Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne
A new study by German GFZ research institute finds that extreme climate change also happened in the past before humans began emitting CO2 in to the atmosphere. What follows is the press release (emphasis added).
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Strong fluctuations in lake level reconstructed for Northern Germany
The lake level of the Großer Fürstenseer See in Neustrelitz (Mueritz National Park) fluctuated by a total of 8 meters in the past 10,000 years (photo: E. Dietze, GFZ).
27.06.2016: Over the past decades, the water level for lakes of the Northern German Lowland dropped in many places. This was often caused by human activities like the draining of soils for agriculture or settlements. A study of scientists from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences now shows that there were much more drastic changes in lake levels occurring over the past thousands of years, especially before humans started to have an impact on the water cycle.
Research at “Großer Fürstenseer See“ at Neustrelitz (Müritz National Park) shows ups and downs in lake level of about four meters in either direction over the past 10,000 years. To compare: Since the 1980s the lake level lowered for about 1.30 meters. “In only a few millenia the lake area dropped by half or was threefold increased compared to todays extent”, explains first author of the study Dr. Elisabeth Dietze from the GFZ.
The study is published in the current edition of the scientific journal BOREAS.
For the study, scientists from the virtual German-Polish research Institute ICLEA investigated the lake taking samples from the sediment and using echo-sounding following a transect through the lake and compared the results with recent investigations of lake level changes. Their reconstructions of the lake level showed that a peak was reached about 5,000 years ago with a lake level of four meters above todays level. In contrast, about 6,400 to 9,700 years ago the lake level was about three to four meters lower than today.
A possible explanation may be a combination of climate change and changes in forest structure the scientists suggest. The early Holocene pine forests (the first forests after the ice age) had a high demand in water with a negative impact on groundwater recharge. In contrast subsequent deciduous forests contributed to groundwater recharge, e.g. by an increased trunk flow. This is also true for today, the GFZ hydrologists indicated. Because of a more humid middle and late Holocene the lake levels remained relatively high throughout the past 4,000 years. They were only impacted by humans since medieval times. Analyses of instrumental investigations from the region of the past 40 to 60 years indicate variations in climate as the main driving force: Precipitation deficits cause local lowering of groundwater tables. However, there are also significant correlations with forest structure, a study from 2012 by colleagues from the Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (Müncheberg) showed. Implications for the future are that more severe variations in lake level than detected so far can be expected. These will however not only be forced by climate change but also by future forest structure in the national park.
“The new results show that changes in regional water cycle can be quite massive if one considers not only hundred but 10,000 years”, Ingo Heinrich says. He coordinates the regional observatory “TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories – Northern German Lowland” (TERENO Nord-Ost). This platform was initiated to investigate local changes in water cycles and to better understand the impact of global change on regional scale.
Dietze, E., Słowiński,M., Zawiska, I., Veh, G., Brauer, A., 2016. Multiple drivers of Holocene lake level changes at a lowland lake in northeastern Germany. BOREAS. doi: 10.1111/bor.12190
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But they can’t get the correct answer if they are not following the correct AGW process.
All they need to show is how the alarmingly huge amount of lake shrinkage or enlargement from the homogenized normal level will be, due to humans burning fossil fuels, by 2030!
un·prec·e·dent·ed
ˌənˈpresədən(t)əd/
adjective
adjective: unprecedented
_____never done or known before.
I.e., it hasn’t happened since sod woke up this morning.
Of course, for those who are able to discover what happened before they woke up, it’s a somewhat different story, as this NTZ flashback illustrates.
https://notrickszone.com/2014/07/02/spiegel-europes-gigantic-catastrophe-happened-in-1540-when-co2-was-30-less-than-today/#sthash.TgaIi2Br.dpbs
see also here
http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/3264
For getting a research grant, you should look in your environment for something that did change or may change, as it is difficult to explain a constant by climate change. Next, the change should be judged as good or bad. If you park your car in Amsterdam now, you may find it back at the end of the day without all windows crashed. The number of heroin junks here dropped dramatically over the past thirty years. Because this is good, it cannot have been be caused by climate change. Make sure that the change is for the worse in the eyes of your benefactor, which may be the EU. That today twenty thousand snowflakes demonstrate in London against a democratic result, is not worth subsidized research. Note the power of the word ‘may’. With a computer model we can create unprecedented change for the worse in the time before us, which will be caused by climate change. Bingo.
Good thing we have scruples, or we could have made a fortune milking that cash cow.
But if the scam is, seems to be the case, nearing the end of it’s useful life expectancy, then we have waited far too long. Jumping on the gravy train now might not be very profitable. And that too is a good thing, so it probably isn’t caused by climate change, either.
Of course we might still succeed if we spin it as how climate change negatively impacts the careers of dishonest scientists. Hmmm, that proposal may need a rewrite to be effective, though.
Thanks for the reference to this.
I like to see the results of such field work.
I’ve a friend that studies lake sediments to help understand the fire-history of regions. Charcoal and pollen, cm. by cm., as deep into the sediment (hope for the bottom) as she and her students can get. Her recent work is in the Cascade Range of Washington State, mostly on the eastern (dry, fire-prone) slopes. She, and others, have done cores in Mt. Rainier National Park — the only well known place, but many others also.
I’ll send her the link.
In addition to the link Pierre provides, perhaps this may also be of interest.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwix2MucrfLNAhVS8WMKHdCiBW0Q5TUICQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsfa513699b7677fea.jimcontent.com%2Fdownload%2Fversion%2F1440931427%2Fmodule%2F8467641250%2Fname%2FFuM4-A2.pdf&psig=AFQjCNHuvJuWY54p32RxKN2ZpwFWU4vNeA&ust=1468564906469731&cad=rjt
It appears to be by a different author, and has some interesting graphics to illustrate the data.