It wasn’t all that long ago when a number of climate scientists were projecting the Earth would soon fall into an almost permanent, increasing El Niño mode, where the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific would always be like what we saw in 1998 – all man-made.
Sea surface temperature chart September 2011. Source: NASA.
Today a number of German-language papers are reporting that Norwegian scientist Tore Furevik of the Bjerknes Centre of the University of Bergen says he expects the opposite to happen at least this year. Furevik says that La Niña may come back for third straight year. “The situation is simlar to the previous year,” he says.
Die Welt here writes that “there are no signs that La Nina is going to disappear anytime soon” and that according to Norwegian experts “it will occur even more strongly than in 2011”.
The Wiener Zeitung of Vienna, Austria adds:
The La Niña phenomena has been persisting since 2010 and there are no signs of it going away. We had this strong cooling in 2010 and instead of getting warmer, we stayed in a long cold phase’, said Furevik. “And it appears as if an even stronger La Niña will occur.'”
Furevik’s La Niña forecast contradicts the experts’ forecast, where an ensemble of models show the trend towards an El Niño for the 2nd half of the year:
Since about 2005 the PDO phase has gone negative and is projected to stay that way for another 15-25 years – meaning cooler global temperatures.
If Furevik is right, it means that 2012 and the first half of 2013 will end up being cold. That’s bad news for those betting the Earth will warm further this decade. That means that the first quarter of the 2010s decade will be much cooler than the average of the last decade.
Negative PDO favors more frequent occurrence of cooling La Niñas. Source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/. The overall 60-year cycle shows we are now at the start of a cool phase.
Viva La Nina!
After the first La Niña those models predicted a return to El Niño conditions; but a second La Niña came instead. Now they predict a return to El Niño again… I don’t know anything about these models but probably they are tuned to the conditions of the last 30 years as we have no older satellite observations to compare their runs with.
I think they will fail again, and we’ll see another La Niña. The step change upward caused by the 1998 El Niño will be reversed.
I doubt a return to a strong El Niño until the sun becomes more active.
It look like the “oscillation” isn’t a regular bouncing around – a “free resonance” but a well damped spring to which the sun applies a variable force through the variable (cosmic-ray but but somewhat sun-modulated) filter of the clouds.
There _could_ be 30 to 35 years of predominately La Niña, just like there were 30 years of predominately El Niño.
60 years ago, today;
Sgt. Nina taught her band to play;
…
😉
NINA? OMG! Sauve qui peut!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7fFb6GKbxY
There is no downwelling of atmospheric CO2 heat into the oceans surface and no downwelling of that ‘surface’ heat into the ocean depths. There ocean is warmed and cooled from below by variable Earth fission. This fission creates daughter atoms with the rement protons and neutrons called ‘elemental’ atoms which are then forced into ‘elemental’ molecules and ‘elemental’ compounds. We are standing on 259 trillion cubic miles of mostly molten rock with 310 million cubic miles of ocean heated by a 6,000 K hot Sun and variable internal fission. This system in uneffected by 28 gigatons of human CO2. It is past time for the “Super-sized Chicken Little & Falling Sky Trick” to end.
Let the record show I respectfully disagree with this as the La Nina shall fade and reverse to an el nino. I respect the forecaster but feel that a glorified Kelvin Flop.. in other words a natural reaction to the cool is to fight back a bit and warm is on the way. Low solar activity is also an invitation to an el nino, much like when we see ash over the tropics in a volcano. This is simply part of the cycle in a cold pdo where back and forth swings occur and with the cold events winning out 2 to 1 and even the warm events only blunting the cold pdo for a time. So I am NOT in agreement with this. Keep in mind last year I loudly said in May the La nina was not done as it did not fit with the overall pattern.
As a side note, we have to make sure we dont Hansenize the evolving cold, in other words, look for more la nina the same way hansen keeps screaming el nino is coming ( A Hansen super nino watch is already in effect for when he gets out of jail ( if he is in) and see that a nino could come on). There is a natural ebb and flow of the cycles in the downturn and an upturn. I understand the nina of the mid 1950s was a 3 year event, but so was the one in the mid 70s which was followed by the great climatic shift. The common denominator in warm and cold events is that they are part of the thermostat that nature has to drive the climate not co2 which because of its properties and small amounts, can not have any effect on the climate.
So I respectfully disagree with a continuing nina