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German Professor: 2022-2024 Warming Mostly Linked To Natural Factors, Not CO2

German Professor: 2022-2024 Warming Mostly Linked To Natural Factors, Not CO2

By on 10. July 2025

In his latest newsletter, German professor Fritz Vahrenholt reports how the global average temperature has decreased in June and early July 2025, and has seen a downward trend since January 2025. The deviation from the long-term average of satellite measurements is +0.48 degrees Celsius, with values continuing to drop in July.

Despite this global development, German public broadcasters and parties like the Green Party have been spreading panic about the summer heat. There are even preposterous demands for “heat days off” from work. The number of so-called summerlike days (i.e. temps 25°C and over) has increased from an average of 20-30 in the 1950s to 40-50 per year today.

However, according to Vahrenholt, the primary cause of the current warming observed between 2022 and 2024 is primarily natural phenomena and not CO2. These natural factors are 1) a strong El Niño and 2) an increase in direct solar radiation, attributed to the reduction of aerosols.

Based on NASA CERES satellite measurements from the last 25 years, 80% of the warming is due to cloud thinning and the resulting increase in direct shortwave solar radiation, while only 20% is attributed to the CO2 greenhouse effect. The climate models have not predicted an increase in shortwave radiation and that fewer clouds would actually weaken the greenhouse effect, contradicting the models.

Annual sunshine anomaly in hours for Germany since 1950. More sunshine means warmer temperatures. Reference period is  1961-1990. Source: DWD. 

Vahrenholt also cites a connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and cloud formation and sunshine duration. During high ocean temperatures, clouds are said to be more permeable, allowing more sunlight to pass through. This correlation is supported by a publication in Nature Scientific Reports, showing that sunshine duration follows the cycles of Atlantic temperatures (AMO).

Vahrenholt concludes that current climate policies in Europe and Germany, aiming for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2045, are based on inadequate models because they don’t sufficiently account for the essential mechanisms of warming (especially the role of clouds and direct solar radiation).

In summary, CO2 human CO2 emissions are not the primary driver of our climate. Instead, the main drivers are natural cycles and changes in aerosol concentrations and cloud formation.





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New Study: The Arctic Was 9°C Warmer Than Today During The Holocene Thermal Maximum

By on 8. July 2025

Holocene (11,700 to 8,200 years ago) Arctic (Svalbard) temperatures “were up to 9°C higher than today” according to the authors of a new Nature journal study. At that time CO2 was thought to only hover around 260 ppm.

Svalbard then cooled as CO2 rose for the next 8,000 years – a negative correlation that wholly contradicts the rising-CO2-drives-Arctic-warmth narrative.

Nonetheless, climate models are predicated on the assumption rising human CO2 emissions (RCP 8.5) will lead to a warming of ~8°C by 2100.

Image Source: Auer et al., 2025

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In Bid To Curb Outflow Of Wealthy Citizens, Green-New-Deal Europe Levying Exit Taxes

By on 5. July 2025

As political, social and economic conditions rapidly deteriorate across misgoverned Europe – stemming mainly from climate hysteria policies and open borders – the wealthy are packing up and taking their lives and capital elsewhere. 

High energy prices, climate hysteria, dwindling freedoms, rigid regulations, high crime rates and social decay are eroding the globalist-green utopia.

Hat-tip: Blackout News

Increasingly, European nations are implementing so-called exit taxes to curb the outflow of wealthy citizens to tax havens and to secure their domestic tax bases. Countries like Germany, Norway, and Belgium are spearheading new regulations designed to tax capital gains before individuals emigrate.

This reminds of when Communist East Germany built a wall to keep its citizens from moving out to free market, democratic West Germany in 1961. Today that wall is being replaced by exit taxes.

The UK and the Netherlands are also exploring exit taxes. David Lesperance of Lesperance & Associates notes the significant impact on those with non-liquid assets, as they may lack the immediate funds to cover the tax bill, making emigration a difficult decision.

To illustrate how this works, a German medical student with €800,000 in startup shares could face a €200,000 tax. Norway levies up to 38% on unrealized capital gains and has even closed legal loopholes for evasion. This has prompted prominent Norwegians, such as Ninja Tollefsen and Olympic champion Bjørn Dæhlie, to leave the country.

Germany’s regulations extend to company shareholdings of one percent or more, or those valued over €500,000, with recent reforms including investment funds at tax rates up to 45%.

France imposes a 30% exit tax on share assets exceeding €800,000, while Belgium is introducing a 10% tax on capital gains from July. The US targets wealthy ex-citizens and green card holders. While the UK has not officially adopted an exit tax, financial experts advocate for improved measures.

Switzerland, Italy, and even some US states are becoming attractive for their more favorable tax conditions, highlighting an ongoing global competition for capital.

Green-New-Deal Europe is losing that competition.

Youth are leaving

If the wealthy leaving wasn’t bad enough, the youth are also considering an exit as well, especially in Germany where a significant number of young workers are considering or actively planning to leave the country.

Around 10% of young professionals under 30 are actively considering working abroad in other countries like Switzerland, the US, or Spain.

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New Study Indicates The North Atlantic Is Colder Now Than Any Other Time In The Last 9000 Years

By on 3. July 2025

According to a new study, abrupt (±1-2°C per century) shifts in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) have occurred routinely over the last 9000 years. These decadal- to centennial-scale climate changes were “induced by Holocene summer insolation and atmosphere-ocean internal variability.”

The average SST throughout the 8.2 ka fluctuation was 10.0°C. The average 4.2 ka SST was 8.1°C. And during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1600-1900 CE) the North Atlantic SSTs averaged 7.5°C.

Since 1900, SSTs have been stable to declining, suggesting the modern period is the coldest of the Holocene.

Image Source: Liu et al., 2025

North Atlantic SSTs have not warmed (net) in the last 120 years, or since the late 1800s.

Image Source: Reverdin et al., 2018

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Berlin Moves To Ban Autos From Inside The City. Widespread Chaos Looms

By on 1. July 2025

Just 12 car trips person per year would be allowed!

The Berlin Constitutional Court has declared the “Berlin car-free” referendum admissible, paving the way for a possible drastic reduction in car traffic.

Hat-tip: Blackout News

Cars may soon be banned in Berlin. Image generated by Grok 3 AI 

The court found that the aim of promoting health and climate protection is a legitimate legislative objective and that the draft does not violate fundamental rights.

There is no constitutional right to individual road use.

The initiative aims for a car-free Berlin center in which private car trips would be limited to just twelve per person per year. Exceptions would be for police, emergency services and people with mobility impairments. Delivery traffic and special cases such as services would be able to be approved digitally. The proponents argue that the aim is not to replace combustion engines with electric cars, but to reduce the total number of vehicles around the city center.

“We have won, right down the line: the future of Berlin belongs to safety, climate protection and the health of all Berliners – and not to unrestrained car traffic,” said the Volksentscheid Berlin autofrei (Referendum Berlin car-free) in a statement.

170,000 signatures needed for a referendum

Next, the initiative must collect 170,000 signatures within four months in order to bring about a binding referendum.

The initiative, however, faces opposition from various groups. Business associations, such as the Association of Business Associations in Berlin and Brandenburg (UVB), have warned that a widespread car ban would be a severe blow to the economy in the capital region. They fear reduced customer access, especially for businesses that rely on delivery services or customers traveling by car.

There are also concerns that restricting car use would interfere with property rights, as car owners within the affected zone would be limited in how they could use their vehicles near their homes. Many residents and businesses rely on cars for their daily commutes, deliveries, and other activities. The proposed restrictions, allowing only 12 private car trips per person per year within the city’s S-Bahn ring.

Critics also point to the current state of public transport infrastructure, expressing concerns about “significant bottlenecks” and overcrowding if a large number of car users switch to public transport. While Berlin has an extensive public transport network, it probably isn’t robust enough to handle such a massive shift.

The current conservative-led Senate under Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) has actively opposed traffic reduction policies, campaigning against bicycle lane expansion, speed limits, and parking reductions. Residents should be able to choose their mode of transport, including cars.

While the court has deemed the initiative legally permissible, there remains a number of hurdles, including a potential referendum. Past experiences with referendums in Berlin show that implementation can be challenging due to political resistance.

There are also questions about how the 12-trip limit per person would be enforced, raising concerns about bureaucracy and data privacy.





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Safety Of German Wind Turbines Heightens After 70-Meter Rotor Blade Snaps Off

By on 28. June 2025

A 70-metre-long rotor blade of a V150 wind turbine fell from a height of 123 meters at the Lübbenow wind farm in Germany, heightening concerns about the safety of wind turbines. 

Blackout News here

Rotorblatt stürzt ab: Windkraftanlage beschädigt Feld – Sicherheitsprobleme und Kontrollmängel erneut im Fokus der Diskussion.

AI generated symbol image. Hat-tip: Blackout News.

The affected turbine had been put into operation only 6 years ago, in 2019.

The incident raises questions about just how safe wind turbines really are. The incident is one in a series of technical defects. In January 2017, a rotor blade broke near Zichow (presumably due to a pitch control failure). In 2016: An entire wind turbine tower collapsed in Grimmen. A short time later, a Nordex 149 tower in Güstow had to be taken down for safety reasons. This affected a total of 18 identical turbines in Germany following a collapse in the Ruhr area in 2021 due to a design fault.

The Brandenburg Ministry of the Environment counted five accidents within two and a half years (as of August 2023), but no complete overview exists, as there is no central data collection for the dismantling of turbines and it is unclear who is responsible for the recycling and disposal of old turbine parts.

Not only are wind turbines prone to catastrophic failures, but they severely impact the quality of life of local residents due to the noise pollution they cause, especially in north-westerly winds. The rattling and clattering affect residents, restaurants and tourism. The rapid expansion of wind turbines has been accompanied by inadequate control systems and a lack of consideration for local residents.





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Mollusc Deposits Affirm Arabian Sea Levels Were 2-3 Meters Higher 7000-6000 Years Ago

By on 27. June 2025

Another day, another new study has sea levels 2.5 to 3.2 m higher than present from 7000 to 6000 years ago. This one is from the Arabian Sea (Oman).

Embedded mollusc carbonate deposits dated to the Mid-Holocene have been located far inland from today’s shoreline, documenting the meters-higher relative sea levels at that time.

Sea levels were higher because less water was locked up on land as ice throughout the much warmer Mid-Holocene.

Image Source: Teillet et al., 2025

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Arctic Warming Will Lead To Arctic Cooling, Recent Study Suggests

By on 25. June 2025

A recent paper explains how a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could actually reduce Arctic warming by the end of the century…

…despite the overall trend of Arctic amplification (“the disproportionate warming of the Arctic compared to the global average.”)

Symbol image. Source: NASA

The study shows that a weakening AMOC can partially counteract Arctic amplification, leading to a less severe warming trend in the Arctic, especially in the cold months and near the North Atlantic.

The authors claim a weaker AMOC leads to less sea ice melting, which means the Arctic surface remains brighter (higher albedo), reflecting more sunlight and causing less warming.

Moreover, a slowdown in AMOC causes the ocean to absorb more heat, leading to cooler surface temperature and can also lead to more cooling from the surface up to the mid-troposphere in the Arctic.

The weaker AMOC also increases low-level clouds over the “North Atlantic warming hole,” causing significant localized cooling by reflecting sunlight.

In essence, while Arctic amplification is a major concern, this research suggests that a weakening AMOC could unexpectedly slow down some of that warming through a complex interplay of ice, ocean, and atmospheric changes.

Not warming everywhere

Some areas have been experiencing or are forecast to experience colder than normal temperatures around June 2025:

  • North Atlantic Ocean, south of Greenland (North Atlantic Warming Hole): This region has been a persistent “cold spot” defying global warming.
  • Eastern Europe: Specifically from eastern Italy and the Balkans to Finland, below-average temperatures were noted in May 2025.
  • India: Experienced below-average temperatures in May 2025.
  • Alaska: Monthly temperatures are favored to be below-normal for June 2025.
  • Southern Africa: Saw below-average temperatures in May 2025.
  • Eastern Antarctica: Also experienced negative temperature anomalies in May 2025.
  • Hudson Bay: Negative anomalies were recorded in this region in May 2025.
  • Ukraine (Western parts): Late spring cold spells impacted rapeseed yields in the west.
  • Parts of the Southern and Central Great Plains (USA): this specific area has equal chances for warm, cool, or near-average conditions.
  • Maritimes (Canada): Forecast to have cooler-than-normal temperatures for the summer of 2025.

It’s important to note that global temperatures are generally trending upwards, and even in record-warm years, there can be regional variations and areas experiencing colder-than-normal conditions due to complex atmospheric and oceanic patterns.





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New Study: The Cloud Radiative Effect Is The ‘Crucial Missing Piece’ Explaining 21st Century Warming

By on 23. June 2025

Another observational analysis finds the shortwave effect of clouds is the “the dominant term of the recent increase in absorbed solar radiation” explaining 2001-2024 warming.

According to the authors of a new study, clouds are the primary modulators of the Earth’s shortwave and longwave radiation. Thus, the radiative effects of clouds “play a crucial role in determining the Earth’s energy balance” and “dominate the radiative balance trends.”

Satellite observations indicate that from 2001-2024 there was a 0.45 W/m² per decade increase in solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. This 1 W/m² rising trend in absorbed solar radiation was primarily caused by declining cloud cover.

“The increase in the absorbed solar radiation is driven primarily by a decrease in the reflection of SW radiation by clouds.”

The shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is thus regarded as the “crucial missing piece” in explaining 21st century warming.

“[C]hanges of only a few percent in the relative coverage of the [cloud] regimes produce large cloud radiative signatures that can dominate the radiative balance trends”

Image Source: Tselioudis et al., 2025

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Wind Industry Now Destroying 1000-Year Old German Forest That Inspired Grimm Fairy Tales

By on 22. June 2025

Germany’s environmentally destructive technocracy. 

Hat-tip: Blackout News here.

In the Reinhardswald near Kassel, known as the Fairytale Forest, a previously untouched natural and cultural landscape with trees over 500 years old, is today being irreversibly destroyed. Why? To protect nature and the climate, the wind industry and green proponents claim.

How it’ll look when it’s done. 

Background here.

It’s a great environmental tragedy and crime against nature

The region, which plays a central role in the fairy tales of the Brothers Grimm, is being transformed into a large-scale industrial construction site comprising of 18 large scale turbines.

To build the 244-meter-high wind turbines, large roads are cut into the forest, thousands of trees felled, slopes leveled and large quantities of gravel piled up on the forest floor. All this will cause irreversible damage and destruction to the forest biotope. Critics and conservationists emphasize that the extent of the destruction goes far beyond what one would expect from the construction of a wind turbine in an open field.

The local population, in particular the seven surrounding communities, are protesting unitedly against the project and have organized themselves into citizens’ initiatives. But despite the opposition and ongoing legal proceedings, construction work is progressing rapidly. The project’s critics say the destruction is taking place under the guise of the energy transition and the concerns expressed by the regional population are being totally ignored.

The Reinhardswald, which once embodied German romanticism, is being turned into an industrial area where nature, culture and history are being lost. The fairy-tale forest is becoming a memorial symbolizing the victory of technocracy over attachment to the homeland and the irretrievable loss of a unique ecosystem.





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Public Ridicule Hyped Summer Heat Headlines…Meteorologists Losing Credibility

By on 18. June 2025

Sensationalist weathermen in Germany losing credibility, get mocked and ridiculed. 

Meteorologists are discovering that if they want to get attention from the media and more clicks and and likes (short term), then all they have to do is announce fictional heatwaves that weather models routinely hallucinate 10-14 days out. “Temperatures could soar to 40°C!”

German online Weltwoche here reports on this phenomenon with a recent article titled: “The “heatwave” to be followed by the “red hot wave”: the climate alarmists are taking themselves to the point of absurdity and losing all credibility.”

Image generated by Grok AI

In an attempt to sensationalize hot summer weather to convey climate urgency and panic,some German meteorologists have been bombarding their viewers with alarming headlines, like: “This summer threatens to shatter all weather records!”

These climate alarmists have been fixated on regular weather extremes and using dramatic imagery of storms, droughts, and collapsing Swiss mountains to sway public opinion – while totally ignoring the lack of statistical evidence for an increase in such phenomena.

Weltwoche, reports, however, that the increasingly shrill weather rhetoric is backfiring, leading to greater mistrust among a growing number of skeptics who use social media platforms like X to mock and ridicule the sensationalized claims.

Thanks to social media, Weltwoche concludes that the era of media monopolies on truth is over: “But the shriller the battle cries of the climate alarmists, the less credible they become.”





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New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Will Lead To Widespread Cooling, Sea Ice Expansion

By on 16. June 2025

Scientists have counter-intuitively determined that a melting Antarctic ice sheet serves to mitigate global warming.

The anticipated accelerated melting of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will mean massive amounts of freshwater will enter the Southern Ocean (SO) over the next one hundred years.

According to a new study‘s panoply of SOFIA (Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica) models, a melting AIS will, in turn, cool the SO and Antarctica (the latter by 1°C or more) as well as lead to further expansion of the Southern Hemisphere’s sea ice.

More specifically, as a consequence of future Antarctic ice sheet melt, over the next century the entire 40-70°S region will cool ~0.7°C and sea ice will expand by approximately 2 million km² (per Figure S1 from the study). The lead author already published a 2022 paper documenting “the Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature has a significant and robust cooling trend during 1982–2020,” so the cooling trend has been ongoing for over 40 years already.

The authors of the present study maintain the “response to an increased Antarctic sea ice extent and ocean surface cooling results in global atmospheric impacts,” not just local or regional ones. Specifically, the effect of SO cooling includes a (a) reduction in the global warming rate, (b) troposphere-wide cooling, (c) Eastern tropical Pacific cooling, (d) a delay in the anticipated weakening of the AMOC, (e) a northward shift of the ICTZ (Inner-Tropical Convergence Zone), and (f) a “weakening of the jet stream on its equatorward flank in both hemispheres.”

In other words, the key to reducing the global warming “problem” and its presumed side effects may be to cheer on (or hope for) an accelerated AIS melting over the next century.

“Since most of these responses act opposingly to global warming mechanisms diagnosed from model experiments lacking Antarctic freshwater, our results support the notion of a potential delay of anthropogenic climate change through SO [Southern Ocean] processes.”

Image Source: Xu et al., 2025

For those who say a future accelerated Antarctic ice sheet melt will lead to concerning sea level rise, scientists contend this “problem” may be self-correcting as well.

According to the IPCC and climate models, if Antarctica were to ever warm (and it has not warmed in the last 70 years), this warmth would add more precipitation and thus ice mass to the Antarctic ice sheet (IPCC AR4, Krinner et al., 2007, Palerme et al., 2017). The warming-induced ice mass expansion contributes to a reduction in Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise by 2100. Specifically, a warming Antarctica reduces sea level rise by -1.2 mm/yr.

So a warming Antarctica leads to ice mass gains and a reduction in sea level rise, and a melting ice sheet leads to widespread cooling and sea ice expansion. Either way, the alarmist narrative loses.

Image Source: IPCC AR4
Image Source: Krinner et al., 2007
Image Source: Palerme et al., 2017

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