I wasn’t really following this get-together in Lisbon, but Der Spiegel has just come out with a report about the subject tilted: The Climate War Can Continue, and there are a few interesting points. You could call it the German view. Of course, Der Spiegel used the opportunity to take some cheap shots at the sceptics – calling them conspiracy theorists and grumblers. But nothing we aren’t used to.
Yet, at least Der Spiegel admits that there are indeed “alarmists” on the other side, and that there is no consensus. So the real story here is that the sceptics are presented as a force equal to the warmists, and that it is not 98 – 2.
The fronts are deeply entrenched, pouring oil into the fire
The goal of the conference was to get both sides to take a step or two towards reconciliation. But as Der Spiegel writes, the prospects of that happening are very slim. Some participants in Lisbon even poured more oil into the already hot fire. Der Spiegel quotes Jerome Ravetz:
The fronts in climate research are fully entrenched, says Ravetz’s diagnosis. The result is a huge credibility problem.'”
Some examples of oil in the fire, quoting Hans von Storch:
‘The sceptic side is comprised of everything from academics to confused grumblers.’ “
That didn’t go over too well with some sceptics. I don’t know if von Storch is the right guy to say such things, as he’s been doing his share of grumbling himself. Der Spiegel also wrote how comments by Steve McInytre also provoked the warmists, Spiegel provides quotes by McIntyre:
“Climate scientists have to be obligated, just like investment bankers, to make the information that support their projections public.’ “
Or else face sanctions:
‘The managers of Enron didn’t go to prison because they blew billions of dollars, but because they deceived investors by withholding information.’ “
Judith Curry on models and consensus:
‘The uncertainties in models are completely inadequately researched, and the established research is trying to hide this from the public.’ “
So the complaints, or provocations as Der Spiegel calls them, continue to be the same: the hiding of data and the inadequacy of models.
Gavin Schmidt chickens out
On Gavin Schmidt, Der Spiegel wtites: “He was invited but he declined to show up, which was probably because Steve McIntyre said he would attend.” Der Spiegel then focused in on McIntyre, recognising his important role in the climate debate and mentions his Climateaudit.org blog and how he found errors in Mann’s hockey stick. Der Spiegel took no cheap shots at McIntyre.
Von Storch on public opinion and ignoring sceptics
As sceptics have known for a long time that opinion and the science is all moving to the state of non-alarmism. Hans von Storch is quoted by Der Spiegel:
‘As knowledge increases, the percentage of people who believe that change is dangerous gets smaller.'”
And of course, the warmists and the alarmists would like nothing better than for the sceptics to go away. Or at least that they be ignored. Hans von Storch had the following to say about that strategy:
We simply cannot ignore the sceptics and think they will eventually go away. We have to discuss with them.’ “
Conference is sponsored by the EU
I wasn’t aware of this, but according to Der Spiegel, the Climate Debate Reconcilaition Conference was also sponsored by the European Commission, which has the official target of limiting global warming to 2°C, an endeavour that has been a favourite target of attack among sceptics.
In conclusion, the two sides were unable to agree on a mutual statement. And so the warmists will continue hoping that the sceptics will go away, or at least be ignored. Unfortunately for the warmists, the sceptics are going to do just the opposite, as surveys have shown. More and more are going to come, and they are going to get a lot louder. So much so that it will be impossible to ignore them.