The Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE)has a piece called: First The IPCC and Now The DWD: Tricked Series With Alleged Warming After the Year 2000. The piece alleges that both the IPCC and the German Weather Service (DWD) are playing it loose with temperature data sets to produce the illusion of global warming for the last 10 years.
First The IPCC and Now The DWD: Tricked Series With Alleged Warming After the Year 2000
By Josef Kowatsch, for EIKE
In February 2007 Working Group I of the IPCC released its Summary for Policymakers (SPM) on the status of the global climate for political leaders. It was already false at the time it was published and it certainly hasn’t gotten more correct since then.
Fig. 1 shows the B1 scenario with a CO2 increase to 600 ppm, A1B to 850 ppm, and the pessimistic A2 of 1250 ppm. The year 2000 scenario illustrates the optimistic case of CO2 remaining stable at 390 ppm.
Although the IPCC computer graphic appears colorful and pretty, it is completely remote of reality, and is a science sham. To explain why, let’s begin by dividing up the graphic in 2 parts.
Part 1: 1900 to 2000
From the year 1900 to 2000, i.e. the left half, this part is made up of real measured data, even if the IPCC does not cite a data source. According to the curve, there is a detectable temperature increase. No one disputes the fact that it has gotten warmer since the end of the Little Ice Age.
Here one has to consider the fact that the global warming was for the most part driven by the urban heat island effect (UHI), which was caused by man over the last 100 years. Measurement stations, which earlier were mostly located outside of built-up areas, are located today in the middle of built-up areas. The thermometer themselves don’t know whether the warmth originates from the climate or from built-up infrastructure, and so they record the error along with the measurement. Out in the open countryside, or out to sea, these temperature increases do not occur.
If one cleans up the temperature records to account for the UHI effect, then the alleged temperature increase becomes much less obvious.
Also see: “Wärmeinseleffekt täuscht Klimaerwärmung vor“ (UHI masquerades as climate warming).
Fig. 2: In the last 100 years, temperatures in Germany have remained more or less the same. There have been warm years and cold years – even decades. We had an increase just before the millenium ended. After 2000 we had a decline.
Part 2, 1900 to 2000
After the year 2000, is the above curve headed for reality? According to the IPCC the C02 concentration increased 15 ppm over the last 10 years. And the temperatures? Contrary to the tricked IPCC curve, they’ve fallen. The curves of the IPCC should have gone downwards. Therefore all 4 shown scenarios are false. In Germany the temperature drop since 2000 is 2°C. This was confirmed by the German Weather Service (DWD) in Offenbach (by E-mail dated 6 September 2010):
…globally 1998 is the warmest year and in Germany it is 2000. That’s no secret, and anyone can know this …“
The real temperature drop is not shown in the IPCC curve from Figure 1. Shown are only the false projections beginning in the year 2000. Neither politicians nor the media (and forget the Umweltbundesamt [German Federal Department of Environment]) have bothered to take the time to examine the data for the IPCC and at the DWD for the years 2000 to 2010, which show average temperatures of:
9.9/ 9.0/ 9.6 / 9.4 / 9.0 / 9.0 / 9.5 / 9.9 / 9.5 / 9.2 / 7.8.°C
This is how the easily duped, like the media and our politicians, become victims of a climate propaganda and then act to further propagate the fantasy of ongoing warming.
From the entire course of the original DWD values, we now consider only the last 12 years.
Fig.3: Original curve of the DWD: The section of the first 6 years up to 2004 is 9.4°C. The section of the following 6 years up to the year 2010 is 9.15°C. Strangely, this curve was on the official DWD website for only a few weeks.
The IPCC is playing around with tricked data. The temperature curve of the IPCC shown in Fig. 1 still keeps popping up in the media. Here the first part of the curve is not correct, and the computer forecast second part is completely false for the first 10 years. Nobody really knows what will happen in the next 10 years. And as far as the year 2050 is concerned, absolutely no one can know.
Josef Kowatsch for EIKE
Translated by P Gosselin