Reality Jolt: Arctic September Minimum Sea Ice Extent Trend RISING Over Past 10 Years – Norwegian Data

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Norwegian data show September minimum Arctic sea ice has risen over the past 10 years, contradicting earlier predictions of a death spiral

By Kirye
and Pierre

Friday NTZ posted on Arctic sea ice extent. This year Arctic sea ice has just about reached its minimum. and so we plot the new data (see below).

Substantial drop – since 1980

But first, of course there is no denying that September sea ice extent has has fallen substantially over the past 4 decades. Yet, those accusing us of cherry-picking also should read the entire article from last Friday, which shows the real cherry picking is done by the alarmists starting their charts in 1979, knowing full well there’s data going back far beyond that time point.

Again here’s Arctic sea ice volume going back 170 years:

Today’s sea ice volume is similar to that seen in the 1940s.

And as Tony Heller has shown dozens of times, the early 20th century is filled with newspaper clippings of a rapidly melting Arctic, which of course later refroze during the middle of the 2th century.

Rising trend

Now here’s osisaf.met.no data on annual minimum sea ice extent:

OSI Arctic sea ice minimum since 2012 ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod_test/ice/index/v2p1/nh/osisaf_nh_sie_daily.txt

September minimum trend has contradicted Al Gore’s predictions of an ice free Arctic. Whether sea ice has turned the corner and will start a recovery still remains to be seen. One thing is certain: The predictions of an ice-free Arctic soon made a decade ago were flat out wrong.




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Scientists: Boys Aged 12-15 Are Hospitalized Up To 23x More Due To COVID Vaccines Than Due To COVID

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A new study asserts “vaccine associated cardiac harms” to children resulting in 7-day hospital stays are 143% to 280% more common than the Center for Disease Control (CDC, US) has claimed.

The CDC estimates 43% of children under 18 across the world have already been infected with COVID during the first 19 months of the pandemic (Høeg et al., 2021). With about 2.2 billion children on Earth, this means there have been an estimated 1 billion children infected thus far.

The United Kingdom’s COVID records indicate 999,998 out of 1,000,000 children infected with COVID survive. That’s an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.002% for children.

(Per a synthesis of 680 studies from across the globe, the median IFR for all ages is 0.15%. So, regardless of age, 99.85% of those infected with COVID survive.)

Underreporting “vaccine-related harms” to children

On the 23rd of August, the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) reported the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine conferred “an excess risk” of myocarditis approaching 200 cases per million (1/5000) for boys aged 16 and 17 (Høeg et al., 2021). This is a rate 3 times higher than the rate of myocarditis claimed by the CDC.

A new study (pre-print) suggests the health costs and cardiac adverse events (CAE) associated with vaccinating children far exceed the perceived health benefits of preventing COVID infection.

During a recent phase of the COVID pandemic, boys aged 12-15 were hospitalized with complications related to COVID at a rate of 7 (hospitalizations) per million infections. Boys aged 12-15 are hospitalized with “vaccine-associated cardiac harms” (myocarditis) at a rate of 162 per million after the second dose. This means vaccines are associated with 23 times more (7-day) cardiac adverse event hospitalizations.

Consequently, the authors issue a warning:

“In light of the vaccine-associated cardiac harms described in this report, further research as well as transparency about possible vaccine-related harms in relation to an individual child’s COVID-19 risks is indicated.”

Image Source: Høeg et al., 2021

Vaccine-induced adverse reactions and deaths in all age groups

The associated side effects and “clinically significant symptoms” associated with COVID vaccine injections appears to be vastly underreported.

69% of those surveyed report side effects such as fatigue, headache, chills, muscle pain, fever, joint pain…after the first vaccine dose. It’s 89% for those who have previously been infected with COVID per The New England Journal of Medicine.

Image Source: The New England Journal of Medicine

Another study (Debes et al., 2021) reports 43% of health care workers experience clinically significant symptoms after their second vaccine dose. Those who have previously been infected with COVID are 4.4 times more likely to experience clinically significant symptoms.

Image Source: Debes et al., 2021

The UK government has reported the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been associated with 314,700 adverse reactions (blindness, deafness, strokes, seizures, clotting, etc.) and 524 deaths thus far this year for those who live in England.

Image Source: gov.uk

The AstraZeneca vaccine has been associated with 820,964 adverse reactions and 1,064 deaths thus far this year in the UK.

Image Source: gov.uk
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Stalled: September Arctic Sea Remains Surprisingly Stable Over Past Decade, “Long Way From Predicted “Ice Free”

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This year’s Arctic sea ice minimum reaches third highest level in a decade, latest data show.

Die kalte Sonne here presents its latest climate video. The first part looks at this year’s Arctic sea ice melt season. Now that it’s September, sea ice extent has just about reached its minimum for the year and soon the annual refreeze will begin.

We recall that years ago alarmist scientists and wacko activists, like al Gore, predicted an ice free Arctic by now. Today we look at the most recent data and we see that we are a very long way from that point.

Very slow August melt this year

What follows is the chart from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC):

Chart source: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

This year’s result is eye-opening: The German Die kalte Sonne site reports: “The Arctic sea ice is surprisingly stable” and “truly robust”.

Third highest level in 10 years

Die kalte Sonne also looks at the chart from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, where we see the September minimum ice level (15%) in 2021 is the third highest in the past decade:

Die kalte Sonne notes that we are still a long way from the once projected iceless Arctic – of the sort that climate-crisis bedwetter Al Gore predicted.

Ice volume same as 80 years ago

When one looks at Arctic ice volume going back 170 years, today’s levels are in fact very similar to those seen in 1940:

As the above chart suggests, there’s a lot more to ice volume at the poles than mean global surface temperature. Other cyclic natural factors, which man has absolutely no control over, are very much at play.




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Scientists Increasingly Agree The Last Ice Age Temperatures Were ~3-4°C Warmer Than Today’s

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In a “major revision” to the “long-standing view,” scientists are increasingly concluding the last glacial had summers “several degrees” warmer than today, with climate conditions warm enough to allow year-round grass grazing by horses, antelope, gazelle…in Siberia, Alaska, and north of the Arctic circle. Multiple degrees warmer glacial temperatures pervaded both hemispheres.

The “long-standing view” is the current interglacial climate is distinctly warmer and more hospitable to plants, animals, and humans than at any time during the last ice age, or glacial (from about 60,000 to 11,700 years ago). This view “has undergone a major revision” during the last 20 years of geological study according to scientists publishing in the September (2021) edition of Quaternary International.

Vegetation and tree records with specific warmth thresholds and associated ice-free temperature requirements affirm the last glacial needed to be “warmer than today by several degrees Celsius.” (Tarasov et al., 2021)

For example, these scientists document ~5°C warmer glacial climates (July) throughout Northern Asia (the study area):

“…reconstructed mean July temperatures above 12°C for most of the last cold stage [glacial] in the study area [throughout Northern Asia], where modern mean July temperatures are about 7°C”.

The widespread presence of grazing mammoths, horses, bison, deer, antelope, gazelle…in Siberia and Alaska and well north of the Arctic circle imply “year-round grazing grounds.” This requires warmer temperatures and more pervasive ice-free grass-grazing ranges than exist today.

So, contrary to the long-standing view of a generally colder-than-present last glacial climate, there is a growing body of evidence that the distinction between interglacial and glacial climates may not be as stark as previously thought.

The CO2 concentration differential of ~180 to 200 ppm during the warmer glacial periods and 280 to 410 ppm during the colder modern period also contradict the long-standing view of higher CO2 levels accommodating warmer climates, and vice versa.

Image Source: Tarasov et al., 2021 (full paper)

Another new study (Wetterich et al., 2021) again affirms the last glacial’s Siberian Arctic was warmer than it currently is (12-15°C vs. today’s 11°C)  51, 46-44, 41 and 39-31k yrs BP. It was warm enough that horses, mammoths, bison…grazed year-round on Siberian grass.

Image Source: Wetterich et al., 2021

The last glacial’s greater warmth also extended into the Southern Hemisphere according to yet another new study (Civel-Mazens et al., 2021). The Southern Ocean had “higher SST [sea surface temperatures] during the 40-24 kyrs period than during the Holocene,” with LGM [Last Glacial Maximum, 24-18 kyrs ago] temperatures peaking at 13.6°C. Today’s temperatures are ~9°C, in this region, or 4.6°C colder.

Image Source: Civel-Mazens et al., 2021

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26-18k years before present), South Africa’s temperatures where “3-4°C higher than present in summer (and 2-4°C lower than present in winter)” (Kraaj et al., 2020).

Image Source: Kraaj et al., 2020

The sub tropical South Atlantic was about 3-4°C warmer than today from about 65 to 25k years ago (Hou et al., 2020).

Image Source: Hou et al., 2020

In Eastern Europe, “both summer (ca. 19°C) and winter (2-4°C) temperatures [were] above present-day values (ca. 16°C and ca 1°C for July and January, respectively” during the last glacial (Ilyashuk et al., 2021).

Image Source: Ilyashuk et al., 2021
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Corrupt WHO

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Don’t want to get into conspiracy theories, but here’s an interesting documentary…

New Documentary on WHO Exposes Widespread Corruption, Massive Funding by Bill Gates


It’s clear that big corporations are pulling a lot of strings. It’s really all quite murky.

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Austria: 20% Hospitalized “Fully Vaccinated”. Germany: 3 In Nursing Home “Had To Be Resuscitated” After 3rd Jab

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It’s becoming increasingly clear that the vaccines against COVID are falling far short of what they were promised to be.

Oberhausen-Germany: “Three seniors had to be resuscitated” after 3rd jab

Germany has started administering third shots to the elderly and already reports of signs of dangerous side effects are emerging. In a nursing home in the western German city of Oberhausen, several seniors experienced “serious problems” a few days after the Corona booster vaccination, reports the online German WDR public broadcasting.

“Three residents of the nursing home had to be resuscitated three days after the booster vaccination.” 10% had to be medically treated.

90 residents are reported to have received the third shot at the Oberhausen nursing home. According to WDR: “Of these, nine had reactions so severe that they had to be treated,”

Now some physicians are now holding off until the Standing Commission on Vaccination (STIKO) of the Robert Koch Institute gives the official recommendation.

20% of hospitalized fully vaccinated

In Austria, online heute.at here reports 115 patients were recently in hospitals, 18 people are fighting for their lives, despite having been fully vaccinated against Corona.

According to heute.at, “Currently 20 percent of those requiring hospital treatment are fully vaccinated against Covid 19 – or about 115 people.”

Note that “fully vaccinated” means having received the second shot at least 14 days prior. People who received their second shot only 10 days prior, for example, still count as “unvaccinated”.

Israel: “Need to prepare for a fourth injection”

Once touted as an immunization against the COVID 19 virus, officials are now hoping that repeated boosters will work. In Israel, for example, 25% of the population has already had 3 shots and now “the country’s national coronavirus czar Salman Zarka said the country needs to prepare for a fourth injection, which could be modified to better protect against new variants of the virus,” reports The Daily Mail.

Despite mass vaccination, number of new cases in Israel reach a new high.  Image: Worldometer.

“Given that the virus is here and will continue to be here, we also need to prepare for a fourth injection,” Zarka told Kan public radio.




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Until Recently Scientists Believed Climate Change Has Been Melting Antarctic Glaciers. Now They Do Not.

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According to a new study, 36% of 1979-2017 Antarctic ice loss was from the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Scientists believed this glacier melt was due to anthropogenic climate change “until recently”. Now they say the glacier mass losses are due to the thin underlying crust and anomalously high geothermal heat in this region.

We’ve recently learned that “profound” cooling has been occurring for East Antarctica since the 1970s, and cooling (-1.68°C since 1979) has also extended to West Antarctica.

Another new study indicates Antarctica contributed just 0.76 of a centimeter to sea level rise from 1992-2017, or 0.3 of a millimeter per year. Also, comparing 1997-2008 to 2009-2018, there has been a net advance in the ice extent for Antarctica during 2009-2018.

“Until recently, experts attributed these changes to climate change”

The profound ice loss from West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier has by itself been responsible for about four percent of the global sea level rise in recent decades.

Possibly due to allegiance to “consensus” statements about anthropogenic global warming, it was still common for scientists to believe this glacier melt was due to the “warming” in Western Antarctica (that, as noted above, curiously disguised itself as cooling).

But a new study and its AAAS/Science press release throw more cold water on the notion that humans are driving ice melt trends in Antarctica, as “there is a conspicuously large amount of heat from Earth’s interior beneath the ice” in the very locations where the ice melt is most pronounced.

Image Source: AAAS

The direct transfer of heat can facilitate basal melting and control ice rheology and basal sliding

While the Earth’s crust has an average thickness of about 40 km, in the region of the Thwaites, Pine Island, and Pope Glaciers, the anomalously thinner crust (10 to 18 km) more readily exposes the base of this regional ice to 580°C tectonic trenches.

The “elevated geothermal heat flow band is interpreted as caused by an anomalously thin crust underlain by a hot mantle,” which is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet.”

Yet another claim made by anthropogenic global warming enthusiasts has been interred by scientific observation.

Image Source: (Dziadek et al., 2021)
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Call For German Television To Censor Climate Science/Green Energy Critics After Fritz Vahrenholt Appears On Talk Show

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Reaction to German Phoenix television talk show with Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

By

Many viewers were surprised: Phoenix, the joint news channel of ARD and ZDF (“Das ganze Bild”), invited Fritz Vahrenholt to a climate discussion round, although he had just slammed the climate ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court on Roland Tichy’s site.

In the broadcast, the former environmental senator from Hamburg did not present himself as a “climate denier,” but passionately demanded that the physical-technical realities of the green energies not be ignored.

In particular, he emphasized that after the shutdown of coal and nuclear power plants, there would not be enough electricity to the grid to supply all consumers, and therefore pleaded for a renaissance of nuclear power, as is the case with our neighbors. Politics, as is well known, is the art of the possible, and constant dripping wears away the stone, it is to be hoped.

The moderator hardly allowed a free debate between the participants and gave the floor one after the other, well aware that otherwise at least Neubauer would have wielded the rhetorical crowbar as on Anne Will.

Journalist Sara Schurmann, who had worked for Funk (and Die Zeit), demanded after the talk show that public television put on its own shackles and no longer invite climate deniers so that no false views would be broadcast over the airwaves (hat- tip to Michael Krüger). The formerly renowned BBC, of all places, has been doing this for a year now.

Reaktionen zur Phoenix-Talkshow mit Fritz Vahrenholt: „Richtlinien für Klimaberichterstattung nötig!“

This demand is quite funny because Vahrenholt did not comment on the catastrophe theory in principle at all, but only named the problems of the green energy transition that are coming in any case. Actually Neubauer, Göpel and Schurmann should be grateful to him for trying to save their ideals.




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Tokyo Summers See No Warming Trend In 27 Years…Hachijojima Pacific Island No Warming In 80 Years

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By Kirye
and Pierre

The meteorological summer 2021 has ended and the mean SUMMER annual temperature data for Tokyo and Hachijojima island are now available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

Today we plot Tokyo’s mean summer temperature going back 27 years. There’s been no rise over the period. In fact the plot shows a slight cooling trend:

Data source: JMA

Also an volcanic island – Hachijojima – belonging to Tokyo located in the middle of the ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo saw a mean summer temperature this year of 24.3°C. For Hachijojima we plot the summer mean data  going back more than 80 years, to 1940:

 

Data source: JMA

Hachijojima

The rural features of the island Hachijojima make it ideal for eliminating the urban heat island effect that we would expect to find in the huge sprawling metropolis of Tokyo. As the summer mean temperatures show, there’s been no summertime warming since 1940. The climate there in terms of temperature is no different than it was in 1940!

The hottest summers were decades ago.

As we mentioned earlier, the urban heat island effect is clearly visible when we compare the data from Tokyo and Hachijojima:

Tokyo’s maximum daily temperature has been rising much faster than that of Hachijojima. It’s not CO2.




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Bombshell Study: Vaccine Protection Against COVID Infection And Viral Load ‘Vanishes’ Within 6 Months

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Reports of plummeting vaccine effectiveness against current COVID-19 variants are proliferating. A new study assesses the viral load and risk of infection with COVID-19 is the same for a fully vaccinated person as it is for an unvaccinated person within just 180 days after the second vaccine dose. In the study, 84% of those testing positive in an Israeli hospital system were fully vaccinated.

The effectiveness of the 2-dose vaccines in reducing infectivity and viral loads was assessed from the 28th of June to 24th of August, 2021, by a team of scientists (Levine-Teifenbrun et al., 2021) using a sample of nearly 12,000 infected patients of Maccabi Healthcare Services in Israel.

About 84% (9,734 of 11,644) of those who tested positive during this period were fully (2-dose) vaccinated. Another 245 were infected with COVID-19 (“breakthrough infections,” or BTI) soon after obtaining the third “booster” shot – which only became available in the last month of the observation period.

The scientists report vaccine efficacy in preventing infection and severe symptoms precipitously declines after the first 2 months, and then it essentially “vanishes” within 6 months after the second shot. So, after just 180 days, a fully vaccinated person is no more protected against COVID  than an unvaccinated person.

Furthermore, the researchers reported there was “no difference in Ct [cycle threshold, or viral load] between vaccinated and unvaccinated infected with Delta,” the most common COVID-19 variant during the June to August period.

Image Source: Levine-Teifenbrun et al., 2021

57.3% of California health workers infected with COVID-19 since March were fully vaccinated

Israel’s vaccine rollout occurred about 1 or 2 months ahead of the vaccination schedule in the United States. Consequently, it wasn’t until July – about 4 months after the 2nd dose – that the vaccines’ effectiveness for the ~80% vaccinated University of California San Diego Health (UCSDH) workers began to rapidly disappear per a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

After the percentage of new cases in fully vaccinated workers averaged between 19 and 33% from March to June, this percentage exploded to 75% in the month of July – right about the time vaccine effectiveness is documented to all but “vanish”.

Image Source: New England Journal of Medicine

With Delta, infectiveness, viral load, transmission is no different for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated

Many have claimed that the vaccines offer lower viral-load protection from COVID-19 and its variants. But a new study (Servellita et al., 2021) reports the fully vaccinated (a) “were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants,” (b) “symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had similar viral loads to unvaccinated infections,” and (c) the transmission of COVID-19 is as efficient for vaccinated infections as it is for the unvaccinated.

Image Source: Servellita et al., 2021

What is going on in Vietnam? Australia?

Something curious is occurring in countries that experienced very low COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths throughout the pre-vaccination stages of the pandemic.

Vietnam reported under 1,500 total cases and just 35 total deaths from March of 2020 to April of 2021. That’s a rate of about 0.09 COVID-19-related deaths per day.

Then a mass vaccination program began in Vietnam in late April (2021). By June, new cases began to percolate. By late August, Vietnam was enduring ~12,000 new cases per day and averaging 409 deaths per day.

Image Source: ourworldindata and  worldometers

Australia was able to escape most of the ravages of COVID-19 for the first year of the pandemic. Then, as in Vietnam, a mass vaccination schedule was implemented and Australia is now experiencing its highest number of new cases per day than at any time during the pandemic.

This wasn’t supposed to happen with vaccine rollouts. So what is going on here?

Image Source: worldometers
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IPCC 6th Climate Report: Who Deleted The Medieval Warm Period? Tracks Lead To University Of Bern

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Science scandal: What follows is an excellent overview of how the Medieval Warm Period was once again disappeared from the latest IPCC climate report.

===========================================

Who Erased The Medieval Warm Period?

Written by: a Die kalte Sonne scientist/IPCC 6th report reviewer
(Translation, edited and subheadings by P. Gosselin)

The latest UN report distorts climate history. The tracks lead to Bern, Switzerland.

In the Middle Ages, it was similarly warm in Switzerland and other parts of Central Europe as it is today. The so-called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) is scientifically well documented in the region: Between 800 and 1300 A.D., many Alpine glaciers shrank dramatically and some were even shorter than today. The tree line shifted upward. Permafrost thawed in high alpine regions that are still firmly in the grip of ice today. Warm temperatures are also clearly evidenced by tree rings, pollen, chironomid fossils, and other geological reconstruction methods.

Controversial temperature curve

It had long been assumed that the medieval warmth might be a regional, North Atlantic phenomenon. However, this has not been confirmed, because the warm phase also occurred in many other regions of the world, for example, on the Antarctic Peninsula, in the Andes, in North America, in the Arctic, in the Mediterranean, in East Africa, China and New Zealand.

Peer-reviewed: Medieval Warm Period global

Together with professional colleagues, we at Die kalte Sonne have evaluated many hundreds of case studies from around the world in recent years and published the syntheses continent by continent in peer-reviewed journals.

Three of the publications have been cited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its recently published 6th Assessment of the Climate report. The medieval warmth was then followed globally by a precipitous drop in temperature. During the Little Ice Age, 1450-1850, the climate cooled to the coldest temperature level of the entire last ten thousand years.

Taping the hockey stick back together

In the new IPCC report, one will unfortunately look for this information in vain. In it one elevates one’s own view of the climate history of the last thousand years. In the summary intended for politicians, a controversial temperature curve is prominently displayed right at the beginning, giving the impression that there were only minimal pre-industrial climate changes in the last two millennia. With the onset of industrialization around 1850, the curve then rockets upward by more than one degree. This mode of representation is also known as the “hockey stick”: The climatically supposedly uneventful pre-industrial period forms the straight shaft of the stick, and at its end, with rapid modern warming, comes the upward blade of the hockey stick. It is therefore a déjà vu, an unnecessary one. The 3rd Assessment of the Climate Report of 2001 already contained a similar field hockey stick pattern, intended to fool politicians into thinking that today’s warming was unprecedented and therefore entirely man-made.

Recent paleoclimatological research confirms Medieval Warm Period

In the last two decades, however, paleoclimatology has made great progress, and data have been diligently collected. From this, more realistic temperature developments were created, with a pronounced Medieval Warm Period and a later Little Ice Age.

All the more bitter now is the relapse into old hockey stick times. How could this happen? What were possible motivations behind the renewed distortion of climate history?

Why back to the hockey stick? PAGES 2k

The questionable new hockey stick temperature curve comes from the international paleoclimatology group PAGES 2k, whose coordinating office is based at the University of Bern in Switzerland. Climate scientist Thomas Stocker, who has contributed to IPCC reports since 1998, also teaches and conducts research at that university. In 2015, Stocker even ran for the overall IPCC chairmanship, but lost to South Korean Hoesung Lee, who just presented the 6th Working Group 1 report. Stocker co-authored the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s 3rd Assessment of the Climate report in which the hockey stick played a prominent role.

Dissent among the PAGES-2k group

A good twenty years later, the resurfaced field hockey stick now comes from Stocker’s university, where he heads the Department of Climate and Environmental Physics. Just a dumb coincidence? There are many indications that the new climate curve may have been a commissioned paper for the 6th IPCC report. Five of the nineteen authors of the papers on the new hockey stick curve are from Bern.

But a significant portion of the PAGES-2k researchers could not technically support the new hockey-stick version and walked out of the group in dispute.

Proof thanks to tree rings

Meanwhile, these dissenting scientists published a competing temperature curve with clear pre-industrial climate changes. Based on tree rings, the specialists were able to prove that summer temperatures had already reached today’s levels several times in the pre-industrial past. But the work of Ulf Büntgen of the ETH Research Institute WSL and colleagues was not included in the IPCC report, although it was published in time for the editorial deadline. Interestingly, the controversial PAGES-2k curve was already included in the first draft of the 6th climate report, although the associated publication had not even formally appeared yet.

How could this be? In the second draft of the Summary for Policymakers, the curve shrank to postage-stamp size, positioned on the edge of a composite larger figure. This was the last version available for comment by the IPCC reviewers, of which a Die kalte Sonne scientist was one of the reviewers. It was all the more surprising, then, when the field hockey stick image suddenly appeared in full size in the final version.

IPCC conceals PAGES-2k controversy

The IPCC concealed from the public the fact that many experts and reviewers consider the curve to be highly problematic. On the one hand, the new hockey stick contains a whole series of outlier data, the use of which is difficult to justify. For example, PAGES-2k integrates a tree-ring dataset from the French Maritime Alps, even though the creators of the original case study explicitly advise against using it for temperature reconstructions. On the other hand, data are omitted that demonstrate strong pre-industrial natural climate variability. Detailed criticisms of this made in the review process of the report and formally published in publications were ignored by the IPCC authors.

That’s how easy it is to rewrite climate history, and hardly anyone notices. Why is this important? Pre-industrial temperature trends are highly relevant to the attribution of modern climate change to man-made factors on the one hand and natural factors on the other.

Since climate models have assigned only negligible natural climate forcings, they can only generate hockey stick patterns. Any real observed pre-industrial warm or cold phase therefore causes problems for the models because they cannot reproduce it. They are designed not to do so from the outset.

Mortally faulty model calibration

This raises uncomfortable questions about their fitness and usability for projecting the future climate. Ultimately, they are uncalibrated simulations that should not be released for future modeling at all, as long as they are still failing on past climate  In other words, if a climate model provides answers to the question of what the past was like that are miles off reality, forecasting the future is likely to be similarly aberrant.

It is particularly peculiar that the climate models of the so-called CMIP6 type that were created specifically for the 6th Climate Report proved to be mostly unusable. Due to cloud modeling errors, they provided temperature histories that were far too hot. Therefore, the IPCC stated that in the current 6th report that it would place more emphasis on the historical temperature development.

Inconvenient issues

However, since this is also – as described – highly controversial, the IPCC is also now virtually flattening its spare tire. In its official press releases, the IPCC largely omits these inconvenient issues. And in most media reports, too, the public hears nothing about them.

Political tactics undermining science

Thus, scientific integrity falls by the wayside. It is only a matter of time before critical climate scientists systematically address the inconsistencies in the filtered IPCC 6th climate report. The incident reveals how political tactics are undermining the IPCC’s scientific integrity and further eroding the trust placed in the institution.

===============================================================
Climate researcher Thomas Stocker declined to comment when asked by WELTWOCHE. This article first appeared in WELTWOCHE Zurich: Die Weltwoche, No. 33 (2021)| 19. August 2021. (Subheadings added by NoTricksZone) 

Also see:
Pages-2k rebuttal
MWP Map
200 Non-Hockey Stick Charts




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Media Claims Of Persistent Summer Droughts Take A Bath, German Summer Precipitation Trend Steady Since 1950

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By Frank Bosse (Die kalte Sonne)

Over the past few summers, the media have been repeatedly tried t sell us an “increasing summer rainfall deficit” as an effect of climate change.

What about precipitation at the end of summer 2021?

Chart: Summer precipitation. Data source German DWD national weather service. Image by Frank Bosse

Since 1950 there is no linear trend of any significance. The 11-year low-pass filtering (thick line) shows supernormal periods in the middle of the 50s, while in the 70s and 80s we had subnormal periods of precipitation. The 2000s saw an upward trend, then downward again from 2010, all with little variation.

In recent years, especially in 2018 and 2019, there was very little rain, but also not so unusual in the time series. Then this past summer (2021), again a lot of rain, 310 mm. It fluctuates like that.

It’s been different with the temperatures, though:

Summer temperatures, Germany. Data: DWD. Chart: Frank Bosse

Here we see a clear increase since the late 80s, the 11-year low-pass filter shows that the linear growth trend originated mainly after that. This year’s summer – at 17.9°C – was again within the scatter range of the many years, but this cannot hide the fact that the warm trend is unbroken. Since 1990, summers have warmed by 1.8°C across Germany, a clear upward trend.

None of this can be observed in precipitation.

So, was it only an opportunistic exploitation of weather fluctuations? It already occurred many times before 1980, even without a stronger man-made climate change, which caused the media hype on the topic of rain and climate. Is it because everything about weather and weather patterns that is possible gets blamed on climate change? That would have been a very bad decision, because people feel they are being taken for a ride that way.

Dear media and “fact finders”: just stop it! You’re making yourselves more and more untrustworthy!




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