Magnitude Of Recent Surface Solar Radiation Forcing Over US Is Tens Of Times Greater Than From CO2

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Over the US, the modest change in cloud cover from 1996-2019 predominantly drove the +11.77 W/m² surface solar radiation forcing during 1996-2012 (then -2.35 W/m² from 2013-2019). These “brightening” and “dimming” magnitudes easily overwhelm the values associated with an annual 2 to 2.5 ppm rise in CO2 forcing (0.2 W/m² per decade).

When cloud cover changes by even a percentage point or two from one decade to the next, the magnitude of the associated forcing can be compared directly to the impact of rising CO2 concentrations. And in a new study, Augustine and Hodges (2021) point out:

“Documented magnitudes of brightening are significant and much larger than the projected increase in downwelling longwave radiation (LW↓) expected for a doubling of CO2 since industrial times (~4 W/m²)”

Translated, the total projected forcing associated with a doubling of the CO2 concentration since 1750 (280 ppm to 560 ppm) is only 3.7 W/m² (Seinfeld, 2008).

Image Source: Seinfeld, 2008

On a per-decade basis, a 22 ppm rise in CO2 – realized about every 10 years in recent decades – is associated with a forcing of just 0.2 W/m² (Feldman et al., 2015), but only when the sky is clear of clouds. And cloud-free skies are rarely ever observed in the real world atmosphere, as “less than 10 percent of the sky is completely clear of clouds at any one time” (NASA, 2015).

Image Source: Feldman et al., 2015

In stark contrast to these radiative forcing magnitudes from CO2 changes, small changes in cloud cover can explain 62% of the +11.77 W/m² increase (1996-2012) and -2.35 W/m² decrease (2013-2019) in surface solar radiation over the continental US in the last 20-25 years (Augustine and Hodges, 2021).

Another 3% of the recent brightening/dimming trends over the US are explained by aerosol forcing. And, interestingly, even this forcing is said to be about 3 to 4 times larger than that of the CO2 impact. The 0.05 reduction in aerosol optical depth from 1997-2019 “corresponds to a direct radiative forcing of +1.59 W/m²” (Augustine and Hodges, 2021).

Across Europe, other scientists have suggested the magnitude of surface solar radiation forcing was +10 W/m² per decade from the 1930s to 1950s, -13 W/m² per decade from the 1950s to 1980s, and then +10 W/m² per decade from the 1990s to 2000s.

Image Source: Augustine and Hodges, 2021

Across Brazil, another new study (Zuluaga et al., 2021) indicates the decline in cloud cover has resulted in about a +3 W/m² per decade forcing since 1980.

Image Source: Zuluaga et al., 2021

All of these forcing magnitudes easily dwarf the impact from CO2 concentration increases in cloud-free skies and affirm “clouds may be the most important parameter controlling the radiation budget, and, hence, the Earth climate” (Sfîcă et al., 2021).

Image Source: Sfîcă et al., 2021
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While “Experts” Like To Have Us Believe Germany Is Still In Drought – Real Observations Tell Us Another Story

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Continued claims of a German drought have become preposterous.

During today’s Sunday walk, I observed how much rain we’ve been getting here in northwest Germany lately – see photos below.

Many of the farmers’ fields have become flooded, streams and rivers are at high levels and ditches are full of water.

Yet, some alarmists out there would like to have us believe Germany is still reeling from drought and that it’s too early call off the alarm.

In spring 2021, Germany received 175 l/m² precipitation compared with the mean of 171 l/m² for the 1991 to 2020 reference period. While March and April came in too dry, May saw unusually high precipitation compared to the previous years. The start of June has also been wet.

But in its most recent report, the German DWD national weather service again highlighted the ancient, wetter 1961-1990 reference period, because it allowed them to say spring came in drier than normal for the eighth consecutive year. The DWD want us to think there’s still a drought and that all that water out there should just be ignored.

Germany in drought?

Another trick the alarmists use is a color chart depicting the drought intensity in across Germany – for 1.8 meters soil depth! And here the data are not even actually measured, but rather are modelled, as explained here.

Here’s what they want us to think the situation is like in Germany (June 4, 2021):

Chart source: UFZ

“Oh my God!” many people might think when they see the chart. “It’s dry out there!” The media love using the above chart because of all the computer model-generated red color.

But what’s the reality?

Yet, when we check the chart for plant-available water development from June 4th, 2021, the uppermost 25 cm of soil, the story looks very different:

It’s wet! But the media never report on the above chart.

Photos of the German “drought”

Today I made some photos of the “drought” in Northwest Germany to show you just how dreadfully dry everything has gotten – because of fossil fuels of course. (Attention: sarcasm).

Below, entire sections of crop fields are under water from recent heavy rains:

Photo: P. Gosselin

But hey, our models tell us the ground is really dry – 1.8 meters deep – that’s what really counts!

What follows is not a picture of some Southeast Asian rice field. It’s Germany suffering drought conditions, the media like to tell us. Another soaked field:

Photo: P. Gosselin

The tree in the next photo is definitely suffering from drought stress – due to manmade climate drying:

Photo: P. Gosselin

White asparagus (Spargel) is a German favorite at this time of year. But this year’s harvest is being severely hampered by the North German drought now taking place (2 meters under the ground, models say):

Photo: P. Gosselin

Yes, German farmers are praying day and night for badly needed rain because their fields are so parched (sarcasm):

Photo: P. Gosselin

No, the following is not the Garden of Eden. It’s what drought-stricken North Germany looks like right now. Just ignore all the green color and damp appearance:

Photo: P. Gosselin

The windmills still aren’t working to rescue the climate – just look at how parched this field is:

Photo: P. Gosselin




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NoTricksZone Twitter Account Sent To The Gulag…Dissent, Criticism Of Authorities Unwelcome

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For the third time in about 2 weeks, our NoTrickZone Twitter account has been sent to the social media gulag – this time for seven days. An outright suspension appears to be closing in.

The future for dissenters is looking like the dark days of past tyrannies. Photo – 1930, public domain.

Unwelcome dissent

The latest claimed “violation” was: spreading “false information” about COVID 19 vaccinations. The tweet that violated Twitter rules was me retweeting a link to an interview with Dr. Peter McCollough, who warned that there are risks involved with the COVID vaccines. That’s all it takes nowadays: A little dissent, and you’re out in the cold. All you need to do is express doubts about effectiveness and safety of the new, trial skipping vaccines.

Though my account can be accessed and is fully intact, I’ve had a number “privilege’s” revoked, such as retweeting, tweeting and liking.

Appeal gets denied

The second time Twitter blocked the NTZ account, just a few days earlier, I was able to successfully appeal it and all privileges were reinstated within 6 hours. This time though, the 3rd time, they refused.

The first time NTZ account was blocked, some 2 weeks ago, I called the vaccines “experimental”:

Twitter got really upset about this tweet, and sent me to the social media gulag for 12 hours.

Today it seems we are not allowed to challenge the authorities. Sound familiar? If it doesn’t, then you need to read a little history.

Is climate dissent next?

So what’s next? Are they going to move their censorship to other fields like climate change and renewable energies? It’s very well possible, and at this point I’d say likely. It won’t be allowed to challenge the climate authorities during “times of crisis and instability”.

Moving to suspend dissent

Twitter guidelines and rules state that those who repeatedly commit “violations” risk being permanently suspended. This is probably what’s behind it all. Count every little thing has a violation and then they can claim they have grounds to suspend all the pesky dissenters.

In today’s technological world, dissenters without social media are as good as silenced. We’ve entered really dangerous territory.

Totalitarian shut down of free expression

What kind of society do we live in where dissent and other views are banished from the public forum? The only ones I can think of are totalitarian regimes like the former USSR, former communist German “Democratic” Republic, a.k.a East Germany, North Korea and the likes.

The right to challenge authority is what made and keeps our western democracies so great. That essential right is being undermined.

The real threat to democracy

We often here about disinformation being “a threat to our democracy”, yet the very people who go around stifling information, open discussion, dissent and freedom of expression are the ones who are the real threat to what’s left of our democracy.

Something needs to be done about the Big Tech communication platforms because they are clearly abusing their power. If you aren’t allowed to retweet a link to an interview with a renowned medical expert, then you know things really have gotten off the rails.

“Gain of function” scandal? Shocking findings?

There really does seem to be something really desperate taking place. Why so touchy about COVID-19 and vaccines? Some are suggesting there’s a real scandal behind it all.

One doctor recently came out and characterized the mRNA vaccines as a toxin that can potentially do great harm instead of good.




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In The 1700s It Was Said Women Cause ‘Unnatural’ Weather. Now Mainstream Science Says Men Do Too.

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It used to be thought that women were “indeed responsible for the weather” (extreme temperatures, storms, “unnatural” precipitation, etc.). Those women thought guilty of “weather-making” were imprisoned and burned at the stake. Mainstream science has advanced since then. Now it’s believed men (and children) also cause extreme weather and climate.

Believing CO2 is the climate control knob is like believing in magic

Per “conservative estimates” of natural variability in “net longwave radiation at the ocean surface” (Fung et al., 1984), on the rare occasion the atmosphere is free of clouds (“clear sky conditions”) variations in the temperature and specific humidity introduce variability in longwave flux at the ocean surface (LW⇅) of 30 to 40 W/m². When low clouds are present, there is an additional LW⇅ perturbation beyond that facilitated by temperature and specific humidity amounting to 70 W/m². The mid-latitudes can even experience LW⇅ perturbations spanning from -44 W/m² to +74 W/m² when under cloudy conditions. Errors in calculating LW⇅ perturbations can reach 50 W/m².

In stark contrast to the enormous effects clouds, specific humidity, and temperatures in perturbing the net longwave radiation at the ocean surface (and the errors in calculating these effects), CO2 may only introduce a total net longwave impact of 1 to 2 W/m² after about 400 years, or after its concentration doubles from 300 to 600 ppm (0.03 to 0.06%).

Image Source: Fung et al., 1984

This massive magnitude problem for those who believe CO2 drives radiation budget changes (and, hence, climate change) is often dismissed or ignored.

Atmospheric physicist and IPCC lead author Dr. Richard Lindzen hasn’t dismissed or ignored this magnitude problem, however. He once famously said believing CO2 controls Earth’s climate (because it perturbs the energy budget by a whopping 2% when its concentration is doubled from 300 to 600 ppm) is “pretty close to believing in magic.”

Image Source: Lindzen, 2017

From the 16th to 19th centuries, it was widely thought women could control weather and climate

The span of centuries encompassing the Little Ice Age (roughly the ~1500s to 1800s CE) was inundated with decadal-scale cold climates, enhanced storminess, droughts, and consequent crop failures. It was during this era that the prevailing “scientific theory” popularized by leading demonologists was that weather and storms that were naturally derived could be easily distinguished from weather and storms whipped up by women who made pacts with the Devil (Behringer, 1999).

Demonologists insisted women “can raise storms and tempests in the air either upon the sea or land…so as to [cause] trouble,” and this particular type of womanly weather-making was “very easy to be discerned from any other natural tempests that are not nature’s, in respect to the sudden and violent raising thereof”.

In the 1500s, European women who were suspected of “weather-making” (i.e., brewing up severe storms and sustained cold temperatures that led to crop failures) were hunted down, imprisoned, and sometimes burned alive.

The viewpoint women were responsible for extreme weather  wasn’t covert or unconventional, but widely held.

“Since everybody thought that the continuous crop failure was caused by [women] of devilish hate, the whole country stood up for their eradication…” (Behringer, 1988).

Image Source: Behringer, 1999

In the 21st century, it’s widely thought that women and men control weather and climate

The modern-day emphasis on computer modeling and achieving “consensus” in the scientific community has enlightened scientists to expand the causal attribution for extreme weather and climate change.

Instead of just being caused by women, men (and children) are now thought to be responsible for causing weather (severe storms, drought, heat waves, cold waves) and climate changes too. Why? Like women, men use electricity, drive vehicles, and ride in jet planes. These CO2-emitting activities are thought to be the “control knob” governing Earth’s temperature.

It’s now even considered “consensus” science that women and men (teenagers too!) can heat the planet just by using smartphones.

Image Source: Salon

According to Dr. Michael E. Mann, women and men are today worsening storms and droughts and floods – both too much and too little precipitation – at the same time and with the same mechanism: CO2 emissions. And, like demonologists of the past, scientists like Mann suggest it’s so easy to discern this human/CO2 emissions impact on precipitation from naturally-occurring precipitation. After all, it’s “not rocket science.”

Image Source: Washington Post

It’s now the consensus that scientists can even determine precisely how much Arctic sea ice women and men are melting by operating our air conditioners and driving our cars to and from work each day.

Just two months of women and men using basic electricity in our homes and/or about two months of driving (2,500 miles) a car directly causes 30 square feet of Arctic sea ice lost.

Image Source: Climate Central

Today we can acknowledge it was grossly sexist to maintain the position it’s just women who cause severe weather and climate changes. We now know men do it too. So do children.

It’s so gratifying to realize we live in the Age of Enlightenment with regard to our views on weather and climate change attribution.

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Scientific American Denies Steve Koonin Chance To Respond To Attack Article By Oreskes et al.

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Steve Koonin responds to recent attack articles by alarmist global-warming researchers.

Steve Koonin, former scientist advisor to President Barack Obama, was recently attacked in Scientific American for speaking out his skepticim over manmade global warming. He asked SA for the chance to respond, but SA refused, though a response is customary in science. Photo: US Dept. of Energy. 

So Steve Koonin has asked climate realist outlets, such as NTZ, to publish his response after Scientific American refused to do so:

=================================

Koonin responds to a Scientific American article by Oreskes et al.

Scientific American has published a criticism of me and my recent book, Unsettled. Most of that article’s 1,000 words are scurrilous ad hominem and guilt-by-association aspersions from the twelve co-authors. Only three scientific criticisms are buried within their spluttering; here is my response to each them.

The first criticism concerns rising temperatures:

A recent Washington Post column by conservative contributor Marc Thiessen repeats several points Koonin makes. The first is citing the 2017 National Climate Assessment to downplay rising temperatures—but the report’s very first key finding on the topic says temperatures have risen, rapidly since 1979, and are the warmest in 1,500 years.

In fact, Unsettled explicitly acknowledges a warming globe, but also the problems in comparing instrumental and proxy temperatures that weaken confidence in the “warmest in 1,500 years”. The book’s Chapter 5 criticizes in detail the 2017 report’s misleading and inaccurate representation of a different temperature metric, US extreme temperatures. To the surprise of many, the country’s warmest temperatures have not increased since 1960 and are no higher in recent years than they were in 1900.

The authors go on to offer:

The second is Thiessen quoting Koonin’s use of an outdated 2014 assessment on hurricanes to downplay climate concerns. But the newer 2017 report finds that human activity has “contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s.”

In fact, Unsettled’s Chapter 6 discusses the description of hurricanes in the 2014 report, in the 2017 report, and in more recent research papers through 2020, including an authoritative 2019 assessment by eleven hurricane experts. None of those studies claim any detectable human influences on hurricanes.

Finally, we’re given:

A third point downplays sea level rise by portraying it as steady over time, cherry-picking reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In fact, the rate of sea-level rise has quadrupled since
the industrial revolution, as climate scientists pointed out years ago when Koonin made this same argument.

In no sense does Unsettled portray sea level rise as “steady over time”. Rather, the book’s Chapter 8 does quite the opposite, describing the full decadal variability as portrayed in the IPCC reports and subsequent research literature, but somehow omitted in the 2017 National Climate Assessment. The IPCC statement that rates of rise between 1920 and 1950 were likely similar to those of recent decades complicates attribution of recent trends.

It is telling that these three criticisms cite Thiessen’s column rather than what I’ve written in Unsettled. That they are readily countered suggests the authors haven’t read the book or, if they have, they aren’t acting in good faith. That’s precisely the same unprofessional behavior found in the easily rebutted “fact check” of, again, a review of Unsettled, not the book itself.

To paraphrase a statement attributed to Einstein, “If I were wrong, it wouldn’t take a dozen scientists to disprove me – one would be sufficient.” As I write in Unsettled, I welcome serious, informed discussion of any of the points I raise in the book. Unfortunately, the article by Oreskes et al. falls well short of that standard.

=================================

As they say in German, Je mehr Feinde, desto mehr Ehre (The more the enemies, the more the honor).




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Geologist’s New Book: Climate Change “Natural”… “Still An Archaic Fear Of Natural Weather Phenomena”

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New book by geology researcher says climate change is natural, little to do with CO2. Available at Amazon.

The following discussion of climate change is based on the current emotional, irrational ideological and scientifically closed discussion and reporting, as well as the continuous mixing with topics of environmental protection. The causes of the constant climate change are very complex and cannot be explained with only one parameter, like the carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) in the atmosphere.

Rising since last ice age

The temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere have been steadily increasing since the end of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago, albeit with interruptions, associated with a rise in global sea level. If the current warming reached the level of the last Eemian warm period about 120,000 years ago, sea levels would also rise another 6-9 meters. In response to steadily rising sea levels, dike and dam construction has been forced in the Netherlands, for example, since the High Middle Ages. This will also have to be stepped up in other regions of the world.

Prehistoric fear

Even our prehistoric ancestors were impressed and frightened by weather phenomena such as lightning, thunder, hail and freezing cold, which were inexplicable to them at the time and usually threatened their lives. This mood probably also gave rise to early religions during the Paleolithic period with the belief in “higher” powers, such as a god of thunder, who was worshipped as the god Th or until the time of the northern European Germanic peoples, and who is still remembered today in our day of the week “Thursday”. According to tradition, the thunder god Th or drove across the sky in his thundering chariot drawn by goats and hurled lightning bolts at the earth with his hammer (POHANKA 2018).

“…still an archaic fear…”

Even after more than 300 years of spiritual enlightenment in Europe, there is apparently still an archaic fear of natural weather phenomena in our “inner Neanderthal.” This overview is not intended to and cannot replace the available scientific work, but rather aims to stimulate a more intensive and critical examination of the multifaceted topic of climate change. The developments of solar radiation, plant growth, temperature, etc. shown in the following graphs are based on interdisciplinary scientific investigations of trace elements, isotopes, pollen, microfossils and many more in ice cores, in marine and lake sediments and in tree rings, to name only the most essential sample types.

Since it is not possible to directly determine the temperature and solar radiation of the past, science makes use of so-called “representatives”, called “proxies” in English. Proxies for these climate-relevant parameters include the concentrations of the isotopes 14C, 10Be (for solar radiation) and 18O (for temperature development) in soils, sediments, ice cores, organisms, etc. Archaeological findings, e.g. from Roman times, show that the sea level rose more or less continuously already in “pre-industrial” times (before 1850). All these extremely exciting detailed information and individual results, as well as detailed explanations of the most different methods of analysis, are available in detail in the publications cited below. Particularly noteworthy here are the works of SIROCKO (2012), the BGR (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, 2004) and VAHRENHOLT & LÜNING (2020).

In the course of the present compilation, new highly interesting facts were found again and again, almost like in a detective story, which made the present work and the bibliography much more comprehensive than planned after all. With my remarks I do not want to convince, but to stimulate a critical examination of the current “main stream”, according to the remarks of the Spanish philosopher José Ortega y Gasset (1883-1955) on the subject of the “essay”: “… in which the teachings – even if they are scientific conviction for the author – do not demand that the reader take them in as truths. I bring here only “modi res considerandi,” possible new ways of looking at things. I call upon the reader to try out these new views to see if they are really fruitful views. Thus the reader makes the judgment for himself alone and on the basis of his experience whether they are true or false.”

About the author: Dr. rer nat. Dipl. Geol. Stefan Uhlig studied geosciences at the Technical University in Karlsruhe with a specialization in applied geology and geochemistry. Afterwards he worked in mining in Spain and in geoscientific projects in Mexico and southern Africa, as well as in deep drilling projects on land and at sea. The field work for his dissertation on stratiform copper mineralization was realized in Namibia, where he cooperated with the local Geological Survey. Later, he worked in the field of X-ray analysis, which took him to Latin America and again to southern Africa, among other places. He now makes his geoscientific findings and experiences available to a wider readership.

Hat-tip Die kalte Sonne.




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Germany’s DWD: May 2021 Among Coldest In 140 Years… Spring 2021 “Clearly Too Cool”

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May, 2021, in Germany comes in as one of the coldest in years.

Also spring, 2021, comes in cooler than normal. Spring in Germany hasn’t warmed at all over the past 30 years

The preliminary results for the meteorological spring (March-May) and the month of May have come in for Germany.

Germany’s May 2021 temperature anomaly (yet to be entered on chart) was 1.4°C below the 1961-1990 reference period mean, making it among the coldest on record. Source: DWD. 

Let’s first look at May 2021

Much cooler, wetter and cloudy than normal

According to Germany’s DWD national weather service, using data recorded from some 2000 stations across the country, May’s mean temperature came in at 10.7°C, some 2.4°C cooler than the 1991-2020 mean.

2.4°C colder than mean

Strangely, the DWD compares the May result to the ancient 1961-1990 reference period. By doing so, they determined that the mean May temperature was only 1.4°C too cool. Compared to the current and warmer reference period 1991 to 2020, the deviation was -2.4 degrees.

In the past 30 years, the May mean temperature was lower only in 2010 with 10.4 °C and in 1991 with 9.5 °C. May 2021 was among the coldest on the DWD records. Check it out yourself.

Drenched May

With 95 l/m² of precipitation, May clearly exceeded the 1991-2020 climate mean value of 70 l/m². The mean for the 1961-1990 period was 71 l/m², which tells us things have not changed at all, precipitation-wise in May.

23% less sunshine

May-2021 also saw very little sunshine across Central Europe. With about 165 hours of sunshine in May, it was well below the mean of 202 hours using the period 1961 to 1990. Compared to the new 1991 to 2020 reference period, the negative deviation was about 23 percent less sunshine.

Spring 2021 “clearly too cool”

Looking at the meteorological spring March 1st to May 31st) for Germany, the DWD reports that “spring 2021 was clearly too cool”, despite slightly above average sunshine. Spring hasn’t really warmed in 30 years – a fact that the DWD never brings up.

At 7.2°C, the average temperature in spring 2021 was -1.7°C below the value of the 1991 to 2020 reference period. The decisive factors for the negative deviation were the coldest April in 40 years and the very cool May. The lowest temperature was recorded on April 6 in Meßstetten in the Swabian Alb region with -13.6 °C.

Near normal precipitation

In terms of precipitation in spring 2021, Germany received 175 l/m² precipitation compared with the mean of 171 l/m² for the 1991 to 2020 reference period. While March and April came in too dry, May saw unusually high precipitation compared to the previous years.

Of course, the activist DWD again highlighted the ancient, wetter 1961-1990 reference period, because this allowed them to say spring came in drier than normal for the eighth consecutive year!

Slightly less spring sunshine than average

With about 500 hours, the sunshine duration in spring-2021 was 4% less than the 1991 to 2020 mean. But using the ancient 1961-1990 reference period, spring 2021 was 7% sunnier than “normal”.

In Germany, when reporting on weather averages, the DWD chooses its reference periods based on what trends it wants to convey to the public. Using the 1961-1990 period allows the DWD to make it look like its getting warmer and drier.




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New Study: Burden Of Proof Is On AGW Proponents As Ice Cores ‘Invalidate’ CO2-Driven Climate Change

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A French physicist recounts the evidence affirming temperature changes are the cause of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the last 423 thousand years of the ice core record, thus invalidating the claims of more than a negligible role for CO2 in affecting climate changes.

In a new study  Dr. Pascal Richet re-emphasizes the “most fundamental tenet of science, the principle of non-contradiction” in reviewing the extensive ice core evidence showing CO2 changes lag behind temperature changes by as much as 7,000 years – the “opposite conclusion” of “a driving role [for] CO2 assigned by climate models”.

This fundamental failure of cause-effect experimental evidence “invalidates” claims CO2 is a key climate forcing agent. Therefore, as Dr. Richet urges, “one should then reject the Arrhenian paradigm” because a “cardinal rule in science is to reject a hypothesis that clearly contradicts the experimental findings it is supposed to account for”.

The ice core evidence showing “the fact that temperature decreases do not depend in any noticeable way on CO2 concentration in all [warming and cooling] cycles” consequently “shifts the burden of proof of any CO2 influence on temperature to the proponents” of the CO2-drives-climate paradigm.

“As simply based on fundamental logic and on the concept of cause and effect, an epistemological examination of the geochemical analysis performed on the Vostok ice cores invalidates the marked greenhouse effect on past climate usually assigned to CO2.”

“[T]he greenhouse effect of CO2 on…today’s climate remains to be documented,” and, for CH4, “a causal correlation is actually nonexistent”.

“[S]ignificant contributions of CO2 and CH4 to temperature changes at the Earth’s surface remain unsubstantiated by direct, independent evidence.”

“[C]urrent models suffer from the circular nature of the reasoning” even in their assumed feedback role for CO2, which is similar to reductio ad absurdum argumentation.

Image Source: Richet, 2021
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“Likelihood Of A Sub-Cooled Summer For Europe In 2021”, Hale Solar Cycle Suggests

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Significant influence of solar activity on winter temperature in Scandinavian polar night

So far, much of Europe has seen a cold and wet 2021. It may be related to solar cycles. 

An essay at Die kalte Sonne by Dr. Ludger Laurenz looks at the relationship between solar activity and weather trends, and believes this summer’s temperature will be 1.5°C lower.

There are many scientific opinions about solar activity’s impact on weather and climate, which differ and contradict each other. For example, a new publication by Leamon et al. provides an important building block for uncovering solar influence. Background here.

Solar influence in historical climate data substantiated

In the Leamon et al publication, the authors looked at the 22-year Hale solar cycles and saw it is possible to detect and substantiate solar influence in historical climate data (from tropical ocean surface temperature to temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data) and to make quantitative statements about the influence of solar activity on weather data.

Norway winter temperature and sun: “high statistical significance”

“Using the alternating years between Hale cycles, a correlation between the 22-year Hale cycle of the Sun and the trend of winter temperature in the polar night of Norway can be demonstrated with high statistical significance,” Dr Laurenz adds.

“Parallel to the temperature trend, the solar influence of the Hale cycles is also evident in the index values of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations,” says Laurenz  in addition. “Evidence of the influence of solar activity in the polar night of Scandinavia demonstrates that differences in solar activity are transmitted to the near-surface temperature via amplification mechanisms such as change in circulation patterns in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations.”

The sun’s role in weather patterns is a great significance, and so CO2 is not the main driver at all.

Cool summer 2021 for Central Europe?

Laurenz also says that with the help of the 22-year Hale cycles, “it can be demonstrated that the current spring cold in Central and Western Europe is influenced by solar activity” and that for the summer of 2021,” a rather cool temperature can also be expected because the summer temperature in the last 6 Hale cycles since 1900, especially in cycle year 11, which includes 2021, is by law about 1.5 °C lower than in the cycle years before.”

“The prospects for the summer 2021 in Germany are rather subcooled from the point of view of the solar activity,” Laurenz writes in his essay. “In the last 6 Hale cycles since 1900, not only April was subcooled in year 11 of the Hale cycle, which also includes 2021, but also the summer, see Fig. 9”:

Figure 9: Summer temperature trend in Germany during the last six 22-year Hale cycles since 1903. Image source: Laurenz.

Laurenz also look at Central England:

The temperature trend this summer will be very exciting. Will the summer temperature drop by only 1.5 °C in sync with the mean, or will the temperature plummet by 4°C, as in Figure 8 for the April temperature in Central England?”

Figure 8: Last six 22-year Hale cycles plotted showing April mean temperature as a function of the Hale cycle year. They suggest a cool summer for England in 2021.Image source: Laurenz.

Laurenz adds further:

Statistically significant correlations between solar activity and temperature have been demonstrated in this paper. In a follow-up article, the relationship between solar activity and sunshine duration and precipitation activity in Germany will be uncovered, and it will be hypothesized that the occurrence of drought correlates with solar activity, as it has over the past three years.”

Sources: 

  1. Robert J. Leamon et al. (Feb. 2021) Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability,  doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001223
  2. Ronan Connolly et al. (June 2021): How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics
  3. Laurenz L, Lüdecke H-J and Lüning S (2019), Influence of solar   activity   changes   on   European   rainfall,  Journal   of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 185 29–42,  doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012
  4. Laurenz L, (2021): kaltesonne.de/hypothese-einfluss-der-sonnenaktivitaet-auf-den-regen-in-deutschland-viel-groesser-als-bisher-gedacht/#more-63293



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Grand Theft: Greenpeace Activists “Steal” Keys From 1000 New ICE Cars Awaiting Shipment In Port

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200,000 euros damage? 

For some, like Greenpeace activists, VW is moving much too slowly stopping the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. And so they think they are justified trespassing and removing the keys of cars waiting to be loaded for export. 

Greenpeace activists overcame a fence using ladders and removed the keys from 1000 new cars waiting to be loaded onto a vessel for export at a port in Emden, Germany. Image: Greenpeace.

According to the police in northern city of Leer, some 40 activists used ladders to make their way into the fenced-in premises of a port terminal in Emden and, according to the activists themselves, they withdrew more than 1,000 car keys from new cars awaiting to be loaded on a cargo vessel for export.

“Today we are taking hundreds of combustion engines out of circulation for the time being,” a spokesperson for Greenpeace told the NDR public broadcasting.

Trespassing, “serious theft”

According to Greenpeace, all the cars that are exported from the port city of Emden within a year have an ecological footprint that is equal to that all of Switzerland.

The activists are now being investigated by the police for trespassing and particularly serious theft.

Greenpeace has also called on the VW Group to stop the worldwide sale of internal combustion engine cars by 2025. In 2020, VW sold 9.1 million cars, most of them with internal combustion engines.

Flagship German media cheering on lawbreakers?

Germany’s mainstream media reported on the Greenpeace activists and their law-breaking as if they were heroes.

In a tweet, North German pubic broadcaster NDR Lower Saxony described the Greenpeace action as “shrewd”. (Image: screenshot Twitter)

Above the law?

German climate and energy site Die kalte Sonne here comments on the media reaction:

Although NDR subsequently took back the word ‘shrewd’ in another message, the message itself was left standing. With further thought, was it a shrewd action by Palestinians to launch thousands rockets on Israel and Or shrewd of Belarus president to hijack a plane? Or was it cunning, shrewd, sympathetic?

What would the legendary journalist Hans-Joachim Friedrichs have said about the Greenpeace action and the coverage by NDR? He would have said that a good journalist never gets involved with a cause, not even a supposedly good one. Whether theft is a good thing remains to be seen. Hopefully, the activists did not assume that VW would now no longer export the vehicles.

The action is likely to be responsible for a loss of almost 200,000 euros because Greenpeace “disposed” of the stolen keys. Whether Volkswagen will recover these costs from Greenpeace? The matter is not over yet either. Greenpeace proudly displays the stolen keys on the Internet. Is the NGO actually above the law?”




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“Major Scientific Breakthrough”…Scientists “Step Closer To Predicting North Atlantic Climate”

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A team of scientists believe they’ve made a forecasting breakthrough, suggesting the NAO is in fact highly predictable.

Especially Europe’s winter temperatures are modulated by the North Atlantic atmospheric pressure pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

As the name implies, it describes the natural fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. These fluctuations control the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic, and thus much of Europe’s weather. It has nothing to do with CO2.

Promise of greater skill at seasonal forecasts

Having the ability to predict these fluctuations months ahead naturally would be a very useful tool for agriculture, commerce and overall preparedness.

Now German Die kalte Sonne reports in their 40th video how researchers have made “a breakthrough” forecasting the NAO. In a recent paper appearing in the journal Nature titled: “North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply“, by Smith et al.

Breakthrough: NAO highly predictable

The large team of researchers assessed climate model predictions of the past six decades and showed that “decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are in fact highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs.”

The authors say that current models underestimate the predictable signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation by one full order of magnitude.

Image: Smith et al, Nature.

Now the scientists hope “to deliver robust NAO forecasts in the future,” reports Die kalte Sonne. There’s no mention of any connection to trace gas CO2.

In September 2020, a paper by Lüdecke et al studied the correlation of AMO, NAO and sunspots with European temperatures for the period 1901–2015 and found a strong link between the NAO and central/northern Europe December-March temperatures.

In April 2021, another paper by Luedecke et al, “Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall“, showed how Africa climate variability was linked to natural oceanic and solar cycles.




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What’s The Point? In 2020 China Built The Equivalent Of More Than One New Large Coal Plant Per Week

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There has been a sustained global-scale effort to reduce coal power capacity in recent years. Meanwhile, China’s government has been busy loosening restrictions on coal plant construction to power its post-pandemic economy. In 2020, China built over three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined – with no signs of letting up in years to come.

While the rest of the world combined to commission just 11.9 gigawatts (GW) of new coal plants in 2020, China alone commissioned 38.4 GW of new coal-fired power capacity (Global Energy Monitor, 2021).

Over 73 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power projects were initiated in China last year. This is five times as much as in all other countries combined.

China’s central government appears to be focusing on growing its economy as fast as possible, wholly disregarding the admonishments of climate activists insisting CO2 emissions must be dramatically reduced to forestall an allegedly looming climate catastrophe.

Image Source: Global Energy Monitor (2021)

Despite an exponential expansion in the wind and solar power capacity since 1990, the global share of the total primary energy supply (TPES) from wind and solar “is still only about 1.8%” (Boretti, 2021).

And this percentage is “not going to improve that much” in the coming decades because of the intermittent and unreliable energy supply (the wind must be blowing and the Sun must be shining) and deficiencies/high costs of renewable energy storage.

Image Source: Boretti, 2021

What is the point of decommissioning coal for the sake of “climate change mitigation” in places like Europe and the United States if the government of China has decided growing its economy is more important than reducing global net CO2 emissions?

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