demand citizens tighten their energy and financial belts and go without.

One egregious example of such arrogance comes from the United States. The Washington Examiner here reports how Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders spent $300,000 on private jet flights (in a single month!)while demanding citizens refrain from using fossil fuels and forgo their already modest lifestyles. The Examiner writes:

While private jets are a common tool for political campaigners, the same day the massive check was written to a private jet company, Sanders issued a call to arms to take on greenhouse gas emissions.”

Meanwhile President Donald Trump wondered if it was not time “to end the ridiculous and extremely expensive Paris Agreement.”

Since the protests began, France has decided to put off the high taxes on diesel and gasoline fuel for the time being. Expect other European countries to crank down their fuel tax rhetoric as a result.

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Surprise: CO2 Warming Signal Absent in Japan …Number of “Cold Days” Rising Over Past 30 Years

By P Gosselin on 8. December 2018

By Kirye

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is supposed to be trapping heat and thus warming the global temperature.

But when we look at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) statistics from my home country of Japan, one does not find any such warming over the recent decades.

I looked at the number of so-called cold days in Tokyo, i.e. days on which the thermometer dropped to 0°C and colder. Surprisingly over the past 30 years the trend has been more cold days, and not less:

Data source: JMA

Next I looked at the rural station of Miyama near Kyoto. This station shows a decreasing number of cold days trend since the data there began:

Data source: JMA

However, when we look at the past 34 years, a period when experts said in the late 1980s we’d see great warming, the opposite has in fact occurred:

Data source: JMA

The number of cold days at Miyama has since been on the rise. And if I started the chart at 1989 (30 years), the upward trend would be even more impressive.

Now moving far north to Hokkaido to the station of Suttsu, we also find the trend is the same over the past 30 years: we are seeing more cold days, and not less as we’d expect from a warming planet:

Data source: JMA

Moving to Kochu Prefecture to Murotomisaki station, here as well we find no downward trend for cold days. Cold days are on the rise:

Data source: JMA

Also the station of Tottori has been seeing an upward trend in the number of cold days over the past 30 years:

Data source: JMA.

90% no warming!

Of course over the past 200 years there has been a long term warming as the planet climbed out of the Little Ice Age. But overall over the past 3 decades, Japan has been seeing an increase in cold days. This should not come as a surprise because recently we found out that 90% of all rural sited stations in Japan have shown no warming trend, or even cooling, over the past 20 years.

The data show here has been no warming in Japan, and leaders need to finally acknowledge this.

Obviously natural factors are overwhelming CO2’s (modest) greenhouse effect.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature | 8 Responses

Coming Bloodbath – Electrification Of Automotive Power-Trains To Wipe Out 114,000 German Jobs, New Analysis Shows

By P Gosselin on 7. December 2018

German business daily Handelsblatt here reports on a new study that suggests up to 114,000 German automotive related jobs could disappear should the switchover to electric mobility take place as planned.

According to research by the German Labor Market and Occupational Research Institute (IAB) and its publication titled “Electric Mobility 2035“, the study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of electrification of the powertrain in automobiles (e-mobility).

The researchers find that over the long run, e-mobility will lead to a lower GDP and employment level, and that the change in technology may lead “to 114,000 job cuts by the end of 2035”. The report adds: “The whole economy will lose about 0.6 % of the GDP. In the scenario we assume a share of only 23 percent of electric compared to all cars in 2035.”

The following chart (Figure 28) shows the job losses as to industry sectors:

Chart shows change in number of German workers. The most workers will be lost in the vehicle production. Source: QuBe Project, Figure 28.

The findings also say the electrification of automotive power-trains will especially affect highly skilled workers negatively as the demand for specialist and expert activities will decrease with a time delay. Electric vehicles entail much simpler technology, which can be be cheaply produced in emerging countries.

According to the IAB, today less than 5% of German electric cars are imported:

Scenario for the share of imports for electric cars, Source: QuBe Project, Figure 12.

But by 2022, the share of imported electric cars will jump to 40% and then to about 65% by 2035. If true, this means a devastating blow to Germany’s mighty automotive industry – the backbone of the German economy.

Some experts project that buying an electric car will be as straightforward as buying a household appliance, thus eliminating a variety of highly skilled technical jobs. The scale of the job losses that threaten Germany are indeed highly plausible.

But, as is the case with many forecasts looking at the future 15 years ahead, the IAB notes that their scenario “includes a lot of assumptions where further research is necessary”.

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics | 27 Responses

Scientists: ‘Falsified’ Climate Models ‘Do Not Employ Known Physics Fully’…‘Don’t Agree With Reality’

By Kenneth Richard on 6. December 2018

Many new scientific papers affirm climate model results conflict with one another, diverge from observations, and aren’t fully rooted in established physics.

Image Source: Essex and Tsonis, 2018

Climate models are predicated on the assumption that greenhouse gases exert fundamental control on the Earth’s climate system. That’s why for decades it’s been predicted that disaster will befall the planet as a consequence of rising CO2 emissions.

Image Source: Associated Press (1989)

And yet contrary to how they are popularly portrayed, climate models do not fully employ the laws of physics in their representations (Essex and Tsonis, 2018). This is likely why climate model outputs are (a) often widely different from one another and (b) frequently diverge from real-world observations.

We Lack Understanding of Climate Mechanisms

In contrast with governmental (the United Nations’) manufactured framework of certainty, scientists are increasingly suggesting we have yet to adequately understand fundamental processes and mechanisms in the Earth’s climate system.

“[W]e can build and run complex models of the Earth system, but we do not have adequate enough understanding of the processes and mechanisms to be able to quantitatively evaluate the predictions and projections they produce, or to understand why different models give different answers.” (Collins et al. 2018)

“[C]limate changes in polar areas remain difficult to predict, which indicates that the underlying mechanisms of polar amplification remain uncertain and debatable.” (Ding et al., 2018)

Unfalsifiable Models

Furthermore, because climate models aren’t subjected to the “hard” science standard of falsification, they are necessarily presented to the non-skeptical public as unfalsifiable. In other words, when climate models don’t agree with real-world observations, they aren’t assumed to be wrong, or worthy of disposal. Instead, they are suggested to merely need a little re-tuning.

The refusal to discard climate models that conflict with observations is apparently rooted in politics. Kundzewicz et al. (2018) point out that the “hard” science standard that says results should be quantitatively validated with a measured degree of certainty before formulating policy initiatives is deemed “unrealistic and counterproductive” today. That’s why climate modeling thrives in the modern “soft” political world – a realm where the rigors of observation and falsification — the scientific method — need not apply.

“[I]n the past, science was assumed to provide ‘hard’ results in quantitative form, in contrast to ‘soft’ determinants of politics, that were interest-driven and value-laden. Yet, the traditional assumption of the certainty of scientific information is now recognized as unrealistic and counterproductive.” (Kundzewicz et al., 2018)

Climate Models Don’t Agree With Reality

Problematically, even when they are re-tuned, climate models still yield widely divergent outputs both from one another and compared to observational evidence.

Many new scientific papers have been published in recent months that document the failure of climate models to simulate the Earth’s climate. A sampling of 10 peer-reviewed papers from 2018 are highlighted below.

In several cases, scientists have reported that none of the modern-day climate model results are consistent with real-world observations. In some cases the models yield opposite results (i.e., warming instead of cooling, rising instead of falling, etc.).

It is increasingly being recognized that climate models “not only don’t agree with each other when it comes to dynamics, they also don’t agree with reality” (Essex and Tsonis, 2018).

1. Essex and Tsonis, 2018

• “Climate models do not and cannot employ known physics fully. Thus, they are falsified, a priori. Incomplete physics and the finite representation of computers can induce false instabilities.”

• “The standard model of physics, for example, is subject to falsification. If it fails to make correct predictions in controlled experiments, it is false. Projections are not good enough there. Even in astrophysics, models explain phenomena that are normally subject to falsification through broad questions asked about multiple occurrences of similar physical circumstances, even in highly data-starved contexts. What makes climate models fundamentally different is that they are presented as being unfalsifiable. Even when they deviate from actual observations, they are not superseded by a better competing model. Deviations simply invite some retuning. Moreover instead of replacement by better models retuning leads to all models becoming more alike.”

• “[A]re there propositions that contemporary models make, crucial to their own objectives, that are falsifiable? Is there any physical test possible that would force us to conclude that they are unable to achieve their own objectives, thus requiring a rethinking of basic assumptions? This paper addresses this question. But it is a question that cannot be comprehended in the face of many widely-held misconceptions about the direct meteorologically based projection modeling of climate. Foremost among these misconceptions is that climate models are full implementations of known, mature physics. This false conception can lead to the conclusion that falsification is irrelevant because models are simply an execution of previously known correct physics.”

• “The empirical nature of large climate models can be clearly seen in their diverse outputs. If they followed the laws of physics in their entirety, they would all produce the same results under the same conditions. But they do not. In a recent study, the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) models [2] were considered and a detailed comparison at the dynamics level, using an approach involving climate networks [Steinhaeuser and Tsonis, 2013] was performed. It was found that the models not only don’t agree with each other when it comes to dynamics, they also don’t agree with reality.”

2. Collins et al., 2018

• “Here there is a dynamical gap in our understanding. While we have conceptual models of how weather systems form and can predict their evolution over days to weeks, we do not have theories that can adequately explain the reasons for an extreme cold or warm, or wet or dry, winter at continental scales. More importantly, we do not have the ability to credibly predict such states.”

• “Likewise, we can build and run complex models of the Earth system, but we do not have adequate enough understanding of the processes and mechanisms to be able to quantitatively evaluate the predictions and projections they produce, or to understand why different models give different answers.

• “The global warming ‘hiatus’ provides an example of a climate event potentially related to inter-basin teleconnections. While decadal climate variations are expected, the magnitude of the recent event was unforeseen. A decadal period of intensified trade winds in the Pacific and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been identified as a leading candidate mechanism for the global slowdown in warming.”

3. Kundzewicz et al., 2018

• “Climate models need to be improved before they can be effectively used for adaptation planning and design. Substantial reduction of the uncertainty range would require improvement of our understanding of processes implemented in models and using finer resolution of GCMs and RCMs. However, important uncertainties are unlikely to be eliminated or substantially reduced in near future (cf. Buytaert et al., 2010). Uncertainty in estimation of climate sensitivity (change of global mean temperature, corresponding to doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration) has not decreased considerably over last decades. Higher resolution of climate input for impact models requires downscaling (statistical or dynamic) of GCM outputs, adding further uncertainty.”

• “[C]limate models do not currently simulate the water cycle at sufficiently fine resolution for attribution of catchment-scale hydrological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. It is expected that climate models and impact models will become better integrated in the future.”

• “Calibration and validation of a hydrological model should be done before applying it for climate change impact assessment, to reduce the uncertainty of results. Yet, typically, global hydrological models are not calibrated and validated. … Model-based projections of climate change impact on water resources can largely differ. If this is the case, water managers cannot have confidence in an individual scenario or projection for the future. Then, no robust, quantitative, information can be delivered and adaptation procedures need to be developed which use identified projection ranges and uncertainty estimates. Moreover, there are important, nonclimatic, factors affecting future water resources.”

• “As noted by Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990), in the past, science was assumed to provide “hard” results in quantitative form, in contrast to “soft” determinants of politics, that were interest-driven and value-laden. Yet, the traditional assumption of the certainty of scientific information is now recognized as unrealistic and counterproductive. Policy-makers have to make “hard” decisions, choosing between conflicting options (with commitments and stakes being the primary focus), using “soft” scientific information that is bound with considerable uncertainty. Uncertainty has been policitized in that policy-makers have their own agendas that can include the manipulation of uncertainty. Parties in a policy debate may invoke uncertainty in their arguments selectively, for their own advantage.”

4. Lacour et al., 2018

• “The representation of clouds over Greenland is a central concern for the models because clouds impact ice-sheet surface melt. We find that over Greenland, most of the models have insufficient cloud cover during summer. In addition, all models create too few non-opaque liquid containing clouds optically thin enough to let direct solar radiation reach the surface (-1% to -3.5% at the ground level). Some models create too few opaque clouds. In most climate models, the cloud properties biases identified over all Greenland also apply at Summit proving the value of the ground observatory in model evaluation.”

• “At Summit, climate models underestimate cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the surface, especially in summer. The primary driver of the summer CRE biases compared to observations is the underestimation of the cloud cover in summer (-46% to -21%), which leads to an underestimated longwave radiative warming effect (CRELW = -35.7 W m-2 to -13.6 W m-2 compared to the ground observations) and an underestimated shortwave cooling effect (CRESW = +1.5 W m-2 to +10.5 W m-2 compared to the ground observations). Overall, the simulated [modeled] clouds do not radiatively warm the surface as much as observed.”

• “Of particular importance, clouds can trigger surface melt over a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Bennartz et al. 2013; Solomon et al. 2017). Greenland surface melting increases non-linearly with increasing temperatures due to positive feedbacks between cloud microphysics, surface melting and surface albedo (Fettweis et al. 2013) and modulates the ice sheet mass balance (Van Tricht et al. 2016; Hofer et al. 2017).”

• “Every model included in this study underestimates the net cloud radiative surface warming in summer. … [O]nly few general circulation models are able to represent the surface of the Greenland ice sheet (Cullather et al. 2014). … Since the overall cloud radiative warming is underestimated in the models, we may expect an underestimate of Greenland surface melting. However, misrepresentation of clouds is not the only contributor to biases in the modeled surface melting.”

None of the climate models match the observations

5. Kravtsov et al., 2018

• “[D]eviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent “pause” in global warming, have received considerable attention. Such decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends are common throughout the twentieth century, and their causes are still poorly understood.”

• “While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using current generation of climate models.”

6. Kam et al., 2018

• “In summary, there is marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic contribution toward earlier WSCT [winter-spring center time] in parts of North America. The regions with strongest relative indication of an anthropogenic contribution in our analysis include: the north-central U.S. (Region 3); the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada (Region 1); and extreme northeastern U.S. and Canadian Maritimes (Region 6).”

• “However, in none of the regions examined do a majority of the nine CMIP5 models examined robustly support a detectable attribution of an earlier (decreasing) WSCT trend to anthropogenic forcing. At some level, the difficulty in detecting a climate change signal comes down to low signal to noise ratio (Ziegler et al. 2005). Apparently, for the variable at hand, the climate change influence is not very large compared to interannual/interdecadal variability noise.”

7. Agarwal and Wettlaufer, 2018

• “The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea-ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multifractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to biannual time scales the ice extent exhibits white noise structure, and there is a decadal scale trend associated with the decay of the ice cover.”

• “It is shown that (i) there is a large inter-model variability in the time scales extracted from the models, (ii) none of the models exhibits the decadal time scales found in the satellite observations, (iii) five of the 21 models [24%] examined exhibit the observed white noise structure, and (iv) the multi-model ensemble mean exhibits neither the observed white noise structure nor the observed decadal trend.”

8. Luo et al., 2018

• “Over the recent three decades sea surface temperate (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La Niña-like cooling. Based on the assumption of ‘perfect’ models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observation.”

• “Based on the total 126 realizations of the 38 CMIP5 model Historical simulations, the results show that none of the 126 model historical realizations reproduce the intensity of the observed eastern Pacific cooling (Fig. 1d) and only one simulation produces a weak cooling (−0.007 °C per decade).”

9. Hanna et al., 2018

• “Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models“

• “Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream … this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies … as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.”

10. Scanlon et al., 2018

• “The models underestimate the large decadal (2002–2014) trends in water storage relative to GRACE satellites, both decreasing trends related to human intervention and climate and increasing trends related primarily to climate variations. The poor agreement between models and GRACE underscores the challenges remaining for global models to capture human or climate impacts on global water storage trends.”

• “Increasing TWSA [total water storage anomalies] trends are found primarily in nonirrigated basins, mostly in humid regions, and may be related to climate variations. Models also underestimate median GRACE increasing trends (1.6–2.1 km3/y) by up to a factor of ∼8 in GHWRMs [global hydrological and water resource models] (0.3–0.6 km3/y).”

• “Underestimation of GRACE-derived TWSA increasing trends is much greater for LSMs [global land surface models], with four of the five LSMs [global land surface models] yielding opposite trends (i.e., median negative rather than positive trends).”

• “Increasing GRACE trends are also found in surrounding basins, with most models yielding negative trends. Models greatly underestimate the increasing trends in Africa, particularly in southern Africa.”

• “TWSA trends from GRACE in northeast Asia are generally increasing, but many models show decreasing trends, particularly in the Yenisei.”

• “[T]he magnitude of the estimated climate contribution to GMSL [global mean sea level] is twice that of the human contribution and opposite in sign.”

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Posted in Climate Politics, Models | 38 Responses

France 2.0? Police Brutally Beat Protesters As German Environment Minister Aims To Boost Fossil Energy Prices

By P Gosselin on 5. December 2018

Is Germany blindly following President Emmanuel Macron in agitating its citizens with plans to impose higher fuel and heating oil taxes?

Pay the carbon tax.

Pay it.

We will keep beating you until you agree to pay it.

Pay. The. Carbon. Tax. pic.twitter.com/8dYuchyVIP

— Ezra Levant 🍁 (@ezralevant) December 5, 2018

Video in tweet above: French policy brutally beat French citizens protesting higher fuel taxes.

German flagship daily Die Welt here recently reported Germany’s Environment Minister Svenja Schulze has a plan for the country to meet its 2030 climate targets.

According to Die Welt, it involves single sectors such as transportation, agriculture or energy having to comply with “binding requirements to save CO2.” Die Welt writes the proposal would make heating oil and diesel fuel expensive.

Recently Minister Schulze said in a speech her Ministry is cooperating with the powerful Ministry of Finance. However, stiff opposition is already mounting, and denials are surfacing. According to Die Welt:”‘There are no thoughts about introducing a new pricing on CO2,’ a spokesman for the Finance Ministry said on Friday.”

Schulze says it’s time to tax

Die Welt reports that Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party so far has rejected applying taxes to CO2. But Schulze remains insistent: “Are we serious about climate protection or do we continue muddling through and arguing about each and every tonne of CO2?”

Climate and environmental protection activists see taxes on CO2 as an effective instrument to achieve reductions. However, the loudness of the protests in France and Belgium appears to have taken German and European lawmakers by surprise, and so they will likely move with far greater caution.

Proponents feel that a tax on CO2 would help make electric mobility more attractive. Die Welt writes that the government’s aim is to have 65% of the electricity supply come from renewable energies by 2030.

Macron backs down

In France, President Macron is facing a serious backlash from citizens for proposing higher taxes on energy. Macron has since been forced to put the tax hikes on hold in response to the unexpectedly raucous uprising across the country.

Die Welt writes “Germany has given up on its 2020 climate target, but hopes to reach a 55% reduction by 2030.” So far Germany is about halfway there.

Most of the German CO2 reductions came in the wake of shutting down rundown, former communist East German industry in the wake of the 1990 German reunification.

Over the past 9 years, however, Germany has not reduced CO2 equivalent emissions at all. As the French show, making targets is easy but reaching them is a very different story.

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics | 30 Responses

Japan Says ‘Sayōnara’ To Warming… Unadjusted Data Show No Signs Of Any Significant Warming At All

By P Gosselin on 4. December 2018

By Kirye

Data have been showing that Japan has been seeing a warming hiatus going back 20 years, and at many locations, even 30 years. This is the case when using the unadjusted data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

The meteorological autumn has ended and we can plot a sampling of the latest mean November and autumn temperatures for my island country of Japan. The following chart shows the temperature anomaly for November mean temperature for the past 16 years, a period that Dr. Kevin Trenberth says is long enough to start talking about a trend:

Data source: JMA

The mean temperature for autumn (Sep-Oct-Nov) in Japan over the past 21 years is also showing a modest downward trend:

Data: JMA

In the northern city of Sapporo in the Hokkaido Prefecture, the November mean temperature has shown no trend in 31 years:

Sapporo (Hokkaido Prefecture) Data: JMA.

My home city of Tokyo also has not seen any warming for November over the past 30 years, despite media always declaring that the planet is warming more rapidly. The following data show a flat trend:

Tokyo mean November temperature have been flat for more than 30 years. Data: JMA.

Going all the way to other, southern end of Japan, in the tropics, we also find no warming – but instead some cooling for the November mean temperature:

Data: here.

By now some warmist readers may be asking to see the mean annual temperature trend for all of Japan over the past 2 decades, which I present to you here:

Data source JMA.

The above chart shows only a very modest warming since 1997, a period where the public has been only hearing and seeing headlines of rapid warming. But as the trend shows, the warming is statistically negligible, and is likely due to the natural natural El Nino event of 2016.

To summarize, Japanese citizens can say ‘sayonara’ to all the scary warming they were told to worry about over the past 2 decades. Nothing unusual has happened, or is happening.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature | 28 Responses

New Research: Methane Emissions From Livestock Have No Detectable Effect On The Climate

By Kenneth Richard on 3. December 2018

Agrobiologist and scientific researcher Dr. Albrecht Glatzle, author of over 100 scientific papers and two textbooks, has published research that shows “there is no scientific evidence, whatsoever, that domestic livestock could represent a risk for the Earth’s climate” and that the “warming potential of anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions has been exaggerated”.

Image Source: Glatzle, 2018

Glatzle, 2018

Domestic Livestock and Its
Alleged Role in Climate Change

Abstract:

“Our key conclusion is there is no need for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and even less so for livestock-born emissions, to explain climate change. Climate has always been changing, and even the present warming is most likely driven by natural factors. The warming potential of anthropogenic GHG emissions has been exaggerated, and the beneficial impacts of manmade CO2 emissions for nature, agriculture, and global food security have been systematically suppressed, ignored, or at least downplayed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and other UN (United Nations) agencies. Furthermore, we expose important methodological deficiencies in IPCC and FAO (Food Agriculture Organization) instructions and applications for the quantification of the manmade part of non-CO2-GHG emissions from agro-ecosystems. However, so far, these fatal errors inexorably propagated through scientific literature. Finally, we could not find a clear domestic livestock fingerprint, neither in the geographical methane distribution nor in the historical evolution of mean atmospheric methane concentration.”

Key Points:

1. “In order to get the effective manmade part of the emissions from managed ecosystems, one has to subtract the baseline emissions of the respective native ecosystems or of the pre-climate changemanaged ecosystems from those of today’s agro-ecosystems (Figure 4). Omitting this correction leads to a systematic overestimation of farm-born non-CO2 GHG emissions. Scientific publications generally do not take this consideration into account, as farm-born CH4 and N2O emissions are consistently interpreted at a 100% level as an additional anthropogenic GHG source, just like fossil fuel-born CO2. As the mentioned IPCC guidelines [2007] are taken for the ultimate reference, this severe methodological deficiency propagated through scientific literature.”

2. “Dung patches concentrate the nitrogen ingested from places scattered across the pasture. Nichols et al. [2016] found no significant differences between emission factors from the patches and the rest of the pasture, which means the same amount of nitrous oxide is emitted whether or not the herbage passes livestock’s intestines. However, the IPCC and FAO do consider mistakenly all nitrous oxide leaking from manure as livestock-born and therefore manmade.”

3. “Between 1990 and 2005, the world cattle population rose by more than 100 million head (according to FAO statistics). During this time, atmospheric methane concentration stabilized completely. These empirical observations show that livestock is not a significant player in the global methane budget [Glatzle, 2014]. This appreciation has been corroborated by Schwietzke et al. [2016] who suggested that methane emissions from fossil fuel industry and natural geological seepage have been 60–110% greater than previously thought.”

4. “When looking to the global distribution of average methane concentrations as measured by ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) [Schneising et al., 2009] and the geographical distribution of domestic animal density, respectively [Steinfeld et al., 2006], no discernible relationship between both criteria was found [Glatzle, 2014].”

5. “Although the most recent estimates of yearly livestock-born global methane emissions came out 11% higher than earlier estimates [Wolf et al., 2017], we still cannot see any discernible livestock fingerprint in the global methane distribution (Figure 6).”

6. “The idea of a considerable livestock contribution to the global methane budget relies on theoretical bottom-up calculations. Even in recent studies, e.g., [Mapfumo et al., 2018], just the emissions per animal are measured and multiplied by the number of animals. Ecosystemic interactions and baselines over time and space are generally ignored [Glatzle, 2014]. Although quite a number of publications, such as the excellent most recent FCRN report (Food Climate Research Network) [2017], do discuss extensively ecosystemic sequestration potentials and natural sources of GHGs, they do not account for baseline emissions from the respective native ecosystems when assessing manmade emissions of non-CO2 GHGs from managed ecosystems. This implies a systematic overestimation of the warming potential, particularly when assuming considerable climate sensitivity to GHG emissions.”

7. “[W]e could not find a domestic livestock fingerprint, neither in the geographical methane distribution nor in the historical evolution of the atmospheric methane concentration. Consequently, in science, politics, and the media, climate impact of anthropogenic GHG emissions has been systematically overstated. Livestock-born GHG emissions have mostly been interpreted isolated from their ecosystemic context, ignoring their negligible significance within the global balance. There is no scientific evidence, whatsoever, that domestic livestock could represent a risk for the Earth’s climate.”

8. “[E]ven LA Chefs Column [Zwick, 2018], in spite of assuming a major global warming impact of methane, came to the conclusion: ‘When methane is put into a broader rather than a reductive context, we all have to stop blaming cattle (‘cows’) for climate change.'”

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Posted in Agriculture, Emissions | 17 Responses

German Wind Turbines Go Up In Flames, Or Simply Collapse, …Federal Government Refuses To Investigate

By P Gosselin on 2. December 2018

German wind turbines are mysteriously collapsing, catching fire, but authorities refuse technical monitoring and mandatory inspections.

North German NDR public television here reports how days ago 50 fire fighters were called to the scene of a wind turbine fire. All they could do was extinguish the debris once it had fell to the ground.

The reason for the fire occurring last Thursday in the community of Holtriem in the district of Wittmund is unknown. But it is the second occurrence at this wind park over the past month. The fire is reported to have broken out in the tubine’s generator are, some 60 meters above the ground, and making it impossible for fire fighters to reach.

NDR reports that this is “already the third turbine fire in Lower Saxony in 2018.

Whether the fire was caused by a design defect or inadequate maintenance remains unknown, and answers are not expected any time soon.

The German Technical Inspection Association TÜV has been calling for beef up wind park monitoring and mandatory inspections of wind turbines However the NDR reports, “The German federal government and the German Wind Industry Association (BWE) reject the request.” Many turbines are now more than 15 years old.

Some turbines are simply rupturing

Fires have not been the only problems wind turbines in the Lower Saxony region have been seeing, the NDR reports, but also catastrophic mechanical failure involving towers and blades suddenly snapping.

In early January, 2017, in Neu Wulmstorf near Hamburg, a 16-year old wind turbine suddenly collapsed”, NDR reported here. Turbines are typically designed to last 20 years.

NDR wrote that the wind turbine fires and collapses were not isolated incidents and reported that “collapsing wind turbines, burning rotors and snapping rotor” had occurred in “four accidents” in Germany over the previous weeks.

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New University Of Exeter Study Finds Climate Models Skewed, Overhype CO2 …”Uncertainties Rigorously Concealed”!

By P Gosselin on 1. December 2018

University of Exeter: Role of natural climate factors is underestimated

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

One of the main criticisms of the IPCC climate assessment is the marginalization of natural climate drivers. Indrani Roy of the University of Exeter published a paper in Frontiers, promoting greater consideration of natural factors in modern climate change. Press release from the University of Exeter of 10 October 2018:

Role of “natural factors” on recent climate change underestimated, research shows

Pioneering new research has given a new perspective on the crucial role that ‘natural factors’ play in global warming. The study, by Dr Indrani Roy at the University of Exeter, suggests that the natural phenomena such as solar eleven-year cycles and strong volcanic explosions play important roles in recent climate change which has been ‘underestimated’.

All existing studies focus on the rise in Co2 in the atmosphere as being the main driver of global temperature rises. However, Dr Roy suggests that the role natural factors plays in climate change should be given more prominence. This study explores various possible areas where models miss important contributions due to these natural drivers. The research is published in leading journal Frontiers. Although CO₂ has risen significantly since 1998, global temperature did not show any significant increase. Models however suggested a significant rise.

Dr Roy said: “So what factors are missing? It is a puzzle of recent slowdown of global warming trend or Hiatus and this study addresses that issue.” For the study, Dr Roy looked specifically at data between 1976-96, which not only covered two full strong solar cycles and two explosive volcanic eruptions during active phases of those cycles, but which also matched a period of abrupt global warming. These data were compared with other periods.”

The research highlighted the important role that a dominant Central Pacific (CP) El Nino, and its associated water vapour feedback, played in global warming within the chosen period. Dr Roy suggests that the explosive volcanoes seen during this phase, which changed the sea level pressure around the North Atlantic, kick-started a ‘chain mechanism’ that played a crucial role. Dr Roy added that the change in Indian Summer Monsoons and El Nino connection during that abrupt warming period, and a subsequent recovery thereafter, can also be explained by this ‘chain mechanism’.

Addressing on Abrupt Global Warming, Warming Trend Slowdown and Related Features in Recent Decades by Dr Indrani Roy is published in Frontiers in Earth Science (https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00136)

——————-

“Uncertainties rigorously concealed from the public”

Image: Climate Etc.

Another criticism of the IPCC is that important remaining uncertainties are rigorously concealed from the public. Judith Curry has beautifully elaborated this point in a recent lecture.

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein. I have prepared a new talk that I presented yesterday at Rand Corp. My contact at Rand is Rob Lempert, of deepuncertainty.org fame. Very nice visit and interesting discussion. My complete presentation can be downloaded [Rand uncertainty]. This post focuses on the new material.

You’ll find the entire article with illustrations at Climate Etc.

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Posted in Models | 12 Responses

Snow Forecast To Reach Florida, Mexico… This Decade’s November Snow Cover Highest On Record

By P Gosselin on 30. November 2018

Observations surprise global warming alarmists as snow forecast to fall in Florida, this decade’s November snow cover hits record high, Arctic ice volume stabilizes, models having hard time with forecasts…

Yesterday Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell’s Daily Update showed that December in the US and Canada will be starting on the unusually snowy side.

As the chart above shows, snow will reach all the way down across the Florida Panhandle to the Gulf of Mexico.

Growing snow cover

Also snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere has grown over the past decades. Data from Rutgers University show more November snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere over the recent decade than what we observed 30 – 40 years ago:

Plot: Rutgers University

In fact this decade has never seen so much November snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere since data recording began in the late 1960s.

The increasing late fall snow cover seems to contradict the alarmist claims of snowless winters due to global warming.

Arctic melting has stalled

Also Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye prepared the following Arctic sea ice volume chart for November 29, which shows late November sea ice volume has been trending upwards over the past 12 years:

Data source: DMI.

Currently Arctic sea ice is at the same level as the 2004-2013 mean, and so melting has stalled.

CFSv2 December forecast for Europe flips 4°C!

Meanwhile for Europe, Schneefan (Snow Fan) here shows how the CFSv2 model for Europe for December changed over 20 days by a whopping 4°C for parts of Eastern Europe.

On November 1, the model showed all of Europe would be at a balmy 2-3°C above normal (left). But then 20 days later, on November 21, it showed Eastern Europe 1 to 2°C below normal (right):

Source: CFSv2-Trend prognoses

Snow fan agrees with veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi comparing this year to the 2002/2003 and 2009/2010 winters. In Central Europe December 2009 started out mild, but the second half cooled substantially. Latest forecasts show the same may be in the works for the coming December.

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Posted in Arctic, Models | 10 Responses

A ‘Growing Number Of Scientists’ Indicate Earth’s Oil & Gas Supply Is Abiogenic, Unlimited…Renewable

By Kenneth Richard on 29. November 2018

“Peak Oil is dead. The era of hydrocarbon civilization will never end!”

— Prof. N.P. Zapivalov, Russian Geologist

“If substantiated, the study of abiotic petroleum origin theory could provide practically unlimited hydrocarbon fuels recharge from below the existing sedimentary petroleum basins in the Earth’s crusts from its mantle.”

— Dr. Magdi Ragheb, Nuclear Engineer

“[T]here is a growing number of scientists and researchers … suggesting that these compounds [‘coal, oil, and natural gas’] must be abiogenic in origin rather than biogenic.”

— Frank Oliver Konga (renewable energy advocate)

Image Source: Ragheb, 2018

Zapivalov, 2018

Petroleum Geology: Science and Practice

in the 21st century. New Ideas and Paradigms

“Hydrocarbons are reported to occur in all strata of the Earth’s crust and are supposed to occur in the cosmic space, too.”

“Oil-and-gas accumulations are traced in all types of rocks and at all stratigraphic levels both onshore and offshore. In fact, we live in a hydrocarbon civilization. Our planet is actually a large overall petroleum polygon. New evidence and facts refuted the myth of “Peak Oil”. Oilfields can be discovered in most unexpected places and conditions. The oil recovery rates depend on various natural, technogenic, and market fluctuations including human factor.”

“A great variety of hydrocarbon sources, both conventional and unconventional, have been discovered and are still being discovered; innovative methods and technologies for hydrocarbon production and utilization are being created; on the whole it shows that Peak Oil is dead. The era of hydrocarbon civilization will never end!”

Ragheb, 2018

Biogenic and Abiogenic Petroleum

“Two schools of thought exist about the origin of petroleum: a Western school suggesting that its origin is biogenic resulting from the decay of organic biological matter and stored in sedimentary basins near the Earth’s surface, and a Ukrainian-Russian school proposing that it is abiogenic with an inorganic origin deep within the Earth’s crust dating back to the time of the formation of the Earth. The first suggestion implies a finite resource, whereas the second implies an almost unlimited one. Each school dismisses the other one, leading to interesting discussions and discourses.”

“An argument for the existence of abiogenic petroleum is that the deepest fossil ever found has been about 16,000 feet below sea level, yet petroleum can be extracted from wells drilled down to 30,000 feet and more. The argument is advanced that if a fossil was once living matter, it had to be on the surface. If it did turn into petroleum, at or near the surface, and since petroleum has a lower density than water it would be expected to rise on top of water not go under it. The counter-argument is that these deep deposits may have resulted from crustal movements or were buried by bolide impacts.”

“When the Earth was formed it should have contained substantial amounts of carbon and hydrocarbons. It is also possible that the heat from radioactive decay may be contributing to the creation of hydrocarbons in the Earth’s mantle.”

“The abiogenic petroleum formation hypothesis holds that as petroleum is drawn out of the known reservoirs through petroleum wells, the field pressure is slightly reduced, thereby allowing more deep petroleum to migrate up from the mantle and recharge the reservoir from below. This suggests that decreasing the existing reservoirs’ pressure should be attempted in view of recharging them, rather than increasing their pressure through water and gas injection.”

“If substantiated, the study of abiotic petroleum origin theory could provide practically unlimited hydrocarbon fuels recharge from below the existing sedimentary petroleum basins in the Earth’s crusts from its mantle.”

Konga, 2018

Which economic aspects would have the
greatest impact in the European Union for
switching from traditional to renewable energy?

“Consensus on the creation and origin of petroleum currently held by western science points to ancient microorganisms, plant matter and their subsequent burial over millions of years after which immense pressure and temperature caused by the material collecting on top of them resulted in transformation of solid, liquid and gas formations known as coal, oil and natural gas. This type of theory is referred to as biogenic or Western theory on the creation and origin of oil (Summers, 2015).

However, there is a growing number of scientists and researchers challenging such a theory, indicating that organic compounds are extremely common in space rock and atmospheres of other planets in our solar system (Bansal, 2015), suggesting that these compounds must be abiogenic in origin rather than biogenic.”

“Popularity of biogenic theory can be attributed to the 17th and 18th century scientific understanding of carbon-based compounds and importance of life in their creation (Summers, 2015). Additionally, different types of organic matter and residue was found in various depths and layers of rock formations deep underground, which combined with extreme pressure, temperature and other factors could have resulted in huge concentrated stores of oil, as extraction of oil from fossilised organic matter is proved true (Heinberg, 2018).”

“The opposing group of abiogenic theory supporters, also called Russian-Ukrainian group explain inorganic origin of oil because of chemical reactions of minerals rather than by decay of organic matter, further deducting that oil is a renewable resource found in immense quantities in presently unreachable depths (Ragheb, 2018). Hydrocarbons are a chemical compound consisting of a combination of hydrogen and carbon atoms, together in great quantities making up the composition of oil (EIA, 2017b).”

“Although it is widely supported fact that oil can be retrieved from fossilised organisms (Penner, 2018) and is conjointly backed by decades of data and technological development, some newer research has proven that part of the chemistry suggested by the abiogenic theory supporters to be surprisingly valid and worth investigating.”

Bardi, 2019

Peak oil, 20 years later:

Failed prediction or useful insight?

“Today, 20 years have passed since the publication of the ground-breaking Scientific American report [1]. The expected world peak has not arrived, at least in terms of a reduction of the global supply of liquid fuels [11] and, in general, the concept of peak oil has faded from the mainstream discussion as well as from the scientific literature. ASPO international seems to have disappeared as an active association around 2012–2013, although some national branches of the association still exist. The generally accepted explanation for the fading interest in the concept attributes it to the ‘wrong predictions’ of the date of the peak and, from there, most mainstream reports tend to define the whole concept as wrong and misleading.”

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Russian Climate Science | 10 Responses

“Environmental Crime”… Rare, Endangered Birds Being Killed To Clear Way For Wind Park Project Approvals

By P Gosselin on 28. November 2018

The online German BR24 of Bavaria here writes how many endangered birds are being shot or poisoned in what appears to be in some cases attempts to clear the way for controversial projects such as wind parks.

Already there are strong protests across Germany concerning wind parks ruining the landscape, damaging the local biotope, disrupting the water management and the sickening infrasound that the installations emit. But now “climate rescuers” are also actively purposely killing rare birds that obstruct project approvals.

The BR24 reports how each year 40 – 50 suspicious cases of large dead birds across Bavaria are examined in order to determine the the cause of a large bird’s death. Recently a passerby found an extremely rare sea eagle dead near a railway embankment. Experts say that it is highly unlikely that the large predatory bird was killed by a passing train.

The large sea eagle was thus taken to the Bird Protection Monitoring Station in Garmisch-Partenkirchen where it was X-rayed and underwent an autopsy to determine the real cause of death, The result: it had been poisoned. An illegal rat poison was found in its stomach and liver.

This is a tragedy because according to Hans-Joachim Fünfstück, Director of the Monitoring Station:

Concerning sea eagles, we have only a very small stock in Bavaria. We are not even at 25 breeding pairs. We have 20 pairs, maybe. Every bird is precious.”

Overall, the BR 24 writes that in Garmisch Partenkirchen all suspiciously dead birds undergo an autopsy and writes that a cause of death “is often poisoning” by using tainted bait.

Hans-Joachim Fünfstück says that although the work is fascinating, “it is also depressing when it is discovered that the bird was either shot or poisoned. ”

In the case of the poisoned sea eagle, it was likely struck by a train because it had been rendered too sick and was no longer able to react properly.

The BR24 also reports that recently a dead hawk was found under or power transmission tower and made to look as if it had been an accident. But an X-ray of the hawk revealed that it had been shot.”

Unfortunately, the BR24 writes, the perpetrators almost always get away.

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Posted in Activism, Alternative Energy | 17 Responses

40-Year Meteorologist Says Recent Global Warming Due To Natural, Ocean-Cycle-Related Water Vapor, Not CO2

By P Gosselin on 27. November 2018

At Weatherbell’s most recent Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi presents the main reason why he believes the globe has been warming over the past decades: more water vapor in the atmosphere due to natural ocean cycles.

Panic time for Arctic sea ice doomsayers?

The former Accuweather meteorologist explains why there’s a good chance Arctic sea ice will be rebounding over the coming years: because the North Atlantic appears to be headed into its cool phase, which means less warmth being supplied to the adjacent Arctic.

Bastardi says this is due to the natural ocean cycles, where surface temperatures oscillate on decadal scales.

Sometimes I believe that folks on the other side of the issue are getting a little panicky because they know when the Atlantic does switch into its colder phase, the Arctic sea ice going to go back to where it was 20, 30, 40 years ago when we were in a colder phase.”

Scientists and modelers neglect oceans

Bastardi also sharply criticizes climate scientists for not bothering to look at the obvious natural oceanic factors that drive seasonal weather patterns, and take the easy way out by blaming CO2 global warming.

The veteran meteorologist adds that “water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas because we can link it directly to temperature”, and explains how most of the global warming in fact happened at the Earth’s poles because of higher water vapor from the warmer ocean sea surface temperature phase which ends up in the atmosphere.

Figure 1: November 24, 2018, Weatherbell Saturday Summary.

The added water vapor at the poles substantially amplifies the warming there, much more than it does at the tropics.

Over the past 20 years most of the global warming has occurred over the Arctic and Antarctic, as Figure 1 shows. This is because over the same time period atmospheric water vapor has increased – due to the warm phases of the oceanic cycles we’ve seen over the past 2 – 3 decades, see Figure 2:

Figure 2: November 24, 2018, Weatherbell Saturday Summary

And because even a small amount of added vapor to the air has a profound effect on the air temperature where it’s very cold, as is the case at the poles, tremendous “warming” occurs. Meanwhile substantial amounts of added water vapor to the atmosphere in warm tropical areas have only modest effects on air temperature.

Table 1 shows what happens when water vapor gets added to air at different temperatures:

Table 1: Mixing ratios at various temperatures. Adding just 0.1 g of water vapor to 1 kg of air leads to a temperature increase of about 10°C. Source: November 24, 2018, Weatherbell Saturday Summary

When just 0.1 grams of water gets added to a kilogram of air, the temperature of that air rises by over 10°C! Of course this phenomenon has nothing to do with the greenhouse (radiation effects), but rather because of thermodynamic reasons.

When 0.1 gram of water vapor gets added to air that is +35°C, typical in the tropics, the temperature rises by only a tiny fraction of what is observed in the cold Arctic air. For that reason, Bastardi says: “We know water vapor is the big key.”

As the sea surface temperatures get warmer due the warm phase of the oceanic cycles, “they pump a little bit more water vapor in the air. Where’s it going to make the big difference? Temperature is not a linear measurement of energy,” Bastardi says.

The veteran meteorologist adds that if people really looked at water vapor’s effect on polar temperatures, they “would quickly understand that it’s not CO2.”

Bastardi also slams the recently released NCR government report, saying that it totally ignores all the huge benefits humanity has enjoyed because of fossil fuels:

Since the use of fossil fuels, global capita GDP and human life expectancy have exploded and are at record highs. Humans as a whole have never lived more comfortably.

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Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, CO2 and GHG | 20 Responses

New Treeline, Permafrost Evidence Strongly Affirms The Mid-Holocene Was 3°C Warmer Than Today

By Kenneth Richard on 26. November 2018

Newly published macrofossil discoveries from 4 papers strongly suggest that modern warmth may still be about 3°C colder than nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

Image Source: Leunda et al. (2018)

1. Permafrost is still present today in a region that was permafrost-free throughout the Holocene (until the onset of the Little Ice Age)

According to data from a new study (Sannel et al., 2018), subarctic Northern Sweden has yet to rise out of the range of frigid, permafrost-friendly temperatures coeval with of the Little Ice Age (roughly 1400 to 1900 AD).

Permafrost still exists today in regions where there was no recorded permafrost during nearly all of the Holocene, when temperatures were too warm (3°C higher than today) for permafrost to form.

These findings strongly suggest that modern warmth is nothing unusual, unprecedented, or even remarkable. In fact, it may be said that today’s subarctic warmth may only be slightly warmer than the coldest centennial-scale period — the Little Ice Age — of the last 10,000 years.

Sannel et al., 2018

“At all these sites the datings together with the results of the plant macrofossil analyses suggest that permafrost aggradation took place around 600–100 cal. a BP [the Little Ice Age]. … [A]t these sites there are no indications of permafrost inception prior to the Little Ice Age. … Warmer conditions during recent decades have resulted in extensive permafrost degradation in Fennoscandian palsas and peat plateaus (Sollid& Sørbel 1998; Zuidhoff& Kolstrup 2000; Luoto & Seppala 2003; Sannel & Kuhry 2011; Borge et al. 2017).”

“At present the permafrost is close to thawing with mean annual ground temperatures just below 0°C (Christiansen et al. 2010; Johansson et al. 2011; Sannel et al. 2016).”

“Throughout most of the Holocene, these northern peatlands have not experienced climatic conditions cold enough for permafrost to form.”

“During peatland initiation (c. 10 000–9600 cal. a BP) the climatic conditions in the region were favourable for plant productivity with around 3 °C warmer summer temperatures compared to today (Kullman & Oberg 2015), resulting in relatively rapid peat and net carbon accumulation rates during the early Holocene.”

Image Source: Sannel et al., 2018

2. Italian Alps tree lines ~460 meters higher than present indicate surface temperatures were 3.1°C warmer during the Mid-Holocene

The modern forest line position in an Italian Alps study area (Badino et al., 2018) is 2,360 meters above sea level (m asl).

Per the data indicated in the graph below, the forest line position averaged between 2,750 to 2,900 m asl during 7400 to 3600 cal yrs BP — about 460 m higher than today’s forest line.

With a temperature lapse rate of 0.67°C/100 m for the region documented in the paper, this indicates temperatures were about 3.1°C warmer than today [4.6 X 0.67°C] during the Mid-Holocene.

Badino et al., 2018

“Between 7400 and 3600 yrs cal BP, an higher-than-today [~2820 m asl vs. 2360 m asl today] forest line position persisted under favorable growing conditions (i.e. TJuly at ca. 12 °C).”

“Between ca. 8.4-4 ka cal BP, our site [Italian Alps] experienced a mean TJuly of ca. 12.4 °C, i.e. 3.1 °C warmer than today.”

“[O]ur lapse rate (0.67°C/100 m), [is] slightly steeper than the average of 0.6°C for temperate regions (Barry and Chorley, 1992) was provided at higher spatial resolution.”

Images Source: Badino et al., 2018

3. The Pyrenees (Spain) timber line exceeded today’s uppermost limit by 300-400 meters ~4,500 years ago, indicating Mid-Holocene surface temperatures were about 2°C higher

The temperature lapse rate for the Pyrenees region is 0.517°C/100 m according to a newly published paper.

“Estimation of near‐surface air temperature lapse rates over continental Spain and its mountain areas … The median NSLR [near‐surface (i.e., non‐free atmosphere) air temperature lapse rates] … Pyrenees −5.17 °C/km“ (Navarro-Serrano et al., 2018)

Leunda et al. (2018) have published a study that shows the Mid-Holocene (about 4,500 years ago) Pyrenees timber line was 300-400 meters higher than today’s uppermost limit.

This would suggest that Pyrenees temperatures were about 1.6 to 2.1°C warmer [3.5 X 0.517°C] than today during 4,650-4,200 calendar years before present.

Leunda et al., 2018

“The tree line ecotone was located at the cave altitude from 5,700 to 4,650 cal year bp, when vegetation consisted of open Pinus uncinata Ramond ex DC and Betula spp. Woodlands and timberline were very close to the site. Subsequently, tree line slightly raised and timberline reached the ice cave altitude, exceeding its today’s uppermost limit by c. 300–400 m during more than four centuries (4,650 and 4,200 cal year bp) at the end of the Holocene Thermal Maximum.”

Image Source: Leunda et al. (2018)

4. Tree remnants found northern Sweden mountain sites 600 to 700 meters atop where the 21st century tree line ends imply the Early Holocene (9500 years ago) was 3-4°C warmer than today

The temperature lapse rate for the Swedish Lapland region is 0.6°C/100 m.

Kullman (2018) found tree debris (trunks, cones, roots, etc.) 600 to 700 meters atop modern tree line positions that were dated to about 9,500 years ago. Accounting for glacio-isostatic uplift, this tree line elevation implies surface air temperatures were 3.6°C higher than today during the Early Holocene.

Kullman, 2018

“The present paper reports results from an extensive project aiming at improved understanding of postglacial subalpine/alpine vegetation, treeline, glacier and climate history in the Scandes of northern Sweden. The main methodology is analyses of mega fossil tree remnants, i.e. trunks, roots and cones, recently exposed at the fringe of receding glaciers and snow/ice patches. This approach has a spatial resolution and accuracy, which exceeds any other option for tree cover reconstruction in high-altitude mountain landscapes.”

“All recovered tree specimens originate from exceptionally high elevations, about 600-700 m atop of modern treeline positions.”

“Conservatively drawing on the latter figure and a summer temperature lapse rate of 0.6 °C per 100 m elevation (Laaksonen 1976), could a priori mean that, summer temperatures were at least 4.2 °C warmer than present around 9500 year before present. However, glacio-isostatic land uplift by at least 100 m since that time (Möller 1987; Påsse & Anderson 2005)implies that this figure has to be reduced to 3.6 °C higher than present-day levels, i.e. first decades of the 21st century. Evidently, this was the warmth peak of the Holocene, hitherto. This inference concurs with paleoclimatic reconstructions from Europe and Greenland (Korhola et al. 2002; Bigler et al. 2003; Paus 2013; Luoto et al. 2014; Väliranta et al. 2015).”

Image Source: Kullman, 2018

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Posted in Little Ice Age, Paleo-climatology | 16 Responses

Spiegel Science Reporter: Journalists “Rather Spread Disaster Scenarios”, Ignore Climate Science Uncertainties

By P Gosselin on 25. November 2018

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski, a geology major, believes some journalistic changes are sorely needed when it comes the mainstream media reporting on climate science and its uncertainties.

Spiegel’s critical science journalist Axel Bojanowski. Image cropped from Twitter here.

The online NDR German public television reports here on an annual meeting of science journalists which recently took place in Bremen.

Journalists “rather spread disaster scenarios”

Bojanowski criticized many of his colleagues, saying they would “rather spread disaster scenarios instead of critically examining the scientists”.

He also told the audience that models predicting the climate decades out are in fact “quite blurred”.

Germany is a country where the mainstream media universally promote the worst case climate scenarios in lockstep, as if they are established fact. Moreover, the media has a penchant to attack critical voices that question the scenarios of climate doom and gloom.

Journalists regard alarmist scientists as prophets

According to Bojanowski:

It gets reported as if scientists are coming down the mountain with big stone plates in which the truth is engraved.”

The Spiegel journalist’s sharp criticism of his colleagues is a rare occurrence in Germany, and potentially risky. Most journalists believe they are doing the right thing in spreading alarmism, are convinced the science is settled, and refuse to acknowledge how shaky the scientific basis really is.

Always the same handful of scientists get cited

Moreover, only a small handful of scientists get cited by the media, says Bojanowski: “In Germany, the same five, six, seven experts are always quoted among thousands of scientists.”

The NDR writes that journalists “see it as their mission to teach society that they must change their behavior to stop climate change” but Bojanowski says the journalists prefer “not to bother with the blurriness of the science”.

Dissenting voices viewed as “a danger”

Former Süddeutsche Zeitung journalist, Christoph Schrader does not share Bojanowski’s view, saying: “We really do know enough” when it comes to climate research. For Schrader, the science is settled and now the core issue is the “Transformation”. He told NDR: We have to get into society. We must change all our ways of behavior.”

Schrader even called Bojanowski’s view “a danger”.

All sense of objectivity lost

Climate science skeptics Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt responded, blasting Schrader’s draconian view, writing at their Die kalte Sonne site here that Schrader would “fit perfectly in the media landscape of former Communist East Germany”, has lost every sense of objectivity, and uncritically publishes everything that is handed to him from the alarmist Potsdam institute.

According to Lüning and Vahrenholt: “Schrader does not view himself as a journalist” but rather behaves more like “missionary agitator”.

Uncertainty is the truth

Bojanowski also described to NDR the resistance he experiences from journalist colleagues, and how he gets accused of “wanting to obstruct climate protection.”

Communication expert Dr. Imke Hoppe agreed with Bojanowski’s observation that the public is not sufficiently informed about the uncertainties of long term forecasts.

According to Bojanowski, “People believe the uncertainties are negligible, and fundamentally a distraction from the real essence. The uncertainties in climate research are immensely true.”

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Record Cold Hits North America, Arctic Sea Ice Stable As Solar Activity Reaches Near 200-Year Low

By P Gosselin on 24. November 2018

Winter has arrived much earlier than normal this year, particularly across North America, where cold records have been shattered.

This Thanksgiving is in fact going down as one of the coldest ever on record across the Northeast. The Washington Post here, for example, reports that Thanksgiving and Black Friday 2018 will be remembered for a record-shattering cold snap across the Northeast United States.”

Also WeatherNation tweeted some impressive record low temperatures being set:

Brrrr! #Record cold low temperatures were observed this morning throughout the Northeast. pic.twitter.com/kjffiAyWRY

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) November 22, 2018

For example, Binghamton, New York smashed its earlier record set 10 years earlier by a whopping 12°F!

It was another #record-breaking cold morning throughout the Northeast! Check out some of these temperatures. #NYwx #NJwx #CTwx #RIwx #MAwx pic.twitter.com/dRdWc9JXFC

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) November 23, 2018

The Today Show reported that this year’s traditional Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade was “the coldest on record”.

Records for November 22 were set in Canada across Ontario as well.

Arctic sea ice, snow and ice cover rebound

Arctic sea ice volume has rebounded and is near normal levels. The sea ice trend has remained stable over the past decade and thus defy all the climate alarmist predictions of an Arctic meltdown.

Chart made by Kirye. Data Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Also, according to the University of Rutgers, winter northern hemisphere snow extent has been trending upwards over the past 50 years:

Solar activity lowest level in near 200 years

So what could be behind all the surprising record-setting cold and early wintry weather?

A huge volume of scientific literature suggests that low solar activity is playing a major role. The 20th century saw especially strong solar activity, but it has quieted down substantially since the mid 2000s.

The last solar cycle (no. 24) is now all but officially the weakest in close to 200 years, since Solar Cycle 6.

The plot of Solar Cycle 24, red curve, compared to the mean of the previous 23 solar cycles (blue curve) and the similar Solar Cycle 5, which occurred around the year 1800. Chart: Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt.

The above bar chart compares the solar cycles in terms of sunspot number 119 months into the respective cycles. So far the current Solar Cycle 24 has seen an anomaly of -4360 from the mean. Chart: Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

Most researchers believe that the coming solar cycle 25 will also be weaker than normal, meaning the planet is likely now well into a period of low solar cycle activity, which means a cooling climate ahead – as was the case of the Dalton Minimum some 200 years ago.

Little wonder the Arctic has not cooperated with the doomsday, ice-free Arctic scenarios, and instead has stabilized. A cooling North Atlantic will also further enhance the trend towards an Arctic sea ice rebound. The next 10 years will likely settle the dispute of what mostly drove the 20th century warming: The sun or manmade trace gas CO2.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Weather | 8 Responses

Europe’s Energy Uprising …Hundreds Injured, “Warlike Conditions” As Protests Against High Fuel Prices Rage

By P Gosselin on 23. November 2018

Fuel price uprisings spread across Belgium, France… hundreds injured, one dead, major highways blocked, property and windows smashed by “yellow vest” fuel price protesters.

The fact that fuel prices in Europe are sky-high is no accident. They have been willed that way by cash and regulation-hungry governments.

Moreover, the threatened actions aimed at curbing the use of fossil fuels involve yet even higher taxes. Established policymakers and political leaders appear to be disconnected from the citizenry as they let themselves be chauffeured around in taxpayer-financed cars powered by tax-payer-paid fuel or in taxpayer-paid flights burning jet fuel while demanding citizens pay much more.

But recently in some areas of Europe, enough has become enough, and citizens have decided they are not going to take it anymore.

Mayhem

According to reports from France’s AFP, over 400 people were injured, 14 seriously, in “yellow vest” protests over skyrocketing fuel price hikes. One person was killed.

The protests took place last weekend at “locations around the country where protesters had blocked roads to express their anger at a series of hikes in petrol tax,” the AFP reported.

The injured included 28 police and firefighters.

France Interior Minister Christophe Castaner told that 288,000 people took part in Saturday’s protest that led to uprising like conditions at some 2,034 protest locations countrywide.

“Warlike scenes”

Moreover, according to Sputnik News here, “Protests against higher fuel prices have spilled into Belgium across the French border” and described “warlike scenes”.

Sputnik writes roughly “400 protesters hurled stones and Molotov cocktails at police” and went on a rampage, vandalizing property.

The protesters also blocked highways, stopping some 250 trucks on the E16 Mons-Brussels motorway and another 150 at the Belgium-France border crossing on the N6 highway.

Elites gouging citizens

According to Sputnik: “In 2018, gas prices across France increased by between 10-15 percent, with the price of diesel jumping nearly 25 percent. A further increase is set to happen on January 1, 2019.”

In Paris the protests are being mainly held by French students, rail workers, air traffic controllers, and public sector workers who are directing their anger at the controversial reforms of President Emmanuel Macron.

Mainstream media stays quiet

Europe’s mainstream media have been unusually subdued in reporting on the angry fuel uprisings now raging across France and Belgium.

The Belgium-based, German-language ostbelgiendirekt.be here:

The protests were launched by Internet groups, whereby political parties or trade unions remained behind the scenes. “

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Posted in Activism, Climate Politics | 23 Responses

2 More New Climate Reconstructions Indicate Rapid COOLING In The Last 100+ Years

By Kenneth Richard on 22. November 2018

The evidence that “global” warming has not been global in scale continues to accumulate. Two more new reconstructions from the Western Pacific (He et al., 2018) and subpolar North Atlantic (Orme et al., 2018) indicate that modern temperatures have continued to decline since the onset of the Little Ice Age.

These add to the nearly 300 graphs published in the scientific literature since 2017 showing that there is nothing unusual, unprecedented, or remarkable about the temperatures changes in the last 150 years.

“Together with the weakening upwelling condition observed from the same core, we believe that the temperature decreasing trend in the studied region since the end of the LIA [(the recent ~100 years)] is probably caused by changes in current strength instead of coastal upwelling. Less warm water from the south area was transported to the region, probably because of the changes in the weakening KC overturning the increasing global temperature signal in the YS and ECS regions since the end of the LIA (He et al., 2014). In fact, this decreasing SST trend was also observed in many UK’37-SST records among sites located in the mid-latitude western Pacific region since the end of the LIA (Figure 3, Kim et al., 2004; Li et al., 2009; Nakanishi et al., 2012b; Ruan et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2011). In addition, three ~400-year UK’37-SST records from sediment cores collected in the Mirs Bay, northeastern Hong Kong also show cooling trends in this period (Kong et al., 2015).” (He et al., 2018)

“The diatom-based reconstruction shows warmer reconstructed temperatures than the dinocyst-based reconstruction and the modern measured summer SST (June-August) of 10.9°C. … The overall long-term cooling trend in the diatom-based SST reconstruction for the last 6.1 ka fits with the widely established cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, resulting from decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (e.g. Calvo et al., 2002; Marchal et al., 2002; Andersen et al., 2004a, 2004b; Andersson et al., 2010; Jiang et al., 2015; Sejrup et al., 2016). … The earliest warm period at ~6.1-4 ka BP had average reconstructed SSTs of 12-13.3°C, with the warmest temperatures in the record occurring at ~6.1-5.5 ka BP (c. 13°C). The cooler period ~4-2 ka BP had reconstructed SST that varied around 11.5°C, with minima at 3.2 and 2.4 ka BP interrupted by a short warming at 2.7 ka BP. In the most recent period after 2 ka BP the SSTs again increased peaking at 1.8 ka BP, yet SSTs did not attain values as high as those reconstructed for 6.1-4 ka BP. … In the diatom-based record the mean reconstructed temperature between 4 and 2 ka BP is 11.5°C compared with 12.5 and 12.1°C in the periods before 4 ka BP and after 2 ka BP respectively, showing a reconstructed cooling of 0.6-1°C. In the dinocyst-based record the mean reconstructed temperature between 4 and 2 ka BP is 10.3°C compared with 11.3 and 11.6°C in the periods before 4 ka BP and after 2 ka BP respectively, showing a cooling of 1-1.3°C.” (Orme et al., 2018)

Below are a few of the many other cooling-since-the-Little-Ice-Age reconstructions that have already been highlighted in 2018.

“The average RAN15-MAAT of 18.4°C over the most recent part of the record (<0.8 ka BP) [the last 800 years BP] overlaps with the range of MAATs, ca. 16.2°C to 18.7°C (av. 17.5°C) measured since 1952 at the nearest meteorological station (Yichang, located ca. 100 km away) and is very close to the av. MAAT of 18°C measured directly outside the cave by a temperature logger between 2004 and 2007 (Hu et al., 2008a). This agreement between reconstructed temperatures and instrumental measurements increases our confidence in the potential of the RAN15 proxy. RAN15-MAATs in HS4 vary from 16.5°C to 20.6°C (av. 19°C), during the last 9 ka BP, and broadly follow a long-term trend of declining temperatures in line with declining solar insolation at 30°N in July (Laskar et al., 2004). … Interestingly, the most recent 0.9 ka BP [900 years BP] is distinguished by greater variability with the highest (20.5°C) and lowest (16.5°C) RAN15-MAATs occurring consecutively at 0.6 ka BP [600 years BP] and 0.5 ka BP [500 years BP].” (Wang et al., 2018)

“From c. 1.5 ka BP onwards, we record a prominent subsurface cooling and continued occurrence of fresh and sea‐ice loaded surface waters at the study site.” (Perner et al., 2018)

“According to the present climate reconstruction, mid Holocene warming started only at 7,700 cal bp, with temperatures higher than now during the mid Holocene period. This warming was due to an increase in winter temperatures (1–5 °С higher than current), while summer temperatures remained relatively stable, with a July temperature<1 °С higher than now. … During the mid Holocene, two cold periods at 6,900–6,500 and at 5,300–5,000 cal bp were observed. Interestingly, during the cold periods, the temperatures exceeded the current ones by 0.5–1.5 °С. … The transition from the mid Holocene thermal maximum to the following period occurred without considerable climatic changes. The mean annual temperatures remained much higher than the current ones by 0.5–2.5 °С until 2,500 cal bp. Local maximum temperatures were observed at 4,800, 4,300, 3,500 and 2,900–2,700 cal bp. The present climatic reconstruction demonstrates a gradual cooling down to current levels at ca. 2,500 cal bp, and then followed by a new warming phase with up to 1–2 °С increase at approximately 1,500 cal bp.” (Nosova et al., 2018)

“The mean annual temperature recorded at the closest meteorological station [La Sarre: 1961–1990] is 0.8 °C, with August temperature averages of 15.0 °C (1961–1990) and 15.4 °C (1981–2010). … During zone Lch1 (8500–5800 cal year BP), the average reconstructed temperature was 16.9 °C, with a decrease from 19 °C (maximum) to 17 °C at the end of the zone. In zone Lch-2 (ca. 5700–3500 cal year BP), temperatures had an average of 16.8 °C, with a decrease from 17.8 °C around 5200 cal year BP to 16.2 °C at 3400 cal year BP. Zone Lch-3 (ca. 3500–1200 cal year BP) started with inferences for high temperatures (19.3–18.5 °C), followed by a decrease to 16.8 °C between ca. 3000 and 2500 cal year BP. An increase (18.3 and 19.6 °C) was inferred for the period between 1800 and 1500 cal year BP. The average chironomid inferred temperature during Zone 3 was 17.9 °C. In the last zone (Lch-4), the temperatures decreased from ca. 17.5 °C at the beginning of the zone to 14.8 °C at the end of the zone. The average during this zone was 16.5 °C. The temperature anomalies show that throughout the whole record, only six of the inferences were colder than the climate normal of 15.4 °C and three were colder than today, with the climate normal of 15 °C (Fig. 4b). The average anomaly from 15 °C (2.10 °C) and from 15.4 °C (1.70 °C) for the whole record showed that the temperature inferences were generally, and significantly, warmer than today.” (Bajolle et al., 2018)

“[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present.” (Song et al., 2018)

“Summer temperatures (MJT) at Xingyun Lake in the late glacial were low, increased during the early Holocene, were highest during the middle Holocene, and then decreased during the late Holocene. The range of inferred values [for the Holocene] was 21.0°- 26.5°C. The pollen inferred temperature derived from surface samples (21.2°C), is close to the modern instrumental July temperature in Kunming (22°C), supporting the reliability of reconstructions from down-core pollen assemblages.” (Wu et al., 2018)

Image Source: Zhang and Feng, 2018

Image Source: Wang et al., 2018

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Paleo-climatology | 8 Responses

New Swiss Ice Core Study Shows MAN NOT RESPONSIBLE For End Of Little Ice Age!

By P Gosselin on 21. November 2018

Ice core study: Industrialization not the cause of the end of the Little Ice Age

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

A few days ago here at our blog we presented a study criticizing climate models and false soot data:

These data clearly show that industrial soot could hardly have been responsible for the melting of the Alpine glaciers at the time mainly between 1850 and 1875. ‘By 1875, about 80 percent of the glacier retreat had already been completed,’ said Sigl. Indeed it was not until 1875 that the amount of industrial soot in Central Europe exceeded the amount naturally present in the atmosphere.”

The study was even presented in October, 2018, in the Swiss SRF news. Click on the 13:22 mark of the broadcast. The report lasts about 3 minutes. One day later also a separate text accompanied the video release at the SRF website:

160 years ago – Industrialization not the cause of the end of the Little Ice Age

Is man, and his industrialization, responsible for the so-called Little Ice Age coming to an end in the middle of the 19th century? So far historians and climatologists have assumed that the melting of the Alpine glaciers began with industrialization after 1860 — because of the increased output of soot. This assumption is not correct – that’s what researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), link opens a new window. On the basis of evidence that is found deep in the ice: The analysis of the amount of soot that is trapped in the glacier ice refutes this previous assumption.”

Read more (German) at SRF. You can read the English language article at swissinfo.ch.

What was the driving force of the early glacier melt? Sigl and colleagues surmise that volcanoes and a weak sun in the Maunder Minimum caused the glaciers to grow excessively and, after few snowfalls and (natural) warming caused by the AMO, then to recede.

Here is the abstract of the study by Sigl et al. 2018:

19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers
Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their presence in ambient air and snow changes the radiative properties of these systems, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time. Starting around AD1860, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19th century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. The basis for this hypothesis was model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps. Here we present sub-annually resolved concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti ice core in the Alps from AD1741 to 2015. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19th century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in AD1875, the time when rBC ice-core concentrations started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80% of their total 19th century length reduction, casting doubt on a leading role for soot in terminating of the Little Ice Age. Attribution of glacial retreat requires expansion of the spatial network and sampling density of high alpine ice cores to balance potential biasing effects arising from transport, deposition, and snow conservation in individual ice-core records.”

Already on September 17, 2018, in the New York Times there was an article about a Swiss ice core study on the Little Ice Age:

Europe’s Triumphs and Troubles Are Written in Swiss Ice
Pollen frozen in ice in the Alps traces Europe’s calamities, since the time Macbeth ruled Scotland. As plague swept through Europe in the mid-1300s, wiping out more than a third of the region’s population, a glacier in the Alps was recording the upheaval of medieval society. While tens of millions of people were dying, pollen from the plants, trees and crops growing in Western Europe were being swept up by the winds and carried toward the Alps. They became trapped in snowflakes and fell onto the region’s highest mountain, the Monte Rosa massif. Over time, the snow flattened into ever-growing layers of ice, storing a blow-by-blow record of regional environmental change. Centuries later, the crop pollens trapped in the ice reveal the collapse of agriculture associated with the pandemic, as bad weather led to poor harvests and fields lay fallow because there was no one left to work them.”

The study related here: Brugger et al. 2018 (A quantitative comparison of microfossil extraction methods from ice cores).

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"Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" - Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English - by Pierre L. Gosselin

“Calculate for a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level of 0.03% [300 ppm]: [formula found in text] Calculated temperature after doubling of CO2 to 0.06% [600 ppm] ≈ 288.11 K. Climate sensitivity to CO2 is ≈ 288.14 – 288.11 ≈ – 0.03 K.”

By Kirye

Many new scientific papers affirm climate model results conflict with one another, diverge from observations, and aren’t fully rooted in established physics.

Image Source: Essex and Tsonis, 2018

Image Source: Associated Press (1989)

We Lack Understanding of Climate Mechanisms

“[C]limate changes in polar areas remain difficult to predict, which indicates that the underlying mechanisms of polar amplification remain uncertain and debatable.” (Ding et al., 2018)

Unfalsifiable Models

Climate Models Don’t Agree With Reality

1. Essex and Tsonis, 2018

• “Climate models do not and cannot employ known physics fully. Thus, they are falsified, a priori. Incomplete physics and the finite representation of computers can induce false instabilities.”

2. Collins et al., 2018

3. Kundzewicz et al., 2018

• “[C]limate models do not currently simulate the water cycle at sufficiently fine resolution for attribution of catchment-scale hydrological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. It is expected that climate models and impact models will become better integrated in the future.”

4. Lacour et al., 2018

None of the climate models match the observations

5. Kravtsov et al., 2018

6. Kam et al., 2018

7. Agarwal and Wettlaufer, 2018

8. Luo et al., 2018

9. Hanna et al., 2018

• “Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models“

10. Scanlon et al., 2018

• “Underestimation of GRACE-derived TWSA increasing trends is much greater for LSMs [global land surface models], with four of the five LSMs [global land surface models] yielding opposite trends (i.e., median negative rather than positive trends).”

• “Increasing GRACE trends are also found in surrounding basins, with most models yielding negative trends. Models greatly underestimate the increasing trends in Africa, particularly in southern Africa.”

• “TWSA trends from GRACE in northeast Asia are generally increasing, but many models show decreasing trends, particularly in the Yenisei.”

• “[T]he magnitude of the estimated climate contribution to GMSL [global mean sea level] is twice that of the human contribution and opposite in sign.”

Image Source: Glatzle, 2018

Domestic Livestock and Its Alleged Role in Climate Change

5. “Although the most recent estimates of yearly livestock-born global methane emissions came out 11% higher than earlier estimates [Wolf et al., 2017], we still cannot see any discernible livestock fingerprint in the global methane distribution (Figure 6).”

8. “[E]ven LA Chefs Column [Zwick, 2018], in spite of assuming a major global warming impact of methane, came to the conclusion: ‘When methane is put into a broader rather than a reductive context, we all have to stop blaming cattle (‘cows’) for climate change.'”

“Uncertainties rigorously concealed from the public”

— Prof. N.P. Zapivalov, Russian Geologist

— Dr. Magdi Ragheb, Nuclear Engineer

— Frank Oliver Konga (renewable energy advocate)

Image Source: Ragheb, 2018

Petroleum Geology: Science and Practice

in the 21st century. New Ideas and Paradigms

“Hydrocarbons are reported to occur in all strata of the Earth’s crust and are supposed to occur in the cosmic space, too.”

Biogenic and Abiogenic Petroleum

“When the Earth was formed it should have contained substantial amounts of carbon and hydrocarbons. It is also possible that the heat from radioactive decay may be contributing to the creation of hydrocarbons in the Earth’s mantle.”

“If substantiated, the study of abiotic petroleum origin theory could provide practically unlimited hydrocarbon fuels recharge from below the existing sedimentary petroleum basins in the Earth’s crusts from its mantle.”

Which economic aspects would have the greatest impact in the European Union for switching from traditional to renewable energy?

Peak oil, 20 years later:

Failed prediction or useful insight?

Newly published macrofossil discoveries from 4 papers strongly suggest that modern warmth may still be about 3°C colder than nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

Image Source: Leunda et al. (2018)

1. Permafrost is still present today in a region that was permafrost-free throughout the Holocene (until the onset of the Little Ice Age)

“At present the permafrost is close to thawing with mean annual ground temperatures just below 0°C (Christiansen et al. 2010; Johansson et al. 2011; Sannel et al. 2016).”

“Throughout most of the Holocene, these northern peatlands have not experienced climatic conditions cold enough for permafrost to form.”

Image Source: Sannel et al., 2018

2. Italian Alps tree lines ~460 meters higher than present indicate surface temperatures were 3.1°C warmer during the Mid-Holocene

Domestic Livestock and Its
Alleged Role in Climate Change

Which economic aspects would have the
greatest impact in the European Union for
switching from traditional to renewable energy?