More big news!
If there’s a growing consensus about anything, it is that the man-made climate catastrophe is not going to happen, and that the scientists who believe to the contrary are becoming an ever increasingly obscure, fringe minority. Call them the natural-cause denialists.
Maybe many scientists are starting to feel that blaming everything on CO2 and neglecting the powerful sun, oceans and soot, among other factors, was a pretty stupid thing to do after all.
So it should not be a surprise that 2 more leading warmist German climate scientists Prof. Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences and Prof. Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have come out and conceded in newspaper interviews in the recent days that natural factors do have significant impacts on climate.
Latif says that half of the 0.8°C of global warming we’ve seen since 1850 is due to natural causes. Marotzke says that ocean cycles stopped the warming over the last 12 years.
At the “Die kälte Sonne” website, which was set up to counter false attacks on the book’s science, authors Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt direct our attention to the story and write as follows (reproduced with permission):
In an interview on February 9, 2012, with the Austrian daily Die Presse, renowned climate scientist Prof. Mojib Latif confirmed 2 fundamental assumptions made in the book “Die kalte Sonne”. Latif thus openly agrees with the view of authors Vahrenholt and Lüning that natural climate factors are responsible for about half of the 0.8°C of warming since the start of industrialization in 1850. A similar 50/50 ratio of anthropogenic vs natural climate drivers is also assumed by Professor Nicola Scafetta of Duke University in North Carolina (see page 135 in the book) as well as by physicist Prof. Nir Shaviv of Jerusalem (see page 86) in their models.
Here Latif is clearly positioning himself in contradiction to the claims made by the IPCC, which pegged the natural climate factors as having an influence of only single digit percentages. The all important magnitude of the so-called radiative forcings are for CO2 (1.66 W/m²) and the sun (0.12 W/m²), and are thus worlds apart.
Moreover, Latif confirmed in the interview that the stop in global warming over the last 12 years was caused by ocean cycles. Authors Vahrenholt and Lüning have the very same opinion in their book. Anything else would be surprising as the book itself is in part based on Latif’s work. Interestingly, even climate scientist Prof. Jochem Marotzke of the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg said in an interview yesterday with the TAZ daily that ocean cycles were the main reason for the stopped global warming since the year 2000. Thus the darling aerosol joker used by the IPCC is stripped of it’s importance.
Now that the first knee-jerk reactions to the book within the German climate science community are just about behind us, a real detailed look at the scientific content of the book “Die kalte Sonne” is beginning. Here it will hopefully become rapidly clear that the book offers a realistic interpretation that is supported by the results of numerous peer-reviewed scientific papers.”
Very profound admissions. So natural factors sun and oceans are real factors – aerosols are stripped of their importance. Conclusion: CO2 is disappearing as a major climate factor with every passing day – making the IPCC models obselete!
It needs to be pointed out that Jochem Marotzke less than 5 years ago warned: “There’s not much time remaining!” Now today he says the ocean cycles (unexpectedly) have given us 12 extra years, thus conceding they indeed do have major impacts on the climate after all. Yes, he seems to be learning something.
And simple logic tells us that if these ocean cycles have had an impact over the last 12 years, then it must also be conceded that the negative phases of the PDO and AMO will also continue to have an impact in the decades ahead. Anything else is just not serious.
Of course Latif and Marotzke may try to deny or underplay their latest admissions, which they probably do not even realise they have made. But their words are on the record for everybody to see. Read them yourselves!