Fritz Vahrenholt’s and Sebastian Lüning’s Die kalte Sonne website brings up another study that shows the sun plays a significant role in climate development.
How many more of these are we going to need? I don’t know why there are still people out there who deny what ought to be obvious.
New Norwegian studies: A significant part of climate warming of the last 150 years is caused by the sun
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt (translated by P Gosselin with permission)
Three Norwegian scientists, led by astrophysicist Jan-Erik Solheim of Oslo, have taken a close look at the interaction between the temperature development on Earth and solar activity in the past. The scientists investigated the length of individual Schwabe solar sunspot cycles since 1850 until today and found a systematic correlation with the annual mean temperature of the subsequent cycle.
Here the scientists analyzed temperature data from Norway, Spitzbergen and other North European weather stations. Normally a sunspot cycle is about 11 years on average. If the cycle is longer, then it is a sign for a solar activity slumber. Solheim and his colleagues Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum have now been able to determine that the temperature lowered after a long and weak solar cycle. The temperature rose accordingly after a short and intense cycle. This points to a time delay of about 1 decade between the heat impact of the sun and the climatic reaction on Earth.
The length of individual Schwabe sunspot cycles correlates well with the annual mean temperature of the subsequent cycle (see diagram middle right). Example Tromsoe, from Solheim et al. (2011a).
Because the last Solar Cycle No. 23 was significantly longer (see p. 299-302, “Die kalte Sonne”) and by looking at the empirically obtained interrelation, the scientists expect an imminent cooling at Spitzbergen of several degrees Celsius (Solheim et al. 2011b). On a Norwegian and global scale, that could translate to up to 1°C (Solheim et al. 2011a, 2012). Moreover, using their correlation data, the Norwegian scientists estimate that about half of the warming since 1850 was caused by the sun.
In a parallel study, the Norwegian trio investigated the temperature history of the last 4000 years using the Greenland GISP ice core. Here the scientists found a characteristic temperature cycle with a period of about 1000 years. In the Greenland temperature curve it is plain to see the Minoic Warm Phase (3000 years ago), the Roman Warm Phase (2000 years ago), and the Medieval Warm Phase (1000 years ago) and today’s Modern Warm Phase. Cold periods occurred between these warm phases, with temperatures dropping more than 1°C. According to Humlum et al. (2011) the logical continuation of this natural cycle indicates that a large part of the 20th century warming is due to natural climate mechanisms (assumed to be foremost the sun).
- Solheim et al. (eingereicht 2011a): Temperature prognosis based on long sunspot cycle 23.
- Solheim et al. (2011b): Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures. Advances in Meteorology, Band 2011, Artikel ID: 543146.
- Solheim et al. (eingereicht 2012): The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24
- Humlum et al. (2011): Identifying natural contributions to late Holocene climate change. Global and Planetary Change, Band 79, S. 145-156.