New Paper Finds That Even Seismic Activity Correlates Better With Warming Than CO2!

The correlation between seismic activity (geothermal flux) as a natural mechanism in the 1979 to 2015 global warming is stronger than the correlation with carbon dioxide during the same period.

Hat-tip: Kenneth Richard

Viterito, 2016

The Correlation Of Seismic Activity And Recent Global Warming

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states with high confidence that the warming of global temperatures since 1901 has been driven by increased radiative forcing. The gases responsible for this enhanced forcing are ‘greenhouse gases’ of anthropogenic origin, and include carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change has challenged these findings and concludes that the forcing from greenhouse gases is minimal and diminishing. They add that modelling attempts of past and future climate states are inaccurate and do not incorporate important solar inputs, such as magnetic strength and total irradiance. One geophysical variable that has been overlooked by both groups is geothermal flux.

This study will show that increasing seismic activity for the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA), an indicator of increasing geothermal forcing, is highly correlated with average global temperatures from 1979 to 2015 (r = 0.785). By comparison, the correlation between carbon dioxide loading and global temperatures for the same period is lower (r = 0.739). Multiple regression indicates that HGFA seismicity is a significant predictor of global temperatures (P < 0.05), but carbon dioxide concentrations do not significantly improve the explained variance (P > 0.1). A compelling case for geothermal forcing lies in the fact that 1) geothermal heat can trigger thermobaric convection and strengthen oceanic overturning, important mechanisms for transferring ocean heat to the overlying atmosphere, and 2) seismic activity is the leading indicator, while global temperature is the laggard.

The paper concludes that the world should wait until all of the climate system is understood before enacting laws to curb GHG emissions:

To ameliorate the problems of rising global temperatures, legislative and taxing initiatives are currently being proposed and evaluated by governing bodies around the world. Most of these initiatives are designed to curb GHG emissions. However, this study shows that we may want to delay such actions until all of the climate system’s inputs are fully accounted for.”


19 responses to “New Paper Finds That Even Seismic Activity Correlates Better With Warming Than CO2!”

  1. Kurt in Switzerland

    Fascinating, particularly the correlation with the big spike in the late 1990s.
    I wonder if Viterito has to watch his backside now.

    Michael Mann would likely blow a gasket if shown this.

    1. yonason

      “Michael Mann would likely blow a gasket if shown this.” – Kurt in Switzerland

      He blows a gasket whenever anyone shows how worthless his junk-science is.

  2. Jamie

    If the warmists were really concerned about the degradation of the biosphere and the end of civilization due to CO2, they would welcome new theories regarding weather, excited about correlations such as those discussed above. If future climate is so dangerous, the warmists almost have an ethical responsibility to perform impeccable research and to consider all potential predictive variables. After all, the civilization is at stake!

    In reality they act like angry children when new data is presented to them that upsets their simplistic carbon models. They don’t really care about the future of climate, just the defense of their own ego and the shoddy biased predictive models they push on the public as ‘settled science.’

  3. cementafriend

    I think it would be interesting to look at volcanic activity in El Nino periods rather than look at a correlation with adjusted (manipulated ) temperature records.
    There were a number of volcanos with loss of life in the period 1902 to 1912 which had at least one El Nino and was a dry period in Australia called the Federation drought. Around 1982 was a major El Nino and a number of volcanoes including Mt St Helens (1980) and El Chichon (1982). Maybe some major volcanic activity will occur this year through the next two years.

  4. AndyG55

    “New Paper Finds That Even Seismic Activity Correlates Better With Warming Than CO2!”

    WOW, that’s a bit of a shock! 😉

  5. Mary lou

    It has been my political rather than scientific observation that the global warming alarmists don’t apparently take their warning very seriously as they do not adjust their personal behavior to the extreme as they suggest is necessary to reverse their projected doom.

  6. JackMStarr

    But how can the government justify tax increases if GW is not (A)GW? It has to be caused by human activity or they could shut down half of all government… Just saying….

  7. John F. Hultquist

    There have been reports of a global warming pause/hiatus. Has there been a similar pause in seismic activity?

    Guatemala’s Santiaguito volcano erupts! [An AccuWeather video on June 20th.]

    1. Art Viterito

      Excellent question, and yes, there has been. My paper shows the frequencies of seismic activity in the globe’s high geothermal flux areas and you can see that there was a huge surge in frequencies in 1996-1997, followed by a long hiatus up to 2013( Interestingly, there was a significant “bump up” in activity in 2013-2014, and that surge corresponds to the El Nino amplification we’re currently experiencing.

      1. AndyG55

        There were some reports that the NE Pacific “heat blob” could have been related to sub-ocean volcanic activity.

        That blob almost certainly cause a significant percentage of the El Nino effect.

  8. Joseph Olson

    I met Dr Viterito at ICCC-9 in Vegas, July 2014 and reviewed his excellent research. There has been a rigged, three sided FAKE debate, see

    “Lukewarm Lemmings and the Lysenko Larceny”…. share Truth….

  9. Aphan

    John F. Hultquist,

    I think you missed a few more questions:

    Has there been a similar “pause” in CO2 emissions?

    How long, detailed,and global are seismic records?

    The oceans cover 70% of the planet. Having only really explored 10% of the ocean floor, and marine scientists being shocked at the geothermal activity they have discovered so far, is it not possible that as exploration expands, that the correlation between geothermal forcing and temp increases will become tighter and tighter?

    1. Art Viterito

      There has been no “pause” in CO2 emissions, just a monotonic increase since the mid 1800s. There has been a global seismic network in place since the early 1970’s. Beginning in 1986, the network was expanded and upgraded to broadband seismographs. At the time of the mid ’90s surge, there were over 100 broadband instruments in place around the globe.

  10. Art Viterito

    There has been no corresponding pause in CO2 emissions, just a steady, unrelenting climb since the mid 1800’s. As for seismic information, there has been a global seismic network in place sine the early 1970’s. The network has been since upgraded and expanded, and that work began in the mid 1980s, as old analog seismographs have been replaced with digital, broadband equipment. At the time of the surge in the mid 90’s, there were over 100 high quality, broadband instruments in place around the globe.

  11. AndyG55

    I wonder just how much sub-oceanic volcanic action does contribute to ocean warming.

    We know it can cause issues in the West Antarctic Peninsular area.

    Land based volcanic heat escapes via the normal convection channels, but sea based volcanic heat can only escape by heating up the oceans first.

  12. Art Viterito

    As my study points out, the High Geothermal Flux Area (HGFA) seismicity perfectly predicted the 1997/1998 El Nino amplification, and has now predicted the 2015/2016 amplification. If you examine the seismic frequencies from the HGFA sample in my study, you see the huge jump in seismic activity in 1995/1996, and again in 2013/2014. This is a lagged phenomenon, with a two year lag period.

    Year HGFA
    1979 221
    1980 189
    1981 203
    1982 229
    1983 249
    1984 223
    1985 292
    1986 246
    1987 196
    1988 273
    1989 315
    1990 239
    1991 252
    1992 199
    1993 213
    1994 189
    1995 363
    1996 603
    1997 631
    1998 459
    1999 518
    2000 487
    2001 608
    2002 578
    2003 619
    2004 613
    2005 549
    2006 622
    2007 624
    2008 590
    2009 577
    2010 600
    2011 648
    2012 571
    2013 722
    2014 822
    2015 674
    2016 (Proj) 566

  13. John

    You forget fracking! The increased seismic activity is obviously caused by fracking. In the oil companies’ drive for more fossil fuels they are going to shake the world apart from below while they burn it up from above.

  14. Art Viterito

    The study only looks at earthquake activity on the mid-ocean ridges. There is absolutely no fracking activity in these areas.

    1. yonason

      We were warned about this as early as the 50’s about the shaking:
      and the burning:

      We only have ourselves to blame for allowing it to happen. //s//

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