NoTricksZone: "Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" – Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English

As Snow Blankets Europe, EnBW Power Company Builds Giant Solar Panel Farm In Germany

By P Gosselin on 15. January 2021

Although Germany sees about as many hours of sunshine as Alaska, the country is pushing for ever larger solar farms.

Germany business daily Handelsblatt here reports that power company EnBW is currently building a 500 MW solar panel park in Brandenburg, 30 km east of Berlin. It reported that it will be able to provide power for 130,000 households.

400 hectares

It will consist of three separate parks, which combined, the Handelsblatt writes, “will cover an area of 400 hectares. This corresponds to around 550 soccer fields.”

Vast solar field claimed to provide as much energy as one large coal-fired power plant. Photo: EnBW

“In total, the energy company plans to invest about a quarter of a billion euros in the region.”

EnBW says that the project “will operate without any subsidies” when finished and that it demonstrates that projects of this scale make sense. According to EnBW manager Dirk Güsewell: “Solar energy has become economical.”

70 billion euros in subsidies

Formerly solar energy in Germany was driven by massive subsidies via the renewable energies feed-in act (EEG). So far German electricity consumers have had to pay over 70 billion euros for the expansion of solar energy. Now the industry says that solar modules have become so low-priced that parks can be constructed and operated without subsidies.

Since 2015 the price of 1 kilowatt-hour of solar power has fallen from 9 cents to just over 4 cents, according to the Handelsblatt. Market experts expect electricity prices to stabilize at around five cents per kilowatt hour over the long term.

Investors are also confident that there still remains still plenty of space to install large solar fields, especially in the eastern part of Germany.

According to the Handelsblatt: “For the energy group, formerly known for its nuclear power plants, solar energy is becoming an important pillar of the ‘EnBW 2025’ strategy, with which the southern German company is completely aligning itself with the transition to green energies. ‘Solar energy is to become our third major pillar in power generation alongside onshore and offshore wind energy,’ says Güsewell.”

Concerning where all the power will come from during windless, cloudy periods in the dead of winter, no details are given.

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Posted in Alternative Energy | Leave a response

What Global Warming? 148 New (2020) Scientific Papers Affirm Recent Non-Warming, A Degrees-Warmer Past

By Kenneth Richard on 14. January 2021

Scientists continued defying the “unprecedented” global warming narrative by publishing nearly 150 papers in 2020 that show large regions of the Earth (a) haven’t warmed in recent decades, (b) were as-warm or warmer within the last several centuries, and/or (c) were 1-7°C warmer than today just a few millennia ago.

Here is the link to the 2020 (and 2019) Non-Global Warming scientific paper database:

Non-Global Warming Studies From 2020 & 2019

Below are 8 examples of the 148 non-global warming papers published in 2020.

Martin et al., 2020 France max Holocene temps (14°C) were 7°C warmer than the modern value (7°C)

“Modern climatic parameters were obtained from the instrumental database of Meteo-France at the nearby station of Mazet-Volamont (1130 m) located 11 km distant, for the period 2009-2017 … Temperature values were corrected using a lapse rate of 0.6°C/ 100 m. Mean annual temperatures vary between 6 and 9°C with a mean value of 7°C. … The mean annual temperature for the entire Holocene was 11.3°C, i.e. 4.1°C above the modern value. The maximum of 14°C and a minimum of 7.6°C were reached, respectively, at 7.8 and 1.7 kyr cal BP. … The last 200 years display an opposite trend … MAAT decreased by 3.1 and 3.3°C for the lake calibrations, Sun et al. (2011) and Russell et al. (2018), respectively, and 2.1°C for the soil calibration.”

Hou et al., 2020 W. Tropical Atlantic 1-5°C warmer throughout last ice age (190 ppm CO2)

“Our results indicate a lack of pronounced glacial-interglacial variability in the SST record, prompting us to exclude atmospheric pCO2 as a direct driver of SST variations in the southern WTA [western tropical Atlantic].”

Xia et al., 2020 Subantarctic Georgia “summer temperature between 10°C and 5°C higher than present”

“Although the biomarker-based paleotemperature proxy has been calibrated for modern temperature data of regional lakes, summer temperatures as high as 14°C reconstructed from Fan Lake are outside the range of their modern calibration dataset in which the warmest site has a summer temperature of only 10°C (Foster et al., 2016) … The CARs increased to as high as 140 g C m² yr¹ at 4000-3500 cal yr BP and 70 g C m² yr¹ at 3200-2700 cal yr BP when summer temperature was around 10°C and 5°C higher than present, respectively “

Gebbie, 2020 Modern global ocean heat 1/3rd of what’s required to reach Medieval levels

Wangner et al., 2020 SE Greenland warmer 1920s-1940s

“The cold decades after 1950 coincide with the Great Salinity Anomaly in the late 60s to early 70s, caused by the long-term decrease of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index favoring the export of freshwater and ice through Fram Strait into the EGC (Dickson et al., 1996). Within two or three years, the associated salinity anomaly reached the Labrador Sea causing a reduction of the convection and subsequent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This mechanism explains the low temperature on the SE-Greenland shelf and the positive AMV during this time period (Ionita et al., 2016, Figure 6d). … Displayed in the alkSST record from Skjoldungen as well as in the CTD measurements off Skjoldungen (Figure 5d) is a return to lower temperatures post 2006, pointing out the exceptional high temperatures around 2000. … Our study shows that even though the meltwater production may have been influenced by climate, the glacier margin position and iceberg calving remained relatively constant in the 20th century. This may be due to the setting of the glacier with a limited ice-ocean interface and a 90° inflow angle acting as a pinning point in its current position. Our study illustrates that ocean heat may have a limited effect on some marine glaciers.”

Sun et al., 2020 NW China no warming since 1600s, cooling since 1950

Weckstrom et al., 2020 Northern North Atlantic cooling and sea ice growing since 1930

Singh et al., 2020 “The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades”

“Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography … The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite a monotonic increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.”

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Medieval Warm Period, Paleo-climatology | 2 Responses

Arctic Temps Show Little Change Over Past 90 Years, In Sync With Oceanic Surface Temperature Cycles

By P Gosselin on 13. January 2021

Data show Arctic more stable than media doomsayers portray it to be.

In the latter part of the latest Klimaschau video, Arctic mean temperature trends above 70°N are examined:

The first chart (8:38) goes back to 2000. Though the running 37-month average rose until 2006, it’s been steady ever since:

Source: climate4you

Over the last five years, the plot in fact shows some cooling off.

No real warming since the 1930s

Next, looking back longer term, we examine the data going back 100 years:

Source: climate4you

The above chart from climate4you shows that Arctic mean temperatures were almost as warm back in the 1930s and 40s as they are today. Moreover, Arctic temperatures trended downward from 1930 to 1988, a time when manmade CO2 emissions were rising worldwide.

Next from 1990 to 2016, they rose. The last few years there’s been no increase. So what’s really happening?

Ocean cycles (stupid)

So why have Arctic temperatures not gone up continuously like they were supposed to do, according to CO2 global warming theory?

The answer of course is that there are obviously many other factors at play, some being much more powerful than trace gas CO2. For example: oceanic sea surface temperature cycles, here especially the AMO.

AMO likely the powerful driver

Next we roughly superimpose a chart of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), one that also includes cyclone frequency:

As the above chart shows, when the AMO was in its warm phase from the 1930s to the 1950s, Arctic temps were warmer. The warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures warmed the adjacent Arctic.

But then by the mid 1970s, the Atlantic sea surface had cooled, and the Arctic responded accordingly.

Next in the 1990s and 2000s, the Atlantic sea surface warmed strongly, and so did the Arctic along with it. Arctic temperatures have little to do with atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Cyclones respond to the AMO

Interestingly, tropical cyclone frequency also varied in sync with the AMO. During periods of a warm AMO phase, tropical cyclones were tended to be more frequent. And when the AMO was in its cool phase, cyclone frequency tamed down.

Unfortunately activist scientists like to ignore the role of oceanic cycles on climate variability, and constantly fudge the numbers and cook the data to try to pin everything on man-made CO2. The reality, however, is that things just aren’t that simple.

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Posted in Misc. | 1 Response

Europe’s Near Electricity Black Friday Was Triggered In France Due To “Polar Cold Wave”

By P Gosselin on 12. January 2021

A further analysis of last Friday’s European near power blackout shows that the problem had begun already one day earlier in France, due to cold weather, says a German expert.

At wind energy protest group Vernunftkraft Bayern, Jörn Künzle provides background on what was behind Europe’s near blackout last Friday, January 8, 2021.

We recently reported on this here.

Disturbance began in France

Quoting energy expert Dr. Michael Schneeberger, “The disturbance in the European grid was triggered inFrance. Already on January 7, France’s RTE (Le Réseau de Transport de l’Électricité) was forced to take essential parts of the electricity-intensive industry off the power grid. The RED alert level was ordered for the entire network of France.”

Polar wave

The following reasons were decisive, according to Michael Schneeberger’s research:

1) The polar cold wave occurred earlier than meteorologically expected, with low temperatures for France.

2) Due to delays for new rules by the corona management, 13 nuclear power plants are currently not on the grid.

3) Despite fierce EDF warnings, the Macron government (German influence, Merkel/Greens) shut down the 2 Fessenheim units (both fully operational, i.e. almost 2 GW thus additionally missing).

4) CONSEQUENCE: Therefore, beginning Thursday, power had to be imported massively at very high prices,
a) with continental high pressure situation, there is no wind (and this in whole Europe),
b) with an installed capacity of 57 GW wind energy, the available capacity was less than 1000 MW (as is well known, there is little sun even in January / ignored by politics).

5) So on January 8, the RTE called on the French population to switch off electrical devices, heaters and charging units, but that, however, was not continuously adhered to.

6) Therefore the only remaining possibility was to intervene using area-wide shutdowns or by lowering the mains voltage by approx. 5% (there has been no comparable situation in France in 60 years).

7) Germany was unable to offer any assistance, that was the trigger for a separation of the European grids by ENTSO for stability reasons.

8) It then took a good hour to stabilize the frequency again.

9) Southern Germany. Bavaria and Austria could be kept stable, thanks to the Czech Republic grid (the Temelin and Dukovany nuclear power plants were in full operation).

Note:
1) February 2021 is still to come, with even lower temperatures.
2) Also interesting is that Poland has requested Germany to restart the nuclear power plants immediately , otherwise electricity power supply would be massively at risk.

A similar incident occurred in November, 2006 when ten million households in Western Europe had to be disconnected from the power grid.

======================================

NTZ Note:

On Saturday we posted on how wind and solar energies have been mostly AWOL over the past weeks in Germany. For the period from January 6 to 9, we see that Germany’s massive 110 GW of installed wind and solar capacity were delivering near nothing, thus straining the grid in these times of cold weather.

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Posted in Alternative Energy | 9 Responses

New Study: Sea Level Rise Rates The Same Since 1958 As They Were For All Of 1900-2018

By Kenneth Richard on 11. January 2021

A new analysis of global sea level rise rates concludes the rising trend was 1.56 mm/yr−¹ from 1900-2018. This is the same rate as for 1958-2014 (1.5 mm/yr−¹), indicating there has not been a long-term distinctive change in sea level rise rates in the last 120 years.

In 2018, Frederikse et al. assessed the contributing factors to long-term sea level rise from 1958 to 2014. They determined ice melt and thermal expansion combined to add 1.3 mm/yr−¹ to sea levels during this period, and the overall rate of sea level rise was 1.5 mm/yr−¹.

Image Source: Frederikse et al., 2018

Then, in a study published last August, Frederikse et al. (2020) assessed global sea level rise rates and its sum of contributors since 1900. Interestingly, they found the rates of sea level rise were effectively the same for the entire 1900 to 2018 period (1.56 mm/yr−¹) as they were from 1958-2014 (1.5 mm/yr−¹).

The overall long-term trend in sea level rise has undergone an oscillation: high rates in the 1930s and 1940s, a slowdown during the 1960s and 1970s, and then a return to high rates in recent decades.

It’s interesting to note that the ice melt contribution to sea level rise – including the ice melt contribution from the Greenland ice sheet – was higher in the 1930s and 1940s than it has been during the last few decades. In fact, the contribution from total ice mass loss from glaciers was higher for the entire 1900-2018 period (0.70 mm/yr−¹) than it has been since 1957 (0.52 mm/yr−¹), suggesting a relative slowdown.

Neither of these trends – the multi-decadal oscillation in rates or higher ice mass contribution prior to 1950 – would appear to correlate well with the linearly accelerated rise in CO2 emissions since the 1940s.

Image Source: Frederikse et al., 2020

Posted in Glaciers, Sea Levels | 14 Responses

European Power Grid Narrowly Misses Widespread Blackout As Frequency Drops Suddenly

By P Gosselin on 10. January 2021

Last Friday, January 8, 2021, Europe narrowly escaped a blackout, says power grid expert

A European power grid disturbance occurred at around 2 p.m. according to the Austrian Power Grid (APG). The normal frequency for Europe is 50 Hz and on Friday afternoon it dropped sharply to 49.75 Hz.

“A larger supply area must have broken away,” blackout expert Herbert Saurugg told futurezone.

Saurugg tweeted:

“WTF just happened there? #Europe must have really just scraped past a #blackout. This time the normal range was clearly left, not as usual” (Image cropped from Twitter)

“According to Saurugg, who has been involved in crisis management for years, this is the second most serious incident since the blackout in Europe in 2006, when the shutdown of two high-voltage lines in Germany led to a drop in frequency. As a result, power failed in several European countries. Fortunately, this did not happen on Friday, but it was close.” reported futurezone.

Saurugg added: “Normally, the European power grid is synchronized to compensate for possible fluctuations. If the frequency drops too low, this synchronization will be automatically interrupted. A so-called temporary grid splitting occurs, in which the interconnected grid is divided.”

Saurugg also said a similar incident in Europe took place on January 10, 2019.

The cause of the latest disturbance is still under investigation but officials believe it may have occurred in south-eastern Europe.

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Posted in Misc. | 6 Responses

Power Supply Fiasco: Green Energy Blackout Hits Germany! Fossil Fuels To The Rescue

By P Gosselin on 9. January 2021

First, many of you surely have heard of a widespread purge of followers and account suspensions happening at Twitter, most notably that of the U.S. President, Donald Trump and Sidney Powell.

NoTricksZone lost 3oo followers since January 6. Tony Heller’s account has lost 3000 in just a matter of hours.

Moving to Gab, Parler

Currently I’m moving from Twitter to Gab and Parler, as I expect things at Twitter to get far worse.

Clearly they’re convinced they can get away with anything. Where will it all end? Who knows! The way things are going, it wouldn’t surprise me if others started freezing bank accounts, denying mobile phone service or even electric power. Remember these people stole an election and got away with it!

My handle to search for at Gab and Parler: NoTricksZone. I encourage you all to open an account there.

The denial of electrical power may even be necessary soon in the future, anyway – like it was in communist Romania in the wonderful Ceausescu days. Just look at how Germany’s 50 GW – yes, gigawatts – of solar power have performed since January 1st.

Image cropped from Agora.

The dark blue curve depicts Germany’s total electric power consumption, which ramped up again Sunday evening, January 3rd, as factories started up again. The yellow shaded nubs depict the solar energy produced over the period, same as nothing.

Over the past couple of days, many installations have been blanketed by snow.

Germany’s weather has been much more overcast and gray recently, including periods of low wind activity. Let’s look at how solar power has performed over the past 45 days:

Image cropped from Agora.

This is the plan that sleepy-brain Biden and the leftwing environmental crazies want to implement for America. No wonder they want to censor us, when we present the reality.

Supply disaster

When we include wind power, with another 60 GW of installed capacity – total 110 GW with sun – we see the following performance.

Image cropped from Agora.

Though it looks much better, the combined massive 110 GW of installed wind and solar capacity don’t even come close to meeting Germany’s electricity demand. There are some periods where both are practically absent.

It’s no way to operate a power grid. Germany’s power grid, once one of the most stable worldwide, is headed for ruin. America should not mimic such a fiasco.

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Posted in Alternative Energy | 33 Responses

Germany’s DWD Weather Service Annuls All-Time Heat Record, Concedes Station Siting Problems

By P Gosselin on 8. January 2021

Germany’s DWD reverses, annuls Lingen’s July 25, 2019 all-time 42.6°C record high temperature. Station siting was not up to standard, had caused inflated readings.

Media berserk over all-time record high

Back in July 2019, the German media and the German DWD national weather service went into overdrive when the Lingen-Germany station, located in northwest Germany near the Dutch border, smashed the country’s all-time record high as the ‘mercury’ rose to a scorching 42.6°C. Another sign of global warming.

The previous all-time had been a comparatively cool 40.3°C, so the margin was impressive – too impressive!

Criticism over lousy siting

Within days, independent meteorologists cast doubt over the heat record, pointing to serious station siting issues. The record-setting station station was located right near a DWD office building, shielded from the wind by grown trees and situated in a depression in the ground that trapped air and prevented it from mixing:

Heat trap. In a hole, shielded by trees, with no air movement. Image source: Jannes Wessels, WetterOnline

Good scientific quality measurement?

At first DWD officials dismissed the criticism, telling Bild daily it planned to stick to the record Lingen readings, deeming them to be of good scientific quality. The DWD insisted the siting had been found to have “no serious influence on the temperature measurements” and therefore “did not contradict the WMO standards.”

DWD then admits record high needed to be rechecked

But the criticism of the station’s integrity did not stop. For example, an NTZ summary of all the temperature readings recorded at the time at Lingen compared to those of 6 nearby stations showed how the Lingen readings stood out like a sore thumb:

On every single day, Lingen handily beat its neighbors, at times by large margins. Clearly something was amiss.

Eventually some 10 months later, in June 2020, the DWD was forced to concede the station was not optimally sited after all, and thus needed to be rechecked, read here. The DWD also noted the station would be moved as well.

DWD annuls Lingen’s record reading

Finally, just before Christmas, 2020, the DWD announced that the all-time record high temperature for Germany indeed had been scrapped, according to a recent Klimaschau report.

According to Uwe Kirsche, DWD spokesman and public relations head:

“We have re-examined the temperature data from Lingen for half a year – also using parallel measurements – and other older readings in this regard. The results are clear: Since 2017 temperatures in the surrounding area occurred again and again that were not representative of the region. That was the case on July 25, 2019. For this reason the German record value of 42.6°C measured in Lingen has been removed from the climate archives.”

Though the record stands, all the blaring media headlines remain. In today’s Internet world, falsehoods make their way 100 times around the world before the truth catches up.

Needless to say, there are no blaring headlines about the correction. The public information damage is irreversible.

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Posted in Alarmism, Data Manipulation, Temperature Bias/Urbanization | 5 Responses

New Study: IPCC Made Fatal Errors In Assumptions About CO2 Which Destroy Global Warming Alarm

By Kenneth Richard on 7. January 2021

CO2 is higher at the Poles than at the Equator. When air warms, CO2 goes down and water vapor goes up. The warming effects of CO2 and water vapor do not add; they oppose each other. This is opposite IPCC claims.

The IPCC claims doubling CO2 from 280 ppm to 560 ppm over the course of several centuries produces a warming of 1.2°C on its own (IPCC TAR). Since this is not enough to induce catastrophic warming or propel CO2 mitigation policies, IPCC models suggest water vapor perpetually rises along with CO2 and warming, and this rising positive water vapor feedback drives this initial 1.2°C warming up to 3°C, 4°C, and beyond.

The problem with this hypothetical model is that observational evidence fails to corroborate it.

A new paper (Lightfoot, 2020) shows that the claims (a) CO2 and air temperature go up and down together, (b) CO2 and water vapor go up and down together, and (c) warming by water vapor can be added to that of CO2 to give enhanced warming are all not observed to occur in the real world.

Instead, when air warms, CO2 falls as water vapor concentrations (40,000 ppm in the tropics, <1,000 ppm at the poles) rise. Again, this fundamentally contradicts IPCC claims.

Image Source: Lightfoot, 2020

The phenomenon of CO2 falling as temperatures rise can be witnessed throughout the world. The author documents the consistently lower CO2 levels at the equator vs. at the poles and cites the Gas Law of Charles/Gay-Lussac to explain how this works physically. But the CO2-falls-as-air-warms phenomenon could also be witnessed in 24-hour periods in forests or tree-covered areas, where CO2 rises from around 300 ppm in the warmth of the afternoon to over 600 ppm before sunrise, when it is cooler (Fennici, 1986).

Image Source: Fennici, 1986

If CO2 falls as water vapor concentrations rise, there can be no perpetually-rising water vapor feedback or catastrophic CO2-induced global warming. As Lightfoot concludes:

“The scientific evidence presented in this study proves air temperature and CO2 concentration do not move up and down together as claimed by the IPCC. Furthermore, the warming effect of water vapor does not add to the warming by CO2. In fact, as the warming effect of CO2 concentration increases that of water vapor falls.”

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Posted in CO2 and GHG, IPCC, Scepticism | 9 Responses

Very Inconvenient Alps Glacier History…Top Glaciologists: Alps Were Ice-Free 6000 Years Ago

By P Gosselin on 6. January 2021

Alps ice-free…6000 years ago, when CO2 was much lower than today’s levels.

The latest Klimaschau report, No. 6, looks at glaciers in the Alps over the course of much the Holocene.

It turns out that Most of the Alps were ice-free 6000 years ago, glaciologists have discovered.

The video presents a new paper authored by glaciologists Bohleber et al, 2020 of the Austrian Academy of Science. The Austrian-Swiss team discovered from ice cores that the 3500-meter high Weißseespitze summit was ice free 5900 years ago.

Much warmer in the early Holocene

Next Klimaschau shows why the Alps were ice-free 6000 years ago by using a chart by Heiri et al 2015, which shows it was some 2°C warmer than today.

Beginning some 10,000 years ago, after the Ice Age ended, all glaciers below 4000 meters elevation in the East Alps melted away over the years that followed. Then beginning 6000 years ago, cooling started again and the glaciers returned (neoglaciation). Today temperatures in the Alps are still well below early Holocene levels.

Today’s glacial retreat very much in debate

5300 years ago, Ötzi succumbed to injuries just a few kilometers from the Weißseespitze, says Lüning. “The historical glacier melt show that today’s glacier retreat is not a new phenomenon. Whether or not there will be another complete melting of the East Alps glaciers remains a scientific debate.”

Also, you’ll find many more non-alarmist articles on glaciers here.

All images cropped from Klimaschau, Ausgabe 6

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Posted in Glaciers | 8 Responses

Climate Change Blamed For Lake Victoria Record High Levels (After Being Blamed For Low Levels)!

By P Gosselin on 5. January 2021

Science absurdity…

“Climate experts” blame climate change for Lake Victoria record high levels, after blaming climate change for the low levels in 2006.

Today we look at one particular segment of Dr. Sebastian Lüning’s highly interesting, newly released climate change news show Klimaschau (Climate View).

Very low level in 2006

In it he examines Lake Victoria in Africa.

Some years ago, in 2006-2007, Lake Victoria in Africa reached near record low levels. The culprit of course, according to the world’s leading “experts”, was climate change due to manmade CO2 emissions. For example, Global Nature Fund Director Udo Gattenlöhner warned (translated from the German):

We are seeing the first effects of climate change on Lake Victoria and other lakes around the world. Without a rapid reduction in greenhouse gases by the industrial countries, the basis for life for millions of people is threatened.”

Austrian national daily Der Standard warned that the African lake was “drying out” in an article titled: “When a lake disappears”.

Today: “historic high level”

But then last summer, after months of rains, it was reported by EOS that Lake Victoria levels had since reached a “historic” high level:

Lake Victoria water level changes from 1950 to 2014.

In his video, the German geologist says that the cause of the high level was the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which lead to a doubling of the rainfall in the region.

Lake Victoria in fact recorded its lowest level in the early 1920s, bac when atmospheric CO2 was at levels near 300 ppm.

Climate change also blamed for high lake level

So why has Lake Victoria reached record high levels and flooded homes and hotels? According to Lüning, the “experts”, like Dr. Ramond Omollo, are again blaming (you guessed it!) climate change.

Lüning summarizes the science behind Lake Victoria:

No matter if it’s high or low, manmade climate change will be blamed for all the water level changes in Lake Victoria. But serious scientists remind that the natural fluctuations need to be taken into account in order to avoid contradictory conclusions in the future.”

All images cropped from Klimaschau, Ausgabe 3

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Posted in Drought and Deserts | 12 Responses

Huge Database Of Studies Documenting Meters-Higher Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Swells Again In 2020

By Kenneth Richard on 4. January 2021

In 2020, scientists continued to publish papers affirming global sea levels are today about 2 meters lower than they were a few thousand years ago.

During the last interglacial (~116 to 128 thousand years ago), when CO2 peaked at just 280 ppm but surface temperatures were so much warmer that much less water was locked up on land as ice, sea levels were “at least ~7 m to ~9 m above present” and they “could have been as high as 11-13 m above present” at some locations (Muh et al., 2020).

“Corals with closed-system histories collected from patch reefs on NPI have ages of 128-118 ka and ooids/peloids from beach ridges have closed-system ages of 128-116 ka. Elevations of patch reefs indicate a LIG paleo-sea level of at least ∼7 m to ∼9 m above present. Beach ridge sediments indicate paleo-sea levels of ∼5 m to ∼14 m (assuming subsidence, ∼7 m to ∼16 m) above present during the LIG. …. Results of this study show that at the end of the LIG paleo-sea levels could have been as high as 11-13 m above present (at localities close to North American ice sheets) to as little as 5-8 m above present (at localities distant from North American ice sheets).”

During the Mid-Holocene sea surface temperatures were also considerably warmer despite CO2 levels only reaching ~265 ppm. Yet at that time sea levels were about 2 or more meters higher than they are today according to an ever-accumulating body of paleo-evidence.

Since 2019, over 40 new studies have been added to the NoTricksZone sea level database:

Holocene Sea Levels 2+ Meters Higher

Below is a sampling from this past year’s additions.

Bhattacharya, 2020 Western India, +2 m higher than present

“The Mid-Holocene SL [sea level] that is radiocarbon dated to 7.3 cal yr BP and 5.1 cal BP was ~2 m higher than the present sea level.”

Toniolo et al., 2020 Brazil, +2.9 m higher than present

“In South Brazil, vermetids indicate sea level fall of 2.9 m during the last 4.0 ka. … [T]he last 4.0 cal ka BP, with maximum elevation of + 2.9 m around 4.0 cal ka BP (oldest sample), minimum of + 0.5 m at 0.9 cal ka BP (youngest sample) and average sea level falling velocity of 6.6 cm per century. … The RSL variation curve of São Francisco do Sul (SC) shows smooth fall trend from 2.9 ± 0.5 m at 4.0 cal ka BP until the modern sea level (zero), which is in accordance with the paleo-sea level data obtained from vermetids and compiled by Angulo et al. (2006) for the Brazilian coastal region between 3°S and 28°S (Fig. 6).”

Tanabe, 2020 Japan, +2-3 m higher than present (rate: 40-70 mm/yr)

“During 7-4 ka, the sea level was 2-3 m higher than the present level, and at 3 ka, it fell to -2 m TP. After 2 ka, the sea level stood at the present level. … The following durations, vertical displacements, and rates of sea-level rise have been inferred for MWP1D: 7.6-7.5 ka, 6 m, and 60 mm/yr in the Caribbean Sea (Blanchon et al., 2002) … The rates of three sea-level jumps in Tokyo Bay were >40-70 mm/yr for TB1, >20-50 mm/yr for TB2, and >20-30 mm/yr for TB3.”

Damien et al., 2020 Arabian Gulf, +2.5 m higher than present

“These different trends can be explained by different local conditions. Recent work carried out in northeastern Kuwait estimated a +3.5 m asl [higher than present] highstand (~ 5000–3500 cal. years BP) from beach ridges studied (Reinink-Smith 2015). This highstand is about 2 to 2.5 m higher than the previous maximum identified in the area (Gunatilaka 1986). This new result seems more in line with our data, pushing back the Holocene highstand dating. … [L]andforms associated with this highstand [about 6000 years ago] are today located between 1 and 3 m above the current sea-level.”

King et al., 2020 New Zealand, +2.65 m above present

“Regional tectonics dominate the relative sea-level signature across much of New Zealand, and trends of uplift and subsidence can vary significantly depending on the timescale of analysis. … Clement et al. (2016) addressed the problem of regional variations in relative sea-level history by integrating a broad selection of mostly published preexisting local sea-level proxy data to generate a series of relative sea-level curves for different parts of New Zealand. … In their study, a highstand in the northernmost North Island was identified from 8.1–7.3 ka BP (0.6–1.4 kyr prior to Gibb (1986) in agreement with Australian records (e.g. Horton et al. 2007; Lewis et al. 2013)), reaching ∼2.65 m above present mean sea level, before falling to present values between 7.8 and 6.4 ka.”

Areias et al., 2020 Brazil, +4 m higher than present

“At 3700 cal. years BP the RSL was localized at around +4 m above the present sea level, representing the Holocene eustatic maximum for the Rio de Janeiro coast. Estimated SST obtained from the stable isotopes of the aragonitic vermetids was ~20 °C. At ~3300 cal. years BP during the RSL fall the SST reached its upper-Holocene maximum temperature of ~22 °C. At ~2000 cal. years BP, the RSL was +2 m and an intensification of the upwelling events brought about lower SST (~17 °C) in the intertidal/supratidal settings than offshore. … The following period (from ~1900 to ~1300 cal. years BP), characterized by a continuous sea-level fall, recorded a SST of ~20.5 °C, higher than before. … These data show that in the southeastern Brazilian coast the RSL passed from ~ + 4 m at around 3700 cal. years BP to ~ + 1.30 m at 1300 cal. years BP (e.g., Spotorno-Oliveira et al., 2016).”

Martins et al., 2020 SE Brazil, +2.4 m above present

“In Armação dos Búzios city, north of Rio de Janeiro State (SE Brazil), Jesus et al. (2017) recognized recently the following evolutionary stages of sea level during the Holocene: a sea-level lower than the current between 8148 and 6300 cal yr BP; a rise in sea level between 6300 and 4500 cal yr BP; a transgressive maximum of about 2.4 m above the present level at 4700–4500 cal yr BP; a sea-level drop from 4500 cal yr BP until the present.”

Parker et al., 2020 East Saudi Arabia, +2.8 – 3.75 m higher than present

“The sediments record rapid transgression during the early Holocene with a mid-Holocene high-stand immediately prior to 6880-6560 cal. BP when the upper limit for the palaeo Mean Highest High tide water (MHHW) was 2.8-3.10 m above present day mean sea level. Transgression continued until shortly after 5575-5310 cal. BP with an upper limit to the palaeo-MHHW of 3.75 m above present sea levels.”

Amato et al., 2020 Italy, current coast still underwater just 300 years ago (0.3 ka)

“During MIS5‐2 shallow marine‐coastal environments turned into fluvial‐marshy environments in response to the last glacial sea‐level fall. At the beginning of the Holocene, rapid sea‐level rise caused a marine transgression that carved a steep cliff >300 m inland (Figure 9a). The MFS, dated at ca. 7.0 ka, was followed by the establishment of an open natural coastal environment that persisted until Roman age. The small sheltered bay of the Fusandola S. paleomouth may have hosted the Roman harbor (Figure 9b). … In 1260 CE, a new harbor with a long quay existed, probably that built by Manfredi di Svevia (Figure 9c). Our chronological and geochemical data evidence the construction of a later new harbor during the 17th–18th centuries, providing independent support to the iconographic evidence from 17th to 18th century CE maps (Figure 9d). During the last century, the harbor structures were covered once again. The latest phase of coastal restoration took place in 2016 CE (Figure 9e).”

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"Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" - Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English - by Pierre L. Gosselin

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