NOAA Forced To Totally Overhaul Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads

Models and experts of every type have had plenty of setbacks making forecasts for chaotic systems. Recent examples include the election results and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s prediction that the US market would dive in response to the election of Trump (it in fact went on and set a new all-time record high).

If anything has lost its worth, it’s the value of Krugman’s Nobel Prize

Recently German weather site Wetterfrosch posted at Facebook that the US NOAA had been forced to correct its previous Europe seasonal forecast for the coming winter.

Earlier the NOAA had forecast a mild winter, but now the American meteorologists are foreseeing a “significantly much colder than normal month for Scandinavia and Russia“.

For the time being, the NOAA is sticking to its mild winter forecast for Central Europe. However, German meteorologist Dominik Jung has doubts on that mild outlook, warning that there is a real possibility of getting hit by cold blasts from Siberia.

The central European forecast over the next week sees continued colder than normal weather. Earlier in the week large parts of Germany were hit by snowfall and frosty temperatures. November temperatures so far are well below normal.

Recent computer models show massive regions of cold having spread over Russia and Canada and now threaten to whip Europe over the weeks ahead. Interestingly the cold has split over the high Arctic and produced a mild pocket over the pole – due to a blocking pattern over the past few weeks which is expected to continue well through November.

The following chart shows the GFS 850 hPa temperature outlook for November 14, cropped from meteociel.fr. Note the warm pole:

n-hemisphere-24-nov-2016

Source: meteociel.fr.

Three days ago The Telegraph here reported: “Freezing temperatures are likely to hit Britain this winter as the polar vortex above the Arctic moves south bringing bone-chilling weather in the run up to Christmas, the Met Office has predicted.”

 

47 responses to “NOAA Forced To Totally Overhaul Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads”

  1. NOAA U-Turn on Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads - Principia Scientific International

    […] – See more at: notrickszone.com […]

  2. sod

    “the US market would dive in response to the election of Trump (it in fact went on and set a new all-time record high).”

    Look at who is winning:

    http://time.com/4565252/donald-trump-election-stock-market-rise/

    That is NOT good news!

    1. AndyG55

      The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety, fell 23 percent .

      So DON’T PANIC !! , you poor sop.

      1. sod

        “The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety, fell 23 percent . ”

        You are always just scratching the surface. The is exactly zero depth in your “analysis”.

        Trump is running on an incredibly economy friendly message. The stocks should have jumped up immediately.

        Instead they fell. now they react cautiously to a softened message by Trump.

        1. DirkH

          “Trump is running on an incredibly economy friendly message. The stocks should have jumped up immediately. ”

          Jumped? Due to Central Bank debt buying programs and ultra cheap credit, Companies have engaged in large scale buybacks, driving their P/E ratio and their stock quotes into the stratosphere.

          These companies are barely profitable for 3 years now. This is like keeping an erection for far too long. Expect a cardiac arrest any minute.

          Also, the small Trump dump immediately vanished. Like you just predicted.

          Nevertheless. This market craves another shot in the arm every day. The ECB delivers to the tune of 100 bn EUR a year, the BOJ as well.

          The market can only be kept at these levels by having the Central Banks devour all assets with freshly printed money: We are witnessing the absorption of the entire economy into the balance sheet of the CBs.

          1. DirkH

            “The ECB delivers to the tune of 100 bn EUR a year”

            Sorry, mistake, its 100 bn EUR a month of course, buying state debt and company debt, allowing companies to take enormous credit, this enabled for instance the Bayer-Monsanto merger.

          2. Analitik

            Don’t worry Dirk – now that Hillary has lost, Yellen has no reason to keep pumping the market so she will raise rates and the other CBs will be forced to follow. The global recession will be another of the benefits that Trump’s win will provide as the world will no longer be able to afford the luxury of financing the CAGW bull$hit and associated renewables.

          3. DirkH

            I am awaiting the crash for the last 3 years. The powers that be have expended enormous energy just to keep the market levitated.

        2. David Johnson

          US stocks up again

        3. AndyG55

          roflmao.

          Poor sop !

          You have ZERO clue what you are talking about, yet again. !

      2. yonason

        More proof sod just makes stuff up, or is mindlessly regurgitating talking points made up by his Leftist pals.
        http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/traders-nyse-boo-clinton-kaine-concession-speech-shout-lock/

    2. David Johnson

      Sod now proves he knows nothing about fiscal matters, is there no end to his lack of talents?

      1. Analitik

        Rates will rise, there will be a global recession, subsidies will stop and many “growth” and “green” companies will fold as fundamental economics dictate.

        Donald Trump talked about the economic bubble that has been engineered by the left during the second debate. He knows what’s coming.

  3. TLMango

    Isn’t the magnetic pole drifting toward Siberia?
    If so, this is something that shouldn’t be ignored.
    I’m beginning to despise ‘the weather channel’.
    Delusional meteorologists pushing global warming when
    they could be covering the incredible scientific
    phenomena that is taking place in Siberia. I know
    I’m getting older, but these zombie millennials
    really frighten me.

  4. John F. Hultquist

    I note the warm air in western North America extends to Lake Athabasca in northern Saskatchewan.
    I’m well south and a bit west of that, and also in the warm zone.
    When the upper air patterns shift, and they will, Europe will warm and polar air will come our way. “Siberian Express” (sometimes Polar Express) is a meteorological term in the United States but I do not know if it is used elsewhere.
    I can’t say I welcome this, but we need a very cold spell to kill some of the insects, such as the western spruce budworm — widely distributed and destructive defoliator of coniferous forests in Western North America.

    1. Rud Istvan

      Am laying in extra oak off the seasoned logging woodpile snaked in by tractor andmwood tongs two y ars ago, in anticipation that this winter starts mild and ends real cold. Going to my Wisconsin farm to execute next week.

  5. John F. Hultquist

    I don’t know what to expect, but do have a modern wood stove and lots of wood.
    We’ve no oaks locally but the university 10 miles south has various ones, and many other non-native trees. Here the favorite tree for home heating is the Tamarack (Western Larch) because of its straight grain, few limbs, and easy splitting.

    1. yonason

      Wow, no wonder the Tamarack, it’s very energy dense.
      http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsbdev3_035113.pdf

      Must smell nice burning, too.

    2. yonason

      Oh, this one is more complete than the last one I posted (when it gets out of Pierre’s trash bin) – less propaganda laden, as well (or is that “informative?”)
      http://firewoodresource.com/firewood-btu-ratings/

  6. Il NOAA Costretto a Rivedere Totalmente le Previsioni per il Prossimo Inverno in Nord Europa e Russia, le Previsioni Dicono Inverno Gelido : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: notrickszone […]

  7. tom0mason

    I wonder how those parasites on their way to COP22 party conference in Marrakesh explain that in the country right next to them, in North Africa, is having problems with snow —

    Roads blocked by snow in parts of Algeria

    8 Nov 2016 (Excerpts) – “It is cold, rain and snow have fallen in abundance on several regions of the country. These incidents caused several fatal accidents on the roads …. at least 8 people were killed and 48 others injured in road accidents in several parts of the country.

    “Road traffic in the capital has been severely disrupted by inclement weather and interminable traffic jams have formed around the main roads in Algiers.

    “In the west of the country, the army had to intervene to reopen roads, blocked by snow, especially in Sidi Bel Abbes.”

    http://www.tsa-algerie.com/20161108/intemperies-accidents-ortels-inondations-routes-coupees-neige/

    Thanks to Patrick at https://iceagenow.info/roads-blocked-snow-parts-algeria/ for this link.

    Or that snow in Tripoli Libya 15-12-2010, February 2015 Morocco, and January 2013 Saudi Arabia all had snow. Snow appears to be getting more common in North Africa recently, that does not indicate global warming it is a clear and definite evidence of global cooling!

    Only people (and they are numerous) that believe in the sanctity of climate models do not see the cool facts.

  8. Kenneth Simmons

    In contrast the NOAA forecast for the Eastern half of the US seems to be right on target- Warm, with limited snow.

  9. David Appell

    Cold weather in a few regions for a month or two says absolutely nothing about climate or climate change.

    Don’t understand why this is so difficult to understand, but I do understand why it’s inconvenient for you.

    1. Josh

      ‘Cold weather in a few regions for a month or two says absolutely nothing about climate or climate change.’

      Neither do short term warming trends in a few places or pronouncements of ‘hottest year ever’. Its is a galactic process and not governed by greenhouse gases. But I guess that would be decidedly inconvenient for people who believe that we are headed for some sort of climate catastrophe.

      1. David Appell

        “Neither do short term warming trends in a few places or pronouncements of ‘hottest year ever’.”

        That’s right. So do you want to present long-term trends (>= 30 years), or should I?

    2. AndyG55

      There is only one person lacking comprehension around here, and that is YOU, rotten -appell.

      Did you ever find those pictures of birds killed by coal fired power stations??

      EVERYBODY now knows that is a LIE, a total FABRICATION, just like everything else you post.

      ZERO evidence appell !! A big EMPTY non-entity.

      And don’t tell me you are still using EL Nino transient effects, the ONLY warming in the satellite era, to try to prop up the FABRICATED FARCE that is AGW. I wouldn’t have thought even you could be that much of an ANTI-SCIENCE MORON….

      … but you keep proving that you are. !!

    3. DirkH

      David Appell 12. November 2016 at 2:53 AM | Permalink | Reply
      “Cold weather in a few regions for a month or two says absolutely nothing about climate or climate change.
      Don’t understand why this is so difficult to understand, but I do understand why it’s inconvenient for you.”

      Well simple David. If I heat up a pot of water on my stove and a few isolated ice cubes form where there were none and this continues on and on I might develop the hunch that something is not quite right with my stove.

      We call this “evidence”, as opposed to “models”. My model says I should have boiling water real soon now.

      1. David Appell

        Dirk wrote:
        “If I heat up a pot of water on my stove and a few isolated ice cubes form where there were none and this continues on and on I might develop the hunch that something is not quite right with my stove.”

        A very poor analogy.

        Because your stove is a much more even, stable source of heat than exists in climate, and the volume is very small.

        Ever been in a pool or pond and encountered cool spots? What causes them?

        1. David Appell

          No answer, Dirk?

        2. DirkH

          “Because your stove is a much more even, stable source of heat than exists in climate, and the volume is very small.”

          What is it that you say there? CO2-caused back radiation is not stable? CO2 is not well mixed?

    4. AndyG55

      Poor appel-grub

      Still relying on El Nino transient events to show ANY WARMING AT ALL.

      The remnant heat from the El Nino and North Atlantic blob is gradually dissipating from the Arctic.

      There is nothing left after that.

      El Nino area is COLD

      Northern Atlantic and Northern Pacific are COLD

      Have a lovely COLD winter, rotten-appell. !

      Although, I assume your granny will pay for the heating of her basement.

      https://s19.postimg.org/utgfak6i9/cool_oceans.png

    5. David Johnson

      And neither does hot WEATHER.

  10. sod

    October was really warm. La Nina did not show up, so most likely 2016 will be the hottest year on record, even in the tainted satellite data.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/11/uah-global-temperature-update-for-october-2016-0-41-deg-c/

    But yes, we can focus instead on a forecast of a irrelevant weather event in a small part of the world, to cover how wrong folks here were on climate…

    1. David Johnson

      Explain why the satellite data is tainted?

      1. David Appell

        The satellite data requires a host of adjustments. A diurnal correction. An instrumental heat correction. And more. (See their early papers.)

        UAH has spent almost 40 years trying to get this right, and they still haven’t. Their model for calculating temperature anomalies is very complex.

    2. AndyG55

      sop uses the remnant heat in the arctic as a crutch

      Meanwhile the oceans start to cool.

      https://s19.postimg.org/utgfak6i9/cool_oceans.png#sthash.HWGmzHNf.dpuf

      He knows the surface data is a complete FARCE with nearly 50% of it being totally FABRICATED, and much of the rest coming from badly sighted stations with huge urban effects, but because he is an ignorant brain-washed, anti-science sop, says the satellite data is tainted.. quite bizarre !!.

    3. DirkH

      “But yes, we can focus instead on a forecast of a irrelevant weather event in a small part of the world, to cover how wrong folks here were on climate…”

      That’s why you warmunists keep obsessing about ice at the North pole?

  11. tom0mason

    For an interesting forecast and some historic references see http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

  12. David Appell

    These two sentences directly contradict one another:

    “NOAA Forced To Totally Overhaul Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads”

    “For the time being, the NOAA is sticking to its mild winter forecast for Central Europe”

    1. yonason

      In the real world there IS a difference between “Northern” and “Central” there is no contradiction. But I can see where in the imaginary world of models and CO2 paranoid fantasy they might easily be confused.

  13. David Appell

    The post says:
    “Putting these records together, it can therefore be concluded that global-scale warming and cooling events occur naturally at rates and amplitudes several times greater (multiple degrees per decade) than what has occurred since 1850 (<0.05°C per decade)"

    I'm sorry, but this is not correct.

    Your calculation would only matter if there was one and only one climate forcing. But there isn't, and there hasn't been. What's causing the large temperature increases today was not the same forcing in the first half of the 20th century or the second half of the nineteenth century.

    It's a multivariable problem. And any analysis has to take that into account.

    1. tom0mason

      ““Putting these records together, it can therefore be concluded that global-scale warming and cooling events occur naturally at rates and amplitudes several times greater (multiple degrees per decade) than what has occurred since 1850 (<0.05°C per decade)"

      I'm sorry, but this is not correct. "

      You as usual are wrong. Your dependencies are unreal.

      1. David Appell

        Not a convincing response.

    2. AndyG55

      List ALL the variable that are “climate forcings™”, and their relative amounts.

      Then show us pictures of birds killed by coal fired power stations.

      You HAVE NOTHING but a big emptymess, rotten appell.

    3. AndyG55

      “What’s causing the large temperature increases today”

      You live in a total fantasy world, rotten-appell.

      We have very fortunately climbed out of the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years, and are still well below the temperatures of the MWP , RWP and the Holocene Optimum.

      There has not been and “large” temperature increase.

      And what there has been has come purely from Solar forced El Ninos. (and of course, massive fudging of GISS data)

      And most of that warming was before 1940, then there was a cooling period to 1970ish (now erased from the data by FRAUDULENT data tampering.)

      Even you fantasy writing is a total mess, no wonder you write for a low-end back-water rag.

      You still are unable to back up LIES that you have told in the past..

      You just keep RUNNING and HIDING.. like a little worm. !!

    4. AndyG55

      This is for you rotten.

      http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2016/countymaprb1024.png

      Let me guess, that little bit of blue in Oregon is where they grow rotten appells.

  14. tom0mason

    Future trends, for the northern hemisphere are highly dependent on how well this snow covering lasts.

    IMO a two years or so of a build-up in Arctic circle snow cover, and the weather will cool; much more and the trend for oncoming cooling of the climate will become established (similar to the cool 1960-1970s). A very long period of persistent snow cover and it’ll be a Maunder type of event.
    This current cooling and snow build-up appears to have started (albeit intermittently) after 2012, and so points, at least, to a 1970’s type cool period.
    In Shindell et al, a paper co-authored by Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt in 2001, a curate’s egg of a paper, however in it the authors discuss a correlation between the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum, and a strong Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation effect that drives much colder winters in to North America, Europe, and Asia. On Page 3 of there is a map of the colder mid-latitude continents associated with low solar activity and high levels of atmospheric pressure blocking. This year has thus far shown signs of significant blocking activity. Coupled with that the last few years have had the quietest solar activity since the 1800s, and research suggests the sun may go much quieter yet.
    So Mr. Dicken’s what was the climate like in the early 1800s?
    COLD!