Exchange Of Arctic Research Crew Gets Delayed As Supply Ice Breaker Blocked By Unexpected “Dense Sea Ice”

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Lately we’ve been hearing reports of how Arctic sea ice has (unexpectedly) reached normal levels this winter. This is a bit of good news which the media avoid mentioning.

But the resurgence of Arctic ice has hardly been good news for global warming alarmists, and especially for the 300 crew members of German high-tech research vessel Polarstern of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), now currently on expedition in the mid Arctic.

Exchange of Polarstern research vessel crew will have to sit tight as Russian supply ice breaker gets held up. Image:  Alfred Wegener Institute. 

Yesterday NDR German public broadcasting reported that it appears the Polarstern’s crew will have to sit tight for awhile longer because a Russian ice breaker for exchanging the crew has had too much difficulty breaking its way through the ice to the research vessel. The sea ice is thicker than anticipated.

The NDR reports: “There are problems with the Arctic expedition of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven. The crew on the research vessel ‘Polarstern’ have to stay on site longer than expected.”

“Dense ice”

The problem is that the Russian supply icebreaker became bogged in “the dense sea ice of the Arctic” and now “is making little progress”. The ice has been too thick for the Russian ice breaker to make its way as planned.

The Polarstern research vessel of the AWI MOSAiC expedition departed mainland Europe last September and has since lodged itself in the middle of the Arctic ice through the winter as part of an Arctic research expedition. It will return back to its home-port of Bremerhaven in early October of this year.

The “MOSAiC” expedition is one of the largest Arctic expeditions ever with scientists from 20 nations studying “the climate processes of the central Arctic”. The crew of 300 on board the Polarstern is supplied and exchanged at about every three months by “an international fleet of icebreakers, helicopters and aircraft,” Radio Bremen reported.

Thick ice caused breaker to run out of fuel

Just recently Russian supply ice breaker “Captain Dranitsyn” was headed over to carry out a scheduled “crew exchange” but ended up consuming too much fuel trying to break through the “up to 160 centimeters thick” sea ice, Radio Bremen reported. Now the supply icebreaker “no longer has enough fuel for the return trip because of the high energy consumption in the ice.”

There were “few open or thin spots,” one official explained.

“According to a spokesperson, the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven is now looking for solutions, and several options already prepared for such situations are being examined,” writes Radio Bremen.

The cost of the Polarstern MOSAiC expedition is 160 million euros.

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Number Of Studies Show Glaciers Internationally Were Smaller In Recent Past Than Today!

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Former Iceland Prime Minister fed up with climate tourism: Glaciers used to be smaller than today

By Die kalte Sonne
[German text translated by P. Gosselin]

Many glaciers are currently shrinking, as they have always done in the past when the climate warmed up. What’s the news on the glacier front?

In August 2019, the Okjokull Glacier disappeared in Iceland with great media attention. The BBC reported:

Climate change: Iceland holds funeral for melted glacier

The glacier called Okjokull, is the first in the country to be lost to climate change, after the warmest July ever on record. Iceland loses about 11 billion tonnes of ice per year, and scientists have warned that there are about 400 other glaciers also at risk. They fear all of the island’s glaciers will be gone by 2200. Glaciers cover about 11% of Iceland’s surface.”

Read more at the BBC.

However, the glacier had not formed until the Little Ice Age. See our article “The cycle is full: death of an Icelandic glacier that did not exist even during the Medieval Warm Period“. Iceland’s prime minister from 2013-2016, David Gunnlaugsson, dislikes activism. In The Spectator, Gunnlaugsson wrote on November 23, 2019:

Iceland’s melting glaciers are nothing to panic about

It is a spectacle we have witnessed since the country’s first settlers arrived in the ninth century […] My home country is a young country; it was first settled just over 1,000 years ago. As a result, it offers unique insight into the relationship between man and nature, albeit not in the way commonly presented in the media. Take Iceland’s melting glaciers. Troubling as a calving glacier might seem, such a phenomenon is by no means out of the ordinary. In fact, this process defines a glacier: they move. Glaciers shed ice at their edges as ice builds up closer to the centre. It is a spectacle we have witnessed in Iceland since the first settlers arrived in the ninth century. […] In 1901, it measured 38 sq km in size; in 1978, it was just three sq km. So the glacier that had its last rites read in August had, in fact, more or less disappeared half a century ago. That might still seem to be a sad fate for a glacier that had only reached the age of 700. But some of Iceland’s glaciers are now considerably larger than when the country was first settled over a millennia ago. Iceland’s glaciers reached their peak around 1890. When the glaciers were expanding, laying waste to what had previously been green meadows and farmlands, the people who lost their homes would hardly have been grief-stricken by the thought that one day that trend might be reversed.”

Read more at The Spectator

Next we move on to the Alps. There man-made soot has contributed to the melting of the glaciers. However, the Alpine glaciers began to melt even before the massive influx of soot, Sigl et al. found in 2018. Soot influx did not begin until around 1875, when 80% of the glacier melt of the 19th century had already been completed. Abstract:

19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers

Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their presence in ambient air and snow changes the radiative properties of these systems, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time.

Starting around AD 1860, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19th century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. The basis for this hypothesis was model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps.

Here we present sub-annually resolved concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti ice core in the Alps from AD 1741 to 2015. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19th century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in AD 1875, the time when rBC ice-core concentrations started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80 % of their total 19th century length reduction, casting doubt on a leading role for soot in terminating of the Little Ice Age. Attribution of glacial retreat requires expansion of the spatial network and sampling density of high alpine ice cores to balance potential biasing effects arising from transport, deposition, and snow conservation in individual ice-core records.”

Also a glacier history of the Alps since the end of the last ice age was published in 2009 by Susan Ivy-Ochs and colleagues. Between 10,500-3300 years before today, glaciers were mostly smaller than today and ended 200 meters above modern levels. The Alpine glaciers expanded during the cold period of migration and the Little Ice Age.

Want to know more about glacier history? Here’s the abstract:

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier variations in the European Alps

In the Alps, climatic conditions reflected in glacier and rock glacier activity in the earliest Holocene show a strong affinity to conditions in the latest Pleistocene (Younger Dryas). Glacier advances in the Alps related to Younger Dryas cooling led to the deposition of Egesen stadial moraines. Egesen stadial moraines can be divided into three or in some cases even more phases (sub-stadials). Moraines of the earliest and most extended advance, the Egesen maximum, stabilized at 12.2 ± 1.0 ka based on 10Be exposure dating at the Schönferwall (Tyrol, Austria) and the Julier Pass-outer moraine (Switzerland). Final stabilization of moraines at the end of the Egesen stadial was at 11.3 ± 0.9 ka as shown by 10Be data from four sites across the Alps. From west to east the sites are Piano del Praiet (northwestern Italy), Grosser Aletschgletscher (central Switzerland), Julier Pass-inner moraine (eastern Switzerland), and Val Viola (northeastern Italy). There is excellent agreement of the 10Be ages from the four sites. In the earliest Holocene, glaciers in the northernmost mountain ranges advanced at around 10.8 ± 1.1 ka as shown by 10Be data from the Kartell site (northern Tyrol, Austria). In more sheltered, drier regions rock glacier activity dominated as shown, for example, at Julier Pass and Larstig valley (Tyrol, Austria). New 10Be dates presented here for two rock glaciers in Larstig valley indicate final stabilization no later than 10.5 ± 0.8 ka. Based on this data, we conclude the earliest Holocene (between 11.6 and about 10.5 ka) was still strongly affected by the cold climatic conditions of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal oscillation, with the intervening warming phase having had the effect of rapid downwasting of Egesen glaciers. At or slightly before 10.5 ka rapid shrinkage of glaciers to a size smaller than their late 20th century size reflects markedly warmer and possibly also drier climate. Between about 10.5 ka and 3.3 ka conditions in the Alps were not conducive to significant glacier expansion except possibly during rare brief intervals. Past tree-line data from Kaunertal (Tyrol, Austria) in concert with radiocarbon and dendrochronologically dated wood fragments found recently in the glacier forefields in both the Swiss and Austrian Alps points to long periods during the Holocene when glaciers were smaller than they were during the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) were about 200 m higher than they are today and about 300 m higher in comparison to Little Ice Age (LIA) ELAs. The Larstig rock glacier site we dated with 10Be is the type area for a postulated mid-Holocene cold period called the Larstig oscillation (presumed age about 7.0 ka). Our data point to final stabilization of those rock glaciers in the earliest Holocene and not in the middle Holocene. The combined data indicate there was no time window in the middle Holocene long enough for rock glaciers of the size and at the elevation of the Larstig site to have formed. During the short infrequent cold oscillations between 10.5 and 3.3 ka small glaciers (less than several km2) may have advanced to close to their LIA dimensions. Overall, the cold periods were just too short for large glaciers to advance. After 3.3 ka, climate conditions became generally colder and warm periods were brief and less frequent. Large glaciers (for example Grosser Aletschgletscher) advanced markedly at 3.0–2.6 ka, around 600 AD and during the LIA. Glaciers in the Alps attained their LIA maximum extents in the 14th, 17th, and 19th centuries, with most reaching their greatest LIA extent in the final 1850/1860 AD advance.”

Hormes et al. 2006 also dealt with Holocene glacier history, namely in the Swiss Alps. Several times the Swiss Alpine glaciers were smaller than today, each for 320-2500 years. The authors see a relationship between glacial changes and solar activity. Abstract:

A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps

We present a radiocarbon data set of 71 samples of wood and peat material that melted out or sheared out from underneath eight presentday mid‐latitude glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps. Results indicated that in the past several glaciers have been repeatedly less extensive than they were in the 1990s. The periods when glaciers had a smaller volume and shorter length persisted between 320 and 2500 years. This data set provides greater insight into glacier variability than previously possible, especially for the early and middle Holocene. The radiocarbon‐dated periods defined with less extensive glaciers coincide with periods of reduced radio‐production, pointing to a connection between solar activity and glacier melting processes. Measured long‐term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long‐term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.”

On the mountains of the Gobi Desert in Mongolia, a mysterious glacier melt occurred during the last ice age, although it was quite cold. There was a lack of precipitation, according to the University of Washington.

The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya has been shrinking for the last 150 years. Again, a lack of moisture plays a role as Prinz et al. reported in 2016.

The Brewster Glacier in New Zealand has grown strongly over the last 40 years, documented by Sirguey et al. 2016, but since 2008 the glacier has been shrinking again. Scientists see a connection between glacier development and the PDO (Pacific Decade Oscillation). Abstract:

Reconstructing the mass balance of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, using MODIS-derived glacier-wide albedo

In New Zealand, direct measurements of mass balance are sparse due to the inaccessibility of glaciers in the Southern Alps and the logistical difficulties associated with maintaining a mass balance record. In order to explore the benefit of remotely sensed imaging to monitor mass balance in the Southern Alps, this research assesses the relationship between measurements of glacier surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and mass balance observations using the glaciological method on Brewster Glacier over the 2005–2013 period. We confirm that minimum glacier-wide albedo is a reliable predictor for annual mass balance in this maritime environment (R2 = 0.93). Furthermore, we show that regular monitoring of glacier-wide albedo enables a new metric of winter accumulation to be derived, namely the cumulative winter albedo, which is found to correlate strongly with winter mass balance (R2 = 0.88), thus enabling the reconstruction of separate winter and summer mass balance records. This allows the mass balance record for Brewster Glacier to be extended back to the start of MODIS observations in 2000 and to confirm that the annual balance of Brewster Glacier is largely controlled by summer balance (R2  =  92 %). An application of the extended record is proposed whereby the relationship between mass balance and the photographic record of the end-of-summer snowline altitude is assessed. This allowed the annual balance record of Brewster Glacier to be reconstructed over the period 1977–2013, thus providing the longest record of mass balance for a glacier in New Zealand. Over the 37-year period, our results show that Brewster Glacier gained a significant mass of up to 14.5 ± 2.7 m w.e. by 2007. This gain was offset by a marked shift toward negative balances after 2008, yielding a loss of 5.1 ± 1.2 m w.e., or 35 % of the gain accumulated over the previous 30 years. The good correspondence between mass balance of Brewster Glacier and the phase of the Pacific (Inter-)Decadal Oscillation (PDO/IPO), associated with the fast terminus retreat observed between 1978 and 1998, strongly suggests that the observed mass gain of Brewster Glacier since 1977 is only offsetting a longer sequence of dominantly negative balances.”

Growing New Zealand glaciers were also described by Mackintosh et al. 2017. The cause was cool temperatures and not low precipitation. Abstract:

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.”

Finally, a reference to the melting Totten Glacier in the East Antarctic. This glacier is apparently shrinking due to strong winds that bring warm uplift water to the glacier. But of course, the wind changes are also said to be anthropogenic in origin. Of course, what else would it be!

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New Study: A Massive Cooling Of 2°C In 8 Years (2008-2016) Has Jolted Large Regions Of The North Atlantic

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From 2008 to 2016 a widespread cooling ranging from 0.6°C to more than 2.0°C has chilled effectively the entire oceanic region from E. Canada to N. Iceland to S. Europe. The cooling persists year-round and extends from the surface down to depths of 800 m.

Image Source: Bryden et al., 2020

A year ago scientists revealed a large swath of the North Atlantic surface had cooled at a rate of -0.78°C per decade between 2004 and 2017 (Fröb et al., 2019).

Image Source: Fröb et al., 2019

The cooling has recently sprawled into the Arctic regions, as the upper ocean waters in Disko Bay (West Greenland) have just been hit with a ~2°C cooling since 2014 (Khazendar et al., 2019).

Image Source: Khazendar et al., 2019

A new study (Bryden et al., 2020) suggests the magnitude, rapidity, and extent of this cooling may have been underestimated.

A cooling of “more than 2°C” in just 8 years (2008-2016) has been reported for nearly the entire ocean region south of Iceland.

The cooling persists year-round and extends from the “surface down to 800 m depth”.

From 40°N to 70°N, and from 40°W to 0°W, average temperatures have plunged 0.6°C from 2008 to 2016 – also to depths of 800 m.

To put these thermal changes into perspective, consider it took the global oceans 55 years (1955-2010) to warm 0.18°C (0.27 W/m²) in the 700 m layer (Levitus et al., 2012).

It is unknown to what extent the cooling will permeate other regions of the ocean. Nor is it known how long the cooling will persist. Or worsen.

Image Source: Bryden et al., 2020
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German Love Affair With Powerful Cars Continues Unabated…Horsepower Of Registered New Cars Hit Record High

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Germans, like lots of other people, often love to preach water but drink wine.

So often I’ve heard Germans claim it’s so important to cut back on CO2 emissions, install green energy production system and to live green in order to present climate change.

And even though tiny Germany cutting back on CO2 emissions is not going to make any difference to the climate, Germans will insist: “We have to be an example to the rest of the world.”

Yet, right after all the preaching and virtue signalling, you’ll often hear them boast about their holiday travels to exotic places or vacations on luxury cruise ships. Or even worse: ferry the kids 500 meters to school in the family SUV because it’s raining.

German new cars increasing in horsepower

And the same story is the same when it comes to purchasing new automobiles. Many Germans tell you that green, electric, low consumption cars are the way to go. Yet when it comes time to buy a new car, they’ll snap up a real fossil fuel guzzler.

This hypocritical behavior is once again confirmed by a recent article in Spiegel Online here, which reports that the trend to ever greater horsepower vehicles in Germany continues unabated.

Germans love SUVs

Spiegel reports: “According to a survey by the CAR Institute at the University of Duisburg-Essen, the 3.61 million newly registered cars last year had an average of 158 hp under the hood – five hp more than a year earlier and the tenth increase in a row.”

This development, Spiegel reports, “was driven by the trends towards heavy SUVs and powerful plug-in hybrid drives. Newly registered SUVs had an average of 172 hp” and they “accounted for around 33 percent of all new car registrations in 2019.”

For hybrid cars, Spiegel writes the “average power even reached 194 hp”.

No end in sight for German horsepower love affair

What’s even more surprising is that green-conscious Germans aren’t about to end their love affair with powerful cars any time soon. Auto trend expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, who headed the CAR Institute study, “does not believe the trend towards more and more performance is reversing”, Spiegel reports.

“Only once in the past 25 years has the number of horsepower of new cars declined,” Dudenhöffer told German daily “Welt”.

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Expert: German Coal Exit Will Cost 80 Billion Euros, But “Changes Europe CO2 Emissions By 0”

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The German government recently decided to exit from coal generated power by 2038, and now one expert says that the exit is going to cost handsomely, and bring zero result. Still, that 2038 target is too slow for some.

That’s how German politicians make decisions on things that concern the economy and environment. The German government’s aim of a coal phaseout is to contribute to protecting the climate. In reality, it will have no impact at all.

German online FOCUS magazine reports here: “80 billion euros are to be given to the affected regions and companies in the coming years as aid and compensation.”

But for some experts, the 2018 target date for completing the coal exit is too late, and thus risks seeing Germany emitting another 140 million tonnes of extra CO2 between 2020 and 2040 by exiting so slowly, so claims the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).

To keep that 140 million ton figure in a global perspective, it is barely a drop in the bucket when compared to the 33 billion tonnes emitted globally and annually. The climate is not even going to notice it.

And over the next 20 years, global Co2 emissions could total 700 billion tonnes, which is a figure that is roughly 5000 times greater than the 140 million tons the DIW is bellyaching about and wishes to eliminate by speeding up the coal phaseout.

“The coal exit changes the CO2 emissions of the European Union by 0,” FOCUS quotes economics professor Christian Bayer of the University of Bonn at Twitter. “A German coal phase-out in itself only shifts emissions abroad.”

In summary, the 2038 coal exit will cost the German government (taxpayers) 80 billion euros, will have no effect on CO2 reductions, have no impact on climate, will ultimately lead to higher electricity costs, result in a more unstable grid, make Germany more dependent on foreign energy, and encourage companies to leave for places with more stable and cheaper electricity.

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Japanese IWJ News Site Reports Polar Bears, Snow Cover, Increasing… No Real Climate Science Consensus

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Experts: polar bears and winter snow on the increase

The online Japanese Independent Web Journal (IWJ) reports on a leading figure in polar bear research, Dr. Susan Crockford, who says “polar bears will not become extinct due to climate change” and that “in fact, polar bears have increased rather than become extinct!”

Crockford’s findings contradict claims by environmental activists groups such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

For example the WWF Japan reported in 2009 (hat-tip Kirye) that the estimated population was 26,000 and that the polar bears escaped extinction due to intervention by international conservation activities, but then added: “it is believed that the population is decreasing due to the effects of global warming and the deterioration of the Arctic environment.”

Today, 10 years later, however, Crockford says the numbers “could easily exceed 40,000, up from a low point of 10,000 or fewer in the 1960s.” Clearly the WWF Japan’s 2009 claim that the “population is decreasing” was false.

440 papers from 2019 challenge climate “consensus”

The IWJ article, authored by Japanese blogger Kirye, also reports: “Over 440 scientific papers questioned the main causes of climate change CO2 in 2019 alone” and that “the theory of global warming caused by CO2 is still a hypothesis” and so in reality does not have the broad consensus among scientists that is often claimed in the media and by some vocal scientists.

Winter snow cover at highest levels since measurements began

The IWJ article also notes that snow has hardly become a thing of the past as reports of heavy wintertime snowfalls keep making the headlines. In fact northern hemisphere snow cover for fall shows high levels over the past decade and a rising trend:

Source: Rutgers University

The Japan-based IWJ also links to NoTricksZone here, which earlier reported on fall and winter snow cover trends over the northern hemisphere.

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New Experimental Evidence: The Atmosphere Cools As More CO2 Is Added…High CO2 ‘May Enhance Net Heat Loss’

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An observational study analyzing the effects of 300, 480, 3200, 7500, and 16,900 ppm CO2 on atmospheric (and soil) temperatures has determined “temperatures of atmospheric air in mesocosms [controlled outdoor experiments] with substantially higher CO2 concentration (ranging from 3200 ppm to 16900 ppm) were lower than that with the lower CO2 concentration (480 ppm)”.

Image Source: Zhang et al., 2020

Can we find a real-world experiment assessing CO2’s temperature impact?

Using real-world experimental evidence to directly measure the effects of incremental increases in CO2 concentrations on air temperatures is highly unusual in climate science.

Most studies utilize extrapolations from radiation modeling that rest on a series of assumptions to theoretically assess CO2’s effect on the temperature of atmospheric air (Kennedy and Hodzic, 2019, Gerlich and Tscheuschner, 2009).

An exception would be Lightfoot and Mamer, 2018, who directly assessed the air temperature changes associated with specific CO2 concentrations. They found that CO2 is sometimes a cooling gas, and sometimes it’s a warming gas.

Supporting the contention of a dual cooling and warming – or negligible – effect of CO2 variability on air temperature, it has been determined that natural cave air may vary between 500 ppm in summer to 5000 ppm in winter despite very minimal seasonal temperture gradients (Pla et al., 2017).

Image Source: Pla et al., 2017

New experimental study challenges the CO2-rise-leads-to-warming paradigm

The seven co-authors of a new paper (Zhang et al., 2020) were intent on demonstrating the dangers of substantial CO2 emissions from soil and its contribution to the greenhouse effect.

Natural soil emissions are a legitimate concern for those who believe CO2 drives the Earth’s temperature changes.

After all, the air CO2 concentrations in soil can reach 20,000 ppm (Zhang et al., 2020), and natural yearly emissions from soil respiration/perturbation are 9 times greater than that from all human activity combined.

Image Source: ScienceDaily

Zhang and colleagues utilized mesocosms – controlled outdoor experiments – to assess the air and soil temperature effect of step changes in CO2 concentration.

They “unexpectedly” found the mesocosms with the 3 highest CO2 concentrations – 3200, 7500, and 16,900 ppm – actually had lower associated atmospheric temperatures than the mesocosms with 480 ppm.

The authors suggest the higher CO2 concentrations rise, the more they “may enhance net heat loss”.

Similarly, even soil temperatures were cooler with the higher CO2 concentrations (16,900 ppm), leading the authors to suggest that substantially higher CO2 “may cool the soil”.

These experimental results would appear to undermine the popular assumption that linear increases in CO2 cause linear increases in temperature due to an enhancement of the overall greenhouse effect.

Image Source: Zhang et al., 2020

Zhang et al., 2020

“The increased atmospheric air temperatures with CO2 concentration (ranging from 300 ppm to 7500 ppm) at daytime with higher radiation were understandable. Unexpectedly, the magnitude of temperature increase of atmospheric air in mesocosms with 16900 ppm CO2 declined significantly compared to that with 7500 ppm CO2 at daytime with higher radiation. In addition, the temperatures of atmospheric air in mesocosms with substantially higher CO2 concentration (ranging from 3200 ppm to 16900 ppm) were lower than that with the lower CO2 concentration (480 ppm) at early morning and/or nighttime with lower heat radiation. These results emphasized that the molecules of CO2 not only absorb the infrared radiation but also re-emit it to the surrounding space (20). Thus an increase of CO2 concentration in atmospheric air may result in either an increase or decrease of the air temperature in the atmosphere, depending on the balance of heat gain and loss. In other words, CO2 with substantially higher concentration may enhance the net heat loss to colder surrounding interfaces when the heat absorption capacity of CO2 was saturated or heat input was much limited.”
“[T]he significant decrease of soil air temperature in mesocosms with CO2 concentration of 16900 ppm indicated that soil with substantially higher CO2 concentration may cool the soil probably by transferring more heat to surrounding space during colder periods when the temperature difference between soil and surface atmospheric air became larger. The realistic significance of these findings was greater than those in the atmosphere because CO2 concentration in soil air was often in the range of 1,000 ppm – 20,000 ppm [21-23]. Hence, the variation of soil CO2 concentration may regulate the balance of heat gain and loss in soil which determines the contribution of soil to surface warming of the earth.”
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“Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature”: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed To CFCs!

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Arctic Surprise

By Professor Fritz Vahrenholt

A few days ago, an international research group from the USA, Canada and Switzerland led by Lorenzo Polvani of Columbia University (New York) published a sensational study in Nature climate change, which attributes a large part of the warming of the 20th century to CFCs (“Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting substances“).

Using 10 climate models, the researchers calculated the global and Arctic temperature development, once with CFCs in the atmosphere and once without.

According to these models, from 1955 to 2005, global temperatures increase by 0.59 °C with CFCs and by 0.39 °C without CFCs. One third of the warming is therefore not caused by CO2 but by the CFCs.

If the remaining warming for CO2 is converted over the five decades, an average warming of 0.08 °C per decade remains. Not exactly a lot. CFCs have a 19000-23000 times stronger forcing than CO2.

Half of Arctic warming due to CFCs

In the Arctic, the CFCs had an even greater impact in the model calculations. As is well known, the warming there from 1955 to 2005 was greater than on a global scale, by 1.59 °C in the models. According to Polvani, without CFCs the increase would have been only 0.82°C, i.e. only half as much.

Half of Arctic melt due to CFCs

The same applies to sea ice. According to Polvani, half of the decrease in the area of Arctic sea ice in September (the smallest extent of Arctic sea ice in each case) is thus attributable to CFCs. The other way round: only a maximum of half of the warming and the decline of the sea ice can be attributed to CO2.

Authors asked to edit conclusion

The authors conclude that the decrease of CFCs in the air due to the prohibition of the substances will substantially defuse the warming and the decrease of ice in the future. It is interesting that these clear conclusions called mainstream scientists to the scene. Piers Forster of the University of Leeds and John Fyfe of the Canadian University of Victoria asked the authors to change the sentence in the conclusion from “CFCs produce 1/3 of global warming and half of Arctic climate change” to “CFCs are an important contribution to the global climate system, especially in the Arctic”.

The numbers remain, but the interpretation is clouded because it would cause too much sensation. That’s how climate science framing works today.

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Is “All-Time Antarctic 20.75C Record High Temperature” Just A Sensational Hoax? Station Data Show Only 16C

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In Germany there have been rumors that the alleged Antarctic Seymour Island “all-time Antarctic record high” of 20.75°C set on February 9th is a hoax – originating by the AFP news agency and then spread by The Guardian.

The alleged 20.75°C was supposedly logged by Brazilian scientists and was supposedly almost a full degree higher than the previous record of 19.8C, taken on Signy Island in January 1982, The Guardian blared with much alarm, citing its own rush job chart.

Currently the WMO is seeking to obtain the actual temperature data for Seymour Island, part of a chain of islands off the Antarctic peninsula.

WMO cites media as source!

The WMO website itself is citing the media as its source, writing: “Media reports say that researchers logged a temperature of 20.75°C. Mr Cerveny cautioned that it is premature to say that Antarctica has exceeded 20°C for the first time.”

Thermometer data show only 16°C!

According to German Facebook site Klima.Wissen here and its readers, the “all-time record high reading” of 20.75°C appears to have its origins from the AFP news agency. It was then picked up by the always climate sensational The Guardian. But now the whole story is beginning to appear as just big sensational hoax.

First, WetterOnline.de here shows that the high temperature on February 9th at the Seymour Island station (Base Murambio) was merely 16°C!

 

There was much ado over the record set at the Antarctic station Esperanza, which was reported to have reached 18.4° on February 7. Here Wetteronline.de confirms it, as does the Argentine National Meteorological Service:

So what’s going on at the Seymour Island station? 16°C is not even close to the claimed 20.75°C record reading screamed out bloody-murder by the media across the globe. Maybe the Seymour station operators breathed on an unofficial thermometer outside, snapped a photo, and sent it out to the media. Who knows.

The chart The Guardian published is totally different from the one at the official wetteronline.de.

Looking at the Accuweather February temperatures, so far we see a high of only 7°C 0n February 9, 2020!

Depicted in tabular form:

We’ll keep an open mind, though, and see what comes out officially. But it would be awfully embarrassing if the record never really happened. Right now the media and alarmists can only hope that the WMO will play along with the hoax and just say it happened so that the global alarmist media complex can save its face.

But the thermometer is sure telling us a very different story.

Will take some time to confirm the reading

“We first need to analyse the very important station metadata, e.g., location, type of equipment, measurement practices, calibration of the instruments, etc.) from the researchers involved.  Once we have those data, we can begin a formal evaluation as to the observation’s validity.  Unfortunately, accomplishing those tasks does not happen quickly (particularly with remote polar weather stations) so it will likely be some time before we at the WMO Archive of Weather and Climate Extremes can even give a tentative evaluation of this observation,” WMO’s Weather and Climate Extremes rapporteur, Randall Cerveny said.

 

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New Study: Greenland’s Largest Glacier Has Rapidly Thickened Since 2016…Fueled By 1.5°C Regional Ocean Cooling

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Greenland’s largest glacier (Jakobshavn) has quite abruptly thickened since 2016. The thickening has been so profound the ice elevations are nearly back to 2010-2011 levels. The nearby ocean has cooled ~1.5°C – a return to 1980s-era temperatures.

The world’s glaciers have not been following along with the CO2-driven catastrophic melting narrative.

Alaska

For example, in a study of 50 Alaskan glaciers for the warming period between 1972-2012, researchers (McNabb and Hock, 2014) found there was
“…no corresponding change in the number of glaciers retreating nor do we see corresponding acceleration of retreat rates. To the contrary, many glaciers in the region have advanced…”
Image Source: McNabb and Hock, 2014

Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, an accumulating collection of (29) referenced studies (Lüning et al.,2019) indicate that not only has the Southern Ocean, Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica, and East Antarctica been cooling or not warming in recent decades, but many regional glaciers have begun advancing again.

Image Source: Lüning et al.,2019

Greenland

Greenland’s ice sheet mass losses have significantly decelerated since 2013 – a reversal from the rapid retreat from the 1990s to 2012 driven by cloud forcing and the NAO (Ruan et al., 2019).

The 47 largest Greenland glaciers also experienced a “relatively stable” period of rather insignificant retreat from 2013 to 2018 (Andersen et al., 2019).

Only 21 of the 47 Greenland glaciers retreated in 2018, 12 advanced, and the other 14 showed no trends in either direction (Polar Portal, 2019).

Greenland’s largest glacier, Jakobshavn, earned headlines in 2019 for it’s surprising and non-predicted rapid thickening in recent years.

Image Source: BBC, 2019

New Study

A new study (Joughin et al., 2020) finds that the Jakobshavn glacier thickening that began in 2016 has continued apace, and ice elevation has now nearly completely returned to 2010/2011 amplitudes.

The authors attribute much of the glacier advance to the rapid 1.5°C ocean cooling impacting the region in recent years.

Ocean temperatures have returned to 1980s-era levels.

Image Source: Joughin et al., 2020
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Germany’s Transition To Green Energies Is “An Impending Disaster”, German Expert Tells Audience

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Last Thursday evening in Münster, Germany, amid an atmosphere of loudly protesting students and Extinction Rebellion activists outside shouting obscenities and beating drums, prominent SPD social democrat and climate science critic Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt spoke on why Germany was headed down the wrong path with its now flailing transition to green energies, dubbed “Energiewende“.

Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. Image: GWPF. 

Vahrenholt called the Energiewende: “An impending disaster.”

According to the Westfälische Nachricten here, “Scientists for Future activists handed out leaflets to emphasize that in their opinion the climate models of the IPCC (‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’) accurately depicted climate warming and that only trace gas CO2 was responsible for it.”

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne

But Vahrenholt, former environment senator of Hamburg, refuted the claims and showed why he thought CO2 is only half responsible for climate change today and that the rest was due to natural factors like sun and clouds.

In his 45-minute presentation, Vahrenholt showed those in attendance how Germany’s foray into green energies was doomed to fail. As leaders in Germany continue to insist wind energy is able to supply the country’s energy needs, Vahrenholt – an environmentalist and one of the founders of Germany’s modern environmental movement – pointed out the major technical obstacle: the inability to store wind energy for periods of low wind.

“Not even in the grid, like one well-known Green politician claimed,” said Vahrenholt, taking a shot at Green party leader Annalena Baerbock, who once famously claimed the power grid could store energy.

German electricity prices among world’s highest

Vahrenholt also reminded that the Energiewende has made Germany’s electricity prices among the highest in the world and that it would hit the poor especially hard. “I never understood the SPD here,” said Vahrenholt, criticizing his own party. The retired professor said it would take 90,000 wind turbines to supply Germany with electricity, a number that would lead to the country having a turbine every 2 kilometers.

The Westfälische Nachrichten sums up on whether the Energiewende is going to work:

At the end of the complex, 45-minute presentation, the majority in the hall were probably convinced: it can’t. The facts and figures presented by the environmentalist were too overwhelming.”

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Greta’s, The Guardian’s Latest Panic Attack Over Antarctica Record Ignores Cooling Trends Of Recent Decades

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In her latest panic attack, teenage Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg – citing the Guardian –  once again appeared to be proclaiming the end of the world was a step closer when she tweeted Antarctica has set a new record high temperature:

Two new warm records

According to the Guardian, “The 20.75C logged by Brazilian scientists at Seymour Island on 9 February was almost a full degree higher than the previous record of 19.8C, taken on Signy Island in January 1982.”

That reading, the Guardian reports, follows the February 6 record of 18.3C recorded at the Argentinian research station, Esperanza measured.

As is the case with most alarmists, every warm single datapoint anomaly gets uncritically accepted with open arms as solid evidence of man-made global warming while cold trends get dismissed or downgraded as “natural variability”.

Seymour Island has been cooling for over a quarter century

So we have two recent warm records set at and near the Antarctic peninsula over the past week or so and that means the region there is heating up, alarmists like Greta and the Guardian want us to believe. But what are the real TRENDS there? Do the 2 recent warm records mean the region is heating up.

Looking at official data from NASA, it turns out that warming isn’t true. And because climate is always changing, the temperature in the region in question has also not remained completely steady. The only possibility left? COOLING.

Seymour Island, also known as Marambio Island is an island in the chain of 16 major islands around the tip of the Graham Land on the Antarctic Peninsula. What follows is a plot of the mean annual temperature measured at Seymour Island – based on NASA data – going back to the time all the global warming predictions began in earnest:

Contrary to that implied by The Guardian and Greta, the island has in fact cooled a bit during the period, despite the warm spike of 2016.

13 of 13 Antarctic Peninsula/island stations cooling

Next we look at the Antarctic Peninsula, which global warming alarmists also like to have us believe is teetering on the brink of meltdown. Not long ago Japanese climate blogger Kirye posted a chart showing the mean annual temperatures of 13 stations located there – going back two decades.

For alarmists, the results turn out to be terribly inconvenient. The following map shows the location of the stations:

The following chart shows the plots of the mean annual temperature of the 13 stations, using NASA Version 4 unadjusted data:

13 of 13 Antarctic Peninsula and nearby island stations show cooling over the past 21 years. There hasn’t been any warming there so far this century. Data source: NASA GISS, Version 4 unadjusted. 

Natural ocean cycles

Buried near the end of the Guardian article is mention of the real reason behind Antarctic temperature trends:

Scientists on the Brazilian Antarctic programme say this appears to be influenced by shifts in ocean currents and El Niño events: “We have climatic changes in the atmosphere, which is closely related to changes in permafrost and the ocean. The whole thing is very interrelated.”

Indeed it is. Very likely in ways the climate alarmists prefer not to mention.

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