Signs Show Planet Entering A New Dalton Minimum…Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Be Weakest In 200 Years!

Global surface temperatures have been falling steadily since the last El Nino, glacier melt has been decelerating rapidly and Arctic sea ice has been making a surprising recovery this year. Moreover, the equatorial Pacific has just entered a global cooling La Nina phase.

But there is another far more ominous, long-term sign that the planet is cooling, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse write: Signs show the earth is heading into a Dalton Minimum like the one the planet was forced to endure some 200 years ago.
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The Sun in October 2017

By Frank Bosse und Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The (almost) sole provider of the Earth’s energy at the center of our solar system was once again well below normal in activity last month. The measured sunspot number (SSN) was on average only 13.2. Especially during the middle October trimester (from October 9 to October 20) the sun was almost spotless (11 of 12 days). Thus our sun saw a level of activity that was just 33% of what is normal for this month (no. 107) into the solar cycle.

Looking at the entire solar cycle, the current cycle is only 56% as active as the mean solar cycle (shown in blue below), which is calculated from the previous 23 solar cycles:

Figure 1: The current cycle is shown by the red curve and is compared to the mean curve (blue) and the similar solar cycle number 5 (black). Over the past year we observe that there has been a hiatus in solar activity with a mean SSN of about 25.

 

Comparison of all the cycles follows:

Fig. 2: The accumulated sunspot anomaly from the mean of the previous 23 cycles – 107 months into the cycle.

The current solar cycle 24 is the third weakest since the systematic observation of solar cycle activity began in 1755. Only solar cycles nos. 5 and 6 (1798…1823 during the Dalton Minimum) were weaker.

Now we would like to look into the future to solar cycle number 25, which is expected to begin around 2021. To do this we use the strength of the current polar field, which we reported on in greater detail in December 2016, also read here in English.

Entering a phase similar to the Dalton Minimum

The researchers at the Wilcox-Observatory of Stanford University were alerted to a impaired mirror that caused inaccurate readings. Since then the error has been resolved and we can now take another look at the data. The fields (the average of the northern and southern hemisphere values) were at 57 centi-Gauss (cG).

The previous solar cycle 23 (an indicator for sunspot activity for the current cycle) at the same point in time in the cycle was approx. 61 cG. In comparison: the quite normal solar cycle 23 (see Fig. .2) was indicated by a field of approx. 104 cG. Thus it is highly probably that also solar cycle 25 will be less active than normal like the current cycle is.

As a result we will experience a weak solar phase that is comparable to that of the Dalton Minimum. It is unlikely that we will experience an even weaker phase like that of the Maunder-Minimum, which occurred between 1650 and 1700.

 

28 responses to “Signs Show Planet Entering A New Dalton Minimum…Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Be Weakest In 200 Years!”

  1. John F. Hultquist

    Years ago there were things that indicated the continents moved around. Some of these, beyond just the shape, were amazing. Still, “Continental Drift” was in the limbo of infants because a mechanism for the movement was unknown.

    If there is a known mechanism for the connection of sun spots (solar activity) and Earth’s temperature, I have yet to read it. I’m not saying there isn’t one, just that I don’t understand what it is.

    I also think there are things going on, on Earth, that complicate the issue.

    1. Richard111

      Good question John. My only eduction on the subject comes from reading on the internet. Here’s my take. Low solar sunspot activity indicates low magnetic activity from the sun. This allows Earth’s magnetic field to relax somewhat. The result is more cosmic rays to impact the atmosphere producing increased cloud cover which is a cooling effect. Also it seems the relaxing of the Earth’s magnetic field effects magma flow which seems to be triggering more volcanic events. Again gas and muck from volcanoes provides cooling. Too much cooling and global temperatures will drop.
      Only confirmation of this is current observations. Something is happening and it is not global warming.

      1. SebastianH

        Says a guy in the seconds/third warmest year on record that came right after the warmest year on record …

        1. Kenneth Richard

          Assuming you believe that humans caused the 2016 anomalously warm year, and that the natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event had little to do with the temperature increase, what mechanism do you attribute the -0.6 C cooling during 2016 to?

          http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2016/to:2017

          1. SebastianH

            You and you assumptions and interpretations … you really should stop doing that.

            Is 2017 an especially cold year or an especially warm year? Or is this – again – a case of faked temperature data? The manipulation conspiracy that only you guys are aware of and everyone else “just believes” as the sheep we are? 🙂

          2. Kenneth Richard

            I’d like to find out how you will answer the question. I’ll ask again…let’s see if you dodge it again. You seem to have great difficulty answering mechanism questions in light of your beliefs.

            Assuming you believe that humans caused the 2016 anomalously warm year, and that the natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event had little to do with the temperature increase, what mechanism do you attribute the -0.6 C cooling during 2016 to?

            http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2016/to:2017

            Is 2017 an especially cold year or an especially warm year?

            Relative to when? Considering the Earth is 4 to 6 degrees colder now than it was during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, when CO2 concentrations were 260 ppm, some context is needed.

            faked temperature data?

            What do you call it when areas that have no instrumental thermometers post record-high temperatures? How does that work, exactly?

            https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/122016.gif

          3. SebastianH

            I am not dodging, I am saying you should stop assuming things …

            There are multiple assumptions in your reply which lead to wrong conclusions and – I assume – are the reason why you think you are a skeptic or must be a skeptic.

          4. Kenneth Richard

            I am not dodging

            Then why is this now the 3rd time I have asked this question?

            Assuming you believe that humans caused the 2016 anomalously warm year, and that the natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event had little to do with the temperature increase, what mechanism do you attribute the -0.6 C cooling during 2016 to?

            http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2016/to:2017

            I assume – are the reason why you think you are a skeptic

            My question has nothing to do with what I think regarding being a skeptic. I’m asking you to identify the mechanism that caused the -0.6 C cooling anomaly during 2016. I understand why you’re dodging the question, but doing so speaks to your integrity.

          5. yonason

            “You and you assumptions and interpretations … you really should stop doing that.” – SebH

            If you weren’t so vague, we wouldn’t have to guess about what you meant. YOU should really stop doing THAT!

            But I’m guessing that it’s probably deliberate on you’re part. And, yes, that’s an “assumption,” but it’s one that is justified based on how little you ever have to say.

    2. Chris in Calgary

      John: a good question indeed. Though our knowledge of these mechanisms is nowhere near complete, at least one mechanism has been proposed: cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere causing cloud formation.

      The Sun’s magnetic field tends to deflect cosmic rays from hitting the Earth. As the Sun’s magnetic field weakens, more cosmic rays get through to cause cloud formation, which reflects more sunlight back to space.

      This is known as the “Svensmark effect”.

      See here: https://principia-scientific.org/strong-evidence-that-svensmark-s-solar-cosmic-ray-theory-of-climate-is-correct/

  2. Stephen Richards

    I can’t wait to see another 1881 blizzard in london

    1. Graeme No.3

      A foot or more of snow in London with drifts 3 feet or more high? (halfway up the lamp posts). Overnight minimums of minus 15℃ ?
      I take it you don’t live in London (or you dislike those who do).

    2. tom0mason

      A “1881 blizzard in london”

      Power interruptions causing communications failures, transport hardly moving, food and water shortages, hospitals overflowing, businesses at a standstill, and the London’s freezing population hunkered down in their poorly insulated homes.
      Umm…, not good!

  3. AlecM

    Solar tsi falls, Earth cools – it’s the new LIA sent to us to humiliate the climate fraudsters.

  4. tom0mason

    Pierre,

    Could you please update you link for “Sunspot Tracking Graph”(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/) on the right side of the page, it appear to out of date.
    Maybe this one http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression or maybe a page from https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/ , or even from http://www.solen.info/solar/ where they compare solar cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and the current 24 — solar cycle 12 appears to be a quite good fit to our current if a little displaced in time but not in intensity.

  5. David Turner

    Some time in life earth will change .my life your life earth will change and it is changing

  6. Sparks

    We can’t kill humans, so lets make them suffer.

  7. Sparks

    We’re going to always have severe winters, thanks to some brain dead civil servants. We can enjoy, expensive winters.

    well done!

  8. Sparks

    But civil servants are just doing their job, isn’t that right?

  9. RAH

    I’m not buying the idea we’re going into another LIA yet. Too early to tell just how deep cycle 24 will go or how long it will hang at or near it’s minimum. The Dalton minimum ran from the minimum of cycle 4 to the minimum of cycle 7. Even Layman’s sunspot count does not show cycle 24 nearly as weak as cycle 5 was and besides your going to need to throw in some heavier volcanic activity to get us back to the conditions of the later half of the LIA.

  10. Solar Cycle Points to a Coming Global Cooling – CO2 is Life

    […] Read more: Signs Show Planet Entering A New Dalton Minimum…Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Be Weakest In 200 Year… […]

  11. I segnali mostrano che il nostro pianeta è entrato in un nuovo minimo di Dalton ... Il ciclo solare 24 continua ad essere il più debole da 200 anni! : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: No Tricks Zone […]

  12. Willis Eschenbach

    Your post says:

    Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse write: Signs show the earth is heading into a Dalton Minimum like the one the planet was forced to endure some 200 years ago.

    Since the peak of the solar cycles was in 1950, and the strength of the sunspot cycles has been steadily dropping since then … if the “It’s The Sun, Stupid” meme is true, why haven’t temperatures been dropping for the last sixty years?

    w.

    1. Kenneth Richard

      Since the peak of the solar cycles was in 1950

      According to other solar indices which are not preferred by the IPCC and those who advocate for a negligible role for solar activity, the peak of the solar cycles and the zenith of the Modern Grand Maximum was the year 2000, not 1950. The Modern Grand Maximum only ended recently, with a +3 W m-2 TSI forcing between 1900 and 2000.

      Reconstructions of surface temperatures that are not compromised by artificial, non-climatic heating (i.e., urbanization) show a very clear correlation between TSI forcing and climate for the modern era, including the undulation between the 1950s and 1970s prior to the recent (1980s to late 1990s) increase (as shown by ACRIM data). For example, see here:

      Northern Hemisphere:
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TSI-20th-Century-Northern-Hemisphere-Schneider-2015.jpg

      Northern Hemisphere:
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Soon-Connolly-2015-NH-Temps-and-TSI.jpg

      Northern Hemisphere:
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TSI-20th-Century-Northern-Hemisphere-Christiansen-Ljungqvist-2012.jpg

      Antarctica:
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TSI-20th-Century-Antarctica-Schneider-2006.jpg

      Indian Ocean:
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TSI-20th-Century-Indian-Ocean-Zinke-2016.jpg
      —————————————
      Willson, 2014
      • Comparison of the results from the ACRIM3, SORCE/TIM and SOHO/VIRGO satellite experiments demonstrate the near identical detection of TSI variability on all sub-annual temporal and amplitude scales during the TIM mission. A solar magnetic activity area proxy [developed in 2013] for TSI has been used to demonstrate that the ACRIM TSI composite and its +0.037 %/decade TSI trend during solar cycles 21–23 [1980s-1990s] is the most likely correct representation of the extant satellite TSI database.

      The occurrence of this trend during the last decades of the 20th century supports a more robust contribution of TSI variation to detected global temperature increase during this period than predicted by current climate models.

      • One of the most perplexing issues in the 35 year satellite TSI database is the disagreement among TSI composite time series in decadal trending. The ACRIM and PMOD TSI compostite time series use the ERB and ERBE results, respectively, to bridge the Gap. Decadal trending during solar cycles 21–23 is significant for the ACRIM composite but not for the PMOD. A new [2013] TSI-specific TSI proxy database has been compiled that appears to resolve the issue in favor of the ACRIM composite and trend. The resolution of this issue is important for application of the TSI database in research of climate change and solar physics.

      The ACRIM TSI composite is data driven. It uses ACRIM1, ACRIM2, ACRIM3 and Nimbus7/ERB satellite results published by the experiments’ science teams and the highest cadence and quality ACRIM Gap database, the Nimbus7/ERB, to bridge the ACRIM Gap.

      The PMOD TSI composite, using results from the Nimbus7ERB, SMM/ACRIM1, UARS/ACRIM 2 and SOHO/ VIRGO experiments, is model driven. It conforms TSI results to a solar-proxy model by modifying published ERB and ACRIM results and choosing the sparse, less precise ERBS/ERBE results as the basis for bridging the ACRIM Gap (Frohlich and Lean 1998).

      • The Earth’s climate regime is determined by the total solar irradiance (TSI) and its interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and landmasses. Evidence from 35 years of satellite TSI monitoring and solar activity data has established a paradigm of direct relationship between TSI and solar magnetic activity. (Willson et al. 1981; Willson and Hudson 1991; Willson 1997, 1984; Frohlich and Lean 1998; Scafetta and Willson 2009; Kopp and Lean 2011a, 2011b) This paradigm, together with the satellite record of TSI and proxies of historical climate and solar variability, support the connection between variations of TSI and the Earth’s climate. The upward trend during solar cycles 21–23 coincides with the sustained rise in the global mean temperature anomaly during the last two decades of the 20th century.
      ——————————
      Van Geel and Ziegler, 2013
      [T]he IPCC neglects strong paleo-climatologic evidence for the high sensitivity of the climate system to changes in solar activity. This high climate sensitivity is not alone due to variations in total solar irradiance-related direct solar forcing, but also due to additional, so-called indirect solar forcings. These include solar-related chemical-based UV irradiance-related variations in stratospheric temperatures and galactic cosmic ray-related changes in cloud cover and surface temperatures, as well as ocean oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation that significant affect the climate.

      [T]he cyclical temperature increase of the 20th century coincided with the buildup and culmination of the Grand Solar Maximum that commenced in 1924 and ended in 2008.

      • Since TSI estimates based on proxies are relatively poorly constrained, they vary considerably between authors, such as Wang et al. (2005) and Hoyt and Schatten (1997). There is also considerable disagreement in the interpretation of satellite-derived TSI data between the ACRIM and PMOD groups (Willson and Mordvinov, 2003; Fröhlich, 2009). Assessment of the Sun’s role in climate change depends largely on which model is adopted for the evolution of TSI during the last 100 years (Scafetta and West, 2007; Scafetta, 2009; Scafetta, 2013).

      The ACRIM TSI satellite composite shows that during the last 30 years TSI averaged at 1361 Wm-2, varied during solar cycles 21 to 23 by about 0.9 Wm-2, had increased by 0.45 Wm-2 during cycle 21 to 22 [1980s to late 1990s] to decline again during cycle 23 and the current cycle 24 (Scafetta and Willson, 2009).

      • By contrast, the PMOD TSI satellite composite suggests for the last 30 years an average TSI of 1366, varying between 1365.2 and 1367.0 Wm-2 that declined steadily since 1980 by 0.3 Wm-2.

      • On centennial and longer time scales, differences between TSI estimates become increasingly larger. Wang et al. (2005) and Kopp and Lean (2011) estimate that between 1900 and 1960 TSI increased by about 0.5 Wm-2 and thereafter remained essentially stable, whilst Hoyt and Schatten (1997) combined with the ACRIM data and suggest that TSI increased between 1900 and 2000 by about 3 Wm-2 and was subject to major fluctuations in 1950-1980 (Scafetta, 2013; Scafetta, 2007).

      Similarly, it is variably estimated that during the Maunder Solar Minimum (1645- 1715) of the Little Ice Age TSI may have been only 1.25 Wm-2 lower than at present (Wang et al., 2005; Haig, 2003; Gray et al., 2010; Krivova et al., 2010) or by as much as 6 ± 3 Wm-2 lower than at present (Shapiro et al., 2010; Hoyt and Schatten, 1997), reflecting a TSI increase ranging between 0.09% and 0.5%, respectively.

  13. Sara Sportingbet

    Everything changes, the earth is changing

  14. Chemist

    Maybe the years-long delay in temperature increase from the maximum solar output in the 1950’s is similar to how on earth the maximum temperatures are experienced 2 – 3 hours after high noon, on average. http://nickelblock.com/?p=7763. Instead of 2 – 3 hours after maximum, it’s 2 – 3 decades for the climate patterns to fully change (?). I’m not a climate scientist, just a good study of general patterns I see being duplicated across multiple disciplines.

  15. yonason

    LOL – Rush Limbaugh has them pegged.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJv3RrxPEww

    “If global warming were science, it wouldn’t need a PR campaign”

    In this recent video Tony Heller, exposes yet a few more of the lies.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JroqZ44Plho

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