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"Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" - Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany - by Pierre L. Gosselin

Activist Scientists Have Now Officially Changed A -0.5°C Global Cooling Trend Into A Warming Trend

By Kenneth Richard on 15. August 2022

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Back in the days when data manipulation was still strictly forbidden, scientists reported the globe cooled significantly for decades even as CO₂ concentrations increased.

The global cooling amplitude was -0.5°C from 1960-1965, and 1976 was reported to be the coldest year of any year measured since 1958 (Angell and Korshover, 1978).

Image Source: Angell and Korshover, 1978

The Northern Hemisphere cooling trend reached an amplitude of -0.6°C from 1958 to 1963 according to 150,000 to 200,000 measurements per month for 92% of the atmosphere (Starr and Oort, 1973).

Image Source: Starr and Oort, 1973

Today these recorded 1960-1965 and 1958-1963 cooling trends have been fully erased and replaced with a slight warming or pause.

Image Source: NASA
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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Data Manipulation | 3 Responses

Germany’s Growing Energy Supply Uncertainty: Electric Heater Sales Up 1000%…In The Summertime!

By P Gosselin on 14. August 2022

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Germany’s “disastrous” energy policy

Nowadays in Germany, talk is swirling over whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD Socialists) still has confidence in Economics Minister Robert Habeck’s capability to run the country’s energy policy, which many are calling a disaster. 

1000% rise in sales of electric heaters – in the summertime!

Germany’s summer is approaching an end and the heating season is just weeks away. The gas supply has been disrupted and its future is very much in question. Germans are deeply worried about how they will keep warm this coming winter.

Already the media are reporting that electric heaters are flying off the store shelves at an unprecedented rate – in the summertime! For example, online daily The Hamburger Abendblatt here reports: “Electric heater online retailers and DIY stores report explosion in demand – increases of up to 1000 percent.”

“Disastrous” energy policy

Politically this is worrying Chancellor Scholz, who is now getting far more involved in energy policy – a responsibility normally handled by the Economics Minister. According to Blackout News here, “Habeck’s record on energy policy so far is, objectively speaking, disastrous” and there are signs that Chancellor Scholz no longer trusts his his Green Party Economics Minister, Robert Habeck.

Currently Minister Habeck is leading the drive to shut down coal and nuclear power plants, but is failing to find suitable natural gas replacements.

“His grandly announced gas deal with Qatar has collapsed. The announced expansion of renewable energies is stagnating at a low level,” reports Blackout News.  “Energy prices have virtually exploded and many consumers are afraid they will no longer be able to pay their bills.”

Habeck has since been forced to do a U-turn and bring coal-fired power plants that had already been shut down back online.

Anger risks leading to “right wing” street protests

Habeck’s aim is to have the country’s heating systems be powered by at least 65 percent renewable energy already by 2024. The industry warns that the target ignores reality. Blackout News also warns: “At the latest, when the first people take to the streets in the fall because of energy prices, Scholz will have to act on the issue of the Minister of Economics.”

The German government is already sensing a growing level of anger among its citizens and their readiness to vent it out on the streets. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD Socialists) recently told the Handelsblatt: “Of course, there is a danger that those who already shouted out their contempt against democracy in the Corona era, often traveling side by side with right-wing extremists, will try to abuse the sharply rising prices as a new mobilization theme.”




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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics, Green Follies | 6 Responses

More Covid Jabs For You, But Not For Us! Germany’s Health Minister Last Boosted 9 Months Ago!

By P Gosselin on 13. August 2022

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Germany’s Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach claims in public he has been Covid vaccinated four times and urgently recommends everyone to follow his example.

Unfortunately for Lauterbach, who recently struggled with a bout of the COVID infection himself, it appears he has  been vaccinated only 3 times. His last shot was administered in November of last year!

Image cropped from Berliner Zeitung.

According to Germany’s Berliner Zeitung here, “A check of his digital vaccination certificates with the CovPassCheck app has now revealed that at least the last digitally noted vaccination took place more than 270 days ago, i.e. in mid-November 2021. It is noted as a ‘booster vaccination.'”

During a press conference last Friday, the health minister unwittingly showed off his digital vaccination certificate on his mobile device, complete with QR code, before dozens of cameras. Like everyone else’s certificates, it too can be checked with just a few clicks using CovPassCheck.

Oops, CovPassCheck showed his last vaccination was 271 days ago, long before the fourth vaccination was even in public discussion.

The Berliner Zeitung reports that journalist Janina Lionello wanted to know how long it had been since Lauterbach’s last vaccination, “but the Federal Ministry of Health refuses to provide this information,” she said, and quoted a ministry spokesman: “Please understand that we can’t go into details about medical matters.”

Under Lauterbach’s plans for the future, regular citizens wouldn’t have the luxury of such privacy, and would be denied access to a wide range of public venues.

Recently the vaccine fanatic health minister even called for everyone getting a fourth shot, and to not wait for the new vaccines to arrive later this fall. Moreover, he sparked controversy when he suggested a booster every 3 months thereafter. Lauterbach told German ZDF television that “only freshly vaccinated is well vaccinated.”

When asked to explain what was meant by freshly vaccinated, Lauterbach told ZDF: “According to the definition we use here, it means three months. That means at least the third vaccination or another vaccination must be no more than three months ago. Then you have a good probability that the vaccinated person himself is well protected and not as much at risk of infection as someone who has been vaccinated longer ago. Or who has only had one vaccination.”

Later Lauterbach quickly backpedaled, insisting that a jab every three months would be nonsense.




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Posted in Pandemic | 3 Responses

Doomsday Climate Predictions Meltdown: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Reaches 12-Year Mid-August High

By P Gosselin on 12. August 2022

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According to Al Gore, based on statements and “science” from “leading climate experts”, the Arctic was supposed to be ice-free in the summer already years ago.

Now that the summer ice melt season in the Arctic will end soon, by the middle of next month, it’s a good time to see how Al Gore’s prediction is faring. To do this we look at the latest from data the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC):

 Source: NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Chart

Snowfan here zooms in on the chart for greater detail and reports that for this date, ice extent in the Arctic stands at a 12-year high:

It would be accurate to say that Al Gore’s prediction has turned out to be on par from what you’d expect from a swindling fortune teller reading tea leaves and a crystal ball.




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Posted in Arctic | 23 Responses

Vaccinated Young Adults 18-24 Are 41-44 Times More Likely To Be Afflicted With Myocarditis Than Unvaccinated

By Kenneth Richard on 11. August 2022

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The dangers of the mRNA COVID vaccines for young people has been increasingly exposed.

Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart that may lead to irregular heart rhythms and a reduction in the heart’s capacity to pump blood. It is a potentially life-threatening or life-shortening injury that received little public attention until recent years.

Prior to the widespread availability of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for all age groups (March 2020 to January 2021), there was no increased risk (and perhaps a slightly lower risk) of myocarditis following COVID-19 infection among the unvaccinated vs. control group (Tuvali et al., 2022).

Image Source: Tuvali et al., 2022

Ever since the COVID vaccines became available to the younger age groups, physicians have begun reporting much higher rates of myocarditis among the vaccinated. Males and females 18 to 24 are, respectively, 44 and 41 times more likely to be afflicted with myocarditis than their unvaccinated peers (Le Vu et al., 2022). The rates of vaccine-associated myocarditis are reported to be as high as 1 in 5,900 second doses.

Image Source: Le Vu et al., 2022

Another new study indicates the rate of myocarditis or pericarditis is 1 in 3,339 for males 18 to 24 receiving 2 doses of the Moderna vaccine, and it is 1 in 6,262 for males 12 to 17.

Image Source: Buchan et al., 2022

By January, 2022, one year after the vaccines became available, there were already over 1,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers reporting on mRNA vaccine-induced injuries like myocarditis. Now that the censorial proclivities of governments and health authorities has waned, the literature is teeming with vaccine injury reports.

Image Source: InformedChoiceAustralia

As an indication of what may become a trend worldwide, just this week Denmark has banned COVID-19 vaccination for children.

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Posted in Pandemic | 2 Responses

Infertility Pandemic: Number Of Births In Germany For January-April 2022 Period Plummets 12%

By P Gosselin on 10. August 2022

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Germany has seen a “dramatic drop” in birthrate during the first 4 months of 2022, according to transitionnews.de here, leading to rising suspicions over COVID vaccine safety. 

“Compared to the previous year, the number of births has fallen by 12 percent – that’s about 25,000 fewer births in the first four months of 2022,” reports Sternfried Müller of transitionnews.de.

Chart source: transitionnews.de

The above chart shows the number of births for the January-April period each year since 2018. During the Corona years of 2020 and 2021, Germany saw a rise in the number of births, climbing to 250,000 births. But in 2022, the number of births mysteriously plummeted a whopping 12%!

Something unusual must have triggered the phenomenon. Going back 9 months prior to the January-April 2022 period takes us to the April to July 2021 period, which coincides to COVID vaccination of younger adults in earnest. Remarkably, Germany’s media have been silent on the latest published statistics, issued by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The next transitionnews.de chart shows the monthly number of births and just how dismally 2022 lags so far compared to the previous years:

Chart source: transitionnews.de

A number of reasons have been proposed to explain the dramatic decline, among them fewer marriages. But that remains highly doubtful.

There are increasing suspicions that it is vaccine linked, as some studies already suggest: see here and here.

For the time being German authorities obstinately continue to remain in denial mode when it comes the the adverse effects of the COVID vaccines. Currently the Ministry of Health is gearing up to roll out another mass wave of vaccinations and restrictions in the run-up to the fall flu season.

See entire article at transitionnews.de

Also read here.




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Posted in Pandemic | 16 Responses

Models, Climate Scientists Wrong Again…New Study Finds Jet Stream Strengthening, Not Weakening

By P Gosselin on 9. August 2022

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Alarmist climate research centers like the Potsdam Institute and the unquestioning media have been claiming for years that the Jet Stream is weakening, hence this would lead to greater weather extremes across the northern hemisphere due to blocking. Responsible for this of course is man-made global warming.

Hat-tip: The Klimaschau

But a recent paper by Samantha Hallam et al published in the journal Climate Dynamics looks at the seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land for the period 1871–2011. The authors were unable to find any weakening of the sort climate alarmists have been warning about.

Quite to the contrary, the authors in fact found that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased in average speed by 8% to 132 mph. The authors found the 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis and that jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms −1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America. Over the North Pacific, no increase was observed.

Source: Figure 9, Climate Dynamics.

Moreover, the Jet Stream was found to have shifted northward by some 330 kilometers. Overall, the paper’s findings contradict the claims of a weakening Jet Stream regularly made by the climate alarmists and their media minions.

Applying climate alarmist science, we’d have to conclude now, due to the strengthening Jet Stream, less weather extremes should be expected. This would be good news of course. But don’t expect the fear-porn media to look at this.




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Posted in Models, Natural Oceanic Oscillations, Natural Variability | 12 Responses

Scientists: The Global Warming Since 1985 Cannot Be Attributed To CO2 Forcing

By Kenneth Richard on 8. August 2022

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Cloud modulation of shortwave radiation and greenhouse effect forcing has largely been the determining factor in the global warming of the last 45 years. Not CO2.

CO2 forcing and its effect on surface temperatures is detailed in analyses of changes in clear-sky radiation only because all-sky radiation effects that include clouds (and the real-world atmosphere has clouds) overshadow the CO2 impact (Feldman et al., 2015, Harries et al., 2001).

Late 20th Century Climate Forcing

Per satellite observations, from 1985 to 1998 the “background clear-sky OLR [outgoing longwave radiation] was essentially unchanged” (Wang et al., 2002). In other words, any variations in OLR attributed to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations were not detectable.

In contrast, cloud vertical distributions explained 40% of increased tropical outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 60% could be explained by the emissivity of clouds, which means OLR changes were “most likely due entirely to changes in tropical cloud characteristics” and “cannot be attributed to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.”

Furthermore, there was a decrease in reflected shortwave radiation (RSR) of -2.4 W/m² per decade observed from 1985 to 1999, which means there was a +3.6 W/m² increase in solar radiation absorbed by the Earth system during these 14 years. This can easily explain the warming during this period.

Image Source: Wang et al., 2002

Cess and Udelhofen (2003) independently affirmed greenhouse gas forcing could not have been the cause of the 1985-1999 climate changes because the greenhouse effect forcing actually declined during this period.

“…the negative trend of G [greenhouse effect anomalies] indicates that the atmospheric greenhouse effect is temporarily [1985-1999] decreasing, despite the fact that greenhouse gasses are increasing.”

The declining greenhouse effect forcing is consistent with the decreasing trend in cloud cover, which, in turn, may be a manifestation of “internal unforced variability” or “natural variability on decadal time scales.”

And, as Wang and colleagues also noted, Cess and Udelhofen documented a positive trend in absorbed shortwave radiation (“ASW”) from 1985-1999.

Image Source: Cess and Udelhofen, 2003

21st Century Climate Forcing

Song et al. (2016) reported then when all greenhouse effect forcing contributors (CO2, CH4, water vapor, and clouds) are considered (“all-sky”) there was a declining overall greenhouse effect forcing trend (shown in red) from 2003-2014. The increasing trend in greenhouse effect forcing is only realized in an imaginary world with only anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO2, CH4) and no clouds (“clear-sky”).

And, once again, the “dominant contributor” to the greenhouse effect forcing “hiatus” was the cloud cover variation.

Image Source: Song et al., 2016

Loeb and colleagues (2021) determined the (uncertain) positive trend in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) from 2005 to 2019, 0.5 W/m² ±0.47 W/m² per decade−1, is “primarily due to an increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds.”

CERES satellite data indicate clouds and surface albedo account for 89% of the absorbed solar radiation trend in the 21st century, whereas anthropogenic greenhouse gases account for but a tiny fraction of the trends in combined absorbed solar radiation and greenhouse effect forcing (reductions in emitted thermal radiation) during this period.

This very small human emissions/greenhouse gas impact is represented by the red “Other” (“trace gases”) bars in the graph below. In emitted thermal radiation, graph (e) shows the greenhouse gas impact is effectively offset by the cloud influence; both factors are cancelled out by temperature changes. This leaves the increase in absorbed solar radiation shown in graph (d) due to natural variations in clouds and surface albedo (SFC) as the primary driver(s) of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux forcing during the last two decades.

Image Source: Loeb et al., 2021

Other scientists (Dübal and Vahrenholt, 2021) have also concluded that the positive TOA net flux (+1.42 W/m²) from increasing downwelling shortwave (SW) facilitated by a drop in cloudiness has been the “major driving effect,” “dominating influence,” and “major heating cause” explaining the 2001-2019 ocean heat content increase (240 ZJ).

The authors note these CERES satellite observations “conflict with the assumption further global warming originates mainly from the LW [longwave] radiation capture caused by greenhouse gases, i.e., a decline in outgoing LW.” In fact, just as other scientists have determined, the LW or greenhouse effect impact has been negative in the 21st century; it has contributed a net cooling influence (-1.1 W/m²) over the last two decades.

Image Source: Dübal and Vahrenholt, 2021

These studies are further supported by a geoscientist (Swift, 2018), who documented there has been a “decreasing greenhouse factor” or a weakening of the greenhouse effect since 1979. In contrast, the “increasing absorbed solar radiation, caused by a lowering of the bond [cloud] albedo, was the driver of increased surface temperature during the period 1979-2015, and also of the increase in ocean heat content.”

Image Source: Swift, 2018
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Posted in Cloud Climate Influence, CO2 and GHG, Natural Variability | 2 Responses

413 German Physicians, Healthcare Workers, Call For Immediate Vaccine Suspension…””Serious Side Effects…Consequential Damage”

By P Gosselin on 7. August 2022

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Germany’s Hauke publishing house has published an open letter from 413 physicians, addressed to Thuringia’s Prime Minister, harshly criticizing the government’s Corona policy and call for the immediate suspension of Covid vaccinations due to “serious side effects and consequential damage”. 

The signatories are all from one single German state, Thuringia, and were brought together by the fear of “the so-called facility-based mandatory vaccination” which they claim “has long been scientifically untenable, and thereby continue to bring suffering to those affected and their patients.”

The 413 physicians blast the government for ignoring the “growing number of studies critical of the measures or studies on side effects of the so-called vaccinations” and how “the so-called vaccinations continue to be touted as the only ‘panacea’ against the SARS-Cov2 virus.”

The group of physicians and health professionals also remind the government that they are “endangering the health of people” and doing so “to an unprecedented degree”. They expressed grave concerns over the safety of the COVID vaccines, stating that their harmful effects have now gone far beyond “suspicion” in terms of risk, and: “Colleagues from our group could tell you here about the growing number of patients with vaccine-related serious side effects and consequential damage.”

The group of 413 are calling for an investigation on the vaccine’s safety and blast the authorities for remaining silent, even that they have been abundantly warned, writing: “This does nothing to build confidence in your government’s policies.”

They add: “The answers of the state government to the many small inquiries of the member of the state parliament Dr. Ute Bergner on the subject of Corona show a shocking picture of ignorance, many data are not available to the state government again and again. ”

The signatories also share the opinion that “parts of science, politics, leading media, pharmaceutical industry have failed.”

Read entire open letter here (German). 




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Posted in Pandemic | 8 Responses

Pacific Typhoons Defy Climate Experts’ Dire Forecasts…Trending Downward 70 Years!

By P Gosselin on 6. August 2022

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Charts by Kirye

Pacific typhoons have been trending downward for 70 years 

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) presents the latest data for Pacific typhoons — going back to 1951.

This summer climate alarmists in Europe have been chasing “heat waves”, likely because hurricanes and typhoons have been on the quiet side.

Today we look at the data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the number of typhoons formed in the Pacific in the month of July, now that the July data are available:

Clearly the world has warmed somewhat since 1951, but contrary to what the climate bedwetters claim, the trend in typhoons has been downward – suggesting that a warmer climate leads to less Pacific storms in terms of typhoons formed. This is the opposite of what climate “experts” said would happen.

Next we look at the number of typhoons formed in the Pacific from January to July, going back to 1951:

 

Though the data for 2022 are not yet complete,  we look as a reminder at the number of typhoons formed each year up through 2020:

Data source: JMA.

The climate experts have been wrong, and the media have been misleading us. Typhoons are not intensifying and becoming more frequent.




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Posted in Hurricanes/Tornados, Misc. | 8 Responses

Scientists: Enhancing Earth’s Surface Reflectiveness 32x More Effective Than Eliminating GHG Emissions

By Kenneth Richard on 4. August 2022

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Adding reflectors to roofs and pavements and similar strategies could globally reflect 87 W/m² more incoming solar radiation than is reflected on an annual basis currently, cooling the surface. In contrast, the sum of the accumulated annual anthropogenic radiative forcing from greenhouse gases (GHG) since 1750 is 2.72 W/m².

A new study analyzes the effectiveness of global warming reduction strategies via albedo modification – enhancing the reflection of incoming solar radiation – using reflectors on roofs and pavements, shade structures, foam water covers, and landscape modification.

The authors suggest that while the background reflected solar radiation is 21.7 W/m² globally (per ERA5 observations), these proposed surface albedo modifications could enhance the annual global outgoing solar radiation by 87 W/m² – to 109 W/m². This is “a factor of five larger” than the unaltered reflectivity. In some localities – especially in cities – the reduction of global warming potential through albedo modification could be over 200 W/m².

Meanwhile, the authors point out that the sum of the accumulated annual anthropogenic radiative forcing since 1750 is 2.72 W/m², a warming effect applied to the reduction of outgoing longwave radiation. Reducing the annual incoming solar radiation by 87 W/m² more than the background rate would thus have a 32 times larger impact on Earth’s radiation imbalance than all the accumulated forcing from anthropogenic GHG emissions.

Considering 40 years of governmental policies designed to reduce GHG emissions and transition to a “green” energy future have only meant that “global net emissions continue to rise” anyway, an albedo modification strategy that could eliminate (and then some) the impact of anthropogenic emissions altogether would appear to be the wiser approach.

This assumes the intent of governments’ GHG mitigation policies is actually to reduce the positive energy imbalance and thus global warming. Is it?

Image Source: Smoliak et al., 2022
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Posted in Emissions, Solar Sciences | 17 Responses

Tokyo Midsummer Hasn’t Warmed In Decades. And: The Missing Hurricanes”.

By P Gosselin on 3. August 2022

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Charts by Kirye

Continuously increasing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels is supposed to be causing warming all over the globe right now, so we should be seeing it in most of the trends.

But often we don’t. The globe, in fact, has cooled somewhat since the El Nino of 2015/16. The media refuse to report that.

One example of no warming is the midsummer mean for Tokyo and its rural Hachijojima island in the Pacific.

Tokyo

Looking at the July mean temperature trend for Tokyo itself, using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and not the adjusted datasets from NASA, we have the following:

You can check the data yourself. The source is here.

As we can see, July mean temperature in Tokyo has been declining moderately for almost 3 decades.

A century of no warming: Hachijojima

Also for Hachijojima, which belongs to Tokyo and is located in the middle of the ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, we plot the mean July temperature going back almost a century, i.e. long before CO2 emissions by industry began in earnest:

Source: JMA.

Lo and behold: July mean temperature at this rural island has in fact dipped slightly over the past 95 years. Check it out yourself if you don’t believe it. Above is the link to JMA’s official data, and not the altered rubbish from the U.S. sources.

Very slow start for 2022 hurricane season

On another note, the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a very slow start. According to the climate crazies though, we were supposed to be getting battered by tropical storms by now, and like never before in history. But here too, nothing unusual is going on.

The Washington Post has to report that it’s been slow, writing: “Forecasters said the broad weather patterns governing the oceans and atmosphere would come together to boost activity; experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University predicted activity above to well above average.” But have to admit, “The only thing that seems to be missing from a busy Atlantic hurricane season? The hurricanes.”

Friday we’ll look at typhoons in the Pacific, something the WaPo doesn’t like reporting on.




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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Hurricanes/Tornados | 12 Responses

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