Hysterical media, politicians, activists and scientists (e.g. Mojib Latif) tried to put the blame for the German flooding earlier this month on man-made climate change. But a recent doctoral dissertation shows that flooding in Southern Germany is very strongly related to solar activity. No correlation is found with CO2.
Source: Markus Czymzik doctorate dissertation, click here.
Flooding catastrophes at the Bavarian Lake Ammer occur predominantly during phases of weak solar activity
By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)
How has flooding developed over the past? What factors have an impact on the development?
The simplistic assertion that “more CO2 means more flooding” simply does not hold water with respect to the complexity of the subject. Modeling studies should first start by reproducing the history of flooding in the past. There’s plenty of information available on past flooding. A series of research teams have surveyed numerous studies of calibration data.
One of these studies took place at the geo-research center (GFZ) in Potsdam, Germany where Markus Czymzik determined the flooding history of Bavaria’s third largest lake, Lake Ammer, for the last 5000 years using sediment cores as part of his doctorate dissertation. The pdf file of the dissertation (English) can be downloaded at no cost. In his dissertation Czymzik explains why Lake Ammer is especially suitable for this type of study [translated from the German]:
Lake Ammer at the foot of the Alps forms an ideal archive for reconstructing flooding. Detritus material is transported by the Ammer River to the lower basin. The varved sediments allow a reliable detection and dating of microscopic flood layers. Instrumental flooding data of the Ammer and weather datasets of the Hohenpeißenberg Meteorological Observatory enable a calibration of the sediment data.”
Already in 2010 Czymzik together with colleagues had published an article in the journal of Water Resources Research (The paper is also included in the doctorate dissertation p. 10). In it the scientists present the flooding frequency development at Lake Ammer for the past 450 years. Much to their surprise an excellent correlation with solar activity is shown. Always when solar activity was weak was there increased flooding at Lake Ammer. Also in the new paper from February 2013 appearing in the Quaternary Science Reviews the scientists were again able to show this amazing relationship.
Flooding frequency of the Lake Ammer region (bottom) and solar activity (above) (from Czymizik 2012, dissertation). Phases of minimal solar activity are shown with a blue shaded background. Whenever the sun was weak (high C14 values, peak) flooding was more frequent.