UPDATE 1: Roger Pielke Jr:
Here is another good example why I have come to view parts of the climate
science research enterprise with a considerable degree of distrust.”
With the IPCC 5th report due to come out in the near future, the order books at hockey stick factories are full.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) offers a complete line…whether you’re looking for sea-ice sticks, temperature sticks, storm frequency sticks, tornado sticks, drought sticks, flood sticks, glacier sticks….you name it, they can craft it.
And all now come with even sharper than ever blade angles. Here’s the latest junk science from the PNAS:
Increase of extreme events in a warming world
Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved September 27, 2011 (received for review February 2, 2011)
We develop a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our method to study the effect of warming trends on heat records. We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. Short-term variability thus decreases the number of heat extremes, whereas a climatic warming increases it. For extremes exceeding a predefined threshold, the dependence on the warming trend is highly nonlinear. We further find that the sum of warm plus cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling…continue abstract here.
By the way, the authors conclude that man is responsible for the heat (and not nature or the sun).
14 responses to “The Math That Gives You The Result You Want – Every Time!”
could you please comment on how exactly you determined to be this piece “junk science”, and which findings do not stand up to your scientific scrutiny?
Very simple Hartmann,
1. Extremes have always happened in the past – without humans. Today natural factors have stopped working and man has taken over? What Rahmstorf proposes is voodoo and raindancing.
2. If you look at temperatures and the NAO, you see a very close correlation. What happened in Russia was due to “blocking” and that is a natural phenomenon.
3. The USA has seen ZERO hurricanes in 4 years.
4. ACE is down near a record low.
5. Last year Breat Britain had it’s coldest December on record – also manmade?
6. Ireland set an all-time low temperature at -18.7°C – manmade too?
7. One event does not define a climate trend.
Rahmstorf’s science would not even stand up to 3rd grade science, let alone my own.
There is the hypothesis that the drinking water in Berlin is often polluted by lead. Corroborating evidence exists in the form of maps.
You will notice that the other climate-panic centre of Germany, Hamburg, is affected as well.
My statistics show that a causal relationship cannot be ruled out.
“…dependence on the warming trend is highly nonlinear…” In other words: we tell you that not only we cannot predict anything, but that any kind of prediction is categorically impossible. But we KNOW that global warming is getting worse, worser, worst. They do not even have the decency to put that into the next paragraph.
Is this still covered by the word “chuzpah”?
“We find that the number of record-breaking events increases approximately in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term standard deviation. ”
By this logic, the number of record breaking events should also decrease as the global temperatures level off and start to decline and cool .Unfortunately it is not happening as they state since their logic is clearly flawed. Record breaking events are the result of variabilty in the natural natural planetary cycles in terms of magnitude, timing and duration
I would spell it out, call it what it is:
“The Insane Math That Gives You the Result You Want–Every Time”
without the exclamation mark–but I am just a fuddy-duddy scientist, wedded to my bland dispassion for, and disinterest in, everything but the truth (!)
My theory of everything:
Everything works according to the theories prevalent at that time.
Each thing changes in the way it works according to new thoeries introduced with time.
In climate (pseudo)science, today’s climate works according to theories prevalent today, which is anthropogenic and Aussie camel dependent. Tomorrow it could be aliens.
“There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.” (Douglas Adams, of course, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe, 1st sentence).
But where do the anomalies arise from which eventually require Kuhnian paradigm shifts?
He removes UHI adjustment from the Moscow temps record to have a nice warming, starts his analysis in 1911 because that’s a conveniently cool year, and says we needed to make our own definition of trend because a linear trend won’t do.
Fascinating warmist pseudoscience: cherrypicking; using a one-off event (the Moscow blocking high) to make sweeping conclusions; re-adjusting the data; inventing new statistical methodology; it’s all there.
We need people like Stefan to further demolish the standing of AGW science.
Agreed…he’s becoming an asset to the skeptics.
My bet is that the center piece of IPCC5 will be how their version global warming causes extreme weather events . Since their previous theory of global warming has been shown to be completely wrong [ie climate is not warming and oceans are not rising as predicted and man generated greenhouse gases have only minor impact on climate ,if any], they are going to now try to tie their global warming theory to extreme events which happen all the time . It is the only game in town and they are now grasping at last straws. This too will be shown to be wrong as extreme events have happened since the dawn of time . The birth of this planet was an extreme event.
Mission: Hide The Decline
h/t Lubos Motl