The Coldest Temperatures Since the 1960s Responsible For A Rapid Rise In Recent Cold-Weather Deaths

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A new study finds China’s 2016 “cold wave” – a sudden 6°C temperature plunge below the average, sustained over several days – resulted in a dramatic increase in cold-related deaths for a period of 5 weeks.

Since the 1980s, there have been 20 times more deaths attributable to cold weather than to hot weather (Gaspirrini et al., 2015).

In the UK, “daily mortality and weather patterns across nine regions of England…revealed that the population in England is more susceptible to cold weather” than warm weather (Psistaki et al., 2020). For example, there were over 50,000 excess deaths attributed to extremely cold weather during the winter of 2017-2018, the highest totals since 1976 (The Guardian).

Image Source: The Guardian

A new study by Ho et al. (2020) analyzes  the deadly effects of a 2016 “cold wave” – a sustained temperature drop of >6°C below the January average – that deleteriously affected 1.18 billion people in Eastern China over a period of 5 weeks.

Hong Kong, with a subtropical climate, saw temperatures plunge to 3.1°C – the “coldest temperature in the past 59 years”. Taipei experienced cold temperatures that were the “lowest in 44 years”. Weather stations in Yangmingshan, Kinmen, and the Matsu Islands reported “the coldest records since monitoring services first operated”. And subtropical climate cities like Guangzhou experienced their first snow event ever.

Sustained cold weather can lead to a 21% increase in mortality from respiratory illnesses. A 2008 cold wave in subtropical locations in China, for example, led to a 60% increase in non-accidental mortality. During the 2016 Eastern China cold wave, over 9,000 people died from late January to late March (2016) in Hong Kong alone, many from hypothermia and cardiac arrest.

Apparently “global warming” offers little protection from the much more serious consequences of cold weather anomalies.

Image Source: Ho et al. (2020)
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North Germany Cool Summer: Max Daily Temp Finally Reaches 80°F First Time This July

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Germany has been seeing the opposite of the hotly projected “another record hot” summer the media blared on about earlier in May. Instead it’s been pretty cool this month.

Looking at the maximum temperatures reached so far this month at major northern Germany cities, today is the first for many to see readings finally hit the 80°F (27°C) mark.

Looking at the data archives at Kachelmannwetter.com here, we see that Hanover, Germany yesterday (July 18) hit the 27°C mark for the first time this month. July has been so cool that the Lower saxony capital failed to reach the 70°F (21.0°C) mark on 9 of the first 18 days.

Yesterday, Hanover reached the 80°F mark for the first time this month. Image cropped from kachelmannwetter.com.

 On July 8, the temperature at Hanover’s Langenhagen station barely topped 60°F (15.6°C).

Hamburg

The port city of Hamburg has also seen one of its coolest Julys in awhile, with the temperature failing to reach the 80°F mark in July until today, July 19th, which so far has seen a high of 27°C (80.6°F).

On July 9th, the thermometer reached a high of only 14°C!

Fall temperatures in Osnabrück

Also Osnabrück, at the station in Belm, the daily high never reached the 80°F mark in the first 18 days of July, first reaching the summery mark today for the first time this month. Here as well July has seen few summer like days, with the mercury failing to reach 70°F (21.1°C) on 13 of the first 19 days.

More cool weather in the forecast

Though the current weekend has finally reached the warm zone, across northern Germany, things are not forecast to stay warm over the coming week as more cold air is set to move in. https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/wetter/2910831-hannover




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NCEP Analysis: Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Falls 1°C Since February

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Also the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) projects a sturdy Arctic sea ice extent for this July, meaning no falling summer ice extent trend since 2007! The climate alarms are being muffled. 

Snowfan here gives us the latest on global mean temperature and Arctic sea ice.

After the year’s low in June 2020, with an anomaly of +0.48°C from the 1981-2010 WMO climate mean, the global 2-meter temperatures (black line) depicted below shows the July 16, 2020 analysis and forecast up to July 23.

Source: here

Both the anomalies of the global 2-meter temperatures from the WMO mean (black line) and especially the temperatures on the SH (blue line) continue to fall, with the deviations on the SH repeatedly falling below the zero line. This also pulls the global temperatures (black line) down to near zero in the forecast.

But also the temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere (red line) have had a falling trend since the end of February 2020, having since reached a new annual low. There has been no more global warming since 2016. Note: With 81% of the sea surface, the southern hemisphere has the largest energy storage on earth.

Surprise DMI projection

Arctic sea ice trend growth in July 2020?

Source: DMI

A surprising DMI forecast was issued on July 14, 2020 which projects strong growth of Arctic sea ice areas for July 2020. If this expert forecast is correct, it would mean there’s been a strongly positive summer trend since 2007 – instead of the ridiculous Al Gore complete meltdown.




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NASA’s Fudge Factory: Goddard Institute For Space Studies Fudges The Data Again!

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

It’s well known that the United States suffered severe drought and record high temperatures back in the 1930s, which we know resulted in the famous Dust Bowl and economic hardship across North America.

But now, from a climate point of view, that period has become an embarrassment to the scientists who propose the anthropogenic global warming theory. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much lower back then, and so according to their theory,  it should have been cooler than it is today. But it wasn’t.

But instead of questioning CO2’s role in driving global temperature, NASA GISS has decided to just rewrite the historical data so that it fits their flakey theory. This of course is scientific fraud.

Today we examine NASA GISS data for the Wellsboro station in Pennsylvania. First we look at the Version 4 “unadjusted” annual mean temperature data and compare it to the new Version 4 “homogenized” data:

Data: NASA GISS

Above we see how NASA scientists simply went back in the old datasets and simply rewrote them so that the hot years of the early 20th century are cooled tremendously – by over two degrees in many years.

Earlier Wellsboro saw a cooling trend. But now since NASA scientists have fiddled with the data, the trend has been forged to fit the AGW theory.

Next is a chart comparing version 3, which starts in 1883 and ends in 2019, to Version 4, which starts in 1882:


Version 4 data source: NASA GISS, Version 3 here.

The earlier Version 3 also showed cooling before NASA rewrote the data and wiped it out. The current Version 4 used to show cooling, but was that too was tampered with and now it shows strong warming.

Many would argue that this is not science, but outright Orwellian scientific fraud.




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New Study Shows CO2 Changes Lag Decadal-Scale Warming By ~1000 Years In The Northern Hemisphere

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From about 80,000 to 20,000 years ago, Greenland temperatures abruptly warmed by about 10°C in just a few decades on at least 20 occasions. And then, about 870 to 1,500 years later, CO2 rose. 

Li and Born (2019) document 8-16°C climate warmings (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) in Greenland that extended to both hemispheres between about 80 and 20 thousand years ago. (Though global in scope, temperature changes were less pronounced outside Greenland.)

These abrupt warmings occurred within decades (or less). It has been suggested the warm-ups may have required no external forcing, as they’re considered an “unforced oscillation”.

Image Source: Li and Born (2019)

A new study (Shin et al., 2020) suggests the about 1,000 years after these warming events occurred, CO2 concentrations rose.

Despite the millennial-scale duration of this lag relative to the decadal-scale temperature changes, there are many who believe CO2 changes are a driver of warming.

“However, the CO2 decrease did not always start at exactly the same time as the onset of the DO warming, and the lag itself varied. For example, during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, atmospheric CO2 maxima lagged behind abrupt temperature change in Greenland by 870±90 yrs. During MIS 5, the lag of atmospheric CO2 maxima with respect to abrupt temperature warming in the NH was only about 250±190 yrs (Bereiter et al., 2012). … During MIS 6d which corresponds to CDM 6d.1 and 6d.2, CO2 concentrations show a much slower increase over a duration of ~3.3 kyr. Here, CO2 lags behind the onset of the NH abrupt warming by 1,500±280 yrs and 1,300±450 yrs, respectively (1,400± 375 yrs on average).”

Image Source: Shin et al., 2020
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Surprise: North Atlantic Region Has Cooled By Almost 1°C Over Past 120 Years

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By Die kalte Sonne

Atlantic region near Iceland has cooled over the past 120 years. Image: NASA (public domain)

(German text translated by P. Gosselin)

There are areas of the world that stubbornly resist “global warming”. These include an oceanic region near Iceland where sea surface temperatures have cooled by almost 1°C in the last 120 years.

Allan & Allan 2019 have examined the “cold blob” more closely and suspect that the summer ice melt will cause cold melt water to flow into the ocean, which will then lead to the winter cold of the sea area.

The researchers disagree with the model by Stefan Rahmstorf from Potsdam, who suggested a weakening of the Gulf Stream as the cause of the “cold blob”.

Here’s the abstract of Allan & Allan 2019:

Seasonal Changes in the North Atlantic Cold Anomaly: The Influence of Cold Surface Waters From Coastal Greenland and Warming Trends Associated With Variations in Subarctic Sea Ice Cover

Worldwide sea surface temperatures (SST) have increased on average by about 1 °C since 1900 with the exception of a region of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre near 50°N which has cooled by up to 0.9 °C over the same period, generating the negative feature on temperature anomaly maps which has been colloquially described by Rahmstorf et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554) as the “cold blob” (abbreviated here CB). This unique long‐term surface cooling trend is most evident in February, but in August net warming is observed even at CB epicenter and the CB itself is reduced to a mere “warming hole.” These seasonal changes in the intensity of the CB are the product of two separate factors: (1) a long‐term winter cooling specific for the CB region which appears to be associated with cooling of Greenland coastal waters in autumn, plausibly linked to summer meltwater from icebergs and sea ice and (2) summer warming effects which derive from (a) dramatic reduction in summer sea ice cover in the sub‐Arctic over the last 30 years that allows enhanced absorption of sunlight by the new open water in summer and (b) an unusual period of increased summer sub‐Arctic ice cover in the early twentieth century, which lowers the SST baseline measured from 1900, thus increasing the calculated linear rate of change of SST with time. Both of these effects could contribute to the observed Arctic amplification of warming.”




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Climate Models Unable To Show Link Between Arctic Warming And Harsh Mid-Latitude Winters

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Researchers can no longer blame inconvenient cold winters on Arctic warming. No scientific basis, new study shows.

Image: NASA (public domain)

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated by P. Gosselin)

The Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. It’s the so-called Arctic amplification (AA). According to a study by Polvani et al. 2020, half of the Arctic warming is due to ozone-depleting substances – and not CO2. This was of course a great surprise, as we have already reported here. So no wonder that the climate models are going crazy, since they have so far attributed almost the entire warming to CO2.

CO2 has been hopelessly overbooked, as it now turns out.

In Nature Climate Change, a paper by Cohen et al. 2020 has been published and it shakes another myth. In the past, researchers were too happy to tell us that strong Arctic warming leads to harsh winters in mid-latitudes. However, there is a problem: the models are largely unable to reconstruct this presumed relationship: The paper finds:

Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.”




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‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability

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A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases.

Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

Those who try to explain how internal variability affects global surface temperature often use the “Butterfly Effect” paradigm; they assume that small changes now can lead to larger changes decades from now.

Because global temperature trends are “largely determined by internal variability”, global cooling or another warming hiatus could very well be observed over the next decade. Actually, as Maher and colleagues explain, “even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability“.

Image Source: Maher et al., 2020
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Just Use A Mouthwash, Stupid! New British Study Suggests “Oral Rinsing” Effective Against COVID-19 Spread

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Expect this new study to be greeted by an angry mob with pitch forks and torches. Results Big Pharma, Bill Gates and social engineering technocrats don’t want to see. 

So picture this: tens of thousands of scientists, doctors and health authorities worldwide spending billions and billions in a frenzied search for new medicines and vaccines – while imposing economy-crippling lock downs – all to combat the COVID 19 virus. Meanwhile, a large part of the solution is likely just sitting right there on the supermarket shelf – to be had for just a few bucks!

Use a mouthwash, stupid!

That may be just the case, believe it or not, according a a recently published study appearing in the British journal FUNCTION titled: “Potential Role of Oral Rinses Targeting the Viral Lipid Envelope in SARS-CoV-2 Infection“.

It may be that simply gargling regularly in fact goes a long way in combating the spread of COVID-19, and letting us do away with the face mask circus we’ve been going through lately.

Promising results

A team of scientists led by Valerie B O’Donnell reviewed known mechanisms of viral lipid membrane disruption by widely available dental mouthwash components that include ethanol, chlorhexidine, cetylpyridinium chloride, hydrogen peroxide, and povidone-iodine and assessed their potential ability to disrupt the SARS-CoV-2 lipid envelope, based on their concentrations.

 

Figure 1: Breaching the viral envelope. Source: O’Donnell et al 2020.

Direct evidence: “Potential way to reduce transmission”

The preliminary results are promising enough to warrant serious further investigation, the authors say. Moreover, citing already published research on other enveloped viruses, they conclude that several deserve clinical evaluation.

These studies “directly support the idea that oral rinsing should be considered as a potential way to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2,” the authors say.

Mixing science and politics

If this turns out to be so, there are going to be lots of “experts” out there looking awfully silly. But so it is so often when social engineering politics get mixed with science.

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Central Europe Summer Refuses To Make Its Debut, “Permanent Alarmism Dulls The Senses”

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Former Tropical Storm Edouard brings bitter temperature drop to Germany

By
(Translated/edited and image added  by P. Gosselin)

Stupidity clicks well in Germany. Alarmist messages about tropical storm Edouard now running through the Internet on numerous websites have been no better in quality than the earlier reports of an impending summer of heat shocks (The opposite has been true so far this summer).

On the other hand, reports like those by Fabian Ruhnau of Kachelmannwetter are beneficial, which assess former tropical strom Edouard somewhat differently, without neglecting the powerful thunderstorms:

“On Friday, a small, but rather weather-intensive low-pressure system will sweep over Northern Germany. It is ‘formerly EDOUARD’, the low was once a tropical storm, but is now just a normal low. In the run-up to the cold front, hot air reaches the south and southeast, where powerful thunderstorms can form. During the weekend the weather will calm down and get colder again.”

Image cropped from kachelmannwetter.com 

The kneejeck digital excitement and constant alarms are clearly a sign of our times. But a very dangerous one, because permanent alarm dulls the senses.

 

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Junk Journalism: NYT’s Claim “More Torrential Rains” In Japan Takes A Bath, No Basis

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The Kyushu region of Japan has been getting lots of rain lately, which has led to flooding and 62 reported deaths because local officials failed to properly heed warnings to evacuate.

The New York Times, however, blames it all on the “collision” of “demographic change and global warming” instead of incompetence by local authorities.

NYT claims: “More torrential rains”

“In recent years, climate change has spurred more torrential rains in Japan, causing deadly flooding and mudslides in a nation with many rivers and mountains,” reports Motoko Rich of the New York Times (NYT).

Unfortunately the NYT neither provides data nor cites any study showing this to be the case.

So we look at Japan precipitation trends going back decades – something the NYT journalists obviously neglected to do themselves (or they did, but then decided not to bring it up).

JMA data tell a whole different story

Using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japanese blogger Kirye first plotted the annual precipitation anomaly for Japan since 1898:

Data source: here

The plotted data above show how Japan’s precipitation has indeed trended downward somewhat since 1898, and not risen.

The most recent decade in Japan has seen precipitation levels similar to that of the 1950s, and the very early part of the 20th century. Nothing unusual is happening here.

Next we look at the JMA annual precipitation data for Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto Prefecture itself since 1948:

Data source: here

Here we observe very little trend change at all. The recent rainfall in the region over the past decade has been similar to that seen in the 1950s. Extremes are no more intense or frequent today than they were in the past.

No July precipitation trend changes

Going a step further into greater detail, we look at the southern Japan region’s rainfall for July, going back to 1948.

Data source: here

Also the here we have the same story: no major trend changes to speak of. Very wet July months in fact were just as frequent and more intense in 1950s.

Decreasing hot days

Finally we look at the region’s number of days recording a temperature of 30°C or higher.

Data source here

Here as well the REAL trend is in fact bucking what the NYT always likes to suggest: increasingly more hot days because of global warming.

Incompetent authorities after all

Later in the article, Rich does ultimately get around to the real cause of the recent flooding deaths in Kyushu: “The Japanese government issues standardized evacuation protocols, but they do not take into account the unique characteristics or terrain in different parts of the country, said Professor Tsukahara of Kyushu University.”

But all in all, very shoddy journalism here by the New York Times. They would do their readers a service by checking the data instead of lazily repeating old, exaggerated narratives.




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In 2006 The ‘Science’ Of Pandemic Mitigation Was Nearly The Opposite Of What It Is In 2020

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A 2006 peer-reviewed scientific paper (Inglesby et al., 2006) on pandemic mitigation policy said the efficacy of 3-feet social distancing is unknown, surgical masks do little to prevent virus droplet inhalation, and closing schools, restaurants, stores…have seriously adverse community consequences.

The paper refers to what policymakers should recommend if there is an influenza pandemic.

Keep in mind that the flu kills about 500,000 people a year worldwide and there have been some years when it has reached pandemic proportions, killing over a million people (i.e., 1957-’58, 1968-’69).

In 1918 the flu pandemic killed 50 million out of 500 million infections worldwide. At the time, that was one-third of the world’s population.

And yet at no time have we ever responded to a pandemic the way we have with COVID-19.

Image Source: Inglesby et al., 2006
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