UPDATE 1: Roger Pielke Jr:
Here is another good example why I have come to view parts of the climate
science research enterprise with a considerable degree of distrust.”
With the IPCC 5th report due to come out in the near future, the order books at hockey stick factories are full.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) offers a complete line…whether you’re looking for sea-ice sticks, temperature sticks, storm frequency sticks, tornado sticks, drought sticks, flood sticks, glacier sticks….you name it, they can craft it.
And all now come with even sharper than ever blade angles. Here’s the latest junk science from the PNAS:
Increase of extreme events in a warming world
Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved September 27, 2011 (received for review February 2, 2011)
We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. Short-term variability thus decreases the number of heat extremes, whereas a climatic warming increases it. For extremes exceeding a predefined threshold, the dependence on the warming trend is highly nonlinear. We further find that the sum of warm plus cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling…continue abstract here.
By the way, the authors conclude that man is responsible for the heat (and not nature or the sun).