Spiegel has stopped believing. The flagship news magazine writes:
Global warming has stalled for 15 years. Experts thus are having doubts on the reliability of their prognoses. The temperature development is moving along the lowest margins of the UN scenarios.”
Science reporter Axel Bojanowski at Spiegel here looks at the performance of climate models, claiming that a few aren’t doing too bad, while the alarmist ones are failing. As a successful model he cites Myles Allen of Oxford University and his colleagues. Yet most fail, and thus Bojanowski writes:
For this reason some scientists now harbor the hope that the pessimistic climate prognoses could be wrong.”
They are, and tomorrow’s post will show just how miserably poor the models have been. In fact if policymakers had acted opposite of what the models suggested, far better policy would have been the result.
In the report, what Bojanowski is telling us is: sure, many models are not doing well, but I found one that is kind of right.
When you look objectively at the performance of climate models over the last 20 years, there’s really only one rational conclusion that can be drawn: Their performance has been deplorable.
To explain why the alarmist models “could be” wrong, Bojanowski cites former Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Director Lennart Bengtsson, who calls the current global temperature development “mind boggling“, saying that although CO2 emissions have increased drasticly, “global warming is prgressing considerably slower than expected.”
The same is true when it comes to the tropics, where warming was supposed to be galloping away by now, Bojanowski writes. Both Bengtsson and Spiegel are somewhat astonished that the Earth refuses to warm up. Bojanowski sums it up in Part 2:
Thus there is hope that climate change is progressing less dramaticly than suspected.”
Here you have to read between the lines. What Spiegel really wants to say is: We’ve stopped believing in the climate catastrophe. The climate models have performed like crap, but we are not yet ready to come out and admit it.
Remember, admitting you’ve been wrong for a quarter century takes time.