Climate Protection Goes Medieval…Ushers In New Age Of Indulgences And Almsgiving

The other day as I was looking to book a hotel in the city of Hamburg I came across the Novum Style Hotel Hamburg.

What caught my eye was that the booking and price conditions allow guests the option of offsetting the CO2 emissions that their stay produces.

According to the Novum’s reservation page and price calculator, a two-night stay in a “Style Class” room (for example) from November 25 to 27 costs 458.00 euros, but that such a stay would produce some 144 kilograms of climate-damaging CO2. But not to worry, for only €3.86 extra, it is possible to offset these emissions and allow you as the guest to sleep soundly without any burdening of your green conscience.


Pay it and you’ll feel as if you’ve done a great deed and played your part in protecting our supposedly increasingly agitated climate. You’ll then be able to relax with a clear conscience as you go sightseeing along the Reeperbahn or Herbertstrasse.

Thie Novum’s CO2 offset scheme of course reminds us of the old scam of almsgiving and paying indulgences to the Catholic Church to dodge going to Hell and suffering eternally.

Indeed the Novum’s site here explains that “climate change is the greatest challenge of the 21st century” and hints that it is all causing “increasing weather extremes, glacier melt, more frequent droughts and floods” and many other terrible things. However, this all could be avoided as the site assures visitors that it’s a “small contribution with a big impact“. The Novum site adds:

For offseting the CO2 emissions, additional costs of only 0.5 – 2.0% of the accommodations expenses are incurred.”

What a deal!*

Earmarked for climate protection projects

So what happens to the CO2 offsetting €3.86 that guests agree to pay?

The Hotel Novum’s site writes that it will “support a climate protection project that is certified according to international standards, one that otherwise would not be possible without your contribution.”

The project is proven to save CO2 and is checked by an independent third party on a regular basis.”

And naturally there’s full transparency, the Novum Hotel site promises. Guests who choose to have their emissions offset receive an ID number, which they can later enter at to make sure that the voluntary contribution indeed leads to “climate neutrality”.

You can precisely check the level of greenhouse gases resulting from your overnight stay and which climate protection project was used for offsetting.”

Note that we are not singling out the Hotel Novum here, as surely many other hotels now offer their guests these conscience-soothing CO2 offsetting schemes. Also a host of other industries, like airlines, also offer the opportunity of climate almsgiving.

 * (Note: No money back guarantee).

Former German Economics Minister Rips Renewable Energy Policy! “Capital Destruction Of Difficult-To-Fathom Dimensions”!

Criticism and harsh words on Germany’s out-of-control renewable energy policy continues to mount and grow in volume as the energy sector approaches potential catastrophe.


Germany’s former federal minister for economics and labour, Wolfgang Clement, slams current German energy policy. Photo: http://www.bmwa.bund.htm (free use).

Cologne’s online Kölner Stadt Anzeiger (KSta) here reports on a speech made by Germany’s former federal economics minister Wolfgang Clement on the subject of Germany’s green energy policy before the IGBCE-Angestelltengruppe Fortuna trade union group, which represents Germany’s once formidable mining, energy and chemicals sector. Clement earlier served as the country’s “super economics minister” under Gerhard Schroeder, from 2002–2005.

Energy policy “perversions”

The 76-year old socialist SPD party leader did not mince any words as he blasted Germany’s “perversions of its current energy policy” and “gigantic faulty developments” under the current government, led by Angela Merkel. What started as a reasonable shift over to renewable energies some 15 years ago has since morphed into a development that has totally run amok, the former federal minister described.

The current energy policy is marred by “unreasonableness and totally lacks basis” and is characteriszed by “a go-it-alone stoppage of nuclear energy” that he called “needless” because Germany faces no such catastrophe like the reactors at Fukushima.

“Capital destruction of difficult-to-fathom dimensions”

Clement told the audience “that with respect to cutting CO2 emissions, nuclear power in fact should be continued“, the online KStA writes. Later the former economics minister stated that the government got “carried away with the subsidies” for green energies. The KStA adds:

The ‘huge subsidies’ in the meantime cost consumers more than 23 billion euros annually’ and ‘especially lignite coal never needed such subsidies.'”

Clement blasted current energy policy for “putting climate protection too high above economy and supply stability” and that it is “a capital destruction of difficult-to-fathom dimensions”  He added that “it would be unthinkable in any other country on the planet.“ The KStA writes that the former super minister hopes for a “transition away from the energy transition” and that Germany’s Rhineland industrial belt survives.

He called on the trade unions “to fight with all their strength“.

The KStA writes that Clement’s call was greeted with great applause.

Defying Climate Models, Greenland Cooled By -1.5°C During 1940-1995 As Human CO2 Emissions Rates Rose Dramatically



                                                           Above image  from Hanna et al., 2011  (Greenland Ice Sheet)

In 1942, eight U.S. WWII aircraft (2 bombers, 6 fighter planes) emergency-landed on the Southwestern coast of Greenland after encountering severe weather.   The crews were rescued and the planes ultimately had to be abandoned at the landing site.  So there the planes sat on the Greenland ice sheet, undetected, for more than 4 decades.  The active search for the WWII planes had been ongoing since 1981, but it wasn’t until 1988 that a group of artifact enthusiasts (Greenland Expedition Society) were able to finally locate the planes.  The primary reason why it was so excruciatingly difficult to find the planes is that the explorers  had originally assumed the planes were buried under ice that was relatively close to the ice sheet’s surface.  They weren’t.  When the planes were finally found in 1988, 46 years after crash-landing on the Greenland ice sheet, they were buried under 260 feet (79 meters) of ice. In other words, between 1942 and 1988, the Greenland ice sheet gained mass at a rate of 57 feet (17 meters) per decade at that location.  In 1992, the planes were impressively pulled out of the ice part-by -part.  In that 4-year span between 1988 (discovery) and 1992 (recovery), the Greenland ice sheet had advanced with another 8 feet of ice, as the planes were 268 feet beneath the ice sheet surface when they were rescued.

It should come as no surprise that the Greenland ice sheet gained so many billion tons of ice during the 50 years from 1942 to 1992.  After all, the scientific literature has been replete with records of rapidly declining Greenland temperature trends between the 1940s and the 1990s, which followed a period of especially rapid warming during the 1920s and 1930s (that was greater in rapidity and magnitude when compared to the Greenland ice sheet warming trend in the last decade or two).

These trends are the opposite of what should be expected from anthropogenic forcing in climate models.  After all, the rapid 1920s to 1930s Greenland warming occurred while anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained flat at about 1 GtC/year (gigatons of carbon), whereas the 1940 to 1995 Greenland cooling period was accompanied by human CO2 emissions rates that rose by more than a factor of 6, or from 1 GtC/year to well over 6 GtC/year (see here).  Succinctly, Greenland warmed rapidly while CO2 emissions were flat, and Greenland cooled rapidly while CO2 emissions were significantly rising.   As Kahl et al. (1993) write in their paper entitled “Absence of evidence for greenhouse warming over the Arctic Ocean in the past 40 years” [1950-1990], climate models “do not adequately incorporate the physical processes that affect the polar regions.”

There were higher Greenland Ice Sheet melting rates in the 1920s and 1930s than in recent decades.

It should be noted that the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance trends are calculated using a baseline period of 1961-1990.  The problem with this is, of course, that the 1961-1990 period was unusually cool in Greenland — about 1 to 2°C cooler than the 1920s to 1930s period.  Therefore, any estimate of surface mass balance for the post-1990 period will necessarily be biased towards greater melt rates.  Had the 1920s to 1930s period been used as a baseline, the recent decades of warming would likely only mean that the Greenland ice sheet has returned to balance, and is not rapidly losing mass as is often claimed.

Fettweis et al., 2008

“These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate….The results show that the GrIS surface mass loss in the 1930s is likely to have been more significant than currently due to a combination of very warm and dry years.”


Below, there are graphs from several papers indicating that Greenland cooled between the 1940s and 1990s.

Box, 2002

“Temporal and spatial variability are analysed in Greenland instrumental temperature records from 24 coastal and three ice sheet locations. … The standard period 1961–90 was marked by 1–2°C statistically significant cooling.”


Dahl-Jensen et al., 1998


Drinkwater, 2006 (Greenland)


Scientists have found that the overall cooling trend for Greenland since 1940 may have extended to the early 2000s.

Chylek et al., 2004

A significant and rapid temperature increase was observed at all Greenland stations between 1920 and 1930. The average annual temperature rose between 2 and 4°C in less than ten years.”

A substantial decrease in the surface air temperature occurred over the Greenland ice sheet summit in summer season during the period of available measurements from 1987 to 2001. The average temperature of the warmest month and the summer average (June, July and August) temperature show a decreasing trend of 3.0 and 2.2°C/decade between 1987 and 2001 (Figure 8). This summer cooling of the ice sheet at the Summit is accompanied by winter warming at the rate of about 2°C per decade. The result is a substantial decrease in the annual temperature range (Figure 8) from 34°C in 1987 to less than 28°C in 2001. The cause of these rapid changes and decrease in temperature range is undetermined, however, a change in cloud cover is a possibility.”


Hanna and Cappelen, 2003

“Analysis of new data for eight stations in coastal southern Greenland, 1958–2001, shows a significant cooling (trend-line change −1.29°C for the 44 years), as do sea-surface temperatures in the adjacent part of the Labrador Sea”


As recently as 1992-2002, the whole Greenland ice sheet continued to gain mass (at a rate of +11 Gt/year), which meant a net negative contribution to sea level rise from the Greenland ice sheet during that period.

Zwally et al., 2005

“Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) [1992-2002] … of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensingSatellites ERS-1 and -2. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (–42 ± 2 Gt/yr–1 below the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/yr–1 above the ELA) witha small overall mass gain (+11  ± 3 Gt/yr–1; –0.03 mm a–1SLE (sea-level equivalent)).”

The subsequent Greenland warming trend (1995 – present) after 50 or 60 years of cooling has been characterized as smaller in magnitude and rapidity when compared to the 1920s and 1930s warming trend.

Box et al., 2009

“Meteorological station records and regional climate model output are combined to develop a continuous 168-yr (1840–2007) spatial reconstruction of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean Greenland ice sheet near-surface air temperatures. The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming.”


Since 2007, Greenland temperature trends have been flat (as shown below in Lim et al., 2016), indicating that the current warm period in Greenland has apparently plateaued and not superseded the early 20th century warming.

Lim et al., 2016



Finally, below are a few graphs of the last few thousand years which indicate that modern Greenland temperatures are not unprecedented, and in fact modern temperatures are still some of the coldest of the Holocene.

Levy et al., 2013  (Greenland Ice Sheet)


Lecavalier et al., 2013 (North Greenland)


Larsen et al., 2015   (Southern Greenland)

“Southern Greenland proxy-inferred atmospheric temperatures also peaked between ca. 7 and 4 cal. kyr B.P. at 2–4 °C higher than present



Green Energy Thrill Is Gone! Once Overwhelming Support For German ‘Energiewende’ Fades, Study Finds

wind-turbine-kaputtThere’s more trouble with the Energiewende. The thrill is gone!

It used to be that the German Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) once enjoyed overwhelming support among the population. However, a recent national survey conducted by Germany’s University of Stuttgart, in cooperation with the University of Münster and two Fraunhofer institutes, shows a nation that has become split over the bold project.

Only 29% of those surveyed now see themselves as supporters of the Energiewende.

A total of 2009 persons were surveyed by telephone on a variety of aspects concerning perception of the Energiewende, e.g. wind parks in the countryside, in coastal areas and offshore, solar energy and grid revamping. Scientists at the Zentrum für Interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung (Center for Interdisciplenary Risks and Innovation Research) at the University of Stuttgart (ZIRIUS), the University of Münster and two Fraunhofer institutes for System and Innovation Research (ISI) and for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) reached the following results:

29 percent of the German population are classified as supporters of the Energiewende. Another 29 percent are ambivalent with regards to the Energiewende and the related technologies, and thus are viewed as being undecided, while 27 percent can be classified as critics of the Energiewende.

This is a far cry from overwhelming support and shows growing disenchantment with the transformation. What should be worrisome is that the big brunt of the costs have yet to hit.

Already 29 percent of those surveyed said that they are no longer willing to accept to pay more for electricity in order contribute to the success of the Energiewende, the survey found. Less than half, 47 percent, of German citizens say they are willing to pay 50 euros per year more for helping the Energiewende to succeed. That figure, the study notes,  is only under the condition that the total costs of the Energiewende get shared fairly between industry and the citizenry, and among the citizenry itself.

Trust in the main players of the Energiewende (large energy companies and utilities) and fairness are the most important factors in realizing acceptance. Refusal to pay or non-acceptance are not irrational defensive reactions, the study finds, but rather are based on sound reasons.

Original publication:
Sonnberger, Marco; Ruddat, Michael (2016): Die gesellschaftliche Wahrnehmung der Energiewende – Ergebnisse einer deutschlandweiten Repräsentativbefragung. In: Stuttgarter Beiträge zur Risiko- und Nachhaltigkeitsforschung, Nr. 34.

Further information:
University Stuttgart, ZIRIUS – Zentrum für Interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung, Dr. Marco Sonnberger, Tel. (+49) 711/685-84297, E-mail and Dr. Michael Ruddat, Tel. (+49) 711/685-8326, E-mail.


Early Europe Winter? …And Greenland Sees “Record” 12 Billion Tonnes Ice Growth In A Single Day!

Yesterday veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi brought to our attention an article by the Washington Post here, where it reports forecasters are warning that the coming winter “could get nasty” for the Washington D.C. area.

Although the National Weather Service predicts “equal chances of a cold or mild winter”, private meteorologists warn the winter could get bitter. There’s a real debate going on.

The Post cites meteorologist Judah Cohen, who uses the Arctic Oscillation as a predictor of winters, writing that greater-than-normal October Eurasian snow cover tends to lead to large blocking highs that steer cold air southwards into the middle latitude regions.

Early winter for Europe?

After a summerlike warm September in Central Europe, things have cooled down significantly, with Central European temperatures running below normal so far this October. German climate skeptic site here writes that there are now signs of an early winter hitting Central Europe, with freezing temperatures and snow forecast for early November.

Current models show a major storm positioned over northeast Europe, which would send a large mass of cold air with temperatures at -35°C at the 5500m level (500 hPa) over large parts of Europe:

GFS-Prognose des Bodenluftdrucks und der Temperaturen in 500 hPa (ca. 5500 m) vom 20.10.2016 für den 1.11.2016. Zwischen einem kräftigen Sturmtief über Norddosteuropa und hohem Druck über dem Nordatlantik wird in breitem Strom hochreichende Polarluft nach Europa geführt. Quelle: wie vor


What follows is the forecast 2m temperature chart for November 1st:


Today’s GFS model runs (below) also continue to show cold setting in early November:



This forecast is 10 – 15 days out, and so naturally there is a fair amount of uncertainty involved. But it tells Europeans that maybe it’s a good idea not to delay putting the winter tires on. Snow is hardly a thing of the past.

The cold temperatures would lead to precipitation likely falling as snow, even in the lowland regions:

GFS-Prognose der Niederschläge vom 20.10.2016 für den 1.11.2016. Vor allem in Süden und im Norden Deutsachlands werden Niderschlähe erwartet, die bei Tmin um oder unter 0°C bis ins Tiefland als Schnee fallen können. Quelle:

12 billion tonnes of ice in a single day!

One thing is certain: Greenland just got bombed by a “record” snowfall (hat-tip: wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung), thanks to what used to be hurricane Nicole. some 12 billion tonnes of “record ice growth in a single day” – see chart:

Die akkumulierte Massebilanz des Grönlandeisschildes zeigt am 19.10.2016 mit rund 8 Gigatonnen den höchsten Tageszuwachs seit Beginnn der Messungen (obere Grafik, blaue Linie . Die graue Fläche ist der Bereich einer Standardabweichung vom rechnerischen Tagesmittel (Mean/Durchschnitt – dunkelgraue Linie). Originaltext: “Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Quelle:

Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Source:


Japanese Scientist Explains “Trick” Behind 3.7 Watts Per Square Meter Forcing At The Tropopause

Trick of the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 at the tropopause

by Kyoji Kimoto

Radiative forcing is defined as 3.7W/m2 for 2xCO2 at the tropopause by the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) to avoid the usage of the surface radiative forcing of around 1W/m2. It is greatly reduced from the radiative forcing of around 4W/m2 at the tropopause due to IR absorption overlap between CO2 and water vapor plentifully existing at the surface.

Kiehl & Ramanathan (1982) developed a basic idea of the IPCC trick to overcome Newell & Dopplick (1979) claiming a climate sensitivity of 0.24K with the surface radiative forcing of around 1 W/m2 as shown by the following history of the AGW theory.

1959: Plass wrote:

In addition, nearly all water vapor remains close to the ground, while carbon dioxide diffuses more evenly through the atmosphere. Thus throughout most of the atmosphere carbon dioxide is the main factor determining changes in the radiation flux.

 Wiscombe (2013) explains the Plass’s idea as follows in his lecture at NASA.

Plass also notes that CO2 greenhouse action is relatively unimpeded above 2-3km.

1967: Manabe & Wetherald obtained a climate sensitivity of 2.4K with one dimensional radiative-convective model (1DRCM) utilizing the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 giving uniform warming throughout the troposphere and the surface. They did not mention the Plass’s idea that CO2 greenhouse effect is greatly reduced at the surface due to IR absorption overlap with water vapor because their careless assumption of the fixed lapse rate prevented their study from self-criticism of uniform warming (see Fig.2).

1975: Manabe & Wetherald obtained an averaged climate sensitivity of 2.9K and polar climate sensitivity of 7-9K with 3DGCM which is based on the 1DRCM study of Manabe & Wetherald (1967).

1979: Newell & Dopplick obtained a climate sensitivity of 0.24K with the surface radiative forcing of around 1 W/m2 to criticize Manabe & Wetherald (1975).

1979: Ramanathan et al. wrote:

For example, with a doubling of CO2, Manabe & Wetherald (1975) estimates an increase in surface temperature of 2.0-2.5K within equatorial regions. From Fig.5 the surface heating of 1.1 W/m2 at the equator, due to the radiative effects of doubled CO2, can cause a maximum surface warming of about 0.2K, and hence roughly 90% of the 2.0-2.5K surface warming obtained by Manabe & Wetherald (1975) is caused by the atmospheric feedback processes described above.

1981: Ramanathan obtained the following surface warming with the feedback mechanism shown by Fig.1 copied from his review in 1998.



1981: Hansen et al. showed a climate sensitivity of 1.9K with 1DRCM study following Manabe & Wetherald (1967) utilizing the radiative forcing of 4 W/m2.

1982: Kiehl & Ramanathan obtained the following results for 2xCO2 utilizing H2O continuum absorption in the 12-18 microns region.

kyoji_3Kiehl & Ramanathan wrote:

But, the influence of this H2O overlap with CO2 bands is relatively smaller on the radiative heating of the joint surface/troposphere system. In particular, the effect of CO2 increase on the radiative heating of the joint surface/ troposphere system is affected very little by the presence of the water vapor continuum in the 12-18 microns region. We stress the importance of considering the troposphere/ surface system as a whole, when analyzing the effects of increasing CO2. As pointed out recently by Ramanathan (1981), results based upon surface energy balance alone can lead to incongruous conclusions.”

From Hansen et al. (1981) and Kiehl & Ramanathan (1982), the radiative forcing for

2xCO2 is 4 W/m2 at the tropopause giving the no-feedback climate sensitivity of 1.2K with the sensitivity factor of 0.3K/(W/m2) based on Cess (1976) as follows:

 4 W/m2 x 0.3 K/(W/m2) = 1.2K

 Soden & Held (2006) shows climate sensitivity is 3K for 2xCO2 from the 14 GCM studies for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) as follows:

  Climate sensitivity = no-feedback sensitivity (Planck response) x feedbacks

= 1.2K x 2.5 = 3K

Here, feedbacks are water vapor, ice albedo, lapse rate and cloud feedback.

The no-feedback sensitivity is uniform warming throughout the troposphere and the surface, which is originated from the 1DRCM studies of Manabe & Wetherald (1967) and Hansen et al. (1981) utilizing the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2.

The 1DRCM studies, however, are fudged due to their strong dependence on lapse rate used according to Hansen’s idea expressed in an interview with Spencer Weart held on 23 October, 2000 at NASA here.

And Cess admits his mathematical errors of the derivation to obtain the sensitivity factor of 0.3 K/(W/m2) in Cess (1976) here and here.

Kiehl & Ramanathan (1982) is based on the joint surface/troposphere system which is originated from Cess (1976) and is in line with the 1DRCM studies giving uniform warming throughout the troposphere and the surface due to the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2. Since it is a blanket model, the OLR decrease at the tropopause heats the troposphere and the surface as shown by their conclusion above.

On the contrary, a radiation height change model is the orthodox AGW theory as shown by Mitchell (1989) and Held & Soden (2000). In Fig.2, radiation height increases from point a to point b due to increased opaqueness when CO2 is doubled. This decreases the temperature at the effective radiation height of 5km causing an energy imbalance between the absorbed solar radiation (ASR) of 240W/m2 and the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) in Fig. 3.

In order to restore the balance of energy, the radiation temperature increases from point b to point c. Based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law, a warming of 1K at the effective radiation height is enough to remove the energy imbalance caused by the radiative forcing of 4 W/m2 for 2xCO2 in Fig. 2.

For the Manabe method, the surface temperature increases in the same degree of 1K utilizing the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km in Fig. 2. It, however, is erroneous since the 1DRCM studies are fudged according to the Hansen’s idea above.

In contrast, Kimoto model follows Ramanathan (1981) giving the no-feedback sensitivity of 0.17K with the direct heating of 1.2W/m2 for 2xCO2 from the Stefan-Boltzmann law at the surface. It is also in line with Newell & Dopplick (1979) giving a surface climate sensitivity of 0.24K based on the surface radiative forcing of around 1W/m2 and the evaporation cooling from the surface of the ocean.

In conclusion, the surface warming should be calculated with the surface radiative forcing of around 1 W/m2 utilizing the Stefan-Boltzmann law at the surface. The upper troposphere warming nullifies the radiative forcing at the tropopause due to CO2 increase with restoring OLR which is decreased by the opaqueness increase of the atmosphere.


Fig. 2  Comparison between Manabe method and Kimoto model.


Fig. 3  Energy budget of the earth adapted from Dorland (2006).


– Cess, R.D., An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1976, 33, 1831-1843.

– Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science 1981, 213, 957-966.

– Held, I.M. and Soden, B.J., Water vapor feedback and global warming, Annu. Rev. Energy Environ., 2000, 25, 441-475.

– Kiehl, J.T. and Ramanathan, V., Radiative heating due to increased CO2: The role of H2O continuum absorption in the 12-18 micron region, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1982, 39, 2923-2926.

– Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1967, 24, 241-259.

– Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., The effects of doubling theCO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1975, 32, 3-15.

– Mitchell, J.F.B., The greenhouse effect and climate change. Reviews of Geophysics, 1989, 27, 115-139.

– Newell, R.E. and Dopplick, T.G., Questions concerning the possible influence of anthropogenic CO2 on atmospheric temperature, J. Applied Meteorology, 1979, 18, 822-825.

– Ramanathan, V., Lian, M.S. and Cess, R.D., Increased atmospheric CO2 Zonal and seasonal estimation of the effect on the radiation energy balance and surface temperature. J. Geophysical Research, 1979, 84, 4949-4958.

– Ramanathan, V., The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the CO2 climate problem, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1981, 38, 918-930.

– Soden, B.J. and Held, I.M., An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 2006, 19, 3354-3360.


20 New Papers: Higher CO2, Global Warming Increase Crop Yields, Green The Earth, Reduce Weather Extremes, Extend Human Life

Back in the early 1970s, when there was a scientific consensus that the Earth was cooling and that cooling was not good for the biosphere, scientists were ranking human-generated pollutants in terms of their potential to do harm to the planet. At that time, CO2 was regarded as “the least objectionable or only beneficial addition to the atmosphere from industrial sources.”

Libby, 1970



American Scientist, January-February 1970, p. 18, “‘Though dire effects on climate of an increase in CO2 have been predicted, they are far from being established. The cycle is not really understood; carbon dioxide may well prove to be the least objectionable or the only beneficial addition to the atmosphere from industrial sources‘”

Then, 40-some years later, Scientific American writers have changed their minds, claiming that the worst human-generated pollution (of all the possible polluting emissions) is carbon dioxide. .



Back in the 1970s, a warming planet was good, and a cooling climate was bad.    Now, it’s the opposite.   Warmth is bad, and cooling is good.   And carbon dioxide, instead of being thought of as beneficial, is now considered a pollutant.

Fortunately, though, many modern scientists do not agree that warming and elevated CO2 are the scourge of the biosphere.  In fact, there is a growing body of scientific evidence that humans, plants, and animals are much more likely to adapt to and thrive in a warming climate than a cooling one.   For casual observers, this may seem obvious.   But for those who are convinced that it is essential to alarm the public about lurking climate catastrophes, good news about warming and elevated CO2 levels are not welcome, let alone worth considering.  It may be characterized as “anti-science” to even mention that (a) Gasparrini et al., 2015 “Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries”, or (b) Donohue et al., 2013  “[T]he 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982–2010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments.”   Dramatically reduced mortality rates due to warming, or a greener planet with enhanced crop yields and longer growing seasons due to CO2 rise…do not advance the humans-are-causing-climate-catastrophe agenda.  So instead of reporting on them, tendentious journalists and activists for the cause largely ignore the “good news” about global warming and elevated CO2.

So let’s uncover some of these recently published “good news” papers.  The below list of 20 new (2016) peer-reviewed scientific papers conclude that (a) modern mortality rates are lower with warmth they are in cooler environments; (b) elevated CO2 ‘dramatically’ increases crop yields, (c) elevated CO2 ameliorates the effects of drought and heat waves, (d) elevated CO2 greens the Earth, (e) elevated CO2 and warming lead to weaker hurricanes and storms and stabilize the climate, and (f) there is no significant evidence linking extreme weather events (hurricanes, floods, droughts fires, tornadoes)… to CO2 changes, but there is (g) evidence that cooling temperatures lead to a more unstable climate.

Mortality Rates Lower With Warmth, Higher With Cold

Shaposhnikov and Revich, 2016

“Highlights: Cold spells seem to be more hazardous to human health than heat waves.

Heat waves and cold spells were identified during 1999–2007. Statistical analysis of mortality from all non-traumatic, cardiovascular, respiratory and all external causes among age groups 30–64 and ⩾65 allowed to obtain site-specific and then pooled estimates of relative increases in mortality separately for heat and cold waves. The evidence of impacts of cold on mortality was more robust than the same for heat.”

Arbuthnott et al., 2016

“Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. … There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown.”

Elevated CO2 ‘Dramatically’ Increases Crop Yields

Fitzgerald et al., 2016

Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves

“Wheat production will be impacted by increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 [CO2], which is expected to rise from about 400 μmol mol−1 in 2015 to 550 μmol mol−1 by 2050. … The Australian Grains Free Air CO2 Enrichment (AGFACE) facility was established to compare wheat (Triticum aestivum) growth and yield under ambient (~370 μmol−1 in 2007) and e[CO2] (550 μmol−1) in semi-arid environments. Experiments were undertaken at two dryland sites (Horsham and Walpeup) across three years with two cultivars, two sowing times and two irrigation treatments. Mean yield stimulation due to e[CO2] was 24% at Horsham and 53% at Walpeup, with some treatment responses greater than 70%, depending on environment. Under supplemental irrigation, e[CO2] stimulated yields at Horsham by 37% compared to 13% under rainfed conditions, showing that water limited growth and yield response to e[CO2]. Heat wave effects were ameliorated under e[CO2] as shown by reductions of 31 and 54% in screenings and 10 and 12% larger kernels (Horsham and Walpeup).”

Abebe et al., 2016


  • Effect of elevated CO2 and temperature on maize was studied using open top chamber.
  • Grain yield and yield attributes increased with elevated CO2 in north–west India.
  • Elevated temperature decreased yield but improved grain nutrient contents.
  • Elevated CO2 reduced the negative effects of elevated temperature on maize yield.

Elevated CO2 increased grain yield of maize by 53.7% and harvest index (HI) by 2.9% compared to ambient CO2. Stover yield and yield attributes such as cob length, cob diameter, grain weight cob−1, number of grains cob−1 and 100 grain weight also increased with elevated CO2.”

Elevated CO2 Ameliorates Effects Of Droughts, Heat Waves

Roy et al., 2016

“Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2concentrations (eCO2). … Our results indicate that eCO2 [elevated CO2] not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE [extreme climate events] but also enhances its recovery after the ECE , as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake.”

van der Kooi et al., 2016

Exposure of plants to elevated CO2 (eCO2) has a number of physiological effects, including increased photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreased stomatal conductance, resulting in greater growth and yield and also improved water use efficiency. Therefore, eCO2 [elevated CO2] is considered to ameliorate the adverse effects of drought. … Our results suggest that crops grown in areas with limited water availability will benefit from future eCO2 [elevated CO2], regardless of their metabolism. Drought leads to stomatal limitation of photosynthesis in both C3 and C4 crops, which is alleviated when the plants are grown under eCO2.”

Elevated CO2 Greens The Earth, Especially In Dry Areas

Lu et al., 2016

Elevated CO2 as a driver of global dryland greening

“While recent findings based on satellite records indicate a positive trend in vegetation greenness over global drylands, the reasons remain elusive. … Based on 1705 field measurements from 21 distinct sites, a consistent and statistically significant increase in the availability of soil water (11%) was observed under elevated CO2 treatments in both drylands and non-drylands, with a statistically stronger response over drylands (17% vs. 9%). Given the inherent water limitation in drylands, it is suggested that the additional soil water availability is a likely driver of observed increases in vegetation greenness.”

Zhu et al., 2016

“Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services.  Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982–2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau.”

Thomas et al., 2016

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO2 (ASC) north of 45° N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5-15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980’s.  Modelled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO2.”

Mao et al., 2016

“Significant land greening in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has been documented through satellite observations during the past three decades. Our findings reveal that the observed greening record is consistent with an assumption of anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but is not consistent with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability. These results provide the first clear evidence of a discernible human fingerprint on physiological vegetation changes other than phenology and range shifts.”

Vejpustková et al., 2016

“Trees growing in a pure aspen stand were selected according to the CO-gas regime within their  rooting zone. Five high [CO2] trees (10–25% CO2 in the soil) and five low [CO2] trees (up to 3% CO2 in the

soil) were sampled. Stem growth analysis of each trunk was carried out to study growth pattern in detail.  High and low [CO2] trees significantly differed in a growth rate. At the age of 25 years, the basal area of high [CO2] trees exceeded low [CO2] trees by 39 %. The positive effect of CO2 on annual increment was pronounced particularly in the years with optimal growing conditions. Results suggest that trees can be fertilized not only by elevated atmospheric CO2 but also when fed with CO2 via the roots.”

Elevated CO2, Warming Weakens Hurricanes, Stabilizes The Climate

Chang et al., 2016

“Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high impact weather over the mid-latitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America. Climate models project a decrease in summer cyclone activity, but the observed decreasing rate is near the fastest projected.”

Gaucherel and Moron, 2016

“‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate system associated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TP interactions are analysed from an integrated and conceptual point of view using two qualitative Boolean models built on graph grammars. They allow an accurate study of the node TP interactions previously identified by expert elicitation and take into account a range of various large-scale climate processes potentially able to trigger, alone or jointly, instability in the global climate. Our findings show that, contrary to commonly held beliefs, far from causing runaway changes in the Earth’s climate, such as self-acceleration due to additive positive feedbacks, successive perturbations [associated with ‘global warming’] might actually lead to its stabilization.”

Kelly, 2016

It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change.”

No Significant Evidence That Elevated CO2, Warming Lead To More Hurricanes, Floods, Droughts, Fires, Tornadoes

Boos and Sterelvmo, 2016

Neither a physically correct theoretical model nor a comprehensive climate model support the idea that seasonal mean monsoons will undergo abrupt, nonlinear shifts in response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol emissions, or land surface albedo.”

van der Wiel et al., 2016

“[T]he observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record.”

Hoerling et al, 2016

“Time series of US daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. …. Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales. … Analysis of the seasonality in heavy daily precipitation trends supports physical arguments that their changes during 1979-2013 have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability, and less to human-induced climate change.”

Doerr and Santín, 2016

“Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.”

Guo et al., 2016

The combined spatial-temporal variability of U.S. tornado occurrence has remained nearly constant since 1950.”

Evidence That Cooling Is Associated With Extreme Weather Events, Instability

Dezileau et al., 2016

Storms and tsunamis, which may seriously endanger human society, are amongst the most devastating marine catastrophes that can occur in coastal areas. … [T]hese extreme events occurred around 5250, 4000, 3600, 3010, 2300, 1350, 650, and 80 years cal BP. No comparable events have been observed during the 20th and 21st centuries. The results indicate little likelihood of a tsunami origin for these coarse-grained layers, although historical tsunami events are recorded in this region. These periods of surge events seem to coincide with the coldest periods in Europe during the late Holocene, suggesting a control by a climatic mechanism for periods of increased storm activity.”

Pratte et al., 2016

“The highest dust fluxes in the Baie bog were recorded from 1750–1000 cal. BP to 600–100 cal. BP and occur at the same time as periods of high variability in the macrofossil record (i.e. successive layers dominated by Sphagnum or Ericaceae). The timing of these events in the dust and macrofossil records also corresponds to documented cold periods. These two [cold] periods have been identified as episodes of climatic instability, which could have been caused by changes in the wind regime.”

Global Investments In Renewable Energies Crash in 3rd Quarter 2016, Bloomberg Reports!

Citing the London-based consulting company Bloomberg New Energy Finance the German Business News here reports that “investments in renewable energies collapsed worldwide in the third quarter” of this year, led by Europe, China and Japan.

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015, investment, mainly in solar and wind power, fell a whopping 43 percent.

Among the reasons: a number of governments rolled back subsidies for renewable energies, and so total investments for the year will be far below the level of the previous year 2015), Bloomberg reports.

According to the report (translated from the German Business News): “The third quarter results are worrisomely low, especially with regards to the weakening trend of the year overall“. Japan and China saw significant reductions in investments.

In total in 2015 almost one third of a trillion dollars were invested – a record. However, global CO2 emissions continued to climb unhindered. 2016 will see less investment in wind and solar.

The Bloomberg report also mentions that the German government also will “throttle” the expansion of wind energy in northern Germany, a region that had seen huge growth in the sector since the year 2000. The reason for the scale-back is the slow pace at which the needed power grid expansion is taking place – due in large part to mounting citizens’s protests.

This is hardly the investment trend that the upcoming Paris Treaty has in mind.


Current Solar Cycle Fades, Continues To Be Weakest in 200 Years …Likely Foretelling Global Cooling

The Sun in September 2016

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

Also last month the sun was relatively inactive. The observed sunspot number (SSN) was 44.7, which was just 64% of what is the average for the previously observed 23 cycles.

The average cycle has a duration of 11 years. The current cycle number 24 is depicted by the red curve in the following chart:

Figure 1: The current solar cycle 24 is shown in red. The mean of the previous 23 cycles is shown by the blue curve. The black curve depicts solar cycle 5, which had a similar behavior as the current cycle 25.

What stands out is that the last 18 months of activity of the current cycle has been consistently weaker than during the same period of solar cycle 5, which ushered in the Dalton-Minimum in 1795.

So what can we say about the upcoming solar cycle 25, which is expected to begin around 2020? Next month we will take another look at the solar polar field because its strength is a leading indicator for what the sun has in store for us. Up to now everything looks like the situation we saw in the early 19th century.The comparison of the individual cycles with respect to their sunspot deviation from the mean after 94 months into the cycle follows:

Figure 2: The accumulated monthly sunspot totals for each cycle and their respective deviation from the mean (blue curve in Figure 1), 94 months into the cycle. Only 2 cycles were less active than the current cycle: cycles no. 5 and 6 – some 200 years ago!   The second half of the 20th century was the most active phase with respect to amplitude and duration.

Beginning with solar cycle 18 in the year 1944 until the mid 1990s (SC22) there were 4 strong cycles. The peak was SC 19, which ended in 1964. SC 21 was the third strongest cycle and 1986. The strong cycles ceased in 2005, and one is not expected with strong certainty until 2033.


Note from NTZ: Yesterday Kenneth Richard posted on 18 very recent papers showing a strong correlation between solar activity and global temperature over the past centuries. Many accept that periods of low solar activity lead to periods of global cool-offs. But some experts caution that the effects from the series of the powerful solar cycles of the late 20th century will not be offset by the single weak cycle we are currently experiencing.


18 New Papers Link High Solar Activity To Medieval And Modern Warmth, Low Solar Activity To Little Ice Age Cooling

“It is generally accepted that the climate warms during periods of strong solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period) and cools during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age).” —Lyu et al., 2016

Within the last 1,000 years, global-scale surface temperatures underwent a warm period during Medieval times, centennial-scale cooling during the 14th to 19th centuries, and another warm period since the early 20th century.   According to scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed scientific literature within the last several months (2016), these long-term thermal changes are well correlated with long-term variations in solar activity, namely the Medieval Solar Maximum (Medieval Warm Period), Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minimums (Little Ice Age), and Modern Grand Maximum (20th Century).   Scientists Zharkova and colleagues (2015) provide a cogent summary with a user-friendly graphic denoting the solar changes and their correspondence with warming and cooling trends.

Zharkova et al., 2015

“The longest direct observation of solar activity is the 400-year sunspot-number series, which depicts a dramatic contrast between the almost spotless Maunder and Dalton minima, andthe period of very high activity in the most recent 5 cycles [1950s – 2000s], prior to cycle 24. … The records show that solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern Maximum.   We predict correctly many features from the past, such as: 1) an increase in solar activity during the Medieval Warm period; 2) a clear decrease in the activity during the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum; 3) an increase in solar activity during a modern maximum in 20th century.”


Usoskin et al., 2016

“The corrected series is provided as supplementary material in electronic form and displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton Minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg Minimum), as well as the Modern Grand Maximum of [solar] activity in the second half of the twentieth century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years.”

Usoskin et al., 2014

[T]he modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19–23, i.e., 1950–2009) was a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia. Except for these extreme cases, our reconstruction otherwise reveals that solar activity is well confined within a relatively narrow range.”


Below is a list of 18 peer-reviewed papers published in 2016 that support the position that changes in solar activity are well correlated with warming and cooling periods for the last millennium.

Sanchez-Sesma, 2016

Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400 years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová (2000), respectively, with important and interesting influences in the near, past and future climate. These millennialscale patterns of reconstructed SA [solar activity] variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder minimum [Little Ice Age cooling], as well as epochs of enhanced [solar] activity, such as the current Modern Maximum [20th century warming], and the Medieval maximum [Medieval Warm Period] in the 12th century.  … We can conclude that the evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.”

Miettinen et al., 2016

“The results demonstrate both abrupt changes and a clear centennial-bicentennial variability for the last millennium. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1000 and 1200 CE represents the warmest ocean surface conditions of the SE Greenland shelf over the late Holocene (880 BCE-1910 CE). MCA in the current record is characterized by abrupt, decadal to multidecadal changes, such as an abrupt warming of ~2.4 °C in 55 years around 1000 CE. [0,5 Temperature changes of these magnitudes are rarely observed in other proxy records from the North Atlantic. … A cool phase, from 1200-1890 CE, associated with the Little Ice Age (LIA), ends with the rapid warming of aSST and diminished aSIC in the early 20th century. The phases of warm aSST and aSIC minima on the SE Greenland shelf and solar minima of the last millennium are antiphased, suggesting that solar forcing possibly amplified by atmospheric forcing has been behind the aSST variability on the SE Greenland over the last millennium.”

Lyu et al., 2016

“The reconstructed April–July MMT series exhibited six cold and seven warm periods. The longest cold period lasted from AD 1645 to 1677 (33 years), with an average temperature of 0.5 ◦C below the mean value.The longest warm period, however, lasted from AD 1767 to 1785 (19 years), and the average temperature was 0.69 ◦C above the mean value (Table 4). Four cold (1605–1616, 1645–1677, 1911–1924, and 1951–1969) and warm (1795–1807, 1838– 1848, 1856–1873, and 1991–2008) periods were consistent with other results of tree-ring reconstructions in northeast China (Shao and Wu, 1997; Yin et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2012; Zhu et al., 2015). In addition, two cold periods (1645– 1677 and 1684–1691) were consistent with the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), an interval of decreased solar irradiance (Bard et al., 2000). … The three temperature series exhibited significantly low temperature periods during the 1950s–1970s, which coincided with a slight decrease in solar activity from AD 1940 to 1970 (Beer et al., 2000; Fig. 7).”

“[P]revious studies suggest that climate change in northeast China was also linked to the solar activities and global land–sea atmospheric circulation during certain pre-instrumental periods (Chen et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2011; Liu et al., 2013). It is generally accepted that the climate warms during periods of strong solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period) and cools during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age; Lean and Rind, 1999; Bond et al., 2001).”

Zhu et al., 2016

“During the period 1875–1955, late summer temperature fluctuated less strongly than before or thereafter. In general, the average length of cold periods was shorter than that of warm periods. The cold period of 1869–1877 was the longest and coldest cool period had a mean of 17.63°C. The longest warm period extended from 1655 to 1668, and the warmest period in AD 1719–1730 had a mean of 20.37°C. However, we should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST.”

[S]even cold periods and three warm periods were identified during the past 368 years (Fig. 4d). All the cold periods were during the Maunder (1708–1711) or Dalton (1818– 1821, 1824–1828, 1832–1836, and 1839–1842) solar minima periods, except for the cold periods of 1765–1769 and 1869–1877 (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999), which indicated that RLST [mean maximum temperature] variations in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ] might be driven by solar activity.  … Warm periods of 1719–1730 and 1858–1859 both had more sunspots (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999) and lower volcanic forcing (Fig. 7b).”

[S]ignificant multidecadal- and centennial-scale cycles of our temperature reconstruction might include the signs of solar activity, such as the Gleissberg cycles (Peristykh and Damon, 2003), Suess cycles (Braun et al., 2005), Bruckner cycles (Raspopov et al., 2004), and Schwabe cycles (Braun et al., 2005). The Maunder (ca. AD 1645–1715) and Dalton (ca. AD 1790–1840) solar minima periods were generally associated with temperature depressions (Eddy, 1976), and the Damon (ca. AD 1890– 1920) solar maximum period occurred in a relatively warm period, which further confirmed that late summer temperature variation in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ] might be driven by solar activity (Fig. 7b).”


Sanchez-Lopez et al., 2016

The dominant warm and arid conditions during the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300  CE], and the cold and wet conditions during the LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] indicate the interplay of the NAO+, EA+ and NAO- , EA- [positive/negative North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic phases], respectively. Furthermore, the higher solar irradiance during the [“warm conditions”] RP [Roman Period, 200 BCE – 500 CE] and MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300 CE] may support the predominance of the EA+ [positive East Atlantic] phase, whereas the opposite scenario [“colder temperatures”] during the EMA [Early Middle Age, 500-900 CE] and LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] may support the predominance of the EA- [negative East Atlantic] phase, which would favour the occurrence of frequent and persistent blocking events in the Atlantic region during these periods.”


Chambers, 2016

“The so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) of the 15th–19th centuries [1400-1900 AD] is a fascinating period of time, for many reasons. … [I]t includes evidence for glacier re-advance – in northern Europe, particularly, to positions not otherwise (or seldom) reached within the mid–late Holocene (McCarroll, 1991; Matthews and Shakesby, 1984; Nesje, 2009) … [I]t follows the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and precedes the period of recent ‘Global Warming’, and therefore, it post-dates the Medieval Solar Maximum, encompasses up to three solar minima (Spörer, Maunder and Dalton) (Grove, 1988), and precedes the ‘Contemporary’ (namely, late 20th century) Solar Maximum (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997; Pan and Yau, 2002); (4) there are multiple hypotheses as to the cause of its onset (cf. Miller et al., 2012), although it is widely considered that reduced solar activity is the cause of at least its most intense phases (cf. Mauquoy et al., 2002) …. [R]ecent work implies an in-phase relationship between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres [the Little Ice Age was global in extent] (Chambers et al., 2014; Simms et al., 2012).”

Voarintsoa et al., 2016

Multiple proxies … from Dante Cave [southwestern Africa] indicate a linkage between changes in hydroclimate in northeastern Namibia and changes in solar activity and changes in global temperatures. The record suggests that during solar minima and globally cooler conditions (ca. 1660–1710 and ca. 1790–1830 [Little Ice Age]), wetter periods (reflecting longer summer seasons) in northeastern Namibia were linked to advances of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Inter-Ocean Convergence Zone (IOCZ) southwestward.”

Gogou et al., 2016

“We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). …  Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD [Medieval Warm Period]. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD [Little Ice Age]. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. … Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing such as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ∼2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ΑD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions.”

Andres, 2016

“Reconstructions of historical climate changes indicate that surface air temperatures decreased over the preindustrial last millennium. Conflicting explanations have been proposed for the cause of the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the early part of the last millennium to the Little Ice Age (LIA) near its end. The possible causes include volcanic emissions, total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, greenhouse gas concentration fluctuations and orbital forcing variations. In the present paper, we demonstrate that all of these climate forcings contribute significantly to simulated surface air temperature and sea ice concentration changes over this period. On the other hand, simulated ocean heat content appears to respond significantly only to volcanic and TSI [total solar irradiance] variations.   In simulations at T85 resolution, TSI [total solar irradiance] reductions and volcanic emissions together generate significant increases in sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, which we find to be responsible for most of the temperature reductions over north-western Europe.”

Bauchi Danladi and Akçer-Ön, 2016

Due to the variability of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), several climatic forcing mechanisms have been invoked to enlighten the issue. The focus of this study is on the influence of the solar activity proxy (Total Solar Irradiance) during the LIA and MCA in a high altitude Lake Salda in south-western Anatolia.  … [T]he sediment records cover the last millennium. We have observed the effect of the solar activity throughout the LIA and MCA in Lake Salda, with wet and dry spells corresponding to high and low TSI respectively. In addition, the Dalton Minimum, Maunder Minimum, Spörer Minimum, Wolf Minimum, the Medieval Maximum and the Oort Minimum have been observed.”

Li et al., 2016

“Our results support the view that over the past millennium, on a multi-centennial timescale, the moisture variations in ACA [arid Central Asia] were generally out-of-phase with those in the region affected by the Asian summer monsoon. The humid, unstable LIA [Little Ice Age] climate in ACA [arid Central Asia] may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and/or with variations in solar irradiance.”

Chae and Park, 2016

“We present a multi-proxy record (pollen, microscopic charcoal, carbon-isotopic composition [δ13C], organic content, and particle size) of the late-Holocene climate change and human impact from central-eastern South Korea. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), the most recent major climate events, have not been accurately investigated by paleolimnological studies in Korea, mainly due to a lack of undisturbed sediments and indifference to the past climate change. Our pollen records show late- Holocene centennial climate variations characterized by the successive solar minimums of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton. We find paleoenvironmental evidence for shifting cultivation associated with serious droughts and consequent famines during the early 19th-century Dalton minimum. Our interpretation of human activities is well supported by Korean historical documents describing socioeconomic suffering induced by LIA climate deteriorations [cooling].”

Xing et al., 2016

“The comparison between MDVM reconstructed temperature and the variation of external forcing (solar activity and volcanic activity) is shown in Fig. 5. The smoothed MDVM reconstruction exhibited a general agreement with the variation of the reconstructed total solar irradiance (TSI), and the correlation between the two series during the common period 849–2000 AD was significant (r = 0.498, edf = 34, p<0.01). Specially, the records shared high correlation coefficients in the epochs of the solar maximum (i.e. during the Medieval and Modern age), but poor correlation around 1500–1700 AD when the Spörer Minimum and Maunder Minimum occurred. It was similar to some other dendrochronological researches concerning the relation with solar activity. The relatively cold conditions between the two warm peaks around AD 1000 and 1100 seemed to be related to the Oort Minimum. …. Therefore, the temperature reconstructions based on the MDVM method agreed well in general with the characteristic variations of the solar and volcanic forcings.”

“It is quite plausible that the long-term climate variations in the past millennium have been largely linked to the periodical solar activity … According to mainstream opinions, the LIA type events were probably attributed to a combination of solar minima and volcanic eruptions.”

Hanna, 2016

“Temperature reconstructions from Simpson Lagoon also show similarities with regional and pan-Arctic climate records over the last few millennia, with evidence of temperature departures correlative with noted climate events (i.e., Little Ice Age, Medieval Climate Anomaly). In addition, temporal variability in sediment sourcing to the lagoon, determined using a multi-proxy approach (i.e., granulometry, elemental analysis, clay mineralogy), broadly corresponds with temperature fluctuations, indicating relative increases in fluvial sediment discharge during colder intervals and decreased river discharge/increased coastal erosion during warmer periods. This paleoclimate variability may be driven by variations in solar output and/or shifts in the regional ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns (e.g., the Aleutian Low).”

Weißbach et al., 2016

“Compared to single records, this stack represents the mean δ18O signal for northern Greenland that is interpreted as proxy for temperature. Our northern Greenland δ18O stack indicates distinctly enriched [warm] δ18O values during medieval times, about AD 1420 ± 20 and from AD 1870 onwards. The period between AD 1420 and AD 1850 has depleted [cold] δ18O values compared to the average for the entire millennium and represents the Little Ice Age. The δ18O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420.  …. The solar activity and internal Arctic climate dynamics are likely the main factors influencing the temperature in northern Greenland.”

Camenisch et al., 2016

“Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality.”

Yndestad and Solheim, 2016

“In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. …. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.”

Büntgen et al., 2016

“Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. … Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age.”

After Trillions of Dollars And 13 Climate Conferences, CO2 Emissions Reach New Record High!

Michael Krueger at German skeptic site Science Skeptical here writes that in 2015 global CO2 emissions reached another new all-time record high, despite all the elaborate climate conferences and hundreds of billions of dollars invested in curbing global “greenhouse gases”.

Krueger asks: What have all the climate conferences brought us since the first UN conference took place in Berlin in 1995?

Over the past 20 years global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have skyrocketed some 50%, from 22.2 billion tonnes per year to 33.5 billion tonnes in 2015. The 2015 figure was a new record high, defying the prognoses of experts who had expected to see a trend reversal by now. See the following charts:


Chronology of UN climate conferences

1 1995: Berlin (COP 1)
2 1996: Geneva (COP 2)
3 2005: Montreal (COP 11/CMP 1)
4 2006 Nairobi (COP 12/CMP 2)
5 2007: Bali (COP 13/CMP 3)
6 2008: Posen
7 2009: Copenhagen
8 2010: Cancún
9 2011: Durban
10 2012: Doha
11 2013: Warsaw
12 2014: Lima
13 2015: Paris
14 2016: Marrakesh

13 UN climate conferences have not led to any reduction in CO2 emissions. The reductions achieved by Russia and Europe were more than completely eliminated by China and India alone – never mind the other developing countries.

Krueger asks: What about Germany?

He writes that Germany recently signed on to the Paris Agreement with not a single Parliamentarian voting against it. This means that Germany commits itself to reduce its CO2 emissions by 95% by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels). However, Germany has not cut its CO2 emissions at all over the past 7 years, despite the last 3 winters being mild ones.

Krueger sums up:

Despite Germany accounts for only 3% of the world’s CO2 emissions, and has not had any reduction in CO2 emissions since 2009, a reduction of a few percent by Germany will mean very little.”


Potsdam Climate Institute Scientists/Government Under Fire For Politicizing Climate Science

Chief Editor of ‘Science’ criticizes activism by climate scientists: PIK needs to define red line for employees

By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Luning
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The well-known journal ‘Science’ has a new chief editor. Jeremy Berg is a biochemist was among the leadership of the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) in Pennsylvania. Since July 1, 2016 he has been in charge of Science. At the website ‘Times Higher Education‘ Berg complained about a massive loss of trust the public has had with respect to science. In Berg’s opinion, climate scientists bear part of the blame because they’ve step over the line and made themselves vulnerable to attacks through their political lobby work. The Times article quotes Berg as follows:

But researchers are not entirely blameless for this rising hostility, thinks Berg. Too often they have gone beyond explaining the scientific situation and ventured into policy prescriptions, notably in the case of climate change, he thinks. ‘The policy issues should be informed by science, but they are separate questions,’ he says. ‘Scientists to some degree, intentionally or otherwise, have been mashing the two together,’ he adds, and urges scientists to be more ‘transparent’ about ‘where the firmness of your conclusions end’.”

The criticism of course is also aimed at Potsdam, where the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) was especially founded for that very purpose: to mix science and politics. A terrible structural error that the current German government vehemently ignores. Are they really able to just simply skip over the advisories coming from the “Scientific Champions League”?

It is indeed strange that the PIK, despite all its scientific errors, gaffes and blunders, can be showered with awards and prizes. A “thank you” for the political legwork for Germany’s precarious Energiewende?


Daimler Benz CEO Dieter Zetsche Come Out Against 2030 Ban Of Internal Combustion Engines

Online national German daily ‘Die Welt’ here reported yesterday that Daimler Benz CEO Dieter Zetsche opposes a mandatory hasty exit from fossil fuel powered automobiles.

Recently Germany’s Federal Council voted to ban the registration of automobiles powered by gasoline or diesel fossil fuel by the year 2030 in a bid to reduce the country’s CO2 emissions. However, a number of Germany’s industrial and political leaders have already come out and called the proposed ban “absurd” and a “fairy tale”.

The German luxury car giant’s CEO told the Club of Hamburg Journalists: “We don’t need in Germany any mandatory measures,” and “Indeed we cannot tell the customers what they have to buy.”

Die Welt adds that “a regulation banning these motors has nothing to do with a market economy. Moreover it destroys the soicio-economic value that has been created by the development and manufacture of gasoline and diesel motors.”

However, Zetsche does say that he expects electric cars to become competitive in the future and that his company will be ready in about 5 to 10 years. By 2025 Zetsche believes 75% of new Daimler-Benz automobiles will still be equipped with internal combustion engines. According to Die Welt, the German CEO plans to launch already in 2019 an electric-driven SUV for the city that will offer a range of 500 kilometers and a charging time of only 30 minutes.

Zetsche also does not think much of government subsidies for electric cars, and says the state rather should focus more on providing the needed infrastructure for electric mobility.

Unfortunately here Zetsche and electric vehicle owners may be waiting a long time for this, as investment in Germany’s green power grid has been scaled back rather than expanded, this being due to an array of economic, financial, social and technical hurdles.


Scientists: ‘Climate Model Simulations That Include Anthropogenic Forcing Are Not Compatible With Observed Trends’

According to a recently published paper in the journal Science, (Cook et al., 2016, “Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula”), between 1945 and 2009 the mean ocean temperature warmed at depths of 150 to 400 meters for about 3/4ths of the waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula (AP).  The other 1/4th of the ocean waters at those depths (150 to 400 m) cooled (by -1°C ) during  those 65 years.


As the authors point out, and as the graph above shows, in the areas where the waters warmed (light red shaded), glacier retreat was observed to be most pronounced (blood red points).  In the regions (Bransfield Strait) where the ocean waters cooled (blue shaded), glaciers were in balance and even advanced (blue points).  Citing this strong correlation between regional ocean warming/cooling and regional glacier retreat/advance, the authors concluded that the long-held assumption that atmospheric and surface  warming (presumably driven by greenhouse gases) was what primarily caused Antarctic glaciers to recede is not supported by the evidence.  Instead, it is the temperature of the ocean waters that “have been the predominant control on multidecadal glacier front behavior in the western AP.”

Cook et al., 2016

Here, we identify a strong correspondence between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along  the ~1000-kilometer western coastline. In the south, glaciers that terminate in warm Circumpolar Deep Water have undergone considerable retreat, whereas those in the far northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not. Furthermore, a mid-ocean warming since the 1990s in the south is coincident with widespread acceleration of glacier retreat. We conclude that changes in ocean-induced melting are the primary cause of retreat for glaciers in this region. … [S]everal recent studies of Arctic glaciers have concluded that calving rates are strongly dependent on ocean temperatures. Until now, the role of the ocean (as opposed to the atmosphere) as the dominant driver of glacier frontal retreat on the western AP has not been considered…. We conclude that ocean temperatures below 100-m depth have been the predominant control on multidecadal glacier front behavior in the western AP.”

It should be pointed out that the decadal-scale changes in the heat content of the layers of abyssal vs. surface Southern Ocean are entirely consistent with what is expected with natural variability.  As scientists Latif et al. (2013) explain:

“During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection, the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades.”

Referencing these natural heat changes and their climatic consequences,  the ocean depth where there has been significant warming in the region of  the AP in recent decades is primarily confined to  the 150 to 400 m layer as  identified by Cook et al. (2016).   As the below graph  from the paper shows, not only did the northern  section of the 0-400 m layer not warm (as shown in the green/blue coloration areas), most of the 0-100 m layer for the AP region did not warm either.  So the ocean warming for the AP has been primarily confined to the bottom half to three-quarters of the region, and only in the 150 to 400 m layer, not the 0-100 m layer, where it has been too cold to melt ice.


This lack of warming – and, in fact, cooling – in large sections of the oceanic and land-based Antarctic Peninsula region has been documented in other scientific studies.  For example, Turner et al. (2016), in their paper entitled, “Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability,” have documented that the surface temperatures for the Antarctic Peninsula – which are often attributed to greenhouse gas forcing – have not warmed overall since the late 1970s, and in fact they’ve undergone a significant cooling trend for the last 1 1/2 decades.


Turner et al., 2016

Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional [Antarctic Peninsula] warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer.”

Furthermore, Jones et al. (2016) have found that surfaces temperatures for the Southern Ocean – which surrounds the entire Antarctic continent – have dropped significantly since the late 1970s, as they show in the graph from their paper.


Of course, as the ocean surface near Antarctica has continued to cool for going on 4 decades now, this has led to a significant  net growth in the overall sea ice area surrounding Anarctica, as also documented by Jones et al. (2016).


As further evidence that Antarctica as a whole has not been cooperating with climate models and the assumption that carbon dioxide is a significant determinant of glacier, sea ice, and temperature variability, Jones et al. (2016) conclude by saying that “climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends” and that “natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations.

Jones et al., 2016

Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries.

[C]limate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.”

There are even graphs from the Jones et al. (2016) paper that show that West Antarctica, coastal East Antarctica, and the Antarctic Plateau have not undergone an obvious warming trend in the last 200+ years.


In fact, other recent studies also indicate that not only the AP, but the entire Antarctic continent’s temperatures have been stable to cooling slightly since the 1970s, and that, contrary to climate modeling, glaciers have been advancing more than they’ve been receding, or that ice melt volume has been declining (ice is melting less, not more) since the 1970s.

For example, like Cook et al. (2016) cited above, Kuippers Munneke et al. (2012) also conclude that atmospheric or surface warming (due to greenhouse gases, presumably) is not controlling glacier melt, but instead “a picture emerges in which the ultimate fate of ice shelves is governed by oceanic forcing from below“.

Kuippers Munneke et al., 2012

None of the regions in Antarctica show a statistically significant trend in melt volume over the period 1979–2010. … Of the four Antarctic Peninsula stations that have an air temperature record for 1979–2010, only Faraday exhibits a statistically significant warming trend in summer temperature for that period.  A reconstruction of [Antarctica] near-surface temperature….leaves DJF [December-February] temperature trends for 1979–2010 insignificant over nearly the entire continent, and mostly suggests statistically insignificant cooling along the coastal margins. This finding also seems consistent with RACMO2 DJF near surface temperatures, which show no statistically significant trends for 1979–2010 in any of the areas that experience melt. … A picture emerges in which the ultimate fate of ice shelves is governed by oceanic forcing from below.”


For East Antarctica, not only have surface temperatures been cooling since the early 1960s, a significant majority of glaciers have been advancing, not retreating, since about 1990.

Miles et al., 2013

“Here we present multidecadal trends in the terminus position of 175 ocean-terminating outlet glaciers along 5,400 kilometres of the margin of the East Antarctic ice sheet, and reveal widespread and synchronous changes. Despite large fluctuations between glaciers—linked to their size—three epochal patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010.”


Of course, none of these observed non-warming, glacier-advancing trends for Antarctica are compatible with assumptions about anthropogenic forcing, or the increase in CO2 emissions.  In fact, scientists have even found that increasing CO2 concentrations has a net cooling effect, not a net warming effect, on central Antarctica.

Schmithüsen et al., 2015

“For this region [central Antarctica], the emission to space is higher than the surface emission; and the greenhouse effect of CO2 is around zero or even negative, which has not been discussed so far. We investigated this in detail and show that for central Antarctica an increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space, which cools the Earth-atmosphere system.  For most of the Antarctic Plateau, GHE-TES [greenhouse effect as measured by the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer] is close to zero or even slightly negative; i.e., the presence of CO2 increases radiative cooling.”

So instead of an anthropogenic influence on trends in Antarctica, scientists are increasingly publishing papers documenting that the Antarctic climate is strongly dominated by natural factors (ENSO, SAM, planetary waves, etc.), not human activity.  Even Eric Steig, avid defender of the CO2-dominated climate, recently acknowledged in a blog comment (#26) that “the evidence that the current retreat of Antarctic glaciers is owing to anthropogenic global warming is weak.”

Below are a tiny sample papers documenting a natural dominance over the Antarctic climate, and concluding that “detecting an anthropogenic signal … is challenging”.  Unfortunately, these are the scientific papers that don’t get much attention, as they don’t endorse the humans-are-causing-dangerous-glacier-melting narrative that garners most of the headlines.

Previdi and Polvani, 2016

[O]bservations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB [surface mass balance] in recent decades. We show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal during the second half of the twentieth century is small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable as a result of large natural SMB variability. However, our analysis reveals that the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB is very likely to emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century, thus mitigating future increases in global sea level.”

Bracegirdle et al., 2016

Predicting the Antarctic climate using climate models

“Climate models are the main tool for making quantitative estimates of how Antarctic climate may change over the 21st century. There is high agreement on some aspects of the predictions provided by models, but improvements in understanding are needed in key components of the Antarctic climate system, such as sea ice and coastal ocean-ice shelf processes. In the near term (on timescales of a few years) the climate change signal is small compared to natural cycles (associated with phenomena such as El Niño), the remote impacts of which on the Antarctic atmosphere are difficult to predict. In the longer term (on multi-decadal timescales) the reliability of climate model predictions is limited by uncertainty over human emissions pathways, the realism of climate models, and feedbacks between other elements of the Earth System (e.g. ice sheets).”

Hobbs et al., 2016

“Over the past 37 years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.”

Yeo and Kim, 2015

“ENSO is the most prominent coupled mode involving atmospheric and oceanic variability over the tropical Pacific and exerts strong impacts on the climate over the extra-tropics through the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric wave train. … The ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnection, in turn, modulates Antarctic sea ice as well as sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern Ocean through alteration of the surface energy fluxes. … SAM [southern annular mode] yields a clear local impact on the SH climate. For example, locally enhanced low-pressure anomaly to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula during a positive SAM [southern annular mode] phase results in advection of warm air and subsequent warming in the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Clem and Renwick, 2015

“We demonstrate that a significant September trend towards increased convection (reduced OLR) in the poleward portion of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is statistically related to Rossby wave-like circulation changes across the southern oceans. … OLR-related changes are linearly congruent with around half of the observed total changes in circulation during September and October, and are consistent with observed trends in South Pacific sea ice concentration and surface temperature over western West Antarctica and the western Antarctic Peninsula.”

Irving and Simmonds, 2015

“Large precipitation anomalies in regions of significant topography (e.g. New Zealand, Patagonia, coastal Antarctica) and anomalously warm temperatures over much of the Antarctic continent were also associated with strong planetary wave activity. The latter has potentially important implications for the interpretation of recent warming over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Garfinkel et al., 2015

“Correct representation of the SSTs changes is important for the Northern Hemisphere, while correct representation of stratospheric ozone changes is important for the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble-mean trend (which captures only the forced response) is nearly always much weaker than trends in reanalyses. This suggests that a large fraction of the recently observed changes [in sea surface temperatures, ozone] may, in fact, be a consequence of natural variability and not a response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcings.”

Flagship Daily ‘Die Welt’ Calls Germany’s Ban Of Internal Combustion Engines By 2030 A “Fairy Tale”

There have been a number of reports that Germany will ban the internal combustion engine (ICE) by the year 2030, i.e. in just 14 years. This has been already voted on by Germany’s Federal Council (Bundesrat).

Although 14 years can be plenty of time to usher in a technical revolution (e.g. think of how much technology changed from 1976 to 1990), it will not be anywhere enough time for Germany to overcome the huge technical and financial obstacles it faces in achieving the lofty target.

Already today leading German media outlets are dumping cold water on the news. For example online flagship national daily Die Welt comments here that the aim is nothing but a “fairy tale”, writing:

The discussed ban of cars with internal combustion engines by 2030 will not come. CSU politicians Seehofer and Dolbrindt are going to see to that.”

Even Germany’s leading Green Party politician Winfried Kretschmann, Minister of the state of Baden Württemberg, home to auto giant Daimler Benz, is opposed to a specific deadline. Die Welt writes that a number of leading politicians are not in favor of any deadline for abolishing ICEs, meaning there is no consensus to drive the ambitious project.

Another obstacle is the EU government in Brussels, which is responsible for regulating automobiles in Europe, thus making a go-it-alone by a single country impossible.

A further obstacle is the total lack of infrastructure for electric cars. According to Stefan Bratzel, Chief of the Center of Automotive Management (CAM):

We first need the necessary infrastructure, the charging stations, and enough power plants to supply clean electricity before cars with internal combustion engines can be replaced. That is not possible by 2030.”

Moreover, these “clean energy power plants” have been facing increasingly fierce opposition lately, as Germany’s landscapes have been spoiled by wind parks and consumers are angered by skyrocketing electricity prices, and industry concerned about an unstable power grid and the prospects of blackouts. It’s a fact that the installation of new wind energy capacity in Germany fell by almost 20% in 2015, from the high set in 2014.

In the ICE ban scheme, the state would not allow the registration of automobiles with internal combustion engines by 2030. The Bundesrat insists that the 2030 deadline is necessary if the country ever hopes to meet the target of a CO2-emissions-free transportation sector by the year 2050.

Minister of Transport: “utter nonsense”

Also Forbes Magazine here quoted Germany’s Minister of Transport, Alexander Dolbrindt, who called the German initiative “utter nonsense”. Forbes comments:

The ICE ban remains a dream of the more rabid among the proponents of all-electric transportation.”


Spiegel Journalist Calls Claims By Scientists That Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger “Sad”

Germany’s centre-left online weekly Die Zeit recently blared that Hurricane Matthew was “the strongest in 10 years“, and cited a scientist from the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).


Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski. Image cropped at Twitter.

The climate alarmist Die Zeit of course wants to have its readers believe that Matthew and all its destruction are because of climate change. To tell us why Matthew was “so strong”, Die Zeit journalist Alina Schadwinkel interviewed PIK scientist and Columbia University professor Anders Levermann.

Levermann implores that climate is a non-chaotic system

First Levermann tells Die Zeit how in order for a hurricane to form, it needs warm sea surfaces and the right atmospheric conditions. Strangely Levermenn then seems to be confused about what the nature of the climate system really is:

Unlike the climate, weather is chaotic and we do not know the entire atmosphere.” […] A forecast beyond three days is an enormous meteorological success.”

Here he seems to want to tell us that climate is not a chaotic system! One has to wonder if he really knows what he is talking about.

Much remains poorly understood

On El Niño’s impact on hurricanes, Levermann concedes that much remains poorly understood regarding the Pacific equatorial oceanic phenomenon, saying that “in El-Niño years there are less hurricanes. Why that is so also remains unclear.”

Stronger storms in the future due to warming

When asked if hurricanes will become more frequent in the future because of climate change, Levermann tells Die Zeit that they don’t know, but adds: “When such a storm occurs, it will be stronger because global warming provides more energy for the storm.”

Spiegel science journalist (and trained geologist) Axel Bojanowski reacted at Twitter to the claims made in the Levermann interview at Die Zeit, tweeting:

Sad that some climate scientists are claiming that hurricanes are getting stronger because of climate change.”

Moreover, Levermann also says that hurricanes cannot be ruled out for Europe in the future, and that they likely will form outside of the regular hurricane season as well!


Michael Mann Stumbles Again: Scientific ‘Consensus’ Says ‘Global Warming’ Leads To Less Intense, Less Frequent Hurricanes

A few days ago, “Hurricane” Matthew weakened into a Category 1 storm by the time it made landfall in the U.S., which means its official title has been changed to “post-tropical storm Matthew“.  Because it lost so much intensity and could no longer be considered a real hurricane as it made landfall, this development has further lengthened the more than 10-year drought of major, intense (Category 3 and up) hurricanes that have failed to strike the U.S. coasts.

John Sutter, a CNN columnist who focuses on social justice and climate change in his op-ed essays, claimed a few days earlier that humans, by causing the ocean temperatures to increase, are simultaneously causing hurricanes (or, in this case, tropical storms) to get even more intense than they otherwise would. He called this claim a “truth”, and implored American readers to “rid the economy of fossil fuels” so as to reduce storm intensities.

CNN (John Sutter):

“[T]here’s an uncomfortable truth the rest of us should wrestle with: Hurricane Matthew looks a lot like future climate change. And if we want to stop storms like this from getting even more intense, we need to do everything we can to rid the economy of fossil fuels.”

To garner support for his opinions, Sutter quoted Dr. Michael Mann — the Penn State meteorologist made famous in the early 2000s by creating the hockey stick graph of the entire Northern Hemisphere with tree ring data from a few trees in North America —  in the same opinion piece.  Mann claims that (a) oceans are the warmest they’ve ever been, that (b) this apparently unprecedented warmth “intensifies” storms, and that, (c) within the last year (since 2015), we have “seen the strongest hurricane in both hemispheres.”

Michael Mann:

Last year was the warmest our oceans have ever been on record. And that’s critical context.  It’s that warmth that provides the energy that intensifies these storms. And it isn’t a coincidence that we’ve seen the strongest hurricane in both hemispheres within the last year.”

It’s understandable that Sutter, a columnist, would be unfamiliar with what the scientific literature has to say about a link between warming ocean waters (by hundredths to tenths of a degree C) and the intensification of hurricanes.  He’s only taking the “experts” at their word when he calls it the “truth” that humans cause storms to become stormier.  But Michael Mann, on the other hand …he should simply know better.

First of all, the Pacific Ocean (where most hurricanes form) is currently not the warmest its ever been.  In fact, contrary to Mann’s hockey stick creations, the Pacific Ocean heat content is still cooler than it was just a few hundred years ago.   For example, Rosenthal et al. (2013), publishing in the journal Science (the same journal that published Mann’s tree-ring hockey stick creation), points out that the Pacific Ocean is still much cooler (0.65°C) than it was during the Medieval Warm Period, and the paleoclimate graph of the Pacific reveals that today’s temperatures are still some of the coldest of the last 10,000 years.

Rosenthal et al., 2013 (Pacific Ocean Heat Content)

“We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1°C and 1.5°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.”


But even more curious is Mann’s claim that this past year’s hurricanes are the strongest we have seen in both hemispheres.   It is clear the scientific literature does not support Mann’s claims that hurricanes have been observed to become more intense with warming (however modest that warming may be relative to the rest of the Holocene).  Even the IPCC (Chapter 2, WG1, AR5 2013) does not support Mann’s claims, citing low confidence in detecting a trend in increased hurricane intensities since 1900.

Simply put, the opposite of what Mann (and Sutter) claim to be “truth” about warming ocean temperatures and hurricane intensification is detailed in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.  Namely, observations indicate that there has been no trend in increased hurricane intensity in recent decades (i.e., Category 3 and up), and many observations even show there has been a slight decline in overall hurricane intensities since the middle of the 20th century.   Secondly, the frequency with which hurricanes make landfall have also been declining in recent decades.   And finally, it has been determined from paleoclimate analyses that cooler ocean temperatures are associated with more tropical storms and major hurricanes than warmer ocean temperatures.

Below there are 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers that summarize the literature on the lack of connection between ocean temperatures and hurricane variability.  Perhaps Sutter and Mann could find these educational.

No Trend Or Reduced Intensity Of Landfalling Hurricanes With Warming

Perrie et al., 2010

The impact of climate change is seen in slightly decreased intensities in landfalling cyclones.”

Klotzbach and Landsea, 2015

“[T]be global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend [1990-2014].”

Zhang et al., 2012

The various SST measures only have a weak influence on TMLGP [tropical cyclones making landfall, South China] intensities. Despite the long-term warming trend in SST in the WNP, no long-term trend is observed in either the frequency or intensities of TMLGP [tropical cyclones making landfall, South China].”

Landsea et al., 1996

A long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., averaged over all cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a significant change.”

Hsu et al., 2014

All of the counts, lifespans, and accumulated cyclone energy of the late-season typhoons during the 1995–2011 epoch decreased significantly, compared with typhoons that occurred during the 1979–94 epoch.”

Hoarau et al., 2012

There has been no trend towards an increase in the number of categories 3–5 cyclones over the last 30 years.”

Chang et al., 2016

“Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high impact weather over the mid-latitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America.”

Wu et al., 2006

[D]ata show a decrease in the proportion of category 4-5 typhoons from 18% to 8% between the two periods of 1977-1989 and 1990-2004 (Table 1; intensity estimates in terms of sustained maximum winds first became available in RSMC-Tokyo best track data in 1977).”

Chan and Liu, 2004

No significant correlation was found between the typhoon activity parameters and local SST [during 1960-2003]. In other words, an increase in local SST [sea surface temperatures] does not lead to a significant change of the number of intense TCs [tropical cyclones] in the NWP, which is contrary to the results produced by many of the numerical climate models.”

Zarzycki, 2016

“Multi-member ensembles show that the overall number of TCs [tropical cyclones] generated by the model is reduced by 5-9% when allowing for two-way air-sea interactions. TC [tropical cyclones] intensity is greatly impacted; the strongest 1% of all TCs are 20-30 hPa (4-8 m s−1) weaker and the number of simulated Category 4 and 5 TCs [tropical cyclones] are reduced by 65% in slab ocean configurations. Reductions in [tropical cyclone] intensity are in line with published thermodynamic theory.”

Blake and Landsea, 2011

[D]uring the 40-year period 1961-2000 both the number and intensity of landfalling U.S. hurricanes decreased sharply.  Based on 1901-1960 statistics, the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes during  the period 1961-2000 would have been 77 and 30, respectively. However, only 55 (or 71%) of the expected number of hurricanes struck the U.S. with only 19 major hurricanes (or 63% of that expected number).”

Sanchez and Cavazos, 2014

“[D]uring 1970−2010SST in the MDR [along Mexican coasts] showed a statistically significant increase of 0.57°C over the whole period, but the frequency of HUR4−5 [intense hurricanes, Category 4 and 5] did not show a significant trend, while the frequency of HUR1−5 [weak and intense hurricanes] significantly decreased (−0.95% yr−1).”

Free et al., 2004

“Long-term changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones are of considerable interest because of concern that greenhouse warming may increase storm damage. The PI [potential intensity of tropical cyclones] calculated using radiosonde data at 14 tropical island locations shows only small, statistically insignificant trends from 1980 to 1995 and from 1975 to 1995.  … Between 1975 and 1980, however, while SSTs rose, PI [potential intensity] decreased, illustrating the hazards of predicting changes in hurricane intensity from projected SST changes alone.”

Nott and Hayne, 2001

Our estimate of the frequency of such ‘super-cyclones’ [wind speeds in excess of 182 kilometers per hour] is an order of magnitude higher than that previously estimated.  … [The Great Barrier Reef] experienced at least five such storms over the past 200 years, with the area now occupied by Cairns experiencing two super-cyclones between 1800 and 1870.  The 20th century, however, was totally devoid of such [super-cyclone] storms, with only one such event (1899) since European settlement in the mid-nineteenth century.”

IPCC AR5 (2013) Working Group I, Chapter 2

“In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low

Reduced Frequency Of Landfalling Hurricanes With Warming

Knutson et al., 2008

“Here we assess, in our model system, the changes in large-scale climate that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century by an ensemble of global climate models, and find that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies are reduced. At the same time, near-storm rainfall rates increase substantially. Our results do not support the notion of large increasing trends in either tropical storm or hurricane frequency driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations.”

Chenoweth and Divine, 2008

“Our record of tropical cyclone activity reveals no significant trends in the total number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) in the best sampled regions for the past 318 years. However, the total number of hurricanes in the 20th century is 20% lower than in previous centuries. … Long-term variations in the number of tropical cyclones do not show any evidence of increasing storm frequency and have declined a nonstatistically significant amount.”

Haig et al., 2014

Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550–1,500 years

“The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years.”

Sugi and Yoshimura, 2012

“We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation.”

Hall and Hereid, 2015

As of the end of the 2014 hurricane season, the US has experienced no major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, a drought that currently stands at nine years. Here, we use a stochastic tropical-cyclone model to calculate the mean waiting time for multi-year landfall droughts. We estimate that the mean time to wait for a nine-year drought is 177 years. We also find that the average probability of ending the drought with a major landfall in the next year is 0.39, and is independent of the drought duration, as one would expect for a Bernoulli process.”

Wang and Lee, 2008

“Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes.”

Ha and Zhong, 2015

“Results show that the SCS TC [South China Sea tropical cyclone] activity experienced an abrupt decadal decrease at around 2002/2003. Compared to the TC [tropical cyclone] activities from the early 1990s to 2002, the number of TCs [tropical cyclones] formed in the SCS markedly decreased from 2003 through the early 2010s.”

Callaghan and Power, 2011

The linear trend in the number of severe TCs [tropical cyclones] making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TCs/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TCs/year in recent times—a 62% decline.”

Liu and Chan, 2013

“Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a significant interdecadal variation during 1960-2011, with two distinct active and inactive periods each. This study examines changes in TC [tropical cyclone] activity and atmospheric conditions in the recent inactive period (1998-2011). The overall TC [tropical cyclone] activity shows a significant decrease [1960-2011], which is partly related to the decadal variation of TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the WNP and the downward trend of TC genesis frequency in the main development region.”

Williams et al., 2016

“Bayesian age–depth models, derived from eight AMS radiocarbon dates, suggest that the frequency of typhoon strikes was 2–5 times greater from 3900 to 7800 cal. yr. BP compared to 0–3900 cal. yr. BP [calendar years before present]. Possible explanations for this variability in the typhoon record are that typhoons were more frequent and/or more intense in Southeast Asia in the mid-Holocene because of climatic changes associated with the Mid-Holocene Warm Period or that the record reflects site sensitivity changes resulting from a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand.”

Dezileau et al., 2016

Storms and tsunamis, which may seriously endanger human society, are amongst the most devastating marine catastrophes that can occur in coastal areas. Many such events are known and have been reported for the Mediterranean, a region where high-frequency occurrences of these extreme events coincides with some of the most densely populated coastal areas in the world. In a sediment core from the Mar Menor (SE Spain), we discovered eight coarse-grained layers which document marine incursions during periods of intense storm activity or tsunami events. Based on radiocarbon dating, these extreme events occurred around 5250, 4000, 3600, 3010, 2300, 1350, 650, and 80 years cal BP. No comparable events have been observed during the 20th and 21st centuries.”

IPCC AR5 (2013) Working Group I, Chapter 2

“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.”

Cooler (Not Warmer) Sea Surface Temps Produce More Frequent, Intense Hurricanes

Sugi et al., 2015

More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?

Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC [tropical cyclone] frequency significantly increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K-warmer climate.

Nott et al., 2007

“Our record demonstrates that the frequency variability of intense landfalling cyclones is greatest at centennial scale compared to seasonal and decadal oscillations[T]he period between AD 1600 to 1800 [Little Ice Age] had many more intense or hazardous cyclones impacting the site than the post AD 1800 period.”

Degear et al., 2015

“A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. … Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).”

Laliberte et al., 2015

“Our work illustrates a major constraint on the large-scale global atmospheric engine: As the climate warms, the system may be unable to increase its total entropy production enough to offset the moistening inefficiencies associated with phase transitions. … On a warming Earth, the increase in perceptible water has been identified as a reason for the tropical overturning to slow down, and studies over a wide range of climates suggest that global atmospheric motions are reduced in extremely warm climates.

German Scientists “Media Are Playing A Dangerous Game With Extreme Weather Fear”

Atmosfear: Media Are Playing A Dangerous Game With Extreme Weather Fear

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The history of science is rich in discoveries, progress, falsehoods and confusion. How will future generations see the history of climate science? Where are they going to set the point that distinguishes alarmism from reasonable science?

August 12, 2016 could be an important date on the way to answering this question. On that date Vladimir Jankovic and David Schultz of the University of Manchester published in the journal Weather, Climate and Society an important paper of great clarity and openness. In doing so, they coined an important new term: Atmosfear, the fanning of fear through the use suspected processes occurring in the atmosphere.

Jankovic and Schultz do not mince any words. They criticize the simplistic view that extreme weather is always the consequence of man’s activity and that it could be tamed simply by reducing emissions. The recent rise in extreme weather damage can be traced back almost entirely to societal factors, i.e. the increased number of insurance companies, insured values and people settling more in areas of hazard.

The paper’s abstract tells us the important points:

Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather
The potential and serious effects of anthropogenic climate change are often communicated through the soundbite that anthropogenic climate change will produce more extreme weather. This soundbite has become popular with scientists and the media to get the public and governments to act against further increases in global temperature and their associated effects through the communication of scary scenarios, what we term “atmosfear.” Underlying atmosfear’s appeal, however, are four premises. First, atmosfear reduces the complexity of climate change to an identifiable target in the form of anthropogenically forced weather extremes. Second, anthropogenically driven weather extremes mandate a responsibility to act to protect the planet and society from harmful and increased risk. Third, achieving these ethical goals is predicated on emissions policies. Fourth, the end-result of these policies—a non-anthropogenic climate—is assumed to be more benign than an anthropogenically influenced one. Atmosfear oversimplifies and misstates the true state of the science and policy concerns in three ways. First, weather extremes are only one of the predicted effects of climate change and are best addressed by measures other than emission policies. Second, a pre-industrial climate may remain a policy goal, but is unachievable in reality. Third, the damages caused by any anthropogenically driven extremes may be overshadowed by the damages caused by increased exposure and vulnerability to the future risk. In reality, recent increases in damages and losses due to extreme weather events are due to societal factors. Thus, invoking atmosfear through such approaches as attribution science is not an effective means of either stimulating or legitimizing climate policies.

And how did the German press deal with the study?

We googled “Atmosfear, Manchester, Extremwetter”. No hits. Yet another case of Total Silence (“Incredible String of Failures by Rahmstorf Continues“): New Study Finds no Robust Relationship Between Shrinking Sea Ice and European Cold Waves”, which the media completely ignored as well.


No New Record? UAH Data Show 2016 Still Trails Behind 1998 Record Warm Year

The following are excerpts from German skeptic site here, wobleibtdieerderwaermung.


By Schneefan

Already in August, is the year 2016 a bit cooler than the year 1998, according to satellite data from UAH. That situation remains the same as September saw a reading of +0.44°C.

The global 2m temperatures with a deviation of +0.38°K eased off slightly from the August reading of 0.42°K, see the following chart:

Die UAH-Grafik zeigt die monatlichen Abweichungen (blaue Linie) der globalen Temperaturen der unteren Troposphäre mit Schwerpunkt um 1500 m (TLT) sowie den laufenden Dreizehnmonatsdurchschnitt (rote Linie) von Dezember 1998 bis Juli 2016. Wegen eines kräftigen global zeitversetzt wärmenden El Niño-Ereignisses ab Sommer 2015 gab es auch bei den unverfälschten Datensätzen von UAH nach Monats-Rekordwerten von November 2015 bis März 2016 im Juni einen deutlichen Rückgang auf 0,34 K gegenüber dem Vormonaten Mai und April. Im Juli und August 2016 stagniert die globale Abkühlung mit einem geringen Anstieg auf 0,44 K Abweichung vorübergehend. Quelle:

The above UAH chart shows the monthly deviations from the mean (blue line) of the global temperatures of the lower troposphere at 1500 meters altitude (TLT) and the 13-month running average (red curve). Due to a powerful globally time-shifted El Niño event beginning in the summer of 2015, there was a record string of months from November to March. There was a strong retreat from April to June, with temperatures stagnant near 0.44°K over the past 3 months. Source: UAH Global Temperature Update for September 2016: +0.44°CC.

What follows is a direct comparison of the January – August period for both 1998 and 2016 El Niño years:

Der Screenshot zeigt den aktuellen Vergleich der monatlichen globalen UAH-Abweichungen als Vergleich zwischen 2016 und 1998. Mit den daten von Januar bis August liegt 2016 nun hinter 1998. Quelle:

The upper table shows the direct comparison of the global monthly UAH deviations from the mean for 1998 and 2016. The lower table shows that 2016, from January to August is now 0.06°K lower than 1998. Source: Global Temperature Report: August 2016.

Thus 1998’s lead is maintained when September is included, as there was no change.

After the temperature fall in May and June, the global cooling has taken a pause since July when observing the unfalsified global satellite data of the UAH. 

The UAH temperatures in the tropics for June show a record two month drop since satellite measurements began in 1979.

„…In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56°C, just edging out -0.55°C in June 1998 (also an El Nino weakening year).“

Using the unfalsified data for the first alf of the year, it is clear that 2016 is not the hottest year on record so far, and that it probably will not become the record year!

There is of course a chance that 2016 could finish equal or even a bit warmer than 1998, as Dr. Roy Spencer shows with last month’s chart:

Die UAH-Grafik zeigt die monatlichen Abweichungen (blaue Linie) der globalen Temperaturen der unteren Troposphäre mit Schwerpunkt um 1500 m (TLT) sowie den laufenden Dreizehnmonatsdurchschnitt (rote Linie) von Dezember 1998 bis August 2016. Wegen eines kräftigen global zeitversetzt wärmenden El Niño-Ereignisses ab Sommer 2015 gab es auch bei den unverfälschten Datensätzen von UAH nach Monats-Rekordwerten von November 2015 bis März 2016 im Juni einen deutlichen Rückgang auf 0,34 K gegenüber dem Vormonaten Mai und April. Im Juli und August 2016 stagniert die globale Abkühlung mit einem geringen Anstieg auf 0,44 K Abweichung vorübergehend. Der rote Pfeil rechts in der Grafik zeigt den mit roten Kringeln markierten weiteren Temperaturverlauf an, der nötig wäre, damit 2016 mit 1998 gleichzieht. Bei einem kälteren Verlauf bleibt 2016 weiter hinter 1998 zurück. Ähnliche vorübergehende monatliche Anstiege gab es auch 1998, bevor die Anomalien Anfang 1999 sogar in den negativen Bereich fielen. Quelle:

The arrow on the right side shows the temperature development that would be necessary for 2016 to reach 1998. Source:  UAH Global Temperature Update for September 2016: +0.44°C.

So what can we expect for the remainder of the year?

In October 2016 the retreat in global temperatures should resume because the global cooling La Niña is strengthening. Also the current strong retreat in sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the main El Niño region 3.4 is clear to see:

Der Plot zeigt die Entwicklung der täglichen SSTA zum international üblichen und von der WMO empfohlenen modernen Klimamittel 1981-2010 im maßgeblichen Niño-Gebiet 3.4 mit den Daten von NOAA/CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System). Die SSTA der La Niña-Werte von -0,5 K und kälter haben Mitte Juli die -0,5 K erreicht und unterschritten. Der Wert beträgt am 3.10.2016 nach einwöchigem kräftigem Rückang = -0,94 K. Quelle:

The above plot shows the daily SSTA in the El Niño 3.4 region as a deviation from the WMO 1981-2010 mean. The data are from NOAA/CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System). The value as of 3 October 2016 is  -0.94°K, well into La Nina territory. Source:

Rare Event …Millions Of Children Under 11 See First Time Major Hurricane Hit Florida!

After days of uncertainty, Hurricane Matthew finally took a track taking it directly to Florida. It’s the first major category hurricane to hit the sunshine state (and the US, if I’m not mistaken) in almost 11 years.

The last major hurricane to strike was Wilma in 2005. This 4000-day hiatus is a record since hurricane statistics began to be recorded in the 19th century. This all flies in the face of claims made by global warming believers and alarmists, who crystal-balled hurricane activity would become more frequent and ferocious over time. Yet, globally there has been no trend in global cyclone activity.

The reality is that Matthew will be the first major hurricane to hit that millions of children 12 years old and under can remember. And already no child on the planet under 18 years of age has seen any real global warming at all. Climate scientists could not have been more wrong.

Many more hurricanes when CO2 was low!

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell reminds us that hurricane activity was far worse in Florida some 70 years ago, in the 1940s, back when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were down near the 310 ppm level:

6 major hurricanes in 7 years with CO2 at 310 ppm!

Count them! Six major hurricanes in only 7 years. Imagine the hysteria if that were to happen during the present time. Instead we are getting the first one in over 10 years – an unusual period of calm.

Clearly this tells us that there’s a heck of a lot more to it than just a trace gas. Of course ocean and solar cycles are the major climate factors.

Everyone’s prepared – except for Trump!

drudge_hurricaneThe table is already being set for the upcoming Presidential debate. And I’m ready to bet my last dollar that Trump is going to fall in the trap and make a terrible impression like he did in the first debate. The trap this time: climate change and Hurricane Matthew.

Hollywood megastar Leonardo DiCaprio has already launched it by declaring that anyone who denies climate change is unfit for public office. Hurricane Matthew is now slamming into Florida, and Hillary Clinton is already blaming it on man. The timing just before the debate couldn’t be better. The debate is already rigged: It is going to feature climate change prominently, and Hillary is being prepared well for it. They are going to make Trump look like an uninformed fool – if he allows it.

Trump can avoid this:

1. He has to acknowledge that climate is always changing.
2. Man, however, is playing only a small role.
3. 97% consensus is phony – the science is hotly disputed.
4. Already 750 published papers since 2014 dismissing catastrophic AGW.
5. Temperature trend is far below what scientists projected in 2000.
6. Fact: NASA’s Gavin Schmidt has been altering the historic data.
7. Hurricanes are less frequent today then they were 50, 60 years ago.

He should then ask Hillary directly: Can you honestly promise less storms and nice weather in exchange for more regulation and taxes? If so, then she’s a weather charlatan.

It should take Trump about 60 seconds to say this. But, expect him to come in unprepared and to babble a bunch a nonsense and look bad.

In this debate I expect to see Trump fumble in his own end-zone. You just watch.