NTZ contributor and climate observer Matti Vooro provides evidence that the floods of North America are likely linked to cooling, and not warming.
Global Cooling – The Real Cause Behind The Catastrophic North American Floods Of 2011
by Matti Vooro
The Canadian Prairies and the United States North Central regions are experiencing one of the worst flood seasons going back some 350 years, read here, here, here, and here. The reason for these floods is not well reported or researched by our media.
These floods stem from the extreme cold and the significant snow extent that fell in the central North America during the past winter. The very significant initial spring snow melt followed by a cool and very wet spring has resulted in more water than the ground could possibly hold. Some areas are having continuous flooding and have received two floods already and may get a third flood as well from new heavy rainfall.
US And Canadian temperatures have been falling
Unreported by the media are the news that the annual and winter temperatures have been falling over most areas of US and southern Canada [excluding the north] since 1998, and more significantly during the last 4 years [see below]. So how can the floods be due to warming?
Winter temperatures in the USA have been plummeting:
Also in Southern Canada:
Snow extent is also on the rise:
Snow depth in Northern US And Southern Canada in April according to the NOAA:
As winters cool, more snow accumulates, which contributes to flooding. As temperatures cool, how can the flooding be due to warming?
While AGW climate scientists and some world governments are mainly focused on the non-existing global warming, the globe is actually cooling and the impact of this cooling is far greater and more imminent than that of global warming 100 years from now, as these floods clearly illustrate.
This colder and wet weather means that crops cannot be planted and the entire season could be lost for the affected areas. These regions are the bread baskets of the globe and we should all be concerned. Over 1.2 million hectares of farming land may already be lost for farming this year in the Manitoba, and Saskatchewan region alone as recently reported on our news. Similar losses may happen in the United States.
More floods in the future – due to cooling
We are likely to see many more spring floods in the upcoming years like the 2011 floods because the cold winters are returning and could be with us for the next 20-30 years – like we had during the late 1970’s as the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans cool and lose their current heat content. These inland areas of North America are clearly cooling faster than the coastal areas since their climate is not moderated by still warm oceans. This will change in the future as the oceans start to cool and coastal areas will also get colder like Western Europe and Eastern North America.
These events, like the cold and snowy winters, extra flooding and severe tornadoes, have very little to do with man-made carbon dioxide or global warming as the global temperatures have been cooler than normal this winter and the early part of this year, and global and regional temperatures have actually been declining.
The expensive and misguided anti-global warming policies divert valuable funds from other vital areas of our global life, like helping nations who are suffering and experiencing natural disasters, improved flood control, rebuilding homes and infrastructure after tornadoes and major flooding and extra food storage for emergencies as well as job creation, better health care and poverty.
In my judgment this problem could get much worse in the coming years. Like the Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean is also cooling again and by 2015 we could begin to feel even cooler weather during the winter and spring especially along the North American eastern coasts and Western Europe. Food and energy could be in short supply unless we all adjust our national and global focus from a non existing global warming threat to a much bigger and very current threat from global cooling for the next 20-30 years.
In summary, the message of this brief article is that we are totally focused on the wrong weather. The impact of global and regional cooling from our winters is much more severe and immediate than any minor impact of global warming 100 years from now, the effect of which may never materialize. Our limited financial resources are being channeled in the wrong direction with little benefit to the planet or to humanity.
24 responses to “Cooling (Not Warming) Causing Catastrophic North American Floods Of 2011”
The latest severe flooding is currently along the Souris River and involves flooding both in Saskatchewan, Canada and Minot in North Dakota, US. This area is being hit by significant rainfall on top of soil or grounds which were already saturated by the heavy run off from the heavy winter snow .The current flood levels have now exceeded the previous record levels of 1881 and 1969. This extra water will ultimately drain to Manitoba , Canada which will likely flood again for the second or third time . It is no coincidence , that these 3 record floods in the Minot region all happened when we had negative PDO in the Pacific Ocean .
In the past , the most significant Red River region floods in terms of discharge or flow rates [1950m3/sec or more], 14-15 happened during NEGATIVE PDO. See reference for these floods [http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/floods/redriver/table1_e.php]
As there may be an extended[ 20-30 years] NEGATIVE or cool PDO phase, there will be more La Nina’s and associated more snow and cold in the Red River region and the northern US states. More floods are possible. There were 10 floods with flows 1800 m3/sec or more during the last negative phase of the PDO between 1944 and 1976, with 1950 flood being the largest at 3058 m3/sec. Looks like the 2009 and 2011 floods which were spawned under similar negative PDO and near La Nina conditions are the first of those that may yet come under the current negative PDO cycle.Of 20 most significant
I have a feeling that AGW will go the same way as the single european currency. As with the euro, belief in AGW seems political in nature and in Britain at least the abuse is similar. I’m a “Climate change denier” and a “xenophobic little Englander”
The computer models promised us in the UK hot mediterranean summers and mild wet winters
Six inches (15cm) of snow can bring this country to a stop. Although I wasn’t around for it a repeat of the winter of 1963 may prevent the distribution of food to our supermarkets, cause widespread power outages and frozen water pipes
Lost my respect for Attenborough. OPT and partaking in several AGW stunts. File under Malthusian.
I tried to view the BBC video you referenced but my server will not connect. I know the warmist in Uk are pushing the 4 degrees rise by 2060 which implies temperature rises of 0.8 degrees per decade which in turn implies temperature increase of about 20 times greater than recently of 0.044 C/decade and the last 150 years . This is pure nonsense in my opinion.
I don’t know if the rest of the world really appreciates how much cooling has been taking place in North America and especially in the central regions since 1998.In the United States, the EAST NORTH CENTRAL region[region directly west of the Great Lakes] is cooling at the rate of -6.13 F per decade and dropped 10.5 F since 1998. The WEST NORTH CENTRA region dropped at a rate of -5.47 degrees F per decade.
In Canada the Prairie Provinces including the Northwestern Forest [the bread basket of Canada] has seen a temperature departure drops [from the 1948-2011 base] of some 5.6 deg C between 2006 and 2011. Since 1998 of the 11 climate regions of Canada 9 show winter temperatures declining with exception of the far Arctic or far north and the Atlantic Coast
An analysis of winter temperatures between1998 and 2011 for all 9 regions of US shows winter temperatures declining in 8 of the 9 regions and the contiguous US winter temperatures for all of Us declined at -3.14 degrees F per decade .
It is no surprise why many in North America now reject global warming threats as being proposed by IPCC and AGW supporting scientists. The winters were supposed to get warmer. Yet the opposite has been happening now for nearly 13 years.
This article points out the potential for even more floods yet to come in the Canadian and US west coast . A significant snow pack this late in the summer can lead to more floods as well as more moisture laden rain clouds that could saturate the mid west even more .More cold and warm air mixing= risk of more tornadoes.
Matt – far too sensible; how can you expect to be taken seriously?!
Coincidentally, immediately before coming here I was reading this article;
How much longer are the politicians going to continue to pretend that ‘the science is settled’?
And DirkH is right about Attenborough. He’s gone from being everybody’s trusted uncle to being a bit creepy.
Found the founding myth of the Revenge Of Gaia religion.
Trailer: Them! – German title: Formicula.
The value of lost crops in the Canadian Prairie Provinces due to the floods is estimated between $1.5 to 2.5 billion. About 12 to 16% of the Prairie farm land of Saskatchewan and Manitoba could not be farmed because of the floods.
81% of all the farm land in Canada is in the three Prairie Provinces .
Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board, said Tuesday that somewhere between 2.4 million and 3.2 million hectares of farmland will go unseeded in the West, mostly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The Arctic also shows OHC dropping quickly.
Yes, the Arctic Ocean is cooling . I expect the Arctic region to start to cool. AMO to go negative by 2015. Bob Tisdale did a good overview of Ocean Heat Content.See below
Floods in US now threaten 2 nuclear plants
Massive snows and flooding occurred in the Southern Hemisphere last season. Se Australia. A rudimentary analysis, but none-the-less very similar to the Northern Hemisphere this year.
Of curiosity – does anyone have a link of overlays for the jet stream?
Jet stream data
Matti Vooro is correct. Instinctively we associate rains and floods with global warming which puts more moisture in the air and hence more precipitation, but this view is wrong. It is the difference in temperature between sea and land that forms the motor.
When the land is warmer than the sea, winds drive mainly seaward, ‘sucking’ moisture from land to sea, hence droughts. When the sea is warmer than the land, winds blow mainly landward, bringing moisture from the sea to the land.
Snow cover plays a major role because it worsens the cooling of the land but NOT the sea. Hence snow begets more snow.
The graphs above underline clearly what I’ve been saying for a long time now. We’re at the end of a warming period, diving into a rapidly cooling world. But the sea lags behind. So for the moment (one or more decades), the sea will be warmer than the land, which will bring unusually much moisture to the continents IN WINTER. For the summer it is a different story because the land warms faster than the sea.
The summer arrives only when nearly all moisture from the land has dried up. We’ve just come out of an unusually long El Niño which stopped ocean circulation while piling warm water up in the tropics. During this period, the surface of the sea in mid-latitudes, became colder than usual, hence droughts and heatwaves in the past two years IN SUMMER.
Then the oceans began circulating again, which is the on-set of the much longer La Niña. The heap of warm water travelled poleward worsening the already exceptional snowfall of last winter. In the southern summer it caused exceptional rainfall accompanied by tropical cyclones. Thus the beginning of any La Niña is always accompanied with exceptional precipitation at mid-latitudes. After that, the situation becomes more normal again.
All this suggests that we’re just going through a change in climate and that things will eventually come right again, but this may not be true. There still exists the threat of a beginning ice age. That story you will find in Chapter 2 of my climate dissertation:
The CAGW scam/fraud probably would have succeeded, however it was conceived before and defeated by the internet.
“There still exists the threat of a beginning ice age. ”
You used the right term that the “threat” may “exist.” Personally I believe that there will only be a 20-30 year cool cycle like we had from say 1944-1979 . I think that the great Pacific climate shift of 1976 changed world climates permanently and we will not globally have an Ice Age in the near future at this time . Also there is too much heat content in the oceans now that perhaps did not exist prior to the Maunder or Dalton Minimums [ I am speculating here]Having said that however ,regionally [especially inland areas of North America , Asia and eastern Europe] , we could have quite cold conditions and lots of snow like the late 1970’s. North America has already had an early taste of these colder winters during the 2009 and 2011 winters . By 2015 we should see things more clearly as the AMO may also go cool at that time and both PDO and AMO will both be negative or cool, like they were during the period 1964-1976 and cooler global climate existed. Anyway, that is my view of things and yours could be just as valid.
I am grateful for bringing this up because I have real trouble with Pacific Climate Shift, PDO, AMO, and ENSO since these are not founded in science. We see a pattern and give it a name, without any understanding of what causes the pattern. Then we attribute other patterns to it and explain new patterns in terms of the patterns that we do not understand. To me, this is just Voodoo science that prevents us from looking at the real causes.
Niels Bohr: “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”
While I respect your personal opinions and beliefs , the cycles of SST, Enso, PDO and AMO and climate regime changes are well documented and studied in scientific literature . These climate phenomena were around well before any climate scientists arrived on the scene . I agree that we do not know everything about these natural cycles yet and more work is needed to understand them completely. However what we do know can be used to better project future climate possibilities . I personally have done much analysis of these myself and found them helpful in understanding our weather and climate in my neck of the woods.
1) Even though the patterns cannot be explained yet they nevertheless exist.
2) Matti, the coming Grand Minimum is not included in the variations of the PDO etc. in the 20th century. IMHO the cooling will be much worse than anything we saw in the 20th century; best compared with the onset of the Wolf minimum.
You could be right Dirk. I just feel that we should not fall int0 the trap that the warmist did , predicting very worst case warming scenarios only or the panic of the 1970’s when ice ages that never materialized were also predicted as worst case cooling scenarios. My own gut feel and data analysis tells me that things will be cool and some inland areas will be quite cold but not ice age level. My best determination of the global [hadcrut3gl ] temperature anomaly at the next trough period of 2030 will be a trend of around 0 deg C.Isolated years may be below or above this level. We will just have wait for more evidence , in my opinion ,as no one knows with certainity and we are all really putting out our own personal best judgement only.
Professor Easterbrook in his recent article called “Easterbrook on the demise of of sunspots “said
The Maunder Minimum was not the beginning of The Little Ice Age—it actually began about 1300 AD—but it marked perhaps the bitterest part of the cooling. Temperatures dropped ~4º C (~7 º F) in ~20 years in mid-to high latitudes. The colder climate that ensued for several centuries was devastating
I just wanted to draw the readers attention that the temperatures inEAST North Central US [and Canadian Prairies] dropped 10.5 degrees F in only 13 years since 1998. So you don’t need a Maunder Minimum kind of lack of sun spots to get temperatures that far down. We are seeing now and can expect more of this kind of temperaure drops from changes in just SST . The current sun spot numbers are well above those during the Mauander Minimum. Regionally quite different climate is happening and a single global temperature is meaningless and really applies nowhere on the globe
Just a follow up note . Environment Canada just released their 2011 SPRING temperatures in Canada and the data pretty much confirms what I tried to point out in my article above . Here is what they said
“The national average temperature for the spring of 2011 was 0.1°C below normal (1961-1990 average), based on preliminary data, which makes this the 29th coolest spring since nationwide records began in 1948. The warmest was just last year, 4.1°C above normal. The coolest was 1967, 2.0°C below normal.
However the Prairies had the largest below normal temperature among the climate regions, 1.5°C below normal, but that only ranked the spring of 2011 as the 19th coolest Prairies spring.”[out of the last 64 years-my comments]
So Canada’s national 2011 spring temperatures dropped 4.2 deg. C in just one year and the area where the heavy flooding were taking place , the Canadian Prairies, dropped 3.7deg. C. This followed on the heels of a very cold winter and lots of snow . No wonder there were all the flooding and 16-18% loss in areas that could be planted.
Matt Vooro: When you use one of my graphs, please cite the source post at my blog.
I did cite the source of the Atlantic ocean heat content graph as per your web page but in the final posting of this article it was mistakenly dropped . As you can see I do referenced all other graphs which is what I always do . I apolgize.