Haiyan Chaser Rahmstorf Attacks Anthony Watts / Skeptics: “How Quietly Can You Still Sleep At Night?”

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Alarmist Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and contributor at RealClimate has not wasted any time in climate ambulance chasing at his Scilogs site here, trying to get as much mileage as possible out of tropical storm Haiyan.

His piece is predictably titled, “Tropical Storms Are Getting Worse“. What is remarkable in the piece is that he singles out the non-alarmist skeptics who resist climate protection measures and asks them how they are still able to sleep quietly at night.

It’s an emotional outburst.

First his introduction reads as follows:

Tropical storm Haiyan was probably the most powerful recorded that ever struck land since records began. For this reason there have again been many inquiries about the impact of climate change on tropical storms. Here I summarize briefly the following: (1) The most powerful storms have become more frequent in the last deacdes, (2) Models show a further strengthening is expected for the future, and (3) warmer water and sea level rise will worsen the consequences like downpours and storm surges.”

And in typical Rahmstorfian fashion, he proceeds to build his case by selecting only the studies that support his doomsday narrative, and ignores a huge body of science that contradict his claims…SOP.

What I found remarkable was his concluding paragraph at the very end, which is much harsher and provocative than normal, and I think it deserves to be translated in English:

Regrettably those who diminish and downplay climate change are already on the prowl. At the popular ‘climate-skeptic’ website Watts Up With That Haiyan is kind of dismissed as just ‘another over-hyped storm’. Even if the chances that our greenhouse gas emissions worsen such catastrophes are only 50:50, how quietly can those who with all their might resist climate protection measures, and in view of the pictures coming out of the Philippines, still sleep at night?”

Here Rahmstorf blames skeptics in part for the storm disaster in the Philippines. This guy is a scientist?

 

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21 responses to “Haiyan Chaser Rahmstorf Attacks Anthony Watts / Skeptics: “How Quietly Can You Still Sleep At Night?””

  1. Mick J

    Richard Betts of the UK MET Office provided this IPCC position statement and his interpretation at the Bishop Hill blog where the exploitation of this cyclone by Drama Greens is being discussed. His original Bishop Hill post includes a number of links for the sources for some of his statement content and finishes with a summary that will likely interest. 🙂

    Here’s what the IPCC AR5 WG1 report says:

    ” Increases in intense tropical cyclone activity:

    Assessment that changes occurred: Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes, Virtually certain in North Atlantic since 1970

    Assessment of a human contribution to observed changes: Low confidence (but with medium confidence that reduced aerosol forcing over the North Atlantic has contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity there)

    Likelihood of further changes in early 21st century: Low confidence
    Likelihood of further changes in late 21st century: More likely than not (i.e.: >50% to 100%) in the Western North Pacific and North Atlantic”

    (See Table SPM.1 on page SPM-23 – this also gives pointers to the chapter where the discussions underpinning these statements can be found, namely chapters 2, 10, 11 and 14 here.)

    The summary of the discussion in Chapter 14 says:

    “While projections under 21st century greenhouse warming indicate that it is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rainfall rates, there is lower confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity. Still, based on high-resolution modelling studies, the frequency of the most intense storms, which are associated with particularly extensive physical effects, will more likely than not increase substantially in some basins under projected 21st century warming.”

    So basically, it’s quite a complex story, more so than often portrayed in the media and by green campaigners, but the bottom line seems to be that there are grounds to expect the most damaging tropical cyclones to happen more often in a warmer world in the long term (several decades into the future) – but with the smaller warming that has happened so far, any expected changes in tropical cyclones can’t yet be distinguished from natural ups and downs.
    Nov 10, 2013 at 10:37 AM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts”

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/11/9/storms-and-global-warming.html#comments

    1. DirkH

      “but the bottom line seems to be that there are grounds to expect the most damaging tropical cyclones to happen more often in a warmer world”

      But the world ISN’T warmer than 17 years ago!
      Nothing works out. CO2AGW is crackpot science.

      1. Mick J

        Exactly, and why the remainder of that sentence by Richard Betts somewhat challenges the Rahmstorf claims.

        “but with the smaller warming that has happened so far, any expected changes in tropical cyclones can’t yet be distinguished from natural ups and downs.”

        Mick.

  2. DirkH

    A much more interesting question is, when temperatures haven’t risen in 17 years, and nevertheless the strongest storm ever comes about, does this not falsify CO2AGW even more – as it is another event that directly contradicts their theory – how can heat that is hiding in the deep oceans create a mighty storm at the surface? Doesn’t make sense. They don’t even bother to explain causal chains anymore. Magical teleconnection?

    1. John B

      There’s no doubt this was a strong storm DirkH but it was not the strongest in terms of wind speed. Made the top ten of recorded storms which is a very short record in geological terms.

      Apart from that agree totally with your comment.

  3. Mindert Eiting

    If this is part of the climate extremes tale, we may expect besides the most severe storm since records began also the calmest weather since records began, for which the skeptics should also be held responsible. Exploiting the misery of people who fell victim to natural disasters, seems to have become an integral part of climate science.

  4. Loodt Pretorius

    Q: How can you quietly sleep at night?

    A: Easy, use a hot water bottle, it is more carbon friendly than an electric blanket.

  5. Edmh

    Could it be that Tropical storm Haiyan is in fact a symptom of a cooling world ?

    Global Warming advocates only ever propose solutions for the control of Global Warming, (overheating), by reducing CO2 emissions. However at present the climate appears to changing to a colder phase, probably because of reducing solar activity and changes of ocean circulation patterns.

    Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates fail to explain how reduction of man-made atmospheric CO2 can ever can help to control Climate Change towards a cooling world.

    Having made so many dire predictions of the impending adverse climate catastrophes from overheating, Global Warming / Climate Change advocates fail to accept that a climate change towards a cooler climate is more likely to lead to more intense adverse weather.

    However there is good reason to expect this, simply because the energy differential between the poles and the tropics is bound to be greater in a cooling world and that in itself leads to less stable atmospheric conditions.

    It has been shown in the past that the warmer climate in the Roman and Medieval warm periods, now once again recognised by the IPCC, was more conducive to the wellbeing of the biosphere and of man-kind.

    If it were to get somewhat warmer, the world could well adapt to having larger areas for a more productive agriculture, better fertilised by CO2.

    But it does not seem to be doing that in 2013.

    1. DirkH

      You’re right. Atmosphere cools faster than oceans when cooling phase begins, leading to a time during which the energy differential is higher than normal.

      1. Casper

        The storms are powered by…difference of temperature! If the GW or GC really occurs – it is an another question…

  6. Henning Nielsen

    This is typical of people who are losing both the scentific discussion and their grip on reality. The idea seems to be to get some kind of moral superiority, in order to feel “holier-than-thou”.

    When science and reality turn their backs on them, what else than moralism is left to the alarmists? The ugly tone is born of despair.

    But how much has Rahmsdorf contributed to helping the victims? Watts very quickly set up a link to an aid website on his blog, and encouraged all readers to give their share, as he did. Not least because his wife’s family is from the Philippenes.

    This kind of smearing campaign is really embarrassing, and Mr. Rahmsdorf should remember that it will not be forgotten, and that his reputation will suffer accordingly.

  7. Casper

    Ladies and Gentlemen,

    The COP19 has already begun, and it’s a showtime!!!
    Polish Minister of Environment Marcin Korolec conducted an inauguration of the COP19 in the capital of Poland – Warsaw. Today, we also celebrate our Independence Day, and there will be 11 demonstrations in the city.

    See the entire reports here:
    http://energetyka.wnp.pl/szczyt-klimatyczny-cop19-w-warszawie-rozpoczety,210955_1_0_0.html
    http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-z-kraju,3/polska-swietuje-swoja-niepodleglosc,370560.html

    1. DirkH

      From the first link, google translated:
      “”We are the first beings of the human species that breathe air with CO2 above 400 ppm (parts per million),” ”

      She’s never been indoors? LOL.

      1. Casper

        Yes, indeed. You meant that phrase:

        “Jesteśmy pierwszymi istotami z gatunku ludzkiego, które oddychają powietrzem o zawartości CO2 powyżej 400 ppm (części na milion)” – mówiła z kolei Sekretarz Generalny Ramowej Konwencji ONZ ws. Zmian Klimatycznych Christiana Figueres. Przypomniała tajfun, który szaleje obecnie nad Azją Południowo-Wschodnią. “A dopiero zaczynamy doświadczać efektów zmian klimatycznych” – podkreśliła. “

      2. Loodt Pretorius

        Or on a submarine, theater, long-distance flight, in a car in winter, or fried some chips in the kitchen!

      3. Casper

        Police had to use rubber bullets and pepper spray to disperse a crowd of violent Polish nationalist demonstrators during an Independence Day march in Warsaw. Besieged Russian embassy officials say the building was pelted with firecrackers and bottles.

        Officers in riot gear formed a cordon around the building, as young shaven-headed demonstrators waving red-and-white flags tried to push through. The crowd shouted slogans directed against Russia, Poland’s eastern neighbor, which the demonstrators blamed for World War II atrocities and occupation during the Soviet era.

        Several men managed to burst through the police cordon. They attempted to clamber up on the embassy’s walls and tried to set the guard’s post on fire.
        http://rt.com/news/poland-protest-russia-nationalists-551/

        A new frustrated young generation is growing in Poland, but no one of politician controls them!

  8. BobW in NC

    Bjørn Lomborg writing in Anthony Watts’ WUWT* notes this particular point, too:

    “Yet, even *after* Haiyan, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of all cyclones in the Western North Pacific is below normal (99%, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php). The global ACE is at 74%.”

    Got it? BELOW normal.

    *http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/10/bjorn-lomborg-on-haiyanyolanda/

  9. DirkH

    The stupid interviewing the evil; or maybe the other way round, can’t tell –
    Klima Kommissar Konnie Heedegaard: Still crazy after all these years.
    Interviewer and interviewed pretend there’s still Global Warming; and that Klimate Science isn’t discredited beyond repair.
    http://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2013-11/connie-hedegaard-klimapolitik-energiewende/seite-1

  10. Jimbo

    Rahmstorf should know better. He is a Climastrologist feeding climate calamity to the Presstitutes. 🙂

    Here are the facts.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/11/some-historical-perspectives-on-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/

  11. Nya religioner kräver nya undergångsberättelser | Fröjdhpunktse

    […] och död i sina spår. Det dröjde inte heller länge förrän framstående profeter, som Stefan Rahmstorf på Potsdamuniversitet – för övrigt en av dem som regeringens klimatrådgivare Johan Rockström […]

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