Dutch-Led Network Of International Experts Finds "Serious Errors" In Latest IPCC Report

Dutch-Led Network Of International Experts Finds “Serious Errors” In Latest IPCC Report

By P Gosselin on 12. May 2023

The UN Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) is misleading policy makers by focusing on an implausible worst-case emissions scenarios, concludes a new analysis report published by the Clintel Foundation: “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC“

The IPCC is hiding the good news about disaster losses and climate-related deaths and wrongly claims the estimate of climate sensitivity is above 2.5°C. Also errors in the AR6 report are worse than those that led to the IAC Review in 2010. concludes the report by The Climate Intelligence Foundation (Clintel), which was founded in 2019 by emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok.

Opposite of IPCC claims likely true

Another result: The IPCC ignored crucial peer-reviewed literature showing that normalized disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and that human mortality due to extreme weather decreased by more than 95% since 1920.

Clintel accuses the IPCC of cherry picking from the literature to claim increases in damage and mortality due to anthropogenic climate change, when in fact the opposite is likely true.

Rewrote climate history

The Clintel report is 180 pages long and the first serious international ‘assessment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report. In 13 chapters the Clintel report shows the IPCC rewrote climate history, and emphasizes an implausible worst-case scenario, favoring bad news and ignoring good news.

“The strategy of the IPCC seems to be to hide any good news about climate change and to hype anything bad,” reported the Clintel press release.

The errors and biases that Clintel documents in the report are far worse than those that led to the investigation of the IPCC by the Interacademy Councel (IAC Review) in 2010. Clintel believes that the IPCC should reform, or be dismantled.

Clintel is a network of international scientists who analyzed several claims from the Working Group 1 (The Physical Science Basis)
and Working Group 2 (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) reports. This led to the latest report: “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC”.

IPCC ignores 97% of all papers

Clintel explains how the IPCC ignored 52 out of 53 peer reviewed papers dealing with “normalized disaster losses” and found no increase in harms that could be attributed to climate change. Yet, the IPCC highlighted the single paper that claimed an increase in losses.

Cherrypicking, rewriting history

The IPCC also has tried to rewrite climate history by erasing the existence of the so-called Holocene Thermal Maximum (or Holocene Climate
Optimum), a warm period between 10,000 and 6000 years ago, and has introduced a new hockey stick graph, which is the result of cherry-picked proxies. The IPCC ignores temperature reconstructions that show more variability in the past, such as the well-documented Little Ice Age.

In its recent report, the IPCC also has grossly exaggerated sea level rise and CO2’s ability to warm the earth’s atmosphere and thus appears to have remained ‘addicted’ to its highest emissions scenario, so-called RCP8.5, which in recent years has been shown by several published papers to be implausible and thus should not be used for policy purposes.

Severely biased

“We are sorry to conclude that the IPCC has done a poor job of assessing the scientific literature,” the Clintel scientists report. “In our view the IPCC should be reformed, and should include a broader range of views. Inviting scientists with different views, such as Roger Pielke Jr and Ross McKitrick, to participate more actively in the process is a necessary first step.”

If the inclusion of other views does not permitted, then the IPCC should be dismantled, the scientists say.

Reality: Future is far less bleak

“Our own conclusions about climate – based on the same underlying literature – are far less bleak. Due to increasing wealth and advancing technology, humanity is largely immune to climate change and can easily cope with it. Global warming is far less dangerous to humanity
than the IPCC tells us.”

Clintel also published the World Climate Declaration, which has now been signed by more than 1500 scientists and experts. Its central message is “there is no climate emergency”.

Clintel press release here.

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Posted in Activism, Alarmism, Scepticism, Stupid Predictions | 2 Responses

New Study: Warmer Temperatures Associated With A Reduction In Storms, High Winds

By Kenneth Richard on 11. May 2023

The claim that rising global surface temperatures will induce more storm activity is contradicted by observations.

Scientists reporting on the contrasting albedo effects of clouds in the Northern vs. Southern Hemispheres (Blanco et al., 2023) assess clouds have a “profound” effect on the global radiation budget and thus our climate.

The Southern Hemisphere is cloudier than the Northern Hemisphere at the same latitudes, and hence the sea surface temperatures are colder.

In contrast to the claim that warmer temperatures fuel more storms and stronger winds, cloud-albedo-induced colder temperatures are viewed as a trigger (“cloud-controlling factor”) for the stronger Southern Hemisphere’s wind speeds and storm tracks.

This is the opposite of what is claimed by proponents of anthropogenic global warming, as it implies we get fewer or less intense storms as the surface warms.

Image Source: Blanco et al., 2023

Theoretical physics also supports the observation that warmer surface temperatures lead to fewer, not more, storm events. Heat reduces the capacity for the hydrological cycle to do work, or power “large-scale atmospheric circulation or…very intense storms” (Laliberte et al., 2015).

Image Source: Laliberte et al., 2015

Indeed, long-term storm records also support the conclusion that colder periods have more and stronger storms, and warmer periods have fewer and less intense storms. (Degeai et al., 2015).

Image Source: Degeai et al., 2015

The alleged negative effects of having a warmer world are, once again, contradicted by observations.

Posted in Cloud Climate Influence, Cooling/Temperature | Leave a response

NASA Data: Southern Hemisphere Cooled Over Past Decade…Northern Hemisphere No Rise!

By P Gosselin on 10. May 2023

NASA data show no planetary warming over the past decade. Are we heading for cooling?

Twitter account Zacki here tweeted on the northern and southern hemisphere sea land land surface temperature trend over the past decade, using NASA GISS data.

First lets begin with the northern hemisphere for the past 9 years:

There’s been no general rise in temperature, despite all the claims of a planet that is allegedly rapidly heating.

Next we look at the southern hemisphere:

What a surprise! Global warming isn’t global any more. As the chart shows, the southern hemisphere has in fact cooled over the recent years.

NASA may have to change the chart heading to: “Global cooling: monthly temperature anomaly”

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Misc. | Leave a response

US Has Had An “Historic Winter” As “All Western States Have Seen Record Snowfall”

By P Gosselin on 9. May 2023

By Christian Freuer, EIKE
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

The western US has had an historic winter. From record-breaking cold spells to unprecedented amounts of snow, this has been a memorable cold season – and one that runs counter to the prophecies of the AGW party.

Starting with the cold – and according to data from the warmth-addicted NOAA – the US has set 7 all-time low temperature records so far this year (through April 24) compared to just one heat record, while 321 monthly lows have fallen in April alone (also through April 24) compared to 66 heat records.

Highest April 1st snow cover recorded this year

Regrading snow, in the official books going back to 2001, the largest area ever covered with snow/ice in the western US at the beginning of April so far was 2019’s 1,030,820 sq km, but this year that figure was far exceeded, with satellite imagery showing that more than 1,149-960 sq km of the West was covered with snow and ice on 1 April.

By comparison, the average snowpack in the western US at the end of March is 242,000 square miles.

According to NSIDC data, snowpack this season was well above the April 1 average in all western states. In the table below, South Dakota, Nebraska and Arizona lead the way with 350% of the average, followed closely by Nevada:

Source: NSIDC

All western US states have seen above-average snowfall; in fact, all have set records:

Meanwhile across the pond, the official UK low of -7.4°C was recorded on April 27 in Loch Glascarnoch, Scotland. This broke the previous low of -6.1°C recorded in 1956 in Glenlivet. It’s been quiet for Britain’s climate alarmists, as record cold blanketed the country.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Weather | 6 Responses

New Study: 90% Of Recent Warming Is From Shortwave Cloud Forcing…Humans Contributed 0.03°C

By Kenneth Richard on 8. May 2023

Data analysis again reveals the increase in absorbed shortwave forcing has been driving modern climate change since the 1970s. CO2 changes are more of an effect than a cause of temperature increases.

Scientists have for years been pointing to the causality sequencing problem inherent in the claim that CO2 is the driver of temperature changes.

The sequencing observation clearly supports the conclusion that variations in the CO2 growth rate lag changes in temperatures by about 4-10 months (Humlum et al., 2013, Koutsoyiannis and Kundzewicz, 2020, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2022). Effects can only lag – not lead – causes.

Wang et al. (2013) further estimate only 10% of the variance in global CO2 growth rates can be explained by fossil fuel emissions. Instead, there is a “strong and persistent coupling (r² ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land-surface temperature during 1959-2011.”

Image Source: Wang et al., 2013

Building on this temperature→CO2 directional causality, Jyrki Kauppinen and Pekka Malmi (2023), Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, have used existing CO2 and temperature data to calculate an 83 ppm CO2 increase associated with a 1°C surface temperature increase. The authors suggest this 83 ppm/°C value is consistent with Henry’s Law and CO2 residence time calculations.

Kauppinen and Malmi further assess the warming in recent decades has been predominantly (90%) driven by the increase in absorbed solar radiation due to the downward trend in cloud cover.

The greenhouse effect has contributed just 10% to the warming trend, and the human contribution to the CO2 concentration changes is only a fraction (hundredths of a degree) of that 10% impact – about 0.03°C since 1980.

Thus, not only is the “causality used in IPCC reports wrong,” but “the greenhouse effect cannot explain climate change.”

“Since 1970, according to the observations, the changes of the low cloud cover have caused practically the observed temperature changes. The low cloud cover has gradually decreased starting in 1975. The human contribution was about 0.01°C in 1980 and now it is close 0.03°C.”

Image Source: Kauppinen and Malmi, 2023

Posted in Climate Sensitivity, Cloud Climate Influence, CO2 and GHG | 1 Response

Manmade: Studies Suggest That Wind Parks Cause Climate Change, Even Regional Drought

By P Gosselin on 7. May 2023

Plastering the landscape with wind turbines for producing renewable energy may lead to regional drought.

Germany has so far installed over 30,000 wind turbines, which is about 1 every 11 sq. km. Plans are calling for doubling or even tripling wind power capacity. But this may be detrimental as new studies show that wind farms are altering local climates, and thus may be having an effect on global climate and contributing to regional droughts.

Northern Germany, for example, has a high concertation of of wind turbines and has seen an unusual dry spell since 2019. Fortunately, recent rains have alleviated these drought conditions. Alarmist climate scientists of course blamed rising CO2 emissions for the North German drought.

Yet, a recent paper by Wang et al (2023) shows that wind farms reduce regional soil moisture, thus confirming earlier model simulations of wind-park-made climate change, e.g. by Zhou et al (2013).

German online SciFi site here reports in depth on the topic. “Climate change: Wind farms cause drought and dryness – Evidence is mounting [New study]“.

The site presents one chart depicting the wind energy installation concentration over Germany:

The North Sea region has an extremely high concentration of installed wind energy capacity. Conversely, Southern Germany has a very low concentration of installed wind energy capacity. Image: Bundesamt für Naturschutz.

Next we look at a chart depicting the ground moisture across Germany (2019). The left side shows the moisture anomaly down to a soil depth of 25 cm while the right chart shows moisture anomaly down to depth of 1.8 meters.

The legend shows, the redder the area, the drier it is. Germany’s drought happens to be worse in the regions with lots of wind turbines. Scientists suspect these turbines may be playing a role here. Image: Drought Monitor Germany.

“Is it a coincidence that the soils are driest where most wind turbines are located?” SciFi wonders.

Mounting evidence of link between drought and wind parks

In the article, SciFi examines a number of published research papers on the subject and summarizes:

As a conclusion, it can be said that it is certain that wind farms change the local climate. Very large wind farms or many wind farms also have an effect on the global climate. The results are mostly based on simulation models, whereby the study by Zhou et al. (2013), which was able to draw on comparative data, confirms the results found in the simulation models. The new study by Wang et al. (2023), which we discussed today, confirms the model calculations using real data obtained from a Chinese wind farm and shows for the first time that soil moisture is reduced by wind farms not only downwind but also upwind.

Wind farms thus contribute significantly to the drying out of soils, and to drought.”

Hat-tip: EIKE.

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Drought and Deserts | 12 Responses

April 2023 In Central Europe Cooler And Wetter Than Normal…Like The 1960s

By P Gosselin on 5. May 2023

Germany April 2023 was the wettest in 15 years, 1.5°C cooler than mean

Symbol photo by P. Gosselin

According to the preliminary data gathered from the German DWD National Weather Service’s 2000 surface stations, April ,2023, was the first to be wetter than normal in 15 years. Over the past decade and a half before 2023, April had been always too dry.

According to DWD spokesman Uwe Kirsche, “For the first time in 15 years, an April in Germany was too wet again.” The rainy April helps to further relieve a drought situation that had plagued the country over the recent years.

1.5°C cooler than normal

The mean temperature in April, 2023, in Germany was 7.5 degrees Celsius. Compared to the current internationally valid 1991 to 2020 reference period, April thus ended up being 1.5 degrees Celsius too cool.

Cool phases dominated the first and last week of April at times – with icy nights at the beginning of the month. Carlsfeld in the Erzgebirge Mountains recorded the lowest temperature in Germany on the 5th with -8.8 °C. The temperature dropped to -4.8 °C from the 21st to the 23rd.

The temperature peaks were reported by Nienburg in Lower Saxony and Jena in Thuringia on the 22nd with 24.6 °C each. Thus, for the first time since 2008, there was not a single summer-like day with a reading of over 25 °C in Germany in April.

Wetter than normal

According to preliminary calculations by the DWD, 64 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell in April, thus making the month 40 percent wetter than the 1991 – 2020 reference period (45 l/m²). The highest monthly amounts (200 l/m²) were recorded in the Bavarian Alps, while the Baltic Sea region remained very dry with less than 20 l/m² in some areas.

Drought conditions subside

On the balance, the DWD noted a further recovery of soil moisture nationwide. Up to the 24th of April, it was within the range of the seasonal average values compared to the average of the period 1991-2020 in parts of the mountains and from the Baltic Sea to the northern center, otherwise it was widely above. See the current DWD report of May 2,, 2023.

With about 150 hours, sunshine in April was well below its mean value of 183 hours seen for the 1991 – 2020 reference period.

Like the 1960s

In terms of temperature and precipitation, April 2023 in Germany was similar to the Aprils of the older and colder 1961-1990 reference period, which saw a mean temperature of only 7.4°C and mean precipitation of 58 liters per square meter.

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Posted in Misc. | 2 Responses

New Study: Climate Models Have Uncertainties, Errors Over 100x Larger Than Claimed Drivers Of Warming

By Kenneth Richard on 4. May 2023

Per a new study on the hydrological cycle’s role in climate change, today’s state-of-the-art climate models “assume the mean relative humidity at the ocean surface is constant.” They are also known to “assume unchanged wind conditions.” Even with this imaginary constancy, “uncertainties in modeling the hydrological cycle significantly [orders of magnitude, or more than 100-fold] exceed the observed effects of global warming.”

In a summarizing analysis of the thermodynamics associated with Earth’s hydrological processes (Koutsoyiannis, 2021), we learn that the impact of the natural heat exchange by evaporation, or the latent heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, is approximately 80 W/m²/year, or 1,290 ZJ/year.

Total climate impacts from human greenhouse gas emissions amount to only 0.038 W/m²/year (0.612 ZJ/year in 2014).

Thus, Earth’s “natural locomotive” is about 2,100 times larger than claimed for anthropogenic forcing.

It is therefore clearly evident that “water is the main element that drives climate, rather than just being affected by climate as commonly thought.”

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2021

The below quote selections from a new review paper (Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023) on the thermodynamics of air-sea processes (i.e., evaporation) expand on the extreme nature of this magnitude differential in even more detail.

The ocean’s heat capacity is 1,000 times larger than the atmosphere’s. An ocean heat flux of 0.005 W/m²/year can thus warm air temperatures 2°C/century.

Uncertainty in estimating latent heat flux and relative humidity is 5-6 W/m². This means uncertainty and error are about 1,100 times larger than the identified global warming terms.

The dominance of water in driving climatic processes is so massive that claims we can detect a 0.038 W/m²/year anthropogenic forcing signal amid the orders of magnitude larger background of internal or natural variability, uncertainty, and calculative error is, in a word, absurd.

“[T]he climate of the Earth is ultimately determined by the temperatures of the oceans,” as “the oceans have a heat capacity about 1000 times greater than the atmosphere and land surface.” Because this orders-of-magnitude oceanic dominance, even “a minor heating flux of just 0.005 W/m² is sufficient to raise the atmospheric temperature at an observed rate of 2 °C per century.”

“[A]n error of 1% in RH [relative humidity] … would cause an error of 5 W/m² in the computed ocean atmosphere latent heat fluxes. For comparison, the observed global warming of the atmosphere is driven by a minor climatic forcing of only 0.005 W/m², the total anthropogenic power consumption amounts to 0.02 W/m², and the ocean is warming up by 0.5 W/m².”

“[N]umerical climate models possess uncertainties that exceed certain relevant, either observed or predicted, effects of global warming by orders of magnitude.”

“[T]he global mean of LHF [latent heat flux] was found to be overestimated in the MME [multi-model ensemble] by 5.9 W/m²…”

“Observations and models of oceanic evaporation typically deviate from one another by 6 W/m², or 6%.”

“If also expressed per global surface unit area, even an increase in the large oceanic heat content by as much as 0.5 W/m² would remain well below the model uncertainty range.”

Image Source: Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023

Posted in Models, Oceans | 2 Responses

Where’s The Warming? April In Tokyo Hasn’t Warmed In 35 Years…Hachijo-jima Island In 80 Years!

By P Gosselin on 2. May 2023

Charts by Tony Heller’s wife, Kirye

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has released the mean temperature data for April, 2023, for Tokyo and its island in the Pacific: Hachijō-jima.

April is the big month of spring, and warming would tell us that this month ought to be getting colder due to more CO2 in the atmosphere. But the data doesn’t show that.

Here’s the April mean temperature data for the city of Tokyo since 1988:

The April, 2023, mean temperature for Tokyo was a warm 16.3°C, but the trend for the least 35 years still shows no warming. Data source: JMA.

Indeed April mean temperatures for the city of Tokyo hasn’t warmed since James Hansen warned of catastrophic global warming before Congress.

Hachijō-jima

April mean temperatures of Tokyo’s island of Hachijō-jima (located in the Pacific Ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo) going back to 1944. The island is rural and free of the urban heat island (UHI) effects.

Data source: JMA.

Here we see that Hachijo-jima’s April mean temperature hasn’t risen in some 80 years! We’ve provided the links so readers can check the data themselves.

Warming little to do with CO2

If we go back to the time since temperature recording began, it’s true that both locations have warmed. Yet if we compare mean daily of maximum temperature of (urban) Tokyo’s rate to rural Hachijō-jima, we see a glaring urban heat island (UHI) difference:

Data source: JMA

While mean daily maximum temperature in rural Hachijo-jima has risen only very modestly, the rise has been much greater in urban Tokyo, especially over the most recent decades.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature

Scientists Employ Wit To Highlight The Lack of Climate Trends Across Greece Since The 1800s

By Kenneth Richard on 1. May 2023

The accumulation of over two centuries of precipitation records across Greece indicates there have been overall slightly declining trends in precipitation extremes across the region and “negligible climate variability.” This supports a new study’s tongue-in-cheek title referencing a “404 Not Found” climate crisis.

Eight scientists have published a new study examining the popularized conceptualization of an anthropogenically-induced climate change that has increasingly become “the post-modern scapegoat for which every disaster is blamed.” The authors point out, for example, that even the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic has been blamed on a human-caused warming climate.

The study utilizes detailed precipitation data available for Greece, as these climate records often extend to the early 1800s.

The scientists tendentiously searched for climate-related (i.e., 30+ years) trends that might confirm there is a “climate emergency, climate crisis, etc.” in the works linked to an anthropogenic influence.

However, no trend consistent with any anthropogenic climate influence could be found in the records. Hence, the wit-intended “404 Not Found” study title (which one of the 3 peer-reviewers recommended be kept in the final publication rather than discarded).

“The current period can be characterized as normal without notable climatic events.”

“The overall period does not show a linear trend or appreciable difference in the two 30-year climate periods.”

“…precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades.”

Analyses of precipitation extremes may even support a “decreasing, albeit slightly” trend over the two centuries, as the record average and maximum rainfall depths occurred in the 1800s or early 1900s.

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023

In anticipation of the timeworn, “But Greece is not the globe!” criticism, it should be noted that comprehensive analysis of global-scale precipitation data in the satellite era also do not support detection of intensifying trends associated with the timing of the sharp rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions or a warming climate.

Image Source: Nguyen et al., 2018

Posted in Alarmism, Climate Politics, Scepticism | 5 Responses

Let Them Ride Bikes! German Green Party Minister Uses Official Car To Fetch Her Forgotten Jacket

By P Gosselin on 30. April 2023

Green minister uses government car to fetch forgotten jacket while calling on citizens to ride bicycles

The climate activists are hypocrites who often preach water while guzzling wine.

Days ago we reported on how EU Council President Charles Michel, “in true bourgeois style”, spent a staggering 700,000 euros on private jet flights that even included short city-hops.

Here’s another example in Germany presented by Pleiteticker.de: While calling on citizens in a campaign to cycle to work, even in lousy weather to save energy, Brandenburg’s Health Minister Ursula Nonnemacher has recently come under fire for using a government car to fetch a jacket she had forgotten in the the Bundestag. The car had to travel from Potsdam to Berlin (36 km) for the trivial errand.

Serial hypocrites

“In the past, Nonnenmacher also preferred petrol-powered official cars over the mandatory e-cars,” Pleiteticker reports. “As became known, in spring 2021 she had her forgotten jacket fetched in the Bundesrat by an official car belonging to her state secretary. The car drove from Potsdam to Berlin especially for this purpose.”

Later in April 2021, Nonnemacher also “used a petrol car for an official trip to Ravensbrück, although she actually had an electric official car at her disposal.”

Meanwhile, tax-paying citizens are being asked to forego cars, heat, meat, flying and bathing.

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Posted in Lifestyles of the Rich and Alarmist | 2 Responses

Irony: German Bundestag Admits Conversion To Heat Pump Systems For Its Own Buildings Not Possible!

By P Gosselin on 28. April 2023

Yet, expects its own citizens to convert their homes beginning next year!

Critical website Pleiteticker.de here reports on how the buildings of the Bundestag (Federal Parliament) will not be able to convert over to heat pumps without comprehensive renovations that would run well into the millions.

Currently the Bundestag is predominantly heated with oil and gas or bio-diesel, According to an answer by the Bundestag administration to a question by FDP member of parliament Torsten Herbst: In 2022, almost 2.7 million liters of biodiesel were consumed, as well as about 1.1 million cubic meters of natural gas,” it says.

While the government demands citizens switch, Bundestag is unable to!

Recall how the government plans to force Germans to ditch their gas and oil heating systems and to install a heat pump in their place, beginning already next year – a costly endeavor. The irony here, however, is that it has been revealed that for the Bundestag, the very heart of the German legislature, “a conversion to electric heating systems is currently not possible,” reports Pleiteticker. “The heating systems of the German Bundestag are not suitable for the heat pump systems available today due to the required inflow temperatures of up to 110 °C.”

Out of touch

Currently the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning (BBR) is looking into the structural and technical possibilities for reducing energy consumption by the existing Bundestag buildings and developing “climate-neutral energy concept in the long term”. Yet, somehow the government expects private citizens to accomplish the feat already next year!

Pleiteticker sums up: “At the same time, the Bundestag obliges the installation of a new heating system from 2024 onwards to be powered by at least 65 percent renewable energies. This will make the installation of a heat pump the only option for many. However, the Bundestag cannot itself easily equip its own buildings with them…”

But rest assured, the government will find a way to make its buildings climate-neutral, costs be damned. The taxpayers will simply be forced to pick up the tab – no matter how large it will be.

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Posted in Misc. | 11 Responses

Dutch-Led Network Of International Experts Finds "Serious Errors" In Latest IPCC Report