Models and experts of every type have had plenty of setbacks making forecasts for chaotic systems. Recent examples include the election results and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s prediction that the US market would dive in response to the election of Trump (it in fact went on and set a new all-time record high).
If anything has lost its worth, it’s the value of Krugman’s Nobel Prize
Recently German weather site Wetterfrosch posted at Facebook that the US NOAA had been forced to correct its previous Europe seasonal forecast for the coming winter.
Earlier the NOAA had forecast a mild winter, but now the American meteorologists are foreseeing a “significantly much colder than normal month for Scandinavia and Russia“.
For the time being, the NOAA is sticking to its mild winter forecast for Central Europe. However, German meteorologist Dominik Jung has doubts on that mild outlook, warning that there is a real possibility of getting hit by cold blasts from Siberia.
The central European forecast over the next week sees continued colder than normal weather. Earlier in the week large parts of Germany were hit by snowfall and frosty temperatures. November temperatures so far are well below normal.
Recent computer models show massive regions of cold having spread over Russia and Canada and now threaten to whip Europe over the weeks ahead. Interestingly the cold has split over the high Arctic and produced a mild pocket over the pole – due to a blocking pattern over the past few weeks which is expected to continue well through November.
The following chart shows the GFS 850 hPa temperature outlook for November 14, cropped from meteociel.fr. Note the warm pole:
Three days ago The Telegraph here reported: “Freezing temperatures are likely to hit Britain this winter as the polar vortex above the Arctic moves south bringing bone-chilling weather in the run up to Christmas, the Met Office has predicted.”