NoTricksZone: "Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" – Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany

German Conservationists Score Win In Battle To Protect 1000-Year Old “Grimm’s Fairytale Forest” From Green Insanity

By P Gosselin on 18. May 2022

The German state of Hesse has one of Europe’s largest contiguous and undisturbed forest areas: the Reinhardswald, also known as the “treasure house of European forests” or “Grimm’s fairytale forest”.

The legal fight to rescue the treasured forest from windpark industrialization has begun.

Though the mass environmental crime has already begun, conservationists are beginning to mobilize in earnest. Image: Rettetdenreihandswwald.de.

20,000,000 square meters to be deforested

Tragically, green energy zealots have managed to gain approval for the construction of wind turbines on 7 so-called priority areas with a total of about 2000 hectares (= 20 million m²) in the thousand-year-old Reinhardswald.

The first 18 turbines have recently been approved, see map here. But approved is not built. Several lawsuits have since been filed. Plans are already underway on other areas in the Reinhardswald: 10 turbines are to be built on the KS26 location, 9 more on KS14.

More than 50 gigantic wind turbines planned

And that would be only the beginning: Three areas are available beyond that. In total, 50 or more of these gigantic wind turbines could be built in the Reinhardswald.

The rescue begins

Fortunately, the greed and enviro-criminal behavior is finally being met with stiff resistance from German conservationists. The battle to save the famous forest will be a long one. Finally there’s been a bit of good news.

=================================

COURT STOPS WIND INDUSTRY IN REINHARDSWALD

By Rettet den Reinhardswald

The construction of the largest wind industrial area in Hesse in the heart of the 1000-year-old Reinhardswald has been stopped by the courts (for the time being). Lack of species protection precautions is only one of many conflict issues that make this insane project including 14 km of road construction impossible

The excavators were already set to go, but your commitment and donations have paid off! The construction of the huge wind industry area in one of the last, undisturbed forest areas in Germany has been stopped by a court ruling. The clearing of the forest areas, i.e. the forcible removal of tree roots from the sensitive ecosystem of the forest floor, has been halted for the time being.

All in all, the killing of the strictly protected dormouse in the 1000-year-old forest is only one of numerous problems because of which several environmental associations and communities have filed a complaint with the Administrative Court in Kassel.

In addition, there are numerous other violations of the permit conditions, e.g. the failure to comply with the requirements for amphibian protection. With our own eyes, we documented, among other things, huge rainwater-filled channels in the vicinity of the construction areas, which were populated with more than 40 amphibians (strictly protected Alpine newts, threadfin newts) and reported them to the Kassel Regional Council. Only a few days later we found these biotopes driven through and filled up (see photos). There is no trace of the newts….

Ruling: https://verwaltungsgerichtsbarkeit.hessen.de/…/rodung…

Donations to support the lawsuit: https://bit.ly/rdrfbspenden

The wind industry area in the Reinhardswald must be stopped! Hesse’s largest, (still) intact forest needs your help.

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics, Green Follies | 7 Responses

Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998

By Kenneth Richard on 16. May 2022

A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.

CO2 has risen by about 50 ppm since 1998 (367 to 418 ppm).

Interestingly, upper-air measurements of temperature from balloon-borne sensor radiosonde data, shown below in the image from a new study (Madonna et al., 2022), suggest there was more warming from the early 1980s to late 1990s – when CO2 only rose about 25 ppm (341 to 367 ppm) – than there has been this century.

Radiosonde measurements appear to depict mostly flat temperatures trends since 1998 in both the Northern Hemisphere (25°N to 70°N) and tropics (25°S to 25°N).

Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022

About those CO2-Temperature mismatches…

From 1905-1945 annual human CO2 emissions hovered around one gigaton of carbon, or 1 GtC/yr.

But according to the graphical depiction of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) shown in Kennedy et al., 2019, SSTs rose about 0.6°C to 0.7°C during these 40 years.

Emissions grew from 1 to 5 GtC/yr from 1945 to 1975 and then from 5 to 9 GtC/yr from 1975 to 2012. But during these 30- and 37-year periods SSTs cooled -0.1°C and warmed 0.3°C, respectively.

So in the 67 years from 1945 to 2012, net global SST warming was only about 0.2°C (0.03°C per decade) even though human CO2 emissions exploded from 1 to 9 GtC/yr during these decades, whereas the global SST warming was about ~0.65°C (0.16°C per decade) in the 40 years from 1905 to 1945 when CO2 emissions were a relatively flat 1 GtC/yr.

If human CO2 emissions were driving Earth’s surface temperature trends, why is there such a mismatch between the trajectory of the emissions versus the surface temperatures?

Image (global SSTs, top) Source: Kennedy et al., 2019

Posted in CO2 and GHG, Emissions, Oceans | 14 Responses

DWD Dives Deep In The Archives To 1961-1900 Reference Period To Claim April 2022 Was “Somewhat Too Warm”

By P Gosselin on 15. May 2022

Germany’s DWD national weather service has reported the data results for Germany for April, 2022.

“Record snow” in some regions helped cool April 2022 in Germany. Illustration photo only. Photo: Copyright P. Gosselin

Heavy snow, hard frosts

The first two weeks of the Easter month were fickle and varied bringing stormy episodes, heavy snow in some regions, hard night frosts and the first days of summer temperatures. Then, during the second ten days of the month, dry and stable weather prevailed. This was followed by a sunny Easter period and signs of the flora and fauna continuing to awake after winter. A small depression over the south at the end of the month was a gradual indication of the coming period of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

1.2°C cooler than the valid climate mean

Compared to the currently applicable 1991–2020 reference period, the April 2022 was 1.2 degrees COOLER than the mean. But why does the DWD claim in its press release to the media that April was all in all “somewhat too warm”?

Using an ancient, cooler reference period

To do this the German DWD weather agency neither used the now expired 1981 – 2010 reference period nor the the 1971-2000 period to make the comparison, but rather it went deep in the archives to the 1961 – 1990 period. Only this way were they able to finally say April, 2022, was 0.4°C warmer than the mean. These are the tricks the DWD pulls in order to fabricate a press release to call an otherwise cool month a “warm” one.

During the second ten days of the month, the figures settled around the average for April. The lowest temperature nationwide was measured on April 4th in Meßstetten on the Swabian Alb (-14.6°C). The highest monthly temperature of 26.0 °C was recorded on April 13th in Wolfach 60 km further west in the central part of the Black Forest.

“Record depths of snow”

With around 55 liters per square meter (l/m²), precipitation in April was just under 5 per cent less than the average precipitation of 58 l/m² recorded during the ancient 1961–1990 reference period. Low pressure brought plenty of precipitation during the first ten days of the month and even saw record depths of snow in the central area.

Sunny coastal regions and cloudy low mountain ranges

At 195 hours, the sunshine duration in April was around 20 per cent higher than the average figure of 154 hours for the ancient 1961–1990 period. Compared to 1991–2020, the deviation was 5 per cent higher than normal. After a number of dull days, the sunshine after Easter made up for lost ground. Coastal areas were particularly sunny in April, recording over 200 hours of sunshine. The Baltic Sea coast even received over 250 hours whereas the central low mountains saw much less with 150 hours.

All the monthly values stated in this press release are provisional figures and the data used for the last two days of the month are based on forecasts.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Misc. | 3 Responses

Leaked EU Document: Citizens, Industry May See Severe Gas Rationing Coming Autumn, Potential Economic Collapse

By P Gosselin on 14. May 2022

Leaked EU document on gas supply

By Blackout News

Russia has already suspended gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay roubles. The same threatens all European countries. The EU is therefore asking countries to share gas if Russia stops supplying it. The Spanish newspaper El País has now published the contents of a leaked document.

EU wants to shut down industry first in case of gas shortage

The European Commission plans to approve an energy-saving plan on 18 May to deal with a possible sudden disruption of Russian gas supplies. Brussels warns that in an emergency the measures will affect almost all EU partners. Even countries with other sources of supply than Russia would have to share their gas with the countries affected by the cut. In addition, Brussels is calling for energy rationing to start with industry. Companies in a country with full supply should not have a competitive advantage over countries affected by a limitation by Moscow.

States can introduce their own gas supply contingency plans

Brussels will use the Security of Supply Regulation, in place since 2017, to enforce measures to ensure the supply of sufficient gas to protected customers, such as private households and social institutions in all countries. Each affected country can declare a state of emergency and introduce its own rationing rules at national level, according to the regulations. In addition, countries with supply problems can invoke the solidarity clause provided for in the Community regulation. This could force their neighbours to meet their needs.

Other key points:

In the event of a full Russian gas cut:

Containment measures would be taken in almost all EU countries.
.Consumption would first be reduced in the industrial sector.
In an emergency, the states can impose rationing or suspension of supplies.
EU believes it can replace two thirds of Russian gas
EU calling on private households to turn down thermostat coming winter

Read entire article at Blackout News (English) here.

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics | 3 Responses

“Russia Exporting More Oil Than Before War”…India, China Snapping Up Tankers Of Oil At Large Discounts

By P Gosselin on 13. May 2022

Meanwhile western countries are getting pummeled by inflation, shaky supply chains, economic pain.

German energy site Blackout News here reports that Russia’s oil exports remain unfazed despite the embargos by western countries.

“In the second month of the war on Ukraine, Russia exported more oil than a year earlier, despite the oil embargo, notes Blackout News. “According to the report, Russian oil is going to Asia in tankers. Although Russia is giving a hefty discount, given the drastic increase in prices, revenues have barely dropped from last year.”

So who is snapping up the oil? India, the world’s third-largest oil importer – all thanks to ” heavy discounts of up to $40 per barrel”. Still, Russia is making enough cash to keep the state afloat.

7 million barrels exported DAILY

To give some scale of the huge volume of oil Russia produces. Blackout News adds:

“In 2021, Russia produced about 10.5 million barrels of crude oil and oil products daily. Of that, 7 million barrels a day went into exports. This is roughly equivalent to 13 percent of the world’s oil trade. Of this, 2.7 million barrels of oil and 1.5 million barrels of oil products went to Europe before the war. This represents more than half of Russia’s exports. Much of this was transported by pipeline and rail.”

Blackout News also writes that though Chinese state-owned companies are “holding back” on doing oil deals with Russia, “private Chinese oil companies are already buying up large quantities of Russian oil at deep discounts, according to a report in the Financial Times.”

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Climate Politics | 7 Responses

New Study: Half The 2000-2019 Global Ocean Warming Has Been From Internal Fluxes, Not Surface Forcing

By Kenneth Richard on 12. May 2022

Since 2000 there has been a natural reduction in net air-sea fluxes at the same time there has been rapid warming in the Indian Ocean. This affirms anthropogenic surface forcing cannot explain the recent warming in at least half the global ocean.

The Indian Ocean covers approximately 20% of the ocean surface, but this basin accounts for one-half of the overall warming in the global ocean’s top 700 meters from 2000 to 2019 (McMonigal et al., 2022). The Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sectors have accumulated much less heat content in the last two decades.

It is often assumed that increases in ocean heat content can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas surface forcing. But scientists have pointed out that internal ocean processes and natural heat transport (circulation) can explain decadal-scale warming (and cooling) trends in the global ocean.

For example, Large and Yeager (2012) determined that the global sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend during the 1984-2006 period can be predominantly explained by “diminished ocean cooling due to vertical ocean processes” rather than anthropogenic climate change.

“A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period.”

Image Source: Large and Yeager (2012)

Likewise, McMonigal and colleagues have now determined the 0-700 m warming trend in the Indian Ocean “has been driven by significant changes in oceanic fluxes and not by surface forcing.” In other words, it is not the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration increases driving warming, but “the ocean has been driving a rapid increase in Indian Ocean heat content” because the “change must be due to the gyre circulation.”

Image Source: McMonigal et al., 2022

And if natural processes in ocean heat transport can explain warming in the Indian Ocean, it is not a stretch to assume the same explanation can be applied for warming trends in the rest of the global ocean too.

Posted in Natural Variability, Oceans | 10 Responses

A “Weakening Warming Trend Of The Last 40 Years Is Apparent”, Says German Expert

By P Gosselin on 11. May 2022

Fritz Vahrenholt: The transition to green energies and the missing warming

By Kalte Sonne

Dear ladies and gentlemen,

During the energy crisis that has become visible in Germany and Europe over the past few months, things have gotten quieter about the supposedly imminent climate emergency. On the one hand, energy prices and security of supply have pushed the climate issue into the background. On the other hand, a weakening of the warming trend of the last 40 years is apparent.

The temperature curve of the satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama UAH has been oscillating between -0.2 and 0.4 degrees for 20 years and seems to have remained stable since 2015, as shown in the next graph in the enlargement. (Source: woodfortrees). The mean value is drawn in green- it shows a slightly decreasing trend since 2015. Why hasn’t this been reported?

What are the reasons for this stagnation?

CO2 concentrations in the air have continued to rise unabated. It is true that global annual CO2 emissions have been more or less constant for some years now, at 40 billion tons of CO2. Slightly more than half is absorbed by the oceans and plants, so that currently each year the equivalent of about 2.5 ppm CO2 is added to the air concentration. In 2015, there were 401 ppm of CO2 in the air; in 2021, there were 416 ppm. At this rate, by the way, we would never reach the IPCC’s scary scenarios of 800 to 1000 ppm in 2100.

No, the lack of warming must have other reason

What has been the amount of natural warming in the last 30 years?
And how big is the natural cooling in the next 30 years?

A change in global temperature can also happen naturally. We know that clouds have decreased by about 2% after the turn of the millennium, and that for the last ten years cloud cover has been stable at a low level. Second, there are oceanic temperature cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO, which increased sharply from 1980 to the beginning of this millennium (by 0.5 degrees, after all), has remained at maximum since then, and is now weakening slightly again (see next graph).

The United States Weather and Oceanographic Administration, NOAA, writes that the AMO can amplify anthropogenic warming in the warm phase and make it disappear in the cold phase. According to NOAA, the AMO is a naturally occurring change in North Atlantic temperatures that has occurred for at least 1000 years with alternating warm and cold phases of 20-40 years. Add to this the weakening solar radiation since 2008, and further significant warming beyond 1.5 degrees is unlikely in the next 30 years.

Sea ice melt has stalled

The stagnant trend of temperatures that has been observed for several years can also be seen in the halted decline in Arctic sea ice extent reported by the European Copernicus program in March (see next graph

This is actually good news.

Wouldn’t it be time for climate researchers to bring these trends to the attention of politicians and the public? After all, politicians are currently readjusting the priorities of energy supply. While until last year’s price explosion and the aftermath of the Ukraine war it was apparently taken for granted that climate impacts would be the sole determining factor for energy policy, we are all now being made aware of the importance of security of supply and price trends.

However, German policymakers are still reacting inadequately. They believe they can solve the problem of self-generated energy shortages due to the double phase-out of coal and nuclear energy by simply building more wind farms and solar plants. It must always be remembered that in 2021 the share of wind and solar energy was just over 5% of primary energy supply (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables). Even in a good windy year, it would not be much more than 6%.

Politicians do not have the necessary courage to repeal the coal phase-out law, to stop the nuclear phase-out, to lift the natural gas fracking ban and the ban on CO2 capture at coal-fired power plants. Not yet.

Gas-fired power plants like the one in Leipzig are still being built to replace coal-fired power plants with domestic lignite. Industry is already further ahead. Volkswagen has postponed the conversion of two of its own coal-fired power plants into gas-fired power plants indefinitely. This statement by CEO Diess was not widely reported in Germany, but it was abroad.

The U.S. government is also repositioning itself. John Kerry, the U.S. government’s climate envoy, for whom the 1.5-degree target was previously the sole political guideline, is now putting things into perspective and, in view of skyrocketing energy prices, saying that 1.8 degrees should be quite sufficient as a target. China, India and Southeast Asia, whose growth path is threatened by the price explosion, are practicing a renaissance of coal production.

That’s where we should listen when Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg says: “It’s unrealistic to bring global emissions to zero by 2050… a 2.5 degree world is still better than a 3.5 degree world.”

Let us reassure Mr. Marotzke: a 2.5 degree world will not be achieved in this century because natural variations in climate dampen anthropogenic warming. Had this been adequately accounted for in climate models, we would all have been spared much public panic and flawed policy decisions.

With best wishes

Fritz Vahrenholt

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Misc. | 13 Responses

Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming In The 20th And 21st Centuries

By Kenneth Richard on 9. May 2022

Global sea surface temperatures have only been warming at a rate of about 0.06°C per decade since 1950.

According to Dieng et al., 2017, global sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled slightly (-0.006°C/decade) from 2003 to 2013. This reduced the overall 1950-2014 warming rate to 0.059°C per decade.

Image Source: Dieng et al., 2017

The NCAR/HadCRUT4 global SST record from buoys and ARGO floats also show only modest warming in the last 3 decades. The natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event is mostly responsible for the overall increasing rate.

Image Source: NCAR

Since 1871 there has been only modest warming in the Pacific and Atlantic (Zanna et al., 2019). Perhaps the Indian Ocean has a clearly detectable warming trend.

Image Source: Zanna et al., 2019

According to the Oceans 2k (2015) collection of globally reconstructed sea surface temperatures over the last 2000 years, there has been no alarming rise in temperatures that stands out (like a hockey stick) during the 20th century either.

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015 and Supplementary Information

On a deeper note, from 1955 to 201o the 0-2000 m ocean only warmed 0.09°C (Levitus et al., 2012).

Image Source: Levitus et al., 2012

So why, exactly, should we be panicked and alarmed about any of this?

Posted in Oceans, Paleo-climatology | 7 Responses

Sure It’s Been Warm, But The Global Surface Temperature Rise Has Stalled…Stagnant Over The Past Decade

By P Gosselin on 7. May 2022

By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated by P. Gosselin )

How was April, 2022?

The Copernicus program provides monthly updates, including for April, 2022. Parts of Europe and North America were colder than the 1990-2020 average. Northeast Africa and Central Asia were warmer.

An extensive region of much-above-average temperatures stretched from north-eastern Africa across the Middle East to central and southern Asia. Pre-monsoon temperatures were exceptionally high over Pakistan and northern India, following record highs in March; the heatwave led to critical water and power shortages as well as damage to crops. Heatwave conditions were also experienced in Egypt and Sudan. High spring temperatures were reported in the Central Asian Republics. Temperatures were also much higher than average over Greenland, easternmost Russia, and the Ross and Weddell sectors of Antarctica. Other regions of above-average temperature include the southern and south-western USA, Mexico, parts of the Far East, and northern Australia.

April 2022 was much colder than average over central and western Canada and much of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Temperatures were also below the 1991-2020 average over several other land regions, including north-western Africa, South East Asia, southernmost Africa, south-western Australia and East Antarctica.

Air temperatures were substantially above average over parts of all the major ocean basins. Below-average marine air temperatures were located in the tropical and southern sub-tropical eastern Pacific, indicative of continuing La Niña conditions.

Globally, April 2022 was:

0.28°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for April
the sixth warmest April on record, though only marginally colder than April 2018
more than 0.2°C cooler than the warmest Aprils, which were in 2016 and 2020
marginally warmer than April 2010, the warmest April prior to April 2016.”

It is certainly also interesting to look at the last 12 months. Here, subtle shades of red predominate, which according to the legend corresponds to a slight warming.

Temperatures averaged over the last twelve-month period were:

above average over most land areas and the majority of the ocean surface
markedly above the 1991-2020 average in a region stretching from northern Arabia to western Siberia, and over northern Siberia, central North America, north-western and central Africa, East Antarctica and the Weddell Sea
close to average over much of Europe, but above average in the east of the continent, and to a lesser extent over a band eastward from Ireland to southern Scandinavia
below average over some land areas, including parts of northern Canada and Alaska, north-eastern South America, southern Africa, India, Australia and Antarctica
below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, where the La Niña event that peaked in late 2020 reintensified later in 2021 and continued into 2022
also below average over the Chukchi Sea, parts of the eastern North Pacific and several oceanic areas in the southern hemisphere.”

The end of the report offers some interesting points:

There is general agreement among datasets that the period from 2015 to 2020 is much warmer globally than any previous such period. There is also agreement that the global temperature has risen at an average rate close to 0.2°C per decade since the late 1970s. There is nevertheless still some spread between the datasets for recent years, such as for 2020, and the annual average temperature anomalies for these years from ERA5 are generally higher than those from the five other datasets considered. The differences range from 0.02 to 0.08°C for 2016-2020. The range is 0.00 to 0.07°C if air temperature over sea is replaced by sea-surface temperature for ERA5 and the other dataset for which sea-surface temperature was not used by design. The remaining differences depend partly on the extent to which datasets represent the relatively warm conditions that have predominated over the Arctic and Antarctic during these years. Differences elsewhere in estimates of sea-surface temperature and surface air temperature over land have been further factors.

The average surface air temperature analysis homepage explains more about the production and reliability of the values presented here, but has yet to be updated to include the new information on dataset spread mentioned above.”

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature | 6 Responses

How The German ‘Zeit’ And WMO Misled The Public In Reporting On Global Natural Disaster Trends

By P Gosselin on 6. May 2022

WMO, Zeit caught cooking doomsday statistics on natural disasters.

The third part of the 110th German Klimaschau looks at natural disasters and claims by organizations and media that they’ve gotten much worse.

Five times more weather related disasters than in the 1970s?

For example, citing WMO report No. 1267 from 2021, German Zeit reported that the number of weather and climate related natural disasters “has climbed markedly since 1970”. Adding: “Between 2000 to 2009, there were five times more than in the 1970s, reported the World Meteorological Organization.”

Courtesy: EIKE.

The WMO chart above indeed depicts five times more “reported disasters” during the 2000-2009 period compared with the 1970s. But the 2010 – 2019 period saw a drop compared with 2000 – 2009, something Zeit didn’t bother to mention. That drop alone tells us that the number of disasters does not correlate with the global temperature.

More accurate data reporting today

Another point that the media failed to properly communicate to the public was the title of the chart: “Number of reported disasters”. During the 1970s and 1980s, the data recording of natural disasters was incomplete and the system was in the process of being built up. Even Zeit admits it (just once) in its article, writing: “The UN officials attribute this both to climate change and more precise recording.”

Unfortunately, Zeit neglected the more accurate recording as a reason for the greater counted number of recorded disasters throughout the article and instead misled it’s readers with the title: “The number of natural disasters has risen markedly.” In fact, the recording is what has increased.

Ignoring the good news

Also Zeit ignored one particularly important WMO chart showing the number of deaths occurring due to natural disasters:

Chart source: WMO

Obviously the above chart doesn’t convey the badly desired doomsday message, and so Zeit decided to make no mention of it and so left its readers in the dark. For Zeit, good news are bad news.

Misleading economic losses

Finally, the chart used by the WMO to show the reported economic losses was likely designed to be misleading, or it was just sloppy work.

Chart source: WMO

Though the figures were adjusted to take inflation into account, the WMO did not adjust the numbers to take population and wealth growth into account. Today there’s far more property out there to get damaged.

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Posted in Activism, Alarmism, Drought and Deserts, Flood, Hurricanes/Tornados | 2 Responses

New Study: ‘The Reasons For The Warming In The Arctic Are Still Controversial’

By Kenneth Richard on 5. May 2022

Of all the possible reasons for a warming Arctic since 2002, it has been determined that “the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor” is the dominant cause.

A new study says that when it comes to downwelling long-wave, water vapor, clouds, and temperature are the main factors determining its intensity.

“As is well known, atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and the atmospheric temperature are the main factors affecting the intensity of the downward long-wave radiation.“

Since the early 2000s, the Arctic has been rapidly warming. Some possible reasons for a warming Arctic posited in many recent studies include:

Albedo feedback

Lapse rate feedback

Planck feedback

Water vapor feedback

Cloud radiative forcing

Ocean heat transport

Vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction

Poleward propagation of Rossby waves

Phases of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole

Positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Ural blocking

Changes in atmospheric circulation (i.e., the PNA)

But the winner of the most likely culprit for winter warming since 2002? Based on a diagnostic analysis of the surface energy balance equation, it’s water vapor.

“[I]t has been determined that the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor is the dominant factor affecting Arctic amplification in the autumn and winter.”

Image Source: Gao et al., 2022

Anyone else notice the factor(s) that go unmentioned?

Posted in Arctic, Natural Variability | 9 Responses

Ski Industry Expert: Austrian Ski Resort Temperature Rise Over Past 50 Years “Not Statistically Significant”

By P Gosselin on 4. May 2022

Austrian ski industry researcher Günther Aigner looks at the winter temperatures over the past 50 years at the famous Schmittenhöhe ski resort in the Austrian Alps, some 1,954 meters above sea level.

In the video, Aigner looks at how much winters have warmed over the period in question and whether it has had any significant impact on skiing. Global warming alarmists have warned that skiing would be dramatically curtailed as snowy winters disappear due to warming.

Aigner shows the winter mean temperature data, whose linear trend shows there’s been an increase of 1.0°C over the past 50 years. A trend Aigner describes as “not statistically significant” and well within the range of natural variability:

Cropped here.

Note that the upward trend is primarily due to the very cold period in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Overall there’s been little linear change over the past 35 years.

Interestingly, the warmest 3-year period occurred in the winters of 1988 – 1990. Four of the top six coldest winters in fact happened in the last 16 years.

The 1.0°C of linear trend warming presented by Aigner means the snowline has moved uphill 150 meters, thus not greatly affecting ski conditions.

What has warmed, Aigner says, are the summers at the ski resort. Here summer temperatures have increased by 3.2°C. That warming probably has more to do with greater number of sunshine hours, and less to do with manmade CO2. For example, Central England temperature has followed along with the number of sunshine hours, and not CO2.

Chart: Met Office UK

So far there has been no hard evidence offered to show that CO2 leads to more sunshine.

In summary, skiers need not worry about snow disappearing from the European Alps and can count on continued excellent conditions for years to come. Ignore the climate doomsayers.

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Posted in Cooling/Temperature | 13 Responses

"Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" - Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany - by Pierre L. Gosselin

COURT STOPS WIND INDUSTRY IN REINHARDSWALD

A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.

Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022

About those CO2-Temperature mismatches…

Image (global SSTs, top) Source: Kennedy et al., 2019

EU wants to shut down industry first in case of gas shortage

States can introduce their own gas supply contingency plans

Since 2000 there has been a natural reduction in net air-sea fluxes at the same time there has been rapid warming in the Indian Ocean. This affirms anthropogenic surface forcing cannot explain the recent warming in at least half the global ocean.

Image Source: Large and Yeager (2012)

Image Source: McMonigal et al., 2022

Global sea surface temperatures have only been warming at a rate of about 0.06°C per decade since 1950.

Image Source: Dieng et al., 2017

Image Source: NCAR

Image Source: Zanna et al., 2019

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015 and Supplementary Information

Image Source: Levitus et al., 2012

WMO, Zeit caught cooking doomsday statistics on natural disasters.

Of all the possible reasons for a warming Arctic since 2002, it has been determined that “the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor” is the dominant cause.

Image Source: Gao et al., 2022

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