A new paper authored by Reinhard Böhm of the Austrian Central Administration For Meteorology (ZAMG) refutes the notion that anthropogenic warming is causing an increase of climate extremes and making weather more variable and extreme.
Pressure – temperature – precipitation (Source ZAMG)
The paper uses the monthly resolved data of the HISTALP data collection, which provides 58 single series for three climate elements: air pressure, air temperature and precipitation, which start earlier than 1831 and extend back to 1760 in some cases.
The paper’s abstract writes:
The main goal is the analysis of trends or changes of high frequent interannual and interseasonal variability. In other words, it is features like extremely hot summers, very cold winters, excessively dry or wet seasons which the study aims at.”
The paper also concentrates on the recent three decades because “they are the first 30 years with dominating anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing”.
Conclusion? No change!
The author of the warmist ZAMG doesn’t mince his words:
We can show that also this recent anthropogenic normal period shows no widening of the PDF (probability density function) compared to the preceding ones.”
Not only did the author find no change in variability, but he also detected a “centennial oscillating structure”.
The abstract continues (emphasis added):
It shows that interannual variability changes show a clear centennial oscillating structure for all three climate elements in the region. For the time being we have no explanation for this empirical evidence.”
Please allow me to suggest one: take a look at the sun! As it stands, only an absolute moron can now remain oblivious to the huge, growing body of evidence pointing to solar activity cycles.
Böhm continues, reluctantly admitting there may be other mysterious factors out there playing a role:
We argue that it should not be an artifact of any remaining data problems, but of course a centennial cyclic effect based on 250 years of data only is not really well consolidated in terms of sample length. But it is at least an interesting new feature and the subject is open for scientific discussion and for further studies dealing with circulation effects, long-term memories in the oceans etc.”
Hooray! It seems they are beginning to acknowledge the oceans as a possible factor in climate change! Thus there’s hope that one day they’ll realize the sun may be involved as well.
Finally, CO2 Handel here writes:
Neither during the last 250 years nor the last 30 years, which have been strongly impacted by man, has the seasonal and annual fluctuation range hot-cold and dry-wet become greater.”
‘The results are certainly surprising for many,’ explains climatologist and study-author Reinhard Böhm. We often hear there are no longer any transitions between seasons and that spring and autumn, as well as winter and summer, are increasingly characterized by extreme cold-warm fluctuations. ‘Our study clearly shows that this is not the case.'”
That is quite an admission for an author from a warmist outfit like the ZAMG.