Indications Point To Upcoming Solar Cycle 25 Being Among The Weakest In 200 Years

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The Sun In February 2019

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The sun was also very sub-normally active in February. Although we are in the middle of the minimum, the sunspot number of 0.8 for the 123rd month into the cycle is very low. On 26 days of the month no spots were visible, only on 2 days was there a little, symmetrically distributed over both solar hemispheres.The only exciting question currently: When will the minimum be finished and will solar cycle 25 begin? Although 6 spots of the new cycle were already visible in February with a significantly higher resolution, estimates are difficult.March again was dominated by some spots of the “old” SC24.  The rule: “weaker cycles often last longer than stronger cycles” could hold.

Fig. 1:

The monthly resolved spot activity of the Sun over the solar cycle (SC) 24 at the beginning of December 2008 (red) compared to a mean cycle, calculated from the arithmetic mean of all previously systematically observed cycles 1-23 (blue) and the not dissimilar cycle 5 at the beginning of May 1798.

The long solar minimum since October 2017 (cycle month 107) can be seen very well, the mean SSN in this period was only 7.1. The comparison of the cycles among each other follows:

Fig. 2:

The strength of the sunspot activity of each cycle in comparison. The numbers in the diagram are obtained by adding up the monthly deviations between the observed values and the mean value (blue in Fig.1) up to the current 123rd cycle month.

Figure 2 shows that five cycles (No. 8, 15, 16, 18, 22) did not have a month 123 at all. Instead the following cycle started. In this respect, the picture is now somewhat distorted towards the end of the cycle.

A look at the solar polar fields shows that the minimum may have passed the peak, both smoothed hemispheric values decrease.  The maximum strength of the smoothed average is currently 64, in the last minimum we saw 55, in the minimum before SC 23 the value was 104.

There is a lot that points to a SC25 that will be slightly stronger than SC24, but will remain below the zero line (standing in Fig.2 for an average cycle). Thus the sun therefore likely to remain on low flame for another 12 years. The operators of satellites and the ISS will be pleased, the upper atmosphere expands less with less solar activity and this saves orbital manoeuvres to maintain the height of the objects.

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Scientists: The CO2 Greenhouse Effect Was Cancelled Out By Clouds During 1992-2014

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The Greenhouse Effect On Hiatus

An unheralded but significant 2016 scientific paper – “A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect” – is now publicly available.

Scientists have found the greenhouse effect’s (GHE) influence on planetary temperatures went on “hiatus” during 1992-2014.

The estimated GHE radiative influence for these 22 years was a slightly negative -0.04 Wm-2 per year.

The reason why the GHE influence went on hiatus in recent decades is that (a) decadal-scale changes in cloud cover exert dominant radiative control in longwave forcing (GHE) efficacy, and (b) the shortwave effects of cloud cover changes override the radiative longwave effects, meaning that a decrease in cloud cover will allow more direct shortwave radiation to be absorbed by the Earth system, eliciting a net positive imbalance in the energy budget.

Image Source(s): Wielicki et al., 2002, Ramanathan et al., 1989, Longman et al., 2014

As a consequence, a decadal-scale reduction in cloud cover, which has been observed via satellite since the 1990s, effectively “offsets” or cancels out the GHE influence from gases such as water vapor and CO2.

“Overall, the downward tendency of clouds is the dominant contributor to the greenhouse effect hiatus.” (Song et al., 2016)

The implications for this analysis are profound.

During 1992-2014, the global CO2 concentration rose from 356 ppm to 398 ppm, an increase of 42 ppm.

If this level of CO2 enhancement within the GHE can be so easily “offset” by a decadal-scale decrease in cloud cover, then the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 concentration changes should be regarded as significantly less influential than climate models currently profess.

Indeed, if the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 is so expungeable that a small change in cloud cover can effectively wipe out the potential influence of over 100 gigatons of CO2 emissions, then modern efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions by transitioning to solar and wind power may therefore be not only ineffectual, but rather pointless.


Image Source: Song et al., 2016

Image Source: Khilyuk and Chilingar, 2006
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Again Reality Goes In Opposite Direction Of Climate Models…”Confidence In Models Correspondingly Low”

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Yesterday we posted on how rainfall across southern Europe has risen over the past couple of decades, thus going in the opposite direction of what was projected by climate models. And once again the models are shown to be woefully faulty and an unreliable tool for policymaking, as the following example shows.
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Southern Africa vegetation expanding, images show. Source: here.

Real vegetation development in southern Africa takes a very different course than claimed by climate models

By Die kalte Sonne
(German translated by P Gosselin)

Climate models provide answers to all conceivable questions about the future. Political decision-makers are grateful for this information because they can make their plans accordingly.

But are the forecasts derived from models correct at all?

A research team led by Timm Hoffman has now compared the model projections with real vegetation development in southern Africa using historical photos. The sobering result: Nature has mostly developed quite differently than assumed by the models. In contrast to the model assumptions, no significant long-term trend in precipitation could be observed. Vegetation belts, which were supposed to shrink, ended up expanding. Confidence in the models is correspondingly low.

Political planning or even CO2 damage calculations based on the simulations are not possible. Here is the abstract of the work published in the journal Anthropocene in March 2019:

Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa
Most projections of climate change for southern Africa describe a hotter and drier future with catastrophic consequences for the environment and socio-ecological sustainability of the region. This study investigated whether evidence of the projections for the climate and vegetation of the subcontinent is already evident. Analysis of the climate record indicate that the historical trend of increasing temperature is consistent with future projections for the region. Rainfall, however, apparently has not changed significantly. Results from analysis of 1321 repeat historical photographs indicate broad trends in vegetation trajectories in the major biomes of southern Africa. The Savanna biome has experienced a rapid increase in woody plant at rates un-anticipated by the models. Contrary to early projections for the Succulent Karoo biome, biomass and cover have increased, largely in response to changes in land-use practices. Cover in the fire-adapted Fynbos biome has remained stable or increased over time with unanticipated expansion of forest species, particularly in localities protected from fire for long periods. The shrub-dominated Nama-karoo biome has increased in grass cover. Rather than contracting, as suggested in the early models, the Grassland biome has apparently expanded westwards into former Nama-karoo biome sites. The Savanna biome has experienced a rapid increase in woody plants at rates not anticipated by the models. The broad trends in historical trajectories illustrate how land-use management has influenced vegetation change in the past. They also provide a useful context for evaluating future changes and developing mitigation strategies for some of the worst impacts of climate change in the future.”

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Year 2000 Predictions By ‘The Guardian’ Turn Out To Be Complete Failures…Southern Europe Has Become Wetter!

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

In December 2000, environment correspondent Paul Brown wrote here at The Guardian that global warming threatened “to create a dust belt around the globe” and that the Sahara had “crossed the Mediterranean” and forced “thousands to migrate as a lethal combination of soil degradation and climate change” turned “parts of southern Europe into desert.”

He added: “A fifth of Spanish land is so degraded […] and in Italy tracts of land in the south are now abandoned and technically desert. Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece are the four EU countries already so badly affected that they have joined the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD) which is meeting in Bonn this week.”

Failed predictions

Brown also wrote that the spreading desertification was not confined to the EU, but that also Bulgaria, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Russia have all reported signs of desertification and that it was spreading beyond the Black Sea and stretching as far as Mongolia. China!

Just the opposite is occurring

So since this 2000 claim made in The Guardian and the many other alarmist desertification claims coming due to climate change, we ask whether or not things have gotten worse since like they were supposed to. A brief look at precipitation data across southern Europe shows us that the opposite is more the case.

Precipitation has increased, and not decreased, and so greening is favored more than before.

Spain

What follows are the precipitation charts for some southern European countries, which are located north of Africa’s massive Sahara Desert. First we begin with Spain:

Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Examined are two stations in Spain with sufficiently available precipitation data. Both La Coruna and Valladolid stations show more precipitation since 1983, thus contradicting predictions of less. But the trend has not impressed the alarmists at The Guardian, who in 2016 wrote:

Southern Spain will be reduced to desert by the end of the century if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, researchers have warned.”

France

Next we look at France. Using data available from 13 stations across France from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), here as well we find no downward trend that would aid increased desertification:

Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

France also has five stations that go back further, i.e. to 1983:

Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Here as well we see a rising precipitation trend, and not one that suggests precipitation is falling and so things are going to get drier.

Italy

Now we move to the southern European country of Italy, where the data from 7 stations are examined:

Modestly rising trend in Italy. Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Greece

Finally we look at the best datasets from Greece, where 6 stations are plotted:

Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

As is the case in the other southern European countries, Greece has not seen a downward trend in precipitation, rather the trend has increased noticeably.

Of course there are other factors that effect desertification, such as agriculture. However, the rainfall data over the current century shows that precipitation is rising and hampering the expansion of deserts into Europe. Contrast that to what the Guardian claimed in 2016:

Temperatures would rise nearly 5C globally under the worst case scenario by 2100, causing deserts to expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and Mediterranean vegetation to replace deciduous forests.”

Clearly this is fake science that ranks on the scale of the Russia collusion hoax.

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Satellite Evidence Affirms Solar Activity Drove ‘A Significant Percentage’ Of Recent Warming

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In a new paper, two astrophysicists shred the IPCC-preferred and model-based PMOD solar data set and affirm the ACRIM, which is rooted in observation and shows an increase in total solar irradiance (TSI) during the 1980-2000 period. They suggest a “significant percentage” of recent climate change has been solar-driven.

Scafetta and Willson, 2019

I. The PMOD is based on proxy modeled predictions, “questionable” modifications, and degraded, “misinterpreted” and “erroneously corrected” results 

• “The PMOD rationale for using models to alter the Nimbus7/ERB data was to compensate for the sparsity of the ERBS/ERBE data and conform their gap results more closely to the proxy predictions of solar emission line models of TSI behavior.”
• “PMOD’s modifications of the published ACRIM and ERB TSI records are questionable because they are based on conforming satellite observational data to proxy model predictions.”
• “The PMOD trend during 1986 to 1996 is biased downward by scaling ERB results to the rapidly degrading ERBE results during the ACRIM-Gap using the questionable justification of agreement with some TSI proxy predictions first proposed by Lee III et al.(1995).”
• PMOD misinterpreted and erroneously corrected ERB results for an instrument power down event.”
• “PMOD used overlapping comparisons of ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 with ERBE observations and proxy models to construct their first composite. Other PMOD composites [17, 18] used different models of the ERBE-ACRIM-Gap degradation. The result of these various modifications during the ACRIM-Gap was that PMOD introduced a downward trend in the Nimbus7/ERB TSI data that decreased results by 0.8 to 0.9 W/m2 (cf. [18, 20]).”

II. The PMOD TSI composite “flawed” results were an “unwarranted manipulation” of data intended to support AGW, but are  “contraindicated”

• “The dangers of utilizing ex-post-facto corrections by those who did not participate in the original science teams of satellite experiments are that erroneous interpretations of the data can occur because of a lack of detailed knowledge of the experiment and unwarranted manipulation of the data can be made based on a desire to support a particular solar model or some other nonempirical bias. We contend that the PMOD TSI composite construction is compromised in both these ways.”
 “[O]ur scientific knowledge could be improved by excluding the more flawed record from the composite. This was the logic applied by the ACRIM team. In point of fact PMOD failed to do this, instead selecting the ERBE results that were known to be degraded and sparse, because that made the solar cycle 21–22 trend agrees with TSI proxy models and the CAGW explanation of CO2 as the driver of the global warming trend of the late 20th century.”
• “The use of unverified modified data has fundamentally flawed the PMOD TSI satellite composite construction.”
• “The consistent downward trending of the PMOD TSI composite is negatively correlated with the global mean temperature anomaly during 1980–2000. This has been viewed with favor by those supporting the COanthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis since it would minimize TSI variation as a competitive climate change driver to CO2, the featured driver of the hypothesis during the period (cf.: [IPCC, 2013, Lockwood and Fröhlich, 2008]).”
• “Our summary conclusion is that the objective evidence produced by all of the independent TSI composites [3,5, 6, 9] agrees better with the cycle-by-cycle trending of the original ACRIM science team’s composite TSI that shows an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter. The continuously downward trending of the PMOD composite and TSI proxy models is contraindicated.”

III. The ACRIM TSI supports the conclusion that “a significant percentage” of climate change in recent decades was driven by TSI variation

Graph Source: Soon et al., 2015
• ACRIM shows a 0.46 W/m2 increase between 1986 and 1996 followed by a decrease of 0.30 W/m2 between 1996 and 2009. PMOD shows a continuous, increasing downward trend with a 1986 to 1996 decrease of 0.05 W/m2 followed by a decrease of 0.14 W/m2 between 1996 and 2009. The RMIB composite agrees qualitatively with the ACRIM trend by increasing between the 1986 and 1996 minima and decreasing slightly between 1996 and 2009.”
• “ACRIM composite trending is well correlated with the record of global mean temperature anomaly over the entire range of satellite observations (1980–2018) [Scafetta. 2009]. The climate warming hiatus observed since 2000 is inconsistent with CO2 anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) climate models [Scafetta, 2013, Scafetta, 2017]. This points to a significant percentage of the observed 1980–2000 warming being driven by TSI variation [Scafetta, 2009, Willson, 2014, Scafetta. 2009]. A number of other studies have pointed out that climate change and TSI variability are strongly correlated throughout the Holocene including the recent decades (e.g., Scafetta, 2009,  Scafetta and Willson, 2014, Scafetta, 2013Kerr, 2001, Bond et al., 2001, Kirkby, 2007, Shaviv, 2008, Shapiro et al., 2011, Soon and Legates, 2013, Steinhilber et al., 2012, Soon et al., 2014).”
• “The global surface temperature of the Earth increased from 1970 to 2000 and remained nearly stable from 2000 and 2018. This pattern is not reproduced by CO2 AGW climate models but correlates with a TSI evolution with the trending characteristics of the ACRIM TSI composite as explained in Scafetta [6,12, 27] and Willson [7].”

IV. The Correlation:

Graph Source: Soon et al., 2015
Image Source: Smith, 2017

V. The Mechanism: Higher solar activity on decadal-scales limits the seeding of clouds, which means more solar radiation is absorbed by the surface, warming the Earth 

Image Source: Fleming, 2018

Image Source: Sciencedaily.com

VI. The radiative forcing from the increase in surface solar radiation: +4.25 Wm-2/decade between 1984-2000

Image Source: Goode and Palle, 2007

Image Source(s): Hofer et al., 2017 and Kay et al., 2008
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German News Weekly ‘Der Spiegel’ Caught Making Up Another Story, Claimed Bering Strait “Almost Ice Free”

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Schneefan at German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung here writes how renowned German news weekly DER SPIEGEL appears to have made up another story, this time involving a nonsensical climate alarm.

The embattled SPIEGEL this time selected a small area at the edge of the Arctic (Bering Sea/Bering Strait), which is usually not covered by more than half the ice anyway, and “drew completely absurd and inaccurate conclusions from it”.

Faked story about rural America

We will recall how not long ago SPIEGEL sent out award-winning journalist Claas Relotius to do a story about rural America, who in turn made up everything so that it would fit a grotesque caricature of conservative America that snobby euro elites harbor.

Latest: fake story about disappeared sea ice

Now it appears SPIEGEL has once ignored the real facts about the Arctic and instead made up a story to fit the alarmist global warming narrative. SPIEGEL wrote:

The Bering Strait is a narrow strait that separates Russia from Alaska. Normally it is covered with ice in spring – not so this spring, as images from the European Earth observation satellite “Sentinel 1” on 7 March show. The approximately 80 kilometres connecting the Pacific and Arctic Oceans are almost ice-free
Indeed the spread of sea ice has reached a new record low this March, according to ESA.”

Reality: Bering Strait “completely covered with sea ice”

Yet, a review of the March 7, 2019, date that is cited in the SPIEGEL article shows that the Bering Strait was in fact completely covered with sea ice:

On March 7, 2019, the Bering Strait was completely covered with sea ice that was between 0.5 and 1.5 m thick. The SPIEGEL falsehood of an “almost ice-free Bering Strait” at the beginning of March 2019 has been exposed. Source: DMI Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

The “almost ice-free Bering Strait” is once again an invention of a SPIEGEL editor. The ice was also there back in February, too:

The NSIDC chart above shows the average extent of the sea ice areas (white) in the Arctic in February 2019. The pink lines show the extent of the sea ice areas in the globally accepted WMO climate average 1981-2010 since 2015. The Arctic “Bering Sea” (top left) was covered with ice in February 2019 about half of the average area. The assertion in the SPIEGEL article “The approximately 80 kilometers connecting the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans are almost ice-free” is false, as the Bering Strait (strait between Russia and Alaska) is completely covered with ice. Source: NSIDC Sea Ice Index

And nothing has changed as of March, 2019, as a look at sea ice thickness shows:

As in February 2019, the chart above shows that the Bering Strait is completely covered with sea ice between 0.5 and 1.5 m thick on March 20, 2019.  SPIEGEL lie of an “almost ice-free” Bering Strait at the beginning of March, 2019, has been exposed. Source: DMI Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

When it comes to weather and climate, it is not the sea ice cover of a small marginal region that is of importance, but rather the entire sea ice area and the sea ice volume of the Arctic – and Antarctica – as a whole. The sea ice areas of the Arctic (extent) are currently at the highest level of the last five years:

Chart: NSIDC

The Arctic sea ice VOLUME, i.e. the mass of sea ice, is also larger than in recent years and remains within the multi-year average (grey area):

Source: DMI Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

Schneefan concludes: “That is the measured reality, everything else is FAKE-NEWS (‘…false reports spread with manipulative intent’).”

Entire original German article here.

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Spring Cooling: Hamburg’s Forsythia Blossoming Whopping 17 Days Later Than 30 Years Ago!

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Forsythia are an indicator plant used by the German DWD Weather Service for marking the beginning of spring in March. The trend of spring blossoming show that springs in Hamburg have been cooling over the past 30 years.

The north German port city of Hamburg happens to have a long data series on the the date the plant blossoms and so it has some use as a spring climate tracker for that perticular region.

An ever increasingly earlier blossoming of the plant is claimed to be evidence by alarmists of climatic warming, which would be again exclusively CO2’s doing.

It is often suggested that the forsythia only blossomed in May 40 years ago and now the date has since moved forward.

But Josef Kowatsch at the European Institute (EIKE) has looked into the matter and asked: Do the forsythia really bloom earlier? The answer is no.

Phenologist Iska Holtz recently reported that this year the reference forsythia bush located at the Hamburg Lombardsbrücke began to blossom on March 12th, which is 71 days after the beginning of the year.

The following chart shows the date of blossoming since 1987. The vertical axis shows the number of days after the beginning of the year that the shrub first blossomed. The greater the number, the later the shrub blossomed, and thus the colder the spring was:

Figure 1: The left vertical y-axis shows the calendar days since the beginning of the year. The more calendar days, the later the start of forsythia flowering. Back in 1988/89/90 the start of the flowering of the forsythia was in February! Chart: Josef Kowatsch.

Surprise! the linear trend shows that the forsythia are blossoming 17 days later than 30 years ago. This would indicate cooling, and not warming.

Hamburg’s springs have cooled considerably

The temperatures of February and March essentially determine the start of flowering of the Forsythia shrub in the city centre of Hamburg. Note also February/March 1996 was very cold and thus the late flowering.

First the chart which shows February mean temperature since 1987, the last 33 years:

Figure 2: Even without a drawn trend line, you would see it right away: February in Hamburg has gotten colder. February 2019 was mild in Hamburg, in contrast to last year (2018) when the beginning of flowering was delayed to April 4th. Chart: Josef Kowatsch

March has cooled as well

Even more than the month of February, March temperatures influence the forsythia flowering date at the Lombardsbrücke in Hamburg. And the first 12 days of March 2019 in Hamburg were very mild with an average of 6 to 7 degrees. This favored the relatively early start of flowering in 2019.

Overall, however, the month of March also has become somewhat colder in Hamburg.

Figure 3: March has also been getting somewhat colder in Hamburg for over 30 years. (2019 data not yet available). Chart: Josef Kowatsch

The temperatures of February and March essentially determine the beginning of the flowering season of the forsythia shrub in downtown Hamburg. Note also the very cold February/March of 1996 and the late flowering.

Next we look at the the blossom date going back to 1971:

Figure 4: Since 1971, the flowering date of forsythia in Hamburg has been steady. The mean is about 80 days after New Year. Despite an increase in CO2 – a fertilizer from the air and despite an increase in fertilizers in groundwater, all growth-promoting and flower-driving factors, spring in Hamburg has not been earlier over the past 47 years, and has even been delayed in the last 33 years. Chart: Josef Kowatsch

There’s been no trend over the past 5 decades. And if one accounts for the urban heat island effect, then we can only conclude some underlying cooling has taken place.

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Busted Hockey Sticks: 35 Non-Global Warming Papers Have Been Published In 2019

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Could a transition in paleoclimate reconstruction be underway? More and more, scientists aren’t hiding statements or graphical depictions of the lack of modern warming or the much-warmer Holocene past.

A compilation of 35 papers from across the globe indicate that modern climate is not unusual, remarkable or unprecedented, and that large regions of the Earth were as warm or warmer than now when CO2 concentrations were much lower (260 to 350 ppm).

This development continues apace with the trends from the last two years, when 253 non-hockey stick papers were published.


Tonno et al., 2019

“In North Europe, changes in early Holocene climate were rather intense, starting with low temperatures at the beginning of the period, followed by gradual warming, interrupted periodically by short cooling periods (Antonsson and Seppa¨ 2007). During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), the period from 8.0 to 4.0 cal ka BP, average temperatures in Northern Europe were approximately 2.5–3.5 C higher than today (Antonsson and Seppa¨ 2007; Heikkila¨ and Seppa¨ 2010; Ilvonen et al. 2016).”


Pitulko et al., 2019

“Our data show that from c. 10 600 BP, Zhokhov Island was situated on the margin of the shrinking Arctic coast (Anisimov et al. 2009); this is supported by the presence of a large quantity of driftwood that washed ashore at the Zhokhov site. The environmental situation was relatively favourable for human occupation: the climate was [5-6°C] warmer than today, and Zhokhov Island was covered by an Arctic tundra comprising sedge grass, shrubs and dwarf birch (Makeyev et al. 2003).”


Salvatteci et al., 2019

“[O]tolith δ18O data from Peruvian catfish (Galeichthys peruvianus) excavated from archeological sites in northern Peru suggest SST ~4 °C warmer than presentday SST (Andrus et al., 2002).”


Rohling et al., 2019


Røthe et al., 2019

“Our findings do not provide any confirmation that the glacier Sørfonna melted entirely away during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Bjune et al. (2005) suggest summer temperatures were 1.5–2 °C warmer than present during this period. Combined with the evidence from the glaciers Nordfonna and Hardangerjøkulen, it is, however, likely that the glacier Sørfonnawas also significantly smaller than at present during this period. … Since 1650 cal. a BP, we infer that the glacier was larger than the 2002 CE glacier extent until 1910 CE when a GLOF [glacier outburst flood] occurred. Svartenutbreen has been retreating since 1910 CE, which led to the ice damming of the two historical GLOFs [glacier outburst floods] in the 1980s and 2002 CE separated by a glacier advance in the 1990s CE.”


Liu et al., 2019

“The modern vegetation around Tianchi Crater Lake is categorized as temperate mixed conifer-broad-leaved forest … The area experiences a typical cold temperate monsoon climatic regime with long cold winters and short cool summers. The [modern] annual average air temperature is 0–0.5 °C … The PFT-MAT-based reconstructed Pann record for Tianchi Crater Lake has a similar trend of variation to that of the pollen percentage diagram. The ranges of Pann [annual precipitation] and Tann [annual mean temperature] are 268–881 mm and 1.7–10.5°C, respectively [for the Holocene]. …[V]ariations in Tann exhibit […] a marked rise from the beginning of the early Holocene and a peak at 9000–8000 cal yr BP.”


Steinman et al., 2019

The early Holocene d18O [hydroclimate] maximum in the Castor Lake record at 9630 (9110-10,100) yr BP is likely in part a result of higher summer insolation, which produced higher temperatures and greater evaporation during the warm season. Additionally, atmospheric circulation in the early Holocene was substantially different from the modern configuration (Bartlein et al., 2014), and precipitation amounts were likely lower, due to the presence of the residual Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets (Dyke, 2004), which affected air mass trajectories and the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation on a hemispheric scale. …  A chironomid based climate reconstruction from Windy Lake, south-central British Columbia, supports the assertion that greater summer insolation produced warmer summer temperatures at this time (Chase et al., 2008).”


Zhang et al., 2019

Studies of solar activity and cosmic radiation indicate that solar activity is the main factor driving climate change on decadal-to centennial scales (Stuiver and Braziunas, 1993; Xu et al., 2014; Yu and Ito, 1999; Zhao et al., 2010). In addition, solar activity is well correlated with global surface temperature (Bond et al., 2001; Usoskin et al., 2003). Changes in the production rates of two common cosmic radionuclides (∆14C and 10Be), which are preserved in ice cores and tree rings, suggest that periodic fluctuations in solar activity on decadal-to-centennial scales directly affect the cosmic ray flux (Abreu et al., 2013; Masarik and Beer, 1999; Steinhilber et al., 2012). Kirkby (2007) summarized evidence for a close relationship between temperature change and solar activity during the last millennium, finding that cosmic radiation flux was weak and solar activity was strong during the MWP; whereas, the opposite conditions occurred during the LIA. Therefore, the cosmic ray flux can be regarded as a proxy for solar activity and that it can be used to assess the relationship between climate change and solar activity. … Several notable cold periods, with lower Quercus frequencies, occurred at approximately 1200 AD, 1410 AD, 1580 AD, 1770 AD and 1870 AD. These centennial-scale cold periods basically correspond to major minima in solar activity, suggesting that variations in solar activity may have been an important driver of climate and vegetation change in the study area during the last millennium.”


Lozhkin et al., 2019

“Mixed Larix-Betula forest was established at the Tanon site by ∼6600 14C BP (7500 cal BP). This forest included Betula platyphylla, a species common in moderate zones of the Russian Far East (e.g., B. platyphylla-Larix forests of central Kamchatka). The importance of Betula in the Middle Holocene assemblage is unusual, as tree Betula is not a common element in the modern coastal forest. The abundance of B. platyphylla macrofossils particularly suggests warmer than present summers and an extended growing period. This inference is supported by a regional climate model that indicates a narrow coastal region where the growing season was longer and summer temperatures were 2-4 °C warmer than today. Variations in Betula pollen percentages at other sites in northern Priokhot’ye are suggestive that this Middle Holocene forest was widespread along the coast.”


Novenko et al., 2019

[D]uring the Holocene Thermal Maximum when the mean annual temperatures were 2°С higher than those of the present day [6,9,10,11]. Roughly 5.7–5.5 ka BP, the Holocene Thermal Maximum was followed by gradual climatic cooling that included several warming and cooling phases with temperature fluctuations ranging between 2 and 3°С. …The CFSNBR [Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve] is situated roughly 360 km northwest of Moscow (the Tver region, 56º35’ N, 32º55’ E) in an ecological zone transitioning from taiga to broadleaf forests. The vegetation of the CFSNBR is primary southern taiga forests, and it has been undisturbed by any human activities for at least 86 years. The climate of the study area is temperate and moderately continental with a mean annual temperature of 4.1°C and annual precipitation of roughly 700 mm.”


Rey et al., 2019

“Our results imply that mixed Fagus sylvatica forests with Abies alba and Quercus may re‐expand rapidly in these areas, if climate conditions will remain within the range of the midHolocene climatic variability (with summers c. +1–2°C warmer than today). … [T]he rise and fall of early farming societies was likely dependent on climate. Favourable climatic conditions (i.e. warm and dry summers) probably led to an increase in agricultural yields, the expansion of farming activities and resulting forest openings, whereas unfavourable climatic conditions (i.e. cold and wet summers) likely caused crop failures, abandonment of agricultural areas and forest succession. A better understanding of the environmental and societal factors controlling coeveal land-use dynamics as shown in this study would require new climate proxy data (e.g. temperature reconstruction from well dated and complete Holocene tree ring series). On the basis of our results and considering the ongoing spread of temperate forests in lowland Central Europe, we conclude that the existing beech forest ecosystems are resilient to anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate.”


Eda et al., 2019

“Recent taxonomic composition and faunal distribution patterns support recognition of three biogeographic regions in Asia, Palaearctic (north), Indomalayan (south), and a transition zone between the two (Hoffmann 2001). In the division, the Yangtze River delta is located at the boundary of the Indomalayan region and transition zone. Pollen records suggest that, middle Holocene temperatures were ca. 2–4 °C warmer than today in the middle Yangtze River delta (Yi et al. 2003). Peters et al. (2016) indicated that the middle Yangtze River basin would delimit the northern most boundary for required habitat of (sub-) tropical red junglefowl during the Holocene thermal optimum. Furthermore, Xiang et al. (2014) reported that the wild distribution area of red junglefowl extended to northern China in the early Holocene, and domestic chicken farming began in the region.”


Lee et al., 2019


Caballero et al., 2019

“Diatom-based transfer functions for salinity, precipitation and temperature were developed using a training set that included data from 40 sites along central Mexico. … Maximum last glacial cooling of ∼5°C is reconstructed, a relatively wet deglacial and a warmer (+3.5°C) early Holocene. … The early Holocene marked a change towards high lake salinities and the highest positive temperature anomalies (+3.5°C) during a peak in summer insolation.”

Collins et al., 2019

“Over the past 2300 yrs, SST values range between 14.3°C and 12.2°C (Fig. 4a), and hence most of the record is warmer than today. The earlier half of the record is relatively warm and stable and displays a gradual warming from 13.2°C at 2300 cal yrs BP to 14°C at 1200 cal yrs BP. The largest feature of the record is the cooling transition from 14°C to 12.5°C between 1100 and 600 cal yrs BP. This is followed by warming to 13.5°C at 300 cal yrs BP and then cooling to 12.5°C at present day. Multi-centennial variability is more clearly highlighted in the filtered record and is most pronounced over the last 1200 years. The record exhibits relatively warm conditions during the periods 1200 – 950 cal yrs BP and 500 – 200 cal yrs BP and relatively cool conditions during the periods 950 – 500 cal yrs BP and 200 – present. … Southern Ocean cooling is expected to have further enhanced sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean (Park and Latif, 2008; Zhang et al., 2017a). This is in accordance with two records displaying increased sea ice in the western Ross Sea at a similar timing (between 1250 and 650 cal yrs BP) to the cooling (Mezgec et al., 2017). Late Holocene sea-ice increases are also observed to the west of the Ross Sea (Denis et al., 2010), to the west of the West Antarctic Peninsula (Etourneau et al., 2013) and in the Eastern Ross Sea (Mayewski et al., 2013). Associated ice-albedo and ice-insulation feedbacks (Renssen et al., 2005; Varma et al., 2012) may have contributed to the rapidity of the cooling and sea-ice expansion. … Solar variability would be a potential driver of the changes in ENSO and SAM coupling. Increased (decreased) TSI has been shown to promote La-Niñalike (El-Niño-like) conditions by enhancement of the trade winds (Mann et al., 2005). Similarly, the SHW are sensitive to the 11yr solar cycle (Haigh et al., 2005) and solar variability on centennial timescales (Varma et al., 2011) and thus solar variability might be expected to exert an influence on the SAM. Therefore, it is plausible that solar variability may have controlled the phasing of ENSO and the SAM, and this remains an interesting avenue for further climate modeling research.”


Lohmann et al., 2019


Yuan et al., 2019

“During the early Holocene (10.0–6.0 ka), the modern-type circulation system was not established, which resulted in strong water column stratification; and the higher sea surface temperature (SST) might be associated with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The interval of 6.0 to 1.0/2.0 ka displayed a weaker stratification caused by the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) and the initiation of the circulation system. A decreasing SST trend was related to the formation of the cold eddy generated by the circulation system in the ECS. During 1.0/2.0 to 0 ka, temperatures were characterized by much weaker stratification and an abrupt decrease of SST caused by the enhanced circulation system and stronger cold eddy, respectively.”


Marret et al., 2019

“The studied region is the only coastal region in Russia to have subtropical landscapes as well as humid to semi-arid landscapes (Petrooshina, 2003). Winter temperatures average 3–5°C in winter up to 23–24°C in summer. … A possible maximum of warm conditions may have occurred between 3.0 and 2.5 cal. ka BP, as highlighted by the occurrence of O. israelianum. This species has not been seen in modern sediments from the Black Sea nor the Caspian Sea and mainly occurs in waters where winter SSTs are above 14.3°C and summer SSTs are more than 24.2° C … Establishment of present-day conditions may have happened within the last 1500 years, but the low-resolution sampling at the top of the core prevents us to exactly pinpoint this change. However, our dinocyst assemblage indicates cooler conditions [today] with the decrease of S. mirabilis.”


Ortega et al., 2019

“Highly variable SSTs in Tongoy Bay occurred during the last 2000 years (Figure 7c), and possibly earlier, in agreement with variable upwelling since ~3000 yr ago suggested by variable faunal assemblages (32°45’S) (Marchant et al, 1999). … Observed standardized annual precipitation and the 10-year running average at La Serena show a general decreasing trend (Figure 8a) reflecting the persistent aridification affecting the semi-arid coast of Chile. The linear trend over the whole observed period (1869–2016 CE) indicates that La Serena has had a 4% decrease in precipitation per decade, as previously documented by Schulz et al. (2011) and Quintana and Aceituno (2012). A similar calculation for CMIP5 simulations (1850-2005, historical simulations) indicates no significant trend over the 20th century. This difference between observations and simulations suggests that most of the observed trend is due to natural variability instead of a forced response to anthropogenic forcing.”


Gebbie and Huybers, 2019

The ongoing deep Pacific is cooling, which revises Earth’s overall heat budget since 1750 downward by 35%. … In the deep Pacific, we find basin-wide cooling ranging from 0.02° to 0.08°C at depths between 1600 and 2800 m that is also statistically significant. The basic pattern of Atlantic warming and deep-Pacific cooling diagnosed from the observations is consistent with our model results, although the observations indicate stronger cooling trends in the Pacific. …. At depths below 2000 m, the Atlantic warms at an average rate of 0.1°C over the past century, whereas the deep Pacific cools by 0.02°C over the past century. … These basin-wide average trends are used to relax the assumption of globally uniform changes in surface conditions and to constrain regional temperature histories for 14 distinct regions over the Common Era by a control theory method. The result, referred to as OPT-0015, fits the observed vertical structure of Pacific cooling and Atlantic warming. Global surface changes still explain the basic Atlantic-Pacific difference in OPT-0015, but greater Southern Ocean cooling between 600 and 1600 CE leads to greater rates of cooling in the deep Pacific over recent centuries.”

 

Image Source: Supplemental Data (Gebbie and Huybers, 2019)

Lasher and Axford, 2019

More positive δ18O values are found between 900 and 1400 CE, indicating a period of warmth in South Greenland superimposed on late Holocene insolation-forced Neoglacial cooling, and thus not supporting a positive NAO anomaly during the MCA. Highly variable δ18O values record an unstable climate at the end of the MCA, preceding Norse abandonment of Greenland. The spatial pattern of paleoclimate in this region supports proposals that North Atlantic subpolar ocean currents modulated South Greenland’s climate over the past 3000 yr, particularly during the MCA. Terrestrial climate in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay regions may be spatially heterogeneous on centennial time scales due in part to the influence of the subpolar gyre.”

Zhang et al., 2019

“In core 31003, the SST record shows a distinctly anti-phase relationship with that of core 38002 over the last millennium. For instance, from the MWP to LIA, SST values increased from ∼17.0 ± 0.3°C to ∼19.1 ± 0.6°C in the northern core 38002 but decreased from ∼24.3 ± 0.4°C to ∼23.5 ± 0.3°C in the southern coastal core 31003. Since 1850 AD, the SST record in core 31003 elevated within the range of 24.3 ± 0.4°C, similar to values during the MWP, but decreased gradually to 18.0°C in core 38002, in line with the SST trends at two additional locations from the YSWC [Yellow Sea Warm Current] pathway as reported by He et al. (2014).”


Araźny et al., 2019

“Air temperature in 1899–1914 during three expeditions was 1.8–4.6 °C lower than the modern period in winter (Oct–Apr). However, during the 1930/31 expedition it was 4.6 °C warmer than the years 1981–2010. Our results relate to what has been called the ‘1930s warming’, referred to by various authors in the literature as the ETCW or the ETCAW. … In individual months, the highest negative anomalies were identified in Calm Bay (hereafter CB) in January 1914 (− 7.4 °C) and in February 1900 (− 6.8 °C). In contrast, during the 1930/31 expedition, it was 4.6 °C warmer than the present day in CB [Calm Bay]. Such a high thermal anomaly was influenced by a warm autumn and winter, especially February 1931, when the average monthly temperature was 10.7 °C higher than in the modern period.”


Huang et al., 2019

The temperature effect of the Zhada δ18OTR series is further verified by consistency with nearby ice-core δ18O variability.”


Huang et al., 2019

Climatic change is exhibiting significant effects on the ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a climate-sensitive area. In particular, winter frost, freezing events and snow avalanche frequently causing severe effects on ecosystem and social economy, however, few long-term winter temperature records or reconstructions hinder a better understanding on variations in winter temperature in the vast area of the TP. In this paper, we present a minimum winter (November–February) temperature reconstruction for the past 668 years based on a tree-ring network (12 new tree-ring chronologies) on the southeastern TP. The reconstruction exhibits decadal to inter-decadal temperature variability, with cold periods occurring in 1423–1508, 1592–1651, 1729–1768, 1798–1847, 1892–1927, and 1958–1981, and warm periods in 1340–1422, 1509–1570, 1652–1728, 1769–1797, 1848–1891, 1928–1957, and 1982–2007. … It also shows the possible effects of volcanic eruption and reducing solar activity on the winter temperature variability for the past six centuries on the southeastern TP.”


Vermassen  et al., 2019

“A link between the physical oceanography of West Greenland and Atlantic SSTs has indeed been suggested previously: a positive phase of the AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation] is related to an increase of warm Atlantic waters flowing towards and along the SE and W Greenland shelf (Drinkwater et al., 2014; Lloyd et al., 2011). … Despite differences in the timing and magnitude of the retreat of the different glaciers, they broadly share the same retreat history. High retreat rates occurred between the mid ‘30s and mid ‘40s (400-800m/yr), moderate retreat rates between 1965-1985 (~200 m/yr, except for Upernavik) and high retreat rates again after 2000 (>200 m/yr). …  Since the meridional overturning circulation strength and associated heat transport is currently declining, (Frajka-Williams et al., 2017), this may lead to cooling bottom waters during the next decade in Upernavik Fjord and most likely also other fjords in West-Greenland.”


Kutta and Hubbart, 2019

Between 1900 and 2016, climatic trends were characterized by significant reductions in the maximum temperatures (−0.78°C/century; p = 0.001), significant increases in minimum temperatures (0.44 °C/century; p = 0.017) [overall -0.34°C per century], and increased annual precipitation (25.4 mm/century) indicative of a wetter and more temperate WV climate. Despite increasing trends of growing degree days during the first (p ≤ 0.015) and second half of the period of record, the long-term trend indicated a decrease in GDD [warm growing degree days] of approximately 100 °C/days.”


Eck et al., 2019

“A majority (12/14) of the regions within the SAM [southern Appalachian Mountains] have experienced a long‐term decline in mean winter temperatures since 1910.”


Deng et al., 2019

“Recent SST records based on longchain alkenones imply that the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] was slightly warmer than the CWP [Current Warm Period] in the northern SCS [South China Sea] (Kong et al., 2017).  … [I]t still should be noted that the SST record reconstructed from a Tridacna gigas Sr/Ca profile by Yan et al. (2015a) suggested that the annual average SST was approximately 0.89°C higher during the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] than that of the CWP [Current Warm Period].”


Zhang et al., 2019

“Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends … Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends.”


Etourneau et al., 2019

“Based on water stable isotopes calibrated to recent air temperatures [Abram et al., 2013, Mulvaney et al., 2012], the reconstructed mean annual SAT documents a 1.5 °C cooling over the Holocene occurring in two steps between 10,000 and 6000 years before present (BP), and 3500 and 500 years BP. The Holocene cooling was interrupted by a slightly warmer period. The first main cooling episode corresponds to a phase of major EAP [East Antarctic Peninsula] ice shelf retreat reported in the literature [Domack et al., 2005, Cofaigh et al., 2014, Johnson et al., 2011, Davies et al., 2012]. … The Larsen A ice shelf was probably destabilized at least as early as ~6300 years BP [Brachfeld et al., 2003], while evidence show that the Larsen B ice shelf experienced a continuous and significant shrinkage throughout the Holocene [Domack et al., 2005]. Hence, the EAP ice shelves underwent a major retreat mostly between ~8000 and 6000 years BP. … [T]he ice core-derived SAT were overall warmer throughout the Holocene than during the last two millennia and could have hence favored the EAP [East Antarctic Peninsula] ice shelf surface melting during the entire period. … The long-term SOT [subsurface ocean temperatures] increasing trend at the JPC-38 core site was punctuated by up to 1.5 °C warm events at the centennial scale.”


Voelker et al., 2019


Gan et al., 2019

“Daily Minimum temperature (Tmin) is an important variable in both global and regional climate changes, and its variability can greatly affect the ecological system. In the early 21st century, warming slowdown is seen over the North Hemisphere and North America is one of the major cooling centers. … In this study, we found that Tmin experienced an obvious decline in North America during warming slowdown period. Such Tmin decline is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the correlation between the decadal components of Tmin and AMO reached 0.71 during 1950-2014.”


Li et al., 2019

“On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth’s orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China’s temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT [other natural forcing] in the early 21st century.”


Kushnir and Stein, 2019

Medieval Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean: Instability and Evidence of Solar Forcing … The Nile summer flood levels were particularly low during the 10th and 11th centuries, as is also recorded in a large number of historical chronicles that described a large cluster of droughts that led to dire human strife associated with famine, pestilence and conflict. During that time droughts and cold spells also affected the northeastern Middle East, in Persia and Mesopotamia. Seeking an explanation for the pronounced aridity and human consequences across the entire EM, we note that the 10th–11th century events coincide with the medieval Oort Grand Solar Minimum, which came at the height of an interval of relatively high solar irradiance. Bringing together other tropical and Northern Hemisphere paleoclimatic evidence, we argue for the role of long-term variations in solar irradiance in shaping the early MCA in the EM and highlight their relevance to the present and near-term future.”

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The Faked Crisis: Polar Bear Expert’s Book Poised To Become Hot Seller, Expose Polar Alarmism Community

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A newly released book is bad news for global warming alarmists who are desperately seeking bad news for fueling their fear-based, non-scientific movement.

Polar bear expert and veteran zoologist Dr. Susan J. Crockford has just released her latest book titled: “The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.

As the title says: there never was a polar bear crisis due to global warming. It was made up to scare the public. The numbers back it up.

The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.

The polar bear, an icon used by climate alarmists for symbolizing dangerous climate change, in fact has seen its population rise strongly over the recent decades and has shown its ability to thrive in the Arctic as sea ice levels fluctuate.

Book on failed predictions and “backlash”

In her book Dr. Crockford explains how activist researchers tried to create a polar bear crisis using shoddy computer simulations, bad science and hiding inconvenient facts. But now their failed predictions have led to a total loss of scientific credibility, which Crockford says “they entirely deserve”.

Arctic sea ice stable over past 12 years

For example just 10 years ago a number of “experts” predicted that the Arctic sea ice would disappear in late summer by now. Today we see that Arctic sea ice has since stabilized and there has been no decrease in 12 years.

No catastrophic decline in polar bears

In her book, the Canadian zoologist also explains the tale of why the catastrophic decline in polar bear numbers we were promised in 2007 “failed to materialise”. She adds: “It is also, in part, the story of my role in bringing that failure to public attention, and the backlash against me that ensued.”

Population as high as 40,000

Obviously it has turned out that polar bears too are a long way off from disappearing. Crockford writes in her book:

And despite decades of handwringing, polar bear numbers are not only higher than 50 years ago, but may be much higher than leading polar bear specialists are willing to entertain, perhaps as high as 39,000 (range 26,000–58,000).”

She adds:

In summary, despite the fact that sea ice coverage since 2007 has repeatedly reached levels not predicted until 2050 or later, not only has the estimated global population size of polar bears not declined by 67% (i.e. to 8100) – or even just over 30% – it has increased by approximately 20% above the estimate used by the USGS analysts who made the predictions.”

Vicious backlash

In her book readers will experience first hand of what it is like for honest scientists to speak truth to power, and the risks and harassment they are forced to confront.

About the author

Susan CrockfordSusan Crockford is a 35-year veteran zoologist who has also published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbiaand co-owner of a private consulting company, Pacific Identifications Inc.

Her publications are available at her website Polar Bear Science. She also authrored : Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change.

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Fading Warming…More Cooling: Winters At Austria’s Ischgler Idalpe Have Become 1.3°C COLDER Over Past 30 Years!

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Good news for skiers: winters at Austria’s Ischgler Idalpe have become colder over the past 30 years

By Die kalte Sonne
(Text translated by P Gosselin)


New report shows Austrian winters have ignored global warming. Image cropped Zukunft Skisport.

The Austrian Paznaun is a valley in the far west of North Tyrol with an altitude of 900-1800 meters above sea level.

The region thrives on tourism, especially skiing, which generates more than 2 million overnight stays annually. For this reason, hosts and visitors have a special interest in the effects of climate change in Paznaun.

What are the current trends? In November 2018, ski tourism researcher Günther Aigner presented a study in which he closely examined winter trends using the official series of measurements. The pdf of the work can be downloaded free of charge from the web platform “Zukunft Skisport“, where further studies are also available.

Here is the short version of what he found:

The winters in the Paznaun since 1895: An analysis of official winter temperature and snow measurement series

The winters on the Ischgler Idalpe have become colder in the past 30 years. At the ZAMG station (Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), winter temperatures fell in a linear trend from minus 4.8 to minus 6.1 degrees Celsius – that is: by 1.3 degrees. Seven of the last ten winters were colder than the 30-year average.

However, no significant winter temperature changes have been observed on the Paznaun mountains for the past 50 years. In discussions about the course of temperatures in relation to winter sports in Tyrol, the choice of time axis is therefore of great importance. The snow measurements at the ZAMG Galtür station over the last 123 years show no statistically significant trends.

Since 1895/96, the annual number of days with natural snow cover has remained statistically unchanged at an average of 173 days. The highest annual snow heights since 1895/96 also show no statistical change and average 114 cm. Their variability is considerable, as the range goes from only 38cm in winter 2016/17 to 210cm in winter 1998/99.

In the ski area “Silvretta Arena” in Ischgl one could ski on 155 days in the average of the last 32 years. The linear trend is rising. Looking at the official measurement data evaluated in this study, the climatological conditions for winter sports in Paznaundie have remained favorable over the last 30 years. No forecasts for the future can be derived from the evaluations published here.”

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French Doctor Calls “Instrumentalization” Of Greta Thunberg “Irresponsible”, “Moral Error” …Revealing “Neuropsychiatric State To Media Should Be A Crime”

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Laurent Alexandre: “Greta Thunberg instrumentalized by militant extremists

In a stinging commentary at Le Figaro here, Dr. Laurent Alexandre, surgeon-urologist, a graduate of Sciences Po, HEC and ENA, and co-founder of the Doctissimo website, asserts that teenage Nobel Prize nominee Greta Thunberg is being shamelessly exploited and “is playing into the hands of economic interests for whom climate protection is of little importance”.

Dr. Laurent Alexandre. Image: https://twitter.com/dr_l_alexandre?lang=de

The French physician blasts the instrumentalization of the special child as “irresponsible” and that “revealing her neuropsychiatric state to the media should be a crime.”

“Substitute for the Marxist dictatorship” and “liberticidal agenda”

Laurent Alexandre first comments that “the young people who follow Greta Thunberg are the useful idiots of the green dictatorship” much in the same way Lenin called left-wing bourgeois “useful idiots of the revolution” and that the failures of all Marxist models have “left the anti-liberals in turmoil.”

He writes that ecology today serves as “the ideal instrument to propose a new utopia that is a substitute for the Marxist dictatorship”. He adds: “By exploiting the youth, we are imposing a liberticidal agenda in the name of good feelings.”

Targets reachable only possible through a green dictatorship

Alexandre comments that Thunberg and the leftists are demanding that “we reduce our energy consumption by at least to a fourth, and believes that “imposing such a step backwards can only be achieved through the green dictatorship.”

The French physician even characterizes the militant activists as the “Khmer greens” and “green ayatollahs”, and reminds readers that the measures that are demanded by the greens will likely end up leading to more CO2 emissions rather than less because they are also demanding the shut down of nuclear power. If the nuclear power plants in France were to be shut down, fossil plants would need to be on standby and spring into action on sunless, windless days.

“Shamefully manipulated victim”

Alexandre implies that Greta Thunberg is unwittingly promoting “the interests of China and Russia” and that her demands would make us “highly dependent on rare metals needed for wind, solar and storage installations, of which China has a near-monopoly.”

The French urologist and book author describes Ms. Thunberg as “a shamefully manipulated victim” who needs to be protected, but adds that her radical ideas “must be attacked relentlessly”.

Criminal child abuse?

The tragedy of Greta Thunberg, Alexandre comments, is that “the child is all the more manipulable as her parents have made her disability public (which is irresponsible on their part)” and that as a doctor he believes that “revealing the neuropsychiatric state of minor children to the media should be a crime!”

He concludes:

We have known since Hans Asperger’s description of the syndrome in 1941 that Asperger’s children are sometimes brilliant but always fragile; instrumentalizing them is a moral fault.”

Movement of “deadly utopias”

Finally, Alexandre comments that following the green path will backfire because it would “aggravate global warming, increase the waste of public money, lead to a regressive green dictatorship and put us at the mercy of China and Russia. All liberal democrats, all Raymond Aron’s heirs, must combat the deadly utopias it conveys.”

 

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2018 Study Finds ‘Unsustainable’ Smartphone CO2 Emissions To Reach 125 Megatons Per Year By 2020

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For those serious about taking concerted action to combat climate change, implications from a 2018 study suggest that the widespread abandonment of  smartphone use — which is collectively on track to add 125 megatons of CO2 equivalent per year by 2020 — may be key to preventing the planet’s catastrophic demise.

Image Source (adapted): Press-Herald

Most people haven’t considered their smartphones to be significant contributors to global CO2 emissions.

But they are.  And they are poised to become one of the more prominent obstacles to global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in the coming decades.

The unsustainable expansion of smartphone emissions

A recent analysis by Belkhir and Elmeligi (2018) determined that the greenhouse gas emissions from the Information and Communication Industry (ICT) – smartphones and mobile devices, prominently – will grow from 1% of total global emissions in 2007 to 14% by 2040. That’s more than half of today’s relative contribution from the globe’s entire transportation sector.

In 2010, smartphone use added 17 megatons of CO2 equivalent (17 MT-CO2-e) to annual global emissions. By next year (2020), smartphone emissions are expected to reach 125 MT-CO2-e/year – a 730% explosion in just 10 years.

Last year (2018), there were 2.5 billion smartphone users.  Belkhir and Elmeligi suggest that if there aren’t serious efforts to reduce or eliminate smartphone use in the near future, the number of smartphone units across the globe may reach 8.7 billion by 2040.

This is unsustainable, dramatically undermining global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.

Image Source: The Conversation

Protesters demand climate action

This past weekend, climate change protesters took to the streets across the world by the hundreds of thousands.

Many of these protesters were children and youth.  They decided to skip school last Friday to demonstrate just how deeply concerned they are about the Earth’s climate.

There is little these young people can do to save the planet from extinction as far as directly influencing government policy.

However, there is something that they – and we – can do that would make a difference in reducing our CO2 emissions impact: give up our smartphones.

Permanently.

And encourage all our friends and family members to do the same.

Widespread smartphone renunciation would be a symbolic testament to our commitment to rescuing the planet from the oncoming climate catastrophe.

It’s not too late…yet.  Shall we begin?

Image Source: Belkhir and Elmeligi, 2018
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“Global Warming” Leaves Ireland In The Cold …Emerald Island Has Been Cooling Over Past 3 Decades!

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By Kirye

As today is St. Patricks Day, it’s a good time to look at Ireland’s annual mean temperatures over the recent decades.

As we recall, global cooling was the scare of the 1970s before global warming became the scare in the 1980s. So since the 1980s, a fair amount of warming must have taken place, right?

No.

Ireland has been cooling

Looking at 6 stations (half at airports!) across the emerald island, we see in fact there’s been a notable cooling over the past 25 years, since 1994:

Data: JMA

Obviously global warming never made it to the island. And yes, it’s mysterious how the Irish media still continue to hysterically warn about warming when temperatures in fact have been falling instead of rising.

The source of the (untampered) plotted data is the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA). The six datasets were selected because of their data completeness – only a few months of data are missing.

30 years of cooling

The non-warming trend of the 6 Irish stations goes back to 1986, i.e. more than 30 years:

Data: JMA

There has not been any warming since 1986, thus surpassing the 30-year mean that is defined as “climate”. We see a similar trend in my home country of Japan.

Cooling since Hansen’s 1988 warnings of warming

When did the Irish cooldown start? After the cold years of 1986 and 1987, the temperature spiked more than 3°C in a single year to 11.5°C in 1988, the year that Dr. James Hansen told the world before Congress that the planet was heating and would heat up to unbearable conditions within 30 years.

Plotting the data since Dr. Hansen’s dire warnings in 1988, we see that Ireland in fact has cooled off:

Data: JMA

If the Irish can celebrate anything this St. Patrick’s Day, it is the fact that they won’t need to worry about overheating anytime soon.

Happy St. Patrick’s day everyone.

===============================
Pierre Gosselin contributed to this article.

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Leading Swiss Publisher Calls Climate Movement A “Mass Trance” …Climate Hysteria Understood As “Absolute Truth”

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The publisher of conservative Swiss weekly “Weltwoche” and SVP National Council member Roger Köppel commented in an interview with the Baseler Zeitung (BaZ) on children skipping school to demonstrate for climate, and the climate movement in general.

Weltwoche publisher Roger Köppel. Image: https://twitter.com/KoeppelRoger

In the interview Köppel called the climate movement a “political mass trance that that is currently rolling over us” and that children have been prompted to skip school and protest an “infantilization” of politics.

In the interview, Köppel notes that the planet has warmed “only one degree since 1860” and that this increase is nothing unusual in a historical context.

“Dangerous” state intervention

When the BAZ points out that his opinion is more one from the fringes, Köppel dismisses it, telling the “Evangelium of climate prophets” is being challenged by renowned scientists like Richard Lindzen “while policymaking is already convinced that this climate hysteria is to be understood as absolute truth.”

He tells the BaZ that “it is dangerous that the state is massively intervening in our economy and energy supply.”

“State collective much more dangerous”

Later in the interview Köppel calls the belief that man has the main control over climate “presumption, religious delusion and self-denial.” When asked whether or not the state indeed should take action with regards to the “climate crisis”, Köppel replied “no”  and added: “The state climate collective is much more dangerous than climate change.”

“Dangerously one-sided” debate needs to be countered

So aggressive were the questions posed by the BaZ that Köppel asked: “Stop with this CO2 demonization”, telling the BAZ: “We have a hype about the climate. I’m talking about a new solar religion, a kind of political trance. It is the duty of citizens to take countermeasures. The debate is dangerously one-sided.”

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Tokyo Warming Due To Urbanization, Leading Japanese Biologist Tells National TV Audience…Almost No Rural Warming

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By Kirye (in Tokyo)

On March 13, Japan’s Honmaddeka TV spoke about THE SANKEI NEWS, which reported there is a possibility that people will become less able to see cherry blossoms in full bloom in the near future. Readers may surmise the culprit for this themselves.

Biologist Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda tells audience on Honmaddeka TV that warming in Tokyo is due to urban heat island effect, not global warming. (Image: Honmaddeka TV).

Urban heat island effect responsible for Tokyo’s warming

However well-known Japanese biologist Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda poured some cold water on that claim, commenting on Honmaddeka TV last Wednesday: “They said that it’s global warming’s fault, but actually it is because of heat island effect. Most of the cherry trees are in cities, for example in the neighborhood of Tokyo or surroundings. The urban areas are getting warmer. Tokyo has gotten warmer by 3.2℃ over the last one hundred years and Hukuoka by 3.1℃.”

Rural locations not warming

Dr. Ikeda then noted: “However in Hachijojima and Miyakejima [islands of Tokyo], the temperature did not change in the period. So only cities are getting warmer. Urban cherry blossoms are getting worse. Cherry trees […]  get a real wake-up after being exposed to cold winter temperatures for a long spell. There are people who worry that the cherry tree period of dormancy won’t work if the weather warms earlier and so they will not blossom in a normal way.”

More on this here.

No warming in 90 years

Unadjusted data from the NASA and the JMA for island of Hachijojima (Tokyo) and Tokyo city back up his statement. In fact, Hachijojima has not seen any temperature increase since 1926, i.e. 90 years (NASA data begin in December):

Chart: KiryeNet. Data: NASA.

Comparing the rural (island) Hachijojima’s trend to Tokyo’s since 1980:

Tokyo’s mean annual temperature has been rising, while nearby rural island Hachijojima has not seen any warming this century. Chart: KiryeNet.

Tokyo cherry trees haven’t been blossoming earlier

Though historical observations for cherry blossoms in Tokyo show they have been appearing earlier over the long-term, they have not been occurring earlier since the start of the current century:

Chart by Kirye; data from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA). 2019 data will be available soon.

That should not be a surprise because although Tokyo long-term annual temperature has risen, its winters have not warmed up since 1985:

Chart: Kirye; data from JMA.

In summary, mean annual temperatures in Japan’s urban areas are being impacted hugely by urban heat island effect. Yet in the countryside – away from all the asphalt, steel and concrete – this is not quite the case at all. In the media we are seeing more hysteria than fact when it comes to aspects such as cherry blossoms and warming.

P. Gosselin (Germany) contributed to this article.

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New Study: North America Has Been Cooling Since 1998 – With No Significant Overall Warming Since 1982

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The Post-1998 Hiatus

Plods On…Regionally

Image Source: Gan et al., 2019

North America (180-0°N, 15-60°N) has been characterized as a “major cooling center” by the authors of a new paper (Gan et al., 2019) published in Earth and Space Science.

The continent warmed from 1982-1998, but a cooling trend since 1998 has nearly wiped out all the previous warming.

Overall, there has been no significant temperature change in North America since 1982.

The warming and cooling trends, especially the daily temperature minimum (Tmin), are well-correlated (r=0.71) with the path of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during 1950-2014, leading the authors to conclude that the temperature trends over this 32-year period are “a result of” natural changes in the AMO.


Gan et al., 2019

The Key Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
in Minimum Temperature Over North America
During Global Warming Slowdown

“Daily Minimum temperature (Tmin) is an important variable in both global and regional climate changes, and its variability can greatly affect the ecological system. In the early 21st century, warming slowdown is seen over the North Hemisphere and North America is one of the major cooling centers.”
In this study, we found that Tmin experienced an obvious decline in North America during warming slowdown period. Such Tmin decline is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the correlation between the decadal components of Tmin and AMO reached 0.71 during 1950-2014.”
“According to composite analysis, the AMO on the positive (negative) phase takes two low-pressure (high-pressure) systems in the northeastern Pacific and the North Atlantic at night, accompanied by cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations and warm (cold) advection in North America. Therefore, the analyses conclude that the Tmin decline during warming slowdown period is a result of the synchronous decrease of the AMO. The results emphasize the key role of AMO on the decadal variation of Tmin in North America.”

Image Source: Gan et al., 2019

Another new paper renews the global warming “hiatus” debate and documents a 21st century cooling trend in northern China that also effectively snuffs out the previous decades of warming for the region.


Li et al., 2019

Satellite-based regional warming

hiatus in China and its implication

Global warming ‘stalled’ or ‘paused’ for the period 1998–2012, as claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2013). However, the early drafts of IPCC AR5 have no detailed explanation for this “hiatus” since 111 of 114 climate models in the CMIP5 earth system model did not verify this phenomenon. … In 2017, after a wave of scientific publications and public debate, the climate models as reported in IPCC remain debates, including definitions of “hiatus” and datasets (Medhaug et al., 2017).”

Image Source: Li et al., 2019
“The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 ), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth’s orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China’s temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT [other natural forcing] in the early 21st century.”

Image Source: Li et al., 2019
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Despite Mild Winter, Central Europe’s 30-Year Winter Temperature Trend Still Cooling

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The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here presents two charts which I’m featuring today.

They show that the winter temperature trend for Germany over the past 32 years is not cooperating with “experts'” forecasts of rapid warming and snow and ice becoming a thing of the past.

The first chart, using the data from Germany’s DWD national weather service, shows that wintertime mean temperature trend in Germany has not risen in 32 years:

The green trendline shows that although CO2 in the atmosphere globally has increased from about 350 ppm since 1988 to about 412 ppm currently, Germany’s mean winter temperature has fallen a bit.

France winters cooling

The story is true for much of France as well. Japanese blogger Kirye prepared a chart depicting the winter mean temperature of 12 stations across the country using the untampered data available from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA):


Source: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/

Germany trending away from droughts

Also the German media are often filled with scare stories telling us we will be seeing increasing number of droughts and dryness, and that last year’s dry summer was just a taste of what is to come.

Yet once again the data contradict all the doomsday drought reports. The long term winter precipitation trend since records began has been upward.

However, we acknowledge the trend has been decreasing (to normal levels) since about 2000. Interestingly German precipitation shows a 40 year cycle, and so likely has nothing to do with CO2.

The annual precipitation trend for Germany has also been upward overall, and it too has been trending downward since about 2000 (during this time sunshine hours have increased):

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Climate Regulatory Madness Ratchets Up: “German Greens Aiming To Limit Citizens To 2 Flights A Year

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Recently we reported here how the German Greens are the biggest frequent fliers, and thus climate hypocrites. So it’s only ironic that they are now calling for flight restrictions to be imposed on all citizens.

Of course, important people who do really “important things” — like flying to world-rescuing climate conferences — would be exempt or have the added fees paid by the taxpayer.

According to a number of leading Germany dailies, e.g. here, and here, Green Party parliamentarian Dieter Janecek (42) “wants to spoil the German ‘desire to fly a lot’ with hefty price increases – in order to protect the climate.”

Only 2 roundtrip flights a year

Janeck told the Münchener Merkur that citizens should be allowed only 2 roundtrip flights annually. In Janeck’s proposal, a 30 – 50% surcharge would be added beginning with the third international roundtrip flight.

According to the Münchener Merkur, Janeck says that each citizen is to b allotted “a fixed budget” of two or three flight pairs.

Accordingly, each person has a fixed budget of three flight pairs per year that they can buy normally. “If you want to fly more, you have to buy the flights from others who are not using their budget,” Janecek said.

Customer repairs over the phone

Janeck believes that companies and authorities will think more about utilizing video conferencing in place of traveling for meetings. ”

One aspect of the proposal is that “everyone would have practically their own private emissions trading system.”

“And those who fly little can even sell shares and earn money,” Janecek said.

“Horrified” reaction

But Janeck’s proposal has come under fire the center right CSU party transportation expert Daniela Ludwig (43), who, according to Bild newspaper, “reacted horrified”. Ludwig told BILD: “Climate protection does not work with paternalism and prohibitions, but only through sensitization. We will not be able to market our German products worldwide only through video conferencing.”

FDP faction leader Christian Lindner (40) warns: “Those who ration air travel are showing the old face of a party that aims to ban everything.”

“Stupid proposal”

Even the Greens-friendly socialists blasted the draconian idea. Johannes Kahrs (55, SPD party) spoke of a ‘stupid proposal’: “People should decide for themselves when and how they fly”, especially working people have no other choice,” Bild reported.

Bild daily remarks that Janeck’s proposal probably would be most unpopular among his own Green Party where its member have been found to be the champions of frequent flying. Bild reports: “Surveys show time and again that Green politicians and sympathizers hold the record for the number of flights.”

Could actually lead to more flying

As a low-frequency flier (one flight per year) I don’t think it’s that bad an idea. For those who rarely fly, especially the poor, it would be possible for them to collect credits and to fly maybe more often.

But on the other hand, it would mean the creation of yet another bureaucratic monstrosity, more intrusion into the free market and more control over private lives. The proposal should be filed in the dustbin.

Once again Janeck’s proposal only confirms that leftists and environmentalists only want to tell everyone else how to live and what to do.

Ban all domestic flights

As extreme as the German Green party’s proposal may sound, its still falls short of what extremist scientists are calling for.

Former Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) director and frequent flier Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, for example, said that “domestic flights within Germany should be banned” and be replaced by a better continental high-speed train network. Read more here.

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New Paper: Widespread Collapse Of Ice Sheets ~5000 Years Ago Added 3-4 Meters To Rising Seas

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During the Mid-Holocene, when CO2 concentrations were stable and low (270 ppm), Antarctica’s massive Ross Ice Shelf naturally collapsed, adding the meltwater equivalent of 3-4 meters to sea levels.

Because CO2 concentrations changed very modestly during the pre-industrial Holocene (approximately ~25 ppm in 10,000 years), climate models that are predicated on the assumption that CO2 concentration changes drive ocean temperatures, ice sheet melt, and sea level rise necessarily simulate a very stable Holocene climate.

In contrast, changes in ocean temperatures, ice sheet melt, and sea level rise rates were far more abrupt and variable during the Holocene than during the last 100 years.

Modern ocean changes are barely detectable in the context of natural variability

Image Source(s): Rosenthal et al., 2013Climate Audit

The temperatures of the global ocean have changed by just 0.1°C in the last 50 years, and just 0.02°C during 1994-2013.

According to Levitus et al. (2012), the global ocean’s 0-2000 m layer warmed by 0.09°C during 1955-2010, while the 0-700 m layer warmed by 0.18°C during that span.

In the context of the Pacific Ocean’s 0-700 m temperature changes during the last two millennia (Rosenthal et al. 2013), that 0.18°C change in 55 years is barely detectable.

Mid-Holocene centennial-scale sea level fluctuations were much higher than today’s

During the Early Holocene, when continental ice sheets were still in the process of melting, sea levels rose at rates that ranged between 10 to 60 mm/yr, or 1 to 6 meters per century (Ivanovic et al., 2017; Zecchin et al., 2015; Hodgson et al., 2016).

During the Mid- to Late-Holocene, when relative sea level was about 2 meters higher than today’s levels, sea levels rose and fell at rates of a half-meter to a meter per century, with 13 mm/yr reached on decadal timescales.

Image Source: Meltzner et al., 2017

Image Source: Mörner et al., 2011

In contrast, the modern record indicates that sea levels only rose at a rate of 1.5 mm/yr during 1958-2014, or about 0.15 of a meter (6 inches) per century.

Image Source: Frederikse et al., 2018

Widespread collapse of ice sheets from 5000-1500 years ago

A new paper (Yokoyama et al. [2019]) suggests that the Antarctic (and/or Greenland) ice sheets melted to such an extent around 5000 years ago that they added between 3 and 4 meters to sea levels.

The Ross Ice Shelf (Antarctica) underwent “widespread collapse” during this period (Yokoyama et al., 2016), subjected to rates of retreat and sub-ice shelf water temperatures much higher than present.

These melting events occurred while CO2 concentrations were a low and quiescent 270 ppm.

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2019

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2016

Image Source: Yokoyama et al., 2016
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Hurricane Alarmists Take Blow As New Study Pours Cold Water On Human Impact

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PIK takes a blow: stronger hurricanes cannot be explained by higher CO2

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Image: NASA (public domain)

Whenever the hurricane season in the Caribbean begins, the whole world and the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) wait for a strong storm, as it presents the ideal opportunity to sell climate change, as was the case in September 2017 when Potsdam’s Neueste Nachrichten (PNN) daily reported with reference to the PIK’s Anders Levermann:

Global warming provides energy for stronger tropical storms
According to Potsdam climate researchers, the impact of the current tropical cyclones can be attributed to climate change. Burning coal, oil and gas increases the temperature of the planet and thus provides energy for ever stronger tropical storms, explained Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “Unfortunately, physics here is very clear: hurricanes draw their destructive energy from the warmth of the ocean. The water temperatures in the region are too high. Climate change does not cause these storms, but it can “make their consequences worse.”

Will the intensity of hurricanes increase with climate change? Can this be detected today, as Levermann concludes so trivially? This is not the case, say researchers around Lory Trenary from George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. They investigated climate models and re-analyses and found no connection with the drive by greenhouse gases, especially CO2.

The long-term trends 1958-2005 were ultimately contradictory and not valid. An attribution of hurricane intensity to climate change is still not possible. In the introduction to their current work, they also mention Levermann’s argument: “Warmer ocean-more severe storms! After a detailed analysis, however, they come to the following conclusion:

These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human related forcings.”

Already in the past there was disagreement among atmospheric researchers about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on hurricane intensity. Levermann did not bother with this last year either, because as a researcher he is undoubtedly informed about the various topics. So the only reason for spreading the false claim remains the climate siren character of the PIK and others.

Here is the abstract from the work of Trenary et al., which appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters on March 4, 2019:

Are mid‐20th century forced changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity detectable?

Abstract: The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in CMIP5 models for the period 1958‐2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal variability. The use of discriminant analysis to optimize detectability does not yield a clear, common climate change signal. Of the seven models with a significant response, one has a negative linear trend while two have a positive linear trend. The trend in PI is not even consistent among reanalyses, although this difference is not statistically significant because of large uncertainties. Furthermore, estimates of PI internal variability have significantly different variances among different reanalysis products. These disagreements between models, reanalysis products, and between models and reanalyses, in conjunction with relatively large uncertainties, highlight the difficulty of detecting and attributing observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity.

Plain Language Summary: Observed temperature has been steadily increasing over the last century and much of this warming can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, the maximum intensity (or potential intensity) a hurricane can achieve depends strongly upon sea surface temperature, with warmer temperatures producing stronger storms. From this perspective, we might expect that the warming surface temperatures are driving observable changes in hurricane intensity. To this end, we analyze climate model experiments to determine if the observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity can be attributed to human related emissions over the period 1958‐2005. Of the eleven models analyzed, we find that only seven predict that hurricane potential intensity has changed in response to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The change in potential intensity differs across models, with one model predicting a decreasing trend in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, while two models predict an increasing trend in potential intensity. Different reanalysis datasets are likewise inconsistent. These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human related forcings. It is possible that as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, an unequivocal forced response in North Atlantic potential intensity may emerge in the future.”

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