Explosive: Max Planck Institute Preliminary Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2016!

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It’s not a secret that scientists and politicians have been deeply disappointed by the spectacular failure of climate models. 98% of the long-term climate models failed to project the 16-year warming stop, all having overstated the warming.

So maybe it should not come as surprise that recently the German government quietly put out a bulletin describing a midterm climate forecasting system that is raising some eyebrows.

NordAtlantik

(Caption translation at end of post).

The first 4 pages of the bulletin discuss and extol the then-upcoming IPCC AR5. Pages 5 – 7 then describe three projects that aim to answer some open climate questions.

Project MiKlip first result shows cooling North Atlantic

The most interesting project among them is the Midterm Climate Prognoses project (MiKlip) described on Page 6 of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) bulletin. Page 6 shows the above chart and poses the question: “How warm is it going to be in 10 years? Business and policy need reliable climate forecasts.”

The bulletin adds that “in business and politics there is an increasing need for reliable forecasts for climate developments in the range of years up to a decade.”

And to fulfill that midterm need the German government is funding the MiKlip 10-year forecasting system, which comprises 60 individual research projects. Excerpts from page 6:

It is mainly about computer simulations that use recorded measurement data. … The MiKlip projects have been taking place since spring 2012. The first tangible results are expected to be available in September 2014. … Compared to the long-term scenarios, the results should be more exact. … The model will not deliver a forecast such as the weather at a specific location in a few years. Instead it looks more at the probable mean temperature in Europe in a certain month.”

The above chart on page 6 is a plot of North Atlantic temperature anomaly with respect to the 1971-2000. The chart comes from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The caption reads:

Test forecast with the first MiKlip forecast system. The figure shows the anomaly of the sea surface temperature from the mean in the North Atlantic with the observed data shown in black from 1990 to 2011. White and orange show the test forecast beginning in 2012. Multiple decadal simulations are conducted for forecast in order to take the uncertainty of the initial conditions into account. The mean of the simulations is depicted by the white curve. The confidence intervals of the forecast (%) are shown in orange.”

Again we have to stress that this is only a “test forecast” with the first MiKlip system. But even so, the preliminary result is interesting in that it points to a serious drop in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which of course would have major global climate repercussions, especially in combination with a negative PDO and low solar activity.

So why are we being told that warming is continuing unabated when clearly it is not, and is not expected to for another 10 years at least?

And why is the German government funding the MiKlip models to start with? Is it because the 100-year climate models have been such a huge failure? Obviously they have been. And if the 100-year climate models failed spectacularly for even the first 10 or 20 years, then how can they be regarded as reliable for longer terms?

MiKlip is an important step back towards responsible and serious climate modeling and a sign that governments are finally abandoning the failed long-term models, having recognized that over the mid-term they are grotesquely flawed and have been terribly misleading, e.g. see here.

MiKlip is a nice step away from the dubious 100-year climate fortune-telling (which is naively, simplistically and solely based on the concentration of a single trace gas) and a real step back towards sound science. We are very much looking ahead to the first results.

 

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13 responses to “Explosive: Max Planck Institute Preliminary Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2016!”

  1. Stephen Wilde
  2. DirkH

    “And why is the German government funding the MiKlip models to start with?”

    There is the “science” to control the population with an imaginary scare; delivered by actors like Schellnhuber and Rahmstorff; and then there is science that the regime needs for strategic planning. I guess it is fair to say that the entire IPCC and all of the media science reporting is one big deception.

    BMBF Miklip page
    http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/
    They also plan for validation.
    http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/257.php

  3. Ed Caryl

    For a better look at the actual data, go here:
    http://www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#North%20Atlantic%20(60-0W,%2030-65N)%20heat%20content%200-700%20m%20depth
    The North Atlantic has been cooling for seven years.

  4. Dr Norman Page

    Here is a copy of a post I made on Bob Tisdale’s site in response to his post on yet another paper predicting cooling until the 2020s.
    “It is encouraging to see increasing numbers of academics projecting cooling into the 2020s and 30s.What is amazing to me is the past inability of the vast academic climate science industry to see, admit and state the obvious.
    Everyone can see plainly that temperatures rose from about 1910 – 1940+/- fell from there to the mid 70s and rose from there to about 2003. Wonders ! a sixty year cycle!! . What on earth will happen next?
    Lo and behold there is a millennial cycle – which looks like it too peaked at about the same time. See Figs 3 and 4 at the last post at
    http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
    Dare we think using Ockhams razor that it too will repeat? It seems that that is a leap of the imagination beyond practically everyone in the business.
    The sun is the main climate driver and continues to shine and solar “activity” correlates well with temperature. ( see Fig 3 CD from Steinhilber
    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/03/30/1118965109.full.pdf}
    If you want to see which way solar activity has been and is heading go to the Oulu neutron monitor. Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans It has been estimated that there is about a 12 year lag between the cosmic ray flux and the temperature data. see Fig3 in Usoskin et al
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2005ESASP.560…19U. so we can get a glimpse into the future.
    Using these simple ,transparent and reasonable
    observations it is possible to make useful predictions for several centuries ahead. These can be tested against the data and easily amended as the data comes in. For an estimate of the timing and amount of the coming cooling check my blog at the link above.”
    For convenience here’s the global SST forecast.
    ” Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
    2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
    3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
    4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 minus 0.15
    5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 minus 0.5
    6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
    7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
    8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
    9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.

    How confident should one be in these above predictions? The pattern method doesn’t lend itself easily to statistical measures. However statistical calculations only provide an apparent rigor for the uninitiated and in relation to the IPCC climate models are entirely misleading because they make no allowance for the structural uncertainties in the model set up. This is where scientific judgment comes in – some people are better at pattern recognition and meaningful correlation than others. A past record of successful forecasting such as indicated above is a useful but not infallible measure. In this case I am reasonably sure – say 65/35 for about 20 years ahead. Beyond that certainty drops rapidly. I am sure, however, that it will prove closer to reality than anything put out by the IPCC, Met Office or the NASA group. In any case this is a Bayesian type forecast- in that it can easily be amended on an ongoing basis as the Temperature and Solar data accumulate. If there is not a 0.15 – 0.20. drop in Global SSTs by 2018 -20 I would need to re-evaluate.

  5. Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC? | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

    […] NOTE:  In addition to the above papers, see Pierre Gosselin’s post Explosive: Max Planck Institute Initial Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2016! […]

  6. Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC? | Watts Up With That?

    […] NOTE: In addition to the above papers, see Pierre Gosselin’s post Explosive: Max Planck Institute Initial Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2016! […]

  7. Dr. Lurtz

    Simple Cause Effect Summary:

    1) The Sun drives the Hadley Cells.
    2) The Hadley Cells drive the Trade Winds.
    3) The Trade Winds create Ocean Currents.
    4) The Ocean Currents create bulges in the Gulf of Mexico/ Indonesia.
    5) The Bulges drive major named Ocean Currents, such as the Gulf Stream.
    6) The Gulf Stream warms Europe.

    Summary:

    Sun inactivity -> Gulf Stream Reduction.
    Gulf Stream Reduction -> Negative AO.
    Negative AO -> Colder Europe.

    Same for the PDO.

  8. Ferdinand Engelbeen

    Wow! Even taking into account that a model outcome need to be taken with a grain (or a lot) of salt, until validated that is very interesting news.
    That they dare to show a cooling is a sign that they incorporated more natural variability and less CO2 effect. Maybe a turning point for the model makers… (although the Hadley medium term forecast was already flat). If Hans Von Storch follows with his model (and I am sure he will go that direction), then we will see more such “projections” coming out at the low side to below the IPCC range…

  9. Volker Doormann

    “Explosive: Max Planck Institute Preliminary Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2016! “

    This is not explosive. Some comments:

    There is no explanation given, on what physics and/or geometries the preliminary forecast is based.
    Because the global temperature function is familiar with North Atlantik SST there is no reason to limit the forecast to the home sea of the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg, Germany.
    It is known to the climate community for over three years (!) that the main function of the global temperature is connected phase coherent to the solar tides from all planetary couples beside the passive impedance effects of the ocean oscillations (MEI) and the gaps from volcano’s.
    Because of the strength of the tide effects, which are follow a square root function of the tide period, a summation of the single tide functions shows a beginning of a decreasing temperature with about 2012.

    http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/miklip_solar_tides.jpg

    It is an old duck, discovered in February 2010.

    V.

  10. Sjeverni Atlantik će se do 2016. ohladiti za 0,5 stupnjeva Celzija – tvrde znanstvenici instituta Max Planck | Matrix World

    […] Explosive: Max Planck Institute Preliminary Forecast Shows 0.5°C Cooling Of North Atlantic SST By 2… […]

  11. Eric Worrall

    There’s a growing scandal in Australia of foreign governments buying up large tracts of Australian farmland.

    http://www.theland.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/increased-farm-buyer-scrutiny-likely/2675740.aspx

    Why would they do that, unless they were worried that a drop in global temperatures might damage productivity in their own food producing regions?

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