German flagship national daily Die Welt has a commentary by Daniel Wetzel on a new report just released in Berlin by Greenpeace Energy, which outlines what Germany needs to do in order to fulfill the Paris Treaty.
“Unrecognizable in just a few years”
So profound would be the ramifications of doing what is necessary to fulfill the Paris Treaty that Wetzel is left with no option but to label it as the “absurd excrescence of climate protection“.
He writes that if carried out, Germany would be “unrecognizable in just a few years“. In other words, following Paris is pure economic lunacy.
For example the Greenpeace Energy report writes that in order for Germany to meet its Paris Treaty targets, the country would have to completely end its production of vehicles with gasoline and diesel engines by the year 2025, and electrify important freight routes and German autobahns, and of course the entire bus and freight traffic industry in the shortest time. Wetzel writes that it would mean the end of the internal combustion in less than a decade, with no planned alternative for replacement in sight.
What that would mean for the German automotive industry, the very backbone of its economy, the country’s competitiveness, jobs and location as a place to do business, Wetzel writes: “The study does not look into it.”
In Germany one of every 6 jobs is connected to the automotive industry.
Cost? Too high to calculate
On that one point, which concerns transportation, Wetzel writes: “Concepts and cost estimates for this are not yet available.”
Gas and oil heating ban by 2020
Implementing the Paris Treaty to the letter would not only have profound consequences for the transport sector, but also for Germany’s other primary major energy consumer: heating. According to the Greenpeace Energy Report, “Because the product lifetime cycle for heating systems is up to 20 years, it is necessary to ban the installation of new gas and oil heating systems beginning in the year 2020 in order to achieve full decarbonization by 2040“.
Wetzel writes: “German furnace manufacturers would have to stop production immediately.”
To accomplish the aimed decarbonization, Wetzel tells readers that Germany would need to increase its current green energy generation capacity some five fold, according to the study, from 600 terawatt-hours to 3120 terawatt-hours by 2040.
Wetzel criticizes Germany’s Energiewende, claiming that a number of highly naïve projections were used earlier to convince the public that somehow it would all work out. For example in 2010, Germany expected to cut electricity demand some 10% by 2020 when in fact electricity consumption has not been cut back at all – despite three recent relatively mild winters.
To replace Germany’s current fossil fuels with green energy, Wetzel writes that the Greenpeace Energy estimates it will be necessary to increase the current number of wind turbines in operation in Germany from 26,000 today to some 80,000 over the coming years! Yet, anyone who knows the public’s current sentiment with respect to littering the landscape with industrial turbines will tell you that this is all pie in the sky.
Already one German state, Bavaria, has made the permitting of new turbines practically impossible.
Already we see the huge widening chasm between the Greens’ demands and reality – making us wonder if they are still in touch. Undeterred and seemingly immune to rationality, they continue clinging to the decarbonization vision despite its growingly apparent absurdity.
Already Germany has put itself on the path to NOT MEETING the Paris climate targets and by a very long shot. The country’s new energy feed-in act scales back (and certainly does not five-fold) the installation of new renewable energy installations in the future, Wetzel points out.
Already the requirements for fulfilling Paris outlined in the Greenpeace Energy report are rendered dustbin material. Yet the Greenpeace Energy report insists that wind and solar energy installations must be ramped up six fold, and even call for consumers to subsidize it all. Currently, Wetzel writes, Germans are already paying 25 billion euros annually in feed in support.
CO2 emissions, by the way, have not fallen in 7 years, some 175 billion euros later. That even goes beyond “absurd”.