Climate Science Humiliated…Earlier Model Prognoses Of Warmer Winters Now Today’s Laughingstocks

Palm trees[Sticky post for a couple more days…scroll down for new articles]

by P. Gosselin, and NTZ reader Jimbo

“The Earth has a fever,” we were told. “The science is settled and the debate is over. Scientists are unanimous – 97% of them agree: climate change is real, and is happening now, and we’ve got to act quickly.”

Over more than two decades we were told again and again that everywhere was warming faster than everywhere else – especially winters were warming up quickly. Snow was becoming a thing of the past and children soon weren’t going to know what it is.  “The warm winters that we are seeing are just a harbinger of what’s to come,” the media declared just a couple of years ago. The scientists were cock-sure.

Today we are finding that precisely the exact opposite is happening. Winters in Europe have turned colder and more severe. Central Europe has seen its 5th consecutive colder than normal winter in a row – a record since measurements began in the 19th century.

Climate scientists first reacted by claiming, “One winter does not make a trend“. Then they said that the cold winters were a local phenomenon. Finally they were forced to recently claim, “Cold winters now fit the picture of global warming!”

List of failed predictions

What follows are dozens of predictions for warmer winters made not long ago during the 2000s, many by leading scientists. What started as a simple Google search, turned into a list of false winter predictions for Central Europe, particularly Germany. By sheer coincidence reader Jimbo sent over his own list of false wintertime predictions made by “experts” in the US and Great Britain. I’ve combined the two lists and present one long list to you. Of course we still have to wait (90 years in some cases) to see how some of the predictions inevitably turn out, but current trends do not bode well for them.

Unfortunately, many of these predictions were passed on as reliable predictions to various sectors of industry, so that they could prepare for the new future that awaited. Many of these industries, like tourism, skiing, agriculture, highway maintenance, etc. based their investment decisions in part on these forecasts. As we now know, they turned out to be false – completely false – and the costs will be billions. Readers are welcome to suggest other false wintertime predictions, which we will gladly add to the list.

Failed winter climate predictions

(The first 33 concern mostly Germany and Central Europe)

1. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.”
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam
, 8 Feb 2006


2. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, 10 Jan 2010.


3. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter“ … “Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning. … Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most … there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east. …In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 2 Sept 2008.


4. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.“
Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 2 March 2007


5. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.


6. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”
Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.


7. “The more than ‘unusually‘ warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C'”
Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007


8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”
Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 2010

9. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”
Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010


10. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”
Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000


11. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”
Spiegel, 1 April 2000


12. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60 percent of the species could die off by 2080.”

3Sat, 26 June 2003


13. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”
IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)


14. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”
Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007


15. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”


” The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”
Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002


16. “Yesterday’s snow … Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often then it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many skilifts this means the end of business.”
Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006


17. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”
Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010


18. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.” Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007


19. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist Müller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”
Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007


20. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Maountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”
FOCUS, 24 May 2006


21. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder + shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”
Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007


22. “Winters: wet + mild”
Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007


23. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”
Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009


24. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”
Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004


25. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”.
Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006


26. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”
Hartmut Graßl, Director Emeritus, Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006


27. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”
Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006


28. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/Januar 2013.


29. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5 C to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.
German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010


30. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.“
Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001


31. “The scenarios of climate scientitsts are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”
Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010


32. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.“ FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.


33. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.“
State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.


34. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model …
Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”

Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999


35. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000


36. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”
BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004


37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”
Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999


38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”
Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000


39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”
Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005


40. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”
Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000


41. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”
IPCC Climate Change, 2001


42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”
IPCC Climate Change,  2001


43. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”
IPCC Climate Change, 2007


44. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”
WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007


45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007


46. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008



Oh, just one more:

47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…
Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007


New entries, thanks to readers!

48. (h/t Paul M) “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”
Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007


49. ” If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”
Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009


50. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”
Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009


51. (h/t: John Shade) “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”
BBC News, 20 Dec 2004
[BBC 2013: “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]


52. (h/t: AngusPangus) “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.


53. (h/t: trustyetverify) “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and

“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004


54. (h/t: mobihci) “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’ he said.
NASA GISS, 2 June 1999


 55. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps. […] especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”
Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005


 56. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”
Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005


57. (h/t: ab) “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”
Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008


58. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”
Guardian, 14 February 2004
[4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]


59. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004


60. For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”
Spiegel, 3 June 2006
[The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]


Readers are welcome to add to the list of false winter predictions!

Photo credit: Free On Line Photos (source).

61 thoughts on “Climate Science Humiliated…Earlier Model Prognoses Of Warmer Winters Now Today’s Laughingstocks”

  1. Agree well done. Remember to save all these articles less they disappear. It is so maddening to read articles today by these same scammers saying increasing snow, cold, ice is all consistent with their projections and models. LOL

  2. I won’t be satisifed until I see such lists, and such consensus-debunking studies, throughout the mainstream media. And firings, and prosecutions. And a general scientific consensus that climate science is a complete failure, aided and abetted by a tyrannical and insane political agenda.

  3. A most excellent list of ‘Vinerisms’ thanks for the lolz Mr Gosselin!
    [‘Vinerisms’ – what a lovely term! -PG]

    1. Thanks Ed…these are just a few predictions for warmer winters Jimbo and I randomly picked out. In all there are hundreds, if not thousands, out there, predictions by scientists who were cock-sure and we were told not to doubt them, lest we be branded a flat-earther, or “denier”. How cocksure do they feel today?

      1. I am so glad this list is up. It puts many of their formally confident statements into one place. As you say there must be hundreds if not thousands of such nonsense. I want to see them here slamming us deniers and deny they said those things. Zzzzzzzzzz. 😉

    1. So you’re saying Trenberth made a correct prediction because some days in winter were mild? That’s a pretty low yardstick. It’s like saying all we need is wind turbines because sometimes they’re actually turning. But I guess that’s good enough. For government work.

      1. If only gov would legislate that they could only use wind power for their electrical needs, then they’d have less time to make so many stupid decisions and do so much damage to society!

  4. Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe

    Reuters, Nov 09, 2012

    FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.

    “The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe,

    [He completely missed the barn on that one! This is more a weather forecast, though, so I’ll have to pass up on it. -PG]

  5. reposted from my comment at Bishop Hill:

    “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first “conclusive proof” that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday”

    Grauniad, 26 August 2006.

    How’s that sciencey thing working out for you then? Gotta love the “conclusive proof”!!
    [Added – thanks -PG]

  6. Today is such a special day here in Western Australia,

    The highest maximum recorded temperature in April exceeded the highest maximum in the previous March. But don’t be alarmed. It’s happened before; 77 years ago.

    It was a much worse climate yesterday, having to endure the release of the latest report from Australia’s Climate Commission. The Kommissars; Tim Jung Flannery and Will el Steffen were playing the full theatre typical of desparation, regurgitating stuff that they might believe, but is even at loggerheads with the IPCC’s latest reports, including draft AR5. The tame-stream media repeated without question.

    It’s not like Flannery’s predictions haven’t been consistently wrong over the past 20 years. He receives $180,000 a year for the part-time position.

    The Climate Commission, etc are all set to be closed following September’s election. Of the potential sacking of Flannery, current opposition leader and nominal leader of the next federal government Tony Abbott said

    “It does sound like an unnecessary position given the gentlemen in question gives us the benefit of his views without needing taxpayer funding.”

  7. Many thanks, PG, a very useful resource for those of us who occasionally meet one of the terminally gullible.

  8. Some predictions from Belgium (translated from Dutch):

    “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p19)

    “…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)

    Impact of the climate change in Belgium
    Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace

    [Thanks Belgium – added – PG]

  9. The Greenpeace report “Impacts of climate change in Belgium” is available in an abbreviated version in English:

    “Cold winters would gradually disappear.” (p. 4)

    “In Belgium, snow on the ground could become increasingly rare but there would be plenty of grey sky and rain in winter..” (p. 6)

    Impacts of climate change in Belgium
    Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004
    Climate scientist van Ypersele is Vice Chair of the IPCC.

  10. There was a time in history when Leaders and Leechers used to consult with ‘Astrologists’ to make their ‘Best Move’.
    It seems they now consult ‘ClimAstrologists’.
    Maybe some ‘Witty’ person could ‘Draw Up’ a ‘Climastrologist Chart’ just for fun.

  11. I live in South East Queensland – our average temperature is already several degrees above the global average.

    While I find the heat uncomfortable some times and certainly wouldn’t like it get hotter our climate should hold no fear for Europeans.

    Outside of the loss of snow it really is agreeable to the many ex-pat UK local residents – all of whom state they’d never go back.

    Besides the greenhouse effect still remains an unproven hypothesis nearly 150 years after its birth and is likely to remain unproven – if not discredited completely.

    I suspect, though, to quiet the alarmism would require glaciers advancing to the mid latitudes.

    Who knows – if the interglacial is ending it may happen.

  12. The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C’”
    Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007

    Shouldn’t even Die Zeit have noticed that this would add up to almost 20 C in 2100 ?

    1. To Die Zeit’s credit, even they wrote in the next sentence that Müller’s claim was ridiculous.

  13. “Rhineland-Palatinate, as central Europe entirely, will be affected by higher heating rate than the average, and the winter with snow will increasingly disappear more and more. ….. (Hartmut Grassl, 2008);
    Interviewer: Trierischen Volksfreund 20.11.08

    ____Hartmut Graßl: Rheinland-Pfalz wird wie Mitteleuropa insgesamt von höheren Erwärmungsraten getroffen als im Durchschnitt, und der Winter mit Schnee wird sich immer stärker verabschieden. …..
    [Another glittering jewel – thanks! -PG]

  14. Here is Dr. Viner again. 😉
    14 February 2004
    “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry,” said David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. “It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”

    3 December 2003
    The Unep research was presented at a world conference on sport and the environment in Turin. Rolf Burki and his colleagues at the University of Zurich warned the delegates: “Climate change will have the effect of pushing more and more winter sports higher and higher up mountains,…..

    26 April 2002
    Hans Elsasser*, Rolf Bürki
    The lack of snow at the end of the 1980s left a lasting imprint on the tourism industry. If the assumptions of the impacts of climate change hold true, snow cover in the Swiss Alps will diminish, and this will, in turn, jeopardise the tourism industry. 85% of Switzerland’s current ski resorts can be designated as snow-reliable.

  15. 4 September 2002
    British seasons start to shift
    In the future, snowdrops will be out in January, primroses in February, mayflowers and lilac in April and wild roses in May, the ponds will be full of tadpoles in March and a month later even the oaks will be in full leaf.

    If that isn’t enough, autumn probably won’t begin until October.

    The seasons are becoming muddled, according to the Woodland Trust,…….

    “The work on climate change shows years like 2002 will become typical and years like 2001 will become extinct.”

  16. The construction projects for the offshore windfarms in the North Sea & the Baltic are in a COMPLETE shambles. Main constructors EON and RWE are delaying, scaling down, postponing, limiting it “to 1 wind farm at time”… (in other words: pulling out):

    The short version, in German:
    “Die Energiewende ist endgültig gescheitert” (The transformation has failed for good)

    1. Very interesting. RWE and EON are both near 5 year lows, both trading at a third of their value 5 years ago; while the DAX has gained 13 % in these 5 years.

      This is the end.

      Doubtlessly the Greens are happy. They always wanted to destroy the big energy providers. And this destruction happens under the CDU, what could be a sweeter victory for a Green.

    2. The reason for failure is clear; they are running out of other people’s money.

      May as well paste a copy of my “5-cent” translation of the DWN article here…

      Chancelloress Merkel is losing the support of corporations in th energy transition. EON and RWE are reducing investment in renewables because they cannot afford the debts produced by the transition.

      Bloomberg reports that EON and RWE have to reduce their debts by about 69 billion Euros. New investments in renewables have been cancelled. The reform of the energy sector has thereby been stalled,

      Energy policy is gaining urgent attention with September’s election fast approaching; with cost increases and the installation of new wind turbines causing problems. “The difficulties of connecting offshore facilities to the power grid reduces their profitability,” and make the original calculations obsolete, says Marc Nettelberg, an analyst at DZ Bank AG. “The energy transition could fail due to that.”

      [German consumer agencies have already warned against investing in offshore wind.]

      Expenditure cuts at both RWE and EON are mainly at the expense of offshore wind power. But those are pivotal to replacing Germany’s nuclear power generation capacity by 2022 with “clean energy” systems. Disconnection of the oldest eight nuclear power plants reduced the market value of the companies by 25 billion Euros. The energy companies are trying to offset those losses by increasing the price of electricity.

      EON had to sell assets worth 18 billion Euros and RWE is preparing to sell its oil and gas subsidiary DEA. “The debt situation simply prohibits any larger investments” said Daniel Seidenspinner, an analyst at B. Metzler Seel Sohn & Co. KGaA. EON have since made better provisions, investing abroad.

      [notes in square braces are mine]

      DWN has a fresh article on proposals for allowing the poor to cope with rising energy prices; by introducing pre-paid electricity meters.
      Michael Kopatz of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy “explains” that the free installation of a pre-paid meter will prevent those who cannot afford their electricity bills from slipping further into debt and it increases their energy awareness. He claims that it increases cost transparency and reduced consumption.
      (Press Release confirms)

      It appears that Dr Kopatz has no qualifications or education in Engineering, or hard science. A social scientist with focus on “the environment”.

      1. Duh! Yes, you are correct! Just the other day I had to check hippo plural just to be sure. 😉

  17. I appreciate that you can only select so many from those you have collected to print here, but can I suggest that you put the lot unredacted, in a pdf and leave in an archive for data miners?

  18. I’m not sure what the prediction was but:

    “Researchers find corals in Northern Australia healed themselves in just 12 years.”

    “What surprises scientists, though, is that the reef regenerated by itself […]”

    1. I don’t understand why the scientists were so surprised. The following paper shows a bleached coral area that made dramatic recover in 1 year!

      “These mechanisms of ecological recovery included rapid regeneration rates of remnant coral tissue, very high competitive ability of the corals allowing them to out-compete the seaweed, a natural seasonal decline in the particular species of dominant seaweed, and an effective marine protected area system.”

  19. Currently happening: The 3rd Waldklimakonferenz of Sachsen-Anhalt.
    Official flyer:
    The local press in Sachsen-Anhalt and Lower Saxony is running articles about it.,20641266,22287142.html

    Talking a lot about how “extreme weather” is harming the poor trees. Avoid the term “waming”. Don’t remind them that the prognosis was “warming”. They’re all about “climate change”.

  20. These climate change forecasts make me laugh. At the moment our national weather forecast normally shows the next 24 hours – any longer than that and (they say) it is unreliable. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was predicted about a week out, using probabilities based on 50 variations of a forecast model. That is state of the art on weather forecasting, which is far easier than long term forecasting of climate change.

    Trying to predict the impact of climate change accurately is clearly some years away. So until then business is going to have to consider a range of options within their plans – from colder to hotter to wetter to drier.

  21. Richard North has a hilarious overview of BBC reports on the Scottish skiing industry: “Climate change: ski-tastrophe deferred.”

    December 2003: “Many ski resorts face economic hardship as a result of climate change. One ski resort in Scotland, Glencoe, where snow had never been very reliable, had just announced that it is suffering financial difficulties.”

    Februari 2004: “Two of Scotland’s best known ski centres are being put on the market after losing £1m in two years. (…) The Economist magazine issued a warning over the future of skiing in Scotland due to warmer winters and dwindling profits.”

    October 2004: “Scottish ski resorts could be no more by 2050 if nothing is done to fight global warming, says a new report.”

    June 2007: “While you can’t blame every twist and turn on global warming, only a handful of scientists now doubt that we’re seeing a long-term trend and that humans are responsible for Earth’s increased atmospheric temperatures. (…) These days we’re more likely to get rain than snow. Cairngorm Mountain said they have just had their worst-ever ski season. ”

    January 2010: “The CairnGorm Mountain ski centre in the Highlands will be closed for the day – because of too much snow.”

    April 2013: “Snowsports ‘boost’ to Scotland’s economy. (…) Ski centres at Glenshee, The Lecht, Cairngorms, Nevis Range, and Glencoe have benefited from wintry weather. (…) Ski-Scotland is saying that this season could be one of the best snow sports seasons in Scotland in recent years.”

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