Leibniz Institute Admits Models Have Failed

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Not that is hasn’t been obvious. The Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel reports here that ocean chemist Dr. Christa Marandino and lead a group that will use new, innovative measuring techniques to directly measure the exchange of trace gases between oceans and atmosphere. 

Dr. Marandino wants to fill another gap in climate science and the IPCC models. (Photo credit: J. Steffen, IFM-GEOMAR)

Excerpts of the IFM GEOMAR press release are as follows, with my comments:

It sounds so little. Only 0.04% of the earth’s atmosphere consists of CO2. And yet it is this tiny amount of gas that provides for a greenhouse effect on the earth, makes life possible and with a small change can lead to considerable increasing temperatures on the planet.”

Co2 concentrations have gone up about 110 ppm over the last 150 years, yet the temperature is only up 0.8°C. Much of that temperature increase is traced back to solar activity and ocean cycles. So the above statement is certainly a load of BS. Note how they complete ignore acknowledging water vapour, aerosols, the sun and ocean cycles as climate factors.

Other trace gases include methane, dimethyl sulfide or also acetone. And like CO2, these gases are continuously exchanged between the oceans and the atmosphere. To which scale and speed the exchange occurs is an important factor for atmospheric chemistry, and thus for climate change. Unfortunately there are no measurements for many of these material flows at the boundary between water and air. Mathematical formulas that have been used up to now have proven to be inaccurate in getting values.”

In other words: The models have failed. This is a clear admission that they don’t understand the climate mechanisms and that the science is filled with gaps.

Dr. Christa Marandino of the Leibniz-Institute for Ocean Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) wants to close this gap using a new techniques. The method is called eddy correlation technique. ‘Simply said, one just measures the vertical wind speeds, the changes in gas concentrations and connect the two,’ explains the 35-year old scientist. For CO2 this method is already being used by some work groups worldwide. But for the most trace gases with tiny concentrations, the technical difficulties have been too large so far. The measurements have to be extremely fast and highly precise, and that on a bobbing measurement platform like a research ship.”

Don’t worry about it. I’m sure you’ll find the right correction factors and get the results you need. Anything goes in climate science. The money will always be there.

‘That’s the problem’, explains Dr. Maradino. She has already conducted the first promising attempts with newly developed equipment, an atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry“ (APCI-MS), at the University of California in Irvine. Dr. Marandino has been working in Kiel since 2008 and she wants to tweek the technology more here. The Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Deutscher Forschungszentren (HGF) will support Dr. Marandino beginning January 2012 with the formation of a Helmholtz group. Over the coming 5 years she will receive  €250,000 for her research.”

The press release then ends with the usual “we are very glad to have this young scientist working here” blah blah blah.

I don’t mean to devalue her work here by any means. I’m just surpised to read that even though some insist the science is settled, we hear of yet another admission that it is indeed filled with gaping holes. And that means the IPCC models are discredited.

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8 responses to “Leibniz Institute Admits Models Have Failed”

  1. Rich

    “And yet it is this tiny amount of gas that provides for a greenhouse effect on the earth” This is a mistranslation, surely. This is from a University for heaven’s sake! Those aren’t the sort of people who would stupidly attribute all of the greenhouse effect to Co2, believe me! If I could read German I’m sure I could show you where you went wrong. You probably put “a” where the original had “a small fraction of the”. It’s easily done.

  2. Ike
  3. Ed Caryl

    It’s to bad, really. By the time she’s ready to publish, the game will be over. Her work will end up being an ignored footnote.

  4. DirkH

    USA gives up search for Higgs Boson; closes down Tevatron. Consequence of science budgets being squeezed.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15079119

    But I don’t see any news about CAGW science budgets being squeezed.

  5. DirkH

    New socialist government of Denmark introduces tax for edible fats. Population buys up stocks, empties store shelves.
    http://nachrichten.t-online.de/daenemark-erhebt-steuer-auf-fett/id_50267194/index

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