Causality Analysis Finds Temperature Changes Have Determined CO2 Changes Since The Phanerozoic

Causality Analysis Finds Temperature Changes Have Determined CO2 Changes Since The Phanerozoic

Popular claims that CO2 changes drive temperature changes currently or throughout the distant past “are based on imagination and climate models full of assumptions.”

A comprehensive new study details a stochastic assessment determination of the sequencing of CO2 variations versus temperature variations since the 1950s, over the last 2,000 years (the Common Era), and throughout the last 541 million years.

The robust conclusion is that the causality direction – with the understanding that causes lead and effects lag – clearly shows the temperature changes lead and CO2 changes lag on yearly, decadal, and centennial/millennial scales. In other words, “the reverse causality direction [CO2]→T should be excluded.”

The claim that CO2 increases drive temperature changes is thus a “narrative” only, as the claim that “humans, through their emissions by fossil fuel burning, are responsible for the changes we see in climate” can be regarded as a “non-scientific issue.”

Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2024

The author has had a series of peer-reviewed scientific papers published supporting this same T→CO2 conclusion (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2022, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2020, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023, Koutsoyiannis, 2024, Koutsoyiannis, 2024) in just the last few years.

Since these papers challenge the prevailing anthropogenic global warming (AGW) narrative so acutely, Dr. Koutsoyiannis has understandably been the recipient of antagonism bordering on vitriol from AGW proponents. This includes comments from peer-reviewers. So, in an apparent effort to foster transparency, he has made the peer reviewers’ comments on this latest paper public. Here is the link to these commentaries:

Peer reviewers’ exchanges with Koutsoyiannis in “Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO2 causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times.”

Electricity Rationing At Charging Stations Due To Limited Charging Infrastructure in Europe

Charging station operator now levying extra fee if you take too long to charge your electric car. The aim: “fairer distribution”.

Germany’s online BlackoutNews.de here reports how Dutch charging station operator Allego is imposing a “blocking fee” at all its European fast chargers.

The fee went into effect on July 1st.

For example, in Germany, if drivers take more than 45 minutes to charge their electric cars at an Allegro fast-charger, then they will have to pay an extra 25 cents-euro for each additional minute of charging beyond 45 minutes.

“This measure is intended to ensure a fairer distribution of the charging infrastructure and prevent unnecessary over-parking, writes Blackout News. “So if you stand at the charging station for an hour longer, you pay almost 15 euros extra,” according to elektroauto-news:.Apparently, the fee is designed to reduce the long charging lines occurring at charging stations, especially as millions of Europeans head out on their summer holidays.

“According to Allego, the introduction of this fee is necessary to ensure fair and timely access to charging stations,” reports Blackout News. “Allego explains that the charge is intended to prevent e-car drivers from occupying the charging stations for longer than necessary.”

This just means more burden on e-car drivers. Either they leave the charging station not fully charge and look for another charging station, or they pay extra to charge fully.

Another reason: power grid limitations. Blackout News reports further: “Due to grid restrictions in many European countries, Allego cannot install as many charging points as desired everywhere. In Germany, grid capacity is considered a bottleneck in many places, which could cause electromobility projects to be severely delayed or even fail.”

Solution? Electricity rationing.





Electric Car Doldrums…VW Announces 1000 Layoffs At East German Plant

VW announces 1000 layoffs at large electric-vehicle plant in East Germany as demand slips and market turbulence persists

Blackout News here reports that Volkswagen is planning to cut another 1,000 jobs by the end of 2024 at its factory in Zwickau, Germany.  The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains weak and turbulent.

The news is another blow to a region already gripped by economic and political uncertainty, and underscores how Germany’s green master plan remains an illusion.

The Zwickau plant still employs about 9,400 workers and exclusively produces vehicles with electric drives.

“The move is a result of slow sales of EVs,” reports Blackout News. “The automotive industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase. Many companies are increasingly focusing on electro-mobility, but consumers remain hesitant. High purchase costs, limited range and an inadequate charging infrastructure are some of the reasons that are deterring potential buyers.”

Despite the bad news, Zwickau remains an important location for the production of electric vehicles at VW. How long this will continue as such remains to be seen.

“The cutbacks mainly affect fixed-term employment contracts, which increases uncertainty for many employees. Many employees in Zwickau fear for their future, as fixed-term contracts are expiring and there are no new jobs in sight,”  reports Blackout News.

The prospects for the future of electric cars in Germany remains highly uncertain, and will depend on very much on whether or not electric vehicles will ever gain acceptance from wary buyers. issues surrounding technical feasibility still remain unresolved. As much as governments would like to promote them, their technical realities are there and cannot be discussed away.

Blackout News summarizes with optimism: “It can be said that the automotive industry is undergoing a transformation process that harbors both opportunities and risks. VW in Zwickau is an example of the challenges and necessary adjustments in this transition phase.”

Assuming the “transition phase” ever gets completed.

Blackout News is operated by an independent and non-partisan small group of engineers with experience in energy management.





Seminal 1967 Paper Introducing CO2 ‘Radiative Forcing’ Is Based On Assumptive Imaginary-World Modeling

A new study comprehensively eviscerates a 57-year-old modeling paper upon which nearly the entirety of the IPCC’s CO2-drives-climate paradigm is based.

Dr. Roy Clark has published a new 73-page study that rips apart the Manabe and Wetherald (1967) paper (MW67) that effectively hatched the IPCC-popularized concepts of CO2 climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, and positive/negative feedbacks so as to portray humans as predominantly responsible for climate changes.

The invalid, error-ridden conceptualization of a Earth land and ocean surface warmed by CO2 radiative forcing is one-dimensional and Flat Earth and assumes constant equilibrium, or perpetually steady states (that do not exist in the real world).

Even the most basic of assumptions in MW67 – that CO2 warms the Earth and ocean as its concentration is increased – is “largely a mathematical artifact produced by using a highly simplified one-dimensional radiative convective computer model.” CO2 climate sensitivity is but a calculation built on simplification errors.

The MW67 model (and the Hansen et al., 1981 paper that expanded it to its present-day form) neglects a host of real-world phenomena.

For example, evaporation (for the ocean) is ignored. Wind (which modulates evaporation) and waves are ignored. The ocean is assumed to be a flat, one-dimensional object that is predominantly heated by downward infrared radiation.

The effects of molecular collisions and turbulence in the troposphere are ignored. Diurnal temperature is ignored. Humidity is assumed to be perpetually constant rather than varying with the solar heating of the surface.

“The effects of advection, evaporation, subsurface thermal storage and ocean transport were ignored” in MW67.

The steady state assumption (that was first featured in 1896 by Arrhenius) is not real, as there is “no steady state air column in the real atmosphere and both turbulent and moist convection and subsurface thermal storage have to be included in the time dependent surface energy transfer analysis.”

The radiative “perturbation” from a CO2 increase from 280 to 560 ppm could only produce a 0.08 K temperature change over the course of a day using the MW67 radiative transfer model calculations. This variation is too small to detect, and it cannot accumulate over days or seasons.

Simply put, MW67 effectively constructs a set of assumptions about what may only occur in an imaginary-world. And this is the Nobel Prize-winning paper that underpins the modern-day version of climate science.

Image Source: Clark, 2024

New Study: ‘Carbon Dioxide And A Warming Climate Are Not Problems’

Instead, warmth and elevated CO2 are a boon for humanity.

A new peer-reviewed paper published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology (May and Crok, 2024) counters the prevailing “wisdom” that says a warmer climate and greener vegetation are problematic.

The authors detail the horrors of the much colder Little Ice Age that destroyed civilizations (crop failures, summerless years). Half the population of Finland and 15% of Scotland’s citizens died off in the 1690s due primarily to the cold-induced famines and frozen-over water supplies.

Elevated CO2 and warmth are 70% and 8% responsible, respectively, for a much greener, more vegetated landscape across the world since the 1980s.

The incidence and severity of storms, hurricanes, floods, and extreme weather in general have undergone flat to declining trends over the last several decades. Thus, “it is hard to find any unusual weather or weather-related disaster that can be blamed on climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic.”

“52 of 53 studies of disaster losses due to extreme weather were unable to attribute the events to human causes…”

The US government estimates the warming since 1950 has reduced the country’s gross domestic product by less than 0.5%, and an estimated 3°C of warming by 2100 still only reduces the GDP by less than 1%. Considering the US economy grew by 800% from 1950 to present, this means any assumed “damage” from warmth and elevated CO2 would not be detectable.

The quest to “save” the world from warming and elevated CO2 is devoid of scientific and socio-economic merit.

Image Source: May and Crok, 2024

Image Source: May and Crok, 2024

Giant Oyster Shell Discovery Suggests Early Holocene Seas Were 4°C (Up To 8°C) Warmer Than Today

Scientists continue to uncover evidence of a much warmer Early Holocene, when CO2 hovered near 260 ppm.

According to a new study, an ancient 42-centimeter long oyster shell has been found ~20 km inland from today’s Taipei Basin (Taiwan) coast.

Extensive isotope analyses (69 of them) of a 5 cm section of the shell reveal that the last time this area was regularly under sea level was about 8000 years ago, or during the Early Holocene.

Given that oysters reside in water depths of about 2 meters, sea levels can be calculated to have been about 1-3 meters higher than present at that time.

Also, while modern winter temperatures range from 14-16°C at this location, the analyses further revealed that the Early Holocene winter sea surface temperatures likely ranged from 15 to 23°C, which is ~4°C warmer than today on average, and up to 8°C warmer if winter temperatures reached 23°C.

“winter temperature in Taipei Basin ~7660 cal BP was estimated as 15-23°C, warmer than today [14-16°C]”

Image Source: Li et al., 2024

Europe’s Green Energy Plans Stall As Leading Companies Reduce Expansion Plans

Green energies in turmoil…projects being postponed, scaled back…

Europe’s largest green energy producer drastically reduces expansion plans for wind and solar energy

Europe’s green energy projects are in the doldrums. Photo: P. Gosselin

Europe’s leading green energy producer, Statkraft, is drastically scaling back its plans for new wind and solar power plants – due to falling electricity prices and rising costs, so reports Germany’s online Blackout News, a leading site for independent German energy news.

According to company CEO, Birgitte Vartdal, market conditions have become more difficult as the company’s ambitious targets for wind energy and solar power are now being called into question.

The new Statkraft target is two to two and a half GW instead of an originally planned 4 gigawatts annually.

“In the offshore wind energy sector, the Group is now planning a total output of six to eight GW. The original target was ten GW,” Blackout News adds.

The scaleback follows other Europeans countries’ plans to reduce expansion, including Danish energy company Orsted, which “has lowered its targets by more than ten GW” and has also “canceled two offshore wind projects in the USA and reported impairments amounting to 28.4 billion Danish kroner (approx. 3.8 billion euros).”

Portugal’s largest energy supplier, Energias de Portugal (EDP), has also reduced its investment plans – due to the “deterioration in market conditions.” Moreover, French energy supplier Engie earlier had postponed developing hydrogen projects.

Leading officials blame projects having become “much more challenging” and offering “no relative returns.”

As a result, solar and wind equipment manufacturers have seen their values plummeting and ESG equity funds have “recently suffered outflows of 38 billion dollars,” reports Blackout News.

Blackout News is operated by an independent and non-partisan small group of engineers with experience in energy management.





New Study: 1979-2013 Southern Ocean And Southeast Pacific Cooling Driven By…Warming?

Scientists attempt to explain why approximately one-third of the global ocean’s sea surface temperatures cooled since the late 1970s.

The 50-70°S Southern Ocean and 160°W to 80°W southeastern Pacific cooled by about -0.35°C (-0.117°C per decade) from 1979-2013 (Yao et al., 2024). (The cooling also continued to 2019, but the authors chose to use 2013 as their end point.)

In the paper the scientists expend a great deal of effort to “argue” that warming in the North Atlantic forced 35+ years of cooling from 50 to 70°S and 160°W to 80°W.

“We argue that North Atlantic warming is decisive for driving the observed multidecadal SST cooling of the southeastern Pacific sector.”

However, they simultaneously acknowledge both (a) internal variability and (b) increases in cloud cover leading to reductions in downwelling shortwave radiation can explain the cooling in this region. These would appear to be much more plausible explanations for multi-decadal cooling than the warming-forces-cooling mechanism they propose.

Image Source: Yao et al., 2024

DWD Data Show June 2024 German Weather Was Close To Normal

No (predicted) “hellish summer” in sight. June saw near normal temperature, a bit wetter

Germany’s DWD national weather service just issued the preliminary weather results for the month of June (2024).

June in the Central European region was highly variable with periods of both cool and summery weather. The final phase of June saw the sunniest and warmest days of the year so far.

0.4°C Warmer than the mean

The preliminary results of the country’s approximately 2,000 measuring stations, the June mean temperature was 16.8°C, making the month 0.4°C warmer than the reference period 1991 to 2020. The beginning of the month saw cold, single-digit lows. On June 12th, a minimum of 1.4 °C was recorded in Meßstetten. However, late in the month temüperatures rose to summerlike levels for several days.

20% Wetter

In terms of precipitation, June was wetter than normal. a mean of around 91 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell, making the month 20% wetter than normal compared to 1991 to 2020 reference period (76 l/m²). The month began with heavy rainfall and severe flooding in parts of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria.

June precipitation, 2023. Source: DWD.

On June 3rd alone, 137 l/m² fell in Raubling-Pfraundorf, Upper Bavaria.

The highest monthly amounts of over 250 l/m² were recorded along the Alps. Heavy rainstorms and, in some areas, supercells with large hailstorms raged across the country. June remained drier in some Eastern regions, especially in northern Brandenburg which saw less than 20 l/m².

Normal Sunshine Hours

Germany also so saw a mean of 210 hours of sunshine in June, thus slightly less than the 1991-2020 mean of 216 hours. The northeast and east saw over 250 hours while the Black Forest and the Alps reported the lowest values, with around 150 hours.





German Professor Shows That The Road To Green Hydrogen Is Long, Expensive

The long road to green hydrogen

An article on NDR German public broadcasting clearly conveys the dimensions of hydrogen. It reports on a planned factory for green hydrogen in Neumünster.

A hydrogen factory with an output of 50 megawatts corresponds to the output of ten wind turbines, which means that the output of ten wind turbines can be stored. A hydrogen factory of this size could produce 3,000 tons of green hydrogen with an energy content of 100 gigawatt hours, says Prof. Oliver Opel from the West Coast University of Applied Sciences (FHW) in Heide. If the green hydrogen were burned, it could be used to heat 5,000 single-family homes per year. And the waste heat could be used to heat a further 2,500 houses, according to Opel. If electricity is made from the green hydrogen again and heat pumps are used, 7,500 single-family homes could be heated, as well as another 7,500 homes with the waste heat.”

To put this into perspective: Schleswig-Holstein has around 650,000 single-family homes, 80,000 two-family homes and 95,000 multi-family homes.  It is in any case no surprise that high German electricity prices are an obstacle.

Prof. Oliver Opel heads the Institute for the Transformation of the Energy System, ITE, at the West Coast University of Applied Sciences in Heide. He says that the construction and operation of electrolysis plants are still too expensive. One crucial aspect is the high price of electricity. Opel explains: ‘In other European countries, the electricity price is much better. One option could be a division according to geographically different electricity price zones, as already exists in other countries.’

Opel also points to another problem: ‘The purchase prices for electrolysis systems have continued to rise, as they are nowhere near mass production.'”

The question of what the hydrogen and the electricity generated in this way will ultimately cost remains unanswered in the article. In any case, the country’s plans are ambitious. It would be a factor of 30 of the first project.

Schleswig-Holstein wants to achieve an electrolysis capacity of 1.5 gigawatts (1,500 megawatts) by 2030, according to the state government’s updated hydrogen strategy. The federal government has also set itself a target. By 2030, the government wants to achieve an electrolysis capacity of 10 gigawatts (10,000 megawatts) to cover the demand of 95 to 130 terawatt hours of electricity per year.

And according to the energy expert at the West Coast University of Applied Sciences, Oliver Opel, this is a real challenge, precisely because of the current poor framework conditions.”

So the road is not only long, but also expensive.





People Living Near Wind Turbines Vacate Their Homes Due To Harm To Pets, Livestock, Water Supply

A new study documents the detrimental effects linked to living in close proximity to wind turbines.

Living within 10 km of a wind turbine may be associated with serious consequences to the health and safety of people and animals.

Examples include:

limb deformities in horses

• birth defects (born with missing eyes and tails) in cattle, chickens born with crossed beaks

• 264% higher cortisol (stress) levels in forest animals

• enhanced aggression and erratic behavior in pets and livestock (such as kicking newborn calves)

• higher rates of cancer

• stillbirths and miscarriages, fertility declines, prolapsed birthing

• contaminated, gray water wells with 14,000 times higher levels of black shale

Image Source: Krogh et al., 2024

Expert’s Prediction Of “Summer of Hell” For Central Europe Hasn’t Materialized Yet

Summer-of-Hell Check

By

We are almost 1/3 of the way through the meteorological summer. Time to remember the prediction made by suspect biologist Marc Benecke in spring 2024. He had predicted “a summer of hell with almost complete certainty”. We reported. As early as March 2024, some meteorologists raised concerns about this forecast.

Shortly after Benecke gave his lecture, Kachelmannwetter created a video explaining the weather conditions needed for a warm or even hot summer. This is done very calmly and the video is correspondingly cautious with forecasts. However, it is well explained that summers in our latitudes have been getting warmer for years. Germany is indeed in for a warm week, but this could end at the weekend if a cold front pushes through from the north-west.

It is not possible to reliably predict how July and August will turn out. According to Wetterkontor, June 2024 has so far been slightly too cold in Germany compared to the statistical average.

(Image: Screenshot Wetterkonto.de)





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