Dumb As It Gets: Germany Heads Into Winter Refusing To Let Badly Needed Power Plants Operate

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Germany’s intensifying gas and energy crisis…

Into winter chaos without extending power plant operation

By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated by P. Gosselin, one hyperlink added)

There is another taboo law that the German federal government does not want to touch: the nuclear phase-out law. Most people in Germany have seen through the inane statements of the Green president of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, according to whom nuclear power plants do not generate heat and therefore do not help with the gas shortage.

But 14% of electricity comes from gas-fired power plants. We will only be able to replace two-thirds of the gas-fired power plants by ramping up reserve coal-fired power plants. In the end, eliminating three nuclear power plants means giving up a large part of this saving, because the electricity that is eliminated cannot be replaced in any other way than by gas-fired power plants.

Even the accelerated expansion of wind power and solar energy (which, by the way, only produces electricity) will not help. In order to replace the amount of electricity of the three running nuclear power plants arithmetically, one needs two thirds of the 2.2 million existing solar plants. In other words : to replace this amount of electricity, we need five to ten years to replace the resulting gap of about 35 TWh with new PV plants. And then we would still have no electricity at night.

Power company Evonik CEO Christian Kullmann vividly described the extent of the gas crisis: Imagine a train transporting gas that starts in Seville and ends in Frankfurt [1860 km], one wagon at a time the whole way. And he poses the question of how long the German chemical industry would be able to get by on this gas quantity. Mind you, only the chemical industry. Answer: 6 hours. It’s about 5.6 million jobs affected by the lack of natural gas. It is not about taking shorter showers.




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New Study: Greenland ‘Must Have Been At Least 3°C Warmer’ Than Today During The Early Holocene

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These much warmer Greenland temperatures imply that the elevation of the ice sheet was 400 meters lower than it is today from about 6,000 to 10,000 years ago.

Scientists (Westhoff et al., 2022) report that the two largest Greenland melt events in the last few hundred years occurred in 2012 and in 1889 CE – when atmospheric CO2 levels were still under 300 ppm.

The “melt events around the Holocene Climate Optimum were more intense and more frequent” than has been observed during the modern period. And the most prominent melt events of the last 10,000 years centered around the Medieval Warm Period, 986 CE.

Overall, the elevation of the Greenland ice sheet has grown by 0.4 km since the Early Holocene, as “summer temperatures must have been at least 3 ± 0.6°C warmer during the Early Holocene compared to today.”

Image Source: Westhoff et al., 2022
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June In Tokyo, Hachijojima Island Hasn’t Warmed In Decades

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Charts by Kirye

The mean temperature data for June are available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and today we plot the June mean temperature data for Tokyo and its Hachijojima island, located in the middle of the ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo.

June in urban Tokyo hasn’t warmed since 1996:

Data source: JMA

For rural Hachijojima Island, June hasn’t warmed there since 1936:

Data source: JMA

Next we compare the mean daily maximum temperatures of urban Tokyo and rural Hachijojima and see strong evidence of the urban heat island effect:

Data source: JMA here and here

While the mean daily maximum temperature for Hachijojima has risen modestly over the past 115 years, Tokyo has seen an almost 2°C linear trend increase.




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Former Pfizer Executive Warns: Spike Protein Shot A “Diabolical Mistake”, “Toxic” And “Mutates Rapidly”

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A new paper appearing in the prestigious New England Journal of medicine titles: “Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections” by Altarawneh et al find that vaccines are worse than what they are claimed to be and that natural immunity is better.

The study, investigated  vaccination rates and immunity among more than 100,000 Omicron infected and non-infected individuals.

“The authors found that those who had a prior infection but no vaccination had a 46.1 and 50 percent immunity against the two subvariants of the Omicron variant, even at an interval of more than 300 days since the previous infection,” reports the Epoch Times here. “However, individuals who received two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine but had no previous infection, were found with negative immunity against both BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants, indicating an increased risk of contracting COVID-19 than an average person without prior infection and vaccination.”

The Epoch Times continues:

Six months after getting two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, immunity against any Omicron infection gradually dropped to -3.4 percent, below an average person without infection and vaccination (control) which would be set at 0.

For two doses of the Moderna vaccine, immunity against any Omicron infection dropped to -10.3 percent after more than six months since the last injection.

The authors reported that three doses of the Pfizer vaccine increased immunity to over 50 percent. However, considering that immunity was measured at only 42 days after the third vaccination, this is a very rapid immune decline over a short time period.

In comparison, previous infection gave 50 percent immunity, even over 300 days after the infection, which is a far longer period of protection.”

Toxic diabolical mistake

Meanwhile, Michael Yeadon, Ph.D., a former vice-president and chief scientific adviser for the drug company Pfizer, warns that the use of the spike protein in the shot is “a diabolical mistake” and that the spike protein is also “toxic and mutates rapidly”. Read more here.




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Late Spring In Finland, Sweden Has Not Been Warming, JMA Data Show

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Charts by Kirye 

The May mean temperatures for Finland and Sweden are now available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Today we plot the stations for which the JMA has adequate data.

First we look at Finland. Contrary to belief, late spring hasn’t warmed in at these stations over the past two decades:

Data source: JMA.

Not a single of the six stations has seen warming in May since 2002. The alarmists scream one horror story, but the data tell us another. Wo should we listen to? Emotionally hysterical hotheads, or untampered measurements?

The same is true in Sweden, where we also look at the stations for which the JMA has enough data. Although the data for 2014 are missing for the 6 stations, we still can get a very good overall idea as to what’s going on:

May mean temperatures for Sweden. Source: JMA

Only 2 Swedish stations have seen warming, and that only modest.

Nothing significant has been happening. This is not what a crisis looks like. The same is true globally. The planet has cooled since the 2015/16 El Nino. It’s time for policymakers to ignore the climate hysteria and to focus on and undo the real energy problems they’ve created themselves.




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New Study Affirms Temperatures Determine Greenhouse Gas Forcing Trends, Not The Other Way Around

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CO2 and water vapor greenhouse effect impacts are not independent climate forcings . A new study affirms the “variance in the radiance in these channels is primarily controlled by…temperature” and “atmospheric absorption is strongly saturated in these [CO2, water vapor] channels”.

It has previously been established that greenhouse gas (water vapor, CO2) forcing “cannot be considered an independent component of the surface energy budget” because “anomalies in the downward longwave flux at the surface primarily arise as a consequence of surface temperature anomalies, rather than being the cause of those anomalies” (Singh and Polvani, 2020, Zeppetello et al., 2019).

Image Source: Singh and Polvani, 2020, Zeppetello et al., 2019

Feldman et al. (2015) admit they had to “construct” model-based spectra to simulate a CO2 signal in their seminal paper purporting to show CO2 changes cause temperature changes. This is because the temperature and water vapor levels primarily determine the overall longwave forcing (clear-sky) trends.

Image Source: Feldman et al., 2015

Now, a new study (Liu et al., 2022) affirms the overall trends in downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) from CO2 and water vapor are determined by temperature.

“In the opaque portions of the CO2 absorption band (centered at 667 cm−1) and H2O absorption band (1300 – 1800 cm−1), the overall radiance trends are caused by radiance change which is due almost entirely to the increases in the near-surface temperature because the atmosphere is already too opaque to reflect any gas concentration changes.”

This effectively means that greenhouse gases cannot be assumed to be the cause of temperature, but the consequence.

Image Source: Liu et al., 2022
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German Energy Crisis: Economics Minister Tells Citizens To Shower Less, Colder…”Gas Bills To Triple”!

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Germany’s Energiewende is unraveling faster than anyone could have expected 

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) says he is now taking less showers and advises citizens to do the same – in order to fight Putin (and of course because there’s an extreme shortage of gas and no one knows how the country will be kept warm this coming winter)!

Energy is running out in Germany

With the current energy price explosion and acute supply shortages, German politicians are not lacking when it comes to silly ideas. In an interview with Spiegel, German economics minister urged citizens to save energy, and gave unusual tips from his own everyday life. “I take a quick shower,” the Green politician told Spiegel. He said he had never been under the shower for long. “But I have shortened my shower time once again.”

The real reason: Germany’s energy policy debacle

As Germany’s “Energiewende” falters, and energy shortages loom, in part because the country has failed to fill its natural storage facilities and is decommissioning all its coal and nuclear power plants, Minister Habeck had to activate the alert level 2 from the emergency plan gas. “Gas is a scarce commodity,” he told Spiegel.

“Gas bills to triple”

Gas prices, already painfully high, will certainly rise further. “There will be further increases,” Habeck said.

“According to the Federal Network Agency, consumers can expect their gas bills to triple. The Ministry of Economics already issued tips for saving gas in the summer,” reports the German Kreiszeitung.de.

“Reluctant to be in air-conditioned rooms”

Not only is Habeck reducing his shower time, “he also avoids air conditioning and excessive heating,” the Kreiszeitung adds. “In summer, I am very reluctant to be in air-conditioned rooms, and in winter I heat sparingly,” Habeck explained.

But Habeck forgets tomention: “He is on the road from morning to night in his top job, which is why the low heating of the apartment is not difficult. And even if it did, rising costs would not weigh heavily on him,” writes the Kreiszeitung.  “As a minister, I have a salary that others can only dream of,” he admitted.

The Minister position also comes with unlimited air travel, chauffeured government car and lots of other amenities that isolate top officials from the hassles everyone else needs to contend with.

The German government is now advising citizens to install  “energy-saving shower heads”, which could save a household 446 euros a year, cut shower time by two minutes and the temperature to 36 degrees to save another 250 euros annually.




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‘A Significant And Robust Cooling Trend’ In The Southern Ocean From 1982–2020 Defies Climate Models

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A new study reports there has been a -0.3°C cooling in the Southern Ocean since 1982 per multiple observational data sets. The authors detail the “failure of CMIP5 models in simulating the observed SST cooling in the Southern Ocean.”

The Southern Ocean is today about 1-2°C colder than it has been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years (Shuttleworth et al., 2021, Civel-Mazens et al., 2021, Ghadi et al., 2020).

Image Source: Shuttleworth et al., 2021

Image Source: Civel-Mazens et al., 2021

Image Source: Ghadi et al., 2020

A new study (Xu et al., 2022) suggests the Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) has continued to cool for the last 40 years, with amplitudes ranging from -0.1°C to -0.3°C per decade in some regions.

Climate models are unable to simulate this cooling, as they are famously incapable of accurately depicting the role of cloud forcing in modulating sea surface temperature trends.

“SST in the Southern Ocean is considered as an important indicator of climate change. This study shows that the Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature has a significant and robust cooling trend during 1982–2020”

Image Source: Xu et al., 2022
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Extreme Weather In The Past: Germany’s Great Drought Of 1947 And Its “Catastrophic” Consequences

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Some regions in Central Europe have been suffering from a shortage of rain this spring and summer, so not surprisingly the media are blaming manmade climate change, often implying that droughts in Germany never happened before.

But of course they have, as this old news clip from Bavaria, Germany rolled in September, 1947 documents:

The film, rolled 75 years ago, reports on “The Great Drought” and its “catastrophic” consequences: dried up rivers and reservoirs, crop failures lakes 3 meters below their normal levels.

The situation in Bavaria was so bad in fact that half a million cattle had to be emergency slaughtered. Hydroelectric power plants had to be shut down due to a lack of water in the reservoirs, thus leading to power rationing.

Numerous forest fires broke out along the Bavarian-Austrian border near the Alps, where firefighters struggled for weeks to get the fire under control.

The agricultural soil was so dry after the summer harvest that “farmers plowed powdery dry land” and that following year’s crop yields would also be impacted.

Back then, everybody knew, however, that the cause was just Mother Nature being fickle as she always has been.




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Distinguished Professor: “Fed Up” With “Religious Climate Claptrap”…”Green Energy Fantasies”

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Prof. Dr. Knut Löschke, (photo above) Member of the University Council at the University of Leipzig, Member of the Board of Trustees of the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, came out and stated at Facebook not so long ago:

I’m fed up, or to put it even more clearly: I’m fed up with the permanent and increasingly religious climate claptrap, green energy fantasies, electric car worship, scary stories about doomsday scenarios from corona to conflagrations to weather catastrophes. I can no longer stand the people who shout this into microphones and cameras every day or print it in newspapers. I suffer from having to witness how natural science is turned into a whore of politics.

I am tired of being told what to be ashamed of by abused, pubescent children. I am tired of being told by some deranged people that I am to blame for everything and everyone – but especially as a German for the past, present and future misery of the whole world.”

Löschke, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Leipzig University Hospital and the IT consulting company Softline AG also added, among other criticisms:

I’m tired of seeing how completely uneducated people, who have done nothing in their lives except carry a foreign briefcase, believe they can rule Germany.

I can’t stand it any more when, under the pretext of a “colorful society”, law and security disappear and when, in the evening, coming out of the main station, you have to step over dirt, filth, homeless people, drug addicts and procuring criminals, past scrawled walls.

I would like that in my country the people, regardless of gender, skin color and origin, are valued and supported, who produce the wealth of the whole society every day with their diligent, productive and value-adding work: the employees in the companies, the craftsmen, the freelancers, the many committed and socially active entrepreneurs of the small and medium-sized economy. I want the teachers of our children, the doctors and nurses of our sick and needy to receive the recognition, appreciation and support they deserve every day. I want the young and the impetuous to let off steam within the well-established boundaries of our legal space, but also to bow before their parents and grandparents, before the old and the experienced, because they are the creators of their prosperity and freedom.”

Prof. Löschske is also a Member of the Enquete Commission „Artificial Intelligence“




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Glaring Inconsistency In Estimating CO2 vs. Solar Forcing Suggests CO2 Impacts Are Wildly Exaggerated

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From about 11,000 to 9,000 years ago the summer solar irradiance absorbed by the Earth’s surface has been estimated to be 40-60 W/m² greater than today from latitudes 40°N to 70°N (Ullman et al., 2015). These values seriously undermine the claim CO2 is the driver of climate change.

Image Source: Ullman et al., 2015

Despite these much higher insolation values, surface temperatures have been estimated to be only a few degrees warmer than today at these latitudes during the Early Holocene.

At 77°N in High Arctic Svalbard, for example, summers were estimated to be 7°C warmer than today from 10,000 to 9,000 years ago due to this higher radiative forcing (van der Bilt et al., 2019).

Image Source: van der Bilt et al., 2019

So if an additional 60 W/m² radiative forcing only elicits a 7°C surface temperature change, the effective sensitivity of a 1 W/m² perturbation to the surface energy imbalance would be about 0.12°C.

This formula (1 W/m² produces 0.12°C surface warming) has been reproduced by NASA and other scientists using satellite observations.

For example, the Mount Pinatubo eruption produced a surface temperature drop of -0.5°C to -0.6°C associated with a -4 W/m² decline in radiative forcing (Self et al., 1993). This is amounts to a 0.12°C to 0.15°C temperature sensitivity per W/m².

Image Source: Self et al., 1993

Other scientists (Douglass and Knox, 2005) have also computed a “0.15 ± 0.06 K/(W/m²)” radiative forcing-temperature sensitivity.

Image Source: Douglass and Knox, 2005

Anthropogenic global warming advocates suggest it takes an increase of 22 ppm CO2 (about 10 years) to produce a surface forcing change of 0.2 W/m² (Feldman et al., 2015).

Image Source: Feldman et al., 2015

So, using this formula, it would take 110 ppm (40-50 years) to produce a positive 1 W/m² surface forcing imbalance. This would only produce a temperature change of, at most, 0.15°C.

Bellamy and Barrett (2007) have likewise suggested the doubling of CO2 could only represent a temperature change of “0.6 – 0.8°C” with the addition of 280 ppm CO2 since the pre-industrial era. This estimate uses the assumption that doubling CO2 produces a 3.7 W/m² top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing.

Image Source: Bellamy and Barrett, 2007

Dr. Kimoto (2015), in contrast, suggests using the the surface radiative forcing value (1.1 W/m²) for doubling CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm rather than the TOA value (3.7 W/m²) due to the physical reality of water vapor, not CO2, dominating the infrared absorption in the lower atmosphere. He also computes a surface climate sensitivity of 0.13°C per 1 W/m².

Consequently, with doubled CO2 only yielding a 1.1 W/m² surface forcing perturbation to Earth’s energy imbalance, the climate sensitivity from doubling CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm may only be 0.14 to 0.17°C

Image Source: Kimoto, 2015

In sum, none of these values even remotely suggest CO2 can be a driver of climate change.

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As Climate Screamers Spread Alarm, Germany’s Long-Term Forest Fire Trend Has Declined

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Help! There’s fire!

By
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

It’s become an annual ritual. Every summer, when there has been little rain for a long time and unreasonable people set fire to forests, whether through intent or negligence, a solution comes into play: wind turbines.

Quaschning’s tweet in English:

There are people who obstruct wind turbines, supposedly in order to protect forests. But the opposite is true. Every obstructed wind turbine fires up the climate crisis with heat, drought and forest fires.”

(Image: Screenshot Twitter)

Old military grounds pose huge hazard to fire fighters

Of course, this is exactly what is happening with the current forest fire in Treuenbrietzen in Brandenburg, alarmists like Quaschning say. But, if you look very closely you will see that once again a forest area burned that had previously served as a military training area for several decades. Such areas are not easy to extinguish because firefighters put themselves in serious danger as remnants of ammunition are lying around everywhere. So the fire has an easy time when it can only be extinguished from a distance. Or, to put it another way, in forests without remnants of ammunition, firefighters would have fires under control quickly.

Nothing to do with temperature

What would help the forest is precipitation. Temperature is not the determining factor for forest fires, but the absence of rain. The forest would also be helped if people stopped handling fire in the forest during times of drought.

Yet we will read and hear the call for more wind power in the forests every time there is a forest fire from the likes of Big Wind lobbyists Volker Quaschning – and of course, without them addressing the forest floor contaminated with munitions. This has always been the case in recent years and has also been a topic in this blog. By the way, with the same protagonist as this year and almost word-same tweets.

Long-term downward trend

It is worth looking at the number of forest fires and the area of damage. The statistics of the Federal Office of Agriculture and Food are always released quite late (2021 is not yet available), but this “it’s getting worse” experience does not ring true up to 2020.

Three periods stand out: 1992, 2003, and 2018/2019.

2020 already returned to a low level. In 2019, there was a fire in Lübtheen (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania). Also there on a former military training area. Salvage tanks of the Bundeswehr had to move in and former employees of the site were located who still had ammunition maps. Only then could the fire be extinguished. There was also a fire in Jüterbog (Brandenburg) and, once again, on a military training area there as well. Both fires were very difficult to extinguish. Without the danger posed by the munitions, such fires could be controlled by local fire departments. However, this does not make a very good news story.

Number of forest fires and area burned in hectares. (Chart: Screenshot Umweltbundesamt.de)




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