Dr. Karsten Brandt is one of Germany’s leading commercial meteorologists and runs www.donnerwetter.de/, which provides forecasting services in the private sector. He often appears as an expert in the German media, see here for example.
At his donnerwetter.de site he recently published an article, which I’ve translated in English with kind permission.
By Dr. Karsten Brandt
Climate change – varying signals
Things are getting tense for the prophets of global warming, or better said: serious. This is because climate models are supposed to reproduce reality. For 25 years there have been “modern climate prognoses from ever more sophisticated calculations and every bigger computers”. In the meantime billions (and perhaps even a trillion) have been spent on climate science. The result: It’s going to get warmer quickly. By 2020 climate change will be especially detectable in the global temperature curve.
But the actual signals are in fact confusing. On one hand numerous temperature records are being broken at weather stations, and on the other hand various data are showing that the temperature trend has stagnated over the last 15 years.
A truly good explanation for this surprise does not exist. In 2007 Donnerwetter.de provided a number of contradictions surrounding the climate prognoses. For example, the danger of storms in Germany was supposed to increase, but nstead the danger of storms in Germany has been on the decline.
Here are our views on climate change from 2007, and they still hold today
After North Sea storm “Kyrill“ struck, one could read and hear everywhere that the weather has gone crazy and that climate change was causing more chaotic and dangerous weather in Germany. But repeating a claim over and over again does not make it correct. Donnerwetter.de Weather Services has therefore put many of the more popular claims to the test.
Fact: Climate is changing, the temperatures have been rising globally, and also in Germany this trend can be clearly seen. It’s also a fact that man has played a large role in this development and thus must continue making efforts to protect the environment. But it is also a fact that the horror scenarios produced for Germany are without any scientific merit:
Claim no. 1: Storms and cyclones are on the rise
The fact is that the number of storms and cyclones over the last few years have been very low from a historical standpoint. Around 1550 about 40 storms were observed each year; that number dropped to around 20 during the 18th century. In the 19th and 20th centuries the number ranged between 10 and 20. The last years have been really quiet. the number of storms dropped considerably, especially after 1995.
Thus claim no. 1 is false!
Claim no. 2: North Sea storm surges are on the rise
Statistics show that the number of storm surges at the German North Sea coast have dropped markedly. After a strong increase in storm surges during the 1940s, it can be observed that they are much less today.
That claim is false as well!
Claim no. 3: Climate change is causing more hurricanes
There are no statements concerning wind climate in the pertinent IPCC publications. In its own publication, re-insurer Munich Re determined that future development is very uncertain. But if the climate prognoses are correct, then westerlies should be weaker, and thus the probability of large storms even declines! Therefore it is incomprehensible how such claims could be made.
The claim is at the very least doubtful.
Claim no. 4; Bad weather (violent thunderstorms/tornadoes) are increasing in Germany
This is also a widespread belief. But it is not supported by any data. To the contrary: the number of days with storms and heavy rains has declined or remained constant at many weather stations since the mid 1990s. Especially in the summertime stormy winds occur only during thunderstorms. One example: in Aachen the number of storm days (wind strength more than 6) from 1990 to 2006 declined to only 2 days per month during this period (that’s 25% less!).
The claim is false!
Claim no. 5: Bad weather (violent thunderstorms/tornadoes) are increasing because of climate change
This is merely suspected in studies by climate scientists, but there is no proof. The data actually point to the contrary.
This claim is doubtful at best.
Claim no. 6: The weather is becoming more chaotic and the atmosphere is “more loaded with energy”
It’s claimed time and again that rising temperatures will lead to greater temperature differences, and therefore will mean higher energy and bad weather potential in the atmosphere. Indeed temperatures in the polar regions are rising faster than in the subtropical regions. But this would point to a decrease in temperature difference, and thus tend to quiet the atmosphere.
That claim is false!
Claim no. 7: The climate has become more variable. Temperatrure fluctuations are greater. You can no longer rely on anything.
In studying the temperature fluctuation range in Germany (standard deviation) since 1756, the exact opposite is true. In the 18th century the standard deviation for the annual mean temperature was 25% higher than today. It dropped steadily until 1920 to today’s level, and has been fluctuating at this level ever since. Thus the weather has not gotten more variable. It used to be much worse.
The claim is false!
Before you think that the author is “naturally” pursuing personal “interests” as a climate skeptic and paid by CO2 polluters, please note that he is merely a small business director who runs a small limited liability company, and is thus perhaps more free to speak up than the representatives of the global climate circus, many of whom we know have made impressive careers and are living very well.
Be skeptical whenever anyone makes 100-year prognoses because no one is able to really forecast the climate. Already in the 1960s a number of climatologists failed with their 100-year forecasts and beyond (ice age prognoses). The climate system is far too complex to allow us to simply make regional forecasts for climate development.
At the Donnerwetter.de Wetterpark in der Eifel, climate change is a big issue. We would be pleased about your visit and a discussion with you.
Photo credit: www.donnerwetter.de/