By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated by P Gosselin)
At the end of the year, it’s usual to take a look back. That’s what we wish to do at this blog.
Leading German climate scientist Mojib Latif made three historical statements in 2012 that are worth remembering. How much truth was there in his statements of that time?
Mojib Latif on December 4, 2012 in the talkshow “Pelzig hält sich”:
I want to say one thing again. I would be glad if it were the sun. Then we really could do nothing. Yes. But it is not that. If you look at the sun’s radiation, the sun has been weaker for 50 years. And how is a weakening sun supposed to cause massive warming?”
False. The sun has actually become stronger in the last 50 years when one considers the total solar irradiance (TSI – white curve in the diagram), which also includes cosmic rays and the solar magnetic field.
Figure: Development of solar activity over the past 400 years. White curve shows total solar irradiance (TSI), yellow peaks mark sunspots. Source: PAGES2K website, downloaded in 2016.
Mojib Latif on December 4, 2012, in the talkshow “Pelzig hält sich“:
Yes, you can quantify everything. That is, of course, a plain lie if it is claimed that we do not take the sun into account. There is no climate model that does not take the sun into account. I do not think we are fools. This somehow gives the impression that we are the biggest idiots of all time. It’s not like that.”
False, Mr. Latif. A look at the radiation drive in the 5th IPCC Climate Report is enough to see that the sun plays almost no role in the models. CO2: 1.68 W/m2, sun: 0.05 W/m2. The sun is made practically as a non-factor in this.
Figure: Radiation as a driver among the individual climate factors according to the 5th IPCC report. The sun plays practically no role in the IPCC.
Mojib Latif in an interview with the Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung (NOZ) on September 12, 2012:
NOZ: Mr. Latif, does the sun more likely to contribute to global warming or the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, CO2?
LATIF: It’s a mix of both. It is clear that man has been responsible for more than half of the rise in temperature since the beginning of industrialization.”
Just before that in the Austrian daily Austrian daily ‘Die Presse‘ (DP) on February 9, 2012, he said the following:
DIE PRESSE: Back to the previous warming, 0.8 degrees for 100 years. For [Fritz] Vahrenholt, half comes from the sun. And at the IPCC everything comes from CO2?
LATIF: No, the IPCC never said that. It is very careful and says that about half of the warming is anthropogenic.
DIE PRESSE: Then it says the same as Vahrenholt?
LATIF: Yes, that’s what drives me crazy: An exaggerated threat is built up and then torn up with great relish.”
Again Latif is wrong. Here it’s enough to just look at the Special report of the IPCC concerning the 1.5°C target:
Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times, the observed mean global surface temperature in the decade 2006-2015 was 0.87 °C (probably between 0.75 °C and 0.99 °C) higher than the average for the period 1850-1900 (very high confidence).
Estimated anthropogenic global warming is consistent with the extent of observed warming within ±20% (likely range).”
In other words: According to the IPCC, the total warming observed over the last 150 years is anthropogenic.
Three Latif statements, three times over the line.
Is Latif’s criticism of the Die kalte Sonne book still valid under these circumstances? We would like to talk to Mojib Latif about it personally. After his earlier refusal, is he now perhaps ready for discussion? We hope for good climatic developments in 2019.
We wish all Die kalte Sonne blog readers – and of course Mr. Latif – a Happy New Year!