Over the recent days we’ve been hearing about record snowfall in Montana, record low temperatures in Minnesota and Ontario, New York City “blowing away” a 103-year old record, vicious cold gripping Lebanon, PA. Moreover, Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice have surprised climatologists with a comeback over the past year.
UPDATE: And now the UK braces for 3 weeks of unusual cold.
What is more, the NOAA has just officially announced the return of the La Niña, after earlier this year an El Niño had been forecast instead.
“Gangbusters cold” in the works
And lately we’ve been hearing a number of meteorologists warning of a harsh coming winter for both Europe and USA.
At his Friday Daily Update, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi warns of a “fierce cold” being on the table for this winter for the United States. Bastardi says he does not believe the US climate models at all, and instead could even be as harsh of the notoriously cold 2013 winter.
Bastardi believes the month of December will in fact turn out to be the opposite of what was projected by the US weather models, which foresaw a warm December. See his latest Saturday Summary at Weatherbell.
In his Friday Daily Update Bastardi thinks the cold will be “gangbusters” and that there is a real chance for a “December to remember”. All in all, the Pennsylvania State University meteorologist sees an excellent ski season in the works for the USA.
-40°C for Christmas In Central Europe?
Over in Europe, there have been a growing number of warnings of a “winter of the century“. For example the German nachrichten.de here reports Christmas temperatures of -40°C!
Naturally such forecasts need to be viewed with great skepticism as they are highly speculative. Long-term prediction methods may indicate which way a winter is tending, but I wouldn’t believe any forecast 6 to 8 weeks out.
Nachrichten.de cites information from the Augsburg Meteorological Institute and the Hamburg Weather Warning station. The Federal Office for Weather Observations advises citizens “to prepare for an ice cold Christmas.”“Snowmageddon”?
The express.co.uk warns of a “SNOWMAGEDDON”, thanks to a La Niña bringing a “Big Freeze”. The express.so.uk writes that “winter weather 2017 is set to be the harshest for years“.
For the winter of 2017/2018 the PDO will bring a winter of deadly blizzards and killer freezes as a perfect storm of catastrophic weather systems gather. Analytical meteorologist Tyler Sotock suggested America was facing Snowmaggedon. And spokesman for another YouTube weather channel Hurricane and Winter Tracker warned of chaos.”
While wild speculation swirls, one thing seems certain: just as Joe Bastardi shows at his Saturday Summary, the US forecasts of a warm November/December period across Canada and the US East are looking more flawed than ever.
19 responses to “While Record Cold Grips North America, Meteorologists Forecasting Severe 2017/18 Winter For US / Europe”
If you understand the ocean, you understand the global climate, no need for CO2 at all.
Understand the Oceans, Understand the Climate, NO CO2 Needed
How to Discuss Global Warming with a “Climate Alarmist.” Scientific Talking Points to Win the Debate.
It won’t make headlines. Record cold weather is just weather. Only a hot weather qualifies as climate.
At this website is a running tabulation of cold and snow events that are out of the ordinary.
Headline examples,each one is a link:
Lebanon shatters record-low temperature record
Record Montana Snowfall
Forecasts call for record cold from Boston to D.C.
Minnesota – New all-time state record low
Cold records crushed in Minnesota 2nd day in a row
New York City breaks 103-year-old cold record
These are yesterdays headlines,here is the link to them and more,
CG You are forgetting that Holdren went on US TV to explain how the polar vortex is entirely consistent with global warming. If the winter this year is brutal, they will simply attribute it to CO2 and keep the idiocy going. I would like to think that the folks would call it BS. Cold is cold – warm is warm.
However what the misanthropic Holdren failed to point out was how bad the climate (and weather) models are at being able to predict polar vortex movements. Indeed as the Joe Bastardi video shows the CFS and NOAA prediction of the coming winter temperatures are at odds with what experience imply (in the form of analog analysis of past weather conditions in relation to such things as weather events[like hurricanes season numbers, El Nino/La Nina strength, AMO/PDO/etc.], as well as solar cycle effects, and known cyclical climate changes).
Part of the disjunction is caused by the model’s erroneous placement of the polar vortex, as well as errors in other effects like regional humidity and precipitation probabilities. All of these intrinsic model errors are known and fretted over by the modelers. That is because the basic physics of weather and climate are not completely known, and the the models have too many guesstimates and fudge factors built in.
The science is not settled, it is barely understood at all.
If anyone thinks I’m being too harsh on the models, and they know better how these weather and climate models work please answers these simple question…
Using just modeled output —
1. Weather for next year — what day will be the hottest day in Bonn, within +/- 1 day.
2. Climate – what year in the coming 15 years will Europe experience the highest rainfall, within +/- 6 months
When any of the models can answer those questions consistently year on year for at least a decade then I will concede that we understand the weather and climate. Until then it’s just inaccurate climate horoscope predicting.
IMO a loopy jet stream which is what brings the dreaded “polar vortex” down to us is better associated with weak solar activity. The sun has been spotless with low activity for 18 of the last 30 days.
La Nina conditions also correlate well with harder winters in the NE US and Western Europe but we officially went into a weak La Nina condition just this last week.
Anyway it looks likes this Hoosier has the best shot at having a white Christmas than he has in the several previous years.
It could be a good idea to ask Holdren and his fellow crusaders which variations of temperature and weather conditions that are NOT caused by human co2 emissions. It should be a short list.
Two possible responses:
1) “Move along folks, nothing to see here.”
2) “We predicted this all along, the models all said the polar vortex would become crazy and drive weather chaos south.”
We here in central Washington State are ignored by those trying to predict the weather. Just as well, I guess. State government is into cAGW big time and stupendously stupid about how Earth works – channels Moonbeam Brown of CA.
So, we’ll get back to you on December 26th.
100 miles south of us is Oregon, but close enough to warrant interest:
From Pete Parsons in Oregon who uses analog-years to anticipate what may happen in his State:
“The analog years showed considerable variation, especially in temperature. While extremely cold and snowy weather is possible, the analog years only experienced brief intrusions of moderately-cold Arctic air and limited valley snow. At least one surge of Arctic air will likely make it into the state, between mid-December and the end of January, but overall temperatures are unlikely to be as cold as they were last winter.”
**Meteorologist for Oregon Department of Forestry
Moreover, Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice have surprised climatologists with a comeback over the past year.”
Weather is always a surprise for those climatologists, and it is allways worse than they thaught, unfortunately they never tell what they thaught at first.
If it gets cold it is worse, and if it gets hot it is worse, you can allways find something that makes the weather changes worse than otherwise.
What kind of weather would a climatologist concider as normal and not alarming, or maybe even beneficial?
Climate “science” ceased to be a science some years ago.
Now it is a refuge for con artists, rent seekers, communists and the mentally ill.
At Pen State I wonder if Bastardi and Mann have had a chat?
I doubt it since Mann avoids situations where knowledgeable people can clean his clock.
But recently Joe did get a chance to take on one of Mann’s claims in the press and nailed him good.
“At Penn State I wonder if Bastardi and Mann have had a chat?”
Apparently, Mike hides in his 4th floor office in a somewhat paranoid state, keeping a low profile. Joe was a regular on 6th floor weather center pre-internet days.
Might be a fun elevator ride in Walker Building. If it came to blows, Bastardi is a beast…would crush little Mike. I would drop big bucks if it was on pay-per-view.
I’ve heard Bastardi speak fondly of when he was on the wrestling team, so yeah, Mann would do well to avoid any physical confrontation. And he’s no slacker in the gray muscle department, either. Mann is outclassed in every way.
And yet, 2017 is predicted to be the warmest non El Nino year since measurements started and will be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year ever recorded: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DONVDChU8AAIIkZ.jpg
Oh, and in October Greenland was unusually warm: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/surface-air-2
Skeptics jumping at short cold intermezzos and predicting the next ice age … not a bit better than alarmists crying for runaway greenhouse warming after a hot week in summer.
Joe Bastardi always forecasts a cold and snowy winter. Half the time, he is right. Joe’s a great guy, but he can’t help himself. He loves snowstorms.
A new study led by the Georgia Institute of Technology provides further evidence of a relationship between melting ice in the Arctic regions and widespread cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. The study’s findings could be used to improve seasonal forecasting of snow and temperature anomalies across northern continents.
Since the level of Arctic sea ice set a new record low in 2007, significantly above-normal winter snow cover has been seen in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China. During the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, the Northern Hemisphere measured its second and third largest snow cover levels on record.
“Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation,” said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. “The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents.”
The study was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The research was supported by NASA and the National Science Foundation.
Two other studies reached similar conclusions.
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes,” Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.
Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595