In a new climate reconstruction for the Tibetan Plateau (Liang et al., 2020), scientists report a) the highest Holocene temperatures occurred about 8,500 to 6,000 years ago; b) “century-scale climate fluctuations” correlate “statistically and visually” with solar forcing estimates; and c) “we are in the middle of the 500-yr-long relatively warm period” and “this natural climate will persist for about some more decades”.
Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) climatologists remain involuntarily stuck in thick pack ice while two sister ships remain waiting in a fjord at Spitsbergen. Let’s see how long this is going to take.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
Inconvenient sea ice. German Polarstern research vessel stuck in “two-year” ice, 500 km from Spitsbergen. Image: MOSAIC.
German icebreaker and research vessel “Polarstern” has been drifting through the central Arctic on a 140 million euro MOSAIC research expedition since the beginning of October 2019. But the Arctic – they have inconveniently discovered – is strongly frozen at its highest level in the last five years.
Stopped by two-year, thick ice
The climatologists had prematurely abandoned their floe on Saturday, May 16, 2020, to make their way to Spitsbergen by Monday, May 25, but had to stop their engines already on Monday, May 18, because the two-year drift ice was too thick, they reported.
On May 20th, the researchers on board the Polarstern vessel wrote “two-year ice” is making travel “very difficult to impossible”. Image: MOSAIC.
They wish to reach Spitsbergen by Sunday, May 24, 2020 in order to meet up with two sister ships to take on supplies and a new crew. This is to avoid further evacuations like the one on April 22, when seven participants of expedition leg 3 were flown out by a Twin Otter. They should have been replaced in early April.
Shortly after Easter the vessel had left the drift corridor and drifted southwards in 2 to 3-meter thick pack ice towards Spitsbergen. There ice masses of 4-meter thickness awaited them and thus the biggest and thickest ice surfaces for many years.
The expedition and crew now aim to meet the German research vessels “FS Sonne” and “FS Maria S. Merian” (ice class E3 up to 0.8 meters of ice thickness) in “calm waters” off Spitsbergen and exchange the entire personnel and to resupply.
However, the current drift calculator shows the Polarstern will unlikely reach Spitsbergen on schedule.
The Polarstern had been planned to reach the North Pole, but never reached it.
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) president Craig Rucker tweeted the results of the most recent Gallup Poll, which found Americans have little concern about climate change.
Positive news to kick off Memorial Day weekend: Gallup Poll finds only measly 2% of Americans believe ‘Climate Change’ is the most important problem facing our nation. pic.twitter.com/nyN4aZlZVy
— Craig Rucker (@CJRucker) May 22, 2020
“Only measly 2% of Americans believe ‘Climate Change’ is the most important problem facing our nation,” commented Rucker on the poll results.
The low results show that climate change is an issue that people worry about only when there’s nothing else to worry about. Climate change is more just an irrational obsession by neurotic socialites and elitists.
Despite the decades long media barrage of doomsday climate scenarios, Americans just aren’t buying it.
Moreover the survey results expose the strong satisfaction that Americans had for the US economy and jobs outlook before Corona made the headlines. Only 4% and 1% were concerned about the economy in general and jobs respectively.
What’s surprising is that figure barely increased 2 months later, indicating strong confidence that President Trump’s capability to will the country back to economic prosperity and jobs creation. Also confidence in the health care system increased, likely to the effective response to the Corona crisis.
Today Americans view climate change as being as big a problem as other traditionally low tier issues, such as morals, courtesy, class and the media.
Though the heavy lifting involved in getting the economy back on track remains ahead, Americans have confidence the country will rebound briskly.
German public broadcasting Deutsche Welle (DW) here reports how Mexico has decided to end its transition the renewable energies, angering activists and investors.
The move, DW reports, “is scaring off environmentalists and investors” and could be the “death knell for renewable energies.”
Apparently President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had traveled to Oaxaca and saw how the local hills were blighted by wind turbines, commenting: “These windmills are spoiling the landscape” and “produce very little energy.”
Wind energy is notorious for its inefficiency, unreliable supply, high costs, blight to the environment and health hazards. Moreover, the business has been taken over by crony capitalists out to make a killing on the massively subsidized projects. In fact, as Michael Moore’s latest film shows, green energies aren’t really green at all.
The move by the Mexican government has angered green energy activists and investors. Another reason cited by the Mexican government is “grid instability”.
The reform will have some impact on German investors, DW reports. For example: the Potsdam-based company Notus, who since 2014 has been planning five solar and wind power plants. Now their future remains uncertain.
“The new directive could be the death knell for renewable energies,” DW reports. “Protest letters from the Canadian and European Union embassies refer to 44 ongoing projects worth USD 6.8 billion.” Another problem is Mexico’s power grid is not designed to handle the massively fluctuating power fed in by wind and sun.
Though DW suggests that the return to fossil fuels is going to mean higher costs for Mexican consumers, most results from around the world suggest the opposite is the case. Germany, for example has committed a whopping 1 trillion dollars to green energies since 2000, yet today the country has among the world’s most expensive electricity prices for consumers. Annually tens of thousands of households see their power cut off because they can no longer afford to pay the power bills.
Mexico is wise to move to a source of energy that is plentiful, affordable, stable and one that doesn’t destroy the environment on a massive scale.
Iceland’s extensive lakes and glaciers topography provides a verifiable history of the region’s paleoclimates.
For example, scientists can infer summer temperatures 3°C warmer than today in Iceland to account for the millennia when glaciers had “disappeared” from the landscape (Geirsdóttir et al., 2019).
Further, sea ice extent around Iceland was nearly non-existent throughout the Early Holocene. The highest sea ice cover values are recorded after the Medieval Warm Period and during the Little Ice Age. Today’s (2000 C.E.) sea ice extent is only slightly lower than the highest values of the last 8000 years (Geirsdóttir et al., 2019).
A new study (Harning et al., 2020) using the history of the Drangajökull glacier also affirms the surface temperatures during the Early Holocene – when CO2 levels were about 150 ppm lower than they are today – were about 3°C warmer than the late 20th century. This would not appear to be consistent with claims that CO2 variations are a driver of temperatures or glacier melt.
Emerging dissidence: 22-year-old student Clemens Traub used to be a regular Fridays For Future demonstrator, until he woke up and realized the whole thing was run by what he now calls “big-city arrogance” and “socially privileged eco-hipsters”.
The political science student, member of the German SPD socialist party, in fact says the movement is so radical and divisive that it even risks a “civil war”.
Image: cropped from SPD site.
Traub has just written a book bearing the title in English: “Future for Fridays?: an essay by a young ‘Fridays for Future’ critic“.
New book by German student, former demonstrator, accuses the Fridays for Future movement of being too radical, apocalyptic and divisive. Image: Amazon.
Deviating from the sheer alarmism that is typical of his fellow socialist and green comrades, in his book Traub writes he has become worried that the movement will “divide society” instead of rescuing the climate. He went from being a regular FFF activist to an open critic of the movement.
Though Traub believes the climate is a serious problem that demands immediate attention, he feels that the radical FFF movement will make matters far worse instead of better. He accuses the movement of ignoring the concerns of the larger German working class.
“Career springboard” for “elitist eco-hipsters”
Traub starts by accusing the Fridays for Future movement of being elitist, one marked by “big-city arrogance” and exploited by narcissistic individuals – such as “Longhaul” Luisa Neubauer – as “career springboard”.
Fridays for Future, Traub writes, does not represent the average worker: “Instead of listening to the concerns of hard-working people, they are reproached for their anti-environmental diesel car, which they need for their daily commute to work.”
FFF is “no place for humanity”
Not only is the movement elitist and out-of-touch, Traub also claims that the FFF movement is “too radical”, writing: “In view of their fanatical climatic zeal, it is clear that there is no place for humanity and compassion in their thinking.”
Such “climate fanaticism” is met with rejection by the majority of the population, says Traub. The movement, he claims, rejects the very system that made the “privileged eco-hipsters”: capitalism.
Traub also accuses the Fridays for Future of misusing “hysterical images of the end of the world” instead of engaging in an “innovative discussion of the future”.
Extreme, apocalyptic movement
“We need a down-to-earth and lifelike climate movement,” Traub told Business Insider. “The movement thinks far too apocalyptically for me. I miss the innovative and future-oriented discussion on the topic.”
What the movement needs, he writes, are more middle-class activists “who see a car not just as a climate monster, but as an important part of life for many people.”
Possible revolt
Unless the movement tones the radicalism and hysteria down, Traub thinks the movement in Germany could unleash a “revolt by the unheard and low-income earners”, similar to the yellow vests in France.
In this regard, the COVID-19 protests against government social and economic restrictions seen across Germany can be considered a preview.
Traub may be among the first of a new generation who are beginning to realize that “going green” is the saw that is cutting the lofty branch on which they are sitting.
Global warming should mean that the period of May 11-15 – known as the Ice Saints in Europe – when late spring frosts often occur, would become less frosty over the years. But the opposite has been the case since 1995.
===============================================
By Die kalte Sonne
Authored by Josef Kowatsch
(Translated and edited by P. Gosselin)
In Germany the five days from the 11th to 15th May are the so-called Eisheilige (Ice Saints). Farmers used to understand “ice” simply as late spring frost, so these are days with frost.
Our question is how have the Ice Saints behaved at various locations across Germany the last 25 years?
POTSDAM
Let’s start with Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg. We take the last 25 years as the period under consideration:
Figure 1: The five Ice Saints days in the state capital Potsdam. They are getting much colder. 2020 was the low point of the last 25 May months. On three days there were night frosts.
BAD KREUZNACH
At Bad Kreuznach in the Upper Rhine Valley we show a southern Germany station from from Palatinate, a warm sunny region. The DWD Germany National Weather Service weather station is located north, outside the town.
Figure 2: Bad Kreuznach in the Upper Rhine, the trend line of the present day is even slightly lower for the Ice Saints than in Potsdam.
DRESDEN
The DWD weather station is located in the Klotzsche suburb, at the airport north of the Saxon state capital.
Figure 3: DWD station Dresden Klotzsche. Ice Saints in the present. The trendline is a little bit lower than Potsdam and the Ice Saints 2020 were among the coldest since 1997.
GOLDBACH
Goldbach near Bischofswerda in eastern Saxony, a small suburb with about 500 inhabitants.
Figure 4: The Ice Saints 2019 were clearly the coldest, source of data: Station manager Dietmar Pscheidt.
SCHNEIFELFORSTHAUS
This DWD weather station is located in the Eifel region, near the Belgian border.
Figure 5: Even in the far west of Germany, the Ice Saints outside the cities have become significantly colder. The average of the five calendar Ice Saints days in 2020 was 4.77°C – the second lowest.
NUREMBERG
The DWD Station Netzstall is located near Nuremberg, well outside the city. The missing value of the year 2000 was interpolated using the neighboring stations at Nuremberg and Nuremberg-Roth.
Figure 6: The village near Nuremberg shows a falling trend line of the five Ice Saints days. 2020 was slightly colder than 2019 and this year was clearly the coldest in the last 25 years.
After retreating into the sea until about 1960, for the last five decades the Atlantic coast of North America has, on net, reversed course, expanding at a rate of about 5 centimeters per year (Armstrong and Lazarus, 2019).
This is likely the exact opposite of what would be expected given the reports of accelerated sea level rise for this region in recent decades.
The lead author of a new study, Professor Roland Gehrels, has previously found much more rapid rates of sea level rise prior to 1950 than in recent decades in Southern Hemisphere locations, such as along the coasts of Tasmania and New Zealand (Gehrels et al., 2012).
In a new study, Gehrels et al. (2020) also found rapid rates of sea level rise reaching up to 3 millimeters per year during the 1700s along the Atlantic coast of North America. He suggests “those rapid episodes of sea level rise on the north east coast of North America in the 18th Century have a natural cause”.
Interestingly, of the 6 locations chosen for the study, only 1 (Connecticut) indicates sea level rise rates have been steadily accelerating throughout the second half of the 20th century and in recent decades. The 5 others (Nova Scotia, Maine, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Viðarhólmi) all show the millimeters-per-year rates of sea level change have either not been rising or even rapidly falling.
This would not appear to be consistent with a driving anthropogenic influence in sea level rise trends since the 1950s, or since CO2 emissions have risen dramatically.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed how scientific dissent is not only being suppressed and marginalized in Germany when it comes to climate science, but with virology and public health.
The online German national daily Die Welt here writes, “Virologists and physicians fear for their freedom of expression in the Corona crisis.” Climate scientists are getting some company!
Scientific freedom “under threat”
Citing the results of a recent survey, to Die Welt reports “many experts believe that freedom of expression in science is under threat” and “virologists have begun to change their attitude towards the measures taken by the German government.”
As the economy reels from the stringent restrictions enacted by authorities across Europe, the discussion about how to respond to the spread of the virus has become bitter. Public health experts opposing the restrictions and lock downs have found themselves marginalized and attacked by the media, other virologists and most politicians.
Shift: COVID-19 alarmism waning, frustration growing
Using a survey, “Researchers at the University Hospital Eppendorf in Hamburg (UKE), the Society for Virology (GfV) and the University of Tübingen have tried to determine the mood among experts,” Die Welt reports. “178 experts from the fields of virology, immunology, hygiene, internal medicine and intensive care medicine” were surveyed anonymously. The results show that “more than more than 70 percent of the participants support the distance rule of two metres and the prohibition of major events” but that the other restrictions were “far more controversial”.
One third feel freedom in science is “being threatened”
What’s surprising: “One third even see freedom of expression in science as being threatened” and today 63 percent think “it would be sensible to restore public and economic life”. Also: “social distancing” is apparently losing support, according to the survey.
Overall, the findings show that the pandemic skeptics are finally beginning to assert their views to the public.
Unfortunately this is not even close to happening in climate science, where in Germany the ultra-alarmists continue to control the message. That freedom to express science is under threat, “is probably what many climate scientists secretly think,” Die kalte Sonne site here commented.
Perhaps COVID-19 tells us how moods can change quickly once restrictions start eroding freedom and prosperity.
War on windpark-blocking red kites?
Authorities are offering a €1000 reward for information leading to solving 11 cases of dead red kite protected birds. Nine of the deaths were due to a long-banned poison.
Protected red kites being poisoned in north Germany. Image:
The German Presseportal.de here writes that a total of eleven dead red kites have been reported to the LLUR (State Office for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas) since 2017 from the area south of Neumünster in northern Germany.
“Nine of these rare birds of prey died of a banned insect venom,” the Presseportal.de reported. Now the Hunting Association of Schleswig-Holstein e.V. (LJV) is offering a reward of 1,000 euros (1,100 US dollars) for information leading to solving the cases.
“Banned poison”
Authorities say “the 9 red kites died from an insect poison which had been banned for many years” and that four dead red kites with suspected poisoning have been reported since March alone.
“Three birds were found close together by a local hunter in the community of Rendswühren in the Plön district. The police departments Segeberg and Kiel have taken over the investigation,” according to the Presseportal.de.
More than half of the worldwide population lives on the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany, where wind energy proponents have been actively lobbying to build wind parks. Red kites and other protected species have ling been obstacles against the construction of wind parks.
A few days ago we reported here how one red kite had been found shot dead in an area where a wind park could be built under the condition that “no protected species be proven to exist there”.
1000-euro reward
In 2008, authorities and wildlife clubs jointly signed the Kiel Declaration on the Protection of Birds of Prey, under which the costs of examining dead birds of prey can be borne by the state,” the Presseportal reports. “Anyone who finds a dead bird of prey where the circumstances of discovery indicate an illegal act is requested to contact the LLUR (+49) 4347-704-0 or the Lower Nature Conservation Authority of the respective district.”
The Presseportal.de also informs that persons may also contact the Landesjagdverband Schleswig-Holstein e.V., which is offering a reward of 1000 euros for information that would lead to solving the cases. Evidence from citizens are accepted under (+49) 4551/884-0 (Police Bad Segeberg UVS) or (+49) 431/160-1503 (Police Kiel UVS).
Your contact at the Landesjagdverband Schleswig-Holstein e.V (State hunting association of Schleswig-Holstein e.V.) is
located at Böhnhusener Weg 6, 24220 Flintbek. Telephone: (+49) 4347-9087-0.
Stefan Rahmstorf on the IPCC modelling breakdown: Reason to breathe a sigh of relief, new climate models are far too sensitive.
By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated by P. Gosselin)
DER SPIEGEL provides a regular platform for the controversial climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf. On 12 May 2020 he was allowed to:
Stronger temperature rise: Why the climate models are running hot
A guest article by Stefan Rahmstorf
New calculations have alarmed the scientific community – they suggest the earth could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases. Will global warming be stronger than previously thought?
Here the quick reader will suspect one of the usual Rahmstorf climate alarm pieces. And this is exactly how the beginning of the article reads. However, it deals with a tricky topic that will certainly hit the Potsdam scientists quite hard to the stomach.
Huge mishap
In the course of the preparation of the 6th Climate Status Report, the IPCC has again run a large number of climate models. This time, however, a huge mishap has occurred. Several of the models have delivered far too much warming, which is not compatible with the measured data of the last decades. This fundamentally casts the models into question. They suggest that the warming effect of CO2 is far too high. A scandal that should actually cast everything into question.
Rahmstorf plays it dumb at the beginning of the article, luring his readers into the alarm trap. Will everything get much worse than expected? This is the typical Rahmstorf narrative.
“Models are crap”
But if you can make it to the end of the article, you will be surprised. Rahmstorf actually admits quietly that the models are crap, running way too hot.
In reality it’s all not so bad. Rahmstorf writes literally in his article:
The comparative study by researchers from the University of Exeter now shows that in particular the warming since 1975 – i.e. most of the modern global warming – is clearly too strong in the sensitive models. More recent analyses by ETH Zurich, for which more models have already been evaluated, confirm this conclusion. This is a reason to breathe a sigh of relief: there is currently some evidence that these models are not better than the old ones, but are simply too sensitive.“
Did SPIEGEL force its guest author to write this article? Was this a prerequisite for him to continue writing there? A balanced presentation with a fair evaluation of all opinions represented in science has never really been Rahmstorf’s strength.
Obvious failure
Or was it a flight to the front because the modelling failure was all too obvious and Rahmstorf feared complete professional isolation? It’s hard to say.
Stefan Rahmstorf must have struggled for several months before deigning to admit this mishap. This certainly could not have been easy for him.
By the way, here in the blog we have already reported on the topic several times: “The sun in February 2020, science against doom and gloom” and “The sun in November 2019 , when models exaggerate” and “The sun in December 2019, advances in climate science“.
The Mid-Holocene, 2000-7000 years ago
Lopez-Belzunce et al., 2020 (Mediterranean)
Burley et al., 2020 (Polynesia)
Lopes et al., 2020 (Brazil)
Brocx and Semeniuk, 2020 (Western Australia)
Helfensdorfer, 2020 (Australia)
Martin et al., 2020 (Western Australia)
The Last Interglacial (LIG), ~120,000 years ago
Muh et al., 2020 (Bahamas, Bermuda)
Helm et al., 2020 (South Africa)
By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information
The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. More information at our Data Privacy Policy
Recent Comments