Natural Oceanic Cycles Behind Heavy East Australia Rains, New Study Finds

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East Australia got hit by lots of rain in February earlier this year, and the media of course blamed it all on manmade climate change.

Now a new study by Holgate et al (2022) titled “The Impact of Interacting Climate Modes on East Australian Precipitation Moisture Sources” shows East Australia’s rains are directly tied to natural oceanic patterns.

Hat-tip: EIKE.

The paper’s abstract summarizes that east Australia precipitation is driven by multiple interacting climate modes and that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies the supply of evaporative moisture for precipitation and that this is modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and southern annular mode (SAM).

Eastern Australian rainfall moisture supply.

Sources of moisture in eastern Australia. Source: Holgate et al, 2020

The authors describe how La Niña facilitates local precipitation generation whereas El Niños are associated with below average precipitation.

In an article appearing in the academic CONVERSATION here, the authors noted there are climate oscillations at play in the modulation of east Australia rainfall, primarily the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

“Like swings in a character’s mood, each climate mode has positive, negative and neutral phases. Each affect Australia’s weather in different ways,” write the authors. “La Niña brings wetter conditions to eastern Australia. The IOD’s negative phase, and SAM’s positive phase, can also bring more rain.”

In other words, rains and dry periods depend on what the oceanic cycles are doing, and not CO2. Understanding the key natural cycles is key.

However, the authors do go on to claim that extreme La Niña and El Niño events and weather systems “are expected to worsen due to greenhouse gas emissions”, but that is speculative at best. Co2 does not drive ocean cycles and modes.

When “expected” never shows up

We remind that also Atlantic hurricanes too “are expected to worsen due to greenhouse gases”, yet the opposite has in fact been the case over the past decades. Also the Arctic was expected to be ice-free in the summer by now. But that too has not happened and late summer sea ice there has trended upwards moderately over the past 15 years.

Oceans were expected to warm as well, but as Kenneth noted yesterday, that too has not been necessarily the case. New research suggests the bottom half (2 km to the bottom) of the Pacific has been robustly cooling since 1993!

Prof. John Schellnhuber, former director of the PIK Potsdam Institute, also “expected” the Himalayas to lose their glaciers by 2030, yet that was glaringly exposed as a real doozy of a climate bluff as well.

So when it comes to weather extremes and future projections, it’s really important to separate the science from the climate scamming.




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Most Of The Pacific Ocean’s Volume Has Undergone Intensifying Cooling Since 1993

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The Pacific Ocean is 5 to 6 km deep. New research indicates the bottom half (2 km to the bottom) of the Pacific has been robustly cooling since 1993. 

A new preprint details the “surprising” Pacific cooling pattern from two ocean heat content (OHC) datasets over the 1993-2017 period.

Most OHC records only extend to the first 2 km of the ocean. Analyses of trends in the deeper ocean indicate intensified cooling from 2 km to the abyssal waters, or for well more than half the Pacific Ocean’s volume.

Image Source: Liao et al., 2022
The thermal state from 1993–2017 in the lower Pacific Ocean (below 2 km) was investigated using two dynamically-consistent syntheses. We show a robust and bottom-intensified cooling. This Pacific cooling is mainly determined by the meridional heat exchange with the Southern Ocean and the vertical heat advection.”
It is evident that both the deep and abyssal Pacific Oceans experienced an approximately linear cooling from 1993 to 2017 (Fig. 1). The OHC decreased at 4.4±0.4×1020J·yr-1 in the deep ocean and 3.4±0.8×1020J·yr-1 in the abyssal ocean. The uncertainty (shading) was small. This linear decreasing trend of OHC is robust in both datasets (Figs. 1 and S1) and similar to the results in Gebbie and Huybers (2019) in the overlapping period.”
Below 2 km, cooling occurred at almost all the vertical levels, with bottom intensification seen in both ECCO (Fig. 2) and GECCO (Fig. S3). The temperature decreased by about 0.05°C near the bottom but less than 0.01°C at around 2 km. Cooling between 2.3–3.5 km accelerated from around 2011. The vertical profile quantitatively shows an approximate cooling rate of 2.3×10-3°C·yr-1 near the bottom but slower than 0.5×10-3 °C·yr-1 near 2 km. The cooling rate was vertically homogeneous in the deep Pacific Ocean between 2–4 km. Fig. 2b shows that the cooling above 5 km slowed down in 2006–2017 when comparing to 1993–2005, but is almost time-invariant further below. Similarly, GECCO also presents statistically significant cooling in the Pacific Ocean below 2 km (Fig. S3), suggestive of robust Pacific cooling below 2 km.”

Another recent study (Gebbie and Huybers, 2019) also reported the deeper ocean cooling has been ongoing throughout the modern period in the Pacific, and it has only modestly changed course (from cooling to warming) in the Atlantic in the last century. The Medieval Warm Period was considerably warmer than modern at these depths.

Image Source: Gebbie and Huybers, 2019
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Good News: 2022 Hurricane Season Mild. Bad News: Pressure Pattern Threatens Europe With Hell Winter

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First the good news (and then the bad news below)

This year’s hurricane season has been unusually quiet. The USA has gotten off easy so far in terms of landfalls and damage, thus once again contradicting all the doomsday scenarios from the climate alarmists.

Mid September is usually the peak of hurricane activity. But right now it’s quiet and there are no threats to the US mainland – for the time being. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):


Another one goes out to sea. Image cropped from the NHC.

Currently only hurricane Fiona is active in the Atlantic, and it is projected to go out to sea hundreds of miles away from the east coast and fizzle out. It’s been a quiet season.

According to Eric Berger at arstechnica.com here:

Everyone from the US agency devoted to studying weather, oceans, and the atmosphere—the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration—to the most highly regarded hurricane professionals predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity.

For example, NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season…”

Even with today’s super powerful computers and sophisticated models, accurate seasonal predictions are still proving elusive. This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses.

Arstechnica.com here sums up the state of seasonal hurricane forecasting:

Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While it is typically more right than wrong, predicting specific weather patterns such as hurricanes months in advance is far from an established science.”

Now the bad news: 2022 hurricane season “not over by a long shot”

Concerning the remainder of the 2022 season, veteran meteorologist Joes Bastardi says at yesterday’s Saturday Summary video that there are signs out there things are going to start cooking over the next 15 days: “It’s a late starting season. It’s not over by a long shot.”

Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis

On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.

However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.

“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”

Normally a hard winter would be no problem for Europe in normal times, but times are far from normal nowadays as ideological Green New Deal politicians have done a great job at wrecking the continent’s energy supply system and so leaving tens of millions of people extremely vulnerable.

Europeans need to start preparing for an autumn and/or winter blackout. Note that a blackout means not only the power goes out, but so do the heat, lights, communication, Internet and potentially the water supply along with it – for days! Don’t wait and pretend it can’t happen. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.




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Power Grid Expert: “99.9% Chance” Germany Will See Blackout… “Civil War” Unless People Prepare

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A German electrical engineer, power grid expert, warns of 99.9% chance of power blackout…”civil war” if people don’t prepare…describes horror scene. 

Plundering, unhindered crime, mayhem…raw survival 

Online Bild TV interviewed Robert Jungnischke, an “expert on blackouts” to discuss the probability of a major blackout hitting Germany over the coming fall and winter months. The talk round was titled: “Our grid is collapsing!”

As Germany’s energy crisis escalates due to the abysmally failed energy policies enacted over the past 25 years, the power grid has become increasingly unstable. Electricity prices have skyrocketed. Now Germans are becoming increasingly worried of wintertime blackouts and the possible chaos that could ensue. How realistic is the scenario?

Blackouts are not the same as power outages, which are localized, says Jungnischke. Blackouts hit an entire region or country, and lead to the shutdown of critical infrastructure like communication, refrigeration, heating, Internet, emergency services and transport.

In the talk round with Bild, when asked, “How probable is it that it will come to a Blackout? Jungnischke answers: “99.9%”!

“Everyone is expecting it,” Jungnischke adds.

Jungnischke strongly advises citizens to start preparing themselves now. “What happens here in a city like Berlin when people don’t prepare? After 2 days, we get a civil war.”

5 days to free (dead) people from elevators

Germany’s power situation is so precarious that Junghischke even advises people to no longer use elevators in buildings, and to take the stairs instead because the risk of the power going out and getting trapped is too high. In a blackout: “When we calculate for Berlin, it’s been checked. You need five days to free people from the elevators. As I said, all the emergency services are hit, there’s no communication! That means that by the time you free the people, most of them are dead!”

Currently Berlin’s police department is in fact already drilling and preparing for a blackout. Other municipalities are urgently telling citizens to stock up on provisions. This means the probability is not low, even if you don’t believe the Junghischke’s 99.9% figure like the CDU politician in the talk round does.

Jungnischke says that in the event of a blackout, it’ll take weeks and months to get things back to normal, so he advises stocking up on food, water, cash and medicine. ATMs will be out of order.

===============

Author’s message: I’ll be taking the stairs from now on, but in case you continue to take elevators, maybe this video can give you some survival tips (sorry it’s not in English):




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Blackout News Friday: Germany, Europe Teeter On The Economic Brink As Energy Crisis Intensifies

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The Green New Deal in Europe is quickly turning into a House of Horrors

One excellent site with all the late latest energy crisis developments in Germany and Europe is Blackout News here. Here are some of the more notable headlines of the past week:

Europe’s largest aluminum plant cuts production by 22% due to energy costs

Deindustrialization

Europe’s largest aluminum smelter, Aluminum Dunkerque Industries France, will cut production by 22% due to rising electricity prices, thus putting the industry’s existence at risk and increasing Europe’s dependency on foreign suppliers.

High energy prices: Municipal utilities running into payment difficulties

Struggling utilities

German municipal utilities, who supply gas and power to their communities, are running into liquidity problems as suppliers of electricity and gas demand large sums as security guarantees before deliveries. Around 200 of the 900 German municipal utilities are affected.

The municipal utilities also “have to reckon with payment defaults by their customers on an unprecedented scale. Consumers have to cope with price increases of over 50% in some cases, which many will not be able to cope with”

Eight to 15% of consumers are expected to not to be able to pay.

It’s a serious danger signal because if they get into trouble, an economic crisis is usually not far away.

Exploding energy costs: economists sound the alarm

Hostile business environment in Germany

The German economy is reeling from exploding energy costs as insolvencies escalate and even once robust companies collapse. A number of industrial companies have imposed production stops or drastically reduced production – because of the skyrocketing energy costs. BDI industry association president Siegfried Russwurm warns that the spiraling  energy prices are driving companies away.

In the latest BDI survey, 90% of all companies are severely challenged by the sharp rise in energy and raw material prices. In February 2022, the figure was just 23%.

France plans rolling blackouts this coming winter

Extreme power shortages in France

France normally generates a good 70 percent of its electricity from nuclear power plants but its power supply is massively at risk as 24 of the 56 reactors are off the grid due to repairs and maintenance.  The country is now planning rolling blackouts should there be corresponding supply problems.

French utility RTE reports “it is clear that the country will not be able to produce enough electricity during the winter months unless consumers drastically reduce their power consumption.” As a result, the utility expects there may be rolling blackouts during the winter.

==========================

If this keeps up, Europe might quickly turn into a continent of starving and freezing beggars. Watch for Europe to be looking at a new Enabling Act.

Willkommen and bienvenue! Welcome to the Green New Deal!




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It’s Official: The South China Sea Has Not Warmed In The Last 40 Years

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Yet another new study documents the lack of regional cooperation with the “global” warming narrative.

Since 1979 there has been no net warming in the South China Sea and no evidence of a hiatus or “growth discontinuity” in this region’s coral development (Tan et al., 2022). Natural ENSO variation leads changes in the sea surface temperature by about 5-6 months.

Image Source: Tan et al., 2022

Other recent South China Sea (SCS) studies also find temperature records that do not align with the narrative that humans drive sea surface temperature variations.

Liao et al. (2020) report cooling by 2-3°C in recent decades (“from 19.3°C to 16.5°C after 1982 AD”) relative to the mid-20th century.

Image Source: Liao et al., 2020

Jiang et al. (2021) also report no net warming in the northern SCS since 1979. They suggest El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) variability have been driving sea surface temperature changes in the SCS since Medieval times, and “internal dynamics of the climate system play a prominent role in modulating ENSO variability.”

Image Source: Jiang et al., 2021

And for a longer-term perspective, Zhou and colleagues (2022) report the SCS was several degrees warmer than today throughout all of the last 6000 years, as the 1994-2004 temperatures (the green square in the chart below) are the coldest of the Holocene.

Image Source: Zhou et al., 2022
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Top German Virologist, Hendrik Streeck, “Does NOT Want To Be Vaccinated Against Corona Again!

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All the health woes surrounding the mRNA Covid vaccines and broken promises are leading people to become more wary of getting regularly injected.

Now leading German virologist Hendrick Streeck has openly come out and said he will not being getting a fourth shot. Bild online daily reports:

He has decided AGAINST it: Hendrik Streeck (45), virologist at the University Hospital in Bonn and member of the government’s expert council. Even if the infection figures should rise in the fall, Streeck does NOT want to be vaccinated against Corona again.”

CDC, FDA skip all human safety trials 

Meanwhile, on August 31, 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized the new mRNA COVID boosters, but  didn’t even allow members of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) to meet, discuss or vote on the matter.

Pfizer’s new booster is a bivalent injection targeting Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, and was tested on a total of eight mice, which were then only checked for antibody levels, which in turn says nothing about how well a person is protected against infection or serious illness.

So it’s little wonder, then, that experts like Streeck have lost their enthusiasm and are backing off from getting the injections.

And recently in a roundtable discussion, sociologist Toby Rogers made the following points on the rush authorization:

  • The FDA “didn’t even allow the advisory committee to meet”. “They just skipped that altogether.”
  • “COVID-19 shots are the most dangerous medical products in human history.”
  • “The shots don’t work; they cause catastrophic harm.”
  • “It’s a clown show. These people are clowns. They are not serious scientists. They are not men and women of science, and they don’t care about the health and wellbeing of the public. It’s outrageous.”
  • Despite all the deaths, serious injuries and miscarriages, the reformulated shots are being rolled out in a hurry, without any quality control and safety testing.
  • “So, to put it simply, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the vaccinated.”
  • “Only 3% of parents of kids under 5 have been dumb enough for their kids because their kids are not at risk.”

Large number of Americans will reject further vaccination

Rogers adds:

I think the American people do not like being experimented on by their government, and I think the American people are going to reject these shots and most of these 171 million doses that the Biden Administration foolishly bought will end up going into the trash because they are unused.”

See entire roundtable at Rumble.




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Rescued 66,000 Sheets Of Real UK Rainfall Observations Refute Alarmist Claims Of More Drought

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United Kingdom rainfall has been increasing over the past two centuries. 

Europe saw a dry summer this year and global climate alarmists claimed that droughts are becoming more and more frequent. This is the new normal, they like to claim.

However, a treasure of hard data refute this completely. A recent paper by Hawkins et al published by the Royal Meteorological Society delivers astonishing results tabulated from old, meticulously hand-written observations going back over 300 years.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne here.

What follows is the paper’s abstract. The key statements are emphasized:

Recovering additional historical weather observations from known archival sources will improve the understanding of how the climate is changing and enable detailed examination of unusual events within the historical record.

The UK National Meteorological Archive recently scanned more than 66,000 paper sheets containing 5.28 million hand-written monthly rainfall observations taken across the UK and Ireland between 1677 and 1960.

Only a small fraction of these observations were previously digitally available for climate scientists to analyse. More than 16,000 volunteer citizen scientists completed the transcription of these sheets of observations during early 2020 using the RainfallRescue.org website, built using the Zooniverse platform. A total of 3.34 million observations from more than 6000 locations have so far been quality controlled and made openly available. This has increased the total number of monthly rainfall observations that are available for this time period and region by a factor of six. The newly rescued observations will enable longer and much improved reconstructions of past variations in rainfall across the British and Irish Isles, including for periods of significant flooding and drought. Specifically, this data should allow the official gridded monthly rainfall reconstructions for the UK to be extended back to 1836, and even earlier for some regions.”

It is truly stunning that such a volume of precious data would go ignored for so long by research institutes that are publicly funded to the tune of tens millions of dollars annually to reconstruct historical climate.

Now that it has taken 16,000 volunteers to come in and do this work, we have since gained a much clearer picture of the UK’s past climate. Some of the results are interesting, if not surprising, especially in terms of all the doomsday drought claims having been made lately.

The driest year on record didn’t happen recently, but in the year 1855. Moreover, as the chart above shows, the trend has been wetter, and not drier. Rainfall has averaged 10% more than recently then in the mid 19thcentury.

The dry years seen since 1950 turn out to be nothing out of the ordinary.




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Net Benefit: Rising CO2 Improves Essential Crop Yields 3% Per Year – Critical to Feeding The World

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The elevated CO2 fertilization effect is driving global greening trends, pushing back deserts, enhancing photosynthesis by 30 to 50%, improving water use efficiency, and boosting crop yields by about 3% every year since 1961. 

Recently atmospheric CO2 has been rising at a rate of about 3 ppm per year. While activists claim this is an existential problem for the climate, there will be a critical need for food production as the world population grows by another billion in the coming decades.

The good news heralded by a new study finds gross primary production increased by over 30% over the 2oth century, and the global maize, rice, soybean, wheat yields have increased by ~3% per year since 1961.

There are 2 main reasons for the rapid increase in crop yields in recent decades: “technological progress and CO2 fertilization” (Altimonti et al., 2022). Likewise, the root of the modern global greening phenomenon “pushing back deserts around the world” and improving water-use efficiency is “the increase of atmospheric CO2.”

Image Source: Alimonti et al., 2022

Another new study documents a 30 to 50% increase in photosynthesis with elevated CO2 (eCO2, 451 to 720 ppm) and a ~25% increase in crop yield. The authors cite results indicating grain yield may increase 54% when CO2 concentrations rise from 400 to 700 ppm. In the study the highest temperatures (21-25°C) were associated with the best yields, whereas the lowest temperatures (<15°C) were linked to the worst yields.

Image Source: Gardi et al., 2022

Gardi et al., 2022

An increase in atmospheric CO2 generally exerts beneficial effects on plant biomass by increasing net photosynthesis by 30 to 50% and reducing photorespiration (Drake et al. 1997; Poorter and Navas 2003; Schapendonk et al. 2000). This has been studied for cereals including barley, wheat, rice, oat, and rye (Conroyac et al. 1994; Kimball et al. 2002; Long et al. 2006). For instance, in a meta-analysis comprising 79 crops and wild species, Jablonski et al. (2002) documented an increase in yield of 28% averaged across crops and wild species due to elevated CO2 (eCO2). A climate chamber experiment with 700 ppm CO2 on barley reported an increment of grain yield by 54% compared to 400 ppm (Alemayehu et al. 2014), while 47% enhancement of grain yield averaged across two genotypes was reported by Schmid et al. (2016) under eCO2 level of 550 ppm. Moreover, Manderscheid and Weigel (2006) evaluated the effects of eCO2 on barley using Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) at 550 ppm, and obtained yield increases of 7 and 15% under the combination of eCO2 with low and high N supply respectively.”
CO2 enrichment increased aboveground biomass (23.8%), grain number (24.8%), and grain yield (27.4%). The magnitude of the responses to eCO2 was affected by genotype, temperature, nitrogen, and CO2 exposure methods. Genotype “Anakin” shows the highest CO2 response of aboveground biomass (47.1%), while “Bambina” had the highest grain number (58.4%). Grain yield response was observed to be higher for genotypes “Alexis” (38.1%) and “Atem” (33.7%) under eCO2. The increase of aboveground biomass and grain yield was higher when plants were grown under eCO2 in combination with higher N (151–200 kg ha−1). The interaction between eCO2 and three different temperature levels was analyzed to identify the impacts on barley yield components. The results revealed that the CO2-induced increase in grain number and grain yield was higher in combination with a temperature level of 21–25 °C as compared to lower levels (< 15 and 16–20 ).”

Another just-published study indicates “wheat yields could be enhanced while crop water use is reduced because of climate change” in the coming decades. Wheat yields dramatically improve in tandem with increases in human CO2 emissions, increasing by 23%, 29%, and 54% for the lowest to highest emissions scenarios, respectively.

Govere et al., 2022

“Climate change is a major concern in wheat agroecosystems as it can affect productivity and crop water use. This study used the AquaCrop model to evaluate climate change impacts on the wheat yield, crop water use and water footprint of wheat production in the Middle-Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe. Climate scenarios were based on simulations from the NCC-NorESM1-M, CCCma-CanESM2 and MOHCHadGEM2-ES General Climate Models downscaled using three Regional Climate Models (RCA4, RegCM4 and CRCM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that, compared to the baseline climate (1980–2010), yield may increase by 22.60, 29.47 27.80, and 53.85% for the RCP4.5 2040 s, RCP4.5 2080 s, RCP8.5 2040 s and RCP8.5 2080 s scenarios, respectively. Crop water use may decrease by 1.68, 1.25, 3.7 and 6.47%, respectively, under the four scenarios, respectively. Consequently, the blue water footprint may decrease by 19, 23, 24 and 38%, respectively, under the four scenarios. Sensitivity analysis attributed the increase in yields and the decrease in crop water use to the CO2 fertilization effect, which had a dominant effect over high-temperature effects. The results suggest that future wheat yields could be enhanced while crop water use is reduced because of climate change.”

Scientists affirm there is “undoubtedly a ‘fertilization effect of CO2′” in improving the growth and yield of fruit trees (Fischer et al., 2022). Plants grow 30% faster with 600-750 ppm CO2, and “1,000 ppm of CO2 will be optimal for the photosynthesis of various plant species”.

Fischer et al., 2022

“Generally, elevated CO2 (e-CO2) positively affected fruit trees, such as increased photosynthesis, efficient use of water, growth, and biomass. Therefore, in many cases, the yield and the quality of fruits also increased. With an e-CO2 of 600-750 ppm, most C3 plants will grow 30 % faster. A total of 1,000 ppm of CO2 will be optimal for the photosynthesis of various plant species. Fruit trees typically grown in Colombia, such as citrus, grapevines, strawberry, papaya, and pitaya, would benefit from these positive effects, as e-CO2 alleviates stress due to drought and waterlogging. However, the increased growth of fruit trees due to e-CO2 requires more nutrients and water. Thus, selecting genotypes that benefit from e-CO2 and have high efficiency in using nitrogen and water is very important. Ideally, they must have a high sink strength to avoid the accumulation of carbohydrates in the chloroplast. The authors conclude that there is undoubtedly a “fertilization effect of CO2” on fruit species that increases with the advance of climate change. Still, much research is lacking for fruit species compared to many other crops. Hence, future studies are required to measure the direct effects of atmospheric e-CO2 and its interactions with environmental variables such as rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, and nutrient availability.”
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Wave Of German Insolvencies Picks Up Speed…”Tenfold Increase In Gas, Electricity Prices”

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As Germany’s electricity and natural gas prices soar, a wave of companies – some having a long tradition – are filing insolvency. Many midsize companies rely on natural gas as a source of energy, but prices have multiplied since early this year.

Blackout News here reports toilet paper maker Hakle has filed for insolvency, citing “increased energy costs”.

“Tenfold increase in gas and electricity prices”

Others include shoe retailer Görtz, who cite low sales as consumers cut back on their discretionary spending, and automobile supplier Dr. Schneider. Steel producer ArcelorMittal in Hamburg und Bremen are also following.

“With a tenfold increase in gas and electricity prices, which we had to accept within a few months, we are no longer competitive in a market that is 25% supplied by imports. We see an urgent need for political action to get energy prices under control immediately,” said Reiner Blaschek, CEO of ArcelorMittal Germany (Financial Market World).

Another industry sector facing extreme hardship is the bakery industry, which relies heavily of affordable energy. According to Blackout News: “For bakeries, the energy crisis is now worse than the Corona pandemic, according to industry sources. ‘We have the problem as a micro baker that we have to adjust our prices to the raw material and energy prices, of course, which also burdens the customer, if he is also a bit tighter on cash,’ says an affected baker from Heilbronn.”

One baker in our local area has seen his monthly gas bills go from 3000 euros earlier this year to 11,000 euros!

“Severe and long-lasting recession”

The wave of insolvencies has just begun, and is “picking up speed”, writes Blackout News. “What we are seeing now is just the tip of an iceberg. Increased energy prices are affecting all industries, whether directly, as in the case of steel mills and bakeries, or indirectly, as in the case of shoe retailer Görtz. If politicians do not take countermeasures here, Germany will fall into a severe and long-lasting recession, with mass unemployment and a massive loss of prosperity.”




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Germany’s Spiraling Green Energy Catastrophe: “6 Million Jobs At Risk”…”A National Emergency”

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Prof. of Chemistry and energy expert Fritz Vahrenholt interviewed Milena Preradovic in her Punkt.PRERADOVIC podcast.

Hat-tip: EIKE

Currently Germany’s energy supply is crashing to pieces as costs skyrocket. Companies are closing and consumers are reeling from double digit inflation. Mass unrest threatens this winter. Those responsible for the mess are trying to blame Russia for all the woes.

But Fritz Vahrenholt makes it clear in the interview who is to blame: government incompetence.

Preradovic: “Is Putin’s war really to blame for Germany’s energy disaster?”

No, says chemist, politician, manager, author and energy expert Prof. Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt:

The failed transition to green energies is responsible.”

Vahrenholt warns:

If it continues like this, energy prices will never again fall to normal levels.”

Vahrenholt fears the decline of Germany as an industrial nation. The former environmental senator of Hamburg of the SPD socialists, calls for keeping nuclear power plants running and also getting back to coal.

There is already a technology for green coal, but nobody wants to know about it.”

In the interview, Vahrenholt also says the government could very well take steps to bring down the country’s spiraling energy costs, but it refuses to do so, and so Germany is quickly losing its competitiveness and businesses are throwing in the towel.

Vahrenholt said that the dirty secret behind green energies was reliance on Russian gas to meet demand whenever wind and sun failed to show up. That model was put into place with the support of almost every German political party over the past decades.

“Everyone knows that for every additional wind turbine needs back-up by a conventional energy source as long as there is no energy storage available,” says Vahrenholt, and reminds listeners that hydrogen currently is three to four times more expensive due to energy loss in the many conversion stages involved in using the energy. “We lose about 75% of the energy.” Not an option.

6 million jobs on the brink

On Germany’s rising electricity and gas prices, Vahrenholt issues a dire warming. “If we continue to push up electricity costs, then we are not going to be competitive any longer. We’re going to lose the raw materials industry if we continue on this path.”…”We are playing with 6 million jobs.”

“I fear, in any case, that the pressure will have to be much higher, the damage much greater, before there’s an awakening in Germany,” says Vahrenholt.”

Willful destruction

When asked if the destruction of the industry is willful, Vahrenholt says: “Yes, I believe this is being bought cheaply as acceptable. the loss of industry.” He adds, that it is unbelievable how Germany’s Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck (Green Party), is accepting the dire consequences of this misguided and destructive energy  policy. “Olaf Scholz has to bring his Economics Minister back in line!”

The spiraling energy costs situation is so dramatic that Vahrenholt calls it “a national emergency”.




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Pre-1970s ‘Global’ Sea Surface Temp Measurements Are No More Reliable Or Accurate Than Guessing

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The accuracy of the long-term global instrumental temperature record – especially the data obtained before the 1970s – wholly rests on the assumption that sailors obtained precisely reliable temperature measurements as they pulled wooden or canvas buckets out of the water from ships at random depths, locations, and times of day. They didn’t.

It has long been known that pulling a bucket out of the water from a ship is rooted in serious error, rendering the sea surface temperature (SST) data obtained nearly useless. Ashford (1948) summarized some of the more salient reliability problems with this method of measurement.

• The initial temperature of the bucket is generally different from that of the sea.

• The water in the bucket may change its temperature before the reading is taken owing to the processes of heat exchange and evaporation.

• The initial temperature of the thermometer is generally different from that of the sample.

• The thermometer is liable to scale errors.

• Owing to thermal lag, the thermometer may take an appreciable time to indicate the true temperature of the sample.

• If the thermometer is removed from the bucket when taking the reading, it may no longer indicate the true water temperature.

• The temperature may be read incorrectly.

Image Source: Ashford, 1948

Pervasive systematic observational errors

There are “pervasive systematic observational errors” associated with using buckets that “affect the whole observational system and change over time” (Kennedy, 2014). The data collection errors in even one measurement from one location are much larger than the alleged long-term tenths-of-a-degree “global” SST changes over decades.

“A single SST measurement from a ship has typical combined random and systematic error uncertainty of around 1 K to 1.5 K.”

Image Source: Kennedy, 2014

Depth sampling errors

In the ocean, water temperature varies by multiple degrees according to depth, as there are “measurable temperature gradients within the depth range of ship SST measurements” (Kennedy, 2014). The temperature at 1 meter depth could be 2°C warmer than the temperature at 10 meters. There was no uniform systematic method governing how deep the buckets needed to be as they were lowered into the ocean.

When pulling the bucket out of the water, there was no way to isolate a specific depth measurement anyway, as it was all mixed together as the bucket was lifted to the surface. To control for depth variations, sailors would have needed to regularly measure near-surface waters at a range of depths at specific times of the day and evening. They didn’t do this, of course.

Image Source: Kennedy, 2014

Diurnal variation errors

Over the span of just 10 to 12 hours the temperature of near-surface sea water can vary by 5°C (Kawai and Wada, 2007) due to the degree of sunshine duration and intensity (clear-sky vs. overcast). In tropical locations, SSTs can change by as much as 8°C within hours, depending on the time of day (Randall et al., 2020).

Therefore, to accurately record SST measurements requires obtaining maximum and minimum temperature readings. This would mean sailors needed to be lowering buckets into the water at uniform and standardized times of the day, or perpetually measuring temperatures throughout the day and night to control for diurnal variability. They didn’t do this, of course.

Image Source: Kawai and Wada, 2007

Image Source: Randall et al., 2020

“Largely missing” observational coverage means modeled extrapolations are needed

Perhaps the most underreported problem with obtaining reliable SST measurements prior to recent decades has been the ridiculously non-global nature of the coverage. Most pre-1970s SST measurements came from coastal waters in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans.

Per Folland and Parker (1995), there has long been “sparse coverage of the Pacific,” and “even in recent decades [1970s and 1980s], the Southern Ocean south of 45°S is largely missing.” If we have “largely missing” SST data from 45°S to the coasts of Antarctica up until the 1980s, we effectively cannot say we have a pre-1980s global temperature record, as this represents nearly 20% of the Earth’s surface.

And because the coverage is so poor, the utilization of modeled interpolations of what the SSTs might have been has become the accepted standard in temperature derivation.

In 5° grid boxes, for example, monthly anomalies have been found to be “differing by more than 2.25 degC from the averages of surrounding values,” and “biases occasionally exceed 1 degC in individual months” (Folland and Parker, 1995). Consequently, the anomalies are “replaced by values interpolated from surrounding squares and from adjacent months.”

So they’re not actual measurements of SST, but interpolations of what they might have been using modeled assumptions.

Image Source: Folland and Parker, 1995

NOAA’s Thomas Karl experienced some notoriety a few years ago as the author of a “pause-buster” paper because he replaced buoy data (that showed little warming) with “unreliable data from ship intakes” so as to eliminate the problematic global warming hiatus.

But back in 1989, Karl not only reported there had been no global warming from 1921 to 1979, but that there are “large geographic areas of the oceans that have not been adequately sampled” (Karl et al., 1989), especially the tropical Pacific and south of 40°S.

Specifically, for every year from about 1850 to 1950, under 10% of the global ocean’s 2° grid boxes averaged 10 or more sea surface observations (from pulling buckets out of the water) per month. That’s the extent of the instrumental “global” record for 71% of the Earth’s surface.

Image Source: Karl et al., 1989

Given the pervasive systematic errors, depth temperature variability, diurnal temperature variability, need for modeled interpolations, and shamefully poor non-global sampling coverage associated with sailors pulling buckets out of the water at random times of the day or night in the derivation of a “global” sea surface temperature record, it’s not surprising that temperature data set overseers privately admit to one another that SST data are “mostly made up.”

Image Source: FOIAe-mail #2729
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