Coldest Swedish December In 110 Years – Contradicts Recent “Detailed” Projections Of Warm Winters

Sweden’s English language The Local has the following headline today:

Coldest December in Sweden in 110 years

The last few days of the year look to be very cold throughout Sweden, according to a forecast by the Swedish meteorological agency SMHI.
This means that several parts of Sweden, including the southern region Götaland and eastern Svealand, will have experienced the coldest December in at least 110 years.”

Read the complete article here.

This reality of course flies in the face of what climate models had predicted earlier. The SMHI (Sweden’s Met Office and devout warmist organisation) keeps archives, and so I thought surely there must be something there that had earlier forecast warmer winters for Sweden. I didn’t have to look very long to find it.

First there’s this report dated 16 September 2010 here: New climate projections indicate more extreme weather. Here are just a couple of excerpts (Warning – you might first want to tie your butt to yourself to keep from laughing it off!):

New climate projections for severe weather situations in 100 years also show that truly cold days will virtually disappear.”

And:

The new scenarios show the effects of global warming with more details than before, thanks to more computer power and high geographical resolution.”

And:

‘As a whole, the new ensembles are an important foundation for continued climate research. However, they can already be applied to many areas,’ says Grigory Nikulin.”

Does he mean like governments preparing for winters? And finally:

Truly cold weather, such as -10°C in Spain or -30°C in southern Sweden, is unlikely to occur in future.”

How stupid must they feel now? The assertions made above likely stem in part from an SMHI-published report 2 years ago called: Temperature and precipitation changes in Sweden; a wide range of model-based projections for the 21st century.

The report analyzed the climate change signal for Sweden in scenarios for the 21st century in a large number of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), used in the AR4 by the IPCC.

At the SMHI Rossby Centre, regional climate models were run under different emission scenarios and driven by a few AOGCMs. They used the results of the runs as a basis in climate change in Sweden. What did they find? (Crap, of course, but read it for yourself):

Projected responses depend on season and geographical region. Largest signals are seen in winter and in northern Sweden, where the mean simulated temperature increase among the AOGCMs (and across the emissions scenarios B1, A1B and A2) is nearly 6°C by the end of the century, and precipitation increases by around 25%. In southern Sweden, corresponding values are around +4°C and +11%.

Okay, it’s still a long way to the end of the 21st century. But as Sweden’s 2010 December-of-the-century shows, the models and calculations seem to have forgotten a few important details. Back to the drawing board!

43 responses to “Coldest Swedish December In 110 Years – Contradicts Recent “Detailed” Projections Of Warm Winters”

  1. R. de Haan
    1. Casper
  2. R. de Haan

    Sweden even took an antique snow plough train from a museum and put it to work.
    This is an indication how well prepared the rail ways are!

    http://www.thelocal.se/31104/20101227/

  3. grayman

    Pierre thanks for the warning i should have did as you said. Models = GIGO, and they keep using them despite the worthless as a plug nickel things! p. corbyn uses a laptop for his projections and the AGW crowd keeps asking for more money for bigger, faster CRAP!

  4. DirkH

    I wonder how this works out now – BBC Oct 2010 –
    Sweden’s new luxury hotel high among the trees

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/fast_track/9130766.stm

  5. Ed Caryl

    Note how their projections are now for 100 years in the future, and not for this year. They can predict 100 years ahead, but not for 100 DAYs!!! What’s wrong with this picture? But it’s a safe prediction; none of them will be here for punishment in 100 years.

  6. R. de Haan

    They’re all idiots turning our world into an idiocracy thus creating the ideal circumstances to legally rob entire nations of their wealth and clean out the tax payer.

    We really have to do something about that ourselves.

    They can only rob us if we let them.

    Freedom is a precious asset and it’s lost much quicker than it’s gained.
    Unfortunately we are coping with a passive general public not willing to defend the rights previous generations fought and died for.

    That’s the biggest shame of all.

  7. Florida freeze | WOODTV.com Blogs

    [...] Weds. AM update:  The low temperature at the Orlando of 24 broke their daily record low by 10 degrees! It was 32 again all the way down to Marco Island and Homestead.  The coldest spot in central Florida was Plymouth at 15 degrees.  Other lows:  26 Daytona Beach, 25 Ft. Pierce.  Chicago made it to +9 this morning, much warmer on this side of Lake Michigan.   Havana, Cuba dropped to 46.   High temperatures today (Tue.):  Pensacola 50, Orlando 55, Key West 56, Havana Cuba 65 (2nd day in a row with highs only in the mid 60s at Havana, where every single day this month has been colder than average and they are 9.4 degrees cooler than normal).  Nassau in the Bahamas had their 2nd straight day with highs only in the 60s.  Orlando is 11.6 degrees colder than average for December.   ALSO – A devastating wildfire has burned 12,000 acres in central Florida.  They had to close I-95.  Also, it looks like parts of Sweden have seen their coldest December in 110 years. [...]

  8. R. de Haan

    The Globe cooled 0.56 Degree Celsius in only four days
    Pretty much all of 20th century global warming may have been erased within 4 days – the same time that Apollo 11 needed to get to the Moon, as correctly predicted by Jules Verne.
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/12/globe-cooled-by-056-c-in-four-days.html

  9. Casper

    “New climate projections for severe weather situations in 100 years also show that truly cold days will virtually disappear.”
    /sarc on
    We know the weather forecast ;)
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
    /sarc off

  10. R. de Haan

    Pierre, see Spaceweather.

  11. DirkH

    Rahmstorf keeps on trying to convince people that it’s warm somewhere else, but even the commenters on t-online won’t have anything of that.

    http://nachrichten.t-online.de/klimawandel-bleibt-fakt-trotz-kalter-winter/id_43874490/index

    1. DirkH

      He starts to remind me of this legendary sketch – the talking dog by Loriot. Herr Dr. Sommer brings a “talking” dog to an interview…
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGox3ggYK8w

    2. Casper
    3. Juraj V.

      There is such a joke:
      Woman comes suddenly home and finds her husband with another lady. Husband says: “And now, whom do you believe: me or your lousy eyes?”

  12. itsfaircomment

    A very good post from Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun (Australia)

    ‘I don’t think the warmists’ models are working’

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/i_dont_think_the_warmists_models_are_working/

    regards

  13. mmmmm

    global warming hoax collapses!!!!!

  14. Verity Jones

    December records are going to fall everywhere. The BBC was reporting today the misery in Northern Ireland and when I checked out the record at the Armagh Observatory which goes back to 1796 I could only find two colder months (unofficially of course until month end – but a ‘dead cert’ even if is stays mild for three days in the UK). Post coming up on it.

    1. Ed Caryl

      I read it. Great piece, Verity.
      We are right on the edge of the Warmist “scientists” switching to Coolist. It will be fascinating to watch.

  15. richcar1225

    From this website you can plot all of NASA’s instrumental temperature history in Europe for each station.
    http://www.rimfrost.no/
    It does not yet have December’s data posted but you can guess that the graphs will fall of a cliff. Great fun.

  16. Robin Datta

    It should be remembered that the present interglacial period has lasted about as long as past interglacial periods: if the cycle repeats itself, we may be headed towards another glaciation. This would be worse than a global warming to dinosaur – era conditions.

  17. richcar 1225

    Southern Europe should start to look very attractive to Northern Europeans when they start to grasp that the negative NAO may be around for another thirty years. In fact the baby boom retirees may have to move because they will not be able to afford to heat their homes. During the last negative NAO cold period from 1950 to 1980 the pre EU Europeans could not easily move. Someday the 1980 to 2010 period of positive NAO will be fondly remembered as the ‘good old days’. Buy Greek, Spain and Italian bonds while they are cheap.

    1. DirkH

      Sounds like a VERY daring anticyclical bet. Their economies will collapse faster than a Völkerwanderung can even get going.

      In other words: Wait til they collapse and then snatch assets.

  18. R. de Haan

    From Joe Bastardi:
    WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29
    CAN I BOTHER YOU FOR A MINUTE?

    First of all, watch closely, boys and girls, how the core of the worst cold the rest of the winter is southeast of where it has been. The thaw you see now in the northwest is not the end of winter, but the end of that part of the winter… more back and forth now for the UK and Ireland, which is fun and certainly not done, but the worst is over relative to averages. However, over the heart of the continent, you’ve seen bad, and you may again see just as bad (I don’t have the heart to say worse).

    I want to ask you a question. If you were in a fight and thought your opponent was finished then all of a sudden he hit you with some thundering shots, wouldn’t you at least think that the fight was not finished. At the least… okay? Common sense? Now even though I BELIEVE this is the start of the cooling over the next 20-30 years in a jagged fashion down, so we are back in the late 1970s according to satellite temps (again all the adjustment to temps being made by people is in the pre satellite era where they are free to do whatever they want with no current measuring crosscheck, which should also make you wonder), I am not willing to say, okay you guys are cooked. You know why? Because even…read more : http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

  19. richcar 1225

    “Say it aint so Joe”
    Yogi Berra

  20. R. de Haan
  21. R. de Haan

    Latest US News:

    Winter Storm-Blizzard Warnings in 17 States.
    http://www.iceagenow.com/Winter_storm-blizzard_warnings_in_17_states.htm

  22. DirkH

    Jo Nova has an in-depth article about Piers Corbyn

    http://joannenova.com.au/2010/12/another-test-of-the-bom-vs-corbyn/comment-page-1/#comment-164034

    with some interesting links; especially the videos found here are worthwhile watching – Piers gives a lecture.

    http://www.kane-tv.com/wa/youtube

    in which he explains that standard meteorology examines only the consequences of impulses from the sun; and that CO2 climate science is a failed theory – he doesn’t even care why exactly it’s wrong; he simply states that when their predictions do not work out, the theory is to be discarded.

  23. R. de Haan

    Snowfall records have been broken in New Jersey
    In many cases, records date back to 1893
    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43677/new-jersey-state-snowfall-reco-1.asp

    Cold records have been broken in Ireland too:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/29/december-cold-–-unprecedented/

    This is what Don Easterbrook posted:

    Don Easterbrook says:
    December 30, 2010 at 1:13 am
    It’s interesting to note that each of this records occurred during cool periods—coincidence?

    1.January 1814 -2.2°C [1790-1820 cool period]
    2.January 1881 -0.9C [1880-1915 cool period]
    3.December 2010 -0.2C [1999-? cool period]
    4.February 1855 0.0C, [1840-? cool period]
    January 1963 0.0C [1945-1977 cool period]
    5.February 1895 0.2C [1880-1915 cool period]
    6.February 1947 0.4C [1945-1977 cool period]
    7.January 1985 0.5C, [1945-1977 cool period]
    December 1878 0.5C [1880-1915 cool period]

    The list above also puts it in perspective with respect to other extreme years in living memory – most notably 1963 and 1947 [1945-1977 cool period]

    We’re cooling all right.

  24. R. de Haan
  25. R. de Haan

    Tom Chivers takes on Bastardi but fails miserably.
    Have as much as fun as I had reading the comments of Chivers BS story.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tomchivers/100050213/joe-bastardi-has-a-wonderful-name-but-hes-still-wrong-about-global-warming/

    1. Ed Caryl

      He really has a fixation on Joe’s last name, doesn’t he?!!

  26. R. de Haan

    At least one Met Office employee has looked out of the window this month:

    Clever boy!
    http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/clever-boy.html

  27. R. de Haan

    In Germany frost damage to roads will cost a staggering 25 billion to repair.

  28. R. de Haan
  29. R. de Haan

    Joe Bastardi’s OPEN LETTER to Tom Chivers:
    AN OPEN LETTER TO MY FRIEND TOM CHITTERS, OF THE DAILY TELEGRAPH

    Dear Tom,

    Hi, my name is Joe Bastardi. What a wonderful name you have.. Chitters not to be confused with chatters, which is what many in your nation have been doing as forecasts by people like me come true… forecasts that were made a few years ago since we do understand which way the climate is going.

    And by the way, Tom, I don’t need attention. I need to hit forecasts. That is how I get paid. Where I work and what I do, I don’t get paid unless I am accurate. Clients quit. I can see by your portrayal of me it doesn’t work that way there, since you did not bother to interview me, or anyone that knows me personally for that matter, to see exactly what I am about. Why doesn’t that surprise me?

    The simple fact is this. I have a forecast NOT FOR AN ICE AGE, but for a global cooldown measured by objective satellite temps that cannot be “readjusted”, to levels that we were in the 1970s, when the last cold cycle of the Pacific ended. You see, Tom, we have been in a warm cycle of that ocean since the late 1970s, the Atlantic since the 1990s. The Pacific has switched to cold, and the Atlantic will soon. Now follow along here… what do you think happens to the Earth’s temps when the largest bodies of water warm? That’s right; the Earth should warm. Now what do you think should happen when they cool? The Earth should cool. If it doesn’t, you win. If it does, I am right. You value competition, don’t you?. What is frightfully ignorant about your piece is that you apparently don’t even know I have not just crawled out of the woodwork but have been the subject of attacks for several years now from those that are like you (again, you and I share a wonderful name). Welcome to the world of Bastardi Bashing… and you are late to the party.

    For all of you that read me, you should understand this. This is a forecast to me. I have been on the record for a few years saying this is on the way. There are physical reasons for why this should happen, large physical reasons. I happen to like the oceanic cycles best. Piers Corbyn (I guess Tom can’t have as much fun with his name) likes the sun and is more extreme than I am as far as the cooling; I only believe a natural reversal to levels back in the 1970s… but his main idea is the second leg of the the triple crown of cooling and involves the sun… the third leg, volcanoes (no, not the icelandic one we had but arctic and equatorial), is a wild card.

    I had that on national TV here in the states three years ago, saying things like this would start. Why would I back down now, when the ideas are showing up. You are right; this is not the proof. It is, however, the sign that I have a point about where this may be going. People now coming out AFTER THE FACT and saying this is why, well where were they before?

    In a way, your probing article into someone you don’t know, never met, never talked to (perhaps you can talk to Paul Hudson, the BBC climatologist, about me, he knows me and will let you know what I am about) proves a point I am trying to make about all this global warming… oops, I mean climate change… oops, I mean climate disruption.. that there is nothing new under the sun. In the world of weather and climate, the back and forth that has gone on for time eternal continues. In your case, a journalist who simply writes an attack piece without even bothering to talk to the person about it.

    And again… you are late to the party. The attention you talk about has been heaped upon me long before you discovered my wonderful name.

    By the way, it used to be Smith, but I changed it to get attention.

    Cheers! JB

  30. R. de Haan

    Big Arctic Outbreak expected from January 15th.
    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43765/severe-arctic-outbreak-forecas.asp

    (The forecast is for the USA but I’m sure we will get a similar blast here in Western Europe.

  31. NTZ December Wrap-Up

    [...] December 18: And what would December 2010 be without all the news of the cold and snow that was supposed to be rare in Europe. Read here and here. [...]