I’m late this time around with meteorologist Joe Bastardi’s Saturday Summary (4/20). If you haven’t seen it, then do take the few minutes to do so. He has a short outlook for the coming years.
He starts by showing the global temperature for the last 4 years: “…you can see the fall that is occurring; it’s very plain to see“.
Snapshot of Joe Bastardi’s Saturday Summary (4/20).
Of course four years do not make a trend. But they do come after 11 years of stagnation. After 11 years of no warming, one would think the warming would finally resume. Instead just the opposite has occurred – and it has been cooling amazingly fast (almost 0.4°C) – thus completely defying the models. Boy, the oceans must have one big appetite!
If the last four years had seen warming, all the alarmists would be jumping up and down right now, hollering that global warming has resumed and that we’re all doomed.
Bastardi:
I’ve seen some outrageous statements being made lately, just simply denying the facts that the previous 12, 13 years have been level. And now you see it falling off. This is because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has flipped. Though there are much more important things facing our country today, and facing the globe in general, this issue has really been blown out of proportion compared to the importance of some other things. In my opinion, even though I’m involved in it, you might think: ‘You get a lot of attention, why are you trying to downplay it?’ Because it’s a joke! Alright, the global temperatures respond to the sun, the ocean, the large-scale drivers, and not to the other things.
If you just watch as an objective person, if you watch over the coming years, you’ll see this trend continue. Just like you can’t deny it was going up when the oceans were warming up in the 80s – from the very cold levels of the 60s and 70s – you can’t deny that it’s going down now.”
Are Rob Honeycutt and his buddy Dana listening?
Last I heard is that they’ve turned to blaming the oceans for eating up all the lost warming. Unfortunately for them, the bet was on RSS and UAH trends, and not the temperature down somewhere in the ocean depths.
They shouldn’t take it too hard, though, because it’s for charity. And besides, it should come to them as a relief that the world isn’t going to burn up like they thought (or hoped?) it would.
The interesting thing about the deep ocean so called warming
1) What happens when that water upwells…it cools.
2) If it’s warming at those levels, it’s a product of much greater time scale reactions than several years.
3) Just how were these people measuring these temps 50 yrs, 75 years, 100 years ago? It’s just another place where data can be manipulated to fit an agenda.
4) Next time Sponge Bob is on, I’ll scream at him to beware of the warming.
Good old Joe! I used to follow him when he was with Accuweather, and he was dead right with his European forecasts, particularly with the U.K. winter of 2010 which took everyone by surprise.
I seem to remember him forecasting severe European winters beginning about 2013: better bateen down the hatches!
…and so it begins.
I remember my grandfather (1869—1959) telling me about how, when he was a boy, he and his friends used to skate on the Hudson River in New York City, because it had frozen over.
If—and I emphasize IF— we are headed in that direction as we appear to be, how the warmists and all their wind turbines, ethanol-laced gasoline, and other wasteful gimmicks to reduce AGW, will deal with another LIA?
The world wants to know.
Germany, at least, is wising up with the construction of six new coal facilities (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/23/germany-to-open-six-more-coal-power-stations-in-2013/ ). Would that we, and others, would do the same.
I’m not a gardener, but when I look out the window then I can see that mother nature is quite late in Ireland. Maybe like last year when when we needed to heat a few days in June(!).
We had frost last night and the day temperature didn’t reach 2 digits. The local weather man tweeted Max Temp 9.6.
They blame the no recent warming on heat hiding in the oceans, why didn’t “they” blame the warming of 1978-1998 on the oceans releasing heat during that cycle when El Nino’s predominated?
Because they have an agenda. They are not interested in science; that includes Dana and Honeycutt, of course.
Dana, Robert, who pays you? Or are you volunteers for the Malthusian movement?
Can one bet now?
Sorry, but the deadline was over a year and a half ago.
Keep in mind that the LIA was some 600 years in duration (13th to 19th centuries). It is very easy to cool the ocean from above as that process works with convection. I would expect to see that the oceans did cool over the 600 years of the LIA.
In the 150 years since, we have warmer average temperatures so I would also expect the oceans to warm BUT warming from the surface would work against convection and the warmer water would tend to want to stay near the surface. So we have to wait for the natural ventilation cycle of the ocean to bring the cold bottom water back to the surface where it can exchange with the atmosphere.
The oceans are probably quicker to cool than to warm. Try to boil a pot of water with a flame applied on the top surface of it. The water is very slow to heat that way. But you can put some ice on the surface and cool the contents relatively quickly.
@ „The oceans are probably quicker to cool than to warm.”
The oceans are cold! The average temperature is only about 4°C! It would take only a “minor” shift to trigger the return of an ice age at higher latitude (e.g. 45° N) within a couple of months.
ABOUT the “bet”: My small anti warming bet (05 Jan.2011) seem to have evaporated!
@” Thanks Arnd. I’ll put you down for 25 USD, which is less than 20 euro. –PG”
Corbin predicted that awhile back:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VakA4-qAuWE#!
[…] temperatures are falling…….. Joe Bastardi On Global Temperature: ?The Fall Is Very Very Plain To See?You?ll See This Trend Contin… And this past week in the US, over 3,300 record cold temperatures were set. 3,318 cold records […]
My tulips got frostbitten this spring. That’s the first time that’s happened in the 8 years I’ve lived in Colorado Springs. It’s almost May, and we have another cold front coming tomorrow that will drop us back into TEENS! That’s more like January temps than April. 🙁
[…] temperaturen behalve dat “het enkele graden kouder zal worden”. Joe Bastardi laat hierrr net overduidelijk zien dat de neergang in temperatuur al 4 jaar bezig is. Als […]
Do I read this right? He took the average of the three year temperature series he is looking at as his baseline and then determined the deviation above and below that on more or less a daily basis to create this chart? That makes a temperature 0.6C above the long term (1900-2000) average the “norm” .
The scale on the left hand side appears to be in degrees C and shows a variation of about 1.2C over the time-scale, whereas the official charts show a variation of about 0.12C over that period, so I guess he has set his axis for tenths of a degree, rather than for degrees, making the drop look 10 times larger than it actually is.
Take a look at the actual long-term chart and you can, indeed, see a drop from +0.6C to +0.5C in the most recent temperature, but you will also notice that when we were told in 2001 that warming was over and cooling had set in, the temperature then was still 0.1C below the temperature today http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png
If Bastardi has manipulated his ultra-short-term-trend to generate and apparent 10-fold increase in its extent, then it is little wonder that the guy’s reputation is shot to pieces in the science community.
Paul, are you familiar with the concept of moving averages and their filtering effects in the frequency domain, often referred to as “smoothing”? I am asking this because you sound somewhat hysterical about a very ordinary thing. Moving averages are one of many low pass filters and dampen high frequencies. That is why short term charts often appear more noisy than highly smoothed charts like the one from NOAA that you cite. There is no authority that declares one application of smoothing to be scientific and another one to be unscientific.
Thanks, Dirk. Do you actually know what the zero line on his chart represents? It’s obviously not a moving average, it just looks like a straightforward average of those data points to me. And do you know what the numbers on the left represent, because it’s obviously not in degrees C.
Are you saying that Bastardi hasn’t pulled up a trend that is so short term that it has very little meaning and has then trumpeted it as amazing proof of something that is quite contrary to the big picture? You’ll notice that his trend coincides with unusually low solar activity among other factors.
It would be very nice if this short-term fluctuation did turn into a long-term trend but there is nothing to draw that conclusion from. However, Bastardi’s all worked up about the PDO despite the fact that comparison of the PDO over the past century or so with the global surface temperature shows that the PDO merely introduces some cyclical variation into the warming trend. Over the past several cycles the warming trend has continued, sometimes slower, sometimes faster, it has not been firmly reversed as it would have had to be for Bastardi’s argument to hold water.
The moving average, and therefore the smoothing, is always already contained in the time series. A time series of monthly values samples a moving average with a window of one month length at distances of one month. An annual series does so with a moving average with a window of one year, sampled one time a year. So in every chart that you see there are already at least two filtering functions implicitly contained: a moving average – which smooths the data – and a periodic sampling. A lot of the time, right after the sampling, people draw straight lines between the samples to connect them, which is a third nonlinear operator. Better interpolations use polynomial splines to introduce less nonlinear artifacts (the artifacts are visible in the power spectrum as artificial harmonics).