Alarmist Scientist “Way Off Target” …Arctic Sea Ice/European Winter Claim Refuted By Newly Published Study

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Rahmstorf way off: New study finds no robust relationship between shrinking sea ice, European cold waves
By Die Kalte Sonne
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Photo: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

A good six years ago, Potsdam climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf was outraged by the German Weather Service (DWD) at his at Klimalounge site.

The DWD had the audacity to contradict Mr. Rahmstorf. Specifically, it was about the presumed connection between the expansion of Arctic sea ice and cold winter weather. Rahmstorf’s simple model: Less Arctic sea ice causes cold European winters. At the time, he led a conglomeration of studies and claimed:

In my view, the above studies provide clear evidence of a link between Arctic ice loss due to global warming, and more frequent winter high pressures, particularly over the Atlantic-European part of the Arctic, and the associated influx of cold air into Europe. As we have often experienced it in recent winters – for example spectacularly in the first half of February 2012.”

In the process Rahmstorf became verbally wild and didn’t hold back dishing it out: The DWD was embarrassing, incompetent in questions of climate change, that it could not even read scientific papers, the arguments were flat. It was an unusually aggressive style of discussion that is seldom encountered in science. Rahmstorf original:

However, the taz quoted [German paper] yesterday the spokesman of the German Weather Service [DWD in German] as saying that if there was a direct relationship with the sea ice cover,  the entire winter would have to be very cold in Germany.  I think this trivial argument with which he would like to wipe from the table the climate research results shown above is pretty embarrassing for the DWD.  Of course open water in the Arctic does not prevent stochastic weather variability. There will always be warm and cold periods. In all these studies it comes down to changing probabilities in the prevailing weather patterns: Petoukhov and Semenov estimate that the probability of cold winter extremes could triple, that is even in the Abstract. One wonders whether the DWD representative has read the relevant studies at all – and if not, why he feels the urge to comment on them in the media. Unfortunately, it has a certain tradition that meteorologists dealing with weather, are not familiar with climate science.”

More than half a decade has passed by since Rahmstorf’s rumblings. In the meantime, research has taken up the topic professionally and now has certainty: Rahmstorf was completely off the mark. Sea ice does not play a major role in the cold waves. Press release of the University of Exeter from August 12, 2019:

Arctic sea-ice loss has “minimal influence” on severe cold winter weather, research shows

The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice through climate change has only a ‘minimal influence’ on severe cold winter weather across Asia and North America, new research has shown.

The possible connection between Arctic sea-ice loss and extreme cold weather – such as the deep freezes that can grip the USA in the winter months – has long been studied by scientists. Observations show that when the regional sea-ice cover is reduced, swathes of Asia and North America often experience unusually cold and hazardous winter conditions. However, previous climate modelling studies have suggested that reduced sea ice cannot fully explain the cold winters.

Now, a new study by experts from the University of Exeter, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the Energy and Sustainability Research Institute in Groningen, has shed new light on the link between sea-ice loss and cold winters. For the research, the international team combined observations over the past 40 years with results from sophisticated climate modelling experiments. They found that the observations and models agreed that reduced regional sea ice and cold winters often coincide which each other.

They found that the correlation between reduced sea ice and extreme winters across the mid-latitude occurs because both are simultaneously driven by the same, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Crucially, it shows that reduced sea ice only has a minimal influence on whether a harsh and severe winter will occur. The study is published in leading science journal, Nature Climate Change.

Dr Russell Blackport, a Mathematics Research Fellow at the University of Exeter and lead author of the paper said: ‘The correlation between reduced sea ice and cold winters does not mean one is causing the other. We show that the real cause is changes in atmospheric circulation which moves warm air into the Arctic and cold air into the mid-latitudes.’ Over recent decades, the Arctic region has experienced warming temperatures through climate change, which has led to a large decline in sea-ice cover. This reduction in sea-ice cover means that areas of open water increase, which in turn allows the ocean to lose more heat to the atmosphere in winter – this can potentially alter the weather and climate, even well outside the Arctic.

Recent studies have suggested that the reduced sea ice or Arctic warming has contributed to recent cold winters experienced in the mid-latitude region – and that as the sea-ice reduces further through climate change, cold winters will become more frequent and severe. Now, this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation.

Professor James Screen, an Associate Professor in Climate Science at the University of Exeter said: ‘The are many reasons to be concerned about the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, but an increased risk of severe winters in North America and Asia is not one of them.’ Dr John Fyfe, a Research Scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, who was not involved in the research, writes in Nature Climate Change: ‘Blackport and colleagues put to rest the notion that Arctic sea-ice loss caused the cold mid-latitude winters, showing instead that atmospheric circulation changes preceded, and then simultaneously drove sea-ice loss and mid-latitude cooling.’

Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes by Russell Blackport, James Screen, Karin van der Wiel and Richard Bintanja is published in Nature Climate Change. It was funded through a grant by the Natural Environment Research Council.”

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New Paper: Volcanism Can Cool Earth For Centuries, Lead To More Natural Disasters, Pandemics, Economic Recession

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Scientists (Bragato and Holzhauser, 2019) find natural catastrophes like tornadoes and earthquakes and pandemics like plague, cholera, and influenza “concentrate in the periods of ice expansion in Europe” whereas periods of economic expansion and a lower incidence of natural catastrophes and pandemics occur during deglaciation phases, or warm periods. Century-scale cooling can be elicited by volcanism.

Image Source: Bragato and Holzhauser, 2019

Image Source: Bragato and Holzhauser, 2019

The conclusion that volcanism can trigger centuries of global-scale cooling – and that the Little Ice Age cooling was forced by explosive volcanism  – has also been postulated by McGregor et al., 2015.

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015
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‘You’ll Be Amazed,’ Says Book Review By Japan’s Sankei Shimbun On Marc Morano’s ‘Politically Incorrect Guide’

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Recently Japanese scientist Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda () retweeted about a newspaper book review appearing in the Sankei Shinbum, which reported on how Marc Morano’s best selling “The Politically Incorrect Guide To Climate Change” was hitting the book market in Japan.

Mr. Morano’s Politically Incorrect Guide book had been recently released in the Japanese version, translated from the English by Tadashi Watanabe, Professor Emeritus of Chemistry of the University of Tokyo and Professor of Tokyo University of Science Graduate School.

Mann lost in court

The Sankei Shimbun book review, authored by Shohei Nagatsuji, explains how this summer an event occurred and challenges the foundation on which the existing IPCC bases its CO2 global warming theory, but which went unreported in Japan. This August, the reliability of Dr. Michael Mann’s hockey stick graph was rocked after he had lost a defamation case against a Canadian researcher [Dr. Tim Ball], who had sharply criticized the hockey stick graph.

“Hundreds of factors” behind climate change

The Sankei Shimbun also reports how Mr. Marc Morano’s book -「地球温暖化」の不都合な真実』- presents the criticisms of Prof. Mann and the inside workings of IPCC.

The Japanese daily explains how Morano’s book cites scientists who say “temperature is mainly determined by water vapor and clouds, so even if CO2 is doubled or tripled, the situation would be almost the same” and that there are in fact “hundreds of factors contributing to climate change.”

Marc Morano’s best selling “The Politically Incorrect Guide To Climate Change” now in Japanese.

All focus on CO2 is “misplaced”

The Japanese daily also says Mr. Morano’s book shows how scientists from the UK and New Zealand saying that putting all the focus on CO2 is ” misplaced”.

“…amazed at each chapter”

According to the Sankei Shimbun:

We recommend you take this book because it is easy to read. You’ll be amazed at each chapter. It is full of scientific controversies and scandals over global warming that are not well understood in Japan.”

No consensus

The Sankei Shimbun concludes that Mr. Morano’s book provides “an overall picture of the global warming issue” and that it is an issue which “can be viewed from multiple perspectives.”

Overall it’s a very positive, welcome review for Marc Morano’s “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change” here in Japan. Recently Morano’s book has climbed near the top of the charts for books under Environment.

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Renowned German Geologist Shocks Audience: “Climate Change Totally Exaggerated”…”Warming Least Of Our Problems”

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It’s unusual to see rationality over climate change in the German media, but sometimes it manages to get through.

In April this year I missed an important podcast interview with one of the world’s most prominent Sahara Desert researchers, geologist Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, by the Düsseldorf-based German daily, Rheinische Post.

Image: University of Cologne

The two RP hosts conducting the interview seemed to expect Dr. Kröpelin would tell the audience how dire the consequences of man-made global warming are on the Sahara Desert and planet overall.

They didn’t get what they bargained for.

Warming does not lead to desertification

Instead, in the interview, Dr. Kröpelin rejected in very clear terms man’s major climatic impact and that global warming is only negative.

Kröpelin told listeners that history is very clear: When the globe is cold, the deserts expand. And when the globe is warm, deserts become greener and far more fruitful.

Kröpelin is a leading expert

Kröpelin has been studying the Sahara for over 40 years, spending weeks and months each year on site gathering data a reconstructing past climates. Nature described Kröpelin as “one of the most devoted Sahara explorers of our time.”

At about 9 minutes into the interview, he explains how the Sahara was massive in size during the last glacial period, and that about ten thousand years ago it greened up once temperatures shot up early in the Holocene.

When asked (10:15) if he worries that things in the Sahara “will get much worse” due to climate change, Kröpelin tells the host and audience: “First, that is a statement I 100% reject”, adding that localized desertification has more to do with the population growth at the edges of the desert and that the people who live there are cutting down trees and extracting water from the ground.

Rising precipitation, shrinking desert

Next (12:00), Kröpelin talks about the remote edges of the Sahara where few people live: “Here we signs that precipitation is increasing and that should the trend continue, the desert is going to shrink.” Similarly as it did at the end of the last glacial. “The Sahara changed from a desert to a savannah. These are not model simulations.” He says rather this is” based 100%” on real observations of a wide variety of proxy data taken throughout the region.

The greening of the Sahara “happened not because it got colder, but because it got warmer,” he said.

A third would become livable again

Kröpelin also shocks the host and audience, claiming that even if the climate models were true, which he says he doesn’t believe, “Maybe one third of the African continent will be a livable zone again. That would be an unbelievable advantage for the people in Sub-Saharan Africa. […] I dispute that over the last decades there’s been a climatically controlled increase of the desert.”

“Never been a stable climate”

On the subject of climate-induced human migration, Kröpelin says human migrations due to climate changes have always occurred. In the past sea level changes simply caused the people to step back or forwards a few meters. But today, the problem is that the built infrastructure is unable to move with the changes. “There’s never been a really stable climate.”

“What’s one meter from 4000?”

On sea level rise, Kröpelin plays down the changes that are occurring today, reminding us that the average depth of the ocean is some 4000 meters, noting.  “What’s one meter from 4000 meters of sea depth?”

Climate change “totally exaggerated”

When asked about the climate protests now taking place (21:00), Kröpelin comments: “I would say that today’s handling of climate change is hysterical” and that “we should not be dramatizing.”

The University of Cologne expert geologist says that by only looking at the last few decades, “We can naturally create panic. But I find it totally exaggerated.”

PIK painting “doomsday scenarios”

Kröpelin notes that the claim that global warming is all bad just “isn’t true” and that “the real catastrophe would be a dramatic drop in global temperature” and that “warming is the least of our problems.” He adds: “Climate change is totally exaggerated.”

He sharply criticizes the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for “painting doomsday scenarios” and says the topic has been heated up by politics.

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“Punitive Political Psychiatry” Coming To Germany? Leading Journal Defines Climate Science Dissent A Psychological Disorder

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Germany may be soon re-introducing a dark period where political opponents are simply declared mentally ill by the state and forcibly hospitalized for “treatment”.

Image: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, 1975

A case for psychotherapy

In a recent paper dubbed “The Denial of the Apocalypse – Dealing with the Climate Crisis from the Perspective of Existential Psychotherapy” appearing in the German Das Psychotherapeutenjournal (The Psychotherapist Journal), author Fabian Chmielewski explains which “denial processes are effective and what the psychotherapists could and should concretely do about it”.

Panic over climate change is normal

According to Chmielewski, a psychologist with a practice in Hattingen, being in panic about the rapidly approaching climate apocalypse is in fact rational behavior, while having doubts and remaining calm about it is abnormal and thus needs to be addressed.

The journal’s editorial, written by Hans Schindler, comments that although Chmielewski’s paper is contentious, it is “a suitable impetus for the necessary debate about the socio-political responsibility of our professional group and for the discussion about the possibilities – and limits – of engagement in our roles as psychotherapists and citizens.”

Leading journal in Germany

Das Psychotherapeutenjournal is not just some crackpot publication that gets little attention in Germany, rather it is indeed the organ of the Bavarian State Chamber of Psychological Psychotherapists.

The journal is co-financed by the membership fees of the other German state chambers and sent throughout Germany. It is the central organ of a corporation under public law, which represents the profession of psychotherapists by law.

Concrete psychotherapeutic ‘interventions’

The abstract of Fabian Chmielewski paper:

A broad consensus of serious research warns of the scenario of a soon inevitable spiral of man-made climate change. Nevertheless, both large sections of the population and decision-makers do not seem to be adequately interested in the impending destruction of the world as we know it. The gloomy prophecies of climate scientists are played down or even denied, the necessary climate policy steps are not taken. The article looks at these phenomena from the perspective of existential psychotherapy and tries to point out possible causes and mechanisms of this repression as well as to derive concrete psychotherapeutic ‘interventions’. It also argues for the active participation of psychotherapists in health campaigns against this widespread “existential neurosis”.

Chmielewski claims that the “Fridays for Future” strikes and demonstrations are the clearest and most media-effective indication of the impending doomsday scenario, and calls for the implementation of the drastic climate policy measures demanded by science and that both doctors and psychologists warn of the health consequences of climate change and give it top priority. Here, he suggests, panic is the psychologically appropriate response.

Top human health priority

Chmielewski notes that at its annual general meeting, the Marburger Bund (association of physicians) demands: “Stopping climate change caused by humans and its consequences for human health must also be given absolute priority in health policy action”.

“Existential threat”

In the paper, Chmielewski writes that in recent times, various psychologists and psychotherapists have marked climate change as an “existential threat” (Psychologists for Future, 2019).

And when it comes to scientific dissent with regards to the upcoming climate doomsday, auditor Chmielewski writes that despite the scientific certainty of climate doomsday:

Nevertheless, important decision-makers are either completely denying man-made climate change or trivializing it and the urgency of the pressure to act. […] A large part of the population does not seem to be adequately interested in the impending destruction of the world as we know it and – as Brick and van der Linden (2018) put it – has only one lethargic “yawn” left for the apocalypse. Even more questionable seems to be the motivation of people to reject the human cause of climate change as a lie – sometimes with astonishing aggressiveness and with reference to untenable conspiracy theories.”

Suggesting compulsory hospitalization, medication

Also commenting on Chmielewski’s paper at the critical German achgut.com here, Air Tuerkis notes that generally therapists are rightly afraid to impose a certain point of view on people. But according to Chmielewski: “Exceptions are to be made, however, if an acute own or foreign endangerment is present”.

Tuerkis continues:

The concept of an ‘acute danger to oneself or others‘ is quite explosive here. It releases the therapist, for example, from the duty of confidentiality. The term normally aims at impending criminal offences that pose a danger to life and limb and above all a the danger of suicide. In Bavaria the legislator speaks of a danger to public safety to a considerable extent.”

A ‘considerable and acute danger to oneself or others’ is even sufficient as a reason for compulsory hospitalisation and compulsory medication. In this case, the patient could be admitted provisionally for up to 48 hours without a court order.”

In other words, back to the dark days days of Soviet-style punitive political psychiatry. Dissenters should be medicated into changing their views.
=======================================================

Suggested other reading: Prof Richard Parncutt suggests death penalty for influential climate deniers.

And here’s another whopper: 10:10 No Pressure.

 

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During The Last Ice Age (190 ppm CO2), Horses Grazed In A Forested, Warmer-Than-Today Arctic Alaska

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In a new study, scientists report that about  17,000 to 20,000 years ago, when CO2 levels hovered near 190 ppm, “summer temperatures were higher here [North Slope, Alaska] than they are today” (Kuzmina et al., 2019).

Image Source: Guthrie and Stoker, 1990 and The New York Times

In the modern climate, North Slope, Alaska (north of the Arctic circle) has a mossy tundra terrain and an absence of trees.

About 8,000 to 9,000 years ago, with CO2 levels lingering around 260 ppm, this region was imbued with both trees and animal species that today live many 100s of km south (Kuzmina et al., 2019).

Even during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 17,000 to 20,000 years ago, when CO2 levels hovered near 190 ppm, “summer temperatures were higher here than they are today” (Kuzmina et al., 2019).

Image Source: Kuzmina et al., 2019

During the LGM, horses were the most common large animal living in this region of the Arctic, followed by bison. Horses had a “substantial dietary volume” of dried grasses year-round, even in winter (Guthrie and Stoker, 1990).

Even though CO2 concentrations have reached 410 ppm today, 220 ppm higher than during the LGM, Northern Alaska is too snow-covered and frigid for horses to occupy this region now.

As Guthrie and Stoker, 1990 conclude, the Arctic is presently “no place for horses” because there is too little for them to eat, and the food there is to eat is “deeply buried by snow”.

Image Source: Guthrie and Stoker, 1990
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Price Shock! German Consumer Electricity Rates Climb To “New Record High”, Reaching A Whopping 30.85 Cents/Kwh!

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More pain for consumers. Electricity prices in Germany climb to a new high, reaching 30.85 cents (euro) per kilowatt hour. Experts warn transition to green energies may lead to shortages, higher prices.

German online national daily Die Welt here reports on how electricity prices in the country have reached “a new high” and that natural gas prices are high as well.

The German national news daily writes: “Electricity has never been as expensive for private households in Germany as it is this year.”

“Prices have risen to a new high,” Die Welt reports, citing the latest data from German Federal Network Agency.

For the first time, electricity prices for consumers reached 30 cents (euro) per kilowatt-hour, making German electric prices among the highest in the world.

Citing data from the Federal Network Agency, the average price soared to 30.85 cents (euro) per kilowatt hour, which works out to be an increase of almost 3.3 percent compared to just a year earlier. Last year the average price for one kilowatt hour was 29.88 cents.

According to Die Welt: “The Federal Network Agency evaluates the data of well over 1000 electricity suppliers.”

Why is electricity so expensive in Germany?

The Federal Network Agency puts the blame on the electricity wholesalers who, according to Die Welt, “pass on increases to the electricity exchange”.

And an end in the rising price spiral remains elusive, experts warn.

“Wholesale prices for electricity could continue to rise,” Die Welt reports. Large power producers such as RWE, warn that future plant closures due to the transition to green energies and the phasing out of the country’s nuclear power plants will “lead to a shortage”.

Die Welt ends its article: “The largest block on the electricity bill, however, are taxes, levies and allocations, which account for more than half of the total price.” One major price driver are the mandatory, exorbitantly high green energy feed-in tariffs that grid operators are forced to pay.

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German Environmental Movement Co-Founder, Professor Calls FFF Movement Hysterical, Overhyped …Real Threat To Economy

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Yesterday the online Hamburg Abendblatt published an interview with Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt on the recent climate demonstrations and alarmism. Vahrenholt calls the demonstrations and demands “over-the-top”, and a real threat to the economy. He says the climate models are unreliable and predictions of great warming “absurd”.

Co-founder of Germany’s modern environmental movement, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. Image: GWPF

Vehrenholt is one of founders of Germany’s modern environmental movement, the founder of the country’s largest renewable energy company, Innogy and a member of Germany’s SPD socialist parties. Lately the retired professor has become renegade among his peers by criticizing the “over-the-top climate debate” and warning against “hasty reforms”.

Atmosphere of fear and hysteria

Vahrenholt tells the Abendblatt the climate debate has become hysterical and that in fact “we don’t have a climate emergency.” He adds: “If Greta Thunberg’s demands are implemented, global prosperity and development will be massively endangered.”

Vahrenholt is one of the more prominent signatories of the letter to the UN: “There is no climate emergency.”

In the interview with the Abendblatt, Vahrenholt rejects Thunberg’s  bleak world view, noting that human society has markedly improved on almost every front over the recent decades.

“The number of hungry people in the world has halved, life expectancy has doubled, and infant mortality has been reduced to tenths. These successes have been largely due to the supply of energy for electricity, heat, transport and nutrition,” said Vahrenholt.

When asked why so few German scientists (12) signed letter to the UN, Vahrenholt told the Abendblatt: “People no longer dare to express themselves differently.”

The German chemistry professor says spreading panic and fear is “irresponsible” and that we should: “Stop scaring the children – they are already getting delusions.”

Climate models still unreliable

Vahrenholt then tells the Abendblatt that “we have until the end of the century” to tackle greenhouse emissions – and not 12 years –  and that the situation is nowhere near as serious as the alarmist voices claim it is. Moreover, Vahrenholt reminds that the models still – which serve as the basis for the panic – have a long way to go before being reliable: “Many climate models have been shown to show too much warming and cannot reproduce the fluctuations of the past because they know only one factor: CO2.”

Later in the interview he asks: “What are we to think of models that neither reproduce the Little Ice Age nor the Medieval Warm Period – when it was about as warm as it is today?” In other words: If they don’t even work for the past, then they are completely unreliable for the future.

CO2 greens the planet

Vahrenholt reminds the Abendblatt that the added CO2 has in fact made the planet greener because of the boosted photosynthesis.

Only small number of scientists say man is 100% responsible

When asked about the 97% consensus, Vahrenholt tells the Hamburg-based daily that very few scientists deny CO2 has a warming effect, but adds: “Only a small minority believe that climate change is 100 percent man-made, and the vast majority believe in several causes.”

Green movement a real economic threat

Vahrenholt agrees that we have to reduce emissions, “but not commit suicide.”

The retired German professor advises against a hasty shutdown of coal energy, and warns it would lead to far greater poverty, even in prosperous Germany: “If we get out of coal and the combustion engine by 2030, then what will become of this country?

The retired professor also rejects the claims he turned his back on environmental protection, rather he has “stayed true to the cause”.

Schellnhuber’s 6°C warming a scandal, absurd

Near the end of the interview, Vahrenholt tells the Abendblatt he thinks the globe will warm about 1.5° by 2100, i.e. the low end of the IPCC’s 1.5 – 4.5°C projected range. He characterizes Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber’s 6°C rise – and the applause it always gets – as a “scandal” and being “absurd”.

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A New Study Finds Rising Sea Levels PROTECT Coral Reefs From Bleaching And Mass Deaths

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Long-term observation of coral reefs indicate rising sea levels “not only promoted coral cover” but also “limit damaging effects of thermally-induced bleaching” (Brown et al., 2019).

Image Source: Brown et al., 2019

This new paper  is an expansion of the research conducted by the same lead author in 2011 (Brown et al.). Brown and colleagues concluded a growth in coral cover is positively correlated with rising sea levels. The authors further suggest “the overall picture for these shallow coral reefs is a positive one” due to rising sea levels and rapid recovery rates.

Image Source: Brown et al., 2011

Another new study (Zinke et al., 2019) indicates there is no correlation between coral growth rates (calcification, skeletal density) and long-term (since 1910) changes in sea surface temperatures. In other words, a regional warming trend in the tropical Atlantic has not been associated with a decline in coral cover.

Image Source: Zinke et al., 2019
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Flawed Models…”Flat Earth” Climate Simulations Overstate CO2, Falsify Sun And Aerosols

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Climate modelers continue to make fatal modeling flaws, scientists find. The earth is not flat.

Example Earth energy balance chart. Source: US National Weather Service – public domain.

German climate scientist Dr. Sebastian Lüning comments on climate models at the Die kalte Sonne website. Dr Lüning cites a recently published paper by Prather and Hsu, who claim that the models assume the earth to be flat, and thus result in major inaccuracies in their results.

“The real flat-earthers are the climate modelers,” Lüning says.
================================

By
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Did you know that all climate models assume a flat earth? Hard to believe, but unfortunately true. A study by Michael Prather and Juno Hsu in PNAS explains that this simplification causes powerful distortions in computer simulations.:

A round Earth for climate models

Sunlight drives the Earth’s weather, climate, chemistry, and biosphere. Recent efforts to improve solar heating codes in climate models focused on more accurate treatment of the absorption spectrum or fractional clouds. A mostly forgotten assumption in climate models is that of a flat Earth atmosphere. Spherical atmospheres intercept 2.5 W⋅m−2 more sunlight and heat the climate by an additional 1.5 W⋅m−2 globally. Such a systematic shift, being comparable to the radiative forcing change from preindustrial to present, is likely to produce a discernible climate shift that would alter a model’s skill in simulating current climate. Regional heating errors, particularly at high latitudes, are several times larger. Unlike flat atmospheres, constituents in a spherical atmosphere, such as clouds and aerosols, alter the total amount of energy received by the Earth. To calculate the net cooling of aerosols in a spherical framework, one must count the increases in both incident and reflected sunlight, thus reducing the aerosol effect by 10 to 14% relative to using just the increase in reflected. Simple fixes to the current flat Earth climate models can correct much of this oversight, although some inconsistencies will remain.

Significance

Early climate and weather models, constrained by computing resources, made numerical approximations on modeling the real world. One process, the radiative transfer of sunlight through the atmosphere, has always been a costly component. As computational ability expanded, these models added resolution, processes, and numerical methods to reduce errors and become the Earth system models that we use today. While many of the original approximations have since been improved, one—that the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are locally flat—remains in current models. Correcting from flat to spherical atmospheres leads to regionally differential solar heating at rates comparable to the climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols. In addition, spherical atmospheres change how we evaluate the aerosol direct radiative forcing.

The authors stress that the resulting errors are in the order of magnitude of the greenhouse gas forcing. Thus the solar irradiation and the aerosol forcing are falsified.

So in the future, when someone insults annoying climate critics again as “flat-world supporters”, the answer is basically clear: The real “flat earthers” are climate modelers who still simulate flat worlds due to their limited computer computing power, and who have not yet been able to simulate the real world…

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German Skeptics Report On Risks Of Expressing Climate Views At FFF Friday Strikes … “Bomb” Threat

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What follows is a field report from Hanover, Germany, by AGW skeptic organization KlimaKontroverse, who have attempted on multiple occasions to seek a rational dialogue with FridaysforFuture (FFF) demonstrators. Though some demonstrators were civil and polite, others harassed, defamed and even brought in Antifa.

Intolerant times

Taking a different view at a political demonstration in Germany is a risky affair, and could get you a bloody nose, or worse. So it really is an act of courage for these climate skeptic KlimaKontroverse citizens to go out to present their non-conforming views at these FFF demonstrations – especially when one considers how emotionalized and radical some have become.

As Greta has demonstrated herself, there’s lots of pent-up anger, impatience and intolerance out there.

Staying calm and respectful

Personally, as author of this blog, I’m actually considering showing up and joining KlimaKontroverse at an upcoming event. I’m a bit familiar with the KlimaKontroverse people, and I can assure you they are calm, friendly, respectful and go the extra mile to avoid provocation and confrontation.
=============================================

FridaysForFuture – and dealing with alternative opinions

by Klaus Öllerer
(German text translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

The FridaysForFuture movement has strict targets that would mean drastic consequences for all of the people living here. But what if you disagree? What if, after an intensive study of these issues, completely different conclusions emerge? Of course, it is obvious to go and discuss them – as is customary in democracy. Or perhaps better – should be usual again.First we began with e-mails and telephone calls offering discussion. No reaction. No willingness to talk to each other. FridaysForFuture did not react.

Some polite, respectful demonstrators

So we went to the climate strike meetings at Kröpcke, distributed our “Open Letter” and tried to get into conversation. Some conversations with participants were constructive and in the spirit of mutual respect. We listened to each other. That was nice.

“Stalking” and intimidation

But some leading persons and FFF orderlies reacted very differently. They stalked us and demanded we leave the square as they grew increasingly angry. We insisted on our democratic right to express our opinion freely in public space. At some point they also approached the police – but the officers agreed with us. We distributed our flyers and discussed with demonstrators (15 February 2019).

“Climate lies”

But at the next demonstration, the FridaysForFuture orderlies thought of something special, and it looked like this: The FFF orderlies brought a bag with the inscription “Klimalügen” (climate lies) and spoke to the passers-by and demonstrators who had taken our flyers. If they managed to convince a passer-by to surrender the flyer, they threw it in the “climate lies” bag. The finale: Our flyers were demonstratively torn in front of our eyes. (15 March 2019).

 

“Bomb” threat

At one of the next demonstrations, we had set up our stand just across from the Hanover main station. The demonstration passed by. The left picture below shows leftist autonomists and Antifa marching up front. They called out aggressively: “Climate deniers! Climate deniers! …”.

Then suddenly someone from the march charged towards our stand (middle picture), threw something under our table and shouted “Bomb!” before quickly running away and rejoining the marchers (right picture). The thrown object turned out to be harmless (5 July 2019).

But even so, KlimaKontroverse.de’s offer to enter a dialogue and to discuss in the truly democratic tradition remains open.

www.KlimaKontroverse.de

About us: We are an initiative in Linden (Germany) that meets regularly at the Freizeitheim in Linden. Easy comprehensibility and the open discussion of different views are at its foreground and should be a trademark of this initiative. KlimaKontroverse.de appears publicly. info@KlimaKontroverse.de, www.KlimaKontroverse.de.

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“Climate Protection” Obsession Moves From Depression To Insanity…”Need To Eat Humans, Babies!”

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(UPDATE: 5 October 2019) It was a well executed hoax. https://cliscep.com/2019/10/04/aoc-trolled-by-swiftian-satire/ (Note: A number of US Democrats and activists support late-term, partial birth abortions, so it’s not unreasonable to think this was real).

UPDATE 4 Oct 2019: https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/10/04/watch-aoc-duped-by-climate-trolls-unbelievable-plea-to-eat-the-babies/

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There’s little doubt among the many cooler skeptic heads that the global climate change movement has gone off the rails in terms of sanity, and continues to do so in a spectacular fashion.

The madness has arrived.

The latest example is presented to us by Ryan Saavedra of the Daily Caller. One of AOC’s constituents hysterically claims that eating humans, as suggested by one Swedish professor, isn’t going to cut it when it comes to rescuing the planet. Her solution:

“We need to eat the babies!”

First, if I were a policeperson, I’d certainly would look to see if that insane woman might be missing any kids, or if her neighbors are missing any – seriously. If not, that poor woman needs psychiatric care very quickly.

One thing we note when we scan the faces in the crowd, is that they don’t show even an inkling of happiness at all. They are all frozen in depression, frustration and anger. If you’re in a good, happy mood, then standing less than 30 seconds in that room will change that. The hysterical woman shows that things are progressing from depression and anger to insanity.

How can people allow themselves to be talked nto depression, and later a level of insanity put on display by Ms. Baby-Eater?

It shouldn’t surprise us that when people like Greta and the lunatic media spread all the panic and fan the flames of irrationality, it’s just a question of time before those already on the fringes start falling off the deep end and potentially become a real danger.

Ms. Baby-Eater herself likely used to be one of those depressed, angry faces in the crowd. Then enter Greta and the media.

It’s also astonishing that AOC fields the question and comments as if it were a legitimate one. She should have simply just called the woman’s rant for what is was: utter lunacy. But then again, we live in times where very-late term abortions are okay!

I suspect this is just the beginning. Never underestimate the potential of human insanity, especially when it’s claimed to be backed by “science”. History is filled with such monumental tragedies.

It’s time to take the kooks out of the solution-making and handing that responsibility over to cooler heads.

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55 New (2019) Scientific Papers Link Solar Activity To Climate Change

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In the last few years, hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published linking changes in solar activity to Earth’s climate (2016, 2017, 2018). The evidence for a robust Sun-Climate connection continues to accumulate in 2019.

When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation.

The disagreement is so chasmic and the mechanisms are so poorly understood that scientists’ estimates of the influence of direct solar irradiance forcing between the 17th century and today can range between a negligible +0.1 W m-2 to a very robust +6 W m-2 (Egorova et al., 2018Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018).

There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcingThe estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate.”  (Egorova et al., 2018)
“According to the IPCC (2013), solar forcing is extremely small and cannot induce the estimated 1.0–1.5 °C since the LIA. However, thesolar radiative forcing is quite uncertain because from 1700 to 2000 the proposed historical total solar irradiance reconstructions vary greatly from a minimum of 0.5 W/m2 to a maximum of about 6 W/m2 (cf..: Hoyt and Schatten 1993; Wang et al. 2005; Shapiro et al. 2011). Moreover, it is believed that the sun can influence the climate also via a magnetically induced cosmic ray flux modulation (e.g.: Kirkby 2007) or via heliospheric oscillation related to planetary resonances (e.g.: Scafetta 2013, 2014b; Scafetta et al. 2016, and others). Since solar and climate records correlate quite significantly throughout the Holocene (cf: Kerr 2001; Steinhilber et al. 2012; Scafetta 2012, 20104b), the results shown herein may be quite realistic, although the exact physical mechanisms linking astronomical forcings to climate change are still poorly understood.”  (Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018)

Thus far in 2019, 55 scientific papers have been located that link solar forcing to climate changes.  This is an incomplete compilation and it is likely to swell to about ~100 papers by year’s end or upon further review.

Such a large volume of research devoted to finding connections between the Sun’s variability and its effect on the Earth’s climate system would seem to contradict the conclusion that there is widespread consensus that the Sun’s climate impact is negligible.

Below are the first 12 papers on the list. For the rest of the compilation, click here.


Scafetta and Willson, 2019     The consistent downward trending of the PMOD TSI composite is negatively correlated with the global mean temperature anomaly during 1980–2000. This has been viewed with favor by those supporting the COanthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis since it would minimize TSI variation as a competitive climate change driver to CO2, the featured driver of the hypothesis during the period (cf.: [IPCC, 2013, Lockwood and Fröhlich, 2008]). .. Our summary conclusion is that the objective evidence produced by all of the independent TSI composites [3,5, 6, 9] agrees better with the cycle-by-cycle trending of the original ACRIM science team’s composite TSI that shows an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter. The continuously downward trending of the PMOD composite and TSI proxy models is contraindicated. … PMOD’s modifications of the published ACRIM and ERB TSI records are questionable because they are based on conforming satellite observational data to proxy model predictions. … ACRIM shows a 0.46 W/m2 increase between 1986 and 1996 followed by a decrease of 0.30 W/m2 between 1996 and 2009. PMOD shows a continuous, increasing downward trend with a 1986 to 1996 decrease of 0.05 W/m2 followed by a decrease of 0.14 W/m2 between 1996 and 2009. The RMIB composite agrees qualitatively with the ACRIM trend by increasing between the 1986 and 1996 minima and decreasing slightly between 1996 and 2009. … ACRIM composite trending is well correlated with the record of global mean temperature anomaly over the entire range of satellite observations (1980–2018) [Scafetta. 2009]. The climate warming hiatus observed since 2000 is inconsistent with CO2 anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) climate models [Scafetta, 2013, Scafetta, 2017]. This points to a significant percentage of the observed 1980–2000 warming being driven by TSI variation [Scafetta, 2009, Willson, 2014, Scafetta. 2009]. A number of other studies have pointed out that climate change and TSI variability are strongly correlated throughout the Holocene including the recent decades (e.g., Scafetta, 2009,  Scafetta and Willson, 2014, Scafetta, 2013Kerr, 2001, Bond et al., 2001, Kirkby, 2007, Shaviv, 2008, Shapiro et al., 2011, Soon and Legates, 2013, Steinhilber et al., 2012, Soon et al., 2014). .. The global surface temperature of the Earth increased from 1970 to 2000 and remained nearly stable from 2000 and 2018. This pattern is not reproduced by CO2 AGW climate models but correlates with a TSI evolution with the trending characteristics of the ACRIM TSI composite as explained in Scafetta [6,12, 27] and Willson [7].

Pei et al., 2019     During the period of 0–10,000 yr BP, China’s temperature has closely followed the solar forcing. The correlation is as high as 0.800 (p < 0.01) for the EOF-based reconstruction. … Similar to the North Atlantic SST, AO also plays an important role in China’s temperature (Zuo et al., 2015). NAO and AO are both suggested to influence the climate in East Asia by modifying the strength and location of the 200 hPa jet stream (Yang et al., 2004). The AO record of Darby et al. (2012) is based on sea-ice drift, which has a high resolution of 10–100 years and shows a close connection with solar activities.

Jiao et al., 2019     Regional climate change is affected by large-scale climate-forcing factors, such as solar activity and atmospheric–oceanic variability (Fang et al., 2010; Linderholm et al., 2015; Rydval et al., 2017). On the one hand, based on the MTM analysis results, the temperature changes in the study area are mainly influenced by the solar activity via the mean minimum temperature within approximately 11-year periods (Li et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2015). The tree-ring chronology was developed by samples of Schrenk spruce collected from the National Nature Reserve of the Western Tianshan Mountains. The mean minimum temperature in the growing season is the main and stable limiting climate factor. Therefore, the mean minimum temperature series in the growing season during 1680–2012 was reconstructed based on the STD chronology. In the past 333 years, the mean minimum temperature has roughly experienced three relatively cold periods and relatively warm stages (relatively cold periods: 1680–1707, 1802–1911 and 1935–1997; relatively warm periods: 1708–1801, 1912–1934 and 1998–2012). By analyzing similar trends in regional temperature changes in our reconstruction series with drought events, large volcanic eruptions and other reconstruction series around the study regions in Xinjiang and even large-scale regions, we found that the mean minimum temperature of the reconstruction was accurate and reliant. Moreover, the mean minimum temperature was influenced by solar activity (sunspots) and large-scale atmospheric–oceanic fluctuations (NAO, WPO, ENSO, TBO) based on the MTM and spatial correlation analysis.

Zharkova et al., 2019     Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. … These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.
Deke et al., 2019     The results provide robust evidence for synchronous ~500-yr cyclical changes in monsoon climate, human activity and prehistoric cultural development in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region during the Holocene. Six prosperous phases of Neolithic and Bronze Age cultures correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened EASM, except for the first expansion of the Hongshan culture, which corresponds to the phase of strongest EASM in the middle Holocene. We suggest that humans responded to climatic fluctuations with different social strategies, leading to the rise and fall of early complex societies in the region.
(press release)      The climate theory casting new light on the history of Chinese civilisation … Researchers say that when 500-year-long sun cycles brought warmth, communities flourished, but when the Earth cooled, ancient societies collapsed. … Scientists say they have found evidence beneath a lake in northeastern China that ties climate change and 500-year sun cycles to ups and downs in the 8,000 years of Chinese civilisation. According to the study by a team at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics in Beijing published in the science journal Nature Communications this month, whenever the climate warmed, Chinese civilisation prospered and when it cooled, it declined.
Jin et al., 2019     We show that a strong 11-year solar cycle can excite a resonant response of the intrinsic leading mode of the AWM [Asian winter monsoon] variability, resulting in a significant signal of decadal variation. The leading mode, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Siberia, responds to the maximum solar irradiance with a peculiar 3 to 4-year delay. We propose a new mechanism to explain this delayed response, in which the 11-year solar cycle affects the AWM via modulating Arctic sea ice variation during the preceding summer. At the peak of the accumulative solar irradiance (i.e., 4 years after the maximum solar irradiance), the Arctic sea ice concentration reaches a minimum over the Barents–Kara Sea region accompanied by an Arctic sea surface warming, which then persists into the following winter, causing Arctic high-pressure extend to the Ural mountain region, which enhances Siberian High and causes a bitter winter over the northern Asia.
Horikawa et al., 2019     The Mg/Ca-derived SST record clearly represented five warmer periods at 6200–6000, 4900–4500, 4200–3800, 2600–2100, and 900–400 cal. year BP, almost consistent with previously published diatom records. These warmer events also corresponded to the periods in which warm molluscan assemblages increased at the northern end of the TWC, suggesting that periods of higher SST can be seen as reflecting the increased volume transport of the TWC. We interpreted the results of a model study showing that higher solar irradiance provoked positive Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like spatial patterns and the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to mean that increased (reduced) TWC volume transport on the multi-centennial to millennial time scales was caused by high (low) solar insolation via a potential link between AO and PDO.
Kossobokov et al., 2019     On the Diversity of Long-Term Temperature Responses to Varying Levels of Solar Activity at Ten European Observatories … In the present paper, we propose a short but in-depth overview of a very specific topic, i.e., the statistical testing of hypotheses related to solar influence on regional temperature regimes at the time scale of several decades. … These new observations lead us to conclude that the climate in different regions presents different responses to variations in solar activity. Moreover, the distributions of the lower, middle, and higher quartiles of the temperature and pressure indices in solar cycles with high versus low activity are significantly different, providing further robust statistical confirmation to this conclusion (confidence level higher to much higher than 99% using the Kuiper test).
Wu et al., 2019     On the centennial to millennial time scale, the results of wavelet analysis and band‐pass filtering show that the occurrence and development of El Niño have also promoted a weaker EAWM after ~6.0 ka cal. BP, which is inversely correlated with the variation of the ca. 500‐year cycle originated from changes in solar output. These results imply that the climate transition in the midHolocene is caused by the change of variations in solar activity and amplified by ocean circulation El NiñoSouthern Oscillation to influence the East Asian Monsoon system, especially the EAWM, and finally change the vegetation in Great Khingan Mountain Range.
(press release)     Lead scientist Dr Wu Jing, from the Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the study had found no evidence of human influence on northern China’s warming winters. … The study found that winds from Arctic Siberia have been growing weaker, the conifer tree line has been retreating north, and there has been a steady rise in biodiversity in a general warming trend that continues today. It appears to have little to do with the increase in greenhouse gases which began with the industrial revolution, according to the researchers. As a result of the research findings, Wu said she was now more worried about cooling than warming.
Wang et al., 2019     Here we present the first high-resolution stable isotope (δ13C and δ18O) speleothem record from northern Laos spanning the Common Era (∼50 BCE to 1880 CE). The δ13C record reveals substantial centennialscale fluctuations primarily driven by local water balance. Notably, the driest period at our site occurred from ∼1280 to 1430 CE, during the time of the Angkor droughts, supporting previous findings that this megadrought likely impacted much of Mainland Southeast Asia. In contrast, variations in stalagmite δ18O reflect changes in rainfall upstream from our study site. Interestingly, the δ18O record exhibits a positive correlation with solar activity that persists after 1200 CE, contrary to the findings in previous studies. Solar-forced climate model simulations reveal that these δ18O variations may be driven by solar-forced changes in upstream rainout over the tropical Indian Ocean, which modify the δ18O of moisture transported to our study site without necessarily affecting local rainfall amount. We conclude that future rainfall changes in Mainland Southeast Asia are likely to be superimposed on multi-decadal to centennial-scale variations in background climate driven primarily by internal climate variability, whereas solar forcing may impact upstream rainout over the Indian Ocean.
Misios et al., 2019     The Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) fluctuates on interannual and multidecadal timescales under the influence of internal variability and external forcings. Here, we provide observational evidence that the 11-y solar cycle (SC) affects the PWC on decadal timescales. We observe a robust reduction of east–west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following 1–2 y. This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific paired with an eastward shift of convective precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. We show that this is initiated by a thermodynamical response of the global hydrological cycle to surface warming, further amplified by atmosphere–ocean coupling, leading to larger positive ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific than expected from simple radiative forcing considerations. The observed solar modulation of the PWC is supported by a set of coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model simulations forced only by SC irradiance variations. We highlight the importance of a muted hydrology mechanism that acts to weaken the PWC. Demonstration of this mechanism acting on the 11-y SC timescale adds confidence in model predictions that the same mechanism also weakens the PWC under increasing greenhouse gas forcing.
Bhargawa and Singh, 2019     Since the Sun is the main source of energy for our planet therefore even a slight change in its output energy can make a huge difference in the climatic conditions of the terrestrial environment. The rate of energy coming from the Sun (solar irradiance) might affect our climate directly by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and the atmosphere and indirectly by changing the cloud forming processes. … In our investigation, we have observed that the impact of solar irradiance on the global surface temperature level in next decade will increase by ∼4.7% while the global mean sea level will increase about 0.67%. In the meantime, we have noticed about 5.3% decrement in the global sea-ice extent for the next decade. In case of the global precipitation anomaly we have not observed any particular trend just because of the variable climatic conditions. We also have studied the effect of CO2 as anthropogenic forcing where we have observed that the global temperature in the next decade will increase by 2.7%; mean sea level will increase by 6.4%. Increasing abundance in CO2 will be responsible for about 0.43% decrease in the sea-ice extent while there will not be any change in the precipitation pattern.
Zaffar et al., 2019     This study shows that every value of El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) Cycles and Sunspot Cycles are strongly correlated to preceding values in both the self-similar and self-affine cases. Unit root test is applied to the tail parameter and the strength of long range-correlation of El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) and Sunspot Cycles confirms stationary behavior of the parameters. The variation of earth climatic has a strong influence in Sunspots Cycles and El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) Cycles. Sunspots and El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) have strong correlation with each other (Asma et  al. 2018). The El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) cycles influence on the variation of the parameter of local climate which depends on the changes in solar activity.
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Dutch Farmers’ Uprising Is Latest Signal Europeans Are Getting Fed Up With Environmental Overreach

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Dutch farmers are angry – so much so that hundreds of them have mobilized their tractors and are blocking highways and creating havoc across the Netherlands.

The German language agraraheute.de (Agriculture Today) reports here: “Farmers in the Netherlands are fed up always being the whipping boy of the nation.”

Shutting down modern agriculture

According to agrarheute journalist, Eva Eckinger, all this was triggered by “radical demands made by the leftist liberal D66 government party.” The party is demanding the elimination of half of the country’s livestock!

D66 parliamentarian Tjeerd de Groot said: “There’s no future for intensive animal farming in the Netherlands.”

With their tractors, the angry farmers have wreaked havoc on traffic throughout the Netherlands. According to Germany’s Spiegel, the protesting farmers in the Netherlands have “caused hundreds of kilometers of traffic jams.”

“They blocked the access roads to The Hague with tractors.”

Fox News here reported that the farmers clogged “700 miles of highway” during the protest over emissions rules.

Demanding farmers make extraordinary sacrifices

According to De Groot, nitrogen emissions by agriculture is causing great damage, and a large proportion of Dutch nitrogen emissions comes from intensive livestock farming and so need to be curbed quickly.

De Groot is calling on farmers farmers to practice “closed-loop farming”, where there is a significant reduction in the number of animals and that its implementation should start quickly.

Spreading discontent

Dutch agricultural associations reacted angrily to De Groot’s proposal and said “the agricultural sector had already done a lot to improve sustainability” and so “the sector deserves a compliment – not a halving.”

The Dutch protests come at the heels of the French yellow vest protests, which are aimed at the high fuel taxes imposed on French citizens and businesses, and are the latest, clear signals that citizens are not going to take draconian environmental regulation and harsh climate protection policies quietly.

Growing chasm between ecological and economic interests

The Dutch protests highlight the economic difficulty governments have when they try to pass eco-friendly laws and reducing emissions. Despite the dubious claims that the two can go hand in hand, it is not the case as recent protests are showing. Across Europe there is a rapidly growing chasm between economic interests and radical environmental aims.

“A lot at stake”

As the New York Times reports: “There is a lot at stake: According to the Dutch farmers’ organization, LTO, exports from the Netherlands’ nearly 54,000 farms and agriculture businesses were worth 90.3 billion euros ($98.3 billion) last year.”

That’s just one sector in a small European country. Imagine the things to come should major continentwide industries like petroleum, tourism and airlines, etc. be hit – or the German auto industry.

The radical environmentalists are keeping their social-economic powder kegs awfully dry.

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German Public Television Editor, Green Party Leader Calling For A Little Dictatorship To Solve The ‘Climate Crisis’

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For the perceived destruction of the planet, angry teenage activist Greta Thunberg puts the blame on economic growth and capitalism. Yet she doesn’t talk much about any alternative system that could provide for our needs.

The question arises: Is it even possible for human society to progress without economic growth?

An ecological Chinese-style global economy

One chief editor at German WDR public television thinks it is possible: People will just have to get used to austerity.

In an interview, Ulrich Ueckerseifer told the WDR that it would be possible for a global economy to function without growth “in the form of a managed market economy, for example. In a nutshell: a bit like China, but ecologically”.

Ueckerseifer said to do this there would have to be very strong targets and limits and that “no more environmental pollution would be allowed to be produced”.

Learning to go without

The WDR chief business editor said this would require “a high level of willingness on the part of the population to do without.”

Dictatorship “the most socially just”

A growing number of activists and political leaders are seeing growth and sustainability as being incompatible, and many are calling for a system of rigid regulation. For example, German Green Party leader Annalena Baerbock sees regulatory measures as a central element for better climate protection.

According to German weekly FOCUS here: “Yes, for me regulatory law is the central element, because it is also the most socially just. This is also the instrument in environmental policy that has always helped us,” Baerbock told Deutschlandfunk radio.

How nice. All our climate “problems” can be solved – with just a little bit of dictatorship!

Already again authoritarian ideas and dreams are in vogue in the German political discourse.

.

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New Study: Modern Arctic Sea Ice Cover Is Present MONTHS Longer Than Nearly All Of The Last 8000 Years

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A new reconstruction of Arctic (NW Greenland) sea ice cover (Caron et al., 2019) reveals modern day sea ice is present multiple months longer than almost any time in the last 8000 years…and today’s summer sea surface temperatures s are among the coldest of the Holocene.

Yet another new study (Caron et al., 2019) shows today’s Arctic sea ice cover is still quite extensive when compared to the last several thousand years, when CO2 concentrations ranged between 260 and 270 ppm.

Image Source: Caron et al., 2019

Regional (northwest Greenland) sea surface temperatures were about 2°C warmer than at present for most of the last 6000 to 8000 years.

Image Source: Caron et al., 2019

Other new Arctic sea ice reconstructions from the north of Iceland (Harning et al., 2019) and Barents Sea (Berben et al., 2019) regions indicate a) modern sea ice extent has changed very little in the last several hundred years, or since the Little Ice Age, and b) the Early Holocene had millennial-scale periods of sea-ice-free and open water conditions, which is in stark contrast to “modern conditions” – the “highest value” or furthest extent of the sea ice record.

[T]he PBIP25 values [proxy for sea ice presence] reach their highest value (0.87) of the record at ca. 0 cal yr BP. An increase in PBIP25 suggests a further extension in sea ice cover, reflecting Arctic Front conditions (Müller et al., 2011), most similar to modern conditions.” (Berben et al., 2019)

Image Source: Harning et al., 2019

Image Source: Berben et al., 2019
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NOA, Solar Activity Suggest Early Winter For Europe… Outlook For October And November Colder Than Normal

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Latest runs by the US NOAA weather agency show October and November being colder than normal. A negative NAO and low solar activity may be behind it. 

September is coming to an end and signs of autumn are everywhere. On everyone’s mind now is the question of what kind of winter to expect: bitter cold and white, or wet and mild?

The US weather agency NOAA has just put out its outlook for October and November. Its CFSv2 model foresees colder than normal temperatures for both October and November, from eastern Canada to Russia and from Africa to the Arctic.

Hat-tip: Schneefan.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperature anomaly outlook for October, via Meteociel:

Chart: Meteociel CFSv2

Of course we need to be wary when it comes to the accuracy of these long-term forecasts. Yet, October is right ahead and forecasters should at least have a pretty good idea of how the month will end up. For the time being the weather outlook for first 14 days does look to be on the cool side. But beyond October 15, things do get far more speculative.

Here’s the NOAA CFSv2 for November:

Chart: Meteociel CFSv2

Above for November see that the cold anomalies are projected to spread across Europe, which would mean an early winter start over Europe.

NAO and solar activity

Other reasons why Europe’s coming winter may be a cold one are North Atlantic patterns and solar activity. Europe’s winters are largely dependent on the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Recently this index has swung to the negative mode. If this persists then, Europe likely will find itself shivering for awhile.

NAO currently negative. Chart: NOAA.

Looking at the NAO since 1950:

Chart: NOAA.

In the 1950s and 10960s, Europe experienced a number of harsh winters. Over the past 8 years, the NAO has been often very positive, meaning milder European winters, which has been the case for that period.

A number of studies have shown that the NAO tends to go negative in the wintertime during periods of low solar activity, which we are now experiencing. Read here, here and here.

Global warming causes both warm and cold!

But for the media and alarmists, if the NOAA projected temperature anomalies for the next two months had been projected to be warm, then manmade global warming would be to blame. And if the temperatures do in fact later come in below average, then that too will be because of global warming-induced weather pattern changes. Such is the “science” of global warming.

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Top German Politician Criticizes Climate Movement’s Gloominess, Anger… “Against Our Freedom-Based Lifestyle”

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Top politician Friedrich Merz of Angela Merkel’s CDU party told German daily Die Welt the climate movement “ultimately gets down to our freedom-based lifestyle”.

CDU’s Friedrich Merz. Image: https://www.friedrich-merz.de/

Reacting to the harsh criticism launched by the German Greens, the media and Fridays for Future who claim that the German government’s recent proposal to combat CO2 emissions doesn’t go far enough, Merz said: “The alternative would be an unprecedented deindustrialization of our country.”

He added: “Even the introduction of a CO2 tax would not have been enough, nor would a series of bans on everything from SUVs to meat and air travel.“

The reality is that Germany’s share of global greenhouse gas emissions is just too puny (<3%) to make any perceptible difference. So what is behind the draconian decarbonization drive?

Germany’s industry has been reeling from the attacks launched by radical environmentalists, the very industries that are at the heart of freedom. Merz Told Welt: “On the other hand, behind the vociferous criticism and the demands for radical solutions, much is hidden and there is not the desire for more environmental protection. One or the other of you is saying it quite openly: It’s about overcoming the system, about destroying our market economy.”

Criticism from Merkel, Macron

So vocal and aggressive have the green radicals have become that even some of the world’s most high profile proponents of climate protection proponents have grown wary of the radical greens.

Recently the online Epoch Times reported on the reactions from European leaders:

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel distanced themselves from Thunberg over her speech to the United Nations and a legal complaint Thunberg filed that accuses France and Germany, among other nations, of a lack of action on climate change. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison faulted Thunberg for subjecting Australian children to “needless anxiety.”

“They’ve got enough things to be anxious about,” Morrison said of his own daughters. “We’ve got to let kids be kids. We can’t have them growing up as mushrooms, but we’ve got to get a bit of context into this.”

Macron criticized Thunberg for taking a radical and antagonistic position. “All the movements among our youth, or the less young, are useful,” Macron told French broadcaster Europe 1. “But now they must concentrate on the people who are further away, those who are trying to block [sustainable initiatives]. These radical positions will naturally antagonize our societies.”

“French Ecology Minister Brune Poirson also criticized Thunberg for creating divisions that may prove irreparable,” The Epoch times wrote.

“I do not believe that we can mobilize the population with despair, with almost hatred, setting people against one another,” Poirson told Radio France. “It’s important, she mobilizes. But what are the solutions she puts on the table? I do not know.”

Merkel  took a subtler approach to criticize the teenage climate activist: “I would like to take the opportunity to strongly contradict her in one matter,” Merkel said, according to The Times of London. “She did not adequately address the way technology and innovation, especially in the energy sector but also in energy conservation, raise possibilities for reaching our goals.”

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Greta Thunberg’s “How Dare You!” Surges To No. 1 On Music Death Metal Charts!

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This is not meant to be mean-spirited, but rather I present this as humor. This brilliant parody was produced by John Meredith, a.k.a. John Mollusk.

We all love Greta as a child and wish her well.

Unfortunately Greta had been coaxed into giving a speech which was way over the top and totally lacked judgement in terms of tone. It seems she is being used as a relief valve for releasing other grownup people’s frothing anger.

It really is just a damn shame she’s been so ill-advised and abused by the adults who surround her. They really ought to know better and be far more responsible.

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Protesting Warmth? Greta’s Home, Sweden, Is 3°C COLDER Today Than Nearly All Of The Last 9000 Years

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Greta Thunberg lives in Sweden. According to peer-reviewed science, Sweden was at least 3°C warmer than it is today about 6000 to 9000 years ago, when CO2 concentrations lingered around 265 ppm. At 410 ppm CO2, 21st century Sweden is colder now than almost any time in the last 9000 years.

Image Source: Grudd, 2008

A Much Warmer Northern Hemisphere

During the Medieval Warm Period, wine vineyards flourished in Scandinavia and Russia at the same latitude (55°N) where polar bears roam today.

Image Source: Lamb, 1959

Earlier in the Holocene, when CO2 levels hovered around 260 ppm, vast forests extended all the way up to the coasts of the Arctic Ocean (Russia), suggesting temperatures were up to 7°C warmer than today (MacDonald et al., 2000).

Image Source: MacDonald et al., 2000

The limits of Arctic sea ice (north of Greenland) extended 1000 kilometers further north of where sea ice extends to today (2007), as Arctic Ocean temperatures were 2-4°C warmer about 8500 to 6000 years ago (Funder et al., 2011).

Image Source: Funder et al., 2011

Throughout the Northern Hemisphere (Austria, Canada, Iceland, Russia), summer air temperatures were about 3° to 5°C warmer than today between 10,000 and 8000 years ago, when CO2 values held steady at 260 ppm (Ilyashuk et al., 2011).

Image Source: Ilyashuk et al., 2011

Greta Thunberg’s Sweden: Colder As CO2 Rises

Sweden’s CO2 mitigation advocate Greta Thunberg. Image Source: Greta’s Twitter site

Greta Thunberg has been warning the world about the dangerous warming consequences of the modern rise in CO2 concentrations.

And yet despite CO2 levels rising from 260 ppm to 410 ppm since the Early Holocene, the country where she resides has continued to record nearly the coldest temperatures of the last 9000 years.

For example, permafrost that exists today in northern Sweden wasn’t present just a few hundred years ago, as the region was too warm to support permafrost until recent centuries (Sannel et al., 2018).

Image Source: Sannel et al., 2018

Tree trunk remains located 600 to 700 meters atop the limits of today’s barren mountain treelines (northern Sweden) date to the Early Holocene, suggesting (with the lapse rate) temperatures were 3-4°C  warmer than today from about 9000 to 6000 years ago (Kullman, 2018).

Image Source: Kullman, 2018

There are many proxy reconstructions that show modern Sweden’s temperatures are either the coldest or nearly the coldest of the last 9000 years. They also suggest most of the Holocene was 3°C to 4°C warmer than today for this region (Antonsson and Seppä, 2007Bigler e tal., 2002, Bigler et al., 2006Borzenkova et al., 2015, Grudd, 2008).

Image Source: Antonsson and Seppä, 2007

Image Source: Bigler e tal., 2002

Image Source: Bigler et al., 2006

Image Source: Borzenkova et al., 2015

Image Source: Grudd, 2008

Does Greta Know?

These scientific conclusions affirming a much warmer Northern Hemisphere and Sweden do not support the poplularized  position that climate change is a manifest consequence of a dangerous rise in CO2 emissions.

Greta Thunberg likely hasn’t been made aware of this science; it undermines the narrative the adults around her have been pushing.

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